Duke Identity 2010/11- Big or Small?

[Newton_14]

This seems to be the most heated topic of the off season, so I figured it was high time for a thread of its own.

Last season K said our identity was Defense-Rebounding with a 2 Big lineup most of the time and Kyle at the Small Forward (3) position. Going into the 2010/11 season the stable of big men is solid with 4 guys (Miles, Mason, Ryan, Josh).

However the stable of guards/wings is super large with 5 guys in (Kyrie, Nolan, Seth, Andre, Tyler).

Kyle is the hybrid with the skill set to fit into either group. So the question is which group will Kyle spend the most time in? Now, if Kyle is at the 4 with Andre at the 3, then I would call that a medium size line up. However most of those arguing K will go small are basing that on a line up of Kyrie, Nolan, Seth, Kyle, 1 Big.

So for the poll, the actual question revolves around how many minutes the trio of Kyrie, Nolan, and Seth play together?

[4decadedukie]

Why wouldn't Coach K execute the powerful option of big AND small, defendant on the individual game's circumstances?

[Jderf]

Why wouldn't Coach K execute the powerful option of big AND small, defendant on the individual game's circumstances?

Certainly, he would adapt to the abilidty, the size, and the speed of the team we are playing. But I think the point here is debating which we'll see the most of.

[Newton_14]

Certainly, he would adapt to the abilidty, the size, and the speed of the team we are playing. But I think the point here is debating which we'll see the most of.

Correct.

Even though I have argued that Kyle will spend most of his time at the 3 with 2 bigs on the floor, I have also argued that K will absolutely utilize all of his options and go with 3 guards and Kyle as needed. For sure he will. I just feel more often than not Kyle will be at the 3.

[dukebluelemur]

K has over and over showed that he plays the best players, regardless of perceived standard position lineups. I think Curry, Smith, and Irving are all better than either Plum.

[Big Pappa]

This seems to be the most heated topic of the off season, so I figured it was high time for a thread of its own.

Last season K said our identity was Defense-Rebounding with a 2 Big lineup most of the time and Kyle at the Small Forward (3) position. Going into the 2010/11 season the stable of big men is solid with 4 guys (Miles, Mason, Ryan, Josh).

However the stable of guards/wings is super large with 5 guys in (Kyrie, Nolan, Seth, Andre, Tyler).

Kyle is the hybrid with the skill set to fit into either group. So the question is which group will Kyle spend the most time in? Now, if Kyle is at the 4 with Andre at the 3, then I would call that a medium size line up. However most of those arguing K will go small are basing that on a line up of Kyrie, Nolan, Seth, Kyle, 1 Big.

So for the poll, the actual question revolves around how many minutes the trio of Kyrie, Nolan, and Seth play together?

Well since every single thread somehow morphs into this topic, albeit usually because of "cocka-something", I am glad that it finally has a thread all to it's own. Good work Booz.

I voted for the 3-2 simply because it makes the most sense. There are many reasons for this, but the primary one is height. Take a look at the lineup against the projected starters for UNC:

KI 6'2" - Larry Drew II 6'2"
Nolan 6'1" -Strickland or Bullock 6'3" or 6'6"
Seth 6'1" - Harrison Barnes 6'8"
Kyle 6'8" - John Henson 6'10"
Mason or Miles 6'10" - Tyler Zeller 7'0"

It just doesn't work.

[Osiagledknarf]

Well since every single thread somehow morphs into this topic, albeit usually because of "cocka-something", I am glad that it finally has a thread all to it's own. Good work Booz.

I voted for the 3-2 simply because it makes the most sense. There are many reasons for this, but the primary one is height. Take a look at the lineup against the projected starters for UNC:

KI 6'2" - Larry Drew II 6'2"
Nolan 6'1" -Strickland or Bullock 6'3" or 6'6"
Seth 6'1" - Harrison Barnes 6'8"
Kyle 6'8" - John Henson 6'10"
Mason or Miles 6'10" - Tyler Zeller 7'0"

It just doesn't work.


I completely agree here. Against most teams in the ACC this would be a very small lineup to matchup defensively. I do think though in this matchup it would be something like this:

KI on Drew
Nolan on Bullock
Singler on Barnes
Miles on Henson
Mason on Zeller

This looks a lot better from a defensive matchup standpoint.

[MisterRoddy]

Well since every single thread somehow morphs into this topic, albeit usually because of "cocka-something", I am glad that it finally has a thread all to it's own. Good work Booz.

I voted for the 3-2 simply because it makes the most sense. There are many reasons for this, but the primary one is height. Take a look at the lineup against the projected starters for UNC:

KI 6'2" - Larry Drew II 6'2"
Nolan 6'1" -Strickland or Bullock 6'3" or 6'6"
Seth 6'1" - Harrison Barnes 6'8"
Kyle 6'8" - John Henson 6'10"
Mason or Miles 6'10" - Tyler Zeller 7'0"

It just doesn't work.

agree with this post but I just thought I'd correct you on the heights.

Nolan is 6'2
Seth has grown to 6'2.
Kyrie's is debatable as he has been listed anywhere from 6'1 to 6'3 but when it comes to our players I choose to stick with the higher numbers so I'll go with 6'3.

[mattman91]

In my opinion, Kyle definately spends the majority of his pt at small forward.
Kyle has already shaped his body into a small forwards body. He didnt come back for his senior year to play power forward when everyone knows his NBA position will be the "3". I do think however, Kyle will play a few minutes here and there in the post. In foul trouble situations he may be called upon to bail out one of the plumlees.

I think the real question marks are Ryan Kelly and Josh Hairston. Not that I dont have faith in them, but both tend to be perimeter oriented. Hopefully they can both bulk up and contribute down low right away. In order for Kyle to stay at his natural SF position, atleast one of the two will have to give resting time to Miles and Mason.

[ChicagoCrazy84]

In my opinion, Kyle definately spends the majority of his pt at small forward.
Kyle has already shaped his body into a small forwards body. He didnt come back for his senior year to play power forward when everyone knows his NBA position will be the "3". I do think however, Kyle will play a few minutes here and there in the post. In foul trouble situations he may be called upon to bail out one of the plumlees.

I think the real question marks are Ryan Kelly and Josh Hairston. Not that I dont have faith in them, but both tend to be perimeter oriented. Hopefully they can both bulk up and contribute down low right away. In order for Kyle to stay at his natural SF position, atleast one of the two will have to give resting time to Miles and Mason.


