Too Perimeter Oriented?

[kybluedevil]

So far, we've been shooting lights out, and driving well aggressively to the basket. Does anyone envision a tough NCAA game when the 3's are not falling, and we've not developed an inside threat w/ the Plumlees? (ala Kentucky vs WVU last year)

[uh_no]

So far, we've been shooting lights out, and driving well aggressively to the basket. Does anyone envision a tough NCAA game when the 3's are not falling, and we've not developed an inside threat w/ the Plumlees? (ala Kentucky vs WVU last year)

UK had an inside threat....they just decided it would be better to just shoot 3's

we will never go 0-20 from 3 because we don't take dumb shots, and we're a MUCh better 3pt shooting team that UK was last year

we also have a coach who won't let us be looking for potential final four matchups a game early.....

[Tim1515]

we are a MUCH better shooting team then UK was last year. Also, Nolan proved he could get to the rim last year during the tournament and Kyrie will be able to also. If the shots aren't falling from outside that will help and hopefully they can get the Plumlees some easy baskets.

Remember...we had very little inside scoring last year and won the NT.

[COYS]

UK had an inside threat....they just decided it would be better to just shoot 3's

we will never go 0-20 from 3 because we don't take dumb shots, and we're a MUCh better 3pt shooting team that UK was last year

we also have a coach who won't let us be looking for potential final four matchups a game early.....

WVU played a zone defense that prevented Wall from penetrating and getting into the paint. They had no real option for the high post and showed no dedication to finding a way to get Cousins the ball. Without any serious three point threats to force WVU out of that zone, the Mountaineers were content to collapse on Cousins, keep Wall out of the paint, and collect rebounds as the Wildcats destroyed the irons with brick after brick. We absolutely obliterated that same WVU team the following weekend in the final four.

We will go cold on some nights, but we have a number of good options for the high post to help us break down zones (Kyle, Mason, Ryan). The Cats also didn't have a single shooter who would beat out Kyrie, Nolan, Andre, Seth, or Kyle to make our top five. Even Ryan may prove to be better than any option on Kentucky last year.

I think it's very important for the Plums to be able to finish off of good passes, rebound and defend to establish themselves inside. That said, i don't see many parallels between last year's UK team and this year's Duke team.

[SCMatt33]

So far, we've been shooting lights out, and driving well aggressively to the basket. Does anyone envision a tough NCAA game when the 3's are not falling, and we've not developed an inside threat w/ the Plumlees? (ala Kentucky vs WVU last year)

Yeah, you know that perimeter oriented offense really killed us last year ;). Seriously, even if the Plumlees are only good enough inside to replace the big man production from last year, we have enough guys now who can get to the rim that we'll get enough layups and foul shots to not rely entirely on 3's. Even if we had to rely on 3's, out of the expected regular rotation, I'm comfortable with 6 guys (4 guards, Singler, and Kelly) taking them, so it's hard to imagine all of them going cold. I would be so ridiculously shocked if Duke ever came close to 0-20 that I'd wear baby blue around for a week after.

[MulletMan]

WVU played a zone defense that prevented Wall from penetrating and getting into the paint. They had no real option for the high post and showed no dedication to finding a way to get Cousins the ball. Without any serious three point threats to force WVU out of that zone, the Mountaineers were content to collapse on Cousins, keep Wall out of the paint, and collect rebounds as the Wildcats destroyed the irons with brick after brick. We absolutely obliterated that same WVU team the following weekend in the final four.

We will go cold on some nights, but we have a number of good options for the high post to help us break down zones (Kyle, Mason, Ryan). The Cats also didn't have a single shooter who would beat out Kyrie, Nolan, Andre, Seth, or Kyle to make our top five. Even Ryan may prove to be better than any option on Kentucky last year.

I think it's very important for the Plums to be able to finish off of good passes, rebound and defend to establish themselves inside. That said, i don't see many parallels between last year's UK team and this year's Duke team.

And that should probably take care of this line of questioning. Nice post.

