10 Reasons Why the Duke Blue Devils Could Go Undefeated

[GODUKEGO]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/506350-10-reasons-why-the-duke-blue-devils-could-go-undefeated#page/1

This is an interesting article but the title !!! Remember however he does say could. Having to play at UNC, Kansas State in Kansas City, at NCSU, at VT, at Maryland, the ACC Tournament and the NCAA Tournament, this would be a far reached event. Love to see it but highly unlikely.


Read Justin Mc Teer's post at the end of the comments on the first page, "Here's my honest opinion. Kabongo to Duke".

[timmy c]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/506350-10-reasons-why-the-duke-blue-devils-could-go-undefeated#page/1

Remember however he does say could. Having to play at UNC, Kansas State in Kansas City, at NCSU, at VT, at Maryland, the ACC Tournament and the NCAA Tournament, this would be a far reached event. Love to see it but highly unlikely.




Ken Pomoroy - statistical genuis - noted yesterday, that no team has greater than a 1% chance of going undefeated this season.Can't get much more highly unlikely than that!

[OZZIE4DUKE]

I always predict we will go undefeated and win the National Championship. Last year I was half right. How did everyone else do with their predictions? http://www.crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/4.gif

[_TheFakeJWill_]

IMO Duke will have 2-3 loses. 1 outa conference and 1-2 in conference.

[wilko]

Rest assured Duke will lose whatever game I happen to go to....
It happened last yr, I went to the State game.

So to ensure that we lose as many games as possible.. I extend an open invitation to any UNC fan/support group/alumni/tutors to buy me tickets to any or all Duke games this yr.

Heck I'll give them a 3 yr window on the offer.

[moonpie23]

Rest assured Duke will lose whatever game I happen to go to....
It happened last yr, I went to the State game.

S.

and that was TOTALLY your fault as i remember...

[CEF1959]

There will almost surely be losses, but they'll all be upsets. And when I look at the schedule, I have a tough time figuring out where they might be.

Common wisdom (FWIW) is that a national championship team needs to have three future NBA players. As this article points out, Duke has at least 4, and all could go in the first round this coming draft. Depth, talent, experience, coaching. I wouldn't wanna play against this team.

[meowmix911]

Why even start one of these threads... It just contributes to all of the hubris and overoptimism that we don't really need... I'm more than happy to lose a few games, keep our humility, and then pound out the end of the season in style. The most gratifying season I've ever seen was the last one, and the least was the '99 team where I almost threw my TV out my apartment window. GO DUKE!

[UrinalCake]

Last year I think this same site put up a nearly identical article titled "why Kentucky will go undefeated." It was practically the same article, but with the team and player names swapped out. There was a matching article on why the wildcats won't go undefeated, as there is for duke this year. Not exactly groundbreaking stuff.

[ice-9]

There will almost surely be losses, but they'll all be upsets. And when I look at the schedule, I have a tough time figuring out where they might be.

Common wisdom (FWIW) is that a national championship team needs to have three future NBA players. As this article points out, Duke has at least 4, and all could go in the first round this coming draft. Depth, talent, experience, coaching. I wouldn't wanna play against this team.

Duke seems to lose at least once or at least play below potential in Decembers...certainly so for the last three seasons:
2010 - Loss to Wisconsin, December 2
2009 - Loss to Michigan, December 6
2008 - Loss to Pittsburgh, December 20

I think it's because semester end projects and exams are "real" and take away from the players' bball focus.

Not at all a bad thing, but if I have to predict a non-conference loss it would be in December. I want to specify mid-December, but this year it seems we don't have anyone imposing at that time: Bradley, Saint Louis, Elon. (Perhaps by design!)

So my best guess is Butler or Michigan State.

