NBA transitive property

[JasonEvans]

Tuesday night
Celtics 88
Heat 80

Wednesday night
Celtics 87
Cavs 95

Yup, exactly as I figured. The Cavs minus Lebron are waay better than the Heat with him. Did anyone doubt this?

--Jason "I know it won't last, but the city of Cleveland has got to be enjoying the standings tonight" Evans

[jipops]

This is what makes basketball such a wonderful sport. Who would have thought this scenario would actually occur?

Cavs fans have to be loving this.

[CameronBornAndBred]

How many teams in sports history have knocked down Goliath to be beaten up by David the next game? We've seen it happen to our own Blue Devils, and seen them do it to others. The big games get you pumped..it's all the other boring ones you gotta be ready for.

[Bob Green]

This related article is funny:

http://www.sportsgrid.com/media/bar-loses-over-4100-to-customers-because-the-heat-lost/

[Duke: A Dynasty]

Tuesday night
Celtics 88
Heat 80

Wednesday night
Celtics 87
Cavs 95

Yup, exactly as I figured. The Cavs minus Lebron are waay better than the Heat with him. Did anyone doubt this?

--Jason "I know it won't last, but the city of Cleveland has got to be enjoying the standings tonight" Evans

Cavs will miss the playoffs and the heat will be a top 3 seed this year. Next 2 to 9 years the Heat will destroy.

[DevilHorns]

Tuesday night
Celtics 88
Heat 80

Wednesday night
Celtics 87
Cavs 95

Yup, exactly as I figured. The Cavs minus Lebron are waay better than the Heat with him. Did anyone doubt this?

--Jason "I know it won't last, but the city of Cleveland has got to be enjoying the standings tonight" Evans

My Dear Jason Evans,

This may be a bit premature for this as we are talking about a single win... but have you ever heard of the Ewing Theory?

http://proxy.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?id=1193711


Eventually, we decided that two crucial elements needed to be in place for any situation to qualify for "Ewing" status:

1. A star athlete receives an inordinate amount of media attention and fan interest, and yet his teams never win anything substantial with him (other than maybe some early-round playoff series).

2. That same athlete leaves his team (either by injury, trade, graduation, free agency or retirement) -- and both the media and fans immediately write off the team for the following season.

When those elements collide, you have the Ewing Theory.

Some notable examples include:


1. Utah Utes, 1998: Keith Van Horn's ballyhooed college career ends without Utah ever making a Final Four. Nine months later, the Utes shock everyone by making the NCAA title game.

2. Tennessee Volunteers, 1998: Even more ballyhooed than Van Horn during his college career, Peyton Manning leaves UT without either winning a national title or beating Florida -- and the Vols win the national title nine months later.

3. Seattle Mariners, 2000: After allegedly "giving up on the season" by dealing their marquee player (Junior Griffey) eight months after dealing their marquee pitcher (the Big Unit), the Mariners cruise to an AL wild-card berth and shock the White Sox in the first round.

4. Boston Red Sox, 1999: After Mo Vaughn signs with the Angels for $80 million, nobody believes that the Sox have enough hitting to finish above .500. Wrong. They roll off 94 victories, capture the wild-card berth and win their first playoff series in 13 years (beating Cleveland in five games).

5. Miami Dolphins, 2000: Dan Marino retires and everyone prepares for a rebuilding year in Miami; the Fins end up advancing to the second round of the playoffs with Jay Fiedler. Jay Fiedler!

Eric Lindros

The Flyers proved the Ewing Theory in action last year when they thrived without Eric Lindros -- and then lost when he returned.
6. Philadelphia Flyers, 2000: After losing superstar Eric Lindros to a serious concussion in mid-March, the Flyers hold on for first place in the conference and defeat Buffalo and Pittsburgh in the playoffs. In the conference semis, the Flyers take a 3-1 lead when rumors swirl about a Lindros return. Stunned, the Flyers drop Game 5 at home, as Dave and I send frantic e-mails back and forth. Lindros finally returns in Game 6, and the Flyers squander that one, too; now people are blaming Lindros for killing Philly's momentum. In the climactic Game 7, the Flyers get expunged as Lindros gets knocked out with another concussion midway through the game. Season over.

7. Boston Red Sox & Seattle Mariners, 2001 (ongoing): Written off after Nomar Garciaparra's wrist injury and Alex Rodriguez's departure, both teams cruise to the top of their respective divisions during the first five weeks of the season.

8. University of Kentucky, 1998: One year after the departures of Rick Pitino, Derek Anderson and Ron Mercer, the Wildcats never miss a beat with new coach Tubby Smith and went on to beat Utah to win another NCAA title.