[JasonEvans]

So far, we've been shooting lights out, and driving well aggressively to the basket. Does anyone envision a tough NCAA game when the 3's are not falling, and we've not developed an inside threat w/ the Plumlees? (ala Kentucky vs WVU last year)

Sigh...

It is not like the only scoring options are "hoist a 3" vs. "dump it in to a post player."


We have a lethal fastbreak attack that is keyed off our pressure defense.
We have a creative PG in Kyrie Irving who can get into the lane and create easy shots for our post players.
Kyle probably has the best mid-range game of any guy his size in college ball.
Nolan, Kyrie, Seth, and Andre have shown great ability to create their own shot off the dribble and each finish excellently in the lane.


I could go on and on. There will be games where the deep outside shots are not falling. In those games, we have many other weapons to score points. And lets not forget that we are a formidable defensive team too.

Lastly, while we have not needed to MP Bros to carry us offensively in a game thus far, they have certainly shown the ability to be an offensive option in the high and low post. They have excellent touch and hands and are blessed with great athleticism.

Bottom line, we have (by far) the best backcourt in the land. Most folks think our two backcourt subs would start on almost any other team in the land. We expect to generate most of our offensive production from those guys (as well as our POY-candidate forward). If that makes us "too perimeter oriented" of a team, I think it is more a blessing than a curse.

-Jason "way to bring the pessimism on your first post, by the way ;)" Evans

[DeBlueDevil]

I agree with Jason as far as the perimeter goes. Is this a flaw we may have to face as the year goes on yes. Not a huge one but yes. I as much don't really care about the offensive input the post give us as much as I do the physical prescence. If anything I would like to see Miles, Mason, and Ryan be more physical and intimidating. I think when we run into a team as good as us like a K-State or MSU that this could come to the forefront.

With that said I just go back to the point Jason already made. I think if we have a game where we are strugglin in any aspect of the game....I expect our 2 All American Seniors will identify the problem and take care of it accordingly. We won't have many games where they will have to take over but believe me I have full confidence that when our time comes (and it will come)...Nolan and Kyle will be right there pulling us through. Whether it be Nolan on the perimeter or Kyle sliding down in the post to help and give us more interior prescence...they'll be there

[superdave]

We have yet to see our guards/wings penetrate from the half-court set a whole lot this year because of the way the first two games were played. Give it a few weeks and I'm sure we'll all remark at how great all our 3-point shooting guards are at penetrating and either scoring, going to the line or getting Mason/Miles easy dunks when a team overplays the perimeter to take away the 3. But just because we have not seen it to date does not mean it's not going to be a strength.

Also, Kyle's mid range game and Ryan Kelly's hi-lo abilities will get us some easy buckets inside without the traditional Elton Brand big man drop step.

We have not looked like a well balanced team because we pounced on what two weaker teams gave us - fast breaks and 3 pointers. Not everyone will play us the same way. Also, one of the biggest things we learned last year was how much LT and BZ could effect the game without scoring. Screens, rotating on D, kicking out rebounds for opportunistic 3s are all just as important as Miles Plumlee chanelling Elton Brand or George Mikan.

[COYS]

I think if we have a game where we are strugglin in any aspect of the game....I expect our 2 All American Seniors will identify the problem and take care of it accordingly. We won't have many games where they will have to take over but believe me I have full confidence that when our time comes (and it will come)...Nolan and Kyle will be right there pulling us through.

This is a very good point. Even though we haven't needed them to will us to victory yet, I thought we caught a glimpse of what Nolan and Kyle can do to settle us down in our half court offense in the first game against Princeton. Our half court offense was a little disjointed and our fast break wasn't running smoothly during the first few minutes as the team settled down. Guess what happened. Kyle and Nolan took over in the half court, knocked down some jumpers and threes and shot something like 12-16 combined in the first half while the rest of the team was shooting in around 30% combined. That is exactly what we can expect from our two senior All Americans when the team is struggling.

