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Patrick Yates
06-13-2007, 08:04 AM
Rivals is now reporting that Semardo Samuels has announced for Louisville.

If this is true, and it holds up, UNC is in something of a hole. They really counted on Samuels, and were kinda sure he was in the truck.

All in all, the recruiting trail is not being kind to UNC of late.

Delvon Roe apparantly gave the staff private assurances that he was in the truck, only to switch to MSU at the last minute.

UNC is way behind on all the other PF recruits still on the board. Only the Aminu kid in GA still has them high on his list, but getting him will be pretty hard, IMHO. Personally, I think he suits up for FL, and announces such sometime this summer.

UNC has been dropped by most of their guard and wing preferences, and may now be in scramble mode.

Frankly, there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding UNC next year, and beyond. TL could go pro, but it is a heavy PG year, so maybe not. UNC already has the Drew kid on board, but he is in free fall mode, apparantly.

WE may go pro, but he may not be good enough. He didn't really show anything this year, and his bad games tended to come in important games, never a good sign to scouts. Also, UNC is loaded at the wing next year, and beyond.

The post is where things get interesting. Here, UNC is not that dissimiliar from Duke, purely from an uncertainty standpoing. At Duke, if BZ and LT make physical strides, and if KS is ready, we could be set for the next 2 years, making PT hard to come by. Likewise at UNC, they are uncertain going forward. Face it, if TH didn't leave this past year, he may well be a 4 year player at UNC. Stephenson and Thompson are more than capable side kicks, so IF Hans sticks arround, there will not really be any PT for incoming recruits in the post not named Monroe or Ed Davis.

If I was a recruit, I might want to wait until mid year to see how UNC looks (or even until after the season when all the attrition occurs) before I committed. But, if UNC doesn't lose anyone, if you wait that long, there might not be anywhere else good left to go. So, if all the good recruits go (and sign) elsewhere, UNC could be real thin next year also. Good times.

Upshot of all this, expect to see and hear that UNC is making a HUGE push for Monroe this summer. Until he commits elsewhere (and perhaps after) expect to hear about someone from UNC shadowing GM at every event.

Patrick Yates

ps; Regarding Monroe, I still think getting him out of Lousiana will be tricky. The whole state will pressure him to go to LSU.

jimsumner
06-13-2007, 10:04 AM
"UNC is way behind on all the other PF recruits still on the board."

Ed Davis is very high on the Heels.

crote
06-13-2007, 10:28 AM
ps; Regarding Monroe, I still think getting him out of Lousiana will be tricky. The whole state will pressure him to go to LSU.

Maybe tricky, but not impossible. Consider Joe McKnight, this year's top football recruit and a Louisiana product, who ended up signing with USC. LSU football is a good piece better than LSU basketball and is more popular/important within the state by an order of magnitude, but that didn't keep an interloper from cherry picking Louisiana's best talent. Us landing Monroe would be a comparable coup.

Also, while LSU has had success landing talented instate basketball guys, they've almost all been from the Baton Rouge area (Bass, Lazare, Davis, Temple, and Thomas are all from Baton Rouge itself, while Tasmin Mitchell is from just down the road). Harvey, where Monroe is from, is much further down state, a NOLA suburb not unlike Slidell, which produced a certain Mr. Duhon.

jimsumner
06-13-2007, 10:52 AM
I'm pretty sure LSU wanted to keep Chris Duhon in state.

Not minimizing the difficulties. But it has been done.

crimsonandblue
06-13-2007, 11:08 AM
Well, if UNC were really concerned about its guard options they likely would have offered a scholarship to Travis Releford by now and all indications are that they have not.

They're also playing around with the Zeller kid whose brother is at Notre Dame, so they've got other options at the 4.

Is the Withey kid who decommitted from Louisville interested in the Heels?

Patrick Yates
06-13-2007, 12:09 PM
Releford is a heavy Kansas lean. Heavy. Recruiting him is like going after LeBron back in the day. He may have wanted to take vainity visits to the marquee programs, but we all knew he was going pro. Releford's family loves KU, which is a local school for him. Duke kind of dropped out prior to offering, much like UNC. Personally, I do not think either Roy or K want to be seen as losing a recruiting battle. Both teams like to cultivate the reputation that they select, rather than recruit. Lately, both teams have been willing to publicly back off a kid who they think may be stringing them along with no real chance of going to that school. Sort of a I broke up with him before he could break up with me situation.

Ed Davis may be looking at UNC, but UVA is believed to lead, with UConn right behind, with UNC solidly in the middle of the pack behind the two leaders. He seems to be giving off the vibe that he is none too pleased that he was basically UNC's 3rd to 4th option in the post (Roe, Samuels, Monroe, Maybe even Aminu). He likes UVA, so that may happen. Also, at UVA, Davis is the focal pt of the O from day 1 until the season is over, which is when he stops being a UVA student to get ready for the pros.

As for the Zeller kid, UNC does remain in on him. But, his older bro goes to ND, and IU is going to start locking the locals up if at all possible. He, like Aminu (brother at GT), is a real hard get.

The Whitey kid is staying close to home, which means the west coast. He is only looking at USC, Arizona, and few others out there. UNC is not on his radar.

All-in-all, UNC's once bright recruiting future is suddenly looking like a Excrement Shoot.

Shame.

Patrick Yates

ps: as for the Monroe Duhon thing, be real. Duhon was a nice player, even won a few hs player of the year awards (but the McD's is given based on academics and character as much as actual ability), but don't compare then with now, or the two players. When we brought in Duhon, Duke was percieved to be much stronger than our current incarnation. We had just finished the 99 run, and brought in the Williams, Boozer, Dunleavy class. Now, there appear to be a few chinks in the armor. Duhon, while great, is not near the no. 1 Monroe either in terms of long range potential or the ability to provide immediate impact. And Duhon had scads of both qualities, it is just that athletic, skilled, bigs are like the holy grail.

Also, back then, LSU was a wasteland. The Shaq years were long forgotten. Even the LSU football team was suffering through the pre-saban resurrection doldrums. Now, LSU is a machine. Everyone in the state loves the school, and they are pretty OK. This year was a dissappointment, but there is some talent there next year, and the SEC is weak next year, so a NCAA slot is not out of the question. GM could face a real situation where his presence would push the tigers into real national relevance, while he is one of the team's real studs. At Duke, we would be good without him (barring the loss of KS and GH).

Also, with regards to Duhon's recruitment, Past returns are no guarantees of future results.

The GM recruitment will make us all sweat. Big time.

jimsumner
06-13-2007, 12:35 PM
Patrick,

Numerous sources indicate that UNC and Virginia are the clear leaders for Davis and that UNC may well have jumped to the lead.

Chris Duhon may not have been in the Monroe category but he was a consensus top 10 recruit, heavily recruited by most of the heavies. He was a signifcant recruit.

I've never doubted for a moment that Duke would have to work for Monroe.

sandinmyshoes
06-13-2007, 02:17 PM
There are two things that worry me more than who UNC does not get. One is that Hansbrough will be a four year player. He is reported to love the college life and have a fear of flying. Supposedly when Ol' Roy set out his draft potential Hansbrough told him something along the lines that he was in no hurry to get into all that flying.

The other thing is that if they only take a two or three man class this year, and do not make any panic grabs, they will have a lot of scholarships for the loaded '09 class where a player ranked 25th could be better than some of the top tens in '08.

Anyway we look at it, UNC will get talent. I almost would rather they get top five one and dones than load up with three and four year talent the get molded into experienced teams. Deon Thompson, who is going to one of the Pan-Am teams, might be a more valuable get for them than Brandan Wright, in the long run.

dkbaseball
06-13-2007, 03:29 PM
I visit NOLA regularly, and am there right now. I don't think Brady has much chance of getting Monroe to LSU. People in state are very down on Brady, and unhappy that he got the contract extension after a purely accidental final four run last year. And there really isn't much buzz in this area about hoops; far more for football and even baseball among LSU fans. Offhand, I can't think of a single top hoops player from NOLA who has gone to LSU. John Thompson used to pipe them down to Georgetown, and the two big-timers in recent years have been Duhon and D.J. Augustin, who went to Texas. Duke will have to work hard for Monroe, but not against any strong home-state favorite.

The Joe McKnight comparison is very apt. No way LSU football loses an in-state propspect like that, but USC came in with the mystique going for them right now. Sadly, I must agree that our mystique quotient is down a bit at the moment.

houstondukie
06-13-2007, 07:35 PM
No way Aminu goes to Florida. He has come out with a top 3 in the last couple weeks and it includes UNC, GT, and Wake.

