Survivor: Nicaragua

[JasonEvans]

Whew, I almost missed last night's episode because I thought it started next week. Luckily, one of my kids (who are Survivor addicts) alerted me.

The first episodes are always about beginning to get to know folks, so I won't talk much strategy at this point.

I like the new Medallion of Power that gives one tribe a leg up on the other tribe in one challenge but then reverts to the other tribe. I am interested in seeing how much it will come into play. I suspect the older tribe will use it as soon as there is a more physical challenge where they feel they simply cannot compete with the youngsters. I bet the youngsters do not use it at all once they get it unless they somehow find themselves in desperate need of a challenge win. They feel (perhaps correctly) that they have an advantage on the older tribe and there is no reason for them to use the Medallion and give it back to the older tribe so long as they feel they have a better than average chance of winning while holding onto it. We shall see.

http://cdn.sheknows.com/realitytvmagazine/2010/08/survivor-nicaragua-meet-the-20-new-castaways.jpg

I suspect we will get a tribal shuffle in a couple episodes. It is really unfair to have old, weak folks going up against young, fit folks all the time and it is going to get tiresome. The game started with 20 players... I suspect we will get a shuffle at around 16 players left, though I may be wrong and maybe the old folks will win a bunch of challenges allowing the show to keep the old-vs-young thing all the way up to the merge... Not likely!

I was surprised at how much the older tribe seemed to be divided and angry at Jimmy Johnson. Several of the old men must be Redskin fans or something because they immediately disliked JJ. I liked Jimmy's idea of saying, "I have no chance to win the million, so keep me around." He is right about that and I do not know why his tribe does not see it. The dude has made tens of millions of dollars in his coaching carer. No way he wins the final prize! Plus, he was a head football coach in the NFL -- you know he is going to be smart, strategic, calm, a good leader, and able to think on his feet. The idea that they even considered voting him off first sends me some very bad vibes about the older tribe. I have already decided I really dislike Jimmy T, by the way. His rant and "I want to be heard on this," really put him in a bad place.

Oh, I also knew there was no way Jimmy Johnson was going home last night because they show him in the opening credits competing in a challenge with mud all over his face. We did not have a mud challenge last night so he has to stick around long enough to compete in one. Until we get a mud challenge, you know that Jimmy J is safe. It did look like we get a mud challenge next week, by the way.

http://www.latimes.com/media/photo/2010-09/56162838.jpg

Lastly, has there ever been a more lame tribal council appeal than the pathetic stuff that Wendy Jo pulled out last night? I am sure they had already decided to boot her, but she only cemented things further with her incoherent rambling at tribal council. Wow!

--Jason "the young tribe is a bit too cocky right now-- and I can already tell that Na'onka is bad news-- she will be in someone's face in at least half of the episodes" Evans

[Blue in the Face]

They seem to have found an unusually moronic crop of young men this time around.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

Nice pickup on the mud challenge re:JJ. I finally watched the episode this morning and I was gladd JJ stayed at least one more week.

Oh. Kelly#1 is a carolina med school student, but she is Duke undergrad and avowed Duke fan! :cool: I hope the tribe doesn't vote her out early so she won't win by sympathy vote. as was stated by one of her teammates. Go Kelly!

[mkirsh]

Lastly, has there ever been a more lame tribal council appeal than the pathetic stuff that Wendy Jo pulled out last night? I am sure they had already decided to boot her, but she only cemented things further with her incoherent rambling at tribal council. Wow!


Holy crap, I thought Wendy Jo's tribal council performance last week was dumb, but Shannon's crazy Kenny Powers outburst was just unreal. I thought he was going to light someone on fire with his torch on the way out.

[JasonEvans]

Holy crap, I thought Wendy Jo's tribal council performance last week was dumb, but Shannon's crazy Kenny Powers outburst was just unreal. I thought he was going to light someone on fire with his torch on the way out.

The best part was watching Fabio shakes his head and saying, "shut up dude!" It was like Shannon wanted to get voted out. I said to my family, "he is doing his best to flip potential swing voters... away from him." In fact, I am sure it was going to be 6-4 or maybe 5-5 until he went insane and several folks decided to vote against him, making it a 7-3 vote out. True lunatic!

Ohmygod, is Holly a lunatic or what? She stole Dan's alligator shoes, threw them in the ocean, and then admitted it!?!?! WOW! Interestingly, she may actually last a bit because of that as people may now find her trustworthy. Jimmy T is also certifiably crazy. I cannot see him lasting very long. He is gonna blow up and everyone will abandon him.

I hate, hate, hate Naonka. She has too much 'tude and is absurdly confrontational. I am praying she gets voted off soon, but I don't think I will get my wish.

The medallion of power is now in the hands of the younger tribe. I see no way they use it any time soon. They will be confident they can beat the old tribe in a challenge without the advantage and they will not want to give it back to the older tribe. It will be interesting to see if there is still a medallion of power after the merge to give some individuals a leg up on challenges. I think the medallion is not going to get moved around very much any more now that the youngsters have it.

It is hard for me to see the older tribe winning many challenges. They don't seem smart enough to outwit the youngsters and they are at an extreme physical disadvantage. I think the show will have to shuffle the tribes or we will just see a parade of ousted older folks... will will soon include Jimmy Johnson.

--Jason "so far, a fairly decent season -- but it is early" Evans

[cf-62]

so far it looks like Jimmie Johnson is definitely a master motivator.

[JasonEvans]

I think the show was hiding how weak Jimmy Johnson really was to add suspense to what was an easy decision by the tribe.

It is clear to me after that vote that JJ was struggling at even routine stuff in the game and everyone knew he would not be any help at challenges that required even the smallest of physical ability. There is just no way all those folks went along with voting him out unless they knew for a fact that he could not help them any more.

I am not a fan of Jimmy T. He's full of himself and acts like a jerk. He is gonna get on people's nerves fast! That said, I don't get how they were doing that bean bag tossing challenge. I don't understand the logic in only having one person do it as it was clear running back and forth to pick up the bean bags was wearing Tyrone out. And why was Jimmy J the only one who could tell them to put someone in or out of the contest? Very strange.

As I mentioned a week ago, there is no way the younger tribe uses the medallion of power any time soon. They figure they have better than a 50-50 shot of winning an even challenge so they are going to hold onto the medallion to make sure the older tribe cannot get it. The only way the medallion comes back into play is if the younger tribe inexplicably goes on a losing streak or (and I think this is likely) they do a tribal swap in the next week or two and the tribes seem to be more evenly matched coming out of it.

As an aside, I don't think I could hate Naonka any more than I do. Could she be doing anything more to perpetrate the "bit@#^, black, ghetto woman" stereotype? It is just offensive and horrible to watch. And now the previews for next week say that she is going to go off even more. And her target is a woman who is crippled!?!?! Are you serious!??! Does she realize that you have to have friends on the jury to win this thing?!?!

The sad part is I doubt she gets voted off any time soon because she is in the dominant alliance. I will say that if she was in my alliance, I would be looking to replace her as quickly as possible. I think she is really unstable and could blow up your alliance at any time.

--Jason "http://www.cbs.com/primetime/survivor/photos/Survivor_Nicaragua_Episode_3/99280_D08782.display.jpg" Evans

[AtlBluRew]

I really hate Naonka too and I'm hoping that she's such a prominent character in the editing early on because she gets voted out soon. She's been really clear about her contempt for other tribe members, and she's a shoe-in for "bad guys all-stars" in the future.

I thought that the bean bag tossing by one person made sense. It allowed the tosser to develop a rhythm. Notice that the younger tribe did the same thing.

[JasonEvans]

I thought that the bean bag tossing by one person made sense. It allowed the tosser to develop a rhythm. Notice that the younger tribe did the same thing.

Yeah, true But at some point the tosser gets tired-- especially if they are an older person. They should have switched sooner, though I don't think it would have really mattered. I would have liked it if Jimmy T had failed repeatedly instead of getting one and being able to say, "I woulda won if you had put me in sooner!"

-Jason "is it just me or are there a lot of folks to root against this season?" Evans

[riverside6]

The only way the medallion comes back into play is if the younger tribe inexplicably goes on a losing streak or (and I think this is likely) they do a tribal swap in the next week or two and the tribes seem to be more evenly matched coming out of it.

It would be interesting to see with a tribal swap how they decide which tribe gets the medallion, possibly the winner of the next challenge, but I think they could do something better than that.

[mr. synellinden]

It would be interesting to see with a tribal swap how they decide which tribe gets the medallion, possibly the winner of the next challenge, but I think they could do something better than that.

They could do a reward challenge with the medallion as a reward.

On a separate note, I seem to say this every season, but what is wrong with these people? Where do they find them? The older tribe is filled with oddballs and nutty people. Even Jill, who seems the most rational and intelligent - why did she just give Marty the idol? Jimmy T. and Marty can't control their egos. I guarantee if they stay around long enough, both of them are going to have some sort of meltdown. The first person voted out - Wendy, was just plain looney tunes. Holly we know is even more batty than her. And Naonka - oh boy - I can only agree with what JE wrote about her and what Probst wrote in his blog. It seems like Survivor has had several cast members who perpetuate the angry black man/woman stereotype, but she may be the worst. Her behavior and comments have been horrible and disturbing. I wonder if the producers think that people want to see that, or if it's a good thing in general.

As of now, there a few people I consider to be "favorites" to win: Benry, Yve, Jill. I could see Jane being a tag-a-long to the end but not being able to impress a jury enough. Of course it's way too early and there is likely to be a shakeup of some sort that turns everything on its head.

I do wish it was a little harder to find the idols - something that was promised for this season. So it took two clues instead of one (or 0 in Russell's case).

[JasonEvans]

I do wish it was a little harder to find the idols - something that was promised for this season. So it took two clues instead of one (or 0 in Russell's case).

Idols create uncertainty and surprises in the game. It is in the show's interest to make them reasonably easy to find.

Speaking of which, I have a question, why did Naonka get to own the idol clue? If she and someone else saw it at the same time and both grabbed for it, why does Naonka get to wrestle it away and then storm off into the woods with it? Are you telling me that the rest of the tribe will not call her out for that? I guess being in the dominant alliance means getting to do whatever you want.

