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View Full Version : MBB: Who will be Duke's 5 starters for the 2010-2011 season?



jpfrizzle
07-05-2010, 02:08 PM
Kyle (senior)
Nolan (senior)
Ryan (junior)
Miles (junior)
Kyrie (freshman)

my projected guess

Cockabeau
07-05-2010, 02:10 PM
Kyrie
Curry
Nolan
Kyle
A Plumlee

ricks68
07-05-2010, 02:32 PM
Kyrie
Curry
Nolan
Kyle
M Plumlee

_TheFakeJWill_
07-05-2010, 02:43 PM
lol first off im suprised no one said theres already a thread on this but ill put my 2 cents in

I say:
Irving
Curry
Smith
Singler
Ma. Plumlee

Big Pappa
07-05-2010, 02:52 PM
lol first off im suprised no one said theres already a thread


There are quite a few, but this is the main one:

http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?t=21550

UrinalCake
07-05-2010, 03:15 PM
Yeah, you could pretty much click on any thread on this entire forum and at some point this issue will have been discussed. The bulk of the disagreement can be summarized by "Will Curry start and Kyle play the 4, or will Kyle start with both Plumlees."

Arguments for the former are that Curry is tearing it up in summer play and is too good to not start, while Kyle played well at the 4 his first two years, and we have a ton of depth at guard. Arguments for the latter are that Coach K has publicly stated that Kyle will play the 3, and that seems to be his best position.

I won't offer my own opinion because this issue has already been beaten to death.

Olympic Fan
07-05-2010, 03:33 PM
Kyle (senior)
Nolan (senior)
Ryan (junior)
Miles (junior)
Kyrie (freshman)

my projected guess

Just for the record, Ryan will be a sophomore, not a junior.

_TheFakeJWill_
07-05-2010, 04:03 PM
Just for the record, Ryan will be a sophomore, not a junior.

LOL. sorry but unless Ryan is a 1st team AA i dont see him starting.

Kedsy
07-05-2010, 04:32 PM
LOL. sorry but unless Ryan is a 1st team AA i dont see him starting.

I'm not saying Ryan will or he won't start, but I feel pretty confident we won't have any first team All-Americans starting at the 4 or the 5 in 2010-11 (I'm assuming Kyle will be starting the 3). So Ryan doesn't have to be one of the five best players in the country in order to start. All he has to do is be one of the two best big men on Duke's team. I'm not saying that's an easy thing; I expect both Miles and Mason to be very strong players next year. But "1st team AA"? Come on.

MisterRoddy
07-05-2010, 04:36 PM
I'm not saying Ryan will or he won't start, but I feel pretty confident we won't have any first team All-Americans starting at the 4 or the 5 in 2010-11 (I'm assuming Kyle will be starting the 3). So Ryan doesn't have to be one of the five best players in the country in order to start. All he has to do is be one of the two best big men on Duke's team. I'm not saying that's an easy thing; I expect both Miles and Mason to be very strong players next year. But "1st team AA"? Come on.


I think his statement was a bit of a hyperbole. I believe the point was (which I agree with), Ryan Kelly has to be really good to supplant one of the Plumlees from the starting rotation.

_TheFakeJWill_
07-05-2010, 04:36 PM
I'm not saying Ryan will or he won't start, but I feel pretty confident we won't have any first team All-Americans starting at the 4 or the 5 in 2010-11 (I'm assuming Kyle will be starting the 3). So Ryan doesn't have to be one of the five best players in the country in order to start. All he has to do is be one of the two best big men on Duke's team. I'm not saying that's an easy thing; I expect both Miles and Mason to be very strong players next year. But "1st team AA"? Come on.

My point being that he really really has to be a stud in the preseason or start of the year to start over Mason or Miles.. But id love to see him start cause that means he has improved tremendously!

DevilHorns
07-05-2010, 06:33 PM
http://www.liquidmatrix.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/fdh.jpg

ACCBBallFan
07-05-2010, 06:38 PM
It would not be a starting lineup, but one combo that will be very difficult to guard while Plumlees rest or are in foul trouble:

Kyrie Irving

Seth Curry

Nolan Smith

Kyle Singler

Ryan Kelly

with an outstanding shooter Andre Dawkins at the ready.

I also do not think there will be one starting lineup. It will vary based on opponent.

On BigPappa's site, Paul Hewitt says GA Tech may play small as will UVA. On the other extreme Miami has 255 pound PF and 295 pound center and NC State depending on where they play CJ Leslie could have 266 pound PF and Tracy Smith at center.

Some of the best returning ACC players are PF's. So I do think coach K will match up his best Singler on them: Mike Scott, Joe Trapani, Chris Singleton and Jeff Allen. So counting GA Tech that would be 5 ACC teams where Singler may play more PF and 6 where he likely plays mostly WF, except when Plumlees are in foul trouble where he may get the nod over Josh Hairston in his first season.

Bay Area Duke Fan
07-05-2010, 06:58 PM
LOL. sorry but unless Ryan is a 1st team AA i dont see him starting.

He can't become an AA unless he starts.

MisterRoddy
07-05-2010, 07:08 PM
It would not be a starting lineup, but one combo that will be very difficult to guard while Plumlees rest or are in foul trouble:

Kyrie Irving

Seth Curry

Nolan Smith

Kyle Singler

Ryan Kelly

with an outstanding shooter Andre Dawkins at the ready.

I also do not think there will be one starting lineup. It will vary based on opponent.

