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Patrick Yates
05-31-2007, 09:18 AM
http://rivalshoops.rivals.com/

Above is a link to an interview with GM conducted at the recent MDC AAU event in Memphis (it is one the right hand side, just click on the monroe link). Needless to say, he is an exciting talent.

But, he does not sound anything like a lock, or even a lean, for Duke.

If you listen to the commentator, near the end she quotes GM as saying he hopes to trim the list to 5 this summer and make a decision next spring.

As I said in an earlier post, I really think that many of the 1 and dones will begin waiting to see where they are needed the most. Not that they cannot play anywhere, but where can they maximize their PT and shot attempts.

Unfortunately, this is not good news for Duke. We may desperately need a post next year, and I worry about putting all our eggs in a basket that may not even have a solid list until after many rising seniors have made up their minds. This scares the bejeezus out of me. Many people on this board have been talking about how good we will be when GM gets here.

What is that based on? He has said good things about Duke? In today's world, these kids, especially the ones at the top of the rankings, are media savvy enough to know that they should fawn over every program just in case.

Unfortunately for us, Duke might not be very attractive next spring. If LT and BZ improve as many expect/hope, and if KS is as good as advertised, our front court could be very crowded next year. Not that GM isn't better than BZ and LT (probably), but those two guys could show enough improvement to merrit serious minutes even if GM comes. If KS sticks arround for his sophmore year, Duke is not that attractive compared to other suitors.

We can whine about it till the cows come home, but K has shown a marked dislike of playing two true bigs at the same time, much less three. The last time it was successful was 01 when Shane, Dun, and Booz were on the court, but that was really one post (booz), one inside out combo (really a 3) in Battier, and one perimeter oriented 3 in Dun. And really Shane was such a special competitor/team player that any combination would work with him out there.

We never got great production from Shel and Shav, nor really Shel and McBob, because all the players were best in the low post. If BZ looks good, the low post will be awfully crowded for GM, especially if KS is also down there, to say nothing of a gutsy LT whose play will probably be at least very solid next year.

Now, if these improvements happen, Duke will be OK to very good even. But, another low post Stud would really help. I was kind of hoping to lock one up this summer, with another one this fall or next spring. But, the summer get needs to be GM. If Duke lands another post, I do not see GM jumping on board.

Fact is, KY and LSU (and possibly TX or FL) will be very attractive also. LSU, if Randolf is one and done as expected, will be very talent thin. This means plenty of shots, but maybe LSU will be so weak that teams can collapse on GM. Still, the pressure to stay home and save the LSU program will be intense in the wake of Katrina's devastation. C'mon, local boy staying home to resurrect the state school after a disaster? That is a great story, and media platform, from whence much advertising riches will flow.

KY is more intriguing. KY will have good talent in place, but no one good enough to overshadow GM. They will be just good enought to compliment GM and showcase him as KY returns to glory under BG. Plenty of PT and shots available, and a media glare probably second only to the triangle.

GM could go to any school. If he waits until next spring, an even more attractive opportunity could arrise at a marquee school teaming with solid talent but needing a star in a way that Duke might not. We will be good to very good without GM (unless LT and/or BZ/or KS) are busts or suffer injuries (knock on wood). But, we can be great with GM (or another athletic big with good defensive skills).

Now, some of you will point to the possibility of playing on said elite squad to attract GM. Why? Lasy year GO went to the NC, and his team was a national elite virtually all year long. Durant played on a young Texas team that won nothing. No conference crown, no tourney title, and didn't even make the sweet sixteen.

And next year, Durant might make twice as much in endorsement money. Contractually, Durant will only make a few hundred thousand dollars (Not really a lot to these guys) less on their first contract, and then will probably sign max deals the same as Oden afterwards.

If Durant had gone to a loaded team, his numbers wouldn't have been so guady, and Nike wouldn't be dangling a 80m shoe deal. GM will be a high draft pick whereever, so he has to look at merchandising. Yes, if he came to Duke, and led us to the NC, his profile would be high. But, what are the odds of a freshman pulling a Carmelo at Duke? KS might be the face of our program, or Henderson, or (god forbid) even Paulus.