His brother is a rising junior at GT, so many thought they were a leader. However, after his visit to winston-salem, it looks like Wake is the leader and may have the kid in the truck already.

Either way, UNC is clearly third in the running.

If Wake does land Aminu, who is the #3 player according to Rivals, he will join Ty Walker, the #7 player in the class, to form an impressive class. In two years, they will be freshmen on a team with Ishmael Smith, LD Williams, Jamie Skeen, etc. They also have two talented players coming in this year, James Johnson and Jeff Teague. Wake will be dangerous in two years.

Troublemaker
06-13-2007, 08:31 PM
I'll believe UNC is in trouble in recruiting when the dust settles and they have a so-so '08 recruiting class. I doubt I'll be satisfied on that front. They already have locked up an excellent point guard prospect and I don't think they're going to go oh-fer on the big man front.

mapei
06-14-2007, 01:45 PM
Methinks there is a certain amount of wishful thinking going on.

ivduke
06-14-2007, 02:19 PM
Whether they actually have a poor class or not is almost irrelevant. I could read the thread title and live happily ever after in pure bliss

Lord Ash
06-14-2007, 02:30 PM
UNC will be just fine. Don't worry.

SilkyJ
06-14-2007, 03:10 PM
UNC being fine worries me quite a bit

Lord Ash
06-14-2007, 05:02 PM
:D

Sorry, maybe I put that badly.

kydevil
06-15-2007, 12:16 AM
but true Lord Ash, as much as it pains me to say Unc still has that "mystique" going for them.

jawk24
06-15-2007, 02:06 PM
At least they got involved with multiple top recruits and their approach seems to be working. Our approach of going after only 1 player at each position has been failing us (Wright, Patterson) and has really put us at a disadvantage.

jimsumner
06-15-2007, 03:14 PM
"Our approach of going after only 1 player at each position has been failing us (Wright, Patterson) and has really put us at a disadvantage."

Duke did recruit another player at Brandan Wright's position. His name is Lance Thomas.

mapei
06-15-2007, 04:04 PM
"Our approach of going after only 1 player at each position has been failing us (Wright, Patterson) and has really put us at a disadvantage."

Duke did recruit another player at Brandan Wright's position. His name is Lance Thomas.

Wow. They seem like totally different types of players to me. And we played Lance primarily at the 4 last year and people are talking about him even as a 5 next year - I thought of Wright as a 3 or even 2, but I didn't follow the Heels that closely and could be wrong. Even if they were recruited for the same "position," they certainly don't seem suited for the same role.

JasonEvans
06-15-2007, 04:25 PM
Wow. They seem like totally different types of players to me. And we played Lance primarily at the 4 last year and people are talking about him even as a 5 next year - I thought of Wright as a 3 or even 2, but I didn't follow the Heels that closely and could be wrong. Even if they were recruited for the same "position," they certainly don't seem suited for the same role.

Are you thinking ot Wayne Ellington perhaps, not Brandan Wright. Wright is a tall, thin, long-armed PF. Ellington is a wing.

-Jason "Wright and Thomas are very similar players-- at least in terms of what position they play" Evans

Bob Green
06-15-2007, 07:43 PM
Coming out of High School, Brandan Wright and Lance Thomas were both listed as Five Star PFs by Scout.com. Here is a Link:

http://scouthoops.scout.com/a.z?s=75&p=9&c=4&cfg=bb&pid=88&yr=2006

Brandan Wright was the overall #3 player in the class, while Lance Thomas was #19. Duke recruited both players so I don't see how we can say Duke is recruiting only one player per position. For the Class of 2007, we recruited and signed two SFs, Kyle Singler (overall #6) and Taylor King (overall #56). Again, multiple players for the same position. And, of course, we must remember that Coach K doesn't adhere to the standard 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 position philosophy.

Bob Green
Yokosuka, Japan

jimsumner
06-15-2007, 07:46 PM
To elaborate on that point, Duke was recruiting Wright and Thomas at the same time.

kydevil
06-15-2007, 07:53 PM
Wow. They seem like totally different types of players to me. And we played Lance primarily at the 4 last year and people are talking about him even as a 5 next year - I thought of Wright as a 3 or even 2, but I didn't follow the Heels that closely and could be wrong. Even if they were recruited for the same "position," they certainly don't seem suited for the same role.

No they are similar players, Thomas doesn't quite have all the skills that Wright has but they both play a nice 4 role.

Wright- 6-9 205

Thomas- 6-8 215

Both players are tall and lanky. Wright is def. not a 2 but could maybe play the 3. Thomas is by no way a regular 5 but maybe if he muscles up a little could play a "Duke 5"

mapei
06-15-2007, 09:24 PM
Thanks. I obviously was off on that one. I think I was influenced by the fact that Wright seems so much more quick, fluid and active than Lance. He seems a much better player. Of course I might also have been influenced by Carolina's much more uptempo style.

kydevil
06-16-2007, 08:39 PM
Thanks. I obviously was off on that one. I think I was influenced by the fact that Wright seems so much more quick, fluid and active than Lance. He seems a much better player. Of course I might also have been influenced by Carolina's much more uptempo style.

No offense to Lance but as of now from what I have seen Wright is a much better player.

jimsumner
06-16-2007, 09:46 PM
Of course Wright's better than Thomas. No one has ever suggested otherwise. That's not the point. The point is that when Duke was recruiting Wright, Duke also was recruiting another player who played the same position.
It was not all-or-nothing.

JasonEvans
06-17-2007, 12:04 AM
Of course Wright's better than Thomas. No one has ever suggested otherwise. That's not the point. The point is that when Duke was recruiting Wright, Duke also was recruiting another player who played the same position.
It was not all-or-nothing.

And here is a question-- would you rather get one year of Brandan Wright or 4 years of Lance Thomas. Did we win for losing in that PF recruiting war?

--Jason "the fact that Carolina brought in no one (yet) to replace Wright makes this an even more apt question" Evans

Bob Green
06-17-2007, 12:19 AM
We definitely won with Lance Thomas. He is a four year player and apt to improve each year. Last season he struggled with foul trouble and incurred an ankle injury, which set him back. I'm optimistic he will be much improved this coming year, which means more productive.

Bob Green
Yokosuka, Japan

sandinmyshoes
06-17-2007, 06:19 AM
The one year versus three year player win/lose depends on who replaces the one year player. If Wright had gone to Duke and left after his first year, who would have replaced him? Would he have been a stumbling block to getting Singler? He went to UNC and left after the single season. They replace him with Thompson. Is Thomspon better than Thomas, or can he be expected to be better than Thompson? Who will take Wright's scholarship for UNC in the 08 class?

mapei
06-17-2007, 10:20 AM
Would we have been better off with Casey Sanders instead of Elton Brand? Shav instead of Deng?

I don't think we'll know about LT for a while, though I'm hopeful. Interesting questions.

Patrick Yates
06-17-2007, 12:02 PM
The one year versus three year player win/lose depends on who replaces the one year player. If Wright had gone to Duke and left after his first year, who would have replaced him? Would he have been a stumbling block to getting Singler? He went to UNC and left after the single season. They replace him with Thompson. Is Thomspon better than Thomas, or can he be expected to be better than Thompson? Who will take Wright's scholarship for UNC in the 08 class?

I do not think gettting Wright would have cost us Singler. BW was one of the kids who was basically forced to go to school. In many years, he might have been the number 1 player in the class. Only the presence of not 1, but 2, all time type of players pushed BW to number 3. After his Sr. HS year, he would have been drafted in the 3-6 range. Now, he is looking at that same range again.

Singler would have known that BW would not have been at Duke for BW's Soph year (thus KS's Frosh year) barring serious Bust status or serious injury. Regardless, Duke was considered the leader for KS at the same time Duke was (erroniously) believed to lead for BW.

Something I believe many of you forgot. Roy has already recruited BW's replacement. That is Thompson or Stephenson, or both. They are already in place. Neither player was ready for a real leading role last year, but were ready for spot minutes, not unlike LT. I beleive that one, or both, will make a huge stride this year to become key players. Both are at least 3 year players, and likely 4 year players. Roy recruited the ready to go immediately superstar (BW), and the long term backups.

This LT for 4 vs BW for 1 is valid, but the point about who replaces BW is meritless. The replacement is there.

There is a reason that Roy did not target a single player besides K-love. I believe that he in one of only 2 players from this incoming class who could have definitely beat out Thompson and Stephenson (both top 50 level players, probably too low). The only other one was that PF going to KSU, Beasly, who is in no way, shape, or form, a UNC type of kid. Roy was not going to put up with another McCants type of attitude.

