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Jumbo
11-12-2010, 11:54 AM
The basketball season doesn't officially start until Jumbo christens it with a Phase 0 tome.

WE WANT JUMBO!
WE WANT JUMBO!

Everybody . . . WE WANT JUMBO.

He's working? Quit. Resign. Take a furlough. Sabbatical. Priorities, man, priorities.

Hi folks. I apologize for the long absence, but I've been swamped and will continue to be similarly swamped for a while. So, one of the things I haven't been able to do is follow Duke hoops nearly as closely as usual (which, in some ways, feels healthy and refreshing). And I've had to make the choice to essentially stop contributing the boards.

Right now, I can't see any way that I'll be able to handle the plus/minus stuff during the season, and I don't have the energy at the moment for a full phase post. I don't know if I'll be able to manage others going forward, either. But given the flattering number of callouts that Jason made me aware of, I do want to offer a mini phase post, which someone could feel free to move into a different thread. And mostly, I just want to thank everyone for all the fun over the years. I'll be back with a greater presence at some point, I suspect. Until then, chew on these questions I have going into the season.

1) Everyone knows how talented this group is, but how much will it miss the leadership and little things last year's three seniors brought?
I think the answer to this is "a lot" and it will be much harder to replace than some people think. Coach K is doing the right things to compensate -- playing faster, smaller, etc. -- and it's nice to have two seniors from a national championship team back to lead the way. But just as 2001-02 wasn't quite the same without Battier, so will this season be different without the combo of Scheyer, Zoubek and Thomas.

2) How will all the different agendas line up?
Last year's team seem focused on exactly one thing -- winning. Everyone had pretty well-defined roles and it was a veteran group. This year, though, Kyle and Nolan have to worry about draft position. Kyrie is likely to be one-and-done. Mason has thoughts about the draft. Curry has to adjust to coming off the bench. Dawkins has to fight for minutes with yet another talented player coming it at his position next year. There's Kelly vs. Hairston for PT. Competition is a good thing, but the focus still has to be on team success and recognizing that the other things will take care of themselves as a result.

3) Will FT shooting be a problem?
This worries me too. We're replacing an automatic guy in Scheyer. I'm not sure how good Kyrie will be from the line, but that's different in late-game situations. I expect the Plumlees to get to the line more often than Thomas and Zoubs, and neither makes me comfortable at the line. I could see this becoming an issue.

4) Who's the first big off the bench -- Kelly or Hairston?
I'm interested to see how that unfolds.

5) Can the Plumlees stop making so many mental mistakes?
It's unreasonable to expect them to have the dedication to screening, talking and interior defense that Thomas and Zoubek mastered. But the Plumlees have to be better than last season, when they routinely missed assignments. Simple as that.

6) Can Duke force enough turnovers to make up for last season's awesome offensive rebound and get enough easy baskets to make up for the total control Scheyer had over the game?
That's really what it comes down to with the new approach to match the new personnel. This team will look very different. Strengths have become weaknesses and weaknesses have become strengths. It's just a question of whether the tradeoffs come out as net positives, as they did last season.

7) How will this team operate in a late-game situation?
Last year's perimeter trio had the experience and chemistry of working together for years, so everything flowed smoothly. But if the ball is truly in Irving's hands, then that makes things a little more confusing in working with Nolan and Kyle. This will be something to watch early.

There are plenty of other things to consider, too, but I wanted to keep this somewhat brief. So, there you have it. Hope you all are doing well, and enjoy the game Sunday!

Lord Ash
11-12-2010, 11:57 AM
Yay!

Someone should definitely move this to a 2010-11 Phase 0 post.

Lemme ask; since Jumbo is very busy, how would people feel about maybe getting a volunteer to address each point in the next phases? Maybe folks whose posts everyone likes and who are trusted voices could pick up a phase each? Does this sound like a reasonable way to continue the "phase" tradition while giving a bunch of the expert voices here a chance to contribute over the year?

Newton_14
11-12-2010, 12:02 PM
Yay!

Someone should definitely move this to a 2010-11 Phase 0 post.

Lemme ask; since Jumbo is very busy, how would people feel about maybe getting a volunteer to address each point in the next phases? Maybe folks whose posts everyone likes and who are trusted voices could pick up a phase each? Does this sound like a reasonable way to continue the "phase" tradition while giving a bunch of the expert voices here a chance to contribute over the year?

Good idea. In my view, Jim Sumner would be the best person to stand in for Jumbo on this. If he is willing and has the time. Just my two cents!

pfrduke
11-12-2010, 12:53 PM
Right now, I can't see any way that I'll be able to handle the plus/minus stuff during the season, and I don't have the energy at the moment for a full phase post.

I intend to do this during the season (although I will need help during the first two weeks of January, when I will be in Africa and not able to keep up with the games).

Lord Ash
11-12-2010, 01:31 PM
Good idea. In my view, Jim Sumner would be the best person to stand in for Jumbo on this. If he is willing and has the time. Just my two cents!

The only problem is that Jim does this for a living... not sure you can ask someone who gets paid for this to do it for free on a message board:)

I was thinking maybe a selection of non-industry people would be best... so no Adam or Watzone or Jim, unless of course they want to! There are so many good contributors and writers here who I think would do great filling in, one at a time, for the different phases... say, Phase 1 could be Jason Evans, phase 2 could be -jk, and so on and so forth. Maybe we could do a nomination process where people nominate folks from the forums they really trust, and then a vote for your top six (or however many phases there are) and the top vote getters would each take over an "answering the phase" during the year?

Am I possibly overthinking this, or could it be fun?

superdave
11-12-2010, 02:55 PM
The only problem is that Jim does this for a living... not sure you can ask someone who gets paid for this to do it for free on a message board:)

I was thinking maybe a selection of non-industry people would be best... so no Adam or Watzone or Jim, unless of course they want to! There are so many good contributors and writers here who I think would do great filling in, one at a time, for the different phases... say, Phase 1 could be Jason Evans, phase 2 could be -jk, and so on and so forth. Maybe we could do a nomination process where people nominate folks from the forums they really trust, and then a vote for your top six (or however many phases there are) and the top vote getters would each take over an "answering the phase" during the year?

Am I possibly overthinking this, or could it be fun?

I do intend to be active in the Phase threads so I'll pitch in where I feel like I have something to offer. Perhaps we could establish a schedule for the Phases - here's a thought based on the schedule:

Phase 1 - Princeton through Butler - Who are we? stage.
Phase 2 - Bradley through Greensboro - Exams, Christmas and end of pre-ACC.
Phase 3 - Miami through NC State - first half of the ACC.
Phase 4 - UNC through Clemson - second half of the ACC.
Phase 5 - @UNC plus ACC tournament in Greensboro.
Phase 6 - NCAAs.

Perhaps we can get 2-3 people to agree to either start the thread or provide early and detailed questions, answers and insights. I'm not as insightful as Jumbo but am happy to help keep us organized and on task. Who's with me?

pfrduke
11-12-2010, 03:20 PM
I do intend to be active in the Phase threads so I'll pitch in where I feel like I have something to offer. Perhaps we could establish a schedule for the Phases - here's a thought based on the schedule:

Phase 1 - Princeton through Butler - Who are we? stage.
Phase 2 - Bradley through Greensboro - Exams, Christmas and end of pre-ACC.
Phase 3 - Miami through NC State - first half of the ACC.
Phase 4 - UNC through Clemson - second half of the ACC.
Phase 5 - @UNC plus ACC tournament in Greensboro.
Phase 6 - NCAAs.

Perhaps we can get 2-3 people to agree to either start the thread or provide early and detailed questions, answers and insights. I'm not as insightful as Jumbo but am happy to help keep us organized and on task. Who's with me?

I would suggest a very minor tweak, which is to bump each UNC game up into the prior phase (i.e., phase 3 takes us through UNC, and phase 4 takes us through @UNC). Otherwise, great looking split.

superdave
11-12-2010, 03:26 PM
1) Everyone knows how talented this group is, but how much will it miss the leadership and little things last year's three seniors brought?

2) How will all the different agendas line up?

3) Will FT shooting be a problem?

4) Who's the first big off the bench -- Kelly or Hairston?
I'm interested to see how that unfolds.

5) Can the Plumlees stop making so many mental mistakes?

6) Can Duke force enough turnovers to make up for last season's awesome offensive rebound and get enough easy baskets to make up for the total control Scheyer had over the game?

7) How will this team operate in a late-game situation?



Leadership on D - I started a thread on this a month ago and questioned whether Kyrie could fill the vocal role that LT left while also playing QB. I think he's up to it, but also think he will have to grow into and it will be a process.

Additionally, I think Miles has to be our anchor defensively with the pressure and gambling for steals that our guards and wings are going to be doing. We need Miles to be the last line of defense on D, and that will require communication from the back line and a lot of hustle. He can grow into this though.

I think Kyle will be our stopper though - he is going to want to guard the best player on the other team who is a 2-3-4 like LT did last year. I can see him quietly relishing this role.

Nolan will be the heart and soul of this team though. He's the Pied Piper!

Agendas and Ego - It's hard for me to imagine this will be a problem with Coach K there, the unity (and continuity) in the locker room that carried over from last year, and everyone buying into the opportunity to do something special.

Charity Stripe - Kyle (80%) and Nolan (77%) are going to have the ball in their hands a lot in the spread offense and in close games. I am not sure of KI's free throws from high school, but I'm guessing he's not going to be afraid to go to the line.

Miles (66%) and Mason (54%) must improve because they are going to get good touches in the paint this year playing with all these penetrators.

Kelly or Hairston? - I think this comes down to matchups - Josh runs the floor better while Ryan is great in the half court - and picking up the defensive assignments.
Hairston put up 7 and 5 in 13 vs. St. Augs while Kelly was 12 and 6 in 21.
Hairston was 7 and 4 in 16 vs. Pomona while Kelly was 2 and 4 in 9 but was credited with a big spark off the bench.

The Plums - This board has covered the growth of these two extensively. I think Miles is set to take off defensively (3rd season in the system). I also think both will be good finishers on the break and will get plenty of layup and dunk opportunities in the post. The key for both offensively is to finish the play. The key for both defensively is to buy into the defensive scheme - keep your assignments, rotate and hedge correctly, dont gamble for steals and blocks. Trust the system, not your playmaking athelticism. I suspect this is a source of heartburn for many on these boards, but they have a great chance to grow.

Controlling the Game - We have the talent to control the game against the cupcakes pretty easily, and the depth to bring in good talent should we lose focus. I'm more worried about turning into a happy-go-lucky team like the williams-Boozer-Dunleavy team of 2002 did. They have to stay hungry and focused and play with a chip. Kyle seems like that kind of competitor and Irving and Curry have talked about how hungry they are. I think this hunger is the key to Duke forcing turnovers and controlling the pace of the game for 40 minutes. Turnovers = Easy buckets.

Late Game Situations - We wont lack for ball handlers and gamers, and we can move Kyle to the 4 if the matchup favors us in order to bring in Curry. I think we have the rare luxury of having Kyle and Kyrie who hate to lose. We also get to play two big time games in a week in early December which will be good on the job training for the younger guys for the NCAAs. We'll grow into this, and I hope we have a few close ones along the way to get us there.

JasonEvans
11-12-2010, 03:40 PM
I don't know if I'll be able to manage others going forward, either. But given the flattering number of callouts that Jason made me aware of, I do want to offer a mini phase post,

I have been pestering my good friend Jumbo to make a reappearance on DBR and am thrilled he has. I will continue to pester him to keep up with the Phase threads going forward but if he cannot, I am more than happy to help out.

I like the idea of a few folks taking the lead on each different phase. It brings a fresh perspective to it, though we must be mindful of what the previous phase-writer asked and seek to continue obviously unanswered themes.

-Jason "Busy now, but I will have move later..." Evans

superdave
11-12-2010, 03:46 PM
I would suggest a very minor tweak, which is to bump each UNC game up into the prior phase (i.e., phase 3 takes us through UNC, and phase 4 takes us through @UNC). Otherwise, great looking split.

One reason to have UNC at the front of Phase is because of the post-UNC emotional hangover. Anyone else have an opinion on where UNC games should go? Once we get a schedule down, we can volunteer for roles.

Irregardless, here’s how Jumbo split them last year –

Phase 0 – Pre-season
Phase I – UNCG – NIT Tipoff
Phase II – Wisco- Penn
Phase III – Early ACC – GT (pre-UNC #1)
Phase IV – BC (then UNC #1)- UNC #2 (End Reg Season).
Phase V – ACC tourney
Phase VI – First weekend of NCAAs
Phase VII – South Regionals
Phase VIII – Final Four

Lord Ash
11-12-2010, 03:49 PM
Hope no one minds; I started a new thread (which can be locked when finished) to discuss the writing of the Phase bits, so we don't "hijack" this particular thread, which is probably best used for discussing Phase 1!:)

If this isn't okay, please moderators feel free to change:)

I put it here:

Link (http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?22992-Discussion-re-proceeding-with-the-annual-quot-Phase-X-quot-posts)

Lord Ash
11-12-2010, 04:00 PM
You know, on point 2, the agendas... I really don't see that being an issue. With two big-time seniors on board, and a number of starters who saw a title last year... and then Seth with his hunger and having seen it "work" last year... and, of course, K's ability to forge a team, I am not worried about this.

The leadership point (#1) is interesting, though... Kyle is considered a real quiet type. However, Nolan has always struck me as a real "personality," even though he has never been credited (that I know of) as being a "natural" leader, which seems funny after seeing him in front of a camera so often:) I have faith, though, that Nolan will end up emerging as one of the leaders of this team.

pfrduke
11-12-2010, 04:04 PM
One reason to have UNC at the front of Phase is because of the post-UNC emotional hangover. Anyone else have an opinion on where UNC games should go? Once we get a schedule down, we can volunteer for roles.