--Jason "I need to read Probst's blog-- where is it?" Evans

[mr. synellinden]

--Jason "I need to read Probst's blog-- where is it?" Evans

EW's web site. Here is the link (http://popwatch.ew.com/2010/09/30/jeff-probst-blogs-survivor-nicaragua-episode-3/)

I agree about the impact that idols have on the game, but do they both need to be in play in week 3?

[AtlBluRew]

EW's web site. Here is the link (http://popwatch.ew.com/2010/09/30/jeff-probst-blogs-survivor-nicaragua-episode-3/)

I agree about the impact that idols have on the game, but do they both need to be in play in week 3?


The blog is interesting, thanks for bringing that to our attention. I wish he had a blog that he wrote as the show was being produced and published as the corresponding episodes were aired.

[AtlBluRew]

Not much to say about this week's episode, huh? I'm glad Jimmy T is gone and disheartened that Naonka possesses an immunity idol. I'm hoping that next week's shakeup puts Naonka with a group that can lose a challenge or two and that they can blindside her and vote her out without putting the idol in play.

This week's episode seemed really short on character development. I'm still hoping that the obnoxious people getting the editing attention early on are getting it because they aren't long for the game. I also hope that when Naonka goes, Fabio gets his socks back!

[mkirsh]

Not much to say about this week's episode, huh? I'm glad Jimmy T is gone and disheartened that Naonka possesses an immunity idol. I'm hoping that next week's shakeup puts Naonka with a group that can lose a challenge or two and that they can blindside her and vote her out without putting the idol in play.

This week's episode seemed really short on character development. I'm still hoping that the obnoxious people getting the editing attention early on are getting it because they aren't long for the game. I also hope that when Naonka goes, Fabio gets his socks back!

It's MUCH less interesting with JJ gone, can't say I like many of the remaining contestants other than maybe the two girls on the outs in the younger tribe.

Don't like the way Marty is playing the game - he chides his teammates for not being strategic, but then does strategically dumb things like not voting off the weakest members and trying to plan ahead for the merge instead of trying to win challenges. Looks like everything will blow up in his face when they change tribes next week, which is what generally happens when you look to far ahead in Survivor. (However, I did love that he kept calling Tyrone the leader just to infuriate Jimmy T).

I can't stand Naokna, she's just a terrible person, but if she lasts past the next few eliminations everyone will realize that she is the best person to take to the end and as it will be impossible for her to get a single jury vote. When she was arguing with Kelly B this past week, I thought Kelly B should have engaged with her to set her off, so that her alliance mates really got to see how crazy she is (plus would have made for good tv). Kelly B took the high road instead, too bad, I want to see someone stand up to her and not let her bully everyone around.

[JasonEvans]

Don't like the way Marty is playing the game - he chides his teammates for not being strategic, but then does strategically dumb things like not voting off the weakest members and trying to plan ahead for the merge instead of trying to win challenges. Looks like everything will blow up in his face when they change tribes next week, which is what generally happens when you look to far ahead in Survivor. (However, I did love that he kept calling Tyrone the leader just to infuriate Jimmy T).

I can't stand Naokna, she's just a terrible person, but if she lasts past the next few eliminations everyone will realize that she is the best person to take to the end and as it will be impossible for her to get a single jury vote. When she was arguing with Kelly B this past week, I thought Kelly B should have engaged with her to set her off, so that her alliance mates really got to see how crazy she is (plus would have made for good tv). Kelly B took the high road instead, too bad, I want to see someone stand up to her and not let her bully everyone around.

Marty is doing what so many failed players do, he is doing strategy for the end game instead of figuring out how to get there. People form these early alliances without examining which players can help them get to the end. It is lunacy! I cannot fathom why he has hitched his wagon to Dan. Makes zero sense!

As for Naonka, I was hoping Kelly B would pitch a fit. Heck, if I had been Kelly B, I probably would have slapped Naonka in the face or just hauled off and hit her. There are probably rules that prevent this kind of thing, but I might have risked being thrown out of the game to take that witch down! Grrrrr!

The foolish thing the young tribe has done is it has really alienated several members of the tribe. Kelly B, Allina, Fabio, and Benry know they are on the outside looking in at the alliance. Well, you can bet that as soon as they get a chance, they will happily defect to vote out Naonka and her cohorts who are making life so miserable for them. It could happen this coming week with the tribal switch or it could wait until there is a merge, but it seems likely to happen at some point.

I don't think Naonka will get all that far. She will last until the merge, but I see her getting booted soon after.

As for likeable characters, I think that as we get to know Benry better he will turn out to be a good guy. I like Tyrone and Fabio. I am sure there will be others we get to know better who will be worth rooting for... I hope ;)

-Jason "so far, a pretty mediocre season" Evans

[OZZIE4DUKE]

I thought Kelly B should have engaged with her to set her off, so that her alliance mates really got to see how crazy she is (plus would have made for good tv). Kelly B took the high road instead, too bad, I want to see someone stand up to her and not let her bully everyone around.
She is, after all, a Duke graduate!:cool:

[JasonEvans]

Isn't it interesting how they make someone seem like a good guy one week and deserving of a boot the next?

Tyrone was a hard-working player a week ago. This week, he was a egotistical control-freak. A week ago, I would have been sad to see him go. This week, the only pang I felt was that we might get to eliminate Naonka instead. I mean, did he actually say, "that's how we have been doing things over here so no reason to change it." Dude, your tribe has been getting its butt kicked so far. Maybe, instead of wanted to keep the control-freak atmosphere around camp, you should have considered asking the new/successful players what they thought. Good riddance, ya fool!

A couple things really struck me in this episode--

First, even when she is suffering, Naonka is neither likeable nor sympathetic. "Boo hoo, it is so cold! I want to quit." Are you kidding me? You are part of the dominant alliance that is controlling the game. You have an immunity idol. You are in prime position to at least make the final 5 and probably make the very end (because everyone will want to go up against you in the jury vote) and you want to quit because you are cold and wet?!?! It couldn't have been all that bad because no one else seemed to be suffering. Heck, we saw Chase comforting poor, cold Naonka and CHASE WAS NOT EVEN WEARING A SHIRT!!! I really wonder what her family and friends were thinking as they watched her display. She is a waste of air.

http://img2.timeinc.net/ew/dynamic/imgs/101013/NaOnka-Survivor-Nica_240.jpg

The second, and more important, think that struck me was the ease with which Benry and especially Allina allied themselves with Naonka and Chase. Wasn't Naonka sticking her finger in Allina's face just a week ago when Allina and Kelly B were desperately searching for the immunity idol to save their skins? Allina is #2 on the chopping block in LaFlor and yet she immediately allies with them the moment the tribes get shuffled? Does this woman have any sense of strategy at all?

And what about Holly? She bolted over to the other tribe as soon as she could. she knew there was no future for her with the rest of Espada. That tells me that we did not see some of the ways Marty and perhaps Tyrone and Jill were treating her. It also tells me that she is not at all strategic because she did not check to see what she could get from the LaFlor members before getting on their side. She may make the merge, but she will be taken out very soon after as LaFlor sets themselves up to go to the end.

Finally, I noticed something interesting as everyone's votes were revealed during the credits. When I saw a 6-2 vote tally, I assumed that it was the 4 LaFlors plus Holly and Yve who had taken out Tyrone. After all, Yve had seemed to be not nearly as tight with the Tyrone, Marty, Jill alliance as Dan was. We saw Dan plotting with them a lot and it was soooo important for Marty to protect Dan the past couple weeks.

But, when the votes were revealed, it was Dan who had voted with Holly and the LaFlors to take Tyrone out, leaving Yve as the person out-of-the-loop and primed to be the next boot from that tribe. WOW! I did not expect that. If he makes the merge, how will Dan explain that to Marty? Interesting development.

Finally, Marty's declaration that he has an idol was foolish. The way to play something like that is to pick a person or two from the other tribe who are in a position of power and influence and then reveal your idol to them in private. It makes them feel special and trusting of you and accomplishes your goal of making folks afraid to vote you out because you might play the idol and turn on them. Instead, Marty tells everyone in an arrogant way that makes them all dislike him. Sheesh! That dude is not nearly as smart as he thinks he is.

--Jason "the game continues to set up nicely for the LaFlors -- I think Chase and Sash are both primed to go very far" Evans

[AtlBluRew]

I was really surprised by Dan's vote too. I don't recall seeing him pow-wow with anyone about the votes, but my guess is that he saw the tide against Tyrone and didn't want to be on the chopping block for voting against that tide.

I was torn in this one about Naonka. I still want her gone. But it would have been unsatisfying to see her quit. I want to see her blindsided and voted out. So when xhe was whining about being cold (good point Jason about Chase who apparently wasn't at all cold), I was sort of pulling for her to hang in there.

[cf-62]

Question: After Jimmy Johnson is gone, why didn't they call Jimmy T just Jimmy?

[mkirsh]

Can't say I understand the new La Flor tribe's vote - they create this master plan to flush out Marty and the idol, and it actually works! But at the tiebreaker when they have the chance to vote him out with an idol in his pocket they vote out Kelly B?!? They let Marty and the idol stay to vote out someone who is not in either alliance? I'm confused.

Also can't understand why Dan is still around, I think it's too early to be thinking final 3. Yve should have said "look, I know it's either me or Dan, and who ever is safe this time is obviously going home next time, but why don't you keep me and I can help around camp and hopefully help us win a challange or 2 before you vote me out?" Might have bought her some more time. Telling Alina that she knows people in the other tribe well was a dumb move though.

Has Kelly purple had 1 second of screen time? I'm not sure she even speaks at this point, which means she probably gets pretty far in the show.

Also, as a Lost fan I can't get over the fact that there is a contestand named Benry. They should have found someone with the nickname Smokey to be on the show as well.

[JasonEvans]

Can't say I understand the new La Flor tribe's vote - they create this master plan to flush out Marty and the idol, and it actually works! But at the tiebreaker when they have the chance to vote him out with an idol in his pocket they vote out Kelly B?!? They let Marty and the idol stay to vote out someone who is not in either alliance? I'm confused.

I was befuddled at that too. If you were going to throw 3 votes to Marty but not vote him out on a tie, why bother to throw 3 votes his way in the first place? Why not just vote Kelly B out all along? The way they did it only tells Marty that he is not tight with them (they had him fooled for a while). Now he is going to be motivated to try to bust their alliance. It makes no sense.

