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View Full Version : Featherston on young guns who could catch K



Tom B.
12-13-2010, 06:43 PM
First, thanks to Al Featherston for the (as usual) excellent piece today on Coach K as he approaches Dean Smith's win total. One thought I had as I was reading it.... shouldn't any discussion of young coaches who conceivably might have a chance to catch Coach K's win total include Jeff Capel?

Capel has the advantage of starting his coaching career at a young age -- he was just 27 when he got his first head coaching job at VCU, one year younger than K was when he started coaching at Army. He won 79 games there in four seasons (compare that total to Coach K's 73 wins in five seasons at Army), and since then has won another 87 in four-plus seasons at Oklahoma. He currently has 166 total wins, and he's 35 years old. Coach K didn't hit 166 wins until early in the 1985-86 season, when he was 38.

Of course a lot of things could happen. Oklahoma seems to be going through a bit of a rough patch over the last season or so, and obviously there are no guarantees that Capel will keep winning at the kind of pace that would be needed to catch K. But if we're going to talk about Brad Stevens or other young coaches who might have at least a remote chance of someday catching K, it seems like Capel should be in the conversation.

deezl
12-13-2010, 06:48 PM
As Mercury Morris says when people are chasing the Dolphins undefeated season, "Don't call me when you're in my town, call me when you're on my block and I see you next door moving your furniture in". I think it works here as well.

uh_no
12-13-2010, 06:51 PM
As Mercury Morris says when people are chasing the Dolphins undefeated season, "Don't call me when you're in my town, call me when you're on my block and I see you next door moving your furniture in". I think it works here as well.

are you honestly suggesting we take anything mercury morris says as the 'right' way to do something?

rthomas
12-13-2010, 06:53 PM
If I talk about someone who will ultimately top Coach K and all his records, Jeff Capel is in my conversation. He is an awesome coach.

deezl
12-13-2010, 06:54 PM
are you honestly suggesting we take anything mercury morris says as the 'right' way to do something?

In this case, with 166 wins and Coach K still coaching. It's a bit ridiculous.

uh_no
12-13-2010, 07:40 PM
In this case, with 166 wins and Coach K still coaching. It's a bit ridiculous.

oh, i'm not arguing that....You're correct....I'm simply pointing out the folly of using mercury morris to prove a point....

tommy
12-13-2010, 08:03 PM
oh, i'm not arguing that....You're correct....I'm simply pointing out the folly of using mercury morris to prove a point....

Why? Cuz he made a mistake or two 30 years ago and has completely turned his life around since then and been a model citizen in the community? What's the matter with that?

Jholt915
12-13-2010, 08:44 PM
I hope Capel continues on the winning path. I have no doubt that he will. I have a feeling he will have Oklahoma back in the national conversation soon. However, it is way to early to talk about him winning more games than K. K will likely win over 1000 games assuming he stays around, which he has given no reason for us to think he will not be.

Delaware
12-13-2010, 10:42 PM
With the caveat of "depending on how far out of reach Coach K puts the record".... I think Bill Self is a serious contender. He has shown the ability to recruit, is at an all-time top 5 program where he can get all kinds of talent (and can likely stay forever after his national title). The Big 12 conference is not good so he can rack up wins. He won 26 per year at Illinois and has won 30 per year at Kansas over the last 7 years. He looks fit, hungry and is a good in game coach. Coach K would be close to 1000 wins by the time he is 67. Self is at 418 wins and he is 48 years old... if he wins 30 per year for the next 19 years (he would also be 67 at that time), Self would be at 988. I know that is a long way to go, but of anyone coaching today, I think he has the best shot given his circumstance.

CEF1959
12-13-2010, 10:48 PM
I agree with others (including the Mercury Morris quote, which was apt regardless of what you think of MM) that it's just too early to speculate. Wake me up when someone has about 600 wins and a long career ahead. If he outlasts K, Jim Boeheim could be a current contender.

Along with all the other variables that can affect a career, the pros suck up their share of good coaches along the way too.

tommy
12-13-2010, 11:30 PM
IMHO it is really absurd to even be thinking about guys as young as Capel or Brad Stevens coming anywhere near a record like K is going to set. Sure, they're good young coaches. But over 30 years at Duke, K has averaged almost 27 wins per year, including the 9 win year in which he went out with a back injury. Averaged 27! Take out that 9 win outlier, and over the other 29 years he has averaged over 27.

In 8 years of coaching, Jeff Capel has had one year in which he won more than 27 games.

