Cumulative Plus/Minus - 2010-2011

[pfrduke]

Now updated through the Michigan game...

INDIVIDUALS
Kyle Singler 2576-1985 (+591) (63-38, 61-24, 63-23, 80-73, 74-54, 85-58, 83-77, 65-51, 61-32, 68-37, 96-66, 82-46, 74-63, 75-52, 71-64, 61-64, 76-60, 87-76, 64-41, 84-68, 78-88, 69-48, 65-33, 79-73, 81-71, 35-27, 75-51, 75-59, 60-64, 65-50, 67-81, 87-71, 74-59, 75-58, 53-20, 63-61)
Nolan Smith 2520-1974 (+546) (71-48, 50-26, 79-29, 71-68, 74-57, 79-52, 68-58, 80-65, 61-34, 67-40, 54-36, 87-47, 74-63, 77-52, 71-64, 61-66, 76-60, 90-78, 77-54, 84-68, 78-88, 63-45, 71-38, 77-71, 61-59, 53-36, 64-39, 71-57, 60-64, 70-59, 67-81, 57-56, 77-61, 75-58, 56-28, 69-69)
Seth Curry 1873-1487 (+386) (58-34, 46-28, 54-35, 30-41, 48-33, 25-29, 15-20, 35-27, 54-28, 60-24, 72-49, 72-37, 34-32, 43-47, 36-23, 54-60, 58-37, 36-36, 44-30, 80-58, 50-54, 48-44, 52-27, 77-64, 77-71, 54-39, 67-54, 70-55, 27-35, 65-56, 62-72, 63-50, 69-61, 47-41, 50-18, 41-38)
Mason Plumlee 1784-1433 (+351) (48-34, 53-18, 33-20, 67-63, 57-56, 73-45, 77-65, 53-50, 61-29, 18-15, 22-23, 53-29, 45-34, 59-38, 27-24, 50-54, 50-43, 57-61, 39-27, 48-38, 30-43, 77-60, 47-32, 51-51, 50-45, 31-16, 57-42, 53-48, 45-52, 61-55, 27-29, 83-69, 37-26, 67-49, 49-26, 29-24)
Andre Dawkins 1542-1212 (+330) (49-30, 55-21, 56-30, 53-44, 43-25, 44-42, 62-58, 72-56, 62-34, 30-25, 89-59, 62-39, 51-49, 74-47, 52-53, 45-48, 64-50, 41-35, 19-22, 12-15, 50-67, 47-32, 58-36, 26-30, 26-23, 32-31, 12-15, 18-13, 23-16, 9-4, 20-20, 52-36, 24-13, 28-17, 36-25, 46-52)
Miles Plumlee 1291-979 (+312) (54-22, 24-19, 69-33, 21-13, 29-24, 52-40, 14-21, 25-18, 50-23, 55-37, 65-56, 58-34, 42-36, 29-21, 45-45, 7-4, 6-4, 55-36, 42-35, 30-27, 20-25, 37-33, 39-21, 49-39, 50-36, 14-18, 14-15, 9-4, 23-23, 9-4, 57-64, 50-39, 43-41, 26-25, 53-20, 26-24)
Ryan Kelly 1431-1134 (+297) (26-18, 27-19, 44-22, 19-20, 43-25, 27-23, 20-23, 28-25, 45-17, 59-35, 55-24, 50-38, 50-38, 27-29, 21-21, 31-23, 50-39, 71-50, 65-49, 53-61, 10-12, 14-19, 36-27, 31-31, 51-30, 57-33, 68-54, 37-42, 43-41, 33-48, 28-26, 51-42, 57-42, 31-19, 51-52)
Kyrie Irving 573-435 (+138) (65-39, 37-17, 67-32, 69-63, 61-58, 67-37, 74-73, 56-54, XX, XX, XX, XX, XX, XX, XX, XX, XX, XX, XX, XX, XX, XX, XX, XX, XX, XX, XX, XX, XX, XX, XX, XX, XX, XX, 37-27, 40-35)
Tyler Thornton 635-525 (+110) (20-17, 20-19, 35-26, 0-0, 0-6, 10-11, XX, 2-2, 16-17, 41-18, 12-20, 30-26, XX, 10-12, 26-18, 2-2, 16-17, 29-16, 52-27, 17-14, 16-26, 47-34, 27-31, 0-10, 29-19, 8-5, 45-30, 21-13, 25-24, 27-26, 2-10, 15-8, 7-6, 0-0, 28-15, XX)
Josh Hairston 314-284 (+30) (31-20, 18-22, 30-22, XX, 2-7, 12-16, XX, 2-2, 22-18, 32-18, 21-16, 41-28, XX, 8-13, XX, 4-11, 3-6, 15-13, 7-9, 0-3, 15-13, 2-2, 7-15, XX, XX, 2-3, 4-6, 5-2, XX, XX, XX, 0-0, 3-4, 0-0, 28-15, XX)
Todd Zafirovski 18-24 (-6) (XX, 2-6, 8-8, XX, XX, XX, XX, XX, 2-2, XX, XX, XX, XX, XX, XX, XX, XX, XX, XX, XX, XX, 0-4, XX, XX, XX, XX, XX, XX, XX, XX, XX, XX, XX, 6-4, XX)
Casey Peters 23-33 (-10) (XX, 2-6, 12-10, XX, 0-3, XX, XX, 0-2, XX, 2-2, 0-0, XX, XX, XX, XX, XX, XX, XX, XX, XX, XX, XX, 0-4, XX, XX, XX, XX, XX, XX, 1-0, XX, XX, 0-2, XX, 6-4, XX)