Irregardless, here’s how Jumbo split them last year –

Phase 0 – Pre-season
Phase I – UNCG – NIT Tipoff
Phase II – Wisco- Penn
Phase III – Early ACC – GT (pre-UNC #1)
Phase IV – BC (then UNC #1)- UNC #2 (End Reg Season).
Phase V – ACC tourney
Phase VI – First weekend of NCAAs
Phase VII – South Regionals
Phase VIII – Final Four

I feel less strongly about where UNC falls in phase III than I do about keeping Phase V reserved exclusively for the ACCT, because it really is its own separate and distinct phase from any of the regular season games.

gam7
11-12-2010, 04:19 PM
I feel less strongly about where UNC falls in phase III than I do about keeping Phase V reserved exclusively for the ACCT, because it really is its own separate and distinct phase from any of the regular season games.

I don't believe that Jumbo actually wrote that phase report - team health was not mentioned at all!

I agree with pfr on putting the UNC games at the end of each of the ACC phases. Those games always feel to me as though they are the culmination of half of the ACC season. Everything sort of leads up to each of those games. Also, I assume each weekend of the NCAA tourney will be a new phase.

Lord Ash
11-12-2010, 04:24 PM
Yeah, health this year will not be as HUGE... can you IMAGINE if Jon had gone down last year, or Nolan? Woof... we would have had to play Dre and the other guard 40 minutes! It would have been pretty amazing... we were VERY lucky last year as far as injury. Thankfully we have some depth at every position this year, so if someone were to be injured we can hopefully weather the storm.

Also, I did start another thread to discuss how to handle the phases this year, just so as to not clutter up Jumbo's Phase 1... so if you guys want to chime in there, that would be lovely!:) If it isn't needed, please someone do what you need!:)

MChambers
11-12-2010, 05:14 PM
Yeah, health this year will not be as HUGE... can you IMAGINE if Jon had gone down last year, or Nolan? Woof... we would have had to play Dre and the other guard 40 minutes! It would have been pretty amazing... we were VERY lucky last year as far as injury. Thankfully we have some depth at every position this year, so if someone were to be injured we can hopefully weather the storm.

Also, I did start another thread to discuss how to handle the phases this year, just so as to not clutter up Jumbo's Phase 1... so if you guys want to chime in there, that would be lovely!:) If it isn't needed, please someone do what you need!:)
Duke is definitely a lot deeper this year. (I'd rather not speculate on who the most irreplaceable player is, for fear of jinxing things.) Still, we'll need to be relatively healthy (understanding that no team is completely healthy then) at the end of the year, if we are to go far. Just another reason that winning the title isn't all that likely, even for a team that may be the most talented.

Mike Corey
11-12-2010, 05:19 PM
Welcome back, Jumbo, if only for a drive-by dropping of knowledge on the rest of us.

Point #2 seems like the most uncertain in one sense, and the most certain in another.

On the one hand, with 7 freshmen and sophomores, coalescing is inevitably in doubt. Everyone's still learning the system--it's all in flux all year long (or at least, more so than usual). On the other hand, you have the core of a coaching staff that's been intact for a decade, and two seniors in Smith and Singler that are as well-equipped to help assimilate a young team into "The Duke Way" as nearly anyone.

This, too, shall take time, but it should be awfully fun to watch.

JohnGalt
11-12-2010, 05:25 PM
1) Everyone knows how talented this group is, but how much will it miss the leadership and little things last year's three seniors brought?

2) How will all the different agendas line up?

3) Will FT shooting be a problem?

4) Who's the first big off the bench -- Kelly or Hairston?

5) Can the Plumlees stop making so many mental mistakes?

6) Can Duke force enough turnovers to make up for last season's awesome offensive rebound and get enough easy baskets to make up for the total control Scheyer had over the game?

7) How will this team operate in a late-game situation?


The prodigal son (err, moderator) has returned! Thanks again, Jumbo!

1) Everyone knows how talented this group is, but how much will it miss the leadership and little things last year's three seniors brought?
Wonderful point and certainly an area of concern. I think it primarily depends on the players' ability to channel their different roles. As mentioned, Scheyer, Thomas, and Zoubs' meticulous focus on the 'little things' (which, it turns out, weren't and aren't exactly 'little') along with their desire to play as unselfishly as possible produced one of the most satisfying seasons that any of us can remember. This year - as opposed to last - we'll have more players with more raw talent on the team who'll all be looking to get a piece of the pie. Will each of the these players be willing to step into the holes left by the departing seniors and effectively plug the gaps without worrying about being the go-to man? Will Seth be comfortable averaging possibly only a third of the amount of points he averaged as a freshman? Can Tyler continue to give 110% in practice if he doesn’t see much of the court outside of mop-up time? These are only two hypothetical examples, but I think a lot depends on each player’s acceptance of their role within the team. If each one can take it head on like Zoubs, Thomas, and Scheyer did last year, look out!

2) How will all the different agendas line up?
If there's one thing that the team appears to collectively have, it's chemistry. After watching the All-access shows and reading the comments of some of the more closely involved posters, it's clear this group is not only close on the basketball court, but close off the court, as well. Nolan and Kyle have both spoke glowingly of Kyrie's abilities and neither seem intimidated by his immediate entry into the starting rotation. If anything, it seems Kyrie's talent has pushed Dre, Seth, and Tyler even harder into making the most of their time on the court. It's a joy to watch and baring something unforeseen, I expect it to continue throughout the season. I anticipate this will result in one of the deepest and most effective benches Duke has had in some time. (And, yes, K will use it).

3) Will FT shooting be a problem?
This is an interesting topic to which I haven’t give much thought. I don’t have statistics in front of me, but I imagine that at least something tangible will be lost with the overall amount of youth now on the team (as compared to last year). Losing three seniors who collectively spent over a decade working on free throw shooting in all types of live-game situations isn’t easily replacable. Most of all though, losing Scheyer hurts as he provided that go-to man in late game scenarios. It will be interesting to see who steps up as the primary late game “Mr Automatic” that Scheyer provided last season.

4) Who's the first big off the bench -- Kelly or Hairston?
Just going off memory, it seems that most indicate Kelly as being the most (or 2nd most) improved from last year. He's put on an absurd amount of weight for one offseason (some saying as much as 25lbs!) and after watching the preseason games, it is certainly noticeable. I think Hairston has the potential to be a big time contributer, but I suspect that Kelly will be the first big off the bench as he has both size and a year's experience over Hairston.

5) Can the Plumlees stop making so many mental mistakes?
This is crucial and has been expounded upon a fair amount already. The Plumltrees' post play/defense will determine just how dominant this team really can be. How much progress have they made over the summer re: rotating off screens, sliding their feet, keeping from reaching, et al. Wojo has commented that Miles has improved drastically over the offseason and I, for one, am anxiously awaiting seeing it. I worry more for Mason and the mental areas more so than Miles. He's more gifted athletically (see draft stock) than older brother Miles, but if Miles plays more effectively, how will that affect Mason? Will it push him to get better or will he shrink into a more limited role? I expect an improved performance from last year, that being flashes of brilliance with periods of ineffectiveness. That being said though, I expect the number of “wows” we saw out of him last season to be measurably increased along with the “overall effectiveness curve” to be much less drastic in both directions.

6) Can Duke force enough turnovers to make up for last season's awesome offensive rebound and get enough easy baskets to make up for the total control Scheyer had over the game?
I’m not sure it’s a new approach, per se, so much as a return to K’s traditional “pressure the passing lane” defense. The quickness on the perimeter will return with a vengeance which should lead to myriad amount of break away lay-ins. As mentioned before, how will the Plumlees adapt to this defensive style? Despite what K, Wojo, Collins, et al are used to, the Plumlees are used to last year’s half-court grind. For Mason, it’s all he knows at Duke; for Miles, it’s certainly the majority of his playing time. However, K’s historical approach to defense should be well-suited for their physical attributes, but will they have a hard time adjusting mentally? That remains to be seen. Not to sound redundant, but their interior defense is absolutely crucial to how dominant this team can be.

7) How will this team operate in a late-game situation?
This will be interesting to see. One of the things we can all agree on is that at least once and probably many more times, there will be situations at the end of the game where Duke is in need of a bucket which, perhaps, will result in a W. Who’s hands will be ball be in? The uber-hyped frosh or the experienced senior(s)? Perhaps even the sharpshooting 6th/7th man? I imagine different scenarios will dictate who K draws the play for, but I’m still interested to see how it all unfolds. We have a tremendous amount of weapons capable of pulling the trigger and winning the game, but I imagine that, over the course of the season, one will rise above the rest as THE go-to man.

Some other thoughts to go along with Jumbo’s:

1. Injuries. We’re loaded in the backcourt, but really only one injury away from being a little thin in the frontcourt. It doesn’t approach what one injury in the backcourt last year would have meant, but like always, a team’s health is a large determinant as to their success toward the end of the season. Here’s to a healthy season!
2. Brian Zoubek underwent one of the most magnificent mid-season transformations that I can remember in my, admittedly brief (as compared to many on this Board) time as a Duke fan. Following the Maryland game and his re-assuming the role of starter on the team, he was simply dominant on the glass. Is there anyone capable of making at least half that transformation this season? If so, who is most likely?



The only problem is that Jim does this for a living... not sure you can ask someone who gets paid for this to do it for free on a message board:)

Am I possibly overthinking this, or could it be fun?

I think the super-active Mods may be reluctant to take on anymore than they already have. Perhaps not, but I think maybe getting someone without that responsibility to run the Phases would be best. I’ve always appreciated SilkyJ’s thoughts. He seems to have a good level of insight. Sagegrouse generally provides a different and interesting perspective too.

sagegrouse
11-12-2010, 06:16 PM
Originally posted by Jumbo --
1) Everyone knows how talented this group is, but how much will it miss the leadership and little things last year's three seniors brought?
I think the answer to this is "a lot" and it will be much harder to replace than some people think. Coach K is doing the right things to compensate -- playing faster, smaller, etc. -- and it's nice to have two seniors from a national championship team back to lead the way. But just as 2001-02 wasn't quite the same without Battier, so will this season be different without the combo of Scheyer, Zoubek and Thomas.

Duke last year was an amazing "t-e-a-m," that played well beyond the individual talents of the players as the team developed over the course of the entire year. Moreover, despite leadership and team work, it successfully masked two things: (a) no depth in the backcourt -- only two experienced guards and (b) no scoring in the front court.

I am not concerned about deficincies in teamwork and leadership this year; it's just that last year's team was so unbelievably good at playing together.

Hence more talent and almost as much experience may not mean this team will be better. It will be fun to watch how this team develops.

sagegrouse

jipops
11-12-2010, 07:53 PM
Thanks for Jumbo for making such a detailed and grounded post. With what has been listed here I think it is easy to see why someone as knowledgeable as Jay Bilas picked Mich St has the eventual champ. Much of the items listed as potential challenges/pitfalls for this season's Duke team are items that an experienced squad like Mich St already has figured out. It isn't always just about pure talent. Though I think it is going to be a glorious ride we are no doubt going to see some growing pains throughout the season. Some kinks are going to develop as others are worked out. Hopefully by March we will have peaked which simply reiterates what K has said this pre-season.

There is never just one thing but to me the biggest concern of all is just staying healthy. I probably worry about this too much. We also need a little luck which directly relates to everyone staying healthy. Winning a title is just plain difficult. The '92 squad battled injuries throughout the month of February but was able to get healthy my March. Hopefully that is where we'll be as well.

ncexnyc
11-12-2010, 08:20 PM
I too find it hard to believe that this was written by Jumbo. He’s normally the glass is half full type of guy and this post has some dark tones to it. It might be the pressure of work or it could be that he’s intentionally trying to temper expectations for this team, as quite frankly some posters have had made some outrageous claims so far.

I for one am glad to see that he’s mentioned several concerns that have been voiced by various people these past few months. Concerns which have been quickly shouted down and in most instances the usual comment for ignoring any concerns is, “This isn’t last year’s team” and “This year’s team is way more talented.”

1. Seniors:
Brian, Jon, and Lance were seniors. Each of them brought 4 years worth of playing in Duke’s system to the table. Jon wasn’t flashy, but he posted some very impressive career stats and it seems that a lot of posters have forgotten that in their rush to embrace our new shiny PG. Brian and Lance, while not the most gifted players knew their roles and filled them to a T.
2. Agenda:
Having everyone working on the same sheet of music is a definite must, especially when you’re talking about a team working within a system. We’d all like to think that chemistry issues couldn’t affect this team, but I’m sure our friends down the road from us never thought that could happen to them either. The one thing that I’m especially concerned about with this team is that there is so much talent here. Will some players wilt under the self imposed pressure to perform well once they get on the court due to concerns over playing time?
3. Free Throw Percentage:
I realize two exhibition games is a very small sample, but this is definitely an area which needs to be monitored. Last year it was the Big Three having most of the teams offensive touches. This year our bigs are supposed to be more involved so that means Mason and Miles are going to have to step-up in this area.
4. The Plumlees:
These two young men have a great deal of pressure on their shoulders. They definitely have all the physical tools needed to be exceptional post players, but as Jumbo has mentioned they need to do all the little things.

I’m happy that we’ll be kicking things off Sunday. Not so sure how my wife feels about it, as it means I’ll be locking myself in the guest room for several hours. Shouldn’t be too much screaming at the TV.

Bluealum
11-12-2010, 09:44 PM
Hi folks. I apologize for the long absence, but I've been swamped and will continue to be similarly swamped for a while. So, one of the things I haven't been able to do is follow Duke hoops nearly as closely as usual (which, in some ways, feels healthy and refreshing). And I've had to make the choice to essentially stop contributing the boards.

Right now, I can't see any way that I'll be able to handle the plus/minus stuff during the season, and I don't have the energy at the moment for a full phase post. I don't know if I'll be able to manage others going forward, either. But given the flattering number of callouts that Jason made me aware of, I do want to offer a mini phase post, which someone could feel free to move into a different thread. And mostly, I just want to thank everyone for all the fun over the years. I'll be back with a greater presence at some point, I suspect. Until then, chew on these questions I have going into the season.

