This Week in the ACC - 12/20-12/26

[pfrduke]

Another week, another series of spoiled chances for strong out of conference wins. Someone asked in another thread whether the best win of the week was Virginia over Oregon or Virginia Tech over Mississippi State - I actually think it was a different game altogether, with Georgia Tech winning away from home against a Richmond team ranked over 50 spots higher in the Pomeroy rankings. But in any event, when the rallying cry from the week that was is "well, at least the Yellow Jackets beat the Spiders," it's not much of a week to crow about. For the week to come, there's not much challenging competition, other than the field FSU will face in Hawaii.

Monday could (and, barring disaster, should) put Coach K right with Dean at 879. Virginia gets a chance to continue building momentum when Norfolk State comes to town.

[1]Duke hosts [260]Elon
[77]Virginia hosts [317]Norfolk State

Tuesday gives us an NIT rematch from last year as the tribe from William & Mary come to Chapel Hill. It's early in the season, but at least one of those teams is not as good as last season's version (and the jury's still out on Carolina). Miami starts the first of three games in three days in something called the Las Vegas Holiday Hoops Classic, which Miami should win comfortably. And Wake shouldn't sleep on the Blue Hose; Presbyterian is coming off of a road win at fellow BCS disappointment Auburn.

[68]Miami in Las Vegas vs. [133]Oral Roberts
[25]North Carolina hosts [266]William & Mary
[176]Wake Forest hosts [270]Presbyterian

Wednesday puts 8 ACC teams in action. The most compelling matchups are Clemson at Charleston and Georgia Tech to Siena - according to Pomeroy, these are both toss-ups, with the ACC road team being favored by just 1 or 2 points and given only a 55% chance to win.

[68]Miami in Las Vegas vs. [144]Rice
[43]Boston College hosts [175]Bucknell
[73]NC State hosts [251]Delaware State
[59]Clemson at [92]Charleston
[77]Virginia hosts [283]Seattle University
[78]Georgia Tech at [127]Siena
[24]Maryland hosts [328]New Jersey Institute of Technology
[32]Florida State at the Diamond Head Classic vs. [230]Hawaii

Thursday wraps up the Las Vegas classic, puts FSU in second-round action in Hawaii, and sends Virginia Tech to Rochester, New York, to take on St. Bonaventure. Of those three locations, Rochester is definitely where I'd least like to be two days before Christmas (no offense to native Rochestrians).

[68]Miami in Las Vegas vs. [180]Akron
[41]Virginia Tech in Rochester vs. [169]St. Bonaventure
[32]Florida State at the Diamond Head Classic vs. [38]Butler/[108]Utah

Friday is dark.

Saturday sends the Seminoles back out on the court on Christmas Day to wrap up the Diamond Head Classic. If they can make it to the finals, Baylor seems to be the likeliest opponent, and if they can beat Baylor, that will be a great resume win.

[32]Florida State at the Diamond Head Classic vs. TBA

Sunday Clemson gets back to business early with a matchup against Delaware State.

[59]Clemson hosts [251]Delaware State

ACC Non-Conference Record: 84-36
Record vs. BCS: 20-23
AEC: 3-0
A-10: 3-2
A-Sun: 10-2
Big 10: 6-9
Big 12: 4-2
Big East: 4-5
Big South: 4-1
Big West: 3-0
Colonial: 3-3
CUSA: 2-2
Horizon: 2-0
Ind: 4-0
Ivy: 1-1
MAAC: 2-0
MAC: 1-0
MEAC: 3-0
MVC: 2-1
MWC: 0-1
NEC: 3-0
OVC: 1-0
Pac-10: 3-3
Patriot: 3-0
SEC: 3-4
Southern: 11-0
Southland: 1-0
Sun Belt: 1-0
WCC: 1-0

[LSanders]

Does anyone ever recall a year in which the ACC has only ONE school in the Top 25? I know things will change, but how much when conference starts and teams beat each other up?

[Olympic Fan]

Does anyone ever recall a year in which the ACC has only ONE school in the Top 25? I know things will change, but how much when conference starts and teams beat each other up?