On BigPappa's site, Paul Hewitt says GA Tech may play small as will UVA. On the other extreme Miami has 255 pound PF and 295 pound center and NC State depending on where they play CJ Leslie could have 266 pound PF and Tracy Smith at center.

Some of the best returning ACC players are PF's. So I do think coach K will match up his best Singler on them: Mike Scott, Joe Trapani, Chris Singleton and Jeff Allen. So counting GA Tech that would be 5 ACC teams where Singler may play more PF and 6 where he likely plays mostly WF, except when Plumlees are in foul trouble where he may get the nod over Josh Hairston in his first season.

IIRC, I think that's actually a site Airowe created, but BP is definitely a good contributor to it.

Just makin' sure Airowe gets his due while he's been gone.

uh_no
07-05-2010, 07:16 PM
Arguments for the latter are that Coach K has publicly stated that Kyle will play the 3, and that seems to be his best position.


QED.

greybeard
07-05-2010, 07:37 PM
I think that Duke will have two offensive sets, one with four outside players and a pivot and a conventional 3-2, which is how they will start and the Plumlees will be the two. The first sub will likely be a guard and it likely will be Curry and look for a Davidson type offense out of Duke with Kyrie playing the point and Seth playing his brother's position only with much less emphasis on that position.

Singler will guard the 4 and will be the finisher on the secondary break, catching it in the paint in an early offense set up in which the shot will be taken quick.

It will be real, real interesting if the Plumlees can stay out of foul trouble and Kyrie breaks down defenses the way everyone expects. If that happens, both Plumlees might get to stay on the floor together at the beginning of games much longer than I expect, which now is about 5 minutes.

Should the offense go deep into the clock I should be surprised. If it does, who gets the ball with 10 seconds on the clock? "Not a soup question, now is it?"

Saratoga2
07-05-2010, 08:06 PM
Starters

Nolan
Kyle
Mason
Miles
Kyrie

Key backups

Seth
Andre
Ryan
Josh

PT for the back line subs will be substantial. Seth and Andre will get in a lot with the expected increase pace of the games while I think Thornton will have to show what he can do and work his way into PT.

Big Pappa
07-05-2010, 08:26 PM
Starters

Nolan
Kyle
Mason
Miles
Kyrie

Key backups

Seth
Andre
Ryan
Josh

PT for the back line subs will be substantial. Seth and Andre will get in a lot with the expected increase pace of the games while I think Thornton will have to show what he can do and work his way into PT.

Because all the rational people who feel this way are tired of beating it to death (see DevilHorns post above) and probably are against this thread altogether. BTW - put me in that category.

MisterRoddy
07-05-2010, 08:31 PM
Because all the rational people who feel this way are tired of beating it to death (see DevilHorns post above) and probably are against this thread altogether. BTW - put me in that category.

Big Pappa nailed it.

Newton_14
07-05-2010, 09:05 PM
Big Pappa nailed it.

Ditto

ThePublisher
07-05-2010, 09:18 PM
ACCBBallFan has it right, there will be no set starting lineup. I think when we go big it will be.

Kyrie
Nolan
Kyle
Mason/Kelly
Miles

Here I think Curry will play starter minutes between kyrie and nolan and hopefully dawkins coming in some.

When we go small I think we will have:

Kyrie
Seth
Nolan
Kyle
Miles

Here we could also have smith at the 2 and dawkins at the 3, since he has the height with Curry coming in for starter minutes.

Either way we have tons of talent and the best coach in the world at playing to a teams strength (proven last year).
It's going to be fun. Most of my friends from high school went to state and are so excited about the coming season, and rightfully so, but they seem to think that state will be better than Duke, and that somehow a 'snubbed' harrow is better than Irving. Give me a break. I don't say much except, you'll see when the season starts....

Devilsfan
07-05-2010, 09:25 PM
It's not which five start the season. To me it's which eight make the rotation by March. It looks like Seth or Andre could break into the starting line up by then but, will another big be playing more than token minutes by then? I'm excited to find out.

MisterRoddy
07-05-2010, 09:27 PM
It's not which five start the season. To me it's which eight make the rotation by March. It looks like Seth or Andre could break into the starting line up by then but, will another big be playing more than token minutes by then? I'm excited to find out.

The title of the thread would disagree with you :)

_TheFakeJWill_
07-06-2010, 01:57 AM
The title of the thread would disagree with you :)

haha LOL

Cockabeau
07-06-2010, 02:18 AM
1.I don't believe K has ever said publicly that Kyle will start at the 3 and will start at that position.

2.Just becuase he will play as the 2nd big doesn't mean that he will play like that one offense. Hence the 4 out and 1 in set...

uh_no
07-06-2010, 08:54 AM
1.I don't believe K has ever said publicly that Kyle will start at the 3 and will start at that position.

I think saying that kyle will primarily play the 3 is a pretty strong indication that he will start there.......

i know people here WANT to be right and continue to say kyle will play the 4, but its not happening....K has said it.....kyle has said it....other guys on the team have said it

there has been NO indication that kyle will play the 4 for any substantial time this season

CrazieDUMB
07-06-2010, 09:26 AM
I'm surprised this topic hasn't been brought up before. :cool:

sagegrouse
07-06-2010, 09:49 AM
I'm surprised this topic hasn't been brought up before. :cool:

I feel like I am watching a merry-go-round, where the same questions come up with predictable regularity. But on the other hand, maybe my answers are changing.

1. I suppose the starting five is Miles, Mason, Kyle, Nolan and Kyrie. However, I really expect there to be multiple starting line-ups over the season, even without injury.