[4decadedukie]

I do not want to be a curmudgeon and I certainly would love for Duke to undefeated this year; however – and without doing an in-depth, game-by-game probability of win (Pw) analysis – let us make a few conservative assumptions:
a) Thirty regular season games
b) With a mean Pw of .92 (and that is undoubtedly charitable)
c) Results in a .082 probability of “running the table” (if the Google calculator is correct)
In addition, please remember some of our contests (such as UNC and Michigan State) will have a Pw far lower than .92 (although admittedly, a few may have an individual contest Pw >.92). Therefore, with the foregoing premises, there is an 8 percent chance of being undefeated during the regular season. This analysis is intended only to illustrate the point that being undefeated is mathematically quite unlikely, not to provide an exact quantitative estimate.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I do not want to be a curmudgeon and I certainly would love for Duke to undefeated this year; however – and without doing an in-depth, game-by-game probability of win (Pw) analysis – let us make a few conservative assumptions:
a) Thirty regular season games
b) With a mean Pw of .92 (and that is undoubtedly charitable)
c) Results in a .082 probability of “running the table” (if the Google calculator is correct)
In addition, please remember some of our contests (such as UNC and Michigan State) will have a Pw far lower than .92 (although admittedly, a few may have an individual contest Pw >.92). Therefore, with the foregoing premises, there is an 8 percent chance of being undefeated during the regular season. This analysis is intended only to illustrate the point that being undefeated is mathematically quite unlikely, not to provide an exact quantitative estimate.

With a Pw of .92 you get a 8% of going undefeated? That 8% seems really really really high. Wouldn't it be a lot lower?

[Deslok]

For all games(including 3 ACC tournament and 6 NCAA tournament games) Duke's chance of going undefeated. given a 92% chance of winning each individual game, is about 3.56%. To have an undefeated regular season, we have about a 7.54% chance of running the table.

And of course, the reality is a 92% win chance overestimates a fair number of our games. So the odds of us going undefeated are rather long. Unless of course you live in Ozzie's world, which was a really nice place to reside last March/April.

[COYS]

For all games(including 3 ACC tournament and 6 NCAA tournament games) Duke's chance of going undefeated. given a 92% chance of winning each individual game, is about 3.56%. To have an undefeated regular season, we have about a 7.54% chance of running the table.

And of course, the reality is a 92% win chance overestimates a fair number of our games. So the odds of us going undefeated are rather long. Unless of course you live in Ozzie's world, which was a really nice place to reside last March/April.

92% win chance is definitely a huge overestimation (as I know you know, already). Last year when Duke played a team as bad as UNC-CH at home in Cameron, we only had a 94% chance of winning. And you know most teams we play next year won't be that bad. ;)

[PADukeMom]

and that was TOTALLY your fault as i remember...

No, I take full responsibility for that loss. It was cold & snowy here in the northeast. I ran out of Bar-B-Que Fritos and I was too lazy to stop by the grocery store for a bag. Plus, since the game wasn't on TV I would have had to listen to the game on XM in 10 degree weather.
It was my fault, won't happen again. I have already stocked my pantry with Fritos.

[Kedsy]

Rest assured Duke will lose whatever game I happen to go to....
It happened last yr, I went to the State game.


and that was TOTALLY your fault as i remember...


No, I take full responsibility for that loss. It was cold & snowy here in the northeast. I ran out of Bar-B-Que Fritos and I was too lazy to stop by the grocery store for a bag. Plus, since the game wasn't on TV I would have had to listen to the game on XM in 10 degree weather.
It was my fault, won't happen again. I have already stocked my pantry with Fritos.

I watched that game. While I won't begrudge any of you partial responsibility, I think it was pretty much of a team effort.

[4decadedukie]

With a Pw of .92 you get a 8% of going undefeated? That 8% seems really really really high. Wouldn't it be a lot lower?

I thought so, too; however, the computer generated that value (I just checked the math again, with two hand-held calculators plus my desktop, with the same result from all three).

[thenameisbond]

I watched that game. While I won't begrudge any of you partial responsibility, I think it was pretty much of a team effort.

I feel so much better after reading this thread. All this time, I've been blaming myself for that loss. :p

[uh_no]

I thought so, too; however, the computer generated that value (I just checked the math again, with two hand-held calculators plus my desktop, with the same result from all three).

consider your 8.1% peer reviewed, and correct

the GOOGLE never lies

[oldnavy]

Undefeated? Too many things that we can't really control come into play. Injury, hot team and Duke having a bad night.... but I would bet that we have a really, really good year.

[sagegrouse]

I thought so, too; however, the computer generated that value (I just checked the math again, with two hand-held calculators plus my desktop, with the same result from all three).

Anyway, 4DD, the answer is the product of the win probabilities for all the games. If per assumption they are all the same, then the probability of an undefeated season is that single-game win probability raised to the 40th power (for the number of games).