1) Everyone knows how talented this group is, but how much will it miss the leadership and little things last year's three seniors brought?
I think the answer to this is "a lot" and it will be much harder to replace than some people think. Coach K is doing the right things to compensate -- playing faster, smaller, etc. -- and it's nice to have two seniors from a national championship team back to lead the way. But just as 2001-02 wasn't quite the same without Battier, so will this season be different without the combo of Scheyer, Zoubek and Thomas.

2) How will all the different agendas line up?
Last year's team seem focused on exactly one thing -- winning. Everyone had pretty well-defined roles and it was a veteran group. This year, though, Kyle and Nolan have to worry about draft position. Kyrie is likely to be one-and-done. Mason has thoughts about the draft. Curry has to adjust to coming off the bench. Dawkins has to fight for minutes with yet another talented player coming it at his position next year. There's Kelly vs. Hairston for PT. Competition is a good thing, but the focus still has to be on team success and recognizing that the other things will take care of themselves as a result.

3) Will FT shooting be a problem?
This worries me too. We're replacing an automatic guy in Scheyer. I'm not sure how good Kyrie will be from the line, but that's different in late-game situations. I expect the Plumlees to get to the line more often than Thomas and Zoubs, and neither makes me comfortable at the line. I could see this becoming an issue.

4) Who's the first big off the bench -- Kelly or Hairston?
I'm interested to see how that unfolds.

5) Can the Plumlees stop making so many mental mistakes?
It's unreasonable to expect them to have the dedication to screening, talking and interior defense that Thomas and Zoubek mastered. But the Plumlees have to be better than last season, when they routinely missed assignments. Simple as that.

6) Can Duke force enough turnovers to make up for last season's awesome offensive rebound and get enough easy baskets to make up for the total control Scheyer had over the game?
That's really what it comes down to with the new approach to match the new personnel. This team will look very different. Strengths have become weaknesses and weaknesses have become strengths. It's just a question of whether the tradeoffs come out as net positives, as they did last season.

7) How will this team operate in a late-game situation?
Last year's perimeter trio had the experience and chemistry of working together for years, so everything flowed smoothly. But if the ball is truly in Irving's hands, then that makes things a little more confusing in working with Nolan and Kyle. This will be something to watch early.

There are plenty of other things to consider, too, but I wanted to keep this somewhat brief. So, there you have it. Hope you all are doing well, and enjoy the game Sunday!

Thanks for the taking the time Jumbo, your phase kickoff was insightful as always and I think very timely for our community of fans.

Last year when everyone was bemoaning our lack of depth and 'talent' (a word I feel everyone uses differently) and you were, as a poster suggested, in a glass is half full mode, you were notably optimistic. This year when our preseason cups overfloweth, you strike the cautious note. I am big fan of inhaling deeply and leaning the opposite direction when an excess of hype or doom is in the air and I read that into your summary whether you intended it or not.

1) Everyone knows how talented this group is, but how much will it miss the leadership and little things last year's three seniors brought?
The key point is that experience and leadership are generally undervalued, despite evidence to the contrary, and athletic 'talent' is over-valued, by even experienced observers. Having Nolan and Kyle, grow into leadership roles is critical to a championship run (but not necessarily to a great season). A key to leadership is a certain presence that people instinctively follow. Battier and Laettner both had it in very different but pronounced ways. In a strange way, so did the unique combination of Jon & Lance. While I loved both Langdon and Reddick, I never sensed that rare something from them. I don't think it's as easy as I'm suggesting, connecting championships to that elusive 'presence', but I will certainly be looking for that to develop in our seniors.

2) How will all the different agendas line up?
Leadership is key to this point. Kyle, Nolan, Kyrie, and Miles have pretty clear roles. So do Tyler and Josh. The wild cards are Dre, Seth, Ryan, and Mason. Each is coming in with expectations and a real challenge for playing time. Both Dre and Seth will be extremely aware that another top 2 guard is on the way next year as well. It will be very interesting to watch the body language of these four players as they compete for time and deal with the inevitable but unpredictable setbacks that they face during the season.

3) Will FT shooting be a problem?
We generally have good shooters and I believe Miles and Mason will make strides in this area so I am optimistic on this front. I suspect Nolan and Kyle will touch the ball a lot in end of game situations which also bodes well.

4) Who's the first big off the bench -- Kelly or Hairston?
There is something about the energy with which Hairston plays that I think will appeal a lot to Coach K. This isn't the no brainer that I think Kelly's 30 lb gain implies. I also wonder about Kelly's ability to stay injury free. Adding that much weight on a 6'11" frame can sometimes lead to injuries in the year following the gain. I hope I am wrong on this.

5) Can the Plumlees stop making so many mental mistakes?
I have a completely unsubstantiated feeling that Miles will be a rock for us this year. He will be smarter, stronger, and more of a leader. On the other hand, I think the pressures on Mason go way up, and he is more mercurial by nature. I think it will take another year for Mason to play consistently. This year I am expecting both flashes of brilliance mixed with more out of control play.

6) Can Duke force enough turnovers to make up for last season's awesome offensive rebound and get enough easy baskets to make up for the total control Scheyer had over the game?
I am optimistic about rebounding not dropping off too much. We don't have a Zoubs, but Mason and particularly Miles should be really good on the glass, with substantial help from an even more rugged Kyle as a fericious wing rebounder. Turnovers will be a key. We should force many more, but teams are really going to game plan for this. If they don't have a very good pair of ball handlers we will likely blow the team out of the gym. If, they do however, we may lack the discipline to stay at home on our assignments and get burned by good, well coached teams. I am always nervous about freshmen point guards as well. Kyrie looks amazing as a ball handler so I am less concerned about strips as I am about bad passes at critical junctures. This will be a learning process. We should be much better in March than we are in January.

7) How will this team operate in a late-game situation?
Kyle and Nolan are great options. I presume Kyrie and Seth could be lethal as well. Question is who feels compelled to take the key shots at crunch time. If we have a few close losses where we miss those shots early in the season, does resentment build among the other ultra capable scorers? Leadership will be key to this and it will be fascinating to see if someone other than Nolan or Kyle is a prime late game option.

Thanks again for kicking things off Jumbo. Should be a great ride again, if we can just tune out all those experts who will make it seem like only a catastrophe can keep us from the final trophy. Here's to enjoying the ride!

Cheers,
Bluealum

jv001
11-12-2010, 10:03 PM
Good to have you and your Phase reports back. You were a calming influence during last year's Championship season. Now for your first phase of the new year.
1. Leadership or lack of because of the departed seniors. Jon, LT, Kyle and Nolan provided it last year and I expect the same from Nolan, Kyle and Kyrie this year.
2. Agenda..this could be a problem. Competition for playing time is going to be very demanding. Usually competition is healthy, but with so many perimeter players will Andre, Curry and Ryan feel the pressure and not shoot well? Let's hope not.
3. FT shooting. With so many good shooters, this shouldn't be a big problem.
4. First big off the bench. As with any Coach K team, this will be determined in practice. I say Ryan will be the first off the bench.
5. Plumlees..On this one, I'll take a wait and see attitude. We need them to step up and provide some of the things LT and Zoubs did last year.
6. Rebounding...See number 5. And throw Kelly into that mix.
7. Late game situations..You would think a better Kyle and better Nolan would put this to sleep, but you never know. The chemistry of this years squad will be a determing factor on just how good we will be.
These are just my thoughts and don't account for much. Looking forward to Sunday and our first game. And as always Go Duke!

NSDukeFan
11-12-2010, 10:38 PM
Hi folks. I apologize for the long absence, but I've been swamped and will continue to be similarly swamped for a while. So, one of the things I haven't been able to do is follow Duke hoops nearly as closely as usual (which, in some ways, feels healthy and refreshing). And I've had to make the choice to essentially stop contributing the boards.
This puts more responsibility on a lot of other posters after the first loss, or unimpressive performance, and subsequent ones, to respond to the "disaster has struck/ this team doesn't have a chance, etc." with a dose of perspective. Fortunately, there are many who do a good job of "whack-a-mole" (I can't remember who coined this BD80?, Blue in the Face?) after a game last year (or that was where I first remember seeing it and thought it was hilarious.)

...

1) Everyone knows how talented this group is, but how much will it miss the leadership and little things last year's three seniors brought?
I agree that it may be a lot and hope and expect that Kyle and Nolan will be great leaders by example, and verbally when needed.
2) How will all the different agendas line up?
I think everyone hopes and expects this will work out well and obviously there is a great leadership structure to help ensure that it does, but these are 18-22 year old kids who could have trouble buying into the team big picture. I don't expect it to be a problem, but you never know.

3) Will FT shooting be a problem?
I don't it expect it to be an issue, as Kyle and Nolan are great at the line, but losing Mr. Automatic doesn't help and the team may take a bit of a dip in this area, that could lead to a bit of a problem with #7

4) Who's the first big off the bench -- Kelly or Hairston?
I expect it will be Kelly and am expecting big things from him this year. Should be interesting to see.

5) Can the Plumlees stop making so many mental mistakes?
These last three (5,6,7) are the biggest three that I will be looking out for this year. I am looking forward to seeing more improvement in help-side defense from the Plumlees and Kelly (and Joshua). I think Princeton will provide a great early season test in terms of tempo and it being imperative that the team communicate and be in proper help-side position. It is so exciting as a fan because we know they have the potential to be great defenders, but how long will it take for them to understand where they need to be? It takes different amounts of time for everyone and usually the upperclassmen get it a lot more.

6) Can Duke force enough turnovers to make up for last season's awesome offensive rebound and get enough easy baskets to make up for the total control Scheyer had over the game?
I am really interested in this one. I always like to have a cushion in basketball so that if you are having a bad night, the team can still win. Sometimes the other team makes more shots than you do. How can you still win that game? Last year the team did it by not turning the ball over and getting a bunch of second chances from offensive rebounds. This team will attempt to do it by creating turnovers and getting easy fast break points. What happens when the team runs into a solid ball-handling team that gets back well on defense during an off-shooting night? Can they still generate enough easy baskets to win? Kyrie will help here and hopefully, Kyle and Nolan improve their vision during drives enough to get even easier shots when times get tough.

7) How will this team operate in a late-game situation?
I was amazed at how well this team consistently performed in end of game situations last year. It seemed like whenever the team got a lead in the last quarter of the game, they very rarely relinquished it. It helped that our three main ball-handlers were good foul shooters. It also helped that they did a great job of using the clock at the end of the game. Will a freshman point guard be able to do that, even though he can create a shot earlier? I assume there will be more scorers on the floor at the end of games. Will they still ensure they get the best shot for the team? I can't see this team performing as well at the end of games as last year's team did, but I am willing to be pleasantly surprised.

jipops
11-12-2010, 11:57 PM
Interestingly, of the 6 experts on this panel none of them picks Duke to win it all (granted, a few withhold their final pick). We don't seem to be the overwhelming favorite as much of the media wants to make us out to be.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/preview2010/news/story?id=5795399

Kedsy
11-13-2010, 12:39 AM
Interestingly, of the 6 experts on this panel none of them picks Duke to win it all (granted, a few withhold their final pick). We don't seem to be the overwhelming favorite as much of the media wants to make us out to be.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/preview2010/news/story?id=5795399

I must be seeing something different than you are, but in the grid I see 7 out of 10 ESPN experts picking Duke to win it all. Two pick Michigan State and Lunardi picks Gonzaga. Sounds pretty overwhelming to me.

madscavenger
11-13-2010, 03:51 AM
i'd like to add one more area of concern. Will our defense be able to handle talented athletic wings? Sure, Singler will be around, but he can't be everywhere. A disciplined team should be able to reverse the ball. The Plumlees, IMO, have not demonstrated they can consistently stick with such a player. They foul too much and get beaten too much. They're too often out of position. They need better footwork. Perhaps they'll show marked improvement. i hope so, because once recognized this can be exploited enough to force us into a less desireable defense and eventually foul trouble. In the last couple of minutes, this can be a very significant problem. To better illustrate my concern, revisit the LSU game (elite 8, IIRC) a few years back. This is the type of situation to which i allude. We just couldn't handle Tyus Thomas, and they went to him over and over and over. We can get by lots of teams despite this weakness, but a very good team in the tournament; worrisome.

gam7
11-13-2010, 04:25 AM
To better illustrate my concern, revisit the LSU game (elite 8, IIRC) a few years back.

It was Sweet 16.

jipops
11-13-2010, 08:48 AM
I must be seeing something different than you are, but in the grid I see 7 out of 10 ESPN experts picking Duke to win it all. Two pick Michigan State and Lunardi picks Gonzaga. Sounds pretty overwhelming to me.

yeah, we were looking at something different. I was talking about the video. I actually didn't see the text underneath, my chrome browser is doing some crazy stuff with espn.

greybeard
11-13-2010, 02:46 PM
For any offense to be effective, it MUST make the defense's first priority to make sure it guards the rim. To do that, a team must present in a manner in which attacks on the rim are a real threat.

In the two years preceding last year, and for one player in particular last year, Duke's strategy for attacking the rim involved attacks from the wing. When G was here, he was numero uno. But there were others, there were E Will, Smith, and of course Kyle.

G got hurt doing it, his wrist if I remember correctly; Nolan got real hurt doing it, ended on his back so often that it was a wonder he could run--actually, for quite a while he couldn't; E will hurt his back as well if I remember right, and Kyle, who is the one I was referencing in the paragraph talking about last year, he too hurt his wrist.

How did all four of these guys get injured? By making long runs to the rim, encountering a waiting defender, elevating extra high, and getting met by a downward thrusting arm that flipped them backwards. Each one of them had that happen multiple times.

Now, this was no coincidence. K determined that he could not pressure the rim the first two years mentioned through use of the bigs, and encouraged everyone but G (G didn't need no encouragement, he was going to fly no matter what) to get to the rim and draw foul trying to throw it down.

