Phase III -- 2010-11

[Newton_14]

As expected, Duke went 4-0 during Phase II against Bradley (83-48), St Louis (84-47), Elon (98-72), and UNC-G (108-62). History was made during this 4 game stretch with Coach K tying Dean Smith in the Elon game at 879 Wins, and then surpassing the legend with win number 880 against UNC-G. Congratulations to Coach K who now stands alone in 2nd Place in all-times wins, and stands just 22 wins away from Bobby Knight who finished his career with 902 victories.

As for the team and its progress, this was still a difficult stretch. Bradley was the first game without Kyrie, Elon was the first game after the 9 day break for exams, and UNC-G was the first game back after the 2nd 9 game break for Christmas. The team was by far at their sharpest in this stretch against UNC-G, while the worst game came against Elon, where the defense was non-existent for much of the game.

So on to the categories of Phase III, which will cover the stretch of games from Miami on Jan 2nd, thru St Johns on Feb 1st. That is 9 games with 5 at home, 4 on the road, and 7 conferences games, 2 OOC. We should learn a great deal about the team during this stretch, including how we fare against quality opponents without Kyrie.

(1)Will Duke stay healthy?
-The bigger question is will Kyrie get healthy. Still no official word from Duke, though media reports suggest we will get more information next week. Let’s hope it is good news. Reputable sources have reported that it is likely Kyrie will return, but the unknown part is when. We now have 9 scholarship players that are healthy, and we need that number to go up and not down, so let’s hope the basketball gods help us out there.

(2) How well will we diversify our offense?
-Nolan and Kyle are clearly Options 1 and 2 on offense and both have settled into their normal AA type selves in these last 4 games. More on that later, but on the whole, how will we score the basketball in this phase? Kedsy mentioned 4 areas in Phase II, those being transition on the fast break, three-point baskets, dribble-drives, and passes to our big men. A quick look at each:

A. Transition- Even without Kyrie we still looked to run when the opportunity was there. I noticed in the UNC-G game that the coaches were imploring the team to get the ball up the floor quickly. Some feel we have slowed down without Kyrie, but really our pace in the geek stats, is not all that different than before. We need transition buckets in this phase, will we get them consistently? B. 3 Ball- Can we continue to shoot it this well in this phase? We are shooting the 3 Ball at an incredible 44.1% clip, a full 10% better than the nation avg. It was a major weapon in Phase II, and with the shooters we have, it will continue to be a weapon. Teams will simply have to respect that, which will open up the floor for… C. Dribble Drives- Nolan is our best weapon here, but Seth, Kyle, and to a lesser degree Andre have this ability as well. Our bigs can also face up and attack in the right situations. Kyrie was unreal at this but we can still score in this way. Look for Duke to attack the basket and get to the line more in this stretch. D. Passes to Bigs- We post our bigs very little, but we do get them the ball in positions where they can catch and attack. We saw this with Miles in the UNC_G game and boy did he deliver. Look for more of this with Miles and Mason. The staff wants them to go hard to the hole with intentions of dunking vs. going up tentative trying to avoid getting their shot blocked. Let’s note how much of this we see in this phase and how effective it is.

As of now, per KenPom, our total scoring breaks down as follows: 32.5% 3 Pointers, 46.6% 2 Pointers, 21.2% Free Throws. I like the numbers on whole, but would like to see the FT% go up a little. Still good overall though.

(5) How will the meaningful minutes be distributed?
-This Phase has long been the stretch where the handwringing begins from folks who think Player “X” should be getting more minutes. Marty Pocious, Taylor King, Ryan Kelly, etc have all seen their minutes drop to 5 mpg or less at this time of the year in seasons past. So how will K set the rotation? The starting lineup has changed numerous times so far, and as of now, we just do not know for sure which 3 guys will join Nolan and Kyle at the opening tip each night. The core guys that will surely be in the rotation are Nolan, Kyle, Andre, Miles, Mason, Seth, and Ryan. It will be interesting to see what K does with Josh and Tyler during this phase. If K sticks with keeping 2 true bigs on the floor like he has the last 4 games, then Josh could see some minutes in the 1st Half of games. How he plays in the 1st half will determine if we see him in the 2nd Half. Tyler will likely be used in the first half briefly, and then see time in the 2nd half in spots as a defensive specialist. Look for the top 7 to play the bulk of the minutes. Nolan and Kyle will play 32+mpg, the rest of the 7 will play a lot, and Tyler/Josh will get spot duty.

(4) Deeeeeeeefense
-Our defense is still a work in progress, but seems to be getting better. Here are the areas I will be watching in this phase.
A. Defending the 3 Ball- We must improve here. We have been very un-Duke like thus far in preventing open looks from 3. Can this be corrected?
B. Forcing Turnovers- I loved the trapping in the corners at half court in the UNC-G game and want to see more of that in this phase.
C. Help Defense (Both Bigs & Guards)- We need to stay within the team defense and be in the correct position in time to help. Our bigs have improved in this area, but all 5 on the floor have to cover their assignments. Can we do this effectively in conference play?
D. Defending The Post- Can Miles, Mason, and Ryan man up on back to the basket players and defend well? I think they can, but they have a date with Tracy Smith in this phase, and they need to be able to contain players of his caliber. We will likely see double-team’s in those situations which will mean good rotation is needed from help defenders. Let’s note how well they defend the Tracy Smiths in the phase and see if K doubles in the post a lot.
-
(5) Will we develop a killer instinct?- The trademark of the Battier teams was never being satisfied. If they got up 10, they wanted to be up 20, if they got up 20, they wanted to stretch it to 30. Will this team develop that mindset? They never really let up in the UNC-G game, but that was a “Cause” game. Can they put their foot on the throat of an opponent for 40 minutes and never let up? We will learn a lot about that aspect in this phase. Let’s watch this and see if they have any lapses that either cost them a game, or allow an opponent on the ropes to get back in it and make it a game.

(6) Will Mason bounce back?- I added this because there has been several posts mentioning Mason’s recent play. I feel Mason will be fine, and we will see a player more similar to the guy in the Marquette, K-State, and Mich St games. Scoring wise, he did not fare well in Phase II, but I am not overly worried. Mason is a very unselfish player for one thing, and looks for an assist as much or more than he does his own shot. For whatever reason, his head was not right in Phase II. Let’s see if he steps it up in Phase III. I think he will


(7) We need a bucket really bad, how do we get it?
-We lost a key component when Kyrie went down. When all hell breaks loose, 3’s aren’t falling, 2’s aren’t falling, opponent is wreaking havoc on our offense, and we absolutely have to find a way to score, where do we turn? With Kyrie, it was as simple as give him the ball and get out of the way. I mentioned earlier that both Nolan and Kyle have settled in, which is one of the thing’s Kedsy was looking for in Phase II. When we must have a basket, we have 2 All American candidates to answer the call. Nolan is pretty darn good at going to the rack himself, and has developed a deadly mid-range pull up jumper. We can and will go to him in times of need. Kyle is quite simply a Pro playing College Ball. His stroke is now dialed in. One pet play I love is when we go to the double high post, and then curl Kyle in off the baseline for a post up in front of the rim. That play has shown to be money many times over and in tough times, I think we will see it. If teams choose to double team either of those 2 to get the ball out of their hands, look for Andre and Seth to make them pay for it from 3 Land.