I tell you what I learned from that vote though-- I learned that Brenda and Sash (and their alliance-mates) are not nearly as smart as they think they are. I think they planned nicely for the 3-3 tie, but they did nothing to plan what came next. The reason they took out Kelly B was that none of them knew who they were supposed to vote for after the tie happened.

I am not sure what to make of Brenda going off on Marty at Tribal Council. She did catch him a bit and ensured that Jane will never trust him, which is a good thing. But, we are getting to the part of the game where you need to start thinking about how you look to other contestants who may be the vote that could win you a million dollars. I do not know if Marty will make the jury, though he still has the idol and would seem to be a likely bet to last long enough be on the jury as a result, but Brenda went a long way toward ensuring she will not get Marty's vote last night (if Brenda makes it to the end).


Also can't understand why Dan is still around, I think it's too early to be thinking final 3. Yve should have said "look, I know it's either me or Dan, and who ever is safe this time is obviously going home next time, but why don't you keep me and I can help around camp and hopefully help us win a challange or 2 before you vote me out?" Might have bought her some more time. Telling Alina that she knows people in the other tribe well was a dumb move though.

The moment Yve said, "I am tight with those other guys so I can tell you what they are up to," I paused the DVR and my wife and I both said, "SHE JUST TOLD THEM TO VOTE HER OUT!!" We were cracking up at the stupidity there. Yve deserved to be sent home for that lone idiotic move.

I can see the logic in keeping Dan around as someone who is coasting and not playing hard and will not be a big threat. I am not sure it matters all that much as Dan will be the next vote out if they go back to tribal council, but the logic at least makes sense to me.

The only issue is that, one week after voting our strong teammate Tyrone, they again opted to keep a very weak challenge competitor in Dan. This has been a season of mostly puzzle/skill challenges with very little physical requirement to most of them. If that continues, keeping Dan is no big deal. If they do finally get a physical challenge, it will spell doom.


Has Kelly purple had 1 second of screen time? I'm not sure she even speaks at this point, which means she probably gets pretty far in the show.

The editing has been kinda strange this season. Kelly Purple has barely gotten any screen time. I have not gotten to know Benry very much so far either. I am not sure that it means they will last a long time in the game though. Yve had not gotten much attention from the cameras prior to last night. When we saw a lot of her early in the episode, my wife commented, "well, she is finally getting screen time-- I bet that means she gets the boot this week." The same kind of fate could befall Kelly Purple.

I will say that I doubt Kelly Purple makes the final 2 or 3. No way would someone who plays a prominent role a the very end of the game be so ignored early in the game. I am tempted to say that Benry is a no-finalist candidate for this reason too.


Also, as a Lost fan I can't get over the fact that there is a contestand named Benry. They should have found someone with the nickname Smokey to be on the show as well.

If only Benry was a scheming, secretive, trickster who managed to get people on his side. Instead, the guy who I think will fill that role is Sash.

One last note-- Fabio simply must last a long time on the show. Listening to him talk about Marty last night was high comedy. Fabio is one of the dumbest and most persuadable contestants in survivor history! It is going to be great fun to see him pulled back and forth once the merge happens!

--Jason "still a lackluster season so far" Evans

[AtlBluRew]

Brenda said she feared having a mad Kelly B around. Perhaps she figured that Kelly B could get someone into an alliance with her. I think she's scheming that Marty will play the idol next time and then be vulnerable in the vote after that, with no hope of increasing his alliance. She doesn't know yet that Fabio fell for the "grand master" line.

It was a poor choice. They should have dumped Marty when they had the chance.

I noticed that Naonka didn't react to the news that Kelly B had been voted out. Her victory dance must have been edited out.

[mr. synellinden]

I tell you what I learned from that vote though-- I learned that Brenda and Sash (and their alliance-mates) are not nearly as smart as they think they are. I think they planned nicely for the 3-3 tie, but they did nothing to plan what came next. The reason they took out Kelly B was that none of them knew who they were supposed to vote for after the tie happened.


Exactly. This was idiotic. It should have been very simple: If there is a tie, then we all switch our vote to Marty - we'll know that he hasn't played the idol, and we get him and his idol out. So Kelly B. is pissed. She goes next then. Or after Jill. I also agree that Marty on the jury is now a problem for Brenda.

[JasonEvans]

I also agree that Marty on the jury is now a problem for Brenda.

We currently have 13 players remaining. I am trying to recall, but I think the jury has always been made up of 9 players. If the show is angling for a 3-person final (which is what they have done more often than not over the past few years) then we have one more boot to go before the jury is in place.

Marty has an idol. So, even if his tribe loses the next challenge, he ain't going home. The way I see it, he is pretty much assured of being on the jury...

...and Brenda just made him an enemy for life. Sigh. These players are soooo stupid!

The guy sitting pretty right now is Sash-- he seems tight with the dominant alliance and has not been mean around camp or at tribal. He even has some sympathy from lunatic Shannon questioning him about being gay. If I had to pick one person to win it all right now, it would probably be Sash.

--Jason "waaaay too early for it, but I am going with Sash, Naonka, and Brenda as the final 3" Evans

[mr. synellinden]

Interesting Probst blog this week (http://popwatch.ew.com/2010/10/21/jeff-probst-blogs-survivor-nicaragua-episode-6/). He questions both eliminations and asks the same question about why not vote out Marty after the tie. He also offers some info on the starting number of contestants and the need for double eliminations.

[JustAFan]

OK, I have to say it. So far, this season has been rather disappointing. Few interesting characters and very little strategy. With the merge coming next week at 12 members, which is earlier than normal, CBS even recognized they were laying an egg, first with the Old vs Young (where the Young crushed the Old) and then with the mix-up (where very little interesting happened since). Is it because Heroes vs Villians was SO GOOD that anything after that season would be a letdown?

I just don't get a lot of the decisions that have been made. Why is Dan still in the game? His throw-the-ball PAUSE then-jump-into-the-water was pathetic! Why is Marty still in the game? They had him voted out last week WITH his idol and again this week WITHOUT his idol and yet he remains. Why is Naonka still in the game? (OK, this is just my personal preference to see her go. She is a disgusting human being. Period.)

So if Fabio was able to articulate some level of understanding Freudian psychology, is he really as "dumb" as he acts? Probably just good editing to make us think he is.

I guess the most interesting thing this season will be to see how long Sash and Brenda hold together before one tries to backstab the other. Very slight suspense there. Other than that, CBS is struggling to create drama where none exists.

[noyac]

Marty (great strategist) picked the only possible scenario where he could go home this week and somehow didn't.

Scenario 1--Marty plays Idol votes go as follows

Marty--3 played Idol
Jane--2 (Marty and Jill's votes)
Jill--2

at revote Jill goes home

Scenario 2--Marty plays Idol votes go as follows

Marty--3 played Idol
Jill--2
Jane--1 (Jill's vote)
whoever else on
tribe other than listed--1 (Marty's Vote)

Jill goes home but no revote. Marty may look bad in this scenario.

Scenario 3--What happened last night
Scenario 4--What happened last night but Marty they vote Marty off.


He had two ways to ensure that he stayed another week and one way to gamble to stay another week and all of the scenarios involved him without the Idol at the end of the day

IMO me he is ignorant and arrogant (deadly combination). I would have chose scenario #2 or #1 for sure

[mr. synellinden]

Marty has an idol. So, even if his tribe loses the next challenge, he ain't going home. The way I see it, he is pretty much assured of being on the jury...



You made the classic mistake of assuming these people are rational and intelligent. Marty almost made one of the most epic blunders in the history of the game. much of the early part of Survivor is about surviving and advancing. You never know when there is going to be shakeup, a merge, someone quits, a blown-up alliance. The game can change drastically at any moment. For Marty, the goal had to be get to the merge and hope for a miracle. It happens every season -- someone who appears to be on the outs can turn out to be a swing vote for an alliance, and then all of a sudden you're back in the game. He had to be thinking - use the idol, save myself, buy another few days (or more if your tribe wins the next immunity challenge) and hope for the merge and everything turning on its head.

The fact that turned out okay for him should not diminish what an idiotic play he made. Now the idol is in someone else's hands instead of back in play where he could find it again. Idiotic.

[AtlBluRew]

After weeks of pulling against multiple people, only to be disappointed that they are still in the game, I've decided to start pulling FOR Fabio, who (notwithstanding the professed familiarity with Freudian psychology) seems completely without guile. He's the anti-Russell. I think it would be a little funny if he won, and a complete waste of a million dollars. Go Fabio!


P.S.: I hate Naonka.

[noyac]

I've decided to start pulling FOR Fabio, Go Fabio!


P.S.: I hate Naonka.

I agree completely. When he peed in the pool I died laughing.

Oh ya I hate Naonka too, for awhile I thought she was just trying to act like a villan for the camera so she can get on another season of Survivor but I now realize she is just a terrible person.

[JasonEvans]

The fact that turned out okay for him should not diminish what an idiotic play he made. Now the idol is in someone else's hands instead of back in play where he could find it again. Idiotic.

Marty is truly a fool, I agree.

Unless he thinks he can trust Sash. Recall that Sash said he would give the idol back to Marty if they lost the next challenge. I am not sure why Sash promised this or what it means, but Marty may truly think he is getting the idol back. He may also think he has bought some trust from Sash, Brenda and others.

Personally, I think trusting Sash is lunacy in this case. Marty should have played the idol and taken his chances. He is in the exact same position as he was except he has given a valuable weapon to his opposition. Duuuuh. Stupid.

Can anyone explain why the dominant alliance still threw two votes to Marty? Did they not know that Marty had given the idol to Sash? I sense things may not be as open and honest among them as we have been led to believe.

By the way, last night's episode was like the Kelly Purplepalooza! I mean, she was on camera something like 3 or 4 times and I think she actually spoke once or twice. What a chatterbox!

It is going to be interesting to see what happens at the merge. Recall that Fabio, Alina, and Benry were on the outs with the other younger tribe folks before the tribes got split. It will be interesting to see if they just stick with Sash, Brenda, Kelly Purp, and Chase down to the final 7 and then each of them get picked off. I would hope they would be a bit smarter than that and try to form some kind of stronger alliance with Jane or someone else. I wonder if Chase still will feel as tight with his former alliance-mates after being away from them for a while.

