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gumbomoop
09-23-2010, 08:16 PM
I am averse to starting new threads [and for good reason, some wag out there will note], but I want to comment on the discussion that's been occurring - semi-hijack-style - on the very hot AR thread.

There the conversation recently has turned from the latest news [or not] re AR, to a more general discussion of Duke-UNC in 2011-12 and a bit beyond.

We all know that Duke is consensus #1 preseason for '10-'11, even if in some circles/mags/blogs the Devils slip to #2 behind either MSU or Purdue. I think that, because of a combination of genuine skepticism and GTHC, a majority of Duke posters would not include UNC in pre-top-10 for this season. But I also think the emerging consensus among the national prognosticators puts UNC somewhere 8-10-ish.

So, we all here hope for repeat, then KI and/or AR-led 3-peat. UNC folks tend toward thinking that HB will stick around, and possibly Henson and Zeller, too, to deprive Duke of any 3-peat, and start their own little streak. And I'd have to agree with Kong [while slightly modifying his prediction] over on that other thread, that if any 2 of Henson/Zeller/Barnes stays for the 2011-12 season, they're pre-#1. Wait: unless KI and AR........

In any case, if somewhat less spectacularly than Calipari, both K and Roy sure seem to be recruiting well these days, so it seems quite likely that Duke and/or UNC will be preseason top 3 in 2011-12 and 2012-13.

roywhite
09-23-2010, 09:13 PM
Duke and UNC both good---it's really life as it should be. 82-50 games are enjoyable every so often, but epic battles that come down to the buzzer are what this rivalry is about. The two Hall of Fame head coaches have taken these programs to superpower status.

Crystal ball gazing more than one season out is just so hard in the modern environment, especially with the possible NBA defections from both teams.

If there is one key to watch, it will be at point guard for both programs. UNC is really out of its element when they lack the quick Felton/Lawson type floor leaders. Doesn't mean they won't be very good in the next few seasons, but I think they need a standout PG to really challenge for local (and hence national) supremacy. Edge to Duke for 2010-11, and I think the Blue Devils will still be on equal or better terms in 2011-12.

ACCBBallFan
09-23-2010, 09:51 PM
I'd have to agree with Kong [while slightly modifying his prediction] over on that other thread, that if any 2 of Henson/Zeller/Barnes stays for the 2011-12 season, they're pre-#1. Wait: unless KI and AR.........
Odds of Harrison Barnes and Kyrie Irving staying are slim.

So let me ask the question a little differently. If Barnes leaves and Tyler Zeller and Henson stay, can James McAdoo play the SF? Henson has proven he can't.

If not, Bullock or PJ Hairston could, but still missing a Final Four caliber PG.

Of course if ole Roy hits another home run on Austin Rivers, ridiculously talented, and then I agree with you and Kong top 3 pre-season for sure.

The flip side is if Knox, Graves, Barnes, Henson and Tyler Zeller all leave, bottom half in ACC, even with the talented McAdoo, P J Hairston, Bullock, Strickland, ... playing small ball.

Duke: A Dynasty
09-23-2010, 10:01 PM
Odds of Harrison Barnes and Kyrie Irving staying are slim.

So let me ask the question a little differently. If Barnes leaves and Tyler Zeller and Henson stay, can James McAdoo play the SF? Henson has proven he can't.

If not, Bullock or PJ Hairston could, but still missing a Final Four caliber PG.

Of course if ole Roy hits another home run on Austin Rivers, ridiculously talented, and then I agree with you and Kong top 3 pre-season for sure.

The flip side is if Knox, Graves, Barnes, Henson and Tyler Zeller all leave, bottom half in ACC, even with the talented McAdoo, P J Hairston, Bullock, Strickland, ... playing small ball.

Id hate to say but i dont think Barnes will leave after one year even if he is projected number 1. Just a bad feeling i have. And i agree unc should be good if any 2 return but what about State?? if leslie returns (even if he doesnt) they should have a really good team plus any new recruits. That frshmen pg they got is raw but extremely talented (amazing quickness and could jump out of a building).

