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View Full Version : Too many guards next year? Are there transfers for Duke in the future?



cbros
12-21-2010, 11:40 AM
I was talking with a fellow Duke fan the other day and we began talking about the crazy amount of depth Duke will have next year at the guard positions. This discussion got me thinking...What will Duke's guard rotation look like next year and if it is as crowded as I think it might be will there be any transfers for current/future Duke guards.

First let's take a look at Duke's current guard situation. On this year's roster there are 6guards: Smith, Irving, Dawkins, Curry, Peters, and Thornton. Now Smith and Peters are seniors and therefore won't be back next year but if you take a look at the incoming guards these two spots will get filled by Rivers and Cook. So IF Irving sticks around (which I know is a toss up, but there are reports that he and Rivers would like to play together plus the possibility of an NBA lockout plus his toe injury) then we are going to have 6 highly touted/recruited guards to fill 2 slots on the court.

When taking a step back my inital thought is that Irving probably won't stick around, even with the above mentioned reasons, therefore the point of overcrowding is mute. But still Duke now has 5 guys who were all 'the man' in HS fighting for PT. With this depth I thought maybe K will go with a 3 guard set and run like he wanted to do this year. But if the youngest Plumlee comes in and shines on the lowpost then K might want to put a more traditional lineup on the court. I personally don't see all 6 current/future guards sticking around and only playing for Duke. In other words I think that someone will decide that waiting isn't for him and go another route.

What do you guys/gals think?

Bluedog
12-21-2010, 11:47 AM
In other words I think that someone will decide that waiting isn't for him and go another route.

What do you guys/gals think?

I think speculating about players potentially transferring before they've even set foot on campus doesn't do anybody any good and is a silly exercise. Heck, I think speculating about current players transferring is a silly exercise.


But still Duke now has 5 guys who were all 'the man' in HS fighting for PT.

All of Duke's players were "the man" in HS. Otherwise, they wouldn't have been offered a scholarship to play at Duke.

Too much depth is never a "problem." Coach K will play the best players while also subbing to take advantage of the depth if he thinks that gives the team the best chance to win. If somebody isn't happy with the situation, then so be it. They're not promised PT when they commit to Duke - Coach K makes it clear that it must be earned.

Even Quinn Cook said if Irving stays (which doesn't seem likely), he gets to practice against one of the best PGs in the nation everyday, which will make him better in the long run. And if Irving leaves, Cook will get to play more in games. So, in his mind it's a win/win. I'm not worried and I think we'll be fine. Having a lot of players that can contribute is a good thing.

superdave
12-21-2010, 11:47 AM
I was talking with a fellow Duke fan the other day and we began talking about the crazy amount of depth Duke will have next year at the guard positions. This discussion got me thinking...What will Duke's guard rotation look like next year and if it is as crowded as I think it might be will there be any transfers for current/future Duke guards.

First let's take a look at Duke's current guard situation. On this year's roster there are 6guards: Smith, Irving, Dawkins, Curry, Peters, and Thornton. Now Smith and Peters are seniors and therefore won't be back next year but if you take a look at the incoming guards these two spots will get filled by Rivers and Cook. So IF Irving sticks around (which I know is a toss up, but there are reports that he and Rivers would like to play together plus the possibility of an NBA lockout plus his toe injury) then we are going to have 6 highly touted/recruited guards to fill 2 slots on the court.

When taking a step back my inital thought is that Irving probably won't stick around, even with the above mentioned reasons, therefore the point of overcrowding is mute. But still Duke now has 5 guys who were all 'the man' in HS fighting for PT. With this depth I thought maybe K will go with a 3 guard set and run like he wanted to do this year. But if the youngest Plumlee comes in and shines on the lowpost then K might want to put a more traditional lineup on the court. I personally don't see all 6 current/future guards sticking around and only playing for Duke. In other words I think that someone will decide that waiting isn't for him and go another route.

What do you guys/gals think?

I think with Nolan's 30-35 minutes opening up, and with Andre playing more 3 than 2, it's not necessarily the situation you seem to describe. Probably the player who would see less time is Thornton, but it is my understanding that he accepts his limited role.

But I think it's silly for you to bring up the transfer issue considering Rivers wants Irving there and Cook has stated he knows Irving could be back and picked Duke in spite of more wide open backcourts elsewhere.

