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ACCBBallFan
06-21-2010, 09:46 AM
Rather than tap into threads like Carolina next year or Duke small vs big, lots of new info below so its own thread ...

I tried to do some objective rankings by ACC position. I took into consideration primarily one year accomplishments relative to peers, also career accomplishments, and RCSI HS Rankings.

Usually it was single season first and career second and HS rankings third except I adjusted for Harrison Barnes being rated #1 overall, Kyrie Ivrving #4 etc.

I merely added all the positive attributes for each player Minutes Played; Points scored; Rebounds; Assists; Steals and Blocks without deducting for turnovers or personal fouls.

http://aboverim.blogspot.com/2010/05/acc-projected-hoops-lineups-for-2010-11.html

Joe Giglio picked Durand Scott and Reggie Jackson as All ACC. I agree with him at least on Scott and was surprised to see how well Drew II fared relative to other ACC guards

I originally thought Giglio was nuts having Duke play a 6'2" SF either Smith or Curry to start both with Irving and not starting both Plumlees.
After doing the analysis I agree since except for Harrison Barnes, there is no super strong ACC WF's and PF is loaded, and Miles Plumlee was not highly rated.

The so called small lineup with Singler and Mason Plumlee like UNC’s with Zeller and Henson would hold its own on rebounding. Alternations to move Singler back to WF would be required when Duke plays UNC Barnes, NC State CJ Leslie except when Scott Wood is in the game, and Clemson if Milton Jennings is for real.

Malcolm Delaney-1 VaT PG 6' 03" 190
Kyrie Irving-2 Duke PG 6' 02" 172
Larry Drew II-3 UNC PG 6' 02" 180
Demontez Stitt-4 Clemson PG 6' 02" 175
Reggie Jackson-5 BC PG 6' 03" 200
Javier Gonzalez-6 NC St PG 6' 00" 175
Durand Scott-7 Miami PG 6' 03" 195 surprisingly low
Kendall Marshall-8 UNC PG-2 6' 04" 180 strongest bench
Adrian Bowie-9 MD PG 6' 02" 190
Derwin Kitchen-10 FSU PG 6' 04" 198
Ryan Harrow-11 NC St PG-2 6' 00" 160
Maurice Miller-12 GaT PG 6' 02" 189
Mfon Udofia-13 GaT PG-2 6' 02" 187 might start over Miller
Jontel Evans-15 UVA PG 5' 11" 185
Tony Chennault-16 WF PG 6' 02" 185
Lamont Jones-17 VaT PG-2 6' 00" 190

Nolan Smith-1 Duke SG 6' 02" 185 might be SF with Curry SG
Dorenzo Hudson-2 VaT SG 6' 05" 220
Iman Shumpert-3 GaT SG 6' 05" 209
Reggie Bullock-4 UNC SG 6' 06" 190
Sean Mosley-5 MD SG 6' 04" 210
Biko Paris-6 BC SG 6' 01" 200
Sammy Zeglinski-7 UVA SG 6' 01" 180
Dexter Strickland-8 UNC SG-2 6' 03" 180 strongest bench
Malcolm Grant-9 Miami SG 6' 01" 191
Lorenzo Brown-10 NC St SG 6' 04" 180
Tanner Smith-11 Clemson SG 6' 05" 220
Deividas Dulkys-12 FSU SG 6' 05" 196
Noel Johnson-13 Clemson SG-2 6' 06" 190
C.J. Harris-14 WF SG 6' 02" 175

Harrison Barnes-1 UNC SF 6' 08" 209
Seth Curry-2 Duke SF 6' 01" 175 very small so maybe Dawkins if not Singler or Smith defends WF while Curry defends SG
Corey Raji-3 BC SF 6' 06" 218
J.T. Thompson-4 VaT SF 6' 06" 210
Andre Dawkins-5 Duke SF-2 6' 04" 190 a little bigger than Curry
Terrell Bell-6 VaT SF-2 6' 06" 205 might start instead of Thompson
C.J. Leslie-7 NC St SF 6' 09" 205
Scott Wood-8 NC St SF-2 6' 07" 170
Michael Snaer-9 FSU SF 6' 05" 200 seems low
Will Graves-10 UNC SF-2 6' 06" 240
Cliff Tucker-11 MD SF 6' 06" 205
DeQuan Jones-12 Miami SF 6' 06" 219
Milton Jennings-13 CL SF 6' 09" 225
C.J. Williams-14 NC St SF-3 6' 06" 218
Glen Rice Jr.-15 GaT SF 6' 05" 195
Mustapha Farrakhan-16 UVA SF 6' 04" 178
Brian Oliver-17 GaT SF-2 6' 06" 220
Ari Stewart-18 WF SF 6' 07" 205 (seems very low)