2. I fully expect (and want) there to be four guards that are so productive they "have" to be on the court: Nolan, Kyrie, Seth, and Andre. This constitutes a leadership problem that Coach K is far better prepared to deal with than me. In fact, I look forward to seeing all the ways he uses to keep all four guards (and maybe even Tyler Thornton) motivated and productive.

3. In the front court it may also be true, I hope, that Ryan Kelly "has" to play. That shouldn't be a problem because our big guys are gonna struggle to get more than 20-25 minutes per game, leaving plenty of minutes for RK.

Next week I may have a different answer.

sagegrouse

Wander
07-06-2010, 11:12 AM
I also do not think there will be one starting lineup. It will vary based on opponent.


We say this every preseason, but - genuine question - does Coach K ever do this? Sure, he changes the starting lineup every once in a while, but it's usually purely as a motivational tool like starting Davidson against Wake back in 05 or because he's trying to find the best general starting lineup for the remainder of the season like the Paulus-Nolan-Scheyer point guard rotations from 09 (or, obviously, injury). I don't remember a recent season where we regularly changed our starting lineup in order to match-up with a specific opponents.

Scorp4me
07-06-2010, 11:25 AM
I think saying that kyle will primarily play the 3 is a pretty strong indication that he will start there.......

i know people here WANT to be right and continue to say kyle will play the 4, but its not happening....K has said it.....kyle has said it....other guys on the team have said it

there has been NO indication that kyle will play the 4 for any substantial time this season

Didn't K just say in one of his most recent interviews that Kyle will be playing inside some. While I know the thread title is about the starting 5, but right now I'd have to say we just agree on who 4 of the starting 5 are and leave the last one to be determined later.

But the question of the rotation, particularly come conference play time is one I think we can answer...at least a bit more than the starting 5 question

UrinalCake
07-06-2010, 11:46 AM
Sure, he changes the starting lineup every once in a while, but it's usually purely as a motivational tool like starting Davidson against Wake back in 05

Nah, don't you remember, the only reason he put in Davidson in that game was to beat Chris Paul into a bloody pulp. You could tell by the way he bludgeoned him repeatedly with a folding chair. I'm surprised they didn't need to remove Paul with a stretcher. At least, that was the impression I got from listening to some fans of other schools.

Duvall
07-06-2010, 12:06 PM
We say this every preseason, but - genuine question - does Coach K ever do this?

Well, starting lineups are basically a formality. Substitution patterns and distribution of minutes are much more important, and those do change in response to different matchups.

Bo_Spice
07-06-2010, 01:58 PM
Didn't Coach K say something like "Kyrie will have a lot of weapons with Nolan, Kyle, and the Plumlees"?

I guarantee it'll be,

G - Kyrie Irving 6'2
G - Nolan Smith 6'3
F - Kyle Singler 6'8
F - Mason Plumlee 6'11
F - Miles Plumlee 6'10

uh_no
07-06-2010, 02:22 PM
Didn't Coach K say something like "Kyrie will have a lot of weapons with Nolan, Kyle, and the Plumlees"?

I guarantee it'll be,

G - Kyrie Irving 6'2
G - Nolan Smith 6'3
F - Kyle Singler 6'8
F - Mason Plumlee 6'11
F - Miles Plumlee 6'10

yes he did.....but don't bother bringing up what coach K said, because some people on this board will insist that he said that to imply kyle will play the 4 and curry will start.....

hedevil
07-06-2010, 04:28 PM
This point of coach K mentioning Kyrie will play with Kyle, Nolan and the Plumlees is laughable. Of course we will see that lineup. Why wouldn't coach K try that lineup as well as varied others? All I take away from coach K's having said that, is that he was mentioning a lineup consisting of his returning players who played the most minutes last year. If people want to believe that coach K was announcing his starting lineup for all to know (because it backs their argument) then have at it.

I believe that coach K will test a variety of lineups for the first half of the season. One of those will consist of Kyle at the 3 and both Plumlees. Sometimes Kelly in place of a Plumlee. Sometimes three guards with Kyle at the 4. As the season goes (about half way through), coach K will find what lineup and rotation works best and go with it for the remainder of the year.

My prediction of course is small. Three guards with Kyle at the 4 for most of each game beginning late in the season. The question will be which lineup has the chemistry and best production (defensively, offensively) moving forward. Can not only one, but two, of Miles, Mason, and Ryan play well enough, and consistently enough to keep K from flipping the Curry switch? The season will answer that question. As much as I love coach K, not even he can predict what the season will bring. Seriously!

Kedsy
07-06-2010, 04:34 PM
My prediction of course is small. Three guards with Kyle at the 4 for most of each game beginning late in the season.

Of course, because that would make Duke's team on the floor one of the smallest in the entire nation, while three capable 6'9"+ guys ride the pine.

Not saying your small lineup won't be out there for some period of time, but I'd be shocked if it's for "most of each game" beginning anytime.

_TheFakeJWill_
07-06-2010, 04:37 PM
Question: does anyone really care who starts?

jipops
07-06-2010, 04:40 PM
Question: does anyone really care who starts?

I'm more curious about who will be finishing in the last 5-8 minutes of a tight ACC battle.

_TheFakeJWill_
07-06-2010, 04:46 PM
I'm more curious about who will be finishing in the last 5-8 minutes of a tight ACC battle.

yessir! pending on foul trouble i bet over 50% of the time it will only be 1 plumlee on the court at the end of the game

NSDukeFan
07-06-2010, 04:50 PM
Question: does anyone really care who starts?

