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NYC Duke Fan
10-11-2010, 03:34 AM
In a few of the pre-season college basketball magazines Duke, Michigan State and Purdue are always mentioned as the top 3 teams at least pre-season.

Can there someone with knowledge out there compare Michigan State and Purdue to Duke?

Where might they be better, where is Duke better, what could be the problem when , ( I know we play Mich St. during the year), we would play them ?

Michigan State is one of the few teams that is really, really good AND has a coach who is almost the eqivalent of Coach K in Tom Izzo.

DukieBoy
10-11-2010, 09:59 AM
I know a little about both

Purdue - Last year, they relied a lot on their own Big 3 of Jujuan Johnson, Robbie Hummell, and E'Twaun Moore. They likely would have taken our #1 seed if Hummell hadn't torn his ACL. Hummell is definitely the leader of this team. He's a lot like Singler in that he can score down low and score outside. Johnson might be the best big man in the nation this year. He's a big, strong, athletic center that can score with his back to the basket.

Their problem is they don't have much production at all outside of the Big 3. Last year, they had Chris Kramer, who was their version of Lance Thomas only a guard, who contributed. Now he's gone and they don't have production outside of those three. I think that will hurt them in big games this year.

Michigan State - I don't know as much about Michigan State, but I know they're going to rely a lot on Kalin Lucas, their senior guard who will likely be a preseason 1st team AA. Durrell Summers and Draymond Green, both forwards, are going to be looked upon for some scoring. I don't think this team is as deep as Duke and that will likely cause them issues late in the season with conditioning.

Hope this helps

Olympic Fan
10-11-2010, 10:48 AM
Not a lot to add, except Purdue and Michigan State both have key players trying to come back from serious injuries

Hummell is, of course, returning from ACL surgery. I think the prognosis is very good -- doctors have made a lot of progress with this injury in recent years. We're seeing it with Sean Renfree on our football team ... normal recovery is now something like six months and most victims regain 95-99 percent of their function.

I think Hummel, whose game doesn't depend on his raw athleticism anyway, will be fine.

Michigan State's problem is Kalin Lucas. Their best player suffered a ruptured achilles tendon late last season. Again, I don't know the particulars, but this is a far more series injury than an ACL. Recovery time is about the same, but most victims don't even approach their former function. We've seen it with Christian Laettner and Elton Brand -- the guys who were ploaying at an all-star level before the ruptured achilles and haven't been close to it since.

I think the Lucas injury could be very serious and could have long-term impact. In addition, Korie Lucious, the backup who took Lucas' place during their Final Four run last spring, is also out with an injury. He's supposed to miss six weeks or so, which means that while he'll be back for the season opener, he'll miss preseason practice -- in Duke's experience, that really hurt guys like Greg Paulus (2007) and Chris Collins (1995) and Mason last year.

MSU also lost top backup guard Chris Allen, who was dismissed from the team, and one of their two blue-chip freshmen guards is likely to miss the seson. Of course, they lost their best big man (Raymar Morgan) to graduation. They still have plenty of talent, but they've had a rough offseason.

I think think Purdue and Michigan State are Duke's two toughest challengers next season, but right now, I'd give Purdue a little bit of an edge.

DevilHorns
10-11-2010, 11:47 AM
Excellent posts above regarding injuries and their effects on their respective teams so will not add much to that topic.

I do want to say a few words regarding what I call ''sports destiny.''
Purdue in my eyes is ripe for it all. They were an incredible team last year before the unfortunate injury on Hummel. They were burning on all cylinders prior to that setback. We all know the story, they lost their number 1 seed (rightfully so) and semi-limped into March Maddness. When they played us I think that we can all agree that they played with an incredible level of toughness. That was a rugby game out there. They played with heart, passion, desire, all the accolades that many teams who lose their key player fail to have. With Hummell back, and their triumvirate in full force I am worried about them as our ultimate competitor. They have never won a championship and they will be hungry for it at an unprecedented level. We beat them last year en route to our championship. They will not forget that if we meet again in the tourney.

Wouldn't it be an ultimate ''sports destiny'' if they see us in the Final 4 with a healthy Hummell and supporting cast? That will be great basketball... and given the build up to that scenario, it scares me a little bit.

