ACC/Big10(11) Challenge Thread - 2010 edition

[loran16]

I didnt' see this posted anywhere, and the challenge is tomorrow guys! We're clearly big underdogs in this one (as a conference. Duke is a favorite). How do y'all think it'll go?

Pomeroy has the games as the following (home teams in caps, and chance of an ACC win in %s):
Monday
MINNESOTA d. Virginia (12%)
Tuesday
Iowa d. WAKE FOREST (41%)
NORTHWESTERN d. GTech (31%)
Ohio State d. FSU (31%)
CLEMSON d. Michigan (86%)
ILLINOIS d. North Carolina (30%)
Wednesday
BOSTON COLLEGE d. Indiana (68%)
WISCONSIN d. NCState (18%)
VA TECH d. Purdue (51%)
PENN STATE d. Maryland (48%)
DUKE d. Michigan State (87%)

Final Pomeroy total: Big 10 7, ACC 4.

Note that only two games are thought of as almost certain wins (Clemson and Duke) for the ACC and I wouldn't necessarily bet on a blow out in either game. meanwhile, two games, VTech and Maryland's games, are basically coin flips.

Should be very interesting.

[turnandburn55]

87% for Duke? Really? I like our odds, especially in the friendly confines of Cameron, and I realize MSU hasn't been in top form, but that's a bit steep. Probably too small of a sample size of games which skews the numbers this early in the season...

[loran16]

87% for Duke? Really? I like our odds, especially in the friendly confines of Cameron, and I realize MSU hasn't been in top form, but that's a bit steep. Probably too small of a sample size of games which skews the numbers this early in the season...

Pomeroy gives large home court edges. Thus when #2 plays #5 at #2, it results in a very favorable line for #2.

Thus the system predicts a 12 point win.

[Faustus]

Man, I'd sure rather watch those Weds. night games than the Tuesday ones. Wish ESPN had mixed them up a little better. But Penn St. is pretty dreadful - Maryland ought to be able to find a way to slip past them even in their diminished state.

[DukeSean]

hmmm...9 out of 11 home teams winning seems a bit skewed. Granted, those two coin flips could go either way, so it seems like Pomeroy has given benefit of the doubt to home team.

And yea I think it'll be a lot closer than 87% chance win for Duke over MSU. I'd say 70%.

[uh_no]

in all fairness, the acc probably should have cleaned up last year.....

also unfortunately, UNC didn't finish last in the conference last year, so they get to play and get us a loss

[DevilHorns]

in all fairness, the acc probably should have cleaned up last year.....

also unfortunately, UNC didn't finish last in the conference last year, so they get to play and get us a loss

I'll take:

UNC loss, ACC conference loss

over

UNC win, ACC conference win

[Bob Green]

I'll take:

UNC loss, ACC conference loss

over

UNC win, ACC conference win

This is the line of thinking I cannot agree with. If it means the ACC wins the challenge, I'll gladly root for Carolina. I realize I'm in the minority but conference prestige is important in the big picture.

[DevilHorns]

This is the line of thinking I cannot agree with. If it means the ACC wins the challenge, I'll gladly root for Carolina. I realize I'm in the minority but conference prestige is important in the big picture.

Not sure if you're in the minority... I'm guessing it's closer to 50/50 on which stance most Duke/ACC fans take on this question of conference loyalty vs rivalry hatred.

If a UNC loss helps paint the picture that the ACC has less clout this year as a conference, and if that affects Duke's seeding in the NCAA this year, then I'd gladly take a UNC win.

However, I don't think UNC's performance in the challenge will have any bearing on our seed status this year (in another year, perhaps).

In general, I agree that conference prestige is important in the long run... and for that, I support every team in the challenge outside of UNC. :)

[RoyalBlue08]

This is the line of thinking I cannot agree with. If it means the ACC wins the challenge, I'll gladly root for Carolina. I realize I'm in the minority but conference prestige is important in the big picture.

I agree. Especially considering the ACC hasn't been exactly lighting it up thus far in the non conference. (As I type this, I am watching Va Tech lose another one). I'd really like to see us getting back to being the #1 conference again. But for this week, I'd take a win in the challenge.

[DevilHorns]

Follow-up question:

Do you root for UNC out of conference?

Why root for UNC simply because it's part of the ACC/Big10 challenge? Do you think that winning/losing the challenge actually has bearing on seeding for the teams invited into the tourney... or do you think they look at the overall record of ACC vs out of conference teams? My opinion is that they look at the overall record not at a selection of games in the "challenge" as separate from the whole.

Thoughts?

[Zeb]

I am going to Champaign for the UNC-Illinois game. There is not a chance in hell I will be cheering for Carolina. Go Illini! Go ACC!

[loran16]

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/your_guide_to_the_acc_big_ten_challenge/

Pomeroy now has the ACC favored to lose 8 games (VT flipped with its loss), but projects the Big 10 wins the challenge only 64% of the time.

Most important perhaps is Monday's game:

"Tonight’s game between Virginia and Minnesota may be the least compelling of the series, but as it’s the Big Ten’s best chance for victory, a win by the Cavaliers would flip the balance of power. The ACC would have a 59.8% of winning the series if Tony Bennett’s team pulls off the upset. More generally, if the ACC somehow gets through the Monday and Tuesday minefield with a draw or better, it’s bad news for the Big Ten, since the ACC has a 59.5% chance of winning at least three games on Wednesday. "

[brevity]

Follow-up question:

Do you root for UNC out of conference?

Why root for UNC simply because it's part of the ACC/Big10 challenge? Do you think that winning/losing the challenge actually has bearing on seeding for the teams invited into the tourney... or do you think they look at the overall record of ACC vs out of conference teams? My opinion is that they look at the overall record not at a selection of games in the "challenge" as separate from the whole.

Thoughts?

I think, for tournament inclusion and seeding purposes, conference RPI and other dork poll measures matter a whole lot more to the Selection Committee than a set of randomly aligned November games.

The answer to your question, I imagine, is conference pride. Those who grew up in ACC country and attended an ACC school can attest to the unique, brutal nature of surviving that conference year in and out. Specifically, Duke fans can simultaneously hate UNC and root for the general good of the ACC, especially against those foul-prone oafs from the Big Ten who can't score points. (Dramatic generalization.)

Losing the Challenge again, fairly or not, would point to a trend by which the Big Ten is on an upswing and the ACC on a downswing. Add the stronger showing of the Big Ten in the polls, and casual observers to the game start to become really annoying.

[Bluedevil114]

Follow-up question:

Do you root for UNC out of conference?

Why root for UNC simply because it's part of the ACC/Big10 challenge? Do you think that winning/losing the challenge actually has bearing on seeding for the teams invited into the tourney... or do you think they look at the overall record of ACC vs out of conference teams? My opinion is that they look at the overall record not at a selection of games in the "challenge" as separate from the whole.

Thoughts?

I agree!! If the ACC loses this challenge then there will be even more talk about Duke going undefeated. I hate UNC and will never find myself rooting for them. Did you see that crowd last night, they were in a frenzy because they beat College of Charleston at home in a close one.

[davekay1971]

I can't bring myself to root for UNC under any circumstances. I absolutey hate the ACC being on the downside of the ACC/Big10 challenge, because I'm an ACC fan through and through. But Carolina just has that special place of loathing in my heart. I suppose if I lived in Big 10 country rather than in Charlotte, I might feel differently and root for UNC to win so I wouldn't have to listen to all the Big 10 fans...

As for the nationwide perception of conference strength and, specifically, ACC strength, I think the NCAAT performance is much, much more important than the ACC/Big10 performance. Only Duke and UNC have consistently performed well in the tournament over the last decade. In the last 5 years, the rest of the ACC has completely fallen on their collective faces in the big dance. That's where our conference credibility has taken a hit and where the ACC has come to be perceived as a 2 team conference. Until we can start getting multiple teams into the 2nd weekend of the tournament, that perception will continue, regardless of how we do in the ACC/Big10 challenge.

[Bluealum]

This is the line of thinking I cannot agree with. If it means the ACC wins the challenge, I'll gladly root for Carolina. I realize I'm in the minority but conference prestige is important in the big picture.

I certainly hope you are not in the minority. There are many, many reasons to pull for an ACC victory, and if Carolina can put us over the top, I will pull for them even if I cannot do it with much enthusiasm.

Forget NCAA tourney seeding for us, hopefully we will be good enough to get a 1 seed this year, strength of ACC notwithstanding.

However wins in the tourney give teams in our conference more confidence. Duke needs good competition (not routs night after night) in order to develop itself for the march run we are all hoping for. We have the depth to capitalize on a strong conference slate and I find it disappointing the conference is looking as bad as it has ever been in the last 3 decades when it would be great for us if it were strong. Wins over Big-10 schools can provide a lift to conference teams that will make them better tests for our guys.

