How good is Washington?

[hurleyfor3]

#5 Pomeroy, 4-0 in the Pac 10. No one talking about them. Everyone poo-poohed the Pac 10 last year, including me, but they did make it into the Sweet 16. Are they the most likely #1 in the West?

[Bluedog]

#5 Pomeroy, 4-0 in the Pac 10. No one talking about them. Everyone poo-poohed the Pac 10 last year, including me, but they did make it into the Sweet 16. Are they the most likely #1 in the West?

I don't think a #1 seed in the West is likely. They're definitely a solid team and would be a tough out for anybody, but they haven't shown the ability to beat really good teams. What's their best win? An OT win against USC? They play with immense speed and have 10 guys that average more than 13 minutes a game. That's a lot of depth that can wear people down. If they get on a roll, they can certainly blow teams out. I've only seen the games they lost to UK and MSU, so perhaps my perspective is skewed, but sometimes I feel they almost try to be too spectacular and get sloppy with the ball.

However, they are definitely a good team and I see them in the 3-6 seed range. I probably wouldn't want them in our bracket as a 4-5; they definitely have the man power to match up with almost anybody. It's just a matter of getting their tempo under control and making shots. They have a fairly balanced attack with Thomas leading the way at 16 ppg, so it's tough to pick your poison. Nobody on their team is ridiculously amazing based on my viewing, just all around a bunch of really solid players that play as a team. So, I see them as definitely a good team that can make some noise, but still unproven and haven't really gotten any super impressive wins yet (although you could almost say the same for us now in regards to lack of super impressive wins at this point with K St and MSU disappointing; but MSU did beat Washington). I think the two games against Arizona will tell us a lot about those two teams.

[NSDukeFan]

#5 Pomeroy, 4-0 in the Pac 10. No one talking about them. Everyone poo-poohed the Pac 10 last year, including me, but they did make it into the Sweet 16. Are they the most likely #1 in the West?

I was surprised to see them rated so highly, and just ahead of UK, despite the head-to-head result. Made me think that T. Jones may have made a poor decision (in terms of how good a team he could have played on) when he switched his allegiance. Of course, only coach Cal can "make" him a pro.

[SCMatt33]

In terms of a tourney profile, I see them kind of like a better version of Maryland. They have pretty much won the games they were supposed to win and lost the ones they were supposed to lose. Like Maryland, they are beasts in margin based computers and less so in wins based because even though they haven't beaten anyone, they came close and crushed everyone else. They don't have any great wins to hang their hats on (the best being Portland and USC), and with limited in conference opportunities, I have a hard time seeing them as a top three seed unless they run the table or go with just one loss. The good news for them is that with a lack of quality teams out west, they should have no problem in grabbing a slot in Denver or Tuscon even with a mediocre seed. Last year, they had a pretty good road to the Sweet 16 with undersized Marquette and a somewhat overrated New Mexico team before getting blow out by West Virginia. I wouldn't be surprised if something similar happened this year with them as a 6 seed instead of an 11.

EDIT: Forgot to mention that losing Abdul Gaddy for the year will be a wild card. They could rally behind the loss and not lose a beat, or really drop into the pack of the Pac-10 without as much depth.

[timmy c]

#5 Pomeroy, 4-0 in the Pac 10. No one talking about them. Everyone poo-poohed the Pac 10 last year, including me, but they did make it into the Sweet 16. Are they the most likely #1 in the West?

They use the RPI. Washington is currently #23 in RPI and 4-3 vs. top 100.

Washington doesn’t look like a #1 seed to me. The #1 seed in the West bracket doesn’t have to reside in the West. If Ohio St. gets the #1 seed in the Midwest, the committee might send Kansas out west; or vice-versa. Not to mention that San Diego St. might make a better case for being the best team on the left coast with their gaudy 17-0 record, RPI #6, and 6-0 vs. top 100.

[Bob Green]

Washington is a solid club though the loss of Abdul Gaddy will hurt them. They have speed and size. Matthew Bryan-Amaning (6'9" 240) and Aziz N'Diaye (7'0" 260) provide the size, while Isiah Thomas and Justin Holiday provide the speed. The Huskies also have experience starting three seniors and a junior.

