Scenario: NBA lockout...UNC vs. Duke...who has the edge?

[Cockabeau]

Duke vs. UNC
KI Drew2/Kendall?
Rivers Bullock
Curry Barnes
Plumlee Henson
Plumlee Zellar

On paper....who do you think benefits the most from a possible NBA lockout and why?

[Duvall]

Duke vs. UNC
KI Drew2/Kendall?
Rivers Bullock
Curry Barnes
Plumlee Henson
Plumlee Zellar

On paper....who do you think benefits the most from a possible NBA lockout and why?

The owners.

Why would we be talking about the lockout as if it's a good thing? I'm not particularly excited to see Duke players out of work, especially the seniors who gave up the chance to go to the NBA last year to try to win Duke another title.

[camion]

You forgot one matchup
Krzyzewski - Williams

I may be slightly biased, but game, set, match to Duke.

[monkey]

The owners.

Why would we be talking about the lockout as if it's a good thing? I'm not particularly excited to see Duke players out of work, especially the seniors who gave up the chance to go to the NBA last year to try to win Duke another title.

Well ... I agree that I wouldn't like to see the seniors not have a job ... on the other hand I'm sure once play resumes they will be quite nicely compensated ... to the tune of as much in one year as many people see in a lifetime of working, so I think they'll be ok.

Anyway, back to the topic ... hard to say who comes out ahead until we see KI and Barnes on the court and see how Plumlees step up as PT increases. I tend to think Duke benefits more because I think, no matter how polished and skilled the PG, a soph PG will be much better in year 2 than year 1 (see Jason Williams for example, who was spectacular coming out of high school but had ups and downs in a very good freshman year).

[Duke: A Dynasty]

Duke vs. UNC
KI Drew2/Kendall?
Rivers Bullock
Curry Barnes
Plumlee Henson
Plumlee Zellar

On paper....who do you think benefits the most from a possible NBA lockout and why?

Pg goes to Duke
Sg Duke
Sf UNC
Pf UNC
C Duke
Coach Duke

[RoyalBlue08]

More than anyone, Kentucky wins. Between Duke and UNC it is pretty close. We both stand to lose one very talented freshman to the draft.

[UrinalCake]

I don't know, UNC's starting lineup in 2011 looks like it has the potential to be pretty good. I think we have the advantage at both guard positions, but they have perhaps a slight advantage inside - a lot remains to be seen of course, but Henson and Zellar have gotten more PT than the Plumlees and from that standpoint have shown more thus far. Both teams also bring in a ton of talent off the bench, but I think Duke has more depth.

As for the topic of this thread, I'd have to say that if there is in fact a lockout which causes everyone to stay in school, UNC would benefit more. For Duke the lockout would only affect Irving and possibly Mason While losing these two would obviously hurt, I think we have enough other pieces to make up for it - play Rivers at the point, and rotate Kelly/Adams/Thornton at the 4. For UNC the lockout could affect Barnes, Henson, Zellar, and if all three of those guys were to leave then they would have no one inside other than PJ Hairston. So yeah, I think UNC has more to lose to the draft than Duke.

[theAlaskanBear]

I don't know, UNC's starting lineup in 2011 looks like it has the potential to be pretty good. I think we have the advantage at both guard positions, but they have perhaps a slight advantage inside - a lot remains to be seen of course, but Henson and Zellar have gotten more PT than the Plumlees and from that standpoint have shown more thus far. Both teams also bring in a ton of talent off the bench, but I think Duke has more depth.

As for the topic of this thread, I'd have to say that if there is in fact a lockout which causes everyone to stay in school, UNC would benefit more. For Duke the lockout would only affect Irving and possibly Mason While losing these two would obviously hurt, I think we have enough other pieces to make up for it - play Rivers at the point, and rotate Kelly/Adams/Thornton at the 4. For UNC the lockout could affect Barnes, Henson, Zellar, and if all three of those guys were to leave then they would have no one inside other than PJ Hairston. So yeah, I think UNC has more to lose to the draft than Duke.

