Duke's Biggest Weakness

[airowe]

In the midst of unbridled optimism seemingly everywhere except our #2 ranking in The Sporting News, I'm going to step outside my normal positive self and ask what our biggest weakness is this year?

The lack of a true back to the basket player?

A freshman point guard?

Too lofty expectations?

I know there aren't many, but there has to be one or two, right?

[MChambers]

In the midst of unbridled optimism seemingly everywhere except our #2 ranking in The Sporting News, I'm going to step outside my normal positive self and ask what our biggest weakness is this year?

The lack of a true back to the basket player?

A freshman point guard?

Too lofty expectations?

I know there aren't many, but there has to be one or two, right?

The lack of proven defenders inside. Last year, when any of MP1, MP2, and RK came in, our defense wasn't as good. Let's see if they can improve, especially in providing help.

[Nugget]

In my mind our two biggest questions are:

1. Post depth/poise/presence.

It is odd to think back to a year ago and consider how much one would be worried about replacing Zoubs and Lance Thomas. But, their experience, especially on defense, their willingness to embrace their offensive roles, Zoub's extraordinary offensive rebounding and the ability of both of them to play effectively with foul trouble are all things that the more naturally gifted Plumlees may not be able to pull off. And, I would say there's got to be a significant question about how much Ryan Kelly and/or Josh Hairston can really contribute this year. It would not surprise me at all to see Kyle playing 12-15 minutes in big games as the 2nd "big."

2. The disease of me.

Will Kyrie, Nolan, Seth and Andre be able to share the minutes, shots and glory in the backcourt.

I think they can, and that Coach K is a master at the psychology needed to help players thrive in the kind of situation where personal agendas might take over. But, if you're are reaching to see risks, that is a potential one I see.

[The Gordog]

In the midst of unbridled optimism seemingly everywhere except our #2 ranking in The Sporting News, I'm going to step outside my normal positive self and ask what our biggest weakness is this year?

The lack of a true back to the basket player?

A freshman point guard?

Too lofty expectations?

I know there aren't many, but there has to be one or two, right?

I think the only thing that can undo this team (other than injuries which are always a threat to any team) is the fact that there have at least 3 potential first team All-Americans, so expectations of being "the man" or the "go-to guy" could lead to resentment or disapointment. I think that K saw this happen in 2002 when we had J-Will, Boozer and Dun all wanting to be it.

I don't think we need a back to the basket scoring specialist, but I also think Singler will be able to post up alot of the guys who will try (and fail) to guard him.:D

[DeBlueDevil]

With the lack of great teams around the country and with the LOADED roster we have along with the best coaching staff in college basketball in K, Wojo, Collins, and Nate I believe the only team that can beat us is the Duke Blue Devils.

While there are a few teams that raise an eyebrow here and there Mich St., Butler, Purdue, or maybe an Ohio State I still think we create way too many matchup problems offensively for other teams. And although our interior defense is going to probably where a lot of teams will attack us, I believe that we will suprise a lot of people with Mason and Miles on the floor. If we can get even a little of good production out of Kelly or Hairston in the post it is going to be a LONG year for other teams. And how soon people forget that although it would be the last thing we want to do in moving Kyle to the 4. It is a possibility and we could just spread the floor in light up our opponent with a penetrating Kyrie dishing to Nolan, Andre/Seth, Kyle, and Mason/Miles on the floor. We our very deep and can handle just about any attack someone throws at us and with K coaching at his best right now I just think the only team that can stop Duke is Duke.

But thats the great thing about having a Coach K...the meltdowns that we witnessed UNC go through last year...I can't even remember the last time we've had that problem. As long as we stay "hungry and humble" as Kyrie would say...it'll be back 2 back my friends. And with Kyle and Nolan back to steer the ship...i don't see us veering off the path to another title. LETS GO DUKE!!!!!

[mkline09]

In the midst of unbridled optimism seemingly everywhere except our #2 ranking in The Sporting News, I'm going to step outside my normal positive self and ask what our biggest weakness is this year?

The lack of a true back to the basket player?

A freshman point guard?

Too lofty expectations?

I know there aren't many, but there has to be one or two, right?

If there is a weakness I can see it being Irving not being an inexperienced on ball defender. Duke is going to look to push with him on offense, but they also will want him to apply pressure out on the floor. If he gets in foul trouble that will force Nolan, or Seth Curry to play more out front and may cause them to not pressure as much.

Combine that with a potential drop off in rebounding and I think Duke has some weak spots despite what should be a very good team.

[The Gordog]

If there is a weakness I can see it being Irving not being an inexperienced on ball defender. Duke is going to look to push with him on offense, but they also will want him to apply pressure out on the floor. If he gets in foul trouble that will force Nolan, or Seth Curry to play more out front and may cause them to not pressure as much.

Combine that with a potential drop off in rebounding and I think Duke has some weak spots despite what should be a very good team.

I would predict that Nolan will be the primary on ball defender unless the other team has a super stud shooting guard that simply must be stopped.

[sagegrouse]

I see three problems that have to be surmounted:

1. Team chemistry. This is a different group of guys with the PG gone, and the real glue guy (LT) as well. To me, that was the problem in 2002.

2. The "bigs." Miles and Mason and Ryan have to take three giant steps forward on both offense and defense.

3. As airowe said, a freshman point guard, who must play at an extremely high level on both offense and defense.

Weaknesses? Not yet. But these could be...

sagegrouse

[Kedsy]

The lack of proven defenders inside. Last year, when any of MP1, MP2, and RK came in, our defense wasn't as good. Let's see if they can improve, especially in providing help.

This is it. Interior defense will be what makes or breaks this team. And by that I mean if our interior defense is only adequate we will be a fantastic team with an Achilles Heel (although hopefully not a Tar Heel) and if our interior defense turns out not to be a weakness we will be absolutely scary.

If the latter turns out to be true, then our second biggest potential weakness is overconfidence. That is what I believe was our undoing in 2002.

[gam7]

1. I think we'll be susceptible to teams with a good big man in closely officiated games. I'm not convinced that our big guys can stay out of foul trouble consistently and I can envision a game like the 04 uconn game in the final 4 where shelden (and others?) fouled out with about 4 minutes left and okafor just dominated a helpless horvath. I think Ryan Kelly will have similar problems despite his weight gain.

2. We have had a lot of teams that have fallen in love with the 3 way too much and we have abandoned any sense of offensive balance even when shots aren't falling. I could see that happening to this team potentially.

[Troublemaker]

This particular Duke team's preseason status of heavy favorite is very unique, I think. Very few consensus preseason #1 teams have ever:

(i) started a freshman point guard
(ii) returned only a total of 10.1 points and 9.1 rebounds from its frontcourt

Certainly I doubt any consensus preseason #1 has ever had both (i) AND (ii) be true of it.

Not disagreeing with Duke's status as consensus preseason #1; just pointing out what I think is an interesting historical perspective about it. (And surely very few consensus preseason #1 teams have ever had TWO preseason All-Americans on the wings...)

[Duvall]

This is it. Interior defense will be what makes or breaks this team. And by that I mean if our interior defense is only adequate we will be a fantastic team with an Achilles Heel (although hopefully not a Tar Heel) and if our interior defense turns out not to be a weakness we will be absolutely scary.

If the latter turns out to be true, then our second biggest potential weakness is overconfidence. That is what I believe was our undoing in 2002.

Well, that and a lack of perimeter defense. Duke will at least have the size to be effective this year.

[roywhite]

This particular Duke team's preseason status of heavy favorite is very unique, I think. Very few consensus preseason #1 teams have ever:

(i) started a freshman point guard
(ii) returned only a total of 10.1 points and 9.1 rebounds from its frontcourt
Certainly I doubt any consensus preseason #1 has ever had both (i) AND (ii) be true of it.

Not disagreeing with Duke's status as consensus preseason #1; just pointing out what I think is an interesting historical perspective about it. (And surely very few consensus preseason #1 teams have ever had TWO preseason All-Americans on the wings...)

I don't want to be too picky here, but Kyle Singler could easily be called a front court player; he led the team in rebounds with 7.0 per game, and was also capable of defending forwards.