So there it is. 7 key areas. The overall goal is to have the guys end this Phase having grown into a better, stronger team in all phases of the game. Lets watch these 7 key area’s and see how the guys do, and then see if they are a better basketball team on Feb 1st than they are on Jan 1st. Let’s also pray that when SilkyJ puts together his Phase IV write up, he gets to tell us how K plans to work Kyrie back into the rotation!

Go Duke!

[diveonthefloor]

Awesome post. Very thoughtful!

Listening to K's most recent presser, it struck me that he made it a point of emphasis that we have changed offensive philosophy with Kyrie's absence....going from a system where "the players react to where the ball is" to a system where "the ball must react to the where the players are"...(I am paraphrasing and may not have it word for word.)

I honestly think this plays to the strengths of the scholarship players we currently have healthy (Mason will get there soon)....

He also intimated that when (if) Kyrie returns, we will maintain this philosophy.

K just gets it. He is brilliant. His capacity for understanding the big picture, formulating strategy, and communicating it in a simple/straightforward/confident fashion is second to none. (Maybe the best in the history of coaching, including RMK).

[Bob Green]

(2) How well will we diversify our offense?
-Nolan and Kyle are clearly Options 1 and 2 on offense and both have settled into their normal AA type selves in these last 4 games.

A. Transition- Even without Kyrie we still looked to run when the opportunity was there...We need transition buckets in this phase, will we get them consistently?

B. 3 Ball- Can we continue to shoot it this well in this phase? We are shooting the 3 Ball at an incredible 44.1% clip, a full 10% better than the nation avg.

C. Dribble Drives- Nolan is our best weapon here, but Seth, Kyle, and to a lesser degree Andre have this ability as well.

D. Passes to Bigs- We post our bigs very little, but we do get them the ball in positions where they can catch and attack. We saw this with Miles in the UNC_G game and boy did he deliver. Look for more of this with Miles and Mason.

Great analysis Boozer!

The #1 concern I have in Phase III is the offense becoming stagnant. Singler and Smith have the skills and, perhaps more importantly, the experience to score the ball at will. What I desire to see in Phase III is for Duke to remain a team with the ability to place five legitimate offensive threats on the court simultaneously. Therefore, it will be important for the offense to incorporate all four strategies outlined above.

A. Transition - turning turnovers into easy baskets has been a Duke staple for years.
B. 3 Ball - while I love to see Duke punish teams from the bonusphere, the one concern I have is too much standing around on offense. The team needs to shoot the 3 Ball as part of the half court set but the key is to have both the players and the ball moving.
C. Dribble Drives - Andre Dawkins took the ball down the lane on a couple of occasions recently and the more he does it the better he will become. The same goes for Seth Curry. When defenders fear these guys attacking the rim, the 3-point shot will become twice as dangerous. As an aside, I believe Dawkins could use his athleticism to work the baseline much like DeMarcus Nelson use to do resulting in easy baskets.
D. Passes to Bigs - specifically, I desire to see this option exercised in conjunction with the dribble drive offense. With the athleticism of our big men, we need to work the pick and roll over and over and over.

[Saratoga2]

One area implicit in your excellent post is that we need to see improvement from the supporting players. Specifically, Andre will need to move without the ball and be willing to go to the hoop or pull up and take his shot. In phase III, he is likely to see tighter defenses at the three so he needs to diversify his game. There have been signs that he got the message and is headed in that direction. He has a high potential to become much more of a threat as the season wears on.

Seth has come a long way and our best lineup may currently be with him at point, allowing Nolan to play in an off-the-ball roll. Seth's confidence appeared to grow during phase II, and he began to hit a higher percentage of his shots. He does have quick hands and his defense has become solid.

There has been a lot of consternation about Mason, a guy who is gifted athletically and has the size to be a formidable power forward. He hasn't as yet shown scoring moves or the touch on his shot to be a really feared offensive weapon. Yes, he can dunk and he can pass well but his game needs improvement during phase III.

Ryan's game has been coming along nicely. He has done well against the lesser teams of late and we shall see if that will translate to still more improvement as the competition intensifies. I expect him to make continuing improvement and to play significant minutes through the year.

Miles has the athletic ability and the size and strength to be a force inside. He also can hit the midrange but takes it infrequently. Having inside scoring is important for this team and he has the experience to show consistent improvement in his numbers

Defense:

We have given up too many open 3's this year. We have to tighten up inside as well. I attribute some of the defensive issues to the tendency to play so many combinations, especially in games where we had a big lead. As the rotation tightens, our defense should also improve.

[NSDukeFan]

One question I have for this phase is which Duke player(s) will be the lightning rod for criticism in this phase? Kyle drew some early criticism as did Miles, then there was worry about Seth and now the concern is that Mason is not very good anymore. Perhaps some of these kids have an off-game or two as they keep learning and developing and every player may not always match our hopes and expectations every game. Overall, I expect Mason will be a solid contributor this phase as he has for the majority of the year and I expect another player will be a "disappointment" for a few games.

I know, I know, part of being a fan(anatic), which we are is overanalyzing everyone's performances, but sometimes I think there is some quick criticism after one or two poor games. Not that it isn't necessarily justified, I just happen to be in the school of optimism and the let's not get carried away by a small sample size school.

I am also very excited by the start of ACC play and games against competition that is not rated below the top 100 by Pomeroy (sorry Wake.)

[gumbomoop]

Excellent Phase III overview by Boozer, plus perceptive follow-ups by others. [Herewith I'll try to break this pattern.]

I'm looking especially at these things:

1. Nolan seems very, very confident. I think there were comments from and about him this summer that he'd raised his game yet higher. But Kyrie was so amazing that I - you, too, maybe? - sort of lost focus on Nolan. No more, for he's now the main engine. How good is Nolan? Will he be in the conversation, a month from now, re 1st team AA?

2. I'm hoping to see a semi-breakout game, in the next 5 or 6, from each of our 3 main bigs: Ryan, Miles, and Mason. I'd like to see a real confidence-builder for each of them, as one of my keys-to-victory in any tough game is a strong game from any one of these 3.

3. A second key is a strong game from either Andre or Seth. As they've each already had a semi-[or-better-]breakout game, we already know each of them can produce. One or the other - doesn't matter which, and actually I'd prefer they sort of alternate, so each would know any night could be his - must do so in the close games.

