PDA

View Full Version : FB: Duke vs BC - Pre Game and In-Game Thread



loran16
11-07-2010, 07:03 PM
Okay Two wins in a row! Momentum is on our side here guys, now lets keep it rolling once again at Home.

A couple of things:

First, BC is a very different team than Navy or UVA in that they rely HEAVILY on their Defense to win games. They're last in the league in scoring offense, total offense (yards), Rushing Offense, and are third to last in Passing Offense, ahead of only Wake and Georgia Tech (and GT shouldn't count). Heck, they're basically dead last in kick and punt returns! (Maryland is slightly worse at kick returns, to be fair).

Thus: They will not score 48 points...even against our Defense.

(Still: Their RB, Montel Harris, has been VERY VERY impressive the last 3 of the last 4 games, and lit up Wake Forest. Given our poor Run D, this could hurt us).

But Defensively they're very very talented. They may be only 6th in the league in scoring Defense, but that Number is VERY VERY Deceptive: They're #1 in Rushing Defense (Yards), with opponent's averaging only 2.7 YPC. Opponents have quickly given up on the run against BC.

While their Total Passing Yards allowed per game may not look impressive, that's deceptive too. They're #1 in Passing Yards per Attempt, meaning that when opponent's do complete passes against them, they're for short yardage. Oh, and They're #1 in Interceptions with 17 on the season. Yeah that's a lot.

----------------------------------------
Thus, this game can be like one of two games from last year, when Duke played a team with meh offense and great defense. The First, @UVA, was a win by Duke. The Second, @UNC, was a loss when Duke's O couldn't get anything going. I know which one I'd rather this not be.

----

Strategy wise, really, on Offense, Duke should be ready and willing to abandon the run early if and when it's not working. I'm fine with bringing in Connette in for a series with the option play, but I'd be more willing to go with the pass from the option given that BC should be EXPECTING that play and are good against the run.

Renfree will need to be especially careful with his passes, and are receivers CANNOT TIP THE BALL UP IN THE AIR....the BC Team is too good on Pass D to be given any more opportunities for Picks. I wouldn't mind trying a strategy we did on NC State last year and going with quick short passes on first and 2nd downs in place of runs..

On D, I would stack the box against Harris and let their QB (Rettig) beat us. He's their weak point and they know it...he hasn't thrown more than 16 times either of the last two weeks. DO NOT LET THE RUN BEAT YOU.

--------------------

The opening line in Vegas was BC -3. I think we should be favored here, personally, as Renfree is getting into a roll.

I say: Duke 21, BC 14.

OZZIE4DUKE
11-07-2010, 07:13 PM
What's the over/under on student attendance this week? I'll take the over. I think the students will surprise everyone and show up, be entertained, and stay the entire game!

Bob Green
11-07-2010, 07:18 PM
Boston College has opened as a three point favorite:

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/

Olympic Fan
11-07-2010, 07:25 PM
While I agree that BC's defense is solid overall, it is much, MUCH better against the run than the pass. They are No. 1 in ther ACC against the run, but only 10th in pass efficiency defense. Only Wake and Duke have been weaker against the pass.

They are also in the odd position of having the No.1 rusher in the ACC and yet being the 12th and worst rushing offense overall. I don't think I've ever heard of that happening before.

Of course, we all know that Montel Harris, the ACC rushing leader originally committed to Duke before signing with BC.

OldPhiKap
11-07-2010, 07:25 PM
Boston College has opened as a three point favorite:

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/

UVA was a one-point favorite, and we won by six. So by the transitive property of betting odds, we should win this one by four.

I'd like to see the injury report, though, before flopping my pittance down.



We are undefeated in November this year -- I'd say we've gotta win this one!

loran16
11-07-2010, 07:38 PM
While I agree that BC's defense is solid overall, it is much, MUCH better against the run than the pass. They are No. 1 in ther ACC against the run, but only 10th in pass efficiency defense. Only Wake and Duke have been weaker against the pass.