I've posted the answer before -- there was one week last year (Feb. 22) when Duke at No. 5 was the only ranked team. Wake Forest (23 the week before) had dropped out and Maryland (No. 22 the next week) was coming in.

Before that, you have to go back to two weeks early in the 1977-78 season (dec. 6/dec. 13) when UNC was the only team ranked. You have to go back to 1969 to find a streak of three weeks or longer with just one team.

In 1963-64-65-66 -- four seasons, there were just three weeks when 2 ACC teams were ranked. For most of that stretch, Duke was the only ranked team in the ACC. But I should point out that during that period, the poll only ranked a top 10.

PS Just to clarify one point about this week's schedule -- the Las Vegas Hoops Classic is not a tournament (all opponents are predetermined). I think Miami should win all three games itr has schedule there, but that's not the same as winning the event.

[pfrduke]

PS Just to clarify one point about this week's schedule -- the Las Vegas Hoops Classic is not a tournament (all opponents are predetermined). I think Miami should win all three games itr has schedule there, but that's not the same as winning the event.

I'm never sure about how those non-tournament multi-team neutral site events are treated. They may not hand out a trophy, but I'm willing to call Miami the "winner" of the classic if it goes 3-0. In layman's terms, even if not in technical terms, they'll "win" the classic if they beat every team they play.

[loran16]

PS Just to clarify one point about this week's schedule -- the Las Vegas Hoops Classic is not a tournament (all opponents are predetermined). I think Miami should win all three games itr has schedule there, but that's not the same as winning the event.

To be fair, to count as a tournament for the NCAA (for the additional 5 games you can get out of it), it doesn't require that opponents be undetermined.

See the joke tourney that OSU and UF were involved in, in which they basically played a round robin against 4 midmajors, all but one game at home (the OSU-UF game was obviously at someone else's place, it was at UF i think).

[pfrduke]

Today's example of ACC futility: Norfolk State (1-7, 0-1 MEAC) 35, Virginia 30, 12:19 to play.

[Ultrarunner]

Today's example of ACC futility: Norfolk State (1-7, 0-1 MEAC) 35, Virginia 30, 12:19 to play.

In defense of Virginia, they're woefully under-manned in the post and are desparately trying to fight through the season. They pulled it out in the end showing some fortitude.

In a couple of years, this will be a pretty good team if Bennett can keep recruiting well.

[DukeWarhead]

Seeing score updates - The Blue Hose are taking it to Wake to the tune of double digits. I haven't watched them play at all this year, but haven't heard anything good. Anybody have a good read why a team with a good foundation like Wake can take such a nose dive? Is it talent? Chemistry? Bzdelik?
I'm sure to enjoy watching Duke go up against this Wake squad, but I have to admit, I wish the ACC in general wasn't stinking it up on the court so much thus far. Well, maybe BC, Clemson, and NC State will pan out...
But whats the dealio with the Deacs??
Any pro bono analysis out there???

[loran16]

And Wake shouldn't sleep on the Blue Hose; Presbyterian is coming off of a road win at fellow BCS disappointment Auburn.


Seriously Wake fell to the Blue Hose. Auburn and Wake need to play to determine worst team ever in a BCS Conference.

[Acymetric]

Is there precedent for a coach being fired after 1 year?

[Olympic Fan]

Is there precedent for a coach being fired after 1 year?

Neil McGeachy?

[Duvall]

Seriously Wake fell to the Blue Hose. Auburn and Wake need to play to determine worst team ever in a BCS Conference.

So what's the answer for Wake - relegation or contraction?

[dairedevil]

Presbyterian College beats Wake Forest 66-64, while shooting 50% from the field, 8 of 16 from 3 pts, and 10 for 10 free throws...

of course, they just beat Auburn a few days ago, too.

They're not a bad team, just a small school that just moved up from Div-II a couple of years ago..I think Duke was their season opener and first televised game. They played unc last year...in the infamous toss of a PC fan by roy.

Since my son's a PC grad, I think it's great. I just hate to see it used as rationale that the ACC is no good this year.