Egregiously, Thornton is NOT a 4. Who do you mean?

Also, its pretty unlikely that Rivers would be playing out-of-position-PG as a rookie, especially is Seth Curry is in the fold. Assuming Irving leaves, Thornton/Curry would play point while Rivers played #2 or wing.

That said, I agree Carolina has more to gain because our two most important pieces: Smith and Singler, are gone no matter what happens in NBA.

[UrinalCake]

Egregiously, Thornton is NOT a 4. Who do you mean?

Also, its pretty unlikely that Rivers would be playing out-of-position-PG as a rookie, especially is Seth Curry is in the fold. Assuming Irving leaves, Thornton/Curry would play point while Rivers played #2 or wing.

That said, I agree Carolina has more to gain because our two most important pieces: Smith and Singler, are gone no matter what happens in NBA.

Sorry, Thornton = Josh Hairston. Also, I suppose Adams is more of a 5, but between Hairston, Kelly, Adams, MP2, and MP3 we have some good interchangeable parts to use inside.

My knowledge is somewhat limited but I was under the impression that Rivers is more suited to play the 1, and projects to play PG in the NBA, while Curry is more of a pure shooter who could share PG duties only if needed. Curry would have more experience, which is a good reason to play him at the point, but I wouldn't be surprised to give the ball to Rivers either. At any rate, our backcourt will be loaded even after losing Nolan and (maybe) Irving.

[dcdevil2009]

If there is a lockout, how much would possible endorsement money factor into underclassmen's decisions? If Kyrie has a year like John Wall last year, Nike could give him a few million reasons to leave regardless of whether he's getting an nba check. Unfortunately, I'd be surprised if the same sort of shoe money was out there for Kyle. Hopefully it won't be an issue and the NBA will avoid a work-stoppage.

[RoyalBlue08]

If there is a lockout, how much would possible endorsement money factor into underclassmen's decisions? If Kyrie has a year like John Wall last year, Nike could give him a few million reasons to leave regardless of whether he's getting an nba check. Unfortunately, I'd be surprised if the same sort of shoe money was out there for Kyle. Hopefully it won't be an issue and the NBA will avoid a work-stoppage.

That's an interesting point I've never seen made. Most people seem to be assuming that no underclassmen will declare if there is a lockout. Although, is it really in Nike's best interest to give a whole bunch of money to a kid who isn't going to be playing? Either way, i think this could only come into play for the 1 or 2 kids at the very top of the draft, and we won't know if that is HB or KI or anybody else until we see how they do in college ball.

[SuperTurkey]

In spite of an expected NBA lockout in 1998, lots of underclassmen left early (Mike Bibby, Antawn Jamison, Vince Carter, and others were all lottery picks). As long as there's a draft, I don't imagine early entry tailing off too much.

[sandinmyshoes]

Nike could probably offer contracts with qualifiers. A player could get a certain amount of money up front. Then the rest of their money would be adjusted according to their draft position and so forth.

[dukeimac]

Duke vs. UNC
KI Drew2/Kendall?
Rivers Bullock
Curry Barnes
Plumlee Henson
Plumlee Zellar

On paper....who do you think benefits the most from a possible NBA lockout and why?

KI over Drew 2 (not smart enough to run UNC's offense) or Kendall (to slow to push UNC's offense)

Rivers over Bullock (several scouts think Bullock will be average the first 2 years at UNC)

Barnes over Curry (I would match Dawkin's against Barnes and that might be a push, Curry is too small)

Plumlee 1, Plumlee 2, Kelly and Hairston push against Henson, Zeller and MacAdoo (Henson is only good for blocking shots, Zeller will cause problems for the Plumlees cause he can mover and MacAdoo maybe too raw)

[diveonthefloor]

There may be something good coming out of the upcoming collective bargaining negotiations.

Many coaches are lobbying the owners to morph the college-NBA relationship into more of a baseball situation. Yeah, kids are allowed to go straight into the pros, but if they choose college, then they are obligated to stay for more than a year before they are again draft eligible. There are a lot of nuances to such an agreement (e.g., where does the NBDL fit in, are rookie contracts guaranteed if a player doesn't make the NBA roster, etc).