GM probably wants to be the face of his college team, and Duke might not be it. People, temper the expectations on this kid. I see less and less evidence that he is anywhere close to a lock for Duke. I trust that the staff is pursuing other options in the post, but I sure would like to see some evidence of those plans. Otherwise, we will have to wait on GM until sometime after next years Draft Deadline to see if we get him.

Patrick Yates

watzone
05-31-2007, 09:41 AM
Keep in mind that Greg is the Nike Poster Boy. Nike would like to see him stretch it out as long as possible;) He is their big draw on the AAU circuit and maybe, just maybe, they have persuaded him to stay open in the publics eye. (meaning not trim his list too soon) Greg will trim the list to five or six this summer. I am certain Duke will be on that list.

One more thing. Where have you seen that he was a lock? Is there a link to a source on this? He liked Duke a lot growing up and spoke highly of them last season. Still, I have never seen him as a lock, but I refuse to think we don't stand a good shot and I'm glad we are in it. This is no PP situation. His Mom will not pop up and say "we shocked the world," in the pc before her son can utter a word.

jimsumner
05-31-2007, 10:57 AM
Patrick,

I think the optimism stems from two factors. One is that Monroe has said some very nice things about Duke, long-time fan, dream school, honor to play for Coach K, things of that nature. Second is that Krzyzewski early on identified Monroe as the key recruit from the class of '08. This year's Kyle Singler, if you will. K doesn't always get everybody he wants and nobody gets a consensus number one player without a fight. But K's fill record is pretty good in this area.

That said, Duke has indicated that it will be visible and active on this summer's prep circuit. I can't believe there won't be other options.

Clipsfan
05-31-2007, 01:35 PM
Patrick,

Interesting comments, and there is definitely truth to the thought that until someone commits (and even afterwards, at times) we do not know what they think.

One little thing: Although endorsements bring big money, so do the early lottery contracts. Durant will probably be making closer to $4 mil per year rather than a few hundred thousand.

SilkyJ
05-31-2007, 02:16 PM
Durant will probably be making closer to $4 mil per year rather than a few hundred thousand.


http://rivalshoops.rivals.com/

And next year, Durant might make twice as much in endorsement money. Contractually, Durant will only make a few hundred thousand dollars (Not really a lot to these guys) less on their first contract, and then will probably sign max deals the same as Oden afterwards.


What patrick was saying is that the DIFFERENCE between Durant's and Oden's initial contract will be a few hundred thousand.

Patrick Yates
05-31-2007, 02:57 PM
Keep in mind that Greg is the Nike Poster Boy. Nike would like to see him stretch it out as long as possible;) He is their big draw on the AAU circuit and maybe, just maybe, they have persuaded him to stay open in the publics eye. (meaning not trim his list too soon) Greg will trim the list to five or six this summer. I am certain Duke will be on that list.

One more thing. Where have you seen that he was a lock? Is there a link to a source on this? He liked Duke a lot growing up and spoke highly of them last season. Still, I have never seen him as a lock, but I refuse to think we don't stand a good shot and I'm glad we are in it. This is no PP situation. His Mom will not pop up and say "we shocked the world," in the pc before her son can utter a word.

Sorry if I was unclear. I have not seen any reputable source saying that he was a lock. I was merely commenting on how some people on this board are treating him like a lock, or if not a lock, then a very strong lean in mold of Singler.

I was trying to reiterate that no other source seems to indicate his Duke leanings.

Patrick Yates

JasonEvans
05-31-2007, 03:06 PM
I am a little confused--

Your concern is that Zoub and others will play so well this year that it will give Monroe pause about coming to Duke because his playing time may be negatively impacted.