Thank you! I have thought the same thing since he announced he would come back. We still have good size down low with the Plumlee's and I DO think that Josh and/or Ryan will give us good minutes when one of them is in foul trouble so Kyle can stay mainly on the perimeter. Kyle is not going to play at the 4 at all in the NBA and playing with a great backcourt, this is a great opportunity for Kyle to showcase his skills in a different (more pro style) offense. I think Kyle will only play the 4 in rare occasions or if God forbid, there is an injury in the frontcourt.

[mattman91]

Thank you! I have thought the same thing since he announced he would come back. We still have good size down low with the Plumlee's and I DO think that Josh and/or Ryan will give us good minutes when one of them is in foul trouble so Kyle can stay mainly on the perimeter. Kyle is not going to play at the 4 at all in the NBA and playing with a great backcourt, this is a great opportunity for Kyle to showcase his skills in a different (more pro style) offense. I think Kyle will only play the 4 in rare occasions or if God forbid, there is an injury in the frontcourt.

Right on.

I do not see us subbing two bigs at a time in Josh and Ryan for the Plumlees. last year we subbed the Plumlees in together for Lance and Brian. I don't think it would be wise to throw Ryan and Josh in at the same time.

[Bob Green]

Right on.

....last year we subbed the Plumlees in together for Lance and Brian.

Well this isn't entirely accurate seeing as Miles Plumlee and Lance Thomas started the first 24 games of the season and Brian Zoubek came off the bench. During the stretch run, which is obviously the most significant part of the season, the Plumlees did sub in together. Perhaps I'm guilty of nitpicking here, however, I believe too many posters on DBR are either forgetting or not giving proper credence to the fact Miles Plumlee has started 26 games during the first two years of his career.

[ACCBBallFan]

Was not a poll option but my actual expectation is 20 MPG at WF an 10 MPG at PF/WF2. SO I went with the 25 min at SF option.

[roywhite]

Good topic and the 25 minute marker is a good way to define what will be the nature of the team.

At this point, I have more confidence that the perimeter guys including new additions Seth and Kyrie and a developing Dre will play well. I like the 4 bigs, but see some chance that one or more won't have enough game (or have persistent foul problems) that might limit their court time.

Still, I think a productive lineup of 2 bigs, Kyle, and 2 guards gives us the best chance to win, so I voted for 25 minutes plus for that grouping.

[mattman91]

Well this isn't entirely accurate seeing as Miles Plumlee and Lance Thomas started the first 24 games of the season and Brian Zoubek came off the bench. During the stretch run, which is obviously the most significant part of the season, the Plumlees did sub in together. Perhaps I'm guilty of nitpicking here, however, I believe too many posters on DBR are either forgetting or not giving proper credence to the fact Miles Plumlee has started 26 games during the first two years of his career.

You're right, thanks for pointing that out. However, from the Maryland game on (when we started playing to our full potential) we subbed the Plumless for Brian and Lance. I do believe that Mason and Miles will be excellent starters.

[PhillyDuke]

If the Plumlees come correct, which I expect them to, they will both play. The reality is that someone is going to have to "take one for the team", meaning that he will be asked to come off the bench. The ones who I feel will be asked to make this sacrifice are Nolan or Seth.

If Seth is better than Nolan (and I think he is), will coach K start him? That's the central question. One of them will be asked to sit.

[Kedsy]

If the Plumlees come correct, which I expect them to, they will both play. The reality is that someone is going to have to "take one for the team", meaning that he will be asked to come off the bench. The ones who I feel will be asked to make this sacrifice are Nolan or Seth.

If Seth is better than Nolan (and I think he is), will coach K start him? That's the central question. One of them will be asked to sit.

Nolan will start. Seth will still get a lot of minutes.

[Duvall]

If Seth is better than Nolan (and I think he is)

Okay. Why?

[NovaScotian]

agree with this post but I just thought I'd correct you on the heights.

Nolan is 6'2
Seth has grown to 6'2.
Kyrie's is debatable as he has been listed anywhere from 6'1 to 6'3 but when it comes to our players I choose to stick with the higher numbers so I'll go with 6'3.

really? is this like how demarcus shot up to 6'4" by his senior year, when he wasn't even 6'1" at the combine? please, let's not trust the higher numbers.

[Jackson]

There is no way that Duke will have 3 starters under 6'3". Both Plumlees will start in the front court with Kyle at the 3. Kyrie and Nolan will start at guard and Seth will probably be the 6th man. I am anxious to see how Andre will develop, and hopefully he doesn't become the odd man out in the rotation. Wondering how Ryan and Josh compete for the first big man sub off the bench. Will be interesting in a good kind of way.

[Osiagledknarf]

If the Plumlees come correct, which I expect them to, they will both play. The reality is that someone is going to have to "take one for the team", meaning that he will be asked to come off the bench. The ones who I feel will be asked to make this sacrifice are Nolan or Seth.

If Seth is better than Nolan (and I think he is), will coach K start him? That's the central question. One of them will be asked to sit.

Unless there is an injury to Nolan, Seth will come off the bench and Nolan will undoubtedly be the start at the 2. Why wouldn't he? Nolan has shown he can get it done on both ends of the floor and is becoming one of the most consistent players in the country, as well as one of the better 2's in the country. He will be mostly like a preseason All American, he will start. Did you watch the tournament last year? He is one of the bigger reasons why we won it, why would we sit him? Also, why do you think that Seth is better then him? I love Seth as well, but Nolan knows the system better and has performed at a higher level then Seth has. You maybe right about this in 2 or 3 years, but certainly not right now.

Seth will get some minutes at the 1 and 2 next season. He will be the main backup to Kyrie at the point and the main backup obviously to Nolan at the 2. Dawkins will be also a backup at the 2 along with Curry, but mainly he will be at the 3. I see things looking like this:


Starters:

PG- Kyrie Irving
SG- Nolan
SF- Kyle Singler
PF- Miles
C- Mason

Primary backups as:

PG: Curry, Thronton
SG: Curry, Dawkins
SF: Dawkins
PF: Kelly, Hairston
C: Kelly

The 3 guard system will simply leave us too small to be able to defend effectively. I think in some situations we will go to it, but not to start a game.

[hedevil]

3 guards.

I believe Seth will prove to be more of an offensive threat than Miles or Mason, earning himself a starting spot (being a starter is something Seth has said he plans to earn this year). The scoring that Kyle, Seth, Kyrie, and Nolan can produce together will force K's hand in his decision making. I understand the argument of this being a small lineup (I agree), however, it will also be an explosive lineup.