4. Kyle and Nolan - One or the other must be the best player on the floor for us to win the close games. Doesn't matter which. I'm willing for them to switch off. [Kyle: "Whose turn is it tonight? I can't remember the last couple of games. I got some pretty tough courses for a senior. I shoulda planned better."]

5. To sum up [and stating this positively, I hope]: Duke will win almost [and probably] all close games in which:

a. either Kyle or Nolan is superb, and
b. either Seth or Andre scores 12-15 points and plays good D, and
c. either Ryan or Mason or Miles gets near a double-double [or, as an alternate, collectively they produce, say, 18 and 18, with 3-4 blocks], and
d. Duke plays every play on D

Piece of cake.

[superdave]

(1)Will Duke stay healthy?

(2) How well will we diversify our offense?

A. Transition-
B. 3 Ball-
C. Dribble Drives-
D. Passes to Bigs-

(3) How will the meaningful minutes be distributed?

(4) Deeeeeeeefense
A. Defending the 3 Ball-
B. Forcing Turnovers-
C. Help Defense (Both Bigs & Guards)-
D. Defending The Post-

(5) Will we develop a killer instinct?

(6) Will Mason bounce back?

(7) We need a bucket really bad, how do we get it?


Diversify Offense - The play where Kyle flashes into the post off a couple of screens to get a quick layup is a good one. I expect Coach K to introduce 3-4 more wrinkles like that during this Phase because we're running more set plays with KI out. It would be great to see one of those consistently run for Mason.

I do think Nolan has been playing as if he knows he's the best player on the court. His confidence is high and think the team feeds off of it. That bodes well for us in the half court offense. He is giving this team a personality and some swagger.

Without Kyrie, I expect our big men to get scoring opportunities with baseline/elbow jumpers, hi-low dumpdowns and slashes to the basket on dribble drives. We're not going to have a traditional back to the basket post game, but we can get points a number of ways.

D I like our progress here to date - the big guys are buying into their roles, the guards are capable and opportunistic. The major concern here is bring energy and focus for a full 40 minutes. You dont need it to beat Elon, but you do to win on the road in the ACC. I also think Miles vs. Tracy Smith and Jordan Williams will be fun to watch. I predict big time D out of Miles going forward.

Mason I feel pretty good about his defensive progress this year, which was my biggest concern. I do think Mason is a little bit where Andre was last year and maybe Seth a little bit back at Thanksgiving - un-confident. The ball is not going to go through him on a lot of possessions, but he has to keep his hands ready if does. Alley oops arent going to be there as teams know to look for it, but he has to be energetic regardless. I think it will be like a switch going off in his head. One game he's going to do all the little things really well and not look back.

Unknowns Jumbo would occasionally throw in some unknown category. We have a enough talent where someone could really step up in the next few weeks and earn more playing time. We also have enough talent to continue adjusting and tweaking through this Phase to where we are not a well-oiled machine yet. I dont think this team has hit on all cylinders for 40 minutes yet, and that' probably a good thing - we have not yet peaked, and these guys are hungry and learning still.

[Kedsy]

Nice job, Boozer. You definitely hit the high points. I'm really interested in seeing if we can (and will) play tough defense for the full 40 minutes against a good team, and also how our without-Kyrie-team-personality will continue to develop. Another thing I'm wondering is can our offense continue to be so efficient (especially our three-point shooting) against a top notch defense. If not, your final question (if we desperately need a basket, where will it come from?) may end up being the critical one.

I'm very much looking forward to this phase. Thanks for a great Phase III report.

[OldPhiKap]

Great breakdown, Boozer.

I think the main issue going forward is pretty simple -- TEAM COHESION. Last year proved that, to win a championship, you need two main things:

1. A team that is greater than its parts; and

2. The ability to overcome several different types of challenges in the six games you need to win in March.


Along those lines, we certainly have the players to do it, with or without Kyrie. So I'm not so concerned with some of the stat line stuff that normally consumes me this year -- can everyone find a role and create something bigger than their parts? That's the challenge.

We have two legitimate AA candidates (Kyle, Nolan), several dangerous guards (Seth, Andre), and some tough match-ups inside (Mason, Miles, Ryan). Not to mention a freshman class that includes the most dynamic player in the game (if we get him back) and two incredibly talented players with huge upsides (Josh and Tyler).

Plus, a coaching staff that is a tad more than adequate.

There is no question that we have the talent, coaching, and parts to approach any challenge. But will we be the TEAM that can overcome? That's the issue that determines how far we go.

[DukieInBrasil]

We have two legitimate AA candidates (Kyle, Nolan), several dangerous guards (Seth, Andre), and some tough match-ups inside (Mason, Miles, Ryan). Not to mention a freshman class that includes the most dynamic player in the game (if we get him back) and two incredibly talented players with huge upsides (Josh and Tyler).

Let's not get ahead of ourselves here. I like both Josh and Tyler as players and i believe SOME DAY they will provide the team with skilled play, determination and championship-caliber performances. They will provide important minutes at times, but I think it's a mistake to think that they are going to provide a meaningful difference in any games this year. I just don't think the "huge upsides" of J & T are gonna come into play on THIS year's team and probably not even during Phase III.
Nolan and Kyle are both certainly AA-quality candidates and your assertions about Seth, Andre, the MPs and Ryan are valid.

[superdave]

Nice job, Boozer. You definitely hit the high points. I'm really interested in seeing if we can (and will) play tough defense for the full 40 minutes against a good team, and also how our without-Kyrie-team-personality will continue to develop. Another thing I'm wondering is can our offense continue to be so efficient (especially our three-point shooting) against a top notch defense. If not, your final question (if we desperately need a basket, where will it come from?) may end up being the critical one.

I'm very much looking forward to this phase. Thanks for a great Phase III report.


If we have to have a basket, I'd think we'll run the play for Kyle or Nolan, depending on who has the hot hand or the better matchup. Both should be able to score in any one-on-one matchup they face all year.

I think the more interesting question is how do break out of an offensive drought when the 3s are not falling. Do Kyle and Nolan just look to drive over and over and get to the FT line? Also, and related, when the offense gets bogged down, do we continue to play with elevated defensive intensity?

[Kedsy]

If we have to have a basket, I'd think we'll run the play for Kyle or Nolan, depending on who has the hot hand or the better matchup. Both should be able to score in any one-on-one matchup they face all year.

I think the more interesting question is how do break out of an offensive drought when the 3s are not falling. Do Kyle and Nolan just look to drive over and over and get to the FT line?

Well, I think these are the same question. Shooters should keep shooting. If the "3s are not falling" I don't expect us to do anything different until we really need a basket. At that point what do we do? If you're right and Nolan and/or Kyle can just take their man one-on-one with an overwhelming chance of success, then we're fine.