Kyle Singler-1 Duke PF 6' 08" 230 alternates at WF vs. UNC, NC St
Jeff Allen-2 VaT PF 6' 07" 230
Joe Trapani-3 BC PF 6' 08" 228
Chris Singleton-4 FSU PF 6' 09" 227
Mike Scott-5 UVA PF 6' 08" 239
John Henson-6 UNC PF 6' 10" 195 ACC very strong at PF
Dino Gregory-7 MD PF 6' 07" 230
James McAdoo-8 UNC PF-2 6' 08" 216 strongest bench
Tony Woods-9 WF PF 6' 11" 245
Richard Howell-10 NC St PF 6' 08" 266
Julian Gamble-11 Miami PF 6' 09" 255
Ryan Kelly-12 Duke PF-2 6' 10" 220
Cortney Dunn-13 BC PF-2 6' 08" 242
Josh Hairston-14 Duke PF-3 6' 09" 220
Devin Booker-15 Clemson PF 6' 08" 235 (seems too low)
Okaro White-16 FSU PF-2 6' 08" 180
James Padgett-17 MD PF-2 6' 08" 225
Allan Chaney-18 VaT PF-2 6' 09" 235
Kammeon Holsey-19 GaT PF 6' 08" 195 (GA Tech hurting at power positions)

Tracy Smith-1 NC St C 6' 08" 247
Tyler Zeller-2 UNC C 7' 00" 240
Jordan Williams-3 MD C 6' 10" 260
Josh Southern-4 BC C 6' 10" 250
Mason Plumlee-5 Duke C 6' 10" 230 plays PF vs. UNC, NC St, CL
Jerai Grant-6 Clemson C 6' 08" 220
Victor Davila-7 VaT C 6' 08" 245
Justin Knox-8 UNC C-2 6' 09" 240 his experience a big plus
Ty Walker-9 WF C 7' 00" 220 too high??
Miles Plumlee-10 Duke C-2 6' 10" 240
James Johnson-11 UVA C 6' 09" 212
Reggie Johnson-12 Miami C 6' 10" 295 too low??
Xavier Gibson-13 FSU C 6' 11" 240
Jon Kreft-14 FSU C-2 7' 00" 240 x-fer from JC
Assane Sene-15 UVA C-2 7' 00" 234
Catalin Baciu-16 Clemson C-2 7' 02" 245
Brad Sheehan-17 GaT C 7' 00" 235 (GA Tech hurting at power positions)

ACC Starters rankings
Duke-1 119 strong at 3 bench positions, very small WF if Curry/Dawkins