Wing player? Yeah, he's that too.
Or just player.

The 1991-92 team that went wire to wire.....what did they have coming back in the front court (again, Grant Hill....was he a front court player, wing player, or some of both).

[camion]

I'm worried about the possibility of the team, especially the younger members believing the predictions. This year's team has great possibilities, but they have won ZERO games so far this season and if they think it will be easy therein lies trouble.

[Troublemaker]

I don't want to be too picky here, but Kyle Singler could easily be called a front court player; he led the team in rebounds with 7.0 per game, and was also capable of defending forwards.

Wing player? Yeah, he's that too.
Or just player.

The 1991-92 team that went wire to wire.....what did they have coming back in the front court (again, Grant Hill....was he a front court player, wing player, or some of both).

Well, the '92 team also had Christian Laettner in the frontcourt, no? (And Grant Hill was a future perennial All-Star; love Kyle and he IS versatile and he will be a devastating weapon this season but I hesitate to compare ANYONE to Grant, even a preseason NPOY, just based on Grant's rare Hall-of-Fame-if-not-for-injury talent. But I'm digressing.).

Yes, I do think you're being a bit picky here. Basically I'm just saying very few preseason #1's return so little production from their bigs (and I do realize Singler will play some PF). That situation IS somewhat unique, right? And the freshman point guard is unique, too, for a consensus preseason #1? (Look, I expect Duke to be very good if you think I am implying otherwise.)

[trinity92]

I'm not nearly as worried about Kyrie being asked to run the team as a freshman because Nolan will share the backcourt with him. Nolan has enough PG skills that he can really provide relief to Kyrie both on defense and running the offense. This will not be a repeat of Hurley or Williams being handed the ball as freshmen because there is essentially another PG starting alongside Kyrie to take a lot of pressure off him.

[Kedsy]

Well, that and a lack of perimeter defense. Duke will at least have the size to be effective this year.

Perimeter defense? The 2002 team had Jason Williams, Chris Duhon, and Dahntay Jones (plus Daniel Ewing off the bench) on the perimeter. If perimeter defense was that team's problem (which I don't think it was), it came from lack of trying and/or overconfidence, not lack of skill.

Or am I misunderstanding your post?

[Kedsy]

I'm not nearly as worried about Kyrie being asked to run the team as a freshman because Nolan will share the backcourt with him. Nolan has enough PG skills that he can really provide relief to Kyrie both on defense and running the offense. This will not be a repeat of Hurley or Williams being handed the ball as freshmen because there is essentially another PG starting alongside Kyrie to take a lot of pressure off him.

Seth Curry can probably provide some relief at the point as well, if needed.

[Duvall]

Perimeter defense? The 2002 team had Jason Williams, Chris Duhon, and Dahntay Jones (plus Daniel Ewing off the bench) on the perimeter. If perimeter defense was that team's problem (which I don't think it was), it came from lack of trying and/or overconfidence, not lack of skill.

Or am I misunderstanding your post?

No, because I meant to say interior defense.

[Kedsy]

No, because I meant to say interior defense.

Ah, now I understand. Well, I agree the 2002 team was small up front and this year's team won't be, but questionable interior defense is not only about size. Boozer and Dunleavy in 2001-02 were better defenders than any of our returning big men showed in 2009-10.

Miles, Mason, and Ryan all have to show improved defensive footwork, have to rotate better, and have to avoid losing their men on cuts. I have high hopes that they will, but if not then interior defense will be an exploitable issue for this year's team.

[Devilsfan]

Hoping Ryan has manned up is ready bang with the big boys. He's our Zoubs of 2011.

[NSDukeFan]

Good discussion topic Airowe. I think some good points have been brought up by other posters. The questions I have include:

Communication - I believe I have heard coach K talk about offense, defense and communication being the three areas teams need to work on. With a lot of turnover and three seniors gone, will the team be able to develop the level of communication on defense needed to be a solid unit. I believe improvement is most important from our bigs as Zoubs and Lance were in the right place at the right time most of the time last year and that is where I hope we see the most improvement from the Plumlees.

Leadership - I expect Kyle and Nolan will be outstanding leaders, but I hope they can lead the team to focus as well everyday in practice as well as Jon and Lance did last year.

Rotation - Can the coaching staff develop a rotation that takes advantage of the team's outstanding depth and maximizes the performances of our outstanding talent. Fortunately they have consistently demonstrated an ability to do this and I think this is what energizes coach K each year.

Finishing - I was extremely impressed with last year's team's ability to finish games. I realize some don't like milking the clock at the end of games, but last year's team did that consistently as well as any college team I can remember. The team used the clock well, defended well and was very good with the lead. Will this year's team with a freshman point guard take care of the ball and get solid possessions at the end of close games?

Decision-making - I am expecting a great season from Kyrie. I also expect he may generate more offense for other players than Jon did. I also expect he will turn the ball over more often than Jon did. When Duke is in a close game next year, will Kyrie make good decisions with the ball and make sure (along with Kyle and Nolan) that the team gets good shots at key moments.

System changes - I expect both the offensive and defensive systems to change drastically from last year. Will the team be effective in these new systems and learn or re-learn habits.

Improvement - I am hoping and expecting improvement from all the team's players over the summer. I think this Duke team will be the most talented team at the start of this year. If this team goes through a stretch of big games without a few losses, will they continue to focus and improve so that they can also be the best team at the end of the year. The team that was the best at the beginning of last season was not the best team at the end.

Overall, I see some potential weaknesses, but more questions that will need to be answered. (I am looking forward to Phase 0 with great anticipation.) From a talent perspective, the team doesn't have a lot of weaknesses, but how will the team come together and can they focus on getting better everyday when they will consistently be told how great they are. Should be exciting.

[roywhite]

Well, the '92 team also had Christian Laettner in the frontcourt, no? (And Grant Hill was a future perennial All-Star; love Kyle and he IS versatile and he will be a devastating weapon this season but I hesitate to compare ANYONE to Grant, even a preseason NPOY, just based on Grant's rare Hall-of-Fame-if-not-for-injury talent. But I'm digressing.).

Yes, I do think you're being a bit picky here. Basically I'm just saying very few preseason #1's return so little production from their bigs (and I do realize Singler will play some PF). That situation IS somewhat unique, right? And the freshman point guard is unique, too, for a consensus preseason #1? (Look, I expect Duke to be very good if you think I am implying otherwise.)

I don't see the frontcourt as a weakness. There's size, talent, and depth. How the minutes sort out and who emerges is not known, but possibilities abound.

I don't see PG as a weakness. For the sake of discussion, yes, Kyrie is a freshman, but there's also great depth in the backcourt and others who can handle the ball, including Nolan and Seth Curry. The playmaker role won't be solely on Kyrie.

If anything, the risk might be team chemistry or perhaps a degree of overconfidence, a concept that the team can turn it on when needed, which can be a fatal flaw. But, Nolan, Kyle, and Coach K should be aware of such a tendency and will work against it.



The main impediment in my mind---just the one loss format of the national tournament. Upsets can happen.

[MarkD83]

In the midst of unbridled optimism seemingly everywhere except our #2 ranking in The Sporting News, I'm going to step outside my normal positive self and ask what our biggest weakness is this year?

The lack of a true back to the basket player?

A freshman point guard?

Too lofty expectations?

I know there aren't many, but there has to be one or two, right?

Our perception as fans of how Duke does will be the weakness of this team. Every fan seems to expect a Nat'l Championship. Don't go there. We need to enjoy each game and each win.

[Troublemaker]

I don't see the frontcourt as a weakness. There's size, talent, and depth. How the minutes sort out and who emerges is not known, but possibilities abound.

I don't see PG as a weakness. For the sake of discussion, yes, Kyrie is a freshman, but there's also great depth in the backcourt and others who can handle the ball, including Nolan and Seth Curry. The playmaker role won't be solely on Kyrie.

If anything, the risk might be team chemistry or perhaps a degree of overconfidence, a concept that the team can turn it on when needed, which can be a fatal flaw. But, Nolan, Kyle, and Coach K should be aware of such a tendency and will work against it.

The main impediment in my mind---just the one loss format of the national tournament. Upsets can happen.