G man
09-23-2010, 10:12 PM
Id hate to say but i dont think Barnes will leave after one year even if he is projected number 1. Just a bad feeling i have. And i agree unc should be good if any 2 return but what about State?? if leslie returns (even if he doesnt) they should have a really good team plus any new recruits. That frshmen pg they got is raw but extremely talented (amazing quickness and could jump out of a building).

Let me clarify I do not think that you are dumb, but I do think that anyone passing up being a top five pick is an idiot. Kyrie and Harrison are gone unless there is a holdout. It's just not safe. You just don't get that many chances at that kind of money. Who knows what is going to happen with injuries.

JBDuke
09-23-2010, 10:12 PM
Odds of Harrison Barnes and Kyrie Irving staying are slim.
...

Generally, I would agree with you on this point, based on their incoming reputations. But with the uncertainty in the NBA labor agreement, I don't know if this will be the case. We may have the unexpected treat of having college ball hold on to its superstars for an extra year in 2011-12.

Duke: A Dynasty
09-23-2010, 10:17 PM
Let me clarify I do not think that you are dumb, but I do think that anyone passing up being a top five pick is an idiot. Kyrie and Harrison are gone unless there is a holdout. It's just not safe. You just don't get that many chances at that kind of money. Who knows what is going to happen with injuries.

O i agree i thinks it dumb not to go as well im just saying you do get the occasional kid who wants to stay and unfortunatly i think its 50 50 stay or go as of right now.

Bob Green
09-23-2010, 10:18 PM
Id [sic] hate to say but i [sic] dont [sic] think Barnes will leave after one year even if he is projected number 1.

This is an absolutely ridiculous statement. Perhaps you should think before you post. Any college player who is projected as the number one pick in the NBA Draft would be foolish not to leave. When opportunity knocks, smart people answer the door. Harrison Barnes is a smart guy.

Duke: A Dynasty
09-23-2010, 10:28 PM
This is an absolutely ridiculous statement. Perhaps you should think before you post. Any college player who is projected as the number one pick in the NBA Draft would be foolish not to leave. When opportunity knocks, smart people answer the door. Harrison Barnes is a smart guy.

I did that is why i posted it. I AGREED******* it would be stupid not to go i just think there is a better chance than most that he will stay no matter how dumb we think it is. He has said it before that he wants to stay even though hes a lottery pick. Ill go back and try to find that article. Although he may change his mind and nothing they say ever seems to really last

Kedsy
09-23-2010, 11:06 PM
Kyrie and Harrison are gone unless there is a holdout.

I said this on another thread, but I don't believe Kyrie and HB will know whether or not there is going to be a "holdout" at the point when they have to make their decision.

The labor negotiations will most likely still be going on in April when they have to make their decision, and so they are going to have to either take a leap of faith that there won't be a lockout or play it safe and play another year in college. It's a much dicier proposition than "unless there is a [lockout]."

MChambers
09-24-2010, 08:13 AM
Let me clarify I do not think that you are dumb, but I do think that anyone passing up being a top five pick is an idiot. Kyrie and Harrison are gone unless there is a holdout. It's just not safe. You just don't get that many chances at that kind of money. Who knows what is going to happen with injuries.


This is an absolutely ridiculous statement. Perhaps you should think before you post. Any college player who is projected as the number one pick in the NBA Draft would be foolish not to leave. When opportunity knocks, smart people answer the door. Harrison Barnes is a smart guy.
I just don't agree with either of these quotes. I guess one of you is saying that Tim Duncan was an idiot and the other is saying that he was foolish. And what about JWill? Wouldn't he likely have been the #1 pick in 2001?

There's more to life than being a top five pick in the NBA draft.

OldPhiKap
09-24-2010, 09:15 AM
FWIW, I wish we could all stop with the speculation about when kids -- who have not played a single college game -- are going to leave. At least as it relates to our kids.

I know, it's the offseason and it's the internet. But I do not think it is helpful to build an expectation of short tenure. I imagine these kids read this board, too. KI could be the next Jason Williams -- who graduated in three years with a program tailored to his timeline.

Maybe some of you out there know these kids and have the benefit of talking to them about it. Me, all I can do is try to parse quotes printed without full context. Which is to say, I don't know squat.

