Duke Basketball over/under

[Osiagledknarf]

Okay, I thought I would make up another one of these since the roster is final and we now know what the complete schedule is.

I will start:

Over/Under 7 Assists a game for KI

[FireOgilvie]

Okay, I thought I would make up another one of these since the roster is final and we now know what the complete schedule is.

I will start:

Over/Under 7 Assists a game for KI

Definitely under. He and Nolan and Seth are going to be sharing the ball a lot, which will somewhat limit his assists. I think Nolan's assists will be go up this year.

O/U - 12 points per game for Seth.

[MisterRoddy]

Definitely under. He and Nolan and Seth are going to be sharing the ball a lot, which will somewhat limit his assists. I think Nolan's assists will be go up this year.

O/U - 12 points per game for Seth.

Under, 12 ppg for a bench player is impressive and while I think Seth could do it, there is just too much wealth to spread in the backcourt. For Seth, I like anywhere between 8-10.

Over/Under: 16 ppg points for the Plumlee Bros.

[Osiagledknarf]

Under, 12 ppg for a bench player is impressive and while I think Seth could do it, there is just too much wealth to spread in the backcourt. For Seth, I like anywhere between 8-10.

Over/Under: 16 ppg points for the Plumlee Bros.

I am gonna say over here, even though I think Ryan Kelly is gonna get more playing time then people expect. I think they can average that together.

Over/Under 8 PPG for my boy Andre Dawkins.

[Lord Ash]

Wow, some TOUGH ones. Great thread!

7 assists/game for Kyrie; under, but not by much.

12 pts per game for Seth; under, but again, not by much. Close one.

16 pts per game for Plumlees; over. That is almost just garbage baskets for 2 guys, especially with Mason in there.

8pts per for Andre; unfortunately, under, but I just don't think he will get the minutes he would need for over. He'll have some big games I am sure, but I think there are a lot of potential scorers here.

Okay, lemme contribute two:


16 minute per game for Seth....

AND

7 points per game for Ryan.

[MisterRoddy]

Wow, some TOUGH ones. Great thread!

7 assists/game for Kyrie; under, but not by much.

12 pts per game for Seth; under, but again, not by much. Close one.

16 pts per game for Plumlees; over. That is almost just garbage baskets for 2 guys, especially with Mason in there.

8pts per for Andre; unfortunately, under, but I just don't think he will get the minutes he would need for over. He'll have some big games I am sure, but I think there are a lot of potential scorers here.

Okay, lemme contribute two:


16 minute per game for Seth....

AND

7 points per game for Ryan.


Over 16 minutes for Seth. I think he gets starters minutes (if not, very close to) with anywhere from around 20-25.

I will say under 7 points for Ryan, but not my much. Projecting as the first big off the bench, I think he gets around 5 or 6 points per. Good question.

Over/Under: 85 ppg for the team.

Bonus: Over/Under: 5 Alley Oops per game for the PBDC

[SCMatt33]

Over 16 minutes for Seth. I think he gets starters minutes (if not, very close to) with anywhere from around 20-25.

I will say under 7 points for Ryan, but not my much. Projecting as the first big off the bench, I think he gets around 5 or 6 points per. Good question.

Over/Under: 85 ppg for the team.

Bonus: Over/Under: 5 Alley Oops per game for the PBDC

Over, with the new tempo, I see us getting up to 86 or 87. Bonus: Under, this is quite ambitious. If it were just dunks in general, it would be an intriguing question, but alley oops is quite ambitious.

Over/Under: Make more FT's than our opponents take (couldn't really phrase this as a true over/under since we don't know the number that were shooting for yet).

Bonus: Since I talked about it already, over/under 5 Dunks per game in general for the Plumlees.

[basket1544]

Over/Under: 16 ppg points for the Plumlee Bros.

Over. I think 20 ppg for the Dunking Company is easily attained. Some nights Miles may get 12-15, other nights Mason will.


Over/Under: 85 ppg for the team.

Over but not a whole lot, probably 87 to 90. Duke has so many scorers that as long as they can take care of the ball, I think they are going to score on every possession. In 2001, Duke scored 90.7 ppg. I think the goal is somewhere near there.

[JMarley50]

Here's an interesting one....With a freshman point guard and much faster tempo do we avg. over/under 15 turnovers per game?

[Indoor66]

Here's an interesting one....With a freshman point guard and much faster tempo do we avg. over/under 15 turnovers per game?

Over. The running promotes turnovers.

[basket1544]

Here's an interesting one....With a freshman point guard and much faster tempo do we avg. over/under 15 turnovers per game?