-Jason "still a lousy season though... I heard a rumor about what they are doing next season and it is gonna be AWESOME!!!!" Evans

[DukeCrow]

After weeks of pulling against multiple people, only to be disappointed that they are still in the game, I've decided to start pulling FOR Fabio, who (notwithstanding the professed familiarity with Freudian psychology) seems completely without guile. He's the anti-Russell. I think it would be a little funny if he won, and a complete waste of a million dollars. Go Fabio!

I'm definitely pulling for Fabio, too.
If he navigates the merge correctly, I actually think he has a pretty good shot of winning it all.

[riverside6]

-Jason "still a lousy season though... I heard a rumor about what they are doing next season and it is gonna be AWESOME!!!!" Evans


You can't just walkoff on that comment, give us some details.

[JasonEvans]

You can't just walkoff on that comment, give us some details.

Pick your two favorite Survivors of all time... they are going to be leading two teams against each other next season and, at some point, the two superstars of the game will be joining the game and playing for real against each other.

-Jason "I am betting everyone picks the same two guys" Evans

[noyac]

Pick your two favorite Survivors of all time... they are going to be leading two teams against each other next season and, at some point, the two superstars of the game will be joining the game and playing for real against each other.

I thought they kind of did this already.

I think it was Survivor Guatemala. I am not talking about Survivor All-Stars I mean they had two previous contestants on teams of new cast members. If I remember they got voted off because they were "experts" and had too much experience.

[JasonEvans]

I thought they kind of did this already.

I think it was Survivor Guatemala. I am not talking about Survivor All-Stars I mean they had two previous contestants on teams of new cast members. If I remember they got voted off because they were "experts" and had too much experience.

Well, the two people they had that time sucked. They were each from a tribe that had been dominated totally in the game and was (to date) the first and only tribe to be completely eliminated before reaching the merge.

This time, we are talking about two of the greatest strategists and competitors in the show's history. These are two guys with a track record of great success and they are magnetic personalities.

Plus, my friend said they would each be immune from being voted out until the merge.

--Jason "are you even going to guess at who the tribal leaders are?" Evans

[OZZIE4DUKE]

Pick your two favorite Survivors of all time... they are going to be leading two teams against each other next season and, at some point, the two superstars of the game will be joining the game and playing for real against each other.

-Jason "I am betting everyone picks the same two guys" Evans
Rupert and Boston Rob?

[JasonEvans]

Rupert and Boston Rob?

Half right. Maybe I should have said two best, not two favorite.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

Rupert and Boston Rob?


Half right. Maybe I should have said two best, not two favorite.
Boston Rob and ... the oil guy who found all the idols?

[mr. synellinden]

Half right. Maybe I should have said two best, not two favorite.

Has to be Russell and Boston Rob.

Although, two best raises an interesting debate. Parvati, Tom, Terry and Yul are others I would throw into the mix.

[mkirsh]

Has to be Russell and Boston Rob.



They teased this idea at the all-star reunion show last season (http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?19325-Survivor-Return-Revenge-Redemption&p=408917#post408917)


That said, I think it will be hard to pull off - how will Rob and Russell interact with alliances if they have immunity? Will they be the first 2 voted off after the merge? Do they get to recruit their own teams of former survivors or of new cast members? Will keep it interesting at least, since this season has been a dud since Jimmy J has been booted

[JasonEvans]

They teased this idea at the all-star reunion show last season (http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?19325-Survivor-Return-Revenge-Redemption&p=408917#post408917)


That said, I think it will be hard to pull off - how will Rob and Russell interact with alliances if they have immunity? Will they be the first 2 voted off after the merge? Do they get to recruit their own teams of former survivors or of new cast members? Will keep it interesting at least, since this season has been a dud since Jimmy J has been booted

It is Rob and Russell. I am jazzed for it!

If they are always immune (up until the merge) but get votes at tribal council, it will force folks to form alliances with them.

I do think it is tinkering with the rules a bit much and feels like "gaming" the system. Russell and Rob are good enough players that they would likely figure out a way to survive on their own with automatic immunity. It might be interesting to put each of them on rival tribes with a bunch of folks who have not seen Survivor and do not know who Russell and Rob are.

-Jason "it will certainly be better than this season... blech!" Evans

[Blue in the Face]

I was really hoping Marty had pulled a throwback move and given Sash a fake idol, only to play his at tribal and screw over the alliance. I guess that would have been hard to pull off since he wouldn't know for sure if he needed to play it for himself or for Jill, but I was figuring they would vote unanimously for him, and really would have loved to see him turn the table.

[JasonEvans]

I was really hoping Marty had pulled a throwback move and given Sash a fake idol, only to play his at tribal and screw over the alliance. I guess that would have been hard to pull off since he wouldn't know for sure if he needed to play it for himself or for Jill, but I was figuring they would vote unanimously for him, and really would have loved to see him turn the table.

He had already pulled out the idol and shown it to them all a while ago, so making a fake one would be very tough. Also, he does not know it but Brenda and Naonka have already seen the idol when they dug it up so they know what it looks like.

Who has that other idol, Brenda or Naonka? I forget.

I expect that one of the things we are not shown is people looking for idols after they have been found. For example, I bet Jill and Marty spent some time digging around the other camp in the same place they found their idol in their other camp. We just were not shown it on TV.

Last note-- didn't Jill essentially give the idol to Marty? Why did he get to possess it and make strategic moves with it while Jill gets sent home? I still don't get why she just gave it to him when she was the one with the clues and she figured out where it was.

--Jason "even though this has been a relatively lame season, the ratings are fairly good so Mark Burnett won't mind" Evans

[mkirsh]

Marty (great strategist) picked the only possible scenario where he could go home this week and somehow didn't.

Scenario 1--Marty plays Idol votes go as follows

Marty--3 played Idol
Jane--2 (Marty and Jill's votes)
Jill--2

at revote Jill goes home

Scenario 2--Marty plays Idol votes go as follows

Marty--3 played Idol
Jill--2
Jane--1 (Jill's vote)
whoever else on
tribe other than listed--1 (Marty's Vote)

Jill goes home but no revote. Marty may look bad in this scenario.

Scenario 3--What happened last night
Scenario 4--What happened last night but Marty they vote Marty off.


He had two ways to ensure that he stayed another week and one way to gamble to stay another week and all of the scenarios involved him without the Idol at the end of the day

IMO me he is ignorant and arrogant (deadly combination). I would have chose scenario #2 or #1 for sure

Was thinking about this some more, and while I still agree that giving up the idol was pretty dumb and risky, if Marty somehow makes it to the merge, he has taken the target off his back and put it on Sash's, since everyone will know that Sash now has the idol. That way maybe Marty can cobble together enough old allies plus a few "we need to flush out the idol" people and a few "you are #5 in Sash's alliance, come be #3 in mine" people to blindside Sash and break him and Brenda up? Having the idol is great when noone knows about it, but when everyone knows it is very tricky to use it to its full advantage. (BTW, isn't the hidden immunity idol the best wrinkle survivor has ever introduced? It always creates such interesting strategic choices).

Naonka has the other one in her shoe, which has been completely under the radar the past few weeks but I assume will be a huge factor at some point in the game.

[noyac]

I think another thing that they just added yesterday (as far as I know) is the two individual immunity idols, one male and one female. There are some challenges that are too hard for a female to win and some where the guys stand little to no chance.

One that comes to mind for the guys having a hard time is the ones where they have to hold themselves up on a pole or something. Please don't take this the wrong way, I am not saying that it is impossible for the opposite sex to win just not likely.

[JasonEvans]

Alina... sigh... you are such an idiot!!

Did she actually take partial blame for Naonka stealing the food?!?! What was she thinking in doing that?!?!?! Now everyone gets to feel like someone was punished for the food theft without actually punishing the culprit who did it?!?! Are you kidding me?!?!

Of course, Alina's stupidity goes back to when the tribes first got swapped. She was in perfect position to team with the old folks and vote evil Naonka out of the game. After all, Naonka had been putting Alina down constantly at the old tribe and had made it clear that Alina was not part of Naonka's alliance. But, instead of taking Naonka out, Alina cozied up to her. Dumb, dumb, dumb... and Survivor knows what to do with dumb players.

On the other end of the spectrum is Marty, who was simply brilliant tonight with his comments about Jane. Promising his vote to her was amazing strategy and I have to wonder if Marty might actually be successful in painting Jane as a dangerous opponent and getting her voted out. Of course, Marty's bigger problem is that folks are going to take him out before they turn to Jane because Marty is seen as a brilliant strategist. While I think he may have really hurt Jane's chances tonight, I am not sure he helped himself all that much. As I look around at the players who are left, I have a hard time seeing where he can find the 4 or 5 allies he will need to engineer a shift in power in the game. Dan would come over to him in a heartbeat, but I don't think Holly would. His odds of turning any of the young core seem to be slim and none.

I would expect Marty to go next. At some point we will see the young Laflors turn on each other, but they will take out Marty first. I would expect Holly or Dan or maybe likable Jane to get the boot after Marty, but it all depends on when the young alliance turns on itself. If Benry and Fabio are smart, they will not look too dominant in challenges. You don't want folks scheming to get you out to keep you from going on a challenge run.

If I had to pick a final four right now, I am going with Sash, Brenda, Chase, and one of the old folks who latches onto them. I think Dan might be the one as he would be seen as not at all of a threat in challenges or to win the million.

Oh, one more thing, the only Kelly Purple sighting tonight was when she dropped her stick 5 seconds into the challenge. She may be the lamest and least interesting Survivor in history **

--Jason "** - worth noting, in Survivor Australia they had a lame and uninteresting Survivor who went a looong way -- her name was Amber and she came back to win Survivor All-Stars while also winning the heart of Boston Rob" Evans

[noyac]

Did Jeff even say that Alina was going to be a jury member after he told her she was voted off? I either missed it or he didn't say it.

[mkirsh]

I think it's going to be a fairly boring next few weeks. Right now we have one dominant alliance - Sash, Brenda, Naonka, Kelly, Chase, and Jane, and it seems that Benry, Fabio, and Holly are willing to go along with them also, leaving Marty and Dan on the outside. The only play this week was for Marty, Dan, Alina to try to convince Fabio, Benry and Holly that they are on the outside looking in and hope for a tie. Instead Marty and Alina went after each other, eliminating the chance to crack the top six for a while. I think Marty goes next (although I would never bet against him at this point, he has nine lives), then Dan, then Benry, Fabio, and Holly. The only interesting thing for me is at what point to Sash and Brenda turn on each other - I think it will happen, but not for a while, although Brenda could realize that she has Nay and Chase (and Chase has Jane) and she could blindside Sash early to get the idol out, but I think numbers need to be lower for her to try this.