If the opponent can double-team one or both of them and cause their chance of success to decrease, then they have to be able to find someone else for an easy basket. And I know they can do it, but it's far from a sure thing, unless Nolan's PG skills continue to grow to the point where he can make the drive-and-dish near-automatic. This is the most important thing that Kyrie brings, and in his absence it will be one of the things I will be watching for most during this phase.


Also, and related, when the offense gets bogged down, do we continue to play with elevated defensive intensity?

I agree that being able to bring the defensive intensity for the full 40 minutes no matter what distractions arise is a huge key for this year's team.

[Faison1]

If we have to have a basket, I'd think we'll run the play for Kyle or Nolan, depending on who has the hot hand or the better matchup. Both should be able to score in any one-on-one matchup they face all year.

I think the more interesting question is how do break out of an offensive drought when the 3s are not falling. Do Kyle and Nolan just look to drive over and over and get to the FT line? Also, and related, when the offense gets bogged down, do we continue to play with elevated defensive intensity?

I really, really like it when we run an iso for Kyle, while he is posting up his man, backing him down, and calling for the ball. In fact, not to sound too weird, but I dream about it (figuratively).

That's the kind of stuff one generally sees from confident Juniors and Seniors.

[MarkD83]

Great breakdown, Boozer.

I think the main issue going forward is pretty simple -- TEAM COHESION. Last year proved that, to win a championship, you need two main things:

1. A team that is greater than its parts; and

2. The ability to overcome several different types of challenges in the six games you need to win in March.




I liked what I heard from Jason Williams when he was asked during the UNC-G game what happens at the start of the year at Duke. His response was that everyone gets to define their own role.

Your observation about Team Cohesion comes down to everyone finding and accepting their roles. The roles have changed now that Kyrie is injuried but I have seen signs that everyone has a role and they are each accepting it.

Tyler comes in and provides defense at the point and a steady hand running the team (his pass to Miles for the dunk was very basic and perhaps overlooked but exactly what Duke needs at the point). Josh does the dirty work down low getting rebounds, setting picks and playing D. He also has some nice moves down low to keep the opposing teams defense honest.

Seth, and Andre are both playing good defense and looking for their shots when they are open. As an aside, there may be some discussion about finding a third scorer besides Nolan and Kyle. I believe that Seth and Andre are that third and fourth scorer so that other teams can not just focus on Nolan and Kyle. Unlike last year I do not think we have to worry if one of the "big 2" goes cold on the offensive end.

If I have one concern about Team Cohesion it is the desire for one of Miles, Mason or Ryan to become the low post 20/10 guy that most commentators think is needed to win the NCAA. College basketball is a perimeter oriented game. If these three get rebounds and between the three of them score 20+ points each time out, Duke will be fine. If they each averaged 6-8 pts and 5-6 rebounds that is all that is needed to keep the defense honest and get the Duke running game going. If individually they get frustrated with their scoring averages that would concern me because they will start looking for their own game rather than hitting the open man. Between Nolan, Kyle, Seth and Andre there is enough offensive fire power to carry this team. However, Miles, Mason and Ryan are the one's that need to get the rebounds.

[Kedsy]

If I have one concern about Team Cohesion it is the desire for one of Miles, Mason or Ryan to become the low post 20/10 guy that most commentators think is needed to win the NCAA.

I can't believe "most commentators" would think this. For one thing, Duke won it last year when our best low post threat averaged 5.6 points a game. I went back all the way to 1997, and exactly *zero* national champions had a 20/10 guy. And only four out of 14 had someone who came anywhere close (Hansbrough in 2009 (20.7/8.1); May in 2005 (17.5/10.7); Okafor in 2004 (17.6/11.5)). Baxter in 2002 averaged 15.3 and 8.2, but other than those four, no championship team had a center or power forward who averaged as many as 15 points, and only seven of the 14 championship teams had a center or power forward who averaged as many as 8 rebounds (including the four I already mentioned).

But whether or not most commentators think this, after watching last year's Duke team there's no way Miles, Mason, Ryan, or Josh think it. So I don't think your concern will come to be, and I agree that 20 points and 18 rebounds between the four of them will be sufficient (so far, the four of them are averaging 22.4 ppg and 17.3 rpg).

[superdave]

I can't believe "most commentators" would think this. For one thing, Duke won it last year when our best low post threat averaged 5.6 points a game. I went back all the way to 1997, and exactly *zero* national champions had a 20/10 guy. And only four out of 14 had someone who came anywhere close (Hansbrough in 2009 (20.7/8.1); May in 2005 (17.5/10.7); Okafor in 2004 (17.6/11.5)). Baxter in 2002 averaged 15.3 and 8.2, but other than those four, no championship team had a center or power forward who averaged as many as 15 points, and only seven of the 14 championship teams had a center or power forward who averaged as many as 8 rebounds (including the four I already mentioned).

But whether or not most commentators think this, after watching last year's Duke team there's no way Miles, Mason, Ryan, or Josh think it. So I don't think your concern will come to be, and I agree that 20 points and 18 rebounds between the four of them will be sufficient (so far, the four of them are averaging 22.4 ppg and 17.3 rpg).

Last night's 16, 22 and 8 was pretty good, especially considering how well they hedged screens and pushed the Miami guards out. Things clicked defensively for the three bigs last night in my estimation. But it seems like until they convert a lot of those interior posessions and offensive rebounds, people wont be entirely happy. And that's fine, but I'll bet we get there by March.

[Newton_14]

After watching the Miami game again today on DVR and listening to the commentating, it hit me upside the head like a brick, that I omitted, what I think is a key item for Phase III. So I want to toss another one out there for discussion, if that is ok with folks.

(8) Development/Maturation Both As Individuals and As A Team
- One thing that many, myself included, has overlooked regarding this team, is just how young we are. Everyone talking of undefeated, national champions, etc etc seem to forget just how young this team is, and how much growth and maturation is needed, if the team is to meet its goals. Yes we have 2 Senior All Americans to lead the team in Nolan and Kyle. After that, there is a significant drop off in terms of experience.

2 Sr’s, 1 Jr, 4 Soph’s, 3 Fr, is not exactly a team of old men. Miles is a soph in terms of PT, and he and Mason are the only 2 besides Nolan and Kyle who were in the rotation all of last season. Andre has played in hostile situations, but has not logged heavy minutes prior to this year. Seth played one year as The Man at a much smaller school, and Ryan played very little in tough games last year. Kyrie is out obviously, but even though he is a phenom, he is still a freshman who has yet to see action in an ACC game. Tyler and Josh are true freshman just trying to get acclimated and earn minutes.

