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View Full Version : Duke's strength of schedule



coldriver10
12-04-2010, 07:08 PM
I want to preface this post with the comment that I think we've handled the difficult games we've had so far quite well. KSU was a beautiful game to watch (especially defensively), MSU had its ups and downs but we beat a very good team, and Butler proved to be almost as difficult of a matchup as they were last year. I'm definitely pleased with our progression so far.

I am concerned, however, that as of the MSU game, we have played our last regular season game against a ranked opponent. Obviously that could all change depending on how teams that have the potential to be ranked (V Tech, UNC if they play like they played today) play, but as of right now KSU and MSU are it. I think a good balance of difficulty in the regular season is important for preparation for the NCAA tourney, and with the ACC looking decidedly mediocre so far, it's possible we may not get any real challenges for the rest of the year-- though I'm certainly not counting my chickens until they hatch...UNC, VT, and State at the very least always show up to play against us and have talented squads. We could very well lose to any of them.

And don't get me wrong, Coach K can prepare a team as well as, or better than, anyone. But am I wrong to be a little concerned that if we don't have a close, gut-check game in the second half of the season that we may not be as well prepared mentally for when that happens in the tourney?

DukieTiger
12-04-2010, 07:16 PM
Temple will be ranked when Duke plays them. Butler is a top-25 quality team, they were ranked in the preseason. FSU, MD, NCST, VT on the road will provide stiff tests- whether they're ranked or not. It'd be not all that surprising if we split those 4 games. UNC will be ranked and much improved by the time we play there to end the regular season. Plenty of tests left. When you have teams with talent, even if they've underperformed throughout the year you can bet they will be in top form when Duke comes to town.

MartyClark
12-04-2010, 07:34 PM
Good question but I think the upcoming schedule is fine. We had a tough early season with games against Marguette, MSU, KSU and Butler. Even in a down year, the ACC is plenty tough, especially on the road.

The ACC is obviously down this year but the better teams will give us their best shot and, I think, this will be sufficient preparation for the tournament.

4decadedukie
12-04-2010, 07:46 PM
I understand your point, however, we have played (and will play) as difficult a pre-Conference (November/December) schedule as any other top-tier team. IMHO, if we win the regular ACC season, and especially if we also win the ACC Tournament, Duke will be a #1 seed (obviously, this would likely mean no more than approximately three losses by Selection Sunday).

SCMatt33
12-04-2010, 10:01 PM
I think that playing and beating ranked teams is pretty irrelevant, both in terms of being prepared for the tourney and building a resume. Even if you are going to look at it, you have to look at where teams end up as opposed to where they are at the time (if that were the case, CofC would have had a legit top ten win last year instead of a win over an NIT team).

As far as "tourney prep," there is nothing Duke can do about how good or bad the ACC is. Remember that last year, Duke didn't play a legitimate top 10 quality opponent until deep into the tourney. Their biggest games last year were the two against Maryland and the game at Wisconsin, both 4-seeds. Duke has already played two teams that will compete for 1-seeds. The game against temple should be a quality late season test against a second round/sweet 16 caliber opponent (depending on how they do here on out). Somebody else will step up in the ACC to give us a test, so I'm not worried there.

Mike Corey
12-04-2010, 10:12 PM
The schedule looks a lot easier now than it will be in a month or so as the various ACC teams cultivate their identities and coalesce accordingly.

UNC and N.C. State in particular, IMO, will be considerably better by the time they roll around than they are now.

Our feet may not be held to the fire as much as in years past, perhaps, but I suspect K will find ways to develop this team to his liking either way.

coldriver10
12-05-2010, 12:13 AM
I definitely get what you guys are saying, and in many ways I agree. I fully expect several of the other ACC teams to improve their standings before we play them, and regardless of our opponent's record we always get their best shot. That said, I do think there is something to be said for being able to mentally deal with the hype and intimidation factor that comes with playing a ranked team. The good thing is that the personnel on this team is largely a carryover from last year's, so hopefully they can take that experience with them into the tournament and will mentally be prepared for what it takes to face elimination every night.

hurleyfor3
12-05-2010, 10:52 AM
As far as "tourney prep," there is nothing Duke can do about how good or bad the ACC is. Remember that last year, Duke didn't play a legitimate top 10 quality opponent until deep into the tourney.

Fair comment, but note that a #1 seed isn't "supposed" to encounter a top-10 opponent in the NCAA Tournament until the regional final.

Going by Pomeroy year-end rankings last year, Bucky was #9, and Maryland (11) and G'town (13) were near misses. Berkeley and Purdue were 15 and 16. It wasn't our 1992 schedule for sure, but it wasn't horrible.

BTW, what do people think was our hardest schedule ever under K? I'd say 1991.

dukeimac
12-05-2010, 01:26 PM
First and foremost, rankings don't mean jack! How many teams ranked #1 at any time last year won the title?

Coach set out a schedule to develop his team. Playing the likes of KSU and MSU early was going to be a very good test. No Coach will load up there schedule such that they play, say, half of their games against top 10 ranked teams.

To be honest, we really won't know about this team until the end of the season. Duke plays at VT, only game against them, and finish at UNC. How they do in those games will tell us a lot. They play at Maryland in about mid conference season and that will be a test.

Their schedule is no different than any other year. Except, this year they are ranked #1 and everyone else comes after them, thus people think it is an easy schedule but it really is the same as past years.

Just sit back and enjoy the ride, in Coach K I trust.