They are also in the odd position of having the No.1 rusher in the ACC and yet being the 12th and worst rushing offense overall. I don't think I've ever heard of that happening before.

Of course, we all know that Montel Harris, the ACC rushing leader originally committed to Duke before signing with BC.

Like i said, that's a very deceptive stat. Look at the Yards Per Passing attempt, its best in the ACC. They take away the long pass, forcing you to throw short, while taking advantage of additional plays to get INTs.

Passing is definitely their weakness, but it's not a big weakness.

(Also, yeah the rushing thing is weird)

Bob Green
11-07-2010, 09:37 PM
Strategy wise, really, on Offense, Duke should be ready and willing to abandon the run early if and when it's not working.

I don't have a major disagreement with you, but I do have a minor disagreement in I do not desire to see us prematurely abandon the run. We are a pass oriented team, but forcing teams to defend the run is important. However, if in fact the running game isn't working, we will need Sean Renfree and the receivers to be ready to place the passing attack into overdrive.

The injury report report, or more accurately stated, the potential names which could be on the injury report have me worried. Austin Kelly, Conner Vernon, Brett Huffman and Tyree Watkins at receiver for starters. Josh Snead at running back. Johnny Williams, Walt Canty and Anthony Young-Wiseman in the secondary, plus others I'm missing or not aware of. All these guys were banged up against Virginia or were out from the week before.

loran16
11-07-2010, 09:50 PM
I don't have a major disagreement with you, but I do have a minor disagreement in I do not desire to see us prematurely abandon the run. We are a pass oriented team, but forcing teams to defend the run is important. However, if in fact the running game isn't working, we will need Sean Renfree and the receivers to be ready to place the passing attack into overdrive.


The Question is when is premature. To me, I'd go into the game with a strategy of run on first down 70% of the time (and when passing, play action pass here please!), and then running on 2nd-3rd downs only if it's a short yardage (4 or less to go) situation. I have much faith in the running game this year compared to previously. But this is a game where it is likely to be ineffective.




The injury report report, or more accurately stated, the potential names which could be on the injury report have me worried. Austin Kelly, Conner Vernon, Brett Huffman and Tyree Watkins at receiver for starters. Josh Snead at running back. Johnny Williams, Walt Canty and Anthony Young-Wiseman in the secondary, plus others I'm missing or not aware of. All these guys were banged up against Virginia or were out from the week before.

Did Vernon have a concussion? If so, he HAS to sit this week. I hate players playing with concussions. So stupid.

But yes, the injury report will be curious. (Though with the emergence of Helfet, I'm not sure how huge Huffman's loss really is except for depth purposes).

Bob Green
11-07-2010, 10:01 PM
Did Vernon have a concussion? If so, he HAS to sit this week. I hate players playing with concussions. So stupid.

I haven't seen any details on Vernon's injury but I agree with you 100 percent in regard to him sitting out the BC game if he was diagnosed with a concussion. I'm sure the staff will err on the side of caution when the health of any player is in question.

devildeac
11-07-2010, 11:21 PM
I don't have a major disagreement with you, but I do have a minor disagreement in I do not desire to see us prematurely abandon the run. We are a pass oriented team, but forcing teams to defend the run is important. However, if in fact the running game isn't working, we will need Sean Renfree and the receivers to be ready to place the passing attack into overdrive.

The injury report report, or more accurately stated, the potential names which could be on the injury report have me worried. Austin Kelly, Conner Vernon, Brett Huffman and Tyree Watkins at receiver for starters. Josh Snead at running back. Johnny Williams, Walt Canty and Anthony Young-Wiseman in the secondary, plus others I'm missing or not aware of. All these guys were banged up against Virginia or were out from the week before.

I'm hearing Kelly may be back and Canty played a bunch against uva, even after he left the field for a while, IIRC.

CameronBornAndBred
11-08-2010, 11:05 AM
This is going to be the North Going Zax versus the South Going Zax. Duke's offensive machine vs BC's defensive machine. The good news for Duke is that while BC is first in the ACC in defense, they are dead last in offense. If we keep them from scoring defensive points this should be a Duke victory. I'm guessing a low scoring game, Duke 17-BC 10.

