Oden's end

[JasonEvans]

I am sure most of you have heard by now that Greg Oden is having microfracture (http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/blog/ball_dont_lie/post/Greg-Oden-just-can-t-catch-a-break-out-for-the;_ylt=AsPqZgYfT.a6mXMkGFpraZa8vLYF?urn=nba-286903) surgery again. He will miss the entire season. The surgery this time is on his left knee. Last time is was on his right knee.

Some are saying that this is the end of his career or, at least, that this shows his body simply cannot support an NBA career and he will never be much of an impact player.

There is little question that, looking back on the 2007 draft, taking Oden over Kevin Durant will prove to be a mistake not entirely dissimilar to when Portland took Sam bowie instead of some dude who wore #23.

So, I ask all of you to be honest... think back on what you were feeling in the days before the 2007 draft. Would you have taken Durant before Oden?

I remember my feelings clearly-- I would go with the big fella.

--Jason "I felt Durant was more ready to dominate on day one, but Oden was the better long-term pick -- centers are hard to find" Evans

[Bluedog]

I am sure most of you have heard by now that Greg Oden is having microfracture (http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/blog/ball_dont_lie/post/Greg-Oden-just-can-t-catch-a-break-out-for-the;_ylt=AsPqZgYfT.a6mXMkGFpraZa8vLYF?urn=nba-286903) surgery again. He will miss the entire season. The surgery this time is on his left knee. Last time is was on his right knee.

Some are saying that this is the end of his career or, at least, that this shows his body simply cannot support an NBA career and he will never be much of an impact player.

There is little question that, looking back on the 2007 draft, taking Oden over Kevin Durant will prove to be a mistake not entirely dissimilar to when Portland took Sam bowie instead of some dude who wore #23.

So, I ask all of you to be honest... think back on what you were feeling in the days before the 2007 draft. Would you have taken Durant before Oden?

I remember my feelings clearly-- I would go with the big fella.

--Jason "I felt Durant was more ready to dominate on day one, but Oden was the better long-term pick -- centers are hard to find" Evans

Unfortunate for Oden...Never wish that on anybody. If Coach K was an NBA GM, he would have chosen Durant. I distinctly recall him saying that Durant was the best player in the NCAA, which is rare for him to say about a freshman. I didn't really have an opinion at the time. A lot of people questioned Durant's strength/fragility. He couldn't do a single rep of the bench press as I recall. But man, does he know how to play! Another thing that annoyed me about Oden was the blatant push in the back against Xavier in the NCAA tournament when trying to foul. Should have been intentional/flagrant, haha. Clearly, wasn't go for the ball. Just pushed a dude out of bounds after a reboudn. I can't believe Xavier lost that game...they had it in their hands. Conley (not Oden) carried the team in the end though.

[rhcpflea99]

I would have chosen Greg, his potential was through the roof. I remember him playing with his left hand (right hand injured)and being better than most big are with there right hand.

[Reddevil]

I recall seeing them as equalls, and would have made the pick based on need - woops!

This stinks for the young man though, and for basketball. He has a great sense of humor, and would have been a fan favorite with all the endorsements. Best of luck to him.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I don't know if I would have taken Durant over Oden, it's all a crap shoot and you are drafting talent along with the hopes of health. I do hope Oden has wisely stashed his money away since he assumingly has a ways to go before he earns a college degree.

[MChambers]

I would have chosen Greg, his potential was through the roof. I remember him playing with his left hand (right hand injured)and being better than most big are with there right hand.
I thought Oden was the right choice. I agree that he was amazing when playing with his left hand.

It's very sad.

[roywhite]

Easy to say in hindsight, but I had concerns about Oden's durability at the time of the draft. I can't claim to have known how good Durant would be.

This may be superficial and unfair, but I found Oden's facial appearance---looking so much older than his age---to be unusual and perhaps suggestive of physical difficulties.

At any rate, he's always seemed like a good guy, and it's a shame he's had such physical problems. Hopefully, he's been careful with his money and can live comfortably.

[NSDukeFan]

I thought Oden was the right choice. I agree that he was amazing when playing with his left hand.

It's very sad.

