This Week in the ACC: 12/6-12/12

[pfrduke]

Since yesterday was an off-day for all ACC teams, I'm giving myself a pass on not getting this up until this morning. Despite the ACC-Big 10 challenge loss (thank you, Virginia Tech), it was a solid week for the ACC that featured some strong upsets (Minnesota, Kentucky), two big wins for the top team (Michigan St., Butler), some key wins over similarly situated major conference opponents (Mississippi, West Virginia, Iowa), and a couple strong showings in losses (Syracuse, Temple). This week offers much lighter fare, with just three top-100 OOC opponents, none of which are in the top 50, before the second and third conference games of the season end the week in a Sunday night doubleheader. Avoiding bad losses will be the theme of the week.

Monday was dark.

Tuesday features an in-state rivalry game that almost no one outside of Georgia (and probably many people in Georgia) is likely to notice.

[86]Georgia Tech hosts [93]Georgia
[81]Virginia hosts [333]Radford

Wednesday features the annual BC-Providence matchup, which has produced some decent games in recent years. Also, UNC travels to Evansville to take on an Aces team that nipped Butler in overtime, and Maryland hosts UNC-G in as the Spartans continue their quest to lose to as many teams in the ACC as possible.

[2]Duke hosts [138]Bradley
[28]North Carolina at [161]Evansville
[34]Boston College hosts [64]Providence
[27]Maryland hosts [315]UNC-Greensboro

Thursday and Friday are conference-wide off days.

Saturday gives four teams a chance for some pre- (or post-) finals week exercise in what should all be comfortable wins for the home squads.

[2]Duke hosts vs. [103]St. Louis
[70]NC State hosts [311]USC-Upstate
[86]Georgia Tech hosts [309]Savannah State
[28]North Carolina hosts [114]Long Beach State

Sunday has a couple key conference matchups that feature (according to Pomeroy) four of the top six teams in the conference with Maryland hosting BC and FSU hosting Clemson. These are both games that the home team should win. The Clemson-FSU game looks to be a turnover-filled, low-scoring affair - both teams force and commit turnovers on at least 22% of their possessions. And BC looks to continue some of their early season surprise with an upset win in the Comcast Center.

[27]Maryland hosts [34]Boston College
[31]Florida State hosts [44]Clemson
[50]Virginia Tech hosts [60]Penn State
[132]Wake Forest at [255]UNC-Wilmington
[54]Miami hosts [275]Stetson

ACC Non-Conference Record: 63-30
Record vs. BCS: 16-20
AEC: 3-0
A-10: 1-1
A-Sun: 7-2
Big 10: 5-9
Big 12: 4-1
Big East: 3-5
Big South: 3-1
Big West: 2-0
Colonial: 3-2
CUSA: 2-1
Horizon: 1-0
Ind: 2-0
Ivy: 1-1
MAAC: 2-0
MAC: 1-0
MEAC: 3-0
MVC: 0-1
MWC: 0-1
NEC: 2-0
OVC: 1-0
Pac-10: 2-2
Patriot: 3-0
SEC: 2-3
Southern: 8-0
Southland: 1-0
Sun Belt: 1-0

[Olympic Fan]

It's a bit early for RPI, but there have been enough conference games to make conference RPI at least somewhat relevant.

As of Tuesday morning, the ACC shows up surprisingly well --

1. Big East (99-20) .6032
2. ACC (63-30) .5906
3. Big Ten (66-16) .5854
4. Big 12 (70-21) .5685
5. Mountain West (48-12) .5561
6. SEC (59-22) .5532
(then Pac 10 ranks ninth)

Hw can the ACC rank so high with such a mediocre non-conference W-L record?

It comes down to strength of scedule. The ACC's SOS is .5616 -- far ahead of everybody else (the Big East is second at .5269.

[gam7]

[28]North Carolina at [161]Evansville


Wasn't it Evansville that wore those funny-looking, non-tanktop shirt-jerseys? Do they still wear those?

[Bob Green]

Wasn't it Evansville that wore those funny-looking, non-tanktop shirt-jerseys? Do they still wear those?

Their uniforms look pretty normal to me:

http://gopurpleaces.com/images/2010/11/17/rp_primary_TaylorHopf520.jpg

[Duvall]

Wasn't it Evansville that wore those funny-looking, non-tanktop shirt-jerseys? Do they still wear those?

It was, but they don't wear them any more (http://www.dailyorange.com/2.8655/much-to-players-8217-delight-evansville-leaves-sleeves-1.1250033).

[Newton_14]

It's a bit early for RPI, but there have been enough conference games to make conference RPI at least somewhat relevant.