This is not to say that other players, such as KS, Hickson, or Lawal would not beat out Thompson and Stephenson. These frosh, and others I am sure, MIGHT be able to beat out the UNC sohps. But only Love and Beasely are the only 2 who would have Defintely beaten them out, and again, only for 1 year.

I mean, Roy knew BW would leave, and possibly Tyler and Tywon, and he did not recruit a single player? He only offered the very best PF in the class? I imagine that after the summer scrimmages he knew that next year UNC would be fine if the only posts they had were Thompson and Stephenson.

For the next 2-3 years, those guys are going to kill in the acc. UNC will be beatable, but those guys are going to be the standard against which other post players are measured.

Now that TH looks like a 4 year player (cause if he didn't leave this year, I can't imagine he leaves next year, barring the latest onset of a growth spurt in recorded history), UNC is strong in the post. I can see why Roe and Samuels did not come to UNC. I would bet that both of these players backed off UNC after seeing a scrimmage during some trip or tourney, and seeing how good the current players are. With 2 years in Roy's system, they will be hard to beat out, and will at least see significant minutes, even if superior players enter the program (much like my fear that LT and BZ will be good, not great enough to be truly dominant, just good enough to scare off potential studs who want to go to a school where they will play major minutes early).

UNC already has BW's replacements. This was the true coup de tat of Roy's class last year. The most difficult positions to staff, the post, included both a superstar and his very capable replacements. All other positions (pg, sg, wf, sf) are fairly easy to replace. Truly great PGs are harder to replace, but for monster programs, very capable pgs are easy to come by (combos gs are readily available) and SG's and WF's are the most stacked position in HS.

BW, WE, and TL were great players, no doubt, but what made UNC's class one of the all time greats was that UNC brought in replacement posts who could get the one year they needed to be ready to really roll in college.

LT would have benefitted from a situation where he could come in for spurts while watching, guarding, and learning from a superior player already in the program.

Patrick Yates

kydevil
06-17-2007, 12:28 PM
I did not mean to imply that we lost a recruiting battle or anything such by saying that Wright is a much better player. I'm very pleased with us getting Lance Thomas and he will be a very productive player for us the rest of his time at Duke.

mapei
06-17-2007, 09:20 PM
I'll probably get flamed for saying so, but I have been super-impressed with Roy since he arrived at UNC. I think he's raised the bar, and the test of whether K still has it or not will be whether he rises to the challenge. In the past, the answer to that question has been yes.

Bob Green
06-17-2007, 09:53 PM
I'll probably get flamed for saying so, but I have been super-impressed with Roy since he arrived at UNC. I think he's raised the bar, and the test of whether K still has it or not will be whether he rises to the challenge. In the past, the answer to that question has been yes.

You are correct. Roy has definitely raised the bar. To claim otherwise would be a denial of the truth. I agree with you that Coach K has always answered the challenge in the past and I say he will answer the challenge this time.

Bob Green
Yokosuka, Japan

JasonEvans
06-17-2007, 10:43 PM
(Roy) knew that next year UNC would be fine if the only posts they had were Thompson and Stephenson.

For the next 2-3 years, those guys are going to kill in the acc. UNC will be beatable, but those guys are going to be the standard against which other post players are measured.


Some great points in your post Patrick -- you are clearly an astute basketball fan -- but I think your statement above goes a bit too far. Thompson and Stephenson are quite good and will be strong ACC players, but "the standard against which other post players are measured?!?!?" I don't think I would go that far.

Depending on how much longer Carolina has Hansy in the post, it will be interesting to see how Thomp and Steph do once Hansy is not there to absorb the double teams and the opposing team's best post defender.

Lemme ask, which of the two do you think starts this season alongside Hasbro? Its gotta be Thompson, right? Even though I think Stephenson is more agile and mobile -- like Wright was. Here's a thought-- might Carolina go with 4 perimter players around Hasbro (Lawson, Ellington, Green, and then Ginyard, Frasor, or even Miller?) Green and Ginyard have decent size to play some F and Ginyard really rebounds well from the wing.

-Jason "like it really matters? Roy will play 9 guys or even 10 guys 10+ minutes every game next year" Evans

mepanchin
06-17-2007, 11:16 PM
See, I am not sure Roy has brought anything to Carolina that wouldn't have come anyway. Doherty managed the 3 top 10 recruit class (Felton, McCants, May) that eventually carried the team to a national title, so it wasn't as if Roy came in and totally revitalized the program. He gets credit for it because of all the bad publicity Doherty got, but it seems to me that players on struggling teams will more likely be frustrated anyway, and the UNC sports administration didn't seem too keen on keeping Doherty anyway (so it wasn't as if the players felt as if they ought to restrain their tongues).

UNC fans will talk about what chaos the program was in, but given another year or two with Doherty and their own seasoning and maturity, who is to say that the Heels wouldn't have won in 05 anyway? Doherty brought in championship talent and probably would have kept doing so because it's Carolina and they will always have the name and the program to pull that kind of talent. If anything, what Roy has over Doherty is that the athletic administration is willing to give him deference as an experience coach, so disgruntled players won't exactly be free to air out their dirty laundry.

Anyway, my point is that while I'm sure Roy has raised the bar a little, I guess, in terms of recruiting I don't think things have dramatically changed because of Carolina. Things may have changed because of schools like Ohio State, Texas, Florida and UCLA who are now pumping way more into their basketball programs and/or got new coaches who are directing their programs in the right direction, but not because of Roy Williams at UNC.

Patrick Yates
06-18-2007, 10:09 AM
I think your statement above goes a bit too far. Thompson and Stephenson are quite good and will be strong ACC players, but "the standard against which other post players are measured?!?!?" I don't think I would go that far.

Depending on how much longer Carolina has Hansy in the post, it will be interesting to see how Thomp and Steph do once Hansy is not there to absorb the double teams and the opposing team's best post defender.

Lemme ask, which of the two do you think starts this season alongside Hasbro? Its gotta be Thompson, right? Even though I think Stephenson is more agile and mobile -- like Wright was. Here's a thought-- might Carolina go with 4 perimter players around Hasbro (Lawson, Ellington, Green, and then Ginyard, Frasor, or even Miller?) Green and Ginyard have decent size to play some F and Ginyard really rebounds well from the wing.

-Jason "like it really matters? Roy will play 9 guys or even 10 guys 10+ minutes every game next year" Evans

Jason, your last point is spot on. Although, I do think Roy will trim the rotation this year, basically by not really replacing the departing players. Graves will play some, but when he gets more than 10 minutes, the game is a blowout, one way or the other. The other remaining players from last year will simply play more.

As to small ball at UNC, look no further than the Arizona game last year. With BW sidelined by illness, UNC railed a solid (if not spectacular) Arizona club at Arizona. That game wasn't even close. I predict that Roy will go with a 3 post rotation among the 4-5 slots. Sure, there will be times that Roy goes small, but the two bigs will always start, and I think it is Thompson. Stephenson is a load inside, but does need to get more agile, and Thompson is more polished at this point.

As to the standard comment, certainly the three of them WILL be the standard against which other ACC frontlines are measured. Lets face it, Hans AND Thompson would start at virtually every other ACC school, and either of them alone would definitely start at any other ACC school.

I will clarify though. This is not so much a statement about their prowess as a front line, it is more of an indictment of the other front lines in the ACC (and a critique of the overall talent in the ACC). The only front lines which I beleive currently approach UNC is Clemson and NCSU. Clemson's front line is good, but it is no patch on UNC, and will lose key players this year. NCSU's frontline is young, and talented. In a vacume, the NCSU players could at least compete wiht UNC's frontline, but who is going to get those NCSU posts the ball this year?

Thanks to their own talent level, and the presence of an elite, pass first PG, UNC will be the standard for posts in the ACC for the next two years, and maybe three years. Again, I feel that if Hans didn't leave last year, he won't leave until he graduates. And I doubt the other two will leave. All three are big, strong, fairly skilled, and reasonably athletic. None are world beaters as athletes, but they are nothing to throw stones at (how much would K love to have thompson next year, whose game is a clone of K's signature posts of the past Decade? If he stays four years, Thompson could have a similiar trajectory as Sheldon, only a slightly better offensive player and a worse defensive player, but approximately where Shel was as a Sr).