From a recruiting perspective, playing in the #1 conference against top flight competition is a huge selling point. It was the biggest reason Calimari left Memphis for Big Blue nation (that and pending investigations at Memphis....okay not a good example but you get my drift)

Conference dollars are also impacted by the number of teams that make the tourney. In a world with a few dominant ACC teams like Duke/UNC/Maryland a few years ago, there were going to be a lot of bottom dwellers, but the 3 would carry the tourney torch. When we have 1 great team and a lot of teams in transition, a good perception of the conference will result in bubble teams getting in because the conference is so tough and teams beat each other up. If we lose OOC games all those bubbles pop. This means less sizzle when negotiating contracts for the ACC and less money all around.

Tougher recruiting, worse competition for our guys, less money for the conference, AND worst of all hearing all the Big-10 fans chest thumping about how they torched the ACC (even though they barely raised an eyebrow when we beat them for a decade or so) makes it a no-brainer for me.

If the ACC is getting trounced anyway, I am ambivalent about a UNC win. If, however, it's even close, I would want the Heels to pull out the win even though I couldn't actually cheer.

[pamtar]

I'll pull for UNC against ILL. Its likely we'll be able to watch the heels get burned many more times this year. Plus, a win in the Challenge will make their existence somewhat worthwhile.

As for kenpom's other picks, i disagree with a few. In all fairness Ill say VT, NCSU, FSU, and MD have a very good chance to win if they play up to their abilities. I would not be surprised if the challenge ends up being a lot closer than predicted.

I think our game may be one of the most exiting match-ups of the season. Both backcourts are electric. However, I think our bigs and depth will be the difference.

[sandinmyshoes]

Can't see how the ACC pulls this one out.

On MSU, Izzo is a great coach, obviously, but his teams always seem to start out the gate slow and build over the course of the season. For them to knock us off wouldn't be mindnumbing, but I suspect we'll win comfortably. I'd be more worried about them if the game was in January through March.

[Bob Green]

From a recruiting perspective, playing in the #1 conference against top flight competition is a huge selling point....

Solid post! I desire the ACC to be the #1 basketball conference in order to enhance recruiting. Conference prestige is a vital aspect of the recruiting picture.

[JohnGalt]

Solid post! I desire the ACC to be the #1 basketball conference in order to enhance recruiting. Conference prestige is a vital aspect of the recruiting picture.

I agree, Bob, but I'm more inclined to believe 'conference prestige' is a secondary or even tertiary element to the amount of electronic exposure the kids get via DUKE on the front of their duds. Duke is on the television all around the country more than any other team for a reason...it sells. IMO, Coach K, Wojo, Collins et al being able to tell a kid hands down that - should he decide to attend Duke - he'll be getting MAX exposure is on a different planet than using the 'conference prestige' bit.

That being said...I'm in the 'ABC' Camp. Anyone But Carolina. No. Matter. What.

[loran16]

For me, it's a matter of conference pride meeting an ABC (and dislike of Maryland) mentality. So my thoughts on UNC are neutral in the challenge. If they win, the conference wins, and we get a good chance to win the challange. If they lose, UNC loses.

I win either way! In all honesty, I'd probably want UNC to win if it would push the ACC over the B11 6-5.

[Wander]

All this ACC stuff matters for the middle-to-bottom teams. It's largely irrelevant to Duke.

Duke doesn't need the ACC to be the best conference as a recruiting selling point. It doesn't matter if the ACC is the 3rd or 4th best conference one season instead of 1st or 2nd. Honestly, given how often Duke and UNC target the same kids, a Carolina loss to Illinois is probably more likely to help us in recruiting than an ACC loss in the challenge is to hurt us.

As far as selection and seeding goes - again, that's something that Virginia Tech and other bubble teams will need, not Duke. We do what we're supposed to and we'll get a 1 seed, no matter what happens with the rest of the ACC.

Then there's the old argument that playing in a better conference will toughen us up for the tournament. Except I've never seen any actual evidence in any sport that this is ever true.

I still root for ACC teams, mostly. But it's not as important as loyalties/dislike of individual teams. The supposed benefits to Duke from Carolina beating Illinois are negligible, and not worth caring about.

[quota]

This is the line of thinking I cannot agree with. If it means the ACC wins the challenge, I'll gladly root for Carolina. I realize I'm in the minority but conference prestige is important in the big picture.

I think you overestimate the amount of conference prestige the winner of the ACC/Big Televen challenge actually gets.

It's a side show, a way to create early-season college basketball interest. The NCAA Tournament is where 99.9% of conference prestige is built and fortified.

[gotoguy]

All this ACC stuff matters for the middle-to-bottom teams. It's largely irrelevant to Duke.

Duke doesn't need the ACC to be the best conference as a recruiting selling point. It doesn't matter if the ACC is the 3rd or 4th best conference one season instead of 1st or 2nd. Honestly, given how often Duke and UNC target the same kids, a Carolina loss to Illinois is probably more likely to help us in recruiting than an ACC loss in the challenge is to hurt us.

As far as selection and seeding goes - again, that's something that Virginia Tech and other bubble teams will need, not Duke. We do what we're supposed to and we'll get a 1 seed, no matter what happens with the rest of the ACC.


I grew up 60 miles from the Assembly Hall and remember watching its construction from the south stands of Memorial Stadium while attending football games in the early 60's. My father is an UI alum and played as a walk-on for the Illini in the late 40's. The NCAA hoops final in 05 hurt worse than 86 or 99 or 94 for that matter, though of course the 89 semis take the cake. Anyhow I hope the heels get crushed (npi) tomorrow though the Illini strong on the perimeter and with a talented rookie
Then there's the old argument that playing in a better conference will toughen us up for the tournament. Except I've never seen any actual evidence in any sport that this is ever true.

I still root for ACC teams, mostly. But it's not as important as loyalties/dislike of individual teams. The supposed benefits to Duke from Carolina beating Illinois are negligible, and not worth caring about.


Having grown up in central Illinois and being a huge Illini fan(my Dad played basketball there in the late 40's) before attending Duke undergrad, I'll be cheering for the home team. The Illini may have their hands full with Zeller as Tisdale isn't a strong defender but they do have a lot of perimeter talent and keep your eye on Jereme Richmond who played this summer with Kyrie and that guy from Ames on the world Champion junior team. May the heels get crushed (npi). ABC 9F.

[sandinmyshoes]

I think I can disassociate myself enough to hope UNC wins their game for the sake of the conference. I don't think they will, but I can hope so for the sake of the conference.

However, that is a very soft hope. There will be no "rooting" for UNC. I will not cheer their play. I will watch fairly detached. As posted above, it's a bit of a win/win situation. If they lose, I'll be pleased in a sense. If they win, I'll be pleased in a sense.

If they lose and the ACC still wins the challenge, well then, I'll be very pleased.

[Duvall]

You guys is nuts. I'm going to YouTube to study up on quasi-racist fake Native American dance moves (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gOk6KZq73Iw&feature=related) for tomorrow night. Go Illini!

[JohnGalt]

You guys is nuts. I'm going to YouTube to study up on quasi-racist fake Native American dance moves (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gOk6KZq73Iw&feature=related) for tomorrow night. Go Illini!

Please tell me there were tryouts to be Chief Illiniwek. I want to see who got 2nd and 3rd place.

WOW that was horrible.

[UrinalCake]

So a related question is, do you think fans of other ACC schools will root for Duke, especially if the Challenge is tied coming into this final game? I say the majority of fans dislike Duke but have a healthy respect for the school and Coach K and would be willing to cheer for us. But there's a large contingent, including most UNC fans and probably most Maryland fans, that hate us too much and want us to lose no matter what.

With the way the RPI is calculated - where the opponents of the opponents that you face are factored into your strength of schedule - a marquee victory over a highly ranked team would have a multiplicative effect on our conference. Since everyone plays everyone (sort of), it would help out everyone in the ACC for Duke to beat MSU, as they project to be ranked very highly at the end of the season.

[snowdenscold]

On MSU, Izzo is a great coach, obviously, but his teams always seem to start out the gate slow and build over the course of the season. For them to knock us off wouldn't be mindnumbing, but I suspect we'll win comfortably. I'd be more worried about them if the game was in January through March.

Let's just hope this isn't a repeat of the '05 season, where (IIRC) we beat Mich St. in the ACC/B10 challenge, only to have them knock us out in the Sweet 16.

[jv001]

rooting against unc in any game. I just can't see my self rooting for unc and maryland. Well I will root for maryland when they play the tarholes. When we lose a recruit to any ACC team other than the tarholes, it does not hurt that much. But when we lose one to the evil empire, that really hurts. Go Duke!