I also would have gone with Oden and figured he would step in and be one of the three or four best centers in the league right away and be one of the most dominant inside players for years. I hope he gets a chance to come back and to a lesser degree feel sad for Portland as well. I thought when they had Roy, Aldridge, Bayless, Oden, Outlaw, Miller, Fernandez, that they would be contending in the West for years.

[pfrduke]

Timely, and funny (http://www.theonion.com/articles/careless-blazers-goofing-around-with-basketball-sh,18448/).

As an aside, I moved to Seattle almost immediately following the 2007 draft, and was so excited about Durant that I bought Sonics season tickets for that season (it helped that the stadium was a 5 minute walk from my house and the tickets were $10/seat). Had they ended up with Oden, I don't believe that I would have done so. Not to say that I knew at the time that he wouldn't be as good, but there wasn't (to me at least) the aura around going to see him play that there was around Durant.

[Kedsy]

So, I ask all of you to be honest... think back on what you were feeling in the days before the 2007 draft. Would you have taken Durant before Oden?

I know everybody around here hates Bill Simmons, but before the 2007 draft he wrote a long column about this and among other points relayed a story about seeing Oden at one of the pre-draft events and saying he walked like an old man and that his legs would probably give out on him. I was already leaning slightly toward Durant at the time, because I felt after watching Oden at the Final Four that he would have difficulties staying out of foul trouble in the NBA. Although I did think Oden could possibly be justified depending on need. But Simmons's column convinced me that Durant was the choice no matter what.

Back in 1984, we all knew Portland blew it by taking Bowie ahead of Jordan, but I thought then (and still think now, based on the information available at the time) that Houston made the right call taking Olajuwon.

[elvis14]

I remember posting that I would take Oden. My thoughts at the time were that great big men were hard to come by but that great swing men were all over the NBA. I underestimated how good Durant would be. Obviously, he's better than the good swing men that are all over the NBA. I feel bad for Oden and Portland. I had microfracture surgery not too long ago and healed just fine and I'm a lot older than Greg. I'm confident he can come back from this injury but if he's prone to injury, how long will it be before something else breaks?

[jimsumner]

I also would have picked Oden, under the theory that skinny, athletic wings are easier to find than athletic, skilled 7-1 post players.

Really sucks for Oden.

[SCMatt33]

This happens way too often with big men. Look at Yao Ming now with constant injuries. You can go back to Bill Walton (the Blazers have been through this before) and see that big men in the NBA are almost like NFL running backs. They can dominate the game like no one else, but it's rare to see one stay on top for too long. It makes you appreciate what a guy like Shaq has done in remaining a viable NBA player, even if he's only a role player now, for almost 20 years.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Zoub's is available.

[MChambers]

Wonder if Portland will ever again use a top 3 pick on a big man?

[jimsumner]

This happens way too often with big men. Look at Yao Ming now with constant injuries. You can go back to Bill Walton (the Blazers have been through this before) and see that big men in the NBA are almost like NFL running backs. They can dominate the game like no one else, but it's rare to see one stay on top for too long. It makes you appreciate what a guy like Shaq has done in remaining a viable NBA player, even if he's only a role player now, for almost 20 years.

Add Sam Bowie and Ralph Sampson to the oft-injured big man list.

Then again, guys like Russell, Jabbar, Parrish, Olajuwon and Ewing seemed to be relatively healthy. Chamberlain missed most of one season with a leg injury but returned in time for a memorable playoff run. I'm sure we could come up with lists of injury-prone guards. But the big men just stick out.

The worst big-man reach in NBA draft history was LaRue Martin. In 1972 the Portland Trail Blazers made him the first pick of the draft, leaving such notables as Robert McAdoo and Paul Westphal on the board. Martin lasted three or so desultory seasons before disappearing into well-deserved obscurity. And he didn't even have injuries to blame.

[JasonEvans]

I found it!!

We had this exact debate (http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?1333-Oden-or-Durant) more than 3 years ago when Oden and Durant were still in school. We even had a poll.

60% of DBR readers said they would pick Oden, 38% chose Durant, 1% picked Brandan Wright (oops!).

I am pleased to report that (so far) everyone seem to have the correct memory of how they felt at that time.