PER 40 MINUTES
Miles Plumlee +20.36
Kyrie Irving +20.29
Kyle Singler +18.90
Nolan Smith +17.77
Andre Dawkins +17.46
Seth Curry +16.87
Ryan Kelly +16.30
Mason Plumlee +15.28
Tyler Thornton +13.54
Josh Hairston +7.36
Todd Zafirovski -21.82
Casey Peters -23.53

LINEUPS
Smith-Curry-Dawkins-Singler-Miles (149-96, x42, 53)
Smith-Curry-Dawkins-Singler-Kelly (116-68, x27, 48)
Smith-Curry-Singler-Mason-Miles (225-182, x45, 43)
Smith-Curry-Singler-Mason-Kelly (304-265, x66, 39)
Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Mason-Miles (108-69, x23, 39)
Irving-Smith-Singler-Mason-Kelly (111-76, x20, 35)
Irving-Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Mason (122-89, x21, 33)
Smith-Curry-Dawkins-Singler-Mason (204-174, x50, 30)
Smith-Curry-Singler-Kelly-Miles (168-138, x40, 30)
Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Mason-Kelly (153-127, x44, 26)
Thornton-Smith-Curry-Singler-Kelly (38-12, x10, 26)
Irving-Smith-Singler-Mason-Miles (56-32, x8, 24)
Thornton-Smith-Curry-Singler-Mason (75-56, x20, 19)
Irving-Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Miles (45-27, x13, 18)
Irving-Curry-Dawkins-Singler-Miles (27-11, x7, 16)
Curry-Dawkins-Singler-Kelly-Miles (28-15, x7, 13)
Thornton-Curry-Singler-Mason-Miles (17-4, x4, 13)
Irving-Smith-Curry-Singler-Miles (31-19, x8, 12)
Irving-Thornton-Dawkins-Hairston-Kelly (22-11, x2, 11)
Curry-Dawkins-Singler-Mason-Kelly (21-10, x4, 11)
Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Hairston-Kelly (16-5, x4, 11)
Smith-Curry-Dawkins-Mason-Kelly (13-3, x7, 10)
Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Kelly-Miles (95-86, x28, 9)
Thornton-Smith-Singler-Mason-Kelly (51-42, x16, 9)
Thornton-Smith-Singler-Kelly-Miles (33-25, x8, 8)
Thornton-Smith-Curry-Kelly-Miles (17-9, x3, 8)
Smith-Curry-Dawkins-Mason-Miles (8-0, x2, 8)
Thornton-Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Miles (21-14, x12, 7)
Thornton-Smith-Curry-Singler-Miles (28-22, x11, 6)
Thornton-Curry-Singler-Hairston-Kelly (11-5, x2, 6)
Irving-Thornton-Smith-Kelly-Miles (10-4, x1, 6)
Thornton-Smith-Singler-Mason-Miles (20-15, x5, 5)
Thornton-Curry-Singler-Mason-Kelly (16-11, x4, 5)
Thornton-Curry-Dawkins-Mason-Kelly (13-8, x3, 5)
