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Kedsy
12-06-2010, 12:22 PM
Duke has finished Phase I of the season undefeated and looking like the best team in the country. Now we enter Phase II, a stretch of four home games against significantly weaker competition than we’ve played over the past two weeks, although it’s also a period where the distractions of exams and the holidays have in the past made our team look less than sharp.

Barring catastrophe, the game outcomes in this phase (Bradley, St. Louis, Elon, and UNCG) are unlikely to be in doubt at anytime past the first few minutes, and therefore many of the questions we have about the team are simply not going to come up. For example, I’d be shocked if we have a chance to see how our young team will fare in tense late game situations, or who steps up as a leader when we really need it. I doubt we’ll discover whether Andre Dawkins can continue his surprisingly high level of defensive play against larger small forwards such as those on many ACC teams this season. We won’t find out whether Kyrie Irving can blast through the freshman wall (or will even encounter it) or whether Mason Plumlee has truly broken out.

But there should be a lot of fun things to watch in this next stretch of games anyway. Here’s what I’m going to be looking for:

(1) Will Duke stay healthy?

In just eight games so far, we’ve seen Kyrie come up limping twice and Mason twist an ankle. This is the deepest Duke team we’ve had in a long time, so we should be able to weather almost any situation (at least for a few games) but any major injury has the potential to slow our team growth, and for such a young team that would be a concern.

I’m looking for Phase II to be a time where we can heal our bumps and bruises and come out roaring for the ACC season.

(2) Will we cut down on the turnovers, and does it really matter?

So far this season we’re averaging 16.5 turnovers per game, a 45% increase over last year’s 11.4 tpg. It has been a hot topic in almost every post-game discussion, with some posters stating we’ll be in trouble against better teams if we continue to be so sloppy with the ball.

But is that really true? According to Pomeroy, we have the best adjusted offensive efficiency in the nation (121.8). So it’s hard to argue our current turnover rate is hurting our offensive efficiency to any great extent. That said, several turnovers in each game have appeared to be preventable with just a little more care, and I’ll be looking for that during this phase.

(3) How well will we diversify our offense?

In Phase I our offense came from all four major food groups. We scored in transition on the fast break, on three-point baskets, on dribble-drives, and on passes to our big men (although this latter category was almost exclusively to Mason Plumlee). However, other than the transition points there are questions about each category.

We currently have the 13th best 3-point shooting percentage in the country, and I doubt any team has as many deep threats as we do. When Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler are your fifth and sixth best percentage 3-point shooters, you know it’s a weapon to employ early and often. Still, there’s a difference between moving the ball around to find an open man who can shoot the ball in rhythm and taking the shot just because your man is a step or so away. It the first half against Butler we seemed to be “settling” for three point shots without exploring better options, and hopefully we won’t fall into that trap too often.

At any point in a game we have three or four guys who can beat their man off the dribble. But there’s a big difference between basing your half-court offense around dribble-penetration and simply trying to take your man one-on-one every time down the court. In several of our tougher games I’ve noticed our offense devolving into the latter, but I’m hoping to see more drive-and-dish during Phase II.

Finally, how will our bigs get their offense? Before the season started I expected to see mostly alley-oops and quick dishes after dribble penetration, but we haven’t seen as much of that as I’d hoped. Against Marquette we were successful dumping it down to Mason who set up as a traditional big man, but it seemed to slow down the other facets of our offense. The good news is we don’t need a whole lot of O from our bigs, but I would like us to find a decent rhythm down there and get some easy buckets.

(4) Seth Curry, please come home!

Seth scored in double figures our first three games and was MOTM against Miami (OH), but since then has largely disappeared from the box score (and from the court in the last three games, averaging only 11.3 minutes). He seems to have lost a little bit of his swagger and this phase is the perfect time for him to regain his confidence. He should get more court time over the next four games, and I’m looking for some big things from Seth.

Miles Plumlee has played well defensively and Ryan Kelly has showed us a good overall game, but I’m looking for both of them to step up over the next four games as well. Hopefully at the end of Phase II all three of these guys will be confident enough to step up in the phases to come.

I also expect to see a fair amount of Josh Hairston over the next four games, and I have been wondering whether he can get to the point where he can contribute 5 to 7 minutes in big games. But I think the possibility is remote enough that I wouldn’t include it as one of my big questions for Phase II.

(5) How will the meaningful minutes be distributed?

We argued about “big” vs. “small,” but everyone agreed this was Duke’s deepest team in years. I think most of us expected we’d see three stars plus four or five guys also getting “starter’s minutes.” But it hasn’t really panned out that way. Instead, what we’ve seen appears to be one predominant lineup and three role players (including a role-playing starter who doesn’t even see starter’s minutes). Here’s the minute breakdown over the past five games:

Kyle: 35.0 mpg
Nolan: 33.0
Kyrie: 32.4
Mason: 31.0
Andre: 24.0 (but 30.0 in last two games)
Seth: 16.4 (but 10.5 in last two games)
Ryan: 13.8
Miles: 12.4

I would hope last year put to rest the “tired legs” theories, but even so I’m not sure whether Andre and Mason can continue their stellar play at over 30 minutes a game. I’d be happier if the top of the rotation were playing 3 or so fewer minutes and the 6 through 8 guys playing 5 or so more.

But we’re not really going to be able to tell about that in Phase II. Against this sort of competition, Coach K undoubtedly will give good minutes to the bottom of the rotation (including Josh and Tyler, both of whom I hope will shine). What I’m looking for is Seth, Miles, and Ryan in the game while it matters.

(6) Deeeeeeefence

What will determine whether this year’s team is merely a good one or one of the all-time greats will be defense. So far we’ve looked pretty good and forced a lot of turnovers, and according to Pomeroy we have the 5th best defensive efficiency in the land. It’s hard to imagine any of our Phase II opponents avoiding the turnovers, but there are still several areas where we can improve. So far this year we’ve given up a fair number of backdoor layups and a surprising number of open three-point looks. I’d like to see both of those cut down through better rotation and communication, and these (especially communication) are the areas that we can and should work on during Phase II.

Also, it’s more difficult to rebound defensively when you’re pushing the perimeter and hounding the passing lanes the way we are this season, but it would be nice to see some improvement in this area, as well. So far Andre and Kyrie have been excellent rebounders for their size. I’d like to see that continue and also for Miles and Ryan to step up in that department.

And one more thing I’ll be looking for on the defensive end is what sort of pressure we apply. Coach K promised us full court and three-quarter court pressure, but what we’ve seen has been more token pressure until the opponent gets into the half court. Against Butler we went full-court for a few minutes and it seemed effective. Phase II might be a good time to practice that a little more.

(7) When will Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler settle into their new roles?

The emergence of Kyrie Irving as a superstar has pushed Nolan and Kyle into different roles. There doesn’t seem to be any jealousy or animosity, which is wonderful, but so far I think we’ve seen a huge difference, both as far as what’s being asked of them on the court and also psychologically.

With all the acclaim for Kyrie as possibly the best PG in the nation, it’s somewhat surprising that Nolan has just one fewer assist than the dazzling freshman. It’s great that Nolan has been distributing the ball so well, but last year he was the one who broke people down when we needed it and it seems like he may be attempting to show he can do everything Kyrie can. Unfortunately I don’t think that’s true. Yes, he can get by his man almost every time, but once he gets into the lane he sometimes stops to think and this leads to occasional moments where he’s in the air and not sure what will happen next, with the result often being an awkward shot or turnover. I expect these moments to become fewer and farther between as Nolan settles into his new role and his chemistry with Kyrie increases. Phase II would be a good time for this comfort to grow.

Kyle this year looks like a pro among little leaguers much of the time, but sometimes he appears a bit awed by Kyrie’s raw athleticism. Against Oregon, Coach K made very clear it was “Kyle’s game,” and we all saw how well that worked out. In the other games, however, I’ve sensed that Kyle felt he needed to defer to his teammates for much of the game, weakening one of our greatest weapons. And then he seems to wake up and say “I’ve got to take over,” which sometimes leads to him scoring 9 points in a row but other times takes the form of less-than-wide-open three-point shots or a head-down drive into the middle of the lane. When Kyle forces the other team to key on him first and foremost, we are a better offensive team. Phase II will give him more time to figure that out.

(8) Will we develop a “killer instinct”?

In almost every game so far we’ve lost focus and intensity for at least some portion of the game. Butler caught us unprepared and knocked us back for much of the first half. Tom Izzo noted in the post-game interview that we had several opportunities to put Michigan State away but never really did. The Marquette and Kansas State game featured similar moments when we built up 10 or 12 point leads and then relaxed and let them back in the game.

The 2002 Duke team seemed to have the habit of relaxing and then turning it on when they needed. That attitude came back to bite them against Indiana in the NCAA tournament, and is my biggest fear with the current team. Here’s hoping we keep the intensity and develop a killer instinct in Phase II.


This is my first attempt at a Phase report, and I apologize for the length. Hopefully I’ve at least touched upon most of the high points.

jipops
12-06-2010, 01:04 PM
Health and Defense seem to be the big keys here. I mentioned Seth in the toe thread but I guess it is more appropriate here.

Whatever the condition of Kyrie's toe, I feel like this and the next string of games against lighter competition could give Seth a big opportunity to get more back court time and gain a confidence boost.

The defense does worry me a little with this group. Sure we're 5th on kenpom for defensive efficiency but we seem to be slowly tracking worse as the season progresses. A few weeks ago we were 2nd, then 3rd, now 5th. We seem to give up higher shooting percentages and more uncontested looks than last season. I know the defense is different and by pressuring passing lanes we're going to give up those looks but in the last string of games with the exception of Oregon, our opponents have shot ~45% or greater. Maybe the greater turnover % negates this a little but it does seem like this team has a harder time getting stops. Will we still be in the top 10 in defensive efficiency by the middle of January? That will be something to watch I think.

loran16
12-06-2010, 01:16 PM
Minor complaint: Seth saw only 7 minutes against MSU after some rough early play. Seth saw 14 minutes against Butler. Still not large, but far closer to his average. And averaging the two together to come up with 10 minutes is a bit misleading, given that the drop is largely caused by one game.

Lord Ash
12-06-2010, 01:20 PM
Thanks so much for taking the reins on Phase II, Kedsy... it is appreciated, and a very good piece at that!

I am also curious to see how Seth performs in this phase... he will likely get more minutes as the games are less "dangerous" and I anticipate him stepping up to the plate. However, given that we will likely see Kyle and Nolan LESS over this phase, I will be curious to see how they (especially Kyle) perform. As you mentioned, I am also curious to see how Ryan and Miles develop.

As for the killer instinct, I feel that will come more "easily" as the bulk of the team settles into their roles comfortably.

Bob Green
12-06-2010, 01:34 PM
Great job Kedsy, the DBR community appreciates your effort. In regard to discussing health and depth, I'll quote Coach Krzyzewski, during the Colgate Post Game interview in response to the question: Will Duke use depth against tougher competition?


"Not exactly,....You can't get a ten-man rotation, but you can have ten guys ready to play. I mean you can, but then you're not using your key guys well enough. Nolan and Kyle have to get major minutes for us to be really good."

Phase II is the time to work on having "ten guys ready to play." We should see lots of minutes from the reserves over the next four games.

Kedsy
12-06-2010, 01:41 PM
Minor complaint: Seth saw only 7 minutes against MSU after some rough early play. Seth saw 14 minutes against Butler. Still not large, but far closer to his average. And averaging the two together to come up with 10 minutes is a bit misleading, given that the drop is largely caused by one game.

Well, it's true that the Michigan State game skews the average a little, but 14 is only close to his overall average because of the last 3 games. In our first five games, Seth averaged 21.4 minutes. In our last three he's averaged 11.3. So, to me, it seems more like a trend than a one game anomaly. A trend that I hope and expect to reverse soon.


As for the killer instinct, I feel that will come more "easily" as the bulk of the team settles into their roles comfortably.

I hope you're right. The personalities of our leaders this year (Kyle, Nolan, Kyrie) seem a lot more intense than our leaders in 2002 (JWill, Dunleavy, and Boozer), so it would seem we're more likely to keep the intensity than they were. But you never know.

loran16
12-06-2010, 01:44 PM
Well, it's true that the Michigan State game skews the average a little, but 14 is only close to his overall average because of the last 3 games. In our first five games, Seth averaged 21.4 minutes. In our last three he's averaged 11.3. So, to me, it seems more like a trend than a one game anomaly. A trend that I hope and expect to reverse soon.


I'm not disagreeing there might be a trend, I'm saying using a 2-game average, where the two games include an extreme result in one game, is a bad measure of anything. A better point is just to say the trend or show multiple games. Averaging small samples...not so much.

EDIT: Three game average isn't much better, but I remember you using 2 game average when I read the post initially. Did you edit that?

Kedsy
12-06-2010, 01:45 PM
I'm not disagreeing there might be a trend, I'm saying using a 2-game average, where the two games include an extreme result in one game, is a bad measure of anything.

OK, I agree with that. The only reason I mentioned the 2 game average was because Andre averaged 30 mpg in those same two games.

Saratoga2
12-06-2010, 01:50 PM
(1) Will Duke stay healthy?

(2) Will we cut down on the turnovers, and does it really matter?

So far this season we’re averaging 16.5 turnovers per game, a 45% increase over last year’s 11.4 tpg. It has been a hot topic in almost every post-game discussion, with some posters stating we’ll be in trouble against better teams if we continue to be so sloppy with the ball.

