Patrick Yates
05-31-2007, 10:18 AM
http://rivalshoops.rivals.com/
Above is a link to an interview with GM conducted at the recent MDC AAU event in Memphis (it is one the right hand side, just click on the monroe link). Needless to say, he is an exciting talent.
But, he does not sound anything like a lock, or even a lean, for Duke.
If you listen to the commentator, near the end she quotes GM as saying he hopes to trim the list to 5 this summer and make a decision next spring.
As I said in an earlier post, I really think that many of the 1 and dones will begin waiting to see where they are needed the most. Not that they cannot play anywhere, but where can they maximize their PT and shot attempts.
Unfortunately, this is not good news for Duke. We may desperately need a post next year, and I worry about putting all our eggs in a basket that may not even have a solid list until after many rising seniors have made up their minds. This scares the bejeezus out of me. Many people on this board have been talking about how good we will be when GM gets here.
What is that based on? He has said good things about Duke? In today's world, these kids, especially the ones at the top of the rankings, are media savvy enough to know that they should fawn over every program just in case.
Unfortunately for us, Duke might not be very attractive next spring. If LT and BZ improve as many expect/hope, and if KS is as good as advertised, our front court could be very crowded next year. Not that GM isn't better than BZ and LT (probably), but those two guys could show enough improvement to merrit serious minutes even if GM comes. If KS sticks arround for his sophmore year, Duke is not that attractive compared to other suitors.
We can whine about it till the cows come home, but K has shown a marked dislike of playing two true bigs at the same time, much less three. The last time it was successful was 01 when Shane, Dun, and Booz were on the court, but that was really one post (booz), one inside out combo (really a 3) in Battier, and one perimeter oriented 3 in Dun. And really Shane was such a special competitor/team player that any combination would work with him out there.
We never got great production from Shel and Shav, nor really Shel and McBob, because all the players were best in the low post. If BZ looks good, the low post will be awfully crowded for GM, especially if KS is also down there, to say nothing of a gutsy LT whose play will probably be at least very solid next year.
Now, if these improvements happen, Duke will be OK to very good even. But, another low post Stud would really help. I was kind of hoping to lock one up this summer, with another one this fall or next spring. But, the summer get needs to be GM. If Duke lands another post, I do not see GM jumping on board.
Fact is, KY and LSU (and possibly TX or FL) will be very attractive also. LSU, if Randolf is one and done as expected, will be very talent thin. This means plenty of shots, but maybe LSU will be so weak that teams can collapse on GM. Still, the pressure to stay home and save the LSU program will be intense in the wake of Katrina's devastation. C'mon, local boy staying home to resurrect the state school after a disaster? That is a great story, and media platform, from whence much advertising riches will flow.
KY is more intriguing. KY will have good talent in place, but no one good enough to overshadow GM. They will be just good enought to compliment GM and showcase him as KY returns to glory under BG. Plenty of PT and shots available, and a media glare probably second only to the triangle.
GM could go to any school. If he waits until next spring, an even more attractive opportunity could arrise at a marquee school teaming with solid talent but needing a star in a way that Duke might not. We will be good to very good without GM (unless LT and/or BZ/or KS) are busts or suffer injuries (knock on wood). But, we can be great with GM (or another athletic big with good defensive skills).
Now, some of you will point to the possibility of playing on said elite squad to attract GM. Why? Lasy year GO went to the NC, and his team was a national elite virtually all year long. Durant played on a young Texas team that won nothing. No conference crown, no tourney title, and didn't even make the sweet sixteen.
And next year, Durant might make twice as much in endorsement money. Contractually, Durant will only make a few hundred thousand dollars (Not really a lot to these guys) less on their first contract, and then will probably sign max deals the same as Oden afterwards.
If Durant had gone to a loaded team, his numbers wouldn't have been so guady, and Nike wouldn't be dangling a 80m shoe deal. GM will be a high draft pick whereever, so he has to look at merchandising. Yes, if he came to Duke, and led us to the NC, his profile would be high. But, what are the odds of a freshman pulling a Carmelo at Duke? KS might be the face of our program, or Henderson, or (god forbid) even Paulus.
GM probably wants to be the face of his college team, and Duke might not be it. People, temper the expectations on this kid. I see less and less evidence that he is anywhere close to a lock for Duke. I trust that the staff is pursuing other options in the post, but I sure would like to see some evidence of those plans. Otherwise, we will have to wait on GM until sometime after next years Draft Deadline to see if we get him.
