The 2nd best team in the ACC (a group project)

[JasonEvans]

Over the past few days, I have been working with some of my fellow posters on this board on a little project. The idea was to discuss who the 2nd best team in the ACC would be this season. Each of my fellow posters is constructing a case for each team and will post it in this thread. Then, the rest of us can comment upon it. Once all the "evidence" has been submitted, I will open a poll in this thread so the community can begin voting.

Here are the nominees and their, "defenders" --

Maryland - GW67
FSU- Devildeac
BC- DukieinBrasil
UNC- Boozer
NC St- Kedsy
Miami- Loran16
Va Tech- JasonEvans

As each of them puts their arguments into this thread, I encourage the rest of you to comment and add your own thoughts. If someone wants to make a case for another ACC team, feel free but none of us felt there was another reasonable nominee based on what we have seen so far this season.

I'll probably open the poll this evening.

--Jason "hope everyone enjoys this" Evans

[loran16]

I'm cheating a little here; I don't really think Miami, as they currently are playing, is the 2nd best team in the ACC right now. Probably not even close. But the team has a lot of potential and could be there at year's end, so I've chosen them as my team for this post.

Miami's Current Record:

Miami's Current Record does not look like that of a team that should be the #2 team in the ACC. Currently they are the 8th ranked team in the ACC according to Pomeroy (#66 overall) and have a not great record. Miami's record consists of:


Wins over potential-tourney teams:
Home v West Virginia (Pomeroy Rank #17)

Wins over other decent teams:
Home v Ole Miss (Pomeroy Rank #62)

Bad Losses:
@Rutgers (lost by 16 points)

Acceptable Losses:
Semi-Home v UCF (6 points),
@Memphis (4 point game)

Not really a record that says the #2 team in a major conference, but the potential is obvious when you look at the individual players on the team:

Miami's Offense:
Here's a fun exercise, what do you think about these two players and their importance to their teams?
MYSTERY PLAYER A:
20.6% Offensive Rebound%, 26.3% DRebound%, 13.4% Turnover Rate, 57.8% eFG%, 5.9% Block Percentage,
6 Fouls Committed Per 40 minutes, 5.7 Fouls Drawn per 40 Minutes, gets a Free throw on 53.9% of all shots, and 70.9% FT%
PLAYER A's BACKUP:
6.4% ORebound%, 16.7% DRebound%, 60.6% eFG%, 26.5% Turnover Rate, 4.1% Block Rate,
7.9 Fouls Committed Per 40, 3.0 Fouls Drawn per 40 Minutes, gets to the FT line on 45.5% of shots and has a 33.3% FT%

MYSTERY PLAYER B:
21.4% ORebound%, 24.8% DRebound%, 63.8% eFG%, 21.5% Turnover Rate, 4.0% Block Rate,
7.4 Fouls Committed Per 40, 3.6 Fouls Drawn per 40, gets to the FT Line on 55.3% of shots and had a 55.1% FT%.
PLAYER B's BACKUP:
11.1% ORebound%, 22.5% DRebound%, 56.4% eFG%, 22.9% Turnover Rate, 3.9% Block Rate,
3.9 Fouls Committed Per 40, 1.8 Fouls Drawn per 40, gets to the FT Line on 39.9% of shots and had a 66.1% FT%.


Player A would appear slightly better than Player B. Both players are great offensive rebounders who also clean up well the defensive glass, who can score well when they shoot and who foul too often. Player A however has a really small turnover rate for a big man, draws more fouls (by far), and shoot much better from the free throw line.

But Player A is much more valuable to his team than Player B, as the dropoff from him to his backup is much larger than Player B. Player A's backup has basically no offensive boarding skill, isn't great on the defensive boards, turns the ball over a lot, can't shoot FTs, doesn't draw fouls, and FOULS A LOT. Player B's backup is not a great offensive rebounder but he is acceptable, and is strong on the defensive glass. Moreover, he doesn't commit fouls and can hit his Free Throws.

Player A is Miami's Reggie Johnson, with his backup being Julian Gamble.
Player B is 2010 Brian Zoubek, with the backup being Miles Plumlee.

Now this comparison is a bit off, in that Johnson has been feeding off of weaker opponents, while Zoubek's statistics include ACC play and the National Title Run. But Johnson has maintained such numbers against the few tough teams on Miami's schedule, and they are a huge leap from where they are last year. Because of Johnson, Miami is the #27 best offense in the Country, as they are the #29 Offensive Rebounding team in the country. This is a big jump from Miami's okay offensive-boarding they had last year.

But Johnson has issues staying on the floor. In the UCF game, Johnson played only 16 minutes and fouled out, paving the way for the UCF victory. And his backup, Gamble, just is a major drop-off in talent. Miami does have a potentially very nice backup in Freshman Raphael Akpejiori, who appears to be a potentially good rebounder, but he only plays 12.5% of Miami's minutes and fouls incredibly often.

Aside from Johnson, Miami's Durand Scott, Malcolm Grant, and Adrian Thomas are all pretty good players who are very efficient on offense. But the team relies upon him: If he's in the game, they're a force to be reckoned with. If he's out of the game, they're a small team that can't get 2nd shots and isn't anything special. So the question going forward is: Could Johnson learn to reduce the fouls he commits, so that he can stay on the floor? Or perhaps could his backup, particularly the interesting freshman Akpejiori, step up the play so that his absence isn't so costly? If the answer to either of those questions is yes, Miami will have a high-powered offense to rival any non-Duke team in the ACC.

Defense
Where Miami is good on Offense, they're...not so good on Defense.
They're #110 in Defensive efficiency as they're not even in the top 100 in ANY of the Defensive Four Factors:

Opponent's Effective FG%: 46.6% (106th in the Country)
Opponent's Turnover Rate: 18.9% (271st in the Country)
Defensive Rebounding %: 33.0% (176th in the Country)
Opponent's Free Throw %: 38.6% (188th in the Country)

Needless to say...not so good. But this is an insanely young Miami Team (3 Juniors + 1 walk on, 1 Senior, 5 Freshman, and 3 Sophomores) that has plenty of time to improve, and Frank Haith's team was the #47 Defensive team in the country only 2 years ago. It's certainly possible that the team will fully understand his defensive system and become at least a decent defensive team.

If they do improve defensively, then the good offense that Miami brings to the table will make Miami a worthy tournament team and in this bad ACC, that could be enough to make them the #2 team after Duke.

[ice-9]

Over the past few days, I have been working with some of my fellow posters on this board on a little project. The idea was to discuss who the 2nd best team in the ACC would be this season.

Great idea for a thread! I would add that it might be helpful to define what "best" is -- is it the second best playing right now, second best playing by the end of the season, second best ACC record, second best overall record or second best poll/stats numbers? I can see different teams laying claim to the various definitions.

[gw67]

As we about to enter ACC play, no team has clearly identified itself as the 2nd best team in the ACC (We all know which team is clearly the best). Most, including myself, have predicted that Maryland would be a middle-of-the-league team this year; however, a case can be made for the Terps to be the 2nd best team after the Devils.

Geek Factor: As of games through Monday, December 27th, Pomeroy has the Terps ranked 20th which is the 2nd best in the ACC behind Duke and well ahead of UNC (28th) and Florida State (31st). They are a good defensive team and are ranked 9th among all teams defensively. Pomeroy predicts that they will wind up at 21-10 overall and 10-6 in conference.

Pomeroy is certainly a good indicator of a team’s offensive and defensive efficiencies and I admire the folks who attempt to rank teams according to various analytical approaches; however, as I told one of my sons this past summer while discussing the merits of various baseball players and he was throwing around WHIPs and WARs, I primarily rely on EYES, standard statistics and years of experience watching the game. So, while Maryland has a good Geek Factor, the following are based on watching them play early in the season.

Defensive Play: Maryland ranks highly in nearly all defensive stats (field goal %, 3-point FG %, rebounding, blocked shots, and steals) when compared to other ACC teams. Their three seniors and Mosely are better than average defensive players and Williams has improved significantly over his freshman year. The only weak defensive player among the top nine players, IMO, is Stoglin and he more than makes up for it with his offensive play.

Offensive Play: The Terps are an above average offensive team. They rank 53rd in offensive efficiency determined by Pomeroy (5th in ACC) and are second to Duke in scoring offense among ACC teams. While not quite as good as last year’s team, they are a good passing team (2nd to Duke in assists) and they are getting better at running the flex offense to get the ball into Williams on the post and working the ball for open shots on the perimeter. For those who haven’t seen him play, Williams has improved dramatically over his freshman year. I don’t expect him to continue to have double-doubles every game during the ACC season but he has transformed himself into a tireless worker on the boards and a good post player. Bowie and Gregory are complementary offensive players and Tucker/Stoglin are among the best offensive bench players in the ACC. Mosely has had a slow start but I expect him to return to his sophomore form.

Overall: The Terps stubbed their toe with an opening loss at home against BC. What else is new? They routinely start slowly and BC emulated Donahue’s Cornell team with their 3-point barrage. I expect them to lose their next ACC game at Duke. Coach K long ago figured out how to defense Williams’ flex offense and it requires an extraordinary effort by individual players to keep the game close at CIS. At that point, I expect many of the Terps and ACC fans to write them off; however, I see them winning 10-11 of their final 14 ACC games to wind up in 2nd place. This optimism is based on assumed improvement by their young players and better efficiency with Bowie playing the off guard as well as Tucker, Stoglin, Padgett and Weijs making more contributions off the bench.

gw67

[gumbomoop]

I'm cheating a little here; I don't really think Miami, as they currently are playing, is the 2nd best team in the ACC right now. Probably not even close. But the team has a lot of potential and could be there at year's end, so I've chosen them as my team for this post.

.... and in this bad ACC, that could be enough to make them the #2 team after Duke.

I admire your willingness to make the case for a so-far disappointing Miami. In summer pre-season thinking, I was surprised by anyone who didn't see Miami's talent [or so I thought], as I had them at #5-6 in ACC. Right now, even in "this bad ACC," it takes your willingness to be a good sport to make a hypothetical case for them as #2.

Would it help to predict which games they could win to get to, say 10-6, a maybe-likely record for 2d place? In looking at their unbalanced schedule, one might predict they could get 7 wins at home. We should probably assume a home loss to Duke, though frankly they need to give the other 7 opponents their best shot at home, rather than playing lackadaisically against most everyone but Duke. Finding 3 away wins isn't a snap, but maybe @Wake, @GaTech, and, uh, back to you!

[Newton_14]

First off, I chose the Tarheels for this exercise due to the fact that I had previously gone on record as eliminating them from 2nd Place contention in another thread. So I am attempting to convince myself as much as anyone else.

So who is going to finish the ACC Regular Season in 2nd Place? The UNC Tarheels. Here’s why:

The Schedule-

Home & Away- They play Clemson, BC, NC State, FSU, and Duke twice each.
I figure there are 3 to 5 possible wins there. Clemson will remain 0 for forever in CH, they will take BC, and NC State in CH as well. They could easily steal 1 or 2 of the road games with Clemson, BC, and NC State, but I will give them only 1 of those 3. That gives them 4 wins. With FSU and Duke, the Heels are staring 1 and 3 in the face, providing they can take FSU at home. With or without Kyrie, it will take some doing for them to upset Duke, though it is certainly not impossible. I believe they come out of all those games with 5 wins.

Once On The Road - with UVA, GaTech, and Miami
I will give them the GaTech game, and a split with the other 2. So that is 2 more wins to get them to 7.

Once At Home- with VaTech (6 able bodies left?), Wake (Blue Hose anyone?), and Maryland.
Maryland has had good success lately against the Heels, but I like the Heels at home. They finish with 10 wins which in a year like this will be good enough for 2nd Place.

The How and Why

How Do They Do This- you ask?
First, they are not going to repeat last year. There are challenges, but unlike last year, there are solutions. They are not and will not be a Top 10 Team, however, they simply do not have to be to finish 2nd in the worst ACC League Top to Bottom in Decades. Despite all the recent gaffe's, Roy Williams is still a HOF Coach with a great track record. Even though he will still struggle with this group of kids, he will find a way to prevent last year from repeating itself.

Perimeter
While their perimeter is weak, Strickland is starting to separate himself from the others and make plays. Marshall, while not fast, is a very capable PG who values the ball. He and Strickland will solidify the backcourt enough to where the interior guys can win them games. Barnes is not an AA, not an All ACC guy, and not even the best freshman in the league. Despite the horrible start, he still gives them a very athletic wing that can rebound, score in the paint, and run the break. MacDonald and Bullock can provide outside shooting off the bench to spell Strickland and Barnes, and Drew II can sub in for Marshall just enough to keep Marshall fresh. MacDonald is also their best perimeter defender, and like Strickland, he is also starting to show some promise on the offensive side garnering 14 points against Rutgers on 4 of 7 shooting from deep.

Frontcourt-
Strength of the team, with one of the best low post scorers in the ACC in Zellar, and the best shotblocker in the league in Henson. Justin Knox brings toughness and rebounding off the bench to make up the 3 man rotation. That is plenty of depth especially considering Barnes can slide down and provide minutes at the 4 spot.

Rotation in Conference

A 9 man rotation with Drew, Bullock, Macdonald and Knox off the bench, is a formidable team. Again, they are not a Top 10 team, but they are showing signs that they can round into a solid Top 25 team. In another year in the league, this group might not be enough to bring home the silver, but as weak as this league is, Ol Roy has more than enough to get it done.

[DukieInBrasil]

Well, partly because somebody HAS TO.
So far what BC has shown us has been pretty good, losing only one bad game, at home to Yale in their 2nd game of the season, and one “good” loss to Wisconsin (now #24) which was on a neutral court. They’ve got one ACC win already, over MD, and a whole slew of wins over teams from power conferences or with good histories. In fact, their scheduling looks somewhat reminiscent of how K likes to schedule: put teams on there that could be opponents in a 1st or 2nd round NCAA tourney game. “Good” or “decent” wins include: Texas A&M (11-1 #24 as of last week), Cal (6-5), Indiana (9-4), Mass (7-4), Providence (11-2), MD, and Bucknell (6-7). Even St Francis has not been so bad (6-5, 2-0 NEC). Bryant (who?) and Holy Cross are the only 2 teams that they’ve played that are truly cup-cakes (2-22 combined). I’m kinda surprised that they are not ranked in the AP or Coaches polls, though KenPom only has them ranked at #47 with MD, UNC, FSU and VT ahead of them. Sagarin thinks much better of BC, putting them at 35, ahead of UNC, FSU, MD and VT. Kinda weird how those 2 systems value the teams so differently. So they’ve acquitted themselves pretty well against competition they’ve scheduled.

Which goes into my second point: Good Coaching. Donahue got his team from Cornell in the Ivy League into the Sweet 16 last year by getting pretty close to every last ounce of performance out of the talent he had on the team. Undoubtedly, his BC squad has more talent, so the question stands: will he be able to get as much out of it as he has shown in the past? I believe that he’ll get enough out of that squad to finish 2nd in the ACC and probably get a pretty good bid in the NCAAs.