Indeed. Like others, I do not regard those spots as "weaknesses" but rather "question marks" (I should've clarified that, given the thread title). Duke fans know what we have in Singler and Smith; the rest of the players have a wider range of possibilities. But realistically, even the bottom of their range would not include "weak" since we're talking about such gifted players. The context is "what might prevent Duke from being #1," not "what is bad about Duke."

The preseason hype surrounding Duke '10-'11 is usually reserved for teams with more than two returning starters, more PG experience, and more returning big man production. But "questions" can certainly end up having positive answers. I will enjoy finding out (as I'm sure you will, too).

[DukieInBrasil]

The preseason hype surrounding Duke '10-'11 is usually reserved for teams with more than two returning starters, more PG experience, and more returning big man production. But "questions" can certainly end up having positive answers. I will enjoy finding out (as I'm sure you will, too).
Duke returns 2.5 starters! Considering that Miles started half the year. Still, your idea is pretty much right.
Nolan has the majority of a season under his belt as a PG (So. year, was somewhat overwhelmed by the job at that time, tho') and Seth Curry was the PG for Liberty his Fr. year (tho' he sat out last year). So, despite the fact that we will be relying on a Fr. PG, we do have some experience at the PG position aside from KI. Still, I think your idea is pretty much right, at least, it would be that much more re-assuring if we had KI as a So. at PG!!!

[soccerstud2210]

weaknesses? eh, I don't know. haven't seen a game yet, but BOY I can't wait to find out!!!!!

seriously. I am REALLY looking forward to this season. not because of being preseason #1. actually, that scares me. because unless we are that at the end of the season it means absolutely nothing. I am most looking forward to this season because I like THIS team. going to miss the seniors of last year, but I really like these guys on this year's team. it's going to be great watching how KI adjusts to college ball. and how NS and KS lead this team. and how/if MP1 and MP2 and RK step up. and how legit SC really is. and how AD fits into the system or how he provides a spark off the bench. not to even mention JH and TT and where they fit in and how the contribute either on the practice court or game court.

I for one, am chomping at the bit to just see this group of guys in action and how Coach K leads and coaches this group of talent!!!!! bring on the season!!!!!!:D:D:D

[gep]

Couple of thoughts. I think that team chemistry... how they get along, etc... is a question for me. Coach K mentions it a lot. With most of last year's team back with their experience of what it means to be a "team", I think they can get the freshmen integrated without much problem. But, saying that, I think Zoubs, Jon, and Lance had a BIG part in the "team" last year. I hope the experience the returning players had will continue and translate to the freshmen.

Also, I think that Coach K, with his team-USA experience in the Worlds... brand new team, young team, limited height, learning how to best use his players... will be very useful and exciting. It's not like he needs any more, but like he says, he's always learning, and I think he's even more excited for this year than ever.

Can't wait...

[Kedsy]

Also, I think that Coach K, with his team-USA experience in the Worlds... brand new team, young team, limited height, learning how to best use his players... will be very useful and exciting. It's not like he needs any more, but like he says, he's always learning, and I think he's even more excited for this year than ever.

Can't wait...

The most likely starting lineup would measure 6'10", 6'10", 6'8", 6'2", 6'2". The bench would be 6'11", 6'7", 6'4", 6'2", 6'1". Where's the "limited height"?

[gep]

Also, I think that Coach K, with his team-USA experience in the Worlds... brand new team, young team, limited height, learning how to best use his players... will be very useful and exciting. It's not like he needs any more, but like he says, he's always learning, and I think he's even more excited for this year than ever.



The most likely starting lineup would measure 6'10", 6'10", 6'8", 6'2", 6'2". The bench would be 6'11", 6'7", 6'4", 6'2", 6'1". Where's the "limited height"?

Sorry.. my "limited height" comment was for team-USA (along with team-USA's youth and essentially no international experience), not this year's Duke team:cool:

[Kedsy]

Sorry.. my "limited height" comment was for team-USA (along with team-USA's youth and essentially no international experience), not this year's Duke team:cool:

Oh, OK. Sorry.

[gumbomoop]

Indeed. Like others, I do not regard those spots as "weaknesses" but rather "question marks" (I should've clarified that, given the thread title). Duke fans know what we have in Singler and Smith; the rest of the players have a wider range of possibilities. But realistically, even the bottom of their range would not include "weak" since we're talking about such gifted players. The context is "what might prevent Duke from being #1," not "what is bad about Duke."

The preseason hype surrounding Duke '10-'11 is usually reserved for teams with more than two returning starters, more PG experience, and more returning big man production. But "questions" can certainly end up having positive answers. I will enjoy finding out (as I'm sure you will, too).

Lots of interesting posts in this thread. I'd bet many posters would, on sober second thought [apparently first thoughts are invariably drunken, second invariably sober], accept Troublemaker's friendly amendment re "?-marks" rather than "weaknesses." I, at least, prefer Troublemaker's characterization.

Generally this thread assumes an implicit comparison with the ?-marks facing MSU and Purdue, Duke's main [i.e., only] challengers for preseason#1 nationally; an implicit comparison with the ?-marks facing UNC, for obvious [i.e., GTHC] reasons; and just possibly an implicit comparison with UK's season to come, for the reason that Calipari's one-done project is so fascinating. Further, the thread exemplifies our [including my] entitlement expectations, as gently noted by MarkD83 in post #24.

To issue #1 - comparing Duke's to MSU's and P's ?-marks - I'd argue that although Duke's are slightly fewer, all 3 teams have every reason to have very high expectations for '10-'11 and a deep NCAAT run. Re motivation, you'd sure have to give Purdue an edge. Re proven clutch excellence, hard to top Smith/Singler, though Purdue fans would disagree. Re experienced depth, I guess it's maybe a tie between Duke and MSU.

To issue #2 - IMO, most objective observers would say the Heels have plenty of talent, but have a substantial # of ?s that [modifying Troublemaker's useful reminder] will have to "end up having positive answers" for them to make a deep run. Ditto for UK.

FWIW, the most intriguing ?-mark for the Heels, to me, is a particular aspect of the Heels' oft-discussed PG issues: is Drew a happy camper, confident enough to accept the criticism leveled at him last year, team-player enough to welcome Marshall's arrival and minutes? [More on this, and the Heels' ?-marks, from many posters on other threads as the season approaches......]

There's one sort of "all bets are off" factor that, too, is implicitly understood: injuries to a key player or 2. Last year's season-ending injuries to Hummel and Lucas were, well, crummy. Ditto for Thompson, already this year at VaTech. And I personally would like to see Tyler Zeller get an injury-free season.

[JBDuke]

Good discussion topic Airowe. I think some good points have been brought up by other posters. The questions I have include:

Communication - I believe I have heard coach K talk about offense, defense and communication being the three areas teams need to work on. With a lot of turnover and three seniors gone, will the team be able to develop the level of communication on defense needed to be a solid unit. I believe improvement is most important from our bigs as Zoubs and Lance were in the right place at the right time most of the time last year and that is where I hope we see the most improvement from the Plumlees.

Leadership - I expect Kyle and Nolan will be outstanding leaders, but I hope they can lead the team to focus as well everyday in practice as well as Jon and Lance did last year.

...

IMO, these two are the biggest questions as we go forward. If you look at what we lost, all 3 seniors had limitations in their on-court games, but they all excelled in leadership and communication. Losing 3 starters that all excelled in these skills leaves a big gap to be filled. I think you're right in that Kyle and Nolan will step it up, but it would really help if one of the Plumlees would do this as well. Having a defensive anchor under the basket that can see the whole floor in front of him and communicate to his teammates is a great asset. Lance and especially Big Z were great at this last year.

[Troublemaker]

gumbo, I think the troika of favorites you mentioned (Duke, MSU, Purdue) are in the KU/UK role from last season i.e. a preseason favorite that, if healthy, has a chance to maintain its favorite status throughout the season and into March. [I suspect, though, that one of MSU or Purdue will disappoint and, by March, won't be as highly regarded].