9. St. Louis Rams, 1999: Starting QB Trent Green tears an ACL during the preseason. Given up for dead, the Rams rally behind former Arena League football star Kurt Warner and win the Super Bowl, which might be the most unbelievable thing that ever happened..

10. Detroit Lions, 1999: Stunned by Barry Sanders' retirement in August, everyone gives up on the Lions for the '99 season. The Lions respond by sneaking into the NFC playoffs.

[BD80]

Tuesday night
Celtics 88
Heat 80

Wednesday night
Celtics 87
Cavs 95

Yup, exactly as I figured. The Cavs minus Lebron are waay better than the Heat with him. Did anyone doubt this?

--Jason "I know it won't last, but the city of Cleveland has got to be enjoying the standings tonight" Evans

What amuses me is how badly LeBron overvalued his appeal. "The decision" was a testiment to his ego. I hope he never recovers from the fallout.

I'll root for the Celtics, the Bulls or the Lakers over the Heat. And as a Pistons fan, that's hard to do.

[JasonEvans]

Just so we are clear, Devilhorns and Dynasty... ya'll know I was kidding, right? I don't actually think the Cavs will be good this year nor do I expect the Heat to lose more than maybe 15 or so games.

-Jason

[noyac]

I am from the cleveland area and people up here are nuts about this win. The average fan does not realize that in the NBA winning back to back (home then away) nights is not easy for any team, no matter who they are playing.

I think the Cavs will be right around .500 and will be real close to making the playoffs.

[jipops]

I am from the cleveland area and people up here are nuts about this win. The average fan does not realize that in the NBA winning back to back (home then away) nights is not easy for any team, no matter who they are playing.

I think the Cavs will be right around .500 and will be real close to making the playoffs.

Great point. Playing the back-end of a back-to-back on the road after a big home win is almost a guaranteed loss.

[COYS]

I think the Cavs will be right around .500 and will be real close to making the playoffs.

Not that we can be absolutely sure this early in the season, but I'd be shocked if they did this well. The roster is full of either aging talent (Jamison, Parker, Moon) or unproven talent (Hickson). Gibson and Sessions are still relatively young players who just might be able to take their game up a notch or so, but I seriously doubt they can carry a team. Even if they improve, I don't think they can compete with some of the other young points in the east. I think Hickson has a lot of potential, but he's definitely not someone the team can lean on at this point. Varajao is a valuable player to be sure, but he's definitely a glue guy/defensive specialist who is ideal for a team in need of role players instead of stars. The Cavs need a star. Unless Hickson is actually better than anyone dreamed, I don't see how the Cavs have enough talent to best some of the up and coming teams in the east for a playoff spot.

[hurleyfor3]

Tuesday night
Celtics 88
Heat 80

Wednesday night
Celtics 87
Cavs 95

Yup, exactly as I figured. The Cavs minus Lebron are waay better than the Heat with him.

16 points better, in fact.

The mystery of the Transitive Property of Basketball is why you never hear it applied to other sports.

[toooskies]

Not that we can be absolutely sure this early in the season, but I'd be shocked if they did this well. The roster is full of either aging talent (Jamison, Parker, Moon) or unproven talent (Hickson).

I think you overestimate how old Parker/Moon are. Jamison is the only one truly on the downside of his career, and given that he didn't start the first game, I think everyone believes he's a little over the hill. But the thing about the Cavs is, pretty much everyone else is very close to their prime: Hickson is approaching it, Varejao/Williams are at it, and a lot of the supporting cast is very close to it. When you have a full NBA roster with a lot of experience, so no one is playing outside their limits, you can see a lot of victories just like they beat the Celtics. They aren't blowing anyone off the court, but 40 games isn't an impossibility. No one player turns a team from a 65-win team to a 25-win team. A healthy Wade in his prime only added about 20 wins to the Heat pre-Lebron, and they're similar tiers of player.

And also-- the Heat "dynasty" doesn't start until someone learns how to play interior defense (Bosh is terrible, Ilgauskas is over the hill, Haslem is small), until all the stars learn how to play off the ball, and everyone stays healthy the entire season when other teams are looking to take them out.

[brevity]

I don't actually think the Cavs will be good this year nor do I expect the Heat to lose more than maybe 15 or so games.

This seems as good a place as any to call for a Miami Heat 2010-2011 record prediction thread.

Once the roster was put together -- before Mike Miller's injury -- I saw them as a 60-65 win team, and I was a little surprised that people thought 73 was already in reach. I'm on board with that for future seasons, barring known injuries, but this year? No way.

Bruce Bowen, ever the contrarian (Exhibit A: bow tie), said on Mike & Mike that the Heat will win around 50 games.

What do you think? Do we need a poll? Under 50, 50-54, 55-59, 60-64, 65-69, 70 or more?