In 2000 with a freshman point guard leading, Duke averaged 14 turnovers.
In 1990 with a freshman point guard leading, Duke averaged 17 turnovers.
So I think 15 is probably just about right.

[Lord Ash]

Over. The running promotes turnovers.

So now you have to provide one! I think when you answer, you are up next:)

[Starter]

I'll go out on a limb and go just over 7 for Kyrie. I think it's possible -- for example, Ray Felton had 6.7 APG his freshman year. Kyrie's going to have a loaded team, and I think he'll have the ball in his hands a lot.

I think Seth has over 12 PPG. Maybe about 13.5.

Over on the Plumlees. I think one guy will have 10, the other 8. Don't ask me which is which.

Under for Andre. Hate to say it, just too many bodies. I hope he figures out a way to get in double digits though.

Over 16 minutes for Curry, he'll be over 20 IMO.

Under 7 for Kelly.

New one: Big 3 last year averaged 53.3. Sub in Kyrie for Scheyer -- over/under?

[BensonDevil]

I'll go out on a limb and go just over 7 for Kyrie. I think it's possible -- for example, Ray Felton had 6.7 APG his freshman year. Kyrie's going to have a loaded team, and I think he'll have the ball in his hands a lot.

I think Seth has over 12 PPG. Maybe about 13.5.

Over on the Plumlees. I think one guy will have 10, the other 8. Don't ask me which is which.

Under for Andre. Hate to say it, just too many bodies. I hope he figures out a way to get in double digits though.

Over 16 minutes for Curry, he'll be over 20 IMO.

Under 7 for Kelly.

New one: Big 3 last year averaged 53.3. Sub in Kyrie for Scheyer -- over/under?

I'll push with Nolan and Kyle at around 19 and Kyrie around 15 a game.

here's mine, 27 mpg for KI

[basket1544]

I'll push with Nolan and Kyle at around 19 and Kyrie around 15 a game.

here's mine, 27 mpg for KI

27 mpg for Kyrie? Do you know he'll be playing for Coach K? Over on this one - probably be more like 33.

[BensonDevil]

27 mpg for Kyrie? Do you know he'll be playing for Coach K? Over on this one - probably be more like 33.

33 is a mighty lot for a freshman point. And we got Seth and Andre.

[Osiagledknarf]

27 mpg for Kyrie? Do you know he'll be playing for Coach K? Over on this one - probably be more like 33.

I think it will be more around 28-30. We have Seth Curry who will play some at that position, and guys like Dawkins who will be getting time at both the 2 and the 3. He will get a lot of time but I don't think it will be as high as the 33 minute range.

Over/Under 30 wins

[AZLA]

Ever the optimist, I'll take the over on KI's assists. Also because this year's team can fast break more effectively and shot completion percentages will be higher. Plus, if KI is a one-and-done for the NBA, he will (or should) be establishing himself as the best pure passer and ball handler in the NCAA.

[Lord Ash]

I think it will be more around 28-30. We have Seth Curry who will play some at that position, and guys like Dawkins who will be getting time at both the 2 and the 3. He will get a lot of time but I don't think it will be as high as the 33 minute range.

Over/Under 30 wins

Over.

Okay...

How about Kyle; over/under on 21ppg.

[_TheFakeJWill_]

Over.

Okay...

How about Kyle; over/under on 21ppg.

Under for kyle i say 19 a game and i think nolan will score more than kyle... just my 2 cents.

Over/Under: Duke having two 1st team AA's?!

[Osiagledknarf]

Under for kyle i say 19 a game and i think nolan will score more than kyle... just my 2 cents.

Over/Under: Duke having two 1st team AA's?!

I say a push... I think we have 3 guys who have the potential to make it, but I think Kyle and Nolan make it, with Kyrie coming in on the 2nd team. This is a real toss up though.

Over/Under 2.0 TO for KI.

[SCMatt33]

I say a push... I think we have 3 guys who have the potential to make it, but I think Kyle and Nolan make it, with Kyrie coming in on the 2nd team. This is a real toss up though.

Over/Under 2.0 TO for KI.

I say over. Last year, Jon had 65 TO's in 40 games with a slower tempo and an offense designed to value possessions. It would take just 15 more to get to 2.0, and I have a hard time seeing KI under that in a more up tempo style.

Over/Under: +6.0 rebounding margin.

[JasonEvans]

The over-under on All-Americans should be 1.5. The notion that we will have 3 first-team All-Americans is a little bit ludicrous. I don't think any team has done that, ever. Even when Duke had Laettner, Hurley, and Grant Hill we did not put 3 guys on the 1st team All-American team.