-Jason "No revisionist history on the DBR!" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Wonder if Portland will ever again use a top 3 pick on a big man?

LaMarcus Aldridge has worked out nicely so far for them. He was the #2 pick (Chicago drafted him, but Portland traded for him within minutes, IIRC).

--Jason "18 points and 8 boards ain't bad!" Evans

[Jderf]

I found it!!

We had this exact debate (http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?1333-Oden-or-Durant) more than 3 years ago when Oden and Durant were still in school. We even had a poll.

60% of DBR readers said they would pick Oden, 38% chose Durant, 1% picked Brandan Wright (oops!).

I am pleased to report that (so far) everyone seem to have the correct memory of how they felt at that time.

-Jason "No revisionist history on the DBR!" Evans

Unfortunately, I missed this debate since I wasn't a member at the time, but I've just now entered my vote and I can proudly say that I predicted Durant's inevitable emergence as one of the top players in the league. I sometimes surprise myself with my own foresight. ;)

Kidding, obviously. And it is definitely sad about Oden; hopefully his recovery goes well this time. It always hurts when injuries keep an athlete from filling out their potential, as Duke fans know well enough.

[Mike Corey]

What makes this all the sadder is that, by all accounts, Oden is a terrific human being.

Two major knee surgeries are an awful lot to overcome, particularly his career has sputtered because of health issues ever since arriving in the pros. Heck, he was injured--albeit in his upper body--for a significant chunk of his year at Ohio State.

[SilkyJ]

Its tough for me to recall, but I've got to imagine I voted in the Oden camp. Portland needed a big, dominant big man more than it needed a talented wing scorer (B Roy was an all star as a rookie, IIRC) and dominant big men win championships.

I'm actually surprised Durant got 40% of the vote. Where are all the Durant peeps to shove this in our face??

[superdave]

Its tough for me to recall, but I've got to imagine I voted in the Oden camp. Portland needed a big, dominant big man more than it needed a talented wing scorer (B Roy was an all star as a rookie, IIRC) and dominant big men win championships.

I'm actually surprised Durant got 40% of the vote. Where are all the Durant peeps to shove this in our face??

Too bad the old vote wasnt public. I think I was swayed by Bill Simmons' argument about Greg Oden actually being 28 years old, and voted for KDthunderup.

But Oden had a solid national championship game vs. Florida that could have thrown everyone off of Durant.

[nocilla]

I wasn't around for the previous poll either, but I do remember thinking that I would have taken Durant. I understood why they took Oden, for the same reasons some of you guys have stated. But I thought at the time that Durant was just a more talented player than Oden. This opinion may have been influenced by my fanhood of the Charlotte Hornets. I remembered us drafting the 7' George Zidek and the next year drafting Kobe Bryant only to trade him for the safer big man Vlade Divac. In 2007, I remember thinking Oden was the safer pick like Divac while Durant had the potential to be great, like Kobe. I don't mean that I thought Durant would be as good as Kobe, just that he had the potential to be real good in the same way that Kobe did coming into the league. Of course, I'm sure there are plenty of examples where the opposite worked out (Aldridge over Adam Morrison is one) but I think would have taken Durant.

[monkey]

Query: Is Greg Oden the poster child for why a college player _should_ leave early? I generally do not consider myself a proponent of early entry, however, if Oden had stayed in college having had the knee problems he's had, where would he have gotten drafted by senior year? Does he even get drafted?

[JasonEvans]

Too bad the old vote wasnt public. I think I was swayed by Bill Simmons' argument about Greg Oden actually being 28 years old, and voted for KDthunderup.

But Oden had a solid national championship game vs. Florida that could have thrown everyone off of Durant.

You posted in the thread-- here is what you wrote 3 years ago--



Oden

It took last night to convince me. But Oden's shotblocking has to be the difference between the two. Durant may wind up being better, but not likely by a whole lot.

Thad Matta got exposed last night as well. He saved ALL his timeouts to the last 90 seconds when his team was already out of gas and already down 10-11. He should have burned them every other minute starting with 8 minutes to go in order to give his boys a chance.

Oden and Conley would be wise to find better coaching at the next level.