Finally, a look at The Roster. They’ve got a pretty legit “star” player in Reggie Jackson (not of HRs in pinstripes fame) who is having an All-ACC type year so far with 19+ ppg on ridiculously efficient shooting to rival Andre Dawkins, to go with 4.4rpg and 5apg. That’s on par with what Kyle Singler has been putting up so far. After RJ, they have a pretty balanced squad by all accounts. Trapani, Paris and Raji all average between 11 and 13 ppg with Josh Southern and Danny Rubin scoring 9.2 and 7.4 ppg respectively. 3 other guys are getting 10+ mpg, for a pretty solid 9 man rotation. In a purely numbers way, the BC squad bears a lot of similarities to the non-Kyrie Duke squad. Except that BC doesn’t seem to be a dominating rebounding team, with nobody averaging more than 6.3rpg. They appear to be handling the ball well with a team-wide 1.6:1 a/to. Will their ballhandling hold up in the ACC (more importantly against Duke)? Will the lack of big bodies allow for too many opposing rebounds?

The fact that they beat MD already and have beaten TxAM and some other teams from big-time hoops conferences suggests to me that BC has a real shot at making a good run in the ACC schedule, that they’ve managed to hide some weaknesses and accentuate their strengths, which is exactly what a good coach is supposed to do. Donahue has some talent and some experience to work with and I think he’ll have this BC team playing really well by the time the ACC tourney starts.

[DukieInBrasil]

Offensive Play[/B]: The Terps are an above average offensive team. They rank 53rd in offensive efficiency determined by Pomeroy (5th in ACC) and are second to Duke in scoring offense among ACC teams. While not quite as good as last year’s team, they are a good passing team (2nd to Duke in assists) and they are getting better at running the flex offense to get the ball into Williams on the post and working the ball for open shots on the perimeter. For those who haven’t seen him play, Williams has improved dramatically over his freshman year. I don’t expect him to continue to have double-doubles every game during the ACC season but he has transformed himself into a tireless worker on the boards and a good post player. Bowie and Gregory are complementary offensive players and Tucker/Stoglin are among the best offensive bench players in the ACC. Mosely has had a slow start but I expect him to return to his sophomore form.

Overall: The Terps stubbed their toe with an opening loss at home against BC. What else is new? They routinely start slowly and BC emulated Donahue’s Cornell team with their 3-point barrage. I expect them to lose their next ACC game at Duke. Coach K long ago figured out how to defense Williams’ flex offense and it requires an extraordinary effort by individual players to keep the game close at CIS. At that point, I expect many of the Terps and ACC fans to write them off; however, I see them winning 10-11 of their final 14 ACC games to wind up in 2nd place. This optimism is based on assumed improvement by their young players and better efficiency with Bowie playing the off guard as well as Tucker, Stoglin, Padgett and Weijs making more contributions off the bench.
gw67
Losing their first game to a competitor for the #2 spot in the ACC doesn't help, for sure. I'm kinda surprised you didn't give more ink to Jordan Williams, from what little I've seen of him this year, he looked dyn-o-mite. If he is able to maintain or even raise his level of play vs ACC competition, he could have a legit shot at All-ACC or even ACC POY.

[devildeac]

Your Honor (to no one in particular) and ladies and gentlemen of the jury, I am here to present the case for the F$U Seminoles as the team most likely to finsih 2nd in the ACC this year in MBB.

General thoughts-This is a fairly experienced team with 6 upperclassmen seeing > 10 MPG so far. I think some of that will change a bit as the league games start rolling. They are "long" at most positions with five guys 6'8" or taller playing regularly, though the prognosis of Gibson with his hand injury is questionable. Kitchen, Dulkys and Snaer form a tall backcourt. They obviously do not have instant offense Douglas anymore or the enormous Alabi either but Hamilton is an experienced coach who has his team playing defense.

Some stats:

F$U fg%-44 vs foes 34
F$U 3fg-34% vs foes 27% (are you kidding me?)
F$U +8 rebounding margin
F$U +13 PPG avg. scoring margin at 73 PPG vs their opponents at 60 PPG.
Their TO and their opponents are about a wash.
They have 2 guys each averaging about 2 blocks/game.

Quality wins: Clemson by 6 at home (I guess the Tiggers count, even though no one wanted them in this project); Hawaii by 8 in Hawaii; Baylor by 8 last week in Hawaii.
Quality losses: Florida by 4 at home; tOSU by 14 at home (they held the current #2 team in the nation to 58 points!); Butler by 3 in Hawaii.
Bad losses: none so far

Schedule: favorable. I'll go out on a limb and say they will win out at home beating NCSU, BC, Weak Forest, Clemson (played already), UVA, unc, Miami and upsetting us as they have several times in the past when we were highly ranked (and yes, I have seen some really badly officiated games down there when we played them). I think they'll beat WFU and GT away as those 2 teams are just bad. I think they'll go down at VT, Miami, Clemson, unc, Murland and NCSU. I could be convinced to swap a Duke victory there for an F$U win at VT considering how decimated the Chokies are with injuries. I think they'll finish 10-6 which will be good enough for 2nd place in the final standings. I'd bet a tie with unc as the 'holes just have too much talent (and STILL play most, if not all their games 8 on 5;):rolleyes:) in such a weak league this year to have much worse than a 10-6 log.

Conclusion: These guys will ugly their way to a fair # of wins this year with what looks like a pretty rugged D. Currently they are Pomeroy #33 which is 4th in the ACC and not far behind the Terps and unc. They are Sagarin #43 which is also 4th behind BC and unc. Both those #s are fairly consistent over the last few weeks also and their performance in Hawaii makes me just a bit worried about them this year.

Thank you for your time and attention. I rest my case.

[Kedsy]

Why am I picking NC State as the 2nd best team in the ACC? Well, their performance to date certainly doesn't warrant such optimism, but I don't think we can tell very much from their performance to date, for two reasons. First, Tracy Smith. True, he's only one player, but in many ways he was (and remains) the key to their season. In 2009-10, Smith had the ball in his hands more than any other State player (in fact he was fifth in the ACC in usage, behind only Greivis Vasquez, Malcolm Delaney, Al-Farouq Aminu, and Dwayne Collins). He led the team in minutes, points, rebounds, FG%, blocks, and almost steals (1.1 to Javi Gonzalez's 1.2), as well as Offensive rebound %, defensive rebound %, turnover %, eFG%, and FT Rate, and was State's leading returning player in offensive rating. But, if you can believe it, he's even more important to State's team than merely leading the team in pretty much every statistical category. Of State's top 9 players, Smith is one of only two upperclassman (along with Javi Gonzalez), along with four sophomores and three freshmen.

In other words, although he plays a different position, Smith is State's equivalent of last year's Greivis Vasquez. With Greivis, Maryland finished tied for first in the ACC last season. Without him, would they have finished as high as eighth? I doubt it. The fact that State has played as "well" as they have so far, to me says things will be looking up once Smith returns.

The other reason I am discounting State's 2010-11 performance to date is the team's extreme youth. Eight freshmen and sophomores among their 11 players who get any minutes at all. Teams like that tend to look a lot better as the season wears on, and I suspect State will follow history in that regard. They're going to be a tough out in the post-season tournaments.

One other thing about State's performance to date: don't read too much into the blowout at Wisconsin. Sometimes, especially with a young team, things get out of hand. It even happens to Duke every now and again (Clemson, 2009; Georgetown and NC State, 2010). It doesn't define the upside of the team.

So, now that I've said what doesn't matter, let me explain what does: In my opinion, other than Duke, NC State is the most well-rounded and talented team in the ACC. They have two very solid, if unspectacular, point guards in Javi Gonzalez and Ryan Harrow. They're tough inside with Smith and a vastly improved Richard Howell (almost 14 rebounds per 40 minutes; and 15th in the ACC in ORtg). They have immense athletic upside in CJ Leslie and Lorenzo Brown. They have a big-time sharpshooter in Scott Wood (41%+ from three-land, on almost 7 attempts per game). And they have serviceable depth in CJ Williams and DeShawn Painter. They match up favorably with every team in the league (other than Duke), from a size standpoint as well as athletic and basketball talent.

State's league schedule is not a favorable one, with two games each against Duke, UNC, Florida State, and Clemson, and road games against Maryland and BC. But I don't think that alone will hold them back. If they hold serve at home against all but Duke (which they should) and beat Wake on the road (ditto), then if they can manage to win 2 road games out of BC, Clemson, Maryland, and Virginia they'll get to 10 wins, which in my mind will be enough to snatch at least a share of 2nd place. It won't be easy to win two of those games, but State has the talent and at least three of those games should be close. The January 11 game against BC will probably tell us whether my prediction of NC State as the 2nd best ACC team has a realistic chance of coming to fruition.

[gw67]

Losing their first game to a competitor for the #2 spot in the ACC doesn't help, for sure. I'm kinda surprised you didn't give more ink to Jordan Williams, from what little I've seen of him this year, he looked dyn-o-mite. If he is able to maintain or even raise his level of play vs ACC competition, he could have a legit shot at All-ACC or even ACC POY.

DukieInBrasil,

You are correct that Jordan Williams is having an excellent year. Prior to tonight’s game, he is averaging 18.2 ppg and 11.9 rpg and has had 10 double-doubles. He reminds me of Lonny Baxter without the supporting cast that Baxter had. Like Baxter, the Terps appear to cheat on his height. He is closer to 6’8” rather than 6’10”, IMO. He has a great motor and works hard for rebounds and making himself available for passes. While not a particularly good jumper, he has great hands, has a strong foundation and runs the floor very well often beating opposing centers down court. He is also an engaging young man during interviews. I am not a good judge but I don’t see him as an NBA type due to the lack of size and quickness for an inside player. Given his attitude and reported work ethic, I see him having a terrific college career.

gw67

[Kedsy]

DukieInBrasil,

You are correct that Jordan Williams is having an excellent year. Prior to tonight’s game, he is averaging 18.2 ppg and 11.9 rpg and has had 10 double-doubles. He reminds me of Lonny Baxter without the supporting cast that Baxter had. Like Baxter, the Terps appear to cheat on his height. He is closer to 6’8” rather than 6’10”, IMO. He has a great motor and works hard for rebounds and making himself available for passes. While not a particularly good jumper, he has great hands, has a strong foundation and runs the floor very well often beating opposing centers down court. He is also an engaging young man during interviews. I am not a good judge but I don’t see him as an NBA type due to the lack of size and quickness for an inside player. Given his attitude and reported work ethic, I see him having a terrific college career.

gw67

Don't sell him "short." Buck Williams had a fine NBA career.

[JasonEvans]

Great idea for a thread! I would add that it might be helpful to define what "best" is -- is it the second best playing right now, second best playing by the end of the season, second best ACC record, second best overall record or second best poll/stats numbers? I can see different teams laying claim to the various definitions.

I think I am looking for "finish with the 2nd best record in the league." anything else is subjective but 2nd best record is an absolute.

-Jason "I'll get my Va Tech writeup this afternoon, I hope" Evans

[loran16]

I think I am looking for "finish with the 2nd best record in the league." anything else is subjective but 2nd best record is an absolute.

-Jason "I'll get my Va Tech writeup this afternoon, I hope" Evans

For the record, my post was based upon 2nd best in the league, not 2nd best record. That's why I didn't actually look at Miami's upcoming schedule.

[Newton_14]

For the record, my post was based upon 2nd best in the league, not 2nd best record. That's why I didn't actually look at Miami's upcoming schedule.

It may be semantic's so no biggie. I thought the objective was to make a case for our assigned team to finish 2nd in the ACC Regular Season. That is what I based my post on.
Either way, your post was fine imo.

[Bob Green]

I'm kinda surprised you didn't give more ink to Jordan Williams, from what little I've seen of him this year, he looked dyn-o-mite. If he is able to maintain or even raise his level of play vs ACC competition, he could have a legit shot at All-ACC or even ACC POY.

Jordan Williams is #1 in the ACC in rebounding (11.9 rpg) and #3 in scoring (18.2 ppg). I agree he is an early candidate for ACC POY and will go as far as saying he is currently the leading candidate.

In regard to the thread topic, I would've voted for Virginia Tech in the preseason but the injury bug has bit them hard so either UNC or FSU would be my current pick. I'm still not sold on UNC once ACC play commences due to their youth so I guess I'm leaning toward FSU.

[devildeac]

Jordan Williams is #1 in the ACC in rebounding (11.9 rpg) and #3 in scoring (18.2 ppg). I agree he is an early candidate for ACC POY and will go as far as saying he is currently the leading candidate.

In regard to the thread topic, I would've voted for Virginia Tech in the preseason but the injury bug has bit them hard so either UNC or FSU would be my current pick. I'm still not sold on UNC once ACC play commences due to their youth so I guess I'm leaning toward FSU.

Ahh, great minds thinking alike. Or is that feeble minds thinking alike?:rolleyes:

[gw67]

At that point, I expect many of the Terps and ACC fans to write them off; however, I see them winning 10-11 of their final 14 ACC games to wind up in 2nd place. This optimism is based on assumed improvement by their young players and better efficiency with Bowie playing the off guard as well as Tucker, Stoglin, Padgett and Weijs making more contributions off the bench.


As noted above, I predicted that the Terps would win 10-11 of their final 15 ACC games. Since this seems pretty far fetched, I have listed the wins/losses/up-in-the-air games below:

Wins:
Home (6) – Va Tech, Clemson, Wake, NC State, Fla State, Virginia
Away (4) – Wake, Ga. Tech, BC, Miami

Losses:
Home(1) – Duke
Away (2) – UNC, Duke

Up-in-the-air:
Away(2) – Virginia Tech, Virginia

Maryland normally plays the Devils close in College Park but the disparity in talent this year is too great. Virginia and Virginia Tech always seem to play the Terps tough on their home courts although a win by Maryland in Charlottesville is not out of the question. BC is a nice team but the likelihood of them again shooting lights out from three-point territory seems remote to me. Even with their torrid outside shooting, the Terps led with a couple minutes to play.

By the way, an 8-8 record is still likely but with a weak ACC this year, I don't consider this prediction to be that crazy even if Maryland has to defeat all those other "2nd best teams".

gw67

[Bob Green]

Ahh, great minds thinking alike. Or is that feeble minds thinking alike?:rolleyes:

I'll vote for the feeble minds option.

[Wander]

Preseason, my list was:

1 Duke
2 FSU
3 UNC
4 Clemson
5 Miami
6 Virginia Tech
7 NC State
8 Maryland
9 Boston College
10 Georgia Tech
11 Virginia
12 Wake

I see no reason to change my top three, so my vote is for FSU (though the Florida loss has me just a little worried).

[ndkjr70]

I thought I'd chime in about Miami;

I'm a Duke fan, and I have been since birth. Both of my parents graduated from Duke University, and they proudly recall that my first three words were "mom, dad, and duke". There are plenty of statistical guru's on here that could wipe my arse with Duke knowledge, but I know my fair share.

That being said, I attend the University of Miami. I'm now a second-semester freshman studying Architecture, (a program that Duke, unfortunately, does not offer). And, while it's easy to talk about Miami by looking at a couple score-sheets and MAYBE one game of tape (against Memphis), I figured I would at least share my 2-cents considering the fact that I doubt very many posters have seen more games (on TV and in person) of this UM squad.

First, regardless of what the stats say, throw out any notion that Reggie is the most important member of this squad. He has, without any doubt, had a bloated stat-line because of the opponents he has played against. Don't get me wrong: I think the future is bright for the redshirt sophomore, but the dude is pushing 310 pounds, and trust me: he looks bigger. His shot isn't there, his quickness isn't there, his basketball IQ isn't there... he has taken advantage of mediocre basketball squads with big-men either not big enough or not athletic enough to handle him. He will get destroyed in ACC play; that isn't a prediction: it's a guarentee.