[uh_no]

Lastly, while we have not needed to MP Bros to carry us offensively in a game thus far, they have certainly shown the ability to be an offensive option in the high and low post. They have excellent touch and hands and are blessed with great athleticism.


Maybe our definitions of touch are different, but I see the plumbros clang WAY too many close shots off the front iron to say they have 'good touch'....right now anyway.....yes they have some midrange game, but in close sometimes its still like spinning the wheel of fortune where more than the usual two segments have 'bankrupt' on them

[davekay1971]

HPR 1a and 1f...

I wish I'd read the HPR before my first few (several, couple hundred) posts and kindly refer kybluedevil to that invaluable resource...

[HCheek37]

we've seen 2 games in which we've been dominant and played against lesser competition.

already with the complaints/worries?

surprised this wasn't predicted in the 2010 season predictions thread

/thread

[OldPhiKap]

I'm concerned that we are too bench-dependent. After two games, we are relying on the bench for about 25% - 30% of our scoring. What happens when we run into a team that plays great bench defense?

Drat. A week into the season, and I already see the writing on the wall . . . .

[Indoor66]

I'm concerned that we are too bench-dependent. After two games, we are relying on the bench for about 25% - 30% of our scoring. What happens when we run into a team that plays great bench defense?

Drat. A week into the season, and I already see the writing on the wall . . . .

I agree. Coach K is playing too may guys too many minutes. We will never have cohesion with this approach. It is time for him to tighten down the rotation.

[tele]

I think most of these concerns could be addressed if Duke would just play more zone defense.

[camion]

I'm also worried about a team like Pitt that has superior free throw defense. Did you see what they did to Maryland last night?

[NSDukeFan]

I'm concerned that we are too bench-dependent. After two games, we are relying on the bench for about 25% - 30% of our scoring. What happens when we run into a team that plays great bench defense?

Drat. A week into the season, and I already see the writing on the wall . . . .


I agree. Coach K is playing too may guys too many minutes. We will never have cohesion with this approach. It is time for him to tighten down the rotation.

Thank you very much for this. Gave me an out loud chuckle. I wonder which teams play the best bench defense. When coach K figures that out, he will definitely have to tighten the rotation, so the bench doesn't get tired legs.

[dukelifer]

I think most of these concerns could be addressed if Duke would just play more zone defense.

Just think how successful Coach K would have been if he had just taken all the good advice offered by DBR posters.

[AZLA]

Considering Duke shot 40% from three-pointers in the last game, yet the total FG% was only 43% -- I'm not sure reliance on perimeter scoring is a concern as much as what the team defaults too when the post play is not consistent. It felt like Duke was making a concerted effort to feed the post, but Marshall in particular would get driven out and not have the ball until he was too far out to be effective. Regardless, he played well IMO and will improve drastically this season once he gets those inside shots to fall.

If there's an early improvement point, look at the 57% free-throw average from the first half. If the bigs aren't hitting their shots consistently in the paint due to being fouled, they need to up their free throw percentages. That's where there might be some concern down the road regarding the inside game.

[Kedsy]

It felt like Duke was making a concerted effort to feed the post, but Marshall in particular would get driven out and not have the ball until he was too far out to be effective.

Well, you have to remember that Marshall is still in high school. It's quite a feat for him to do anything in a Division I college game.

[ChicagoCrazy84]

It's funny. My Dad is always asking me why Duke doesn't get the big, banger type guys down low like Boozer, Brand, or Williams. I don't ever know how to answer. Duke is not known (at least lately) for being a low post oriented team and maybe thats what has shied some of those guys away from us. They see us as more of a finesse team with the likes of Randolph, McRoberts, Singler, Kelly, and Plumlee.

Look at Adams who decided to go to GTown and Hibbert and Monroe. We don't have that on our resume lately. I don't care so much about the offense, its the defense, rebounding, and intimidation factor that I miss.

I don't like the fact that MPIII is the only big man coming in for 2011. I wish we could get a nice complimentary guy for him for the future but I don't know if we'll go after anyone.