Even if Hans leaves next year (which would only attract one of the top 10 posts in the loaded rising Jr class), Stephenson and Thompson are great posts, especially given all the talent UNC will have at the guard and wing positions. UNC would not really need them to score, but Thompson had some pretty solid moves last year, and a summer to work on them against Hans. All Stehpneson has to do is rebound, play D, and get garbage baskets, which he will to the tune on 10 or so a game. As you pointed out, many of UNC's wings are ready to take major steps forward, and I beleive they will do so this year, and certainly beyond that. Even three years from now, when Hans will be gone due to graduation, you know that Roy will be bringing in a stud once it is clear that Hans can't be in the program anymore.

That is why I think UNC's front line will be the standard.

Really, only Duke could change this going forward (as I said, Clemson's posts graduate next year, and I think NCSU loses one or more of its talented youngsters to the pros, either due to being ready or stupid decisions, see Hickson, J.J.)

IF, and this is a big IF, Singler is as good as advertised, and both LT and BZ develop, Duke will at least be competitive next year. I feel that barring HUGE strides from BZ and/or LT, UNC is still slightly ahead of Duke. Obv, if BZ or LT is a monster next year along KS, with the other being very solid off the bench, we might match UNC, but I beleive that is too much to expect from our youngsters. I think they will improve, just not to that level.

The year after, if our players continue to improve, and KS stays, and Monroe comes, and UNC gets bupkus, Duke could surpass UNC. But, if Thompson and Stephenson continue to advance, and Hans develops a mid range game, Duke will only be slightly ahead of UNC.

As stated above, K really has to answer Roy's bell. This year's recruiting class could be really huge for Duke, as an indicator of the near future and beyond.

Also, thanks for the nice statement Jason.

Patrick Yates

jimsumner
06-18-2007, 10:48 AM
I'm not quite sure I understand what people mean by Roy "raising the bar." Higher than the Dean Smith bar that K recruited and coached against for almost two decades? Higher than the Jim Valvano or Gary Williams bars that produced NCAA championships or the Terry Holland, Bobby Cremins, or Paul Hewitt bars that produced Final Four teams?

The ACC is going to be good. Always had been, always will be. It's a dangerous neighborhood. The bar is always going to be high. That's why people come to ACC schools to coach and to play, to measure themselves against the best the college world has to offer. By all means give Roy Williams his due but he's not showing anything the ACC hasn't seen before or doing anything that hasn't been done before.

abrhodes
06-18-2007, 11:41 AM
I agree with yates. I think Carolina struck gold 2 years in a row, but most of the time you wont always get the top players. Aminu is more than likely going to GA tech or Wake (i'd love to see him come in with Ty Walker at Wake) IF they grab a top player, it may possibly be Davis, but he's high on UVA and Uconn. But then again, there's always the 09 class....

mapei
06-18-2007, 11:55 AM
I'm not quite sure I understand what people mean by Roy "raising the bar." Higher than the Dean Smith bar that K recruited and coached against for almost two decades? Higher than the Jim Valvano or Gary Williams bars that produced NCAA championships or the Terry Holland, Bobby Cremins, or Paul Hewitt bars that produced Final Four teams?

The ACC is going to be good. Always had been, always will be. It's a dangerous neighborhood. The bar is always going to be high. That's why people come to ACC schools to coach and to play, to measure themselves against the best the college world has to offer. By all means give Roy Williams his due but he's not showing anything the ACC hasn't seen before or doing anything that hasn't been done before.


If you take the long-term view, you are absolutely correct. I didn't really mean that he has raised it to a historic level.

I meant that his program has surpassed ours (and the rest of the ACC) in the last few years and, unless K and Duke also raise our performance above what it has been, UNC will continue to hold the top spot that was ours for a good long while. We had clearly passed UNC, and they needed to respond. They did, and now it's our turn.

abrhodes
06-18-2007, 12:00 PM
I went to CBS sportsline and checked out the carolina players stats and calculated the losses of Wright, Terry, Miller and the other guys leaving. Carolina will be losing around 32 % of their scoring. They have no recruits coming in. Granted Graves will get to play this year, and Thompson and Stepheson will get alot more time, I seriously don't know how they can make up from that exodus. Its not like when they lost May, McCants, and Felton, but they lost Wright, who I think could've been alot better than Hansbrough if he stayed a second year. I thought he was the garbage point master. His long arms came in handy all the time (as a matter of fact, I never saw him take a jumpshot). His putbacks were always accurate and he could reach over anyone. But anyway, I'm hearing they'll probably be preseason #1 or possibly 2 behind Memphis. I'm sure Ellington and Lawson will step up, but I'm not really sure UNC be completely dominant. Besides Wright's loss, they lose Terry, who I thought was a very decent small forward. I'm really feeling a rank 5 or 6 for them.

Classof06
06-18-2007, 01:11 PM
If you take the long-term view, you are absolutely correct. I didn't really mean that he has raised it to a historic level.

I meant that his program has surpassed ours (and the rest of the ACC) in the last few years and, unless K and Duke also raise our performance above what it has been, UNC will continue to hold the top spot that was ours for a good long while. We had clearly passed UNC, and they needed to respond. They did, and now it's our turn.

I agree, it is our turn. But to say Carolina has surpassed us is problematic in a few ways. Yes, they did win a national title and you cannot ignore that. But besides that, Duke has matched UNC in every single category. Despite winning 3 of the last 4 matchups, Roy Williams is only 4-4 against Duke since coming to Carolina. They've won 2 ACC Regular Season crowns (one was a co-title), we've won two. They have one ACC tourney title, we have two (since Roy arrived). In respect to the national titles, it should be noted that we won a national title in 2001 during UNC's 12 year title drought. So, if UNC and Duke were back-and-forth, and Duke pulled ahead post-Dean Smith, I think Carolina has bounced back and pulled level to Duke, but not yet ahead. I believe the next few seasons will answer who has pulled ahead of who.

That being said, I think Roy has indeed done an excellent job thus far and that Duke is in danger of being left behind; the next few seasons are critical for Duke in that respect. I realized it when Carolina came into Cameron and got us on Shelden and JJ's (and my) senior night. That was where I believe the dynamic and momentum took a turn; I know games like that are always going to happen in such a heated rivalry and all, but IMO UNC made a huge statement that night; Duke had a substantially better team that year and got thumped.

Make no mistake about it, K needs to respond. To think otherwise would just be naive. It would also be naive to think K can't/won't respond....

Patrick Yates
06-18-2007, 01:29 PM
Saying that UNC is 4-4 since coming to duke is nice, but...I think they take us this year. The best we can hope for is 1-1, although 1-2 or 0-3 are not that far fetched.

I am not saying that we can't, or won't, beat them, it is just that this year does not look that promising. They at least match us on the perimeter, and their post presence is far, far beyond ours next year. Now injury or unexpected development could change this, but that is really wild, unfounded speculation.

Further, I believe that the only player they lose this next year (barring a National title, and maybe not then) is Tywon Lawson. He is almost a lock to go. Ellington, or one of the wing players could also leave (but not both). Of their three wings, not including Frasor, they could lose 1 next year. But, I believe that Roy will yet entice a combo or wing guard of some sort to enter the program. Davis is already on board to replace Lawson.

I think TH has decided to be a 4 year legend at UNC, and that Thompson and Stephenson 1. aren't going anywhere and 2. will be really good. UNC is set up to be no worse than the 2 or 3 best team in the acc for the next 2-3 years.

So we had best enjoy our record vs. Roy, cause it won't last. Next year he becomes the only current coach in the ACC to have a winning record vs Duke, and won't that be a fun day here on the board.

Patrick Yates

mapei
06-18-2007, 03:06 PM
If you are interested in statistical minutiae, this guy has analyzed coaches and programs in a whole bunch of interesting (certainly not conclusive) ways. What I especially like is that he only looks at the last 5 years. He also has some interesting things, positive and negative, to say about Duke.

Click on his April archive and you'll find a series of about six posts dealing with all this. Here's the main link to his blog: http://yetanotherbasketblog.blogspot.com/.

The guy seems to have as much time on his hands as KenPom!

mepanchin
06-18-2007, 04:30 PM
So we had best enjoy our record vs. Roy, cause it won't last. Next year he becomes the only current coach in the ACC to have a winning record vs Duke, and won't that be a fun day here on the board.

Patrick Yates

I mean that's a little pessimistic. What if we did split this coming year? The year after, UNC could very well lose Hansbrough (no one knows his motivation - but he will be like, 22 and a Junior) and Lawson and not gain the kind of class in 08 they were hoping for. They would be good, but national title contenders?

Meanwhile, Duke could also very well land Email Williams and Greg Monroe and have one of the best and more talented teams in the country that year.

