Charting Duke v. Bradley

[pfrduke]

Last night had a super 6 in plus-minus terms, and it's the 6 who, realistically, will be most responsible for leading the team while Kyrie is out (with the possible inclusion of Ryan Kelly). Really strong work by both Plumlees in the post, and, of course, Dre all day from outside.

Individuals
Mason Plumlee 61-29 (+32)
Kyle Singler 61-32 (+29)
Andre Dawkins 62-34 (+28)
Nolan Smith 61-34 (+27)
Miles Plumlee 50-23 (+27)
Seth Curry 54-28 (+26)
Josh Hairston 22-18 (+4)
Ryan Kelly 28-25 (+3)
Tyler Thornton 16-17 (-1)

Per 40 Minutes
Miles Plumlee +51.4
Mason Plumlee +47.4
Seth Curry +40.0
Kyle Singler +38.7
Andre Dawkins +36.1
Nolan Smith +36.0
Josh Hairston +14.5
Ryan Kelly +7.5
Tyler Thornton -5.0

Lineups (Score, times used, margin)
Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Mason-Miles (17-6, x3, +11)
Smith-Curry-Dawkins-Mason-Miles (8-0, x1, +8)
Smith-Curry-Singler-Mason-Miles (8-2, x1, +6)
Smith-Curry-Singler-Kelly-Miles (6-0, x1, +6)
Curry-Dawkins-Singler-Hairston-Mason (8-4, x1, +4)
Curry-Dawkins-Singler-Mason-Kelly (3-0, x1, +3)
Thornton-Curry-Dawkins-Hairston-Mason (7-5, x1, +2)
Smith-Curry-Dawkins-Singler-Kelly (3-1, x1, +2)
Smith-Curry-Dawkins-Singler-Miles (2-0, x1, +2)
Smith-Curry-Singler-Hairston-Mason (5-4, x1, +1)
Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Mason-Kelly (5-5, x2, 0)
Curry-Dawkins-Singler-Kelly-Miles (2-2, x2, 0)
Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Hairston-Kelly (0-0, x1, 0)
Smith-Curry-Singler-Hairston-Kelly (0-0, x1, 0)
Thornton-Smith-Dawkins-Hairston-Mason (0-0, x1, 0)
Smith-Curry-Dawkins-Singler-Mason (0-0, x2, 0)
Thornton-Curry-Singler-Hairston-Kelly (2-3, x1, -1)
Smith-Curry-Dawkins-Kelly-Miles (0-2, x1, -2)
Smith-Curry-Singler-Hairston-Miles (0-2, x1, -2)
Thornton-Smith-Dawkins-Kelly-Miles (7-9, x2, -2)
Smith-Curry-Singler-Mason-Kelly (0-3, x1, -3)

[Bob Green]

Perhaps I'm jumping the gun, but assuming Coach Krzyzewski sticks with the same starting line-up he used in the Bradley game, I expect those five to quickly shoot up to the top of the cumulative +/- chart:

Cumulative: Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Mason-Miles (33-17, x7, 16)
Bradley game: Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Mason-Miles (17-6, x3, +11)


Dawkins and Miles appear to complement each other, as has been discussed in a couple of other threads, so I expect this line-up to log major minutes for the duration of Irving's absence.

[COYS]

Perhaps I'm jumping the gun, but assuming Coach Krzyzewski sticks with the same starting line-up he used in the Bradley game, I expect those five to quickly shoot up to the top of the cumulative +/- chart:

Cumulative: Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Mason-Miles (33-17, x7, 16)
Bradley game: Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Mason-Miles (17-6, x3, +11)


Dawkins and Miles appear to complement each other, as has been discussed in a couple of other threads, so I expect this line-up to log major minutes for the duration of Irving's absence.

Excellent point as always, Bob. By my guess, this may also herald the start of a more deliberate style for Duke while we cross our fingers and await news on Kyrie. Using this lineup predominantly against Bradley, we slowed to 65 possessions. A Smith, Dawkins, Singler, Mason, Miles lineup seems more suited for half court play than transition basketball. Smith is really the only one out of that group who can apply consistent, extended pressure on the ball on the defensive side. However, that lineup is also pretty big and strong, with Dawkins a relatively thick college 2 and Singler (6-8), Mason (6-10), and Miles (6-10) an intimidating front line for opposing defenses.