Final 3 to me are Nayonka (she has no chance to win, everyone knows this and will want to take her), Brenda, and either Sash if he and Brenda both think they can beat the other in front of the jury or Chase.

Sleeper prediction would be Kelly purple or Fabio making it to the end and being a mastermind that the producers have edited to lead us in the wrong direction so far.

[JasonEvans]

Marty being voted out was very predictable. My sons kept on thinking Brenda and Sash would go along with Marty's plan but I told them there was no way that would happen.

Think about it -- Brenda and Sash are currently in control of the dominant alliance in the game. Heck, they are so in control of it that they can pretty much decide who else will join them in their alliance. Why would they turn on Chase, Naonka, Jane, and Holly to join an alliance that would appear to be controlled by Marty? What logic would there be in that? Marty was toast and we all knew it.

The wild card in the game is Naonka. She is liable to do anything at any time and I would get rid of her soon if I was in an alliance with her. I am not sure if her attitude at Tribal Council is an act or if she really is that bitter and out of control. I think Brenda and Sash should really think about the risk in continuing to rely on Naonka. Still, Na is such a lunatic, they may see her as the ideal person to sit next to at the end. The path to get there will be rocky though.

I am beginning to see Jud/Fabio as smarter than they have shown him so far. I think he still has a big role to play in this game. Now that the hated Marty is gone, I wonder if Fabio and Benry and Dan will try to get Holly on their side. At some point these folks have got to break up the Brenda and Sash alliance (which appears to be very tight with Na, Chase, and Jane). It will be very interesting to see who gets targeted now that Marty is gone. chase won't go along with a move to get rid of Jane.

It is about to get interesting, I think. Looking forward to it!!

--Jason "Chase siding with the women in the reward challenge was stupid and lame and pandering" Evans

[JasonEvans]

I just realized, looking back on my post, that I did not mention Kelly Purple once in the end game strategy. Every other player on the show was in that post... but not KP. I had honestly forgotten she was even on the show. I am serious. We had another KP sighting this week-- she cried or something, didn't she?

--Jason "Is she the lamest Survivor ever?" Evans

[Udaman]

As you all know, I really enjoy Survivor (as does my spouse, and now my kids)....but the one fundamental problem it has is that once you get to around 11 and fewer people, it is almost always some dominant alliance that takes over. True, there have been a few times where the dominant alliance gets blindsided...but that is rare.

This season is no exception.

Last night, I was pretty sure Marty was going home before the episode started....then when Brenda won the immunity challenge, and smiled, and Kelly Purple had her one line (she beat him), I was about 95% sure. Then when NaOnka didn't use her immunity idol, I was 100% sure.

What they didn't show us on screen, is that Brenda must have told NaOnka what the plan was, and that she had nothing to worry about. That simply must have happened.

So you have Brenda, Sash, Kelly Purple and NaOnka as rock solid alliance. They also have the two key swing voters in Jane and Chase, and Jane and Chase also seem to have Holly on their side. That's 7-3.

Bottom line, Tom, Benry and Fabio are in huge, huge trouble.

Sure, the three of them could try to get Jane, Chase and Holly to join them (and outnumber the strong alliance 6-4)...but that won't happen because everyone knows that Sash has an immunity idol - so turning on him makes no sense.

In the next two episodes two of Tom, Benry and Fabio are toast. Signed sealed and delivered. Then I think Holly, Chase and Jane will go (because the rock solid four will see them as a threat).

My guess for the final three will be Brenda, Kelly purple and NaOnka. I can all but guarantee that NaOnka will make the final three, because nobody would be stupid enough to not want to take her. She cannot win. She has lost the votes of Marty, Benry, Fabio, Tom and Alina. But she will make the Final 3.

Lastly, I hate that Marty is out. I saw him as the best player...right until the end when he got uber paranoid about Jane. He should have just let that go. I guess his thinking was, "No way am I making the final 3- so I'm taking her down with me."

[mr. synellinden]

As you all know, I really enjoy Survivor (as does my spouse, and now my kids)....but the one fundamental problem it has is that once you get to around 11 and fewer people, it is almost always some dominant alliance that takes over. True, there have been a few times where the dominant alliance gets blindsided...but that is rare.

This season is no exception.

Last night, I was pretty sure Marty was going home before the episode started....then when Brenda won the immunity challenge, and smiled, and Kelly Purple had her one line (she beat him), I was about 95% sure. Then when NaOnka didn't use her immunity idol, I was 100% sure.

What they didn't show us on screen, is that Brenda must have told NaOnka what the plan was, and that she had nothing to worry about. That simply must have happened.

So you have Brenda, Sash, Kelly Purple and NaOnka as rock solid alliance. They also have the two key swing voters in Jane and Chase, and Jane and Chase also seem to have Holly on their side. That's 7-3.

Bottom line, Tom, Benry and Fabio are in huge, huge trouble.

Sure, the three of them could try to get Jane, Chase and Holly to join them (and outnumber the strong alliance 6-4)...but that won't happen because everyone knows that Sash has an immunity idol - so turning on him makes no sense.

In the next two episodes two of Tom, Benry and Fabio are toast. Signed sealed and delivered. Then I think Holly, Chase and Jane will go (because the rock solid four will see them as a threat).

My guess for the final three will be Brenda, Kelly purple and NaOnka. I can all but guarantee that NaOnka will make the final three, because nobody would be stupid enough to not want to take her. She cannot win. She has lost the votes of Marty, Benry, Fabio, Tom and Alina. But she will make the Final 3.

Lastly, I hate that Marty is out. I saw him as the best player...right until the end when he got uber paranoid about Jane. He should have just let that go. I guess his thinking was, "No way am I making the final 3- so I'm taking her down with me."

I think you mean Dan, not Tom. Funny, because I think that shows what little impact Dan has had on the game. It always bothers me when players like that who don't seem to have any interest in playing the strategy part of the game and don't even seem to want to be there hang around longer than players like Marty who have a passion for playing the game.

I agree that there have to be lots of things we're not seeing. But that also means there could be a lot going on that is going to lead to surprises down the road and alliances and numbers can shift so quickly - you often see things change when people go on reward challenges because the biggest influence when you get to this point in the game is fear of the unknown - what are people talking about with other people when they're alone, are they making their own alliance, are they going to try to blindside me, do they see me as a threat, etc.

I am expecting (maybe hoping) that things start going a little haywire soon.

I actually see Fabio and Benry in a good position because they really haven't been targeted by the core of the alliances and they are going to be needed.

[Udaman]

I hope you are right...but I don't see it. Benry and Fabio aren't needed at all. Brenda, Sash and NaOnka have 2 immunity idols between them. Everyone knows about one of them. Those three (plus Kelly purple) are in charge.

The ONLY thing that could happen to mix things up is if somehow Dan (and yes I meant Dan), Fabio and Benry could convince Jane, Holly and Chase to flip on the main alliance and blindside someone - not giving them the chance to play their immunity idol. That is the only thing that could happen.

But Brenda is too smart, I think, to let that happen. It would not surprise me if she gets rid of Dan this week, and then next week tries to court Benry and Fabio to break up the Jane/Chase alliance and send home Chase. Once that happens, it's 4 to 4, and Jane, Fabio and Benry go next (thanks to the immunity idols owned by Chase and NaOnka).

[mr. synellinden]

The ONLY thing that could happen to mix things up is if somehow Dan (and yes I meant Dan), Fabio and Benry could convince Jane, Holly and Chase to flip on the main alliance and blindside someone - not giving them the chance to play their immunity idol. That is the only thing that could happen.



Here's the thing - why wouldn't Dan, Fabio and Benry do that? And why wouldn't that be appealing to Chase and Jane (Holly will do whatever they say). Chase and Jane know they are on the outside of the core alliance. Let's assume they know they are # 5 and #6 in that 6 person alliances. Or at best #4 and #5 (I have no idea where Ms. Purple stands). And I see that as a problem for Brenda/Sash/Naonka. Something is going to have to give as people start jockeying for position. Chase/Holly/Jane fear the Sash/Brenda/Naonka trio - you saw that least week in Chase's paranoia. And Sash/Brenda/Naonka have to fear the bond that Chase has with Jane and by extension, Holly. Nobody is fearing Fabio and Benry right now - I think they will be safe for a while - but who knows.

[noyac]

I don't know why they would show a major spoiler in their own scenes from next episode. I won't say exactly what it is in case you missed it.

[JasonEvans]

Ok, the funniest part of the whole episode was Purple Kelly admitting that she had no idea what was going on and then being the only person to vote for Benry. Ha! She is so out of the loop, even the people who are losing and getting voted out don't bother to get her in on their plans.

By the way, I want some props for pointing out that Naonka was a scary person to have in your alliance. I want some further props for saying that the folks on the outside needed to get Holly on their side. I was shocked to see Jane abandon Chase so quickly but the rest of what happened was exactly what I said needed to happen to get rid of Brenda. I thought it could happen, but I was still a bit surprised to see it play out that way.

Key thing to note was Chase and Sash voting Brenda out. They knew they did not have the numbers any more and they smartly cut their losses and joined the majority to take Brenda out.

I think Sash, especially, realized that the folks who were voting Brenda out had no real leader and no real agenda against him. He needs to be careful about folks targeting him to take out his idol, but if he plays the idol right and keeps his ears open to plots against him, he can still go very far. Despite his alliance being busted tonight, I am liking him for the Final 4.

Chase too made a smart move to take out Brenda. He knows Jane is a real player in the game and he needs to maintain his alliance with her. Doing what she wants and taking out Brenda ensures that. I think Chase may find a target on his back though, because he clearly went behind everyone's back and told Brenda what was going on. He is also going to be seen as the major physical threat left in the game.

Finally, to Naonka -- I was all ready to say that if she could avoid blowing up and infuriating everyone that she would be a lock to make the final 3 because everyone hates her and thinks she won't get any votes. She made an enemy out of Brenda tonight, her former closest ally. She is the ideal person to sit next to in the finals... but I don't think she will get there. The previews show that she is going to blow up again. Plus, I think Fabio has been eagerly waiting for another chance to vote her out and now he has it. How many folks know she has an idol? Does Chase? She may need to play the idol to survive this coming week. Will she be smart enough to do it?