[AlaskanAssassin]

Hmmm..I wonder who Maryland (and other acc teams) fans root for when Duke and UNC battles.

[DevilHorns]

Hmmm..I wonder who Maryland (and other acc teams) fans root for when Duke and UNC battles.

Probably the underdog.

[dukebluelemur]

VA might be leading if they would just get back on defense... and maybe cut down on some of those bone-headed turnovers.

[DevilHorns]

UVA - 53
Minn(#13) - 52

10:47 to go.

UVA is shooting lights out in the second half. Let's go ACC!

[JasonEvans]

UVA 59-54 lead with 9 mins to go.

Hang on Cavs!!

--Jason "go ACC!" Evans

[theAlaskanBear]

VA up with 740 to go.

[dukebluelemur]

Mmm... bet Tubby is appreciating the free time-outs his clock guys are getting him.

[Bluedevil114]

VA up with 740 to go.

This could be a swing game for the challenge. Many had Minnesota winning this one and had Big Ten winning 6 out of 11 so this could be really important for the ACC and UNC can still lose and we not worry about it.

UVA up ten with six minutes to go.

[JasonEvans]

Now UVA by 14 with 5:30 left in the game.

Wow... stunner.

[dukebluelemur]

Minn has looked as bad as UVA has looked good this half. And UVA looks really good (when they cant miss a shot at any rate).

[dukebluelemur]

No call on what looked like a pretty blatant offensive goal tending by the gophers.

[OldPhiKap]

That walk call was bogus, too. Refs are caught up in the home crowd.

[ChicagoCrazy84]

That NC State game that we lost last year comes to mind as Im watching this game. I feel like UVA is just having one of those games (or halves) when Minnesota has no business losing this game.

I can't complain though, the ACC might have a 1-0 lead!!

[JasonEvans]

Lead now down to 7 with 2:15 left. Hit FTs and I think Virginia will do it.

-Jason

[Bluedevil114]

UVA up 8 points with two minutes to go. Only Maryland could lose this game. GO VIRGINIA!!

[DevilHorns]

That NC State game that we lost last year comes to mind as Im watching this game. I feel like UVA is just having one of those games (or halves) when Minnesota has no business losing this game.

I can't complain though, the ACC might have a 1-0 lead!!

And that was a home game for NC State.

The Cavs are doing this in enemy territory. Wow.

[OldPhiKap]

The Cavs are getting crushed on the boards

[dukebluelemur]

Huge And-One there for Mike Scott, who has been a beast. UVA by 9, 1:28 to go.

[jipops]

Wow, Sampson Jr. looks just like his Dad.

[SilkyJ]

whoa! switched over the 9ers game (I know, its practically a HS game, but I'm a 9ers fan...) but switching back now...

UVA up 8 with 1:13 left. MN at the line...

[SMO]

whoa! switched over the 9ers game (I know, its practically a HS game, but I'm a 9ers fan...) but switching back now...

UVA up 8 with 1:13 left. MN at the line...

UVA > UNC or so it seems

[dukemsu]

Quite a performance by UVA. The Barn is one tough place to get a win, and Tubby's crew is pretty good.

dukemsu

[striker219]

Free throws are having a huge impact on both sides of the court here. What an awesome way to start the challenge, VA knocking off top 20 Minnesota on their home court. And "Minnesota is the real deal". I know this because I've read it on InsideKerlina many, many, many times in the last week.

Keep hitting those free throws guys...

[striker219]

Quick check of the box score (http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=303330135) shows Virginia shooting 10-14 from 3. Not bad.

[Bluedevil114]

Way to go virginia!! Acc is up 1-0. Lets go acc all but unc!

[Duke: A Dynasty]

Virginia with the surprise win 87-79. Great start for the ACC and a good win for Virginia.

[CampbellBlueDevil]

Thank you Virginia... this will give the ACC a chance at an upset of the challenge! It looks like we can mark UNC down for a loss.

[Newton_14]

Wow, I missed all of the excitement. I watched it all until about 14 minutes left and had to switch to kid duty for awhile. UVA was still down when I turned it. The Farakan kid lit it up in the first half, but sounds like the whole team did that after I stopped watching..

Go UVA! We needed this one and I was expecting a loss as I guess most were.

Good to see. You can tell Bennett is a really good coach as they are not exactly loaded with talent or anything.

[DevilHorns]

Free throws are having a huge impact on both sides of the court here. What an awesome way to start the challenge, VA knocking off top 20 Minnesota on their home court. And "Minnesota is the real deal". I know this because I've read it on InsideKerlina many, many, many times in the last week.

Keep hitting those free throws guys...

The only Minnesota games I have seen this year are the UNC one and half of this UVA one. By beating an overrated #8 UNC and an unrated WVU team by 4, they boosted up to a #13 ranking this week. I think a lot of the voters perhaps took that #8 UNC win as an upset even though that game in retrospect seems a wash. Perhaps now Minnesota will float on to the 20s... probably where they belong at this point.

[loran16]

Note to team, defend the 3 against UVA. Seriously.

Great start to the challenge, stealing one of the games that the ACC was unlikely to win.

And lets not forget Ken Pomeroy's comment:


Tonight’s game between Virginia and Minnesota may be the least compelling of the series, but as it’s the Big Ten’s best chance for victory, a win by the Cavaliers would flip the balance of power. The ACC would have a 59.8% of winning the series if Tony Bennett’s team pulls off the upset. More generally, if the ACC somehow gets through the Monday and Tuesday minefield with a draw or better, it’s bad news for the Big Ten, since the ACC has a 59.5% chance of winning at least three games on Wednesday.


Ladies and Gentlemen, the tide has turned. Guess who're the favorites now!

[striker219]

It's fun, after games like this, to go back and see how accurate "experts" were in their predictions. The short version, not very accurate (http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/18986/expert-predictions-accbig-ten-challenge).

[RoyalBlue08]

Great win for UVA. They certainly shot the lights out. I'm not sure how often they will be able to replicate a performance like that, but certainly a big win for them and the conference. Hopefully the Sherrill kid is ok. Didn't look good on TV.

[wilson]

I will not root for unc in any sport under any circumstances.
And I'm kind of rooting for the Big Televen this year. Every time they've won the Challenge, Duke has won the national championship.

[Duke: A Dynasty]

I will not root for unc in any sport under any circumstances.
And I'm kind of rooting for the Big Televen this year. Every time they've won the Challenge, Duke has won the national championship.
Once?

[wilson]

Once?Perhaps you failed to glimpse the tongue that was planted firmly in my cheek.

[Ima Facultiwyfe]

I am going to Champaign for the UNC-Illinois game. There is not a chance in hell I will be cheering for Carolina. Go Illini! Go ACC!

OSKEEWOWOW TO THAT!
Love, Ima

[gw67]

A nice win on the road for Virginia. The announcers mentioned several times that Minnesota was short their point guard. Well, Virginia's point guard, Sammy Zeglinski, is injured as well (I believe that he is expected to return in December). IMO, Bennett has the Hoos moving in the right direction and it appears that he has brought in three nice perimeter players (Harris, Harrell and Baron) this year. Their top rated freshman, Johnson, is being red shirted. Most see Virginia toward the bottom of the ACC this year; however, this win shows that they are capable of being competitive against most ACC teams.

gw67

[elvis14]

So Minn beats UNC and goes from unranked to to 13 or 15th ranked depending on the poll. Minn then turns around and loses at home to UVa. I love that! The pollsters love love love UNC so when Minn beat might #8 (cough cough) UNC they shot up the polls. I mean it was UNC they beat, they must be good, right?

As for the side discussion on here about rooting for UNC if it means the ACC wins the challenge....no way in he11 I'd ever root for UNC. I live in NC surrounded by UNC fans, outnumbered 1000 to 1. 9F all the way!

Besides, as someone has already pointed out, history shows us that when the ACC loses the challenge Duke wins the National Championship ;)

[jv001]

Note to team, defend the 3 against UVA. Seriously.

Great start to the challenge, stealing one of the games that the ACC was unlikely to win.

And lets not forget Ken Pomeroy's comment:


Ladies and Gentlemen, the tide has turned. Guess who're the favorites now!
I guess it's ok for unc to lose now that the tide has turned. Go Duke!

[Mal]

So Minn beats UNC and goes from unranked to to 13 or 15th ranked depending on the poll. Minn then turns around and loses at home to UVa. I love that! The pollsters love love love UNC so when Minn beat might #8 (cough cough) UNC they shot up the polls. I mean it was UNC they beat, they must be good, right?

They were certainly overranked, but there's a touch more to it than that. Minnesota beat UNC and then West Virginia, who's no slouch, to win the tournament in Puerto Rico. And they looked pretty good doing it, so it was not surprising that they were ranked and everyone had them pegged to beat Virginia. Losing to a well-coached team that shoots 10-13 from three, while short your senior leader and most critical defensive piece and getting just seven minutes from your most athletic defender, while a bad loss since it came at home, is not completely shocking.