Turnovers for 8 games are as follows:
Nolan 26; Kyrie 22; Kyle 14; Andre 4; Mason 19; Seth 6; Fyan 7 and Miles 11.
Adding the TO and shots taken gives an idea of how many possessions we had in the 8 games and that comes to 534 plus 132 for 666. That is 83.25 possessions per game, plus probably some others when we ran out the game without a shot etc. While our TO are higher this year, I think are possessions are also higher and the TO are not out of line in that regard. I think Nolan and Kyrie can improve theirs and probably Miles as well.

(3) How well will we diversify our offense?

Looking at 3 point shooting percentage and shots taken, we have the following:
Nolan 0.323 on 10-31
Kyrie 0.452 on 14-31
Kyle 0.333 on 14-42
Andre 0.528 on 19-36
Maason 0.000 0n 0 for 1
Seth 0.455 on 10-22
Ryan 0.545 on 6-11

Looking at those numbers, it would appear we should be running Andre off screens ala Redick, while Seth has been better than it has seemed of late and Ryan can get a shot from the perimiter loosely guarded. Nolan and Kyle are bound to have a lot of attempts due to minutes played, but so far they haven't been efficient.

Finally, how will our bigs get their offense? Before the season started I expected to see mostly alley-oops and quick dishes after dribble penetration, but we haven’t seen as much of that as I’d hoped. Against Marquette we were successful dumping it down to Mason who set up as a traditional big man, but it seemed to slow down the other facets of our offense. The good news is we don’t need a whole lot of O from our bigs, but I would like us to find a decent rhythm down there and get some easy buckets.

I would like to see our bigs develop alternative shots from in close. A jump hook with touch or a turnaround jumper. Looking at Sullinger? of Ohio St and you see he has more alternatives than just dunking. Mason in particular doesn't seem to have touch on his shots.

(4) Seth Curry, please come home!

Seth scored in double figures our first three games and was MOTM against Miami (OH), but since then has largely disappeared from the box score (and from the court in the last three games, averaging only 11.3 minutes). He seems to have lost a little bit of his swagger and this phase is the perfect time for him to regain his confidence. He should get more court time over the next four games, and I’m looking for some big things from Seth.

Seth still is shooting the 3 better than Nolan or Kyle but has slumped a little of late. These next games should give him more PT and maybe he can regain his feel for scoring.

(5) How will the meaningful minutes be distributed?

6) Deeeeeeefence

What will determine whether this year’s team is merely a good one or one of the all-time greats will be defense. So far we’ve looked pretty good and forced a lot of turnovers, and according to Pomeroy we have the 5th best defensive efficiency in the land. It’s hard to imagine any of our Phase II opponents avoiding the turnovers, but there are still several areas where we can improve. So far this year we’ve given up a fair number of backdoor layups and a surprising number of open three-point looks. I’d like to see both of those cut down through better rotation and communication, and these (especially communication) are the areas that we can and should work on during Phase II.

I agree that the open 3's, especially when an opposing guard drives and draws defense to him, we sag way off opening up wide open 3's. I don't know if that is a calculated risk of a breakdown in communication. On the back door cuts, it doesn't appear that our bigs are rotating and providing help defense. Coach K has time during this stretch and lots of tape to show our guys what they are doing wrong. My guess is things will improve in both of these areas in Phase II.


And one more thing I’ll be looking for on the defensive end is what sort of pressure we apply. Coach K promised us full court and three-quarter court pressure, but what we’ve seen has been more token pressure until the opponent gets into the half court. Against Butler we went full-court for a few minutes and it seemed effective. Phase II might be a good time to practice that a little more.

Agreed

(7) When will Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler settle into their new roles?

The emergence of Kyrie Irving as a superstar has pushed Nolan and Kyle into different roles. There doesn’t seem to be any jealousy or animosity, which is wonderful, but so far I think we’ve seen a huge difference, both as far as what’s being asked of them on the court and also psychologically.

With all the acclaim for Kyrie as possibly the best PG in the nation, it’s somewhat surprising that Nolan has just one fewer assist than the dazzling freshman. It’s great that Nolan has been distributing the ball so well, but last year he was the one who broke people down when we needed it and it seems like he may be attempting to show he can do everything Kyrie can. Unfortunately I don’t think that’s true. Yes, he can get by his man almost every time, but once he gets into the lane he sometimes stops to think and this leads to occasional moments where he’s in the air and not sure what will happen next, with the result often being an awkward shot or turnover. I expect these moments to become fewer and farther between as Nolan settles into his new role and his chemistry with Kyrie increases. Phase II would be a good time for this comfort to grow.

Yes, I think Nolan does not have the same point guard skills to create as well for others. When he drives into a crowd, he sometimes seems to lose focus on what he is trying to accomplish and can have turnover issues. He is however a terrific offguard and can penetrate and score very well if he gets receives the ball in a good spot. The two together can provide a devastating one two punch in games.

Kyle this year looks like a pro among little leaguers much of the time, but sometimes he appears a bit awed by Kyrie’s raw athleticism. Against Oregon, Coach K made very clear it was “Kyle’s game,” and we all saw how well that worked out. In the other games, however, I’ve sensed that Kyle felt he needed to defer to his teammates for much of the game, weakening one of our greatest weapons. And then he seems to wake up and say “I’ve got to take over,” which sometimes leads to him scoring 9 points in a row but other times takes the form of less-than-wide-open three-point shots or a head-down drive into the middle of the lane. When Kyle forces the other team to key on him first and foremost, we are a better offensive team. Phase II will give him more time to figure that out.

Kyle is of course a terrific talent and does many things very well. At times though he can become overaggressive and try to drive with his head down into a crowd. He also can pick up reaching fouls and blocking fouls due to his aggressiveness. With the point guard skills that Kyrie possesses, I would like to see Kyle move off the ball more
and receive the ball in scoring position rather than try to drive into scoring position.(8) Will we develop a “killer instinct”?

In almost every game so far we’ve lost focus and intensity for at least some portion of the game. Butler caught us unprepared and knocked us back for much of the first half. Tom Izzo noted in the post-game interview that we had several opportunities to put Michigan State away but never really did. The Marquette and Kansas State game featured similar moments when we built up 10 or 12 point leads and then relaxed and let them back in the game.

In a number of games, substitutions have broken our rythmn when we were building a comfortable lead. Also, opposiing teams, such as MSU altered their approach and we had to adjust. I think we will be fine in this regard.
The 2002 Duke team seemed to have the habit of relaxing and then turning it on when they needed. That attitude came back to bite them



I embedded my thoughts in your excellent phase II analysis. Hope it is readable.

sagegrouse
12-06-2010, 02:03 PM
Great job, Kedsy!

What you said. I might emphasize continued development of the big men. We've cut down on fouls and gotten some offense. It hasn't been consistent, and I look for Mason to become a scoring threat every game.

Defense needs to consistently improve, and I believe it should, as only Kyle and Nolan played starter's minutes last year.

sagegrouse

quota
12-06-2010, 02:33 PM
Two topics that weren't discussed that I think are going to be key in the next phase and that I'll be watching for: the battle for minutes (and starts) between Miles and Ryan Kelly, and the continued emergence of Mason as a legitimate inside presence.

gam7
12-06-2010, 02:34 PM
Duke has finished Phase I of the season undefeated and looking like the best team in the country. Now we enter Phase II, a stretch of four home games against significantly weaker competition than we’ve played over the past two weeks, although it’s also a period where the distractions of exams and the holidays have in the past made our team look less than sharp.



Excellent job Kedsy! Just one comment for now - looks like the first three games of the phase are home games, but the UNCG game is in Greensboro.

Duvall
12-06-2010, 02:36 PM
Excellent job Kedsy! Just one comment for now - looks like the first three games of the phase are home games, but the UNCG game is in Greensboro.

And it's even a precious TRUE ROAD GAME, because the Coliseum is UNCG's only home court.

superdave
12-06-2010, 02:40 PM
Two topics that weren't discussed that I think are going to be key in the next phase and that I'll be watching for: the battle for minutes (and starts) between Miles and Ryan Kelly, and the continued emergence of Mason as a legitimate inside presence.

I tend to think the big man minutes will wind up being allocated based on who is in foul trouble. Mason has a done a good job of avoiding them in certain games, but not in others.

Namtilal
12-06-2010, 02:50 PM
Excellent analysis.

My interest in this stretch is for us to find your rhythm in the half-court. We have so many weapons, but i feel that we are not even coming close to how efficient we can be when we put them together as a team. You mentioned this with Nolan and Kyle being unsure how to assert themselves.

We need the ball in Kyrie's hands, and we need Nolan and Kyle to be a threat in every halfcourt play. This will spread the defense and disrupt things to get us more easy baskets. I think we're taking shots that are too high of a degree of difficulty right now. We're good enough to make a lot of them, but winning 9 in a row in March and April is all about shot selection.

The Gordog
12-06-2010, 02:52 PM
I embedded my thoughts in your excellent phase II analysis. Hope it is readable.

Ryan 0.545 on 6-11
Andre 0.528 on 19-36
Seth 0.455 on 10-22
Kyrie 0.452 on 14-31
Kyle 0.333 on 14-42
Nolan 0.323 on 10-31

Those are some serious weapons. If we can get more kick-out 3-pt. attempts we get even harder to beat.

Bob Green
12-06-2010, 02:57 PM
Mason has a done a good job of avoiding them in certain games, but not in others.

Since fouling out against Colgate in 13 minutes, Mason has kept the fouls under control:

Marquette: 32 minutes, 2 fouls
Kansas State: 33 minutes, 3 fouls
Oregon: 29 minutes, 2 fouls
Michigan State: 35 minutes, 0 fouls
Butler: 26 minutes, 2 fouls

Hopefully, Mason has turned the corner. Miles Plumlee is our big who is struggling with foul trouble of late. Over those same five games:

Marquette: 10 minutes, 1 foul
Kansas State: 12 minutes, 4 fouls
Oregon: 19 minutes, 5 fouls
Michigan State: 8 minutes, 4 fouls
Butler: 13 minutes, 2 fouls

The most fouls Ryan Kelly has had in a single game this season is three.

MChambers
12-06-2010, 03:02 PM
Very Jumbo-like. Hey, wait a minute. Are you Jumbo?

superdave
12-06-2010, 03:21 PM
(1) Will Duke stay healthy?
(2) Will we cut down on the turnovers, and does it really matter?
(3) How well will we diversify our offense?
(4) Seth Curry, please come home!
(5) How will the meaningful minutes be distributed?
(6) Deeeeeeefence
(7) When will Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler settle into their new roles?
(8) Will we develop a “killer instinct”?


Turnovers- I do expect turnovers to drop as Kyrie gets more game experience and as Kyle and Nolan learn to play off of him better. But I'm not sure they drop drastically for others unless they improve considerably over the course of the season because we're going to try to run a lot. But yes, turnovers do matter do matter because it is an indication of who can play the quicker pace and who is locked in a focused.

Half Court - Our half court offense needs some attention. I was disturbed by all the missed lobs into the lane, for one thing, the past week. Either get that play right or figure out how to get the big the ball a better way. Also, we should steal the butt-pick alley oop from the guys down the road.

I do expect us to tweak the offense to get Kyle the ball either on the move or in post up situations more. We'll look more like we did vs. Oregon in the half court come February. We tweaked things similarly last year during the conference games.

I'm worried about what I see in Nolan's play because I think he probably picked up some bad habits during the summer when games are looser and less D is played. Nolan needs to return to his core skills a bit and play a little more disciplined in the half court.

Most defenses have holes in them that lead to easy buckets. Kyrie and Nolan should grow in looking for them and exploiting them. We grew into that last year (think offensive rebounds for kickout 3s, Miles/Lance hitting 10 foot jumpers the D conceded to them). I suspect our ability to penetrate will be the key to most of our easy buckets in the half court this year. Reading the D and figuring out how to exploit the holes are the next steps.

Seth - I think the next month is important for Seth. I understand he had stomach issues this past week, which aint fun. I also look at his continually strong +/- stats and see that he's still contributing to the team even his scoring has dropped. But I think the development and definition of his role is essential to him being a big contributor vs. a role player. He's capable of big things and smart enough to know how to get that. I also think his D is good enough that it wont cost him any playing time as it has others in the past. He needs to settle into his role and know what to expect every time he steps onto the court so that he does not play anxious.

D - Are we going to be good or great defensively?

We have not completely bought into the Team D concept yet. We're not switching and rotating consistently well. Our backside has been left exposed at times and we're not covering 3s as well as we should with our quickness. Guys heads get turned the wrong way at times which absolutely kills you and leads to silly fouls.

Also, our big guys need to realize how exactly their role fits with the gambling we're going to do on the perimeter and accept that. When we settle down from the excitement that comes from being more athletically gifted than almost everyone we face, we'll settle into better Team D. I'm not sure how well this team is communicating out there at this point, but it is a huge factor in playing as well defensively as Coach K teams can. I hope the communication gets better because they have the tools to be great.

Killer Instinct - It's directly dependent on a couple of things:
1- Focus.
2- Guys settling into their roles.
3- Communication and discipline on D.

Kedsy
12-06-2010, 03:33 PM
Excellent job Kedsy! Just one comment for now - looks like the first three games of the phase are home games, but the UNCG game is in Greensboro.

You're absolutely right. My bad.


Two topics that weren't discussed that I think are going to be key in the next phase and that I'll be watching for: the battle for minutes (and starts) between Miles and Ryan Kelly, and the continued emergence of Mason as a legitimate inside presence.

These are two important questions, but I don't think we're going to be challenged enough to get the answers during this phase. Everyone should get plenty of minutes over the next four games and even if Mason dominates every game I doubt we'll be able to tell if it's "real" yet.