Sorry, end of rant.


$.02

Indoor66
09-24-2010, 09:47 AM
FWIW, I wish we could all stop with the speculation about when kids -- who have not played a single college game -- are going to leave. At least as it relates to our kids.

I know, it's the offseason and it's the internet. But I do not think it is helpful to build an expectation of short tenure. I imagine these kids read this board, too. KI could be the next Jason Williams -- who graduated in three years with a program tailored to his timeline.

Maybe some of you out there know these kids and have the benefit of talking to them about it. Me, all I can do is try to parse quotes printed without full context. Which is to say, I don't know squat.

Sorry, end of rant.


$.02

I completely agree with your post. I find the constant reference to players who have never laced them up as a college player as a one and done to be PURE speculation. There are very few one and done players. Even fewer deserve to be a one and done.

There are always a couple of, or even several, players who have the requisite skill, physical maturity and emotional maturity to be a one and done. That said, the pool is very small.

I hark back to Oden who played at Ohio State. He was the next coming of the dominant center. IMO, he was a nice, even good, player, but he was derailed by injury and limitations. All of these kids that are 16, 17, and 18 years old still have a lot of maturing to do. This later maturing process is actually, IMO, the determinative factor in their athletic success. For every Labron there is a Burgess or other who was a guaranteed success and, somehow, didn't develop.

As Coach K says, each must run their own race. I think we should enjoy watching the race and not get total hung up on the result before the gun goes off.

sandinmyshoes
09-24-2010, 09:50 AM
It looks like we're in for some slugfests the next few years. Then again, what happened to UNC last year should serve as a warning for all of us. Less than two years ago they were on top of the college basketball world with two championships in four years and excellent rated recruiting classes. Throw in NBA defections and injuries and the bottom fell out big time.

Of course, both schools have basketball programs that have too much history and "brand" appeal to make to make long term suckage likely for either.

Lord Ash
09-24-2010, 10:04 AM
As already mentioned, players will have to declare before any NBA labor talks reach a serious, end-point level. They may have an IDEA what will happen, but...

Also, it is extremely rare for guys projected in the Top 5 (or even as the top overall pick) to come back. Sure, especially at places like Duke and Carolina, it has happened a few times, but overall, it is rare.

If we are to discuss the future of the programs and NOT spend all day debating who will or who will not return, it might be best to figure that the top five guys (in this case Kyrie and Harrison) are gone and talk from there. Could Zeller and/or Henson go? Sure. Could Mason go? Sure. But I think we should at least start a rational discussion assuming Harrison and Kyrie will not be here.

Lord Ash
09-24-2010, 10:06 AM
Duke and UNC both good---it's really life as it should be. 82-50 games are enjoyable every so often, but epic battles that come down to the buzzer are what this rivalry is about.

In the spirit of this, I just have to share the results from a recent Duke/UNC XBOX game I played... hope it can fill some of that basketball void!:)

http://img825.imageshack.us/img825/6787/espn2h.jpg

COYS
09-24-2010, 10:44 AM
In the spirit of this, I just have to share the results from a recent Duke/UNC XBOX game I played... hope it can fill some of that basketball void!:)

http://img825.imageshack.us/img825/6787/espn2h.jpg

Having been out of the video gaming world for a while, can I just say "Wow!" That write up is incredibly realistic. Technology is awesome.

ACCBBallFan
09-24-2010, 12:11 PM
While the article is somewhat realistic, a few factual errors. Neither would be 2-1 in ACC when they play which is always during rivalry week after about 7 or more games.

This year the final matchup is in Chapel Hill for Graves and Knox's senior night and there is no ensuing trip to face Wake except inthe ACC tourney.

Duke: A Dynasty
09-24-2010, 12:18 PM
While the article is somewhat realistic, a few factual errors. Neither would be 2-1 in ACC when they play which is always during rivalry week after about 7 or more games.