As you know, there are also currently unidentified teams out there that will play the Syracuse/Duke/Butler role from last season, i.e. an undervalued team in the preseason that becomes essentially as good as (some would say better than) the KU/UK preseason favorites [certainly last season's Duke team enjoyed a better ending than KU and UK]. There should again be surprise national contenders that play well above their preseason projections. Will it be Kansas State this season? Ohio State? Baylor (again?)? We'll see.



There's one sort of "all bets are off" factor that, too, is implicitly understood: injuries to a key player or 2. Last year's season-ending injuries to Hummel and Lucas were, well, crummy. Ditto for Thompson, already this year at VaTech. And I personally would like to see Tyler Zeller get an injury-free season.

I agree completely. Often the injury that derails a team is not the Hummel or Onuaku type that keeps a player out. Often it's the subtle one that limits his effectiveness while playing. Could Duke '09 and Duke '08 have been better teams with a fully healthy Zoubek? Very conceivable considering what he did last season. Maybe Duke '08 ends the season better if Henderson doesn't injure his wrist. Does Duke '06 advance further if Demarcus Nelson isn't hobbling around on a bad ankle? We can always look back and find these things.

[gumbomoop]

.... there are also currently unidentified teams out there that will play the Syracuse/Duke/Butler role from last season, i.e. an undervalued team in the preseason that becomes essentially as good as (some would say better than) the KU/UK preseason favorites [certainly last season's Duke team enjoyed a better ending than KU and UK]. There should again be surprise national contenders that play well above their preseason projections. Will it be Kansas State this season? Ohio State? Baylor (again?)? We'll see.

I agree with your general point here, if not with all the specific examples.

There must be better analogies to last year's Syracuse/Duke/Butler than this season's KSt/OSt/Baylor, as the first 2 of those are likely consensus top 5-7, and some have Baylor top 10, too.

Maybe this year's semi-surprise will be Missouri or Illinois? Bigger surprise still, though not inconceivable, would be emergence of a team such as Temple or San Diego St. But now I'm reaching a bit. More than a bit.....

[JayZee]

As in every year, the biggest potential stumbling block is injuries. We have a number of key players, Kyle in particular, that, if missing, would severely lessen the strength of the team.

The other potential weakness I see is matching up to quick, big wings. We have a ton of 6 2" ish guys, and a bunch of bigs with good lateral quickness, just not elite. Frankly if Barnes and Bullock meet/exceed expectations down the road, they will provide a real challenge, assuming their point guards can get the ball over half court...

[Kedsy]

As in every year, the biggest potential stumbling block is injuries. We have a number of key players, Kyle in particular, that, if missing, would severely lessen the strength of the team.

The other potential weakness I see is matching up to quick, big wings. We have a ton of 6 2" ish guys, and a bunch of bigs with good lateral quickness, just not elite. Frankly if Barnes and Bullock meet/exceed expectations down the road, they will provide a real challenge, assuming their point guards can get the ball over half court...

You don't think Kyle and Nolan will be able to defend Barnes and Bullock?

[superdave]

IMO, these two are the biggest questions as we go forward. If you look at what we lost, all 3 seniors had limitations in their on-court games, but they all excelled in leadership and communication. Losing 3 starters that all excelled in these skills leaves a big gap to be filled. I think you're right in that Kyle and Nolan will step it up, but it would really help if one of the Plumlees would do this as well. Having a defensive anchor under the basket that can see the whole floor in front of him and communicate to his teammates is a great asset. Lance and especially Big Z were great at this last year.

Leadership and Communication will both be built over the course of the season, if we have the same positive growth we had last year. I dont expect the younger guys (FR & SO) to be able to communicate well on D until much later in the season. But if they do pick it up and grow into it in end-of-game situations, then the team will realize it's potential.

[striker219]

As in every year, the biggest potential stumbling block is injuries. We have a number of key players, Kyle in particular, that, if missing, would severely lessen the strength of the team.

The other potential weakness I see is matching up to quick, big wings. We have a ton of 6 2" ish guys, and a bunch of bigs with good lateral quickness, just not elite. Frankly if Barnes and Bullock meet/exceed expectations down the road, they will provide a real challenge, assuming their point guards can get the ball over half court...

I don't think they'll have too much trouble getting it over half court. Getting closer than about 25' from the basket could prove to be a challenge, as will be moving the ball around the the three point line. With the speed and depth that we have this season, I'm guessing that we are going to see a team that presses and overplays the passing lanes like we haven't seen in years.

[greybeard]

First, we have to see how this team presents. Lance and Brian created an extraordinary ethos around which this team, I'm betting every single member of it, grew throughout the year. This team will be very young and not have seniors who gave of themselves and perserved as those guys did throughout their careers and each moment when they were on or off the court.

Second, last year's team was big, real big. Aside from Brian, and that is a huge aside, Jon presented as a great defender to have at the guard position. Rebounding and defense is what this team must show. The defense, one would assume, will rely on incredible exterior pressure, guys being ready to shoot passing lanes, and, ever more, the ability to play the pick and roll game with creativity and precision. Without Jon, if a little gets stuck on a big off a screen defended by a show-and-then recover type strategy, well, let's say there are questions about the overall defense. By questions I mean, how will K chose to deploy on defense, how well will it mesh with how he intends this team to score, and how well the things that are essential to that defense's doing what it must to Duke to prevail strategically remain very much to be seen. That was the case going into last year, when dramatic changes were made, and so the fact that it is so this year is not cause for great concern.

I think that the interior is vulnerable, that the extraordinary screen game built around Brian will be impossible to replicate and I am very unclear how committed and clever Duke's bigs can be in such a role. They might not need to be, given the penetrating ability off the bounce of any number of its players, but a good screen is nice to have. Actually, it is more than that, and it takes everything a player has to make it work. This isn't the playground, defenses are extraordinarily sophisticated, and Miles and Mason have yet to show that they can get it done in that regard. As I said, I don't believe that there was a player in recent memory, which is all I have these days, that was in the same universe as Brian was in that regard last year.

Offensive rebounding and fouls, inside defending and rebounding and fouls, are the other biggies.

The most interesting aspect of last years story-book story to me was how two journeymen players emerged as the team's leaders. I know that Jon lead on the court, set an amazing example, and that Kyle and Nolan were unbelieveable. However, to me it was first Lance, but once he broke out, really Brian, that created something special. And, how special was it when the star-system so prevalent in all of sport could not compute to explain last year's National Champion, whose strength did not emerge from the alfa wolf, but rather from a man thought for years to be a marginal member of the pack.

So, I'm looking forward this year for Mr. Ordinary to emerge, and it just have to be in the person of one or more of the stars. Should be a hoot.

[CLT Devil]

I agree that the main questions/potential weaknesses of this year's team are going to be interior defense, chemistry and in-game experience.

Interior D - Our 2002 team was really hurt by the loss of Battier, especially inside blocking shots and rebounding. We were obviously talented with Mike D and 'Los, but I think this year is similar in that we need someone who will do the work that Lance and Shane did. I am hoping that obviously the Plumlees will make a huge step, but I also like Kyle down low on D for his toughness and willingness to fight. We need Hariston to be that gritty type of player who is willing to take a charge, kick out a rebound, etc.

Chemistry - I can't say enough about the three guys whp graduated and what they meant to the team, and especially how they embodied Duke Basketball. Lance, a highly regarded recruit who many (includinh myself) did not think reached his potential until his senior year. Z, plagued by injuries and lacking strength and experience came up huge in his senior year, especially when it mattered the most. And finally Jon, who whenever he had the ball in his hands was a calming force for the whole team. Not only was he one of the clutch players Duke has ever had but he also was extremely crafty in getting his game going.

These three guys are going to be hard to replace for their experience if nothing else I mentioned above. Playing together for more than just a couple of years and developing chemistry is something this team will not have the luxury of doing, but that does not mean bonds and trust can't be formed during the past summer and through the year.

Experience - For all of the excitement of our guys coming in, Curry finally playing and the Plumlees having the frontcourt to themselves there is also a lack of in-game minutes except for Nolan and Kyle. The Plumlees have a good deal but when the game was on the line it was Lance and Z who were in the game. Hopefully they play well enough and stay out of foul trouble to be in it at the end. Andre has the next highest gametime experience, which is pretty wild to consider. Toward the end of the year he did not see the court much, but when he did the 'baby faced assassain' drained some huge shots. Other than that we have a guard, Curry, who played in a lesser league for one year (I'd almost take one-on-one time with his bro over D-II ball). Kelly seems to have the highest potential for improvement, but that is because he was rarely utilized last year.

