Why can't we have a 9 man rotation?

[Stratrat]

I understand that Coach K knows what is best. Period.
What I would like is for someone to explain to me why Tyler can't put in some relief minutes since he is such a solid player. Nolan can go 40 minutes all year I guess but wouldn't he better with a little rest? Running the offense and then being the lock down defensive key is a tough job. Tyler has shown that he doesn't make mistakes and is very good defensively.
Josh is a player that I think we NEED to log some minutes because of his energy and that mid range jumper is deadly accurate.
We still have a team intact that can run and gun, play full court pressure defense and be who we all want to see. What am I missing?
If Kyrie comes back we could be a ten man rotation with some experience. On the other hand, another injury to someone in our 7 man rotation would be devestating.
I am certainly not complaining, I just don't understand

[SCMatt33]

I understand that Coach K knows what is best. Period.
What I would like is for someone to explain to me why Tyler can't put in some relief minutes since he is such a solid player. Nolan can go 40 minutes all year I guess but wouldn't he better with a little rest? Running the offense and then being the lock down defensive key is a tough job. Tyler has shown that he doesn't make mistakes and is very good defensively.
Josh is a player that I think we NEED to log some minutes because of his energy and that mid range jumper is deadly accurate.
We still have a team intact that can run and gun, play full court pressure defense and be who we all want to see. What am I missing?
If Kyrie comes back we could be a ten man rotation with some experience. On the other hand, another injury to someone in our 7 man rotation would be devestating.
I am certainly not complaining, I just don't understand

They have. They got the type of minutes you describe during the early season, but now is where the team needs to tighten up. If you take Nolan off the court for even a few minutes last night, that game gets pretty close. Josh and Tyler are solid, but there is a noticeable drop-off from the starters to them. When it comes to the tough games, you need to keep the best players on the court.

[Johnboy]

We still have a team intact that can run and gun, play full court pressure defense and be who we all want to see. What am I missing?
If Kyrie comes back we could be a ten man rotation with some experience. On the other hand, another injury to someone in our 7 man rotation would be devestating.
I am certainly not complaining, I just don't understand

I think Coach K didn't like the match ups presented by Miami for Josh and Tyler, but I expect to see them in other games. Also, Coach K may have wanted to work the top 7 for whatever reason. If we're not deep, Coach K has sometimes in the past wanted his big dogs to know how to play tired. Maybe he wanted more pt for the lineups he worked last night. Regardless, as I said above, i expect those guys to get if the match ups are favorable.

[OldPhiKap]

I love our freshmen class.

They will get plenty of minutes before they leave.

No worries.

[Greg_Newton]

Normally I'm in your camp, but Tyler and Josh are a significant drop off from our top seven at this point - they need some seasoning. That's not as much a knock on them as it is an indication of how good our top seven is.

Also, it's important to note that we basically have seven starters - all of them might play 20+ minutes on a given night, regardless of who we're playing. That means we basically have as much depth as another team who plays 3-4 guys 10-15 minutes off the bench.

[Duvall]

Normally I'm in your camp, but Tyler and Josh are a significant drop off from our top seven at this point - they need some seasoning. That's not as much a knock on them as it is an indication of how good our top seven is.

Also, it's important to note that we basically have seven starters - all of them might play 20+ minutes on a given night, regardless of who we're playing. That means we basically have as much depth as another team who plays 3-4 guys 10-15 minutes off the bench.

It's also important to note that the five rotation guys - Curry, Dawkins, Kelly and the Plumlees - also need seasoning, and need it right away.

[Kedsy]

If Kyrie comes back we could be a ten man rotation with some experience.

The thing is, I don't think we could. In a tight game there really aren't enough minutes to go around for ten guys. Nine, maybe, but not ten.


On the other hand, another injury to someone in our 7 man rotation would be devestating.

The other thing is, if we had another injury, then Josh and/or Tyler would step in and we could still run a 7 man rotation (or maybe 8). Allowing them to be overmatched (assuming that's what K thinks would happen) would not help prepare them for a meaningful role in the future, and might be detrimental.

Learning and growing in practice for I don't know how many hours a day is much more helpful than a few minutes in a game like last night's. Remember Casey Sanders in 2001? Or Elliot Williams in 2009? They both stepped in to major roles after playing very little in conference games to that point. Elliot Williams played 3 minutes or less in 5 of the first 7 conference games, and 7 minutes in one of the others, yet he was able to start and play 30+ minutes in each of the last 6 conference games, and start every game of the ACC and NCAA tournaments. Casey Sanders played 6 minutes or less in 5 of the first 7 conference games (including 1 min, 2 mins, and 4 mins), yet was able to start the last 10 games of the championship run after Carlos Boozer was injured.

So based on history, if we have another injury (heaven forbid) I'm not worried that Josh and Tyler won't be ready to step up.

[tommy]

I understand that Coach K knows what is best. Period.
What I would like is for someone to explain to me why Tyler can't put in some relief minutes since he is such a solid player. Nolan can go 40 minutes all year I guess but wouldn't he better with a little rest? Running the offense and then being the lock down defensive key is a tough job. Tyler has shown that he doesn't make mistakes and is very good defensively.
Josh is a player that I think we NEED to log some minutes because of his energy and that mid range jumper is deadly accurate.
We still have a team intact that can run and gun, play full court pressure defense and be who we all want to see. What am I missing?
If Kyrie comes back we could be a ten man rotation with some experience. On the other hand, another injury to someone in our 7 man rotation would be devestating.
I am certainly not complaining, I just don't understand

Come on, man. This same, same, same discussion has to be held on these boards every single year?

K has made it abundantly clear over a long and fabulously successful career that if guys earn playing time by their performance in practice, they will get playing time, no matter their class. If they don't, they won't. He will go with a deeper rotation if enough guys earn time. If not, he'll go with a shorter rotation. He has been hugely successful both ways.

There is nothing wrong with a 7 man rotation. Many coaches go no deeper, no matter what. Al McGuire always said that anytime you have to go deeper than your seventh man, it's "a Dunkirk."

