The possibility of going undefeated

[nvr1983]

I've posted on here a few times and have generally gotten a good response so I was curious as to your thoughts on a new column on our site. Given some of the talk by the media about this Duke team going undefeated one of the editors decided to take a look at arguments for/against Duke going undefeated by looking at the team, their opponents, and what the numbers (KenPom, etc) say. We have already had a few comments from fans on both sides so I was curious as to what you thought about it.

Link = http://rushthecourt.net/2010/12/08/the-cases-for-against-a-duke-unbeaten-season/

[FireOgilvie]

You probably want to add "Kyrie Irving out indefinitely" to your list of reasons why it's probably not going to happen.

[nvr1983]

You probably want to add "Kyrie Irving out indefinitely" to your list of reasons why it's probably not going to happen.

Yeah. Unfortunately that news came out after we had published the column. That certainly will make it much more challenging although if it is only until the start of ACC play they could still pull it off especially given how deep they are at guard.

[rotogod00]

This new ESPN insider article from Ken Pomeroy gives Duke a 4% chance of going undefeated. His system gives them a 16% chance of making it to the end of the conference season undefeated. Then, he "generously" gives them an 85% chance of winning the ACC tournament and a 30% chance of winning the NCAA tournament (noting that Ohio St. and Kansas are both "pretty good squads as well").

http://insider.espn.go.com/ncb/insider/news/story?page=/KenPomOnDukeUndefeated

Has our biggest test being at Maryland (2/2) with "only" a 67% of winning. Only other games below 80% are at Va Tech (76%) and at UNC (73%)

[OldPhiKap]

We take everyone's best shot, at home and on the road.

Think about the level of intensity you would have to spend every game, almost every possession, to pull off an undefeated season.

I am never going to bet against us, but I cannot possibly see an undefeated season.

I'm just hoping for being undefeated in April.

[hurley1]

Everybody has a bad night, sooner or later. I just hope it comes before April.

[rasputin]

Everybody has a bad night, sooner or later. I just hope it comes before April.

For now, I want to be undefeated tomorrow.

[camion]

For now, I want to be undefeated tomorrow.

I'm nervous about this one. FSU is not a fun place to play and we have had a number of sub-par games there.

[jipops]

If we're doing oddsmakers "PTI" style - then I say 0% chance. Not only do we have road games looming vs. UNC and Maryland, I just have a hard time seeing us going undefeated at home for two years straight. And though the ACC sched is generally light this year, I do feel like at least one loss is coming during the regular season to a team that does not include Maryland or UNC. Remember 2002 at FSU?

[J_C_Steel]

If we're doing oddsmakers "PTI" style - then I say 0% chance. Not only do we have road games looming vs. UNC and Maryland, I just have a hard time seeing us going undefeated at home for two years straight. And though the ACC sched is generally light this year, I do feel like at least one loss is coming during the regular season to a team that does not include Maryland or UNC. Remember 2002 at FSU?

There's an ESPN Insider article by Pomeroy putting Duke's chances of going undefeated this season at 4%. If you have such access, here's the link:

http://insider.espn.go.com/ncb/insider/news/story?page=/KenPomOnDukeUndefeated

The teams with the best chances to go undefeated over the last 30 years are the 1990-91 UNLV Runnin' Rebels (we all know how that ended) at 50%, 2007-08 Memphis Tigers at 7%, 1986-87 UNLV Runnin' Rebels at 7%, and 2003-04 St. Joseph's Hawks at 5%.

[yancem]

Irving is the X factor. With him I think that Duke would be an extremely difficult win for any the teams remaining on the regular season schedule. Of course once the tourney comes around its roll the dice. It's too hard to say until you see the matchups.

Irving increases the number of great scorers from 2 to 3 and reduces pressure on Dawkins, Curry and the Plumlee to have to score. There will be times when both Smith and Singler will struggle offensively but it's not very likely that all three of Smith, Singler and Irving would be off simultaneously. So Duke would always have at least one great scorer scoring. Plus even when they are having off nights, great scorers still have to be guarded. So having three great scorers on the floor puts a lot of pressure on a defense and opens up opportunities for the their teammates.