For one or two-loss or n-loss seasons, permutations and combinations enter the fray, and things get much more complicated.

And for my next trick, Jason Evans will now give you probabilities on poker and bridge hands. ;)

sagegrouse
'Once an academic, always a pain in the rear'

[Pomona]

Since this has turned into a math quiz

A 90% free throw shooter is fouled shooting a 3 pointer and is awarded 3 free throws. How likely is he to make all 3? Miss all three? Scroll Down for answer?














The odds of making all 3 are .9 x.9 x .9 = 73%

Missing all 3: .1 x .1 x.1 = 0.1% He will make at least one shot 99.9% of the time

If it were 2 free throws insead of 3
Making Both : 81%
Missing Both: 1%


OK, you are complaining that was too easy. One more:
The weather forecast says 50% chance of rain on Saturday and 50% chance on Sunday.
What is the chance of rain this weekend? Please don't say 100%. If that is too easy, assume its a 3 day weekend. What is the chance of rain sometime during the 3 days?




2 Day weekend answer
rain 75% (3/4);

3 day weekend answer
rain 83% (5/6)

[Duke: A Dynasty]

They made another one. It is 10 reasons why Duke will not win it all this year though. I am not worried about most of these though. Injury is always a problem but it is not as bad this year considering our depth. And yes I loved Jon and he was good but THIS team is better with KI.


http://bleacherreport.com/articles/506534-duke-basketball-10-reasons-the-blue-devils-wont-go-back-to-back#page/1

[KatieGreen]

Im from Indy and I love Duke Basketball. I've been a a fan since Grant Hill was a star there. I dont get to watch as much college basketball as I used to...since I'm always working but I look forward to seeing Coach K and the boys upset the brackets in March. Most time when I do get to watch the games, I'm at some restaurant with my girl and a few of my friends....there roster looks pretty good I did a lil research on a few players and I think this will be a good season.


2010-2011 Duke Men's Basketball Roster

No.


Name
Pos. Ht. Wt. Yr.

Hometown/High School
30 Seth Curry G 6-2 180 So. Charlotte, NC (Charlotte Christian)
20 Andre Dawkins G 6-4 205 So. Chesapeake, VA (Atlantic Shores Christian)
15 Josh Hairston F 6-7 210 Fr. Fredericksburg, VA (Montrose Christian)
1 Kyrie Irving G 6-2 180 Fr. West Orange, NJ (St. Patrick's)
34 Ryan Kelly F 6-11 235 So. Raleigh, NC (Ravenscroft)
53 Casey Peters G 6-4 200 Sr. Red Bank, NJ (Red Bank Regional)
5 Mason Plumlee F 6-10 240 So. Warsaw, IN (Christ School [NC])
21 Miles Plumlee F 6-10 245 Jr. Warsaw, IN (Christ School [NC])
12 Kyle Singler F 6-8 230 Sr. Medford, OR (South Medford)
2 Nolan Smith G 6-2 185 Sr. Upper Marlboro, MD. (Oak Hill Academy [VA])
3 Tyler Thornton G 6-1 185 Fr. Washington, DC (Gonzaga)
52 Todd Zafirovski F 6-9 235 So. Lake Forest, IL (Lake Forest Academy


Its just my opinion that Duke does a really good job recruiting people with intergrity and athletic ability. That's a good combination to have on the floor and the bench. As it stand there 3rd in there division so we will see if this roster can get through the season and give the brackets a real shake up.

[Bob Green]

As it stand there 3rd in there division so we will see if this roster can get through the season and give the brackets a real shake up.

I'll start by saying welcome to the board, but I really don't understand what you are attempting to communicate with the quote above. Would you care to elaborate?

[KatieGreen]

Sorry about that Bob...Im new to this internet forum stuff...but all I was saying is Duke has a decent squad this year and they are going to do well. I'm still trying to get used to typing the way I talk. Thanks for the welcome message, your going to hear from me alot on here. I love Duke...well Bob I'm on my way to work...have a great day

[Duke: A Dynasty]

Sorry about that Bob...Im new to this internet forum stuff...but all I was saying is Duke has a decent squad this year and they are going to do well. I'm still trying to get used to typing the way I talk. Thanks for the welcome message, your going to hear from me alot on here. I love Duke...well Bob I'm on my way to work...have a great day

Yes that was and still is my main problem. Its a hard habbit to break; typing like you are to friends on aim or here on a message board. Glad to have you though!!