Smith-Curry-Dawkins-Hairston-Kelly (7-2, x1, 5)
Curry-Dawkins-Singler-Mason-Miles (21-17, x6, 4)
Curry-Dawkins-Singler-Hairston-Mason (8-4, x1, 4)
Smith-Curry-Dawkins-Hairston-Miles (6-2, x3, 4)
Thornton-Curry-Singler-Kelly-Miles (6-2, x2, 4)
Smith-Curry-Singler-Hairston-Kelly (4-0, x2, 4)
Curry-Peters-Dawkins-Hairston-Miles (4-0, x1, 4)
Thornton-Curry-Dawkins-Singler-Mason (11-8, x3, 3)
Thornton-Smith-Curry-Dawkins-Singler (10-7, x5, 3)
Smith-Curry-Dawkins-Hairston-Mason (10-7, x3, 3)
Irving-Curry-Dawkins-Mason-Miles (8-5, x2, 3)
Irving-Smith-Dawkins-Hairston-Kelly (4-1, x1, 3)
Thornton-Dawkins-Singler-Mason-Miles (3-0, x3, 3)
Irving-Thornton-Dawkins-Singler-Mason (3-0, x2, 3)
Thornton-Curry-Dawkins-Hairston-Kelly (20-18, x4, 2)
Irving-Smith-Curry-Dawkins-Kelly (10-8, x1, 2)
Irving-Dawkins-Singler-Mason-Kelly (9-7, x4, 2)
Thornton-Smith-Dawkins-Hairston-Miles (9-7, x1, 2)
Irving-Thornton-Peters-Hairston-Zafirovski (6-4, x1, 2)
Irving-Curry-Singler-Mason-Miles (4-2, x2, 2)
Irving-Thornton-Curry-Hairston-Kelly (4-2, x1, 2)
Irving-Smith-Singler-Hairston-Mason (3-1, x1, 2)
Curry-Dawkins-Singler-Hairston-Miles (2-0, x2, 2)
Irving-Thornton-Smith-Mason-Kelly (2-0, x1, 2)
Thornton-Smith-Curry-Dawkins-Hairston (2-0, x1, 2)
Thornton-Smith-Singler-Hairston-Kelly (2-0, x1, 2)
Thornton-Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Mason (30-29, x12, 1)
Smith-Curry-Singler-Hairston-Mason (17-16, x6, 1)
Thornton-Curry-Hairston-Kelly-Miles (9-8, x2, 1)
Irving-Smith-Curry-Mason-Kelly (8-7, x3, 1)
Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Hairston-Mason (8-7, x3, 1)
Thornton-Dawkins-Singler-Hairston-Miles (8-7, x3, 1)
Thornton-Smith-Singler-Hairston-Miles (7-6, x1, 1)
Thornton-Smith-Curry-Hairston-Miles (6-5, x1, 1)
Irving-Dawkins-Singler-Hairston-Mason (4-3, x1, 1)
Thornton-Smith-Dawkins-Hairston-Mason (3-2, x3, 1)
Thornton-Smith-Curry-Hairston-Kelly (3-2, x1, 1)
Irving-Smith-Curry-Hairston-Mason (2-1, x2, 1)
Smith-Curry-Peters-Singler-Kelly (1-0, x1, 1)
Irving-Smith-Singler-Kelly-Miles (5-5, x4, 0)
Thornton-Curry-Dawkins-Singler-Miles (5-5, x3, 0)
Thornton-Smith-Curry-Singler-Hairston (4-4, x2, 0)
Thornton-Curry-Singler-Hairston-Miles (2-2, x2, 0)
Irving-Curry-Dawkins-Singler-Kelly (2-2, x1, 0)