The main example given as to how our small lineup would be exploited has been the one against UNC. When I look at it, I like the matchups. I would put Nolan on Barnes (though he clearly gives up 5 or so inches), Nolan is an excellent defender (maybe our best). Barnes wouldn't beat Nolan off the dribble,therefore he would mainly, for the most part, be reduced to shooting jump shots due to his height. On the flip side of that coin, you have an unproven Henson assigned to Kyle. WOW! Henson guarding Kyle on the perimeter in a 4 out, 1 in offense. Seems to me that the lane would be as open as the sea for either Plumlee in the middle, as well as dribble penetration for Kyle or any guard for that matter. Regardless of height, I see Kyle as being more than capable of muscling Henson around.

Duke will already have an advantage at the point guard position. Throw Kyle vs. Henson into the mix, as well as Seth's abilities on the court, and I see Duke as having three advantages/strengths versus one for UNC in Barnes versus Nolan. I think Nolan would hold his own vs. Barnes, so I'm willing to take that tradeoff. The main question is if K will. I do want to take the opportunity to point out what I've said all along. If going with two bigs is what's best, so be it. Whatever's best for Duke is best for me. I think coach will try out several different lineups for the first half of the season, but come the second half, I see K going small.

[DukeBlueNV]

Everyone knows we dont play UNC every game right? Matchup work both ways and I doubt K will determind the lineups/mins distribution basied soley on the UNC game...

anyways...

I think either way we will be a top 3 team and I trust that K will find the best way to manipulate the mins so our best players will all get opportunity to contribute. Correct me if Im wrong but it seems before Kyle, the last true wing we had was Deng before that Battier(?). Seems like we did okay with a three guard lineup besides 2006(?). I know it would be a disservice to Singler playing him at the four but our team is the opposite from last year, with plenty of depth in the backcourt instead of the front court, it just so happens Kyle is the guy who will have to adjust at times. As a team captain I'm sure he will being willing to make sacrifices for the betterment of the team, wherever K decides is best. Im thinking it could be similar to last year when he asked to help out with perimiter play. Could be the same except this year in the post. He just happens to be our most versitle player. Plus he could stay on the outside on offense and just guard the other teams PF on defense, that wasy he is a mismatch on offense and could also hone his skills for the NBA.

For the record I think he will play the majority of his mins at the 3 only moving to the 4 when the Plumlees get in foul trouble.

[Jderf]

A lot of people seem to think that the reason Duke will go small will be for offensive firepower. I don't see that. If we do end up going small at times, it won't be because of the offense. Our big lineup with Kyle at the 3 should be absolutely electric on offense - close to, if not just as strong offensively as the small lineup. The substitution of Seth for Mason won't make us more potent on offense, it will just replace height and an inside presence with speed and a perimeter presence. If it's just more 3-point shooting K wants, then he can just put Ryan out there without sacrificing any height. So I think that if you're going to argue for the small lineup, you have to argue from a defensive standpoint.

Now I know there are others who think of the 3-guard lineup being better for pressure man-to-man, but I don't see that either. With Kyle at the 3 we will be able to extend the pressure just as far, and Kyle will be far and away the best player on our team at defending opposing small forwards. There's no way Nolan could guard someone like Robbie Hummel or Harrison Barnes. A 5 or 6 inch advantage is absolutely enormous; those guys will just shoot over him all day long.

The Plumlees, guarding the opposing team's 4 and 5, will not really be needed to extend the pressure anyway because they will be guarding on the interior. When the other team does have a perimeter-oriented 4, that's when we'll see more of Coach K sliding Kyle over to the four. But I don't think we'll see that as often as the more traditional line-up and that would mean that we see the big lineup for the majority of the playing time this season.

[Big Pappa]

Starters:

PG- Kyrie Irving
SG- Nolan
SF- Kyle Singler
PF- Miles
C- Mason

Primary backups as:

PG: Curry, Thronton
SG: Curry, Dawkins
SF: Dawkins
PF: Kelly, Hairston
C: Kelly



I agree with this for the most part, but I have a few nitpicks. First, it's "Thornton" and I really don't see him getting many minutes at all. Second, I don't think Kelly will be the primary guy at the 5. IMO pretty much all of the time there will be at least one Plumlee or Hairston in the game and they will be playing the 5. My primary backups would look like this:

1 - Curry
2 - Curry, Dawkins
3 - Dawkins, Kelly
4 - Kelly, Hairston
5 - Hairston

[Newton_14]

Unless there is an injury to Nolan, Seth will come off the bench and Nolan will undoubtedly be the start at the 2. Why wouldn't he? Nolan has shown he can get it done on both ends of the floor and is becoming one of the most consistent players in the country, as well as one of the better 2's in the country. He will be mostly like a preseason All American, he will start. Did you watch the tournament last year? He is one of the bigger reasons why we won it, why would we sit him? Also, why do you think that Seth is better then him? I love Seth as well, but Nolan knows the system better and has performed at a higher level then Seth has. You maybe right about this in 2 or 3 years, but certainly not right now.

Seth will get some minutes at the 1 and 2 next season. He will be the main backup to Kyrie at the point and the main backup obviously to Nolan at the 2. Dawkins will be also a backup at the 2 along with Curry, but mainly he will be at the 3. I see things looking like this:


Starters:

PG- Kyrie Irving
SG- Nolan
SF- Kyle Singler
PF- Miles
C- Mason

Primary backups as:

PG: Curry, Thronton
SG: Curry, Dawkins
SF: Dawkins
PF: Kelly, Hairston
C: Kelly

The 3 guard system will simply leave us too small to be able to defend effectively. I think in some situations we will go to it, but not to start a game.

Once again, Miles the center or "5" and Mason is the natural PF or "4" who can also play the 5 if needed. Under no circumstances will Miles play the 4. He is the only center on the team.

The backup 5's will be Mason, and I will go a different route than Big Pappa on this one and go with Kelly as the other backup 5.

[Big Pappa]

Once again, Miles the center or "5" and Mason is the natural PF or "4" who can also play the 5 if needed. Under no circumstances will Miles play the 4. He is the only center on the team.

The backup 5's will be Mason, and I will go a different route than Big Pappa on this one and go with Kelly as the other backup 5.