[loran16]

So what's the answer for Wake - relegation or contraction?

See here's the problem with Relegation. It'd probably put them in the SoCon. And well, I'm not sure they'd do too well there either! According to Pomeroy rankings BEFORE TODAY, Wake would be the 6th best team in the SoCon.

Ummm, yeah.

[tieguy]

Anybody have a good read why a team with a good foundation like Wake can take such a nose dive?

Don't overestimate their foundation; they lost virtually all their scoring and defense from last year (20% of O returned; 16% of D. Next worst in the ACC: GT at 37 and 41%, respectively.) They're currently 323 of 345 teams Pomeroy tracks in terms of experience. And they weren't that great to begin with- they got an at-large bid last year but were very, very lucky to do so, with several OT wins and a weak finish despite a weak schedule. And their recruiting class wasn't great, and one of the better players in it (Chennault) hasn't played.

So... yeah, not actually that much to work with for a new coach. Still no excuse for their losses, though.

~tieguy

[JasonEvans]

Don't overestimate their foundation; they lost virtually all their scoring and defense from last year (20% of O returned; 16% of D. Next worst in the ACC: GT at 37 and 41%, respectively.) They're currently 323 of 345 teams Pomeroy tracks in terms of experience. And they weren't that great to begin with- they got an at-large bid last year but were very, very lucky to do so, with several OT wins and a weak finish despite a weak schedule. And their recruiting class wasn't great, and one of the better players in it (Chennault) hasn't played.

So... yeah, not actually that much to work with for a new coach. Still no excuse for their losses, though.

If they were just sucking it up in the ACC and against BCS opponents, then the rationale that they are young and not tremendously talented (for an ACC team) might hold water.

But the losses to teams like PC, Stetson, Wilmington, and Winthrop as well as the nail-biter against UNCG are just inexcusible for a team in a BCS conference. Wake still has more top 100 recruits on their roster than all of those opponents I just mentioned combined!

This is a horrid coaching job. There is just no other way around it. In just weeks on the job, it is clear that Bzadzdzilick is in waaaay over his head.

and when things are going this badly, it becomes much harder to recruit too.

-Jason "Wake may spend every year in the conference basement until they fire this clown" Evans

[loran16]

GT lost to Siena (unsurprising).
Virginia lost to Seattle (Ummm yeah that's bad) at home.

Clemson beat CofC (good result).

Meanwhile, NC State beat Delaware State on a last second shot, while BC had issues putting down Bucknell.

Man this conference is terrible.

[JasonEvans]

GT lost to Siena (unsurprising).
Virginia lost to Seattle (Ummm yeah that's bad) at home.

Clemson beat CofC (good result).

Meanwhile, NC State beat Delaware State on a last second shot, while BC had issues putting down Bucknell.

Man this conference is terrible.

Yes, the conference horrid, the worst I can recall (as I have said many times) since I became an ACC fan during my youth in the 1970s.

According to Pomeroy, Tech was a 58% favorite at Sienna. Pom expected Tech to win 73-71, so it really was not that much of an upset. Of course, part of that is a function of Tech being so bad this year that Pom does not make them a heavy favorite over anyone but the very worst of teams when Tech is on the road.

Virginia's loss is much worse. The Cavs were a 96% favorite over Seattle and projected to win 82-61. They lost 59-53.

But, sometimes Pom really gets it rght. For example, Pom had projected that Maryland would beat NJ Institue of Tech 82-50. The actual final score was 89-50. Maryland is my current pick for 2nd in the conference (UNC is close).

-Jason "I am starting to think the notion of the Duke goig unbeaten in conference is not so absurd-- not because we are good but because almost everyone else is really, really bad" Evans


Clemson's win was a nice one. CoC is a top 100 team (92) and Clemson was only a 53% favorite with a projected score of 72-71.

[gofurman]

See here's the problem with Relegation. It'd probably put them in the SoCon. And well, I'm not sure they'd do too well there either! According to Pomeroy rankings BEFORE TODAY, Wake would be the 6th best team in the SoCon.

Ummm, yeah.