THE man on Miami is Durand Scott; the kid can flat out play. If he's having a good night, he has the potential to go Jack McClinton-or-Guiellermo Diaz-style Duke. But I can promise you one thing; the University of Miami is not the 2nd best team in the ACC. They're probably the 2nd best florida team in the ACC, to be honest. And that's coming from a huge fan.

And again, I don't have stats to back me up, but I figured you might like an account from someone who has actually seen every game they've played.

[loran16]

I thought I'd chime in about Miami;

I'm a Duke fan, and I have been since birth. Both of my parents graduated from Duke University, and they proudly recall that my first three words were "mom, dad, and duke". There are plenty of statistical guru's on here that could wipe my arse with Duke knowledge, but I know my fair share.

That being said, I attend the University of Miami. I'm now a second-semester freshman studying Architecture, (a program that Duke, unfortunately, does not offer). And, while it's easy to talk about Miami by looking at a couple score-sheets and MAYBE one game of tape (against Memphis), I figured I would at least share my 2-cents considering the fact that I doubt very many posters have seen more games (on TV and in person) of this UM squad.

First, regardless of what the stats say, throw out any notion that Reggie is the most important member of this squad. He has, without any doubt, had a bloated stat-line because of the opponents he has played against. Don't get me wrong: I think the future is bright for the redshirt sophomore, but the dude is pushing 310 pounds, and trust me: he looks bigger. His shot isn't there, his quickness isn't there, his basketball IQ isn't there... he has taken advantage of mediocre basketball squads with big-men either not big enough or not athletic enough to handle him. He will get destroyed in ACC play; that isn't a prediction: it's a guarentee.

THE man on Miami is Durand Scott; the kid can flat out play. If he's having a good night, he has the potential to go Jack McClinton-or-Guiellermo Diaz-style Duke. But I can promise you one thing; the University of Miami is not the 2nd best team in the ACC. They're probably the 2nd best florida team in the ACC, to be honest. And that's coming from a huge fan.

And again, I don't have stats to back me up, but I figured you might like an account from someone who has actually seen every game they've played.

Scott is terrific, undoubtedly. I didn't mean to gloss over him so. But I'd disagree about Johnson. He has clearly feasted on weaker teams. But that stat-line is real. And when he was on the floor vs. tough opponents (Memphis particularly, but UCF for his short time as well), he got the boards off the offensive glass. No one else on the team does.

My comparison of Johnson to Zoubek is apt here. The 09-10 Duke Team had a great big 3, but that wasn't what put them over the top. What did, was Zoubek, the #1 offensive rebounder in the Country (Johnson is currently #2 in the Country so far). This despite, Zoubek not having a great shot.

Similarly, Scott may be the best scorer. But what can really raise Miami higher is the fact that Johnson is in the lane, gobbling up offensive boards, giving Scott and other guys 2nd chance points.

Miami isn't the #2 team in the ACC right now, but they have the potential to be. And as you point out, Johnson is only a sophomore, who is likely to improve as the year goes on.

[JasonEvans]

Ok, I have been so busy with some work stuff (Jason has a job!?!?!) and family stuff (Jason has a family?!?!?) that I simply did not have time to put together the Va Tech summary. Frankly, they are so injured and have so underperformed, I don't think they would have gotten much support anyway.

Still, the poll is now alive allowing all of you to vote for your pick. If you want to vote for Va Tech or Clemson or some other team not "defended" in this thread, pick "other" and explain yourself in the thread.

I want to thank the fine posters who wrote the summaries of each team. I hope we will have continued discussion about this for the next week or so, as the ACC schedule gets underway.

-Jason "I am lame!" Evans

[Kedsy]

Ok, I have been so busy with some work stuff (Jason has a job!?!?!) and family stuff (Jason has a family?!?!?) that I simply did not have time to put together the Va Tech summary. Frankly, they are so injured and have so underperformed, I don't think they would have gotten much support anyway.

Still, the poll is now alive allowing all of you to vote for your pick. If you want to vote for Va Tech or Clemson or some other team not "defended" in this thread, pick "other" and explain yourself in the thread.

I want to thank the fine posters who wrote the summaries of each team. I hope we will have continued discussion about this for the next week or so, as the ACC schedule gets underway.

-Jason "I am lame!" Evans

Not to nitpick, but shouldn't the title of the thread be: "Who will finish 2nd in the ACC this season"?

[jv001]

but I would have voted for them because I hate to say it, unc will finish 2nd. I figure they will win 10 games in spite of ole roy. But I couldn't make myself click in that little circle with unc in capital letters. So I voted for FSU, who is the next best team behind Duke and unc. If I could have my prayer answered, I hope unc finishes last. Go Duke!

[pfrduke]

Not to nitpick, but shouldn't the title of the thread be: "Who will finish 2nd in the ACC this season"?

Done and done.

[JasonEvans]

Done and done.

Good call, Kedsy. Thanks for doing that, pfr.

Now, everyone needs to vote!!

-Jason

[Bob Green]

Now, everyone needs to vote!!

-Jason

I voted for FSU. My reasoning is twofold: first, FSU plays in-your-face defense with solid athletes such as Chris Singleton and Derwin Kitchen; second, I'm not convinced UNC is up to the task.

The key to second place will be road performance as there are several teams capable of winning the majority of their home games the question becomes, which team is capable of going on the road and winning on their opponent's home court?

In January, FSU plays @Virginia Tech, @Miami and @ Clemson, while UNC plays @Virginia, @Georgia Tech and @Miami. I expect this thread will contain some lively discussion over the next several weeks as the ACC schedule kicks into high gear, but it will become really interesting in about a month when January turns into February.

[ncexnyc]

I'd like to take this moment and thank everyone who contributed their time and talent on this project. It's threads like this that makes DBR what it is.

As far as my vote goes, I like UNC's potential, but I'm going to cast my vote for FSU. Tough D will take you far, especially against younger, inexperienced teams.

[Bob Green]

I'll bump this back to the front page with the observation UNC is currently the leading vote receiver over FSU 17-15 with Maryland in 3rd Place at seven votes. I find the current results to be interesting but surprising as I would expect DBR participants to jump on any team other than UNC.

[Grey Devil]

I'll bump this back to the front page with the observation UNC is currently the leading vote receiver over FSU 17-15 with Maryland in 3rd Place at seven votes. I find the current results to be interesting but surprising as I would expect DBR participants to jump on any team other than UNC.

You're absolutely right, Bob!!! Don't give the Heels credit for anything... I just cast my vote for FSU. (Besides, I do think that FSU will be in second at the end of the season anyway.)

Grey Devil

[sagegrouse]

I'll bump this back to the front page with the observation UNC is currently the leading vote receiver over FSU 17-15 with Maryland in 3rd Place at seven votes. I find the current results to be interesting but surprising as I would expect DBR participants to jump on any team other than UNC.

I don't think you gain anything in sports, business, war, or politics by underestimating rivals or competitors. UNC has a ton of good players, and although it has not emerged as a really good team, the threat from the Tar Heels is real.

I had no problem rating UNC #2.

FSU has such offensive deficiencies that a winning streak is unlikely.

Duke has had Maryland's number the last few years, and I don't see the scrappy Terps as #2.

State has talent but has had even worse problems than UNC in teamwork.

VPI's injuries make them a huge questionmark.

Miami is a darkhorse, but I am not yet a believer. Tomorrow's game @Duke will tell us something

BC has had a good start, but I don't think it has the horses to compete.

Clemson is the best of the rest but not likely to challenge.

sagegrouse

[devildeac]

I'll bump this back to the front page with the observation UNC is currently the leading vote receiver over FSU 17-15 with Maryland in 3rd Place at seven votes. I find the current results to be interesting but surprising as I would expect DBR participants to jump on any team other than UNC.

Grudging. snarling, teeth-grinding, cussing-under-my breath respect for a talent-laden arch-rival never-to-be-counted out.:mad:




(And, BTW and for the record, if the 'holes went 0-16 in the acc, there would not be many happier fans than this poster.;))

[El_Diablo]

I voted for UNC, but I am not confident about that pick at all and think Maryland might pull it out with their easier schedule.

UNC is only 2-4 against top 100 teams (using Pomeroy's rankings), and one of those was College of Charleston (#83) at home...by five points. UNC has 14 of their 16 ACC games against top 100 teams. And if you narrow the range of opponents to the top 60, UNC is 1-4; they have 11 ACC games against top 60 opponents. While I could see an 11-5 or even a 12-4 conference record, I could also see them finishing their regular-season schedule 2-8 to end up in the middle of the ACC standings (or worse) on their way to another NIT appearance. Take a look at the potential outcomes over their final ten games:

L - @Boston College
L - Florida St.
L - @Duke
L - @Clemson
W - Wake Forest
W - Boston College
L - @North Carolina St.
L - Maryland
L - @Florida St.
L - Duke

This isn't really too much of a stretch. In fact, of these ten games, Pomeroy gives UNC greater than a 70% chance of winning only two of them (the ones I marked as Ws). I'll call those "safe wins." Overall, they have a >70% chance in only 6 total ACC games. But Maryland has a >70% chance in 9 remaining ACC games, and is otherwise favored in 3 more. And while Pomeroy predicts FSU, Maryland, and UNC to all finish at 10-6, the game-by-game predictions (taken individually) suggest otherwise. Here is how the ACC would end up if Pomeroy's individual game predictions hold true:

Duke 16-0 (16 safe wins)
Maryland 12-4 (9 safe wins)
UNC 12-4 (6 safe wins)
Clemson 11-5 (3 safe wins)
FSU 10-6 (7 safe wins)
BC 8-8 (5 safe wins)
VT 8-8 (3 safe wins)
Miami 7-9 (3 safe wins)
NC State 5-11 (0 safe wins)
Virginia 4-12 (1 safe win)
GT 3-13 (2 safe wins)
Wake 0-16 (0 safe wins)

Again, those "safe wins" merely refer to games in which the team has greater than a 70% chance of winning (or has already won). There are bound to be a number of upsets, even among those supposedly safe wins. Add in injuries and other variables, and it clouds the picture even more. UNC may have a higher upside than Maryland, but it appears that their schedule also gives them a lower downside as well. So IMO either one is a reasonable pick at this stage, as is FSU. I don't know about Clemson though; despite being favored in 11 games, a number of them are narrow wins...and it's Clemson, after all. :D

[DukieInBrasil]

BC just added a little more spice to their sauce in the argument for second place. I know So. Carolina ain't the best but yet another major conference foe (now 8-4) goes down to the Eagles. On the flip side of that, they lost to URI (9-4) just prior to this win. Both of those games are listed as road games, so getting a split out of that isn't so bad. BC just might have enough moxy to grab the 2nd place ring.

[Bob Green]

UNC may have a higher upside than Maryland, but it appears that their schedule also gives them a lower downside as well.

Nice "final 10 games" analysis here. Carolina still has a lot to prove and no proven leaders to show them the way. They have talent and depth, but team chemistry and leadership are still big question marks!

[gumbomoop]

I continue to subscribe to Olympic Fan's earlier pithy observation [different thread]:


The fact is that NOBODY is good enough to finish second ....

But as some mediocre team[s] will finish second, might as well play this interesting game, enthusiastically even. Especially as one's fellow and sister posters are willing to indulge one's loopy speculations. I hope.

What follows, so help me, is not simply a response to BC's impressive drubbing of South Carolina this afternoon, a 15-really-25-point win at USC. Rather, it began percolating this morning as I was multitasking: reading the DBR boards, glancing at KenPom, watching a football match [West Brom v. Man U - the word "match" is the key there], and fending off irritatingly persistent complaints, almost an attack, by a cat that was unhappy with my inattentiveness to his culinary preferences, which the dog, not to mention the chickens, found highly amusing.

Anyhow, it came to me, an epiphany of sorts. I discovered on the poll results page that the poll is open until Jan. 13. It seems a bit dodgy to wait almost 2 weeks to vote, but as my vote is going to be quirky at best, more likely truly loopy, I need all the edge I can get.

So, on Jan. 12, I will [if I remember to] revisit this thread to vote for either BC or NCSt, whichever team wins their game of Jan. 11. My seriously deranged prediction is that one of these 2 sleepers [I]might as well get 2d.

I'm a fan of Steve Donahue's coaching. His guys - note: 4 seniors and a junior in their top 6 - are playing with some spirit, having been released from Al Skinner's effective but unexciting system. They sure do like to shoot those 3s. They probably don't rebound nearly well enough to get 2d, but then NOBODY's perfect. Trapani, Jackson, Raji, and Paris all seem improved. And..... they already have a road win at Md. That's gold. As DukieInBrasil summarizes,


The fact that they beat MD already and have beaten TxAM and some other teams from big-time hoops conferences suggests to me that BC has a real shot at making a good run in the ACC schedule, that they’ve managed to hide some weaknesses and accentuate their strengths, which is exactly what a good coach is supposed to do. Donahue has some talent and some experience to work with and I think he’ll have this BC team playing really well by the time the ACC tourney starts.


Now, NCSt? A seriously deranged idea. Certainly KenPom thinks so, and generally I believe in KenPom, but I don't know whether KenPom has incorporated Tracy Smith's return into his numbers. I really like Tracy Smith [at least as a basketball player, possibly beyond that, no telling]. State probably hasn't enough 3-bombers, but they got some good rebounders, maybe 4 of them. Gonzalez and Harrow seem pretty solid at PG. And they got Tracy Smith, who should dominate at times.

Sid? No comment, on the grounds.....

But listen up to Kedsy [whom no one would dare describe as seriously deranged]:


Other than Duke, NC State is the most well-rounded and talented team in the ACC. They have two very solid, if unspectacular, point guards in Javi Gonzalez and Ryan Harrow. They're tough inside with Smith and a vastly improved Richard Howell (almost 14 rebounds per 40 minutes; and 15th in the ACC in ORtg). They have immense athletic upside in CJ Leslie and Lorenzo Brown. They have a big-time sharpshooter in Scott Wood (41%+ from three-land, on almost 7 attempts per game). And they have serviceable depth in CJ Williams and DeShawn Painter. They match up favorably with every team in the league (other than Duke), from a size standpoint as well as athletic and basketball talent.

The January 11 game against BC will probably tell us whether my prediction of NC State as the 2nd best ACC team has a realistic chance of coming to fruition.

Truer words, Kedsy, truer words....


One caveat, call it a pre-mulligan: I'm gonna choose another team in the event that the winner of the BC-NCSt game also lost on the previous Saturday [1/8], BC at home to GaTech [egads!], NCSt at home to Wake [egads!!]. Cut me some slack here. If either of my sleepers screws up this badly before their colossal tussle on Jan. 11, forget 'em.

But if, as expected, NCSt is undefeated in ACC play [ha!] after the Wake game, and BC is not only undefeated after the GaTech game but has a road win to boot, why then, it just seems logical, in a seriously deranged way, to say that the winner of BC and NCSt on Jan. 11 will place 2d.

[Bob Green]

This Ken Tysiac article at the News & Observer fits into this thread nicely:

http://www.newsobserver.com/2011/01/02/894284/duke-at-head-of-the-class.html

His list of contenders echos this boards thoughts.