Dude, I say BRING IT ON!! I'd love to have that problem in the recruitment of a mega-stud like Monroe. If he thinks his playing time opportunities at Duke are limited it means we have a ROCK SOLID squad. Sweet!!

I don't think playing time is a big concern of a kid like Greg. Anyone good enough to keep his playing time down is probably going to be NBA draft bound anyway.

Still, I think your concern is more that the current bigs will be ok, but not great, and that we won't have any other possibilities for a big man if GM says no to us at a late date. I agree that has to be something to be worried about but I am not sure what we can do about it -- unless you think we should give up on GM. I do not feel comfortable about offering to some other top big man and then over-recruiting him by bringing in GM in the very same year. The reality of recruiting is that sometimes you have to just wait and hope. In cases like that, Duke tends to win a lot more than we lose. I think the PP situation may have soured some folks memories of how well we do when we really want a kid.

One final thing-- while we want GM badly, our "fall back" would seem to be a front-line of junior-versions of LT and Zoub along with a soph-verison of Singler. Not too shabby!!

-Jason "trust recruiting to K, that's a good idea" Evans

kydevil
05-31-2007, 04:34 PM
I can't see GM not coming due to the fear of not enought PT. If that is the case though I won't be to upset we don't get him. That would mean that Lt and Zoobs played very solid and will be great as Jr's. If GM is afraid of competition for PT then he can go elsewhere, I would love to have him and I think we have a great shot.

P.S. Marvin Williams didn't even start for UNC and went # 2.

kramerbr
05-31-2007, 07:43 PM
How serious is Duke about going after F Erik Murphy? From what I've heard he appears to be a player similar to Kyle Singler.....so I doubt he would be somewhat of a backup if Monroe doesn't come?

3rdgenDukie
05-31-2007, 07:49 PM
I agree GM is far from a lock, but when K singles out a kid early as the OVERWHELMING #1 choice, he usually gets his man. Singler spooked people after visiting UCLA and UW. JJ, Josh and Deng committed too early to raise much nervousness, but Battier took looks at KU, MSU and UNC before committing. Duhon was courted hard by UK. Livingston was obviously a huge threat to go to UI. The last big-time recruit that was identified real early as the #1 guy might have been Vince Carter.

I think, in the end, we get GM. I also think that if Z and Lance have good years, it HELPS, as he seems more interested in playing a game all over the court, rather than anchoring the post.

I also think that Elliot Williams MAY wind up being more important, as the biggest question after next year may very well be 'who is going to replace Hondo as the perimeter uber-athlete?'.

jimsumner
05-31-2007, 08:35 PM
FWIW, Eric Murphy is in the class of '09.

Saratoga2
06-01-2007, 06:53 AM
Last year Florida won with Horford, Noah and Brewer starting. In addition, they had Chris Richard, Adrian Moss and Jimmie Sutton. Those three were ranging from 6'8" to 6'10" and were in the 250 pound range. They were deep in that position, could bang and give up fouls and keep fresh people in at all times.

I can see Duke adding a couple of bruisers so that we won't have to rely solely on Thomas, Zoubek and Singler. None of those guys are the bruiser types unless they get much stronger this year. If we get Monroe, that will be nice but he is probably a 25% chance at this point. It would be smart to go after one more big man who is willing to commit in the fall so the team will be deeper at the big position, regardless of what Monroe wants to do.

freedevil
06-01-2007, 07:57 AM
I wish Duke had at least a semblance of depth on the frontline like Florida had this year. Just one guy like Chris Richard would have been a huge difference maker. I bang my head against the wall when I see other programs constantly finding these guys. Instead of converting Shav into a Richard-type player, why can't we just find a Richard-type to begin with?

Regardless, let's get Greg. Go DUKE!

Patrick Yates
06-01-2007, 09:20 AM
The above two points are right on. I see FL last year (and UNC, G-Town) et al with deep front lines. True, the backups are notably a step down from the starters (else they'd be starters elsewhere).

At Duke, we seem to have the opposite. We are exteremely deep on the perimeter, with the prospect of getting deeper.