I would say quite a number of people who come to this board during the summer time and don't have that much real basketball to talk about. That's my guess based on the number of replies and discussions related to starting line-ups, which I happen to find more entertaining than recruiting discussions.

CLT Devil
07-06-2010, 05:16 PM
As important as who the starting 5 are come ACC play is, I agree it's more who about finish the season. Can we please put to rest that if you don't play much during the early season you will ride the pine?

Senior Nate James comes off the bench after starting all season, in favor of defense in Duhon, thus freeing up J-Will to expend more energy on the offensive end.

Elliott Williams, after looking lost most of the year, comes in to be a defensive stopper and Scheyer takes over point duties from Nolan late in the year (actually more like Nolan lost his Mojo after being clocked in College Park)

Zoubs starting in place of Miles halfway through the ACC season and putting up some serious numbers that game, and goes on to be very important cog in Natty Champ team.

I am sure the lineups will change, and we might try something Davidson-esque (I hear his fist has it's own fist) but come ACC Tourney time there will be a set lineup. K always plays to his personnell's strengths, but he also wants the other team to have to match up to his team, not vice-versa.

Does anyone else remember the 97-98 years (I think) where K would substitute 5 for 5? It was during the Mike Chappelle days, but I digress....

hedevil
07-06-2010, 05:27 PM
What other teams have a Curry, Irving, and Smith. You come across as if these are everyday joe's.

We'll just see what happens during the season.

And NO! It means that one 6'9 player would be on the court at a time. Two on the pine (Mason,Ryan). However, when one of the guards needs a rest, one of the bigs (likely Mason) would come in.

I admit that I am basing alot of my predictions (Curry) on articles as well as interviews, quotes, etc., be it from players, reporters, or even family members. My question is why are you (Kedsy) throwing around the word "capable" in regards to 3 players that we haven't even seen play starters' minutes yet, with the exception of Miles for parts of the season? Curry has proven that he can play starters minutes while being the primary focus of a defense. Name me one big on our roster who we can say that about. Please don't ignore this aspect of the discussion by ignoring it. I will repeat. Which big can we say that about on our team? Not one.

Like I said, 2, not 1, but 2, of our bigs will have to play consistently, and on a regular basis to allow Duke to keep playing in a two guard lineup for most of the seasons' games.

Kedsy
07-06-2010, 06:56 PM
What other teams have a Curry, Irving, and Smith. You come across as if these are everyday joe's.

We'll just see what happens during the season.

And NO! It means that one 6'9 player would be on the court at a time. Two on the pine (Mason,Ryan). However, when one of the guards needs a rest, one of the bigs (likely Mason) would come in.

I admit that I am basing alot of my predictions (Curry) on articles as well as interviews, quotes, etc., be it from players, reporters, or even family members. My question is why are you (Kedsy) throwing around the word "capable" in regards to 3 players that we haven't even seen play starters' minutes yet, with the exception of Miles for parts of the season? Curry has proven that he can play starters minutes while being the primary focus of a defense. Name me one big on our roster who we can say that about. Please don't ignore this aspect of the discussion by ignoring it. I will repeat. Which big can we say that about on our team? Not one.

Like I said, 2, not 1, but 2, of our bigs will have to play consistently, and on a regular basis to allow Duke to keep playing in a two guard lineup for most of the seasons' games.

Well, you make a lot of points here, and I'm not sure in what order to address them. First, with regards to the 2 vs. 3 big men, I was counting Josh Hairston, and you're right it's a bit of a stretch to call him capable at this point -- but he started for the U18 team, which is pretty impressive, so even if he doesn't play a lot of minutes his freshman year my guess is he'll be capable.

Second, you act as if everyone will be the same next year as they were last year, and that's just not so. Miles didn't play at all his freshman year and he was a very capable contributor his sophomore year. Historically this is the norm rather than the exception. Ryan and Mason were both much more highly regarded out of high school than Miles and when (not if) they show their freshman to sophomore jump they're going to be very solid ACC players if not better than that. You're banking on the idea that Kyrie will be an all-league quality PG and that Seth can make the jump from starring at Liberty to starring at Duke. And I happen to agree with you on both points, but it's hard to say those things are locks but the inevitable improvement between freshman and sophomore year for Ryan and Mason is not.

Third, I understand what you're saying about having Kyrie, Nolan, and Seth, and I don't think they're everyday Joes. But I do think you're missing two things: (a) even though all three of them can individually be stars, you have to look at the team's potential performance, not the individuals' potential performance; and (b) you are thinking about offense, and seem to be ignoring defense.

So let's look at the offense first. Consider the lineup with Kyrie, Nolan, Kyle, Miles, and Mason. We have three guys who have the ability to score almost all the time if they have the ball with single coverage, and two guys who will score almost every time they get the ball near the hoop and are not covered. So if Kyrie, Nolan, or Kyle have the ball (especially Kyrie) and they start their move, then either they are left in single coverage and will probably score, or they'll draw a double-team and one of their teammates will probably score. That's a whole lot of offense.

What would we gain by adding Seth in there instead of Miles or Mason? A fourth guy who would score most of the time if left in single coverage. That's a great thing, but based on what I think is going to happen offensively with the "big" lineup, it's hard to see how a primary lineup with Seth instead of a Plumlee will score significantly more points. We were already going to score a ton of points. Perhaps an advantage, but not that much of one.