If Irving is unable to return or returns at less than his pre-injury self then there are definitely a couple of teams left on the schedule that could catch Duke on an off night. Therefore, I think the prospects of an undefeated regular season is highly unlikely. Personally, tonight's game and the away games against unc, MD and State have me a little worried.

[Duvall]

If we're doing oddsmakers "PTI" style - then I say 0% chance. Not only do we have road games looming vs. UNC and Maryland, I just have a hard time seeing us going undefeated at home for two years straight.

Worth noting that Duke's only home losses in 3.5 seasons have come to a couple of Final Four-bound UNC teams, and no one on Duke's remaining home schedule for 2011 is nearly that formidable.

[Indoor66]

For now, I want to be undefeated tomorrow.

I am a little like you. I only wish to win one game, always the next one.

[NSDukeFan]

If we're doing oddsmakers "PTI" style - then I say 0% chance. Not only do we have road games looming vs. UNC and Maryland, I just have a hard time seeing us going undefeated at home for two years straight. And though the ACC sched is generally light this year, I do feel like at least one loss is coming during the regular season to a team that does not include Maryland or UNC. Remember 2002 at FSU?

Fortunately, to go undefeated at home this year, we don't have to win two years straight worth of games, just this year's. What happened last year shouldn't affect our chances this year. I agree that going undefeated in the conference regular season this year is very unlikely, let alone the ACC and NCAA tournaments.

[gus]

If we're doing oddsmakers "PTI" style - then I say 0% chance. Not only do we have road games looming vs. UNC and Maryland, I just have a hard time seeing us going undefeated at home for two years straight. And though the ACC sched is generally light this year, I do feel like at least one loss is coming during the regular season to a team that does not include Maryland or UNC. Remember 2002 at FSU?

We don't have to go undefeated for two straight years now. we already have 1 1/3 taken care of. We only have 7 home games left.

While I still think an undefeated season at home is unlikely (but much greater than zero; i'd put it at 20%), the farther we go into the season, it becomes more likely, not less.

[4decadedukie]

For now, I want to be undefeated tomorrow.

WISDOM; I wholeheartedly agree.

[J_C_Steel]

While I still think an undefeated season at home is unlikely (but much greater than zero; i'd put it at 20%), the farther we go into the season, it becomes more likely, not less.

Why would an undefeated season at home be unlikely? It seems pretty likely to me. Duke is a VERY difficult team to beat in Cameron, and the team already defeated one of its toughest in-conference tests (Maryland) in the friendly confines. In my view, there are only two or three difficult home games remaining for the Blue Devils.

It's the road games that will likely trip up this Duke squad. And there's nothing wrong with a couple of road losses in the ACC. It won't keep Duke from a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament.

[gus]

Why would an undefeated season at home be unlikely? It seems pretty likely to me. Duke is a VERY difficult team to beat in Cameron, and the team already defeated one of its toughest in-conference tests (Maryland) in the friendly confines. In my view, there are only two or three difficult home games remaining for the Blue Devils.

It's the road games that will likely trip up this Duke squad. And there's nothing wrong with a couple of road losses in the ACC. It won't keep Duke from a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament.

I may have been a little conservative- 25% might have been a better guess. I came up with the percentage by guessing at the win probability of each of our remaining games and doing the math. I had UNC as my least likely win at 75%. Increasing that to 80%, and rounding to the closest 5%, I come up with a 25% chance of winning them all.