As far as good wins go, they blitzed Virginia by 43 points in Maui with Mike Scott playing for the Cavaliers. They lost to Michigan State by five points where as Duke beat Michigan State by five points. Duke plays Virginia next Saturday so we will be able to gauge Washington based on results against a second common opponent.

I listen to Seattle Sports radio everyday during my commute to and from work and the airwaves are a buzz with the Huskies chances of running the table in the Pacific 10. I believe that is a bit optimistic but there is no doubt they are the best team in the conference and if they played in the ACC one could make a case they would be the 2nd best team in our conference.

Now having said all that, I doubt they end up a #1 seed, but they will probably be a #2 or #3 seed.

[CDu]

#5 Pomeroy, 4-0 in the Pac 10. No one talking about them. Everyone poo-poohed the Pac 10 last year, including me, but they did make it into the Sweet 16. Are they the most likely #1 in the West?

With 3 losses already and no big wins (their only top-50 win is an overtime win at USC), I definitely wouldn't say they're the most likely #1 seed in the West. I'd guess that the #1 seed in the West will go to whomever the fourth #1 seed is from the Big 10, Big 12, ACC, and Big East. I don't think the Pac-10 will get a #1 seed unless the other conferences absolutely beat up on one another.

Washington is pretty good, but don't get too carried away with their 4-0 start. Those wins include Oregon, Oregon State, UCLA, and USC. So only two of those wins are even remotely meaningful. They're a pretty good team, but they haven't shown yet that they deserve to be in the conversation for a #1 seed at all. I like the Maryland analogy - some close losses to good teams, with no wins over good teams.

[hurleyfor3]

They use the RPI. Washington is currently #23 in RPI and 4-3 vs. top 100.

Yeah, I know. :) I check Pomeroy a lot more than rpi, and the reason I asked is because I was surprised to see Washington sneak into the usual gang of idiots at the top of Pomeroy. Most of us agree Pomeroy is a far better indicator of ability than rpi is, so I'm wondering what's going on with them. The rpi is very heavy with Big East teams (8 of the top 16, vs. 4 of 18 in Pom), so I doubt Washington will move up a whole lot.

Washington's losses are very respectable, and Pomeroy seems to favor teams that don't lay eggs. That seems to be Romer's style at least during the regular season, consistent without being dominating. Going by their record so far I agree they'd at least challenge for second in the ACC.

I think you have to be a LOT better than every other team in your conference to go undefeated in an 18-game schedule. But perhaps surprisingly, Pomeroy's simulations rate the Pac 10 as the second least competitive conference this year (http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/pre-conference_preview_blowout_part_1/). The rest of the Pac 10 isn't a whole lot worse than the rest of the ACC, but I have to believe we're a good bit better than Washington, so undefeated talk for them at this point is silly.

[Greg_Newton]

Interesting that 7-footer Aziz N'Diaye is playing such a significant role or such a good team already. For those who don't remember, he was Carrick Felix's teammate at the College of Southern Idaho last season, and I believe he was the one whom Nate James was originally sent to check out when he noticed Felix.

Washington doesn't have any great wins, but neither does anybody. IMO, they're a standard 3/4-seed that will probably be a 2-seed this year thanks to an incredibly weak field.

[DevilAlumna]

With the usual caveats that anyone familiar with events of Spring 2006 know by heart:


http://www.king5.com/news/local/Seattle-Police-investigate-UW-basketball-player-accused-of-rape---113248229.html

This will probably cause some distraction across the team.

[JasonEvans]

They use the RPI. Washington is currently #23 in RPI and 4-3 vs. top 100.

Actually, a few years ago the NCAA Selection Committee began bringing Sagarin and Pomerroy's rankings into the "decision room" with them. While it is true that the committee still appears to prominently use RPI as key metric in deciding among teams, they are certainly aware of the two most prominent computer rankings as well. The committee is allowed to use anything it wants and I am sure that a team that is highly regarded in the "dork polls" will get some extra attention from the committee.