This year the final matchup is in Chapel Hill for Graves and Knox's senior night and there is no ensuing trip to face Wake except inthe ACC tourney.

hes been doing this in another thread. in there he says this is just a little thing hes doing. 6 games i think Duke plays unc, wake, and state 2 times (home and away) thats why the teams are 2-1 and played each other at the time they did. Not based on a real schedule

InSpades
09-24-2010, 12:33 PM
But I also think the emerging consensus among the national prognosticators puts UNC somewhere 8-10-ish.


I'm curious what the basis for this consensus would be... This is a team that didn't come close to making the NCAA tournament (arguably should have been left out of the NIT tournament based solely on results). They lost their 2 best offensive players as well as their best defensive player. Additionally they lost 2 players to transfer who would have provided most of their depth up front. I'm sure Harrison Barnes is going to be great... Henson and Zeller both have real potential... but right now UNC is a bunch of question marks. Do they have potential to be a top 10 team? Of course. Would they be pre-season top 10 if they weren't UNC? No way.

G man
09-24-2010, 12:35 PM
I just don't agree with either of these quotes. I guess one of you is saying that Tim Duncan was an idiot and the other is saying that he was foolish. And what about JWill? Wouldn't he likely have been the #1 pick in 2001?

There's more to life than being a top five pick in the NBA draft.

Maybe I should rephrase I would not say that money is not the end all of everything, but it sure makes life a little easier. Family situation does come into play as well, but come on though you can find an example for what ever argument you want to make, but how can you pass up ten of millions of dollars. I just don't think it is wise. Who knows how many opportunities one will have to make that kind of cash.

kong123
09-24-2010, 12:36 PM
The only good news in that article for UNC fans is that Nolan will now probably miss the ACC Tourney! :cool:

NSDukeFan
09-24-2010, 01:12 PM
Duke and UNC both good---it's really life as it should be. 82-50 games are enjoyable every so often, but epic battles that come down to the buzzer are what this rivalry is about. The two Hall of Fame head coaches have taken these programs to superpower status.

Crystal ball gazing more than one season out is just so hard in the modern environment, especially with the possible NBA defections from both teams.

If there is one key to watch, it will be at point guard for both programs. UNC is really out of its element when they lack the quick Felton/Lawson type floor leaders. Doesn't mean they won't be very good in the next few seasons, but I think they need a standout PG to really challenge for local (and hence national) supremacy. Edge to Duke for 2010-11, and I think the Blue Devils will still be on equal or better terms in 2011-12.

I have heard this discussed without reservation many times before on this board. I wonder if it is something that should be said definitively at this point. Since Roy has been coaching, there have been two years where neither Felton nor Lawson have been the PG. Both those years have been in years after championships where Carolina lost most of their top players. The next years (with a slower PG? Frasor in 2006 and Drew last year) the teams have comparatively struggled.

I realize that Roy didn't show much talent for changing his system to fit his personnel last year, but is it correct to say that Carolina under Roy can't succeed without a lightning quick point guard? The two dips they have had happened when they did not have lightning quick point guards, but they also had a definite decrease in talent. You could argue that last year's team had quite a bit of talent, but not very much experienced talent. This year may give us a better idea as they seem to have more talent at some other positions (though they are still young) and this would be the third year under Roy that neither Lawson nor Felton have been at PG. Two data points do not equal a trend, but three may be the start of one. Is this something that after being repeated over and over becomes true in our minds more than in actuality?

MChambers
09-24-2010, 01:17 PM
I have heard this discussed without reservation many times before on this board. I wonder if it is something that should be said definitively at this point. Since Roy has been coaching, there have been two years where either Felton or Lawson have not been the PG. Both those years have been in years after championships where Carolina lost most of their top players. The next years (with a slower PG? Frasor in 2006 and Drew last year) the teams have comparatively struggled.

I realize that Roy didn't show much talent for changing his system to fit his personnel last year, but is it correct to say that Carolina under Roy can't succeed without a lightning quick point guard? The two dips they have had happened when they did not have lightning quick point guards, but they also had a definite decrease in talent. You could argue that last year's team had quite a bit of talent, but not very much experienced talent. This year may give us a better idea as they seem to have more talent at some other positions (though they are still young) and this would be the third year under Roy that neither Lawson nor Felton have been at PG. Two data points do not equal a trend, but three may be the start of one. Is this something that after being repeated over and over becomes true in our minds more than in actuality?
With Frasor, UNC didn't really struggle. They were a very young team and actually outperformed expectations.