[NSDukeFan]

It's funny. My Dad is always asking me why Duke doesn't get the big, banger type guys down low like Boozer, Brand, or Williams. I don't ever know how to answer. Duke is not known (at least lately) for being a low post oriented team and maybe thats what has shied some of those guys away from us. They see us as more of a finesse team with the likes of Randolph, McRoberts, Singler, Kelly, and Plumlee.

Look at Adams who decided to go to GTown and Hibbert and Monroe. We don't have that on our resume lately. I don't care so much about the offense, its the defense, rebounding, and intimidation factor that I miss.

I don't like the fact that MPIII is the only big man coming in for 2011. I wish we could get a nice complimentary guy for him for the future but I don't know if we'll go after anyone.

Too bad Nolan won't be around, I hear he would say "good job Marshall," "nice rebound Marshall," "way to box out."
I think our perimeter players and skilled big men will complement Marshall quite nicely in the future.

[Cameron]

Honestly, what everyone here is overlooking is Duke's inability to drive spaceships and race trucks. I'm truthfully not sure we have the personnel to do it. And that could prove unmanageable. I think maybe Casey Peters could do this, but, of course, he would also need to have a really big parachute.

It also wouldn't hurt to insert Horvath into the game here and there for an automatic three shot. He once hit 14 threes for Duke during a single trip to the free-throw line back in '01 versus the Portland Trail Blazers, which many forget. He won the presidency as Grover Cleveland in 1904 that same day.

K needs to awaken and fast.

[MChambers]

It's funny. My Dad is always asking me why Duke doesn't get the big, banger type guys down low like Boozer, Brand, or Williams. I don't ever know how to answer. Duke is not known (at least lately) for being a low post oriented team and maybe thats what has shied some of those guys away from us. They see us as more of a finesse team with the likes of Randolph, McRoberts, Singler, Kelly, and Plumlee.
Yes, like that finesse center we had last year. What was his name? Greg Koubek?

Seriously, guys like Boozer, Brand, and Williams aren't that common. The 91 and 92 teams were pretty good teams without such a player.

[UrinalCake]

First off, I don't buy the argument of "we have a lot of good shooters, therefore everyone can't go cold at the same time." At the start of a game, the team has no way of knowing who will be hot that night and who will be cold. If a guy misses his first two shots, should he then just stop shooting for the rest of the night on the assumption that he's cold? Think about Scheyer's performance in last year's ACC tournament final. He was something like 0-10 from three heading into the last thirty seconds of the game, then nailed what was essentially the game-winner. Every shot is an independent event, so within the context of the game there's no real way to determine whether a player is "hot" or "cold." So I think it's entirely possible that we could have a night where as a team we shoot poorly.

That said, the statement "They are likely to lose if they have a poor shooting night" is often said about Duke, but the same could be said about any team. Even when Wake Forest had Tim Duncan, who was arguably the best big man in college history in terms of dumping him the ball and getting a basket, still needed his guards to make shots. If they were having a cold shooting night, then defense could simply collapse around Duncan. So yes, we are vulnerable if we don't shoot well, but that's simply a fact of the game of basketball.

[calltheobvious]

What if, sometime during the tournament, the alphabet simply vaporizes, forcing the team to speak in numbers?

[OldPhiKap]

Simply stated, we are just a Marty Pocious short of championship material.

[Kedsy]

It's funny. My Dad is always asking me why Duke doesn't get the big, banger type guys down low like Boozer, Brand, or Williams.

Well, we got Boozer, Brand, and Williams. And that covers 9 of the past 13 years. And as someone else pointed out we had Zoubek during the other 4 years, whether or not he played major minutes, and we have Miles Plumlee. I don't think Adams would have played any more than Z or Miles for his first couple years anyway.


Look at Adams who decided to go to GTown and Hibbert and Monroe. We don't have that on our resume lately. I don't care so much about the offense, its the defense, rebounding, and intimidation factor that I miss.