And. as an aside, I'll take the under. I think it is really hard in this age of so many games on TV where so many guys get to look good for 2 players from the same team to make 1st team All-American.

Carolina could not get 2 guys on the 1st team when they had Hasbro and Ty Lawson as upperclassmen in 2009 -- Lawson was consensus 2nd team. Kansas came up short last year when Sharron Collins made most 1st teams but Cole Aldrich was mostly a 2nd or 3rd teamer. Kentucky last year had Wall and Cousins both make the AP 1st team, but most other All-American team put Cousins on the 2nd or 3rd team so they did not have 2 consensus All-Americans.

The last team to put 2 guys on the consensus first team was Duke in 2006 with JJ and Shelden.

But, I think the hill will be higher to climb for Duke to 2 guys on the team this year. Our squad has too many good players who will get credited with Duke's success. I mean, the mere fact that we are talking about which of KI or Nolan will be candidates for All-American shows how hard it is even going to be to get 2 guys on the 1st team. Add in the fact that voters will see a lot of highlight reel dunks by the PlumBros and the hype Seth is likely to get as "sixth-man of the year" and I suspect we won't even put 2 guys on the first team. It is very different from JJ and Shel who were clearly seen as the two great players surrounded by a bunch of complimentary parts.

--Jason "not saying Nolan and/or KI won't deserve it -- just think it will be a tough sell to the voters" Evans

[Lord Ash]

Argh, all these people posting responses without posting a new over/under!:D

I say over on the +6 rebounding margin; I think we've got good rebounding overall as a team next year... even if we don't have MONSTER size or space eaters, I think we do have good positional guys.

I think under on the 1.5 All Americans... 1 would be lovely. To get more than that from a stacked Duke team would be impressive.

I am going to hold off on giving a new over/under as I've given a few so far:)

[flyingdutchdevil]

Over / under: 5.5 double digit scorers (average) by March

[Lord Ash]

Under; I think Kyle, Nolan, Kyrie, Mason... and maybe Seth. But not more than that, and possibly not Mason.

[JasonEvans]

Sorry, Lord Ash, I did not get the theme of the thread. My bad!

Ok, so I'll post one now. This is perhaps the most important over-under of the entire season (aside from: National Championships over-under .5)...

Coach K over-under 902 career victories.

--Jason " ;) " Evans

[Osiagledknarf]

Sorry, Lord Ash, I did not get the theme of the thread. My bad!

Ok, so I'll post one now. This is perhaps the most important over-under of the entire season (aside from: National Championships over-under .5)...

Coach K over-under 902 career victories.

--Jason " ;) " Evans

I am saying he gets it. We are the arguably best team, who is the defending national champions, and have all the pieces to do it again.

Over/Under 5 starts for Ryan Kelly

[jimsumner]

Some historical precedents.

Number of Duke players who averaged over 7 apg. Two, Dick Groat and Bobby Hurley, although Hurley did it 4 times.

Number of times an ACC school has had two consensus first-team All-Americans. Three. Jordan and Perkins, 1984. Battier and Jason Williams, 2001. Redick and Shelden Williams, 2006. Although the sample size is small, it appears that either Singler or Smith will have to change their last name to Williams.

However. In 1979, Gminski (1st team), Spanarkel (1st team) and Banks (3rd team) all made the UPI A-A team. Only Gminski (2nd team) made AP that year.

Ironically, all three had better seasons in 1978, when none of them made A-A. Probably a message there.

One that hasn't been mentioned yet. In 2002 Jason Williams, Carlos Boozer and Mike Dunleavy were selected first-team All-ACC, the only time one team has had three first-teamers. Duke came close in 1978, 1979, and 1999, with Banks, Banks and Avery just missing being named 1st-team.

Can Singler, Smith and Irving duplicate that? History suggests not.

In case you're wondering about freshmen making first-team All-ACC.

Skip Wise, Clemson, 1975.
Kenny Anderson, GT 1990
Stephon Marbury, GT 1996
Antawn Jamison, UNC 1996
Tyler Hansbrough, UNC 2007

The only Duke player to come close was Banks in 1978.

[Starter]

Some historical precedents.

Number of Duke players who averaged over 7 apg. Two, Dick Groat and Bobby Hurley, although Hurley did it 4 times.

Number of times an ACC school has had two consensus first-team All-Americans. Three. Jordan and Perkins, 1984. Battier and Jason Williams, 2001. Redick and Shelden Williams, 2006. Although the sample size is small, it appears that either Singler or Smith will have to change their last name to Williams.