These scenarios could go differently as well, but there's no need to panic or jump to conclusions at this point. The future is too difficult to predict in this sport.

mapei
06-18-2007, 04:37 PM
FWIW, the Georgetown board thinks the Hoyas have an excellent chance with Monroe. I was surprised, given what I've read here.

Classof06
06-18-2007, 05:08 PM
I mean that's a little pessimistic. What if we did split this coming year? The year after, UNC could very well lose Hansbrough (no one knows his motivation - but he will be like, 22 and a Junior) and Lawson and not gain the kind of class in 08 they were hoping for. They would be good, but national title contenders?

Meanwhile, Duke could also very well land Email Williams and Greg Monroe and have one of the best and more talented teams in the country that year.

These scenarios could go differently as well, but there's no need to panic or jump to conclusions at this point. The future is too difficult to predict in this sport.


Agreed. Definitely a little pessimistic, Patrick. Either you don't think we will be very good next year or you're giving UNC a hell of a benefit of the doubt. I truly believe we can get a game off of UNC. Between their three best and most consistent players last year, Brandan Wright is gone and ReyshawnTerry has graduated while TH remains. Basically, UNC is asking everyone except Hansbrough and Lawson to accept greatly expanded roles; it cannot be assumed that will be a seamless transition.

Between Ellington, Ginyard, Stepheson, Thompson, etc., all will have to step it up considerably not to have a dropoff. While Duke should still be considered young, the only kids I see getting "thrown into the fire" are Singler (freshman) and Zoubek (greatly increased minutes). The general expectation is that Smith and King won't be asked to do too much too soon.

With Lawson, I don't see him getting off like that, considering Nolan Smith is a great defender and the fact that he played with Lawson for a year at Oak Hill; I'm sure Smith has a better idea of how to guard him than most. I don't see Ellington getting off as our 2 and 3 spots are our best defensive positions and our strongest positions overall. Let's also not forget that Ellington had only 7 points in 33 minutes against Duke last year.

Hansbrough remains a problem, especially with our perceived weakness down low, but the fact remains that UNC has a lot of unproven talent around Hansbrough. This is why I think Duke is very capable of splitting with UNC and why UNC is not a Final Four lock, as many people believe.

Patrick Yates
06-19-2007, 08:05 AM
Since when is logical reasoning the same thing as pessimism? People, not everything is going to go Duke's way.

I said, 1-1 is the BEST we can hope for. I personally beleive that we will sneak one against UNC, especially since the home UNC game is the last game this season, and we will have gelled by then.

I see no chance of us beating UNC at the Dean Dome. Sorry to be pessimistic, but there you go. Especially since the Holes will be really geared up to go after Duke in the wake of the Henderson incident from last year. The Dome will be jacked up, and talent plus home court, cause Duke might not have fully gelled by then, carries them to victory.

We only have to play UNC 2 times. My original point was that UNC is far more likely to beat us in Cameron than we are to beat them at the Dome. That doesn't mean they will beat us, only there is a higher likelihood of us losing our home game vs them losing their home game.

Given that, and my belief that Duke is now the clear number 2 team in the ACC (thanks to the exodus at GT), I think we play UNC in the ACC tourney, where, again, you have to like their chances going in.

As to their talent level, people, quit kidding yourselves. The most significant loss (maybe the only significant loss) was Brandon Wright. And, it is not like he was spectacular last year. He is coasting on potential. I agree with the only negative that scouts are saying about him. Why isn't he better? His numbers were good, but not great, and not nearly as good as they should have been given his talent, skillset, and athleticism. Will they miss him? Sure.

But, look at the Arizona game. Arizona last year, when UNC played them at UA, without Wright, is approximately as good as we will be next year assuming normal development of returning and incoming players. And UNC destroyed them. Thompson had a fantasic game, and there is no reason to think he won't make huge strides this summer. This board is assuming that our posts will improve, so I will give Thompson and Stephenson that same benefit of the doubt and assume they will be bigger, stronger, and more skilled next year. T and S are going to be big problems. Yes, neither can guard Singler. But KS can't guard them. Unlike that Greek 7-footer KS slowed down, UNC's PFs are not perimeter oriented players. They play in the low post, they have a pass first pg who loves getting his posts the ball in scoring position, and they will give KS fits, which isn't his fault.

As for Terry and the 3-pt specialist who graduated, both of them had dissappointing years. In every UNC game they talked about how Terry was having a dissappointing year. I think UNC rotates the two wings, and doesn't lose much, with Frasor backing up both Lawson and Ellington.

I am not the only "pessimist" (ie realist). Most of the national services are listing UNC as one of the elite programs next year, along with UCLA and maybe Georgetown and memphis, although both programs are either losing key players or havign to integrate players at key positions.

I think UNC is at least as good as they were last year, because everyone is used to playing with each other. No one has to figure out his role or integrate new players (other than graves, who has been practicing with them for a year, so minor problems, if any, there). Compared to last year, there are fewer elite teams. Last year, FL, UNC, OSU, UCLA were all NC contenders. G-Town was mentioned as a dangerous team, and that came to pass. This year, there are no other truly elite teams. I think UNC is No 1 for most of the year. We may not like it, but do not try to denigrate another team for baseless reasons. As long as TH and TL are on the court, UNC will be very, very good.

As for the above two posts, they are contradictory. One claims that Smith won't play very much, and the other claims he will be instrumental in stopping Lawson. I hate to say this, but Smith can't be that much more athletic than Nelson, and TL gave DN fits last year. Also, that means sliding Paulus over to Ellington, and that has disaster written all over it.

Face it people, UNC has us at PG and Center, by significant margins. (more at C than PG) and it is a wash at the other spots. So yes. I think 1-1 would be fantastic next year, but that means one of the teams loses in the ACC tourney early, and I doubt it will be UNC, cause I think Duke and Clemson are the only teams capable of beating UNC next year. So when we play them on a "neutral court" I like UNC.

Patrick Yates

ps. Going forward, I think you are wrong regarding Hans. If he didn't leave last year, when his draft status was at its highest, why leave now. He was 21 this year and didn't leave. From here on out, all we will hear about are the things he can't do at the next level. I kind of hope he is a 4 year player at this point. The only way he leaves this year is if UNC destroys opposing teams all year long and wins the NC, with TH sweeping all of the National POY awards. Even a FF run won't force him out, it would have to be a NC. He is a stud in college the way he will never be in the pros. A dominant 4 year run at UNC will cement his place as a legend at UNC, and maybe get his jersey retired if UNC can wrangle a NC somewhere in there. His family doesn't need the money, and being a living legend at UNC has its perks, first and foremost a guaranteed coaching post down the road. So I think we will be gameplanning for TH for 2 more years, unfortunately.

MarineTwinsDad
06-19-2007, 09:28 AM
UNC will be better next year than they were this year, but so will Duke. What is unknowable is how well the Duke team will progress through the season. Every year potential needs to face reality. The key will be rebounding, and whether that is changed by one or two sophomores making a leap forward, or by a team evidencing a desire to win, that is yet to be seen.

However, to simply assert UNC rules is to deny the losses that occured at the Dean Dome this last year, not to mention the contests between Duke and UNC's last national championship team. This is the best rivalary in basketball today, and when these two teams face off the sum of the whole always includes the will and desire to win.

Basically UNC has their team in place, with some bigs who will dominate, and a guard who can get them the ball. Duke, on the other hand, has some potentially significant players coming in who may or may not change the whole balance of power. While it may be true that UNC may win more games next year, that's not something I would bet on (especially as that would be betting against Duke). What I do know is that Duke will be competitive in every game they play as long as they have the desire and heart to win.

sandinmyshoes
06-19-2007, 09:30 AM
. I truly believe we can get a game off of UNC. Between their three best and most consistent players last year, Brandan Wright is gone and ReyshawnTerry has graduated while TH remains. Basically, UNC is asking everyone except Hansbrough and Lawson to accept greatly expanded roles; it cannot be assumed that will be a seamless transition.

Between Ellington, Ginyard, Stepheson, Thompson, etc., all will have to step it up considerably not to have a dropoff. While Duke should still be considered young, the only kids I see getting "thrown into the fire" are Singler (freshman) and Zoubek (greatly increased minutes). The general expectation is that Smith and King won't be asked to do too much too soon.

With Lawson, I don't see him getting off like that, considering Nolan Smith is a great defender and the fact that he played with Lawson for a year at Oak Hill; I'm sure Smith has a better idea of how to guard him than most. I don't see Ellington getting off as our 2 and 3 spots are our best defensive positions and our strongest positions overall. Let's also not forget that Ellington had only 7 points in 33 minutes against Duke last year.
.