Exactly what I was getting at. Although I think that a Plumlee will be playing the five a vast majority of the time, I see Hairston getting the minutes over Kelly unless he has really bulked up. If Ryan hasn't, I can see him getting minutes at the three. You can quote this post halfway into the season, but I honestly think we will see the lineup go really big a couple of times this season (obviously very rarely) like this:

1 - KI
2 - Kyle
3 - Ryan
4 - Mason
5 - Miles

Especially after Kyle's work at the CP3 camp this summer.

[Newton_14]

Exactly what I was getting at. Although I think that a Plumlee will be playing the five a vast majority of the time, I see Hairston getting the minutes over Kelly unless he has really bulked up. If Ryan hasn't, I can see him getting minutes at the three. You can quote this post halfway into the season, but I honestly think we will see the lineup go really big a couple of times this season (obviously very rarely) like this:

1 - KI
2 - Kyle
3 - Ryan
4 - Mason
5 - Miles

Especially after Kyle's work at the CP3 camp this summer.

Agree. Regarding Kelly, he has the length, and if he put a little bulk on I can see him seeing some minutes at the 5 spot. I do think Miles will get the lion's share of minutes at the 5, with Mason manning the position when Miles is out.

It will be interesting to watch it all play out and see what kind of improvements Miles, Mason, and Kelly make over the summer.

[PhillyDuke]

I'm gonna put this out there, too:

Even Kyrie Irving's starting spot can not be etched in stone. Coach K is going to be forced to open up all the positions for competition. It is possible that Curry and Smith could start as guards--and I'd throw in Andre Dawkins too, depending on how he's developed because he can add superior shooting, and above the rim action as well.

[_TheFakeJWill_]

I'm gonna put this out there, too:

Even Kyrie Irving's starting spot can not be etched in stone. Coach K is going to be forced to open up all the positions for competition. It is possible that Curry and Smith could start as guards--and I'd throw in Andre Dawkins too, depending on how he's developed because he can add superior shooting, and above the rim action as well.

I agree 100% bbuuttt.... Kyrie (Bering injury) out PG the next 3 years, mark it down!

[Osiagledknarf]

Once again, Miles the center or "5" and Mason is the natural PF or "4" who can also play the 5 if needed. Under no circumstances will Miles play the 4. He is the only center on the team.

The backup 5's will be Mason, and I will go a different route than Big Pappa on this one and go with Kelly as the other backup 5.

I am sorry... I always seem to get those mixed up. My bad once again.


I agree with this for the most part, but I have a few nitpicks. First, it's "Thornton" and I really don't see him getting many minutes at all. Second, I don't think Kelly will be the primary guy at the 5. IMO pretty much all of the time there will be at least one Plumlee or Hairston in the game and they will be playing the 5. My primary backups would look like this:

I am aware that Thronton will not be getting a lot of minutes, but still, he is on the depth chart. I put him there as the 12th man, but like you said he won't get many minutes at all.

Ryan Kelly I think will surprise a lot of people. He has all the offensive skills to play the 5. He has length, size, can shoot and rebound. I just worry about him on the defensive end. He struggled there last season and really needs to work his bulk this summer, and I fully expect him to come back in and be fully capable of playing there at times next season.

[Big Pappa]

I am aware that Thronton will not be getting a lot of minutes, but still, he is on the depth chart. I put him there as the 12th man, but like you said he won't get many minutes at all.

Ryan Kelly I think will surprise a lot of people. He has all the offensive skills to play the 5. He has length, size, can shoot and rebound. I just worry about him on the defensive end. He struggled there last season and really needs to work his bulk this summer, and I fully expect him to come back in and be fully capable of playing there at times next season.

I agree he could play the 5. He does need to bulk up though as you said. He would give us a 5 that is a great, not just good but great, 3-point shooter. A dimension that we have not had in a long time.

Sorry to point it out again, but you are 0-2 on TT's last name.

[Bob Green]

I am aware that Thronton [sic] will not be getting a lot of minutes, but still, he is on the depth chart. I put him there as the 12th man, but like you said he won't get many minutes at all.

12th man? There will be 10 recruited scholarship players on the team so how is it you label Tyler Thornton the 12th man?

Moving on to the starting line-up discussion, I believe sophomore Seth Curry will fill the same role as sophomore Jon Scheyer - sixth man who plays starters minutes.

[airowe]

Moving on to the starting line-up discussion, I believe sophomore Seth Curry will fill the same role as sophomore Jon Scheyer - sixth man who plays starters minutes.

Completely agree, and if we can get this kind of production out of Seth, I think we'll all be happy:


Season GP GS Min FG-FGA FG-FGA FT-FTA OR-DR TR PF-DQ Ast TO Blk Stl Pts
2006-07 33 32 1112 113-284 61-167 115-136 40-70 110 57-1 61 52 5 39 402

I do expect Seth to put up bigger numbers than Jon as he is much more experienced and has had a chance to bulk up a bit more than Jon was in his Freshman Year.

[MisterRoddy]

I am sorry... I always seem to get those mixed up. My bad once again.



I am aware that Thronton will not be getting a lot of minutes, but still, he is on the depth chart. I put him there as the 12th man, but like you said he won't get many minutes at all.

Ryan Kelly I think will surprise a lot of people. He has all the offensive skills to play the 5. He has length, size, can shoot and rebound. I just worry about him on the defensive end. He struggled there last season and really needs to work his bulk this summer, and I fully expect him to come back in and be fully capable of playing there at times next season.

I fail to believe that a skinny 6'10 guy that has a reliable perimeter shot and above average ball handling skills for his height plays the center position in the ACC. Maybe against smaller 5's but other than that, I just don't see it. Put me in the camp that has Hairston backing up the 5. (when BOTH Plumlees are out of course.)

[NSDukeFan]

I fail to believe that a skinny 6'10 guy that has a reliable perimeter shot and above average ball handling skills for his height plays the center position in the ACC. Maybe against smaller 5's but other than that, I just don't see it. Put me in the camp that has Hairston backing up the 5. (when BOTH Plumlees are out of course.)

I fail to believe that an average sized 6-8 guy coming out of high school that has been working on his perimeter game plays the center position in the ACC over a 6'10 sophomore who has had a year in the system and a summer to get stronger. Put me in the camp that has Kelly as the third 5 man, behind the two Plumlees.

[MisterRoddy]

I fail to believe that an average sized 6-8 guy coming out of high school that has been working on his perimeter game plays the center position in the ACC over a 6'10 sophomore who has had a year in the system and a summer to get stronger. Put me in the camp that has Kelly as the third 5 man, behind the two Plumlees.

