ACC Early Season Appraisal

[gw67]

I like to look at the overall league about once a week to see how teams and individual players are doing. It is very early in the season, but the following is a compilation of the “hits” and “misses” so far.

Hits
• Duke, FSU, NC State and Clemson have gotten off to good starts. Duke is clearly the class of the conference even at this early date.
• Several positive stats for the Devils – 41 point scoring margin; 44.7% 3-point shooting; 21.7 apg; and 11.0 turnover margin. These reflect not only the strength of the team but the weaknesses of the opponents so far.
• Rebounding margin of 15.3 per game for Miami
• Excellent shooting from the field by Clemson (.538) and from the foul line by Virginia (.809)
• Several players have gotten off to excellent starts: Singleton (19.3 ppg, 10.3 rpg, .581 From field and 3.8 steals per game); Williams (18.4 ppg, 12.4 rpg and .571 from field); Scott (15.0 ppg, 9.0 rpg and .556 from field); Smith (16.0 ppg and 7.3 apg); Jackson (23.5 ppg); Delaney (21.0 ppg) and Henson (13.0 rpg)
• Several freshmen have gotten off to good starts: Irving; McKie; Barnes; Harrow; Terrell; Brown and Stoglin

Misses
• Wake, BC and Georgia Tech have ugly losses and UNC lost to a team they were expected to defeat
• .575 free throw % by UNC
• .175 3-point % by BC
• -8.75 turnover margin per game by Wake

Overall
The ACC is 29-10 at this very early stage when only the Terps have played good opponents. This is considerably worse than normal and is probably an indication that the league is either very young or not nearly as good as in the past or both and it is a down year. I expect the league to have a tough time beating the Big Ten this year and playing poorly against OOC teams will have a negative effect on the number of ACC teams invited to the ACCT. Hopefully, a number of the younger teams will develop as the year progresses and the league will be strong come February.

gw67

[Gthoma2a]

Wait, Barnes has gotten off to a good start?!

[gw67]

Having been on this site since the beginning and a Duke fan for nearly 50 years, I am acutely aware of the deep bias toward Tarheel players. Getting to the point in hand, Barnes is averaging 13 ppg, 6rpg and 2 apg while shooting 37% from the field, 82% from the line and 36% from 3-point territory. Not great but, IMO, certainly worthy of being included with the other freshmen I identified as getting off to good starts. For comparison, Singler is averaging 14 ppg, 6 rpg and 1.3 apg while shooting 41 % from the field, 90% from the foul line and 23% from 3-point territiory.

Just my opinion based on a small data set.

gw67

[Gthoma2a]

I understand, but my thing is what each are needing to do during the games. Kyle doesn't have the numbers because he is trying to get others involved, but Harrison's team was down, and he was supposed to be the best player on the floor, so it just seems to me a little weaker than any of our guys due to our depth. It is like Kyrie could have 30 if he were supposed to be the primary scoring guy, the same could be said for Nolan, Kyle or many of our other talents. It is all good, though.

[Bob Green]

Having been on this site since the beginning and a Duke fan for nearly 50 years, I am acutely aware of the deep bias toward Tarheel players.

Just my opinion based on a small data set.

gw67

And your opinion is highly respected here. Thanks for posting your thoughts!

[Wander]

I've been calling for FSU to finish 2nd in the conference and for others to recognize Virginia Tech as overrated. Today VT plays a team, UNC-G, that FSU already crushed. It may be a nice early point of comparison for my prediction.

This may be the worst ACC in a while - the bottom is usually the conference's strength, but you're right, that doesn't appear to be the case this year.

[Gthoma2a]

And your opinion is highly respected here. Thanks for posting your thoughts!

Absolutely, and don't take anything I was saying the wrong way. I was just pointing out my reasoning of why those situations are different IMO.

[gw67]

Gthoma2a,

No offense taken. I suspect that one of the issues with Barnes is the high expectations for him. He was supposed to be the greatest thing since sliced bread and, obviously, he has not been exceptional to date. Over the years, I been taken to task for saying nice things about Tarheel players and it is often assumed that I am a fervent UNC supporter. Not so! I support the Devils, Terps and Hoos when they play the Heels. I don't post as much as I used to but I really enjoy reading and posting to DBR and the civility of the posters when there are disagreements.