What's left are two guards and a forward who have yet to play a college game. Sure, they play in great HS leagues and AAU ball but they will have to learn on the job so to speak.

I know I have repeated what some others have stated, but I think if we can have these three aspects of the team work out the rest is pretty much taken care of as far as talent/personnell, coaching, competition from other teams and execution.

I am very much looking forward to this year, and think it's important for everyone to realize how young and inexperienced (as far as in-game time against ACC talent) this team is. Anyone who thinks we are 'likely' to win the NCAA needs to temper their expectations. We might be the likeliest team to win, but the way the Tourney is set up makes it impossible for a team to be 'likely' to win unless you return a whole team such as Duke or Florida.

[uh_no]

This team will be very young and not have seniors who gave of themselves and perserved as those guys did throughout their careers and each moment when they were on or off the court.

Ummmmm.....maybe i'm misunderstanding you....but to suggest that kyle and nolan haven't given just as much of themselves to this program as the guys who were seniors last year is ridiculous

[Bob Green]

Other than that we have a guard, Curry, who played in a lesser league for one year (I'd almost take one-on-one time with his bro over D-II ball).

An excellent post overall, but I have one minor nitpick with it. Seth Curry did not play D-II ball. He played D-I ball at Liberty who is a member of the Big South Conference. The Big South Conference champion earns an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. Last season the conference champion was Winthrop. They lost to ARPB in the play-in game.

[CEF1959]

I'm not concerned about KI, perimeter defense, experience, chemistry, or (least of all) size. But I think the biggest question is whether our bigs will be sufficient forces under the board -- banging, rebounding, defending, blocking out, etc. Zoubs was a critical force last season in that regard. He was missed sorely the previous year, and he'll be missed this year too if Miles, Mason, Josh, and Ryan don't do those things consistently. They don't all have to be forces inside, but either one of them does, or they must accomplish it collectively.

That said, I'd rather be worrying about that from our side of the fence, rather than trying to figure out from the other side how the heck to beat this team. Tyler gave an interview recently in which he talked about his skill at, and commitment to, defending both on and off the ball. How'd you like to wear yourself out defending KI and/or Nolan, then have a rested and hungry defensive minded Tyler in your face when KI or Nolan goes out for a rest?

And if both Miles and Mason turn out to be forces inside, mamma get me a beer.

[-bdbd]

The most likely starting lineup would measure 6'10", 6'10", 6'8", 6'2", 6'2". The bench would be 6'11", 6'7", 6'4", 6'2", 6'1". Where's the "limited height"?

Just a nit to pick: There have been threads on these boards debating what is "our most likely starting line-up." I think w/o question we will see quite a bit of experimentation, as K is inclined to do, in the first 2+ months to ID optimal combinations. Certainly one very possible starting line-up, if K opts to with "the 5 most talented players" route, would give us starters at 6'10", 6'8", 6'3", 6'2", 6'1". This one certainly would have great speed overall, and would be terrific at D/pressing, but would be a be challenged for height matchups and rebounding in general. That said, it would also create many impossible match-up issues for many opponents at the other end... (think Villanova in 2008-2009 as they trashed us in the NCAAT).

But to the main thread theme: I see our biggest weaknesses, er, opportunities to improve, would be: (1) Lack of athletic/quick wings with any size; (2) Lack of interior strength and depth (these two compound on each other as weaker interior players are more likely to to get pushed around and then foul); (3) Relative inexperience and chemistry questions. (Any time you have 3 new starters, several new roles for returnees, and a frosh PG, this is going to get brought up. Fortunately, most of these will be overcome as the season moves along, and likely non-issues by March.) :confused:


As another poster pointed out, when was the last time a team that lost 3 of the 5 starters, and 40% of its scoring and most of the rebounding, ever thought of as preseason #1??? That is pretty exciting. :D




:cool:

[MarkD83]

(1) Lack of athletic/quick wings with any size;



Being "alarmingly unathletic" worked out pretty well last year. :)

My real sense is that even if there are weaknesses on this team, Coach K is pretty good at setting up schemes to work to his players strengths.

A quote I heard in the mid 90s about Coach K pretty much sums it up.

"He can beat you with his players and then he can beat you with your players."

[Cockabeau]

Our biggest weakness will be chemistry. Singler, Nolan, Kyrie are playing to go in the first round. Yet there is also Dawkins, Plumlees, Curry.

[airowe]

Our biggest weakness will be chemistry.

I've seen a lot of this on this thread and on other boards. I think this is one of the last things we have to be worried about with this bunch. These guys are really tight.

[greybeard]

Ummmmm.....maybe i'm misunderstanding you....but to suggest that kyle and nolan haven't given just as much of themselves to this program as the guys who were seniors last year is ridiculous

I wasn't clear enough. What is extraordinary is that Brian, I believe, emerged as the team's fountainhead, a beacon for others to follow, blend with, even while he had been so marginal for so long. Lance was also of that ilk but he had a larger role longer, and had natural leadership, out-there abilities. Together, no one would have named them the epi-center of the team, the t*e*a*m* going into the season and there are probably many who would not do so coming out. But, there they were, and I believe that it was their leadership which held the Plumlees together, which inspired Nolan and Kyle and Jon even more. And, beyond that, it was Brian's complete mastery of the game from a perspective that no one else I have seen has ever quite looked at it from before, and made whole teams look confused because they were at what they encountered in Duke because of him.

There was a quality of everyman in Brian that he wore like a badge of courage; labels were inconsequential as was conventional measures of effective play. He made people play a game that they didn't know how to compete against, and did it with an effort towards doing the type of things asked perhaps of offensive linemen. Now, others in Duke's lineage have done similar things, but to me none emerged so brilliantly, took all the pundits completely by surprised such that to this day I believe that few could explain this guy's worth, or what it took.

His teammates, however, knew, and had to have been blown away. Would Nolan have been as stone cold tough at the end of games as he was in many big ones, probably. The guy had it in him, but I have to think that Brian's dance, the game Brian brought, the intensity and intelligence to things that go unmeasured by ESPN analyists had to have brought out that steal with much more focus and singlemindness. How could it have not. And, the same for Kyle. Heck, he had his difficulties last year, but, come on, where was Brian during Kyle's first 2 1/4 years on this team? Did that make having rough spots easier to live with, to play with, to play through, especially when on the third pick in a single set Brian might have run collectively about 60 feet to create an edge for Nolan or Jon, who drew Kyle's man, and then the rough spot was cleansed in the effort of team, in the effort of everyman, in the world of anominity that Brian functioned in, that was oh so foreign to what ESPN and 50 televised games every three days has made of the sport.

This was something beyond extraordinary, in my view. It is a story that perhaps gets submerged in the performances of Kyle and Nolan and Jon for some, but not for any of the members of that team I should think, not for K who I have to believe was surprised himself at what Brian had become.

So, those are some big shoes to fill. They are sometimes filled on a team by guys on the bench nobody ever sees play, collectively, sometimes, but I don't know that Championships are born of them.

And I don't know if stars can evoke that kind of inspiration in the rest of their teammates. I really don't. If they can, as I said, it will be in my view precisely because they somehow hold themselves as ordinary. It might be by not even thinking about a shot sometimes when they get the ball because keeping it moving might allow someone else to create, to lead, to initiate, to carry the load, the weight. It might be how they are in the locker room, during practices, on the bus. But Duke this year will need to find that place of extra from everyone to create an environment where individuals but above all the team qua team continues to grow. I think that that is a real challenge for players with the talent of Nolan and Kyle, with the pros watching their every move to determine when they will go.

Who knows, maybe this is all a bubble, some soap filament filed with air that will go pop and disappear. That there is nothing to this beyond a cheap dime novel's worth of romantic dramatization. Might be, but then again, I've been around and I've seen, and it is preseason. We'll just have to wait and see. Like I said, should be a hoot.

[Kedsy]

And I don't know if stars can evoke that kind of inspiration in the rest of their teammates. I really don't.