Also, it's not like Kansas always had lightning quick points. Kirk Hinrich, for example, isn't really quick enough to be a true NBA point, but Kansas did pretty well when he was there.

Duke09
09-24-2010, 02:39 PM
Also, it's not like Kansas always had lightning quick points. Kirk Hinrich, for example, isn't really quick enough to be a true NBA point, but Kansas did pretty well when he was there.[/QUOTE]

But Kirk was among the best PG in the country that year, given that he was the first PG drafted at 7th overall, above where Lawson was. Felton was drafted 5th.

pfrduke
09-24-2010, 02:51 PM
But Kirk was among the best PG in the country that year, given that he was the first PG drafted at 7th overall, above where Lawson was. Felton was drafted 5th.

Right, but that just confirms the notion that "Roy w/o lightning quick guard = disappointing season" is a fallacy. LDII is much quicker than Hinrich - I think he often tries to play too quick for his own good (in part because Roy was slow to adapt the system to suit his pg's skillset) - but certainly nowhere near as good.

It's clear that without dominant college point guards, Roy's teams have not been as good as when they had dominant college point guards. But that's such an unremarkable point that it barely warrants mentioning.

MChambers
09-24-2010, 02:52 PM
Also, it's not like Kansas always had lightning quick points. Kirk Hinrich, for example, isn't really quick enough to be a true NBA point, but Kansas did pretty well when he was there.

But Kirk was among the best PG in the country that year, given that he was the first PG drafted at 7th overall, above where Lawson was. Felton was drafted 5th.[/QUOTE]

I was just responding to a poster who was asserting that Ol' Roy needed a lightning quick point guard for his system. I don't think it's true. (I wish it was, however.)

I wasn't trying to knock Hinrich. He's a very good player.

roywhite
09-24-2010, 03:22 PM
Right, but that just confirms the notion that "Roy w/o lightning quick guard = disappointing season" is a fallacy. LDII is much quicker than Hinrich - I think he often tries to play too quick for his own good (in part because Roy was slow to adapt the system to suit his pg's skillset) - but certainly nowhere near as good.

It's clear that without dominant college point guards, Roy's teams have not been as good as when they had dominant college point guards. But that's such an unremarkable point that it barely warrants mentioning.

Well, maybe.

What was UNC last year without a dominant college point guard? A huge disappointment, one that was widely considered to have underachieved.

With all due respect to Jon Scheyer, I would not call him a "dominant college point guard". Yet, what was Duke last year without a dominant college point guard? National Champions.

Seems to me there is a significant difference in the ability of Duke under Coach K and UNC under Ole Roy to adjust to the talent on hand. So, I contend, as I did in an earlier post, that the PG situation at UNC is not only important, it's critical to their success.

NSDukeFan
09-24-2010, 03:35 PM
Well, maybe.

What was UNC last year without a dominant college point guard? A huge disappointment, one that was widely considered to have underachieved.

With all due respect to Jon Scheyer, I would not call him a "dominant college point guard". Yet, what was Duke last year without a dominant college point guard? National Champions.

Seems to me there is a significant difference in the ability of Duke under Coach K and UNC under Ole Roy to adjust to the talent on hand. So, I contend, as I did in an earlier post, that the PG situation at UNC is not only important, it's critical to their success.

I agree that Duke under coach K may be able to adjust better to the talent on hand than UNC under Roy (not White.) But, I don't think coach K did a great job because the team last year won with Scheyer (not a dominant college point guard) as its lead offensive guard. Jon was one of the three or four best lead offensive guards in the country last year, conservatively IMO.

I think coach K did a great job last year because of his decision to base his offense around his three star players and get them quality shots every time, slow the pace down so he could play the big 3 huge minutes, condense the defense to limit penetration rather than forcing turnovers, using Z's incredible offensive rebounding to set up 3 point shots, concentrating on maximizing possessions, etc.

