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pfrduke
12-03-2010, 12:16 AM
I don't have much to say since I haven't had a chance to watch the game yet, other than that this is certainly one of those instances where Kyrie's value is in no way reflected in the +/- numbers.

Individuals
Mason Plumlee 77-65 (+12)
Nolan Smith 68-58 (+10)
Kyle Singler 83-77 (+6)
Andre Dawkins 62-58 (+4)
Ryan Kelly 27-23 (+4)
Kyrie Irving 74-73 (+1)
Seth Curry 15-20 (-5)
Miles Plumlee 14-21 (-7)

Per 40 Minutes
Mason Plumlee +13.7
Nolan Smith +13.3
Ryan Kelly +9.4
Kyle Singler +6.2
Andre Dawkins +5.7
Kyrie Irving +1.1
Seth Curry -28.6
Miles Plumlee -35.0

Lineups (Score, times used, margin)
Irving-Smith-Singler-Mason-Kelly (13-7, x2, +6)
Irving-Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Mason (36-32, x4, +4)
Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Mason-Miles (6-4, x1, +2)
Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Mason-Kelly (4-2, x1, +2)
Irving-Smith-Curry-Singler-Mason (3-2, x2, +1)
Irving-Smith-Dawkins-Mason-Kelly (1-0, x1, +1)
Irving-Smith-Curry-Dawkins-Singler (1-0, x1, +1)
Irving-Dawkins-Singler-Mason-Kelly (5-5, x3, 0)
Irving-Curry-Dawkins-Singler-Mason (3-3, x1, 0)
Irving-Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Miles (2-2, x1, 0)
Irving-Curry-Singler-Kelly-Miles (0-0, x1, 0)
Irving-Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Kelly (0-1, x1, -1)
Irving-Curry-Singler-Mason-Kelly (4-6, x1, -2)
Irving-Smith-Singler-Mason-Miles (2-4, x1, -2)
Irving-Smith-Curry-Singler-Miles (0-2, x1, -2)
Irving-Smith-Dawkins-Kelly-Miles (0-2, x1, -2)
Irving-Curry-Dawkins-Singler-Miles (4-7, x1, -3)

proelitedota
12-03-2010, 12:21 AM
Kyrie Irving needs to step it up or else we won't get anywhere with this kind of numbers.

DukieTiger
12-03-2010, 12:44 AM
Interesting that our two guys who missed some time (Nolan's foul trouble and Mason's injury) had the highest +/- numbers. I had been wondering if Duke might have run away with the game if Mason hadn't been out for the majority of the last 5 minutes.

ice-9
12-03-2010, 01:33 AM
Veeeery interesting -- this does lend credence to the guy who voted for Mason as MOTM.

sagegrouse
12-03-2010, 06:56 AM
The Law of Large Numbers says that in the limit the sample mean is asymptotically, ... well. never mind.

The Law of Small numbers, a topic of discussion at the Sage Grouse lek when the hens are scarce, as applied to plus-minus is basically this: when a player is on the court all but a couple of minutes, the difference between his plus-minus and the score of the game (Duke +5) is utterly and totally random. Against Michigan State, Kyle, Kyrie and Mason sat for 1, 4, and 5 minutes respectively.

Basketball is [yawn] a collection of random events: shooting, rebounding, turnovers, steals, and -- yes -- fouls called. And, therefore, results over a few possessions can be meaningless.

sagegrouse
'The same logic applies when a player is ON the court for only a few minutes'

Saratoga2
12-03-2010, 07:54 AM
The numbers don't agree with gamee observations as far as Kyrie is concerned. I prefer to stay with game observations and they are that without him the team loses.

Kedsy
12-03-2010, 02:36 PM
The Law of Large Numbers says that in the limit the sample mean is asymptotically, ... well. never mind.

The Law of Small numbers, a topic of discussion at the Sage Grouse lek when the hens are scarce, as applied to plus-minus is basically this: when a player is on the court all but a couple of minutes, the difference between his plus-minus and the score of the game (Duke +5) is utterly and totally random. Against Michigan State, Kyle, Kyrie and Mason sat for 1, 4, and 5 minutes respectively.

Basketball is [yawn] a collection of random events: shooting, rebounding, turnovers, steals, and -- yes -- fouls called. And, therefore, results over a few possessions can be meaningless.

sagegrouse
'The same logic applies when a player is ON the court for only a few minutes'

Well, you may be right or you may not. I find it interesting that in the 4 minutes Kyrie sat, we outscored Michigan State by 10 to 6, but in the 5 minutes Mason sat, Michigan State outscored us by 14 to 7.

I don't think it's random. What I think it means is that Ryan and Miles did not bring their best games against Michigan State, so when Mason sat we had some trouble, but while Kyrie sat he was replaced with Andre, who played well, so we did just fine.

So, although my eyes told me something different, my interpretation of these numbers is that Mason was less replaceable in this one game than Kyrie was. Could we have gone the whole game without Kyrie and still won? I don't know. Could we have gone the whole game without Mason and won? I don't know that, either. If that's what you mean by "utterly and totally random" then, as I said before, you may be right or you may not.


The numbers don't agree with gamee observations as far as Kyrie is concerned. I prefer to stay with game observations and they are that without him the team loses.

Well, you could make a pretty good argument that the team also loses without Mason. Or without Kyle. Or Nolan, or Andre. If the numbers don't agree with my eyes, I prefer to try and figure out why, rather than simply dismissing them.

ice-9
12-03-2010, 09:23 PM
Well, you could make a pretty good argument that the team also loses without Mason. Or without Kyle. Or Nolan, or Andre. If the numbers don't agree with my eyes, I prefer to try and figure out why, rather than simply dismissing them.

You articulate it so much better than I! Thumbs up for you my friend.