HCheek37
12-21-2010, 11:51 AM
As we've seen this year, K will play 3 of those guys at once without a blink of the eye.

There's a difference between speculation about getting a recruit and people leaving the program.

Lets lock this thread up, alot of basketball to be played between now and next year.

jv001
12-21-2010, 11:52 AM
I knew this question would come up. I just didn't think it would be this early in the season. You are correct the back court will be crowded next year and I think if Kyrie's injury is season ending(God forbid) the question will be asked more than one time. People will speculate whether Kyrie will return next year to play with Austin. As for our guards, I think Dre will play the 3 in Kyle's absence and Austin will play the #2 in Nolan's absence. Cook and Curry will play most of the minutes at PG if Kyrie does not return. Having too many guards is better than not having enough. And I know we have the coach that can figure all this out. Right now I'm concerned about this year's team and how we adjust to Kyrie's absence. Go Duke!

airowe
12-21-2010, 11:55 AM
1) Marshall isn't going to affect playing time decisions next year. Let's be realistic.

2) Dawkins will play more of a small forward role next year, as he has done this year.

3) Rivers is 6'5"-6'6" and will allow Duke to play the 3-guard lineup more comfortably.

4) It's wayyyyyy too early to be worried about this.

5) GTHC

Duvall
12-21-2010, 11:56 AM
What do you guys/gals think?

I think you're overlooking the fact that Duke will also be losing its starting small forward who plays 32 minutes per game this season. Duke almost certainly be playing three guards next year out of necessity, and will have six players competing for time at those three spots. That's not too many guards for 120 minutes, that's quality depth.

yancem
12-21-2010, 11:58 AM
I was talking with a fellow Duke fan the other day and we began talking about the crazy amount of depth Duke will have next year at the guard positions. This discussion got me thinking...What will Duke's guard rotation look like next year and if it is as crowded as I think it might be will there be any transfers for current/future Duke guards.

First let's take a look at Duke's current guard situation. On this year's roster there are 6guards: Smith, Irving, Dawkins, Curry, Peters, and Thornton. Now Smith and Peters are seniors and therefore won't be back next year but if you take a look at the incoming guards these two spots will get filled by Rivers and Cook. So IF Irving sticks around (which I know is a toss up, but there are reports that he and Rivers would like to play together plus the possibility of an NBA lockout plus his toe injury) then we are going to have 6 highly touted/recruited guards to fill 2 slots on the court.

When taking a step back my inital thought is that Irving probably won't stick around, even with the above mentioned reasons, therefore the point of overcrowding is mute. But still Duke now has 5 guys who were all 'the man' in HS fighting for PT. With this depth I thought maybe K will go with a 3 guard set and run like he wanted to do this year. But if the youngest Plumlee comes in and shines on the lowpost then K might want to put a more traditional lineup on the court. I personally don't see all 6 current/future guards sticking around and only playing for Duke. In other words I think that someone will decide that waiting isn't for him and go another route.

What do you guys/gals think?

K usually plays his best players and doesn't worry about traditional roles/line-ups so I would bet that next year we see a lot of a 3 guard line-ups. Dawkins is currently playing some minutes at the 3 and I think that both he and Rivers will be able to play that spot against most teams. I don't expect MP3 to be ready to contribute heavy minutes as a freshman so the front court will be anchored by MP1, MP2, Kelly and Hairston.

The potential clog up is more specifically at the pg spot if Irving does come back. Curry, Thornton and Cook would all three looking for minutes at the lead guard spot. Cook as a freshman wouldn't get many minutes but with Irving and Rivers almost definitely gone his sophomore year I think he will be fine. Thornton is the guy I would worry the most about. He's not getting many minutes this year and if Irving sticks around that won't change next year. If Cook ends up being better than him or we bring in a stud pg from the class of '12 (not many around but you never know who might develop) then Thornton may be relegated to the end of the bench his entire 4 years.

superdave
12-21-2010, 12:01 PM
If people thought there was too much April-October 2010 speculation about lineups, playing time and generally associated roster whathaveyou, wait until 2011! It's going to be a free-for-all. Perhaps this thread would be better used to speculate about the over-under for off-season posts about breaking down minutes than to actually speculate about next year's minutes.

mo.st.dukie
12-21-2010, 12:03 PM
No way Duke doesn't start and play 3 guards the entire game. It will go back to a similar lineup that we had in 04 with 3 guards. Starters could be Curry, Rivers, Dawkins, Mason/Ryan, Miles. That means Thornton, Cook, and Gbinije are subbing for Curry, Rivers, and Dawkins with either Tyler or Quinn getting left out of the main rotation/bulk of the minutes by the time ACC play starts. If Kyrie plays again this season then there is a VERY slim chance he returns next season, even if he doesn't play again this season there is still very little chance he returns.

dukeimac
12-21-2010, 12:06 PM
Well you have Rivers and Cook coming in.

