Ryan Kelly - what will he bring this year?

[1991 duke law]

I have seen some Youtube videos of Kelly this summer and he looks, at least in the highlights, pretty impressive. He reminded me a bit of Christian Laetner in his ability to shoot from outside and also take it to the hole.

Last year he looked a bit out of place when on the floor. I understand that he has put on some weight. With so much attention placed on Mason, Ryan is often overlooked.

Putting aside his ability to bang with the added weight, will he be able to bring offence to the table? If he is able to do so, I assume that he will be able to get some serious minutes. Has anyone seen him play this summer? Has he improved from his freshman year? Can he have an impact this year?

[Lord Ash]

I think Ryan Kelly will definitely have an impact this year. He is VERY highly skilled; remember, he was a top 15-20 recruit. Given that, and the nature of his skills (more of an outside threat than an inside banger) AND his size, I think we will see a lot of opportunity for Ryan to play against favorable matchups.

[blazindw]

Seeing Ryan Kelly at the President's Ball at Homecoming, he looks taller AND bigger than last year. I think he will be able to give us some solid minutes this year and will be versatile out on the wing as well as not getting pushed around as much when guarding big men.

[airowe]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say Ryan will start at least 4 games for Duke this season. There were four guys and about 20 pounds separating him from getting more meaningful playing time last season.

He's up to 235 lbs after an offseason spent on campus and watching him in the Pro-Am this summer is noticeably more confortable and confident in his body and on the court than he was just a year ago.

If either of the Plumlees show a lack of focus, a continued propensity to foul, or an inability to stay in defensive position, I could absolutely see Ryan inserted into the starting lineup.

He'll be light years ahead of last year. I see a lot of Wisconsin' Jon Leuer in his future.

[ACCBBallFan]

Both Ryan Kelly and Dre Dawkins are kind of under the radar vis a vis Kyle, Nolan, Kyrie, the Plumlees and Seth with 8 starter like guys on Duke roster.

Of the two I think Ryan prospers more, due to quantity and quality of his competition relative to Dre's with Kyle locking up the WF slot, but Dre will have a great season too.

The Plumlees so far have been mostly dunk and not much else and have had a tendency to foul. That could improve since last year they could afford to take risks going for highlight reel blocks, and this year they cannot.

With Duke preferring for Kyle to play mostly WF, Ryan Kelly and the Plumlees will each log minutes at 25 MPG rate sharing the PF/C slots, until Duke changes its lineup to protect a lead.

Josh Hairston at 6'7" 210 is too small to play PF in ACC, but will log some time there in most OOC contests and vs. GA Tech who is really small. His PT will likely mirror Ryan's last year and fall off come ACC play. At only 6'7", rather than bulking him up, Duke will likely play Josh as a WF as he matures at Duke.

So much flexibility. If Seth and Dre are just good to keep off the floor, relative to the contributions of Kelly and the Plumlees, against some OOC and ACC opponents, Duke could play 3 smalls with Singler at PF paired next to one of and backed up by two of Ryan Kelly and the Plumlees.

Once you get past Singler and Barnes, there are not that many outstanding ACC SF's. So Andre at 6'4" or even Nolan with his experience could play WF like Gerald or Demarcus. That would depend on whether Dre is more committed to defense this year.

I would not be surprised that the primary Duke lineup, both sometimes as starters and also at end of game is Kyrie-Nolan-Kyle- Ryan and a Plumlee with the other Plumlee, Seth and Dre all logging near starter minutes.

With penetrators like Kyrie, Nolan and Seth, I expect both Plumlees and Ryan to get a lot of open alley oops and easy baskets from them, or offensive boards when their defender moves over to help. 3 small is an option but not one Duke will employ much except during stall ball, now referred to as victory formation.

A lineup of Kyrie - Seth - Nolan - Kyle - Ryan at end of game would be very difficult if not impossible to defend and thus foe cannot make up ground. This lineup though could hold their own on defense since Kyle is bigger than any ACC PF not named Plumlee or Kelly except Howell at NC State and Gamble at Miami, until Tony Woods gets out of jail.

If one of those guys are in foul trouble, especially Dre but also Mason or Miles could play in that formation also.

Kelly now has the size to content with any ACC center except Jordan Williams and Reggie Johnson who will be a load for Miles or Mason too.

Not trying to ignore the imapct of Tyler and Josh, especially as valuable practice players, but realistically the other 8 command most of the PT.

[superdave]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say Ryan will start at least 4 games for Duke this season. There were four guys and about 20 pounds separating him from getting more meaningful playing time last season.