And Furman just beat on South Carolina - see my name ;)

Sadly for the ACC (been a Duke fan all my life) the SoCon would win a few games this year for sure against the bottom of the league. I don't think there is much arguing that

[gofurman]

GT lost to Siena (unsurprising).
Virginia lost to Seattle (Ummm yeah that's bad) at home.

Clemson beat CofC (good result).

Meanwhile, NC State beat Delaware State on a last second shot, while BC had issues putting down Bucknell.

Man this conference is terrible.

UVA is without Mike Scott , right?? That's their one and only guy to count on

[juise]

Going into tonight, Seattle and Delaware St. were a combined 1-11 on the road. Yipes.

[Duvall]

UVA is without Mike Scott , right?? That's their one and only guy to count on

Scott played 31 minutes tonight, but he may not have been fully effective in his first game back. Still got 12 points and 8 rebounds, though.

[Bob Green]

-Jason "I am starting to think the notion of the Duke going unbeaten in conference is not so absurd-- not because we are good but because almost everyone else is really, really bad" Evans

The rubber will meet the road in the road games (ah, I wrote a pun :o):

@ FSU (1/12)
@ NCSU (1/19)
@ MD (2/2)
@ VT (2/26)
@ UNC (3/5)

Those five games are the ones I worry about (but I'm a worry wart). However, NCSU and VT are really struggling early. FSU will be a challenge because it is the first road game, MD is always tough in College Park, and Duke-Carolina is Duke-Carolina!

Bob "I agree we could go 16-0 in the ACC this season" Green

[Kedsy]

The rubber will meet the road in the road games (ah, I wrote a pun :o):

@ FSU (1/12)
@ NCSU (1/19)
@ MD (2/2)
@ VT (2/26)
@ UNC (3/5)

Those five games are the ones I worry about (but I'm a worry wart). However, NCSU and VT are really struggling early. FSU will be a challenge because it is the first road game, MD is always tough in College Park, and Duke-Carolina is Duke-Carolina!

Bob "I agree we could go 16-0 in the ACC this season" Green

Look out for @Miami, too. I don't know why but that one is making me nervous.

[devildeac]

The rubber will meet the road in the road games (ah, I wrote a pun :o):

@ FSU (1/12)
@ NCSU (1/19)
@ MD (2/2)
@ VT (2/26)
@ UNC (3/5)

Those five games are the ones I worry about (but I'm a worry wart). However, NCSU and VT are really struggling early. FSU will be a challenge because it is the first road game, MD is always tough in College Park, and Duke-Carolina is Duke-Carolina!

Bob "I agree we could go 16-0 in the ACC this season" Green
Rubber?
Road?
Bob Green with a pun?

See, Bob, there's nothing toe it.:o:rolleyes:

I think we'll lose 1-2 of those road games just 'cuz it's the acc and I have watched some of our performances on the road over the last 100 years or so, in addition to some of the very poorly officiated games (cough, f$u, cough, murland) that I think it is almost inevitable.

[Reilly]

From Wed Jan 19 though Wed Feb 16, Duke plays 6 of 9 games on the road.

Jan 2 - Jan 15: 4 of 5 at home.
Jan 16 - Feb 16: 3 of 9 at home.
Feb 20 - March 5: 3 of 5 at home.

Feb 2 @Maryland is Duke's 4th road game out of its last 5 games. Might be the toughest given the circumstances.

[JasonEvans]

Feb 2 @Maryland is Duke's 4th road game out of its last 5 games. Might be the toughest given the circumstances.

Followed by emotional home games with NCSU and UNC... perhaps our toughest stretch of the season.

--Jason "the ACC is down, but won't be easy" Evans

[DukieInBrasil]

F$U lost their match vs. Butler. Just barely, but still. This after beating a Hawai'i squad that has a good record. Once again, F$U looks like a tough, defensive team with limited offensive potential.

[Olympic Fan]

F$U lost their match vs. Butler. Just barely, but still. This after beating a Hawai'i squad that has a good record. Once again, F$U looks like a tough, defensive team with limited offensive potential.