As for your assertions about Tyler and Josh, they are without basis. Josh's mid-range jumper is "deadly accurate?" Really? It may turn out to be. But at this point he's shooting 41% for the year from the field. We NEED his energy? Have you noticed a lack of energy from the guys playing regular minutes? Not a chance.

Tyler is "such a solid player?" He may turn out to be, but there is no evidence of that at this point. He has averaged 7.7 minutes per game thus far, an average that is skewed upwards by 12 to 15 minutes per game against very weak teams like Colgate, Miami (Ohio) and UNCG. In our five toughest games -- Marquette, Kansas State, Michigan State, Butler, and Miami (Fla.) he has logged a total of 3 minutes of garbage time. He has scored three baskets so far in his Duke career.

The rotation is fine, and will be even better when Kyrie is back. Just leave it at that. Josh's and Tyler's times will come.

[gam7]

I understand that Coach K knows what is best. Period.
What I would like is for someone to explain to me why Tyler can't put in some relief minutes since he is such a solid player. Nolan can go 40 minutes all year I guess but wouldn't he better with a little rest? Running the offense and then being the lock down defensive key is a tough job. Tyler has shown that he doesn't make mistakes and is very good defensively.
Josh is a player that I think we NEED to log some minutes because of his energy and that mid range jumper is deadly accurate.
We still have a team intact that can run and gun, play full court pressure defense and be who we all want to see. What am I missing?
If Kyrie comes back we could be a ten man rotation with some experience. On the other hand, another injury to someone in our 7 man rotation would be devestating.
I am certainly not complaining, I just don't understand

In the late '90s, Coach K seemed to experiment with deeper rotations, and in particular, mass, five-for-five substitutions. We were extremely talented and deep during that period, but the mass substitutions (aside from the short-lived intimidation factor) really interrupted any rhythm and flow and we just weren't as good as we would have hoped (although I don't believe we have +/- numbers for those years, so it's difficult to say with statistical back-up that this was the case). My personal belief is that Coach K's tendency to trim the rotation fairly dramatically as the season progresses stems from his experience with the team during the late '90s.

[sagegrouse]

I understand that Coach K knows what is best. Period.
What I would like is for someone to explain to me why Tyler can't put in some relief minutes since he is such a solid player. Nolan can go 40 minutes all year I guess but wouldn't he better with a little rest? Running the offense and then being the lock down defensive key is a tough job. Tyler has shown that he doesn't make mistakes and is very good defensively.
Josh is a player that I think we NEED to log some minutes because of his energy and that mid range jumper is deadly accurate.
We still have a team intact that can run and gun, play full court pressure defense and be who we all want to see. What am I missing?
If Kyrie comes back we could be a ten man rotation with some experience. On the other hand, another injury to someone in our 7 man rotation would be devestating.
I am certainly not complaining, I just don't understand

It is a really good question, and I expect the answer is something like, "It takes a lot of work in both practice and games to get a given set of five players to play really well as a team. Seven or eight works, but nine is really hard."

The other answer is, of course, if you want to see a nine-man rotation and its implications, look at UNC and Ol'Roy's substitution pattern.

sagegrouse

[A-Tex Devil]

I used to be in the "why is our bench so short" camp. But the combination of Coach K's success with short benches and watching a team like 2009-2010 Texas, who was 11 deep at points last year, fall off a cliff because of chemistry issues, in K I trust.

Now, do I want Kyle and Nolan playing 40 minutes in every ACC game? No. But I already expected they'd be averaging ~35 even with Kyrie. And if Curry can stay on the floor, then that allows those guys o sit some as well.

But K's method is proven. I won't criticize

[Devilsfan]

Hoping for an eight man rotation with Kyrie, although I love Josh's game.

[NashvilleDevil]

I always thought the 1st Duke loss was when this thread starts?

[mkline09]

I always thought the 1st Duke loss was when this thread starts?

This is true but after a National Championship year the standards increase.

[OldPhiKap]

The other answer is, of course, if you want to see a nine-man rotation and its implications, look at UNC and Ol'Roy's substitution pattern.

sagegrouse

I don't go over to IC very often, but the #1 complaint about Roy over there is his insane substitution patterns. Your point is spot-on. After Nolan goes nuts for a few minutes, are we really going to pull him and sit him on the bench for 4 minutes?

As I said before I really like our freshman class. Their time will come, perhaps even later in the year as the game slows down for them and they make the jump to the next level. But I'm not sure who you'd pull off the floor right now, and the team needs game time to work on the sans-Kyrie lineups as is.

[dukelifer]

I understand that Coach K knows what is best. Period.
What I would like is for someone to explain to me why Tyler can't put in some relief minutes since he is such a solid player. Nolan can go 40 minutes all year I guess but wouldn't he better with a little rest? Running the offense and then being the lock down defensive key is a tough job. Tyler has shown that he doesn't make mistakes and is very good defensively.
Josh is a player that I think we NEED to log some minutes because of his energy and that mid range jumper is deadly accurate.
We still have a team intact that can run and gun, play full court pressure defense and be who we all want to see. What am I missing?
If Kyrie comes back we could be a ten man rotation with some experience. On the other hand, another injury to someone in our 7 man rotation would be devestating.
I am certainly not complaining, I just don't understand

I doubt there will be a 9 man rotation this year- 8 for sure if Kyrie comes back. But K coaches by feel and doesn't pull guys just so others can play or get experience. Thornton and Hairston will have their moments this year- because of foul trouble, matchups or an injury. Both have shown an ability to be real contributors.

[dukeballboy88]

I think your gona see more shooting nights like the miami game from Kyle if he has to play 40 minutes and alot of minutes at the 4 position.

[OldPhiKap]

I think your gona see more shooting nights like the miami game from Kyle if he has to play 40 minutes and alot of minutes at the 4 position.

I think I'd love to see the rebounds, defense and leadership we'd get if Kyle would play 40 minutes every night.

Which, of course, he may do next year. Professionals play, what, 4 games a week with insane travel thrown in?