There is much development and growth needed with this team for individuals and as a team. Even though we are still ranked Number 1, this team is no where near being a finished product. This phase is an important stretch for that growth. How will the youngun’s respond in a hostile environment? If guys like Miles, Ryan, Mason, and Seth can improve their games and gain consistency, this team can become much stronger and more dominant than they are now. Andre is already coming on, will the others step up in this phase?

[roywhite]

After watching the Miami game again today on DVR and listening to the commentating, it hit me upside the head like a brick, that I omitted, what I think is a key item for Phase III. So I want to toss another one out there for discussion, if that is ok with folks.

(8) Development/Maturation Both As Individuals and As A Team
- One thing that many, myself included, has overlooked regarding this team, is just how young we are. Everyone talking of undefeated, national champions, etc etc seem to forget just how young this team is, and how much growth and maturation is needed, if the team is to meet its goals. Yes we have 2 Senior All Americans to lead the team in Nolan and Kyle. After that, there is a significant drop off in terms of experience.

2 Sr’s, 1 Jr, 4 Soph’s, 3 Fr, is not exactly a team of old men. Miles is a soph in terms of PT, and he and Mason are the only 2 besides Nolan and Kyle who were in the rotation all of last season. Andre has played in hostile situations, but has not logged heavy minutes prior to this year. Seth played one year as The Man at a much smaller school, and Ryan played very little in tough games last year. Kyrie is out obviously, but even though he is a phenom, he is still a freshman who has yet to see action in an ACC game. Tyler and Josh are true freshman just trying to get acclimated and earn minutes.

There is much development and growth needed with this team for individuals and as a team. Even though we are still ranked Number 1, this team is no where near being a finished product. This phase is an important stretch for that growth. How will the youngun’s respond in a hostile environment? If guys like Miles, Ryan, Mason, and Seth can improve their games and gain consistency, this team can become much stronger and more dominant than they are now. Andre is already coming on, will the others step up in this phase?

Good points. I hope Tyler and Josh work hard and can be part of the rotation against good opponents. I'd rather see Tyler and Josh with even 5 minutes apiece and Nolan and Kyle getting a breather occasionally, instead of doing 40 minutes on a frequent basis.

[gam7]

After watching the Miami game again today on DVR and listening to the commentating, it hit me upside the head like a brick, that I omitted, what I think is a key item for Phase III. So I want to toss another one out there for discussion, if that is ok with folks.

(8) Development/Maturation Both As Individuals and As A Team
- One thing that many, myself included, has overlooked regarding this team, is just how young we are. Everyone talking of undefeated, national champions, etc etc seem to forget just how young this team is, and how much growth and maturation is needed, if the team is to meet its goals. Yes we have 2 Senior All Americans to lead the team in Nolan and Kyle. After that, there is a significant drop off in terms of experience.

2 Sr’s, 1 Jr, 4 Soph’s, 3 Fr, is not exactly a team of old men. Miles is a soph in terms of PT, and he and Mason are the only 2 besides Nolan and Kyle who were in the rotation all of last season. Andre has played in hostile situations, but has not logged heavy minutes prior to this year. Seth played one year as The Man at a much smaller school, and Ryan played very little in tough games last year. Kyrie is out obviously, but even though he is a phenom, he is still a freshman who has yet to see action in an ACC game. Tyler and Josh are true freshman just trying to get acclimated and earn minutes.

There is much development and growth needed with this team for individuals and as a team. Even though we are still ranked Number 1, this team is no where near being a finished product. This phase is an important stretch for that growth. How will the youngun’s respond in a hostile environment? If guys like Miles, Ryan, Mason, and Seth can improve their games and gain consistency, this team can become much stronger and more dominant than they are now. Andre is already coming on, will the others step up in this phase?

A little more grist for this mill: according to Pomeroy, Duke is ranked 228 out of 345 in terms of average experience per player with 1.57 years. The NCAA average is 1.72.

[Bob Green]

(8) Development/Maturation Both As Individuals and As A Team

How will the youngun’s respond in a hostile environment?

Your excellent question will be answered @FSU (1/12), @NC State (1/19) and @St. John's (1/30). The first ACC road game in Tallahassee against the stingy defense of Florida State will definitely be a test. We will need the offense to be clicking so we can score the ball in various ways. We all remember last year's whuppin in Raleigh.

I watched St. John's defeat Georgetown tonight and the Red Storm have a lot of talent.

January is going to be a tough month, but it needs to be tough to ready the team for an even tougher February with games @Maryland (2/2), @Miami (2/13), @Virginia (2/16) and @Virginia Tech (2/26). But I'm getting ahead of myself, let's focus on January first and let February take care of February. I expect we will be a much tougher team by then.

[OldPhiKap]

Your excellent question will be answered @FSU (1/12), @NC State (1/19) and @St. John's (1/30). The first ACC road game in Tallahassee against the stingy defense of Florida State will definitely be a test. We will need the offense to be clicking so we can score the ball in various ways. We all remember last year's whuppin in Raleigh.

I watched St. John's defeat Georgetown tonight and the Red Storm have a lot of talent.

January is going to be a tough month, but it needs to be tough to ready the team for an even tougher February with games @Maryland (2/2), @Miami (2/13), @Virginia (2/16) and @Virginia Tech (2/26). But I'm getting ahead of myself, let's focus on January first and let February take care of February. I expect we will be a much tougher team by then.

Bob, excellent point to add to Boozer, roy and gam. We have a tough road ahead. You can either look at it as teams we need to beat to stay undefeated, or (IMO) challenges that will let coach learn about what we need to adjust come March.

The ACC may be down as it relates to outside teams, but conference games are still conference games. No quarter given or requested.

Fight, Blue Devils, Fight!

[gumbomoop]

We have a tough road ahead.... Conference games are still conference games. No quarter given or requested.

I am neither the first nor the last to make the following point: Duke is much more likely to get every opponent's "best shot" than is any other ACC team. Thus, although it may be true that the conference games are in the main intense [wait, is this actually true? I have no idea], they are not universally so. There will be some, perhaps more than a few, fairly dull contests in conference. It's unlikely that any such contest will involve Duke.

Will Miami be as psychologically up for any game as they were last evening, and will be for the return match? Well, perhaps toward the end of the season, when opportunities to get into the NCAAT hang in the balance. But for a game here and there, they just won't be ready.


And, of course, you know which f$u team will show up when we visit Tallahassee this year. Yep....

Yep. The one, like the other 10 in the ACC, for whom the Duke game is the biggest in their season. Auburn? They couldn't get up for that one, despite the fact that this would be - and now is - a very bad loss. So a strong defensive FSU "holds" Auburn to 47% FG and 42% 3pt FG. Auburn.

Or how about this? VaTech, a team you'd think would be mentally prepared for its first conference game, given its, uh, recent NCAAT disappointments, lost at home to its bitter rival [?], UVa. But it is rather more likely to play, much later this season, as if its bitter rival is... another team.