[snowdenscold]

OK, you are complaining that was too easy. One more:
The weather forecast says 50% chance of rain on Saturday and 50% chance on Sunday.
What is the chance of rain this weekend? Please don't say 100%. If that is too easy, assume its a 3 day weekend. What is the chance of rain sometime during the 3 days?

3 day weekend answer
rain 83% (5/6)

Shouldn't that be 87.5% (7/8) ?

How about this one: There's a king who has two children. (children here have a 50/50 chance of being born a boy or girl). One day you see a princess of this kingdom walk by. What's the probability the king has two daughters?



Back to basketball, for a 1-loss season, the probability should be P = G^(n-1) * (1-G) and for a 2-loss season, G^(n-2) * (1-G)^2, where G is the probability of winning any single game, and 'n' is the games in the season. We of course are assuming G is the same for every game, which we all know is not true in reality.

[Orange&BlackSheep]

consider your 8.1% peer reviewed, and correct

the GOOGLE never lies

Given the 92% assumption, the math is .92^40 (presuming 40 games). That is the 3.5% that Deslok calculated correctly.

Where y'all getting 8%?

P.S. and it is 7/8 not 5/6 to agree with Snowdens Cold ...

[4decadedukie]

Given the 92% assumption, the math is .92^40 (presuming 40 games). That is the 3.5% that Deslok calculated correctly.

Where y'all getting 8%?

P.S. and it is 7/8 not 5/6 to agree with Snowdens Cold ...


Please read the premises in my initial post (#11) and it will be extremely clear. This is a simple conditional probability analysis. The premises utilized included: (1) 30 games and (2) a mean Pw (probability of win) of .92. I certainly realized a 30 game regular season is not correct and I also recognized that each contest has a unique, applicable and individual Pw. However, I employed the foregoing approach (and these simplifying assumptions) ONLY to illustrate that -- with generous presumptions (such as a mean Pw of .92) -- the probability of Duke "running the table" is SMALL.

Further, .92^30 = .082 . . . specifically, post #11 is where the 8 percent emanates from (you might consider reading the original, applicable post BEFORE asking, "Where y'all getting 8%?").

[sagegrouse]

Back to basketball, for a 1-loss season, the probability should be P = G^(n-1) * (1-G) and for a 2-loss season, G^(n-2) * (1-G)^2, where G is the probability of winning any single game, and 'n' is the games in the season. We of course are assuming G is the same for every game, which we all know is not true in reality.

I think your formulae are not correct. Seasons with one or more losses are where combinations and permutations come into play. The probability of a single sequence of results with one loss, say WWWWWLWWWWW... is what you calculated. But, in a 40-game season, there are 40 such sequences so your answer has to be multiplied by 40. Similarly, the number of ways two losses can be arranged in a season is 40*39/2 = 780. In contrast, there is only one sequence of 40 wins in a 40-win season.

In general, the number of combinations is N!/(L!*(N-L)!), where N is the number of games and L the number of losses.

At any rate, using this approach, I calculated all the probabilities of all possible win-loss combinations in a 40-game season, and the probabilities added to 1.000.

Here are the probabilities of selected W-L records when the probability of a win in each game is 0.92, as 4DD assumed.



W L Prob.
40 0 0.036
39 1 0.124
38 2 0.210
37 3 0.231
36 4 0.186
35 5 0.116
34 6 0.059
33 7 0.025
32 8 0.009
31 9 0.003
30 10 0.001


If the probability of winning every game is 0.92, then the most likely record is 37-3. (No, I didn't model the one-and-done nature of the ACCs and NCAAs.) And the probabilities for records worse than 30-10 become "vanishingly small." (I had a prof once who liked to say things like that.)

sagegrouse
'I hope nobody thinks I do this for a living -- I'd be starving to death'

[OldPhiKap]

82.7% of statistics are simply made up.

Trust me, it's true.

[4decadedukie]

82.7% of statistics are simply made up.

Trust me, it's true.

Great way to wake up for a 4+ hour drive to Duke - laughing out loud at 0430 - very nicely done.