The problem with this kind of analysis is that it appears to heighten question marks for UNC while assuming improvement for Duke's question marks. A lot of Duke fans assume Zoubek will improve and Singler will make a big difference. It there are reasons to make that possible. But UNC has reasons to think their players will improve. Frankly, Deon Thompson scares me a bit. And they have a wildcard in William Graves. In the people I know who know people who know him scenario, it seems he has really lost weight and toned up his body in his redshirt season.

Still, I do agree that a split is possible, and maybe even likely if for no other reason than it is Duke/UNC. Duke could even sweep two games if things fell just right, but I have admit it's more likely to fall that way for UNC than it is for Duke next season.

mepanchin
06-19-2007, 10:09 AM
Since when is logical reasoning the same thing as pessimism? People, not everything is going to go Duke's way.

...

As for Terry and the 3-pt specialist who graduated, both of them had dissappointing years. In every UNC game they talked about how Terry was having a dissappointing year. I think UNC rotates the two wings, and doesn't lose much, with Frasor backing up both Lawson and Ellington.

I am not the only "pessimist" (ie realist). Most of the national services are listing UNC as one of the elite programs next year, along with UCLA and maybe Georgetown and memphis, although both programs are either losing key players or havign to integrate players at key positions.



The pessimism is not related to next year, it's related to the the projection you made that UNC will be beating us regularly for years to come.

As for your other points, I don't think one game can suggest anything, Wright had their best field goal percentage by a large amount, and game after game he created his own shots in the half-court (where they struggled) and got out in transition better than most guards. He was also their best shot blocker. I think their reserve big guys can come in and improve a lot, but I don't think the Arizona game is an indicator of what would happen every game if Wright wasn't around (otherwise, Roy would be a complete idiot for playing Wright at all!).

And as for Terry, he was not a flawless player (turned it over a lot) but he actually was the best defensive rebounder on the team and their best 3 point shooter. Ginyard and Green will be fair replacements, but I don't think they will be as good as Terry.

I don't think anyone is rationally saying that Duke will be as good as Carolina next year, my point was more oriented towards the years beyond next (and who is saying that Hansbrough's stock was highest last year? He was projected as going at roughly the same position after his first year too).

phaedrus
06-19-2007, 11:16 AM
Arizona last year, when UNC played them at UA, without Wright, is approximately as good as we will be next year assuming normal development of returning and incoming players.


This sums up your viewpoint. If we are only as good as Arizona was last year, I will be very disappointed.

jawk24
06-19-2007, 11:28 AM
"Our approach of going after only 1 player at each position has been failing us (Wright, Patterson) and has really put us at a disadvantage."

Duke did recruit another player at Brandan Wright's position. His name is Lance Thomas.



Like i said, a top 5 player to a top 25 player.

Patrick Yates
06-19-2007, 12:53 PM
The pessimism is not related to next year, it's related to the the projection you made that UNC will be beating us regularly for years to come.

As for your other points, I don't think one game can suggest anything, Wright had their best field goal percentage by a large amount, and game after game he created his own shots in the half-court (where they struggled) and got out in transition better than most guards. He was also their best shot blocker. I think their reserve big guys can come in and improve a lot, but I don't think the Arizona game is an indicator of what would happen every game if Wright wasn't around (otherwise, Roy would be a complete idiot for playing Wright at all!).

And as for Terry, he was not a flawless player (turned it over a lot) but he actually was the best defensive rebounder on the team and their best 3 point shooter. Ginyard and Green will be fair replacements, but I don't think they will be as good as Terry.

I don't think anyone is rationally saying that Duke will be as good as Carolina next year, my point was more oriented towards the years beyond next (and who is saying that Hansbrough's stock was highest last year? He was projected as going at roughly the same position after his first year too).

Of course you play Wright. There aren't many kids with his athleticism and skills running arround. He gave UNC the best chance to win it all last year. He is clearly better Thompson (for now). My point with the Arizona comparison is that UNC did not drop off much by losing Wright.

As for the Arizona comparison, on paper, it is pretty close. They were ranked in the mid teens going into last year, same as we are this year. Many on the board are assuming that everything will break our way with regards to the question marks on this year's team (grat post above, I am glad someone was able to understand my point and articulate it better). Maybe they won't. Maybe Zoubek and LT are only decent instead of good. Maybe Singler has a good but not great Frosh year. Arizona had a lot of talented kids on the court. They didn't gel or "get it" for whatever reason. Neither did Duke last year. Maybe we won't this year. Frankly, Arizona had the same results we did last year, and apparantly our results were nothing to be ashamed of. And lest we forget, for all his problems, we did lose our best player and only proven inside threat. So, yeah, I will stand by that Arizona game and comparison. That team was up for the game, and their fans were going wild for the game of the week setting and TV hype. And UNC violated them on thier home court, and now return every key player from that game.

With Terry, you are saying they lose Defensive rebounding. That was one of Wright's weaknesses. I somehow think that more PT for the bullish Thompson and Stephenson might make up for that. Also, you better beleive that a player with Hans's mentality is attacking this offseason to improve, and I think rebounding is the way he will do it. Green and Ginyard will be improved players this year also.

As for Hans maxing out his draftability? He won't drop. But, he won't rise either. He is a undersized center, and is actually too small for PF given his athleticism. Unless his passing, dribbling, and shooting improve, the pros won't want him. Stupid on their parts, but the draft is what it is. He has a very low ceiling. He won't get any younger. As I said, his family doesn't need the money. I don't mean the Laetner, middle class, no hardships don't need the money, I mean the Hans family is wealthy. He really doesn't need the money. Sure, it will be more than they have now, but he is really in a position to realize the value of being a 4 year legend at UNC.

So, after next year, when I think Hans, Thompson, and Stephenson are still arround, as well as the wings, and Frasor, they will still be pretty good. Drew replaces Lawson as a pass first PG, and Roy will scare up a pretty good SG if Ellington is dumb enough to leave (which is 50/50 at best). They will be pretty good in two years.

As for Duke in two years, Mapei raises a point I have been making up and down this board. Monroe could go anywhere. There are 3-5 boards that legitimately think they have GM sewn up. He says glowing things about every program in America. Our primary competition is his local state school, ACCORDING TO THE SAME RECRUITING WONKS THAT SAID BRENDAN WRIGHT WAS A LOCK FOR DUKE. Pardon me for a little skepticism on that point.

As for Williams, he seems like a good to great player. Unfortunately, we will have anywhere from 3-5 players at that position when he arrives, depending on Henderson sticking arround. Unless he is truly spectacular, at best he will be splitting time with some pretty good players at that position. I don't see him being the one to push us over the edge. Again, UNC's players will improve right along with ours. Monroe and Williams are big IFs. As things stand now, UNC has to like their chances against Duke for the forseeable future.

Now, if Monroe commits, and Singler sticks arround, we are at least as good as UNC next year. I quit reliying on IFs this past season when I realized that McBob had no desire to be the go-to scorer we all predicted that he would become.

Patrick Yates

mepanchin
06-19-2007, 01:38 PM
Of course you play Wright. There aren't many kids with his athleticism and skills running arround. He gave UNC the best chance to win it all last year. He is clearly better Thompson (for now). My point with the Arizona comparison is that UNC did not drop off much by losing Wright.

As for the Arizona comparison, on paper, it is pretty close. They were ranked in the mid teens going into last year, same as we are this year. Many on the board are assuming that everything will break our way with regards to the question marks on this year's team (grat post above, I am glad someone was able to understand my point and articulate it better). Maybe they won't. Maybe Zoubek and LT are only decent instead of good. Maybe Singler has a good but not great Frosh year. Arizona had a lot of talented kids on the court. They didn't gel or "get it" for whatever reason. Neither did Duke last year. Maybe we won't this year. Frankly, Arizona had the same results we did last year, and apparantly our results were nothing to be ashamed of. And lest we forget, for all his problems, we did lose our best player and only proven inside threat. So, yeah, I will stand by that Arizona game and comparison. That team was up for the game, and their fans were going wild for the game of the week setting and TV hype. And UNC violated them on thier home court, and now return every key player from that game.

With Terry, you are saying they lose Defensive rebounding. That was one of Wright's weaknesses. I somehow think that more PT for the bullish Thompson and Stephenson might make up for that. Also, you better beleive that a player with Hans's mentality is attacking this offseason to improve, and I think rebounding is the way he will do it. Green and Ginyard will be improved players this year also.