As of Tuesday morning, the ACC shows up surprisingly well --

1. Big East (99-20) .6032
2. ACC (63-30) .5906
3. Big Ten (66-16) .5854
4. Big 12 (70-21) .5685
5. Mountain West (48-12) .5561
6. SEC (59-22) .5532
(then Pac 10 ranks ninth)

Hw can the ACC rank so high with such a mediocre non-conference W-L record?

It comes down to strength of scedule. The ACC's SOS is .5616 -- far ahead of everybody else (the Big East is second at .5269.

Even with SOS, both our BCS and overall record is bad. There are a few ACC teams that have a chance to get better so maybe we can get 5 teams to play their way into the Dance. Going to be difficult though.

[ice-9]

It's a bit early for RPI, but there have been enough conference games to make conference RPI at least somewhat relevant.

As of Tuesday morning, the ACC shows up surprisingly well --

1. Big East (99-20) .6032
2. ACC (63-30) .5906
3. Big Ten (66-16) .5854
4. Big 12 (70-21) .5685
5. Mountain West (48-12) .5561
6. SEC (59-22) .5532
(then Pac 10 ranks ninth)

Hw can the ACC rank so high with such a mediocre non-conference W-L record?

It comes down to strength of scedule. The ACC's SOS is .5616 -- far ahead of everybody else (the Big East is second at .5269.


We pull up the average! ;)

[DukieInBrasil]

So far the positive surprise of the ACC has to be Virginia, who may end up ranked when the new poll comes out. Picked to be one of the weaklings of the league this year, UVa has already picked up two wins over one currently ranked team (Minn.) and VT, who was ranked earlier this year. They don't have any "bad" losses, losing @ Johnny D's Stanford, to #11 Washington and Wichita, who might end up in the Dance. It is a bit early to starting tooting the horn, but it appears they are getting quite a bit out of what was perceived to be limited potential. Good coaching will do that.
Like Duke, they won't play again for a little while, but I'm interested to see if they can keep it up, as they, unlike much of the league, have not been a disappointment. By that I mean they don't have any embarrassing losses.
MD also has no embarrassing losses, but I'm not sure that MD's 7-3 record includes any wins that deserve enough praise to put them in the top 25.
BC has run off 4 strait wins, but an embarrassing loss to Yale tarnishes their record a bit, though losing to Wisconsin is no embarrassment.
FSU has lost 2 games to really good teams, but has beaten nobody of consequence.
Miami also lost 1 game to a good team and also to Rutgers, who has a solid record. Miami has beaten nobody of consequence outside of WVU, who is certainly not of the same caliber as last year.

[DukieInBrasil]

UNC finally revved up there offense, but giving up 91 to a thoroughly mediocre LBSU team? Wow. I really don't see how they can finish in the upper half of the ACC if they continue to play like that.
2 positives for them in the game: LD II finally had a game where he didn't totally suck and HB finally had a game where he was a net positive, a 2x-double is pretty good. Granted LBSU sucks, so both of those accomplishments should be tempered, but I'm sure Carowhina fans will take any positive they can get right now.
GO DUKE!!! and GTHC!!!

[sagegrouse]

Well, it was an away game. But UNC-W is now only 2-31 against the ACC (18 yrs. ago it beat State). UNC-W is now 4-4 for the season, while Wake drops to 5-4.

BTW, Md-BC is a barn-burner with BC narrowly ahead in the last minute. (BC won by four.)

sagegrouse

[ice-9]

Steve Donahue must have the early lead on ACC coach of the year. His BC team just defeated Maryland at Maryland and looks like an NCAA tournament team despite the early season loss at Yale, which now looks like an aberration / teaching moment (http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/story/14378764/new-bc-coach-donahue-alters-lesson-plan-after-yale-loss) than anything else.

They are favored over the next seven games and can be 15-2 by the time January 15 rolls around when they travel to Miami. That record can receive votes for the top 25 with their only other loss a respectable one to Wisconsin and a 12 game winning streak.

KenPom has BC favored to win all of their remaining home games. Their only projected losses are away to Miami, Florida St, Duke, Clemson, UNC and Virginia Tech. If they can break even over that stretch and go 3-3, they would end up with a solid overall record of 23-7 and surely make it into the tournament.

[sagegrouse]

Not worth a thread as yet, but several coaches are on the hot seat -- to perform or to be asked to leave.


Seth Greenberg is the biggest surprise. He has just about everyone returning, yet has stumbled out of the gate. Is this a team whose players are looking beyond VT? Seth, ya gotta coach 'em up and make 'em into a team. Another unimpressive season and NCAA miss could be curtains for Seth. Too bad, because I enjoyed the jarring atonalities between his New York personality and the laid-folks in Blacksburg. The killer, the real killer, is that he didn't offer scholarships to either Stephen or Seth Curry, sons of the greatest Hokie of them all. Other programs didn't either, but it hurts much worse in Hokie-land.