I liked Tubby Smith's post-game comments: "I don't pay attention to the polls. Maybe the players do" and "That was the most pathetic defensive effort I've seen since I got here."

Good for the ACC - Minnesota can and should drop in the polls, but this will probably be seen as a fairly quality win down the road. We need to bolster the conference's collective resume. Probably won't affect Duke much, but we need to get the ACC's second tier some decent seeding to get someone other than Duke or UNC to the Sweet 16.

[striker219]

Besides, as someone has already pointed out, history shows us that when the ACC loses the challenge Duke wins the National Championship ;)

Sorry folks, but Duke has also won the National Championship following an ACC victory in the Challenge. However, every single time that Duke has won the National Championship three things have happened the following year.

(1) Duke has always won their Challenge game the year following a national title
(2) Carolina has always lost their Challenge game the year following a Duke national title
(3) The ACC has always won the Challenge the year following a Duke national title

Keep the streak alive!

[Olympic Fan]

Sorry folks, but Duke has also won the National Championship following an ACC victory in the Challenge. However, every single time that Duke has won the National Championship three things have happened the following year.

(1) Duke has always won their Challenge game the year following a national title
(2) Carolina has always lost their Challenge game the year following a Duke national title
(3) The ACC has always won the Challenge the year following a Duke national title

Keep the streak alive!

Actually, this is not quite accurate ...

In 1991-92, after winning Duke's first national title in 1991, Duke did beat St. John's (91-81) in the ACC-BIG EAST Challenge. But UNC also won in the Challenge, beating Seton Hall in the Meadowlands (83-54). The ACC did win overall.

And in 1992-93 -- after Duke's second title -- there was no challenge of any kind -- not ACC-Big East nor ACC-Big Ten.

In 2001-02 -- after Duke's third title -- Duke did beat Iowa (80-62) in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge and UNC did lose to Indiana (79-66). The ACC did win overall.

So the trifecta -- Duke wins, UNC loses and the ACC wins overall has only happened once (2001-02) out of three possible times.

Duke is 2-2 in Challenges in the season in which it goes on to win the NCAA title -- losing to Georgetown in 1990-91; beating St. John's in 1991-92; beating Illinois in 2000-01; losing to Wisconsin in 2009-10.

As for the ACC, Duke is also 2-2 when the ACC wins/loses the challenge -- the ACC lost to the Big East in 1990-91; beat the Big East in 1991-92; beat the Big Ten in 2000-01; lost to the Big Ten in 2009-10).

I have to say that it's hard to find any omens in that record.

[striker219]

Actually, this is not quite accurate ...

In 1991-92, after winning Duke's first national title in 1991, Duke did beat St. John's (91-81) in the ACC-BIG EAST Challenge. But UNC also won in the Challenge, beating Seton Hall in the Meadowlands (83-54). The ACC did win overall.

And in 1992-93 -- after Duke's second title -- there was no challenge of any kind -- not ACC-Big East nor ACC-Big Ten.

In 2001-02 -- after Duke's third title -- Duke did beat Iowa (80-62) in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge and UNC did lose to Indiana (79-66). The ACC did win overall.

So the trifecta -- Duke wins, UNC loses and the ACC wins overall has only happened once (2001-02) out of three possible times.

Duke is 2-2 in Challenges in the season in which it goes on to win the NCAA title -- losing to Georgetown in 1990-91; beating St. John's in 1991-92; beating Illinois in 2000-01; losing to Wisconsin in 2009-10.

As for the ACC, Duke is also 2-2 when the ACC wins/loses the challenge -- the ACC lost to the Big East in 1990-91; beat the Big East in 1991-92; beat the Big Ten in 2000-01; lost to the Big Ten in 2009-10).

I have to say that it's hard to find any omens in that record.

This is why I love the DBR.

For the record though, although I didn't make it very clear in my first post, I was referring only to the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, 1999-present. So with that added detail my original point stands.

[Duke: A Dynasty]

GA Tech is doing good but man N'Western is shooting lights out at over 75% right now!! 27 to 38 with lots of 3's going in.

[DukieInBrasil]

it's been really sloppy, especially FSU's control of the ball. I was gonna say that FSU was impressing me with their D but they just let OSU put up 8 strait. At least FSU isn't rolling over, yet.

[Duke: A Dynasty]

39-27 Wake is losing

and

55-37 GA Tech is down

and

20-13 FSU is down

[DukieInBrasil]

it's amazing how inept FSU's offense is, it's like there is no plan as to what to do when they get the ball. The D looks pretty stifling but they are poorly coached on the offensive side of the ball

[loran16]

it's amazing how inept FSU's offense is, it's like there is no plan as to what to do when they get the ball. The D looks pretty stifling but they are poorly coached on the offensive side of the ball

FSU's D is still amazing. But without Alabi, they don't have any consistent scorer. Like at all. Singleton just ISNT a good scorer. He's Toney Douglas without the scoring ability

[theAlaskanBear]

If there was ever any question -- this year is Paul Hewitt's swan-song. Down by 23 points to Northwestern with 13 minutes to go.

[Duke: A Dynasty]

FSU and Ohio State- Ohio State leads at half 28-17

2nd half underway:
GA Tech and N'Western- N'Westerm is up 67-46 with 12 mins left

Wake Forest and Iowa- Wake Forest has made a come back and leads 46-43 with 13 mins left.

[loran16]

If there was ever any question -- this year is Paul Hewitt's swan-song. Down by 23 points to Northwestern with 13 minutes to go.

No that'll be them losing to Mark Fox's resurgent Georgia team.

Also, Wake up 6! WOW!

[77devil]

Also, Wake up 6! WOW!

Looks to be going to the wire. Lot's of empty seats in Joel behind one basket. Guess the undergrads are hitting the books tonight.

[ice-9]

I took Miami giving Mississippi 3, Northwestern giving Georgia Tech 5.5 (sorry ACC!), and Wake Forest rceiving Iowa 1. So far Wake Forest is the game that has me on edge...c'mon WF, how can you give up four offensive rebounds in a row??

Miami and Northwestern (or rather Georgia Tech?) making me look good though.

[PumpkinFunk]

Wake is looking bad on the glass... took them 3 tries to finally get a defensive board and get a possession. Iowa with the ball, 40 seconds to go, shot clock 8 seconds less than the game clock.

[PumpkinFunk]

Amazing shot by Wake there to go ahead with 2.7 seconds to go! Near an NBA 3, contested, and he just nailed it. I wish I knew who it was, though.

[DevilHorns]

Wake's Terrell just went 3 from way downtown. I mean WAY DOWNTOWN. What an absurd shot. Hey, it went in.

Wake wins 76-73!

[fisheyes]

GO WAKE!!! GO ACC!!! What a shot!

[OldPhiKap]

If there was ever any question -- this year is Paul Hewitt's swan-song. Down by 23 points to Northwestern with 13 minutes to go.

The buy-out is something like $7 million. He has a sick contract.

[ice-9]

Amazing shot by Wake there to go ahead with 2.7 seconds to go! Near an NBA 3, contested, and he just nailed it. I wish I knew who it was, though.

JT Terrell is part of Wake Forest's heralded recruiting class. He had a breakout performance with 32 points with 7-11 on 3 pointers...yikes!

[Duke: A Dynasty]

Wake and Virginia two of the teams everyone thought would lose ended up winning! Sweetness! And our one loss is GT by 20 *Ouch*. Lets go FSU and CLemson now!!

[DevilHorns]

FSU and OSU are fantastic at defense.

I'm not sure if Chris Singleton is the lead pick to win the NCAA's Defensive Player of the Year this year, but he should definitely be in the mix.

[SilkyJ]

FSU's interior D is outstanding. If they could shoot a decent clip from 3 they'd be in this game.

Singleton's NBA stock had to go up with this game. He looked more like a 3/4 hybrid last year, but now he looks like a solid NBA 4, solid perimeter skills, a great defender, and a guy who could hold his own at the 5 in spot duty.

He looked gassed at the end of the game, but its not like FSU could really ever afford to rest him.

[ice-9]

Cody Zeller looks impressive in the Illinois game -- he should be the focal point of the UNC offense. I.e. start inside to outside.

I don't know if UNC can play a fast game; they turn it over so much, and most of those turnovers being of the stupid, unforced kind.

Meanwhile, Clemson is stinking it up for the ACC.

[loran16]

Cody Zeller looks impressive in the Illinois game -- he should be the focal point of the UNC offense. I.e. start inside to outside.

I don't know if UNC can play a fast game; they turn it over so much, and most of those turnovers being of the stupid, unforced kind.