But, at Duke, I think he'll be fine.

[superdave]

It's also important to note that the five rotation guys - Curry, Dawkins, Kelly and the Plumlees - also need seasoning, and need it right away.

Coach K said earlier this season that there are no wasted minutes because 10 guys are prepared to play. He also said it does not make a whole lot of sense to limit Kyle and Nolan's minutes because your ceiling as a team gets lower with two All Americans on the bench. But with a long tv timetout every 4 minutes and their conditioning, it wont be a problem.

Ryan got about 3-5 minutes per game last year down the stretch. But he earned it in practice because he picked up our defensive schemes well. I could see either Tyler or Josh being in that position, but I dont know anything about how they are practicing.

In closing, I really dont see this as an issue. We've got as much talent in our 7 man rotation as we've had since maybe 1999, so I feel gooooood. Hopefully it becomes as 8 man rotation again soon.

[superdave]

Looks like in the old days, no one came out of the game:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/mp_per_g_season.html

How exactly did Wilt average 48.52 minutes in a 48 minute game? They must have played 8-9 OT games. Iverson would be your modern day Iron Man. And none of our Duke guys will touch the punishment he went through at 160 lbs.

[gotoguy]

Coach K said earlier this season that there are no wasted minutes because 10 guys are prepared to play. He also said it does not make a whole lot of sense to limit Kyle and Nolan's minutes because your ceiling as a team gets lower with two All Americans on the bench. But with a long tv timetout every 4 minutes and their conditioning, it wont be a problem.

Ryan got about 3-5 minutes per game last year down the stretch. But he earned it in practice because he picked up our defensive schemes well. I could see either Tyler or Josh being in that position, but I dont know anything about how they are practicing.

In closing, I really dont see this as an issue. We've got as much talent in our 7 man rotation as we've had since maybe 1999, so I feel gooooood. Hopefully it becomes as 8 man rotation again soon.

If Elton Brand was in this current rotation with a healthy KI we could compete in the NBA!

[superdave]

I think your gona see more shooting nights like the miami game from Kyle if he has to play 40 minutes and alot of minutes at the 4 position.

I think this is a function of running through screens to get shots. You dont always run off two screens through the lane in a clean manner - you get bumped, chipped, elbowed, grabbed and knocked down. Besides rebounding (at the 4 position you mentioned) and going after loose balls, running through screens seems to be the best way to get knocked around. And Kyle does a lot of it, but it has nothing to do with minutes played. But the screens are a function of Kyrie - the playmaker - having his foot in a cast.

[Saratoga2]

Right now, I think that Seth needs to get solid minutes. He must have shown to the coaches in practice that he can handle the point, which gives Nolan more time at the off guard where he flourishes. Seth will have solid scoring games along the way and that will be much needed if Kyrie doesn't make it back.

So we clearly need to have Nolan and Kyle on the floor, especially if the game is tight. We need Dawkins to get his time as he is currently becoming the 3rd scoring option and is playing solid defense. With Curry also getting solid minutes, that leaves little for Thornton. In games with favorable matchups, I believe coach K will play Tyler, as he is a solid ball handler and plays aggressive defense.

In the case of the bigs, Ryan is clearly gaining confidence and has compared favorably to Mason as of late. Miles is playing with fire, if not finesse and Mason has so much to offer, he has to get minutes. Josh has shown to me that his understanding of the defense needs to improve. On the other hand, he does have a mid range jumper and a scoring mentality. His time will probably be limited in the competitive games.

[JasonEvans]

I think your gona see more shooting nights like the miami game from Kyle if he has to play 40 minutes and alot of minutes at the 4 position.

Sigh.
Stay calm, Jason... Deep breaths...

Can I ask what there is about Kyle's history that would lead you to say that? Are you aware that Kyle played 38+ minutes in 6 of our final 8 games last year and he was as good a shooter during those games as he has been at any point in his career.

Kyle has had worse shooting nights than this earlier this year. For example, he went 3-11 against Miami (OH) and 5-16 versus Colgate. He played less than 30 minutes in each of those games. Perhaps there is no correlation whatsoever between minutes played and shooting percentages (especially early in the season when games are spaced out a lot).

And your comment about him playing "the 4" puzzles me too. MP1, MP2, and RK played 73 total minutes against Miami, leaving Kyle to play 17 minutes of the game "at the 4." IIRC, Duke was in a slow-down, delay kind of mode in the final 5 minutes of the game and had Kyle at the 4 to get an extra ballhandler/FT shooter on the floor. His minutes at the 4 were somewhat inflated by that. If anything, the loss of Kyrie has lessened the need to play Kyle at the 4 (as if Duke even has numbered positions) as it has opened more minutes for Seth and Andre.

Just interested in hearing you defend your comment with stats and/or defensible observations.

--Jason "FYI-- Coach K said in his post-game newser that playing 40 minutes was no big deal for Kyle and Nolan-- what matters in how hard they practice between games and K is aware of how to control that" Evans

[Indoor66]

Looks like in the old days, no one came out of the game:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/mp_per_g_season.html

How exactly did Wilt average 48.52 minutes in a 48 minute game? They must have played 8-9 OT games. Iverson would be your modern day Iron Man. And none of our Duke guys will touch the punishment he went through at 160 lbs.

Yeah, and in the 72-73 season he averaged 43.2 minutes and he was 36-37 years old (born in 1936)! It is too difficult to play 35+ minutes for 35 games a year - yeah, really.

[Neals384]

I understand that Coach K knows what is best. Period.
Josh is a player that I think we NEED to log some minutes because of his energy and that mid range jumper is deadly accurate.


I love Josh's game and think he's going to be terrific. But so far this season he is averaging one personal every five minutes. Against St. Louis he had 4 personals in 15 minutes. Against UNCG he had 4 personals in 16 minutes.

[Lord Ash]

One personal every five minutes isn't that bad, is it? I mean, that is 25 minutes of time before he fouls out, and he would NEVER get that much time.