1658

loran16
11-08-2010, 11:10 AM
I haven't seen any details on Vernon's injury but I agree with you 100 percent in regard to him sitting out the BC game if he was diagnosed with a concussion. I'm sure the staff will err on the side of caution when the health of any player is in question.





Morgan, Harding and Moore will be among several Blue Devils limited or out of practice as preparation begins for Boston College (4-5, 2-4).

Wide receiver Conner Vernon suffered a head injury against Virginia that knocked him out of the game. He will be held out of practice some this week, as will running back Josh Snead, tight end Brett Huffman, wide receiver Austin Kelly and guard Brandon Harper.


That's got to be a concussion.

Devil in the Blue Dress
11-08-2010, 11:36 AM
That's got to be a concussion.
I've heard some talk of a broken jaw. What I saw on the sidelines suggested checking for neurological signs related to possible concussion. Considering the potential long term after effects of concussions, I'm hoping for Conner's sake that's not what he's dealing with.

We'll see what the injury report says on Thursday.

RelativeWays
11-08-2010, 11:39 AM
Injuries will be a huge factor in this game, Duke is going to truly want this game, and it may come at the expense of the last two games of the season, but you do what you can.

If Cut really wanted to throw a wrinkle in the O gameplan, I'd make sure our wrs (especially Varner and Braxton), Scott, Snead if available and anyone with burn gets on the field. I would run some plays in the spread formation even though Duke is not a spread team typically. Duke can win this if they explode offensively on BC and make BC have to play out of their comfort zone.

CameronBornAndBred
11-09-2010, 10:12 AM
I posted this in the student's thread but thought it was worth repeating in here. Thanks to the Alabama fans tickets are literally $1 on stubhub. They have already paid the ticket office for those seats, so Duke isn't losing money if you buy them elsewhere. For the last two games lets turn the seats that were once red back to Duke blue!

http://www.stubhub.com/duke-football-tickets/duke-vs-boston-college-11-13-2010-933930/

Bob Green
11-09-2010, 10:38 AM
I wonder what would be a good over/under for how many passes Boston College attempts on Saturday? I say 14 pass attempts.

The thought process behind my question is Boston College averages 28 pass attempts per game, but in their last two games, both ACC victories, they attempted 16 and 17 passes so it appears they've made a decision to focus the offense behind Montel Harris running the ball. Harris is the league's leading rusher at 113.2 yards per game. Moreover, Harris gained 183 yards in BC's victory over Wake Forest and 142 yards in the win over Clemson. Factor in Duke's victory over Virginia where the Blue Devils intercepted three Cavaliers' passes and there doesn't appear to be any rationale for Boston College to throw the ball.

Or is there? Duke is last in the ACC in pass defense giving up an average of 257.6 yards per game. Navy stormed back on Duke in the fourth quarter by abandoning the ground game and airing out the football. So will the Eagles play to their new found strength and pound away on the ground? Or will they attack Duke's perceived weakness and take to the air? I believe the answer depends upon how the game unfolds. If Boston College scores early, I look for the Eagles to pound away on the ground and force Duke to prove they can stop the run. However, if Duke can jump out to an early lead like in the Navy and Virginia games, Boston College might be forced to pass the ball.

In my opinion, Duke's best opportunity to win the ball game is by jumping out to an early lead and forcing Boston College to pass the ball to catch up. If the Eagles are able to play a ball control offense by pounding away with Montel Harris it could spell trouble.

Thoughts? Who likes the under? And who takes the over?

scottcpa
11-10-2010, 12:07 PM
Does anyone know how long Josh Snead will be out of the lineup in football? What injury did he suffer? I thought he was our best running back before he was injured. He seems to hit the holes quicker and has better down field vision than the other backs.

loran16
11-10-2010, 12:16 PM
Does anyone know how long Josh Snead will be out of the lineup in football? What injury did he suffer? I thought he was our best running back before he was injured. He seems to hit the holes quicker and has better down field vision than the other backs.