To paraphrase, but only slightly, one of the great lines in modern film noir history [The Conversation - know it?], "They'd kill us if they got the chance."

[superdave]

(8) Development/Maturation Both As Individuals and As A Team


I think is a part of what was being discussed before the season started, although not explicitly the way you mention it. There has been discussion of focus, buying into the Team D concept, acceptance of role, etc.

As for progress, I liked what I saw defensively out of our bigs vs. Miami. These guys are getting enough reps in to where they know their assignments well, and will improve from here on out. For example, I think it's a sign of maturity to stop trying to block everything by out-jumping your opponent and trust in your teammates more. Help side blocks are a better way to block shots and we saw plenty of that vs. Miami.

I'd also say that Nolan has matured into the leader we hoped for. We needed that vocal presence and he is it.

Andre seems to be elevating his game during the course of the season, becoming our #3 scoring option by diversifying his game. I would like to see a similar commitment and level of effort and focus out of Mason. I believe he has it in him. But he needs to want it and put in the extra time to go out and get it, which is part of the growing up process.

[gam7]

Unknowns Jumbo would occasionally throw in some unknown category. We have a enough talent where someone could really step up in the next few weeks and earn more playing time. We also have enough talent to continue adjusting and tweaking through this Phase to where we are not a well-oiled machine yet. I dont think this team has hit on all cylinders for 40 minutes yet, and that' probably a good thing - we have not yet peaked, and these guys are hungry and learning still.

After our loss on Wednesday, I have found some solace in two facts:

1. Last season, our 35-win, national championship squad was a .500 team (5-5) in true road games. For Duke in particular, ACC road games are just a different beast. We lost to Florida State on Wednesday, and we will almost certainly (in my mind) lose other road games this year. Our performance on the road will have very little predictive value with respect to how we will perform in the post-season.

2. We have not come anywhere close to peaking yet. The Florida State loss exposed us in a few ways that tell us exactly where we will need to improve in order to meet our full potential. The goal has always been to peak for the post-season. At a high level of abstraction, it seems to me that good teams tend to go through roughly three phases over the course of a season: (a) team wins lots of games early showing that it is pretty good; (b) team loses a few games in the middle of the season (often conference road games) that expose weaknesses; (c) team improves on weaknesses and peaks in post-season. This is the pattern of development I am looking for Duke to follow this year.

[superdave]

After our loss on Wednesday, I have found some solace in two facts:

1. Last season, our 35-win, national championship squad was a .500 team (5-5) in true road games. For Duke in particular, ACC road games are just a different beast. We lost to Florida State on Wednesday, and we will almost certainly (in my mind) lose other road games this year. Our performance on the road will have very little predictive value with respect to how we will perform in the post-season.

2. We have not come anywhere close to peaking yet. The Florida State loss exposed us in a few ways that tell us exactly where we will need to improve in order to meet our full potential. The goal has always been to peak for the post-season. At a high level of abstraction, it seems to me that good teams tend to go through roughly three phases over the course of a season: (a) team wins lots of games early showing that it is pretty good; (b) team loses a few games in the middle of the season (often conference road games) that expose weaknesses; (c) team improves on weaknesses and peaks in post-season. This is the pattern of development I am looking for Duke to follow this year.

Amen. A wise post that takes the long view of the season.

Since we're on the subject, what are our weaknesses we need to address? I'll try to throw a few out there.

1. Maintaining focus and intensity for a full 40 minutes.
2. Finding scoring opportunities for our big guys in order to keep offensive balance.
3. Making our help-side defensive rotations to prevent easy buckets.
4. Being strong with the ball/more aggressive on dribble drives for our wings in order to not get stripped.
5. Pushing the ball up court before the D gets set to get easy buckets (have we forgotten this a little?)
5a. Players filling the running lanes better on breaks.

We're getting there. I still feel really good about who we are and where are at this point in the season.

[ncexnyc]

Amen. A wise post that takes the long view of the season.

Since we're on the subject, what are our weaknesses we need to address? I'll try to throw a few out there.

1. Maintaining focus and intensity for a full 40 minutes.
2. Finding scoring opportunities for our big guys in order to keep offensive balance.
3. Making our help-side defensive rotations to prevent easy buckets.
4. Being strong with the ball/more aggressive on dribble drives for our wings in order to not get stripped.
5. Pushing the ball up court before the D gets set to get easy buckets (have we forgotten this a little?)
5a. Players filling the running lanes better on breaks.

We're getting there. I still feel really good about who we are and where are at this point in the season.

I find it interesting that both you and the previous poster feel the FSU game, "exposed" some weaknesses on the team.
1. Maintaining focus has been mentioned in postgame threads of several other games. This was dismissed by several members, because we got big leads in those games and as one person wrote, "We eased off the pedal."
2. Getting consistent scoring from our bigs has nearly been beaten to death. So I'm not sure how that is something, which was "exposed."
3. Defensive breakdowns have also been discussed time and time again. Inexperience has been the main excuse for this problem, with some claiming the D is just fine.
4. Kids being strong with the ball on drives to the basket. A very good point and one that can be worked on. Dre and Seth are the prime candidates for the extra work, but in fairness to them they are being asked to do more than what they were are the start of the season due to Kyrie's injury.
5. Pushing the ball up the court is another excellent point. Mason does a really great job of making the first pass, but far to often Dre has been the player receiving that pass and he'll just hold the ball and wait for one of the primary baller handlers to come and get the ball from him. Tweak this to make sure Nolan, Seth, or even Kyle gets that pass and we should improve in this area.
5a. Hard to judge the passing lanes comment. I recall two plays from the last game, which could be what you're talking about. At 16-13, Nolan led a 3 on 2 break. He took the ball to far under the basket instead of dishing to Kyle who was crashing from the left. And the steal Seth made in the second half where he tried to split two defenders instead of passing to Nolan who was all alone in the middle of the court.

I'm sure the folks who have commented on our weaknesses in previous games don't believe the sky is falling and they believe they were doing their due dilligence as fans to point out what they preceived to be potential problem areas for the team. If it takes a loss for others to help them focus on these concerns then so be it. Hopefully we won't get, "exposed" too many more times the remainder of the year.