UNC-2T 114 very strong bench at all 5 positions, unfavorable unbalanced schedule

VaT-2T 114 only strong at SF Bench, very favorable unbalanced schedule

BC-4 109 (surprisingly high even without Sanders)weak bench

NC St-5 96 strong at two bench positions PG and SF, unfavorable schedule

MD-6 95 no bench

FSU-7 82 (surprisingly low) only strong at C bench

Clemson-8 81 only strong at SG bench, unfavorable schedule

Miami-9 79 no bench

UVA-10 76 only strong at C bench

GaT-11 64 only strong at PG bench, very weak at PF/C, favorable schedule

WF-12 63 no bench, vey weak at PG/SG

Overall Ranking factoring in experience, ACC schedule

Duke-1 767

UNC-2 738

VaT-3 713

NC St-4 644

BC-5 582

MD-6 480

GaT-7 476

FSU-8 467

Clemson-9 417

Miami-10 402

UVA-11 387

WF-12 323

Highest rated bench players

Rating Bench Height Weight
13 Cortney Dunn-13 BC PF-2 6' 08" 242

13 Noel Johnson-13 Clemson SG-2 6' 06" 190

21 Andre Dawkins-5 Duke SF-2 6' 04" 190
16 Miles Plumlee-10 Duke C-2 6' 10" 240
14 Ryan Kelly-12 Duke PF-2 6' 10" 230

13 Jon Kreft-14 FSU C-2 7' 00" 240

13 Mfon Udofia-13 GaT PG-2 6' 02" 187

18 Scott Wood-8 NC St SF-2 6' 07" 170
15 Ryan Harrow-11 NC St PG-2 6' 00" 160

18 Kendall Marshall-8 UNC PG-2 6' 04" 180
18 Dexter Strickland-8 UNC SG-2 6' 03" 180
18 James McAdoo-8 UNC PF-2 6' 08" 216
18 Justin Knox-8 UNC C-2 6' 09" 240
16 Will Graves-10 UNC SF-2 6' 06" 240

20 Terrell Bell-6 VaT SF-2 6' 06" 205

Of course teams can get by with a 7-8 man rotation, but in this analysis I assumed players only played one position. UNC Bench had maximum 5 guys, Duke 3, NC State 2 and everybody else had one or none.

Clearly the most favorable ACC unbalanced schedule is VA Tech and the most unfavorable is UNC.

17 - VA Tech (#3) (UVA, BC, GA T, MD and Wake)

24 - GA Tech (#7) (Clemson, Wake, Miami, UVA and VA T)

31 - Duke (#1) (UNC, MD, Miami, NC St, UVA)
32 - BC (#5)
32 - MD (#6)
33 - FSU (#8)

34 - Wake (#12)
35 - Miami (#10)
36 - UVA (#11)

37 - Clemson (#9) (GA T, FSU, Miami, UNC, NC St)
38 - NC St (#4) (UNC, WF, Clem, Duke, FSU)

41 - UNC (#2) (Duke, NC ST, BC, Clemson, FSU)

Drew II came out surprisingly well. Ari Stewart and Devin Booker surprisingly low, Ty Walker too high, Reggie Johnson too low wtc.

While it is true Larry Drew had a lot of turnovers last year (120) making this adjustment would not change the rank ordering as Gonzales had 109, Delaney 99, Stitt and Jackson 80, Scott 73 and Kitchen 69.

Bob Green
06-21-2010, 11:02 AM
Miles Plumlee is ranked too low at #10 from my perspective. My aggressive analysis would place him at #5 behind Josh Southern but ahead of his brother Mason and Jerai Grant, Victor Davila, Justin Knox, and Ty Walker, while a more conservative analysis would move Jerai Grant to #5, Victor Davila to #6, and Miles to #7 with Mason at #8 ahead of Knox and Walker. Miles Plumlee is a solid player who has steadily improved since arriving in Durham so I'm ignoring his high school ranking of #81 (RSCI) and freshman numbers because he didn't play much, and comparing his sophomore numbers of 16.4 minutes, 5.2 points, and 4.9 rebounds per game to last season's numbers for:

Mason Plumlee: 14.1/3.7/3.1
Jerai Grant: 20.3/7.2/4.7
Victor Davila: 23.2/5.3/4.2
Justin Knox: 19.8/6.3/3.7
Ty Walker: 6.0/1.9/1.4

Miles' rebounding and scoring numbers are competitive with all these players ranked above him. Yes, Jerai Grant averaged two points per game more than Miles but it will be interesting to see how Grant performs in a line-up that doesn't include Trevor Booker. Opponents' defenses will be more focused on Grant this coming season. Davila's line-up is stable so he will benefit from continuing to play alongside familiar teammates.

Expectations are for Plumlee to see increased minutes in 2010-11 to somewhere in the neighborhood of 20-25 per game. With his athleticism, specifically his ability to run the floor and elevate, he will benefit from the uptempo style Duke will play next season so season averages of 8 points and 8 rebounds per game are a realistic projection. It will be interesting to look back at these projections as the season unfolds and I am confident Miles Plumlee will put up numbers that reflect him being ranked higher than the #10 post player in the ACC.

uh_no
06-21-2010, 11:34 AM
kyle will not be playing PF

K has said this several times

....he will be at the 3

MChambers
06-21-2010, 11:59 AM
While I appreciate your effort to quantify things as much as possible, there are lots of problems with using statistics in this way in basketball. The most obvious problem is that the statistics don't do a very good job of capturing defensive skills. While steals and blocks are meaningful statistics, they don't really measure team defense very well. The other problem is that a team's offense needs more than just people who score, as we learned last season with Lance and Brian.

