AP Top 25 Rankings 11/29

[DoubleDuke Dad]

The new AP rankings are in. There are no real surprises at the top. Kansas State, Michigan State, and Kentucky dropped a few spots due to a loss and Connecticut jumped up to #7. The good news is that the voters saw the error of their way and dropped UNC out of the top 25.

[Bob Green]

Here is a link:

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings

It seems strange to have only one ACC team in the Top 25.

[JasonEvans]

For the first time this year, we are a unanimous #1.

--Jason "only one ACC team in the Top 25 because only one belongs there at this point" Evans

[Duke: A Dynasty]

I still think and maintain my belief that NC State will be a top 25 team by the end of the year. I think they are good enough now to be a top 20 to 30.

[J4Kop99]

I understand UCONN beat Michigan St. and Kentucky... but still. It was in a tournament in hawaii. How on earth did they go from unranked, all the way to #7? Maybe I'm in the wrong here but I find that a bit ridiculous.

As for the rest of this poll, glad to see UNC dropped out. They are still extremely young and don't really have any true veteran presence. With that said though, there doesn't seem to be much respect for the ACC this season.

Tennessee knocked off Villanova but is ranked one spot behind them?

[Kedsy]

I understand UCONN beat Michigan St. and Kentucky... but still. It was in a tournament in hawaii. How on earth did they go from unranked, all the way to #7? Maybe I'm in the wrong here but I find that a bit ridiculous.

Same thing happened last year to Syracuse, who jumped from unranked to #10 after beating what turned out to be a mediocre UNC team. On the other hand, the jump for Syracuse ended up being legitimate.


Tennessee knocked off Villanova but is ranked one spot behind them?

Well, we got clobbered last year by NC State. Should they have been ranked ahead of us the next week?

[Olympic Fan]

This is just the second week in the last 32 years that the ACC has been down to one ranked team.

It happened last year the week of Feb. 22 -- Duke was No. 5, but Wake, which was only in the rankings for one week, dropped out. Georgia Tech and UNC, which had been ranked most of the early part of the season had faded a week earlier (on Tech's part). Maryland was ranked a week later. Before that, you have to go back to two weeks early in the 1977-78 season, when UNC was the only ranked ACC team.

What's disturbing is that the ACC isn't even that strong in other-teams-receiving-votes. UNC came in 29th and Virginia Tech at No. 32.

[fisheyes]

This is just the second week in the last 32 years that the ACC has been down to one ranked team.

It happened last year the week of Feb. 22 -- Duke was No. 5, but Wake, which was only in the rankings for one week, dropped out. Georgia Tech and UNC, which had been ranked most of the early part of the season had faded a week earlier (on Tech's part). Maryland was ranked a week later. Before that, you have to go back to two weeks early in the 1977-78 season, when UNC was the only ranked ACC team.

What's disturbing is that the ACC isn't even that strong in other-teams-receiving-votes. UNC came in 29th and Virginia Tech at No. 32.

How do you guys remember/find this stuff?!!!! I am not worthy!

[Channing]

I understand UCONN beat Michigan St. and Kentucky... but still. It was in a tournament in hawaii. How on earth did they go from unranked, all the way to #7? Maybe I'm in the wrong here but I find that a bit ridiculous.

As for the rest of this poll, glad to see UNC dropped out. They are still extremely young and don't really have any true veteran presence. With that said though, there doesn't seem to be much respect for the ACC this season.

Tennessee knocked off Villanova but is ranked one spot behind them?

To the contrary, I think it is great. Preseason rankings are completely irrelevant. I am glad the voters looked at what UConn did on the court and rewarded them appropriately. Does any other team have two wine as impressive as UConn's wins?

[DukeFanSince1990]

How do you guys remember/find this stuff?!!!! I am not worthy!

And..............thats why I come here so often. :)

[uh_no]

To the contrary, I think it is great. Preseason rankings are completely irrelevant. I am glad the voters looked at what UConn did on the court and rewarded them appropriately. Does any other team have two wine as impressive as UConn's wins?