Now, Nolan from the moment he arrived put himself at risk on way too many finishes unnecessarily and paid the price. Last year he finished with nuance after creating separation and beating help defense with a burst of speed as he aproached and penetrated the foul line and finished as often as not, aka Steve Nash with a little finese shot that had him barely leaving his feet and ready to sprint back on defense instead of being scraped off the floor. I hope he keeps that style up, that he doesn't try to woe the pro scouts with his ESPN power so they will see him not only as effective but as a sailable commodity as a three, a highlight earner. I think it will cost both him and the team if he resorts to his old style. I really hope he doesn't.

Which brings me to Kyle. Kyle got taken down twice in the Tech game at the appex of wonderful attacks at the rim. He got taken down by what I regarded as "thug defense" preached by Hewitt. That said, elevating in that fashion is putting oneself in danger. Kyle needs to cut it out.

This team needs to cultivate a style of attacking the rim that does not put guys at risk. The powerful bigs on power dunks, sure. The other guys, need to play smart and finish safely, they need to score the thing, draw fouls, but not put themselves at risk as described above. This is key to success this year, depth notwithstanding, imo.

RelativeWays
11-13-2010, 05:06 PM
Hard to believe its "phase" time already. I still haven't hung the NC poster yet.

gumbomoop
11-13-2010, 09:23 PM
3) Will FT shooting be a problem?

I focus here mostly on end-game FT, with particular attention to lineup.

Though in general we hope the team FT % is 75%+, I'm not really expecting that. But what we most worry about is making FTs in close games, especially last 2-3 minutes, in the anticipated close games where Duke is protecting a 3-10-point lead.

In that generic scenario, absent marked improvement, I wouldn't expect to see either of the MPs in the game. Rather, I'd expect one of the following, and even both in the last 2-3 minutes, depending on the exact score and time remaining.

1. KS, NS, KI, RK, and either SC or AD
2. KS, NS, KI, SC, and AD

I assume, but cannot be certain, that these 6 are most likely best FT shooters. If by chance TT is a 90% FT guy, he's in the late-game mix, too. If RK has substantially better FT% than either SC or AD, there'd be no need for scenario #2 above. Hard for me to imagine [except in case of foul problem, fouled-out, etc.] that KS, NS, or KI would be on bench at end of game.

Kedsy
11-13-2010, 11:11 PM
3) Will FT shooting be a problem?

I focus here mostly on end-game FT, with particular attention to lineup.

Though in general we hope the team FT % is 75%+, I'm not really expecting that. But what we most worry about is making FTs in close games, especially last 2-3 minutes, in the anticipated close games where Duke is protecting a 3-10-point lead.

In that generic scenario, absent marked improvement, I wouldn't expect to see either of the MPs in the game. Rather, I'd expect one of the following, and even both in the last 2-3 minutes, depending on the exact score and time remaining.

1. KS, NS, KI, RK, and either SC or AD
2. KS, NS, KI, SC, and AD

I assume, but cannot be certain, that these 6 are most likely best FT shooters. If by chance TT is a 90% FT guy, he's in the late-game mix, too. If RK has substantially better FT% than either SC or AD, there'd be no need for scenario #2 above. Hard for me to imagine [except in case of foul problem, fouled-out, etc.] that KS, NS, or KI would be on bench at end of game.

I understand what you're saying, but it's hard for me to imagine significant minutes where Andre is the 2nd biggest player on our team (your scenario 2). If you're nursing a small lead you have to play defense, and playing four smallish guards plus Kyle doesn't sound to me like a winning defensive scheme.

Maybe if K goes to an offense/defense sort of thing where he substitutes every time down the floor, but even then the really tiny lineup seems risky.

gumbomoop
11-14-2010, 08:12 AM
I understand what you're saying, but it's hard for me to imagine significant minutes where Andre is the 2nd biggest player on our team (your scenario 2). If you're nursing a small lead you have to play defense, and playing four smallish guards plus Kyle doesn't sound to me like a winning defensive scheme.

Maybe if K goes to an offense/defense sort of thing where he substitutes every time down the floor, but even then the really tiny lineup seems risky.

You're absolutely right, and that's why I said "depending on the exact score and time remaining." I hope I didn't imply that such a small lineup could possibly garner "significant" minutes, for it would be a crazy lineup on both O and D for more than a minute or so.

But take this as a realistic scenario: Duke up by 6, 53 seconds to go, coming out of timeout with the ball, full shot clock, Duke's in the bonus. In this circumstance, seems almost certain that K will have the guys hold it until shot clock shows about 10 seconds. But it seems almost equally certain that the opposing coach will have his team go for a steal immediately, but failing that, foul pretty quickly. That is, it's highly likely that this becomes, for Duke on O, a simple matter of made free throws. Given this, K will use, I think, KS, NS, KI, and his 2 best FT shooters from other 7 guys. Now, as I said in my original post, if RK [or, for that matter, either MP] is better than - maybe even just approximately as good as - either SC or AD, then that small lineup isn't plausible, and the point is moot.

But - again given specific, but realistic, game situations - at the very very end of a close game, when Duke is definitely going to be fouled, and when making FTs is a near-guarantee of victory, when the opposing team must shoot 3s [thus obviating the need for 2 bigs on D], I'm saying K might go real small. And yes, you're also definitely correct that an offense/defense switch would be relevant here. But even if both teams are out of time-outs, if the single crucial thing is making FTs [well, good ball handling and experience, too, but that's why KI, KS, and NS are constants], maybe we'll see real small lineup.

Not for anything like significant minutes; only in very specific, but perfectly plausible, situations; and only if SC and AD are clearly better FT guys than RK.

Unless..... just to drive you crazy and prove I'm a nutter - TT and SC are by far best FT guys of the remaining 7 [after all, we know they're best ball handlers among remaining 7] - in which case, it's Kyle and the Pips. For the last 53 seconds.

Kedsy
11-14-2010, 11:09 AM
You're absolutely right, and that's why I said "depending on the exact score and time remaining." I hope I didn't imply that such a small lineup could possibly garner "significant" minutes, for it would be a crazy lineup on both O and D for more than a minute or so.

OK. I suppose it's possible. Although I doubt that lineup would play even as much as 53 seconds. In your scenario, after the foul and made free throws (putting Duke up 8), a period of probably less than 5 seconds, I'd expect a substitution putting in a big man for one of the "pips." If the other team gets it down to 5 or 6 again, then maybe the tiny lineup could come in again for another 5 seconds, just to make some free throws.

The problem is, what if we miss the free throw(s), meaning we're up 6 and then quickly 4 because we can't defend properly. As I said before, it's a risky proposition.

Jumbo
11-14-2010, 12:40 PM
Thanks for the taking the time Jumbo, your phase kickoff was insightful as always and I think very timely for our community of fans.

Last year when everyone was bemoaning our lack of depth and 'talent' (a word I feel everyone uses differently) and you were, as a poster suggested, in a glass is half full mode, you were notably optimistic. This year when our preseason cups overfloweth, you strike the cautious note. I am big fan of inhaling deeply and leaning the opposite direction when an excess of hype or doom is in the air and I read that into your summary whether you intended it or not.

Thanks. That's a lot of what I'm trying to do (inhaling deeply and leaning the opposite way), but there are a couple of other factors at work. Last season, for whatever reason, I had a very strong feeling that the team could do something big. That was both from my own analysis and what I was hearing from those close to the team. When you contrasted my vision of what that team could become with the increasing frustration and/or panic from large segments of the Duke fanbase, I felt almost compelled to argue at length to get people to see a different perspective.

This season, a lot of the help is well-deserved. But while I haven't been reading the boards nearly as much as ever before, I do get a sense that the heightened expectations in some ways unintentionally dismiss many of the areas that made last season's team so great, which are now missing. Can they be replaced, or at least compensated for in other ways? Of course. But I guess I don't like hyperbole in either direction.

Finally, today is actually somewhat bittersweet for me, and I imagine for many other fans too. Normally, I anticipate the first game of the season with great fervor. But today truly marks the end of the reign of last year's team. And that championship -- and all the other achievements along the way -- might've made 2009-10 the most satisfying in all the years I've followed Duke basketball. It's also taken a lot of "pressure" off going forward. I K wants everyone to be hungry, but I think I'm in a healthy, satisfied place, where every game far, far from life and death. And I really miss last year's guys. So I urge everyone, before tipoff today, to take one more glance back to last season, remember the guys who made it possible, and just smile. Those great memories should linger forever.

superdave
11-29-2010, 01:46 PM
1) Everyone knows how talented this group is, but how much will it miss the leadership and little things last year's three seniors brought?
2) How will all the different agendas line up?
3) Will FT shooting be a problem?
4) Who's the first big off the bench -- Kelly or Hairston?
5) Can the Plumlees stop making so many mental mistakes?
6) Can Duke force enough turnovers to make up for last season's awesome offensive rebound and get enough easy baskets to make up for the total control Scheyer had over the game?
7) How will this team operate in a late-game situation?


We're 6-0 including a win vs. #4 K State on the road. So we've seen enough to take a first crack at trying to answer Jumbo's questions.

1. Leadership - I think this will be a season-long question, much the same way injuries was last year. I've seen Nolan dominate the ball at times in order to either slow things down, calm the other guys down or to simply put Duke on the attack. I've also seen Kyle give up some of his stats and shots in order to do the dirty work. The announcers said during the Oregon game that Miles was very vocal coming out of a time out situation. But we need more leadership out of Kyrie I believe. He seems to be the one guy who could allow everyone to play to their strengths simply by becoming more vocal and a stronger leader. I expect it to happen a little more each week for him.

2. Agendas - This does not appear to be a problem. We're getting both Andre and Seth ample shots and backcourt minutes (at the expense of Thornton) and we have a rotation 3 bigs (at the expense of Hairston). I think that 8 man rotation will serve us well in bigger games, with a few minutes for Josh and Tyler when we run a team off the court.

As for attitude and effort, these guys are hungry. They want to perform and dominate as a team, and not just chase after shots and stats. You never know when something could flare up, but for now they are playing the same tune. I think our defensive stats speak to this (63 ppg, 39% fg, 26% on 3s).

3. Free Throws -
Team - .730
Singler - .952
Irving - .923
Curry - .900
Dawkins - .769
Smith - .700
Miles - .615
Kelly - .600
Mason - .400

Our big men need to step up to the plate. There's no excuse for hitting less than 2 out of 3 and it will haunt us at some point.

4. Kelly vs. Hairston - I'm not sure anyone saw this coming quite the way it has played out. First, Josh is not in the regular rotation and Ryan is playing much better for longer stretches than he did last year.

5. The Plums? - Mason's rebounding is way up and Miles' +/- should keep all the haters on this board from trashing him a la Zoubek. (sorry for the negitivity but Miles is playing well - period)

If Mason can continue to be an offensive threat, then teams will have to play us differently. But the key for The Plums continues to be defensive discipline. They need to rotate better, play their man straight up more often without fouling and improve on the hedge and recover. Mason's help-side shot-blocking has been fantastic, but he still goes for the home run play on D a little much for our team's concept. Both Mason and Miles are foul prone as well. But that is the sort of thing that should improve steadily this year. They are already two steps ahead of last year defensively, so I'm encouraged.

6. Forcing TO's - We have forced 114 through 6 games, or 19 per game. We forced 14.2 per game last year.

The problem is we're commiting too many mistakes of our own (14.5 per game) compared to 11.1 last year. Granted this is due to a rookie pg, the new running style and more possessions, as well as an overhaul of our rotation. As Irving grows, this # comes down.

Perhaps the best comparison for us this year is the A/TO ratio: 1.29 A/TO this year vs. 1.23 last year. Hmmm...that's an improvement, albeit a small one. Not what I expected to see.

Here's how opponents' A/TO ratio looks: 0.59 A/TO this year vs. 0.76 last year. So we're not only slightly better at protecting the ball, but we're also significantly better at forcing TOs and throwing other teams off this year. That 0.59 will be harder to maintain during the ACC regular season though.

7. Late Game Situations - We have not seen any yet with Marquette falling by 5 (but it felt more like 10), but we have seen a few related situations. First, Marquette came storming back on us last week and tied the game up as Duke grew complacent after building a first half lead. Mason stepped up and almost single-handedly rebuilt our lead. So it's great to see a non-Nolan/Kyle player step up that way.

Second, Oregon threw a full court press at us and we were unprepared. I'm sure that will be worked on during December. Third, we've proven to be rusty with the delay offense. I think stall ball will improve once Nolan and Kyrie gain more of a feel for playing in the same backcourt, but we're not there yet, not by a longshot. We've also seen various zone D's which we can shoot right over top of, athletic big men that we can neutralize with adjustments and a few other areas of concern.

Perhaps Izzo gives us the late game scare that will show us a few things.

To conclude, we have a lot to work on - offensive efficiency, taking care of the ball, establishing some post offense on one end and playing without fouling on the other - but we have had awesome stretches. These guys are hungry and young and they will improve each week. I think our biggest questions are more intangible - leadership and communication first and focus second.

pfrduke
11-29-2010, 01:59 PM
6. Forcing TO's - We have forced 114 through 6 games, or 19 per game. We forced 14.2 per game last year.

The problem is we're commiting too many mistakes of our own (14.5 per game) compared to 11.1 last year. Granted this is due to a rookie pg, the new running style and more possessions, as well as an overhaul of our rotation. As Irving grows, this # comes down.

Perhaps the best comparison for us this year is the A/TO ratio: 1.29 A/TO this year vs. 1.23 last year. Hmmm...that's an improvement, albeit a small one. Not what I expected to see.

Great post. On the turnovers, the best way to assess may be turnover percentage (percentage of possessions ending in turnovers). Last year we turned it over 16.4% of the time (15th in the country). This year we're at 18.8%, which is worse, but still strong (72nd in the country). Given the pace of play and the youth, I'm happy with anything under 20%.