I don't think Tyler will get a ton of floor time, but given the quality of our guards, that is not too crazy... he is not going to get minutes over Nolan, Seth, or Dre right now.

I do think Josh could be a little useful... he is not as big as many ACC "4s" but he does have good hands and has a nice "feel" for the game, it seems... I would like to see what he could do in a lineup with Nolan, Dre, Kyle, Josh, and Miles/Mason/Ryan.

[TampaDuke]

From my observation, FWIW, given Duke's teamwork-oriented defensive schemes, I would rather that we have the Top 7 work on their defensive cohesiveness than working in more minutes for Tyler and Josh at this point.

There still appear to be too many defensive breakdowns from our Top 7 with the helpside D, switching D, and team defensive rebounding, but it is improving with each game and I expect it will continue. I fear that changing current playing time scenarios may disrupt this.

Just my speculation, but I would guess that the staff prefers that the 8th and 9th (and beyond) substitutes develop their defensive prowess in practice while using game time for the higher priority objective of getting paylers 1-7 on the same page defensively (and offensively as well).

[smcook313]

I understand that Coach K knows what is best. Period.
What I would like is for someone to explain to me why Tyler can't put in some relief minutes since he is such a solid player. Nolan can go 40 minutes all year I guess but wouldn't he better with a little rest? Running the offense and then being the lock down defensive key is a tough job. Tyler has shown that he doesn't make mistakes and is very good defensively.
Josh is a player that I think we NEED to log some minutes because of his energy and that mid range jumper is deadly accurate.
We still have a team intact that can run and gun, play full court pressure defense and be who we all want to see. What am I missing?
If Kyrie comes back we could be a ten man rotation with some experience. On the other hand, another injury to someone in our 7 man rotation would be devestating.
I am certainly not complaining, I just don't understand


Tyler is a really smart player! He is the kind of kid that makes your program better from every aspect. He will continue to get better and better and its always exciting to know you have that 4year player in your program....With that being said, Coach K did the right thing on Sunday night. To me, Thorton would have been burned out there by Durand. He isnt quite ready for that sort of tempo. The game is still too fast for him and coach knows this. Plus, as good as Tyler has been, we needed scorers on the court and Tyler hasn't shown that part of his game yet. He has it, just hasnt needed to use it...so unselfish. Josh, on the other hand, will get some minutes coming up here. He needs to put on some weight before he'll be able to bang with the big boys but he is silky. Pretty mid range game. Neither of these 2 really need to be out on the court for these type of games...If anybody, Josh should get into the rotation. He is a change of pace guy that will be helpful against teams that dont have super studs down low. Against Maryland...? No, he cant hang but against Wake, GT, or Virginia.. I think he plays pretty well.

I am not saying that Josh is better than Tyler or anything like that, I am just saying the PG position can be a bit quicker than post. Especially, when you are going up the guards that the ACC puts on the court. Both are fantastic players and I am so glad to have them on our team. They will mature as the season does and will get in when the moment calls for it. Until then, I would have to say that I have full confidence that Coach K knows what he is doing :cool: Nice job against Miami guys!! Great win!!

[4decadedukie]

It is a really good question, and I expect the answer is something like, "It takes a lot of work in both practice and games to get a given set of five players to play really well as a team. Seven or eight works, but nine is really hard."

sagegrouse

I strongly agree with my friend Sage, and will slightly elaborate by adding one thought: COMMUNICATIONS. Good teams communicate on offense -- and especially on defense -- with excellence. It is my observations that the best teams continuously improve in this critical area, so by the "tournament season" much of their coordination and communications are virtually instinctive. Our 2009-2010 team was absolutely outstanding in this key skill; I believe it was a major element in winning the National Championship.

Obviously, that extreme level of almost-instinctive coordination, cooperation, and communications becomes more difficult as the likely number of player “communications interfaces” increases (I respectfully suggest a non-linear relationship exists). For this reason, increasing the "standard rotation" beyond eight may be counterproductive, notwithstanding the "fresh legs" that would confront tired opponents in the last ten of fifteen minutes of highly contested games.

This is "just a thought" for your consideration . . .

[DevilWearsPrada]

I like to see all the scholorship players log minutes. But I realize in big games, the best players must be on the court. So, since Coach K is the Coach, he knows best!!! That's why he is the Coach, and King of the Court!!!

Josh and Tyler will get their minutes. Just not every game.

Miami game was just so physical, needed the best men in the game. And with the controversial officiating, Duke couldn't chance having less seasoned players in the games, for turnovers and unnecessary fouls.

Whatever Coach K does...... I am on his bus, train, team.....

And as always,
Go Duke!!

[BD80]

The goal is to win a championship this year.

Silly Coach thinks that the best chance of winning a particular game is by having his best players in the game as much as possible. In the later rounds of the tourney, Coach will be playing his best players for close to 40 minutes each game. Is it best that they be accustomed to playing only 30 minutes per game?

Odds are that only seven of the current players (Kyrie will make 8) will get into meaningful action after the first weekend of the tourney. Getting Ty and Josh experience is not nearly as important as getting the seven core players to play the best basketball that they can play as a team.

[MChambers]

One personal every five minutes isn't that bad, is it? I mean, that is 25 minutes of time before he fouls out, and he would NEVER get that much time.

Actually, it's not very good, because it represents bad defense. You're putting the other team on the line unnecessarily. I believe it was Mr. Battier who observed that the worst defensive result was a foul.

[sagegrouse]

Sigh.
Stay calm, Jason... Deep breaths...

And your comment about him playing "the 4" puzzles me too. MP1, MP2, and RK played 73 total minutes against Miami, leaving Kyle to play 17 minutes of the game "at the 4." IIRC, Duke was in a slow-down, delay kind of mode in the final 5 minutes of the game and had Kyle at the 4 to get an extra ballhandler/FT shooter on the floor. His minutes at the 4 were somewhat inflated by that. If anything, the loss of Kyrie has lessened the need to play Kyle at the 4 (as if Duke even has numbered positions) as it has opened more minutes for Seth and Andre.