Meanwhile, Clemson is stinking it up for the ACC.

Tyler Zeller. Cody is going to Indiana next year. Meanwhile, Zeller now has 3 fouls. And their depth problems emerge.

One of Clemson/UNC needs to win here for the ACC. Otherwise they have no margin of error tomorrow (NC State is NOT winning at the Kohl center).

[JasonEvans]

FSU's D is still amazing. But without Alabi, they don't have any consistent scorer. Like at all. Singleton just ISNT a good scorer. He's Toney Douglas without the scoring ability

Ummm, even with Alabi they would not have a consistent scorer. Dude was a defensive stud, but not a scorer.. not at all.

Now, Toney Douglas is the scorer they sorely miss. If they had found a way to get him one more year of eligibility, they'd be a top 10-15 team this year.

--Jason "Clemson is making a game of it with Michigan-- now down only 10" Evans

[loran16]

Ummm, even with Alabi they would not have a consistent scorer. Dude was a defensive stud, but not a scorer.. not at all.

Now, Toney Douglas is the scorer they sorely miss. If they had found a way to get him one more year of eligibility, they'd be a top 10-15 team this year.

--Jason "Clemson is making a game of it with Michigan-- now down only 10" Evans

He did average 11.7 points per game. Singleton only averaged 10 last year.

[ice-9]

End of the first half is typical UNC intelligence. With the shot clock reset with 6-7 seconds left on the clock, that UNC player heaved a quick shot instead of running down the clock and taking the last shot. Instead of UNC being down 1-4 points, Illinois had enough time to set up an open 3 which goes in; UNC now down by 7.

[JasonEvans]

Clemson is really bad on offense... almost as bad as FSU.

-Jason "the ACC is doing a nice job of blowing the challenge" Evans

[Acymetric]

The buy-out is something like $7 million. He has a sick contract.

How many years does he have left? A quick google search yielded unclear results, so if someone on here already knows that'd make things a lot simpler.

[Channing]

watching UNC vs. Illinois I am shocked at how ineffective, and flat out bad, LDII actually is. He seems to turn the ball over every single time he touches it. How were the recruiting pundits so off on him. Wasn't he a McDonalds AA (although I think he ended up ranked down in the 70s or 80s). However, he isnt even a neutral player, he is a net negative.

[RoyalBlue08]

watching UNC vs. Illinois I am shocked at how ineffective, and flat out bad, LDII actually is. He seems to turn the ball over every single time he touches it. How were the recruiting pundits so off on him. Wasn't he a McDonalds AA (although I think he ended up ranked down in the 70s or 80s). However, he isnt even a neutral player, he is a net negative.

If he was McD's, it will hardly be the first or last time someone on that team did not pan out. What shocks me more is it he seems to get worse and worse the more he plays.

[ice-9]

What I don't understand is how Roy continues to play the guy. What kind of signal does that send to the rest of the team?

Roy needs to take a look at how we played last year...use Barnes the way we used Singler (inside, outside, cuts, jumpers) vs asking him to always create from the perimeter. More emphasis on the inside than we did last year with Zeller and Henson, but a similarly slower, half court game with a focus on defense and rebounding. Rotate the best jump shooters at the 1 and 2 (Strickland, Bullock and Marshall?). You don't really need a playmaker at the 1, just someone who can get it into the half court without turning it over.

Roy has bigs who can run, but he's got to realize he doesn't have the ball handlers who can run with them.

[Acymetric]

Woah that 3 at about 14:10 should have been a 2...looked like his foot was way over the line to me.

As for LDII, I've been telling people those things since he started playing. Maybe he would be a good player in another system, but he doesn't fit here at all.

[Mike Corey]

Agreed with the above.

Kendall Marshall is a very good passer; he brings a steadiness, it would appear, to the dUNCe offense. The more he plays, the better the Heels will get.

It's a little mind-boggling--or "mind-bottling" as they say in Chapel Hell--that the Heels haven't figured out how to get Humble Harry going. Settling for perimeter shots won't get it done.

[Channing]

Woah that 3 at about 14:10 should have been a 2...looked like his foot was way over the line to me.

As for LDII, I've been telling people those things since he started playing. Maybe he would be a good player in another system, but he doesn't fit here at all.

I was wondering if they were going to go back and check that - it seemed obvious to me.

[loran16]

Roy needs to take a look at how we played last year...use Barnes the way we used Singler (inside, outside, cuts, jumpers) vs asking him to always create from the perimeter. More emphasis on the inside than we did last year with Zeller and Henson, but a similarly slower, half court game with a focus on defense and rebounding. Rotate the best jump shooters at the 1 and 2 (Strickland, Bullock and Marshall?). You don't really need a playmaker at the 1, just someone who can get it into the half court without turning it over.

Roy has bigs who can run, but he's got to realize he doesn't have the ball handlers who can run with them.

Roy doesn't have the willingness (or probably the ability) to guide a team in a slow down offense. He can't slow down. Your right, that might help. But still.

(Also, UNC is really thin in the front court anyhow this year. Last year Duke was deep in the front court, and even this year, Duke is deeper in the front court than Carolina. It means they can't take as many risks, as seen by this game where Zeller had 3 fouls early in the first half).

[wilson]

If there was ever any question -- this year is Paul Hewitt's swan-song.If not this week...

[wilson]

How many years does he have left? A quick google search yielded unclear results, so if someone on here already knows that'd make things a lot simpler.It's a six-year contract that automatically renews every spring. At the end of every season, so long as he is retained, another year is added to the end of the contract, meaning that he perpetually has six years remaining...at a contractually stipulated minimum of $1.35 million per. So essentially, his buyout is just north of $8 million. The AD who negotiated this contract, Dave Braine (How's that for irony?), should be shot.
More here (note some coarse language): http://firepaulhewitt.wordpress.com/2010/01/07/the-paul-hewitt-contract/

[snowdenscold]

So it appears the ACC has a 4-2 deficit to overcome on Wednesday. They have to go 4-1 or 5-0. While unlikely, not all hope is lost yet.

I think Duke, NC State, VA Tech and Maryland all have a shot at winning (not necessarily saying they will, just that they have a shot). BC less of a chance. Still, the odds that at least 4 of those happen aren't good. But that's why we play the games, right?!

I'm excited for tomorrow (unless we do something terrible like go 1-4 to end the challenge 3 to 8).

Snowden's "http://thumbnails.truveo.com/0018/B1/6A/B16AAA11EFD5B733A07C18_Large.jpg" cold

[Olympic Fan]

So it appears the ACC has a 4-2 deficit to overcome on Wednesday. They have to go 4-1 or 5-0. While unlikely, not all hope is lost yet.

I think Duke, NC State, VA Tech and Maryland all have a shot at winning (not necessarily saying they will, just that they have a shot). BC less of a chance. Still, the odds that at least 4 of those happen aren't good. But that's why we play the games, right?!

I'm excited for tomorrow (unless we do something terrible like go 1-4 to end the challenge 3 to 8).


Wow, your thinking has me baffled. You think NC State has a shot (at Wisconsin, which almost never loses at home ... with State's best player unlikely to play) and you think BC, which is coming off two decent wins over Cal and Texas &M, losing at home to a bad Indiana team (they are 6-0 but haven't played on the road or against a top 140 team yet).

FWIW, Pomeroy rates Duke (87 percent) and BC (74 percent) as the ACC's two strongest favorites Wednesday night, while rating Wisconsin (80 percent) as the biggest Big East favorite.

The ACC needs to win the two games it is heavily favored in (Duke and BC), then win the two games that it is only a slight underdog in -- Purdue is 52 percent favorite at Virginia Tech (virtually a tossup) and Penn State is a 56 percent favorite at home against Maryland.

The odds are pretty good that we get one of the two ... but that would just leave us on the short end of a 6-5 Big Ten win.

[SuperTurkey]

Wisconsin (80 percent) as the biggest Big East favorite.

Wow, conference expansion has gotten crazy! :D

[loran16]

Wow, your thinking has me baffled. You think NC State has a shot (at Wisconsin, which almost never loses at home ... with State's best player unlikely to play) and you think BC, which is coming off two decent wins over Cal and Texas &M, losing at home to a bad Indiana team (they are 6-0 but haven't played on the road or against a top 140 team yet).

FWIW, Pomeroy rates Duke (87 percent) and BC (74 percent) as the ACC's two strongest favorites Wednesday night, while rating Wisconsin (80 percent) as the biggest Big East favorite.

The ACC needs to win the two games it is heavily favored in (Duke and BC), then win the two games that it is only a slight underdog in -- Purdue is 52 percent favorite at Virginia Tech (virtually a tossup) and Penn State is a 56 percent favorite at home against Maryland.

The odds are pretty good that we get one of the two ... but that would just leave us on the short end of a 6-5 Big Ten win.