Already in this thread we've seen statements like "if he can average 30 wins per year . . ." Nobody averages 30 wins per year. K has won 30 games an astounding 11 times. Out of 34 years coaching. Jeff Capel, Brad Stevens and Bill Self won't be averaging 30 either. Sure, Stevens is almost at that level, but 3 years of head coaching is a very small sample size from which to project what he would have to do over 30+ years, not even counting all the other variables and unknowns.

The bar is going to be set unbelievably high by Coach K. I could much more easily see a coach like Boeheim coaching 5 years or so beyond K and topping him than I could one of these young coaches averaging the 25-30 wins per year for the next three decades that it would take them to do it.

Vincetaylor
12-14-2010, 12:15 AM
IMHO it is really absurd to even be thinking about guys as young as Capel or Brad Stevens coming anywhere near a record like K is going to set. Sure, they're good young coaches. But over 30 years at Duke, K has averaged almost 27 wins per year, including the 9 win year in which he went out with a back injury. Averaged 27! Take out that 9 win outlier, and over the other 29 years he has averaged over 27.

In 8 years of coaching, Jeff Capel has had one year in which he won more than 27 games.

Already in this thread we've seen statements like "if he can average 30 wins per year . . ." Nobody averages 30 wins per year. K has won 30 games an astounding 11 times. Out of 34 years coaching. Jeff Capel, Brad Stevens and Bill Self won't be averaging 30 either. Sure, Stevens is almost at that level, but 3 years of head coaching is a very small sample size from which to project what he would have to do over 30+ years, not even counting all the other variables and unknowns.

The bar is going to be set unbelievably high by Coach K. I could much more easily see a coach like Boeheim coaching 5 years or so beyond K and topping him than I could one of these young coaches averaging the 25-30 wins per year for the next three decades that it would take them to do it.


Agreed. Totally absurd. Capel would be lucky to finish within 400 wins of Coach K. He's hardly proven anything yet.

uh_no
12-14-2010, 01:54 AM
I don't know why I didn't get considered.....yeah I don't have any wins yet, but I'm only 21!

BD80
12-14-2010, 08:20 AM
I understand that JoPa will start coaching the Penn State basketball team in 2012, and will take a run at Coach K's records. The run of vampire TV shows, movies and book series will have conditioned the public to be more accepting by time he surpasses Coach K in 2063.

Hmmm. Maybe "The Mummy" would have been a more apt movie reference. Or "Weekend at Bernies."

brevity
12-14-2010, 08:54 AM
I understand that JoPa will start coaching the Penn State basketball team in 2012, and will take a run at Coach K's records.

Huh. I heard that Brett Favre is looking to break his own consecutive starts streak, starting next Monday.

I kind of understand the negativity in this thread, but this subject always interests me BECAUSE it shows respect to Coach K. It's very difficult to (1) start a head coaching career at an early age, (2) accumulate wins on a regular basis, and (3) sustain that level of success for a ridiculously long time as the hoops culture changes around you. Brad Stevens and Jeff Capel are being singled out because their situation is rare and unique. We're rooting for mathematical possibility, and not necessarily the person.

I wrote a really long breakdown of challengers in a previous thread:
http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?17756

The only thing I'd add now? I wonder if the model for a college coaching career will shift for the next generation. Is it so important for a young coach to wait until their 60s to retire? Maybe the Urban Meyer approach of starting early and leaving early becomes a trend.

SuperTurkey
12-14-2010, 09:00 AM
I wrote a really long breakdown of challengers in a previous thread:
http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?17756

FYI, the number at the top-right of each post is a link directly to that post. You can copy that link to send readers to the post in question (http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?17756-Coach-K-s-total-wins-and-challengers&p=329084#post329084).

brevity
12-14-2010, 09:07 AM
FYI, the number at the top-right of each post is a link directly to that post. You can copy that link to send readers to the post in question (http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?17756-Coach-K-s-total-wins-and-challengers&p=329084#post329084).

Appreciated and noted. I linked to the whole thread because I made a rare 2nd post later in that thread (which I guess makes the 2nd post here equally rare), and I wanted newcomers to see what others wrote as well.

JasonEvans
12-14-2010, 11:01 AM
Folks, I love Jeff Capel and consider him a fine young basketball coach...

...but am I the only person who thinks there is a decent chance he won't be coaching at Oklahoma for much longer?

He had a great 2009 -- Blake Griffin led the Sooners to the elite during the regular season and Jeff landed a great recruiting class with 2 Mickie Dees.