But now let's look at defense. Against most teams, the lineup you propose would be significantly outsized at every position (perhaps not significantly at center and PG, but certainly at the other three positions). Whether or not we can deal with that, or mask the deficiency with a press or a zone, it's a disadvantage. The "big" lineup will almost certainly be better defensively.

So, adding Seth for Miles or Mason would give us a small advantage on offense and a big disadvantage on defense. That's why I think it doesn't make any sense.

Having said that, I agree we'll see it some of the time -- against very small, quick teams; if we're behind and need another three point shooter; if we want to confuse the other team or shake things up and full-court press or half-court trap. But I don't expect it to be the norm. Certainly not "most of the time" as you expect.

Cockabeau
07-06-2010, 07:14 PM
Didn't Coach K say something like "Kyrie will have a lot of weapons with Nolan, Kyle, and the Plumlees"?

I guarantee it'll be,

G - Kyrie Irving 6'2
G - Nolan Smith 6'3
F - Kyle Singler 6'8
F - Mason Plumlee 6'11
F - Miles Plumlee 6'10


And I will guarantee that:
Ki
Curry
Smith
Singler
Plumlee

Lets put it this way I could point out a zillion of reason why this lineup will occur but I do not have the time or the inclination. I will just highlight the #1 reason why the small lineup will be favored for simplicity's sake. defense. Playing small will allow K to play the pressure man-to-man defense which he prefers. A Plumlee-Plumlee-Singler lineup is not convulsive to effective pressure man-to-man defense.

Greg_Newton
07-06-2010, 07:37 PM
And I will guarantee that:
Ki
Curry
Smith
Singler
Plumlee

Lets put it this way I could point out a zillion of reason why this lineup will occur but I do not have the time or the inclination. I will just highlight the #1 reason why the small lineup will be favored for simplicity's sake. defense. Playing small will allow K to play the pressure man-to-man defense which he prefers. A Plumlee-Plumlee-Singler lineup is not convulsive to effective pressure man-to-man defense.
lol


I find the confidence of those in the "small camp" perplexing, not just because of the reasons Kedsy laid out, but because Jim Sumner posted in no uncertain terms last month what the coaching staff's feelings currently were on the matter.

Arguing why the small lineup makes sense is fine (although we've already done this for pages, several weeks ago). But when you "guarantee" it... you do realize you're disagreeing with the coaching staff, don't you?

ACCBBallFan
07-06-2010, 08:23 PM
... I understand what you're saying about having Kyrie, Nolan, and Seth, and I don't think they're everyday Joes. But I do think you're missing two things: (a) even though all three of them can individually be stars, you have to look at the team's potential performance, not the individuals' potential performance; and (b) you are thinking about offense, and seem to be ignoring defense.

So let's look at the offense first. Consider the lineup with Kyrie, Nolan, Kyle, Miles, and Mason. We have three guys who have the ability to score almost all the time if they have the ball with single coverage, and two guys who will score almost every time they get the ball near the hoop and are not covered. So if Kyrie, Nolan, or Kyle have the ball (especially Kyrie) and they start their move, then either they are left in single coverage and will probably score, or they'll draw a double-team and one of their teammates will probably score. That's a whole lot of offense.

What would we gain by adding Seth in there instead of Miles or Mason? A fourth guy who would score most of the time if left in single coverage. That's a great thing, but based on what I think is going to happen offensively with the "big" lineup, it's hard to see how a primary lineup with Seth instead of a Plumlee will score significantly more points. We were already going to score a ton of points. Perhaps an advantage, but not that much of one.

But now let's look at defense. Against most teams, the lineup you propose would be significantly outsized at every position (perhaps not significantly at center and PG, but certainly at the other three positions). Whether or not we can deal with that, or mask the deficiency with a press or a zone, it's a disadvantage. The "big" lineup will almost certainly be better defensively.

So, adding Seth for Miles or Mason would give us a small advantage on offense and a big disadvantage on defense. That's why I think it doesn't make any sense.

Having said that, I agree we'll see it some of the time -- against very small, quick teams; if we're behind and need another three point shooter; if we want to confuse the other team or shake things up and full-court press or half-court trap. But I don't expect it to be the norm. Certainly not "most of the time" as you expect.

In that 3 guard scenario, size at the WF would be a definite disadvantage offset by speed and experience of Nolan Smith.

At PF though, some of the best returning ACC players are PFs, so coach K may want to match his best to eliminate their otherwise advantage

Kyle Singler-1 Duke 6' 08" 230
Jeff Allen-2 VaT 6' 07" 230
Joe Trapani-3 BC 6' 08" 228
Chris Singleton-4 FSU 6' 09" 227
Mike Scott-5 UVA 6' 08" 239
John Henson-6 UNC 6' 10" 195
Dino Gregory-7 MD 6' 07" 230
Tony Woods-9 WF 6' 11" 245
Richard Howell-10 NC St 6' 08" 266
Julian Gamble-11 Miami 6' 09" 255
Devin Booker-15 Clemson 6' 08" 235
Kammeon Holsey-19 GaT 6' 08" 195

The two PFs with the largest size advantage over Singler are not that good offensively and he would destroy them at the other end.