He's up to 235 lbs after an offseason spent on campus and watching him in the Pro-Am this summer is noticeably more confortable and confident in his body and on the court than he was just a year ago.

If either of the Plumlees show a lack of focus, a continued propensity to foul, or an inability to stay in defensive position, I could absolutely see Ryan inserted into the starting lineup.

He'll be light years ahead of last year. I see a lot of Wisconsin' Jon Leuer in his future.

You may be right about Kelly starting a handful of games. I think his passing skills out of the high post are a real asset, and he clearly showed that he has a good basketball IQ. But there is a difference between both getting bigger and playing well over the summer and playing like a 6'10'' big man during conference play. So a lot remains to be seen. I think Miles will be our most consistent big man this year, by the way.

While Duke spends Nov/Dec developing an identity, Ryan could (and should) see some big minutes. But I am not sure that he got enough minutes under his belt last year to be a revelation in Feb/March.

[elvis14]

... I think his passing skills out of the high post are a real asset, and he clearly showed that he has a good basketball IQ....

This is one of the things I noticed about Ryan last year. I thought he was a really good passer and showed good court vision. What really struck me was his ability to properly feed the low post (something we weren't relying on and others weren't good at). I think having a year of Duke basketball behind him, being healthy and being bigger and stronger is going to serve Ryan quite well. I'm really optimistic about his play next year. The way I see it, if he and MP1, MP2 are sharing most of the time for the 2 front court spots, there'll be plenty of minutes for all of them. Ryan's game is a little different than the Plumlee's which is a good thing, they'll complement each other quite well!

[Cockabeau]

First big of the bench of course but he is vital to this team because his skill set is so much different than the Plumlees.

1)Pick and pop. Ryan Kelley is the master at this.
2)Shooting. Not just 3-point shooting. Ryan is a superior shooter all over the court.
3)Blocks and rebounding.
4)Passing.

[uh_no]

First big of the bench of course but he is vital to this team because his skill set is so much different than the Plumlees.

1)Pick and pop. Ryan Kelley is the master at this.
2)Shooting. Not just 3-point shooting. Ryan is a superior shooter all over the court.
3)Blocks and rebounding.
4)Passing.

so are the plumlees better than kelly at...um....anything?

[Duvall]

First big of the bench of course but he is vital to this team because his skill set is so much different than the Plumlees.

1)Pick and pop. Ryan Kelley is the master at this.

Except that we haven't seen this.


2)Shooting. Not just 3-point shooting. Ryan is a superior shooter all over the court.

Or this.


3)Blocks and rebounding.

And certainly not this. Kelly's rebounding numbers don't compare to Miles' at this point.


4)Passing.

This we've seen.

[ACCBBallFan]

Except that we haven't seen this.

Or this.

And certainly not this. Kelly's rebounding numbers don't compare to Miles' at this point.

This we've seen.

As an undersized 210 pound PF without Henson's reach or springs, would not expect to see much last year, just as I do not expect to see much out of Josh Hairston this year.

One stat besides passing that you noted where Ryan's rate per minute was slightly better than Miles and about same as Mason is blocks per minute.

However most of his minutes came against OOC foes particualrly when Mason had the early season wrist injury rather than in ACC competition. As I recall Ryan was recovering from a flu/mono like symptom weight loss he could not afford to lose too.

So we will just have to watch and enjoy the progression this year, which should be pretty dramatic given the usual frosh to soph jump and the weight and strength gain from 210 to 235.

Miles Mason Ryan
819 480 227 minutes
231 104 38 reb
38 30 14 blk
248 125 41 pts
0.28 0.22 0.17 reb/min
0.05 0.06 0.06 blk/min
0.30 0.26 0.18 pt/min

I don't think it was Ryan's skill set or even his slender build as much as the team compoisition with Scheyer at PG and Zoubs at center, team mobility would be an issue. when Ryan was paired with them.

Not so much an issue anymore with Ryan teamed with Kyrie instead of Jon's speed and a Plumlee instead of Zoubek, but other tradeoffs such as experience, quality of beard, etc.

[Channing]

I see a lot of Wisconsin' Jon Leuer in his future.


Not possible. All tall white guys with a jump shot that play at Duke MUST be compared to Laettner. Realistic comparisons are not welcome on this board.

[Saratoga2]

Based on his performance last year and the fact that he has grown in height and gained both weight and strength I would expect Ryan to a smart player with a good skill set but not an abumdance of speed. His speed won't be a big issue at the power forward position and he seems to have a very good understanding on the game.

As far as Hairston is concerned, I too think he is small and light for the power forward position, but he is fairly athletic and he runs the floor well and seems to see plays developing. He is only an inch shorter than LT and might be able to guard some of the small forwards. If we get into issues at power forward due to injuries or foul problems, it is more likely that Kyle would get the duty there and Josh get PT at small forward.