I understand what you're saying, but accepting your premise as true I believe it was actually Brian's devotion to the fundamentals and playing so hard at things that had no tangible reward -- other than winning -- that inspired his teammates. Personally, I believe that if a "star" similarly devotes himself to the unappreciated fundamentals (like Shane Battier did) it evokes even more of an inspirational reaction from his teammates. Most stars, however, don't do it, because they can be perceived as so good and so valuable without doing it.

So I would reframe your issue as will Nolan and Kyle and Kyrie and Seth play their hearts out and do all the little things it takes to make their teammates better and to win? I think they probably will, so I think we'll be OK.

[Saratoga2]

Just a nit to pick: There have been threads on these boards debating what is "our most likely starting line-up." I think w/o question we will see quite a bit of experimentation, as K is inclined to do, in the first 2+ months to ID optimal combinations. Certainly one very possible starting line-up, if K opts to with "the 5 most talented players" route, would give us starters at 6'10", 6'8", 6'3", 6'2", 6'1". This one certainly would have great speed overall, and would be terrific at D/pressing, but would be a be challenged for height matchups and rebounding in general. That said, it would also create many impossible match-up issues for many opponents at the other end... (think Villanova in 2008-2009 as they trashed us in the NCAAT).

But to the main thread theme: I see our biggest weaknesses, er, opportunities to improve, would be: (1) Lack of athletic/quick wings with any size; (2) Lack of interior strength and depth (these two compound on each other as weaker interior players are more likely to to get pushed around and then foul); (3) Relative inexperience and chemistry questions. (Any time you have 3 new starters, several new roles for returnees, and a frosh PG, this is going to get brought up. Fortunately, most of these will be overcome as the season moves along, and likely non-issues by March.) :confused:


As another poster pointed out, when was the last time a team that lost 3 of the 5 starters, and 40% of its scoring and most of the rebounding, ever thought of as preseason #1??? That is pretty exciting. :D







:cool:

We start the season with 4 quick and capable guards in the 6'1" to 6'2" range and one larger and quite capable guard who is 6'4". Unlike the NBA, there are not many guards at the NCAA level who are both big and skilled. I see strength at the guard position.

At small forward we have a premier player in Singler, who had all last year to polish his abilities at that position. In addition, we have Hairston who has a lot of skill and will develop nicely throughout the season. Can't see a weakness at the small forward.

At the power forward/center position we have three guys with reasonable experience and size. To nit pick some of the earlier posts, Ryan said in an interview that he is 6'9 3/4" in stocking feet. I guess when the roster has him as 6'11", that is with thick soled sneakers. What does that make the Plumlees/ 6"9" in soxs? I think they are big enough to be very competitive and they are also athletic and pretty strong guys. We will miss that really huge presence of Brian inside this year, but as long as we can stay healthy, we will be strong but not dominant inside.

This team has ability, depth and reasonable experience. Relative to other teams, we have more strengths than weaknesses.

[BD80]

I think our biggest weakness, and it is a weakness - not just a question mark - is our beard in the post.

Miles is trying to replace the Zoubeard, and it appears he is putting forth an admirable effort. But it is just unreasonable to expect a rather unheralded junior to assume the mantle alone. The Zoubeard provided more than just offensive rebounds, it was the manna that sustained us through the tournament, our Mjöllnir to vanquish foes invading our lane, our One Ring to unite us. Such a responsibility cannot fall to a mere mortal.

I think we will confront this loss the way Coach K confronts most challenges, as a team. From the team picture, it appears that there is more facial hair than we would normally see, and I believe the face fur will increase as we head into conference play and then on to the tournament. Maybe, like the Phantom, the magic is in the mystique, and Miles will be imbued with Plumbpower the equal of the Zoubeard. But we should all be ready to do our part.

Fortunately, none of our competitors seem to have discovered the power of the Zoubeard - making the success of our pursuit all the more likely

[dukeimac]

Interesting take on the weaknesses. When one projects the loss of Zo and Lance as huge and the fact that Miles and Mason were not on the court at the end of the games as being a weakness I wonder how you could come to that conclusion.

Before last season Zo wasn't hardly on the court. Yes he had injuries but he still wasn't on the court. Until last season, Lance wasn't on the court at the end of games, many of times because of foul trouble. Thus, I have to ask myself how did they become a BIG part of a national championship team?

I believe they "learned" how to deal with all the situations they were faced with by practicing, watching and listening. The weakness of Duke's inside game will be if Miles, Mason and Ryan didn't listen well and didn't practice well. If they did listen well and did practice well, this is no concern. Actually, they are one step ahead of Zo and Lance. Zo and Lance had to learn how to be a national champion (and did an excellent job at that) while Mile, Mason and Ryan got a first hand look and lesson.

Zo had to learn how to over come injuries that slowed down his game and Lance had to learn how to stay out of foul trouble. Miles, Mason and Ryan got a first hand lesson on what needs to be done to be a part of a national championship team. They saw first hand the commitment it will take.

Obviously, witnessing Coach K preach on a daily basis and seeing the hard work Zo and Lance put in to be a national championship doesn't give Miles, Mason and Ryan any advantage. Right?

The number one weakness of Duke's team this season is an ultra ego! Did anyone develop an ultra ego over the summer? They learned just how important team chemistry is, first hand. Team chemistry shouldn't be an issue unless someone developed an ultra ego over the summer.

[superdave]

I've seen a lot of this on this thread and on other boards. I think this is one of the last things we have to be worried about with this bunch. These guys are really tight.

Chemistry on Duke teams means communicating on defense and making the right reads on offense to get the best shot. This team will not be there on day 1, but like last year, has a ton of room to grow. I do expect this team to reach title-caliber levels earlier than last year's team did (Mid Feb?).

[Slackerb]

The number one weakness for this Duke team is easy to diagnose:

How to stop Tracy Smith. Or more precisely, guys like him.

In the Duke/State game, and several others last year, big guys gave Duke fits and most of the losses were based on getting pushed around inside. I know the State game was a good example of this.

And this year, the interior defense and rebounding will be even more suspect.

Also, without a decent inside offensive game, the team will be more prone to hot and cold shooting. A good inside game insulates you from that, and Duke will lost a game or two to cold shooting nights because of that lack of inside presence.

[Kedsy]

The number one weakness for this Duke team is easy to diagnose:

How to stop Tracy Smith. Or more precisely, guys like him.

In the Duke/State game, and several others last year, big guys gave Duke fits and most of the losses were based on getting pushed around inside. I know the State game was a good example of this.

And this year, the interior defense and rebounding will be even more suspect.

Also, without a decent inside offensive game, the team will be more prone to hot and cold shooting. A good inside game insulates you from that, and Duke will lost a game or two to cold shooting nights because of that lack of inside presence.

I disagree with this analysis. First of all, our defense last year was not your typical Duke defense. Instead of pushing at the opponent's perimeter and harrying the passing lanes, we tried to stop the outside shot, rebound misses, and rely on the rotation of our big men to deal with quick players who drove past our perimeter defenders. Teams who could credibly play four-out, one-in could exploit this because the inside help defender was too far away to rotate effectively so when a quick guard penetrated the sole big man defender was forced to either give up a layup by the guard or a dump off to the one offensive inside player. State did this very effectively (with Smith as the one-in) as did Georgetown, and Villanova in the 2009 NCAAT.

This year's defense will be very different, relying on our (now) ultra-quick perimeter players to push the perimeter out of the opposing PG's comfort range, making interior passing difficult and harrying the passing lanes for steals. If an opposing guard manages to get through the half court pressure, then our bigs obviously still have to rotate properly, but I think the actual weakest point of the defense will be recognizing and stopping backdoor cuts. This is where Miles, Mason, and Ryan have to step up their game, but if we fail defensively, it won't be because Tracy Smith (or anybody else) is "pushing them around" inside.

On offense, while Duke will be one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country (if not the best), we will not need a "decent inside offensive game" to deal with cold shooting nights. First of all, we'll be running the fast break a lot, and will get a good number of easy baskets that way, but even in the halfcourt offense we have Kyrie, Nolan, Kyle, and Seth, all of whom will be able to drive past most of their defenders with relative ease. At that point, all we need from our bigs is to get in position to catch the alley-oop or dump off if their defenders leave them to stop the driving guard.