Other than Reggie Johnson and Jordan Williams, and Tracy Smith and to lesser extent Josh Southern since he is not all that good, Duke centers are not outsized at center slot by much if any

Tracy Smith-1 NC St 6' 08" 247
Tyler Zeller-2 UNC 7' 00" 240
Jordan Williams-3 MD 6' 10" 260
Josh Southern-4 BC 6' 10" 250
Mason Plumlee-5 Duke 6' 10" 230
Jerai Grant-6 Clemson 6' 08" 220
Victor Davila-7 VaT 6' 08" 245
Ty Walker-9 WF 7' 00" 220
James Johnson-11 UVA 6' 09" 212
Reggie Johnson-12 Miami 6' 10" 295
Xavier Gibson-13 FSU 6' 11" 240
Brad Sheehan-17 GaT 7' 00" 235

And other than Harrison Barnes, the ACC WFs are probably the weakest of the five positions

Kyle Singler-1 Duke PF-SF 6' 08" 230
Harrison Barnes-1 UNC SF 6' 08" 209
Seth Curry-2 Duke SF-SG 6' 01" 175
Nolan Smith-2 Duke SF-SG 6' 02" 185
Corey Raji-3 BC SF 6' 06" 218
J.T. Thompson-4 VaT SF 6' 06" 210
Andre Dawkins-5 Duke SF-2 6' 04" 190
Terrell Bell-6 VaT SF-2 6' 06" 205
C.J. Leslie-7 NC St SF 6' 09" 205
Scott Wood-8 NC St SF-2 6' 07" 170
Michael Snaer-9 FSU SF 6' 05" 200
Will Graves-10 UNC SF-2 6' 06" 240
Cliff Tucker-11 MD SF 6' 06" 205
DeQuan Jones-12 Miami SF 6' 06" 219
Milton Jennings-13 Clems SF 6' 09" 225
C.J. Williams-14 NC St SF-3 6' 06" 218
Glen Rice Jr.-15 GaT SF 6' 05" 195
Mustapha Farrakhan-16 UVA SF 6' 04" 178
Brian Oliver-17 GaT SF-2 6' 06" 220
Ari Stewart-18 WF SF 6' 07" 205

For the most part these ACC centers do not have the game to pull a Plumlee out of the post and allow their SF to post up Nolan. If they are successful at that, easy enough to move Kyle to WF and bring in a second Plumlee or Kelly

Of course what works sometimes in ACC this year may not work at all in final few rounds of NCAA tourney. Again easy enough to revert to traditional set.

I do think the offensive difference is much greater with Seth than with a Plumlee who have not proven to be consistent scorers yet to "score almost every time they get the ball near the hoop", but I also think Ryan Kelly may blossom and make the 3 guard lineup discussions moot, if Jim Sumner had not already done so, with his sources.

Newton_14
07-06-2010, 08:43 PM
In that 3 guard scenario, size at the WF would be a definite disadvantage offset by speed and experience of Nolan Smith.

At PF though, some of the best returning ACC players are PFs, so coach K may want to match his best to eliminate their otherwise advantage

My only dissent with your theory about matching Kyle defensively against the PF's in the league is body type. That was one of the points I made in the Big/Small thread.

Kyle bulked up a lot his freshman and sophomore season's to prepare his body to bang on the interior. Last year he slimmed down some and prepared his body to play and defend on the wing. He mentioned in an interview recently that he had work to do and felt he could get much better as a wing this year.

I don't see Kyle bulking back up at all this year, and because of that, I don't feel he would be as effective defending inside as he was in his sophomore year especially.

Could he still do it? Probably, but not at the level he did as a sophomore. I just don't see him going back into the post on defense for large stretches of games. Especially given that with the talent K has available in the big man stable, there should be no need to put Kyle back down there.

At times, yes, but not as the norm.. As for the "guarantee's" being tossed out, the only thing I would guarantee is if we end up having to play Kyle exclusively at the 4 with three 6'2 or less guards and 1 big, the odds of winning a National Title go way down....

ACCBBallFan
07-06-2010, 08:56 PM
My only dissent with your theory about matching Kyle defensively against the PF's in the league is body type. That was one of the points I made in the Big/Small thread.

Kyle bulked up a lot his freshman and sophomore season's to prepare his body to bang on the interior. Last year he slimmed down some and prepared his body to play and defend on the wing. He mentioned in an interview recently that he had work to do and felt he could get much better as a wing this year.

I don't see Kyle bulking back up at all this year, and because of that, I don't feel he would be as effective defending inside as he was in his sophomore year especially.

Could he still do it? Probably, but not at the level he did as a sophomore. I just don't see him going back into the post on defense for large stretches of games. Especially given that with the talent K has available in the big man stable, there should be no need to put Kyle back down there.

At times, yes, but not as the norm.. As for the "guarantee's" being tossed out, the only thing I would guarantee is if we end up having to play Kyle exclusively at the 4 with three 6'2 or less guards and 1 big, the odds of winning a National Title go way down....

That's what I thought too until I read this

http://www.nbadraft.net/lebron-james-skills-academy-day-1

Kyle 6'9" 237 and Nolan 6'3" 189 with 6'6' wingspan

"As for the college players, the team of the day was Chris Wright (Georgetown), Shelvin Mack, Klay Thompson, Kyle Singler and Vernon Macklin. They finished with a 2-1 record, with the lone loss at the hands of team LeBron. This group had instant chemistry and it showed at the defensive end. Macklin, Singler and Thompson cleaned up the defensive glass and quickly fed the guards for fast break opportunities. Singler and Mack were the two most impressive collegians during Day 1 as they showcased well-rounded games. In addition to grabbing several defensive boards, Singler pushed the ball on the break, creating points for himself or dishing to teammates. He also had an impressive shooting day as he hit several threes. The Duke forward struggled a bit against the pros as Jawad Williams guarded him and he attempted to guard LeBron James."

jipops
07-06-2010, 09:05 PM
And I will guarantee that:
Ki
Curry
Smith
Singler
Plumlee

Lets put it this way I could point out a zillion of reason why this lineup will occur but I do not have the time or the inclination. I will just highlight the #1 reason why the small lineup will be favored for simplicity's sake. defense. Playing small will allow K to play the pressure man-to-man defense which he prefers. A Plumlee-Plumlee-Singler lineup is not convulsive to effective pressure man-to-man defense.

