Duke Basketball Outlook: Five Keys to a fifth championship

[Osiagledknarf]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/423508-duke-basketball-outlook-five-keys-to-a-fifth-championship-in-durham

[sandinmyshoes]

I'd put "avoid key injuries" on top of any list.

[CDu]

I'd put "avoid key injuries" on top of any list.

I agree. And I'd put keys #5 ahead of #3 and #4. If we stay healthy, Irving is great, the Plumlees step up big, and Smith and Singler provide leadership, then it's less of a necessity for Curry, Dawkins, Thornton, Kelly, and Hairston to provide big contributions off the bench.

I'd rate it like this:

1. Avoid key injuries
2a. Plumlees stepping up in the post (especially on defense)
2b. Irving being dynamic and effective (or we could easily make that 2a and the Plumlees 2b)
3. Smith and Singler step up as senior leaders
4. Either Kelly or Hairston (or both) provide solid minutes in support of the Plumlees
5. Curry or Dawkins (or both) provide a scoring threat off the bench.

[4decadedukie]

Quite critically, learn as the season progresses, be a true team with individual goals subordinated to optimized team performance and mutual respect, and have fun.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Wouldn't "Avoid key injuries" be the key to every Duke team? To every basketball team? To every sports team? I think it's so standardized, like "Players play hard," that it's redundant to have in a list such as this.

[MulletMan]

Quite critically, learn as the season progresses,...

This, I think, will be the biggest key for this team. Let's not forget that our key guys last year had 4 (Z, LT, Jon) or 3 (Kyle, Nolan) years to learn their roles, their strengths and how to play together. Not only will this year's team inject new blood, but will totally change the way that they approach the game at both ends of the floor. This team will need to learn how all the pieces fit together, and will be constantly learning.

Its what they do with the December, January, February lessons that will be the key to the March season.

[Duvall]

Wouldn't "Avoid key injuries" be the key to every Duke team? To every basketball team? To every sports team? I think it's so standardized, like "Players play hard," that it's redundant to have in a list such as this.

I think it's safe to say that avoiding key injuries are important to every team, but that it's more important to some teams than others.

Actually, next year's Duke team should be fairly well situated to withstand injuries, especially in comparison to last season. Aside from Singler, Duke should have players that can fill in for guys that get hurt at other spots.

[Bay Area Duke Fan]

It appears that Singler, Smith, Irving, and one of the Plumlees will be starters. What's unclear is whether the fifth starter will be Curry or the other Plumlee.

[sandinmyshoes]

Wouldn't "Avoid key injuries" be the key to every Duke team? To every basketball team? To every sports team? I think it's so standardized, like "Players play hard," that it's redundant to have in a list such as this.

The fact that it is obvious or even "a given" makes it any less of a key. As I posted, it's at the top of my list, and it obviousness is what puts it there.

[flyingdutchdevil]

The fact that it is obvious or even "a given" makes it any less of a key. As I posted, it's at the top of my list, and it obviousness is what puts it there.

Okay. Then shouldn't "Players get along," "Players play hard," "Players get enough sleep," "Players listen to the coach," "Players turn up on time for game day" be on the list as well. Those are "obvious," are they not?

[jjh1080]

I think it needs to be clearly defined as who is a "key" player.

Irving - since he has not proven anything on the college level, I think Seth could take his spot without a problem.
Nolan - Seth might be able to fill in for him but would Seth be able to bring the leadership Nolan should be able to bring next year. Nolan's leadership is key for a repeat.
Kyle - he is key, no one can replace him. Dawkins is no Kyle, yet.
Mason - got some good playing time last year and is seen as a key contributor this year but if Kelly or Hairston can provide what he provided last year he is replaceable.
Miles - he is key. He has the most post experience, started for a while last year. They have no replacement for him. No one else is growing a beard (lol).

This is my opinion only. But I do know that in order to make a run at the National Title you need a "team" and thus an injury here or there could turn things upside down. My confidence is in Coach K, if anyone can do it he will. Having said that, the key is "team."

[sandinmyshoes]

Okay. Then shouldn't "Players get along," "Players play hard," "Players get enough sleep," "Players listen to the coach," "Players turn up on time for game day" be on the list as well. Those are "obvious," are they not?

Indeed, most of that would be in the building chemistry concerns.