Put another way, you don't need a good inside game to insulate you from a poor shooting night; what you need is some way to get easy baskets, and Duke should have plenty.

Just my opinion, of course.

[Slackerb]

All that is based on ideal play, perfect world, opinions of how the ideal Duke game should run.

All I'm saying is that when things don't go well, the lack of good interior defense and offense will be Duke's weakness.

Duke has one of the best backcourts in the country, including an AA wingman, but only mediocre forwards.

I think you guys, being the die-hard fans that you are, make it a lot more complicated sometimes than it is.

It's obvious that the biggest weakness is the inside game, and when Duke loses, it'll be in large part because of the lack of superior frontcourt.

[The Gordog]

And I personally would like to see Tyler Zeller get an injury-free season.

Well, OK. As long as somebody else takes the fall instead ;)

[greybeard]

I understand what you're saying, but accepting your premise as true I believe it was actually Brian's devotion to the fundamentals and playing so hard at things that had no tangible reward -- other than winning -- that inspired his teammates. Personally, I believe that if a "star" similarly devotes himself to the unappreciated fundamentals (like Shane Battier did) it evokes even more of an inspirational reaction from his teammates. Most stars, however, don't do it, because they can be perceived as so good and so valuable without doing it.

So I would reframe your issue as will Nolan and Kyle and Kyrie and Seth play their hearts out and do all the little things it takes to make their teammates better and to win? I think they probably will, so I think we'll be OK.

We're pretty close on this, I certainly wouldn't disagree that the team ethos will be greatly enhanced if others join Nolan and Kyle in playing the way you describe.

I should tell you that while I don't disagree with your description of what distinguished Brian I don't agree with it either. I don't agree that it was devotion to fundamentals alone that defined his play, I think it was creativity and finding a way to express and manifest his understanding of the game, his feel for it in real time, in ways that were unconventional and demanded things of defenses that they were ill equiped to meet.

To me, pigeon holing what those things are, and presupposing that it simply a matter of will with regard to them while scoring or passing or driving the ball are much more cerebral and talent ladden misses reality.

Look, Brian from that Maryland game onward demanded a central place for himself on both ends of the court and his role evolved and grew. He did not need to reach back, he did not need to pump Miles and Mason, to literally embrace every teammate. He lived and shared his achievement, which is what won them that championship. No Brian as a performer, no championship. No Brian as a leader, no championship.

Battier is his own thing.

[JayZee]

You don't think Kyle and Nolan will be able to defend Barnes and Bullock?

Not that strong, but I see it as our biggest potential defensive weakness. Nolan, while a great defender is still just 6'2" and Kyle, while also a nationally underrated defender, does not have elite lateral quickness. There is no grant/billy k type wing defender on this team. This exercise kind of feels like picking fly poop out of pepper, so I'm going to stop, cause I do feel like we very well might end up talking about this 2011 team in the same breath as 86 and 99, except hopefully with a NC...

[Cockabeau]

The number one weakness for this Duke team is easy to diagnose:

How to stop Tracy Smith. Or more precisely, guys like him.

In the Duke/State game, and several others last year, big guys gave Duke fits and most of the losses were based on getting pushed around inside. I know the State game was a good example of this.

And this year, the interior defense and rebounding will be even more suspect.

Also, without a decent inside offensive game, the team will be more prone to hot and cold shooting. A good inside game insulates you from that, and Duke will lost a game or two to cold shooting nights because of that lack of inside presence.

Are you serious?Duke opponents might try this and it worked in the past but it aint gonna work no more. Duke has too many good shooters this year and a PG that can create off the dribble. The only way I can conceivably predict a Duke loss is a dominate big man AND a couple of shooters that can stroke it. Simply pounding the ball inside isn't going to work this year.

[IrishDevil]

Our biggest weakness will be chemistry. Singler, Nolan, Kyrie are playing to go in the first round. Yet there is also Dawkins, Plumlees, Curry.

Coach K has a passion for leadership, both in terms of leading his team/program and identifying/developing leadership in his players. Aside from being passionate, he's also pretty dang good at it. But, accepting your premise that Kyle, Nolan, and Kyrie are all gunning for their own numbers and a lottery pick, blending egos is also something Coach K has had great experience and decent success with in the last few years :) IMHO, I don't think chemistry is a problem facing the team this coming season.


Chemistry on Duke teams means communicating on defense and making the right reads on offense to get the best shot. This team will not be there on day 1, but like last year, has a ton of room to grow. I do expect this team to reach title-caliber levels earlier than last year's team did (Mid Feb?).

While I agree that those are important features of a successful Duke team, I'll quibble with your definition of chemistry a little, superdave. Team chemistry has always struck me as the five-fingers-one-fist idea - gelling with teammates on and off the court and buying into the team concept. To stretch the hand analogy (perhaps a little too far), maybe communication/good reads would be more like developing neural connections between the fingers to coordinate the fist's movement?

To illustrate my thinking on the difference between communication/good reads and chemistry: Let's say a big didn't switch off a screen defensively and his man got an open back door lay up because he didn't hear the switch call. The missed assignment is bad communication. If a teammate, instead of encouraging him or constructively reminding him about switching on screens, rolled his eyes and threw up his hands in response, that would be bad chemistry. So communication is certainly key, and good communication and good chemistry can certainly reinforce each other, but I still see them as distinct.

While losing last year's seniors definitely changes the dynamic of the team as other posters have mentioned, I don't think the chemistry will suffer. Plus, I think we will still see a fair amount of that hardworking blue-collar attitude. It's tough to a think of a player more willing to do the dirty work to help his team win than Kyle. I think Miles can also step into a similar role. Is it Bilas that always talks about lunch-pail type games? I can see Miles turning in his fair share of them. I look forward to the faster tempo and running game, but I also look forward to gritty basketball and tough, in your shorts D!

Since this thread seems to waffle between stumbling blocks and questions, I'll pose one of each:

Stumbling block - this is not a new thought, but I think with a less experienced team, the weight of the expectations placed on them this season will be a serious challenge. I am confident the team and staff can meet the challenge, but it could be a hurdle.

Question - with the graduation of LT, who will emerge this season as the next Nate Dogg disciple?

[tele]

Biggest Weakness? Don't think it's recruiting. Most teams losing three senior starters off a national championship team might suffer some difficulties just from loss of experience. But when you have two returning starters from that team who will be seniors you can't really complain much about that, especially if those two returning starters were mvps on a national championship team.

It will be fun to see how this years team comes together and does some of the things that was so great to see Scheyer, LT, and Zbek do on last years team; value the ball, play hard nosed d, offensive rebound, set unending screens, and move so well on help defense. May not be a weakness, but I hope this years team doesn't have too much expectations and pressure on them too early, so they get a chance to play their way to their best team ball.

Maybe the biggest weakness is not having the countdown clock to the first game on the dbr homepage.

[phaedrus]

[I suspect, though, that one of MSU or Purdue will disappoint and, by March, won't be as highly regarded].



It will be Michigan State, but the regular season disappointment won't stop them from making a tournament run.

[LSanders]

... then our second biggest potential weakness is overconfidence. That is what I believe was our undoing in 2002.

And '99?

[Kedsy]

Question - with the graduation of LT, who will emerge this season as the next Nate Dogg disciple?

In what way was Lance Thomas a Nate Dogg disciple?

[IrishDevil]

In what way was Lance Thomas a Nate Dogg disciple?

Unfortunately I can't come up with specific links to articles or posts, but I seem to remember there being some talk about how Lance really began to mature as a player (less frantic, more disciplined and focused, tougher) right about the time Nate James came on staff. I remember at least some of this improvement being attributed to Nate Dogg's presence and tutelage. Again, this is from my more than fallible memory, so I'd welcome any correction, Kedsy.

Maybe I'll broaden and clarify my question. Question for this season: is there a player who could benefit especially from an infusion of a particular coach's personality/playing style, like (as I remember it, at least) Lance settled down and got tough after Nate Dogg came on staff? Is there a player whom you think you especially likely to improve in this way?