[OldPhiKap]

Great way to wake up for a 4+ hour drive to Duke - laughing out loud at 0430 - very nicely done.

I hope you're arriving safely just about now. OPK

[MChambers]

The weather forecast says 50% chance of rain on Saturday and 50% chance on Sunday.
What is the chance of rain this weekend? Please don't say 100%. If that is too easy, assume its a 3 day weekend. What is the chance of rain sometime during the 3 days?

2 Day weekend answer
rain 75% (3/4);

3 day weekend answer
rain 83% (5/6)
See, this one bugs me, because I never know what they mean when they predict x% on Saturday and y% on Sunday. Are the two events unrelated/independent? Probably not. Maybe they mean that it's almost certain we'll get rain this weekend, but they don't know when it will arrive. Or maybe it really is two coin flips, so your answers are right.

Same thing on free throw shooting. If a 90% shooter misses the first, is his next shot really a 90% probability. Why did he miss? Maybe he got shook up on the foul, in which case he's less than a 90% shooter on the second. Or maybe he lost his concentration, which means that he'll fix it on the next (Scheyer would have, I think).

Stay dry everyone!

[Pomona]

there are 8 possiblilites and each is equally likely @12.5%. 7 of the eight have some rain. Only 1 has no rain (option 8). Saturday/Sunday/Monday

option 1
rain
rain
rain

option2
rain
rain
no rain

option 3
rain
no rain
rain

option 4
no rain
rain
rain

option 5
no rain
no rain
rain

option 6
no rain
rain
no rain

option 7
rain
no rain
no rain

option 8
no rain
no rain
no rain


class dismissed 87.5% chance of rain.

[OldPhiKap]

there are 8 possiblilites and each is equally likely @12.5%. 7 of the eight have some rain. Only 1 has no rain (option 8). Saturday/Sunday/Monday

option 1
rain
rain
rain

option2
rain
rain
no rain

option 3
rain
no rain
rain

option 4
no rain
rain
rain

option 5
no rain
no rain
rain

option 6
no rain
rain
no rain

option 7
rain
no rain
no rain

option 8
no rain
no rain
no rain


class dismissed 87.5% chance of rain.

Sorry, the odds of rain are 50%. Either it will, or it won't.

[Indoor66]

I always thought they were 0% or 100% - you are either getting wet or you are not!

[georg004]

The thread is pure, wild speculation. . . but fun. No Duke fan in his or her rational mind remotely expects an undefeated season. Can't happen. But no Duke fan, in his or her fantasy mind, hasn't contemplated the possibility.

I love the nerdy, math-based attempts to calculate the possibility. Flawed but fun. I'm doing it too, and my calculations are equally flawed and equally fun.

Here's my thoughts

there are 2 seasons: the regular season and the playoffs (ACC+NCAA).
They are completely different
So when calculating the likelihood of an undefeated season, focus first and only on the regular season. Can we go 30-0, or whatever the number is?
Don't assume a mean likelihood. For each and every game, there is a specific (wild guess) likelihood that we will win. For MSU, my wild guess is 75% (great opponent, but playing in Cameron). For the 2nd UNC game, my wild guess is 60%. For K-state, I'm guessing 70%. So it goes.
For the regular season, I calculate 8% chance of undefeated (plus or minus 15 percent). Point is: very unlikely, but not out the reasonable realm of possibility
If an undefeated regular season happens, a whole new season begins. And we can calculate the likelihood of going 9-0 then

[JohnGalt]

The thread is pure, wild speculation. . . but fun. No Duke fan in his or her rational mind remotely expects an undefeated season. Can't happen. But no Duke fan, in his or her fantasy mind, hasn't contemplated the possibility.

I love the nerdy, math-based attempts to calculate the possibility. Flawed but fun. I'm doing it too, and my calculations are equally flawed and equally fun.