On the opposite side of the ball, last year we forced teams to turn it over 21.3% of the time, for a margin of 4.9%. This year we're forcing TO's on 24.2% of possessions, for a margin 5.4% - slightly higher than last season. Some of that likely has to do with opponent quality, but we did force K-State to turn the ball over 28% of the time.

Kedsy
11-29-2010, 02:15 PM
Pretty good writeup, Superdave. A couple of points:



4. Kelly vs. Hairston - I'm not sure anyone saw this coming quite the way it has played out. First, Josh is not in the regular rotation and Ryan is playing much better for longer stretches than he did last year.

I think a lot of people saw Ryan with a significant role in the rotation and many were not sure what if anything we'd get of Josh his freshman year. Personally, I'm hoping they can both earn a few more minutes a game, but that might be difficult as well as everyone else is playing.


Perhaps the best comparison for us this year is the A/TO ratio: 1.29 A/TO this year vs. 1.23 last year. Hmmm...that's an improvement, albeit a small one. Not what I expected to see.

It might be an even better comparison to look at Pomeroy's offensive and defensive efficiency numbers. Last year our final offensive efficiency was 123.5 and our defensive efficiency was 85.9. This year after 6 games we are at 120.5 offensively and 84.3 defensively. A little bit worse on offense and a little bit better on defense. These numbers are supposedly adjusted for the competition, so we should be comparing apples to apples.

Our last year's numbers placed us 1st in offensive efficiency and 4th in defensive efficiency. If we take this year's numbers and compare them to last year nationally, we'd have been 3rd in offensive efficiency and 1st in defensive efficiency. This year offense seems to be more inefficient nationally (at least at the top) because we are 2nd in both, a few percentage points behind Kansas in both categories.


I think our biggest questions are more intangible - leadership and communication first and focus second.

I actually think focus is our first and biggest question. The few poor stretches we've had seem to be almost entirely due to a lack of focus. I suspect we won't lose focus against the top teams, but I remember 2002 and worry about losing it against the 2nd tier teams, like Indiana that year and Marquette this year (sort of). We will face teams in the NCAAT who could beat us if we lose focus for any length of time and that's my biggest fear for this team.

On the other hand, the way we broke out of our few poor stretches so far this year suggests to me that our leadership and communication is pretty good, and that's why I wouldn't put that as the "first" issue.

superdave
11-29-2010, 02:23 PM
Pretty good writeup, Superdave. A couple of points:

I think a lot of people saw Ryan with a significant role in the rotation and many were not sure what if anything we'd get of Josh his freshman year. Personally, I'm hoping they can both earn a few more minutes a game, but that might be difficult as well as everyone else is playing.

It might be an even better comparison to look at Pomeroy's offensive and defensive efficiency numbers. Last year our final offensive efficiency was 123.5 and our defensive efficiency was 85.9. This year after 6 games we are at 120.5 offensively and 84.3 defensively. A little bit worse on offense and a little bit better on defense. These numbers are supposedly adjusted for the competition, so we should be comparing apples to apples.

Our last year's numbers placed us 1st in offensive efficiency and 4th in defensive efficiency. If we take this year's numbers and compare them to last year nationally, we'd have been 3rd in offensive efficiency and 1st in defensive efficiency. This year offense seems to be more inefficient nationally (at least at the top) because we are 2nd in both, a few percentage points behind Kansas in both categories.

I actually think focus is our first and biggest question. The few poor stretches we've had seem to be almost entirely due to a lack of focus. I suspect we won't lose focus against the top teams, but I remember 2002 and worry about losing it against the 2nd tier teams, like Indiana that year and Marquette this year (sort of). We will face teams in the NCAAT who could beat us if we lose focus for any length of time and that's my biggest fear for this team.

On the other hand, the way we broke out of our few poor stretches so far this year suggests to me that our leadership and communication is pretty good, and that's why I wouldn't put that as the "first" issue.

I will defer to others on the KenPom stats as I've never dug into them deeply. But I do think we should be pleased with where we are on both offensive and defensive efficiency at this point, and we're only going to get better. Thanks to Kedsy and pfrduke for those additions.

The focus thing is potentially our biggest enemy. But I think our roster can be described as hungry right now, whereas 2002 was not. We've got Seth and Kyrie on the court for the first time and our bigs all looking to prove themselves. That's a dynamic that I feel pretty good about which makes me see leadership/communication as a more immediate need. Both are very important though.

JohnGalt
11-29-2010, 02:31 PM
We're 6-0 including a win vs. #4 K State on the road. So we've seen enough to take a first crack at trying to answer Jumbo's questions.

1. Leadership

2. Agendas

3. Free Throws -

4. Kelly vs. Hairston

5. The Plums?

6. Forcing TO's

7. Late Game Situations

Great thoughts, superdave.

1. Leadership What I've really noticed from Kyle over the first several games is his ability to hit a shot when we need it. Granted - based on the margins of victory - there have only been a handful of opportunities for this to come up, but when Marquette was storming back or when KState was pushing it close, Kyle always seemed to answer with what is quickly becoming his trademark baseline jumper. His shooting mechanics - despite how good they've been in the past - appear to be even more advanced...he's money falling away, with a hand in his face, or wide open. And IMO, that shows he's confident enough to want the ball and WIN the game. Leadership 101.

2. Agendas Seth is still looking for his rhythm. Like superdave mentioned, he's getting plenty of minutes and plenty of looks, but it appears he's having a more difficult time adjusting from last year's tempo (obviously only in practice) to this year's tempo. Some of this may be recurrent from the freedom he was allowed at Liberty, as well. It's still early though. He'll settle down.

3. Free Throws - Not much to add to superdave's comments here. The Bigs need to work on it. It seems Mason is really trying to guide his shots into the basket rather than shoot them. Hmm, just a thought.

4. Kelly vs. Hairston I think most in the know hinted that Andre and Kelly made the biggest strides over the offseason. It seems Kelly's added bulk has really given him a boost of confidence on the floor. His unique skill set really brings a great dynamic when he's on the court and that, coupled with his much-improved knowledge of the Duke system, really makes him playing more than Josh not a huge surprise from my side. I will say though that the level in which he's improved has greatly surprised (and pleased!) me.

5. The Plums? I think the big thing here is that the Plums have both made noticeable strides on the defensive side of the ball. Do they still make mistakes on rotations? Sure. But we can all agree that their reaching is WAY down from where it has been in the past meaning they can both spend more time on the court. Defensively, the rotations and help defense seem to be becoming more and more 2nd nature. Let's hope the trend continues and they continue to improve in this regard.

Oh, also...Mason having a +/-25pt, +/-15reb game against a quality opponent and basically putting the team on his back (offensively) is always a reason for jubilation.

6. Forcing TO's Great stats, superdave. With the increased speed we can expect to turn the ball over more often. However, it seems the team gets SO amped up to be on the court and wants to run the ball SO much that they let themselves get sloppy. It's what let Marquette back in the game and in ACC play it could come back to haunt them on an away court. I think it will get sorted out and has Kyrie gets more time in a Duke uni, everything will tighten up.

7. Late Game Situations With MSU on Wednesday...we might need to prepare ourselves for our first!

gam7
11-29-2010, 02:51 PM
It might be an even better comparison to look at Pomeroy's offensive and defensive efficiency numbers. Last year our final offensive efficiency was 123.5 and our defensive efficiency was 85.9. This year after 6 games we are at 120.5 offensively and 84.3 defensively. A little bit worse on offense and a little bit better on defense. These numbers are supposedly adjusted for the competition, so we should be comparing apples to apples.

Our last year's numbers placed us 1st in offensive efficiency and 4th in defensive efficiency. If we take this year's numbers and compare them to last year nationally, we'd have been 3rd in offensive efficiency and 1st in defensive efficiency. This year offense seems to be more inefficient nationally (at least at the top) because we are 2nd in both, a few percentage points behind Kansas in both categories.




Kedsy, I agree with you that the team's focus appears to be the biggest intangible issue right now.

But, I actually think that turnover percentage would be a better stat to consider at this point with respect to turnovers than offensive and defensive efficiency because Pomeroy's efficiency numbers for this season still incorporate his pre-season projections for offensive and defensive efficiency, which account for about 40-50% of our overall efficiency numbers at this point in the season (he said that the weight of the pre-season projection numbers would carry the weight of approximately 5 games and would be steadily phased out by mid-January). So, even though they are not adjusted for strength of schedule, I think turnover percentage would be a more helpful stat. By mid-January, it will be easier to make apples to apples comparisons of the adjusted efficiency numbers.

Kedsy
11-29-2010, 03:06 PM
Kedsy, I agree with you that the team's focus appears to be the biggest intangible issue right now.

But, I actually think that turnover percentage would be a better stat to consider at this point with respect to turnovers than offensive and defensive efficiency because Pomeroy's efficiency numbers for this season still incorporate his pre-season projections for offensive and defensive efficiency, which account for about 40-50% of our overall efficiency numbers at this point in the season (he said that the weight of the pre-season projection numbers would carry the weight of approximately 5 games and would be steadily phased out by mid-January). So, even though they are not adjusted for strength of schedule, I think turnover percentage would be a more helpful stat. By mid-January, it will be easier to make apples to apples comparisons of the adjusted efficiency numbers.

I understand what you're saying about the pres-season bias in the adjusted Pomeroy. My problem with turnover percentage is it's just one facet of the efficiency story. Our turnover rate is worse, from 16.4 to 18.8, and our offensive rebounding % is way down from 40.3 to 34.8, but our FT rate is up from 37.9 to 40.5 and our eFG is way up from 50.5 to 58.3. Will this continue against tougher opponents? Probably to some extent, although we can't easily predict how much. I expect our FT rate will go even higher and our eFG will dip a little but not too much. And of course I'm also hoping our turnover rate improves. I don't think there's much hope we can approach last season's historic offensive rebounding numbers.

I just think looking at the overall picture is more revealing than one aspect (turnovers), even if we have to wade through a little bias for another month or so. At the very least, if we're going to use raw numbers, we should at least look at all four factors and not just turnovers.

gam7
11-29-2010, 03:07 PM
Great thoughts, superdave.

...

3. Free Throws - Not much to add to superdave's comments here. The Bigs need to work on it. It seems Mason is really trying to guide his shots into the basket rather than shoot them. Hmm, just a thought.

4. Kelly vs. Hairston I think most in the know hinted that Andre and Kelly made the biggest strides over the offseason. It seems Kelly's added bulk has really given him a boost of confidence on the floor. His unique skill set really brings a great dynamic when he's on the court and that, coupled with his much-improved knowledge of the Duke system, really makes him playing more than Josh not a huge surprise from my side. I will say though that the level in which he's improved has greatly surprised (and pleased!) me.

...



3. With respect to FTs, I think we should expect a bit of a regression to the average for Kyle and perhaps for Kyrie. Having said that, I think our end-of-game FT shooting will be very, very good with Kyrie, Nolan, Kyle, Curry, Dawkins. Obviously it would be great if Mason could shoot better than 40%.

4. I agree with you that folks seemed to expect more from Kelly coming into this season based on his off-season, but I don't believe people had the same feeling about Andre. I remember reading that he didn't have a very impressive summer in the NC Pro Am league and there just didn't seem to be much buzz around him. He has been a very nice surprise.

PADukeMom
11-29-2010, 03:28 PM
I intend to do this during the season (although I will need help during the first two weeks of January, when I will be in Africa and not able to keep up with the games).

Who gave you permission to leave the country during the season??? *LOL*:p

superdave
11-29-2010, 03:55 PM
4. I agree with you that folks seemed to expect more from Kelly coming into this season based on his off-season, but I don't believe people had the same feeling about Andre. I remember reading that he didn't have a very impressive summer in the NC Pro Am league and there just didn't seem to be much buzz around him. He has been a very nice surprise.

Andre is 55% on 3s so far, has added some shot fakes to his arsenal, and is leaps and bounds better defensively. I did not see him being much more than an improved 3 point specialist this year. So I'm quite happy.

I think Ryan may grow the most over the course of the season (well, except maybe for Kyrie). The game is slowing down for him a lot. He does so many little things that help the team - like the big man version of Jon Scheyer.

bird
11-29-2010, 03:59 PM
Kedsy, I agree with you that the team's focus appears to be the biggest intangible issue right now.

Add me to the "focus" group. Against Oregon in particular, I found myself hoping that that 2010-11 Duke is not 2009-2010 Kentucky in the focus department. If you get used to being able to ratchet up the play at will, there may come a day when you push on the pedal and nothing happens.

The "great" Duke teams not only had focus against the softest competition, but actually seemed to relish putting the boot in.

PaIronDuke
11-29-2010, 04:14 PM
Thanks. That's a lot of what I'm trying to do (inhaling deeply and leaning the opposite way), but there are a couple of other factors at work. Last season, for whatever reason, I had a very strong feeling that the team could do something big. That was both from my own analysis and what I was hearing from those close to the team. When you contrasted my vision of what that team could become with the increasing frustration and/or panic from large segments of the Duke fanbase, I felt almost compelled to argue at length to get people to see a different perspective.

This season, a lot of the help is well-deserved. But while I haven't been reading the boards nearly as much as ever before, I do get a sense that the heightened expectations in some ways unintentionally dismiss many of the areas that made last season's team so great, which are now missing. Can they be replaced, or at least compensated for in other ways? Of course. But I guess I don't like hyperbole in either direction.

Finally, today is actually somewhat bittersweet for me, and I imagine for many other fans too. Normally, I anticipate the first game of the season with great fervor. But today truly marks the end of the reign of last year's team. And that championship -- and all the other achievements along the way -- might've made 2009-10 the most satisfying in all the years I've followed Duke basketball. It's also taken a lot of "pressure" off going forward. I K wants everyone to be hungry, but I think I'm in a healthy, satisfied place, where every game far, far from life and death. And I really miss last year's guys. So I urge everyone, before tipoff today, to take one more glance back to last season, remember the guys who made it possible, and just smile. Those great memories should linger forever.