Irving-Smith-Dawkins-Hairston-Mason (2-2, x1, 0)
Curry-Peters-Dawkins-Mason-Kelly (0-0, x1, 0)
Irving-Curry-Singler-Kelly-Miles (0-0, x1, 0)
Thornton-Curry-Hairston-Mason-Kelly (0-0, x1, 0)
Thornton-Dawkins-Hairston-Mason-Kelly (0-0, x1, 0)
Thornton-Peters-Dawkins-Hairston-Kelly (0-0, x1, 0)
Thornton-Smith-Dawkins-Mason-Kelly (0-0, x1, 0)
Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Hairston-Miles (21-22, x7, -1)
Thornton-Smith-Dawkins-Kelly-Miles (12-13, x4, -1)
Irving-Smith-Curry-Dawkins-Mason (7-8, x2, -1)
Irving-Dawkins-Singler-Kelly-Miles (6-7, x3, -1)
Irving-Curry-Dawkins-Mason-Kelly (5-6, x2, -1)
Thornton-Dawkins-Singler-Kelly-Miles (2-3, x2, -1)
Thornton-Smith-Curry-Hairston-Mason (0-1, x1, -1)
Thornton-Curry-Dawkins-Hairston-Miles (18-20, x5, -2)
Irving-Curry-Dawkins-Singler-Mason (11-13, x6, -2)
Irving-Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Kelly (5-7, x6, -2)
Irving-Curry-Singler-Mason-Kelly (4-6, x1, -2)
Thornton-Dawkins-Singler-Hairston-Kelly (4-6, x1, -2)
Irving-Smith-Dawkins-Kelly-Miles (2-4, x2, -2)
Irving-Thornton-Dawkins-Hairston-Mason (0-2, x1, -2)
Thornton-Curry-Peters-Dawkins-Hairston (0-2, x1, -2)
Thornton-Curry-Peters-Hairston-Miles (0-2, x1, -2)
Thornton-Smith-Dawkins-Hairston-Kelly (0-2, x1, -2)
Smith-Curry-Singler-Hairston-Miles (18-21, x5, -3)
Irving-Smith-Curry-Mason-Miles (3-6, x1, -3)
Irving-Smith-Curry-Singler-Mason (24-28, x11, -4)
Thornton-Curry-Peters-Hairston-Zafirovski (12-16, x3, -4)
Thornton-Smith-Curry-Mason-Kelly (7-11, x3, -4)
Smith-Curry-Dawkins-Singler-Hairston (5-9, x3, -4)
Thornton-Curry-Dawkins-Kelly-Miles (2-6, x3, -4)
Irving-Smith-Curry-Singler-Kelly (0-4, x2, -4)
Thornton-Peters-Dawkins-Hairston-Zafirovski (0-4, x1, -4)
Smith-Curry-Dawkins-Kelly-Miles (16-21, x9, -5)
Thornton-Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Kelly (13-18, x3, -5)
Thornton-Curry-Dawkins-Mason-Miles (11-16, x4, -5)
Thornton-Dawkins-Singler-Mason-Kelly (2-7, x3, -5)
Thornton-Curry-Peters-Hairston-Kelly (0-5, x2, -5)
Irving-Smith-Singler-Hairston-Miles (0-5, x1, -5)
Irving-Smith-Dawkins-Mason-Kelly (5-11, x4, -6)
Irving-Smith-Curry-Dawkins-Singler (1-9, x3, -8)
Thornton-Curry-Dawkins-Hairston-Mason (24-33, x8, -9)