It will be interesting to see what happens.

[SilkyJ]

There may be something good coming out of the upcoming collective bargaining negotiations.

Many coaches are lobbying the owners to morph the college-NBA relationship into more of a baseball situation.

Now THAT is interesting. I hadn't that as of yet. Did you read this somewhere, or know someone? Just curious b/c I would love for something like that to happen, but hadn't heard about it being part of the current negotiations.

[theAlaskanBear]

Another thing to consider: despite an NBA lockout, drafted players could go over and play in Europe!!

[MarkD83]

Another thing to consider: despite an NBA lockout, drafted players could go over and play in Europe!!

If we consider endorsements...would it be better to play for a few more years without pay at a US college that gets lots of TV exposure, or a few years in Europe with pay?

[dcdevil2009]

If we consider endorsements...would it be better to play for a few more years without pay at a US college that gets lots of TV exposure, or a few years in Europe with pay?

Good question. It would probably be better to play for Duke and be on espn 30 times a year, but not every school offers the kind of exposure we offer. I'm also not familiar with the endorsement money you would get playing in the Euroleague, but there's some exposure to a market you can't reach playing in college.

[COYS]

Good question. It would probably be better to play for Duke and be on espn 30 times a year, but not every school offers the kind of exposure we offer. I'm also not familiar with the endorsement money you would get playing in the Euroleague, but there's some exposure to a market you can't reach playing in college.

This is true, but ultimately the best way to get endorsements is to either be a top draft pick OR to be a star in the NBA for a big market team. Draft picks often get endorsements before they become proven performers (remember Oden's commercials that aired during his pre-rookie year when he was sitting out after microfracture surgery?). However, the real money is in being a star for a big market franchise. If a college player, even a high profile college player, becomes an average player or worse in the NBA, their star power and marketability fade quickly. You don't see JJ or Hansbrough in Nike ads even though they were the face of college basketball throughout much of their collegiate careers. I'm not sure the marketability of the Duke, UNC, or Kentucky brand would out way the payday awaiting players in Europe . . . especially since they know that if they are good in the NBA, endorsements will come their way, regardless.

[COYS]

Duke vs. UNC
KI Drew2/Kendall?
Rivers Bullock
Curry Barnes
Plumlee Henson
Plumlee Zellar

On paper....who do you think benefits the most from a possible NBA lockout and why?

This is an interesting hypothetical to consider while passing the weeks until CTC. I'd say that you'd have to weigh the benches, as well. Kelly, Dawkins, and Hairston will no doubt be major contributors by 2011 (and I think one or both of Kelly and Dawkins could actually sneak into a starting spot). I could even see a scenario where Austin plays the role of Maggette on the '98-'99 team and comes in off the bench to up the ante on offense. It's certainly a possibility. Thornton will also contribute, especially if he becomes a defensive stopper. How much will Strickland, McDonald, and whichever of the point guards that doesn't start have improved for UNC? McAdoo will have to be ready as a frosh, otherwise the lack of depth on the frontline will really hurt UNC. Will PJ Hairston be ready from day 1? What about Gbinije for Duke? Adams and Plum the third probably won't see much court time their frosh seasons, but you never know when that depth will be needed. If Cook joins the fold, that's another variable off the bench. I see more versatility in Duke's lineup. We can go big without sacrificing athleticism and we can play small and fast if needed to keep up with a smaller UNC lineup.