Here's my thoughts

there are 2 seasons: the regular season and the playoffs (ACC+NCAA).
They are completely different
So when calculating the likelihood of an undefeated season, focus first and only on the regular season. Can we go 30-0, or whatever the number is?
Don't assume a mean likelihood. For each and every game, there is a specific (wild guess) likelihood that we will win. For MSU, my wild guess is 75% (great opponent, but playing in Cameron). For the 2nd UNC game, my wild guess is 60%. For K-state, I'm guessing 70%. So it goes.
For the regular season, I calculate 8% chance of undefeated (plus or minus 15 percent). Point is: very unlikely, but not out the reasonable realm of possibility
If an undefeated regular season happens, a whole new season begins. And we can calculate the likelihood of going 9-0 then


So let me see if I follow:

An undefeated season "can't happen" but, nonetheless, Duke still manages anywhere from a 23% to -7% chance of going without losing...?

Man, K really is God.

[georg004]

So let me see if I follow:

An undefeated season "can't happen" but, nonetheless, Duke still manages anywhere from a 23% to -7% chance of going without losing...?

Man, K really is God.

The plus or minus 15 was a joke :) - to make clear that in the end these are all just wild guesses.

[MChambers]

John Gasaway, of the Basketball Prospectus website and ESPN, boldly predicts a few upsets in the early season, including Marquette over Duke. Of course, he hedges his prediction by calling it a "real reach".

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1263

[Tappan Zee Devil]

I think your formulae are not correct. Seasons with one or more losses are where combinations and permutations come into play. The probability of a single sequence of results with one loss, say WWWWWLWWWWW... is what you calculated. But, in a 40-game season, there are 40 such sequences so your answer has to be multiplied by 40. Similarly, the number of ways two losses can be arranged in a season is 40*39/2 = 780. In contrast, there is only one sequence of 40 wins in a 40-win season.

In general, the number of combinations is N!/(L!*(N-L)!), where N is the number of games and L the number of losses.

At any rate, using this approach, I calculated all the probabilities of all possible win-loss combinations in a 40-game season, and the probabilities added to 1.000.

Here are the probabilities of selected W-L records when the probability of a win in each game is 0.92, as 4DD assumed.



W L Prob.
40 0 0.036
39 1 0.124
38 2 0.210
37 3 0.231
36 4 0.186
35 5 0.116
34 6 0.059
33 7 0.025
32 8 0.009
31 9 0.003
30 10 0.001


If the probability of winning every game is 0.92, then the most likely record is 37-3. (No, I didn't model the one-and-done nature of the ACCs and NCAAs.) And the probabilities for records worse than 30-10 become "vanishingly small." (I had a prof once who liked to say things like that.)

sagegrouse
'I hope nobody thinks I do this for a living -- I'd be starving to death'


Well - about 40 years ago - early on in my Ph.D research, I figured out that it was easy to generate statistics to support what ever position that you want to support - great discovery

and 39.9 years ago, my professor who was a much better mathematician than me and had 30 years more experience, very pointedly convinced me that was a VERY bad idea both from a mathematical and realistic point of view.

Let's let it play out and see what happens. That is the fun/angst/excitement of the whole thing - we really don't know what will happen

[snowdenscold]

I think your formulae are not correct. Seasons with one or more losses are where combinations and permutations come into play. The probability of a single sequence of results with one loss, say WWWWWLWWWWW... is what you calculated. But, in a 40-game season, there are 40 such sequences so your answer has to be multiplied by 40. Similarly, the number of ways two losses can be arranged in a season is 40*39/2 = 780. In contrast, there is only one sequence of 40 wins in a 40-win season.

In general, the number of combinations is N!/(L!*(N-L)!), where N is the number of games and L the number of losses.
'
Sorry for resurrecting - just remembered and found this.

You're right - I wasn't thinking. It should be P = n * G^(n-1) * (1-G) for a 1-loss and n(n-1)/2 * G^(n-2) * (1-G)^2 for a 2-loss. Of course those two factors I added in front indeed come out to your formula for L = 1 and 2.

So then the general formula (I think) is P = [n!/(L!*(n-L)!)] * G^(n-L) * (1-G)^L
where n = # of games, L = # of losses, G = probability of winning each game (assumed constant, but never will be in real life).

If we really wanted to model well, we'd say n1 games have P1 chance to win, n2 have P2 chance etc. and find the blended probabilities.

[UrinalCake]

During the broadcast yesterday the topic of Duke going undefeated came up, and was quickly discounted as something that simply won't happen in today's game. While I tend to agree, I do think that going undefeated in conference is a realistic possibility. We did it in 1999 with another stacked team, so it can be done. In 1998 and 2000 we went 15-1. And so far, it's looking like the rest of the ACC is pretty weak.