--Jason "it is getting a lot better -- oh, and I did not see the hint in the previews" Evans

[mkirsh]

--Jason "it is getting a lot better -- oh, and I did not see the hint in the previews" Evans

The hint in the previews was Fabio wearing the immunity necklace when talking to the camera, but obviously not from this week's episode.

I bet Marty isn't sleeping at all. I'm sure he lays there tossing and turning and wishing he had lasted one more day. After he was gone the tribe blindsided front-runner Brenda, and then two people quit? Marty could have been one of 7 with a wide-open game, and I'm sure he's kicking himself.

Are the conditions this year harder than other years? Would have loved some commentary from Probst, and was surprised to see 2 people actually quit at this stage. I don't think they should be allowed to be on the jury since they quit. Would love to see someone say to them "I'm not going to answer your question since you quit, don't vote for me if you don't want to" in an attempt to pander to Marty, Brenda, and Alina who have to be pissed that two people just quit.

After seeming somewhat more human the past few weeks, Naonka solidified herself in the top tier of all time survivor a-holes with her performance in going on the reward and still quitting. I really was hoping that she was going to decide to stay and then the tribe vote her out anyway.

Holly's sacrifice for the tarp was cool to see, but it will probably hurt her in the next 2 or 3 votes. People will not want to take her to the final since she just created a lot of good will for herself among potential jury members.

So who wins this thing? I guess Jane is probably the best candidate, although it seems that people recognize her as huge threat (thanks to Marty). Chase has an idol, but I don't think he can win even if he gets to the final three. He has played a "followers" game so far, and his constant flip-flopping has hurt others without really doing much to help him advance, so doubt he can get enough votes. Sash with an idol has to be the biggest threat, so he's my pick right now, and for some reason I like Fabio as a darkhorse.

[Blue in the Face]

Would have loved some commentary from Probst, and was surprised to see 2 people actually quit at this stage. I don't think they should be allowed to be on the jury since they quit.

After seeming somewhat more human the past few weeks, Naonka solidified herself in the top tier of all time survivor a-holes with her performance in going on the reward and still quitting. I really was hoping that she was going to decide to stay and then the tribe vote her out anyway.
I was thinking that too about excluding them from the jury. That would've been a pretty sweet smackdown. And agreed about Naonka - she really seems to embrace just being a bad person.

[AtlBluRew]

I was really surprised that quitters would be put on the jury as well. I don't feel bad for Marty at all. He was a tool, and deserved to go. What surprised me was Naonka giving her immunity idol to Chase, or to anyone for that matter.

[Blue in the Face]

What surprised me was Naonka giving her immunity idol to Chase, or to anyone for that matter.
Good point - I could imagine her tossing it into the fire as she walked off.

[mr. synellinden]

I was really surprised that quitters would be put on the jury as well. I don't feel bad for Marty at all. He was a tool, and deserved to go. What surprised me was Naonka giving her immunity idol to Chase, or to anyone for that matter.

He addressed this issue (http://popwatch.ew.com/2010/12/02/jeff-probst-blogs-survivor-nicaragua-episode-12/)and said there was precedent for someone who quit being on the jury (Janu - from Survivor Palau). So they decided they had to remain consistent.

[DukeCrow]

and for some reason I like Fabio as a darkhorse.

I'm sticking with Fabio to win it all. He is in a very good position if he can rack up some immunity challenge wins at this point (the hint you pointed out).

He will be almost impossible to beat in the final tribal council because he hasn't had to lie to anyone.

[JasonEvans]

I was really surprised that quitters would be put on the jury as well. I don't feel bad for Marty at all. He was a tool, and deserved to go. What surprised me was Naonka giving her immunity idol to Chase, or to anyone for that matter.

The moment she did that, I knew she was leaving the game. She had decided to go and there was not going to be anything stopping her... even winning a reward challenge and getting food/luxury. When it was raining at the Tribal Council, that only sealed the deal.

Jeff treated both of the quitters with disdain, but I wish he had been even more harsh with them. These folks were so close to the end, it is disgusting that they could not suck it up and last a little longer. Pathetic and bad for the game.

I want to talk about the decision by Holly to give up her reward for the good of the tribe. Everyone says Naonka should have been the one to volunteer, but she at least earned her way to the reward. Dan, who did nothing, should have given up the reward in a heartbeat. They should have been furious at him for not doing it. The dude is a waste of air. He is the most muscular looking weakling in history. I cannot stand him, floating along and doing nothing except limping from place to place. At least it seems like he is not very tight with anyone, which should keep him from getting to the end of the game.

--Jason "Holly put a huuuge target on her back with her goodwill, I think" Evans

[JasonEvans]

I'm sticking with Fabio to win it all. He is in a very good position if he can rack up some immunity challenge wins at this point (the hint you pointed out).

He will be almost impossible to beat in the final tribal council because he hasn't had to lie to anyone.

Yeah, I have been liking Fabio for a while but it is going to take some work to get to the end. I am sure everyone else knows what we know about his popularity with the jury and will want to get rid of him.

I also want to point out that we have a very interesting jury developing. Rather than spite, I think you are going to see some votes for the player who played best. Certainly Marty and perhaps Brenda will be voting along those lines. I could see Sash, who controlled the game for a while but then managed to stay viable and important after he lost control, will get massive respect from the strategic players on the jury. Perhaps the biggest moment of the show this week was Sash talking about being the swing vote among the final 7 players (once Na and shewhodoesnotdesevetobenamed quit). He still has an immunity idol to work for him too. If you want to identify someone who could beat Fabio at the end, Sash might be it.

That said, I have a hard time figuring out how those two get to the end together. I think the winner will be whichever of them does make it that far... unless Holly makes the final. If Holly is there, she beats anyone.

--Jason "with the idol, Sash can really manipulate the end game nicely if he wants" Evans

[AtlBluRew]

He addressed this issue (http://popwatch.ew.com/2010/12/02/jeff-probst-blogs-survivor-nicaragua-episode-12/)and said there was precedent for someone who quit being on the jury (Janu - from Survivor Palau). So they decided they had to remain consistent.

I wonder how much time they had, or took, to make the decision, and I wonder how Marty, Alina and Brenda learned that Naonka and Purple Kelly would join them on the jury. With the editing, the three learned of the quitting only when the two actually announced their intentions, and at least Alina had tears streaming immediately. Naonka and Purple Kelly were announced as the new members of the jury right away. I'd love to see what happened between those announcements. And I'd love to watch Naonka and Marty go at it.

[mkirsh]

Dan, who did nothing, should have given up the reward in a heartbeat. They should have been furious at him for not doing it. The dude is a waste of air. He is the most muscular looking weakling in history. I cannot stand him, floating along and doing nothing except limping from place to place.


I don't think Probst gave him the option to sacrifice, I think he said it had to be one of Benry-Nay-Chase-Holly to do it.

[mkirsh]

Everyone left on this show is LAME! I guess this is what you get when people vote out leaders/threats/strategists early, but can't remember it ever being this bad. Everyone left is a follower except for the immensely arrogant Sash, and he doesn't even have to strategize as he can sit back and let the game fall apart around him.

Why don't people use their jury votes for leverage? Dan, Fabio, and Benry should have said to Sash "we know it's 3 on 3 and you are the swing vote. If you don't vote with us you will lose all 3 of our jury votes. Combine that with Marty and Brenda who you backstabbed, that's 5 votes against you and you have zero chance of winning. You are better off as the 4th in our alliance and trying to win immunity into the final 3."

Right now I think Holly wins, but we'll see what dumb moves people make next week to change it up again.

[DukeCrow]

The Benry, Fabio, Dan alliance didn't play very smart at all, especially Benry. It's like they didn't really have an alliance and were all freelancers. Why would Dan and Benry agree to vote out Fabio so quickly? The only rationale would be that Benry thinks he can win immunity challenges all the way to the final 3. But what's Dan's rationale??? Makes no sense to me, but it does make total sense why Sash didn't ally with them. Would you trust those 3 to stay together and vote the way you want them to? Of course, now they are going to look to blindside Sash to make sure he can't use his hidden immunity idol. But I don't think any of the remaining players are slick enough to orchestrate that.

Still waiting for Fabio to win the individual immunity, as hinted at in the preview last week. I guess that means at least final 5 for him. Still think he'll find a way to the final 3 and eventually win.

Final 3 prediction - Chase, Fabio, Sash. Seems unlikely but who would want to take Jane or Holly to the final 3?

[JasonEvans]

Sash had a automatic route to the final 3 in this episode. Here is what he had to do...

Pick one of the groups of 3 (Group A) and vote with them to eliminate one member of the other group (Group B). At that point, Group B is desperate and has no chance to win as they are going to be picked off one-by-one by Group A plus Sash. So, Sash comes to them and says, "you two must guarantee me that you will take me to the final 2 or 3." They would clearly agree as they really have no other choice. Then, Sash goes to Group A and figures out who Group A plans to vote out. He then uses his idol to protect the Group B target and take out whoever he wants in Group A. This puts him in a 3 person alliance and they can eliminate the last 2 people in Group A.

Of course, the problem with that is that Sash alienates even more of the jury. He would have to be very convincing to the jury about how he played the game and hope to swing some folks who he stabbed in the back. The strategy only really works if he goes to the final with 2 people who are really hated and/or undeserving -- like Dan and... I dunno that there is anyone left who falls into this category. It would have worked beautifully with Dan and Na or Purple Kelly. Ahh well.

I am glad Benry got taken out last week. His willingness to throw Fabio to the wolves was weak and did him no favors with the TV audience. Good riddance!

I think Dan's plan is to be so lame that everyone wants to take him to the finals. I would love it if he stood up at the finals, after being carried there as some weakling, and ran laps around the arena while lifting 200lbs weights laughing, "ha, you thought I was weak, but it was all part of my master plan. Bwahahahahaha!" Never happen though. He is a lame-o loser.

I cannot fathom how anyone lets Holly get to the finals. She'd win in a heartbeat. She must be voted out soon!

Jane may not be as much of a jury lock as we are being led to believe, especially if Holly is there too. Still, I think they need to get rid of her pretty quickly too.