[Duke: A Dynasty]

This is an interesting hypothetical to consider while passing the weeks until CTC. I'd say that you'd have to weigh the benches, as well. Kelly, Dawkins, and Hairston will no doubt be major contributors by 2011 (and I think one or both of Kelly and Dawkins could actually sneak into a starting spot). I could even see a scenario where Austin plays the role of Maggette on the '98-'99 team and comes in off the bench to up the ante on offense. It's certainly a possibility. Thornton will also contribute, especially if he becomes a defensive stopper. How much will Strickland, McDonald, and whichever of the point guards that doesn't start have improved for UNC? McAdoo will have to be ready as a frosh, otherwise the lack of depth on the frontline will really hurt UNC. Will PJ Hairston be ready from day 1? What about Gbinije for Duke? Adams and Plum the third probably won't see much court time their frosh seasons, but you never know when that depth will be needed. If Cook joins the fold, that's another variable off the bench. I see more versatility in Duke's lineup. We can go big without sacrificing athleticism and we can play small and fast if needed to keep up with a smaller UNC lineup.

Why in the world would the number one player in the nation/most complete guard in the country come in off the bench? He can start at pg or sg.

[UrinalCake]

Why in the world would the number one player in the nation/most complete guard in the country come in off the bench?

Because if Curry and/or Dawkins blows up this year, combined with Irving returning, then you'd have to sit one of those guys (or move them to the "3") in order for Rivers to start. I think Maggette is a good comparison because the only reason he wasn't starting is that he was a freshman and the guys ahead of him had more experience without being significantly less talented. In K's system nobody is guaranteed a starting position until they earn it in practice.

[airowe]

Because if Curry and/or Dawkins blows up this year, combined with Irving returning, then you'd have to sit one of those guys (or move them to the "3") in order for Rivers to start. I think Maggette is a good comparison because the only reason he wasn't starting is that he was a freshman and the guys ahead of him had more experience without being significantly less talented. In K's system nobody is guaranteed a starting position until they earn it in practice.

Obviously, this is a hypothetical, bu in that scenario, I think you'd see a backcourt of Irving, Curry, and Rivers on the floor together often. Irving and Rivers are both 6'3" or taller in shoes and wouldn't give up too much height on the defensive end. I doubt teams could keep up with us on the offensive end though.

[superdave]

This is an interesting hypothetical to consider while passing the weeks until CTC. I'd say that you'd have to weigh the benches, as well. Kelly, Dawkins, and Hairston will no doubt be major contributors by 2011 (and I think one or both of Kelly and Dawkins could actually sneak into a starting spot). I could even see a scenario where Austin plays the role of Maggette on the '98-'99 team and comes in off the bench to up the ante on offense. It's certainly a possibility. Thornton will also contribute, especially if he becomes a defensive stopper. How much will Strickland, McDonald, and whichever of the point guards that doesn't start have improved for UNC? McAdoo will have to be ready as a frosh, otherwise the lack of depth on the frontline will really hurt UNC. Will PJ Hairston be ready from day 1? What about Gbinije for Duke? Adams and Plum the third probably won't see much court time their frosh seasons, but you never know when that depth will be needed. If Cook joins the fold, that's another variable off the bench. I see more versatility in Duke's lineup. We can go big without sacrificing athleticism and we can play small and fast if needed to keep up with a smaller UNC lineup.

I think the bench is a big plus to Duke. UNC has zero frontcourt depth because the Wears decided Roy was not the man for them. I think our bench will be really solid this year and next, although I dont agree with a lot of the sentiment that certain bench players will make huge leaps this year. Curry is the one guy who ought to be basically considered a 6th starter (channeling Bill Guthridge here), if he does what we expect.

[ACCBBallFan]

I don't know, UNC they have perhaps a slight advantage inside - a lot remains to be seen of course, but Henson and Zellar have gotten more PT than the Plumlees and from that standpoint have shown more thus far.

With two injury shortened seasons, Zeller does not have any more PT than Henson and both lag Miles.

Their teams ask them to play different roles, bot overall about same level of experience, with Plumlee brothers leading in games played, minutes played and rebounds and UNC duo in blocks and points scored.