Hairston is 6'10 FYI (a big difference). I'm not saying that Hairston is a center. I am just saying that he would probably be a better fit for the position than Kelly.

[Bob Green]

Hairston is 6'10 FYI (a big difference).

I haven't seen Hairston listed as 6'10" anywhere. Scout has him as 6'8" 215, and ESPN says 6'9" 220. Can you provide a link to a source that states 6'10"?

[MisterRoddy]

I haven't seen Hairston listed as 6'10" anywhere. Scout has him as 6'8" 215, and ESPN says 6'9" 220. Can you provide a link to a source that states 6'10"?

Hmm, I thought I read somewhere that he had grown to 6'10 but I have been mistaken as I cannot find the source.

Honest mistake as I like to give our players the tallest height recorded (and sometimes, like here, tack on an inch or two).

[MisterRoddy]

The height discrepancy still doesn't make my argument invalid. In watching Duke games last year, Kelly played mostly the 3 and 4. Also, IMO, the perimeter game is too big a part of Kelly's game for him to play the center spot on a regular basis. (Once again, possibly against smaller lineups.)
As for Hairston, he's got more bulk than Kelly and is around the same height. Also, in the 2 full games that I watched with Hairston, while his game is very perimeter oriented also, he seemed very comfortable in the post grabbing offensive boards and putting them back up with strength and even showing a back to the basket game at times.

[sagegrouse]

... of what has become a nice little dust-up, it seems to me that we will have a hard time telling whether K is going big or small.

One innovation the last two years was to bring in two players at the 17 minute mark before the first TV TO. These were most often 'bigs' for 'bigs.' And given our foul trouble in the front court, it was certainly a practical approach.

I think the Plumlees will likely start, along with Kyle, Nolan and Kyrie, but at the 17 minute point two guards (Seth and Andre) enter the game. One of the Plumlees will leave along with Kyrie or Nolan. At the 14 minute mark, the two starters who left return to the game, replacing the other Plumlee and the other guard. Or, maybe Ryan and a Plumlee enter the game. At the 11 minute mark, ... well, I could go on, but you see the point.

I expect Kyle to start at the three, since K seems to prefer a big lineup at the beginning of the game, and then move back and forth among the 3, the 4, and the bench for the remainder of the game. The distribution of minutes will depend in part on who is playing and in part on the opponent.

sagegrouse

[ACCBBallFan]

The height discrepancy still doesn't make my argument invalid. In watching Duke games last year, Kelly played mostly the 3 and 4. Also, IMO, the perimeter game is too big a part of Kelly's game for him to play the center spot on a regular basis. (Once again, possibly against smaller lineups.)
As for Hairston, he's got more bulk than Kelly and is around the same height. Also, in the 2 full games that I watched with Hairston, while his game is very perimeter oriented also, he seemed very comfortable in the post grabbing offensive boards and putting them back up with strength and even showing a back to the basket game at times.

Yes but last year Duke was overloaded at bigs and this year overloaded on perimeter. So Kelly would only backup Kyle at WF when matchups dictate it.

Having Dawkins play almost exclusviely the backup WF is the only way to get him enough PT as I am assuming coach K when two of Plumlees and Kelly are in foul trouble would go with Kyle there before Josh who gets low minutes like Miles two years ago and Ryan last year, then plays more the next three years like Kelly will this year.

Since Miles in only true center, best guy to work him in practice is probably the backup center Mason, with Kelly and Hairston pairing off.

Kyle can get his practice versus bigs when Duke is in the 3 small set and he faces a Plumlee or Kelly or Josh.

For 5 vs. 5 practice setups, not counting scrubs:

Irving vs. Thornton

Smith vs. Curry

Singler vs. Dawkins

Kelly vs. Hairston

Plumlee vs. Plumlee

People seem to argue whether 5th starter after Irving, Smith Singler and Plumlee is the other Plumlee or Curry.

I would not count Ryan Kelly out either as he can be a mismatch at PF/WF2 much like Kyle was his first two years if he has bulked up and is not impeded with flu mono like symtoms like he was at start of last year when Duke was overloaded with bigs Zoubs, Lance, and two Plumlees.

Dawkins has the scoring to compete for starting spot too but needs to improve his defense and his handle as three Duke guys did at CP3 camp. Versus typicla Wf's, Dre handle is above average as long as he figures out how to leverage hsi speed on the passing lanes.

I give Kelly the nod over Hairston for third string center due to height and experience, but even with both Plumlees being somewhat foul prone last year when Duke could afford for them to be aggressive (as is the case for Duke guards this year) I expect the center minutes from the Plumlees to be in the hgih 30's with crumbs beign debated for Ryan versus Josh.

Which brings back the question of who guards Miles in practice and that would usually be Mason except when Wojo needs to sub someone else out there to prevent the siblings from killing one another.

For Blue White matchups if goal is to get sides closer, which is not always the case:

Irving vs. Thornton

Smith vs. Curry

Dawkins vs. Singler

Hairston vs. Kelly

Plumlee vs. Plumlee

[hedevil]

I touched on this in the CP3 thread, but it seems that Curry is tearing things up at camp. I just don't see Curry being a sixth man even on a great Duke team. Maybe I'll be surprised and that will be the case, however, I just find it hard to believe that Miles or Mason (no slight to them) gets more minutes than Curry in the rotation. I see them (Plumlees) splitting minutes come the second half of the season while Kyle plays at the 4 on defense, and playing in a 4 out, 1 in on offense. We will see the Plumlees playing together in stretches, mixed in with Kelly, however, I think Curry gets the lion's share of minutes at the 3 with Andre subbing for him or sliding Curry to the 1 or 2 when needed.

One thing I haven't seen addressed very often is stamina. I think going small will serve Duke the best this year based on the players available. This team will get up and down the court quickly, therefore, stamina becomes an important factor as far as the Plumlees are concerned. Last year they (Plumlees) didn't have to play significant minutes, nor was that team built for speed. They could take more time going up court and getting set. This year is a whole other animal. Sure Ryan will provide minutes, but how many? We'll have to wait and see. Right now, I think Ryan has more questions to be answered than Seth. I'm basing this on the latest reports on Seth's game. I will (as should you) keep in mind that Seth is only playing against other guards at CP3 camp. Size does make a difference. However, I wouldn't underestimate the talent (very good) that he's going up against either.

Last year, K went extremely big because he almost had to. That was the make up of the team. This years' team is the complete opposite. Duke's depth will be made up of big players again, but this time in smaller packages. You have to play to your strengths and lay the burden on where you have depth.