[4decadedukie]

First and most important, this is an excellent thread, Jason I appreciate your initiating it, and I have enjoyed the analyses, the perceptiveness and the thoughtfulness of the posts.

I held my nose and voted for UNC. I cannot claim I analyzed the options with the depth of other participants, nor do I have the detailed knowledge of many of you. My rationale, however, is simple:
a) Talent. I do not see any other ACC team -- our Devils obviously excluded -- that can match UNC's aggregate fundamental talent level.
b) Coaching. Notwithstanding "sleepy Roy's" unfathomable lackadaisicalness and his continuing inability to galvanize his players into a hungry, integrated, selfless TEAM, I cannot believe Carolina pride will permit this season to be an essential duplicate of 2009-2010’s NIT-quality, notwithstanding marginal results and halfhearted performances during the last two months.
c) Tradition and Humiliation. This year's UNC team has the capability to beat any other ACC club -- not consistently and probably not on the road, but let's not underestimate their potential. Sooner or later, I expect LEADERSHIP to appear (of course, I expected this last season, as well), if not from Williams and his staff, than from individual players and from the “Carolina nation.” This leadership will necessarily challenge the team to play in the multi-decade Tarheel tradition, to represent the program and the university with honor, and to be tenacious, team-oriented and selfless victors. Frankly, I am astonished this has not already occurred . . . early LAST season.

[Kedsy]

a) Talent. I do not see any other ACC team -- our Devils obviously excluded -- that can match UNC's aggregate fundamental talent level.

I don't know why so many people think that UNC's talent is unmatched among non-Duke ACC teams. As the NC State advocate in this thread, I think UNC's talent doesn't even match up very well with State's.

Line 'em up:

Tyler Zeller vs. Tracy Smith
John Henson vs. Richard Howell
Harrison Barnes vs. CJ Leslie
Dexter Strickland vs. Lorenzo Brown
Larry Drew II vs. Javi Gonzalez
Kendall Marshall vs. Ryan Harrow
Reggie Bullock vs. Scott Wood
Justin Knox vs. DeShawn Painter
Leslie McDonald vs. CJ Williams

The only matchup above that jumps out for UNC is Henson vs. Howell, but even that isn't as much as you'd think:

Henson's stats per 40 minutes: 17.44 pts, 15.66 rebs, 0.89 assts, 4.45 blks, 0.89 stls
Howell's stats per 40 minutes: 18.96 pts, 14.72 rebs, 2.68 assts, 1.11 blks, 2.23 stls

So, really, Henson only stands out for his blocks and is overall probably a little worse than Howell in the other statistical categories.

But if you get beyond Henson, while several of the matchups are close there are no other clear winners on the UNC side, and I'd argue that (at least this year and assuming all are healthy) I'd probably take's State's side in 6 of the 9 matchups.

If I felt like going further, you can also make an argument that several other teams have as much or more talent at the top as UNC and just don't have as much depth (e.g., what three guys on UNC would you take over Miami's Scott/Grant/Johnson?). So where's UNC's matchless "aggregate fundamental talent level"? I'd argue it's a media creation. I'm not saying UNC isn't talented, but from a talent standpoint they certainly aren't head and shoulders over the other contenders for 2nd place in the conference.

Respect them, certainly, but don't pump UNC up too much. If they finish 2nd it will be because they stepped up their intensity and played above their talent level, not because their talent was so difficult for the other teams to match.

In my opinion, of course.

[JasonEvans]

This Ken Tysiac article at the News & Observer fits into this thread nicely:

http://www.newsobserver.com/2011/01/02/894284/duke-at-head-of-the-class.html

His list of contenders echos this boards thoughts.

I love this line from the article--


You could also argue that Duke has the most favorable schedule in the ACC - because it's the only team that doesn't have to face Duke.

--Jason "my son said almost the exact same thing to me yesterday when talking about Duke's SOS" Evans

[arnie]

Hopefully, the 2nd best team is Miami

[Bob Green]

Yuck! Florida State lost to Auburn 65-60. The Seminoles shot 19.2% on 3-pointers (5/26). Auburn (7-7) has lost to UNC-Asheville, Campbell, Rutgers and Presbyterian. It is embarrassing that I've been touting the Seminoles as the 2nd best team in the ACC. I know the ACC is down this year but the league's out of conference performance is starting to border on ridiculous.

[devildeac]

Yuck! Florida State lost to Auburn 65-60. The Seminoles shot 19.2% on 3-pointers (5/26). Auburn (7-7) has lost to UNC-Asheville, Campbell, Rutgers and Presbyterian. It is embarrassing that I've been touting the Seminoles as the 2nd best team in the ACC. I know the ACC is down this year but the league's out of conference performance is starting to border on ridiculous.

I wonder if I can retract my review now...
:o

[JasonEvans]

Yuck! Florida State lost to Auburn 65-60. The Seminoles shot 19.2% on 3-pointers (5/26). Auburn (7-7) has lost to UNC-Asheville, Campbell, Rutgers and Presbyterian. It is embarrassing that I've been touting the Seminoles as the 2nd best team in the ACC. I know the ACC is down this year but the league's out of conference performance is starting to border on ridiculous.

Auburn was widely touted as the team that was giving Wake Forest a run as the worst BCS team in the country. They were rated #228 in the Pomeroy rankings coming into tonight. The game was at Auburn, but FSU was still a 93% pick to win it.

This is just a shameful loss for a team that seemed poised to contend for upper tier in the ACC and certainly hoping to get an NCAA tourney bid. This will be a very bad loss on the FSU resume come March.

-Jason "Sigh... the league just sucks!" Evans

[devildeac]

Yuck! Florida State lost to Auburn 65-60. The Seminoles shot 19.2% on 3-pointers (5/26). Auburn (7-7) has lost to UNC-Asheville, Campbell, Rutgers and Presbyterian. It is embarrassing that I've been touting the Seminoles as the 2nd best team in the ACC. I know the ACC is down this year but the league's out of conference performance is starting to border on ridiculous.

And, of course, you know which f$u team will show up when we visit Tallahassee this year. Yep, the one that beat Hawaii in Hawaii and Baylor, ranked 15th in the nation at the time.

[DukieInBrasil]

well, that's what happens when you base everything on your D and then your D either gets figured out or just doesn't really show up. F$U's offensive game pretty much sucks, despite having 2 maybe 3 guys that are decent scorers.
I'm feeling more bullish on my prediction of the BC Eagles finishing 2nd, they've got several really good wins already and only 1 bad loss along with 2 acceptable non-home losses to decent/good teams.
I'm not feeling any of the respect for UNC this year as some others are. I think MD is the only other team that is really going to make a strong bid for the #2 spot in the ACC since they've got a star player (Jordan Williams) and several solid veterans and role players. Plus they've got a good coach. Ya know what? BC's got all that too, and they already beat MD on the road, so that's a major hurdle out of the way already.

[Bob Green]

Virginia and Maryland both won their games tonight. Virginia defeated Howard 84-63 (http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=310040258) while Maryland thumped Colgate 95-40 (http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=310040120).

The ACC has four more out-of-conference games tomorrow before the ACC regular season kicks into high gear this weekend:

UAB @ Duke
Harvard @ Boston College
High Point @ Wake Forest
NC State @ Elon

[Newton_14]

Virginia and Maryland both won their games tonight. Virginia defeated Howard 84-63 (http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=310040258) while Maryland thumped Colgate 95-40 (http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=310040120).

The ACC has four more out-of-conference games tomorrow before the ACC regular season kicks into high gear this weekend:

UAB @ Duke
Harvard @ Boston College
High Point @ Wake Forest
NC State @ Elon

That State/Elon game is going to be interesting. State better be on their game or expect a serious challenge. I came away from our game very impressed with Elon. They are very well coached, and have good guard play. They also shoot the 3 Ball well as a team. If Tracy Smith were still out, I would be very tempted to pick Elon for the upset. With Smith playing though, it will be much tougher for Elon. They will need to shoot well from 3, and shut down State's perimeter.

This could really be an interesting game, especially at Elon. (Strange that Lowe would agree to playing at their place)

[Kedsy]

That State/Elon game is going to be interesting. State better be on their game or expect a serious challenge. I came away from our game very impressed with Elon. They are very well coached, and have good guard play. They also shoot the 3 Ball well as a team. If Tracy Smith were still out, I would be very tempted to pick Elon for the upset. With Smith playing though, it will be much tougher for Elon. They will need to shoot well from 3, and shut down State's perimeter.

This could really be an interesting game, especially at Elon. (Strange that Lowe would agree to playing at their place)

As the NC State representative (at least in this thread), I'll say State by 20.

[ndkjr70]

I like my crow with a side of mashed potatoes...

From my "insider view", I said Reggie Johnson isn't the straw that stirs Miami's drink. I said he was merely a byproduct of a tissue-paper schedule. I said that the entire team lived, breathed, and died, by Durand Scott.

Oopsie.

[loran16]

I like my crow with a side of mashed potatoes...

From my "insider view", I said Reggie Johnson isn't the straw that stirs Miami's drink. I said he was merely a byproduct of a tissue-paper schedule. I said that the entire team lived, breathed, and died, by Durand Scott.

Oopsie.

Heh, don't feel bad. Even in the tournament, most people didn't believe that Zoubek was a real factor at all himself.

Johnson has really improved from last year. Now if he could stop fouling as much early, Miami would be freaking deadly.

[CDu]

At the moment, I'd have to say that the second best team is UNC. I'd say that based both on talent and performance to date. UNC has the best win of the bunch (over Pomeroy #5 Kentucky), and aside from a mediocre loss to Minnesota, their losses are to teams in the top-12 of Pomeroy.

BC has two bad losses (URI and the really awful loss to Yale) that offset their two quality wins (Maryland and TAMU). Maryland has no bad losses but no quality wins, either. Their entire resume is based on close losses to good teams and beating up terrible teams. FSU has the win over Baylor but an awful loss at Auburn. Va Tech has no good wins and no really bad losses, but they took a bit hit with their injuries and they were marginal to begin with. Miami has a win over WVU but a loss to Rutgers. NC State is in the same boat as Maryland, but with one blowout loss. UVa has the worst loss in the ACC this year to Seattle, which more than offsets their win over Va Tech. Clemson, Ga Tech, and Wake are not currently in the picture.

That said, it's not that I think that UNC is terribly good (I'd say they're a borderline top-25 team). It's just that the rest of the ACC seems to want to find ways to hurt their cases.

[loran16]

At the moment, I'd have to say that the second best team is UNC. I'd say that based both on talent and performance to date. UNC has the best win of the bunch (over Pomeroy #5 Kentucky), and aside from a mediocre loss to Minnesota, their losses are to teams in the top-12 of Pomeroy.

BC has two bad losses (URI and the really awful loss to Yale) that offset their two quality wins (Maryland and TAMU). Maryland has no bad losses but no quality wins, either. Their entire resume is based on close losses to good teams and beating up terrible teams. FSU has the win over Baylor but an awful loss at Auburn. Va Tech has no good wins and no really bad losses, but they took a bit hit with their injuries and they were marginal to begin with. Miami has a win over WVU but a loss to Rutgers. NC State is in the same boat as Maryland, but with one blowout loss. UVa has the worst loss in the ACC this year to Seattle, which more than offsets their win over Va Tech. Clemson, Ga Tech, and Wake are not currently in the picture.

That said, it's not that I think that UNC is terribly good (I'd say they're a borderline top-25 team). It's just that the rest of the ACC seems to want to find ways to hurt their cases.

Lets be fair. Yale is a bad loss. It was at BC, and Yale is 5-7 and 207 in the Pomeroy Rankings.

Rhode Island is NOT a bad loss...The game was at Rhode Island, and they're ranked 106.....Pomeroy, which has BC as the 48th team in the nation, had BC only likely to win that game 62% of the time. So basically 1/3 of the time, a team as good as they had BC would lose that game. That's not a bad loss, though it is a missed opportunity.

If you want to consider RI a bad loss, you have to distinguish it from the Yale Loss, which was truly dreadful.

[CDu]

Lets be fair. Yale is a bad loss. It was at BC, and Yale is 5-7 and 207 in the Pomeroy Rankings.

Rhode Island is NOT a bad loss...The game was at Rhode Island, and they're ranked 106.....Pomeroy, which has BC as the 48th team in the nation, had BC only likely to win that game 62% of the time. So basically 1/3 of the time, a team as good as they had BC would lose that game. That's not a bad loss, though it is a missed opportunity.

I counted any loss to a team in the Pomeroy 100+ as a bad loss. It's not an awful loss, and it's understandable. But if we're trying to determine who the second best team in the conference is, that's a bad loss.


If you want to consider RI a bad loss, you have to distinguish it from the Yale Loss, which was truly dreadful.

I believe that I did distinguish between the Yale and URI loss by calling the Yale loss a "really awful loss." By the criteria of "any loss to a team outside the top-100 is a bad loss," they both qualify as bad losses. But I did make an effort to distinguish between the two losses.

[JasonEvans]

After starting out pretty close, the poll has tilted a lot to UNC. The Heels are at 45% followed by FSU at 25% and then Maryland at just under 14%.

-Jason "the Heels win over Kentucky is probably the non-Duke ACC's most impressive win so far" Evans

[PADukeMom]

I chose Maryland. No real reason other than they are the next ACC team we play.

Whoa...wait a second..."THEY" have 40 votes???? How many times did you allow kong to vote:p

[CDu]

After starting out pretty close, the poll has tilted a lot to UNC. The Heels are at 45% followed by FSU at 25% and then Maryland at just under 14%.

-Jason "the Heels win over Kentucky is probably the non-Duke ACC's most impressive win so far" Evans

Actually, that UNC win over UK is arguably better than any of our wins (at least according to Pomeroy). Currently, our best win is either a home win over MSU (22) or the "semi-road" stomping of KSU (34). Pomeroy has UK at #5. Combining location, margin of victory, and opponent quality, the UK and KSU wins may be pretty close. Pomeroy isn't as excited about our wins over MSU and KSU now that those teams have a combined 7 losses.

Pomeroy currently rates BC's win over Maryland as comparable, but I think that Maryland's standing may start to drop as they start playing more decent competition (though I guess it's debatable whether the ACC is decent competition this year).

[tbyers11]

That State/Elon game is going to be interesting. State better be on their game or expect a serious challenge. I came away from our game very impressed with Elon. They are very well coached, and have good guard play. They also shoot the 3 Ball well as a team. If Tracy Smith were still out, I would be very tempted to pick Elon for the upset. With Smith playing though, it will be much tougher for Elon. They will need to shoot well from 3, and shut down State's perimeter.

This could really be an interesting game, especially at Elon. (Strange that Lowe would agree to playing at their place)

According to Pomeroy (http://kenpom.com/fanmatch.php?d=2011-01-05), (Game #31) the game is being played at the Greensboro Coliseum. I will be interested in the outcome of this game as well. Elon played Duke well and has since won two road games at Navy and at Columbia. Not very good teams but two road OOC wins for Elon is still fairly impressive. I don't expect Elon to pull off the upset but it will be interesting to see how close they keep the margin.