As it stands now, Duke is sure to lose only DN next year when he graduates. True, we could lose GH, but if he explodes to the point of being good enough to leave next year Duke will have a very good year. (I say this because of GH's financial situation is such that he does not need to jump to the pros at the first opportunity. Given his family's situation, and the high access to insider info available to him through Duke and family friends, I cannot imagine GH leving unless he were assured of being a fairly high lottery pick, a la top 10 at least. Given next year's depth at guard in the draft, if GH is a lock for the top 10, he will have had a great year and Duke will have exceeded most expectations.) If we lose GH after his Jr year I will not be surprised at all.

Given that we stand to lose only DN, we are still involved with numerous wing guards over the next 1-3 years. We are after Eliot Williams, who sounds like a great kid. He also sounds like a Nolan Smith clone. Given that Scheyer plays that same position, and that Duke is heavy after a Jr PG AND another TN WG who is a Willams/Smith clone, it seems certain that Duke is going to be overloaded at the guard for the forseeable future. Because, Paulus is going nowhere, and I think that Marty will be a key player in that rotation also. Our perimeter Depth has been well documented and discussed on this board.

Unfortunately, I believe this to be a holdover type of planning from the era of jump to the pros from HS. Then, many (if not all) the preps to pros were big men. Since there was a dearth of super-talented, super athletic bigs, it made sense to be powerful at the guard position. Heck, once bigs got to college they didn't really have to excell to be pro bait. As soon as a resonably athletic 6-10 player proved he could catch the ball and block a shot, the pros were on him like stink on poo. Duke excelled in this period by attracting bigs who needed 2-3 years of polishing to be ready for the pros. It only took two, or really even 1, of these solid to good posts (great by the time they left Duke) to be successful. Throw in a solid to great guard rotation and you have the makings of a national championship contender.

Those days are done. HSers now have to go to college, if only for 1 year, and it is becoming clearer that many of these superstars have no interest in Duke. Note, this is not due to any failing of the coaching staff. Many of these elite low post studs are not focused on academics, and as such they do not want to bust their rears doing Duke course-work for a year as they prep for the draft. That is assuming the kids could even get into Duke in the first place.

GM seems to be the exception to the above rule, so lets hope we get him. But, if we do get him, I doubt he will be at Duke for any extended period of time. Also, there will not be a GM every year, or even every other year, and Duke cannot count on signing such a player.

So, I agree with the above poster who thinks we need more bigs. I would love to have some low post bangers, who do little more than rebound, play D, and hit point blank garbage shots. I beleive that a deeper rotation, beyond the current 1-2 (LT really should be able to spend more time on the perimeter, cause that is where he will play in the pros) bigs we have. This would give us more leeway in foul/injury situations. Also, think how great KS could be if he were really allowed to step away from the low post on a consistent basis to drain mid-range jumpers and direct traffic. Sort of more offensively skilled version of Brewer as two bigs really ground it out in the post.

I do trust the coaching staff, up to a point. But, to play the devil's advocate, they have been off when it comes to posts recently. Yes, they have had successes, but they have had many misses also. With Brand, we had Burgess, Boozer had Sanders, Sheldon had Shav, and Thompson, Boateng, and now McBob have failed to live up to expectations in varying degrees. Of course the names Newton, Beard, and others have to be mentioned here.

We cannot do anything about it, but our misses have been spectacular. It is one thing when a kid rated in the 50-150 range flames out. Hey, you take a chance, you win some, you lose some. I can deal with that. What I cannot deal with is us miss evaluating a top ranked kid. That is why I would like to see duke go after some of these lower ranked, yet valuable, low post bangers. Some of these kids must know that the NBA is a long shot, and a Duke degree might be very attractive to them.

I fear that the landscape of collge ball has changed, and this change has not and will not benefit Duke, with many of the one-and-dones opting for easier school work elsewhere. We may need to change our strategy.

Patrick Yates