Any thoughts on who in conference is the most likely to beat us? The consensus seems to be that Virginia Tech is the #2 team, but I'm not seeing it. I think we can concentrate on containing Delaney, and the rest of the team just doesn't scare me. I think NC State will be a tough opponent for us. They match up well and won't be at all intimidated by us after destroying us last year. And the first time we play them could be a "trap" game, as it precedes the UNC game.

[thenameisbond]

I could see us dropping an away game to FSU, MD or State. I think we beat VT and sweep UNC.

[Kedsy]

During the broadcast yesterday the topic of Duke going undefeated came up, and was quickly discounted as something that simply won't happen in today's game. While I tend to agree, I do think that going undefeated in conference is a realistic possibility. We did it in 1999 with another stacked team, so it can be done. In 1998 and 2000 we went 15-1. And so far, it's looking like the rest of the ACC is pretty weak.

Any thoughts on who in conference is the most likely to beat us? The consensus seems to be that Virginia Tech is the #2 team, but I'm not seeing it. I think we can concentrate on containing Delaney, and the rest of the team just doesn't scare me. I think NC State will be a tough opponent for us. They match up well and won't be at all intimidated by us after destroying us last year. And the first time we play them could be a "trap" game, as it precedes the UNC game.

Besides the obvious possibilities (@NC State, UNC, @UNC, @Maryland, @Va Tech), I'd be wary of @Florida State and @Miami. We should win most/all of those games, but you never know. We've stumbled in the State of Florida before.

[COYS]

Besides the obvious possibilities (@NC State, UNC, @UNC, @Maryland, @Va Tech), I'd be wary of @Florida State and @Miami. We should win most/all of those games, but you never know. We've stumbled in the State of Florida before.

Florida State's got the defensive length to give us problems. What happens if the three isn't falling and FSU's defense is able to limit Nolan and Kyrie in the lane? Durand Scott has had success against Duke in the past and is capable of playing out of his mind and willing is team to victory. Add in the long trip down to Miami and I completely agree that @Miami is a dangerous game. I love this team, but we've got a long, tough road ahead. Luckily, it should also be a really, really fun road.

[sagegrouse]

Besides the obvious possibilities (@NC State, UNC, @UNC, @Maryland, @Va Tech), I'd be wary of @Florida State and @Miami. We should win most/all of those games, but you never know. We've stumbled in the State of Florida before.

Over the past ten years Duke has lost 40% or more of away games at five different ACC schools on this year's away schedule: Wake (5 of 7), Maryland (5 of 10), UNC (4 of 10), State (3 of 7), and FSU (3 of 7). Moreover, our best conference record was 14-2 with one home and one away loss with three losses five other years (not bad, eh?). Overall: 11 home ACC losses and 29 away losses out of 160 games.

Wake doesn't look too tough this year, but UNC, Maryland, VT, and State will be challenges. Moreover, UNC and Md have had success at CIS.

sagegrouse
'No, I didn't count the total number of away games; I modeled them: round-robin for 2001 through 2004 and 50% for the following years except Md and UNC'

''My paper notes from my research are as messy as a second grader's, so no guarantee I got it right'

[tylervinyard]

I really do hope the ACC turns out to be stronger than they're currently showing which could lead to some Duke losses. These tough games in Nov/Dec might be forgotten if we're not challenged in January, February and March. I really don't want us going into the tourney unchallenged. Could be '91 Vegas all over again. Us being unbeatable Vegas, of course. NC is so much more important than an undefeated regular season.

[PADukeMom]

MSU, FSU & @ Maryland worry me. I always worry about playing in Chapel Hill.

[jimsumner]

Florida State's got the defensive length to give us problems. What happens if the three isn't falling and FSU's defense is able to limit Nolan and Kyrie in the lane? Durand Scott has had success against Duke in the past and is capable of playing out of his mind and willing is team to victory. Add in the long trip down to Miami and I completely agree that @Miami is a dangerous game. I love this team, but we've got a long, tough road ahead. Luckily, it should also be a really, really fun road.

Durand Scott has indeed had success against Duke in the past. But unless something really unexpected happens over the semester break, he's not going to be playing for Florida State.