[CDu]

I think it needs to be clearly defined as who is a "key" player.

Irving - since he has not proven anything on the college level, I think Seth could take his spot without a problem.
Nolan - Seth might be able to fill in for him but would Seth be able to bring the leadership Nolan should be able to bring next year. Nolan's leadership is key for a repeat.
Kyle - he is key, no one can replace him. Dawkins is no Kyle, yet.
Mason - got some good playing time last year and is seen as a key contributor this year but if Kelly or Hairston can provide what he provided last year he is replaceable.
Miles - he is key. He has the most post experience, started for a while last year. They have no replacement for him. No one else is growing a beard (lol).

This is my opinion only. But I do know that in order to make a run at the National Title you need a "team" and thus an injury here or there could turn things upside down. My confidence is in Coach K, if anyone can do it he will. Having said that, the key is "team."

I'm not terribly concerned about our perimeter guys (injuries notwithstanding of course). With Irving, Smith, Singler, Curry, Dawkins, and Thornton, we have plenty of depth and a nice blend of youth and experience. And of course we have a ton of scoring punch with a variety of skill sets.

My biggest question-mark will be how well the frontcourt guys step up. If they can provide breakeven quality up front, we'll be really tough for anyone to beat. If they provide better than breakeven quality up front, then we are that much tougher. But if they struggle, it does leave us vulnerable.

[superdave]

Jumbo had the point about injuries at the top of every Phase thread last year. If it's good enough for Jumbo....

[DevilHorns]

Jumbo had the point about injuries at the top of every Phase thread last year. If it's good enough for Jumbo....

Haha I thought the same thing. This thread would be a great opportunity for Jumbo to resurface for the off-season.

[cato]

Jumbo had the point about injuries at the top of every Phase thread last year. If it's good enough for Jumbo....

There was a reason for that: the extraordinary lack of dept on the perimeter, and degree to which the team relied on the big 3 + 2. Without any one of the starters, no way that team wins the tourney.

Next year's team will be completely different, and I wouldn't put injuries at the top of the list. Instead, I'd put senior leadership. You only need to go back to '02 to see how difficult it is to replace exceptional senior leadership. Despite the overwhelming talent on that team, when push came to shove there was no clear leader.

There are of course many other important factors, but IMO the most important will be how well Nolan and Kyle step into the role left vacant by Jon, Z and LT.

[DukieInBrasil]

This was actually a pretty reasonable list but I thought that 2 things were worth challenging.
As has been much debated here on DBR, it is by no means certain that either of the MPs will be coming off the bench although it is entirely possible that one of them will. On top of this there is no guarantee that it will be Mason who starts and Miles coming from the bench. I do agree with that point though, that the MPs will need to be able to assert themselves as post players.
The other point (#4) was that the author found it hard to imagine that Duke would have 4 guys consistently score 10+ points in the same game, although 4 guys may average double figures for the season. If Kyrie is able to distribute the ball well, and we know that Nolan and Kyle are good passers and Seth has a good rep for passing as well, I find it very easy to believe that Duke could have 4 or 5 guys scoring 10+ points in pretty much every game (Kyle, Nolan, Seth, Kyrie, and one of MPs/Dawkins/Kelly on a rotating basis).
Overall, I thought it was decent article.

[ElSid]

The fact that it is obvious or even "a given" makes it any less of a key. As I posted, it's at the top of my list, and it obviousness is what puts it there.

wait, how do i disagree with this? the way i treat obvious is that if it meets the definition, you don't have to say it.

[Richard Berg]

Okay. Then shouldn't "Players get along," "Players play hard," "Players get enough sleep," "Players listen to the coach," "Players turn up on time for game day" be on the list as well. Those are "obvious," are they not?.
They are obvious, and they are necessary ingredients, but they're not necessary for a list like this. Why? Because those problems are very unlikely -- on Coach K teams, the concept is almost absurd. Injuries, on the other hand, can strike even the best players at any time.

[hq2]

I think chemistry is going to be the most important item. A lot of the players are replaceable except maybe Kyle, so injuries won't be all that important unless a lot of guys get hurt. However, there's only one ball and a lot of talent out there, and all of those guys think they should be getting minutes/shot opportunities. Making sure everyone is (reasonably) happy with things and playing together will be a major challenge for the coaching staff.