[loran16]

According to Pomeroy (http://kenpom.com/fanmatch.php?d=2011-01-05), (Game #31) the game is being played at the Greensboro Coliseum. I will be interested in the outcome of this game as well. Elon played Duke well and has since won two road games at Navy and at Columbia. Not very good teams but two road OOC wins for Elon is still fairly impressive. I don't expect Elon to pull off the upset but it will be interesting to see how close they keep the margin.

I'm not quite sure why there's so much interest aside from the local angle....Elon is ranked #232 in the Pomeroy Rankings and State is an 89% favorite. Hardly a tough game, really.

[NSDukeFan]

After starting out pretty close, the poll has tilted a lot to UNC. The Heels are at 45% followed by FSU at 25% and then Maryland at just under 14%.

-Jason "the Heels win over Kentucky is probably the non-Duke ACC's most impressive win so far" Evans

I think it would tilt even further away from FSU, if those who picked them before the Auburn fiasco could have their votes back. Does that game make Wake the clubhouse leader for worst BCS team?

P.S. I guess I should add a very little bit of research and add that Auburn (222) still leads Wake (183) in terms of worst BCS team according to Ken Pom. Maybe Wake will win an ACC game (or two?) this year.

[tbyers11]

I'm not quite sure why there's so much interest aside from the local angle....Elon is ranked #232 in the Pomeroy Rankings and State is an 89% favorite. Hardly a tough game, really.

Interesting for me for just the reason that you pointed out above. NC State played Delaware State (currently 260 in Pom) at home on Dec 22nd and were a 96% (16 point) favorite by Pomeroy. NC State barely won that game 72-70. NC State has drastically underperformed against some cupcakes (Del St above and trailing Youngstown St by 10 at half) who in my mind are a 1/2 notch below Elon in "cupcakeness".

Basically, I want to see if NC State is getting better with Tracy Smith back and how "easily" they handle Elon in a neutral court setting. If Elon manages to keep it close, say around 10 pts, for most of the game, I might continue to have doubts about whether NC State is a viable contender for a top 4 spot in the ACC.

[Slackerb]

Elon played State close for most of the game before State started playing better defensively and then surged ahead.

For a very young team like State, I think too much is being made about how close the cupcake games have been, etc. This team so far plays to the competition...expected to out-athlete these cupcakes until it's a serious threat and then turning on the burners.

Hopefully they'll correct that once they head into ACC play and wont take any of those teams lightly.

A lot of people in this thread, especially voting, are counting out NC State. They are playing much better with Tracy Smith in, as expected, and have some very talented pieces. They have perhaps the ACC freshman of the year with Kyrie out, an All-ACC big man, and even more importantly, at least so far, stable guard play.

Don't sleep on State.


Interesting for me for just the reason that you pointed out above. NC State played Delaware State (currently 260 in Pom) at home on Dec 22nd and were a 96% (16 point) favorite by Pomeroy. NC State barely won that game 72-70. NC State has drastically underperformed against some cupcakes (Del St above and trailing Youngstown St by 10 at half) who in my mind are a 1/2 notch below Elon in "cupcakeness".

Basically, I want to see if NC State is getting better with Tracy Smith back and how "easily" they handle Elon in a neutral court setting. If Elon manages to keep it close, say around 10 pts, for most of the game, I might continue to have doubts about whether NC State is a viable contender for a top 4 spot in the ACC.

[Duvall]

A lot of people in this thread, especially voting, are counting out NC State. They are playing much better with Tracy Smith in, as expected, and have some very talented pieces.

How could we tell? Since Smith's return State has faced San Diego (3-11) and Elon (6-8). We won't be able to tell State is playing better until they play someone that isn't terrible.


They have perhaps the ACC freshman of the year with Kyrie out, an All-ACC big man, and even more importantly, at least so far, stable guard play.

Don't sleep on State.

It doesn't make sense to sleep on anyone. But when looking for the second best team in the conference, it also doesn't make sense to pick the team that's looking for its second win of the year against a top-150 opponent.

[ACCBBallFan]

I voted on behalf of Ken Pomeroy who currently sees ACC finish as:

14-2 Duke

11-5 UNC

10-6 MD

9-7 VA Tech
9-7 FSU who play each other this weekend

8-8 BC
8-8 Clemson

7-9 Miami

6-10 NC St who may fare better with Tracy Smith back
6-10 GA Tech

5-11 UVA may be worse if Mike Scott redshirts due to ankle injury

2-14 Wake

The way the Pomeroy system works, those two Duke losses are not any particular game, favord in all, but the sum of a bunch of partial percentages chances of losing, 32% @ MD, 28% at UNC for example sum to 60% and account for one of the virtual losses along with some other partials.

Sun Jan 9 15 Maryland W, 82-69 78 89% Home
Wed Jan 12 43 Florida St. W, 77-66 75 84% Away
Sat Jan 15 102 Virginia W, 82-57 65 99% Home
Wed Jan 19 77 North Carolina St. W, 84-68 73 93% Away
Sat Jan 22 174 Wake Forest W, 95-68 77 98% Away
Thu Jan 27 59 Boston College W, 90-68 69 96% Home
Sun Jan 30 40 St. John's W, 78-68 70 83% Away
Wed Feb 2 15 Maryland W, 78-73 78 68% Away
Sat Feb 5 77 North Carolina St. W, 89-64 73 98% Home
Wed Feb 9 18 North Carolina W, 87-72 79 90% Home
Sun Feb 13 56 Miami FL W, 82-69 72 88% Away
Wed Feb 16 102 Virginia W, 77-60 65 95% Away
Sun Feb 20 88 Georgia Tech W, 88-62 75 98% Home
Wed Feb 23 29 Temple W, 78-62 71 93% Home
Sat Feb 26 33 Virginia Tech W, 75-66 71 79% Away
Wed Mar 2 52 Clemson W, 80-61 71 96% Home
Sat Mar 5 18 North Carolina W, 82-76 79 72% Away
Projected record: 29-2 14-2

[ACCBBallFan]

On Pomeroy scoring the second place battle is very close between UNC and MD. Though it rounds to a full 1 loss difference, the net difference is only 0.21.

Duke's loss percentages sum to 1.74.

UNC''s sum to 5.39

MD's future losses sum to 4.6 plus their first game loss to fading BC makes it 5.6.

VA Tech sums to 5.79 plus its first game loss to UVA makes it 6.79.

FSU's percentage chances of losses sum to 6.8

[ice-9]

I voted on behalf of Ken Pomeroy who currently sees ACC finish as:

14-2 Duke

11-5 UNC

10-6 MD



Yet he sees Maryland as the second highest rated ACC team! The closest game he predicts we will have in fact is a 5-point win over MD at MD with a 32% chance of losing. That's 1 in 3.

[Kedsy]

It doesn't make sense to sleep on anyone. But when looking for the second best team in the conference, it also doesn't make sense to pick the team that's looking for its second win of the year against a top-150 opponent.

State is significantly better than they're performance has showed so far, due to missing Tracy Smith. I detailed this in my preview in this thread, but imagine last year's Maryland team without Greivis Vasquez. I think Smith is that important to State, which is why I believe dwelling on what they've done (or not done) so far this year is a mistake.

For the same reason, I think the current rating Pomeroy assigns to State is useless (as are any projected win/loss record based on that rating).

[ACCBBallFan]

Though strength of schedule varies , especially for teams like Clemson known for playing weak schedules, the cumulative margin of victory results to date again makes the race for second place to be between MD and UNC but does not account for ACC unbalanced schedule:

351 Duke

260 MD

181 Clemson
179 UNC

147 VA Tech
138 FSU

121 Miami

98 BC
92 NC St

58 GA Tech
39 UVA

(-5) Wake

[Slackerb]

How could we tell? Since Smith's return State has faced San Diego (3-11) and Elon (6-8). We won't be able to tell State is playing better until they play someone that isn't terrible.

Well, if you're reading the stat sheets, it would be hard to tell. It just looks like State beat more patsies. However, I've watched both games, and I can tell you that State looks much more organized. Their offense is running more fluidly and efficiently for sure, and Smith helps anchor down a frontcourt on defense that was being guarded by 3 sophomores previously.

They just flat out look like a much better team.

In other years, I'd agree with you that play against these cupcakes tells you very little, but this year, in such a down ACC, playing patsies shouldn't be taken for granted. Other teams have lost games to these "terrible" teams....State hasn't.



It doesn't make sense to sleep on anyone. But when looking for the second best team in the conference, it also doesn't make sense to pick the team that's looking for its second win of the year against a top-150 opponent.

How many other teams, save Duke, HAS beaten multiple top-150 opponents and not had any bad losses? State's losses are all to top-50 teams...and they have 1 decent win.

Also, basing State's future performance on a past without Tracy Smith is a bit daft.

[Bob Green]

Carolina won their ACC opener, 62-56, over a depleted Virginia squad. With Mike Scott out and Will Sherrill playing hurt, the Cavaliers just didn't have enough firepower to put away the Tar Heels.

N.C. State is up 17 points on Wake Forest with 8 minutes left in the game. This is no real surprise as the Demon Deacons are absolutely horrible. Tracy Smith has 19 points and 9 rebounds. State could be tough with Smith healthy but I'll reserve judgment until they play a talented team.

Meanwhile, at halftime, Virginia Tech is taking it to Florida State 29-19. This was a back and forth game with FSU dominating the glass before Virginia Tech switched to a 2-3 zone, which has completely exposed FSU's offensive incompetence. A whole half of basketball is left to be played so if FSU desires to win they had better figure out how to score. Chris Singleton has 11 of FSU's 19 points but he has disappeared since Virginia Tech switched to the zone.

Florida State may look completely different next week when the Blue Devils travel to Tallahassee; however, watching this VT game, I cannot fathom the Seminoles scoring enough points to challenge Duke. We should easily defeat the Seminoles. Time will tell.

[CDu]

BC is struggling with Ga Tech right now at home. It's 33-32 late in the first half. There's a long way to go, but BC really needs to win this one. Losing at home to Ga Tech would definitely hurt their cause, and further muddy the non-Duke ACC picture.

[Bob Green]

Virginia Tech defeated Florida State 71-59 so both the Hokies and the Seminoles are 1-1 in the conference. Virginia Tech travels to Chapel Hill on Thursday while Florida State hosts Duke on Wednesday.

[JasonEvans]

BC is struggling with Ga Tech right now at home. It's 33-32 late in the first half. There's a long way to go, but BC really needs to win this one. Losing at home to Ga Tech would definitely hurt their cause, and further muddy the non-Duke ACC picture.

BC held on for the win. They are now 2-0 in the league. Clemson also beat Miami in a home game. Winning on the road is gonna be tough for all these mid-level teams. I guess that makes Carolina's victory at UVA pretty valuable.

-Jason "I think the ACC will get a second ranked team this week as Carolina could re-enter the rankings" Evans

[davekay1971]

BC held on for the win. They are now 2-0 in the league. Clemson also beat Miami in a home game. Winning on the road is gonna be tough for all these mid-level teams. I guess that makes Carolina's victory at UVA pretty valuable.

-Jason "I think the ACC will get a second ranked team this week as Carolina could re-enter the rankings" Evans

I think you're right about Carolina re-entering the rankings. In fact, Carolina's favorable early ACC schedule makes it a near certainty that they'll come into Cameron ranked. It will then be our job to send them out of Cameron thinking 82-50 wasn't that bad after all.

How good Carolina is, and whether or not they end up as the 2 seed in the ACCT, will be determined from the Duke game onward. Carolina hasn't done anything yet this year to make anyone thing they're a threat to do more than maybe get to the 2nd weekend of the NCAAT. However, they have managed to win close games when last season they tended to lose them.

[JasonEvans]

So, BC stands 2-0 and Maryland stands 0-2 and yet I feel a heck of a lot better about Maryland as the second best team in the conference than I do about BC.

Interesting to note that since we discounted VaTech they have put up a couple impressive results and have risen to #26 in the Pomeroy rankings and he projects them to go 10-6 in the league. They have a huge, huge game at UNC this week. Win there and VaTech really leaps to the front of the class in the battle for second.

-Jason "the conference may be down, but this is still a fun league to watch" Evans

[superdave]

-Jason "the conference may be down, but this is still a fun league to watch" Evans

As a Duke fan, watching the ACC can be confusing - we see every team's best shot at least 1 of the 2 times we see them. Miami is 0-2 in conference but they really pushed us. How can they not play that hard every night?

As we get into February and Duke's been through the league once, I always take a look at the standings and wonder how some of these teams arent .500 or better. It's just odd to see BC at 2-0 but have two Ivy League losses. I need to watch more non-Duke ACC games because it will help me make better sense of it all!

[DukieInBrasil]

So, BC stands 2-0 and Maryland stands 0-2 and yet I feel a heck of a lot better about Maryland as the second best team in the conference than I do about BC.

Interesting to note that since we discounted VaTech they have put up a couple impressive results and have risen to #26 in the Pomeroy rankings and he projects them to go 10-6 in the league. They have a huge, huge game at UNC this week. Win there and VaTech really leaps to the front of the class in the battle for second.

-Jason "the conference may be down, but this is still a fun league to watch" Evans
Since BC beat MD @ MD it seems that you might want to give BC more props. So, let's take it to the next level: BC hung on to win vs. a terrible team at home whereas MD lost a tight game on the road to the presumed best team in the league. I'm not sure what indicates to you that MD is still clearly the better team, especially considering they are already -2 in the race.

[loran16]

Since BC beat MD @ MD it seems that you might want to give BC more props. So, let's take it to the next level: BC hung on to win vs. a terrible team at home whereas MD lost a tight game on the road to the presumed best team in the league. I'm not sure what indicates to you that MD is still clearly the better team, especially considering they are already -2 in the race.

The answer is HOW the two are playing. Maryland has been playing really good D, but not great O, particularly in ACC play so far. BC is relying entirely on outscoring opponents...they have no D.

The BC method is probably more likely to result in swingy outcomes...BC will lose one game when the O fails miserably, but win another when their scoring simply goes on for insane levels. However, in consistency, Defense IS more useful to have than Offense, or so I'm told.

Thus MD, despite two losses, seems more likely to be better than BC as a team. Doesn't mean they'll have a better record at the end, but they seem more likely to be the better team.

[Slackerb]

Though Wake is terrible, State looked on great Saturday.

CJ Leslie has really started to adjust to the college game, and he dominated Wake. Although the competition has been poor, he's averaging 13.8 ppg and 8.6 rpg in the past five games. But what's really impressive is that he's taking smarter shots (rather than playing and-one ball) and playing team defense more. His FG% the past 5 games is 53.1% and he has 15 offensive rebounds.

Ryan Harrow has eclipsed Javi Gonzalez as the best PG on the team. He's developed his game and is playing with less Globetrotters passes and pared his game down to ACC level consistency. Harrow has a 2.17 assist/TO ratio and is averaging almost 11 PPG, even though he's only averaging 22 minutes/game. He's shooting 42% from the floor and is the ACC leader in free throw percentage. You want the ball in this kid's hands.

As I've said before, don't sleep on State just because their early season mediocrity without Smith.

[dball]

As a Duke fan, watching the ACC can be confusing - we see every team's best shot at least 1 of the 2 times we see them. Miami is 0-2 in conference but they really pushed us. How can they not play that hard every night?


I think the Duke game gets players excited so that individuals tend to step up their games even though their team may not be that great. Sometimes, a well coached team (like MD) will parlay that individual enthusiasm and magnify their team effort into a close game or a win. Other times, a poorly coached squad (GT last year) might still pull off the win as their players are pumped (TV, Duke, statement).