Actually, from your data Kyle played only seven minutes at the 4 (or with only one big on the court). There are 80 minutes for two front court positions and 73 of them were taken by the aforementioned bigs.

I looked at the season stats. The guards are playing 102 mins. per game. The bigs are playing 66. Kyle is playing 32. (Adds to 200 -- must be right.) Which means that, making some huge assumptions (never using one or four guards or never using zero or three bigs), just over one-half the time Duke is playing three guards (22 mins. per game). And, of course, eight of those mins. are when Kyle is on the bench. Ergo, Kyle is playing the 4 position 14 mins. per game.

Thinking about it further, the above analysis is flawed: the early season included a number of games where everyone seemed to get 15-25 mins. per game and, no doubt, included some unexpected combinations. The Miami game, where it appeared that Kyle played only seven out of 40 mins. with just one big guy on the court, may be more typical. We can keep track of the mins. going forward.

sagegrouse
'I can't actually make sense of what I've written, so good luck'

[Kedsy]

I think your gona see more shooting nights like the miami game from Kyle if he has to play 40 minutes and alot of minutes at the 4 position.

Kyle only played the "4" for 7 minutes against Miami. Do you consider that a lot?

[Kedsy]

And your comment about him playing "the 4" puzzles me too. MP1, MP2, and RK played 73 total minutes against Miami, leaving Kyle to play 17 minutes of the game "at the 4."


Actually, from your data Kyle played only seven minutes at the 4 (or with only one big on the court). There are 80 minutes for two front court positions and 73 of them were taken by the aforementioned bigs.

I looked at the season stats. The guards are playing 102 mins. per game. The bigs are playing 66. Kyle is playing 32. (Adds to 200 -- must be right.) Which means that, making some huge assumptions (never using one or four guards or never using zero or three bigs), just over one-half the time Duke is playing three guards (22 mins. per game). And, of course, eight of those mins. are when Kyle is on the bench. Ergo, Kyle is playing the 4 position 14 mins. per game.

Thinking about it further, the above analysis is flawed: the early season included a number of games where everyone seemed to get 15-25 mins. per game and, no doubt, included some unexpected combinations. The Miami game, where it appeared that Kyle played only seven out of 40 mins. with just one big guy on the court, may be more typical. We can keep track of the mins. going forward.

sagegrouse
'I can't actually make sense of what I've written, so good luck'

Sage is right. Kyle only played 7 minutes at the 4 against Miami.

I have been keeping track of the minutes, although I apologize for not posting them in the big vs. small thread since Kyrie went down. With Kyrie on the active roster, Kyle played the "4" a little more than 16 minutes a game. In the five games since Kyrie has been out, he has played the "4" for 5, 3, 8, 5, and 7 minutes, an average of 5.6 minutes a game.

[hq2]

Actually, this is a little surprising. Before Kyrie went down, the issue was too few minutes to go around, not too many. But, a 7 man rotation should work; it has before, and did so pretty well in 2001 when we won it all. However, they still need to give Nolan and Kyle some more rest. One way to do that would be to give Andre (whose minutes are now up in the 30 range) a few minutes at 3 to spell Kyle, if they don't think Josh is up to it yet. Nolan is tougher to replace, as Seth doesn't drive well, so
the bigs don't get the ball when he isn't in there. If we could get maybe 5 minutes or so from Tyler, that might be enough.

[weezie]

Also, it's important to note that we basically have seven starters - all of them might play 20+ minutes on a given night, regardless of who we're playing. That means we basically have as much depth as another team who plays 3-4 guys 10-15 minutes off the bench.

Indeed. We're darned lucky to have these problems.

Man, the things some people (not you Greg Newton) find to worry about....:confused:

[OldPhiKap]

Sigh.
Stay calm, Jason... Deep breaths...

Can I ask what there is about Kyle's history that would lead you to say that? Are you aware that Kyle played 38+ minutes in 6 of our final 8 games last year and he was as good a shooter during those games as he has been at any point in his career.

Kyle has had worse shooting nights than this earlier this year. For example, he went 3-11 against Miami (OH) and 5-16 versus Colgate. He played less than 30 minutes in each of those games. Perhaps there is no correlation whatsoever between minutes played and shooting percentages (especially early in the season when games are spaced out a lot).

And your comment about him playing "the 4" puzzles me too. MP1, MP2, and RK played 73 total minutes against Miami, leaving Kyle to play 17 minutes of the game "at the 4." IIRC, Duke was in a slow-down, delay kind of mode in the final 5 minutes of the game and had Kyle at the 4 to get an extra ballhandler/FT shooter on the floor. His minutes at the 4 were somewhat inflated by that. If anything, the loss of Kyrie has lessened the need to play Kyle at the 4 (as if Duke even has numbered positions) as it has opened more minutes for Seth and Andre.

Just interested in hearing you defend your comment with stats and/or defensible observations.

--Jason "FYI-- Coach K said in his post-game newser that playing 40 minutes was no big deal for Kyle and Nolan-- what matters in how hard they practice between games and K is aware of how to control that" Evans

STOP

USING

FACTS.


They only get in the way of the narrative.

K can't rotate players, we get worn out by March, we lose early in the tournament. The rest of the nation should relax, because we ain't a threat. Don't even worry about us when we're in your bracket.

(Which, of course, the NCAA is currently plotting to give us the easiest path to the championship game again).

[elvis14]

Although I hate to contribute to yet another discussion on minutes, I'll add my $.02. The only thing that bothered me about the Miami game was that Nolan and Kyle went the full 40 minutes. I understand that K is going to play his best players a lot of minutes against really good teams (Miami?). At the same time I've often felt that even a couple of minutes on the bench can help a player not just catch his breath (which may not even be necessary) but to get a different feel or perspective for what's going on real time on the court. It can be a mental break too. Sometimes this can jumpstart a player to finishing a game strong. Of course a good charging call and help with that too :-)

Happy New Year everyone!