[superdave]

I find it interesting that both you and the previous poster feel the FSU game, "exposed" some weaknesses on the team.
1. Maintaining focus has been mentioned in postgame threads of several other games. This was dismissed by several members, because we got big leads in those games and as one person wrote, "We eased off the pedal."
2. Getting consistent scoring from our bigs has nearly been beaten to death. So I'm not sure how that is something, which was "exposed."
3. Defensive breakdowns have also been discussed time and time again. Inexperience has been the main excuse for this problem, with some claiming the D is just fine.
4. Kids being strong with the ball on drives to the basket. A very good point and one that can be worked on. Dre and Seth are the prime candidates for the extra work, but in fairness to them they are being asked to do more than what they were are the start of the season due to Kyrie's injury.
5. Pushing the ball up the court is another excellent point. Mason does a really great job of making the first pass, but far to often Dre has been the player receiving that pass and he'll just hold the ball and wait for one of the primary baller handlers to come and get the ball from him. Tweak this to make sure Nolan, Seth, or even Kyle gets that pass and we should improve in this area.
5a. Hard to judge the passing lanes comment. I recall two plays from the last game, which could be what you're talking about. At 16-13, Nolan led a 3 on 2 break. He took the ball to far under the basket instead of dishing to Kyle who was crashing from the left. And the steal Seth made in the second half where he tried to split two defenders instead of passing to Nolan who was all alone in the middle of the court.

I'm sure the folks who have commented on our weaknesses in previous games don't believe the sky is falling and they believe they were doing their due dilligence as fans to point out what they preceived to be potential problem areas for the team. If it takes a loss for others to help them focus on these concerns then so be it. Hopefully we won't get, "exposed" too many more times the remainder of the year.

My comments were more in general rather than having anything to do with FSU. I'd also throw in there that Nolan got stripped a lot on drives vs. Maryland, in addition to FSU. But at least he didnt draw and offensive foul by raising his arm!

I'd love to see more of Kyle, Seth and Andre starting the break. Great fast breaking teams dont rebound and hunt for the PG. They hunt for one of a number of ball handlers. Seth and Kyle are most defiitely capable of pushing the ball with their current dribbling skills, and Andre could on a more limited basis. Quick buckets tend to to be easier than buckets vs. a set D.

[jv001]

.
5. Pushing the ball up the court is another excellent point. Mason does a really great job of making the first pass, but far to often Dre has been the player receiving that pass and he'll just hold the ball and wait for one of the primary baller handlers to come and get the ball from him. Tweak this to make sure Nolan, Seth, or even Kyle gets that pass and we should improve in this area.


Mason has been our best rebounder all season, but I've noticed that after he makes the outlet pass(good ones at that), he does not bust his rear end getting down the court and get involved in the fast break. I don't know if that's by design or he's just failing to do that. I know he can't be counted on to hit a 3 like some of our former big guys that trailed the play, but he could still rebounds and put backs. Just a few little things like this can help our offense. Go Duke!

[superdave]

Mason has been our best rebounder all season, but I've noticed that after he makes the outlet pass(good ones at that), he does not bust his rear end getting down the court and get involved in the fast break. I don't know if that's by design or he's just failing to do that. I know he can't be counted on to hit a 3 like some of our former big guys that trailed the play, but he could still rebounds and put backs. Just a few little things like this can help our offense. Go Duke!

All three of our bigs dont hit that extra gear in running the court as often as I'd like. Another place I see that is when they hedge a ballhandler on a screen, they dont bust their tails back to their man. Our two frontcourt seniors last year really sprinted hard back to their man. A lot of times it is these little things that add up.

Uhm, not that I'm comparing last year to this year or anything...

[ncexnyc]

All three of our bigs dont hit that extra gear in running the court as often as I'd like. Another place I see that is when they hedge a ballhandler on a screen, they dont bust their tails back to their man. Our two frontcourt seniors last year really sprinted hard back to their man. A lot of times it is these little things that add up.

Uhm, not that I'm comparing last year to this year or anything...

We see many of the same things. LT never loafed and he was a defensive stud even in his third year. The issue many, including myself had with him was that at times he had too much energy, a lot of folks on here labelled it spastic energy. He finally got his emotions under control and managed to reduce the silly fouls that haunted him early on in his career. As we all know Z's development was hampered by injuries. It took him until his final year to get into prime basketball shape and he finally got the in game reps to understand how to properly hedge. Now look back at some of the threads from last year and you'll see people commenting on how both Miles and Mason would get left behind on the offensive end as the opposition with ball in hand sped to the other end of the court.

I can't say I've seen it this much this year, but honestly I haven't been focusing on this either. If the UVA game is the laugher many suspect it will be I might focus on this aspect of our bigs play.

By the way, if the game is the blowout many predict it will be, I won't take much solace from that. We won't find out if adjustments have been made until we face a team that gives us a tough game, both the State and St. John's game will probably be true tests.

[superdave]

We see many of the same things. LT never loafed and he was a defensive stud even in his third year. The issue many, including myself had with him was that at times he had too much energy, a lot of folks on here labelled it spastic energy. He finally got his emotions under control and managed to reduce the silly fouls that haunted him early on in his career. As we all know Z's development was hampered by injuries. It took him until his final year to get into prime basketball shape and he finally got the in game reps to understand how to properly hedge. Now look back at some of the threads from last year and you'll see people commenting on how both Miles and Mason would get left behind on the offensive end as the opposition with ball in hand sped to the other end of the court.

I can't say I've seen it this much this year, but honestly I haven't been focusing on this either. If the UVA game is the laugher many suspect it will be I might focus on this aspect of our bigs play.

By the way, if the game is the blowout many predict it will be, I won't take much solace from that. We won't find out if adjustments have been made until we face a team that gives us a tough game, both the State and St. John's game will probably be true tests.

I dont think you'll see any sea change in our offense. That already happened when Kyrie got hurt. You will see wrinkles added, like a hi-lo or a lob on certain plays though.

[Saratoga2]

After our loss on Wednesday, I have found some solace in two facts:



2. We have not come anywhere close to peaking yet. The Florida State loss exposed us in a few ways that tell us exactly where we will need to improve in order to meet our full potential. The goal has always been to peak for the post-season. At a high level of abstraction, it seems to me that good teams tend to go through roughly three phases over the course of a season: (a) team wins lots of games early showing that it is pretty good; (b) team loses a few games in the middle of the season (often conference road games) that expose weaknesses; (c) team improves on weaknesses and peaks in post-season. This is the pattern of development I am looking for Duke to follow this year.

Every team develops and improves during the year provided they don't sustain injuries to key players. The hope is that with Duke starting near the top of the team rankings and abilities, even without Kyrie, we will continue to improve as fast as or faster than our competitors. Improvements come to individual players who gain experience and work on their deficiencies and also through coaches, who recognize how best to organize their teams on the floor.

Following the Wake game, it is easy to see the improvement in Ryan, who had bulked up, learned how to best use his size and moderate lateral quickness and jumping ability to play sound defense. He certainly is quicker and can jump higher than Zoubek, so those attributes are not everything. He is a smart player and makes sound passes and has worked on his shot, with outstanding results.

