JJ among the top SGs in the NBA

[JasonEvans]

Not my opinion, it is the opinion of Kelly Dwyer at Ball Don't Lie (http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/blog/ball_dont_lie/post/Ranking-the-shooting-guards-20-through-11;_ylt=AlQqYOTiwbfhaxRvewCt_r.8vLYF?urn=nba-263645).

He ranks the top 30 SGs in the NBA. Vinsanity comes in at #23.

About JJ, he says--


17. J.J. Redick, Orlando Magic (last year: unranked)

If Redick starts, his all-around game (you heard me) could be the salve that puts Orlando back into the Finals. Because as great as Miami can be, guarding four 3-point shooters and an all-world center at once is a pretty tough task, and Redick's passing and driving ability after the close out (something Mickael Pietrus(notes) is wholly uninterested in) could be a difference-maker. Or, Stan Van Gundy could continue to treat him like Dana Barros. Stan's call.

By the way, if you want a controversy, look at the top of the rankings...

5. Manu
4. Joe Johnson
3. Brandon Roy
2. Kobe
1. DWade

--Jason "whew, I have a hard time putting Wade ahead of Kobe right now" Evans

[SilkyJ]

Not my opinion, it is the opinion of Kelly Dwyer at Ball Don't Lie (http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/blog/ball_dont_lie/post/Ranking-the-shooting-guards-20-through-11;_ylt=AlQqYOTiwbfhaxRvewCt_r.8vLYF?urn=nba-263645).

Great link, Jason and I definitely agree with you on Wade over Kobe. We all know Kobe's odometer is getting up there, but he just led his team to back to back titles so he clearly isn't over the hill yet.

As for our boy: this is a big year for JJ. Last year he finally got steady minutes and established himself as a reliable SG on a top-tier team. That was enough to earn him the big contract he signed this summer, but you can believe that the Bulls and Magic both believed him to be worth the $20mm based on some amount of continued improvement ("upside") as well. Afterall, JJ has only been in the league 4 years and while he has improved by leaps and bounds, there's no reason why can't steadily improve parts of his game and average ~12ppg next year and up to maybe ~15+ppg in a couple years as he gains a larger role.

As an example, he finally started shooting the ball consistently last year (I'm sure partially because he was finally playing steady minutes and could get into a rhythm) but I'd like to see him improve his consistency a little more and be among the top 10 in 3pt% and FT% (he was #17 (http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/3-points) in both (http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/free-throws) last year). Being on a top-tier team like the Magic with good slashers and a center that commands a double-team, a lot of his 3 pointers are largely uncontested off of drive and kicks or double teams on Howard, and for a guy with a stroke like his, he needs to be knocking down 45% on his 3s and he's more than capable of that.

Interestingly, as I looked at his numbers I saw that while he ranked 17th in 3pt & FT%, he also averaged 1.42 PPS (point per shot), which was the highest of any player on the top 3pt% list (I didn't look outside the top 40). Unfortunately, his 243 made FGs was 57 shy of the 300 needed to qualify for the Top PPS list where his 1.42 would have been good enough to tie Andrew Bynum for 14th (http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/3-points/sort/scoringEfficiency).

Silky "I realized JJ had a a breakout year last year, but until I saw where he landed on some of these lists, I didn't fully appreciate it...and I think he can do even better this year" J

[Lord Ash]

JJ has REALLY gotten good... a consistent scorer (ESPECIALLY when he gets consistent minutes) and an excellent defender. His only problem seems to be Van Gundy, and a few players who make a LOT more money than he does so get a lot of playing time:)

I've kept up on JJ over at the RealGM forums... their Orlando Magic forum is pretty active.

Realgm Forums for Orlando (http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewforum.php?f=25&sid=2327cfbc0ca78c9b4ac9543a396aac46)

It has been very helpful to keep up on how JJ is doing... and I have to say, most of the folks there really seem to appreciate and like JJ, even though a lot of them were very lukewarm on JJ in his first year or two. They frequently talk about how his defense has REALLY picked up, and that he is about the best perimeter defender on the team. Many have actually called on JJ to start.