[Jderf]

One thing I haven't seen addressed very often is stamina. I think going small will serve Duke the best this year based on the players available. This team will get up and down the court quickly, therefore, stamina becomes an important factor as far as the Plumlees are concerned. Last year they (Plumlees) didn't have to play significant minutes, nor was that team built for speed. They could take more time going up court and getting set. This year is a whole other animal. Sure Ryan will provide minutes, but how many? We'll have to wait and see. Right now, I think Ryan has more questions to be answered than Seth. I'm basing this on the latest reports on Seth's game. I will (as should you) keep in mind that Seth is only playing against other guards at CP3 camp. Size does make a difference. However, I wouldn't underestimate the talent (very good) that he's going up against either.

I'm not sure that the stamina argument only concerns the Plumlees. If we run the floor as hard and often as many suspect, our guards (who will be doing just as much if not more running) are going to be tiring pretty quick as well, and they will need subs. Here's a Nolan interview snatched from the CP3 thread we're he says that the key advantage to having Seth on the team for him will be that Nolan knows he won't have to worry about conserving energy (unlike last year) because there will be someone extremely talented on the BENCH ready to get him some rest whenever he needs it. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VikTe-FvILM

[toooskies]

Things that would necessitate Duke playing small next year:
- Andre Dawkins demanding minutes with great play
- Ryan Kelly/Josh Hairston not being able to fill minutes in the post
- Injuries

Optimistically, if Duke goes small I would hope the first reason would be why. We've seen flashes of brilliance from AD as well as some lackluster play; we've seen solid (but limited) minutes from RK but nothing spectacular, although he had a logjam of guys in front of him; and we've seen nothing at the college level from JH yet. All three scenarios are possible, with lesser degrees of each being almost likely.

But you need a really good reason to dilute a strength (outstanding play at PG, SG, SF for the entirety of the game) in order to make up for a weakness (underperforming post play). So I'd argue that it would take a Plumlee getting hurt to see us play small 25+ minutes a game.

[Greg_Newton]

I believe Seth will prove to be more of an offensive threat than Miles or Mason, earning himself a starting spot (being a starter is something Seth has said he plans to earn this year).

The problem with that statement is that it's not in a vacuum - it's not just, "who's better, Seth or Miles?" Starting Seth over a Plumlee would mean starting 3 players under 6'3, which has huge implications on defense, and perhaps most importantly, rebounding. Plus, we'll be fine on offense no matter what. Defense and rebounding will be what pushes K's hand, if anything.


If Seth is better than Nolan (and I think he is), will coach K start him? That's the central question. One of them will be asked to sit.

Now this is a very interesting question. I would never have considered this as a realistic possibility before reports from the CP3 camp started surfacing that Curry may have been outplaying Nolan (better stats in the games, and a tweet from a scout/writer saying so). I don't see any way our senior co-captain and A-A candidate doesn't start, but it creates an interesting dynamic.


I'm gonna put this out there, too:

Even Kyrie Irving's starting spot can not be etched in stone.

Another verrrry interesting point. I don't see this actually happening unless Seth shows some amazing pure PG skills, but it puts a lot of pressure on Kyrie when you potentially have three of the top 5-10 guards/wings in the country competing with you for the 1-3 spots.

In reality, I think the most likely scenario is Seth coming off the bench to play 20-25 mins/game, with no one but Kyle playing over 30 due to an absolute breakneck pace and ballhawking defense. Like Nolan said, I think we'll see a lot of guards going all-out for a 5-min stretch, then tagging out for the next TV-timeout stretch. We should see 110% effort and intensity from our 1-3 spots at all times, which should be a lot of fun.

I expect K to be very vocal about how Seth is the 6th starter and "our most explosive offensive player", etc... essentially, making sure his ego stays safe even though he's not technically a starter. Hopefully Seth will embrace this role, and realize that it's not hurting his pro prospects and is helping chemistry.

And lastly, the nice thing is that K has the option of the 3-guard lineup if things stagnate or we (gasp) actually fall behind. It's less solid defensively and on the boards (so I doubt we see it much with a comfy lead), but it's incredibly explosive. I also wonder if we'll see an all-out fullcourt press with this lineup out of timeouts sometimes - K's got the personnel to wreak havoc on opposing ballhandlers this year.

These are some great issues to have!:D

(ETA - my poll answer would be "neither - 20 mins at the 3, 10 mins at the 4".

[hedevil]

Rebounds, rebounds!

What so many people fail to understand when mentioning this rebounding argument is that Duke has lost rebounding battles more often than not over the years. Coach K himself was cracking jokes throughout the season about seeing the rebounding numbers and thinking they had been reversed with the opponents' team. Everyone seems to have fallen in love with last years' approach so much (which I understand, it worked), that it seems like we've forgotten that Duke is notorious for it's up and down style of play. We played big and lived off of rebounding last year, BECAUSE we had to due to personnel.

This years' depth is in other areas. How many teams have the firepower to keep up with Dukes small lineup even if they (opposing team) were to win the rebounding battle? Are there a few who could exploit this? Yes. Maybe. For example, teams who have a good enough 3 man to outplay Nolan. The vast majority of teams couldn't take advantage of this regardless, due to their personnel.

What we are talking about here is Duke having a size disadvantage at ONE position. The 3 spot. On the flip side is Duke having a slower 3 guarding our 3 and a slower 4 guarding our 4 (Kyle) on the perimeter of a 4 out 1 man in offense. One disadvantage (size at the 3) traded for two advantages gained (speed at two spots, 3 and 4). This is a game of mismatches, and I like the tradeoff of Nolan guarding teams' 3, while their slower players chase our 3 and 4. However this works out I'm happy.

If I'm proven wrong come the second half of the season, I'll happily admit it. All I want is a repeat, and whatever gets us there, I'm on board 110%. :D

[Big Pappa]

What we are talking about here is Duke having a size disadvantage at ONE position. The 3 spot. On the flip side is Duke having a slower 3 guarding our 3 and a slower 4 guarding our 4 (Kyle) on the perimeter of a 4 out 1 man in offense. One disadvantage (size at the 3) traded for two advantages gained (speed at two spots, 3 and 4). This is a game of mismatches, and I like the tradeoff of Nolan guarding teams' 3, while their slower players chase our 3 and 4. However this works out I'm happy.