Shoot, if I were a GM, I would try to trade up and get the 1 and the 2 picks in this draft!

--Jason "like me, you fell for the big man versus the more complete player - sigh" Evans

[superdave]

You posted in the thread-- here is what you wrote 3 years ago--

--Jason "like me, you fell for the big man versus the more complete player - sigh" Evans

Ouch. Oden was really good in that title game. I remember him blocking a shot about 11.5 feet up. He averaged 15.7 and 9.6 in 32 games that year.

What was his pre-season injury? A broken wrist?

Super "At least I know I would have voted against Jordan had we had a poll back in 1984 merely out of spite" Dave

[Mike Corey]

Yes, it was a wrist injury.

He--and Conley--came on very strong in March/April.

[superdave]

OK so I wrote I loved Oden on 4-3-2007, but I'm pretty sure my mind changed by the draft in June (at least that's my version of history).

Here's some other threads that include Oden vs. Durant:

Circa December 2008. (http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?13169-Greg-Oden&highlight=2007+draft) Jumbo loved Oden, lukewarm on Durant.

DBR's 2007 mock draft. (http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?2387-DBR-Mock-Draft-MAKE-PICKS-HERE!!&highlight=2007+draft) 1. Oden 2. Durant 3. Conley (Jason's pick)

2007 draft chat. (http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?2469-DBR-Draft-Chat&highlight=2007+draft) Bob Green declares Noah a bust!

This is fun....and dangerous to the ego.

[SMO]

I found it!!

[URL="http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?1333-Oden-or-Durant"]60% of DBR readers said they would pick Oden, 38% chose Durant, 1% picked Brandan Wright (oops!).

So we know 100 people voted and one of them was named Wheat/"/"/".

[pacificrounder]

I'm right there at the top of the thread Jason linked picking Oden, and rightfully so I think. Oden's a great player, he just can't stay healthy -- and dominant big men are a lot harder to come by. Plus, while we knew that Durant had a chance to be very, very good, I don't think anyone predicted he would be THIS good THIS soon.

[Kedsy]

Plus, while we knew that Durant had a chance to be very, very good, I don't think anyone predicted he would be THIS good THIS soon.

Well, Bill Simmons did. And I'm sure there were others. Durant was the national college player of the year as a freshman. People knew he'd put up the numbers.

[pacificrounder]

Well, Bill Simmons did. And I'm sure there were others. Durant was the national college player of the year as a freshman. People knew he'd put up the numbers.

I remember reading a Simmons' article not too long ago where he said that EVEN HE was surprised that Durant won the scoring title this soon. I'm sure there were a few big Durant fans, so I'll retract the "nobody" and replace it with "very few people." :cool:


You're right to get excited about Durant potentially becoming the best player of his generation. Just don't forget that LeBron isn't going anywhere. Just the fact that we're talking about this stuff is fantastic. I knew it would happen eventually, but when Durant was still 21????? Good golly. OK, back to the game.

[JohnGalt]

Well, Bill Simmons did. And I'm sure there were others. Durant was the national college player of the year as a freshman. People knew he'd put up the numbers.

Defense was Durant's big knock. As slight as he was/is who would he guard?

Well, it's turned out his length has mitigated whatever lack weight he maintains.

...

I really feel for the big guy. It's a fact of life some people aren't put together as well as others. And in a profession such as the NBA, those individuals have a tendency to be brought out. I hope he can bounce back, but it'll certainly be an uphill battle.

Good luck, Greg. I always thought you were classy on the court.

[ElSid]

leg length inequality?

i wasn't posting here back in the day but seemed to remember that everyone knew his legs were different lengths and that it could possibly contribute to some longevity problems. not sure that's what's causing it now, but there were definitely people who saw that as a warning sign.

[hq2]

Up here in Boston, we were following all of this very closely, hoping the C's would get the #1 (or 2) pick. In retrospect, we're lucky they didn't get it if they would have used it on Oden; think of how differently things would have gone down here if they had! At the time, however, I thought Durant was clearly the better player, and had more upside. For someone 6-9, he had great shooting and ball handling skills, and long arms too. Despite the fact that he was skinny, I believed his overall skill level was so high that he had to be a great NBA player.