JasonEvans
10-11-2010, 12:03 PM
One thing to add to the already excellent notes on these two impressive teams --

DEFENSE!

Both of these clubs have a distinct identity as hard-nosed, physical defensive teams.

KenPom rated Purdue as the #3 team in the land for D last season. Michigan St was #30, but seemed to really buckle down on D later in the year. They allowed over 70 points only twice in their final 9 games. MSU was a fierce rebounding team too (as Izzo teams always are).

--Jason "Duke's offensive firepower against either of these two Ds would be fun to watch" Evans

Nugget
10-11-2010, 02:30 PM
While losing Kramer will definitely hurt Purdue given how important he was to their defense over the last 4 years, I was very impressed by the play in the game against us of Purdue's freshmen wing backups Kelsey Barlow and D.J. Byrd.

I think that with the experience of a year in Painter's very solid program those two can make up for 90% of what Purdue loses with Kramer's graduation on defense, and they are both better offensive players than Kramer.

And some combination of more minutes for Lewis Jackson, E'Tuan Moore getting some time at the point to help his NBA stock, and a highly regarded incoming PG recruit, should come pretty close to replacing Keaton Grant's contributions.

So, I think Purdue will be very tough this year.

GMR
10-11-2010, 02:51 PM
I am a Purdue graduate, so I follow the Boilermakers very closely along with Duke, where my daughter graduated in 1993. Duke and Purdue are my two favorite teams, so I am really excited about the upcoming season with both teams being so highly regarded.

I had a 1.5 hour conversation with Matt Painter a few weeks ago when he was addressing a coaches clinic in the Palm Springs, CA area where I live. He had spare time before his clinic appearance, so we discussed the upcoming basketball team at length.

The Big three are probably the top threesome on the same team in the country, although I think Singler, Smith and Irving would be a great challenge to Robbie Hummel, JaJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore. After this top three, Purdue is very average. The other 10 players are not top flight talent where Duke has not as many reserves, but the quality of Duke's reserves is superior to Purdue's.

Purdue's next best player beyond the Big three is likely to be incoming frosh Terone Johnson, 6'2", 210 pounds. He is better than his second 50 rating in most services last year. His outside shot is suspect, but he's a great defensive player and a good offensive penetrator and finisher. He will likely start at the 2 position. E'Twaun Moore at the 3. Terone Johnson will more than make up for the loss of Kramer.

To start the year, the likely point guard is Junior Lewis Jackson. He's 5'9", and I think can be easily posted up inside. Painter thinks he is susceptible in this area, but didn't think many teams tried this last year. He definitely is suspect in offensive players being capable of driving around him. He was a starter the last half of his frosh year, but was injured for the first half of this past year, and never regained the starting position. He is very average offensively.

I think a better prospect is soph Kelsey Barlow. He is 6'5", a terrific passer and ball handler, and a strong defensive player. It's his offense that is not good. He penetrates well, but doesn't finish well, and his outside shot is not good. I asked Painter if Barlow had worked on his offense this summer, and his response was "not as much as what I had hoped for". Another issue for Barlow is his temper. He is the son of Ken Barlow who starred at Notre Dame. Kelsey is a great athlete.

The remainder of the Purdue bench is deep, but not very talented. A 6'9" frosh may be the best of the rest. His name is Travis Carroll. He will be JaJuan's back up, and Painter said we may see some time with both JaJuan and Carroll on the court at the same time.

Being a strong supporter of both Purdue and Duke, I think Duke wins 3 of 4 matches between the two because of Duke's depth.

GMR

dchen09
10-11-2010, 03:02 PM
Johnson might be the best big man in the nation this year. He's a big, strong, athletic center that can score with his back to the basket.

I'm not saying that Johnson isn't a good player but he's not a big bullish center that dominates the paint. He has more of a finesse game and is definitely undersized at center, even at the college level, being only 221 lbs. He's also not much of a rebounder, posting only 9.1 rb/40 min last year.

One of purdue's biggest weakness is that they lack size. They don't have much of a front count outside of Johnson.

roywhite
10-11-2010, 03:02 PM
Thanks for a very informative post, GMR.