As for Hans maxing out his draftability? He won't drop. But, he won't rise either. He is a undersized center, and is actually too small for PF given his athleticism. Unless his passing, dribbling, and shooting improve, the pros won't want him. Stupid on their parts, but the draft is what it is. He has a very low ceiling. He won't get any younger. As I said, his family doesn't need the money. I don't mean the Laetner, middle class, no hardships don't need the money, I mean the Hans family is wealthy. He really doesn't need the money. Sure, it will be more than they have now, but he is really in a position to realize the value of being a 4 year legend at UNC.

So, after next year, when I think Hans, Thompson, and Stephenson are still arround, as well as the wings, and Frasor, they will still be pretty good. Drew replaces Lawson as a pass first PG, and Roy will scare up a pretty good SG if Ellington is dumb enough to leave (which is 50/50 at best). They will be pretty good in two years.

As for Duke in two years, Mapei raises a point I have been making up and down this board. Monroe could go anywhere. There are 3-5 boards that legitimately think they have GM sewn up. He says glowing things about every program in America. Our primary competition is his local state school, ACCORDING TO THE SAME RECRUITING WONKS THAT SAID BRENDAN WRIGHT WAS A LOCK FOR DUKE. Pardon me for a little skepticism on that point.

As for Williams, he seems like a good to great player. Unfortunately, we will have anywhere from 3-5 players at that position when he arrives, depending on Henderson sticking arround. Unless he is truly spectacular, at best he will be splitting time with some pretty good players at that position. I don't see him being the one to push us over the edge. Again, UNC's players will improve right along with ours. Monroe and Williams are big IFs. As things stand now, UNC has to like their chances against Duke for the forseeable future.

Now, if Monroe commits, and Singler sticks arround, we are at least as good as UNC next year. I quit reliying on IFs this past season when I realized that McBob had no desire to be the go-to scorer we all predicted that he would become.

Patrick Yates

I'll try to keep it brief (and boy did I fail):

1. You talk about your perspective being the one of "logical reasoning" and "realism" but no statistician or analyst worth his salt would rely entirely on the performance of a single game to judge a team. That's really an IC-like perspective. I will remain staunch with my perspective that Thompson and Stepheson are still unproven given limited minutes last season.

2. Arizona's fate cannot reasonably be tied with our own to any degree. You might some parallels, but it is not a rational tool to be used for comparison. The better comparison for us next year is Duke from this past season. On that note, you did note that we lost our best player and our only proven inside threat. I don't necessarily want to contest the truth of that statement, but more qualify it. First, while McRoberts may very well have been our best player, he was not a JWill or Redick or Brand who was so clearly our best player that he carried our fates. Our 07 team was a very balanced squad without a single star or a single "best player." In the past, we have lost a "best player" and improved because of young talent, so I don't see why we shouldn't expect that now. Second, I'm not entirely sure I'd consider McRoberts a proven inside threat and I still think there is reason (in his performance) to be optimistic about the future of Zoubek. Not as a dominant force necessarily, but as a presence on the interior that can contribute on both ends of the floor. This is really a point to argue in another post, but the point basically is trying to qualify your statement because I don't think our fate seems as bleak as you may characterize it.

3. Wright was actually a big contributer of defensive rebounds. He had the 2nd most on the team and the 3rd highest rate. Thompson will no doubt help pick up some of the slack, but good defensive rebounding teams tend to be good defensive rebounding teams because they have several very good defensive rebounders and not because they have 2 big guys or anything. A key part of UNC's defense last year was their ability to limit second shots (they had the best defensive rebounding rate in the ACC by a fair margin). Their defense otherwise was not spectacular - teams shot pretty well against them, they didn't force many turnovers, and they were not a good shotblocking team (at any rate, they lose their only significant shot blocker).

4. He won't drop, but his stock will probably be at its best after next year since next year's draft will be a lot weaker than this year's. I don't see how it follows AT ALL that because he didn't leave this year (in a very stacked draft) that he would stay 2 more years. Hansbrough will only risk his health and his draft status as he gets older and because of the way he plays (very physical, constantly putting his body at risk). I don't think we have any reason to believe one way or another, but at the very least there are arguments on both sides.

5. This is more of a recruiting point. Again, when I mentioned pessimism, you were adamant that your perspective was actually one of "logical reasoning" and "realism," not pessimism. Yet, here you say that even if Ellington leaves, it's of course necessary that Roy will replace him with an as-of-yet unnamed SG. Yet, on the other hand, the prospect of getting Monroe at Duke (and it's pretty unanimous that Duke is one of the frontrunners) is too remote to reasonably consider in the equation? You will note that all I said was that the projections that UNC will dominate for years to come are based mostly on conjecture and speculation, and there are many potential scenarios where Duke is as good or better than UNC for a period to come too. A view based on "logical reasoning" and "realism" would comment on the fact that the future is too difficult to predict in this sport, and that there are many scenarios where Duke leads UNC as there are that UNC leads Duke. Fair enough?

Classof06
06-19-2007, 03:14 PM
The problem with this kind of analysis is that it appears to heighten question marks for UNC while assuming improvement for Duke's question marks. A lot of Duke fans assume Zoubek will improve and Singler will make a big difference. It there are reasons to make that possible. But UNC has reasons to think their players will improve. Frankly, Deon Thompson scares me a bit. And they have a wildcard in William Graves. In the people I know who know people who know him scenario, it seems he has really lost weight and toned up his body in his redshirt season.

Still, I do agree that a split is possible, and maybe even likely if for no other reason than it is Duke/UNC. Duke could even sweep two games if things fell just right, but I have admit it's more likely to fall that way for UNC than it is for Duke next season.


What I'm saying is that most of our kids have already been in the position that they will be in next year; with the exception of Hansbrough and Lawson, that cannot be said for anyone on UNC's roster. I don't see how that fact can be overlooked.

There are certainly question marks with us, but just not as many and we didn't lose as much as UNC did. I agree that UNC will be considered better than us next year, and they are. But I definitely think we can get a game and I just don't think UNC is a lock to be that good, not after losing kids like Wright and Terry, who I think will be missed in particular more than UNC fans predict. They definitely have some question marks.

_Gary
06-19-2007, 05:08 PM
Well, I'm with Patrick on this one. First of all, stats in and of themselves are extremely over-rated. "You can make them say whatever you want," as the old saying goes. I still believe the recruitment of Monroe will tell the tale. God forbid, but if UNC somehow sneaks in and takes this kid away from us (and yes, I believe we are leading for him - with only LSU as our serious contender at this point in the game) then we can all plan on saying Roy's past us by. I think he has already (the Wright steal last year sealed it for me), but if he gets Monroe forget about it.

I'm not saying UNC is heads and shoulders above us, but it's hard to deny that Roy has surpassed K at this point in their head to head recruitment over the last couple of years.

Gary

mepanchin
06-19-2007, 05:41 PM
First of all, stats in and of themselves are extremely over-rated. "You can make them say whatever you want," as the old saying goes.

Maybe the wrong stats are overrated. But there is a reason every NBA franchise has statistical consultants to help them evaluate individual players: stats matter. Stats are useful because they reflect what actually happened on the court, but can be limiting when we look at the wrong things, like points per game or rebounds per game.

When you look at the right stats, you can evaluate role players who don't play a big role offensively but might contribute more in other ways. This is particularly why I want to record more detailed defensive stats, because it's almost the last mysterious realm of basketball stats. That is, the question of how to evaluate a player defensively using his actual performance on the court and not our subjective evaluation.

Even still, stats are still just evidence to support evaluations of players or teams, but if a person can really legitimately draw two diametrically opposed conclusions from the same stat, then the stat is poorly devised.

jimsumner
06-19-2007, 05:45 PM
"but it's hard to deny that Roy has surpassed K at this point in their head to head recruitment over the last couple of years."

Couple, as in two?

The most recent completed recruiting class saw Duke sign three prep All-Americans, while UNC signed exactly no one.

The class before that was Henderson, Scheyer, Zoubek, and Thomas v. Wright (one season), Lawson, Ellington, Thompson, Stephenson, and Graves. Slight edge here to UNC but this could end up either way before it's over.

So, yes I think one can deny that Roy has surpassed K in the their head-to-head-recruitment over the last couple of years.

_Gary
06-19-2007, 07:33 PM
So, yes I think one can deny that Roy has surpassed K in the their head-to-head-recruitment over the last couple of years.