The biggest weakness that jumps out at me when looking at the lineup is a lack of ball handlers to battle full court pressure. Dawkins is improving, but this is still an area of weakness for him. However, if this lineup proves it can handle full court pressure, I could see it quickly becoming our go-to lineup for tough games.

[Bob Green]

The biggest weakness that jumps out at me when looking at the lineup is a lack of ball handlers to battle full court pressure. Dawkins is improving, but this is still an area of weakness for him. However, if this lineup proves it can handle full court pressure, I could see it quickly becoming our go-to lineup for tough games.

Thanks!

I agree the press could give us some problems so it will be important for the team to attack the press with solid fundamentals. One of the first things young ball players are taught is to beat the press by passing over it not trying to dribble through it. I'm sure this point has already been driven home to the team ad naseum.

[superdave]

The biggest weakness that jumps out at me when looking at the lineup is a lack of ball handlers to battle full court pressure. Dawkins is improving, but this is still an area of weakness for him. However, if this lineup proves it can handle full court pressure, I could see it quickly becoming our go-to lineup for tough games.

I would expect Kyle to do more to assist with ball-handling and pressure than Andre. We'd have the inbounder (one of the two Plums) possibly setting a screen or being available to catch a pass, plus Kyle hanging around in the event of full court pressure. This worked well last year with Scheyer at the point. Remember how we worked Clemson over by slowing the game down, executing well and turned their pressure into mush (http://content.usatoday.com/sportsdata/basketball/ncaab/game/Duke_Clemson/2010/01/23)? What was Klemnop's comment? "Precision execution" I think.

[ACCBBallFan]

I would expect Kyle to do more to assist with ball-handling and pressure than Andre. We'd have the inbounder (one of the two Plums) possibly setting a screen or being available to catch a pass, plus Kyle hanging around in the event of full court pressure. This worked well last year with Scheyer at the point. Remember how we worked Clemson over by slowing the game down, executing well and turned their pressure into mush (http://content.usatoday.com/sportsdata/basketball/ncaab/game/Duke_Clemson/2010/01/23)? What was Klemnop's comment? "Precision execution" I think.Though their games are different, Miles and Mason have pretty much the same strengths and weaknesses.

Miles plays better in half court as was case vs. Bradley and Mason plays better in transition.

IMO, they do not pair particularly well since they clog up the middle for one another.

I wuld much prefer to see them alternate every 4 minutes and go all out last year, and have Kelly/Singler at PF to spread the floor more.

Though it might help Nolan's NBA stock if he plays decently at PG in Kyrie's absence, it is more likely to hurt his Offensive production.

Rather than weaken two posiitons, I would keep Nolan and SG and try and get some production out of Seth at PG and Tyler who is the only natural PG besides Irvng.

Since Dre is playing so well on both ends, that would presuppose Kyle at PF, Dawkins at WF, Nolan at SG and a Plumber as Bobby Knight refers to them at center.

The downside is losing the opportunity to get Josh more minutes, but a good time to see what Tyler can do with some more PT.

I suspect in practice Casey will now guard Kyle and Dre and Seth pair off.

So at beginning of game, Duke will probably start that lineup

Nolan - De - Kyle - one or both Plumbers and possibly Ryan

Tyler - Seth - Casey - Josh - Ryan or a Plumber would guard them in practice.

Once Duke subs,

Seth - Nolan - Dre - Kyle - a Plumber.

[ArnieMc]

Thanks!

I agree the press could give us some problems so it will be important for the team to attack the press with solid fundamentals. One of the first things young ball players are taught is to beat the press by passing over it not trying to dribble through it. I'm sure this point has already been driven home to the team ad naseum.Up the nose?

[NSDukeFan]

Thanks!

I agree the press could give us some problems so it will be important for the team to attack the press with solid fundamentals. One of the first things young ball players are taught is to beat the press by passing over it not trying to dribble through it. I'm sure this point has already been driven home to the team ad naseum.

Unless you are Kyrie, then you dare teams to press and laugh if they do. I don't envision this Duke team having that much difficulty with a press, as I think Kyle handles the ball pretty well, and Mason and Ryan are very good in the middle of the press as passers.

[CDu]

Rather than weaken two posiitons, I would keep Nolan and SG and try and get some production out of Seth at PG and Tyler who is the only natural PG besides Irvng.