Does make me appreciate the effort that Duke players give game in, game out.

[Bob Green]

Here is an excellent article by Jim Sumner on Maryland:

http://www.collegechalktalk.com/conferencenotebooks/acc/index

At 0-2 the Terps are starting off in a hole but I wouldn't write them off. As this article points out, they have some things going for them starting with Jordan Williams.

[Duvall]

N.C. State faces its first top-200 opponent in nearly a month, and loses to Boston College, 75-66.

[Kedsy]

Well, BC beat State, by 9 at BC. This moves BC to 3-0 and gives them a leg up on the coveted 2nd place finish in the ACC.

The game was tied with 4 minutes to play (although I admit I didn't watch it, so I don't know who outplayed whom), and I'm still thinking State is the 2nd best team. But with State's unfavorable unbalanced schedule, they now have an uphill battle to actually finish 2nd.

[ncexnyc]

BC is a veteran team and it showed tonight. The BC backcourt torched State for nearly 60 points and in crunch time Reggie Jackson came through for his team. State has a ton of talent, but their inexperience did them in. As others have said, they play some brillant ball and then turn right around and have you scratching your head wondering what the heck was that.

[gumbomoop]

Back in post #37 in this thread, I "promised" to vote for the winner of tonight's [technically, yesterday's] BC-NCSt game. So, with some trepidation, I just voted for BC.

To state the obvious, the only team likely to get to at least 12 wins is Duke. Were Duke to win the reg season at "only" 12-4, I fear that we'll collectively be in agony, focusing on the 4 losses rather than being the top team. Whatever, as far as I can tell, no one has yet suggested that "Other" in this poll includes Duke.

So then I ask, can any team get to 11-5? I guess I'd guess the 2 most likely are UNC and VaT, the former based on raw talent and hints of much better D this season, the latter based on what still appears to be the obviously easiest unbalanced schedule. If these are the 2 who might get to 11-5, I'll guess at least one of them will get to 10-6, good enough for a tie for 2d.

With BC, who, as I look at their remaining 13 games, seems a fair prospect to get to 10 wins if they can hold service at home [they don't play Duke at home] and beat any of the following on the road: Miami, UVa, Clemson, FSU. Really, they should get to 10-6. Shouldn't they?

[Slackerb]

The BC/State game was much closer than the final score shows. The game was back and forth all game, with neither team having an advantage. It was great basketball, right up until the last 3 minutes.

Now, this is my opinion, but the difference was that Harrow was taken out and Javi Gonzalez placed into the lineup to guard Reggie Jackson.

Gonzalez failed to start the offense out of the timeout, and had to heave a half-court shot with the shot-clock expiring. Then he let Jackson around him that led to a kick-out 3 by Raji. Then he had a turnover on the other end and then was slow to switch on a screen that allowed Paris a 3.

And that's how in 49 seconds State went from tied to down 6 with 2:15 to go.

IMO, it wasn't State's youth that did them in. They just lost it at the end....and it was mostly the senior PG's fault.

19 minutes, 0-4 shooting, 2 assists, 1 rebound, 0 points. Javi Gonzalez, senior starting PG.

[Kedsy]

With BC, who, as I look at their remaining 13 games, seems a fair prospect to get to 10 wins if they can hold service at home [they don't play Duke at home] and beat any of the following on the road: Miami, UVa, Clemson, FSU. Really, they should get to 10-6. Shouldn't they?

Of those four games, the only one I'd be comfortable picking BC would be Virginia. I also think BC is a ripe candidate to lose at least one at home. Despite their 3-0 start, I think BC will probably end up 9-7, or possibly 8-8 if they go into a mini-slump.

I also think the most likely finish for State, Maryland, and Va Tech are all 9-7 at this point. Which I suppose leaves us with UNC as the best candidate to get to 10 wins; but I'm not willing to go there until I see them beat a couple of the top, or even middle tier ACC teams.

[DukieInBrasil]

Well, BC beat State, by 9 at BC. This moves BC to 3-0 and gives them a leg up on the coveted 2nd place finish in the ACC.

It gives them a leg up on us too right now.
My prediction for a 2nd place finish by BC just got a lot more solid.
Reggie Jackson was awesome while Raji and Trapani provided crucial balance in scoring and played solid ball. They've got what it takes to grab 2nd place in the ACC. (Granted: that's not saying a lot)

[gumbomoop]

Of those four games, the only one I'd be comfortable picking BC would be Virginia. I also think BC is a ripe candidate to lose at least one at home. Despite their 3-0 start, I think BC will probably end up 9-7, or possibly 8-8 if they go into a mini-slump.

I also think the most likely finish for State, Maryland, and Va Tech are all 9-7 at this point. Which I suppose leaves us with UNC as the best candidate to get to 10 wins; but I'm not willing to go there until I see them beat a couple of the top, or even middle tier ACC teams.

I agree that BC is still a "medium-shot" for even a tie for 2d; and had NCS won last evening, I'd have gone with them for 2d, but.....

KenPom moved BC from 8-8 before last night's game to 9-7 now, but he certainly thinks they're ripe for a close home loss (or 2), and has them in a dismal slump starting soon.

Any of 4 or 5 teams might break out and get 11 wins, but the only 2 who seem to me logical candidates to do so are Duke, obviously, and UNC, more debatably. So, until they hit that slump, I'll stick with BC to tie UNC or somebody for 2d.

[-bdbd]

So, BC stands 2-0 and Maryland stands 0-2 and yet I feel a heck of a lot better about Maryland as the second best team in the conference than I do about BC.

Interesting to note that since we discounted VaTech they have put up a couple impressive results and have risen to #26 in the Pomeroy rankings and he projects them to go 10-6 in the league. They have a huge, huge game at UNC this week. Win there and VaTech really leaps to the front of the class in the battle for second.

-Jason "the conference may be down, but this is still a fun league to watch" Evans

I was really surprised that VPI wasn't one of the options in the poll at the top of this string. Given that they were the ACC writers' preseason #2, even with a sloppy start I'd think they're more likey to finish 2nd than a couple of the teams listed there for voting...

Not looking forward to a late-season Duke visit to Blacksburg, when they may be fighting for a NCAA bid...

[gw67]

After just getting in to the ACC schedule, it appears to me that BC, UNC, Florida State, Maryland, Clemson, Virginia Tech and possibly N.C, State are still possibilities to finish in 2nd behind the Devils. Wake, GT, Virginia and Miami are poised to finish at the bottom, IMO. This should begin to settle out by the first week in February.

I watched Wake play Maryland last night. Although the Deacs are woeful, they have a couple of freshmen who impressed me. The first, McKie is a short power forward who competes on the boards and gets points close to the basket. The second is their center, Desrosiers. He is only averaging 17 minutes per game, but he played Williams even and has significant upside, particularly as a rebounder and shot blocker at 6-11 with long arms. Their leading scorer, Terrell, is also a freshman but he was not impressive in last night’s game. Wake seems to have plenty of shooters/scorers but they need a solid point guard and need improved defensive play. The Terps were again out of sync offensively but it didn’t matter as they made Wake turn the ball over and scored a bunch of points on turnovers.

The thread on the Devils game against the Noles is too long for me to read. My only comment is that the team that plays Duke after a Devils loss is generally humbled. I feel sorry for Virginia this coming weekend.

The leading candidate for ACC POY, IMO, is Jackson of BC. I suspect this will change by the end of the year but his ACC games-only stats are impressive: 23.3 ppg, 73.3% FG, 4.7 apg, 95% FT, 64% 3-pt, and 1.7 bpg.

According to Pomeroy, Maryland is number 1 in team defensive efficiency. It will be interesting to see whether they will continue to be competitive against top teams when they play Villanova this weekend. At some point in time the coulda, woulda, shoulda excuses for not winning games against good opposition need to be dropped and they need to win one.

gw67

[DukieInBrasil]

The leading candidate for ACC POY, IMO, is Jackson of BC. I suspect this will change by the end of the year but his ACC games-only stats are impressive: 23.3 ppg, 73.3% FG, 4.7 apg, 95% FT, 64% 3-pt, and 1.7 bpg.

According to Pomeroy, Maryland is number 1 in team defensive efficiency. It will be interesting to see whether they will continue to be competitive against top teams when they play Villanova this weekend. At some point in time the coulda, woulda, shoulda excuses for not winning games against good opposition need to be dropped and they need to win one.

gw67

I agree with your take on RJ.
I am also pulling for Md to beat Nova.

[Bob Green]

Carolina has to be given serious consideration as the 2nd best team in the ACC seeing as they are currently in 1st Place and should have no problem defeating Georgia Tech on the road today. The operative word in that sentence is should as nothing is guaranteed on the road in conference.

[gumbomoop]

Carolina has to be given serious consideration as the 2nd best team in the ACC seeing as they are currently in 1st Place and should have no problem defeating Georgia Tech on the road today. The operative word in that sentence is should as nothing is guaranteed on the road in conference.

It strikes me that Carolina has clearly been given serious consideration, having easily placed first in the 2-poll, and this before their win over VT. I assume they won "2d prize in an ugly contest" [random Monopoly reference] because a substantial number of posters saw some improvement in UNC's easy wins over W&M, Rutgers, and St. Francis, plus [for later posters] a somewhat creditable [there's a joke there] road win at UVa.

Perhaps it's appropriate to revisit Olympic Fan's observation of a few weeks back [on a different thread] that "NOBODY is good enough to finish second." We've now had a chance to see all teams play at least a couple of ACC opponents. UNC, yes, should end today alone at the top. If they defeat GaTech decisively, their poll-proponents will feel justified in thinking, "Yeah, I was afraid the Heels would wake up." If they win ugly over GT, one could say, "Well, at least they've found a way to win 3 close ones, and 2 on the road, even if those 2 are hardly top-level opponents." If they lose, it's a very bad loss, and their stock plummets.

Speaking of which, has Duke's stock plummeted? The entire assumption behind the poll, much less Olympic Fan's assertion, is that Duke is way better than all other ACC teams. This thread began on 12/29, after Kyrie's injury, and so far as I can recall, no one - certainly not me - said, "Wait a minute, why are we all so overconfident that Duke is still the only conceivable #1 in the ACC?"

But now, there's at least a healthy [a word I use advisedly and with some irony] debate about whether the Devils have flaws so fundamental as to make them susceptible to any number of the "nobodies," especially on the road.

So, just to check:

1. Is Duke still the the only conceivable #1 in the ACC?
2. Is it or is it not accurate to say, "NOBODY is good enough to finish second?"

[DukieInBrasil]

So, just to check:

1. Is Duke still the the only conceivable #1 in the ACC?
2. Is it or is it not accurate to say, "NOBODY is good enough to finish second?"

1. Depends on which Duke team shows up: 1st half UVa-game Duke, might finish 3rd; 2nd half UVa-game Duke, could very well be 1st.
2. Not accurate. There are plenty of teams that are good enough to finish 2nd: FSU, BC, UNC, VT, Md. are all quality 2nd place caliber teams. I think Miami won't overcome their weaknesses, nor will Clemson or UVa. NCSU could be a contender for 2nd or 3rd, seeing as Tracy Smith and CJ Leslie give them a lot of frontcourt potential, but their youth makes it questionable that they can withstand the rigors of all 16 games in 2nd.

[richardjackson199]

Carolina has to be given serious consideration as the 2nd best team in the ACC seeing as they are currently in 1st Place and should have no problem defeating Georgia Tech on the road today. The operative word in that sentence is should as nothing is guaranteed on the road in conference.

Respectfully, I think this whole thread is a little entitled. UNC should be given serious consideration as the 1st best team in the ACC given that they are currently alone at the top. Duke has struggled mightily at home with bottom-feeders (Md & UVA) in a weak national conference, and I'm not going to just assume they will win that conference. I could certainly see this Duke team losing to UNC twice this regular season. UNC's inside game is playing better than ours right now. They also have some quality guards who can get hot. The best team in the ACC will be determined by the games played. But whichever team that is will earn it with wins and losses. I hope it's Duke, but they're going to have to earn it. The team and the fans need to be hungry and humble. A thread that assumes we're obviously the best team in the ACC is neither humble nor hungry.

[Kedsy]

Respectfully, I think this whole thread is a little entitled. UNC should be given serious consideration as the 1st best team in the ACC given that they are currently alone at the top.

Still think that after UNC got hammered by Ga Tech (by 20)? Saying Duke is the clear #1 team in the ACC may seem conceited, but it's still true. And I wouldn't say something like that if I thought it was even arguably close.

At the moment I'd say FSU has the upper hand for 2nd place, after beating Duke and NCSU. But there's a lot of ball to play between now and the end of the season.

[sagegrouse]

Respectfully, I think this whole thread is a little entitled. UNC should be given serious consideration as the 1st best team in the ACC given that they are currently alone at the top. Duke has struggled mightily at home with bottom-feeders (Md & UVA) in a weak national conference, and I'm not going to just assume they will win that conference. I could certainly see this Duke team losing to UNC twice this regular season. UNC's inside game is playing better than ours right now. They also have some quality guards who can get hot. The best team in the ACC will be determined by the games played. But whichever team that is will earn it with wins and losses. I hope it's Duke, but they're going to have to earn it. The team and the fans need to be hungry and humble. A thread that assumes we're obviously the best team in the ACC is neither humble nor hungry.

You, sir, have single-handedly tumbled the UNC empire by suggesting just this PM that it deserved consideration as the best team in the ACC. My sincere thanks. :)

sagegrouse

[richardjackson199]

You, sir, have single-handedly tumbled the UNC empire by suggesting just this PM that it deserved consideration as the best team in the ACC. My sincere thanks. :)

sagegrouse

Go Jackets! UNC still warrants consideration for first in the ACC given they are currently tied for first. Like Duke, they have come back to win on their home court and have one road loss in conference. Given the streak, they have plenty of motivation to play well Tuesday. And Duke has plenty to focus on in Raleigh this week, given what happened last year. This year's State team is more talented, even bigger inside, and RBC will be a very tough place to play. Then when Duke & UNC play, anyone who thinks UNC will play like they did at Tech hasn't been watching basketball very long. Anything could happen in both those games. Without Irving, our Duke team is also very vulnerable as has been shown in every conference game. Remember most of them have been at home, and we haven't proven ourselves on the road either. Stay humble and hungry! Go Duke! (I'll try it again, and if it works against the Clemson streak I want another pitchfork). :)

[gumbomoop]

Go Jackets! UNC still warrants consideration for first in the ACC given they are currently tied for first. Like Duke, they have come back to win on their home court and have one road loss in conference. Given the streak, they have plenty of motivation to play well Tuesday. And Duke has plenty to focus on in Raleigh this week, given what happened last year. This year's State team is more talented, even bigger inside, and RBC will be a very tough place to play. Then when Duke & UNC play, anyone who thinks UNC will play like they did at Tech hasn't been watching basketball very long. Anything could happen in both those games. Without Irving, our Duke team is also very vulnerable as has been shown in every conference game. Remember most of them have been at home, and we haven't proven ourselves on the road either. Stay humble and hungry! Go Duke! (I'll try it again, and if it works against the Clemson streak I want another pitchfork). :)

UNC is not currently tied for first, nor, technically, for 2d, nor even 3d. Very precisely, they are currently tied with Clemson for 4th. The winner of UNC-Clemson on Tues will move into a temporary 4-way tie for 1st with FSU, Duke, and BC. Unless all 3 of those teams lose on Wed eve, the Heels [or, preferably, Clemson] won't be in first as of late Wed eve, either. My own preference would be that Duke and BC are tied for 1st as of late Wed, as I have BC in the 2-poll.