Agreed. Wisconsin doesnt' lose at the Kohl Center very often, if at all (we saw that last year).* NC State could beat Wisconsin on a neutral floor...but not at Wisconsin.

*My theory on this? Wisconsin is the only team that uses a certain brand of basketball in their home games (http://thequad.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/03/04/is-home-court-advantage-really-about-the-ball/). Apparently the feel of different balls does make a good bit of difference.

[Acymetric]

It's a six-year contract that automatically renews every spring. At the end of every season, so long as he is retained, another year is added to the end of the contract, meaning that he perpetually has six years remaining...at a contractually stipulated minimum of $1.35 million per. So essentially, his buyout is just north of $8 million. The AD who negotiated this contract, Dave Braine (How's that for irony?), should be shot.
More here (note some coarse language): http://firepaulhewitt.wordpress.com/2010/01/07/the-paul-hewitt-contract/

Ok...that's what I thought I was reading when I googled, but I thought that couldn't possibly be correct and assumed I was understanding things wrong. That is without a doubt the craziest contract I've ever seen. Why design it that way? Why not just make him coach for life and have like a 2 mil buyout or something? Seriously, was there nobody else looking over his shoulder to say "hey, maybe this isn't a great idea?"

[dukebluelemur]

What I don't understand is how Roy continues to play the guy. What kind of signal does that send to the rest of the team?



The Free Kendall Marshall Haiku thread on IC is pretty funny...

[ice-9]

Wow, your thinking has me baffled. You think NC State has a shot (at Wisconsin, which almost never loses at home ... with State's best player unlikely to play) and you think BC, which is coming off two decent wins over Cal and Texas &M, losing at home to a bad Indiana team (they are 6-0 but haven't played on the road or against a top 140 team yet).

FWIW, Pomeroy rates Duke (87 percent) and BC (74 percent) as the ACC's two strongest favorites Wednesday night, while rating Wisconsin (80 percent) as the biggest Big East favorite.

The ACC needs to win the two games it is heavily favored in (Duke and BC), then win the two games that it is only a slight underdog in -- Purdue is 52 percent favorite at Virginia Tech (virtually a tossup) and Penn State is a 56 percent favorite at home against Maryland.

The odds are pretty good that we get one of the two ... but that would just leave us on the short end of a 6-5 Big Ten win.


Maryland is a much better team that Kenpom gives it credit for. Their only two losses were to Pittsburgh and Illinois and both were relatively close games. Penn St on the other hand lost by 13 points to a Mississippi team that Miami just dismantled. On a neutral court, I would take Maryland any day. The only thing that keeps this interesting is that Maryland has to play at Penn St -- the Terps haven't played a true road game this year so while they have played well on a neutral court, it remains to be seen how they handle the pressure away.

The real "swing" game to me is Purdue vs. Virginia Tech. Purdue is more highly lauded between the two but lost in their first real test of the season against Richmond. Virginia Tech didn't look good against Kansas St or UNLV but did beat a solid Oklahoma St team. Can VT play up to its preseason ACC #2 expectations and get a nonconference win that they're going to need? Does Purdue miss Hummel and its seniors that much?

I expect Maryland to win comfortably and for the VT-Purdue game to go down to the wire in a low scoring, defensive slugfest. If VT wins, I say the ACC pulls out with an unexpected 6-5 victory. But my gut says the Hokies choke.

[Olympic Fan]

Wow, conference expansion has gotten crazy! :D

Mea culpa ... but when the league that calls itself the Big East includes teams in Fort Worth and Chicago and Milwaukee, while the league that calls itself the Big 10 has 12 teams and the league that calls itself the Big 12 has 10 teams ... why don't they just switch names?

Well, I can be forgiven a bit of confusion can't I?

[davekay1971]

NC State is the biggest long shot for an ACC win tomorrow. State has actually played pretty well this year and played G'town evenly for 30 minutes before showing their youth and falling apart. But asking them to take down a quality Wisconsin team that simply doesn't lose at home, without Tracy Smith in the lineup, is too much. I expect State to play hard and the game may be close, but I doubt they can get the job done in Wisconsin. Still, for those who haven't watched him play yet, enjoy Lorenzo Brown, especially if State can get out in transition some.

I expect Maryland and BC to win, and VPI-Purdue is a toss-up to me. I'm not even going to make a Duke-MSU prediction for fear of jinxing us.

In short, Clemson's bad loss to Michigan pretty much locks this thing up for the Big10, despite Wake and Virginia's suprising wins.

[snowdenscold]

Wow, your thinking has me baffled. You think NC State has a shot (at Wisconsin, which almost never loses at home ... with State's best player unlikely to play) and you think BC, which is coming off two decent wins over Cal and Texas &M, losing at home to a bad Indiana team (they are 6-0 but haven't played on the road or against a top 140 team yet).

FWIW, Pomeroy rates Duke (87 percent) and BC (74 percent) as the ACC's two strongest favorites Wednesday night, while rating Wisconsin (80 percent) as the biggest Big East favorite.

The ACC needs to win the two games it is heavily favored in (Duke and BC), then win the two games that it is only a slight underdog in -- Purdue is 52 percent favorite at Virginia Tech (virtually a tossup) and Penn State is a 56 percent favorite at home against Maryland.

The odds are pretty good that we get one of the two ... but that would just leave us on the short end of a 6-5 Big Ten win.

I had forgotten State was w/o Smith - yeah I suppose that changes things a bit. And I'll concede that Wisconsin is certainly tough at home (speaking of which, it's funny to think that last year WE could have swung the challenge from an B10 win to an ACC win - oh well)

Maybe I should give BC more credit. @ Wisconsin I guess isn't a bad loss, but the Yale loss (which is part of the opening-season funk the ACC was in) just stood out. Here's hoping Indiana's inflated winning-streak comes to an end...

[loran16]

Maryland is a much better team that Kenpom gives it credit for. Their only two losses were to Pittsburgh and Illinois and both were relatively close games. Penn St on the other hand lost by 13 points to a Mississippi team that Miami just dismantled. On a neutral court, I would take Maryland any day. The only thing that keeps this interesting is that Maryland has to play at Penn St -- the Terps haven't played a true road game this year so while they have played well on a neutral court, it remains to be seen how they handle the pressure away.

The real "swing" game to me is Purdue vs. Virginia Tech. Purdue is more highly lauded between the two but lost in their first real test of the season against Richmond. Virginia Tech didn't look good against Kansas St or UNLV but did beat a solid Oklahoma St team. Can VT play up to its preseason ACC #2 expectations and get a nonconference win that they're going to need? Does Purdue miss Hummel and its seniors that much?

I expect Maryland to win comfortably and for the VT-Purdue game to go down to the wire in a low scoring, defensive slugfest. If VT wins, I say the ACC pulls out with an unexpected 6-5 victory. But my gut says the Hokies choke.

Except while Maryland's only two losses aren't bad losses, they have two "bad" wins....their performances against Elon and CofC, BOTH AT HOME, were poor resulting in their efficiency #s taking a hit.

Penn State is also a better team than you give credit. At home, they've won every game convincingly. Granted, over cupcakes, but their only loss is on the road, and their O did play well that game (their D did not).

Maryland is being overrated, Penn State underrated, and this is a road game for the Terps. Thus the toss-up status.

[UrinalCake]

Ok...that's what I thought I was reading when I googled, but I thought that couldn't possibly be correct and assumed I was understanding things wrong. That is without a doubt the craziest contract I've ever seen. Why design it that way? Why not just make him coach for life and have like a 2 mil buyout or something? Seriously, was there nobody else looking over his shoulder to say "hey, maybe this isn't a great idea?"

These types of revolving contracts used to be common for established coaches in the ACC. I'm pretty sure Coach K had a similar deal for many years, until he was given a "lifetime contract." It's a little unusual that Hewitt was given one with so little experience under his belt, but it's not like this is the first time it's ever happened.

[Faison1]

I may be wrong, but watching last night's games made me realize it's going to take a few years for the ACC to be really strong again.

Hewitt, Hamilton need to be canned. Losing to NW by 20+ is just not acceptable. And does Hamilton just not practice offense? FSU's D is pretty impressive, but for goodness sakes, if you can't score, you can't win!

[The Gordog]

Pomeroy has the games as the following (home teams in caps, and chance of an ACC win in %s):
Monday
MINNESOTA d. Virginia (12%)
Tuesday
Iowa d. WAKE FOREST (41%)
NORTHWESTERN d. GTech (31%)
Ohio State d. FSU (31%)
CLEMSON d. Michigan (86%)
ILLINOIS d. North Carolina (30%)
Wednesday
BOSTON COLLEGE d. Indiana (68%)
WISCONSIN d. NCState (18%)
VA TECH d. Purdue (51%)
PENN STATE d. Maryland (48%)
DUKE d. Michigan State (87%)

Final Pomeroy total: Big 10 7, ACC 4.