But the 2010 season was a disaster with Oklahoma going 13-18. He appeared to lose his team as they dropped 9 straight at the end of the year. In mid-January they were 11-6 with quality Big 12 wins over Okie St and Mizzu. They only won 2 more games the rest of the year. His 2010 recruiting class was not very good either with only one 4-star recruit.

Thus far, this season has been more of the (bad) same. OU is 5-5 so far. They best win is over Oral Roberts. They had a disastrous trip to Maui where they lose by double-digits to Kentucky and Virginia and then fell to Chaminade. They finished last in the Maui tournament. I wonder how the rich OU boosters who traveled with the team enjoyed that? His recruiting for 2011 is so far ok, but nothing special. It does not appear he is bringing in the game-changer kind of recruit who will put his program back into the top half of the Big 12.

I am not up on the climate among the OU fan base, but I would have to think that if Jeff is not on the hot seat, he is at least feeling his butt get a bit warm.

--Jason "I really want to be wrong-- I really want Jeff to turn it around!" Evans

SuperTurkey
12-14-2010, 11:42 AM
Thus far, this season has been more of the (bad) same. OU is 5-5 so far. They best win is over Oral Roberts. They had a disastrous trip to Maui where they lose by double-digits to Kentucky and Virginia and then fell to Chaminade. They finished last in the Maui tournament. I wonder how the rich OU boosters who traveled with the team enjoyed that? His recruiting for 2011 is so far ok, but nothing special. It does not appear he is bringing in the game-changer kind of recruit who will put his program back into the top half of the Big 12.

I am not up on the climate among the OU fan base, but I would have to think that if Jeff is not on the hot seat, he is at least feeling his butt get a bit warm.

Agreed, sadly. I assume that the temperature is more than a bit warm after the Chaminade debacle.

hurleyfor3
12-14-2010, 11:46 AM
I am not up on the climate among the OU fan base, but I would have to think that if Jeff is not on the hot seat, he is at least feeling his butt get a bit warm.


I wonder how much Aubrey McClendon is involved with the situation there, if at all.

It helps Capel that basketball is not the most important sport there, not even close.

UrinalCake
12-14-2010, 11:57 AM
Already in this thread we've seen statements like "if he can average 30 wins per year . . ." Nobody averages 30 wins per year. K has won 30 games an astounding 11 times. Out of 34 years coaching. Jeff Capel, Brad Stevens and Bill Self won't be averaging 30 either.

Agreed. I think the most you could really expect for of an out-of-this-world coach in an easy conference who plays in preseason tournaments and advances far into the postseason each year would be 27 wins. But even that is nearly impossible to sustain. A couple years ago all the hype was around Josh Pastner at Memphis, because he won a bunch of games in his first year. People extrapolated that out and thought he could catch K. And before that Jay Wright was receiving some attention as a guy who could do it because he had one or two good years. Having a couple good years is one thing, but doing it every year, through poor recruiting cycles, personal crises, bad luck, etc., is another matter entirely. Ultimately, what defines Coach K's legacy is being consistently successful over such a sustained period of time.

crimsonandblue
12-14-2010, 01:07 PM
With the caveat of "depending on how far out of reach Coach K puts the record".... I think Bill Self is a serious contender. He has shown the ability to recruit, is at an all-time top 5 program where he can get all kinds of talent (and can likely stay forever after his national title). The Big 12 conference is not good so he can rack up wins. He won 26 per year at Illinois and has won 30 per year at Kansas over the last 7 years. He looks fit, hungry and is a good in game coach. Coach K would be close to 1000 wins by the time he is 67. Self is at 418 wins and he is 48 years old... if he wins 30 per year for the next 19 years (he would also be 67 at that time), Self would be at 988. I know that is a long way to go, but of anyone coaching today, I think he has the best shot given his circumstance.

Chances of this are negligible. First, Self has indicated he's not a lifer. He's got plenty of money and I'd imagine he might do this for another 10 years or so, but that'd be about it. Second, the "weak" Big XII is about to be the Big XII-II, with the II being the two worst basketball schools (Colorado and Nebraska). The conference, which is 3rd in kenpom this year and was 2,4 and 1 over preceding three years (let's not talk 2006-2007), will be much more difficult as it shifts to a pure round robin with ten at least solid programs. Third, there will be hiccups in recruiting, injuries, etc.

Primarily, it will be about longevity. Secondarily, it's just really hard to do.