But if you can jinx the Heels by continuing to sing their praises, by all means, go to it.

[richardjackson199]

UNC is not currently tied for first, nor, technically, for 2d, nor even 3d. Very precisely, they are currently tied with Clemson for 4th. The winner of UNC-Clemson on Tues will move into a temporary 4-way tie for 1st with FSU, Duke, and BC. Unless all 3 of those teams lose on Wed eve, the Heels [or, preferably, Clemson] won't be in first as of late Wed eve, either. My own preference would be that Duke and BC are tied for 1st as of late Wed, as I have BC in the 2-poll.

But if you can jinx the Heels by continuing to sing their praises, by all means, go to it.

You are right, and I stand corrected. Since the teams have played uneven numbers of games, I was counting number of losses since that ends up being the main determining factor for teams at the top of the standings. When it's all said and done, they will have played the same number of games. My own preference would be that Duke wins Wed. and BC, FSU, and UNC all lose putting Duke alone at the top.

[Bob Green]

Florida State is looking solid by winning on the road over Miami. The team that finishes 2nd is going to be the team that can separate themselves with road wins.

[gumbomoop]

Florida State is looking solid by winning on the road over Miami. The team that finishes 2nd is going to be the team that can separate themselves with road wins.

Yes, a big win at Miami. I agree that the most likely way for any of the 2-hopefuls to get second place [or first, if Duke falters a bit], is to win out at home, and get 3-4 road wins. I'd give FSU a win in all their remaining home games. Their unbalanced schedule is relatively easy, with road games left with Wake, Clemson, GaTech, NCSt, Md, and UNC. An oddity which assures that they'll be rested for 2 of their road games: they have a week's rest before both the Clemson and Wake road games. Strange.

As posters on the FSU-specific thread [challenge Duke for first?] suggest, 12-4 is certainly possible. Even 13-3? Wow, that would indeed challenge the Devils.

But to climb that high, they have to win out at home. Could UNC or BC upset them in Tallahassee, if the Noles have a poor shooting night?

[davekay1971]

Florida State is a bad matchup for UNC. UNC's biggest strength (it's inside game) will have a challenge against FSU's interior defense. If UNC had the kind of shooters that could open the interior, they might negate that, but they haven't shown that this year. On the other end of the court, IF Kitchen and Dulkys can hit some outside shots, FSU can take advantage of the perimeter defense that UNC struggles with at times. FSU/UNC in the Dean Dome could go either way, but I think FSU holds serve at home.

I think 2nd place in the ACC is shaping up to be UNC vs. FSU. Right now, I give the edge to FSU.

[gumbomoop]

Any upset win - many road wins and a home win v. a highly-ranked opponent - is a "big" win. UVa at VTech, BC at Md were big, but not as big as FSU over Duke and at Miami, the latter especially because the Noles really "stole" one last night. They shot horribly [FG 32%, 3-pt FG 17.6 %, FT 53%], but benefited from the "not-Duke factor": i.e., Miami played with much more intensity in Durham than last evening at home.

[CDu]

Florida State is a bad matchup for UNC. UNC's biggest strength (it's inside game) will have a challenge against FSU's interior defense. If UNC had the kind of shooters that could open the interior, they might negate that, but they haven't shown that this year. On the other end of the court, IF Kitchen and Dulkys can hit some outside shots, FSU can take advantage of the perimeter defense that UNC struggles with at times. FSU/UNC in the Dean Dome could go either way, but I think FSU holds serve at home.

I think 2nd place in the ACC is shaping up to be UNC vs. FSU. Right now, I give the edge to FSU.

I agree with this assessment. However, FSU's offensive deficiencies make them a very questionable team. They just struggle so much on that end of the floor. If they can get past BC though, the door opens up for them. They'll have two against Wake and a tough one at Maryland and home against Miami. The rest (two against Wake, home against UVa, and @Ga Tech) are games they should win. And then there'll be the two against UNC which may decide things. UNC's schedule is a little tougher. They have to go to BC, Miami, Clemson, and Duke, and they have tough games at home against us and Maryland.

If I had to guess right now, I'd say it's between UNC and FSU. I can't believe I'm saying that after FSU's losses to Auburn and Va Tech.

[Bob Green]

Speaking of winning on the road, Virginia Tech is pounding Maryland in College Park, 53-36, with 14 minutes left in the game. Maryland turned the ball over twice while I typed this short post.

[Bob Green]

Virginia Tech 74, Maryland 57. Erick Green had an outstanding game for the Hokies (24 points on 12-16 shooting). ESPN box score credits Jordan Williams with an 11 and 11 double-double so he keeps his streak alive if the official box score agrees.

[DukieInBrasil]

Virginia Tech 74, Maryland 57. Erick Green had an outstanding game for the Hokies (24 points on 12-16 shooting). ESPN box score credits Jordan Williams with an 11 and 11 double-double so he keeps his streak alive if the official box score agrees.
I watched part of the game (ESPN3 wouldn't cooperate on my computer at home) and Md. looked pretty bad, at home, in a game they needed to win. I think we can pretty much write off Md. for 2nd place in the ACC. I think they'll get it going enough to finish in the top 5 of the league, but not 2nd.

[CDu]

I watched part of the game (ESPN3 wouldn't cooperate on my computer at home) and Md. looked pretty bad, at home, in a game they needed to win. I think we can pretty much write off Md. for 2nd place in the ACC. I think they'll get it going enough to finish in the top 5 of the league, but not 2nd.

I agree with this assessment. Maryland's trouble is that their guard play is pretty bad right now. So despite having perhaps the best big man in the ACC, they can struggle at times. They still have no meaningful wins of any sort, and their resume is thus entirely based on "quality losses" and a walloping of a merely decent Penn State team. Maryland plays tough defense and if they could get good guard play they'd be a factor. But that's just not been happening for them.

On the other side, Va Tech has one of the best guards in the ACC in Delaney, and an emerging talent at PG in Green. Their frontcourt is a little more suspect, especially since Jeff Allen seems to prefer committing fouls and shooting jumpshots rather than being a post presence. But their wins over FSU and Maryland and the near-win at UNC show that good guard play tends to trump good post play with bad guard play.

[JasonEvans]

I simply did not have time to put together the Va Tech summary. Frankly, they are so injured and have so underperformed, I don't think they would have gotten much support anyway.

I am going to live to regret these words, aren't I?

-Jason "best way to finish 2nd in the ACC, have Jason dismiss your chances ;) " Evans

[gumbomoop]

Still early, but one could plausibly argue that the league has Contenders, Pretenders, maybe one Pretend Contender, and No-Chancers.

Last, pun intended, first: No chance for Wake or UVa.

Pretenders: Clemson and GaTech - not enough talent to get anywhere near 2d place. Md, Miami, NCSt - more talent, but in a 1-3 hole, including some home losses, in Md's case, 2.

BC is the Pretend Contender. My own choice to finish #2, their status as still in the race for #2 is based principally on their fine 4-1 start. Along with Duke, they have the toughest remaining schedule, and will now be tested, severely, as their next four are: @FSU, @Duke, UNC, VaTech. Should they emerge from those at 6-3, then they move to Contender. At 5-4, they're more Pretender than Contender.

That leaves 4 Contenders for ACC # 1 and 2: Duke, FSU, UNC, VaTech.

Duke - tough schedule, but Devils have best team, talent, experience, depth, coaching.

FSU - Great defense, big win over Duke, stolen win at Miami, easy schedule [Wake twice, no more games with either Duke or VaTech], 2 big, big games with UNC.

UNC - Talented but wildly inconsistent, a team [and a coach] with some issues, tough schedule with Duke and FSU twice. Their next 5 will be testy: @Miami, NCSt, @BC, FSU, @Duke.

VaTech - Great guard, no depth, easiest schedule their big advantage, with but a single game remaining with any of the Contenders: Duke at home late season.

[loran16]

Still early, but one could plausibly argue that the league has Contenders, Pretenders, maybe one Pretend Contender, and No-Chancers.

Last, pun intended, first: No chance for Wake or UVa.

Pretenders: Clemson and GaTech - not enough talent to get anywhere near 2d place. Md, Miami, NCSt - more talent, but in a 1-3 hole, including some home losses, in Md's case, 2.

BC is the Pretend Contender. My own choice to finish #2, their status as still in the race for #2 is based principally on their fine 4-1 start. Along with Duke, they have the toughest remaining schedule, and will now be tested, severely, as their next four are: @FSU, @Duke, UNC, VaTech. Should they emerge from those at 6-3, then they move to Contender. At 5-4, they're more Pretender than Contender.

That leaves 4 Contenders for ACC # 1 and 2: Duke, FSU, UNC, VaTech.

Duke - tough schedule, but Devils have best team, talent, experience, depth, coaching.

FSU - Great defense, big win over Duke, stolen win at Miami, easy schedule [Wake twice, no more games with either Duke or VaTech], 2 big, big games with UNC.

UNC - Talented but wildly inconsistent, a team [and a coach] with some issues, tough schedule with Duke and FSU twice. Their next 5 will be testy: @Miami, NCSt, @BC, FSU, @Duke.

VaTech - Great guard, no depth, easiest schedule their big advantage, with but a single game remaining with any of the Contenders: Duke at home late season.

Agree with all except in this ACC, BC is a contender. They have so much offense that they can beat anyone, which means they could be an overall contender or bomb out. But that puts them in contender mode until they bomb out to me.

[gumbomoop]

Agree with all except in this ACC, BC is a contender. They have so much offense that they can beat anyone, which means they could be an overall contender or bomb out. But that puts them in contender mode until they bomb out to me.

I hope you're right, as they got my vote in the 2-poll. KenPom has them losing their next 7 in a row - though only 1 by a big margin [at CIS], and most very close, which means he doesn't actually predict 7 straight L's. I put them in the special Pretend Contend category mostly because of their tough upcoming schedule. I'll sure be watching some of their game at FSU Sat night. If their O trumps FSU's D, I assume a fair number of posters would say, "Ok, now they're Contenders."

[CDu]

Agree with all except in this ACC, BC is a contender. They have so much offense that they can beat anyone, which means they could be an overall contender or bomb out. But that puts them in contender mode until they bomb out to me.

Agreed. BC is like the inverse of FSU. They can score very efficiently (FSU can't), but they can't defend anyone (FSU can). I think that they'll eventually flame out once they start playing the big boys in conference. But I can't say that with any confidence right now. And I agree with gumbomoop that the FSU game this weekend may go a long way in helping (or hurting) their cause as a contender.

[loran16]

The FSU game should be odd.....All D vs All O. How do you predict such a game?

[Bob Green]

The first line of this ACC Weekend Preview (http://www.accsports.com/articles/201101219634/acc-weekend-preview-jan-21.php) article at the ACC Sports Journal reads:


Who is the second-best team in the ACC?

so it naturally fits into this thread. Boston College (4-1) at Florida State (4-1) is a pivotal game as is Clemson (2-2) at Maryland (1-3). If Maryland loses they will be in a deep hole as will be the loser in the Miami (1-3) at N.C. State (1-3) game.

I am looking forward to a great Saturday of ACC Basketball starting with Georgia Tech (2-2) at Virginia (1-3) on ESPN3 at 0900 for us West Coast residents followed by Duke (4-1) at Wake Forest (0-4) at 1300.

Road wins are going to be key this season (well, actually, they are key every season) so it will be interesting to see how many road teams in addition to Duke pull of victories today.

[devildeac]

The first line of this ACC Weekend Preview (http://www.accsports.com/articles/201101219634/acc-weekend-preview-jan-21.php) article at the ACC Sports Journal reads:



so it naturally fits into this thread. Boston College (4-1) at Florida State (4-1) is a pivotal game as is Clemson (2-2) at Maryland (1-3). If Maryland loses they will be in a deep hole as will be the loser in the Miami (1-3) at N.C. State (1-3) game.

I am looking forward to a great Saturday of ACC Basketball starting with Georgia Tech (2-2) at Virginia (1-3) on ESPN3 at 0900 for us West Coast residents followed by Duke (4-1) at Wake Forest (0-4) at 1300.

Road wins are going to be key this season (well, actually, they are key every season) so it will be interesting to see how many road teams in addition to Duke pull of victories today.

Shoot, we should have submitted all our posts and poll to them saying who we thought would be #2 this year.:D

[NSDukeFan]

The first line of this ACC Weekend Preview (http://www.accsports.com/articles/201101219634/acc-weekend-preview-jan-21.php) article at the ACC Sports Journal reads:



so it naturally fits into this thread. Boston College (4-1) at Florida State (4-1) is a pivotal game as is Clemson (2-2) at Maryland (1-3). If Maryland loses they will be in a deep hole as will be the loser in the Miami (1-3) at N.C. State (1-3) game.

I am looking forward to a great Saturday of ACC Basketball starting with Georgia Tech (2-2) at Virginia (1-3) on ESPN3 at 0900 for us West Coast residents followed by Duke (4-1) at Wake Forest (0-4) at 1300.

Road wins are going to be key this season (well, actually, they are key every season) so it will be interesting to see how many road teams in addition to Duke pull of victories today.

I would think this would be a NCAA tournament elimination game for Maryland (as will most of the rest of their home games) as well as a top four ACC elimination game. As you have said road wins are key in a balanced league and Maryland has already lost two home games against the teams it is competing against for top tier spots.

[ice-9]

The FSU game should be odd.....All D vs All O. How do you predict such a game?


The ACC is a conference of "has this, doesn't have that."

FSU has the defense but no offense.
BC has the offense but no defense.

Virginia Tech has the backcourt but no frontcourt.
Maryland has the frontcourt but no backcourt.

Virginia has good coaching but no talent.
NC State has talent but no good coaching.

Duke has a freshman who can produce (at an all-star level) but can't play.
UNC has a freshman who cannot produce but can play.

If some of these pairs can be synthesized into one you'd have some very strong teams!

[Bob Green]

The ACC is a conference of "has this, doesn't have that."

FSU has the defense but no offense.
BC has the offense but no defense.

This is true.



Virginia Tech has the backcourt but no frontcourt.
Maryland has the frontcourt but no backcourt.

It's VT & Maryland so who cares?


Virginia has good coaching but no talent.
NC State has talent but no good coaching.

This is not true. Virginia has talent.


Duke has a freshman who can produce (at an all-star level) but can't play.
UNC has a freshman who cannot produce but can play.

This is :cool:

[SupaDave]

This is true.




It's VT & Maryland so who cares?



This is not true. Virginia has talent.



This is :cool:

Virginia definitely has talent. They lit Georgia Tech up today from behind the arc.

[DukieInBrasil]

My pick for 2nd place took a big hit at FSU today, though that was not an upset nor does it definitively take BC out of contention. It just makes FSU look that much more the team to beat, if not for 1st, for 2nd.

[ice-9]

Virginia definitely has talent. They lit Georgia Tech up today from behind the arc.

I meant it relatively of course, e.g. NBA talent...

[Johnboy]

The FSU game should be odd.....All D vs All O. How do you predict such a game?