IMO this is a much bigger deal than you are making it. Even if we just look at Carolina at the 2 and 3 positions they would have Bullock at 6'6" at the 2 and HB at 6'8" at the 3. That puts us with Nolan (6'2") guarding Bullock and Seth (6'2") guarding HB. That just won't work. I think Nolan can most likely handle Bullock, but Seth would get abused by HB. That would cause Kyle to have to help a lot off Henson and HB is a good enough passer to find the open guy. The advantages that you point out just don't outweigh the disadvantages.

[SilkyJ]

Things that would necessitate Duke playing small next year:
- Andre Dawkins demanding minutes with great play
- Ryan Kelly/Josh Hairston not being able to fill minutes in the post
- Injuries


At this point, the more likely option would seem to be noneoftheabove. I would replace your #1 with "Seth Curry demanding minutes." All signs seem to be that he will be the "other" guard demanding PT, and its pretty much a consensus that Nolan and Kyrie will be playing mucho minutes. If so, the 3 of them on the court at the same time would "necessitate" us playing smaller...

Andre makes more sense in a 3 guard lineup cause he's bigger and could matchup better at the 3 then either KI, NS, or SC, but it seems Seth will be the one demanding minutes this coming year.

Of course, I don't think any of that is really news to anyone or groundbreaking in anyway, just seems to be the general line of thinking right now. Who knows though, by October Andre could be generating as much buzz as Seth, so we'll just have to wait and see.

[hedevil]

The question is how often do we play UNC? Like I said in my previoous post, there may be a few teams that could exploit this size disadvantage, but not many. That being said, I'm not too concerned with either Barnes nor Bullock until they show me something in an actual collegiate game (against a real defense).

As to your example of UNC, offensively, I think Nolan would abuse the freshman Bullock, and Seth would get looks against a slower Barnes. Let's throw in Henson trying to guard Singler on the perimeter. We have an experience advantage in every position mentioned.

Sorry, but I think my advantages far outweigh the disadvantages. Proven players versus unproven players. Size doesn't make up for that.

[Greg_Newton]

The question is how often do we play UNC? Like I said in my previoous post, there may be a few teams that could exploit this size disadvantage, but not many. That being said, I'm not too concerned with either Barnes nor Bullock until they show me something in an actual collegiate game (against a real defense).

As to your example of UNC, offensively, I think Nolan would abuse the freshman Bullock, and Seth would get looks against a slower Barnes. Let's throw in Henson trying to guard Singler on the perimeter. We have an experience advantage in every position mentioned.

Sorry, but I think my advantages far outweigh the disadvantages. Proven players versus unproven players. Size doesn't make up for that.

That's not necessarily true. Several ACC teams has large SFs last year - not only Carolina (300-lb Graves), but GT (6'8 Peacock), FSU (6'9 Singleton), WFU (6'7 Ari Stewart), NSCU (6'7 Scott Wood), off the top of my head.

You seem to be primarily arguing that if we went started the small lineup, we would be a great team with only a couple weaknesses that only a few teams could exploit. This is probably true. However, we would still be a great team with zero weaknesses if we went with the traditional lineup most of the time, with the small lineup available if we need a kick-start.

To me, it comes down to this: why sacrifice rebounding and interior defense if you don't need to?

[hedevil]

One more point that I would like to make clear on the rebounding issue. EVERYONE should check out the CP3 thread. Though an all guard camp, Curry had 6 more rebounds than his taller teammate (Singler). All of us who played the game to some extent know that rebounding is more about position and blocking out than simply being taller than your opponent. I'm sure Kyle and Nolan would disagree that Curry would be a rebounding liability.

[MisterRoddy]

The question is how often do we play UNC? Like I said in my previoous post, there may be a few teams that could exploit this size disadvantage, but not many. That being said, I'm not too concerned with either Barnes nor Bullock until they show me something in an actual collegiate game (against a real defense).

As to your example of UNC, offensively, I think Nolan would abuse the freshman Bullock, and Seth would get looks against a slower Barnes. Let's throw in Henson trying to guard Singler on the perimeter. We have an experience advantage in every position mentioned.

Sorry, but I think my advantages far outweigh the disadvantages. Proven players versus unproven players. Size doesn't make up for that.

As much as I would love seeing those offensive advantages, I would hate watching Bullock and Barnes shooting over or posting up Nolan and Seth possession after possession and when Kyle or either Plumlee comes to help, their man would then be left open. IMO, there would be too many mismatches on defense to play the Kyrie, Nolan, Seth, Kyle, Plumlee lineup against the Drew, Bullock, HB, Henson, Zeller lineup regularly.

That being said, you are right in that not all teams would exploit our 3-guard lineup and against those teams (which we will play a fair amount of games against) we will probably see a healthy amount of minutes being played with the 3-guard lineup.

[Newton_14]

So, here is my reasoning of why I feel we will attempt to play Kyle at the 3 with 2 of the bigs as a norm, with the 3 guard line up being a luxury we use when we simply want to punish teams even more!;)

I say "attempt" because that plan hinges on at least 3 of the 4 of Mason, Miles, Ryan, and Josh being "ACC Ready" and capable of staying in the rotation for normal minutes no matter the opponent. Having all 4 meet that level will be great but, we really only need 3 to do it. The plan also hinges on avoiding injuries to our bigs.

Miles is already there. Mason was knocking on the door last year and should go through that door this year. The key, really is Ryan. Can he rise up and perform at an ACC level? I say yes. Anything from Josh is a bonus.

Kyle's body is point two. Kyle bulked up in his first 2 years to handle the banging inside. He is a great interior defender.... in that bulked up body.... which he ditched last year to drop weight and prepare for playing on the wing. How did that work out? FF MOP. So what is Kyle doing this summer? I would say participating in the CP3 has me leaning towards Kyle planning to play the 3 more often than the 4.

Speed of play. Some say you have to go small to play fast like K prefers. Not true. The fastest/quickest team in the nation in 2008-09 won the National Title playing 2 bigs, will 2 good-sized wings (6'6 Green, 6'4 Ellington) and a lightning quick PG. Being big did not seem to slow them down. They also dominated in rebounding. Sound familiar?

Another argument people make: K always plays his 5 best players. Yes, in most cases he does. Except that he plays his 5 best DEFENSIVE players. He also uses common sense. Nate James was a better player than Casey Sanders, but it was Sanders starting those last 10 games in 2001. Nate was the 6th man.

ACC Size- Check the rosters. It is not just unc that is big. The whole league is. Every projected starting SF is 6'5 to 6'8, except UVA.