I stayed up and watched this one ... strange performance by FSU. The first half was pretty much as you'd expect: great defense by the 'Noles but inept offensively. I think the score was 21-13 with about two minutes left in the half. FSU got six quick points to end the half and was only down 21-19. The first 10 minutes of the second half were the same way, slow, low-scoring. FSU stayed close, but couldn't quite catch up.

From about 10 minutes to four minutes, Butler broke it open, stretching to a double figure lead (it was late and I wasn't taking notes, but I think it got to 15-16 points).

Just under four minutes, something happened to FSU and they suddenly looked like Duke from 3 -- Singleton, Kitchens, even Okaru were throwing them in from all over the place. But even though they made up ground, they played TOO frantic on defense, going all-out for the steal. They got a few, but by committing to the pressure, they also gave up a ton of open shots and fouls. That's why the couldn't quite catch up. The three-point final margin was as close at it got -- FSU hit a three with 0.8 seconds left.

[JasonEvans]

F$U lost their match vs. Butler. Just barely, but still. This after beating a Hawai'i squad that has a good record. Once again, F$U looks like a tough, defensive team with limited offensive potential.

Welllllll.

Butler was beating FSU by a double-digit margin much of the second half. FSU made a late run, but I don't think they ever had a chance to even tie the game.

As for the win against "a Hawaii squad that has a good record," that record has come against terrible teams. Hawaii's best win was against Montana St, the #235 team in the KenPom rankings. Hawaii also has a loss to #224 Cal-Poly. They are not good and the win over them is not very impressive.

Washington St knocked off Baylor on the other side of the tournament bracket, so I think FSU will get Baylor tonight. A good chance for the Noles to show they are a high-quality team and stake a claim as the second best in the ACC.

--Jason "sigh, it always seems to be one-step-forward, two-steps-back for the ACC this year" Evans

[Ping Lin]

--Jason "sigh, it always seems to be one-step-forward, two-steps-back for the ACC this year" Evans

Just out of curiosity, what steps count as forward in your book? I'm honestly scratching my head to come up with one this year.

Outside of Duke (and perhaps Maryland), the conference has been spectacularly underperforming this year.

[Bob Green]

Just out of curiosity, what steps count as forward in your book? I'm honestly scratching my head to come up with one this year.

Virginia beating #17 Minnesota could be viewed as a step forward, while Virginia losing to Seattle U is definitely two steps back.

[tieguy]

Carolina over Kentucky would be the other one, presumably. And really, all of Carolina's losses now are to solid, competent teams; they could take other steps forward any day now.

[Olympic Fan]

Don't get the love for the Terps.

Yeah, they've been close in their games with good opponents -- but lost them all.

What's their best win, Charleston? And didn't they lose at home to Boston College?

Now, BC -- despite their loss to Yale (and their recent close call to Bucknell) probably has the second or third best ACC resume (UNC has a better win and no bad losses).

[gw67]

With the out-of-conference games nearly over and ACC games about to begin in earnest, it’s a good time to look at some of the team/individual performances to date:

• The Devils have been every bit as good as expected and appear to be as good as the Brand and JWill teams. The offensive play of this year’s team has been splendid and they had (have) two players who were (are) nightmare matchups (Irving and Singler). They also have some size and decent inside play on the defensive end which allows their perimeter players to overplay and make their deny defense effective. Losing Irving for several games hurts but they are still head and shoulders better than any other ACC team.
• No other ACC team has stepped up to project themselves as a top team in the league. Based on performance, Pomeroy has Maryland, UNC, FSU, BC and Virginia Tech as the next best teams. We shall see. The unbalanced schedule may play a role. Wake and Georgia Tech appear to be the bottom feeders this year.
• I figured that Georgia Tech would have a drop off this year but I assumed that their perimeter play would keep them in the middle of the league. I have not seen them play, but Shumpert, Oliver, Rice, Udofia, Miller, Storrs and Morris are shooting a combined 26% from 3-pt territory which is miserable for even a high school team.
• The top individual performers so far are Jackson, Williams, Delaney, Smith, Singler, Scott, Zeller, Singleton and before he was hurt, Irving. Since Irving is sidelined, the top performer to date, IMO, has been Reggie Jackson closely followed by Singleton and Williams.
• The biggest individual disappointments have been Snaer and the entire group of perimeter players at UNC and Georgia Tech. Snaer was highly regarded and seemed to be coming on strong at the end of his freshman year and I expected him to be the leader for the Noles this year. Instead he has been a 5th wheel on a team that needs someone to step up besides Singleton. I suppose that Barnes is considered a disappointment by Tar Heel fans because of all the hype but his stats are decent for a first year player.