And if, God forbid, Roy somehow landed Monroe would you then change your mind? Because I see that recruitment as a watershed moment for Duke. If we land him, the ship is fine. If we lose him, especially to Roy, we are absolutely behind.

mepanchin
06-19-2007, 07:53 PM
Remember around, oh, 1990 or 1991, UNC had a few 10 loss seasons and was not really contending, while Duke was in a streak of Final Fours and about to start winning 2 straight championships. At the time, it must have certainly seemed like Coach K had surpassed Dean too. You know, these things go in surges and for numerous reasons. If Roy somehow gets Monroe to commit, then yeah it will seem awfully bad for Duke, but we have to remember that all it takes is one class, or one player or even one year or development before a team can transform and the power can shift.

We are so sensitive to the shifts in power between our two schools because we are so close geographically and because we are both at the top of college basketball. But we will both wrangle in top tier talent and we both have great college coaches, so I can't say I am terribly concerned. Dean's 21-13 1990 team was 3 years removed from a 34-4 national championship.

Bob Green
06-19-2007, 08:01 PM
And if, God forbid, Roy somehow landed Monroe would you then change your mind? Because I see that recruitment as a watershed moment for Duke. If we land him, the ship is fine. If we lose him, especially to Roy, we are absolutely behind.

I believe it isn't wise to label Monroe (or any recruit) as a "must sign" or the "ship is sinking" situation. Recruiting is too fickle. Hopefully, we sign Monroe and Elliot Williams, plus a third target (Olek Czyz?) but I am not going to have a breakdown if those players go elsewhere.

Recently, UNC lost recruiting battles for Delvon Roe and Samardo Samuels so Roy Williams has his struggles as well as all other coaches. I believe Roy has raised the bar in recruiting competition but I do not believe he is dominating the competition. Coach K will continue to bring top notch talent to Duke.

Bob Green
Yokosuka, Japan

jimsumner
06-19-2007, 08:38 PM
"And if, God forbid, Roy somehow landed Monroe would you then change your mind?"

Well, yea. If all the worst-case scenarios come true, then yes, the worst-case scenarios will have come true.

I confess to some level of astonishment at the level of panic in portions of the Duke fan base. Yes, Roy Williams can recruit and UNC has a good program. They've had a good program since Harding was president. Anybody who thought that '02 presaged some sort of long-term collapse was deluding themselves.

And yes, last season didn't meet Duke's expectations or standards.

But I'm reasonably certain that Mike Krzyzewski hasn't forgotten how to recruit nor has he forgotten how to coach. The idea that a coach who brings in players like Kyle Singler, Gerald Henderson, and Jon Scheyer has lost his recruiting touch seems a bit much. IMO.

It's the AC-freaking-C folks. It's always going to be tough. Nobody's ceding anything to Duke or anybody else. There's no inherent right to dominance. Duke's gonna have to fight and dig for it. And I'm fine with that. Respect the competition but don't fear it.

mapei
06-19-2007, 10:00 PM
I'm not panicked. I just think UNC is better right now, and most college basketball analysts agree with that. I think Roy has been impressive since he showed up at Chapel Hill, and it has come at a time when Duke has underwhelmed in the postseason. Most analysts agree with that, too. Last year Duke underwhelmed at the end of the regular season, as well as in the postseason.

What's wrong with saying so? That doesn't mean I think we're terrible. It means I think we have our work cut out to get back to where we want to be.

_Gary
06-20-2007, 06:41 AM
I'm not panicked. I just think UNC is better right now, and most college basketball analysts agree with that. I think Roy has been impressive since he showed up at Chapel Hill, and it has come at a time when Duke has underwhelmed in the postseason. Most analysts agree with that, too. Last year Duke underwhelmed at the end of the regular season, as well as in the postseason.

What's wrong with saying so? That doesn't mean I think we're terrible. It means I think we have our work cut out to get back to where we want to be.

Word to all of that, Mapei. I'm of the same thought. This discussion, from my point, has nothing to do with Duke being horrible or even just average. Of course that's not the case. All I'm saying is that it seems very much like Roy has passed us by since he has been here, and we are the ones that now need to catch up to him. Yes, we have a great incoming class and they may prove to surpass UNC in the next couple of years. But as it stands right now I do think we've been passed up. And like I said, if Monroe went to UNC instead, I'd view it as nothing short of a disaster. Why? Because that would be 3 years in a row that we did NOT get the #1 athletic big on our radar (Wright, Patterson, Monroe), and two of those three we would have specifically lost to them to Roy (Wright, Monroe). That would be a bad, bad thing no matter how you spin it.

Bob Green
06-20-2007, 07:08 AM
Word to all of that, Mapei. I'm of the same thought. This discussion, from my point, has nothing to do with Duke being horrible or even just average. Of course that's not the case. All I'm saying is that it seems very much like Roy has passed us by since he has been here, and we are the ones that now need to catch up to him. Yes, we have a great incoming class and they may prove to surpass UNC in the next couple of years. But as it stands right now I do think we've been passed up. And like I said, if Monroe went to UNC instead, I'd view it as nothing short of a disaster. Why? Because that would be 3 years in a row that we did NOT get the #1 athletic big on our radar (Wright, Patterson, Monroe), and two of those three we would have specifically lost to them to Roy (Wright, Monroe). That would be a bad, bad thing no matter how you spin it.

Okay, this discussion is starting to split hairs, but Patterson was not the #1 athletic big on our radar. Kyle Singler was our #1 recruiting target and he stands 6'9" 210 pounds. Yes, he is listed as a SF while Patterson is listed as a PF, but Kyle successfully guarded Kevin Love in the Oregon High School State Championship game. We signed our #1 big target.

Bob Green
Yokosuka, Japan

Patrick Yates
06-20-2007, 07:38 AM
The front page article backs up my original point about said boning of UNC.

Someone mentioned that they were on to Ed Davis, but the article again reiterates that he is a UVA/Uconn lean, with UNC trailing. If ED waited until the end of the year and UNC loses 1-2 bigs, he might consider UNC. I think he doesn't wait, and personally, I think he chooses UVA and is the instant star he probably wants to be. Also, the Osby kid commited to one of the Mississippi's yesterday, so he is off their board. The Aminu kid is a hard get, and I agree that Tech probably lands this kid (unless the upcoming disaster season puts Hewitt on the hotseat, and that sucker will have to start warming up soon). As far as Zeller, who knows? That might be UNC's best shot, but I think it is a long shot.

By this time, any kid that UNC contacts knows that he is an afterthought by a scrambling coach, and that probably won't sit well with the egos of these top kids. Still, UNC will be fine next year, and probably beyond, with what they currently have in the program. Also, UNC will probably start to focus on the loaded Jr class pretty quickly, imho. This year might be a write off from their standpoint pretty soon.

As far as Monroe, I agree with the above poster that if Roy somehow snaked GM, it would be a complete disaster. The only way this happens is if GM waits until the end of the year to committ, AND UNC loses two of their 3 bigs to the pros. Then, the minutes and shots would be hard to pass up.

That said, I think there is ZERO chance GM goes to UNC. Nightmare scenario yes, but very unlikely. However, as I have said before (and was roundly shouted down) LSU is going to be real tough to beat for this kid. The local pressure is going to be intense. It is not like he is a star FB player true, but the state has the No. 1 kid, and that tends to bring focus to a sport or college team that does not usually exist. There is already some pressure from national publications for the kid to stay home and help rebuild the team in the wake of the Katrina devastation. I know that is sketchy reasoning, but there you have it.

A lot of people are poo-pooing LSU as a contender (and I am not convinced that Texas or Kentucky are completely out of it either), but this is going to be a dog fight that we may very well lose. That will change a lot of the talk arround here. I agree that no player is a must sign player, especially here at Duke where we do not enjoy a home-state recruiting edge like most other schools. But, Monroe is likely the difference between being an elite squad, and being merely very good. We could still win an NC without GM, but I think it is a dicier proposition without the athletic post.

As far as Williams, he seems like a great player. I am sure that K wouldn't pursue him if he wasn't. But, if we do not get him, it is no huge loss, ONLY because there are so many similiar players already in the program. K is also pursuing a kid in the Jr class who is a Williams clone, so I am not really worried about Williams. I would love to get him (but Tenn and Mem are going to be hard outs for the kid), but if not, no harm no foul.

That Olek kid intrigues me. He is the type of athletic but raw player I have long coveted, and I think K has a real chance there.

Patrick Yates

ps How big is Singler? I have seen it everywere from 6-8 and 210 (which is really small for a PF) to 6-9 and 220 (which is closer to being ready for the pounding). If anyone has any idea or insider knowledge (Watzone) I would greatly appreciate it.