Yet let us keep one major point in mind. Kyrie and Seth have played a grand total of ZERO minutes in a regulation game at Duke. Team defense under K has always been a learned skill and it comes with time and experience. In that regard I do believe that a lineup featuring Seth in the back court over Mason or Miles in the front court actually could lessen us a bit from a defensive standpoint. All accounts say Seth shows a lot of promise as a defender but we don't know what kind of defender he'll be at the ACC level right now. Miles showed much more defensive ability late this past season than his freshman year. I would bet on the same type of progress with Mason.

Also, an up-tempo offense featuring Kyrie is absolutely going to play to the Plumlee's strengths. It's no coincidence that last season's WFU game was both Plumlee's best games.

Newton_14
07-06-2010, 09:22 PM
That's what I thought too until I read this

http://www.nbadraft.net/lebron-james-skills-academy-day-1

Kyle 6'9" 237 and Nolan 6'3" 189 with 6'6' wingspan

"As for the college players, the team of the day was Chris Wright (Georgetown), Shelvin Mack, Klay Thompson, Kyle Singler and Vernon Macklin. They finished with a 2-1 record, with the lone loss at the hands of team LeBron. This group had instant chemistry and it showed at the defensive end. Macklin, Singler and Thompson cleaned up the defensive glass and quickly fed the guards for fast break opportunities. Singler and Mack were the two most impressive collegians during Day 1 as they showcased well-rounded games. In addition to grabbing several defensive boards, Singler pushed the ball on the break, creating points for himself or dishing to teammates. He also had an impressive shooting day as he hit several threes. The Duke forward struggled a bit against the pros as Jawad Williams guarded him and he attempted to guard LeBron James."

Great report. Thanks for sharing. They actually had Kyle listed at 6'10. Not sure if they fudged on the weight but they definitely did on the height. Whatever he ends up being, I am looking forward to seeing the Senior version of Kyle Singler. I think we are in for a treat. Good to hear that at yet another camp Kyle is the best college guy there performance wise.

I still maintain he plays more on the wing than inside but I do expect the rotation to go deeper this year. I still liken it to the 97-98 season where K went with 9 and 10 guys a lot. I think we will go a solid 9 deep this year and with that, K will throw many different looks at teams, big, small, and in between. Kyle, Nolan, Miles, Mason, Kyrie, Seth, Ryan, Andre, and Josh will see time in most every game with at least 8 of them getting 10 mpg or more, if not all 9 of them. Josh would be my only question mark but it is not out of the realm of possibility for him to earn double digit PT.

Heck, I am hoping Tyler joins them and all 10 are ACC capable. If that happens this team would be ridiculously good and likely make history.

Kedsy
07-06-2010, 11:12 PM
I do think the offensive difference is much greater with Seth than with a Plumlee who have not proven to be consistent scorers yet to "score almost every time they get the ball near the hoop", but I also think Ryan Kelly may blossom and make the 3 guard lineup discussions moot, if Jim Sumner had not already done so, with his sources.

Well, to be fair you're misquoting me a little bit. I did not say the Plumlees could score almost every time they get the ball near the hoop, I said "two guys who will score almost every time they get the ball near the hoop and are not covered." Which I think is an accurate statement.

My point was that when opposing defenses double-team Kyrie (or Nolan or Kyle) -- which in many cases will be the only way to stop him from scoring -- that will leave a Plumlee open and unguarded and assuming Kyrie (or Nolan or Kyle) can get the ball to the unguarded Plumlee, which I think is a reasonable assumption, then the unguarded big man will score almost every time.

If I'm right, then adding another skilled scorer who can make his own shot is not nearly as important as it would otherwise be, and that was what I was trying to say.

MisterRoddy
07-06-2010, 11:21 PM
Well, to be fair you're misquoting me a little bit. I did not say the Plumlees could score almost every time they get the ball near the hoop, I said "two guys who will score almost every time they get the ball near the hoop and are not covered." Which I think is an accurate statement.

My point was that when opposing defenses double-team Kyrie (or Nolan or Kyle) -- which in many cases will be the only way to stop him from scoring -- that will leave a Plumlee open and unguarded and assuming Kyrie (or Nolan or Kyle) can get the ball to the unguarded Plumlee, which I think is a reasonable assumption, then the unguarded big man will score almost every time.

If I'm right, then adding another skilled scorer who can make his own shot is not nearly as important as it would otherwise be, and that was what I was trying to say.

Well, all I can say is that it's a very good thing you guys are having this argument (obviously not for the board as this topic has been beaten to a bloody pulp) but it just shows the embarrassment of riches we will have for the upcoming season. This is definitely a good problem to have.

Kedsy
07-06-2010, 11:36 PM
And I will guarantee that:
Ki
Curry
Smith
Singler
Plumlee

Lets put it this way I could point out a zillion of reason why this lineup will occur but I do not have the time or the inclination. I will just highlight the #1 reason why the small lineup will be favored for simplicity's sake. defense. Playing small will allow K to play the pressure man-to-man defense which he prefers. A Plumlee-Plumlee-Singler lineup is not convulsive to effective pressure man-to-man defense.