I hope your Boilermakers team avoids major injuries and gets a chance to shine. I was very impressed with JaJuan Johnson when Duke played them in the regionals. If he plays hard consistently, I see him as a dominant player.

Should be a good year for the B10/11.

GMR
10-11-2010, 04:01 PM
Thanks for the comments, roywhite. The word consistency is the key for Johnson. In the past, he has not shown the willingness or ability to contribute consistently or to play with maximum output all of the time. He tends to "coast" whenever he can.

I agree with your comments about JaJuan's game against Duke last year. He played consistently hard the complete game against Duke. He has added about 10 pounds and, according to Painter, worked pretty hard on the weights over the summer. He needs about 15-20 more pounds to be competitive in the NBA. NBA teams are really interested in him because of his 6'10" heighth and his ability to shoot the 15-20 foot shot. He backed away from the NBA after this past season because the NBA teams did not put him up highly because of his lack of consistency and his toughness was lacking, so he knows what he has to do to be considered as a lottery pick.

Hummel, if healthy, will help Johnson greatly on the boards. Hummel is Purdue's best defensive player according to Painter, and scraps like Singler. Singler and Hummel are very similar.

Painter feels that Hummel's injury last year was a blessing in disguise because Hummel would have gone NBA if he was not injured, and Johnson would have followed him, according to Painter.

Comments about his rebounding have been right on. He doesn't work as hard on the boards as Boiler fans would like, and rebounding has been one of Purdue's weaknesses.

GMR

DevilHorns
10-11-2010, 10:40 PM
As I said earlier, a Purdue match-up scares me simply because of how hungry they will be:


Garrett (Chicago)

What are your reasons for putting Purdue ahead of Duke? You have obviously thought this out.
Dana O'Neil (2:16 PM)

Garrett: You're right. I did. I remembered how well Purdue played last year without Hummel, when everyone thought they were down, and now with Hummel, I think they'll be even better. I also think that team has an edge to it. I spent some time w/ Hummel rehabbing this summer and they are really, really hungry. Feel like they've been cheated

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/34941

DevilHorns
10-11-2010, 11:17 PM
Though at the same time, it's not like Dana O'Neil has a history of being neutral towards Duke. She's up there with Pat Forde (remember the article from last year, 10 teams that can win it all, but one top 10 team that won't, and that one being Duke).

An article from Dana O'Neil in the past, anyone remember these thorns?

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/ncaatourney08/columns/story?columnist=oneil_dana&id=3304438


But Duke is quickly becoming the Green Bay Packers of college basketball, living more on its faded glory than on current success. The aura is tinged, the mystique has dissipated. This year, with no threatening big man and a team that looks imminently ordinary, what with a bunch of 3-point shooters, Duke was the 2-seed everyone wanted to get.


But history to 18-year-olds who IM instead of phone home is fleeting, and Duke just doesn't have recent enough entries to invoke that intimidation anymore. The Devils have not been to the Elite Eight since 2004, have been to just one Final Four in six years and haven't hoisted a national championship trophy since 2001.



If you're a Blue Devil, there is a glass-half-full/glass-half-empty way of looking at this game: that Duke survived a near-fatal blow and lived to tell about it … or that the Devils are in a boatload of trouble going forward.

Guess which one the Devils chose?

"We do need to play a lot better, but Belmont is a very good team and they shot the ball well," Singler said. "We need to play better defense, but our offense was there. Getting through this game will just help us, getting that thing off our back, that first win."

Not exactly fear-of-God instilling, knee-shaking, earth-quaking talk. But for this Duke team, it's all there is right now.

That is some saturated hate. So visceral. It seethes like pus from open wounds.

stillcrazie
10-12-2010, 07:56 AM
Though at the same time, it's not like Dana O'Neil has a history of being neutral towards Duke. She's up there with Pat Forde (remember the article from last year, 10 teams that can win it all, but one top 10 team that won't, and that one being Duke).

An article from Dana O'Neil in the past, anyone remember these thorns?

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/ncaatourney08/columns/story?columnist=oneil_dana&id=3304438


That is some saturated hate. So visceral. It seethes like pus from open wounds.


I actually wrote her an email after that article and confronted her with her anti-Duke bias, which she denied. I really thought she was pandering to the anti-Duke sentiment and was elated to see her proved wrong.