I would guess the Mason question is going to be a big one for Phase III. As far as minutes, I don't really see it as a battle between Miles and Ryan. Neither is going to drop out of the rotation and neither is going to get much above 20 minutes in any game. The actual struggle appears to be between Miles and Ryan on one side and Mason and Andre on the other. If Mason and Andre each continue to play 30+ minutes then Miles, Ryan, and Seth will all be stuck on the wrong side of 15. As I said in the review, I'd personally prefer the top five minutegetters to be seeing 3 or so fewer minutes which would allow Miles, Ryan, and Seth to at least get into the high-teens.

Kedsy
12-06-2010, 03:40 PM
EDIT: Three game average isn't much better, but I remember you using 2 game average when I read the post initially. Did you edit that?

I used the 3-game average when discussing Seth, but mentioned the 2-game average in the minute chart to parallel with my mentioning Andre's 2-game average.

And I do realize neither average provides all that much information, although I was also writing about a phase that will consist of just 4 games, so talking about a 2 or 3 game average doesn't seem overly crazy to me.

davekay1971
12-06-2010, 03:46 PM
Great review, Kedsy, and thank you!

Of all your points, I'm going to focus most on the turnovers and the diversification of our offense. Our higher turnover numbers are, I think, indicative of our increased pace of play and our players learning to work together at that high pace. I'd love to see our offense begin to flow more consistently, and that should both stem from and lead to a decrease in turnovers.

With regards to diversification of our offense: the next four games give us an ideal chance to experiment with moving the ball through the post. All 3 of our bigs are good passers and reasonably capable finishers. None of our next four opponents is likely going to be able to control tempo against us, but, when we have half-court possessions, I would like to see us work through the post a little more.

roywhite
12-06-2010, 03:50 PM
I used the 3-game average when discussing Seth, but mentioned the 2-game average in the minute chart to parallel with my mentioning Andre's 2-game average.

And I do realize neither average provides all that much information, although I was also writing about a phase that will consist of just 4 games, so talking about a 2 or 3 game average doesn't seem overly crazy to me.

Good job, Kedsy.

Seems to me that a very important feature of this phase is practice time. There are just 4 games in the 4 week period between the Butler game and the opening game of the conference season vs Miami 1/2/2011. Granted, some portion of this time is lost to exams and holidays, but this is a good period of time for the staff and players to learn from the first part of the season and work on specific areas.

jipops
12-06-2010, 04:01 PM
And it's even a precious TRUE ROAD GAME, because the Coliseum is UNCG's only home court.

Actually that is incorrect, UNCG plays almost all of its home games in Fleming Gym which seats about 2500 people. This wouldn't make much business sense to play Duke in front of so few.

superdave
12-06-2010, 04:04 PM
Good job, Kedsy.

Seems to me that a very important feature of this phase is practice time. There are just 4 games in the 4 week period between the Butler game and the opening game of the conference season vs Miami 1/2/2011. Granted, some portion of this time is lost to exams and holidays, but this is a good period of time for the staff and players to learn from the first part of the season and work on specific areas.

I expect Coach K will roll out some new things - set plays, in bounds plays, perhaps the half court offense vs. zones, how to react to full court press, how to pick up full court. Now is the time when guys have the basics down to start adding wrinkles.

I want to see Kyle and Nolan run the pick and pop that Shane and Jason used to run.

NSDukeFan
12-06-2010, 04:10 PM
Thanks for your points Kedsy. Nicely done.

The points I was most interested in were your points 3 (diversification of the offense) and 6 (Deeeeeefense, sorry if I don't have the proper number of e's). I thought those points highlighted how spoiled (due to some pretty good coaching) we as Duke fans have become. According to your points, Duke now has the #1 rated offense and # 5 rated defense in terms of efficiency in the country. I don't know how much these still rely on pre-season numbers, but that is still pretty darn good. Yet, we see lots of room for improvement at both ends. One area that I have often seen mentioned is that Kyle and Nolan have sometimes made some poor decisions with shot selection. I would argue that some of the shots they have taken (Kyle's step-back threes with a guy in his face and Nolan's drives inside where he sometimes has a tough shot from 5 feet) aren't necessarily that bad shots when compared to what other teams get from their offenses, but as many have pointed out that this team can get better ones.


When thinking of your point 3 on diversification of offense, I also thought of
Greybeard's analysis at the end of the Phase I report. http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?22989-Phase-I-2010-11&p=454596#post454596
I also really enjoy interior passing as part of the offense and it isn't something that the team has used that much this year. The team also hasn't used Mason, Ryan and Kyle (especially if he is going to log quite a few minutes as our second big) at the high post that much. This may not work that well for this team though as it may take away some of the driving lanes for Kyrie and Nolan from the top, and perhaps Mason is more effective in the post. I still hope to see some high post offense at some point as I think we have some great, skilled big men to use from there. I imagine coach K and the coaching staff may not take my preferences into consideration and will likely find the best ways to use the talent this team has.

I agree as well that this team is a good defensive team so far, but many of us would like to see the team become dominant at that end. That may be difficult with a team that is as young as this one, but we can all hope they continue to improve in communication and rotations, while still putting perimeter pressure on the opponents. I would also like to see the team rebound a bit better, but that is also being nit-picky when we are pressuring a lot on the perimeter.

The other point that I think will help going forward in this phase is that the team didn't have a whole lot of practice time at the end of Phase I, so there may not have been as much opportunity to tweak the offense or defense or do as much teaching as necessary. Hopefully, there will be a bit more of an opportunity for practice (even if we can't see it, players may still improve ;)) in this phase and to use the games to try lots of new things leading into the ACC schedule next year.

Like many, I hope this phase gives Miles, Seth and Ryan lots of minutes to show what they can do, gain confidence and solidify their importance to the team so the coaching staff will have to use them for significant minutes in close games because they don't just give the team minutes, but improve the team when they are in the game.


Edit: I see Roywhite beat me to the point about practice time while I was creating this post.

Greg_Newton
12-06-2010, 04:21 PM
Great points, one through eight.

Based on preseason expectations, I think the biggest surprise is that Miles has become the eighth man in the rotation. Part of that is due to fouls, but not all of it. He was drawing rave reviews this summer - even from Wojo - and many here were expecting him to have a breakout year as our starting center. Not so, so far. But I think his improvement over the course of the season will be just as important as Seth Curry's for the team, if not more so. Can he pull a Zoubek?

I also think it's interesting that Andre and Seth's reason have essentially flipped from what we expected preseason. Andre has been a sixth starter, while Seth has been a weapon at times but lost in the shuffle at others. Really exciting for Dre, but I think we have a grenade that has yet to detonate in Mr. Curry.

Lastly, think our defensive development will be particularly interesting. There was a stretch in the second half against Butler where we just apparently decided to play really intense, ferocious defense. I don't know if it was a different scheme or what, but it was strikingly different from our normal defense and very effective. I doubt we'd be able to maintain that level of energy for an entire game, but it would be great if our standard defense was somewhere between that red-line level and what it has normally been thus far.

Kedsy
12-06-2010, 04:27 PM
Well, I wish I'd heard that Kyrie may miss a few games with his injury before I wrote the phase report. Assuming it's true, it could cut either way, or possibly both ways. Our development as a team could be slowed a little because we will be practicing and playing without our catalyst, and/or the development of our individual players could be sped up because all nine of our other scholarship players will be asked to play expanded and slightly different roles in Kyrie's absence. (I suppose Casey Peters will be asked to play an expanded role in practice as well.)

I assume Nolan will be the primary PG, with Andre stepping into the starting lineup and Seth becoming the first man off the bench. I had already envisioned the minutes played by Kyle, Nolan, Andre, and Mason to be reduced in these games into the mid-twenties and those minutes to be distributed to Seth, Ryan, Miles, Josh, and Tyler. Now we throw Kyrie's minutes into the mix as well. Will Tyler take on a more prominent role to give us an extra PG in the rotation? Or will the "big" lineup become our predominant look until Kyrie returns?

It will be very interesting to see how it all shakes out.

gam7
12-06-2010, 04:39 PM
One additional thing I am looking for during this phase is the extent to which we succeed in imposing our preferred pace on the teams we play. Butler did a good job of slowing down the game to a pace with which they were comfortable (particularly in the first half). During this phase, all of our opponents play at a slower tempo than we do, so it will be nice to see how successful we are in speeding up the pace of play. Of course, this is easier to do when our opponents turn the ball over, which, as Kedsy mentions in Deeeeeeeeeefense, is likely to happen at a high rate over the next few games.

Nugget
12-06-2010, 05:31 PM
One of the reasons we are ranked so high by Ken Pom on offensive efficiency, despite the relatively high rate of turnovers (16.5 per game vs. 14 or so on average in years when we've had comparable teams to this one -- i.e., 1989-1999, 2000-2001, and 2001-2002) is that we've shot an extraordinary number of free throws so far -- an average of 32 a game, as opposed to an average of 26-27 per game in those other years. We've never averaged more than 29 free throws per game, so have to expect the current numbers to come down and will need the turnovers committed to come down by 1 or 2 a game to maintain our current position in offensive efficiency.

On defense, Kedsy and others are definitely right that we've giving up the threes too easily. Our 3 pt fg% defense, one of the true hall-marks of the program for the past 15 years, is abnormally high, at 35% so far, compared to 28% last year and about 31% for our more comparable teams in years past who tried to pressure the ball like this team does. I attributed it mostly to communication issues of a young club.

So far, this has been masked a bit in the efficiency statistics by our generating 21 turnovers per game, but that is not likely to last as the season moves on -- we mostly likely will drop down into the range of 19 or so, at most.

Hopefully, the chance to spend alot of time in practice over the next month or so will lead to significant improvement in defensive communication, with fewer breakdowns leading to fewer unconstested threes.

johnb
12-06-2010, 06:08 PM
If everyone's healthy, it seems that K is looking at 4 guys who start and play starters minutes (and well they should given that all 4 could be 1st round picks next year). Using an 8 man rotation, that leaves the other 4 fighting for the remaining 80 minutes. This next month should clarify who is most likely to get them down the stretch.

One of the great things about the depth is that if a big gets injured, Josh can step into that rotation, and if a guard goes down, Tyler can step in. There is a talent drop off, but bothing like what would be experienced elsewhere. Further, it's great that those 2 guys are freshmen who both seem to have great attitudes and who presumably recognize that it's important to be prepared, not just for an immediate opportunity but for the likelihood that they'll play starter's minutes in a couple years.

That dynamic between the different players is really interesting and seems quite unusual.

gumbomoop
12-06-2010, 10:09 PM
(7) When will Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler settle into their new roles?

The emergence of Kyrie Irving as a superstar has pushed Nolan and Kyle into different roles. There doesn’t seem to be any jealousy or animosity, which is wonderful, but so far I think we’ve seen a huge difference, both as far as what’s being asked of them on the court and also psychologically.

Excellent Phase II overview. Thanks.

This particular issue interests me the most. It's sort of a "meta" issue, as it's an overarching, or underlying [?], issue. That is, over the course of last season, Kyle and Nolan learned how to play with amazing efficiency.... with Jon, Lance, and Brian, and occasionally Miles, Mason, and Andre. The key difference this season is, surprise, Kyrie, who's about as different from Jon as a PG as one could imagine.

So, "what's being asked of them on the court and also psychologically" is, more than any other single thing, to adjust to Kyrie's rhythm and non-Jon decision-making. Last year 3S were almost always on exactly the same wave-length. But Kyrie's waves are way different from Jon's, amazing, to be sure [Kyle: "I don't know if he was hot; he's always hot."], but way different. How steep is that learning and intuiting curve?

Second, on O, Kyle and Nolan were part of a 3-man scoring system, abetted by 2 guys whose main job was to help 3S get the points. This season, Kyle and Nolan not only have to figure out what Kyrie's going to do with the ball, but also have to incorporate Mason and others. Last season the options were fairly limited, but this season the options are both more impressive and more, much more, numerous.

So on both O and D, for Kyle and Nolan, this season may be more complicated than Duke's overwhelming talent might have suggested. The upside is thrilling; but it presents some real challenges to Kyle and Nolan, who have to play confidently and seamlessly in what may logically appear to be, but isn't, a simple and sure thing.

Newton_14
12-06-2010, 10:30 PM
(3) How well will we diversify our offense?


(4) Seth Curry, please come home!


(5) How will the meaningful minutes be distributed?


(6) Deeeeeeefence

(7) When will Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler settle into their new roles?


This is my first attempt at a Phase report, and I apologize for the length. Hopefully I’ve at least touched upon most of the high points.

Excellent job Kedsy. I am sure Jumbo will be proud!

Just a few comments on 4 of the points.

(4) Seth Curry, please come home!
-I really want to see Seth get back to how he started out. We need his offense, and having him play closer to 20 minutes can insure Kyrie and Nolan do not have to play 35+ mpg. More on that in the next point. I am hoping that the stomach virus is the reason we saw so little of Seth in the Mich St and Butler games. I thought he looked really good in the Kansas St game, and I believe that is closer to "normal" for him than the last 2 games. In the early games against weaker teams, his on ball defense was really good. He had a little more trouble handling some of the better guards on good teams, but I still believe he will be a good defender before all is said and done. On offense, he can help make this team far more dangerous. In those early games when he entered games with Andre it stretched the defense so much teams could not handle it. We need more of that.

(5) How will the meaningful minutes be distributed?
Like I mentioned above, I would be more comfortable with our new big 3 (Kyrie/Kyle/Nolan) not having to play 35+ minutes. I know they can handle it and tired legs is not an issue even if they play that much. I just feel we will be a better and far more dangerous team, if the trio of Seth, Miles, and Ryan keep their level of play high enough that they can stay on the floor 18+ mpg with our level of play not dropping much if at all. Counting on Andre and Mason to play 30+ mpg is risky. Great that they can do it if needed, but I really believe we will be stronger overall if they do not have to. As you mentioned, we will not learn much on this part in Phase II due to the competition, but Phase III will tell the tale on mpg for these 3 guys.