SilkyJ
06-21-2010, 01:39 PM
kyle will not be playing PF

K has said this several times

....he will be at the 3

You show me one quote where he has said that.

At Kyle's presser to say he was returning, K said he would use him primarily on the perimeter, but "he'll play in the post some too....we'll use him everywhere." Here's the video. Discussion starts around 11:30.

Links are a beautiful thing people. Very few of us are authorities, so use sources.

http://www.wralsportsfan.com/duke/video/7452327/

jimsumner
06-21-2010, 02:38 PM
SilkyJ,

With all due respect, I'm not sure how Singler saying that he'll be used primarily on the perimeter supports your position.

I apologize in advance for not being able to link conversations but my understanding based on conversations with people in a position to know, is that Duke intends to use Singler next season pretty much the way they used him this season. I.E., primarily on the perimeter. With Singler playing some 4 in end-of-game situations and with Plumlee, Plumlee, Kelly and Hairston playing the bulk of the minutes inside.

ACCBBallFan
06-21-2010, 04:22 PM
While I appreciate your effort to quantify things as much as possible, there are lots of problems with using statistics in this way in basketball. The most obvious problem is that the statistics don't do a very good job of capturing defensive skills. While steals and blocks are meaningful statistics, they don't really measure team defense very well. The other problem is that a team's offense needs more than just people who score, as we learned last season with Lance and Brian.

I agree with you and one other things they do not do is factor in Jim Sumner's insight. It was strickly a mathematical exrcise.

There was no subjectivity applied. The VA Tech players came out so high because of their career stats as seniors relative to the field.

Same for Justin Knox. One could argue Alabama competition vs. ACC but same could be said of Seth Curry high stats from Liberty though he did have double digit games against both ACC teams he played and was double and triple teamed.

When I did the analysis with Kyle at SF and both Plumlees, it was kind of like wasting Kyle's #1 at SF since Curry would have been right up there, except for Barnes.

PF is stacked so pushes a lot of good guys down one with Singler #1 there.

To Bob Green';s point, Miles may have the potential but playing behind Zoubek limited his stats. and his HS ratings were not the highest relative to Zeller and others. Delaney's, Tracy Smith's and others were not either, but they had college stats to move them up.

At SF, other than Barnes and CJ Leslie, Nolan with his experience could prevent them getting the ball and defend the others and Singler is not outsized relative to the other PF's, but here is how it came out with traditional set:

Kyle Singler SF Duke 6' 08" 230 (So first vs Curry second)
Harrison Barnes SF UNC 6' 08" 209
Corey Raji SF BC 6' 06" 218
J.T. Thompson SF VaT 6' 06" 210
C.J. Leslie SF NC St 6' 09" 205
Michael Snaer SF FSU 6' 05" 200

Among the PFs, though he did not demonstrate it last year, Henson was more highly rated which plays into the analysis

Jeff Allen PF VaT 6' 07" 230
Joe Trapani PF BC 6' 08" 228
Chris Singleton PF FSU 6' 09" 227
Mike Scott PF UVA 6' 08" 239
John Henson PF UNC 6' 10" 195
Mason Plumlee PF Duke 6' 10" 220 (so 6th vs Singler 1st)

At a minimum I would put Jordan Williams ahead of the more highly HS rated Tyler Zeller whose rating got so high on RCSI not on accomplishments from either of his injury shortened seasons

Tracy Smith C NC St 6' 08" 247
Tyler Zeller C UNC 7' 00" 240
Jordan Williams C MD 6' 10" 260
Josh Southern C BC 6' 10" 250
Jerai Grant C Clemson 6' 08" 220
Ty Walker C WF 7' 00" 220
Victor Davila C VaT 6' 08" 245
Miles Plumlee C Duke 6' 10" 240 (so 7th vs Mason 5th)
James Johnson C UVA 6' 09" 212
Xavier Gibson C FSU 6' 11" 240
Reggie Johnson C Miami 6' 10" 295

Again agreeeing with Bob Green, the other centers are pretty close but Mason there would bump him above most of them again more due to HS rankings than accomplishments to date.