They will still have Irving (hoping), Curry, Dre and Thornton.

Next year Duke goes with Dre at the 3 more than any other position. Gbinije won't be ready to contribute more time than Dre. The experience Dre is getting this year puts him way out in front of Bini.

Irving starts at the PG and Rivers a the SG, with Curry contributing a lot off the bench.

I'm not sure Thornton gets any more time next year than he gets this year.

Then PF and post get split the same as it does this year, Hairston won't see any more time than he gets this year. Baby Plumlee gets time late in blow out games.

If there is a transfer in order, my money is on Thornton. I put Cook ahead of Thornton based on the pro scouts evaluation of the players.

superdave
12-21-2010, 12:12 PM
If there is a transfer in order, my money is on Thornton. I put Cook ahead of Thornton based on the pro scouts evaluation of the players.

Has this been in the news anywhere? Is there any evidence supporting this? It is my understanding that Tyler came in with the understanding of what his role would be and that is what his role looks like now, and likely for next year as well. I'd like to see any evidence that he no longer is of the mindset (because I dont think there is any evidence of that).

1 24 90
12-21-2010, 12:17 PM
When taking a step back my inital thought is that Irving probably won't stick around, even with the above mentioned reasons, therefore the point of overcrowding is mute.

What do you guys/gals think?

Not to be harsh, but I think this thread should be "mute".

sagegrouse
12-21-2010, 12:21 PM
I personally don't see all 6 current/future guards sticking around and only playing for Duke. In other words I think that someone will decide that waiting isn't for him and go another route.

What do you guys/gals think?

Let me give you another scenario. Austin Rivers has said he is 6-5 in his stocking feet, and I think may still be growing. Andre Dawkins, listed at 6-4 both last year and this, may also grow a bit more. I don't see any problem with these two playing the wing, where the only other player will be freshman Gbinije.

That would leave Irving (probably leaving), Cook, and Thornton at the guard position with minutes also going to Rivers and Dawkins.

If Irving leaves, I see no problem: Plumlee, Plumlee/Kelly, Rivers, Dawkins, and Cook/Thornton will start. If he stays, then I suppose both Cook and Thornton come off the bench.

My wild fantasy (Hey, I'm an old guy) is that Rivers grows to 6-7, and Coach puts him in the middle.

sagegrouse

Kedsy
12-21-2010, 12:22 PM
Let me give you another scenario. Austin Rivers has said he is 6-5 in his stocking feet, and I think may still be growing. Andre Dawkins, listed at 6-4 both last year and this, may also grow a bit more. I don't see any problem with these two playing the wing, where the only other player will be freshman Gbinije.

That would leave Irving (probably leaving), Cook, and Thornton at the guard position with minutes also going to Rivers and Dawkins.

If Irving leaves, I see no problem: Plumlee, Plumlee/Kelly, Rivers, Dawkins, and Cook/Thornton will start. If he stays, then I suppose both Cook and Thornton come off the bench.

My wild fantasy (Hey, I'm an old guy) is that Rivers grows to 6-7, and Coach puts him in the middle.

sagegrouse

Well, unless I'm not reading it properly, you've appeared to have left Seth Curry out of your calculations.

Clearly it's going to be crowded. We'll have 7 guys for 3 positions if Kyrie stays. But that doesn't mean anybody's going to transfer. This thread should be locked.

jimsumner
12-21-2010, 12:29 PM
If Irving stays, sure it gets crowded.

But Irving is unlikely to be back next year. Very unlikely. Very, very unlikely.

Duke will be replacing Irving with Cook, Smith with Rivers, and Singler with Gibinjie. Curry, Dawkins and Thornton return. Six players for 120 minutes. Same as this year, before Irving's injury.

And Tyler Thornton loves Duke. Absolutely loves the place.

sagegrouse
12-21-2010, 12:33 PM
Well, unless I'm not reading it properly, you've appeared to have left Seth Curry out of your calculations.