NET +/-

Net On Off On Off Net
per 40 per 40 per 40
Singler 13.82 18.90 5.08 591 24 567
Miles 5.70 20.36 14.66 312 303 9
Smith 4.69 17.77 13.08 546 69 477
Irving 3.96 20.29 16.34 138 477 -339
Dawkins 0.79 17.46 16.67 330 285 45
Curry -0.57 16.87 17.45 386 229 157
Kelly -1.59 16.30 17.89 297 318 -21
Thornton -4.58 13.54 18.12 110 505 -395
Mason -4.99 15.28 20.27 351 264 87
Hairston -10.96 7.36 18.32 30 585 -555
Zafirovski -39.20 -21.82 17.38 -6 621 -627
Peters -41.10 -23.53 17.57 -10 625 -635

[pfrduke]

I was asked, in a private message, to explain the net +/- numbers, and figured it would be useful to have in this thread.

Net +/- evaluates the person's +/- relative to the team's performance. After all, how good an individual's +10 is depends, somewhat, on whether the team as a whole ended up losing by 10 or winning by 30.

There are six columns in the table. On refers to the player's actual +/-; the team's margin while that player is on the court. Off, then, refers to the team's +/- while the player is off the court. On and Off will always add up to the team's total margin (which, through the Colgate game, is +123). Net is simply the difference between those two numbers. Over the course of the season, though, the raw Net sort of stops being informative; it ends up having more to do with how many minutes someone plays, rather than how well the team played when they were on the court. By putting everything into per 40 minutes numbers, we can eliminate the minutes bias. So On per 40 is the player's +/- per 40 minutes, Off per 40 is the team's +/- per 40 minutes while the player is off the court, and Net per 40 is the difference between the two. For the per 40 numbers, anything that is a positive number means that the team has played better while that player was on the court than while the player was off. So for Kyle, for example, through the Colgate the team has played ~33.5 points per game better when he's been on the court than when he's been on the bench.

Note that this also starts to lose a little impact over the course of the season because it doesn't weight for degree of difficulty (and because some of the bench guys play in games where we win by a lot and don't play much in closer games). For example, last season Olek was the leader in net +/-. But as between guys who are getting somewhat similar/regular playing time, it's a good way to see who has been relatively more valuable in terms of team performance.

[pfrduke]

Now updated through the Marquette game.

[COYS]

It's funny what a difference Andre at the three rather than Smith or Seth at the three makes. Irving, Smith, Dawkins, Singler Mason checks in with the best +/- while Irving, Smith, Seth, Singler, Mason fits in at the bottom. Small sample size, I know, but still interesting.

[superdave]

It's funny what a difference Andre at the three rather than Smith or Seth at the three makes. Irving, Smith, Dawkins, Singler Mason checks in with the best +/- while Irving, Smith, Seth, Singler, Mason fits in at the bottom. Small sample size, I know, but still interesting.

Yeah, do you think it's because Dawkins is more equipped to D up a 6'5'' or taller guy at the 3 than others in our backcourt? He seems thicker in the chest than them so he could be more physical, and if he's been going against Kyle in practice then it makes sense.

I think we're not going to have too much trouble scoring this year, so I try think about +/- from a defensive perspective more.

Super "Andre is busting his butt out there this year!" Dave

[COYS]

Yeah, do you think it's because Dawkins is more equipped to D up a 6'5'' or taller guy at the 3 than others in our backcourt? He seems thicker in the chest than them so he could be more physical, and if he's been going against Kyle in practice then it makes sense.

I think we're not going to have too much trouble scoring this year, so I try think about +/- from a defensive perspective more.

Super "Andre is busting his butt out there this year!" Dave

Definitely agree with you, Superdave. It's amazing what a difference a few extra inches and a bit of muscle makes on the defensive end. Andre has been playing a lot "taller" this year, too. I also think Seth is adjusting to playing off the ball, still. He's gotten good at running off of baseline screens to get open in the corner for three, but the rest of his movement off the ball still looks a little uncomfortable. He's such a gamer, though, I have no doubt that he will look like a natural soon enough. There's no doubt that he's much better guarding smaller 2's and opposing 1's than threes. I doubt we'll see the Smith, Curry, Irving, Kyle, Big guy lineups except in very specific situations.