Kenpom is much less conservative (if i'm reading the page correctly). He's predicting ~75% chance of going undefeated at home:

http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Duke

[GODUKEGO]

A posibility but very very small. The rankings are current for the week of Jan. 10th. I think at State, VT (#44), FSU, UNC (#34) and even in NYC with Saint Johns (#39) could all be tough games. In Cameron, where over the last two and a half season, we are 43-1 with that one lost to UNC the year they won the National Championship, we have tough games versus UNC and State and our highest ranked opponent Temple (#19). My prediction: another National Championship with a final record of 37-3, winning the ACC Championship for three in a row and ten out of the last thirteen. Almost forgot Kyrie coming back February 20th at home versus GT. Say my prayers/say my prayers/say my prayers!!!!

[cakerace]

...but can I humbly wish for just one more win on a Monday this season??? And I don't even care who the opponent is...

[Wander]

I may have been a little conservative- 25% might have been a better guess. I came up with the percentage by guessing at the win probability of each of our remaining games and doing the math. I had UNC as my least likely win at 75%. Increasing that to 80%, and rounding to the closest 5%, I come up with a 25% chance of winning them all.

I think you're underestimating home court advantage in college basketball. It's not that rare to have a team go undefeated at home - my guess (which I have no numbers to back up) is that a given season has about 5 teams that never lose a home game on average. It's realistic enough that I know Duke teams have explicitly had it as a stated goal for the season, and I think it's more likely than not that it's accomplished again this year.

Last year the following teams all went undefeated at home: Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, Butler, Xavier, Murray State, and Siena.

[gus]

I think you're underestimating home court advantage in college basketball. It's not that rare to have a team go undefeated at home - my guess (which I have no numbers to back up) is that a given season has about 5 teams that never lose a home game on average. It's realistic enough that I know Duke teams have explicitly had it as a stated goal for the season, and I think it's more likely than not that it's accomplished again this year.

Last year the following teams all went undefeated at home: Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, Butler, Xavier, Murray State, and Siena.

I acknowledged that I'm being conservative, but even if you assume duke has an 85% chance of winning each game, the odds of going undefeated for those 7 games is 32%.

Here are my (compared to kenpom's) percentages. Mine are just guesses, but here's how it plays out:


Game Ken Gus
UVA 99.0% 95.0%
BC 96.0% 80.0%
NCS 98.0% 80.0%
UNC 91.0% 75.0%
GT 98.0% 85.0%
TU 94.0% 80.0%
CU 96.0% 85.0%
75.0% 26.4%

[JasonEvans]

I acknowledged that I'm being conservative, but even if you assume duke has an 85% chance of winning each game, the odds of going undefeated for those 7 games is 32%.

Here are my (compared to kenpom's) percentages. Mine are just guesses, but here's how it plays out:


Game Ken Gus
UVA 99.0% 95.0%
BC 96.0% 80.0%
NCS 98.0% 80.0%
UNC 91.0% 75.0%
GT 98.0% 85.0%
TU 94.0% 80.0%
CU 96.0% 85.0%
75.0% 26.4%


You are being waaay too conservative, IMO. If you think Duke would only win 4 out of 5 times against BC in Cameron then you hold us in much lower esteem than I do. While I am not sure I would go with Pom's 98% kinda picks, that's winning 49 out of 50 which seems really tough, I think the odds in more of these games are more like in the 90-95% range than the 80-85% range. That makes a biig difference in your numbers.

-Jason "I would give Duke about a 2 in 3 chance of going unbeaten at home this year -- 66%" Evans

[oldnavy]

You are being waaay too conservative, IMO. If you think Duke would only win 4 out of 5 times against BC in Cameron then you hold us in much lower esteem than I do. While I am not sure I would go with Pom's 98% kinda picks, that's winning 49 out of 50 which seems really tough, I think the odds in more of these games are more like in the 90-95% range than the 80-85% range. That makes a biig difference in your numbers.

-Jason "I would give Duke about a 2 in 3 chance of going unbeaten at home this year -- 66%" Evans

Maybe we can close this thread now??

[Lord Ash]

Or change the title to add "... in Cameron?"