Uconn bias aside: uconn has looked like one of the best teams in the country thus far

does anyone disagree? the only teams someone could say might look better are duke and OSU....they beat UK by 17 for goodness sake!

that said: last time uconn won the maui invitational they lost to a well known basketball powerhouse named george mason and didn't make the final 4

[InSpades]

To the contrary, I think it is great. Preseason rankings are completely irrelevant. I am glad the voters looked at what UConn did on the court and rewarded them appropriately. Does any other team have two wine as impressive as UConn's wins?

I was going to post the same thing so I will just reiterate the point. I'd much rather voters over-emphasize actual results and under-emphasize their pre-conceived notions. If they did that then there's no way UNC would have still been ranked last week (or still receiving votes this week). Give UConn credit for coming up with some pretty big wins.

[CampbellBlueDevil]

I don't see anything wrong with UCONN's jump, they did beat two very good squads. Possibly with the allegations and trouble swirling around their program it caused voters to vote cautiously in the preseason polls.

Duke definitely is holding the ACC torch.

[rasputin]

I don't see anything wrong with UCONN's jump, they did beat two very good squads. Possibly with the allegations and trouble swirling around their program it caused voters to vote cautiously in the preseason polls.

Duke definitely is holding the ACC torch.

The torch is more like a match at this point.

[CDu]

I understand UCONN beat Michigan St. and Kentucky... but still. It was in a tournament in hawaii. How on earth did they go from unranked, all the way to #7? Maybe I'm in the wrong here but I find that a bit ridiculous.

As for the rest of this poll, glad to see UNC dropped out. They are still extremely young and don't really have any true veteran presence. With that said though, there doesn't seem to be much respect for the ACC this season.

Tennessee knocked off Villanova but is ranked one spot behind them?

Actually, I think this is one of the rare times that the voters did it right. They acknowledged that they may have missed on UConn in the pre-season rankings, and adjusted accordingly. UConn looked terrific in beating MSU and dismantling UK, and those two teams are ranked in the top-10.

If there had been no pre-season rankings, UConn would be a top-5/10 team without question right now. The only argument against UConn to this point is that the voters didn't think they'd be good before the season starts.

Now, UConn may or may not turn out to be any good. But their resume to this point in the season is that of a top ten team. And if you don't think they're a top-10 team, which teams outside of the top 10 would you put ahead of them? All of the other unbeatens have big questions (Baylor and Syracuse lost a bunch of key players from last year and haven't played anyone of note yet).

[uh_no]

Possibly with the allegations and trouble swirling around their program it caused voters to vote cautiously in the preseason polls.


Or perhaps because they were a terrible squad last year with no headline incoming freshman while effort problems have plagued the team the past few years call into question calhoun's ability to put together a good team....i don't think the allegations of trouble have any effect on a teams rakings (as it should be.....the rankings are about BASKETBALL not ethics)

[CameronBornAndBred]

It seems strange to have only one ACC team in the Top 25.
Any idea when, if ever, this has happened before?

[Kedsy]

Any idea when, if ever, this has happened before?

Look at OlympicFan's post #7 above.

[SilkyJ]

I understand UCONN beat Michigan St. and Kentucky... but still. It was in a tournament in hawaii. How on earth did they go from unranked, all the way to #7?

I think UConn's wins should be recognized, but I don't think they are a top 10 team. Probably more like mid-teens, and I think that's where they'll end up, at best.

That said, voters threw out the preseason rankings appropriately and rewarded UConn. Ranking isn't an exact science, but they got the general idea right. I certainly don't understand your issue with the tournament being in Hawaii...they beat two really good teams, and looked good doing so (other than at the FT line), it wasn't at home, so who cares if it was in Hawaii, Alaska, Canada, or any other place?

[gam7]

This is just the second week in the last 32 years that the ACC has been down to one ranked team.