[tele]

Although I hate to contribute to yet another discussion on minutes, I'll add my $.02. The only thing that bothered me about the Miami game was that Nolan and Kyle went the full 40 minutes. I understand that K is going to play his best players a lot of minutes against really good teams (Miami?). At the same time I've often felt that even a couple of minutes on the bench can help a player not just catch his breath (which may not even be necessary) but to get a different feel or perspective for what's going on real time on the court. It can be a mental break too. Sometimes this can jumpstart a player to finishing a game strong. Of course a good charging call and help with that too :-)

Happy New Year everyone!

Happy New year to you too, and DBR Duke fans everywhere!!

Also, I agree about the 40 minutes a game question too. I doubt Coach K would be playing Kyle and Nolan a full forty if Kyrie hadn't been injured. They weren't playing forty minutes before the injury, and they didn't play that many minutes all of last season? Also, if Coach K has to compensate for playing Nolan and Kyle that many minutes by changing practices, then I would humbly submit that this is no small change (this is a Coach who has saved every one of his practice plans). Not only does it affect how those two players practice but it also affects their younger teammates who might benefit from a more normal practice regime for their development.

I agree that a couple of minutes rest here and there can help a player, especially in a close game. It might not show up in summary stats but it might show in a reach foul here or a block call instead of a charge there, or a short jumper. I can remember Coach K trying to get key players a little extra rest by substituting for them just before or after tv timeouts, so they'd get a little longer break. Although as I recall this was done in close games, and maybe you don't need to do this so much when you are up by a dozen or so.

That said, I don't think Kyle and Nolan playing 40 minutes in the Miami game is something to worry about. My guess is that Duke probably would have still won that game if they'd sat for a couple of minutes. That is why I find it interesting that Coach K played them the full forty minutes. Perhaps this was done in part to help develop the team, absent Kyrie, and get the other 5 players who played more experience in game situations with the full "white" team for the tough conference games ahead.

[mkirsh]

Wouldn't worry about the bench too much, Coach K normally runs a very tight rotation for the first ACC game. The 54 minutes from the bench against Miami was more than our 21 point win over Clemson in 2009 (35), the same as our 25 point win over over Va Tech in 2008 (54), similar to our 2 point loss to Va Tech in 2006 (57, but with 25 extra overtime minutes available), more than our 18 point win over Wake in 2005 (47). The only outlier in the past 5 years was 74 bench minutes in a 22 point win over UVA in 2007, with Jon Scheyer getting 27 of those of the bench.

If the argument is not about starters minutes but about player development, you can argue a 7 man rotation with 2 subs getting 27 minutes each is a much shorter bench than going 10 deep with 2 subs getting 20 each and 3 subs getting 4 each, but I'm not sure that 4 minutes is enough to 1) make much contribution, or 2) get much true "game experience" but I recognize it as a debatable point.

[dukeimac]

Yup, I'm just as concerned as all of you. I can't understand why this coach does not take into consideration just how important this teams player rotation is to its fan base. I just don't understand what he could possibly be thinking of. After all, those of us who know better know this from experience. I'm sure you are all like me, we've coached our 6th graders basketball team to the city title and we should know exactly what it takes to win it all and how to manage a team and this coach acts like he has no clue. Maybe Duke should implement a rule that every player gets equal time.

Some day, I hope those who raise such concerns or questions like this become supervisors and you have some staffer questioning every decision you make. Making your life hell. And when you turn to this young person and say to them "you have no clue, you don't know what your talking about, there are things to consider that you don't know about," I hope you sit back in that comfortable chair and say to yourself, "maybe I didn't know what Coach K knew!"

In Coach K I trust, not some person who hasn't even run a middle school program!

[OldPhiKap]

Yup, I'm just as concerned as all of you. I can't understand why this coach does not take into consideration just how important this teams player rotation is to its fan base. I just don't understand what he could possibly be thinking of. After all, those of us who know better know this from experience. I'm sure you are all like me, we've coached our 6th graders basketball team to the city title and we should know exactly what it takes to win it all and how to manage a team and this coach acts like he has no clue. Maybe Duke should implement a rule that every player gets equal time.

Some day, I hope those who raise such concerns or questions like this become supervisors and you have some staffer questioning every decision you make. Making your life hell. And when you turn to this young person and say to them "you have no clue, you don't know what your talking about, there are things to consider that you don't know about," I hope you sit back in that comfortable chair and say to yourself, "maybe I didn't know what Coach K knew!"

In Coach K I trust, not some person who hasn't even run a middle school program!

Are you kidding?!? This so-called "Coach K" has only won 801 games.

Get back to me when he does something worthwhile, like passing Knight.

Until then, I'm not convinced.

[Bob Green]

In this ACC Sports Journal audio intervie (http://www.accsports.com/blogs/david-glenn/201101039497/david-glenn-chats-with-chris-collins-.php)w, linked on the front page of DBR, Dave Glenn ask Chris Collins about the short rotation against Miami. Collins replies [paraphrasing], the staff is confident all nine scholarship players can contribute and they will play in future games. Against Miami Nolan Smith was on a roll so they didn't want to remove him from the game and Kyle is a player who has demonstrated throughout his career he is capable of playing heavy minutes. The staff substitutes by feel and never goes into a game saying they are only going to play seven players or they definitely going to play nine players, etc.

The audio clip is 12 minutes long and is a good listen so I recommend it to anyone interested in this topic.

[Stratrat]

Yup, I'm just as concerned as all of you. I can't understand why this coach does not take into consideration just how important this teams player rotation is to its fan base. I just don't understand what he could possibly be thinking of. After all, those of us who know better know this from experience. I'm sure you are all like me, we've coached our 6th graders basketball team to the city title and we should know exactly what it takes to win it all and how to manage a team and this coach acts like he has no clue. Maybe Duke should implement a rule that every player gets equal time.

Some day, I hope those who raise such concerns or questions like this become supervisors and you have some staffer questioning every decision you make. Making your life hell. And when you turn to this young person and say to them "you have no clue, you don't know what your talking about, there are things to consider that you don't know about," I hope you sit back in that comfortable chair and say to yourself, "maybe I didn't know what Coach K knew!"