I know I have the benefit of hindsight (and you may also note my vote for FSU in the poll) but my immediate reaction to the question is that defense trumps offense more often.

[camion]

I know I have the benefit of hindsight (and you may also note my vote for FSU in the poll) but my immediate reaction to the question is that defense trumps offense more often.

Pitching always beats batting — and vice-versa. - Yogi Berra

[DukieInBrasil]

If FSU can keep this defensive intensity up there's no reason to think they can't finish in any worse than 2nd place. They've shown that they can win when scoring only 53. If they slip up defensively on the road, they could drop a game or 2. They've got Clemson, UNC, GT, Wake, MD and State on the road. It's conceivable that they could drop 3 of those games. There's no reason that they should be losing any more games at home this year, with only UNC of any note is going to Tallahassee, and let's be honest, the Noles' defense will just smother the Holes.

[CDu]

Interestingly, Pomeroy still doesn't think a ton of FSU. He has the teams rated as follows:

Duke #2
Va Tech #21 (but rising)
Maryland #22 (but falling)
UNC #23 (sort of falling)
FSU #37
Clemson #41
BC #63
Miami #69
Ga Tech #82
NC State #86
Virginia #106
Wake Forest #245(!)

I think that FSU's loss to Auburn is doing a good bit of damage to FSU's resume. Pomeroy has Auburn as (I believe) the worst BCS team in the country (#264!).

[devildeac]

Interestingly, Pomeroy still doesn't think a ton of FSU. He has the teams rated as follows:

Duke #2
Va Tech #21 (but rising)
Maryland #22 (but falling)
UNC #23 (sort of falling)
FSU #37
Clemson #41
BC #63
Miami #69
Ga Tech #82
NC State #86
Virginia #106
Wake Forest #245(!)

I think that FSU's loss to Auburn is doing a good bit of damage to FSU's resume. Pomeroy has Auburn as (I believe) the worst BCS team in the country (#264!).

I believe you may be correct as Weak Forest is at 245.:rolleyes:

[94duke]

Through Tue, Jan 25
http://www.kenpom.com/conf.php?c=ACC


Team Pomeroy
Duke 0.9784 2
pUNC 0.9292 21
MD 0.9289 22
VPI 0.9125 32
FL St. 0.8945 39
Clemson 0.8906 40
BC 0.8236 63
Miami 0.804 70
GA Tech 0.7952 72
NC St. 0.7355 88
UVa 0.6824 106
Wake 0.2734 247

[loran16]

Through Tue, Jan 25
http://www.kenpom.com/conf.php?c=ACC


Team Pomeroy
Duke 0.9784 2
pUNC 0.9292 21
MD 0.9289 22
VPI 0.9125 32
FL St. 0.8945 39
Clemson 0.8906 40
BC 0.8236 63
Miami 0.804 70
GA Tech 0.7952 72
NC St. 0.7355 88
UVa 0.6824 106
Wake 0.2734 247

My favorite stat: The gap between Wake and UVA (#11 team in conference) is larger than the gap between UVA and DUKE.

Just sooo bad.

[DukieInBrasil]

my pick (or at least the team I wrote about, BC) looks like they may be fading from the rolls of 2nd place contenders. It's hard not to argue that both FSU and UNC have a pretty solid lock, along with Duke, on the top 3 slots in the league. Now, as I mentioned earlier, FSU has some pretty tough road games coming up, and while every road game is a challenge and therefore loseable, there are 3 that could legitimately end up as losses, bringing the Noles to 12-4. I won't make any predictions about UNC cuz they have already blown my expectations for them out of the water, but they are coming into the harder part of their schedule and they will hopefully lose 2 games to Duke and could reasonably end up losing 3 more, to finish 10-6. 12-4 is better than 10-6, so I think my vote is now going with FSU cuz BC will lose tonight vs Duke, leaving them with a best possible record of 13-3, which is highly unlikely to happen with the D that BC plays, but they could still end up in 3rd place.

[gumbomoop]

Tough loss for Miami, good win for Heels, in the face of excellent 3-pt shooting by Miami.

Here are 2 entirely different scenarios for Miami [a team I thought, preseason, would get 6th in the ACC]:

1. They muddle through the remainder of the season, reach KenPom's predicted 5-11 finish, calls for Haith's departure.

2. They play tough at VaTech this Sunday, lose again, but..... then win 3 straight [GaTech and UVa at home, Wake away], and are thus on a big uptick when the Devils visit in mid-Feb. They'd be awfully dangerous then, as they'd be thinking they'd turned the corner, with some NCAA bubble hopes, all depending on upsetting Duke.

Probably the Canes are a year away, but Haith will certainly be hoping for another year, as he returns 7 of his top 8, including 3 solid guys in Johnson, Grant, and Scott. They do need another big, as they have to alternate Johnson and Gamble, leaving them with an on-floor lineup that's always a center, 2 wings, 2 combo guards.

If the players enjoy playing for Haith, I'm thinking it would be a mistake to dump Haith at the end of this season, as it's likely they're on the verge of a breakout year in '11-'12. As opposed to this season, when they are only - now - long-shot-possibly on that verge [scenario #2 above]. Under any scenario, they'll still be a tough game for Duke.

[Kedsy]

Probably the Canes are a year away, but Haith will certainly be hoping for another year, as he returns 7 of his top 8, including 3 solid guys in Johnson, Grant, and Scott. They do need another big, as they have to alternate Johnson and Gamble, leaving them with an on-floor lineup that's always a center, 2 wings, 2 combo guards.

If the players enjoy playing for Haith, I'm thinking it would be a mistake to dump Haith at the end of this season, as it's likely they're on the verge of a breakout year in '11-'12.

On the other hand, it's not out of the realm of possibility that Johnson and Scott leave after this season, is it?

[loran16]

On the other hand, it's not out of the realm of possibility that Johnson and Scott leave after this season, is it?

Neither are considered as high draft picks at last check, or even first rounders, so no. Not very likely. If Miami learns to play D and simply grows through experience, they will be formidable next year.

[94duke]

Through Thu, Jan 28
http://www.kenpom.com/conf.php?c=ACC


Team Pomeroy AdjO AdjD
Duke 0.9769 2 118.9 8 85.9 6
MD 0.9383 14 106.6 80 84.2 2
pUNC 0.9248 24 108.2 69 87 9
VPI 0.9096 31 107.8 72 88.2 15
FSU 0.892 38 101.5 151 84.5 3
Clem 0.8918 39 109.9 50 91.4 43
BC 0.823 60 119.9 5 104.9 230
Miami 0.8025 71 113.1 32 100.1 136
GaT 0.7867 74 103.6 120 92.5 49
NCSU 0.7307 91 108.2 68 99.2 129
UVa 0.6186 124 105.4 96 101.1 158
Wake 0.2604 254 97.4 234 106.6 262

[sagegrouse]

There have been 36 ACC games to date and the home team has won 26 of them --

No one as yet has a truly outstanding record in terms of road wins --

Duke is 2-1 (incl. WF)
UNC 2-1
Md 2-1 (but two home losses:eek:)
FSU is 1-1 (it has played four home games.... Hmmmm.)
UVa and VT are 1-2
BC is 1-3
Clemson, GT, Miami, State and Wake are all 0-3

Only Md and Miami (1-2) and Wake (0-2) have shown weakness at home.

For me, the real question mark is FSU. An epic win over Duke at home and a two-point win at Miami is what they have to show for the ACC season IMHO. We'll see if its fast start holds up, as six of the last ten are away.

sagegrouse

[Bob Green]

For me, the real question mark is FSU. An epic win over Duke at home and a two-point win at Miami is what they have to show for the ACC season IMHO. We'll see if its fast start holds up, as six of the last ten are away.

sagegrouse

Ken Pomeroy says FSU will go 3-3 (http://www.kenpom.com/team.php?team=Florida St.) in those six games and end the season with an 11-5 conference record. That should be good enough for a second place finish in the ACC regular season.

[94duke]

Ken Pomeroy says FSU will go 3-3 (http://www.kenpom.com/team.php?team=Florida St.) in those six games and end the season with an 11-5 conference record. That should be good enough for a second place finish in the ACC regular season.

Through Thursday's games, he has projected FSU and pUNC to tie for 2nd.


Team Overall Conf Proj
Duke 19-1 6-1 13-3
FSU 15-5 5-1 11-5
pUNC 14-5 4-1 11-5
MD 13-7 3-3 10-6
VPI 13-6 3-3 10-6
Clem 14-6 3-3 9-7
BC 14-7 4-3 8-8
GaTech 10-9 3-3 7-9
NCSU 12-8 2-4 5-11
UVa 11-9 2-4 5-11
Miami 12-8 1-5 5-11
Wake 7-13 0-5 1-15

http://kenpom.com/conf.php?c=ACC

[CDu]

Ken Pomeroy says FSU will go 3-3 (http://www.kenpom.com/team.php?team=Florida St.) in those six games and end the season with an 11-5 conference record. That should be good enough for a second place finish in the ACC regular season.

I think it comes down to UNC and FSU. I'm still not sure about FSU, as the stink from losing to Auburn and from losing so badly to Va Tech make me question them. They still have two against UNC, and very losable road games at Clemson, at Ga Tech, at Maryland, and at NC State.

I think 12-4 or 11-5 will get it done for 2nd place. It remains to be seen which of UNC and FSU get there (if not both).

[Bob Green]

I'm still not sure about FSU, as the stink from losing to Auburn and from losing so badly to Va Tech make me question them.

Clemson is taking it to FSU early. It is 11-4 at the first TV timeout. FSU's offense looks completely out of sync as usual.

[Bob Green]

At the half: Clemson 27, FSU 18. Clemson scored 20 points in the first seven and a half minutes and then could only mange to score seven more points in the half. Singleton spent the majority of the half on the bench with two fouls. The second half will be interesting.

[CDu]

And this is why I'm not sold on FSU as the #2 team in the conference. It's hard to take them seriously when they've now had two games in which they've failed to reach 45 points. It's just all the more frustrating that we lost to them.

[sagegrouse]

For me, the real question mark is FSU. An epic win over Duke at home and a two-point win at Miami is what they have to show for the ACC season IMHO. We'll see if its fast start holds up, as six of the last ten are away.

sagegrouse

Wow! I wonder if FSU can win any games on the road. UNC, Georgia Tech, Maryland, NC State, and ... well... Wake.

The Seminoles offensive incompetence is breath-taking. As someone else commented, when the aliens departed Derwin Kitchen's body after the Duke game, there is no one who can generate offense.

sagegrouse

[sagegrouse]

The home teams are 29-10 in the ACC this year, which is pathetic considering the talent differentials among the teams. Today's winners were Wake (wow!), Clemson and UNC (walkover). I suspect it reflects the youthfulness of many teams that are not at all hardened to ACC road games.

Based on the results to date though, it looks like the the ACC teams are assembling into three tiers:

First
Duke 6-1
UNC 5-1
FSU 5-2 ('Tho I have my doubts about the Seminoles. Today they played like Seminarians.)

Middle (alphabetically)
BC 4-3
Clemson 4-3
Georgia Tech 3-3 (I know, I know... but the Jackets are winning at home.)
Maryland 3-4
Virginia Tech 3-3

Bottom (alphabetically)
Miami 1-5
State 2-5 (Failed yet to beat a team outside this tier)
Virginia 2-5
Wake 1-5

sagegrouse

[Bob Green]

Georgia Tech is 3-0 at home in ACC games so it will be interesting to see how they handle Maryland today. The Terps cannot afford to lose to the Yellow Jackets if they desire to keep alive any hope of making the NCAAT. It is only late January but Maryland is already facing must win situations.

Ken Pomeroy gives Maryland a 68% chance to win and predicts a 71-66 score. Las Vegas has Maryland favored by two points.

[JasonEvans]

Based on the results to date though, it looks like the the ACC teams are assembling into three tiers:

First
Duke 6-1
UNC 5-1
FSU 5-2 ('Tho I have my doubts about the Seminoles. Today they played like Seminarians.)

Middle (alphabetically)
BC 4-3
Clemson 4-3
Georgia Tech 3-3 (I know, I know... but the Jackets are winning at home.)
Maryland 3-4
Virginia Tech 3-3

Bottom (alphabetically)
Miami 1-5
State 2-5 (Failed yet to beat a team outside this tier)
Virginia 2-5
Wake 1-5

As I stated here, (http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?24011-This-Week-in-the-ACC-1-24-1-30&p=469257#post469257) do not sleep on Clemson. I will not be at all shocked to see them find their way into a tight race for 2nd or 3rd in the conference.

They are a different team today than they were 6 weeks ago.

--Jason "Brownell is gonna be a strong contender for ACC COY, I think" Evans

[cptnflash]

This thread should be renamed "Karma's Revenge," because the second best team in the ACC right now is Duke. The best team, unfortunately, resides eight miles down the road and is currently in Boston laying the wood to BC.

[jipops]

This thread should be renamed "Karma's Revenge," because the second best team in the ACC right now is Duke.

A notion that probably should have been stated a few weeks ago. Having said that, and I know some would disagree, I'm still proud of where the Duke team stands today despite the weaknesses that have to be compensated for.

[dukelifer]

This thread should be renamed "Karma's Revenge," because the second best team in the ACC right now is Duke. The best team, unfortunately, resides eight miles down the road and is currently in Boston laying the wood to BC.

How quickly one forgets the beating they took by Ga Tech just two weeks ago. They are on a little roll- but can they sustain. Time will tell.

[cptnflash]

How quickly one forgets the beating they took by Ga Tech just two weeks ago. They are on a little roll- but can they sustain. Time will tell.

The beating I would like to forget is the one we took by St. John's just two days ago.

[dukelifer]

The beating I would like to forget is the one we took by St. John's just two days ago.

Well that is what winning is for- to forget. This is one of those bad stretches that make Duke fans realize how hard it is to win it all. A big Duke loss - a huge Carolina win. UNC looks for real- Duke looks like they will ever win again. Beginning to feel like a real ACC season again around here.

[DukieInBrasil]

BC's hopes for a 2nd place finish are over, and UNC's hopes are stronger than ever. I'm really hoping that the boys can figure out how to take it to MD tonight so that we don't have to consider Duke as the frontrunner for 2nd place.

[richardjackson199]

Originally Posted by richardjackson199
Respectfully, I think this whole thread is a little entitled. UNC should be given serious consideration as the 1st best team in the ACC given that they are currently alone at the top.

Still think that after UNC got hammered by Ga Tech (by 20)? Saying Duke is the clear #1 team in the ACC may seem conceited, but it's still true. And I wouldn't say something like that if I thought it was even arguably close.

At the moment I'd say FSU has the upper hand for 2nd place, after beating Duke and NCSU. But there's a lot of ball to play between now and the end of the season.

It's clear now who is the 2nd best team in the ACC. Respectfully, this entitled thread got exactly what it deserved.

[ice-9]

Originally Posted by richardjackson199
Respectfully, I think this whole thread is a little entitled. UNC should be given serious consideration as the 1st best team in the ACC given that they are currently alone at the top.


It's clear now who is the 2nd best team in the ACC. Respectfully, this entitled thread got exactly what it deserved.


Karma hurts. :(

[throatybeard]

For tis the sport to haue the enginer / Hoist with his owne petar

Hamlet, III.iv.207-08