It happened last year the week of Feb. 22 -- Duke was No. 5, but Wake, which was only in the rankings for one week, dropped out. Georgia Tech and UNC, which had been ranked most of the early part of the season had faded a week earlier (on Tech's part). Maryland was ranked a week later. Before that, you have to go back to two weeks early in the 1977-78 season, when UNC was the only ranked ACC team.


And in both of those years Duke played in the national championship game.

[loran16]

To the contrary, I think it is great. Preseason rankings are completely irrelevant. I am glad the voters looked at what UConn did on the court and rewarded them appropriately. Does any other team have two wine as impressive as UConn's wins?

Actually....maybe not? http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/the_pre-season_ap_poll_is_great/

The preseason poll is actually a better predictor of results than the in-season one. The problem is that the in-season one overreacts to bad losses and good wins.

UConn definitely is a top 25 team. Are they really a top 10 team? Hard to say.

[bluepenguin]

While I try to decide, here is a link to Ken Pomeroy's Duke (http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Duke) page... lots of cool stat stuff there.
Ken Pom's Game plan show's Duke winning every game. But at the bottom it show's predicted record of 29-2 (14-2 in conference). So which 2 conference games is he predicting Duke loses? Am I reading his page correctly?

[sleepybear]

I have sworn off reading the polls until after January 1st.

[juise]

Ken Pom's Game plan show's Duke winning every game. But at the bottom it show's predicted record of 29-2 (14-2 in conference). So which 2 conference games is he predicting Duke loses? Am I reading his page correctly?

Right below the projected record (http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Duke) it says:


Projected record is based on cumulative probabilities of winning each game and may not equal the individual game predictions.

Kind of like the probability of flipping a fair coin and getting heads is 50% for each individual flip, but the probability of getting heads 3 times in a row is less than 50% (12.5%, in theory).

[sagegrouse]

Ken Pom's Game plan show's Duke winning every game. But at the bottom it show's predicted record of 29-2 (14-2 in conference). So which 2 conference games is he predicting Duke loses? Am I reading his page correctly?

It is probabilistic: Duke is favored in every game (win probability > 50%) but is almost certain to lose some games. For example, if Duke has a 90% chance of winning each of 30 games, the expected number of losses would be three.

sagegrouse

[SCMatt33]

Actually....maybe not? http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/the_pre-season_ap_poll_is_great/

The preseason poll is actually a better predictor of results than the in-season one. The problem is that the in-season one overreacts to bad losses and good wins.

UConn definitely is a top 25 team. Are they really a top 10 team? Hard to say.

I don't think that Pomeroy's analysis really applies to UConn because it only concerns the results and movements of teams ranked #1. His post does raise an interesting question, though, in what the polls are supposed to represent. Pomeroy has this to say.

Now, you’re saying, “Ken, the ratings aren’t designed to identify the best teams! No pollster is doing that!” My response to you would be “Stop yelling.” And then - why aren’t they doing that? I also ask you – what are they trying to do? You probably can’t answer the last question, and I couldn’t either so I contacted the AP to determine what instructions are given to voters. They did not respond.

I believe that Ken's analysis is correct except that he is missing two big words at the end, right now. The Polls have always been a snapshot of the current landscape and not a predictor of future performance. The only one that is commonly used as a predictor is the preseason poll, which is probably why it is better at predicting things. Will UConn be a top 10 team come Selection Sunday, probably not. I'm not sure they will even be a top 25 team as I personally don't believe that they can simply have Kemba Walker carry them with little help for an entire season. Unless someone else steps up big time, UConn will lose every game against a half decent team when Walker has a sub-par performance and that is not a formula for consistent success. Right now, though, any rankings based on performance only should have UConn in the top ten.

Unfortunately for those of us who love the dork polls, they are all still influenced by preseason ratings, so we can't know for sure where UConn stands base solely on performance.

[Duke: A Dynasty]

So how far should Minn. fall? They beat UNC who was ranked number 8 but yeaaa and now they lost UVA.

[DukieInBrasil]

And in both of those years Duke played in the national championship game.
great stat. It bodes well.