[pfrduke]

Now updated through the Kansas State game.

[stickdog]

Singler has played 129 minutes so far this season. During those 129 minutes, Duke has outscored the opposition by 129 points (341-212), so during Singler's time on the floor Duke has been outscoring the opposition by an average of exactly one point per minute. Equalizing to 40 minutes, Duke has outscored the competition 106-66 with Singler on the court.

[pfrduke]

Now updated through the Oregon game.

[Spam Filter]

I took your stats and did a little readjustment to normalize for team margin of victory in the game. Just to see if the results would be significantly different. Because posting a +20 in a game where we won by 40 isn't as impressive as posting a +10 in a game we won by 5.

Here are the results, these are per 40 minutes, and note this is not an absolute scale, but a comparative scale. Just because a player has a negative number does not mean they are bad players, it just means they aren't as good compared to the other players on the team.

Singler 8.84
Plumlee, Mi 7.74
Smith 5.17
Dawkins 5.09
Irving 2.58
Plumlee, Ma 0.27
Kelly -3.62
Curry -12.55
Hairston -40.08
Thornton -40.08

I find it interesting under this scale Kyle and Nolan looks better and that the 3 best players on this scale are the 3 upper-classmen.

[superdave]

While this is unrelated to Duke, the NBA.com +/- database (http://www.nba.com/statistics/plusminus/plusminus_sort.jsp?pcomb=5&season=22010&split=9&team=)is pretty cool because all the different ways you can search it. Maybe some day, DBR...some day we can do this here!

I'm very unproductive today.

[pfrduke]

Now updated through the Michigan State game.

[pfrduke]

Now updated through the Butler game.

[Neals384]

Now updated through the Butler game.

Lot of off-season discussion of whether Singler would play the 3 or 4 position...

Thru the Butler game:

Lineups with 2 Guards, 2 Bigs & Singler (238-167, x53, +71) 58.8%
Lineups with 3 Guards, 1 Big and Singler (335-227, x89, +108) 59.6%
Lineups with 4 Guards & Singler (1-4, x2, -3)

% of points scored (Duke / Duke + Opponent) is just slightly better with Kyle at the 4.

Without Singler:
Lineups with 3 Guards & 2 Bigs (131-120, x44, +11)
Lineups with 4 Guards & 1 Big (9-10, x4, -1)

[Neals384]

Definitely agree with you, Superdave. It's amazing what a difference a few extra inches and a bit of muscle makes on the defensive end. Andre has been playing a lot "taller" this year, too. I also think Seth is adjusting to playing off the ball, still. He's gotten good at running off of baseline screens to get open in the corner for three, but the rest of his movement off the ball still looks a little uncomfortable. He's such a gamer, though, I have no doubt that he will look like a natural soon enough. There's no doubt that he's much better guarding smaller 2's and opposing 1's than threes. I doubt we'll see the Smith, Curry, Irving, Kyle, Big guy lineups except in very specific situations.

The numbers continue to support your observations.

Thru the Butler game:

Irving-Smith-Curry (69-73, x28, -4)
Thornton-Smith-Curry (9-8, x6, +1)

All other Curry combinations (229-164, x65, +65)

Play Curry with some big guys, including Dawkins, and the team does very well indeed!

[pfrduke]

Now updated through the Bradley game.

[pfrduke]

Now updated through the St. Louis game.

[pfrduke]

Now updated through the Elon game.

[pfrduke]

Now updated through the UNC-Greensboro game.

[pfrduke]

Now fully caught up and updated through the St. John's game.

[pfrduke]

Now updated through the second Maryland game.

[pfrduke]

Now updated through the UNC game.

[pfrduke]

Now updated through the Temple game.

[pfrduke]

Now updated through the Virginia Tech game.

[pfrduke]

Now updated through the Clemson game.

[pfrduke]

Now updated through the second UNC game.

[pfrduke]

Now updated through the Hampton game.

[pfrduke]

Now updated through the Michigan game.