I'm not sure I agree with this. I worry that playing Curry or Thornton as the primary PG would weaken us more than moving Smith to PG and going with Dawkins and Curry at SG. I don't think Thornton is up to the challenge of ACC play yet, and I don't see the PG skillset in Curry yet. Right now, I see more offensive similarities between Curry and Dawkins (minus the leaping ability) than Curry and Smith.

Now, if Curry can establish himself as a good playmaker, then maybe this can work. I'm sure we'll get to see Curry get a chance (Smith has to sit sometime, right?), but I'm not ready to go that route.

[pfrduke]

Unless you are Kyrie, then you dare teams to press and laugh if they do. I don't envision this Duke team having that much difficulty with a press, as I think Kyle handles the ball pretty well, and Mason and Ryan are very good in the middle of the press as passers.

Well, Kyrie had plenty of trouble trying to dribble through the press that Oregon threw at us. Nolan did as well. Dribbling through certain presses (1-2-1-1, especially) is just a bad idea, regardless of who's doing it.

[CDu]

Well, Kyrie had plenty of trouble trying to dribble through the press that Oregon threw at us. Nolan did as well. Dribbling through certain presses (1-2-1-1, especially) is just a bad idea, regardless of who's doing it.

I don't remember Irving having so much trouble with the Oregon press (could certainly be wrong here), but I definitely remember Smith having trouble with the press. Though ironically I think I remember Smith making his mistakes by making bad decisions with passing (i.e., throwing wild passes well out of the reach of the defenders.

But generally speaking, I agree. Unless you're just on another level as a ballhandler (see Kenny Anderson, Bobby Hurley), breaking a press with the dribble is a bad idea.

[pfrduke]

I don't remember Irving having so much trouble with the Oregon press (could certainly be wrong here), but I definitely remember Smith having trouble with the press. Though ironically I think I remember Smith making his mistakes by making bad decisions with passing (i.e., throwing wild passes well out of the reach of the defenders.

But generally speaking, I agree. Unless you're just on another level as a ballhandler (see Kenny Anderson, Bobby Hurley), breaking a press with the dribble is a bad idea.

It may just be selection bias, but I distinctly remember Irving committing at least two turnovers as a result of overdribbling against that press.

And yes, Nolan did have a worse time of it. It wasn't a banner day for our press-breaking performance (although thankfully it was against a team that couldn't really hurt us when we did turn it over).

[CDu]

It may just be selection bias, but I distinctly remember Irving committing at least two turnovers as a result of overdribbling against that press.

And yes, Nolan did have a worse time of it. It wasn't a banner day for our press-breaking performance (although thankfully it was against a team that couldn't really hurt us when we did turn it over).

Yeah, I definitely could be suffering from recall bias with regard to Irving as well. I completely agree that the press-breaking efforts were less than stellar that day.

I think we're more likely to see a press without Irving, if nothing else because I think teams will be a bit less afraid to play an uptempo game against us without Irving. But also because Irving was more equipped as a press breaker than Curry and Smith.

Hopefully, we'll do better against any presses in the future.

[Bob Green]

Up the nose?

It should have been: ad nauseam.

[ArnieMc]

It should have been: ad nauseam.For some reason, ad naseum just cracked me up, and I really needed a good laugh. Thanks.

[tele]

It will be interesting to see how Coach K realigns things after Irvings injury. Hopefully Kyrie will return soon and this period can be a time to strengthen the time overall and individually.

One of things that struck me about the charted lineups is just how many of them Coach K used, and that he didn't use any of them more than 2 times. Guess that is somewhat to be expected in a blowout, when lots of players get playing time, but still showing a lot of combinations and versatility.

One other possibly telling stat that comes through, is that in all these various combinations and lineups, Singler, Smith and Curry appear in the same number of different lineups, all but five. Dawkins appears in a couple less. May not mean much in the long run, or might be an indication that Curry will be sharing more of the point guard duties with Nolan.

Dawkins will be getting more minutes too, of course, due to the injury. Dawkins also gets added minutes by providing back up depth for the bigs. When one of the Bigs has foul trouble and Kyle moves to the 4, Dawkins then plays kyles 3 spot.

It will be interesting to watch how
Coach K adjusts things and how the players respond and develop their games.

On handling the press, won't mason likely be used to bring it across mid court?

These circumstances make me appreciate Nolan Smith even more.

[Bob Green]

For some reason, ad naseum just cracked me up, and I really needed a good laugh. Thanks.

I'm glad I could accommodate you. :cool: I was just commenting this morning that sometimes I'm funny but it is always by accident.