Could have put Ryan Kelly there to be even more highly rated but remains to be seen how much he has bulked up. The Pittsnoggle lineup would be a bear to guard.

Irving

Curry

Smith

Singler

Kelly

Using Giglio's lineup, Nolan would get a lot of practice guarding bigger guys Hairston or Kelly in practice and Kyle would play against someone his own size in those sets

Irving vs. Thornton

Curry vs. Dawkins

Smith vs. Hairston/Kelly

Singler vs. Kelly/Hairston

Plumlee vs. Plumlee

So both Josh and Ryan would learn playing against the two seniors every day.

In the two Plumlees start lineup, different matchups

Irving vs. Thornton

Smith vs. Curry.

Singler vs. Dawkins

Plumlee vs. Hairston/Kelly

Plumlee vs. Kelly/Hairston

So the practice matchups work better with Giglio's small WF lineup too.

Point is coach K has the flexibility to do either. Would go with Plumlees plus Singler vs. Barnes-Henson-Zeller and versus Leslie-Howell-Tracy Smith and vs. Jennings-Booker the younger-Jerai Grant and possibly versus beefy Miami with Gamble @ 255 and Johnson @ 295.

But good to be able to put best defender Singler on PF's Jeff Allen, Joe Trapani, Chris Singleton and Mike Scott.

So I do not see it as either/or but wrather as which onbe of tow good options depending on the situation.

What works well vs ACC SFs may stink in NCAAs. So by end of ACC season would see it being both Plumlees starting with Singler , Nolan and Kyrie, but great to have option to do each and make teams prepare for both.

uh_no
06-21-2010, 05:01 PM
SilkyJ,

With all due respect, I'm not sure how Singler saying that he'll be used primarily on the perimeter supports your position.

I apologize in advance for not being able to link conversations but my understanding based on conversations with people in a position to know, is that Duke intends to use Singler next season pretty much the way they used him this season. I.E., primarily on the perimeter. With Singler playing some 4 in end-of-game situations and with Plumlee, Plumlee, Kelly and Hairston playing the bulk of the minutes inside.

not to mention the fact that K pretty much said the plumlees were starting.....and i don't think either of them are playing the 3....

SilkyJ
06-21-2010, 06:31 PM
SilkyJ,

With all due respect, I'm not sure how Singler saying that he'll be used primarily on the perimeter supports your position.


Because I've never, ever heard Coach K say "we won't use Kyle at PF," which is what uh_no said. In fact, I heard coach K say "we will use Kyle in the post."

"Primarily" and "exclusively" are two different things. Call it nitpicking if you want, but I read uh_no's post to be pretty definitive: Kyle will not play the PF.

And I agree, I expect him to spend most of his time on the perimeter in a similar fashion to this past year, but I won't be surprised to see him guarding other team's PFs multiple times this year. In fact, I think we'll see him there more than in just end-of-game situations.

uh_no
06-21-2010, 06:48 PM
And I agree, I expect him to spend most of his time on the perimeter in a similar fashion to this past year

okay...we know coach k said he'll mainly be on the perimeter, you agree that he'll be on the perimeter, so why did you mark him as a PF?

77devil
06-21-2010, 07:14 PM
okay...we know coach k said he'll mainly be on the perimeter, you agree that he'll be on the perimeter, so why did you mark him as a PF?

Where did Silky J "mark him as a PF?"

Newton_14
06-21-2010, 07:18 PM
I would personally rather see Kyle defending the SF/WF's in that list rather than the PF's. I also would switch CJ Leslie and Scott Wood in your list with Wood in the SF/WF and Leslie in the PF. CJ can play the 3 or the 4, but Wood is mainly a 3. I feel State will use a line up of PG Harrow, SG Brown, WF Wood, PF Leslie, and C Smith quite a bit with Howell coming off the bench.

There is also a good chance that Nolan ends up being the point of our defense defending the opposing team's PG with Kyrie defending the SG, unless Kyrie surprises me with his defensive ability. When we go to the small 3 guard line up Seth likely gets the call to defend the PG with Nolan on the SF/WF.

Still, looking at the list of WF/SF there is a lot of size there across the board with all except 1 guy being 6'5 or better.