Pomeroy gives large home court edges. Thus when #2 plays #5 at #2, it results in a very favorable line for #2.

Thus the system predicts a 12 point win.


hmmm...9 out of 11 home teams winning seems a bit skewed. Granted, those two coin flips could go either way, so it seems like Pomeroy has given benefit of the doubt to home team.

And yea I think it'll be a lot closer than 87% chance win for Duke over MSU. I'd say 70%.

Dudes. The "dork" polls do not have enough data to be correclated yet. Thus they are mere estimates.


So a related question is, do you think fans of other ACC schools will root for Duke, especially if the Challenge is tied coming into this final game? I say the majority of fans dislike Duke but have a healthy respect for the school and Coach K and would be willing to cheer for us. But there's a large contingent, including most UNC fans and probably most Maryland fans, that hate us too much and want us to lose no matter what.

With the way the RPI is calculated - where the opponents of the opponents that you face are factored into your strength of schedule - a marquee victory over a highly ranked team would have a multiplicative effect on our conference. Since everyone plays everyone (sort of), it would help out everyone in the ACC for Duke to beat MSU, as they project to be ranked very highly at the end of the season.

I think most everyone roots against Duke. Possible exceptions would be BC fans, Miami fans, maybe a few Wake fans who also hate being ridiculed by in-state knuckleheads who didn't even attend UNC-CH. The majority of fans of the public-school ACC teams hate our guts in general. Although I've noticed that since VA Tech fans haven't been in the league when we were down they have more respect than most.

[gw67]

Some observations after watching parts of the five games last night:

• It is clear to these old eyes why the ACC only has one team in the top 25. Because none of the teams other than Duke deserve it! This year’s ACC may resemble last year’s PAC 10 and only get 2-3 bids to the NCAAT.
• Ohio State and Illinois are clearly the best two teams that have played to date. UNC, Clemson and Florida State appear to be pretenders rather than contenders although it is still early in the season.
• Northwestern and Michigan showed that good team play (taking care of the ball and sharing it, team defense and good shooting) will beat AAU ball early in the season. GT made some nice highlight plays but they were soundly beaten by a better coached team.
• Wake won at home against a weak Iowa team because their point guard went one-on-one in the second half and was very hot, and there may have been a little home cooking. The point guard, Terrell, had one assist and six turnovers so the team was probably better off having him jack it up from downtown rather than run their offense. Hopefully, they get their regular point guard back soon.
• I haven’t seen the Heels play much but they certainly didn’t look like a quality team. I like Zeller and Henson but their perimeter play really needs to improve if they want to make the NCAAT.
• Tonight, Virginia Tech gets another chance to show that they are a quality team at home against Perdue; NC State and Maryland have away games although I expect the Terps to pull out a close one against Penn State. BC has been playing well lately and may be able to beat Indiana at home. I expect the Devils to easily beat the Spartans at home. Izzo’s teams often start slowly and they will be going up against a high quality team that is playing really well and is playing in comfy CIS. Final is either 7-4 or 6-5 in favor of Big Ten.

gw67

[flyingdutchdevil]

Some observations after watching parts of the five games last night:

• It is clear to these old eyes why the ACC only has one team in the top 25. Because none of the teams other than Duke deserve it! This year’s ACC may resemble last year’s PAC 10 and only get 2-3 bids to the NCAAT.
• Ohio State and Illinois are clearly the best two teams that have played to date. UNC, Clemson and Florida State appear to be pretenders rather than contenders although it is still early in the season.
• Northwestern and Michigan showed that good team play (taking care of the ball and sharing it, team defense and good shooting) will beat AAU ball early in the season. GT made some nice highlight plays but they were soundly beaten by a better coached team.
• Wake won at home against a weak Iowa team because their point guard went one-on-one in the second half and was very hot, and there may have been a little home cooking. The point guard, Terrell, had one assist and six turnovers so the team was probably better off having him jack it up from downtown rather than run their offense. Hopefully, they get their regular point guard back soon.
• I haven’t seen the Heels play much but they certainly didn’t look like a quality team. I like Zeller and Henson but their perimeter play really needs to improve if they want to make the NCAAT.
• Tonight, Virginia Tech gets another chance to show that they are a quality team at home against Perdue; NC State and Maryland have away games although I expect the Terps to pull out a close one against Penn State. BC has been playing well lately and may be able to beat Indiana at home. I expect the Devils to easily beat the Spartans at home. Izzo’s teams often start slowly and they will be going up against a high quality team that is playing really well and is playing in comfy CIS. Final is either 7-4 or 6-5 in favor of Big Ten.

gw67

Agree with your points above. The ACC is terribly week this year. The Big East, Big 10, and Big 12 are clearly better conferences. Hell, I'd even say that Conference Football would give the ACC a run for its money this year!

I still think that the ACC can pull off the Challenge, but I'd be surprised. Duke is the only team playing today that is a heavy favorite. I would put VT on that list but they are so incredibly inconsistent. Maryland is still trying to figure itself out. BC is an interesting team and may actually be one of the better ACC teams this year. NC State is still very young and without T. Smith, so anything can happen.

Don't think that Duke will be undefeated in the season, but I do think that this year's ACC is a better year than most to for Duke to accomplish this feat.

[wilson]

Ok...that's what I thought I was reading when I googled, but I thought that couldn't possibly be correct and assumed I was understanding things wrong. That is without a doubt the craziest contract I've ever seen. Why design it that way? Why not just make him coach for life and have like a 2 mil buyout or something? Seriously, was there nobody else looking over his shoulder to say "hey, maybe this isn't a great idea?"I'm totally mystified too. I can't even come up with any poor reasons to give someone that contract, let alone a good reason. $8 million is no small potatoes anywhere, especially a place where basketball is still viewed by the majority of the alumni and fanbase as second banana to football. GA Tech may well be looking at the better part of a decade in the doldrums absent a rich alum who really wants it to be otherwise.

[JasonEvans]

Now everyone knows why Tech was so upset that Hewitt did not take the St John's job. The only ways to get rid of him are--

1) He retires - but that is at least a decade+ away as Hewitt is 47 years old
2) Someone else hires him - given his performance lately, that is hard to imagine and it will be tough for anyone to offer him a better deal than he currently has at Tech
3) Tech buys him out - with a price tag of something like 8-9 million

There is one other way... Tech fires him for cause. If there was a significant recruiting scandal of some sort or Hewitt accidentally tweets pictures of himself in bed with a dead woman or something like that I could see them firing him for cause.

So, short of some major scandal or spending big bucks, the dude has major job security. Sigh.

--Jason "I wonder if some alum will pay a recruit just to create a scandal and get rid of Hewitt ;)" Evans

[flyingdutchdevil]

...or Hewitt accidentally tweets pictures of himself in bed with a dead woman or something like that I could see them firing him for cause.

You are disturbingly creative.

That's all I'm going to say about this.

[just_wondering]

GW67

Is the mascot for Perdue the Broilermakers?



Some observations after watching parts of the five games last night:

• It is clear to these old eyes why the ACC only has one team in the top 25. Because none of the teams other than Duke deserve it! This year’s ACC may resemble last year’s PAC 10 and only get 2-3 bids to the NCAAT.
• Ohio State and Illinois are clearly the best two teams that have played to date. UNC, Clemson and Florida State appear to be pretenders rather than contenders although it is still early in the season.
• Northwestern and Michigan showed that good team play (taking care of the ball and sharing it, team defense and good shooting) will beat AAU ball early in the season. GT made some nice highlight plays but they were soundly beaten by a better coached team.
• Wake won at home against a weak Iowa team because their point guard went one-on-one in the second half and was very hot, and there may have been a little home cooking. The point guard, Terrell, had one assist and six turnovers so the team was probably better off having him jack it up from downtown rather than run their offense. Hopefully, they get their regular point guard back soon.
• I haven’t seen the Heels play much but they certainly didn’t look like a quality team. I like Zeller and Henson but their perimeter play really needs to improve if they want to make the NCAAT.
• Tonight, Virginia Tech gets another chance to show that they are a quality team at home against Perdue; NC State and Maryland have away games although I expect the Terps to pull out a close one against Penn State. BC has been playing well lately and may be able to beat Indiana at home. I expect the Devils to easily beat the Spartans at home. Izzo’s teams often start slowly and they will be going up against a high quality team that is playing really well and is playing in comfy CIS. Final is either 7-4 or 6-5 in favor of Big Ten.

gw67

[loran16]

If VaTech loses, aside from us losing the challenge, do they have any good wins on the year?