Snead is listed as having a lower body injury. He was out immediately last week on the injury list, and was not even considering playing.

I wouldn't expect him this week, but the injury report is due out tomorrow I think.

ALSO MODS: Can we get this moved to the Duke v BC thread to consolidate our football threads? Thanks.

CameronBornAndBred
11-10-2010, 12:38 PM
Snead is listed as having a lower body injury. He was out immediately last week on the injury list, and was not even considering playing.

I wouldn't expect him this week, but the injury report is due out tomorrow I think.

ALSO MODS: Can we get this moved to the Duke v BC thread to consolidate our football threads? Thanks.
On Saturday morning as he walked to meet the team he had his arm in a sling, so it's strange that they list him with a lower body injury.

devildeac
11-10-2010, 12:39 PM
Snead is listed as having a lower body injury. He was out immediately last week on the injury list, and was not even considering playing.

I wouldn't expect him this week, but the injury report is due out tomorrow I think.

ALSO MODS: Can we get this moved to the Duke v BC thread to consolidate our football threads? Thanks.

His arm was in a sling when we greeted him at our tent last Saturday, so if it's a lower body injury, that would be in addition to the arm/shoulder injury he had, too. I'll let the FB team or someone else disclose any further info.

killerleft
11-10-2010, 01:30 PM
The Duke Women, with a great incoming freshman class, open their regular season after the football game, at 5:30. I hope a lot of us will stay for that one. Coach P's ladies will have a great chance in the next few years to put up a national championship banner in Cameron!

Edit: Football game is at 12:00, in case I confused anyone!

PumpkinFunk
11-10-2010, 01:52 PM
The Duke Women, with a great incoming freshman class, open their regular season after the football game, at 5:30. I hope a lot of us will stay for that one. Coach P's ladies will have a great chance in the next few years to put up a national championship banner in Cameron!

Tip-off for the women's game is actually 7 PM, not 5:30 PM. But yes, definitely come.

Re: the matchup vs. BC - Our run defense will make or break our chances. We have to force them to throw the ball. I think Montel Harris is a better matchup than the Virginia fullback (whose name is escaping me now) because he's smaller and easier to take down. If we can force them to throw and we can generally keep our foot on the pedal, unlike the 2nd half v. Navy, we have a shot to beat them.

CameronBornAndBred
11-10-2010, 02:05 PM
Tip-off for the women's game is actually 7 PM, not 5:30 PM. But yes, definitely come.

I wonder if they are going to run us out of our tents on Devil's Alley early because of the women's game. We usually don't drive out of the lot until about 5:30 or 6 for a noon kickoff.

pbc2
11-10-2010, 07:59 PM
I wonder what would be a good over/under for how many passes Boston College attempts on Saturday? I say 14 pass attempts.

The thought process behind my question is Boston College averages 28 pass attempts per game, but in their last two games, both ACC victories, they attempted 16 and 17 passes so it appears they've made a decision to focus the offense behind Montel Harris running the ball. Harris is the league's leading rusher at 113.2 yards per game. Moreover, Harris gained 183 yards in BC's victory over Wake Forest and 142 yards in the win over Clemson. Factor in Duke's victory over Virginia where the Blue Devils intercepted three Cavaliers' passes and there doesn't appear to be any rationale for Boston College to throw the ball.

Or is there? Duke is last in the ACC in pass defense giving up an average of 257.6 yards per game. Navy stormed back on Duke in the fourth quarter by abandoning the ground game and airing out the football. So will the Eagles play to their new found strength and pound away on the ground? Or will they attack Duke's perceived weakness and take to the air? I believe the answer depends upon how the game unfolds. If Boston College scores early, I look for the Eagles to pound away on the ground and force Duke to prove they can stop the run. However, if Duke can jump out to an early lead like in the Navy and Virginia games, Boston College might be forced to pass the ball.