Games Played:
64 - Miles
42 - Zeller
37 - Henson
34 - Mason
98 - Duke duo
71 - UNC duo

Minutes played:

819 - Miles
587 - Zeller
586 - Henson
480 - Mason
1299 - Duke duo
1173 - UNC Duo

Rebounds

231 - Miles
155 - Zeller
114 - Henson
104 - Mason
335 - Duke duo
169 - UNC duo

Blocks

58 - Henson
38 - Miles
30 - Mason
27 - Zeller
85 - UNC duo
68 - Duke duo

Points

299 - Zeller
248 - Miles
212 - Henson
125 - Mason
511 - UNC duo
373 - UNC duo

[ACCBBallFan]

Duke vs. UNC
KI Drew2/Kendall?
Rivers Bullock
Curry Barnes
Plumlee Henson
Plumlee Zellar

On paper....who do you think benefits the most from a possible NBA lockout and why?

I do not think a lockout affects player decisions that much since players have to decide before it is known for sure whether there will even be a lockout or for how long.

However the inexplicable Dee Bost precedent set by NCAA may make their decision reversable anyway.

No opinion on who benefits most but would add that each team has a lot more skilled guys in that scenario like Reggie Bullock, PJ Hairston, James McAdoo, Dexter Strickland, Leslie McDonald and possibly Cody Zeller among others for UNC, and Dre Dawkins, Ryan Kelly, Josh Hairston, Mike Gbinije, Marshall Plumlee and Tylers Adams and Thornton for Duke plus possibly Quinn Cook or Quincy Miller.

Their practices would be more competitive than most games, rather than just some games which is always the case for these two.

I think the bigger impact would be inability for either team to perpetuate the species with guys like Shabazz Muhammed, Alex Murphy, Andre Drummond, Kaleb Tarcewski, J P Toloto if he resurrects, etc. due to scholarship limits, and then losing half of each team's roster the year after the assumed full year lockout.

If anything it probably favors UK to force them to have some upperclassmen or at least sophomores, if they don't bolt to Europe. Brandon Knight is a good student, assume Gilchrist is, not sure about the others. If Kanter becomes eligible this year and then there is a lockout, he probably goes back to Turkey.

[Acymetric]

Because if Curry and/or Dawkins blows up this year, combined with Irving returning, then you'd have to sit one of those guys (or move them to the "3") in order for Rivers to start. I think Maggette is a good comparison because the only reason he wasn't starting is that he was a freshman and the guys ahead of him had more experience without being significantly less talented. In K's system nobody is guaranteed a starting position until they earn it in practice.

Dre could definitely play at the 3, at least in some cases. He might be at a little height disadvantage at times but I think he makes up for that with being a little quicker. He's 6'4 isn't he?

[COYS]

Why in the world would the number one player in the nation/most complete guard in the country come in off the bench? He can start at pg or sg.

As I said in my post, I could see a scenario where this might be appropriate. I don't expect it to happen, I was just indicating that Duke's lineup would be incredibly flexible and deep if no one leaves early for the NBA . . . so flexible in fact that the number 1 player in the country could actually come off the bench.

I agree with Airowe, though. I bet we'd start the three of them. We could get big and mean if we needed to with three of Kelly, MP1, MP2, or Hairston, but I'd bet a lineup with Rivers, Irving, and Curry and two bigs would put up some massive offensive numbers . . . and that still leaves Dawkins, Thornton, and possibly Cook on the bench.

[dukebluelemur]

More than anyone, Kentucky wins. Between Duke and UNC it is pretty close. We both stand to lose one very talented freshman to the draft.

Ahhhh..... but see, in their second year, first year class work (or lack there-of) actually starts to matter. If even half of Kentucky's freshmen are even eligible to play a second year, it'll be because UK hired some HS teachers from Birmingham.

You really think Kanter (if he is even eligible this year), for one, is going to pass (or even go to) ANY of his classes?

[flyingdutchdevil]

Ahhhh..... but see, in their second year, first year class work (or lack there-of) actually starts to matter. If even half of Kentucky's freshmen are even eligible to play a second year, it'll be because UK hired some HS teachers from Birmingham.

You really think Kanter (if he is even eligible this year), for one, is going to pass (or even go to) ANY of his classes?

Brandon Knight is one of the smartest players from the class of 2014. Great grades, nice kid.