I thought Oden was overrated at the time; he was a great rebounder and defensive player, but his offensive skills were rudimentary, and it was clear it would be years before he became a real offensive threat. And, he was already starting to show signs of being injury prone too. At the time, I viewed Durant as can't-miss, and Oden as a project, and that's how it played out too; a project that didn't work.

[Double DD]

Query: Is Greg Oden the poster child for why a college player _should_ leave early? I generally do not consider myself a proponent of early entry, however, if Oden had stayed in college having had the knee problems he's had, where would he have gotten drafted by senior year? Does he even get drafted?

I think he's one half of the poster. The other half should be Chris Marcus, who I'm sure most remember played at Western Kentucky at the beginning of the decade. He probably could have gone 1st overall in 2001 after his RS sophomore year but returned to get his degree.


He played one season of high school basketball but led the nation in rebounding in his second year of Division I. He values a college degree, a chief reason he'll return for his senior season. "The draft is just one night," he says.
- The Sporting News, June 2001

He entered the 01-02 as one of the contenders to go 1st overall. But then he played in only 15 games because of a stress fracture in his foot and had to withdraw from the 2002 draft after breaking it again in workouts.

He then returned as a 5th year senior but only played parts of 5 games because of recurrent foot injuries and surgeries and then went undrafted in 2003.

And this article details some of the unfortunate aftermath from his decision(s) in terms of the impact on his life.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espnmag/story?id=3742592

Chris went quiet again. During one game, a teammate nudged him. "Chris, what's up with you? It's like you're a million miles away." He was—back at Food Lion, back pushing carts, back pulling the drawstring tight on his hoodie. Why am I here if I'm not helping the team? Did I make a mistake not turning pro? He wore headphones on campus to avoid conversation and took different routes to class. Eager to please as always, he hurried his rehab—a decision he would regret. He couldn't calm himself. When the boys got together on the weekend to kick back and pry open a bottle, Chris held out his cup. He wasn't playing. This felt good. Pour me another.

He began spending nights alone in his room, just him and the booze. He hurried to finish a paper so he could get to his reward. He never had enough to pass out, but he always had enough to forget his fear. A few drinks became several, then a dozen, then more. But the fear, like the questions, always returned the next day.

What if I don't heal?


It's stories like this that make it difficult for me to criticize kids who enter the draft early out of college, even if their decisions might not always jibe with what I would personally do in their shoes.

[jacone21]

I'm actually surprised Durant got 40% of the vote. Where are all the Durant peeps to shove this in our face??

from the old thread...


I have to go with Durant on his versatility alone. The kid can play 2 and 3, 1 and 4 in spots. He can shoot, post up, midrange, run the floor, lead a break, pass, etc. I just think he'll have a more comprehensive, positive impact on my team than Oden. I think Durant is also more marketable (flashy) and will put butts in seats... and after all, it's all about the money. Oden has impressed me more and more as his wrist has healed. Watching that little hook shot develop has been impressive. But I'm not sold on him being the guy to lead a team to the promiseland. Durant is 18. I know potential is overused, but how good will he be in 4 years?

:cool:

[ice-9]

I remember not having a strong conviction either way, but have always wondered about this "Centers are rare, must get a Center" phenomenon among NBA insiders and followers. We have a tendency to way overvalue positions in basketball -- sometimes, it's simply about putting the five best players you possibly can on the court. Maybe because I was a short guy who often played in the post (and did OK) do I feel this way.

From that perspective, I would've taken Durant.

But I understood the pressure to take Oden; convention wisdom then was very strong that you simply had to go big, that Oden may not be as dynamic of a player as Durant but that he would likely improve your team more as a complementary piece.

[NSDukeFan]

I remember not having a strong conviction either way, but have always wondered about this "Centers are rare, must get a Center" phenomenon among NBA insiders and followers. We have a tendency to way overvalue positions in basketball -- sometimes, it's simply about putting the five best players you possibly can on the court. Maybe because I was a short guy who often played in the post (and did OK) do I feel this way.

From that perspective, I would've taken Durant.

But I understood the pressure to take Oden; convention wisdom then was very strong that you simply had to go big, that Oden may not be as dynamic of a player as Durant but that he would likely improve your team more as a complementary piece.