gw67

[loran16]

FSU gets a 2nd shot at a good non-conference win when they play Baylor tonight, though Baylor is not a team guaranteed to keep a good standing throughout the year. They really need this win (Baylor is possibly dropping out of the T25 regardless of the outcome of this game)

[Bob Green]

• The biggest individual disappointments have been Snaer and the entire group of perimeter players at UNC and Georgia Tech.

Dexter Strickland has emerged with solid performances in the past three games. He has scored in double figures all three games on 18-29 (62%) shooting from the field and 11-13 (84.6%) on free throws. If Carolina is going to steady up and establish themselves as the second best team in the ACC, Strickland will need to keep up the strong play.

[DukieInBrasil]

Welllllll.
As for the win against "a Hawaii squad that has a good record," that record has come against terrible teams. Hawaii's best win was against Montana St, the #235 team in the KenPom rankings. Hawaii also has a loss to #224 Cal-Poly. They are not good and the win over them is not very impressive.
--Jason "sigh, it always seems to be one-step-forward, two-steps-back for the ACC this year" Evans

well, I'm glad you did the research I was too lazy to do, which is why I only mentioned the record and didn't say anything about being a good team. I really only mentioned it to put it in the context of the tournament they are playing in, since they played/are playing on consecutive days.
The ACC is worse this year than at any time I can remember, and other than Duke's flawless performance so far, it makes me very sad.

[Bluedog]

Florida State is in good position to get a decent win vs #15 Baylor in Hawaii. Although they've looked absolutely pathetic closing it out. They were up 5 and had two careless turnovers for no reason and terrible fouls. Luckily for them, Baylor has missed three straight free throws, including the front end of a one and one. FSU up 3 right now with 24 sec to go and the ball.

Update: FSU gets the win.

[Newton_14]

Florida State is in good position to get a decent win vs #15 Baylor in Hawaii. Although they've looked absolutely pathetic closing it out. They were up 5 and had two careless turnovers for no reason and terrible fouls. Luckily for them, Baylor has missed three straight free throws, including the front end of a one and one. FSU up 3 right now with 24 sec to go and the ball.

Update: FSU gets the win.

Finally. A good win for the ACC. FSU was without Gibson (Broken Hand) but was able to overcome that and get the W. FSU is a very solid defensive team. Tough to score on. They played a mix of man-to-man and a very active zone. If they could score the ball better they would be a solid top 25 team.

Acy has improved quite a bit for Baylor. He was very aggressive inside.

Not earth shattering but given how the season has gone so far for the league, I will take this win.

[loran16]

Finally. A good win for the ACC. FSU was without Gibson (Broken Hand) but was able to overcome that and get the W. FSU is a very solid defensive team. Tough to score on. They played a mix of man-to-man and a very active zone. If they could score the ball better they would be a solid top 25 team.

Acy has improved quite a bit for Baylor. He was very aggressive inside.

Not earth shattering but given how the season has gone so far for the league, I will take this win.

To be fair, Baylor is about to drop out of the top 25, (3 losses in 4 total potential tough games, if you include Arizona State as a tough team).

[DukieInBrasil]

good win for them. Though Hawai'i may not be a highly regarded team, they did have a good record when the Noles played them, then lost to a good Butler team and then beat a good (in the dork polls as well as reg. polls) Baylor team. Does either Sagarin or Ken Pom take into account the value of games when playing them on back-to-back-to-back nights?
Given VT's demise, F$U, UNC and UVa have done the best job of carrying the ACC banner, and none of them really deserve to be ranked in the top 25.