Good information to digest though. Thanks for putting the work into it ACCBF.

SilkyJ
06-21-2010, 07:20 PM
okay...we know coach k said he'll mainly be on the perimeter, you agree that he'll be on the perimeter, so why did you mark him as a PF?

You're obviously not reading my posts, so I'm not going to respond to you. Re-read them then respond.

uh_no
06-21-2010, 08:03 PM
You're obviously not reading my posts, so I'm not going to respond to you. Re-read them then respond.

uh_no fail!

for some reason I thought I was still arguing with the OP

apologies

ACCBBallFan
06-21-2010, 11:57 PM
I would personally rather see Kyle defending the SF/WF's in that list rather than the PF's. I also would switch CJ Leslie and Scott Wood in your list with Wood in the SF/WF and Leslie in the PF. CJ can play the 3 or the 4, but Wood is mainly a 3. I feel State will use a line up of PG Harrow, SG Brown, WF Wood, PF Leslie, and C Smith quite a bit with Howell coming off the bench.

There is also a good chance that Nolan ends up being the point of our defense defending the opposing team's PG with Kyrie defending the SG, unless Kyrie surprises me with his defensive ability. When we go to the small 3 guard line up Seth likely gets the call to defend the PG with Nolan on the SF/WF.

Still, looking at the list of WF/SF there is a lot of size there across the board with all except 1 guy being 6'5 or better.

Good information to digest though. Thanks for putting the work into it ACCBF.

I did not know enough about Howell other than he is listed at 266 and Leslie is 209. But it may be that CJ is like Henson and performs better as a PF close to the basket than as a SF. Wood is 170 so that's almost a 100 pound difference.

The Leslie/Wood ratings were virtually identical. I also agree close call on which two of Gonzales-Harrow and Lorenzo Brown-Gonzales. So only thing for sure is Tracy Smith.

Regarding who Kyle defends it varies.

Jeff Allen with either Mason or Nolan defending Tyrell Bell or JT Thompson

Joe Trapani with either Nolan or Mason defending Corey Raji

Chris Singleton who also moves to PF with Nolan guarding Michael Snaer

Mike Scott with UVA having no established WF, either Farrakan or rookier Harrell.

Then the flip side, Barnes with Plumlees on Henson and Zeller

CJ Leslie if he is at WF or PF with either Mason or Nolan guarding Scott Wood in one case and Plumlees for sure with Howell and Tracy Smith.

Milton Jennings unless Clemson goes with Noel Johnson and Tanner Smith at SG/WF.

Dequan Jones to have Plumlees deal with Gamble @ 255 and Johnson @ 295.

The other three could go either way with Cliff Tucker-Dino Gregory forwards,

probably go bigger with Ari Stewart and Tony Wood unless the smaller Carson Desrosier starts instead of Ty Walker.

GA Tech is hurting with Glen Rice Jr-Kammeron Holsey and Brad Sheehan, so does not matter.

Singler and Nolan can play well wherever they are placed, and Seth likely gets starter like minutes regardless of Scheyer 6th man role from years past. So it may come down to whether Andre Dawkins or Ryan Kelly deserves it most from that week's practice and to matchups.

Would cause opposing coaches to have to be prepared for both, same type of advantage as Lance-Z versus two Plumlees variations.

The problem with this numerical analysis is it does not factor in defense for example Tyrell Bell over JT Thomspon as was case last year too and also it depends on opportunity what a guys stats the prior year were, playing behind a Gani lawal for example or starting and racking up metrics playing 20-25 MPG.

Hard to know when the HS rnakings gel, whether in a guy's first year or his third or fourth. Zeller for example is rated higher than Jordan Williams based on RCSI from a couple years ago but he only played 117 minutes before he came back timidly his frosh year and only a half season last year and has not produced the kind of stats to be rated #2 against a centers field that is relatively even except for Tracy Smith and Jordan Williams with Southern, Plumlees, Grant, Davilla and Johnson. Ditto for Ty Walker who so far has not lived up to his ranking but may blossom like Zoubek did.

But it does give a starter list to apply some subjectivity to and for the most part confirms Joe Giglio's projected lineups. Not sure I buy Dallas Elmore over Biko Paris for example.