Here is a recent thread about JJ, possibly starting...

http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=25&t=1046598
(http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=25&t=1046598)
A lot of them also do not love VC.

Only downside? There is a Heel who posts there who always talks about how much JJ sucks, and then insists it is because of how JJ plays in the NBA and has nothing to do with Duke stuff:)

[gumbomoop]

Here is a recent thread about JJ, possibly starting...

http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=25&t=1046598
(http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=25&t=1046598)

Thanks to Lord Ash for this link. I followed it a bit, and it led me to another very interesting link, on JJ's efficiency, regarding which JJ is in some much-respected company. Highly recommended for your edification and enjoyment.

http://www.magicbasketball.net/2010/08/16/for-j-j-redick-its-all-about-efficiency/

Btw, I especially appreciate the author's comment re JJ's ability to make the entry pass, because it astounds me how so relatively few players at any level can do this simple but necessary task. I fairly curse the TV set every time I watch a player on the wing who cannot summon the skill and/or confidence [?] to get the ball to a post player who has established position. It's possible that, in such situations, I am not the only person cursing.

[Greg_Newton]

One has to wonder how JJ would do as the focus of an NBA offense, even if it was just in the 2nd quarter while the B team was in or something. The way he's made his living lately - defense, creating off the dribble, doing all the little things - is great, but he's really yet to tap into what made him the NPOY in college.

Lights out shooters are an interesting breed because they can be dominant offense players in the right system even if they aren't great athletes or even very good players in 1-on-1 scenarios... if they know how to move off the ball, create space, and find the open man when doubleteamed, they can transform from an undersized, below-average athlete with average ball skills (JJ circa 2006) into an NPOY and historically prolific scorer. It's an interesting trade-off - because anyone can put up high-volume numbers when they're the focus like that - but at a certain point, a good enough shooter in that offense will make the team offense better than it would have been if it was run normally (i.e., again, 2006).

We saw how well that worked for JJ in college when he was completely one-dimensional - now that he has become a more complete creator and solidified his status as a legit NBA SG, would a team not benefit from running their offense through him in stretches? After all, that is how his talents have traditionally been best utilized. My gut feeling as that the Orlando egos would make that difficult, but it would sure be an interesting experiment. As strange as it sounds, the right offensive system is probably the only difference between JJ being a role player and star.

[Newton_14]

One has to wonder how JJ would do as the focus of an NBA offense, even if it was just in the 2nd quarter while the B team was in or something. The way he's made his living lately - defense, creating off the dribble, doing all the little things - is great, but he's really yet to tap into what made him the NPOY in college.

Lights out shooters are an interesting breed because they can be dominant offense players in the right system even if they aren't great athletes or even very good players in 1-on-1 scenarios... if they know how to move off the ball, create space, and find the open man when doubleteamed, they can transform from an undersized, below-average athlete with average ball skills (JJ circa 2006) into an NPOY and historically prolific scorer. It's an interesting trade-off - because anyone can put up high-volume numbers when they're the focus like that - but at a certain point, a good enough shooter in that offense will make the team offense better than it would have been if it was run normally (i.e., again, 2006).

We saw how well that worked for JJ in college when he was completely one-dimensional - now that he has become a more complete creator and solidified his status as a legit NBA SG, would a team not benefit from running their offense through him in stretches? After all, that is how his talents have traditionally been best utilized. My gut feeling as that the Orlando egos would make that difficult, but it would sure be an interesting experiment. As strange as it sounds, the right offensive system is probably the only difference between JJ being a role player and star.

I feel the same way. That is one reason I was half hoping that Boston would make JJ an offer. Put JJ in that offense and run the same plays as they run for Ray Allen and see if he could thrive in ways we saw in college. I really hope to one day see JJ have games here and there, where he is on fire and puts up 25+ or something similar.