In my opinion, Duke's best opportunity to win the ball game is by jumping out to an early lead and forcing Boston College to pass the ball to catch up. If the Eagles are able to play a ball control offense by pounding away with Montel Harris it could spell trouble.

Thoughts? Who likes the under? And who takes the over?

Bob, they faced a porous Wake Forest defense last week and only threw 16 passes, 2 of which were intercepted. I expect a pretty similar gameplan this week, which means that if Duke can put up some points, it could put them into an uncomfortable situation. Rettig is a good looking QB prospect, but is still just a true freshman and has only made a handful of starts, since Shinskie was the starter earlier in the season.

So in answer to your question, I take the over if Duke is able to execute offensively, but the under (and a long afternoon) if the BC defense has its way.

watzone
11-11-2010, 11:03 AM
Here, stat geek, Bob Green looks at the Blue Devils latest performance - http://bluedevilnation.net/2010/11/stats-update-duke-runs-over-virginia/

Devil in the Blue Dress
11-11-2010, 05:59 PM
How about the injury report for this week? What are the updates regarding who's well enough to play?

Acymetric
11-11-2010, 06:03 PM
How about the injury report for this week? What are the updates regarding who's well enough to play?

Just posted it here (http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?22978-Football-injury-report-for-11-13).

OG Dave Harding (head) – PROBABLE
NG Charlie Hatcher (upper body) – PROBABLE
OG Brian Moore (lower body) – PROBABLE
C Bryan Morgan (upper body) – PROBABLE

WR Austin Kelly (head) – QUESTIONABLE
TE Brandon King (upper body) – QUESTIONABLE
RB Josh Snead (upper body) – QUESTIONABLE
WR Conner Vernon (head) – QUESTIONABLE

OG Brandon Harper (lower body) – OUT
TE Brett Huffman (lower body) – OUT

S Quan Stevenson (lower body) – OUT FOR SEASON

CameronBornAndBred
11-12-2010, 08:22 AM
Here's a bit of good news for our banged up team...their team is banged up too.

http://bostonherald.com/sports/college/football/view.bg?articleid=1295774&srvc=sports&position=4


“If (Richman and White) aren’t available, we’ll have six guys, with (John) Wetzel being the free card,” coach Frank Spaziani said. “It becomes a patchwork outfit, more than it is already. It gets very dicey - and taking somebody’s redshirt is not out of the question.”

pbc2
11-12-2010, 08:28 AM
Here's a bit of good news for our banged up team...their team is banged up too.

http://bostonherald.com/sports/college/football/view.bg?articleid=1295774&srvc=sports&position=4

Their offensive line is the key to their offense. Harris is a quick, shifty back, but needs some holes to pick up yards. We have struggled to get consistent penetration into the backfield, but this would be a good time to start.

watzone
11-12-2010, 10:06 AM
Duke vs Boston College Game Preview - http://bluedevilnation.net/2010/11/bdns-boston-college-at-duke-football-preview/

CameronBornAndBred
11-12-2010, 01:04 PM
Here's a cool factoid.

Duke is 30-of-32 (.938) in the red zone this season with 19 touchdowns and 11 field goals. Duke’s red-zone conversion percentage of .938 leads the ACC and ranks third nationally. Duke is the only team in the ACC with a conversion percentage of over 90 percent and are a perfect 10-of-10 in the red zone in the past three games.
http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/18269/week-11-did-you-know

Bob Green
11-13-2010, 11:03 AM
It's just about an hour before kick-off so I thought I'd bump this thread back to the top in an effort to stimulate some Duke football discussion.

Today's game is very important, of course, as Jim Sumner pointed out in a different thread, in a 12 game season, every game is important. Duke needs to win out to become Bowl eligible. Obviously, that is a tall order, but it is not impossible. The team (and fans) have to take it one game at a time starting with today's contest with the Eagles.

Both team's are have some injury concerns with Boston College being thin on the offensive line. The Eagles have a very strong run defense so Duke will most likely need to air out the ball to score. Hopefully, we are able to establish a bit of a running game as well to keep BC guessing.

