Austin Rivers and the NBA lockout

[theAlaskanBear]

I know I am probably reading too much into this, but in his journal entry that the front page links to --

http://duke.scout.com/2/1025197.html

-- Austin goes on to state "when" not "if" the NBA locks out:


I think he could play in the [NBA] now. I don't think I'll get to play with him, but when the NBA locks out I think it could give a lot of guys something to think about. If Kyrie did end up staying I think our team would be incredibly tough next year with the backcourt rotation we'd have.

I am just wondering if Austin is falling for all the public NBA chatter about a lockout, or if his connections (Doc & Hill, etc) to the NBA provide him with inside information.

I thought the lockout is just a bit of negotiating strategy, and that push comes to shove there will be NBA in 2011-2012. The NBA is going through a bit of a renaissance and it would be beyond stupid for the owners to initiate a lockout. So it's really disheartening to read Rivers' comments, because I assume he has good info.

Mods feel free to move this thread, I thought about putting it in the NBA thread but wasn't sure...

[sagegrouse]

I know I am probably reading too much into this, but in his journal entry that the front page links to --

http://duke.scout.com/2/1025197.html

-- Austin goes on to state "when" not "if" the NBA locks out:



I am just wondering if Austin is falling for all the public NBA chatter about a lockout, or if his connections (Doc & Hill, etc) to the NBA provide him with inside information.

I thought the lockout is just a bit of negotiating strategy, and that push comes to shove there will be NBA in 2011-2012. The NBA is going through a bit of a renaissance and it would be beyond stupid for the owners to initiate a lockout. So it's really disheartening to read Rivers' comments, because I assume he has good info.

Mods feel free to move this thread, I thought about putting it in the NBA thread but wasn't sure...

I am not following it that closely, but the NBA dispute is real and potentially ugly. The owners are claiming big losses and talking about rolling salaries back by a substantial percentage, even holding out the threat of reducing the number of franchises (i.e., jobs). I doubt the players give on such major issues without a big fight, probably involving a work stoppage (owner lockout?).

Now the NFL new labor agreement is on roughly the same schedule as the NBA, but most people I have read think that there is plenty to money to go around plus the potential of two more paychecks (i.e., games) and that, therefore, agreement is likely.

I am sure fans will get to read or hear more about these two sets of negotiations than they want.

sagegrouse

[Lord Ash]

You aren't the only one to have caught that comment. I cannot help but think that Austin is probably a LOT more in touch with how things will go than we are... I mean, just think about when you were a kid. Imagine if you were preparing for a career in the same field your father had worked in for 20 or 30 years, and you were already considered one of the best. You would imagine that dinner table conversations would be fairly informative, and that Austin likely has a very good idea about where things stand.

Interesting stuff. If there IS a lockout, any chance Kyle and Nolan could come back to Duke to pursue, say, a law degree and get another year of eligibility?:)

[theAlaskanBear]

You aren't the only one to have caught that comment. I cannot help but think that Austin is probably a LOT more in touch with how things will go than we are... I mean, just think about when you were a kid. Imagine if you were preparing for a career in the same field your father had worked in for 20 or 30 years, and you were already considered one of the best. You would imagine that dinner table conversations would be fairly informative, and that Austin likely has a very good idea about where things stand.

Interesting stuff. If there IS a lockout, any chance Kyle and Nolan could come back to Duke to pursue, say, a law degree and get another year of eligibility?:)

Actually, wouldn't it make sense that a lockout would HELP Kyle and Nolan gain draft spots? If some of the underclassmen decide to stay in school, then there is less competition...even if there is a lockout, there will be a draft.

[Kdogg]

A NBA work stoppage is a real possibility. The two sides are miles apart on contract length, max salaries and type of cap. The last I heard some owners were even looking to roll back CURRENT contracts. I usually side with management but even floating that idea takes gumption. I doubt the players will strike so it looks like the owners will lock them out.

Having said that, the last NBA lockout didn't stop players from leaving. If I remember correctly 8 out of the first 10 picks where underclassmen. Regardless of how things play out, it will not change one thing - the earlier a player enters the league the closer he is to his second contract. That's when the real money comes into play. So even with a lockout I expect the top underclassmen to declare. Even if it's only half a season that's still a big payday.