Chase is a strategic idiot, one of the worst at figuring out how to play the game in recent history. I don't like him at all.

Fabio is my favorite. Funny and maybe not as dumb as he looks. I hope he goes on an immunity streak, as some folks have mentioned, and gets to the finals. He's someone I would root for, for sure!

--Jason "why would Sash stick with Jane, Holly, and Chase -- who are all so tight?" Evans

[AtlBluRew]

I felt a bit sorry for Benry because for 30 days he apparently thought that he and Chase were buddies. He said so in a side interview. He must have gotten a rude awakening watching the show as it aired and hearing Chase say, week after week, that he didn't trust Benry.

Sash was really obnoxious in this episode. I'm sorry but the only person in Survivor history that I enjoyed seeing preen for the camera because he was "in control" was Russell. Still, he apparently was in control. I saw a video cut from his side interview (on Probst's blog) in which he said that before Tribal, Chase had come up to him for direction on who to vote out.

I think that Chase can get some votes from the jury, no matter who he's up against. He doesn't have a quick strategic mind, but he really does honor his word and his relationships. He'll get some votes for being, in essence, a sweetheart. One thing that has to be pointed out in Chase's favor ... he apparently hasn't told anyone that he has Na's idol. Maybe he's got some cunning after all. And he does acknowledge that he can't go with Jane to the final three because she'd beat him.

I really have no idea what's going on in Dan's head. I wonder if he thinks he can win, or if this is just some sort of exercise to see how long he can last. And how long he can coast on the efforts of others.

Since no one wants to go to the jury against Holly or Jane, it makes sense for Chase and Sash to team up with Fabio and Dan to vote the ladies off, and then to take Dan to the final 3. It's clear that the immunity winner would take Dan to the jury, and win million. Fabio would have a shot at beating any of the men.

[Udaman]

JE - your strategy with Sash was right on. Of course, I didn't think of it, and I haven't spent 30 days being starved of 20 plus pounds and getting no sleep....so I guess it isn't that surprising that Sash didn't either. That said, it would have been brilliant (we need a DBR Survivor - let's all apply at the same time).

Still, I think Sash going with Chase and the girls was the smart move - for him. He's stronger than both Holly and Jane - and he knows they are huge, huge threats, which means people will turn on them, and hopefully soon. His thinking was likely, "I can definitely beat them in a challenge, which means I just need to beat Chase to win immunity....plus I have an idol." On the other team, he has to beat Benry and Fabio, and that's not easy at all.

Still, none of them will beat either Jane or Holly if they are in the Final 3, and I'm feeling pretty certain they at least one will be. I predict this week that Fabio wins immunity, and then Chase continues his really, really dumb ways and they vote out Dan (instead of Holly, Jane or Sash).

My prediction is that the final 3 is Chase, Holly and Sash....and Holly wins. But I'm rooting for Fabio...big time. Should have known as soon as Survivor changed his name on the screen to "Fabio" that he would stick around.

Finally - Chase's decision to take Jane to the reward was one of the DUMBEST moves ever on Survivor...and he got away with it. Stunning.

[noyac]

"Why don't people use their jury votes for leverage? Dan, Fabio, and Benry should have said to Sash "we know it's 3 on 3 and you are the swing vote. If you don't vote with us you will lose all 3 of our jury votes. Combine that with Marty and Brenda who you backstabbed, that's 5 votes against you and you have zero chance of winning. You are better off as the 4th in our alliance and trying to win immunity into the final 3."

I have been wondering that for sometime myself. The jury vote is a big bargaining chip that is not being utilized to its potential.

I know what Probst said about being consistant and letting them on the jury but I think they should have kept them off the jury and all future involvement with the show; no picture or bio on the website and no sponsorships using the show name.

How else are they supposed to protect the show. I mean what happened if 5 people quit and the show has to be shortened by a few episodes. They would not be able to fufill advertising obligations and it would cost them money.

Oh yeah and of course Probst is pissed he is the producer and he knows it is not good for the show to have people quitting.

Sorry for the rant I just get upset when people throw away golden opportunities that I would like to have.

[JasonEvans]

None of them deserve to win. Zero. Nada. These are collectively the worst players in the history of the game.

So, last night Holly, Sash, and Chase decide they need to take out Jane, who would be a huge danger if she makes it to the end. I can see this logic. It makes sense and their only other real threat is Fabio but he has immunity.

But they told her they were going to vote her out... told her to her face. Are they incapable of doing math? Why didn't Jane turn right around and get Fabio and Dan to vote out Holly (who is equally dangerous in the finals, I think)? Sure, it would have been 3-3, but at least that would have given Dan and Fabio (along with Jane) a chance of controlling the game. Instead, they continue to leave things in Sash, Chase, and Holly's hands meaning the only way Dan and Fabio can advance is to win immunity.

I cannot fathom why Dan, Fabio, and Jane would not have done this and I cannot fathom why the SHC alliance would have risked the tie vote?!?! Can none of these people do math!??!

Even more ridiculous, neither Chase nor Sash (both of whom had idols even though neither of them ever found an idol) gave their idol to the vulnerable Holly. Surely they must have been afraid that the clueless wonders would get their act together and target all 3 votes toward someone on the SHC alliance! Of course, that target would be Holly. One of them had to move to protect her to ensure all 3 of them made it through and continued to control the game. But, nooooooo. They just waltzed up to Jeff and left Holly hanging out to dry. Luckily, clueless Dan and Fabio didn't take advantage of it. Not that it would have mattered, lunatic Jane cast her meaningless vote against Chase. I have no idea why!

We sorta knew the clueless wonders would not be banding together when Jane killed the fire. That was not a "I have something up my sleeve with the other guys" kinda move. I am betting they cut out a scene where Jane went and talked to Fabio or Dan and they told her they would not vote Holly out.

So, it is now very clear that Fabio is next unless he wins immunity in which case we will finally be through with Dan, the cripple. Seeing as Dan is incapable of an immunity run (he is barely capable of walking to the challenges), we are going to see a final that will feature the 3 person alliance or 2 of them with Fabio (if he can win 2 immunity challenges, which he certainly could).

So, here is how I rate the possible winners--

If Fabio makes it to the end, winning several challenges along the way and playing a very honest game the whole way, it is hard not to see him winning it all. Maybe there is something that has gone on behind the scenes that could hurt his chances. Maybe folks will think he was lucky and he never led the game. But, I think negative feelings toward the other folks sitting there will carry the day and Fabio will win against any other opponents.

If the final 3 are Chase, Holly, and Sash (the most likely final, IMO), I think it will be very close between Sash (controlled the game throughout, morphed into new alliances whenever his old alliances crumbled) and Holly (likable, a good job of aligning with the right people at the right time, actually performed ok in challenges). I think Sash would win, but it would be a tight vote. Sash would need to get the early jury vote (Brenda, Marty, Na, and Kelly Purple) because I think Holly, who gave of herself to feed the tribe at one point, would get a lot of votes from the late jury folks. Jane, who hates both of them, may be the swing vote if those two go up against each other.

I don't see Chase getting many votes at all no matter who he is up against. He has tried so hard to be honorable but has continually stabbed folks in the back and won't have many friends on the jury at all. Maybe, if Chase managed to get to the end with Holly and Dan (how could that happen?!?!), he might get some votes as the only physical player who made it there against two weaker players who coasted a lot. Even then, I don't really see him getting the 4 or 5 votes he would need to win the prize.

Dan, if he somehow got to the end, cannot beat anyone. He has coasted and never once was involved in the strategy of the game and he was a weakling at camp and in challenges. I doubt he has the respect of a single member of the jury.

--Jason "my odds for winning: Sash-33%, Holly-27%, Fabio-25% (increases to 75% if he makes the finals), Chase-10%, Dan-5%" Evans

[AtlBluRew]

Jane suggested the vote against Holly right there at Tribal Council. It was discussed. I was dumbfounded that Fabio, Dan and Jane didn't agree right there to vote that way. What "should" have happened at that point is that Sash or Chase would give their immunity idol to Holly, and the SHC votes against Jane would still send her home. Even if Chase and Sash didn't step up and give Holly the idol, the tie break rule would follow. I'm not sure, but isn't everyone vulnerable on the tie break, even those with immunity?

Jane really showed an ugly side last night. I couldn't believe her bitterness from the moment Chase picked Holly to go on the reward. She even blamed Chase for HER decision to spend the summer away from her daughter. The choice to take Holly was the first strategic decision Chase has made. He didn't want her back at camp talking with the other alliance. And he's now paid in full his debt to Holly for her sacrificing an earlier reward to get supplies for the whole camp. She's paid in full. Chase can, without guilt, take someone else to the finals. He stands a better chance against Sash than he does against Holly.

It didn't surprise me that Chase put the SHC alliance in the position of confessing their plans to Jane. He may have turned on prior alliances, but in each case he followed the crowd. I don't recall that he actively lied to anyone. So when Jane confronted the three, the jig was up. Chase did try to deflect it with "Is this what you (Sash and Holly) have decided?"

I don't know how Chase saves himself with Fabio. He broke Fabio's heart by not taking him on the reward (which he could have explained away by saying he needed to keep Holly away from Jane and Dan and that he trusted Fabio more); but then Jane revealed the plan to put Fabio on the block next.

Jason you're right that no one deserves to win this game. It's a point now of who deserves it least, and hoping that person wins just for the humor of it. Dan now get my vote for least-deserving. He hasn't made a single strategic move and as you noted, he can't perform physically.

[Kdogg]

Jane suggested the vote against Holly right there at Tribal Council.

I don't think it was Jane who suggested that. It was Jeff! I believe he crossed a line this episode but the knuckelheads counldn't read the bloody map he drew. I still think you want Dan in the final three. Instead of a 1 in 3 chance we have a 1 in 2 chance to win.

[mkirsh]

None of them deserve to win. Zero. Nada. These are collectively the worst players in the history of the game.



Slightly disagree in that I think Sash would actually be a deserving winner - the rug keeps getting pulled out from under him (Brenda refusing to "scramble", Kelly and Nay quitting), but he keeps weaseling his way into the dominant alliance and working his way up the totem pole. He is an arrogant jerk and seems so phony and I wouldn't want him to win, but he has played the game fairly well. The others do suck though.