Jumbo, you probably don't realize how much pleasure and reassurance you gave us quiet, meek-but attentive-lurkers during last year's glorious run..

Methinks there is a bit of a poet/philosopher beneath that gruff exterior......

superdave
11-29-2010, 04:56 PM
Every team in the country (save for unc I hope) is going to get better offensively as the season progresses. So will Duke's monster defense improve a similar amount? I think Duke has tons of room to grow offensively, but how much better can we get defensively? We're really really good defensively now, and we're only 6 games in.

Kedsy
11-29-2010, 05:14 PM
Every team in the country (save for unc I hope) is going to get better offensively as the season progresses. So will Duke's monster defense improve a similar amount? I think Duke has tons of room to grow offensively, but how much better can we get defensively? We're really really good defensively now, and we're only 6 games in.

I think we have plenty of room to grow defensively. Our bigs have improved their rotations tremendously but are still out of position on occasion. Our defensive rebounding can certainly improve. And I think some of our players can lose a little concentration against a disciplined motion-oriented set and give up backdoor layups and more open three-pointers than I expected. Some of that comes with the defensive system we're using (less-than-stellar defensive rebounding and susceptibility to the backdoor cut) but we can still improve in those areas.

The good news is a young team generally has a big learning curve on defense at Duke, and this team seems to have caught on fairly well early on. But to me that means the potential is even greater as they truly catch on to the system.

Having said all that, just because we have a lot of room to grow on defense doesn't mean for sure we're going to do it. But I have high hopes.

MChambers
11-29-2010, 08:53 PM
I think we have plenty of room to grow defensively. Our bigs have improved their rotations tremendously but are still out of position on occasion. Our defensive rebounding can certainly improve. And I think some of our players can lose a little concentration against a disciplined motion-oriented set and give up backdoor layups and more open three-pointers than I expected. Some of that comes with the defensive system we're using (less-than-stellar defensive rebounding and susceptibility to the backdoor cut) but we can still improve in those areas.

The good news is a young team generally has a big learning curve on defense at Duke, and this team seems to have caught on fairly well early on. But to me that means the potential is even greater as they truly catch on to the system.

Having said all that, just because we have a lot of room to grow on defense doesn't mean for sure we're going to do it. But I have high hopes.
Having two senior stars who both do at least a very good job on the defensive end sure helps.

superdave
11-30-2010, 09:31 AM
I think we have plenty of room to grow defensively. Our bigs have improved their rotations tremendously but are still out of position on occasion. Our defensive rebounding can certainly improve. And I think some of our players can lose a little concentration against a disciplined motion-oriented set and give up backdoor layups and more open three-pointers than I expected. Some of that comes with the defensive system we're using (less-than-stellar defensive rebounding and susceptibility to the backdoor cut) but we can still improve in those areas.

The good news is a young team generally has a big learning curve on defense at Duke, and this team seems to have caught on fairly well early on. But to me that means the potential is even greater as they truly catch on to the system.

Having said all that, just because we have a lot of room to grow on defense doesn't mean for sure we're going to do it. But I have high hopes.

We have not picked up full court as much I would have thought 6 weeks ago. We seem to have the personnel to do it in spurts too if you wanted to put Thornton and Hairston in and have them run the first trap on the inbounds pass, or even do it with our rotation guys. Is this something we'll implement later on? Or is it like last year's zone D which is unlikely to be seen this year? This would be great to run for 2-3 minutes at a time just to throw teams into a funk.

Kedsy
11-30-2010, 09:49 AM
We have not picked up full court as much I would have thought 6 weeks ago. We seem to have the personnel to do it in spurts too if you wanted to put Thornton and Hairston in and have them run the first trap on the inbounds pass, or even do it with our rotation guys. Is this something we'll implement later on? Or is it like last year's zone D which is unlikely to be seen this year? This would be great to run for 2-3 minutes at a time just to throw teams into a funk.

Yeah, before the season K said we'd be picking up full court most of the time, but I was dubious even then. Having said that, what appears to be the token pressure we're using now must be more than it seems because (with the possible exception of Marquette) all of our opponents so far were clearly playing faster on offense than their comfort level, and at least some of them made a point in the post game interviews that they were forced into too fast a pace.

If an opponent surges out to a lead, however, I could easily see us running heavy full court pressure and/or an aggressive half-court trap for 2 to 5 minutes to try to force turnovers to start a Duke run and get the opponent out of it's rhythm.

DukieInBrasil
11-30-2010, 10:04 AM
I think we have plenty of room to grow defensively. Our bigs have improved their rotations tremendously but are still out of position on occasion. Our defensive rebounding can certainly improve. And I think some of our players can lose a little concentration against a disciplined motion-oriented set and give up backdoor layups and more open three-pointers than I expected. Some of that comes with the defensive system we're using (less-than-stellar defensive rebounding and susceptibility to the backdoor cut) but we can still improve in those areas.

The good news is a young team generally has a big learning curve on defense at Duke, and this team seems to have caught on fairly well early on. But to me that means the potential is even greater as they truly catch on to the system.

Having said all that, just because we have a lot of room to grow on defense doesn't mean for sure we're going to do it. But I have high hopes.

One of the pleasant surprises for me concerning Duke's D has been Kyrie. Everyone knew that he was a gifted playmaker and scorer but I don't think there was much hype about his D, but he has done an excellent job on that count so far. Assuming that he learns the system as the season goes on he may become a defensive juggernaut by the end, which will only help the other facets of Duke's defensive schemes.
I have been surprised by the number of good looks we are giving up at the 3pt line, but we haven't really been hurt by it yet as we haven't faced any teams with stellar 3pt potential.
Overall I've been impressed by the level of D so far in the young season, and if it improves then we'll be in great shape.
The only thing that has been worrisome so far has been Nolan's decision-making. Overall he still has a + a/to but he has been rather careless with the ball in certain games and was terrible against the press vs. Oregon. He also has shown a tendency to drive in the lane and force off-balance or out-of-rhythm shots, which has surprised me. Of course, if he were making those shots I'd be loving it but he usually doesn't make them so it looks like he's pushing too hard at those times. His level of play has still been good, but I'm hoping that he settles down a little bit.

jv001
11-30-2010, 10:15 AM
One of the pleasant surprises for me concerning Duke's D has been Kyrie. Everyone knew that he was a gifted playmaker and scorer but I don't think there was much hype about his D, but he has done an excellent job on that count so far. Assuming that he learns the system as the season goes on he may become a defensive juggernaut by the end, which will only help the other facets of Duke's defensive schemes.
I have been surprised by the number of good looks we are giving up at the 3pt line, but we haven't really been hurt by it yet as we haven't faced any teams with stellar 3pt potential.
Overall I've been impressed by the level of D so far in the young season, and if it improves then we'll be in great shape.
The only thing that has been worrisome so far has been Nolan's decision-making. Overall he still has a + a/to but he has been rather careless with the ball in certain games and was terrible against the press vs. Oregon. He also has shown a tendency to drive in the lane and force off-balance or out-of-rhythm shots, which has surprised me. Of course, if he were making those shots I'd be loving it but he usually doesn't make them so it looks like he's pushing too hard at those times. His level of play has still been good, but I'm hoping that he settles down a little bit.

I certainly agree with your post regarding Kyrie's on the ball defense. He's much better than I could have imagined. Mason, Ryan & Miles have done their jobs also. I agree with your observations on Nolan's decision making. He did struggle against Oregon's press and sometimes it looks like he wants to score at all costs. But I'm not worried because Coach K will make him aware of these few mistakes. Nolan's defense has been great and he's just a wonderful young man. He'll do what it takes to make the team successful. Go Duke!

NSDukeFan
11-30-2010, 10:40 AM
One of the pleasant surprises for me concerning Duke's D has been Kyrie. Everyone knew that he was a gifted playmaker and scorer but I don't think there was much hype about his D, but he has done an excellent job on that count so far. Assuming that he learns the system as the season goes on he may become a defensive juggernaut by the end, which will only help the other facets of Duke's defensive schemes.
I have been surprised by the number of good looks we are giving up at the 3pt line, but we haven't really been hurt by it yet as we haven't faced any teams with stellar 3pt potential.
Overall I've been impressed by the level of D so far in the young season, and if it improves then we'll be in great shape.
The only thing that has been worrisome so far has been Nolan's decision-making. Overall he still has a + a/to but he has been rather careless with the ball in certain games and was terrible against the press vs. Oregon. He also has shown a tendency to drive in the lane and force off-balance or out-of-rhythm shots, which has surprised me. Of course, if he were making those shots I'd be loving it but he usually doesn't make them so it looks like he's pushing too hard at those times. His level of play has still been good, but I'm hoping that he settles down a little bit.

I agree, that besides Andre's fantastic start to the season, one of the most pleasant surprises for me has been Kyrie's defense. That is one thing that freshmen often have a hard time picking up on, and certainly not something that is stressed in AAU play. I would add MChambers point here:


Having two senior stars who both do at least a very good job on the defensive end sure helps.

I wouldn't say that Nolan's decision making has been that worrisome to me this early in the year. He seems to be creating more shots for his teammates and my impression is that he is even a bit quicker to get by his man offensively. I think this leads to a bit of a change to his game, which may require a bit of time before he fully gets his new role. I expect as the season progresses, he will have a better understanding of when and how to attack, as well as when to look to score and when to set up a teammate. I am quite excited about Nolan's ability to create shots for his teammates. I wonder if having Kyrie on the team has shown Nolan more ways to attack and given him new ideas offensively.

COYS
11-30-2010, 10:54 AM
I wouldn't say that Nolan's decision making has been that worrisome to me this early in the year. He seems to be creating more shots for his teammates and my impression is that he is even a bit quicker to get by his man offensively. I think this leads to a bit of a change to his game, which may require a bit of time before he fully gets his new role. I expect as the season progresses, he will have a better understanding of when and how to attack, as well as when to look to score and when to set up a teammate. I am quite excited about Nolan's ability to create shots for his teammates. I wonder if having Kyrie on the team has shown Nolan more ways to attack and given him new ideas offensively.

I think this is a very good point. While I hope that Nolan is able to adjust and play within himself just a bit more, he has made some huge strides as a play-maker. I think we'll see his average of 3.8 turnovers per game go down a bit as he settles down (although I doubt his assists stay as high as 5.7 per game, as the competition stiffens, but you never know).

superdave
12-02-2010, 01:09 PM
"In practices he'll tell somebody, 'Get out of the way, I've got it,' " said Nolan Smith, one of those senior All-Americans. "You don't really hear that too often -- a freshman telling two seniors on the wings to get out of the way. But we have no problem sitting back and letting him do it, because we know he can." (http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/story/14386675/duke-superfrosh-irving-already-worthy-of-superstar-status)

JohnGalt
12-02-2010, 01:43 PM
Thanks for the link superdave. I enjoyed reading it, even though Gary penned it. The following sticks out:


The first-year star was terrific in Duke's 84-79 victory against Michigan State late Wednesday here at Cameron Indoor Stadium, and now the nation knows why those of us who watched Irving throughout high school had no issues ranking the Blue Devils No. 1 this preseason. Yes, they lost three starters from last year's national championship team, but they still upgraded in talent.

What flawless judgment, right? Perhaps he'd like to clarify why his "expert" opinions in the following articles were so far off-base?

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/story/14166510/top-wings-newcomer-barnes-no-1-on-this-list-too

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/story/14149830/preseason-allamericans-not-too-early-to-anoint-heels-barnes


Harrison Barnes is the CBSSports.com Preseason National Player of the Year. And, yes, I know he hasn't played a game in college yet. But that doesn't matter much because I've seen Barnes enough over the past two years to know greatness is coming -- just like I knew greatness was coming with Kevin Durant back in 2006-07, with Derrick Rose back in 2007-08, and with John Wall last season.

I don't mean to pile on Harrison. I really don't. He may very well end up being 1st Team A-A.

However, I do mean to pile on Gary. What a blowhard.

Kedsy
12-02-2010, 06:20 PM
I didn't know where to post this, but I was looking at our season stats and I noticed an apparent strength of our team that nobody seems to talk about: our free throw defense!

After 7 games, our opponents are shooting an aggregate 55.9% from the line. We've held six of our seven opponents under 65% on their free throws. Not only that, six of our seven opponents have shot free throws at a worse percentage against us than they have overall:

Team vs. Duke overall
----- --------- ------
Princeton--- 42.1% 69.8%
Miami (OH)-- 37.5% 70.7%
Colgate----- 80.0% 75.0%
Marquette--- 64.7% 67.4%
Kansas St.-- 47.8% 52.5%
Oregon------ 60.0% 70.3%
Michigan St.- 53.3% 63.7%


Coincidence? Probably. On the other hand, while 7 games is not a huge sample, it's not a completely insignificant one, either. Perhaps we are forcing our opponents to run at a faster pace than they are comfortable and they can't catch their breath or find their legs while shooting the freebies?

Something to think about, anyway.

gam7
12-02-2010, 07:31 PM
I didn't know where to post this, but I was looking at our season stats and I noticed an apparent strength of our team that nobody seems to talk about: our free throw defense!

After 7 games, our opponents are shooting an aggregate 55.9% from the line. We've held six of our seven opponents under 65% on their free throws. Not only that, six of our seven opponents have shot free throws at a worse percentage against us than they have overall:

Team vs. Duke overall
----- --------- ------
Princeton--- 42.1% 69.8%
Miami (OH)-- 37.5% 70.7%
Colgate----- 80.0% 75.0%
Marquette--- 64.7% 67.4%
Kansas St.-- 47.8% 52.5%
Oregon------ 60.0% 70.3%
Michigan St.- 53.3% 63.7%


Coincidence? Probably. On the other hand, while 7 games is not a huge sample, it's not a completely insignificant one, either. Perhaps we are forcing our opponents to run at a faster pace than they are comfortable and they can't catch their breath or find their legs while shooting the freebies?