However. In 1979, Gminski (1st team), Spanarkel (1st team) and Banks (3rd team) all made the UPI A-A team. Only Gminski (2nd team) made AP that year.

Ironically, all three had better seasons in 1978, when none of them made A-A. Probably a message there.

One that hasn't been mentioned yet. In 2002 Jason Williams, Carlos Boozer and Mike Dunleavy were selected first-team All-ACC, the only time one team has had three first-teamers. Duke came close in 1978, 1979, and 1999, with Banks, Banks and Avery just missing being named 1st-team.

Can Singler, Smith and Irving duplicate that? History suggests not.

In case you're wondering about freshmen making first-team All-ACC.

Skip Wise, Clemson, 1975.
Kenny Anderson, GT 1990
Stephon Marbury, GT 1996
Antawn Jamison, UNC 1996
Tyler Hansbrough, UNC 2007

The only Duke player to come close was Banks in 1978.

Interesting stuff, thanks Jim. I think this probably throws some cold water on the notion that Kyrie would get seven assists (which I thought he had a legit shot with his skills and 7 APG average in high school). Maybe he tops out somewhere around where Duhon did, which was 6.4. But Kyrie's scoring ability, in addition to our balanced system, may just supersede it.

How about: Over/under ACC losses -- 3.5

[JasonEvans]

How about: Over/under ACC losses -- 3.5

Oh, I will take the under there, for sure. I am thinking 15-1 in the ACC this year. Yeah, we are that good ;)

Games where Duke scores more than 100 points - over/under 6

--Jason "off to do some research-- back in a moment" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Games where Duke scores more than 100 points - over/under 6

--Jason "off to do some research-- back in a moment" Evans

Total number of 100 point games by Duke, by year --

2009-10 - 4
2008-09 - 1
2007-08 - 2
2006-07 - 0
2005-06 - 2
2004-05 - 2
2003-04 - 0
2002-03 - 2
2001-02 - 6
2000-01 - 7
1999-00 - 4
1998-99 - 9

--Jason "hmmmm, I think my over/under is a good target" Evans

[DukieBoy]

Oh, I will take the under there, for sure. I am thinking 15-1 in the ACC this year. Yeah, we are that good ;)

Games where Duke scores more than 100 points - over/under 6

--Jason "off to do some research-- back in a moment" Evans

I'll take over. We can definitely do it against the non-conference "weak" teams (Colgate, Bradley, St. Loius, Elon, Alabama-Birmingham, Temple) and that's just for starters. I could see us squeaking one or two out in the conference season.

Over/under - 1.5 references to Duke being "alarmingly unathletic"

[MisterRoddy]

I'll take over. We can definitely do it against the non-conference "weak" teams (Colgate, Bradley, St. Loius, Elon, Alabama-Birmingham, Temple) and that's just for starters. I could see us squeaking one or two out in the conference season.

Over/under - 1.5 references to Duke being "alarmingly unathletic"

Under. They've learned their lesson.

Over/Under: 5 20+ point games for Kyrie Irving.

[Osiagledknarf]

I'll take over. We can definitely do it against the non-conference "weak" teams (Colgate, Bradley, St. Loius, Elon, Alabama-Birmingham, Temple) and that's just for starters. I could see us squeaking one or two out in the conference season.

Over/under - 1.5 references to Duke being "alarmingly unathletic"

I think we guys like Dre and KI on the floor, there will be no mention of unathletic in this team. I go UNDER!!

As far as the question before me, John Wall at Kentucky last year had 8 20 point+ games as a freshman last season. Though, he didn't have as nearly as depth roster with guys like Nolan, Singler, Curry, Dawkins, and other guys who can also score like Kelly and the Plumlees. I am going with the push on that.


Over/Under 4 10+ assist games for KI.

[Daniel tosh]

I think we guys like Dre and KI on the floor, there will be no mention of unathletic in this team. I go UNDER!!

As far as the question before me, John Wall at Kentucky last year had 8 20 point+ games as a freshman last season. Though, he didn't have as nearly as depth roster with guys like Nolan, Singler, Curry, Dawkins, and other guys who can also score like Kelly and the Plumlees. I am going with the push on that.


Over/Under 4 10+ assist games for KI.

Over.KI is gonna have such a talented,experienced team around him,I think he gets 6-7 10+ assist games.

Over/Under 7.5 rebounds PG for Miles

[SCMatt33]

Over.KI is gonna have such a talented,experienced team around him,I think he gets 6-7 10+ assist games.