For example, one candidate I see is Miles. By all accounts, Miles has gained a great deal of strength to go with his already-considerable athletic ability. I think he is already poised to improve greatly after a good off-season and with more playing time this season. Miles' strength and leaping ability, coupled with Wojo's hard-nosed tenacity? Rebounding machine. After seeing Zoo's commitment to rebounding last season and knowing our need to replace lost rebounds, maybe Wojo really gets in Miles' ear and he takes a little of the Wojo fire to heart?

[uh_no]

Just a nit to pick: There have been threads on these boards debating what is "our most likely starting line-up." I think w/o question we will see quite a bit of experimentation, as K is inclined to do, in the first 2+ months to ID optimal combinations. Certainly one very possible starting line-up, if K opts to with "the 5 most talented players" route, would give us starters at 6'10", 6'8", 6'3", 6'2", 6'1". This one certainly would have great speed overall, and would be terrific at D/pressing, but would be a be challenged for height matchups and rebounding in general. That said, it would also create many impossible match-up issues for many opponents at the other end... (think Villanova in 2008-2009 as they trashed us in the NCAAT).

But to the main thread theme: I see our biggest weaknesses, er, opportunities to improve, would be: (1) Lack of athletic/quick wings with any size; (2) Lack of interior strength and depth (these two compound on each other as weaker interior players are more likely to to get pushed around and then foul); (3) Relative inexperience and chemistry questions. (Any time you have 3 new starters, several new roles for returnees, and a frosh PG, this is going to get brought up. Fortunately, most of these will be overcome as the season moves along, and likely non-issues by March.) :confused:


As another poster pointed out, when was the last time a team that lost 3 of the 5 starters, and 40% of its scoring and most of the rebounding, ever thought of as preseason #1??? That is pretty exciting. :D




:cool:

Just a word on starting lineups: heard K speak saturday, kyle kyrie and nolan will start, but other than that its far from set yet....K pointed out the other great talents (plumlees kelly seth andre) and said the lineup WILL be changing....so what we see at CTC and in the exhibitions...and likely early season will not necessarily be permanent....

K also made it clear that just like when you lose you ave to put it behind you, we won ad we have to put it behind us.....kyrie and seth tyler and john didn't win a national title last year.....the 2010 devils did....this is a new team with some new faces, and a couple old ones....they don't care that duke has won 4 national championships....they want 1....this year....and after CTC last year needs to be forgotten because its this year....

He also indicated hat defense is going to be biggest weakness....he says we have the best shooting team in the country and one of the deepest in the country, especially in the backcourt

if i reember any other points he hi upon i'll mention them

[Kedsy]

Unfortunately I can't come up with specific links to articles or posts, but I seem to remember there being some talk about how Lance really began to mature as a player (less frantic, more disciplined and focused, tougher) right about the time Nate James came on staff. I remember at least some of this improvement being attributed to Nate Dogg's presence and tutelage. Again, this is from my more than fallible memory, so I'd welcome any correction, Kedsy.

Maybe I'll broaden and clarify my question. Question for this season: is there a player who could benefit especially from an infusion of a particular coach's personality/playing style, like (as I remember it, at least) Lance settled down and got tough after Nate Dogg came on staff? Is there a player whom you think you especially likely to improve in this way?

For example, one candidate I see is Miles. By all accounts, Miles has gained a great deal of strength to go with his already-considerable athletic ability. I think he is already poised to improve greatly after a good off-season and with more playing time this season. Miles' strength and leaping ability, coupled with Wojo's hard-nosed tenacity? Rebounding machine. After seeing Zoo's commitment to rebounding last season and knowing our need to replace lost rebounds, maybe Wojo really gets in Miles' ear and he takes a little of the Wojo fire to heart?

I have no idea, really, although I'd never heard that Lance was anybody's disciple, much less Nate's, who didn't start coaching until Lance was an upperclassman. I had the impression that, as a senior, Lance began to realize what he needed to do and then went out and did it. Was that a product of his coaching? To an extent, I suppose, but I think it was more a maturity stemming from four years in Coach K's system.

Without having any inside info, I imagine this idea of coaches imprinting themselves on players is more complex than what happens in real life. I believe Z benefited from Wojo's coaching, certainly, but I also think his tenacity and selfless playing personality was Zoubek's own, rather than something he assimilated from Wojo or any of the other coaches. Although, again, I have no firsthand knowledge.

[gam7]

And '99?

The '99 team wasn't overconfident. It was a hungry team - we hadn't been to a final four for a while before that and the way '98 ended was really, really painful. Uconn was a good, hungry team too. Iirc, that uconn team only had two losses and Richard Hamilton and another starter were out for both of them.

[ACCBBallFan]

Just a word on starting lineups: heard K speak saturday, kyle kyrie and nolan will start, but other than that its far from set yet....K pointed out the other great talents (plumlees kelly seth andre) and said the lineup WILL be changing....so what we see at CTC and in the exhibitions...and likely early season will not necessarily be permanent....

K also made it clear that just like when you lose you ave to put it behind you, we won ad we have to put it behind us.....kyrie and seth tyler and john didn't win a national title last year.....the 2010 devils did....this is a new team with some new faces, and a couple old ones....they don't care that duke has won 4 national championships....they want 1....this year....and after CTC last year needs to be forgotten because its this year....

He also indicated hat defense is going to be biggest weakness....he says we have the best shooting team in the country and one of the deepest in the country, especially in the backcourt

if i reember any other points he hi upon i'll mention them

Where did you hear coach K speak and is there a link or a transcript expected?

I agree that either Dre or Ryan, almost certainly not both, if they can play defense could suprise people who seem to either think both Plumlees start or Seth and a Plumlee starts.

Not necessarily versus most OOC foes except Mich St and CBE finals versus K-St/Zaga, I would expect Miles to be the 4th starter.

Particularly during OOC but even in ACC, any of Mason, Ryan, Seth or Dre could be the 5th starter, depending on the matchups.

Also, who starts is not the same as who finishes and many of these 8 guys may play close to starter minutes.

[stillcrazie]

Probably heard K speak at camp out. If anyone else heard it, I'd love to hear more about the speech.

[uh_no]

Probably heard K speak at camp out. If anyone else heard it, I'd love to hear more about the speech.

Problem was, many students were not as sober as we'd all expect of angelic duke students.....so two gems

Q: Coach K, you look thirsty....would you like a drink? (holds up fifth of vodka)
Q: (after K mentioned chicago) K, who would win in a fight, you or coach ditka?

honestly, he mostly talked about how the history of duke is irrelevent in the context of this year.....that the championship last year means nothing because we have a new team....talked about how we have to start from scratch building this teams moment.....they build up last year to have their moment....and that was last year's team's moment.....we have to build character to do something great....and that the fans need to be just as much a part of it as it was last year......

[Saratoga2]

Problem was, many students were not as sober as we'd all expect of angelic duke students.....so two gems

Q: Coach K, you look thirsty....would you like a drink? (holds up fifth of vodka)
Q: (after K mentioned chicago) K, who would win in a fight, you or coach ditka?

honestly, he mostly talked about how the history of duke is irrelevent in the context of this year.....that the championship last year means nothing because we have a new team....talked about how we have to start from scratch building this teams moment.....they build up last year to have their moment....and that was last year's team's moment.....we have to build character to do something great....and that the fans need to be just as much a part of it as it was last year......

I agree and Coack K is looking at the strengths of the players and coming up with a workable method for the kids he has to be successful. We will miss three very capable and experienced players from last year. While Zoubek wasn't the most mobile player, I think his size was intimidating, he got much better rebounding and his screens were effective. I loved Scheyer's game. He was smart, controlled the ball, made plays and defended very well. Then Lance who was the Charlie hustle of the team.

We will have a much quicker and deeper team this year, but will lack the degree of experience, the size of Zoubek, the ball control of Scheyer and the defense of Thomas. Despite that, we have a real chance of being a more dominant team. If Smith and Singler play at the level they were at during the final 10 games, Dawkins, Kelly, and the Plumlees all make significant improvements as expected, Seth Curry is likely to be very effective and three new and talented players. The sky is the limit.