You think Monroe was a "big banger type guy down low"? That sure was never my impression of him. I think the idea that Duke can't get a big man is just another fine myth.

[JasonEvans]

The big concern of mine is recruiting. Ever since K took on that "summer internship" with Team USA, he simply cannot recruit. We missed on Patterson and Monroe. I doubt we ever get another top 10 recruit.

-Jason "this is a fun little game for us longtimers!" Evans

[Saratoga2]

I agree with Jason as far as the perimeter goes. Is this a flaw we may have to face as the year goes on yes. Not a huge one but yes. I as much don't really care about the offensive input the post give us as much as I do the physical prescence. If anything I would like to see Miles, Mason, and Ryan be more physical and intimidating. I think when we run into a team as good as us like a K-State or MSU that this could come to the forefront.

With that said I just go back to the point Jason already made. I think if we have a game where we are strugglin in any aspect of the game....I expect our 2 All American Seniors will identify the problem and take care of it accordingly. We won't have many games where they will have to take over but believe me I have full confidence that when our time comes (and it will come)...Nolan and Kyle will be right there pulling us through. Whether it be Nolan on the perimeter or Kyle sliding down in the post to help
and give us more interior prescence...they'll be there

We won't have to speculate on what will happen, since we will probably play Kansas State and we will play MSU. If Kyle has an off night or Kyrie gets into foul trouble (both have already happened) we might have to place more reliance on our inside players. Are they aggressive enough rebounders and up to putting points on the board against good defenses? We shall see.

It is worth considering that both KState and MSU have their own areas of weakness and we will be attempting to exploit these. I look forward to seeing us against really solid competition.

Golgate is not a good measure for the team and is more like an exhibition game. Marquette will be the first significant challenge.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Look at Adams who decided to go to GTown and Hibbert and Monroe. We don't have that on our resume lately. I don't care so much about the offense, its the defense, rebounding, and intimidation factor that I miss.

I don't like the fact that MPIII is the only big man coming in for 2011. I wish we could get a nice complimentary guy for him for the future but I don't know if we'll go after anyone.

Right, our defense is downright awful and every team we play this year has the Duke game circled on their calendars as an easy win against a wimpy team.

I just wish we could find a "banger" who will end the drought and lead us to a national championship.

[Cameron]

Actually, JasonEvans, what really disintegrated our program from the realm of the elite was Nolan Smith transferring. If he were still here things could be different and K might not have retired due to old age and forgetting basketball and then replaced by Bruce Pearl.

Also, if our coach of centers would just be 17-foot tall like all the other coaches of centers around the nation... Well that's just too painful to think about. Our collection of titles in that scenario would have been something to fawn over.

[OldPhiKap]

We need a new arena. With luxury boxes.

Who wants to come and play in a gym built during the FDR Administration, anyway?

[Kedsy]

First off, I don't buy the argument of "we have a lot of good shooters, therefore everyone can't go cold at the same time." At the start of a game, the team has no way of knowing who will be hot that night and who will be cold. If a guy misses his first two shots, should he then just stop shooting for the rest of the night on the assumption that he's cold? Think about Scheyer's performance in last year's ACC tournament final. He was something like 0-10 from three heading into the last thirty seconds of the game, then nailed what was essentially the game-winner.

No he shouldn't stop shooting if he misses his first couple of shots. Shooters should keep shooting. Although there's also the idea of feeding the hot hand, so if player A misses his first few shots but player B makes his first few then the team might make a more concerted effort to get player B open while he's hot.


Every shot is an independent event, so within the context of the game there's no real way to determine whether a player is "hot" or "cold."

This might be true if the players were machines. But I don't think every shot is a completely independent event. It's probably mostly a confidence thing, or possibly a subconscious mechanics thing, but from my experience playing and watching basketball there is definitely such a thing as a "hot shooter" or a "cold shooter" and everyone on the floor knows who is hot and who is cold at any particular moment.


So I think it's entirely possible that we could have a night where as a team we shoot poorly.