Bob Green - Thanks for kind words. I just noticed that you moved back to the mainland (Washington) from Japan. I have visited the state numerous times over the years and love the Northwest. My wife and I spent two weeks this past summer starting in Seattle working our way down the coast to San Francisco and then inland to Yosemite. We loved every minute of it.

gw67

[gumbomoop]

Whenever we talk about the conference, the ugly unbalanced-schedule mess has some relevance. Would it be fair to say that, just this early into the season, the weakest teams appear to be Wake, Ga Tech, UVA, maybe BC? Well, if so, VTech's ACC schedule appears to be - good luck of their draw - unusually unbalanced in their favor: they get to play all 4 of these relatively weak teams twice.

Further, would it be fair to say that Duke and FSU look like tough opponents? Well. if so, VTech plays each of these team but once, and at home.

I realize that VTech's "easy" schedule is already known, but the early results suggest that the schedule is even more in their favor than expected.

Maybe Md gets a relatively soft schedule, too, as they get UVA, Wake, and BC twice, and play FSU and NCSt only at home. [I am aware that they get Duke twice.]

[davekay1971]

State currently acquitting themselves quite well against Georgetown without Tracy Smith in the lineup. Their three frosh are contributing very well and there seem to be no chemistry issues this year. Gonzalez is starting over the more talented Harrow, but seems to be more than willing to share time with Harrow or move over to the 2 when Harrow comes in. Howell, Painter, and Vandenberg have played well in Smith's absence. Brown, as Lowe predicted before the season started, is a great addition and very much ready to start. Wood is benefitting from more open looks. Smith is due back in 3 weeks, which will give State a very deep interior rotation to go with a much improved perimeter.

State is also playing pretty good defense, and they are obviously buying into Lowe's vision and system. They have a long way to go to be a really good team, but Lowe has the pieces in place and things are starting off well for them.

[-jk]

Unfortunately, Miami and Clemson didn't fare so well. Miami by 16 to Rutgers and Clemson by one to Old Dominion.

-jk

[ice-9]

I'm beginning to wonder whether a perfect ACC season for Duke is possible.
- UNC is looking more like its NIT version with losses to Minnesota and Vanderbilt
- Virginia Tech is far from elite as evidenced by their 16 point loss to K-State
- Maryland is better than expected, but still not quite there
- Clemson just lost to ODU by a point

Neither FSU nor NC State have proven themselves, but we'll learn more about the latter after today's Georgetown games. Virginia is probably a year or two away from being a challenger.

That DII team we played for exhibition might be better than Wake Forest, Georgia Tech and Boston College. Miami just lost by 16 to a Rutgers team that Princeton had beaten.

[timmy c]

I'm beginning to wonder whether a perfect ACC season for Duke is possible.
- UNC is looking more like its NIT version with losses to Minnesota and Vanderbilt
- Virginia Tech is far from elite as evidenced by their 16 point loss to K-State
- Maryland is better than expected, but still not quite there
- Clemson just lost to ODU by a point

Neither FSU nor NC State have proven themselves, but we'll learn more about the latter after today's Georgetown games. Virginia is probably a year or two away from being a challenger.

That DII team we played for exhibition might be better than Wake Forest, Georgia Tech and Boston College. Miami just lost by 16 to a Rutgers team that Princeton had beaten.

Are you suggesting that the ACC might be a one bid league? :D

[Duvall]

I'm beginning to wonder whether a perfect ACC season for Duke is possible.

Be nice to see Duke get a win over a major conference team first. Besides, Duke plays Virginia Tech, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Florida State and Miami on the road.

[ice-9]

Are you suggesting that the ACC might be a one bid league? :D

A one national championship league in Duke, that's what I'm suggesting. :D But yea, no, I meant that the second team in the ACC is a distant one from us. I actually think the ACC might put seven teams into the tournament this year because of parity after Duke and a very, very weak bottom.

I'm thinking Duke, Virginia Tech, UNC, NC State, Florida State, Maryland and Clemson will get bids.

[camion]

One advantage to having some truly wretched teams at the bottom of the league is that the teams in the middle can pad their win columns and get above the .500 mark in league play, bolstering their argument that they should be in the big dance. The Big East has often had that makeup. The question this year in the ACC is whether there are any teams in the middle strong enough to take advantage of it.

[ice-9]

One advantage to having some truly wretched teams at the bottom of the league is that the teams in the middle can pad their win columns and get above the .500 mark in league play, bolstering their argument that they should be in the big dance. The Big East has often had that makeup. The question this year in the ACC is whether there are any teams in the middle strong enough to take advantage of it.

As long as those middling ACC teams can stop losing in the non-conference, the answer is yes. UNC, NC St, Florida St, VT, Clemson, it's not a stretch to say they're all roughly about the same level. So assume they split amongst themselves, win all their games against the basement, and take a loss or two against Duke :) -- you'd have an NCAA tournament profile.