[jimsumner]

As far as Hairston is concerned, I too think he is small and light for the power forward position, but he is fairly athletic and he runs the floor well and seems to see plays developing. He is only an inch shorter than LT and might be able to guard some of the small forwards. If we get into issues at power forward due to injuries or foul problems, it is more likely that Kyle would get the duty there and Josh get PT at small forward.

Folks, we're talking about a program where Robert Brickey, Carmen Wallace, Dahntay Jones, Lee Melchionni, DeMarcus Nelson and David McClure among others received major minutes at the 4. Hairston is about the same size as Mark Alarie, Lance Thomas, John Smith, Roshown Mcleod, Luol Deng and many other Duke 4s.

Hairston is projected to play inside this season.

[jipops]

Folks, we're talking about a program where Robert Brickey, Carmen Wallace, Dahntay Jones, Lee Melchionni, DeMarcus Nelson and David McClure among others received major minutes at the 4. Hairston is about the same size as Mark Alarie, Lance Thomas, John Smith, Roshown Mcleod, Luol Deng and many other Duke 4s.

Hairston is projected to play inside this season.

And guys like Alarie, Smith, and Mcleod were big-time threats from the perimeter while playing the 4 spot. I think Smith was even our center for awhile as he was spotting up for 3's. Hairston should be able to play to his strengths while at Duke. 6-7 is no less size at the 4 than almost any other team.

[MChambers]

Folks, we're talking about a program where Robert Brickey, Carmen Wallace, Dahntay Jones, Lee Melchionni, DeMarcus Nelson and David McClure among others received major minutes at the 4. Hairston is about the same size as Mark Alarie, Lance Thomas, John Smith, Roshown Mcleod, Luol Deng and many other Duke 4s.

Hairston is projected to play inside this season.

And remember that he'll be teamed with some fairly big teammates, including three 6'10" guys who can play the 5 and a 6'8" 3. He'll be fine at the 4.

[OldPhiKap]

And guys like Alarie, Smith, and Mcleod were big-time threats from the perimeter while playing the 4 spot. I think Smith was even our center for awhile as he was spotting up for 3's. Hairston should be able to play to his strengths while at Duke. 6-7 is no less size at the 4 than almost any other team.

Maybe we're thinking of different John Smiths, but the one I am thinking of only took one three pointer until his senior year. While he hit about 50% that year, he took less than two a game and averaged about 7 ppg that year.

http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/players/statlines.php?playerid=330

In any event, comparisons to other players is of limited use. Ryan is Ryan, and he's on the team he's on. He obviously has quality skills, and K will fit him into the game as his practice and the game plan permits. Some games more than others.

I get almost a Marty Pocius feel about this thread. The kid's still young, on a team of folks with some freakish athletic abilities. Give Ryan time -- he will run his own race, and continue to be a valuable part of our team.


Oh yeah, big P.S. -- RETIRE MARK ALARIE'S NUMBER ALREADY!!!!!! Since 32 is in the rafters, let's make it a two-fer.

[basket1544]

Ryan will get his playing time as it comes. Don't categorize him into one specific position - he's playing for Coach K. If he's the best player to have on the court at the time, he'll be out there. He's currently listed as our tallest player and he gained some needed weight during the off-season, but he seems to look for an outside shot and can defend against smaller players so he is versatile which is what will get him more playing time.

[ACCBBallFan]

6-7 is no less size at the 4 than almost any other team.

I never had the pleasure of watching some of the guys Jim listed, but the recent ones pretty much had Shelden Williams as the Landlord to cover for them defensively, or were uber athletes like Luol Deng or Dahntay Jones who were only slightly larger at 6'8" 220.

However in the ACC this year, everybody will have a PF starting who exceeds 6'7" and/or exceeds 210. A couple go 266 and 255 but average is about 6'8" and 230

Does not mean Josh cannot compete, just that he will be playing someone bigger. He does seem to have a nice turnaround J a la Deon Thompson's.

So I do expect Mason and Ryan to get bulk of the minutes at PF and then Singler after OOC play. If fouls mount, Josh could play a less experienced Dave McClure or Lance Thomas type of role in an emergency.