In Coach K I trust, not some person who hasn't even run a middle school program!

Easy now - we are all on the same team. I've been a Duke fanatic for an embarassingly long time. ( ever heard of Jay Buckley or Hack Tyson? ) I was speaking out loud and plainly said I didn't understand. My comments generated some cohesive thoughts that were great to read. Coach Collin's remarks after the game pulled this thought process all together.
I certainly watched Coach work a masterpiece last year as did we all. I also watched JJ crash and burn twice so I was just sayin. Just think tanking some thoughts amongst us Duke fans for our own edification and/ or thought processes.
Kind of hateful and silly to believe that these thoughts were meant for Coach K to ponder and reconsider his position. Hehe - come on man.
However - I am available to debate the merits of a deep bench that has been developed all year and is ready for the big end game versus a 7 man rotation.

[dukeballboy88]

Sigh.
Stay calm, Jason... Deep breaths...

Can I ask what there is about Kyle's history that would lead you to say that? Are you aware that Kyle played 38+ minutes in 6 of our final 8 games last year and he was as good a shooter during those games as he has been at any point in his career.

Kyle has had worse shooting nights than this earlier this year. For example, he went 3-11 against Miami (OH) and 5-16 versus Colgate. He played less than 30 minutes in each of those games. Perhaps there is no correlation whatsoever between minutes played and shooting percentages (especially early in the season when games are spaced out a lot).

And your comment about him playing "the 4" puzzles me too. MP1, MP2, and RK played 73 total minutes against Miami, leaving Kyle to play 17 minutes of the game "at the 4." IIRC, Duke was in a slow-down, delay kind of mode in the final 5 minutes of the game and had Kyle at the 4 to get an extra ballhandler/FT shooter on the floor. His minutes at the 4 were somewhat inflated by that. If anything, the loss of Kyrie has lessened the need to play Kyle at the 4 (as if Duke even has numbered positions) as it has opened more minutes for Seth and Andre.

Just interested in hearing you defend your comment with stats and/or defensible observations.

--Jason "FYI-- Coach K said in his post-game newser that playing 40 minutes was no big deal for Kyle and Nolan-- what matters in how hard they practice between games and K is aware of how to control that" Evans

This line up, Nolan, Seth, Andre, Kyle and a big man will make Kyle play power forward by default. Kyle came back to school to up his draft stock and he will not play 1 second at power forward in the NBA.

I never said Kyle couldnt do it but you cant tell me that you can play 40 minutes of pressure D that K demands and not be tired, thus effecting your shot. And playing the power forward position, going against bigger and stronger guys in the paint will take its toll on a player even as great as Kyle. Im not even talking about what we have seen so far, Im looking forward.

Id rather see 2 bigs in MP1, MP2 or Ryan and develope a low post threat that can get you 10 to 15 a night. An inside presence will only get us open looks from the perimeter and that means trouble, even more trouble than teams are already in. Hey, you got your opinion I got mine.

Sometimes I get hype and play CouchCoach and throw my .02 in. With that being said, I will ride or Die with whatever K does because he is the greatest coach ever at any sport.

GOD Bless America and The DBR!

[gep]

I think it was 2000-2001 or so... Shane played most of every game, and said something to the effect that Coach K said that they play 4-minute games, with the relatively long TV timeout. That, plus the regular timeouts, and half-time. I always thought that kinda made sense, but then I think JJ apparently getting tired towards the end of seasons made me think about this a bit. Is it possible that JJ, as the example of tired legs, is more pronounced since his was really a long jumper kind of player. I know he developed a drive in his senior season, but he was still a primary long jump shooter. Shane also had a good long jump shot, but played all over the place too... kinda like Kyle. And, I thought that supposedly "bigs" get tired much faster than "small guard" types. So maybe Nolan will be fine with big minutes...

In any case, I think last year kinda showed that a few players (Kyle, Nolan, Jon) playing big minutes (about 36 minutes per game each) can work. If it takes Duke to a NC, so be it, huh?:cool:

[Kedsy]

I think your gona see more shooting nights like the miami game from Kyle if he has to play 40 minutes and alot of minutes at the 4 position.


Kyle only played the "4" for 7 minutes against Miami. Do you consider that a lot?


In the five games since Kyrie has been out, he has played the "4" for 5, 3, 8, 5, and 7 minutes, an average of 5.6 minutes a game.


This line up, Nolan, Seth, Andre, Kyle and a big man will make Kyle play power forward by default.

But that lineup hardly plays, so I don't get your point.

ALL lineups with Kyle at the "4" have averaged 5.6 minutes a game since Kyrie has been out. It's a matter of fact: Kyle has NOT been playing "alot of minutes at the 4 position." Why are you arguing otherwise?

[dukeimac]

Easy now - we are all on the same team. I've been a Duke fanatic for an embarassingly long time. ( ever heard of Jay Buckley or Hack Tyson? ) I was speaking out loud and plainly said I didn't understand. My comments generated some cohesive thoughts that were great to read. Coach Collin's remarks after the game pulled this thought process all together.
I certainly watched Coach work a masterpiece last year as did we all. I also watched JJ crash and burn twice so I was just sayin. Just think tanking some thoughts amongst us Duke fans for our own edification and/ or thought processes.
Kind of hateful and silly to believe that these thoughts were meant for Coach K to ponder and reconsider his position. Hehe - come on man.
However - I am available to debate the merits of a deep bench that has been developed all year and is ready for the big end game versus a 7 man rotation.

Personally, I don't think anyone should ever question what ANYBODY (coach, supervisor, etc.) does unless you have been there and done that. If anything, ask what one considers when playing a person or what others might know about why someone isn't getting the playing time, never question the coaches decision.