(6) Deeeeeeefence
-We need to fix the problem of shooters being left open quickly and that is on the guards and wings more-so than the bigs. The bigs have improved on their rotations lately imo, but they need to be consistent there and finish plays on defense. Several times in the Butler game the bigs close the door and got stops but could not follow that up by getting the rebound. So improvement needed on that aspect.

(7) When will Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler settle into their new roles?
I am not worried about either of these guys. Come conference play both will step it up. I do think that all of the responsibility that comes with being a captain/leader, both on the court and off, has been an adjustment for both. Some of their "struggles" if you want to call it that, can be attributed to that adjustment. They are getting better at it though and no doubt will figure it out. It is so hard for Kyle to be vocal but you can see he is making a concerted effort. Last year at every dead ball, Lance immediately looked at the bench, got instructions and then corralled the guys and barked the instructions out. LT was excellent at that role. Both Nolan and Kyle are still somewhat adjusting to realizing that is now their job.

Neals384
12-07-2010, 07:12 AM
On defense I would add a concern about Kyle's personal fouls. So far this year he has 26 personals in 8 games (3.25 per game). Last year he had 86 in 40 games (2.15 per game).

Many of these fouls seem to come in help defense under the basket. Better rotation and cooperation by the entire team is needed to keep Kyle out of foul trouble. Obviously we cannot afford to have him on the bench late in close games.

Neal

Bob Green
12-07-2010, 07:49 AM
(6) Deeeeeeefence

What will determine whether this year’s team is merely a good one or one of the all-time greats will be defense.... So far this year we’ve given up a fair number of backdoor layups and a surprising number of open three-point looks. I’d like to see both of those cut down through better rotation and communication, and these (especially communication) are the areas that we can and should work on during Phase II.

I remain convinced Miles Plumlee is our best low post defender. His rotations to provide help are solid as he cuts off the weak side baseline on ball reversals. However, Miles is struggling with foul trouble so his minutes are limited. In Phase II, I'd like to see Miles cut down on his fouls in order to see an increase in minutes per game. If Miles can conquer his inner "foul trouble" demons, and I admit that might be a big if at this point, Duke becomes a much stronger interior team. Phase II is the time to "fix" this issue because if Miles cannot stay on the court against our Phase II opponents, he certainly will not be able to stay on the court with the increased competition offered by ACC players such as Jordon Williams and Tracy Smith. Miles earning more playing time is a significant Phase II objective.

DukieInBrasil
12-07-2010, 09:30 AM
I remain convinced Miles Plumlee is our best low post defender. His rotations to provide help are solid as he cuts off the weak side baseline on ball reversals. However, Miles is struggling with foul trouble so his minutes are limited.

Interesting take on Miles, I too have noticed decent post D from Miles. His problem comes when he is dragged outside and commits silly reaching or touch fouls. I have no problem with Miles committing fouls in the paint to prevent an open shot, but his problem of fouling away from the basket is something that is correctable and is probably the main thing holding his PT down.

superdave
12-07-2010, 09:36 AM
I remain convinced Miles Plumlee is our best low post defender. His rotations to provide help are solid as he cuts off the weak side baseline on ball reversals. However, Miles is struggling with foul trouble so his minutes are limited. In Phase II, I'd like to see Miles cut down on his fouls in order to see an increase in minutes per game. If Miles can conquer his inner "foul trouble" demons, and I admit that might be a big if at this point, Duke becomes a much stronger interior team. Phase II is the time to "fix" this issue because if Miles cannot stay on the court against our Phase II opponents, he certainly will not be able to stay on the court with the increased competition offered by ACC players such as Jordon Williams and Tracy Smith. Miles earning more playing time is a significant Phase II objective.

I agree with you here, Bob. Miles has the fundamentals of Duke's man to man D down better than Ryan and Mason. We will need him against the bulkier guys in the ACC that you mentioned. I think it will come together for him in both limiting his fouls and having 1 or 2 go to post moves so he's not overthingking the offensive side of the ball. He's also our best screener of the big men.

Indoor66
12-07-2010, 10:05 AM
I agree with you here, Bob. Miles has the fundamentals of Duke's man to man D down better than Ryan and Mason. We will need him against the bulkier guys in the ACC that you mentioned. I think it will come together for him in both limiting his fouls and having 1 or 2 go to post moves so he's not overthingking the offensive side of the ball. He's also our best screener of the big men.

I agree with the analysis of Miles. I would also add that he has one more year in the program than either Mason or Ryan. That additional coaching and reinforcement may be the key to his improvement and success.

quota
12-07-2010, 10:35 AM
we've shot an extraordinary number of free throws so far -- an average of 32 a game, as opposed to an average of 26-27 per game in those other years.

Excellent point, and look for that number to drop with Kyrie seeing limited action in the next few weeks.

Irving currently leads the team in free throw attempts (48) as well as free throw percentage (89.5%). His ability to get into the lane and draw fouls from guards as well as big men is a real advantage over last year.

COYS
12-07-2010, 10:48 AM
(7) When will Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler settle into their new roles?

The emergence of Kyrie Irving as a superstar has pushed Nolan and Kyle into different roles. There doesn’t seem to be any jealousy or animosity, which is wonderful, but so far I think we’ve seen a huge difference, both as far as what’s being asked of them on the court and also psychologically.

With all the acclaim for Kyrie as possibly the best PG in the nation, it’s somewhat surprising that Nolan has just one fewer assist than the dazzling freshman. It’s great that Nolan has been distributing the ball so well, but last year he was the one who broke people down when we needed it and it seems like he may be attempting to show he can do everything Kyrie can. Unfortunately I don’t think that’s true. Yes, he can get by his man almost every time, but once he gets into the lane he sometimes stops to think and this leads to occasional moments where he’s in the air and not sure what will happen next, with the result often being an awkward shot or turnover. I expect these moments to become fewer and farther between as Nolan settles into his new role and his chemistry with Kyrie increases. Phase II would be a good time for this comfort to grow.

Kyle this year looks like a pro among little leaguers much of the time, but sometimes he appears a bit awed by Kyrie’s raw athleticism. Against Oregon, Coach K made very clear it was “Kyle’s game,” and we all saw how well that worked out. In the other games, however, I’ve sensed that Kyle felt he needed to defer to his teammates for much of the game, weakening one of our greatest weapons. And then he seems to wake up and say “I’ve got to take over,” which sometimes leads to him scoring 9 points in a row but other times takes the form of less-than-wide-open three-point shots or a head-down drive into the middle of the lane. When Kyle forces the other team to key on him first and foremost, we are a better offensive team. Phase II will give him more time to figure that out.



The whole phase post was excellent, Kedsy. I'd give you pitchforks if you weren't already the recent recipient of my humble compliments.

I highlight this part though, because I think it is closely related to a number of the different points, including the killer instinct, half court offense, and turnovers section. Last year's team developed a killer instinct that was built around a relentless commitment to a specific game plan on both sides of the ball. That team played suffocating, compact defense in the half court with strong rebounding and paired it with a methodical motion offense designed to free up the three S's and emphasize offensive rebounding. Because the team was not suited to running, we almost never did. Because the team played so well, we never had to force things to try and "hurry up" to get back in a game. Even the 12-point deficit we overcame in Miami was done while sticking to the game plan. Once Coach K and the staff identified the perfect game plan, the team bought into it and we played it to perfection for 40 minutes, whether the shots were falling or not.

This year, the game plan is to get out and run, force turnovers, push the ball in transition, score, and get the ball back as quickly as possible to score again. This game plan obviously highlights our team strengths and underscores how important Kyrie is to the team, but it is also NOT a game plan that can be used for a full 40 minutes, unlike our approach last year. To be successful playing at this speed, we also have to be able to downshift when necessary whether to milk the clock or to pick apart a set defense (like Butler's, for example). I think the team has had a bit of an identity crisis when we are forced to slow it down. Last year, we only had one option in the half court: Run motion offense with Lance and Brian setting endless screens to free up Nolan, Kyle, or Jon. If the shot clock was winding down, we got the ball to Nolan to create off the dribble where he almost always looked to score rather than to pass.

This year, we've got several options. Kyrie and Nolan can try to create off the dribble, 1 on 1. We've seen us try and run the pick and roll with Mason (or sometimes Ryan or Miles). This has proven to be either incredibly successful or incredibly ugly as we work on the timing of our lobs to the rolling big. We've seen Kyle try to create off the dribble. We've seen the team feed Mason in the low post. We've even seen a few plays for either Seth or Dre where they run through a double screen along the baseline to get free from a corner three. What we haven't really seen too much of is the motion offense that Kyle and Nolan were so effective in last season. Nolan's offense hasn't been affected too much and I suspect that his three point shot will come around, shortly, but it is obvious from some of Nolan's more questionable turnovers that he isn't necessarily sure what he should be doing on offense in the half court. With the exception of the Oregon game, it seems that Kyle rarely catches the ball anywhere besides the three point line. Last year, he was able to curl off of screens at the elbow, coming off the block, or across the free throw line extended. Because the half court sets have been based more creating off the dribble 1 on 1, Kyle just hasn't gotten the same looks he got last year during the second half of the season when the team really gelled.

Anyway, all this is not to say that the team should adopt the same offensive approach as last season in the half court every time down, but I do think it would be useful to make sure that getting Kyle and Nolan the ball on the move coming off of screens becomes a top priority when we're forced to play at a slower tempo. Right now, I feel like the team thinks that to have a killer instinct we have to attack as quickly as possible, which has led to some bad shots and permitted teams to hang around. I'd like the team to develop a commitment to getting good looks in the half court, whether by using motion or by having Kyrie be the engine that gets Kyle and Nolan open. If we commit to playing as solidly and effectively in the half court as we can in transition (and if we learn when and where to run and when and where to slow it down), I think we'll see a reduction in turnovers, an increased ability to put teams away, AND I think we'll see Nolan and especially Kyle begin to feel more comfortable.

If indeed Kyrie needs some time off, something tells me we may see a bit more motion out of necessity, anyway.

Lord Ash
12-07-2010, 11:10 AM
I wonder... given how dramatically Mason has cut down his fouls... is it just that he "gets" it quicker than Miles? Or is it possible that Coach K has asked Miles to play a different, more aggressive role... something like "Go out there and play hard and tough, and don't worry too much about fouls... I'd rather you play physical, considering that we have other players at the post."

Silly idea?

jv001
12-07-2010, 11:19 AM
Duke has finished Phase I of the season undefeated and looking like the best team in the country. Now we enter Phase II, a stretch of four home games against significantly weaker competition than we’ve played over the past two weeks, although it’s also a period where the distractions of exams and the holidays have in the past made our team look less than sharp.


(1) Will Duke stay healthy?

(2) Will we cut down on the turnovers, and does it really matter?

(3) How well will we diversify our offense?

(4) Seth Curry, please come home!

(5) How will the meaningful minutes be distributed?

(6) Deeeeeeefence

(7) When will Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler settle into their new roles?

(8) Will we develop a “killer instinct”?

This is my first attempt at a Phase report, and I apologize for the length. Hopefully I’ve at least touched upon most of the high points.

Just a few comments on Kedsy PhaseII.
1. Health issues..Let's hope Kyrie comes back quickly and this is our last injury of the season. Not going to jinx us here by talking about it much.
2. Turnovers could be a problem if they lead to run outs by the opposition. So far it's not been a big problem and should'nt be in this phase.
3. Offense execution has not been as smooth as I thought it would be. And several posters have pretty much hit the nail on the head with their observations. Kyle and Nolan settling into different roles is the main thing I have noticed. But one other thing is our lack of offensive rebounding compared to last years team. We benefited from Zoubs great offensive rebounding last year. Players shot with confidence because they knew Zoubs had a good chance of gathering the rebound and would pass it back out for an uncontested 3. This year we don't have that luxury. At least not yet. I would like to see Miles, Kelly and Mason work hard to develop that part of their game. They have the talent and leaping ability to excel at this.
6. Deeeeefence is the key to success in all Duke teams. Coach K is a master in teaching defense and this team will be no different. We will have to continue to create turnovers and complete the defensive set by securing the rebound. Not letting it slip out of our hands. Be strong and not rely on leaping ability alone.
Great job Kedsy. Look forward to this phase of the season. GoDuke!

Neals384
12-07-2010, 11:59 PM
I wonder... given how dramatically Mason has cut down his fouls... is it just that he "gets" it quicker than Miles? Or is it possible that Coach K has asked Miles to play a different, more aggressive role... something like "Go out there and play hard and tough, and don't worry too much about fouls... I'd rather you play physical, considering that we have other players at the post."

Silly idea?

Miles the Enforcer, just like in Hockey, eh? Makes sense at least so far as his body and aggressive fouls. Doesn't explain the silly reach in fouls, tho.

Kedsy
12-09-2010, 01:34 AM
Well, I wish I'd heard that Kyrie may miss a few games with his injury before I wrote the phase report.

Well, my #1 issue was "health," and that's certainly become an issue. I'd like to officially add issue #1A: What changes in light of Kyrie's injury?

If the injury appears to be long term, then Phase II, with the extra practice time and four games against lesser competition, is going to be the critical period where we attempt to adjust to his absence, completely remaking both our offensive and defensive systems that were already completely remade since last season.

I'm writing this after the Bradley game, and it looks like we have a new starting lineup, and that Andre may flourish as a starting SG who can take 14 three point attempts without anyone getting angry about it. Nolan had 10 assists to 2 turnovers, but neither looked for his shot nor was able to hit any when he took them. We certainly seemed to be looking for Miles more than we had in the previous eight games. Kyle took 9 of his 10 shots from three point range. Our pace was significantly slower.