I know he has it in him. Now that he has earned his way into the rotation by improving his defense, ball-handling, and passing/distributing, he has the opportunity to be on the court long enough to find his rythym as someone else posted. That is key, but he also needs to have the respect from his teammates where they have confidence in him and actually make an effort to get him the ball.

From what I have read, Dwight is one of his best friends on the team and he has confidence in JJ's ability. The other guy's though, just do not seem to have that confidence in him. Hopefully we see the day very soon where the effort to get him the ball is made.

JJ has come a long long way and silenced a lot of critic's who all insisted he would never be a NBA player. Kudos to him for putting in the work and transforming his body and his game. The way things went those first couple of years, he could have easily packed it in and bolted for the Euro League to make lots of money and take as many shots as he wanted...

[brlftz]

i don't think the issue is SVG as much as it's Jameer Nelson. the next pass he throws to JJ will be his first

[yancem]

i don't think the issue is SVG as much as it's Jameer Nelson. the next pass he throws to JJ will be his first

I think that you can put Lewis and Carter in the same category. The few times I got to watch Orlando play last year I found it baffling how often Redick was open on the perimeter and those guys were jacking up contested shots. Hopefully, things will work out well form him with his new contract but I was hoping that he would end up in Chicago or Boston.

[elvis14]

I think that you can put Lewis and Carter in the same category. The few times I got to watch Orlando play last year I found it baffling how often Redick was open on the perimeter and those guys were jacking up contested shots. Hopefully, things will work out well form him with his new contract but I was hoping that he would end up in Chicago or Boston.

I saw the same thing from Nelson, Lewis and Carter. I thought Lewis was the worst of the three. I think Orlando could have made it to the finals again this year if they would have played VC less, JJ more and gotten ANYTHING out of Lewis. Mostly though it was just frustrating to see JJ get ignored by those guys. I guess it would make sense if JJ was making poor decisions and jacking up bad shots but he's not. In fact I thought he was making great decisions.

I hope his playing time increases next year and I'd love to see him start. I continue to be impressed by his attitude and work ethic.

[sagegrouse]

I saw the same thing from Nelson, Lewis and Carter. I thought Lewis was the worst of the three. I think Orlando could have made it to the finals again this year if they would have played VC less, JJ more and gotten ANYTHING out of Lewis. Mostly though it was just frustrating to see JJ get ignored by those guys. I guess it would make sense if JJ was making poor decisions and jacking up bad shots but he's not. In fact I thought he was making great decisions.

I hope his playing time increases next year and I'd love to see him start. I continue to be impressed by his attitude and work ethic.

Here's all that is needed:

SVG: "Boys, this here's my man, JJ. If you don't get him the ball, you'll be sitting right next to me on the bench."

This is precisely what Bones said he told his guards, including Billy Packer, about "his man, Lenny Chappell."

I can't blame the players when the coach is watching every single play of every game....

sagegrouse

[basket1544]

It's my hope that Duhon will teach the other guards (I hesitate to call the shoot-first Nelson and Williams point guards) that passing to JJ is a great thing. From what I've seen, Orlando as a whole is a very selfish team. As for who SVG starts, I don't care because it seems to me that he ends close games with Carter on the bench and JJ on the court.

[duke4life32182]

I have been saying for years that JJ could be a star. A guy that can shoot the way he does, its just a no brainer. I look for JJ to be in the 14 ppg this year and it should be higher than that. If Stan Van would let him shoot 10-14 shots a game Orlando would reap the benefits. I just don't know if JJ will ever get the chance to show his game in Orlando. I hope so though.

[hq2]

I feel the same way. That is one reason I was half hoping that Boston would make JJ an offer. Put JJ in that offense and run the same plays as they run for Ray Allen and see if he could thrive in ways we saw in college. I really hope to one day see JJ have games here and there, where he is on fire and puts up 25+ or something similar.



Precisely. The C's could have had him for the same money as Ray, and he does everything Ray does except he's much younger, and probably a better shooter now too. The C's blew that one.