Eventually a deal will be made. Not all the owners are billionaires that have the resources to absorb the loss of revenue from games while maintaining overhead. During the last lockout part of the TV deal was guaranteed. That was one reason it lasted so long. I don't know if the new deal has such provisions. And just like the owners a lot of the players will need income.

[El_Diablo]

The NBA is going through a bit of a renaissance and it would be beyond stupid for the owners to initiate a lockout.

Not really...a lockout like '98 that shuts down half the regular season would allow owners to not pay salaries for that time. It would preserve the playoffs, where the NBA generates most of its revenue but compensates players at relatively lower rates. So it lets them get the most bang for their buck, and on top of that it would likely allow them to negotiate lower player salaries--especially on rookie contracts--and lock them in for the long run at recession-level prices. It might cause a PR backlash for the owners, but if they lay the groundwork ahead of time (by emphasizing how untenable the financial situation is and how unreasonable the player salaries are), then they won't be blamed too much and the fans will come back. What else are they going to do...go to hockey games?

Then, as the economy recovers over the next couple years and the money starts rolling back in, the owners will be very well positioned to reap huge financial gains. Now is actually the best time to have a lockout, because the economy gives the owners the best ammunition they've had in a long time.

I would be somewhat surprised if there were no lockout at all.

[Starter]

Actually, I don't think Austin -- or Doc -- knows much more, if anything more, than we know.

But what WE know is that they're in very dire straits (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/23/sports/basketball/23hunter.html?_r=2&src=tptw) with their labor situation, and it's been heading this way for years. I just hope this doesn't affect Singler and Smith in a terribly adverse fashion. Irving has plenty of time to sort things out if he needs it. I wouldn't want Kyle and Nolan to compete with, say, TWO years of NBA Draft hopefuls.

[theAlaskanBear]

Not really...a lockout like '98 that shuts down half the regular season would allow owners to not pay salaries for that time. It would preserve the playoffs, where the NBA generates most of its revenue but compensates players at relatively lower rates. So it lets them get the most bang for their buck, and on top of that it would likely allow them to negotiate lower player salaries--especially on rookie contracts--and lock them in for the long run at recession-level prices. It might cause a PR backlash for the owners, but if they lay the groundwork ahead of time (by emphasizing how untenable the financial situation is and how unreasonable the player salaries are), then they won't be blamed too much and the fans will come back. What else are they going to do...go to hockey games?

Then, as the economy recovers over the next couple years and the money starts rolling back in, the owners will be very well positioned to reap huge financial gains. Now is actually the best time to have a lockout, because the economy gives the owners the best ammunition they've had in a long time.

I would be somewhat surprised if there were no lockout at all.

This is why I am confused. Season ticket sales exploded this year, they are getting better attendance, AND the salary cap went UP when they were predicting it to drop. So the NBA is not dire straights -- it is becoming more popular, and right now there is a new rising crop of stars in new markets (Durant-Westbrook in OKC, Love in Minni, Wall in DC, Blake Griffin in LAC, etc etc) emerging. For the owners to throw away momentum and goodwill from the fans is not a smart business move imo.

I understand there are issues that need to be addressed. There are owners losing money, etc etc. But the "claimed" (let them open up the books for everyone to see) operating loss of the NBA of 350 million should be put in perspective. That is the combined contracts of LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, and Chris Bosh. The owners are asking a rollback of 800 million in salary and compensation. That's just nuts, when it stands right now at 2.1 billion. Would you go back to work for a business that cut your salary by 40%?

A relatively simple adjustment in the % of revenue assigned to players would make the NBA profitable. If there are still individual franchises losing money, and not the NBA as a whole, then revenue sharing would accomplish that goal.

Again, its the owners and GMs who went bonanza this offseason signing players to huge contracts -- if the NBA is in such dire straights, why?

[amazinballer323]

I'd been reading it was more likely for the NFL to lockout than the NBA.

NBA players live paycheck to paycheck, as was seen in the last lockout. What do the owners lose from the lockout? They'll still have plenty of money.

[ncexnyc]

Would you go back to work for a business that cut your salary by 40%?

Why are you asking the average Joe a question like this? Most people would probably say no, because they could get something close to what they are making now. NBA players, even the ones making the minimun are a whole different story. For the most part what else would they do?