Something to think about, anyway.

There may be something to the tired legs argument. Also, playing against the number 1 team in the country brings with it some added pressure that may factor in. Some of our "success" on this front may be attributable to our homecourt advantage (5 home games). I'm sure someone around here has looked into the statistical impact of all of the free throw shenanigans at Cameron - historically, I'd imagine opponent free throw shooting is worse at Cameron than on their homecourts.

MChambers
12-02-2010, 08:32 PM
There may be something to the tired legs argument. Also, playing against the number 1 team in the country brings with it some added pressure that may factor in. Some of our "success" on this front may be attributable to our homecourt advantage (5 home games). I'm sure someone around here has looked into the statistical impact of all of the free throw shenanigans at Cameron - historically, I'd imagine opponent free throw shooting is worse at Cameron than on their homecourts.
Last year, we were decent on free throw defense, with opponents shooting only 68.7%. I think I theorized that this might be partly attributable to most of our fouls being committed by our bigs, putting the opponents' bigs on the line. This may be true again this year. I agree that the tired legs argument has some weight, at least this year.

I remember that about 20 years ago some Duke professors analyzed the success of the Cameron Crazies' free throw distraction techniques. I remember that the total silence treatment was the most distracting, to all teams other than Kerlina, and the professors theorized that UNC players were used to playing in total silence, at the Dean Dome.

Of course, this preceded Speedo Guy.

gam7
12-02-2010, 08:43 PM
Last year, we were decent on free throw defense, with opponents shooting only 68.7%. I think I theorized that this might be partly attributable to most of our fouls being committed by our bigs, putting the opponents' bigs on the line. This may be true again this year. I agree that the tired legs argument has some weight, at least this year.

I remember that about 20 years ago some Duke professors analyzed the success of the Cameron Crazies' free throw distraction techniques. I remember that the total silence treatment was the most distracting, to all teams other than Kerlina, and the professors theorized that UNC players were used to playing in total silence, at the Dean Dome.

Of course, this preceded Speedo Guy.

Really? We give our own players the silent treatment! Should the Crazies be rethinking that?

MChambers
12-02-2010, 08:53 PM
Really? We give our own players the silent treatment! Should the Crazies be rethinking that?
That's just my memory of a short blurb in SI about the study, which was noteworthy mostly for its digs at UNC. Anybody else remember this? It was written in the days before the Internet, so I can't find any references to it online.

Did find a Big 12 study on the same topic, however:

http://digital.library.okstate.edu/etd/umi-okstate-2406.pdf

Kedsy
12-02-2010, 11:37 PM
Really? We give our own players the silent treatment! Should the Crazies be rethinking that?

My recollection was the most effective "free throw defense" by the fans was to be totally silent and then scream once, in unison, just as the player was releasing the ball. Doesn't fit as well with the UNC joke (which I agree is pretty funny), but I believe that was the silent treatment that performed best in the study.

superdave
12-05-2010, 02:43 PM
I think Duke has played as well as I had expected to date. Irving is scoring a little more than I anticipated and Duke has played Singler at the 4 a little more than what I thought we'd see as well.

I'm pleased with the toughness, the deeper bench and the level of play we've have had defensively at times. Our offensive is explosive as you'd expect.

Going forward, I want to see us play with more focus. That's becoming a big hurdle - the guys are all on the same page but not as disciplined and focused as they need to be. We need to be more than an all-star team and more a unit with individuals who execute their roles really well in order to collectively beat their opponents on every play. I think the time between now and the ACC will be a good stretch where guys can focus on certain core competencies as roles become more clearly defined.

I do want to see Seth Curry's role get defined more so he knows what he can and should bring to the table, and not have him worried about minutes, touches and shots. Also, I'd like to see some more determination to feed the post, throw some presses and traps out for brief stretches and I do think we see some tweaks to get Kyle more set plays like we saw in January last year.

I do have a few concerns - Nolan and Kyle are shooting poorly from 3 compared to where they wound up last year. Our bigs are not as disciplined on D as I'd like. Our free throws need some attention and we need to take care of the ball more (that goes for everyone).

Good start, good opponents so far. Time to take a step back and figure out how to go forward!

Saratoga2
12-05-2010, 04:49 PM
I think Duke has played as well as I had expected to date. Irving is scoring a little more than I anticipated and Duke has played Singler at the 4 a little more than what I thought we'd see as well.

I'm pleased with the toughness, the deeper bench and the level of play we've have had defensively at times. Our offensive is explosive as you'd expect.

Going forward, I want to see us play with more focus. That's becoming a big hurdle - the guys are all on the same page but not as disciplined and focused as they need to be. We need to be more than an all-star team and more a unit with individuals who execute their roles really well in order to collectively beat their opponents on every play. I think the time between now and the ACC will be a good stretch where guys can focus on certain core competencies as roles become more clearly defined.

I do want to see Seth Curry's role get defined more so he knows what he can and should bring to the table, and not have him worried about minutes, touches and shots. Also, I'd like to see some more determination to feed the post, throw some presses and traps out for brief stretches and I do think we see some tweaks to get Kyle more set plays like we saw in January last year.

I do have a few concerns - Nolan and Kyle are shooting poorly from 3 compared to where they wound up last year. Our bigs are not as disciplined on D as I'd like. Our free throws need some attention and we need to take care of the ball more (that goes for everyone).

Good start, good opponents so far. Time to take a step back and figure out how to go forward!

I wondered where this thread had gone? Good to see it is still active.

I wondered why when you have Andre shooting 50% from 3 that he gets so few opportunities to make that shot, while other players shooting much lower take so many? I am sure defenses have taken note of the abilitiy, but it would seem that an effort would be made with screens and such to free Andre to make the shot.

Another point is that all of the players on the Duke team have concentrated virtually their entire young lives to learn the game. A lot have been to many skills camps and they also get lots of high quality coaching along the way. Yet you see really talented players who don't seem to be able to put the ball up to the net with an arc or touch. Defensive pressure may result in much of the reason but it is frustrating to watch our inside players struggle to put close in shots in the basket unless they are dunking.

I think the month of December will be advantageous for the team, as they have a lot of tape of some competitive games and will have the time to work on the areas of deficiency, such as leaving wide open shooters. When we get into the ACC schedule, we will need to have improved and I'll bet that will happen.

Bob Green
12-05-2010, 06:27 PM
I wondered why when you have Andre shooting 50% from 3 that he gets so few opportunities to make that shot, while other players shooting much lower take so many? I am sure defenses have taken note of the abilitiy, but it would seem that an effort would be made with screens and such to free Andre to make the shot.

I believe sideline-out-of-bounds plays would be a great opportunity to run plays designed to free up Dawkins for a 3-pointer.

superdave
12-05-2010, 08:22 PM
I believe sideline-out-of-bounds plays would be a great opportunity to run plays designed to free up Dawkins for a 3-pointer.

I recall inbounds plays for Kyle Nolan and Kyrie to shoot 3s, as well as to Ryan and Mason for layups. Have we run anything else?

Anyone expect more full court pressure?

Kedsy
12-05-2010, 08:23 PM
I didn't know where to post this, but I was looking at our season stats and I noticed an apparent strength of our team that nobody seems to talk about: our free throw defense!

After 7 games, our opponents are shooting an aggregate 55.9% from the line. We've held six of our seven opponents under 65% on their free throws. Not only that, six of our seven opponents have shot free throws at a worse percentage against us than they have overall...

Interestingly enough, Butler, who has shot 68.5% from the line for the season, shot 10 for 20 against us (50%). For the season our opponents have shot only 54.9% from the line.

Maybe there really is something to this free throw defense thing?

Also, I'm going to try and give Phase 2 a shot, hopefully tomorrow (Monday, 12/6). If anybody has a major objection to that, or has something they want to make sure I include, please let me know.

sagegrouse
12-05-2010, 08:27 PM
1) Everyone knows how talented this group is, but how much will it miss the leadership and little things last year's three seniors brought?

2) How will all the different agendas line up?

3) Will FT shooting be a problem?

4) Who's the first big off the bench -- Kelly or Hairston?

5) Can the Plumlees stop making so many mental mistakes?

6) Can Duke force enough turnovers to make up for last season's awesome offensive rebound and get enough easy baskets to make up for the total control Scheyer had over the game?

7) How will this team operate in a late-game situation?



1) Missing leadership? Looks pretty strong right now -- we'll see once the conference starts.

2) Different agendas? I don't see a problem. Same answer as #1.

3) Will FT shooting be a problem? Only with Mason.

4) Who's the first big off the bench? Surprise - Ryan Kelly is starting.

5) Plumlee mental mistakes? Mason making good decisions and avoiding fouls. Miles is playing good defense but reaching in way too much. Summary: defense has been good. Now what about the offense?

6) Forcing enough TOs to offset RBs? Yep. Looks good.

7) Late-game situation? We haven't found out yet.

Other big issue -- no injuries yet.

Other big issue -- who thought Andre would be playing starter's minutes and producing big-time?

sagegrouse

DukieInBrasil
12-05-2010, 08:28 PM
I do want to see Seth Curry's role get defined more so he knows what he can and should bring to the table, and not have him worried about minutes, touches and shots. Also, I'd like to see some more determination to feed the post, throw some presses and traps out for brief stretches and I do think we see some tweaks to get Kyle more set plays like we saw in January last year.
forward!
As for feeding the post, I've been noticing that we are doing that a lot, but the timing is off. It seems like Nolan and Kyrie in particular have been throwing Mason and Miles lots of passes that look like they are intended as alley oops but don't turn into them b/c the MPs aren't ready/aren't expecting that play. I've seen several plays so far where it looks like someone driving the ball throws up what ends up being recorded as an errant shot, but what looks to me to have been an attempt to lead an MP into a dunk but that the MP in question just didn't recognize it. I remember Kyle doing this vs. KSU and I've seen Nolan and Kyrie do it as well. Miles has pulled off a nifty spin move in the post for reverse layups lately and Mason has had a few nice plays off of a feed, but for the most part I wouldn't want to feed the MPs on the block much more than we are.

superdave
12-05-2010, 08:29 PM
Interestingly enough, Butler, who has shot 68.5% from the line for the season, shot 10 for 20 against us (50%). For the season our opponents have shot only 54.9% from the line.

Maybe there really is something to this free throw defense thing?

Also, I'm going to try and give Phase 2 a shot, hopefully tomorrow (Monday, 12/6). If anybody has a major objection to that, or has something they want to make sure I include, please let me know.

Thanks for taking the lead on Phase II, Kedsy....unless of course Jumbo appears tonight!

I think I need to exhale after the last 4 games we've played. We definitely appear to have a front-loaded season.

superdave
12-05-2010, 08:35 PM
As for feeding the post, I've been noticing that we are doing that a lot, but the timing is off. It seems like Nolan and Kyrie in particular have been throwing Mason and Miles lots of passes that look like they are intended as alley oops but don't turn into them b/c the MPs aren't ready/aren't expecting that play. I've seen several plays so far where it looks like someone driving the ball throws up what ends up being recorded as an errant shot, but what looks to me to have been an attempt to lead an MP into a dunk but that the MP in question just didn't recognize it. I remember Kyle doing this vs. KSU and I've seen Nolan and Kyrie do it as well. Miles has pulled off a nifty spin move in the post for reverse layups lately and Mason has had a few nice plays off of a feed, but for the most part I wouldn't want to feed the MPs on the block much more than we are.

My assumption was that Kyrie, Seth and Nolan would drive and dish more. But Nolan hits his floater, Kyrie goes off the backboard and Seth has not gotten in the lane much. I was expecting JWill to Carlos type drive, dish and dunks. So we have seen very little of that. The shorter lobs we've seen the past few games have been largely broken up by the opponents, so that either needs work or to be reconsidered.

We may see more plays where Kyle posts up going forward though.

coot
12-05-2010, 08:58 PM
All observations so far are positive for Duke. The only thing that I see so far for improvement is that Singler's jumpshot is likely to get better and better. The time off for knee rehab probably set him back just a little, I think his jumper will be unstoppable most of the time this season.

Mason is better that I expected.

Andre is doing as good as I thought he would. I put a thread up before the season asking everyone to discuss whether Seth or Andre would play more minutes. I certainly thought that Andre would fit as a spot up shooter and I knew his strength would help him defensively. Most everyone on that thread thought Seth would be getting more minutes than Andre. Well, Seth is a good handler and a good player too, but I think I was right about this one. Andre worked hard over the summer and he is a little ahead of Seth and will continue to be for the rest of the year, I think.

Nolan is solid and picked up right where he left off last season. Miles is awesome off the bench. Ryan is doing really good and is what I consider to be a great person on the floor, people are lucky to have a teammate that plays good hard defense, hits open shots and really plays the "role player" role very well, never hurting the team.

Kyrie is so good thus far, that I can only think of Jason Kidd, Steve Nash that are this impacting. Ty Lawson had good speed but not the same shot as Kyrie, Ray Felton wasnt this quick. Jason Williams is probably the best comparison. Whatever you say, Kyrie is flat out a pleasant player for Duke and we better enjoy him.

Enough said....there are some good teams out there OSU, Kansas, Mich State, etc. it's going to be interesting come March/April but with this much talent and K on our side, I'm looking forward to cutting down the nets for a second year in a row.

Newton_14
12-05-2010, 09:40 PM
1) Everyone knows how talented this group is, but how much will it miss the leadership and little things last year's three seniors brought?
I think the answer to this is "a lot" and it will be much harder to replace than some people think. Coach K is doing the right things to compensate -- playing faster, smaller, etc. -- and it's nice to have two seniors from a national championship team back to lead the way. But just as 2001-02 wasn't quite the same without Battier, so will this season be different without the combo of Scheyer, Zoubek and Thomas.