Clearly it's going to be crowded. We'll have 7 guys for 3 positions if Kyrie stays. But that doesn't mean anybody's going to transfer. This thread should be locked.

How many errors can I make in one day? I guess I'm going for the record.

sagegrouse

OldPhiKap
12-21-2010, 12:46 PM
What if Nolan comes back for a fifth year? Then we REALLY have to start worrying about transfers.

Otherwise, I'm not sure what point this thread serves a week or so before we start this year's ACC conference play.

duke4ever19
12-21-2010, 12:48 PM
I think speculating about players potentially transferring before they've even set foot on campus doesn't do anybody any good and is a silly exercise. Heck, I think speculating about current players transferring is a silly exercise.


Let me remind some of you that the vast majority of the topics on this board are of a speculative nature. We've got everything from "How good will the Heels be by March" to the timeline that K overtakes Bobby Knight on the wins column, speculative pre-game threads and..... oh yeah, I almost forgot.... over 40 pages just on the possible status of a certain players toe.

You might think it's silly, but this guy is only doing what everyone else does on this board. What sets this board apart from a lot of boards is the level of reason applied to the topics at hand, but I for one think it's a relevant topic and certainly in line with the rest of the threads on this board.

Carry on...

gam7
12-21-2010, 12:49 PM
When taking a step back my inital thought is that Irving probably won't stick around, even with the above mentioned reasons, therefore the point of overcrowding is mute.


Obviously, you meant to use the word "moo." The way I like to think of it is that it's like a cow's opinion. It doesn't matter. It's moo. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ifdqEmlx-I

Acymetric
12-21-2010, 01:04 PM
If Irving stays, sure it gets crowded.

But Irving is unlikely to be back next year. Very unlikely. Very, very unlikely.

Duke will be replacing Irving with Cook, Smith with Rivers, and Singler with Gibinjie. Curry, Dawkins and Thornton return. Six players for 120 minutes. Same as this year, before Irving's injury.

And Tyler Thornton loves Duke. Absolutely loves the place.

I think Tyler will be very important on the court for Duke if not next year then the year after. I really like his game, and he's got some of the best guys in the business to help him improve. Not everyone plays big minutes their first year or two, and not everyone is opposed to taking a backseat at first and then stepping into a bigger role as an upperclassman.

Kedsy
12-21-2010, 01:14 PM
Let me remind some of you that the vast majority of the topics on this board are of a speculative nature. ... You might think it's silly, but this guy is only doing what everyone else does on this board.

It's a fine line. Speculating without basis about players transferring is very close to spreading an unfounded rumor. I trust the moderators to decide if it crosses the line or not.

uh_no
12-21-2010, 01:14 PM
What if Nolan comes back for a fifth year? Then we REALLY have to start worrying about transfers.

Otherwise, I'm not sure what point this thread serves a week or so before we start this year's ACC conference play.

Well i've heard a rumor from an insider board so I can't tell you what the source is, but its highly likely that with the loss of irving, kyle and nolan will take a medical redshirt this season with the hopes of all 3 coming back next year with a better chance to win it all.

weezie
12-21-2010, 01:25 PM
I knew this question would come up. I just didn't think it would be this early in the season.

True indeed. But one thing you can count on here at DBR, every silver lining invariably produces a cloud.

SuperTurkey
12-21-2010, 01:27 PM
Well i've heard a rumor from an insider board so I can't tell you what the source is, but its highly likely that with the loss of irving, kyle and nolan will take a medical redshirt this season with the hopes of all 3 coming back next year with a better chance to win it all.

Interesting. Should we discuss the coming scholarship crunch in this thread or elsewhere?

Bluedog
12-21-2010, 01:28 PM
Let me remind some of you that the vast majority of the topics on this board are of a speculative nature. We've got everything from "How good will the Heels be by March" to the timeline that K overtakes Bobby Knight on the wins column, speculative pre-game threads and..... oh yeah, I almost forgot.... over 40 pages just on the possible status of a certain players toe.



It's a fine line. Speculating without basis about players transferring is very close to spreading an unfounded rumor. I trust the moderators to decide if it crosses the line or not.

In my opinion, speculating about how good the Heels will be in March or how a certain game will play out is a LOT different than speculating about a players' possible discontent with the team. The former examples have no actual ramifications. The Heels will either be good or bad in March - us guessing is a fun exercise based on reasonable past data, but in the end, our guesses are just for our own enjoyment and won't hurt anybody...or affect the outcome in any way.