Of course it's possible we could have a game where we shoot poorly. But there's "poor" and there's "disastrous."

I think the real point is that, for example, in 2009 when we only had two guys with 3-point percentages higher than 35% and they both went cold against Villanova it was difficult to pick up the slack. It's not that uncommon for two guys to go cold on the same day.

This year if our top two shooters go cold we still have three or four more 35%+ three-point shooters to pick them up. It's much less likely for five or six guys to go cold at the same time than it is for two or three. Doesn't mean it's impossible, but it is much less likely.

[OldPhiKap]

^^ That's why defense is key. If the other team isn't scoring, you're always in the game even if you are having trouble putting it in the bucket.

[Kedsy]

^^ That's why defense is key. If the other team isn't scoring, you're always in the game even if you are having trouble putting it in the bucket.

I completely agree with this. I was just responding to UC's post about the entire team going cold.

[gam7]

I agree with the sentiment of the comedians in this thread. But I do think that over-reliance on outside shooting could at some point be a legit concern on a micro level (i.e., on an individual basis). E.g., I'd hate to see Kyle become an outside shooter only. I like it (and think he's better) when he mixes it up inside on the offensive end as well as gunning from outside. At this point though I'm not worried about much yet.

gam "Jason Evans has more (and longer) nicknames than anyone on earth" 7

[juise]

E.g., I'd hate to see Kyle become an outside shooter only. I like it (and think he's better) when he mixes it up inside on the offensive end as well as gunning from outside. At this point though I'm not worried about much yet.

I don't think we have any data to suggest that this is a legit concern. I think his offensive game has become more and more diverse during his career at Duke. (I'm extremely excited to see him play in person for the first time in 8 days!)

[Indoor66]

We need a new arena. With luxury boxes.

Who wants to come and play in a gym built during the FDR Administration, anyway?

Keep what we got, lower the floor and take out the reporters from side court. That will do it.

[OldPhiKap]

Keep what we got, lower the floor and take out the reporters from side court. That will do it.

I was thinking of raising the floor like Vandy, actually. Except instead of it being a three foot drop, make it about thirty. We'll see who's man enough to dive for out-of-bounders.

[Dukeface88]

I was thinking of raising the floor like Vandy, actually. Except instead of it being a three foot drop, make it about thirty. We'll see who's man enough to dive for out-of-bounders.

Kyle probably would. I don't think he has any sense of self-preservation whatsoever. Not that he needs one, being a Terminator and all.

I'd feel sorry for the people he lands on though.

[Lord Ash]

It is ironic to me that so many people were SO quick to jump on the original poster and basically mock for three pages...

And now... woof. 5-17 at the half from three.

[Indoor66]

It is ironic to me that so many people were SO quick to jump on the original poster and basically mock for three pages...

And now... woof. 5-17 at the half from three.

All that matters is the score...check that - up 18.

[davekay1971]

Dino Gaudio himself just said Duke relies too much on the 3 and needs to develop more of an inside presense.

Frankly, this game is a great example of what happens when we're struggling to shoot as a team...we rely on defensive intensity, generating fast break points, getting to the line, and trademark Duke unselfish play. ie: it ain't always pretty, but they get the job done.

[Lord Ash]

All that matters is the score...check that - up 18.

Actually, against a team like Colgate only 3 games into a VERY young team, I am not sure all that matters really IS the score.

Honestly a lot of the looks were good... the shots just weren't going down. Still, seeing all those clanks, you do wish for a nice dump to the post...

[Lord Ash]

Ah, there we go. Thank you, law of averages:)

I guess we can address this again after the game:)

[Vincetaylor]

Our guys on the interior need to do a better job for us to win the championship. That's obvious. We have to rely on the perimeter so much because they have been sucking so far.

[Indoor66]

Our guys on the interior need to do a better job for us to win the championship. That's obvious. We have to rely on the perimeter so much because they have been sucking so far.

Yeah, 50 point wins suck