[arnie]

I really do hope the ACC turns out to be stronger than they're currently showing which could lead to some Duke losses. These tough games in Nov/Dec might be forgotten if we're not challenged in January, February and March. I really don't want us going into the tourney unchallenged. Could be '91 Vegas all over again. Us being unbeatable Vegas, of course. NC is so much more important than an undefeated regular season.

Yes and as bad as the ACC appears, this year we might be considered the Boise State of college basketball. That's why I'm glad we're playing tough teams early - although Tysiac with the N&O says we never play OOC teams on their home courts, plus we get all the calls anyway.

[Kedsy]

Durand Scott has indeed had success against Duke in the past. But unless something really unexpected happens over the semester break, he's not going to be playing for Florida State.

Jim, I'm pretty sure the Durand Scott part of the earlier post was meant to be related to the following sentence regarding the long trip to Miami.

[theAlaskanBear]

Jim, I'm pretty sure the Durand Scott part of the earlier post was meant to be related to the following sentence regarding the long trip to Miami.

@FSU, @MIA, @MD, @NCST, @VT. Those are the conference games that I fear the most (if we play @VT?). I can't see us going undefeated -- even the best teams lose games. MSU is going to be a tough game. And of course, chances are we lose in the NCAA tourney, too.

[Kedsy]

@FSU, @MIA, @MD, @NCST, @VT. Those are the conference games that I fear the most (if we play @VT?). I can't see us going undefeated -- even the best teams lose games. MSU is going to be a tough game. And of course, chances are we lose in the NCAA tourney, too.

Yes, the Va Tech game is in Blacksburg this year.

[mus074]

how many this team loses. I just want to win the last one.

[hq2]

I really do hope the ACC turns out to be stronger than they're currently showing which could lead to some Duke losses. These tough games in Nov/Dec might be forgotten if we're not challenged in January, February and March. I really don't want us going into the tourney unchallenged. Could be '91 Vegas all over again. Us being unbeatable Vegas, of course.

Totally agree. More like '99, when we were (supposedly) unbeatable and the conference was weak. Hate to see the same outcome this time. On the other hand, I don't see anyone out there like Uconn who is obviously in our league (remember, at the championship game Uconn came in 34-2, and was #1 nearly half the year.) However, someone else out there may step up between now and April. Who knows.

[Kedsy]

Totally agree. More like '99, when we were (supposedly) unbeatable and the conference was weak. Hate to see the same outcome this time. On the other hand, I don't see anyone out there like Uconn who is obviously in our league (remember, at the championship game Uconn came in 34-2, and was #1 nearly half the year.) However, someone else out there may step up between now and April. Who knows.

Actually, in 1998-99 UConn was #1 for more than half the year (and thus more than we were) -- they were #1 for 10 weeks and we were #1 for 9. I don't understand why people believe it was such a huge upset when they won.

That aside, I agree with you that there doesn't seem to be another team that is even (or close to even) with us at this point, although possibly Ohio State or Kansas could get there by the end of the season.

[Newton_14]

Yes and as bad as the ACC appears, this year we might be considered the Boise State of college basketball. That's why I'm glad we're playing tough teams early - although Tysiac with the N&O says we never play OOC teams on their home courts, plus we get all the calls anyway.

So, I dreamed that we played all those Michigan games on their court huh? Tysiac is an idiot who needs to educate himself on our past history. Wisconsin at their place last year. Plus, St Johns, GaTown, Temple etc. So it is our fault those team's have gym's so small they play their home games at Pro Arena's. But I digress. People will always believe what they want to believe, but for a journalist that is just lazy and lame.

P.S. This team is not going undefeated. Wish folks would put that to bed and stop bringing it up. As talented as we are, we are still a very young team, with a brand new offensive and defensive scheme being learned and implemented. The ACC conference games will bring a couple of losses and court rushings.

[COYS]

Jim, I'm pretty sure the Durand Scott part of the earlier post was meant to be related to the following sentence regarding the long trip to Miami.

Ah yes. Thanks, Kedsy, for reading through my poorly worded post. Mr. Sumner, apologies for the confusion. I will have to write a strongly worded letter to my editor. How could he let that post go to press? ;)

But yes, Durand Scott, who plays basketball for the Hurricanes of the University of Miami, is a player that could potentially make life tough for Duke when we travel to Miami.