From where I sit, Tyler and Josh are way out of their league. the ACC is going to eat them up. They are the classic ACC freshman, they are not ready for quality playing time in the ACC. Having read Coach K's books and almost all the articles he has written and listen to a lot of his press conferences I know, and see, that Tyler and Josh are showing classic freshmanitis and will not see much conference playing time. That might change, if they come to practice and go hard even though they won't get much playing time. And then when they do get the playing time they need to play without the wide eyes and making mistakes. Knowing Coach K, they can't make one mistake in the first 10 seconds on the court, two within the first minute. He believes they are sitting on the bench and need to listen and watch and learn so when they go in they know what to do. I've seen him put a player in and within 10 second remove the guy and you can trace it back to a mistake they made once the got onto the court.


I graduated college in 1989, all but the first 3 of the years after graduation I've been a supervisor. I've seen good supervisors come and go because some staffer questioned the decisions they made. The staffer never had all the information needed to make the decision but they acted and talked like they knew what was best. The supervisors are gone, not because they didn't make good business decisions it was because they made bad staff decisions, letting someone under mind them. As a supervisor / manager, I never let that happen. I confront the staffer right away. To-date, knock on wood, everyone had to turn around, cowardly, and walk away because the fact is they never know all the facts to make the decision I made.

I had an employee who was late for work everyday, about 15 minutes. A hard worker and a real productive person. I had another employee who was a good worker. A spot opened up for a promotion. The good worker was concerned I might promote this other worker so the good worker started to bad mouth the late worker and me. I did promote the late worker. Here is what the good worker didn't know. First, the late worker was twice as productive than any other worker, the numbers proved it! The late worker was late because he was helping his mother with her medication, she is suffering from MS. The late worker worked about 30 minutes late every day, without pay. The good worker never stuck around to find this out. He just bad mouthed the fact that things pointed to me promoting the late worker. He good worker became a bad worker because he was talking behind my back. I put him in his place. Once he got all the facts, twice a productive, worked for twice the time he was late, for nothing. Once the good worker understood what I knew he had to apologize about me to every worker he bad mouthed about me, and that was a lot, it took him a while. But today, the good worker, is trying to be as productive as the late worker. Oh, and I gave the late worker the permission to be late once I met his mother.

People can ask questions but not in the tone of questioning any decision Coach K makes. Until you have coached a team to just one championship, at least high school level, you've never been there or done that and thus one has no clue with what he knows to make the decisions he makes. Just how happy would you be if in 2 minutes Tyler or Josh made two mistakes and cost Duke the UNC or Maryland game? But remember they played all in the idea of fans wanting Coach to play 9 guys. Not happy I'm sure and I believe Coach K won't put them into that situation.

In Coach K I trust, he has EARNED everyones trust.

[dukeballboy88]

Im from a lil town in Rockingham county and eversince I was able to hold a pencil/pen the town holds a huge march madness pool with a big prize to the winner. Whoever wins it walks around with a chip on their shoulder for a whole year. I play 4 sheets and ever since 1986 ive picked Duke to win it all every year on every sheet except 95 and that year I didnt play. I ride or die with K and K only and if K dont win it I dont want it. I never question K just offer things I would like to see but most importantly, I like to see W's!lol

After W's, Id like to see Kyle be a stud at the 3 on the NBA level.

Id like to see us go 9 deep giving some key players early rest so they can be fresh for the entire 2nd half.

Also, Id like to see why NBAdraft.net and Draftexpress.com have Mason going in the lottery.

[Neals384]

One personal every five minutes isn't that bad, is it? I mean, that is 25 minutes of time before he fouls out, and he would NEVER get that much time.

I don't think Tyler will get a ton of floor time, but given the quality of our guards, that is not too crazy... he is not going to get minutes over Nolan, Seth, or Dre right now.

I do think Josh could be a little useful... he is not as big as many ACC "4s" but he does have good hands and has a nice "feel" for the game, it seems... I would like to see what he could do in a lineup with Nolan, Dre, Kyle, Josh, and Miles/Mason/Ryan.

Well, nobody's worried about Josh fouling out, but the rate of fouls against lesser competition is an indicator that his defense is not where it needs to be for ACC play.

He's an aggressive player and he will be an asset on defense once he learns how to bang inside without getting picked on by the refs.

[ice-9]

Actually, it's not very good, because it represents bad defense. You're putting the other team on the line unnecessarily. I believe it was Mr. Battier who observed that the worst defensive result was a foul.

Correct! Assuming a shooting foul and a FT percentage of 70%, the opponent has a 70% chance of scoring one point and a 49% chance of scoring two. But with good defense, you should be able to drive down the accuracy of jumpshots to well below 49%.

[jimsumner]

There are plenty of examples of seven-player rotations doing quite well at Duke. In 1992 Laettner, Hurley, Hill, Hill, Davis, Lang and Parks absorbed almost all the minutes and that's with Hurley and Grant missing major time with injuries. Marty Clark was 8th in minutes played with 268. Kenny Blakeney played 175, Eric Meek 143. Most of those were mop-up minutes.

Duke's 8th man in 1994 was Greg Newton, who played a whopping 115 minutes. K took that seven-man team to within a minute of a national championship.

Duke's 1986 team also largely had a seven-player rotation. Snyder was eighth with 277 minutes played.

Or look at Georgia Tech's 1990 team, which had a six-player rotation and played its three top players, Dennis Scott, Kenny Anderson and Brian Oliver, practically every competitive second in which they weren't in foul trouble. Cremins' best team.

It helps if you have players who can play different positions and fill different roles and Duke has that with this group. The three guards can all switch between the 1 and the
2, Dawkins can play the 2 or the 3, Singler can move inside and Kelly and Mason can play either the 4 or the 5. So, there's adequate flexibility.

The biggest drawback to playing seven, IMO, comes with fouls. A nine-player rotation can stretch 20 fouls a lot further than can a seven-player rotation. That's where the positional flexibility comes in and that's where Hairston and Thornton may make some contributions.

I do think Hairston and Thornton will get more opportunities to contribute in games this season and I'm not uncomfortable with seeing them on the court in controlled doses. But the head coach does know what he's doing and he has demonstrated that to the satisfaction of most observers.