[rhcpflea99]

1998 lockout 13 underclassmen were drafted in the first round the year. IMO lockout will have no effect on any player who is first round material.

[Kedsy]

1998 lockout 13 underclassmen were drafted in the first round the year. IMO lockout will have no effect on any player who is first round material.

Well, the question for underclassmen is would they rather be drafted and then not play (and I assume not be paid until the lockout ends?), or would they rather get another year of college under their belt, improve, enjoy themselves, and be drafted higher. I don't know that it's cut and dried either way.

[rhcpflea99]

Well, the question for underclassmen is would they rather be drafted and then not play (and I assume not be paid until the lockout ends?), or would they rather get another year of college under their belt, improve, enjoy themselves, and be drafted higher. I don't know that it's cut and dried either way.

They won't get paid by the team that drafted them until they sign a contract but they will get paid by endorsements. Kyrie, Barnes, Sullinger guys like that are going to make more money in endorsements then their actual rookie contract.

[Newton_14]

They won't get paid by the team that drafted them until they sign a contract but they will get paid by endorsements. Kyrie, Barnes, Sullinger guys like that are going to make more money in endorsements then their actual rookie contract.

The point is that it is not cut and dried. Some will choose to go and some won't. The data from 1998 doesn't really matter all that much. Many of the top kids have already said the lockout would factor into their decisions on whether to declare or not.

If the lockout happens, some of those kids will decide to stay in college, and others will choose to roll the dice and declare.

[Kedsy]

They won't get paid by the team that drafted them until they sign a contract but they will get paid by endorsements. Kyrie, Barnes, Sullinger guys like that are going to make more money in endorsements then their actual rookie contract.

But if they don't play their face won't be as recognizable in their new home city. It's possible some endorsement contracts won't kick in until the lockout's over. There is no easy answer to this question.

[superdave]

I'd been reading it was more likely for the NFL to lockout than the NBA.

NBA players live paycheck to paycheck, as was seen in the last lockout. What do the owners lose from the lockout? They'll still have plenty of money.

I think the player's union understands that these guys spend so much $ that a lockout would hurt. Here's Patrick Ewing (head player rep) back in 1998 (http://www.rateitall.com/i-3165996-patrick-ewing-make-a-lot-of-money-but-spend-a-lot-of-money-quote.aspx).

Also, David Stern is 68 years old and likely heading towards retirement soon once he's properly groomed young Anakin Skywalker in his devious ways. You think he wants to preside over a lockout and 3-4 years it would take to build back the league's image in his final act as Commish? Me neither.

I think Stern got his pound of flesh and made his point when the salary cap shrank last summer. The only problem is the owner's continued to hand out $30-40 million contracts to jabronis like Amir Johnson and $100 million contracts to third tier guys like Joe Johnson. The NBA owners need to show some self-discipline otherwise Stern has no leg to stand on. Perhaps if the cap stays even or shrinks a little summer 2011 then no lockout will be necessary.

[Kdogg]

I think the player's union understands that these guys spend so much $ that a lockout would hurt. Here's Patrick Ewing (head player rep) back in 1998 (http://www.rateitall.com/i-3165996-patrick-ewing-make-a-lot-of-money-but-spend-a-lot-of-money-quote.aspx).

Also, David Stern is 68 years old and likely heading towards retirement soon once he's properly groomed young Anakin Skywalker in his devious ways.

You know that guy is a Duke alum (Adam Silver).

[BD80]

You know that guy is a Duke alum (Adam Silver).

The force is strong with that one. He bears watching.

[BoozerWasFouled]

I think the player's union understands that these guys spend so much $ that a lockout would hurt. Here's Patrick Ewing (head player rep) back in 1998 (http://www.rateitall.com/i-3165996-patrick-ewing-make-a-lot-of-money-but-spend-a-lot-of-money-quote.aspx).


Ownership always makes calculations about how long labor can afford to stay out. Usually for rent, food, seasonal costs like heat, etc.

What is fascinating about the NBA lockout is that ownership is calculating players will fold on account of their uncontrollable luxury spending.

I mean, if players even remotely controlled their spending--if they only saved 50% of their salaries this year alone, for example--most could easily weather a lockout for multiple years. But they won't.