El Cid really has to deliver, and he has the talent now where the excuses run pretty dry. While VT has always been a wannabe in hoops, State has a considerable pedigree, going back to the Gray Fox, Everett Case. Fans want a winner -- now -- and especially with hated UNC in the doldrums.

Paul Hewitt has proven one thing -- how important it is to get to the Final Four. His 2004 trip to San Antonio got him an evergreen contract that Tech, so far, has been unwilling to sever. I expect this is it for Sir Paul, barring a miracle of a season.

Bzdelik may yet crash and burn before he completes 12 months in the job. Wake is the worst ACC team I can ever remember. Losing by 12 at UNC-W today? Losing at home to Stetson, VCU, and Winthrop? Those were even worse. Normally a coach gets 3-4 years to prove himself -- but I don't know here. If he leaves, AD Ron Wellman may well precede him. Dino was unexciting but hardly a disaster.

Newcomers Tony Bennett, Steve Donahue, and Brad Brownell are doing just fine. One of those coaches and schools is gonna be in the top tier of the ACC.

Haith and Hamilton are around for quite awhile, I think. Miami shows real spunk at times, and Leonard's Seminoles play very tough defense, which -- I may have heard somewhere -- wins games.

HOF now and in the future: K and the Williamses will be there as long as they want, and in K's case, I am hoping for another decade.
sagegrouse
'The NY Times headline today read: "If Bill Clinton Was President" (Week in Review, page 1). Does this mean the English subjunctive is officially dead? Gawd, I hope not. "Were," guys, "Were."'

[rogermortimer]

sage - I just watched Wake play UNCW. I think they are the worst ACC team in the last decade. In fact, they are the worst that I can ever remember seeing.

[Duvall]

sage - I just watched Wake play UNCW. I think they are the worst ACC team in the last decade. In fact, they are the worst that I can ever remember seeing.

How soon we forget the glorious winter of 8-20.

[Olympic Fan]

Well, it was an away game. But UNC-W is now only 2-31 against the ACC (18 yrs. ago it beat State). UNC-W is now 4-4 for the season, while Wake drops to 5-4.

sagegrouse

Just to be precise, while the Wake Wilmington game was technically a road game for the Deacs, it was played in the Greensboro Coliseum -- a lot closer to Wake than to UNCW. I suspect the crowd (what little crowd there was) was in their favor too.

That's just a way off adding to what a sad spectacle the 2010-11 Deacs are.

[JasonEvans]

Pomeroy has Wake favored in onyl 3 of their remaining games -- home games with UNC-G (95%), Presbyterian (89%), and High Point (86%). They have several home games where they are only about a 10-15% chance to win. Absurdly bad numbers.

Pom projects Wake to go 11-20. They currently have 5 wins. I sure hope they go winless in the ACC because any win they get is a stain on the team that lost.

-Jason "I don't completely blame Bzezebzezdzezic for this, but he sure ain't doing a good job either" Evans

[devildeac]

sage - I just watched Wake play UNCW. I think they are the worst ACC team in the last decade. In fact, they are the worst that I can ever remember seeing.

I might just change my screen name to devil**** for the next several months:o.

[rogermortimer]

Look - I didn't offer this opinion in a capricious spirit. But heck, there is no way around it - Wake is really suffering and the losses to low mid-major teams reflect just how bad it is.

I like Wake, I like their academics, and I think they treat their student athletes by and large very well. But even with the unfortunate recent tragedy of Skip Prosser in their midst, they shouldn't be anywhere near this futile. And as regards their coach, I don't like what I see. They may be limited in talent, but they mentally folded against UNC-W -a very troubling sight to see. And while the coach apparently had limited talent at Colorado - he had a very mediocre record, too. Not a good omen for the future.

My intuition is that this starts at the top. AD's get measured on how well they do in the revenue sports of men's basketball and football. He has to be feeling the heat.

[sagegrouse]

Pomeroy has Wake favored in onyl 3 of their remaining games -- home games with UNC-G (95%), Presbyterian (89%), and High Point (86%). They have several home games where they are only about a 10-15% chance to win. Absurdly bad numbers.

Pom projects Wake to go 11-20. They currently have 5 wins. I sure hope they go winless in the ACC because any win they get is a stain on the team that lost.

-Jason "I don't completely blame Bzezebzezdzezic for this, but he sure ain't doing a good job either" Evans

I just read Barry Jacobs' writeup of the WF-UNCW game referenced on the front page. I had assumed that is was fairly close and that UNCW pulled away at the end on FTs. NOT! UNCW had a 21-point lead with 1:30 to go and Wake made some shots to narrow the score. Down 21 points to the Seahawks, which had a losing record at the time?

Ya reckon Bzdelik misses Colorado where he had some measure of success with Air Force, the Nuggets, and CU?

sagegrouse