That said, the best predictor of seeds is often the human polls. A team ranked in the top 10 in the RPI is not guaranteed a top 3 seed, but a team in the top 10 in the human polls almost always gets a top 3 seed.

--Jason "the allegations of rape (http://blogs.seattleweekly.com/dailyweekly/2011/01/uw_basketball_player_accused_of_rape_facebook.php) against a Washington player could be a huge distraction -- bad situation!" Evans

[Bob Green]

Washington improved to 6-1 in the PAC-10 by thumping Arizona, 85-68, in Seattle last night. Isaiah Thomas (22 points, 10 assists, 6 rebounds) is really playing great basketball for the Huskies. A strong case could be made for Washington being the best team on the West Coast. They stubbed their toe at Stanford similar to Duke at FSU but they remain the best team in the PAC-10 conference. San Diego State is undefeated and ranked in the Top 10 but I'm not convinced they are better than Washington.

[burnspbesq]

San Diego State is undefeated and ranked in the Top 10 but I'm not convinced they are better than Washington.

SDSU is better than UW. Kawhi Leonard is why. UW has nobody who could guard him.

Right now, I'd say Duke is the probable number one seed in the Anaheim Regional. Which would be a real shame, since I live ten minutes from the Honda Center.

[Bob Green]

SDSU is better than UW.

Well Ken Pomeroy does not agree. He has Washington ranked at #4 and SDSU at #14. He also predicts a loss for SDSU in their next game on January 26th at #10 BYU. Time will tell.

[SilkyJ]

I watched UW play Cal last weekend in Berkeley and they are definitely legit. They have good balance with strong inside and outside players, as others have pointed out. They can also really shoot it from deep, but don't have to really on the deep shot to get their points.

They are playing excellent ball right now, and definitely project as a 2-3 seed in my mind. As Bob pointed out, their thumping of AZ last night, which should make the NCAA tournament, is definitely a positive sign, but peaking in mid-January isn't what matters, as we all know. Let's see how they're playing in a month before we hand them anything.

[tbyers11]

Well Ken Pomeroy does not agree. He has Washington ranked at #4 and SDSU at #14. He also predicts a loss for SDSU in their next game on January 26th at #10 BYU. Time will tell.

I am not sure about who is better between SDSU and UW because I have only seen SDSU play for a half against UNLV. They are both pretty good though. I think Pomeroy overvalues Washington a bit as the margins in some of their non-con wins were obscene and there is no margin of victory cap in his system.

As for the initial discussion of how good Washington is. I don't think they sniff a #1 seed as they already have 4 losses and will likely drop at least 2 games this season as they have to go on the Arizona trip and have 2 games with Wazzu left. Probably a 2 seed when all is said and done.

I think they are very athletic, like to play at a quick pace and can be a very dangerous foe if they are hitting on all cylinders. However, against a team that can control tempo a bit and force them to play more in the half court (see losses to Mich St, UConn and Texas A&M and even Stanford (although I didn't watch any of that game)) I think they aren't quite as strong. This is not to say that they aren't one of the top 10 in the country but I don't see them being a likely Final Four team because NCAA tourney games tend to become grind-it-out affairs.

[Bob Green]

In the news today:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2014130649_uwmencase05m.html


"After completing a thorough investigation into an allegation that a University of Washington Husky basketball player sexually assaulted a 16-year-old girl, the Seattle Police Department referred the matter to the King County Prosecutor's Office after concluding that there was insufficient evidence to support criminal charges," the prosecutor's office said in a written statement in regard to any felony charges. "The King County Prosecutor's Office has conducted its own review and has reached the same conclusion."

The case will now be referred to the City Attorneys Office to determine if misdemeanor charges of providing alcohol to minors will be pursued.

Due to charges not being filed, the identity of the player has not been released.

[tommy]

This also in from today's news:

Oregon State 68
Washington 56.

That's Oregon State, 9-12 overall, 4-6 in the mighty Pac-10.

This on the heels of

Washington State 87
Washington 80

Washington State, 5-5 in the league, followed that up with a 69-43 loss to terrible Oregon.

That league stinks.