Over/Under 7.5 rebounds PG for Miles

Over. He should get good minutes at the 5 spot and with a more stretched out defense he should see a lot of boards.

Over/Under: 14.5 weeks at number 1 in the AP poll. For reference there are currently 19 polls in a year and in the last ten years Duke hasn't beaten this with exactly 14 weeks in 2002 and 2006. The only time I found that we beat it was 1992 when Duke was 1 for the entire year.

[Osiagledknarf]

Over. He should get good minutes at the 5 spot and with a more stretched out defense he should see a lot of boards.

Over/Under: 14.5 weeks at number 1 in the AP poll. For reference there are currently 19 polls in a year and in the last ten years Duke hasn't beaten this with exactly 14 weeks in 2002 and 2006. The only time I found that we beat it was 1992 when Duke was 1 for the entire year.

I say under. For as good as this team is, they still have a lot of tough games to start the year, with games vs. Kansas State/Marquette, Butler, Michigan State to start off the year and then the ACC schedule with teams like N.C State and UNC. I am saying we lost a game on the long way. I think we end the season at #1, but I think we have a couple losses during the regular season.

Over/Under 0.5 times Austin Rivers seen at a game with a Duke shirt on.

[_TheFakeJWill_]

I say under. For as good as this team is, they still have a lot of tough games to start the year, with games vs. Kansas State/Marquette, Butler, Michigan State to start off the year and then the ACC schedule with teams like N.C State and UNC. I am saying we lost a game on the long way. I think we end the season at #1, but I think we have a couple losses during the regular season.

Over/Under 0.5 times Austin Rivers seen at a game with a Duke shirt on.
buhahaha i say over. Atleast 2.
over/under: Any player has 35 pts in one game this year?!

[Osiagledknarf]

buhahaha i say over. Atleast 2.
over/under: Any player has 35 pts in one game this year?!

I am gonna say under. With the balance we have on the offensive side of the ball, I think we will have the wealth spread around a lot. We will have a lot of big efforts, but I don't think one player will have to carry us like that.

Over/Under .5 buzz beaters to win a game.

[nocilla]

I am gonna say under. With the balance we have on the offensive side of the ball, I think we will have the wealth spread around a lot. We will have a lot of big efforts, but I don't think one player will have to carry us like that.

Over/Under .5 buzz beaters to win a game.

I say over. I know the thought might be that we won't see many close games with the talent on this team, but inevitably there will be some close games (some expected and some unexpected) and we have a few clutch shooters that could hit buzzer beaters.

O/U - 7 Dick Vitale references to the Dukies in any non-conference UNC game.

[flyingdutchdevil]

O/U - 7 Dick Vitale references to the Dukies in any non-conference UNC game.

Nice one. I'd have to say under. I'm sure that Dickie V gets a talking to before every non-Duke game to really limit the number of 'Duke' references. I'd still say he references Duke 2-4 times during a non-conference UNC game, though.

Over / under: 2.5 black eyes for Kyle Singler

[johnb]

O/U for the year: 34 wins

Losses to Carolina: 0.001

Number drafted in 2011 NBA lottery: 2

Wins in the NCAA tournament: 5

[DukieBoy]

O/U for the year: 34 wins

Losses to Carolina: 0.001

Number drafted in 2011 NBA lottery: 2

Wins in the NCAA tournament: 5

1. Push - 34 seems just about right
2. Under - No explanation necessary
3. Push - Kyrie and Kyle for sure. I don't think Nolan sneaks in there
4. Over (I'm saying a national title, but I don't know what the new format is)

O/U 32 point win against UNC

[SCMatt33]

Nice one. I'd have to say under. I'm sure that Dickie V gets a talking to before every non-Duke game to really limit the number of 'Duke' references. I'd still say he references Duke 2-4 times during a non-conference UNC game, though.

Over / under: 2.5 black eyes for Kyle Singler

Under. Zoubs is gone.

Over/Under: Number 1.5 overall seed in NCAA tourney

[basket1544]

Over / under: 2.5 black eyes for Kyle Singler

I like this one...
I'll go with over on this one because while Zoubs is gone he's still got to fight 2 Plums in practice.

Over/under: Seth Curry with 2.75 steals per game

[flyingdutchdevil]

Under. Zoubs is gone.

Over/Under: Number 1.5 overall seed in NCAA tourney

Under. As with 2006, I'd gladly put money on us being a 1-seed next year.

[Indoor66]

Under. As with 2006, I'd gladly put money on us being a 1-seed next year.
I agree.

Over/under: Duke is the overall #1 seed.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Over / Under: 1.5 times ESPN shows Sonya Curry during home games