Our defense looked more like last year's D, forcing fewer turnovers but rotating well to cut off drives and intimidate shots with our length. Bradley is a small team, though, so who knows what our defense will look like against bigger, stronger, better teams?

We shot a lot better and played a lot faster in the second half, so it could just be a matter of adjustment. But having both Kyrie and Nolan in the backcourt, and Kyle on the wing, all three of whom could beat almost every defender they faced one-on-one, is a LOT different than having Nolan and two spot up shooters (Andre and tonight's Kyle). We'll still be very good, but we can't help but be very different.

To me, the biggest question of all is how will the team react psychologically? Kyrie has become an integral part of the team -- in many ways our most important player -- and now the team has to deal with his sitting on the side in street clothes. We should still be favored over pretty much everyone we play, but clearly we're not as good as we were with Kyrie in the game. Will we buck up and play harder? Or will we feel depressed for Kyrie and a little sorry for ourselves? Will we use his absence as a crutch or excuse when things get tough, allowing it to become some sort of self-fulfilling prophecy? Will we have any problems re-integrating Kyrie when he comes back?

Personally, I don't think any of the bad things I just mentioned are actually going to happen. K is too good a motivator and Nolan and Kyle are savvy veterans. But it's certainly one of the biggest things to watch from here on out.

DukieInBrasil
12-09-2010, 09:46 AM
I'm writing this after the Bradley game, and it looks like we have a new starting lineup, and that Andre may flourish as a starting SG who can take 14 three point attempts without anyone getting angry about it. Nolan had 10 assists to 2 turnovers, but neither looked for his shot nor was able to hit any when he took them. We certainly seemed to be looking for Miles more than we had in the previous eight games.
Who's gonna get angry when he makes 8 of those 14 3s? He was the only one making shots early, aside from Miles around the rim. Without Andre's deft shooting Duke would have been losing late in the 1st half, maybe even at halftime.
Even w/o Kyrie we still had too much depth for a depleted Bradley team. Not just players to put on the floor, but quality players with multiple skills. Even Josh had a mildly impressive game. Tho' TT didn't have much of an impact, it was good to see him on the floor for extended minutes.
Through the rest of this phase it looks like everybody's gonna see more action than they did at the end of Phase 1, with Nolan and Andre in particular playing different roles. I was very impressed with Nolan's improved decision making but his 0fer from the floor was not impressive. Still, 10 assists is nothing to sneeze at. I'll also be looking for both Miles and Ryan to build on their roles with increased PT, as they did last night. It's hard to be disappointed with a joint 2x-double from the MPs, but I was kinda surprised that Mason only took 2 shots, still, he did a little of everything.

Billy Dat
12-09-2010, 10:16 AM
I can't imagine this team feeling sorry for itself because (A) K won't let it happen and (B) there are so many other talented players that, while I am sure they'd rather have Kyrie then not have Kyrie, they will relish the chance to step up. With Kyrie, we had 4 starters with a demonstrated ability to score 20+ points in a game. Without Kyrie, we have 4 starters with demonstrated ability to score 20+ points in a game. How many teams have depth with that kind of "next man up" potential?

Nolan - his best chance at an NBA career is running the point and now he's going to have to be our primary PG. Finally, as a senior, there really is no better alternative. He should, and I think he will, view this as a real opportunity to improve his ability at running a team.

Andre - if last night was any indication, I don't think he's going to shrink from his expanded role. This kid's growth has been incredible, and is probably the development that best allows us to absorb Kyrie's injury.

Seth - Andre starts, Seth gets more burn, which will speed his development. I really like what he's been showing on the defensive end more than anything, he has great "digging down" hands. I haven't scrutinized his team defensive game, though.

Pace and the bigs - I have to think that without Kyrie, we should play slower, which should be a boon to the Plumlees and Ryan Kelly. For all the pre-season talk of the speedy Plumlees filling lanes on Kyrie's flanks, the truth is that Kyrie basically outran everyone. I think his absence will force us to focus more on our halfcourt game which should result in more inside touches for MP12. I don't think we've tapped the potential of having our bigs feed the post, and I think we need to keep working on that.

Defense - this is still a work in progress. In Kyrie, we lose a defender who really seemed to be grasping the system, but Andre is showing similar development. I don't think we lose as much on the defensive end, but the defensive identity that we develop will be developed without Kyrie.

Bottom line, if the worst case scenario happens and Kyrie is done for the year, the timing was right for this team to re-imagine itself. We have enough talent and experience to achieve our goals. That being said, it really is a joy to watch #1 play and I hope we get to see him streaking up Coach K court again.

jipops
12-09-2010, 10:25 AM
The Kyrie injury has thrown a monkey wrench into pretty much everything because the offense essentially revolved around him. This is what makes this so different than the Boozer injury in 2001. Sure we changed the way we played back then but the offense and defense were not built around Boozer in the first place. There are a number of ways the team is affected now.


The team is back down to a 7-man rotation for conference play. Expect heavy, heavy minutes from both Smith and Singler. Kyle is just as affected as Smith now that his backup Andre is starting. K may not be able to afford to take Kyle out much if at all in close games - and we are going to see plenty of those now.


Running a fast paced offense may no longer be a strength, we're going to have to run more set plays. Turnovers were a bit of an issue to begin with, now they will be a huge issue unless we slow things down significantly. The only other true point on the team right now is Thornton and he's not ACC caliber yet.


The defense may now have to change


K may very well have to restructure how this team plays in every phase of the game. It's like we're starting a whole new season, only it is almost mid-December.

Billy Dat
12-09-2010, 10:44 AM
The Kyrie injury has thrown a monkey wrench into pretty much everything because the offense essentially revolved around him. This is what makes this so different than the Boozer injury in 2001. Sure we changed the way we played back then but the offense and defense were not built around Boozer in the first place. There are a number of ways the team is affected now.

With Boozer's injury, K pretty much put in a radically different style in less than 2 days. While I think we'll play slower, I am hoping that the tweaks won't need to be as radical. Plus, he's got a lot more time to tinker with what works and what doesn't.

superdave
12-09-2010, 11:06 AM
The team is back down to a 7-man rotation for conference play. Expect heavy, heavy minutes from both Smith and Singler. Kyle is just as affected as Smith now that his backup Andre is starting. K may not be able to afford to take Kyle out much if at all in close games - and we are going to see plenty of those now.

Running a fast paced offense may no longer be a strength, we're going to have to run more set plays. Turnovers were a bit of an issue to begin with, now they will be a huge issue unless we slow things down significantly. The only other true point on the team right now is Thornton and he's not ACC caliber yet.


Our turnovers were down last night, probably based on the slower pace.

Also, I'd expect to see Tyler Thornton at least 4-5 minutes every night in conference play to spell Nolan at point. We saw Ryan and Andre used this way last year in many games.

I predict we'll run more plays for Kyle, rather than have Kyrie read the D and make a play. Hopefully Kyle will shoot more from inside the arc than out, unlike vs. Bradley.

Indoor66
12-09-2010, 11:20 AM
Nolan still has a tendency to pound the ball at the top of the key. He needs to become a little quicker with the ball - but not too fast.

Kedsy
12-09-2010, 11:34 AM
Also, I'd expect to see Tyler Thornton at least 4-5 minutes every night in conference play to spell Nolan at point. We saw Ryan and Andre used this way last year in many games.

I predict we'll run more plays for Kyle, rather than have Kyrie read the D and make a play. Hopefully Kyle will shoot more from inside the arc than out, unlike vs. Bradley.

Running more plays for Kyle would be a good idea. In my opinion, Kyle shooting 9 of his 10 shots from 3-pointland is not ideal for Duke's offense.

Last year Ryan topped 4 minutes in only five conference games, out of 19 (if you include the ACC tourney). And three of those five games were blowout wins. I suppose if Kyrie misses extended time that Tyler can pull an Elliot Williams, but at this point I doubt he'll play much more than mop up minutes in big games.

NSDukeFan
12-10-2010, 10:03 AM
The Kyrie injury has thrown a monkey wrench into pretty much everything because the offense essentially revolved around him. This is what makes this so different than the Boozer injury in 2001. Sure we changed the way we played back then but the offense and defense were not built around Boozer in the first place. There are a number of ways the team is affected now.
You're right, that everything the team did was based around having Kyrie this year. But it wasn't that long ago that Kyrie didn't play on the team and many of the same players played a different style and had some success.


The team is back down to a 7-man rotation for conference play. Expect heavy, heavy minutes from both Smith and Singler. Kyle is just as affected as Smith now that his backup Andre is starting. K may not be able to afford to take Kyle out much if at all in close games - and we are going to see plenty of those now.

I would agree that it looks like the team is down to a 7 man rotation, but coach K has had success with teams with a 7 man rotation in the past. On the flip side, I am still holding out hope that Josh and Tyler may still be able to contribute minutes in close games this year. There aren't a whole lot of teams like K-State and Michigan State left on the schedule (mind you there are several that appear to be of similar strength to Marquette and Butler, where the two freshmen didn't play a lot.) There is the possibility Tyler and Josh may get minutes in less competitive games (especially at home.) They may also improve enough over the next couple of months to contribute some minutes in competitive games.

I still don't think Kyle and Nolan will have to play as heavy minutes as they did last year as there are solid backups for each of them now. The overall team depth may not be spectacular, but Andre has certainly shown so far that he can defend Kyle's position on the wing. A backcourt of Seth and Andre certainly doesn't make me think Duke would be overwhelmed by many opponents, so, at least in theory, Kyle and Nolan should be able to be off the floor for more minutes than last year. Coach K is going to want to have Kyle and Nolan on the floor often because they are the team's best players, but it's not because he doesn't have any options.


Running a fast paced offense may no longer be a strength, we're going to have to run more set plays. Turnovers were a bit of an issue to begin with, now they will be a huge issue unless we slow things down significantly. The only other true point on the team right now is Thornton and he's not ACC caliber yet.

This will be interesting to watch. Duke certainly has players who can get up and down the floor quite well, but without the one man fast break, the team isn't as dangerous in transition. I wonder if we will see more taking advantage of our skilled big men Ryan, Mason and Kyle (and sometimes Miles) at the high post as passers to the perimeter and other post players, or to make moves to beat their man to score or create. I really like our big guys in that situation. The team may not have wanted as much high post action to clog the middle when Kyrie was playing to give him more chances to create, but this may be a greater part of the offense going forward. Hopefully, we also go back to looking for Kyle more inside in both post up and curls at 15-18 feet instead of getting all his catches behind the three-point line.

Just a quick tangent not directed at you, but what exactly is a true point? Does a ball-handler have to look to beat his man off the dribble with crossovers to be considered a true point? Is there a certain number of assists a person has to have? Do they have to be able to pressure full court? It seems to me there are so few "true points" out there that meet all these criteria. I'll take guys like Jon and Nolan vs. 95% of the lead guards in college basketball, whether they are "true points" or not.


The defense may now have to change

Maybe, maybe not. One of the many impressive things about Kyrie early on was his defense. He stepped in and from day one was very solid defending on the perimeter against some of the best guards in the country. He will certainly be missed in this area among others.

But, it looks like Andre has stepped up his defense and Seth does not look overmatched defensively. Kyle is certainly a solid perimeter defender as well. Duke has lost (hopefully only for this phase? or maybe another?, crossing my fingers) a great perimeter defender, but the team does have other options to pressure opponents as well. My impression is that Miles, Mason and Ryan have all made great strides defensively. They don't position themselves as well as Zoubs and Lance did last year, but they are moving in the right direction most of the time and will hopefully continue to improve to cover for any perimeter mistakes.

K may very well have to restructure how this team plays in every phase of the game. It's like we're starting a whole new season, only it is almost mid-December.
Maybe, maybe not. The coaching staff will certainly have to make many changes to how this team plays and who is playing going forward. Fortunately, they have a great bunch of guys who look ready to learn and adapt to whatever is best for the team. Most of this team has already been part of a restructuring and been very successful. I hope this continues for this restructuring and, hopefully, one more when Kyrie comes back. I have confidence this team will adapt.

ncexnyc
12-10-2010, 10:26 AM
The Kyrie injury has thrown a monkey wrench into pretty much everything because the offense essentially revolved around him. This is what makes this so different than the Boozer injury in 2001. Sure we changed the way we played back then but the offense and defense were not built around Boozer in the first place. There are a number of ways the team is affected now.


The team is back down to a 7-man rotation for conference play. Expect heavy, heavy minutes from both Smith and Singler. Kyle is just as affected as Smith now that his backup Andre is starting. K may not be able to afford to take Kyle out much if at all in close games - and we are going to see plenty of those now.


Running a fast paced offense may no longer be a strength, we're going to have to run more set plays. Turnovers were a bit of an issue to begin with, now they will be a huge issue unless we slow things down significantly. The only other true point on the team right now is Thornton and he's not ACC caliber yet.


The defense may now have to change


K may very well have to restructure how this team plays in every phase of the game. It's like we're starting a whole new season, only it is almost mid-December.

So are you telling us that Kyle, Nolan, Mason, Miles, Ryan, Seth, and Andre have forgotten everything they learned last year? Do you really believe that whatever new system Coach K puts into place is going to be radically different from last year? Do you seriously believe that Josh and Tyler aren't solid enough at this point in the season to give us at least 5 minutes per game, or that after the next few games with increased playing time they won't improve?

COYS
12-10-2010, 10:37 AM
Hopefully, we also go back to looking for Kyle more inside in both post up and curls at 15-18 feet instead of getting all his catches behind the three-point line.