Let's Go Duke!

neuro
11-13-2010, 12:32 PM
Surprisingly quiet thread right now...

In any case, nice deep throw by Duke, but we really do need to finish better in the red zone to take advantage of the big plays.

The stands look so empty, at least on the BC side and endzone. That's too bad because it seems like such a great day to watch football in Durham, with a team that's on a win streak. Oh well, Duke will just have to keep winning and the fans will come.

D.C. Devil
11-13-2010, 01:21 PM
Frustrated that we keep wasting downs with connette. That's 3 drives it's killed.

Cockabeau
11-13-2010, 01:22 PM
totally not understanding the Connette thing...

dukeblue1206
11-13-2010, 01:26 PM
Frustrated that we keep wasting downs with connette. That's 3 drives it's killed.

Could not agree more. That package is not going to work against the BC run D. Has really taken away two good drives with chances for TD's. I hope that put that package on the shelf for the 2nd half. Duke defense has been pretty solid. A few big plays but overall not bad.

Duvall
11-13-2010, 01:27 PM
totally not understanding the Connette thing...

Why, because it hasn't worked since last week?

Bob Green
11-13-2010, 01:31 PM
BC's tough run defense is living up to its reputation as we have -11 yards rushing in the first half. The short pass is working so we need to stick with it. However, we cannot completely abandon the run.

dukeblue1206
11-13-2010, 01:45 PM
I thought it was a good call to try Connette on the 1st and goal from the 5 but once it lost those yards on the 1st down I think we should have went right back to Renfree to give him 2 chances to throw for a TD. I agree we have to keep trying to run but the up the middle run is getting a loss of yards almost every time. Toss sweeps to the outside and the short outside passes is what I would use. Either way I dont see Duke breaking any big runs. Just run it to keep them honest. Hopefully they prove me wrong!! Lets Go Duke!!

peloton
11-13-2010, 01:49 PM
C'mon Duke - let's get it going in the 2nd half...you're a much better team than that offensively. While we can't abandon the running game we should be much more effective in the red zone. I want to see us get a turnover on a Rettig INT.

peloton
11-13-2010, 01:55 PM
Awful defense by our secondary on that BC touchdown pass. The next few mins should be telling as to whether our guys really want to win this game or not. We showed heart and determination last week...let's see if we show it today. Oh, and of course there's always the matter of executing. Duke, you've got to make the plays...on both sides of the ball.

D.C. Devil
11-13-2010, 02:38 PM
Huge TO gets us back in after a completely inexcusable PI call on 3rd and 13!

Hopefully this will give our guys the boost they need to pull this one out.

peloton
11-13-2010, 02:38 PM
What a fumble return for a TD! Nice job making something happen, defense. Now, let's play some tough defense, get the ball back, and score a touchdown, Devils. Wow...what a turn of events.

Teton Jack
11-13-2010, 02:40 PM
Just started watching the game. Great to see the team is overcoming obstacles and not giving up.

peloton
11-13-2010, 02:43 PM
Duke, this is (once again) your victory to grab if you really want it. Huge tackle for a loss by Daniels - keep the pressure on them, Devils!

Faison1
11-13-2010, 03:08 PM
wish i could see what was going on....the play by play on espn.com says we are on the 4 with less than a minute.....Go Duke!!!!!!

Faison1
11-13-2010, 03:10 PM
Bummer

D.C. Devil
11-13-2010, 03:10 PM
This one is on Cut. If Warrick Dunn knows at halftime that Connette isn't going to work against BC, Cut's gotta be able to figure that out too.

Coach, we love you, but you've got to be more adaptable.

peloton
11-13-2010, 03:11 PM
Faison1, we just turned the ball over on downs - BC's just running out the last few seconds now.

Devil07
11-13-2010, 03:11 PM
Ugh! That game was there for the taking. Why they put Connette in for the 3rd and goal is absolutely beyond me. No one play loses a game, but man was that a terrible decision. You have two downs to win the game and you take our Renfree who has been playing well to go with Connette who hasn't had success all day? So frustrating. This one should have been a W...