Kyle Singler Duke WF-PF 6' 08" 237
Jeff Allen VaT PF 6' 07" 230
Joe Trapani BC PF 6' 08" 228
Chris Singleton FSU PF 6' 09" 227
Mike Scott UVA PF 6' 08" 239
Mason Plumlee Duke C-PF 6' 10" 235
John Henson UNC PF 6' 10" 195
Dino Gregory MD PF 6' 07" 230
Tony Woods-?? WF PF 6' 11" 245
Richard Howell NC St PF 6' 08" 266
Julian Gamble Miami PF 6' 09" 255
Ryan Kelly Duke PF-2 6' 11" 235
Cortney Dunn BC PF-2 6' 08" 242
Devin Booker Clemson PF 6' 08" 235
James Padgett MD PF-2 6' 08" 225
Kammeon Holsey GaT PF 6' 08" 226
Melvin Tabb WF PF-2 6' 08" 220

[OldPhiKap]

Joe Trapani BC PF 6' 08" 228


Didn't he run out of eligibility four or five years ago?!?

He's been playing longer than Darius Songalia and Yvonne Joseph combined.

[pfrduke]

Didn't he run out of eligibility four or five years ago?!?

He's been playing longer than Darius Songalia and Yvonne Joseph combined.

Perhaps, but he hasn't reached Matt Christensen status yet...

[hq2]

Ryan will get his playing time as it comes. Don't categorize him into one specific position - he's playing for Coach K. If he's the best player to have on the court at the time, he'll be out there. He's currently listed as our tallest player and he gained some needed weight during the off-season, but he seems to look for an outside shot and can defend against smaller players so he is versatile which is what will get him more playing time.

I think that about gets it right. It should be pointed that neither of the Plumlees, despite flashes here and there, has demonstrated consistent low post offense. If Kelly can hold the fort on D and rebounding, I think his superior offensive skills could earn him significant minutes. Against certain teams with bigs who have bad perimeter D, he may even start. Look to him to get about as minutes as either of MP1 or MP2.

[Greg_Newton]

I think that about gets it right. It should be pointed that neither of the Plumlees, despite flashes here and there, has demonstrated consistent low post offense. If Kelly can hold the fort on D and rebounding, I think his superior offensive skills could earn him significant minutes. Against certain teams with bigs who have bad perimeter D, he may even start. Look to him to get about as minutes as either of MP1 or MP2.

I'm bullish on Ryan, but I think some may be giving him too much credit relative to the Plumlees under the circumstances. Last year's deliberate, methodical pace was ideal for Ryan's skillset and awful for the Plumlees. This year, the Plumbros' gazelle-like ability to fill the lanes on fast breaks and finish emphatically on the run should help them significantly more than it did last year, and I'm not sure Ryan has quite the same end-to-end speed and conditioning.

That said, he'll be one of my favorite players to watch grow this year.

[G man]

Not sure about everyone else, but so far I have been thrilled with Kelly's development. He has been playing very well. I hope he continues to improve and becomes a major offensive force inside. Mad props to Dre as well he has been a great surprise as well.

[elvis14]

This is one of the things I noticed about Ryan last year. I thought he was a really good passer and showed good court vision. What really struck me was his ability to properly feed the low post (something we weren't relying on and others weren't good at). I think having a year of Duke basketball behind him, being healthy and being bigger and stronger is going to serve Ryan quite well. I'm really optimistic about his play next year. The way I see it, if he and MP1, MP2 are sharing most of the time for the 2 front court spots, there'll be plenty of minutes for all of them. Ryan's game is a little different than the Plumlee's which is a good thing, they'll complement each other quite well!

According to my wife, I'm not right about things all that often :D So when I do, I should take the time to point it out. I really hope that Ryan continues his great play and many of us who said good things about him a few weeks ago continue to be right.

[dchen09]

I'm bullish on Ryan, but I think some may be giving him too much credit relative to the Plumlees under the circumstances. Last year's deliberate, methodical pace was ideal for Ryan's skillset and awful for the Plumlees. This year, the Plumbros' gazelle-like ability to fill the lanes on fast breaks and finish emphatically on the run should help them significantly more than it did last year, and I'm not sure Ryan has quite the same end-to-end speed and conditioning.

That said, he'll be one of my favorite players to watch grow this year.

The thing is, Ryan Kelly is not a slow plodding center like Zoubek was. He actually runs the court very well, and he can elevate as well (for example, the very first play of the Colgate game). They are both about the same weight so its hard to say which one is stronger. He has equal, if not better pass and ball handling skills compared to Mason. Ryan, by far, has a deadlier outside shot.

They have overlapping skills in that they are both shotblockers and they can both rebound. However, they do this in vastly different ways. Last night Ryan Kelly showed that he makes plays be knowing where to be. He plays the passing lanes very well without getting out of position at inopportune times. He block a shot just because he stayed close to his man, not because he has crazy hops. Is this method better than Mason for our system? Who knows, we'll see as the season progresses.