You made a number of excellent points, NSDukeFan, but I'd like to highlight this one. Kyle was absolutely ruthless last year coming off curls around the elbow or on the baseline. Nolan, too, actually. Many of Nolan's best drives to the hoop were started when he curled off of a hard Zoubek or Thomas screen and caught the ball inside the three point line. With Kyrie out, i would personally love to see us return to something similar to the motion offense we ran last season with the emphasis on getting Nolan and Kyle the ball off screens and inside the arc. This works out well with Andre, too, because he can spot up at the three point line for kick-outs much as Jon did last season. I understand that there are significant differences between last year's team and this year's team (I am one of the biggest fanatics in the Jon Scheyer fan club!), but I do think getting Nolan and Kyle the ball in motion in the half court set is something that will yield huge dividends.

Count me as one who is not opposed to us slowing the pace down, again. It's easier to slow a game down than it is to speed it up. With Kyrie, there may not be a team in the country that could slow us down enough for a whole game. Without him, I think that valuing the basketball, working for good shots on every possession, and preventing run-outs by the other team all become more important. We can still run as Nolan, Andre, Mason, and Miles all seem to be good finishers in transition, but I would expect us to run a little more selectively.

Of course, I qualify all of this by saying that Coach K knows best and if we still play at a fast pace, I'm sure it will be by design and will produce excellent results.

CDu
12-10-2010, 10:48 AM
So are you telling us that Kyle, Nolan, Mason, Miles, Ryan, Seth, and Andre have forgotten everything they learned last year? Do you really believe that whatever new system Coach K puts into place is going to be radically different from last year? Do you seriously believe that Josh and Tyler aren't solid enough at this point in the season to give us at least 5 minutes per game, or that after the next few games with increased playing time they won't improve?

I don't think implementing the system we used last year would work as well with this team. We don't have Scheyer, Zoubek, or Thomas, and those guys were very key to the system we used last year. We're also (even with the loss of Irving for the time being) deeper at guard/wing than last year, and slightly less deep (and much less experienced) in the frontcourt than last year. So I do suspect that the system Coach K puts into place in the absence of Irving will be fairly different than what we did last year.

NSDukeFan
12-10-2010, 11:01 AM
You made a number of excellent points, NSDukeFan, but I'd like to highlight this one. Kyle was absolutely ruthless last year coming off curls around the elbow or on the baseline. Nolan, too, actually. Many of Nolan's best drives to the hoop were started when he curled off of a hard Zoubek or Thomas screen and caught the ball inside the three point line. With Kyrie out, i would personally love to see us return to something similar to the motion offense we ran last season with the emphasis on getting Nolan and Kyle the ball off screens and inside the arc. This works out well with Andre, too, because he can spot up at the three point line for kick-outs much as Jon did last season. I understand that there are significant differences between last year's team and this year's team (I am one of the biggest fanatics in the Jon Scheyer fan club!), but I do think getting Nolan and Kyle the ball in motion in the half court set is something that will yield huge dividends.

Count me as one who is not opposed to us slowing the pace down, again. It's easier to slow a game down than it is to speed it up. With Kyrie, there may not be a team in the country that could slow us down enough for a whole game. Without him, I think that valuing the basketball, working for good shots on every possession, and preventing run-outs by the other team all become more important. We can still run as Nolan, Andre, Mason, and Miles all seem to be good finishers in transition, but I would expect us to run a little more selectively.

Of course, I qualify all of this by saying that Coach K knows best and if we still play at a fast pace, I'm sure it will be by design and will produce excellent results.

Thanks COYS. On a somewhat related note, another thing that I am impressed with so far this year, besides Andre's defense and his ability and willingness to penetrate to create his shot, is Andre's movement without the ball. Maybe it was at least somewhat by design, but he did not move without the ball very well at all this year, but seems to be looking to use screens and provide an open outlet much more often this year.

COYS
12-10-2010, 11:13 AM
While I don't think implementing the system we used last year would work as well with this team. We don't have Scheyer, Zoubek, or Thomas, and those guys were very key to the system we used last year. We're also (even with the loss of Irving for the time being) deeper at guard/wing than last year, and slightly less deep (and much less experienced) in the frontcourt than last year. So I do suspect that the system Coach K puts into place in the absence of Irving will be fairly different than what we did last year.

I agree that seeing a system that is identical to last year is far-fetched (for one, we don't have the offensive rebounding power of Zoubek, anymore), I don't think it would be that surprising to see us rely on a motion offense somewhat similar to last year a little bit more . . . especially if this helps Kyle get the ball in position to be more effective.

More to your point, however, I do think there will be a number of large differences from last year if only because we have more scoring options. We may see Dawkins doing his best JJ Redick impression as he runs around the baseline, forcing his defender to fight through a slew of screens to stay with him. We may see more plays drawn up for Mason in the low post or one of the bigs in the high post. I would like to see us try a few two-man pick n' pop sets with Nolan as the ball handler and Kyle as the screener, if only to satisfy my own curiosity about how that play would work.

Losing Kyrie really hurts and I feel for him and hope beyond hope that his Duke career is far from over. That being said, i think Duke has all the tools to play some impressive basketball in Kyrie's absence, even if it's not based on the high-octane transition game that we saw in the first games of the season.

ncexnyc
12-10-2010, 11:50 AM
I believe the key phrase was, "radically different from last year." As for our frontcourt, some of you have short memories or they are clouded by how things eventually turned out. At the start of last year Mason and Miles were viewed as the main players, the one's who were going to give us that extra push, which neither Lance nor Brian had been able to provide us with.

The early season injury to Mason slowed his develpment and Miles just was never able to really get the job done and that led to the increased roles for Lance and Brian. Checkout the early season threads and you'll find plenty of posters bashing both Lance and Brian.

So yes, Lance and Brian were both a huge part of that championship team, but the original roles were written for Mason and Miles, anything else is revisionist history.

Kedsy
12-10-2010, 12:14 PM
I agree that seeing a system that is identical to last year is far-fetched (for one, we don't have the offensive rebounding power of Zoubek, anymore), I don't think it would be that surprising to see us rely on a motion offense somewhat similar to last year a little bit more . . . especially if this helps Kyle get the ball in position to be more effective.

I think a system identical to last year's is probably not feasible, but more towards those lines might be. Imagine, if you will, an offensive system similar to the 2006 team with less accomplished players in the JJ (Andre) and Shelden (Mason) roles, but with significantly more talented players everywhere else, so that we can run similar plays for Andre and Mason but they don't have to carry the team because our best players are Nolan and Kyle. Does that make any sense?

I know Andre's not nearly as good a player as senior JJ, but he has a similar game and if we set as many picks for him as we did for JJ he'll score a ton. Mason is not nearly as good at defensive positioning as Shelden was, but he is a pretty good shot blocker and against Marquette he showed he can score if we dump it down to him. Then, instead of McBob, Paulus, Dockery, Melchionni, and Nelson, we have Kyle, Nolan, Seth, Miles, and Ryan.

I realize the suggestion is a little off the wall, but that team with that system was pretty dominant. It was susceptible to athletic teams who could shut JJ down, but with this year's team I'd be thrilled if other teams keyed all their energy to shutting down Andre, while leaving Nolan, Kyle, and Seth free to do their magic.

Just a crazy idea.


EDIT: Actually, thinking about it, a better comparison might be the 2005 team that finished #3 in the final regular season poll. Andre and Mason would still play the role of JJ and Shelden; Nolan would play a Ewing-like role; Seth would be our Dockery; Ryan would be our Randolph; and then we'd have Kyle and Miles instead of Nelson and Melchionni. That team with that system would have been pretty darned good if they had a Kyle-like player along with everything else.

CDu
12-10-2010, 12:20 PM
I believe the key phrase was, "radically different from last year." As for our frontcourt, some of you have short memories or they are clouded by how things eventually turned out. At the start of last year Mason and Miles were viewed as the main players, the one's who were going to give us that extra push, which neither Lance nor Brian had been able to provide us with.

The early season injury to Mason slowed his develpment and Miles just was never able to really get the job done and that led to the increased roles for Lance and Brian. Checkout the early season threads and you'll find plenty of posters bashing both Lance and Brian.

So yes, Lance and Brian were both a huge part of that championship team, but the original roles were written for Mason and Miles, anything else is revisionist history.

I guess the key is your definition of what is radically different, and to what part of last year you're comparing. We don't have Scheyer, and he was a key part of the strategy used last year throughout the season. Dawkins and Curry are very different players than Scheyer. More importantly, Smith is very different than Scheyer, and it is Smith who will be handling the PG duties.

Also, the gameplan (and effectiveness) of the Plumlee/Plumlee frontcourt was different than the gameplan with Zoubek/Thomas. So saying that we simply substituted Zoubek and Thomas in and proceeded accordingly is also revisionist history. The roles (both offensively and defensively) changed as the team switched from Plumlee to Thomas and (later) Plumlee to Zoubek. And the team that struggled a bit in January really took off once we made the changes.

I definitely think we won't play defense the way we played last year, for a few reasons:
1) we are smaller and deeper (and probably a bit quicker) on the perimeter
2) we aren't as dominant an offensive rebounding team as we were once Zoubek took over
As such, I think we'll continue to see more of the extended pressure perimeter defense than we did last year. I consider that radically different than last year.

And offensively, the three-headed playmaking monster of Scheyer/Singler/Smith is now a two-headed playmaking monster with a really good shooter added (Curry or Dawkins). Not that Curry and Dawkins are exclusively set shooters, but the strength of their offensive games are still spotup shooting, not creating off the dribble. And we don't (currently) have the offensive rebounding prowess we had last year with Zoubek. Also, the Plumlees' offensive attributes are very different than those of Thomas and Zoubek, and they are now more refined players than they were a year ago. So while we will see some similarities to last year's offense, I do think it will be fairly different given the number of differences in the personnel.

So in combination, I'd say we'll have a radically different defensive look and a fairly different offensive approach. Hence, I would say that we'll look substantially different than last year. I think we'll probably incorporate some more of what we did last year, but I think it will look a lot different still.

ACCBBallFan
12-10-2010, 12:26 PM
The problem with comparisons to last year or 2006 is there is no Zoubek or Shelden, and no Lance for defense

Losing Kyrie for an undetermined amount of time puts a lot of pressure on Nolan who was already adjusting to being a senior captain.

So while the starting lineup will likely be Nolan - Dre -Kyle and a Plumlee with Ryan or two Plums,

when Seth subs in I would like to see him run the point and Nolan go back to being a very productive SG. Ditto for Tyler who of course would eb a PG when he plays.

Either or these guys Seth or Tyler can pressure the ball and give Nolan a chance to regroup on both ends of the floor.

Kedsy
12-10-2010, 12:36 PM
The problem with comparisons to last year or 2006 is there is no Zoubek or Shelden, and no Lance for defense

Clearly true. I was talking about on offense. On defense, I'm cautiously optimistic with or without Kyrie. I thought the starting unit against Bradley (Nolan, Andre, Kyle, Mason, Miles) played very well defensively. And I think Ryan and Seth are also playing defense at a fairly high level. It may not be quite as dominant a defense as in 2010 or 2006, but it should still be pretty darned good.

MChambers
12-10-2010, 02:57 PM
If this team without Kyrie is to be as good as last year's team, I think Miles needs to regrow the Zoubeard over Christmas bread.

superdave
12-10-2010, 03:23 PM
If we run our offense like 2005 and 2006, we'll get hosed in the post season just like those years. Those teams concentrated on running one-hitters and set plays for either JJ and Shelden who were both All-Americans and nice guys in their own right. But it was too predictable and the other pieces of the roster were not offensive threats.

We have had the following big games this year from players not named Kyrie:
Kyle - 31 vs. Oregon
Andre - 28 vs. Bradley
Mason - 25 vs. Marquette
Nolan - 24 vs Butler, 22 vs Princeton
Seth - 17 vs Miami (OH)

We will not run a 2 man offense with the firepower we have. We will not look like 3 screeners and two shooters. We create mismatches with Kyle at the three, with big men who can dunk inside, with our dribble penetration from Nolan and Seth, and with 5 guys who are good 3 point shooters. We're going to have a fluid motion offense; perhaps not as fluid as last week, but more fluid than JJ Redick running off screens for two years!

Orange&BlackSheep
12-10-2010, 03:40 PM
If we run our offense like 2005 and 2006, we'll get hosed in the post season just like those years. Those teams concentrated on running one-hitters and set plays for either JJ and Shelden who were both All-Americans and nice guys in their own right. But it was too predictable and the other pieces of the roster were not offensive threats.

We have had the following big games this year from players not named Kyrie:
Kyle - 31 vs. Oregon
Andre - 28 vs. Bradley
Mason - 25 vs. Marquette
Nolan - 24 vs Butler, 22 vs Princeton
Seth - 17 vs Miami (OH)

We will not run a 2 man offense with the firepower we have. We will not look like 3 screeners and two shooters. We create mismatches with Kyle at the three, with big men who can dunk inside, with our dribble penetration from Nolan and Seth, and with 5 guys who are good 3 point shooters. We're going to have a fluid motion offense; perhaps not as fluid as last week, but more fluid than JJ Redick running off screens for two years!


I can't tell you how much I enjoyed those screens for two years. Lighting up Texas .... UVa ... Carolina in the DeanDome .... losing the last game of the year does not diminish my fondness for those years.

Kedsy
12-10-2010, 03:44 PM
If we run our offense like 2005 and 2006, we'll get hosed in the post season just like those years. Those teams concentrated on running one-hitters and set plays for either JJ and Shelden who were both All-Americans and nice guys in their own right. But it was too predictable and the other pieces of the roster were not offensive threats.