Jane and Dan/Fabio must have really not gotten along because it was crazy for them not to team up. Probst basically told them to (which was a shock to me, I've never seen him reach that far) and they still didn't. I would hope that there might have been a non-televised moment where Sash and Chase said "we could always give our idol to Holly and you wouldn't know which one of us to vote for" to create enough confusion to derail the insurgency, but don't think they were smart enough to pull it off.

The only wrinkle that I could see coming is Sash blindsiding Holly or Chase - his reluctance to get rid of Dan has me thinking that he wants Dan in the final 3. He would probably want to take Dan and Chase, so Holly may be the one in trouble.

Other thoughts:
- Chase is the dumbest "leader" ever - he thinks he is being honorable but every move he makes alienates more of the jury. He would be better off using the Costanza opposite approach and going against all of his instincts
- Who is the extra they replaced Kelly purple with on the jury?
- I had forgotten about Dan's $1,400 shoes - who brings something like that to survivor with them?

[Blue in the Face]

Other thoughts:
- Chase is the dumbest "leader" person ever - he thinks he is being honorable but every move he makes alienates more of the jury. He would be better off using the Costanza opposite approach and going against all of his instincts

Fixed that for you. This guy is truly astonishing. It would have been hard to be less impressive than he'd been to date, yet he topped himself this week, by a mile. The old crack about spotting Terry Bradshaw the c and t to spell cat - Bradshaw might've been able to work that one out, but Chase I just don't know.

[JasonEvans]

Fixed that for you. This guy is truly astonishing. It would have been hard to be less impressive than he'd been to date, yet he topped himself this week, by a mile. The old crack about spotting Terry Bradshaw the c and t to spell cat - Bradshaw might've been able to work that one out, but Chase I just don't know.

Well, Chase is a NASCAR jackman. I am pretty sure you need a graduate degree to operate a device that moves cars up and down. That's some mentally challenging work.

-Jason "Chase pretends to be smart but is really dumb. Is Fabio pretending to be dumb but is really smart?" Evans

[OZZIE4DUKE]

- Who is the extra they replaced Kelly purple with on the jury?
What you talkin' bout, Willis?:confused:

[mkirsh]

What you talkin' bout, Willis?:confused:
it was just that jury kelly looks so much different than she did during the game

[JasonEvans]

Congrats to Fabio. It was a much closer vote than I had expected, but he pulled it out.

I think I underestimated how much the jury hated Sash and did not like the way he lied to everyone about his plans and alliances. I saw him doing it throughout the show, but thought people would respect his game play more than they did. I can totally see why some folks felt they would not vote for Fabio, who did not control the game or the fate of the folks being voted out at all, and wanted to vote for more of a "power player." I think that accounted for the close vote.

One more thing-- I think Survivor probably manipulates the jury votes a bit. I just have a hard time thinking that Sash did not get a single vote.

-Jason "More later..." Evans

[AtlBluRew]

After Chase said he has an EP coming out this week, I did a quick Google search on him. I found out that he was a UNC linebacker. Didn't realize that before!

I am happy for Fabio but I think that million dollars is going to disappear really fast!

The Miami affiliate cut away from the results show to go to local news, so I didn't get to see the second half of the show at all. I'm curious about Jane's vote. Did she go for Chase or did she hold a grudge and vote for Fabio?

[1 24 90]

After Chase said he has an EP coming out this week, I did a quick Google search on him. I found out that he was a UNC linebacker. Didn't realize that before!

I am happy for Fabio but I think that million dollars is going to disappear really fast!

The Miami affiliate cut away from the results show to go to local news, so I didn't get to see the second half of the show at all. I'm curious about Jane's vote. Did she go for Chase or did she hold a grudge and vote for Fabio?

Jane voted for Chase according to wiki. Also, Naonka voted for Chase.

The unseen votes for Fabio were from Benry, Holly & Purple Kelly.

[mkirsh]

Jane voted for Chase according to wiki. Also, Naonka voted for Chase.

The unseen votes for Fabio were from Benry, Holly & Purple Kelly.

Very surprised that Purple Kelly voted for Fabio, her Q&A made it seem like Chase all the way.


Congrats to Fabio. It was a much closer vote than I had expected, but he pulled it out.

I think I underestimated how much the jury hated Sash and did not like the way he lied to everyone about his plans and alliances. I saw him doing it throughout the show, but thought people would respect his game play more than they did. I can totally see why some folks felt they would not vote for Fabio, who did not control the game or the fate of the folks being voted out at all, and wanted to vote for more of a "power player." I think that accounted for the close vote.

One more thing-- I think Survivor probably manipulates the jury votes a bit. I just have a hard time thinking that Sash did not get a single vote.

-Jason "More later..." Evans

It was clear from the last 2 shows that Sash's chief strategic priority was to get to the final 3, but he made no plans to actually win it. Him voting out Dan instead of Holly was clear indication of this, as Holly said she would take him and Dan didn't, despite the fact that Holly was a MUCH bigger jury threat. I guess he assumed that people would respect his strategy for hedging his way to final 3.

I'm actually surprised that Chase got so many votes given how wishy washy and dumb his gameplay was, but he basically pulled the anti-Amanda where he was great in Q&A (lame opening remarks notwithstanding). I thought it might be editing to make it seem like it wasn't a Fabio runaway, but it was really close.

Here's a dumb question - with 3 final contestants, what would have happened if one of Fabio's votes had gone to Sash and they ended with a 4-4 tie? Would Chase and Fabio have been forced to make fires on the reunion set as a tie break?

[mr. synellinden]

Very surprised that Purple Kelly voted for Fabio, her Q&A made it seem like Chase all the way.



It was clear from the last 2 shows that Sash's chief strategic priority was to get to the final 3, but he made no plans to actually win it. Him voting out Dan instead of Holly was clear indication of this, as Holly said she would take him and Dan didn't, despite the fact that Holly was a MUCH bigger jury threat. I guess he assumed that people would respect his strategy for hedging his way to final 3.

I'm actually surprised that Chase got so many votes given how wishy washy and dumb his gameplay was, but he basically pulled the anti-Amanda where he was great in Q&A (lame opening remarks notwithstanding). I thought it might be editing to make it seem like it wasn't a Fabio runaway, but it was really close.

Here's a dumb question - with 3 final contestants, what would have happened if one of Fabio's votes had gone to Sash and they ended with a 4-4 tie? Would Chase and Fabio have been forced to make fires on the reunion set as a tie break?

My guess is in that situation they would make the one Sash voter re-vote and pick between Chase and Fabio. I think that might have been one of the things that Jason was getting at. Maybe the original vote was 4-3-2 (Fabio - Chase - Sash) and there was a runoff where the two Sash voters had to vote for Fabio or Chase. I don't think the producers manipulate the votes to make it appear more dramatic. In recent seasons I think there have been some overwhelming wins where they have stopped reading votes after the 5th for the winner (and the second place person has only 2).

I don't know what would happen if the original vote was 3-3-3.

[Blue in the Face]

Here's a dumb question - with 3 final contestants, what would have happened if one of Fabio's votes had gone to Sash and they ended with a 4-4 tie? Would Chase and Fabio have been forced to make fires on the reunion set as a tie break?
I don't think they've ever explained what would happen. After losing on fans vs favorites, Amanda said there was a white envelope which supposedly contained tie-breaking procedures, if it came to that, but that they never found out any details.

http://www.realitytvworld.com/news/exclusive-amanda-kimmel-talks-about-survivor-losing-twice-in-row-7096.php

[AtlBluRew]

Jane voted for Chase according to wiki. Also, Naonka voted for Chase.

The unseen votes for Fabio were from Benry, Holly & Purple Kelly.

Thanks. I didn't think of checking Wiki, but now I have, and the listed votes (right now) are a little different than you have:

Chase voters: Holly, Jane, Brenda, Alina
Fabio voters: Dan, Benry, Kelly S., NaOnka, Marty

I'd say I have a hard time believing NaOnka would have voted Fabio over Chase, but I have a hard time believing much about her.

[Kdogg]

One more thing-- I think Survivor probably manipulates the jury votes a bit. I just have a hard time thinking that Sash did not get a single vote.

-Jason "More later..." Evans

There is some scuttlebutt floating around the internet about this. The following is all rumor. Jane claimed Sash promised to help her with her mortgage if she voted for him. Sash claimed he said he was going to help his mother with her mortgage. Apparently there is no footage of this discussion. Jeff cut filming and talked it over with the producers. They then resumed filming. Whether it was true or not it was out there for the jury to consider. I don't like either Jane or Sash but I believe Sash here. Jane seems like a bitter, vindictive person (who's probably a Tar Heel :p).

It would not be the first time producers swept something under the rug. (I'm looking at you Lex and Tom and your pre All Star alliance.)

[DukeCrow]

I'd say I have a hard time believing NaOnka would have voted Fabio over Chase, but I have a hard time believing much about her.

Do you not remember the question Naonka posed to Fabio and his subsequent response? Half the jury was in tears. I think Fabio's answer must have moved Naonka. Also, Naonka and Fabio have said in interviews that their relationship wasn't really as bad as the edits made it seem.

Fabio said in an interview that he was a little surprised that the vote was so close -- people talk, and he thought he had a pretty good idea who's votes he had. Turns out that Brenda and Alina may have just voted for Chase out of pity because they thought no one else was going to.

[AtlBluRew]

Do you not remember the question Naonka posed to Fabio and his subsequent response? Half the jury was in tears. I think Fabio's answer must have moved Naonka. Also, Naonka and Fabio have said in interviews that their relationship wasn't really as bad as the edits made it seem.

Fabio said in an interview that he was a little surprised that the vote was so close -- people talk, and he thought he had a pretty good idea who's votes he had. Turns out that Brenda and Alina may have just voted for Chase out of pity because they thought no one else was going to.

You're right .. I had forgotten that NaOnka had posed that question, and that she seemed really touched by his response, as was everyone, me included!

[TheTrain]

After Chase said he has an EP coming out this week, I did a quick Google search on him. I found out that he was a UNC linebacker. Didn't realize that before!



Quick note....Chase's brother is Chad Rice who played football at Duke....Duke recruited Chase real hard

[AtlBluRew]

Quick note....Chase's brother is Chad Rice who played football at Duke....Duke recruited Chase real hard

With that news, I guess I'll still give Chase's music a listen. ;-)