Patrick Yates
Above is a link to an interview with GM conducted at the recent MDC AAU event in Memphis (it is one the right hand side, just click on the monroe link). Needless to say, he is an exciting talent.
But, he does not sound anything like a lock, or even a lean, for Duke.
If you listen to the commentator, near the end she quotes GM as saying he hopes to trim the list to 5 this summer and make a decision next spring.
As I said in an earlier post, I really think that many of the 1 and dones will begin waiting to see where they are needed the most. Not that they cannot play anywhere, but where can they maximize their PT and shot attempts.
Unfortunately, this is not good news for Duke. We may desperately need a post next year, and I worry about putting all our eggs in a basket that may not even have a solid list until after many rising seniors have made up their minds. This scares the bejeezus out of me. Many people on this board have been talking about how good we will be when GM gets here.
What is that based on? He has said good things about Duke? In today's world, these kids, especially the ones at the top of the rankings, are media savvy enough to know that they should fawn over every program just in case.
Unfortunately for us, Duke might not be very attractive next spring. If LT and BZ improve as many expect/hope, and if KS is as good as advertised, our front court could be very crowded next year. Not that GM isn't better than BZ and LT (probably), but those two guys could show enough improvement to merrit serious minutes even if GM comes. If KS sticks arround for his sophmore year, Duke is not that attractive compared to other suitors.
We can whine about it till the cows come home, but K has shown a marked dislike of playing two true bigs at the same time, much less three. The last time it was successful was 01 when Shane, Dun, and Booz were on the court, but that was really one post (booz), one inside out combo (really a 3) in Battier, and one perimeter oriented 3 in Dun. And really Shane was such a special competitor/team player that any combination would work with him out there.
We never got great production from Shel and Shav, nor really Shel and McBob, because all the players were best in the low post. If BZ looks good, the low post will be awfully crowded for GM, especially if KS is also down there, to say nothing of a gutsy LT whose play will probably be at least very solid next year.
Now, if these improvements happen, Duke will be OK to very good even. But, another low post Stud would really help. I was kind of hoping to lock one up this summer, with another one this fall or next spring. But, the summer get needs to be GM. If Duke lands another post, I do not see GM jumping on board.
Fact is, KY and LSU (and possibly TX or FL) will be very attractive also. LSU, if Randolf is one and done as expected, will be very talent thin. This means plenty of shots, but maybe LSU will be so weak that teams can collapse on GM. Still, the pressure to stay home and save the LSU program will be intense in the wake of Katrina's devastation. C'mon, local boy staying home to resurrect the state school after a disaster? That is a great story, and media platform, from whence much advertising riches will flow.
KY is more intriguing. KY will have good talent in place, but no one good enough to overshadow GM. They will be just good enought to compliment GM and showcase him as KY returns to glory under BG. Plenty of PT and shots available, and a media glare probably second only to the triangle.
GM could go to any school. If he waits until next spring, an even more attractive opportunity could arrise at a marquee school teaming with solid talent but needing a star in a way that Duke might not. We will be good to very good without GM (unless LT and/or BZ/or KS) are busts or suffer injuries (knock on wood). But, we can be great with GM (or another athletic big with good defensive skills).
Now, some of you will point to the possibility of playing on said elite squad to attract GM. Why? Lasy year GO went to the NC, and his team was a national elite virtually all year long. Durant played on a young Texas team that won nothing. No conference crown, no tourney title, and didn't even make the sweet sixteen.
And next year, Durant might make twice as much in endorsement money. Contractually, Durant will only make a few hundred thousand dollars (Not really a lot to these guys) less on their first contract, and then will probably sign max deals the same as Oden afterwards.
If Durant had gone to a loaded team, his numbers wouldn't have been so guady, and Nike wouldn't be dangling a 80m shoe deal. GM will be a high draft pick whereever, so he has to look at merchandising. Yes, if he came to Duke, and led us to the NC, his profile would be high. But, what are the odds of a freshman pulling a Carmelo at Duke? KS might be the face of our program, or Henderson, or (god forbid) even Paulus.
GM probably wants to be the face of his college team, and Duke might not be it. People, temper the expectations on this kid. I see less and less evidence that he is anywhere close to a lock for Duke. I trust that the staff is pursuing other options in the post, but I sure would like to see some evidence of those plans. Otherwise, we will have to wait on GM until sometime after next years Draft Deadline to see if we get him.
Patrick Yates