We have had the following big games this year from players not named Kyrie:
Kyle - 31 vs. Oregon
Andre - 28 vs. Bradley
Mason - 25 vs. Marquette
Nolan - 24 vs Butler, 22 vs Princeton
Seth - 17 vs Miami (OH)

We will not run a 2 man offense with the firepower we have. We will not look like 3 screeners and two shooters. We create mismatches with Kyle at the three, with big men who can dunk inside, with our dribble penetration from Nolan and Seth, and with 5 guys who are good 3 point shooters. We're going to have a fluid motion offense; perhaps not as fluid as last week, but more fluid than JJ Redick running off screens for two years!

First of all, apparently we disagree on what Duke's offense was in 2005 and 2006. It certainly wasn't "three screeners and two shooters." (Who would the second "shooter" be in that scenario? Not Shelden.) Nor was it intended to be a two man offense. In 2005 we had Daniel Ewing scoring 15+ ppg and Lee Melchionni shooting almost 40% on threes while attempting more than 4 three pointers a game. In 2006 we had McBob, who was at least somewhat of an offensive threat. I think K would have liked to have had more threats on offense and could have used them in the offensive system from those years, but the complementary players simply weren't capable of generating a lot of offense.

I feel like you didn't read my full post, and you are confusing the system with the results. My point was we can have Mason down low like Shelden was and Andre running off screens like JJ and we'll be a lot better on offense than we were then because Nolan and Kyle are actually our best players who will make plenty of plays on offense. And Seth, Miles, and Ryan are probably better than the corresponding complementary players on the JJ teams. Nobody will be able to focus on Andre the way teams used to focus on JJ because that would leave our many other offensive threats open. And if they don't focus on Andre, he has the capability to light them up.

Moreover, just because we lost in the NCAAT in those years doesn't mean the offensive system (or the team) was flawed. It just means we lost in the NCAAT.

Bottom line is K will come up with something good. There are many offensive systems in which this year's Duke team will be very difficult to stop, even without Kyrie.

superdave
12-10-2010, 03:46 PM
I can't tell you how much I enjoyed those screens for two years. Lighting up Texas .... UVa ... Carolina in the DeanDome .... losing the last game of the year does not diminish my fondness for those years.

Losing to Michigan State and LSU made me soooooooo frustrated. We didnt develop other scoring options! Reading people talk about turning Andre into JJ got to me this afternoon - this team is not limited like those teams were.

Kedsy
12-10-2010, 03:48 PM
Losing to Michigan State and LSU made me soooooooo frustrated. We didnt develop other scoring options! Reading people talk about turning Andre into JJ got to me this afternoon - this team is not limited like those teams were.

I'd say it's your imagination that's limited. Just think how devastating JJ would have been playing in the same system along with with Nolan and Kyle.

superdave
12-10-2010, 03:50 PM
And Seth, Miles, and Ryan are probably better than the corresponding complementary players on the JJ teams.

My point is we have a deep and explosive team, still. We can still run, have a motion offense and have 5 guys on the court who can have big nights. I dont think we have to choose 2009-2010 offense or 2010-2011 offense. We can have the best of last year's half-court but still run some and have a really good secondary break this year. And if we do, we'll exceed the Sweet 16.

Bob Green
12-10-2010, 03:51 PM
Just think how devastating JJ would have been playing in the same system along with with Nolan and Kyle.

It is one of the great "what ifs" of Duke basketball. What if DeMarcus Nelson had been 100 percent healthy his sophomore season?

superdave
12-10-2010, 03:53 PM
I'd say it's your imagination that's limited. Just think how devastating JJ would have been playing in the same system along with with Nolan and Kyle.

No, I agree - this is a great point. JJ would be doing what Andre is now - finding the open spot (as opposed to running off 6 picks!)! JJ would be getting points with our current non-Kyrie lineup without having to be the focal point of the offense simply because this roster is so much better than the 2006 roster and demands the kind of respect from defenses that would get JJ his points soooo much more easily.

Super "How's that for a run-on sentence" Dave

Kedsy
12-10-2010, 04:09 PM
And if we do, we'll exceed the Sweet 16.

No matter what offensive scheme we use, I would expect us to exceed the Sweet 16. This is a really good team, with or without Kyrie.

davekay1971
12-10-2010, 06:56 PM
Phase II has now become all about "how to run the offense without Kyrie." I would argue that the defensive scheme hasn't changed that much with Kyrie out: Kyrie was an excellent defender, but Nolan, Seth, Andre, and Thornton can also aggressively apply on-ball pressure.

The offense is a little bit different. We still have weapons, but Kyrie is head and shoulders above even Nolan at getting penetration to the basket and creating with the ball in his hand. Heck, he's head and shoulders above about anyone else in the country at that.

Still, this isn't a drastic revamping like K had to do in 2001, or even during the '08-'09 season. Nolan is a very capable point guard and can run an up-tempo offense. Our defensive pressure will get us fast-break opportunities, and I'm confident in our ball handlers to capitalize on those efficiently. The half-court offense will show the biggest difference. Rather than looking to Kyrie to drive and create, I suspect we'll work the ball through the post more, use more screens and motion to open up our outside shooters for clear looks, and ask the Plumli and Kelly to pound the offensive boards to give us those great second-chance looks that Zoubs and Lance got us so often last year.

We should win the next 3 games going away, but I'll be very interested to see how we use the next 3 weeks to adjust and sharpen our half-court execution without the nation's best playmaking guard (yeah, I went there) in the lineup.

juise
12-10-2010, 07:25 PM
My point is we have a deep and explosive team, still. We can still run, have a motion offense and have 5 guys on the court who can have big nights. I dont think we have to choose 2009-2010 offense or 2010-2011 offense. We can have the best of last year's half-court but still run some and have a really good secondary break this year. And if we do, we'll exceed the Sweet 16.

Just like the 2001-02 team. They had way more offensive firepower than 2004-05 and 2005-06. They had multiple point guards who could blow by defenders, multiple slashers, elite shooters, and a skilled big man. None of that running off screens garbage. They fared much better against physical (Big 10) tournament opponents and made it way past the Sweet 16.

Oh... wait. :p

superdave
12-27-2010, 09:41 AM
(1) Will Duke stay healthy?
(2) Will we cut down on the turnovers, and does it really matter?
(3) How well will we diversify our offense?
(4) Seth Curry, please come home!
(5) How will the meaningful minutes be distributed?
(6) Deeeeeeefence
(7) When will Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler settle into their new roles?
(8) Will we develop a “killer instinct”?


Health - Looks like the answer to this is no. But we have enough depth to cover the loss of Kyrie (although we now have a ceiling as team) and Duke has enough time to adjust their style of play. We cannot afford to lose Kyle or Nolan and our margin for error is reduced significantly. Here's hoping Kyrie makes it back for the post-season, but we can still grow into a great team with the current set of guys.

Turnovers - I expect TOs to go down as our pace slows for more of a half-court offense. Hopefully Nolan adjusts to playing on the ball more and more (and Seth as a backup). Nolan's role may wind up looking an awful lot like Jon's last year which will be interesting to see how it plays out. Our bigs will also be in more of a screening and rebounding role without Kyrie which should reduce their TOs too.

Diversify Offense - In the half court set we are not getting as much scoring out of the bigs (less penetration, less running, more bigs setting screens). But we're putting the ball in Kyle and Nolan's more and not many defenders can check them. Still, we need to get scoring out of the Plums in the painted area.

Compared to last year we have more firepower on offense with improved Andre and the addition of Seth. But our half court offense seems to reduce the scoring opportunities for the bigs. I'm not sure how to get them more involved without just willing the ball into the post at time and living with some mistakes. And I dont know if that's the best for the team.

There seems to be tradeoffs depending on running offense vs. the half court, and the bigs seem to be on the short end of the stick of late. I do expect Coach K to ultimately run more Kyle-centric sets in the ACC regular season.

Seth - I think Seth will enjoy playing with the ball in his hands a little more, because ultimately for the next level he'll have to show he can play the point. I thought he played pretty well the other night when Nolan was in foul trouble. I would like to see him finish in the lane better (perhaps borrow Nolan's floater?). His hands are great on D (15 steals) and is scoring should begin inching up with Kyrie out. I feel better about Seth than I did after the Thanksgiving/Big 10 Challenge period.

Minutes - Seems like Josh and Tyler will see the court a little, but that will probably shrink during the ACC. With Kyrie out, we're going bigger and our backcourt minutes are being split pretty well too.

The one concern I have is that Kyle and Nolan may wind up averaging 36-37 minutes during conference play and that's not ideal.

D - I think Nolan may suffer defensively for all his efforts to run our offense, but we're going bigger and I'm not sure many teams can match that size, so more like last year - better rebounding, less on the ball pressure.

Nolan & Kyle - Looks like last year's roles are coming back - half court offense, more set plays, carrying more of the offensive load. This also means we'll be looking for the rest of team to set up consistently. Andre has so far, will anyone else or will it be a one off type of thing?

Killer Instinct - Until we get double digit points out of Mason and Seth consistently, I see us grinding out a lot of games. But if the ACC is as bad as it seems, this may be moot. This team can be great defensively, even without Kyrie, and they are really good now. If that's what they hang their hat on, I feel pretty good. I do think the issue of focus will recede some because the team is less likely to get caught watching Kyrie break defenders down. We'll be working harder to get out points but we're loaded.

We're lucky to have had all this practice time and some patsies in December to tweak our style and lineup combos against. Things pick up now.

mus074
12-27-2010, 10:42 AM
Our TOs are even more significant without the high O Rebs from last year. A team as reliant as we are upon three-point shooting will suffer shooting droughts more often and cannot afford to be less than excellent at both ball-handling and offensive boards. We simply won't have the OReb %age from last year, so its absolutely critical we work on reducing lost possessions due to TOs.

Also worth noting, kenpom.com shows our defensive efficiency is highest correlated to... our offensive turnovers. The more turnovers we giveaway, the greater points per possession our opponents are scoring. Makes logical sense, but the unusually high correlation really drives home the importance of taking care of the ball.

Indoor66
12-27-2010, 11:11 AM
The one concern I have is that Kyle and Nolan may wind up averaging 36-37 minutes during conference play and that's not ideal.

Why is this a concern? Is this the revival of the "tired legs" argument of yore? No argument, just curious.

sagegrouse
12-27-2010, 01:48 PM
Killer Instinct - Until we get double digit points out of Mason and Seth consistently, I see us grinding out a lot of games. But if the ACC is as bad as it seems, this may be moot. This team can be great defensively, even without Kyrie, and they are really good now. If that's what they hang their hat on, I feel pretty good. I do think the issue of focus will recede some because the team is less likely to get caught watching Kyrie break defenders down. We'll be working harder to get out points but we're loaded.



Lots of good stuff here, SuperDave. WRT a third scorer, I look forward to seeing Andre Dawkins moving from 12 PPG today to 15 in the ACC season.

sagegrouse

superdave
12-27-2010, 04:12 PM
Why is this a concern? Is this the revival of the "tired legs" argument of yore? No argument, just curious.

I think playing that many minutes means we play a far slower pace and more half court than is ideal because Nolan and Kyle are our two best half court threats. Their minutes are more of a symptom of a slow pace and less offensive diversity than a problem of tired legs. I hope we can find new ways to run because that will utilize our depth more. Also our bigs can run the floor pretty well and we get more good looks at 3s in transition. Boiled down, use our depth and run whenever possible.


Lots of good stuff here, SuperDave. WRT a third scorer, I look forward to seeing Andre Dawkins moving from 12 PPG today to 15 in the ACC season.

sagegrouse

I fully expect Andre and Seth to be in attack mode! Seeing those two on our roster makes me happy. The Zone Busters!


Our TOs are even more significant without the high O Rebs from last year. A team as reliant as we are upon three-point shooting will suffer shooting droughts more often and cannot afford to be less than excellent at both ball-handling and offensive boards. We simply won't have the OReb %age from last year, so its absolutely critical we work on reducing lost possessions due to TOs.

Also worth noting, kenpom.com shows our defensive efficiency is highest correlated to... our offensive turnovers. The more turnovers we giveaway, the greater points per possession our opponents are scoring. Makes logical sense, but the unusually high correlation really drives home the importance of taking care of the ball.

Last year's team found a method to play and perfected it. I think this year's team (without Kyrie) can run more, has more scoring threats and can put more pressure on the ball. So we have more ways we can win, in my estimation. So that may alleviate our need to be so efficient. But yeah, efficiency is nice and we'll get better certainly.

Indoor66
12-27-2010, 04:19 PM
I think playing that many minutes means we play a far slower pace and more half court than is ideal because Nolan and Kyle are our two best half court threats. Their minutes are more of a symptom of a slow pace and less offensive diversity than a problem of tired legs. I hope we can find new ways to run because that will utilize our depth more. Also our bigs can run the floor pretty well and we get more good looks at 3s in transition. Boiled down, use our depth and run whenever possible.



I fully expect Andre and Seth to be in attack mode! Seeing those two on our roster makes me happy. The Zone Busters!



Last year's team found a method to play and perfected it. I think this year's team (without Kyrie) can run more, has more scoring threats and can put more pressure on the ball. So we have more ways we can win, in my estimation. So that may alleviate our need to be so efficient. But yeah, efficiency is nice and we'll get better certainly.

I am afraid that without Kyrie this team will slow down. We do not have anyone who can run at the pace that Kyrie did and still make good plays/decisions.

mus074
12-27-2010, 04:47 PM
Last year's team found a method to play and perfected it. I think this year's team (without Kyrie) can run more, has more scoring threats and can put more pressure on the ball. So we have more ways we can win, in my estimation. So that may alleviate our need to be so efficient. But yeah, efficiency is nice and we'll get better certainly.