2) How will all the different agendas line up?
Last year's team seem focused on exactly one thing -- winning. Everyone had pretty well-defined roles and it was a veteran group. This year, though, Kyle and Nolan have to worry about draft position. Kyrie is likely to be one-and-done. Mason has thoughts about the draft. Curry has to adjust to coming off the bench. Dawkins has to fight for minutes with yet another talented player coming it at his position next year. There's Kelly vs. Hairston for PT. Competition is a good thing, but the focus still has to be on team success and recognizing that the other things will take care of themselves as a result.

3) Will FT shooting be a problem?
This worries me too. We're replacing an automatic guy in Scheyer. I'm not sure how good Kyrie will be from the line, but that's different in late-game situations. I expect the Plumlees to get to the line more often than Thomas and Zoubs, and neither makes me comfortable at the line. I could see this becoming an issue.

4) Who's the first big off the bench -- Kelly or Hairston?
I'm interested to see how that unfolds.

5) Can the Plumlees stop making so many mental mistakes?
It's unreasonable to expect them to have the dedication to screening, talking and interior defense that Thomas and Zoubek mastered. But the Plumlees have to be better than last season, when they routinely missed assignments. Simple as that.

6) Can Duke force enough turnovers to make up for last season's awesome offensive rebound and get enough easy baskets to make up for the total control Scheyer had over the game?
That's really what it comes down to with the new approach to match the new personnel. This team will look very different. Strengths have become weaknesses and weaknesses have become strengths. It's just a question of whether the tradeoffs come out as net positives, as they did last season.

7) How will this team operate in a late-game situation?
Last year's perimeter trio had the experience and chemistry of working together for years, so everything flowed smoothly. But if the ball is truly in Irving's hands, then that makes things a little more confusing in working with Nolan and Kyle. This will be something to watch early.

There are plenty of other things to consider, too, but I wanted to keep this somewhat brief. So, there you have it. Hope you all are doing well, and enjoy the game Sunday!

1) Everyone knows how talented this group is, but how much will it miss the leadership and little things last year's three seniors brought?
So far this has been ok. In addition to Nolan and Kyle, Kyrie has shown signs of leadership on the court, when guys are not playing up to par. Which is great. One note on Kyle and Nolan, and someone else hit on this earlier in another thread, but part of the reason they have struggled at times, could be in part due to adjusting to all the responsibilities that come with being captains/leaders. An adjustment, I think they both will make just fine.

2) How will all the different agendas line up?
In terms of guys playing to impress NBA scouts, I never believed it would be an issue, and so far it hasn't been. I do always worry about kids not getting as many minutes as they would like, and how that affects their attitude, but again, so far, there are no signs this is or will be a problem. Still something to be aware of moving forward.

3) Will FT shooting be a problem?
In the first few games it appeared it could be a problem. The guys have picked it up in the bigger games though. Mason has to work this out though. It is apparent he will get to the line a lot. He needs to find a way to get to 60% at least.

4) Who's the first big off the bench -- Kelly or Hairston?
Kelly and Miles have switched roles, so for now, the answer is Miles. If Andre keeps up his play, the answer may change yet again. Either way, in this next phase, I am pulling for Miles, Ryan, and Seth to step their games up to the point where the new Big 3 do not have to play 35+ minutes a game. We need Miles, Ryan, and Seth to be good enough to force K to play them more than he has lately. That will make us a much stronger and far more dangerous team.

5) Can the Plumlees stop making so many mental mistakes?
Mason has stepped it up big time on both ends. Miles is there on defense, save for the fouls, but to honest, he has gotten hosed more than a few times by the zebra's. His defensive positioning has been good, needs to work on not reaching in. On offense, he simply needs to be stronger with the ball, and ready for passes from the guards. This next Phase is very important for his mindset and development.

6) Can Duke force enough turnovers to make up for last season's awesome offensive rebound and get enough easy baskets to make up for the total control Scheyer had over the game?
So far the answer is yes. Rebounds are down but forcing to's is up. I really hope to see K go back to the strategy from days of old, of the full court zone press in first half's of home games to try to land the knockout punch early in games. The 2001 team was great at that with Shane at the point of the press. Kyle would be good there for this team.

7) How will this team operate in a late-game situation?
We have taken the air out of the ball in some games, though not as early as in times past. We have 2 great guards in Nolan and Kyrie that we can hand the ball to near the end of the shot clock and make good things happen. Jason Williams was the best ever at this and was practically automatic off the high screen and roll from Boozer. I expect Kyrie will be similar.

We we also go to a variety of lineups to keep good ball handlers and shooters on the floor.

All in all, Phase I went well. We beat several good teams, got a much welcome surprise in Andre Dawkins, a breakout game from Mason to go along with much better overall play from him, Kyrie made a case for best PG in America, and our 2 Seniors stepped up when the going got tough. We also stayed relatively healthy provide this Kyrie "Toe" issue ends up being a minor deal.

A very nice start to the season, but much work to do. Nice to be undefeated against a good schedule when not really near clicking on all cylinders yet...

DukieInBrasil
12-05-2010, 11:11 PM
My assumption was that Kyrie, Seth and Nolan would drive and dish more. But Nolan hits his floater, Kyrie goes off the backboard and Seth has not gotten in the lane much. I was expecting JWill to Carlos type drive, dish and dunks. So we have seen very little of that. The shorter lobs we've seen the past few games have been largely broken up by the opponents, so that either needs work or to be reconsidered.

I agree about the drive n dish, i thought we'd see more of that too. Kyrie has been so amazing finishing that i'm not even worried about that. What does worry me a little is Nolan's insistence at putting up overly-difficult shots when he gets in the lane rather than recognizing that a pass to someone else could lead to a higher quality shot, which is where the drive n dish becomes so effective. I've noticed that the spacing is not particularly good for that on Nolan's drives, so the dish in the lane hasn't been as available, but there are lots of other passes that could be made. Mostly it is just that Nolan is holding the ball too long, he needs to recognize one dribble earlier and go for the pull up jumper or pass it rather than throwing up some of the circus shots he's been launching. Despite some of his wild shots, he still has a good FG% overall, despite a rather low 3FG%.

ACCBBallFan
12-06-2010, 08:04 AM
Jumbo usually has a phase question called biggest surprise.

That would be Dre, especially his defensive acumen. A close second would be Kyrie surpassing the ridiculously high expectations placed on frosh.

On the flip side, not garnering as many tunovers to offset the somwhat expected drop off in rebounding and the rebounding not being as good as hoped are my top 2.

Phase 0 has been amazingly successful at getting the top 6 into form, albeit a different top 6 than many expeced. Kelly starting and not hurting you could improve to Ryan helping and the aforementioned Dre on both ends of the court, plus Mason distancing himself from Miles and Ryan and Josh.

In the next Phase, Duke needs to get the other 4 more engaged in team success on game day, pretty sure they are already contributing to success of the other 6 in the daily practices.

Due to size, Dre gets nod over Seth as the WF. Seth's role is to just be ready for those rare occasions when Kyrie or Nolan get into foul trouble. He should be able to hone his skills as Duke plays lesser teams like Bradley and SLU who were not as storng even before they each lost two starters, Elon and UNC Greensboro.

Miles needs to grow that beard and exhibit more toughness and rebounding. For third year oin a row coach K saw something in him and penciled him in as a starter only to have to soon erase him and insert Ryan Kelly in this case.

It will be good to get Josh and Tyler some PT to reward them for their efforts in practice and their underappreciated feshman dues role.

Another important aspect of this phase is exam week. Especially for the frosh with lots of papers and mid terms due, lots of compeittion for their time spent on academics versus basketball court. Duke used to have that trap game versus Michigan in this timeframe but this year's competition seem slighter the last three weeks of 2010.

NSDukeFan
12-06-2010, 10:16 AM
...

4) Who's the first big off the bench -- Kelly or Hairston?
Kelly and Miles have switched roles, so for now, the answer is Miles. If Andre keeps up his play, the answer may change yet again. Either way, in this next phase, I am pulling for Miles, Ryan, and Seth to step their games up to the point where the new Big 3 do not have to play 35+ minutes a game. We need Miles, Ryan, and Seth to be good enough to force K to play them more than he has lately. That will make us a much stronger and far more dangerous team.

...

All in all, Phase I went well. We beat several good teams, got a much welcome surprise in Andre Dawkins, a breakout game from Mason to go along with much better overall play from him, Kyrie made a case for best PG in America, and our 2 Seniors stepped up when the going got tough. We also stayed relatively healthy provide this Kyrie "Toe" issue ends up being a minor deal.

A very nice start to the season, but much work to do. Nice to be undefeated against a good schedule when not really near clicking on all cylinders yet...

I really enjoyed your post and agree very much with your point in #4. I am hoping to see those three force their way onto the court and they should have every opportunity to gain confidence against some weaker opposition this phase.


Jumbo usually has a phase question called biggest surprise.

That would be Dre, especially his defensive acumen. A close second would be Kyrie surpassing the ridiculously high expectations placed on frosh.

On the flip side, not garnering as many tunovers to offset the somwhat expected drop off in rebounding and the rebounding not being as good as hoped are my top 2.

Phase 0 has been amazingly successful at getting the top 6 into form, albeit a different top 6 than many expeced. Kelly starting and not hurting you could improve to Ryan helping and the aforementioned Dre on both ends of the court, plus Mason distancing himself from Miles and Ryan and Josh.

In the next Phase, Duke needs to get the other 4 more engaged in team success on game day, pretty sure they are already contributing to success of the other 6 in the daily practices.

...

Nice post. I agree with your biggest surprises and I had also hoped for a bit better rebounding, though I certainly don't expect the offensive rebounding numbers from last year.
I also hope to see the team's defense round a bit more into form. So far, I feel the team's defense has been solid, but I think it can get better and has the potential to be dominant but there are a lot of young players that have to really learn communication and rotations so that they are second nature. My impression is the team is doing well in those areas, but with a little more improvement, could be very tough to score against and will hopefully generate more turnovers.

greybeard
12-06-2010, 02:51 PM
I think that Duke has yet to find a half court offense not named Kyrie. I do not think that that is good.

I think that Kyle does not shoot the 3 well when he does not catch off of movement, usually inside out, or is not stepping into a pass.

I think that Duke is shooting the three ball, at least it was against Butler, way too early and from way too far, well at least a step or two, with no rhyme or reason and certainly no rhythm and that explains the misses. Kyrie can create rhythm for his three with a bounce or two that is designed to do just that. Dre has wonderful feet and is the best at catching it with something already going on no matter how far out on the floor he is. That is a great talent to have and he seems to have it.

This year's half court lacks the ability to create step in 3s and other shots that guys feel before they even catch it. There was movement off of numerous screens and then in response to a player coming off a screen, either with the ball or to receive it. There was, for lack of a better description, intelligent play within concepts upon which the half court game was constructed.

While not predictable, Scheyer was readible when maneuvering back and forth off a high screen, as was Smith, and motion and a sharp passing game often ensued. We haven't seen that this year. I think Nolan, Kyle, Ryan, and Curry suffer because of that.

I also think that Duke still does not have a decent pass penetration game, and virtually no inside out play.

The most significant comment by the announcers in the Butler game was about Howard. Someone said something to the effect that the kid seems like he always thinks that he is about to score, that he is in excellent position to score, whenever he is in the half court offense. Howard is exceptional at creating a body angle, repositioning himself with a step or two, in anticipation of a likely pass to someone who will in turn be looking to get it inside and, if that materializes, he will be catching it with an edge to, or having already begun to, attack. I think that their center was also very good at that type of set up although not nearly as crisp and effective at finishing as Howard.

The reason for that alertness, aside from real talent, is that the entry pass to an inside player in a dangerous position is key to Butler's offense. Much of what they do is geared to creating that; there are two man games, three man games being played in which guys who are getting it in positions that they themselves can be dangerous but also have looks inside that are to be made.

Duke this year is much more laissez faire about its half court offense, but to me that makes that part of its game less interesting, and potentially less potent especially if Kyrie is not on his game. For example, I think that it could easily have cost Duke this last game but for Butler's foul trouble, especially Howard's, and also, to a lesser extent, the center's near concussion.

Mason played wonderfully, except as Duke77 pointed out on another thread with a lackluster approach to the high screen game at times, but even his strong play on the defensive end might not have been enough if Butler was able to pressure the glass off pass penetration throughout.

Newton_14
12-06-2010, 09:44 PM
I think that Duke has yet to find a half court offense not named Kyrie. I do not think that that is good.

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Good post with good points, but a couple of counter points. Duke actually has implemented a very good motion offense with a few really good set plays inside of that offense. K used that a lot in the 2 Exhibition games that were not televised and in one of the other early games.

For whatever reason, K chose not to use that offense in any of the Kansas City games, the Mich St game, and Butler game. He defaulted a lot to spreading the floor and using a lot of the high pick and roll with Kyrie. We did see a new wrinkle in the Kansas St game with our bigs coming out really high, with both wing players in the corners. We ran numerous back door cuts out of that set with Kyrie hitting Mason with passes darn near from half court. One resulted in the awesome alley-oop lob for a monster dunk.

It seemed in those select games, K game planned the offense and dumbed it down a bit to attack each team a certain way. My educated guess is, K did not feel we were ready yet to use the motion offense against the better teams, or he simply did not want to show his hand this early in the season, and felt we could win a different way.

I do expect he will go back to working on that motion offense (which also included some High-Low action with the 2 bigs) during these next four games, and include some of what we saw in the Oregon game to focus Kyle more.

I think once conference play begins, K will start using that offense as the guys will have had ample game and practice time to get it down. We would then likely see the spread with High Post screens for Kyrie and Nolan, late in games when we are milking clock and protecting leads.

So I am not overly worried about the offensive scheme's. Should we play Mich St again in March I would bet they see a Duke offense that looks nothing like they played against in December. I would expect the defense to be different as well.

K is a master at this, and while it frustrates us at times and keeps us guessing, it is kind of fun to watch it all play out as season's progress.