I'm happy to hear that you guarantee it. What do we get if you're wrong, our money back?

You keep saying the only way we can play effective pressure man-to-man is with the small lineup, but I still don't understand why you say that. From what I've seen, the Plumlees should be as capable of playing pressure man-to-man as most of the other centers and power forwards who have played that defense for Duke. You've said no a thousand times, but you've never once given a reason.

Using the heights listed in the Duke archives, here are the heights of some of our best teams:

1986: 6'0, 6'2, 6'5, 6'8, 6'10 (or 6'8)
1992: 6'2, 6'5, 6'7, 6'8, 6'11
1999: 6'2, 6'4, 6'6, 6'8, 6'8
2001: 6'2, 6'6, 6'8, 6'9, 6'9 (before Carlos Boozer was hurt)
2001: 6'1, 6'2, 6'8, 6'9, 6'11 (after Carlos was hurt)

The lineup you advocate is: 6'1, 6'2, 6'2 (?not sure what Kyrie will be listed at), 6'8, 6'10. It is significantly shorter than all the other lineups. If Seth was 6'5" then I'd agree with you, but the fact is K has never played a lineup as small as that which you are "guaranteeing," presumably because a lineup that short would have serious defensive issues at the small forward. So maybe you need to go on to #2 on your list of a zillion reasons.

uh_no
07-07-2010, 09:54 AM
I'm happy to hear that you guarantee it. What do we get if you're wrong, our money back?

You keep saying the only way we can play effective pressure man-to-man is with the small lineup, but I still don't understand why you say that. From what I've seen, the Plumlees should be as capable of playing pressure man-to-man as most of the other centers and power forwards who have played that defense for Duke. You've said no a thousand times, but you've never once given a reason.

Using the heights listed in the Duke archives, here are the heights of some of our best teams:

1986: 6'0, 6'2, 6'5, 6'8, 6'10 (or 6'8)
1992: 6'2, 6'5, 6'7, 6'8, 6'11
1999: 6'2, 6'4, 6'6, 6'8, 6'8
2001: 6'2, 6'6, 6'8, 6'9, 6'9 (before Carlos Boozer was hurt)
2001: 6'1, 6'2, 6'8, 6'9, 6'11 (after Carlos was hurt)

The lineup you advocate is: 6'1, 6'2, 6'2 (?not sure what Kyrie will be listed at), 6'8, 6'10. It is significantly shorter than all the other lineups. If Seth was 6'5" then I'd agree with you, but the fact is K has never played a lineup as small as that which you are "guaranteeing," presumably because a lineup that short would have serious defensive issues at the small forward. So maybe you need to go on to #2 on your list of a zillion reasons.

not to mention the fact that just about everybody even remotely related to the team says kyle will be primarily playing the 3.......i trust K over some rando's guarantees

greybeard
07-07-2010, 10:49 AM
I do think the offensive difference is much greater with Seth than with a Plumlee who have not proven to be consistent scorers yet to "score almost every time they get the ball near the hoop", but I also think Ryan Kelly may blossom and make the 3 guard lineup discussions moot, if Jim Sumner had not already done so, with his sources.

Not so sure about this perspective. First, a penetrating guard with the skills of Kyrie will be dumping the ball off for dunks, not 3 balls aka Zoubs. You need finishers to catch and throw it down. Score 1 for Miles and Mason.

Second, you run off of steals and those things called rebounds. Rebounds, score 2 for Miles and Mason.

Three, you pressure the ball and you better have the middle cared for, as in big bodies to take up space and perhaps block shots. Score 3 for Miles and Mason.

Four, Miles started showing a mid range jump shooting game. A high-low offense between the brothers if that shot is as good as it looked, with the space that it would create for Mason down low--if he is fronted, a lob to the rim, if he is played behind, a step to the middle and catch--sounds like the type of thing that draws those things we call fouls and that has the fewest moveable parts. Score 4 for Miles and Mason.

Five, there is another Plumlee being recruited and, sitting one of the two, especially if they are playing well, ain't the wisest, in my opinion.

Six, I believe that whatever offense shows it will have to feature the talents of Kyle and Nolan, who will both be key finishers in the running game. I do not think Ryan can detract from that, nor Seth. If Kyrie runs the offense, Miles and Mason should get easy finishes and show some stylin points in being able to twist and turn on catches and finishes that we did not see in the cramped and early-bodied up chances they got for the most part last season. I can see Kyle guarding a 4 if one of them is sitting, but I do not see him playing what anyone would identify as a 4 on offense.

The trick, it seems to me, is to feature this team's two senior future pros, hopefully, two lottery-pick future pros, while transforming the offense into a run first and second, Kyrie with a little help from Seth, Thorton, and yes, sports fans, possibly Nolan when Kyrie is out or not getting it done. Not an easy trick, but one I expect K to pull off. Should be interesting.

Duvall
07-16-2010, 04:54 PM
Bilas on Seth Curry (http://m.espn.go.com/general/chat/chat?w=19p7c&i=TOP&eventId=33439).


It would not surprise me if Seth were to start. He can really shoot it, and he has good size. Usually, kids look great at redshirts because they have no skin in the game, but Seth will be a valued contributor next season. With Kyrie Irving running the point and Nolan Smith as a senior, there will be a lot of open shots for Curry.

hedevil
07-16-2010, 06:07 PM
Of course it's all up in the air, but I gotta say, I like Bilas' way of thinking.:)