Efficiency isn't just nice. Its the best measure of how far this team can go. Look (http://kenpom.com/) back at the last 8 years and see which teams finished well in both offensive and defensive efficiency. How many final four teams didn't finish in or very near the top 10 in offense or top 20 in defense? Maybe two? This Duke team is very good, as was last year's. But this team is very reliant upon the three for that high efficiency. Teams that rely a lot upon three-point shooting have more inconsistency and longer bouts of slumps. I'm just saying.

JMarley50
12-27-2010, 05:03 PM
I am afraid that without Kyrie this team will slow down. We do not have anyone who can run at the pace that Kyrie did and still make good plays/decisions.

Why be afraid that it will be slowed down? If that's what allows us to be successful this year then so be it, lets go for it! But I also think that you are forgetting that no other team in the country has someone who can run at Kyrie's pace and be as effective. I think we are still capable of getting out and running when we have to, and I think that we will do it from time to time as Nolan and Seth get more comfortable.

I could see K using the slower half court offense (which is still highly lethal) to lull teams to sleep, and then out of a timeout just put the pedal down and run (in short spurts of course). This team has the ability to throw everything but the kitchen sink at its opponents, and be will be very successful in doing so. They can just create so many bad match-ups. I mean how many big men in the country will be successful in guarding Ryan on the perimeter? In fact I think we will see some inverted looks, where Kyle playing 3, runs his guy down in the post, and Ryan at 5 will be on the perimeter. There are mismatches everywhere. As soon as a defender steps over to help, BAM! Andre hits another open trey!

My point is that this team can flat out score, with or without Kyrie. It will still be exciting either way. Maybe even exciting enough to keep Roy awake! So sit back and watch K work his magic. I still like our chances!

Kedsy
12-27-2010, 06:06 PM
Our TOs are even more significant without the high O Rebs from last year. A team as reliant as we are upon three-point shooting will suffer shooting droughts more often and cannot afford to be less than excellent at both ball-handling and offensive boards. We simply won't have the OReb %age from last year, so its absolutely critical we work on reducing lost possessions due to TOs.

For what it's worth, our adjusted offensive efficiency has gone up in the three games we've played without Kyrie (according to Pomeroy). True, it was achieved against inferior opponents, but supposedly the adjustment takes that into account.

Our turnovers per game with Kyrie were 16.5 (that's a raw number, without regard to pace), while last year we averaged 11.4. In the three games without Kyrie, we've averaged 10.7 turnovers per game. Obviously a big part of the reduction is a slower pace, and another big part is the quality of our opponents (or lack thereof), but nothing we've seen post-Kyrie has led me to believe turnovers are going to be a particularly large problem for us.

Also, our eFG this year is a lot better than it was last year (58.0, #3 in nation, vs. 50.5, #92 in nation last year), and I think that, more than turnovers, will make up for our decrease in offensive rebounding %.

Kedsy
12-30-2010, 12:13 PM
OK, now that this Phase is over, I guess I ought to recap:



(1) Will Duke stay healthy?


Well, obviously not, and Kyrie's injury (which was announced about five minutes after I posted the Phase report) changed everything. Fortunately, everyone else stayed healthy, and avoiding further injuries is going to be a big story going forward.



(2) Will we cut down on the turnovers, and does it really matter?


Everything in this recap is affected by Kyrie's absence, but the biggest difference can be found here. After turning it over 16.5 times a game in Phase I, we only coughed up 9.75 turnovers per game in this phase. Part of that presumably can be attributed to the quality of our opponents, but I think a bigger part is that we're not trying to run at a million miles per hour, like we were with Kyrie.



(3) How well will we diversify our offense?


My subjective answer here from watching the games is not so well. But I think that's based primarily on seeing Mason go into a scoring slump. Looking objectively at the statistics it seems we're doing pretty much exactly the same as we were. Our three point attempts are pretty much the same in the last four games as they were in the first eight. The scoring per minute by our four big men is also almost exactly the same. So I'm not sure what the answer is to this question.



(4) Seth Curry, please come home!


I'm happy to report that Seth has stepped up. He's been in double figures in three of the four games in this phase and started the last two. It has been very nice to see.



(5) How will the meaningful minutes be distributed?


This has been one of the most interesting aspects of the post-Kyrie games. After playing the small lineup more than 16 minutes a game in our first eight games, the "Kyle at the 4" lineup only averaged 4.75 minutes per game in this phase. And that's been very consistent -- 5, 4, 5, 5.

The four bigs' minutes increased by around 10.5 per game in this phase, with the rest of Kyrie's minutes being pretty much distributed to Seth and Tyler. I think it will be interesting to see how the minutes are parceled out as we hit league play (as presumably Josh's and Tyler's minutes will decrease).



(6) Deeeeeeefence


Not much to say here. We were 5th in the nation in defensive efficiency after Phase I and we're 4th now.



(7) When will Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler settle into their new roles?


Well, thanks to Kyrie's injury, this one became moot, as it was primarily a question of when our senior stars would learn to comfortably mesh with our freshman star. But Kyle has seemed to settle into his old role quite nicely, and Nolan -- even including a one game (2 pts against Bradley) adjustment period -- has kept his scoring average almost exactly where it was while also amassing an impressive 28 to 10 assist to turnover ratio.



(8) Will we develop a “killer instinct”?


We were so much better than our opponents in this phase that I don't think we yet know the answer to this one.


#1A: What changes in light of Kyrie's injury?


I posted this question the day after I posted the original Phase report, and quite frankly this really was the only legitimate question for this phase. The weird answer so far is not very much, at least from a statistical standpoint.

Contrary to expectations and what people have said, our pace (measured by number of possessions) has stayed pretty much the same as it was with Kyrie. Our scoring and adjusted offensive efficiency have both gone up a little. Our raw scoring defense has been a little better. Our turnovers have gone down.

But that's not the whole story, and we all know it. As many have said, Kyrie's injury gives us less margin for error. Other than the WOW factor we don't need him in order to dominate lesser competition. I suspect things will look different in the next Phase. Because what Kyrie gives us that we don't really have without him is a reliable way to get an easy basket in a tight game. That's what was so amazing about his performance against Michigan State -- not so much his total points but the way he was able to score every single time we needed a basket. And there wasn't one occasion where we "needed" a basket during Phase II.

While announcing the UNCG game, Jay Williams must have said half a dozen times how Duke needs to get its inside game going if they want to be great, but I don't think that's literally true. What we have to have is a way to get an easy bucket if our three-point shooting is off and our defense isn't generating easy scores off turnovers. Traditionally, a lot of teams use the dump-down to a back-to-the-basket big man to accomplish this, but Duke doesn't really have that club in its bag. Which is why, putting aside all the flash and the intimidation factor, Kyrie is so important to this team (although I suppose the intimidation factor, which is MUCH higher with Kyrie than without him is also pretty important). With Kyrie, he can either drive and score himself, or dish to a big man for a dunk/layup. So even if our three-pointers dry up and our transition game stalls we can still score when we need to.

Hopefully he'll return in time to give us that element when we really need it. In the mean time, GO DUKE!

Nugget
12-30-2010, 02:03 PM
Some very interesting things on KenPom:

Defense doesn’t win championships. No champ since 2003 has been outside the top 4 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. While the winners have all had very good defenses, only 1(Kansas in 2008) has been above #4 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.

Last year’s Duke team was the only winner since 2003 to shoot less than 50% on 2 pointers. Our 47% (ranked #201) was 4% less than the 2nd worst 2 point shooting teams, 2009 UNC and 2004 U.Conn, who were themselves 3% worse than any other champ.

As everyone knows, we made up for that last year by great offensive rebounding and not turning the ball over. I understand how 2004 U.Conn won – they blocked shots like crazy (18% rate, enabling them to have the #1 effective fg% defense, just 42%) and they offensive rebounded really well (42%). But, I don’t understand Carolina 2009: they felt invincible, but nothing jumps out in their stats – they were a mediocre 2 point shooting team, a good but not great 3 point team, and a good but not great offensive rebounding team (39%, #20 ranking). I guess they did a good job of not turning the ball over with their fast pace (#10 ranking in turnover %). Anyone else have thoughts about how Carolina was able to dominate in 2009?

We’ve increased our 2 point shooting percentage this year to 55%, which is comparable with the champs in other years (behind Florida’s 2006 and 2007 teams, which shot the ball at extraordinary percentages).

Our current 3 point fg %, 44%, is likely not sustainable, as every other winner was between 39-41% on 3s.

Every winner had at least 36% offensive rebound percentage, and all but Florida in 2006 were 38% or higher. This year, we are only at 33%. So, as others have noted, we either have to pick up the offensive rebounding, or else eliminate turnovers and hope the shots keep falling.

This year, Ohio St. and Kansas fit the profile of the other winners better than us. Ohio St. is shooting 56% on 2s, 38% on 3s, with a 39% OR rate, and is very stingy with the ball -- #3 in turnover percentage, with a rookie point guard. Kansas is at 59% on 2s, 39% on 3s, and rebounds 38% of their misses, but turns it over more than we do.

Rebounding was the obvious fatal flaw for Duke in 2006. We only grabbed 31% of the available offensive rebounds (ranked #278) and gave up OR at 38% (ranked #304)! No one can convince me that Shav going pro early and/or Mike Thompson transferring didn’t cost that team a championship. If Shelden had just had a little help on the boards, I think we’d have won.

superdave
12-30-2010, 06:49 PM
I posted this question the day after I posted the original Phase report, and quite frankly this really was the only legitimate question for this phase. The weird answer so far is not very much, at least from a statistical standpoint.

Contrary to expectations and what people have said, our pace (measured by number of possessions) has stayed pretty much the same as it was with Kyrie. Our scoring and adjusted offensive efficiency have both gone up a little. Our raw scoring defense has been a little better. Our turnovers have gone down.

But that's not the whole story, and we all know it. As many have said, Kyrie's injury gives us less margin for error. Other than the WOW factor we don't need him in order to dominate lesser competition. I suspect things will look different in the next Phase. Because what Kyrie gives us that we don't really have without him is a reliable way to get an easy basket in a tight game. That's what was so amazing about his performance against Michigan State -- not so much his total points but the way he was able to score every single time we needed a basket. And there wasn't one occasion where we "needed" a basket during Phase II.

While announcing the UNCG game, Jay Williams must have said half a dozen times how Duke needs to get its inside game going if they want to be great, but I don't think that's literally true. What we have to have is a way to get an easy bucket if our three-point shooting is off and our defense isn't generating easy scores off turnovers. Traditionally, a lot of teams use the dump-down to a back-to-the-basket big man to accomplish this, but Duke doesn't really have that club in its bag. Which is why, putting aside all the flash and the intimidation factor, Kyrie is so important to this team (although I suppose the intimidation factor, which is MUCH higher with Kyrie than without him is also pretty important). With Kyrie, he can either drive and score himself, or dish to a big man for a dunk/layup. So even if our three-pointers dry up and our transition game stalls we can still score when we need to.

Hopefully he'll return in time to give us that element when we really need it. In the mean time, GO DUKE!

A few questions come to mind:

Can Duke's improved offensive efficiency make up for the easy buckets we were getting with KI?

Do we need offensive rebounds to increase if we play more half court?

Will our big men be mostly screeners, rebounders and take the occasional shot? Or will Coach K shake things up to establish more post scoring, namely to get Mason some scoring opportunities?

How is our defensive communication progressing?

Will we break out the press and trap more to use our depth (Tyler and Josh)?

Kedsy
12-30-2010, 07:19 PM
Can Duke's improved offensive efficiency make up for the easy buckets we were getting with KI?

I think these are unrelated issues. The easy buckets from Kyrie to which I was referring are for situations where the rest of the offense has broken down. Our threes aren't falling and we're not getting much transition scoring. In that situation, you need to be able to find ways to get high percentage opportunities, and your general offensive efficiency doesn't help you because by definition you've broken down.


Do we need offensive rebounds to increase if we play more half court?

There are four factors that make up offensive efficiency -- effective shooting percentage, offensive rebounding, low turnovers, and getting to the free throw line. Last year was an anomaly when it comes to offensive rebounding; traditionally Duke has excelled at the other factors more than offensive rebounds. This year, I think our best factor is our eFG%, which is 3rd in the nation. We're pretty good about turnovers, top 30 nationally, and adequate in getting to and converting from the line (top 100). Our overall offensive efficiency is 1st in the country; we'll only need better offensive rebounding if we start to fall off in the other categories.


Will our big men be mostly screeners, rebounders and take the occasional shot? Or will Coach K shake things up to establish more post scoring, namely to get Mason some scoring opportunities?

I don't think your "either/or" cover all the possibilities. I believe our big men will continue to look for opportunistic cuts for dunks and mid-range shots (which so far have had mixed success). I can't imagine Coach K re-arranging things to look like a traditional post offense. Mason can get plenty of opportunities if he hunts for them like he did earlier in the season.


How is our defensive communication progressing?

This is something we should get a better idea about during the next phases. So far, it's hard to tell.


Will we break out the press and trap more to use our depth (Tyler and Josh)?

Again, I think these are two independent questions. Whether we press and trap will (in my opinion) have little to do with whether Josh and Tyler earn minutes or not. Based on what we've seen so far, however, I would guess we'll continue to apply "soft" pressure, rather than full or three-quarter court presses, and continue to apply opportunistic trapping in the corners of the half-court. In other words, I don't think anything is going to change dramatically in this regard.

As for Josh and Tyler, I expect their minutes to dwindle as the games get more difficult. At the moment they're averaging 17 minutes between them. Whether that number drops to 10 or 5 is something to watch for during the next phase. I'll be surprised if they combine for more than 10 or so.