UNC was indeed a huge disappointment last year and did not have a dominant point guard. I agree with those two points, but am not convinced of the cause and effect, for some of the reasons I, and other posters have mentioned.

thenameisbond
09-24-2010, 04:05 PM
While the article is somewhat realistic, a few factual errors. Neither would be 2-1 in ACC when they play which is always during rivalry week after about 7 or more games.

This year the final matchup is in Chapel Hill for Graves and Knox's senior night and there is no ensuing trip to face Wake except inthe ACC tourney.

Another glaring error was Roy's judicious use of a timeout. He always hoards them for the final 90 seconds.:p

Troublemaker
09-24-2010, 04:45 PM
I'm curious what the basis for this consensus would be... This is a team that didn't come close to making the NCAA tournament (arguably should have been left out of the NIT tournament based solely on results). They lost their 2 best offensive players as well as their best defensive player. Additionally they lost 2 players to transfer who would have provided most of their depth up front. I'm sure Harrison Barnes is going to be great... Henson and Zeller both have real potential... but right now UNC is a bunch of question marks. Do they have potential to be a top 10 team? Of course. Would they be pre-season top 10 if they weren't UNC? No way.

You're right. If someone has projected UNC as top 10, it is based purely on talent and not previous accomplishments as a team. But a lot of raw talent they DO have, perhaps top 5 in the country in raw talent. I wouldn't be shocked, for example, if NBA scouts preferred Zeller over Miles, Henson over Mason, Barnes over Singler, and Bullock over Smith, or possibly 4 out of 5 starting positions. Now, obviously, in some of those cases the edge in preference (if it even exists) would be very small, and in some cases the Duke player's experience makes him the much better player in the comparison, and I would expect Duke to be the better team, of course. Just saying, this UNC team is very talented and we should have high expectations for them. How disgusted would we be if, in March, Roy Williams wins National Coach of the Year for building a top 15 team out of all this talent? I think I personally would be pretty disgusted, so I'm going to do my part in keeping some reasonable expectations for them. A nice bounce-back season for the Heels should be expected.

As for the near-term comparison. Duke has the edge this season. The edge next season depends on the Rivers decision, imo. And beyond that, it's hard to say.

BD80
09-24-2010, 05:28 PM
... Which is to say, I don't know squat. ...

BUT OL' ROY DOES!!!

http://tarheelmania.files.wordpress.com/2007/02/roy-williams.jpg

Sorry, but I just love this pic. He looks like Gollum ranting that someone stole his shiny bauble (AR?). And as the start of practice nears, we are getting nearer the time to beat ol' roy and his minions back into the depths of chapel hell.

OldPhiKap
09-24-2010, 05:35 PM
BUT OL' ROY DOES!!!

http://tarheelmania.files.wordpress.com/2007/02/roy-williams.jpg

Sorry, but I just love this pic. He looks like Gollum ranting that someone stole his shiny bauble (AR?). And as the start of practice nears, we are getting nearer the time to beat ol' roy and his minions back into the depths of chapel hell.

Too funny, BD. It always reminds me of a scene from Austin Powers -- show it who's boss, Roy!

Duke of Nashville
09-24-2010, 05:43 PM
Too funny, BD. It always reminds me of a scene from Austin Powers -- show it who's boss, Roy!

The gentleman behind Roy would agree that something may be a funk...in his trunk.

DevilHorns
09-24-2010, 05:46 PM
BUT OL' ROY DOES!!!

Sorry, but I just love this pic. He looks like Gollum ranting that someone stole his shiny bauble (AR?). And as the start of practice nears, we are getting nearer the time to beat ol' roy and his minions back into the depths of chapel hell.

http://i.usatoday.net/sports/gallery/2010/04/01/s100401_01nit-pg-horizontal.JPG "NIT trophy": http://www.midwestsportsfans.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/roy-williams.jpg ::
https://park-204.wikispaces.com/file/view/the-lord-of-the-rings_-the-one-ring-3d-screensaver.jpg/33412981/the-lord-of-the-rings_-the-one-ring-3d-screensaver.jpg : http://www.starstore.com/acatalog/gollum_standee-01.jpg