Tyler also has shown a lot of improvement. His has been able to apply aggressive defense to the opponents ball handler and make him expend time and energy to start his teams offense. His play with the ball has freed Nolan somewhat of the burdens of playing point while scoring. Clearly if Tyler could develop a mid range jumper, he could draw defenses and dish more effectively. He also needs to work on his foul shooting. Since he clearly knows his current limitations, I expect further improvements as the season continues.

Miles went through a weak period and needed to reevaluate. His play the last two games has been better, with positioning and some scoring. What he is doing now is an improvement. Lets hope he can built on this and gain the confidence needed to be consistent.

Brother Mason has been a rebounding machine and has been able to make some blocks and otherwise alter shots. His offensive game just is not there at this time. If he continues at the current level of play, the team will at least be well served.

Both Nolan and Kyle are playing solid defense and are our main scoring option. In my view the only likely improvement they can make is to avoid forcing shots and involve others in the scoring when they don't really have a solid scoring opportunity.

Andre seems to have regressed a little and it is hard to understand why. Clearly his ball handling could improve, but his shooting has dropped off both in volume and accuracy. With the physical tools he has he should be a number 3 scorer and he should play better defense. Is it a lack of confidence with him? Hard to know, but he has the ability and could blossom again at any time.

Seth level of play seems to have plateaued. He has quick hands and makes some steals, however his defense is not that good in my opinion. When he entered the Wake game for Tyler, the defense suddenly was giving up more points. He also seems to be taking ill advised 3 pointers from 6 feet or more behind the line. He can be a better player but needs to work on his issues or he will get less PT.

All in all, Duke is showing some improvement and maybe some regression in areas. Is it positive enough to overshadow what improvements in other teams? I hope so but it isn't obviously the case.

[superdave]

(1)Will Duke stay healthy?
(2) How well will we diversify our offense?
(5) How will the meaningful minutes be distributed?
(4) Deeeeeeeefense
(5) Will we develop a killer instinct?
(6) Will Mason bounce back?
(7) We need a bucket really bad, how do we get it?
Go Duke!

We are coming to the end of Phase III with the Unc game. Nerves are always high for the rivalry, so I'm hoping our two seniors can get us off to a great start.

The biggest trend in this Phase has been the 3rd Option By Committee phenomenon. Ryan, Seth, Andre, Mason, Miles and Tyler have each stepped up in different ways on different occasions. Ryan hit 18 straight shots. Mason solidified his reputation as a really good rebounder. Tyler earned more minutes, and some starts, with his on the ball defense. Miles broke out of a funk against State. Seth hit for 20, his high at Duke. Andre is the one guy who's not had a breakout game in January. I'm hoping for more consistency all the way around so there's no more 2 steps forward, one step back type of games. I hope to see mistakes eliminated and energy and focus remain high.

Focus and energy (related in many ways) are the biggest concerns for me for this group going forward. Sometimes the under-rated parts of the game are the biggest - setting screens and holding them long enough, help side rotations, finishing plays. This team is good and can play with anyone. But to win 3 games in 3 days in the ACC tournament will take focus on the little things and energy on the defensive end, or life is much harder than it ought to be. To beat 3-4 really good teams in the NCAAs will take flawless basketball for long stretches. Will the young guys step up? Will the seniors keep them focused? Will mistakes be eliminated? Will the majority of the guys play consistently well multiple games in a row? That is how Duke graduates from contender to favorite. This is the time of year when a team gets focused. I'm hoping we get there in Phase IV.

[jipops]

Defense is everything now. We have our offensive deficiencies and I'm not sure there is really much we can do about it now. But the defense has to keep getting better.

We heard at the beginning of the year how this season's team was going to be better than the 2010 title team. Well, as of right now it isn't. We don't have the same offensive efficiency. Again, not much can be done about this now - we just don't have the ball handling personnel. And we don't have quite the same defensive efficiency. This I think we can continue to improve on. It is quite possible that we are about at the same level of efficiency at both ends as we were last season. But I do think the defense has to get better over a full 40 minutes.

[Newton_14]

Defense is everything now. We have our offensive deficiencies and I'm not sure there is really much we can do about it now. But the defense has to keep getting better.

We heard at the beginning of the year how this season's team was going to be better than the 2010 title team. Well, as of right now it isn't. We don't have the same offensive efficiency. Again, not much can be done about this now - we just don't have the ball handling personnel. And we don't have quite the same defensive efficiency. This I think we can continue to improve on. It is quite possible that we are about at the same level of efficiency at both ends as we were last season. But I do think the defense has to get better over a full 40 minutes.

Considering we lost Kyrie, it is a little unfair to state people's pre-season expectations were offbase. If Kyrie had not gone down we very likely would be better today than we were last year.

I disagree on offensive improvement. There is plenty of time left to get better on both offense and defense. Our offense in the first half of the last 2 games, and especially the Maryland game, was really good, and was a different approach than we had been seeing.

My two keys for the 2nd half of the season are: 1.Improve the ball movement and sharing on offense to take advantage of all of our offensive weapons, including the recent trend to feed the post more often; and 2. Improve the team defense, by stopping penetration into the heart of the lane, and help defenders closing faster.

If we can do those two things, we will go up a level from where we are now, and become incredibly hard to beat. (realizing we have only lost 2 times, both on the road, as we are right now)

[loran16]

The Phase is over no? Time for the recap, right?

(1)Will Duke stay healthy?

Aside from Kyrie, yes.

(2) How well will we diversify our offense?

Still working on this, it appears a new person steps up each game aside from the big 2, most recently Seth, Mason, and Ryan.

(3) How will the meaningful minutes be distributed?

Again, still not clear....TT was getting around 10 minutes a game, and then got 3 last game. The minutes of the bigs are unclear.

Only Nolan and Kyle (near 40/game) are clear in minutes per game.

(4) Deeeeeeeefense

Yep, still there. Needs work at times, but it's been pretty good.

(5) Will we develop a killer instinct?

Well, Nolan Has!

(6) Will Mason bounce back?

Not really....he's had a few good games here and there, but still inconsistent.

(7) We need a bucket really bad, how do we get it?

2 words: Nolan. Smith. Nuff Said.

[Saratoga2]

The Miami II game marks the beginning of phase IV. I am not sure who will create the post but look forward to it soon.

[epoulsen]

"5) Will we develop a killer instinct?[/B]

Well, Nolan Has! "

Couldn't agree more. The ability to smell the blood in the water and just put the game away is the trademark of a well developed, mature team. After watching the game on Wednesday we actually may have it. Once we overcame the 14 pt lead and took the lead ourselves we never gave it back and at no point did I ever feel we were going to lose it. Killer instict doesn't necessarily mean "blow out" (though it would be nice), it just means putting the other team on their back, and then putting your foot on their throat and not letting them get back up. I think at least a few players other than Nolan understand this, like Seth and Kyle.