On the other hand, while message boards certainly aren't all that powerful, these "transfer rumors/speculations" DO get back to players. As an 18 year old kid, do you think if you heard that others think you should or might transfer, it might do something to your psyche? Maybe or maybe not. But I personally don't think it's worth the risk. For example, I know for a fact Andre heard about "rumors" of him transferring to Stanford. In this case, he brushed them aside as they were completely unfounded, but a different player in a slightly different situation may have been unsettled by knowing the information is going around internet circles.

I guess my point is that speculating about the outcome of a game can be fun and doesn't have any potential negative effects. Speculating about a player transferring (although in this case it's more "generic" so I don't see it as that big of a deal since it's not naming names) does get back to the player in many cases and can change their psyche. Is it going to happen in all or even most cases? Probably not. But it's possible it can, and I'd rather let players make decisions without outside influence/murmurings. If they decide transferring is the best course of action for their future, then so be it. Let them decide on their own.

Just my two cents, and you can obviously feel free to disagree. I realize we're all on the same team here, so this wasn't meant to be antagonistic or patronizing in any way. :)

wilko
12-21-2010, 01:39 PM
Well i've heard a rumor from an insider board so I can't tell you what the source is, but its highly likely that with the loss of irving, kyle and nolan will take a medical redshirt this season with the hopes of all 3 coming back next year with a better chance to win it all.

That's hilarious!

BUT one scenario that might actually be possible...

Irving has played what 7 or 8 games for Duke? so..... IF, IF he comes back in time for the ACC Tourney and the NCAA tourney (putting aside all ready-to-contribute and possible team chemistry issues and assuming Duke wins the games he plays)

Could he come back this year, help us win a National Championship, yet play few enough games to qualify for a red-shirt? Effectively getting a Do-over for his Fr. yr of eligibility.

That * could* put him in the unique and unequaled position(?) of a 2x National Champion winning, early departing Freshman. So instead of a 1 and done... it would be more like 1 and a half....

Things like this happen when work is slow and shopping is done.

OldPhiKap
12-21-2010, 02:06 PM
In my opinion, speculating about how good the Heels will be in March or how a certain game will play out is a LOT different than speculating about a players' possible discontent with the team. The former examples have no actual ramifications. The Heels will either be good or bad in March - us guessing is a fun exercise based on reasonable past data, but in the end, our guesses are just for our own enjoyment and won't hurt anybody...or affect the outcome in any way.

On the other hand, while message boards certainly aren't all that powerful, these "transfer rumors/speculations" DO get back to players. As an 18 year old kid, do you think if you heard that others think you should or might transfer, it might do something to your psyche? Maybe or maybe not. But I personally don't think it's worth the risk. For example, I know for a fact Andre heard about "rumors" of him transferring to Stanford. In this case, he brushed them aside as they were completely unfounded, but a different player in a slightly different situation may have been unsettled by knowing the information is going around internet circles.

I guess my point is that speculating about the outcome of a game can be fun and doesn't have any potential negative effects. Speculating about a player transferring (although in this case it's more "generic" so I don't see it as that big of a deal since it's not naming names) does get back to the player in many cases and can change their psyche. Is it going to happen in all or even most cases? Probably not. But it's possible it can, and I'd rather let players make decisions without outside influence/murmurings. If they decide transferring is the best course of action for their future, then so be it. Let them decide on their own.

Just my two cents, and you can obviously feel free to disagree. I realize we're all on the same team here, so this wasn't meant to be antagonistic or patronizing in any way. :)

Agreed, and I'll take it one step further. I do not think it is healthy to start a long thread about who we "would miss" or who "doesn't fit" or who "gets left out." NONE of us know that, and spreading that type of tripe can only cause trouble.

No offense to the OP, who I assume asked in good faith. It is an interesting question, and it may be a more timely topic when we know who is coming back and who is not this summer.

For now, let's enjoy the talent we have on this team and appreciate the fact that they all seem more interested in the team than individual stats. That is not a given, ever.

hurley1
12-21-2010, 02:16 PM
maybe the title to this thread should be........Next Year Duke Will be LOADED !!!...:D

JBDuke
12-21-2010, 02:32 PM
I think this thread has served its purpose, therefore, it is now CLOSED.