I think this conventional wisdom has changed a bit in the last few years, with the elimination of some of the hand checking in the pro game. This has increased the value of perimeter players who can get by their man as there is now not a way to stop them like there used to be.

[MChambers]

I think this conventional wisdom has changed a bit in the last few years, with the elimination of some of the hand checking in the pro game. This has increased the value of perimeter players who can get by their man as there is now not a way to stop them like there used to be.
I agree, although I'd say it's been going on a lot longer than a few years. Over the last 20 or so years, the game has largely moved away from having dominant big men to the point where wings can really be dominant.

[Edouble]

Zoub's is available.

Is is he?

[ThePublisher]

I don't remember what I thought then, but I know Oden looks like he is 45 years old, and that just can't be a good sign.

[superdave]

Simmons: Oden vs. Durant, June 22, 2007 (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/070622)

Simmons: Oden walks like a 50 year old man blog post. (http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/page2/blog/entry?id=3017742&searchName=simmons)

Can we give the Blazers a compensatory draft pick? They are close to being a contender out there (while Roy's knee holds up). Maybe they should tank this year and get Barnes or Sullinger. A more likely scenario is trying to figure out who they might get in a dispersal draft when Memphis goes away - Gasol, Conley or Rudy Gay...

[wva_iron_duke]

I remember discussing just this with a Duke friend before the draft and we both agreed it was a no-brainer to take Durant 1st. He led the nation in scoring and REbounding as a Frosh. Hello, who was the last player to do that? In probably the greatest hs game in the DC area since Dematha beat Lew Alcindor's Power Memorial, Durant's team with just Terps Vasquez and Millbourne(sp) beat Oak Hill with Beasley, Ty Lawson, Nolan Smith and others I can't recall. To me it was a no brainer from the outset. All that talk about you can't win an NBA title without a great center was ignoring the sure thing that Durant could score and rebound at any level and that the game was just easy for him.

[Kedsy]

I remember discussing just this with a Duke friend before the draft and we both agreed it was a no-brainer to take Durant 1st. He led the nation in scoring and REbounding as a Frosh. Hello, who was the last player to do that? In probably the greatest hs game in the DC area since Dematha beat Lew Alcindor's Power Memorial, Durant's team with just Terps Vasquez and Millbourne(sp) beat Oak Hill with Beasley, Ty Lawson, Nolan Smith and others I can't recall. To me it was a no brainer from the outset. All that talk about you can't win an NBA title without a great center was ignoring the sure thing that Durant could score and rebound at any level and that the game was just easy for him.

Actually, Durant was 4th in the nation (Division I) in scoring and 4th in rebounding. So I don't know who the last player was who was first in both, but it wasn't Durant.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Is is he?
Dammit! Let me correct the error of my ways...Zoubs is available. That apostrophe jumped out of nowhere and attacked me.

[Regenman]

As a Texas (and Duke) alum, I obviously favored Durant, but going back to Simmons point about Oden. I remember thinking the same thing. The guy moves like I do (a middle age guy who's torn 2 ACLS (ultimate frisbee) and a rotator cuff (tennis/volleyball)). I never thought he was that smooth.

[JasonEvans]

Actually, Durant was 4th in the nation (Division I) in scoring and 4th in rebounding. So I don't know who the last player was who was first in both, but it wasn't Durant.

Hank Gathers led the nation in both in 1988-89. He averaged 32.7 ppg and 13.7 rpg.

Hank, we still miss you and your infectious smile.

--Jason "http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSMtxO5PpQDZgIGvVxUznwze9n9-QvpdMWWsLV3pkhihtlb-L4thttp://t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQEo8Djaz3l9SzysKXL-EBV9fwNEq1Dl8T6XkwknereCtvkECJOkg" Evans

[Tim1515]

Oden did take OSU to the championship game and made them the place all bigmen want to go...so he has that.

[jipops]

This may be superficial and unfair, but I found Oden's facial appearance---looking so much older than his age---to be unusual and perhaps suggestive of physical difficulties.




Didn't seem to affect Robert Parrish's career too much.

I'm pretty sure I voted for Oden too.