Seriously, the knock on them the last 2 years was a bad SoS. If they lose to Purdue, their only good win in the nonconference slate will be Neutral floor vs oklahoma state. And that's not a great win. (Unless Penn State actually does well in the B11 this year).

And the ACC won't help their schedule. If they don't go at least 9-7, they could get left out again. And even then...

[DukieInBrasil]

State looks terrible vs. Wisconsin. Mostly it looks like they just don't care about winning the game. They're down by 23 at the half, they're getting more than doubled up. Leslie had consecutive trips down the court where he lost the ball by being careless. The two trips before that State's PG either lost the ball or took a horrible shot.

[Cameron]

Watching IU-BC. BC is by no means a dominant power -- the Eagles are only up doubles because they are exercising a historic Hoosier staple, lights out shooting from the perimeter -- but right now it looks like BC is entertaining a group of wrestlers shooting buckets after the varsity game. Where are you, Indiana? I'm being melodramatic, but a couple of stretches have left me in awe in where the Hoosier program stands today. Hey, Carolina, at least you're not Indiana. And, Indiana, at least you're not the television show Blossom.

As for the Challenge itself, I think it's going to come down to Michigan State and us. Heading into the evening at 2-4, we can afford obviously just one misstep. That I think will come in the form of N.C. State at Wisconsin. After all, the Badgers are almost unbeatable at Kohl. We found that out a year ago at this time. (But damned if Dre didn't almost pull a Reggie Miller.) I like Va Tech with Delaney in front of the home crowd, but it will likely come in the final minutes of what will undoubtedly be a grinder the entire way. Maryland should have the advantage in State College with Gary on the sideline and the Terrapins always play well in the event (8-3 overall, 2-1 in Big Ten home-arenas). And if BC can't told off this patch of Indiana minors, then dear God.

Cannot wait for tip!

[Faison1]

The ACC SUUUUUUUX this year.

[BigZ]

The ACC is horrible. I think the only team that could beat Duke is VT b/c they are the only other team with a star, you need a star who can have a monster game to beat Duke and VT is the only team with another star.

[davekay1971]

This is by far the worst I've seen State play this year. They are completely out of synch, and the last 5 minutes of the first half they looked like they'd given up. This is not the same team that played G'town evenly for 30+ minutes. Sidney needs to rip their rear ends and appeal to them to have some kind of pride. They're going to lose tonight. Lose with defensive intensity, at least.

Hopefully Md, BC, and VaTech can get the job done in games they should win. Then it's just up to us!

[ice-9]

The real "swing" game to me is Purdue vs. Virginia Tech. Purdue is more highly lauded between the two but lost in their first real test of the season against Richmond. Virginia Tech didn't look good against Kansas St or UNLV but did beat a solid Oklahoma St team. Can VT play up to its preseason ACC #2 expectations and get a nonconference win that they're going to need? Does Purdue miss Hummel and its seniors that much?

I expect Maryland to win comfortably and for the VT-Purdue game to go down to the wire in a low scoring, defensive slugfest. If VT wins, I say the ACC pulls out with an unexpected 6-5 victory. But my gut says the Hokies choke.

Right so far with VT down 21-25...c'mon Hokies prove me wrong! Get one for the ACC!!

[jipops]

I'll actually be pulling for Maryland to get the W tonight. The ACC showing has been disappointing. I wouldn't be surprised if after tonight a lot of people start to feel that Maryland is the 2nd best team in the ACC, which unfortunately wouldn't be saying much. But Gary's teams always come to play.

[Billy Dat]

The ACC SUUUUUUUX this year.

Which SUUUUUUUX for us because it will be tough to get better. Maybe we can schedule some scrimmages with the Bobcats?

[Nrrrrvous]

Right so far with VT down 21-25...c'mon Hokies prove me wrong! Get one for the ACC!!

14:29 to go

[NashvilleDevil]

When was the last time the Badgers put up 80+ in basketball? Not watching the game but State was not even at 40 points when I last checked.

[RoyalBlue08]

Bob Knight:Shot Fake::Christopher Walken:cowbell

[FerryFor50]

Yeesh.

I don't know if it's that Wisconsin is that good, or if State isn't that good, or if it was just an anomaly. But a 39 point blowout hurts. State needs Tracy Smith back in a bad way...

[burns15]

sidenote... MD's jerseys are atrocious

[AlaskanAssassin]

sidenote... MD's jerseys are atrocious

Haha, thats exactly what I was thinking when flipped to the game. They should have worn their red jerseys.

[ice-9]

C'mon VT, lousy offensive foul!

1 point lead with 1 minute left to go...

[NSDukeFan]

C'mon VT, lousy offensive foul!

1 point lead with 1 minute left to go...

Good game to watch. Slow game, but both teams value possession and have been moving the ball around to get good shots. Both teams have missed a bunch, but it has been good to listen to as well, with Coach Knight providing commentary.

[ice-9]

Not very impressed with Delaney this game...blown layups, bad turnovers, doesn't pass enough, missed a key free throw that would have put them up by 3...not a good game for the guy at all.

Just checked the boxscore -- wow, 2-16 shooting. Let Jeff Allen take the last shot methinks?? Now the game goes into OT and I don't think VT will pull it out especially with Davila fouled out.

[ice-9]

originally posted by ice-9
the real "swing" game to me is purdue vs. Virginia tech. Purdue is more highly lauded between the two but lost in their first real test of the season against richmond. Virginia tech didn't look good against kansas st or unlv but did beat a solid oklahoma st team. Can vt play up to its preseason acc #2 expectations and get a nonconference win that they're going to need? Does purdue miss hummel and its seniors that much?

I expect maryland to win comfortably and for the vt-purdue game to go down to the wire in a low scoring, defensive slugfest. If vt wins, i say the acc pulls out with an unexpected 6-5 victory. But my gut says the hokies choke.

right so far with vt down 21-25...c'mon hokies prove me wrong! Get one for the acc!!

My Gut 1, Chokies 0

[SMO]

KI looks like the best player on the floor right now. Almost gives me chills.

[DukieInBrasil]

yeah, it looked like they gave up about 14 into the 1st half. They looked almost like zombies out there.

[Slackerb]

I watched the game and here's my observations:

You have 7 freshmen/sophomores playing in their first real road test of the season.

Mix that in with:
A veteran and well coached Wisconsin team.
A Wisconsin team that could not miss, especially from 3.
A State team that shot very poorly, even with the bad shot selection, even open shots didn't go down.
Fouls. Howell and Vandenburg foul out early to mid second half...without Smith, that leaves only 1 big body on the roster. Painter, the other big, has to play the entire second half almost with 4 fouls and no one else to relieve him.

While it wouldn't change the outcome, this game would been VERY different if the fouls were more evenly called. Wisconsin went an entire half worth of basketball, almost 27 minutes (with halftime in between) with no fouls getting called....while State racked them up. During this same time, Wisconsin went on a 15-0 run to close the first half. The foul descrepancy was 21-11, but it was about 16-4 until midway through the first second half...and Wisconsin doesn't really drive to the basket hard or dish it inside a lot. It was baffling and the people I was watching with agreed...

After that run midway to the end of the first half, it was already a blowout...and State never could recover.

A point of note: halfway through the first half, Lowe didn't like what CJ Leslie was doing and how he wasn't responding to him (he was playing one on one ball and trying to take over), so he sat him for 18 minutes of the game. He only put him back in when Vandenburg fouled out and he had to.

Good lesson, or point of contention?

Let's hope this is a learning experience and just chalk this one up to a bad night.

[ice-9]

Right so far with VT down 21-25...c'mon Hokies prove me wrong! Get one for the ACC!!


Haha, thats exactly what I was thinking when flipped to the game. They should have worn their red jerseys.


Maryland making me looking good -- I thought they'd win comfortably, but 23 points? That's domination! Maryland looks like a solid NCAA tournament team.

[77devil]

Maryland making me looking good -- I thought they'd win comfortably, but 23 points? That's domination! Maryland looks like a solid NCAA tournament team.

Agreed, but when Greenberg is whining about missing the tournament again, he can look back on today

[JasonEvans]

The question for Va Tech-- is it better to beat bad teams or lose close games to good ones?

Maryland is clearly the #2 team in the conference thus far. A lot of the teams that were expected to challenge for that role have shown themselves to have very serious issues (especially on offense where Va Tech, Clemson, and FSU look godawful).

-Jason "ACC coulda won this... ahh well" Evans

[nocilla]

When was the last time the Badgers put up 80+ in basketball? Not watching the game but State was not even at 40 points when I last checked.

I wonder who is averaging more points, the Wisc basketball team or the football team?

[Slackerb]

One thing to keep in mind RE: "no one looks like they can beat Duke in the ACC", is that while they looked horrible and still woudl have lost, State is without it's best player. And that offense is designed to run through Tracy Smith.

Still, a horrible showing by the Pack.