:)

[DeBlueDevil]

I've posted on here a few times and have generally gotten a good response so I was curious as to your thoughts on a new column on our site. Given some of the talk by the media about this Duke team going undefeated one of the editors decided to take a look at arguments for/against Duke going undefeated by looking at the team, their opponents, and what the numbers (KenPom, etc) say. We have already had a few comments from fans on both sides so I was curious as to what you thought about it.

Link = http://rushthecourt.net/2010/12/08/the-cases-for-against-a-duke-unbeaten-season/

We were doing just fine and then someone had to create a thread about the undefeated season. Thanks a lot!!!! jk

[PADukeMom]

This is what happens when you start a thread like this. You anger the Wood GODS. NC State isn't going to be a cake walk either.
I did mention to someone yesterday morning that I can very well see us losing 2 out of the next 3 games we play.

[gus]

-Jason "I would give Duke about a 2 in 3 chance of going unbeaten at home this year -- 66%" Evans

Let's split the difference. We'll probably not know who's right. Even with my conservative estimates, Duke's chances of losing more than 1 are 1 in 3.

My point was that even though Duke will be favored in every regular season game, going undefeated is very difficult and unlikely. As last night showed.

[davekay1971]

We were doing just fine and then someone had to create a thread about the undefeated season. Thanks a lot!!!! jk

And I sacrificed a live chicken for nothing. Last time I pray to Chobu. Lock this thread, burn it, and bury the ashes in Krzyzewskiville.

[OldPhiKap]

^ I was going to start a thread on the possibility of us going onedefeated, but you've talked me out of it.

[SharkD]

We were doing just fine and then someone had to create a thread about the undefeated season. Thanks a lot!!!! jk


And I sacrificed a live chicken for nothing. Last time I pray to Chobu. Lock this thread, burn it, and bury the ashes in Krzyzewskiville.

1814
This thread turned me into a Dorset sheep!

...I got better.

But let's burn it anyway!

[sagegrouse]

This thread could still have residual value if the ever-vigilant mods would change the title to: The Possibility of Going Undefeated From Now. :rolleyes:

That way, even if we lost every game, it would not be obsolete. :eek:

sagegrouse

[awich1]

the only good thing about the loss to fsu is that maybe we can bid farewell to this thread forever. the possibility of going undefeated with kyrie was close to nil and without him was zero. unfortunately, our lack of an inside game was really exposed last night and will be an ongoing issue.

[brevity]

Aside from basic issues of tempting fate, I had no problems with this thread. Why shouldn't fans of a returning champion -- shades of 1992 -- talk about aspirations beyond duplicating the feat? Is there some sort of limit to wishful thinking?

For those in the gloom and doom camp, congratulations. You proved the rest of us wrong.

R.I.P., Jinx-Approaching but Not Overly Cocky Thread.

[jipops]

For those in the gloom and doom camp, congratulations. You proved the rest of us wrong.

R.I.P., Jinx-Approaching but Not Overly Cocky Thread.

I don't think those of us who were saying there was no chance of an undefeated season are "gloom and doom". Thinking about the possibility/likelihood of losing a few games while making a great run in the tournament is hardly being negative, more like realistic.

[throatybeard]

In typical DBR bulletin board myopia, people have ignored the fact that it is still possible for a Duke team to go undefeated in basketball:

http://espn.go.com/womens-college-basketball/team/_/id/150/duke-blue-devils

Although I wouldn't bet on beating UConn and sweeping UNC.

[tele]

Aside from basic issues of tempting fate, I had no problems with this thread. Why shouldn't fans of a returning champion -- shades of 1992 -- talk about aspirations beyond duplicating the feat? Is there some sort of limit to wishful thinking?

For those in the gloom and doom camp, congratulations. You proved the rest of us wrong.

R.I.P., Jinx-Approaching but Not Overly Cocky Thread.

CHORUS:
For auld sanguine, my dear,
for auld sanguine,
we'll take a cup of kindness yet,
for auld sanguine