We are loaded with great/good guards. There is no doubt in my mind that Seth Curry is a baller and Kyrie Irving is the 2nd Coming. No doubt at all. But trotting out 3 guards that small for long stretches is begging for trouble.

I for one, remember all too well that beat down at the hands of Nova, when they punished our small interior over and over and over again with dunk, layup, dunk, dunk, layup, etc etc. Kyle was at the 4 that night and we sent him into a machine gun fight with a putty knife. I hope to never see anything like that again.

So please, injury gods be nice, and Mason, Ryan, Josh, be ready for ACC level competition. That is all I want for Christmas..

PS- If we can bring on all the gold with 3 guard line ups and Kyle at the 4, I will be quite ok with that too. Just win baby.:cool:

[Indoor66]

One more point that I would like to make clear on the rebounding issue. EVERYONE should check out the CP3 thread. Though an all guard camp, Curry had 6 more rebounds than his taller teammate (Singler). All of us who played the game to some extent know that rebounding is more about position and blocking out than simply being taller than your opponent. I'm sure Kyle and Nolan would disagree that Curry would be a rebounding liability.

That was against, primarily, guards. The two tallest players there are 6'8". I don't see the CP3 performance to be indicative of overall rebounding ability. Different focus for different players (particularly Singler vs Curry.)

[ACCBBallFan]

To Boozer's point about needing to compare other ACC projected lineups

http://aboverim.blogspot.com/2010/05/acc-projected-hoops-lineups-for-2010-11.html

One correction for BC where Revenal recently transferred to Ohio St which would move Josh Southern back into center slot.

I would not be concerned about heights and weights of WF's Nolan would guard as much as size of the PF and C relative to Singler and a Plumlee.

With Singler being one of Dukes best defenders might actually be good to have him at PF that has some of the better players like Jeff Allen 6'7" 230; Chris Singleton 6'9" 227; Joe Trapani 6'8" 228; Mike Scott 6'8" 239; Devon Booker 6'8" 235 who are all similarly sized to Kyle.

The bigger forwards in general are not all that good Howell from State at 6'8" 266 no way thye could guard Kyle; Julian Gamble 6'9" 255; and Tony Woods 6'11" 245.

Kyle would muscle Henson 6'10, low 200's; Dino Gregory 6'7" 230; Kammeron Holsey 6'8" 195+ a year of growth.

Regardless of what Duke does at PF, there are only a couple of monster centers for Miles to contend with: Jordan Williams 6'10" 260; Reggie Johnson 6'10" 295; Jos Southern 6'10 248 and Tracy Smith 6'8"247 with most others about same 240 as Miles: Davilla 6'8"245; Gibson 6'10"240 or JC Kreft 7' 240; Zeller 7' 240; Jerai Grant 6'8 220; Sheehan 7' 235; James Johnson 6'9" 212; Desrosiers 6'10"210.

Other ACC WF's that would be mismatch problems are of course Harrison Barnes and CJ Leslie. Milton Jennings is big 6'9" 225 but unproven. Most others are 6'6" plus or minus an inch but Nolan's experience and speed would cause them problems as well and several are not scorers except for Snaer, Rice and Raji. Very few long ball threats, so while they may be able to get their jumper off over Nolan, might be the percentage play to let them shoot it, thus having Nolan closer to the basket than the taller WF for the rebound.

So playing Kyle at PF/WF2 is not as far fetched as it would have been prior to mass exodus of bigs past couple of years in ACC.

NCAA Tourney play might be another matter though.

I am expecting Ryan Kelly to really progress with more strength and conditioning and not starting the season out with flu and weight loss or having non complimentary speed merchants like Scheyer and Zoubek.

When paired with Kyrie and a Plumlee, plus the seniors Smith and Singler, Ryan's foot speed is adequate and more than made up for with his high basketball IQ and shooting, kind of like having the freshman PF Singler paired with the senior WF Singler, and mismatches galore.

[Newton_14]

To Boozer's point about needing to compare other ACC projected lineups

http://aboverim.blogspot.com/2010/05/acc-projected-hoops-lineups-for-2010-11.html

One correction for BC where Revenal recently transferred to Ohio St which would move Josh Southern back into center slot.

I would not be concerned about heights and weights of WF's Nolan would guard as much as size of the PF and C relative to Singler and a Plumlee.


Good points. One thing though with Nolan. What if Nolan ends up having to be the point of the defense guarding the opposing team's PG. I ask because as great as he is, Kyrie's defensive ability is not yet known. Now, if Seth can be that lead defender on point, that too leaves Nolan open to guard the bigger wing.

All of that will factor in. Like many have said in various threads, the exciting part is the options K will have. So many ways to go with the personell at hand, providing of course, Kelly is ready. Andre in a 3 guard line up works fine. The 3 small guards with 2 true bigs works fine. Anything with Kyle at the 3 or 4 works as well.

The pace will be wicked and Jumbo will work hard to track +/- with all the line up changes there will be in each game. Especially early.

[MisterRoddy]

really? is this like how demarcus shot up to 6'4" by his senior year, when he wasn't even 6'1" at the combine? please, let's not trust the higher numbers.

Well there isn't any possible way to know the exact height of a player but Seth Curry himself said he had grown to 6'2 since he arrived at Duke (There's a link in the Seth Curry discussion page). Neither of these cases are comparable to Nelsons as his was a 3 inch difference whereas Irving's and Curry's are just 1 inch differences.

[ACCBBallFan]

There just are not that many good 3 point shooters in the ACC that do not play for Duke.

So the three relative same sized guards Kyrie, Seth and Nolan (each 6'2" give or take an inch, looks like Curry may now weight as much as Nolan) plus Dre at 6'4" can switch on everything without having to fight through screens.

Almost all the other ACC teams have one or both bigs who hang close to the basket. So will be difficult to run clear outs to post up with their bigger WF.

I am thinking Kyle plays 20 MPG at WF and 10 MPG at PF but the more I read about Curry, the more I think it may be 15 MPG at each, as long as Andre carries his load as well as Kelly does his.

[greybeard]

as deep as it is, Duke will be dangerously thin up front next year and that is a real concern. The Plumlees will both start but unless and until that show marked, and I mean marked, ability to stay out of foul trouble one will at the 5 minute mark be taken out.

There seems to be no other realistic possibility. Duke might get away with playing Ryan as a substitute 4 offensively but he and Kyle will need to switch defensively.

As deep as they are overall, Duke is an injury to one of the Plumlees away from having to really scramble, and probably struggle next year.

If I am K, I might take a page out of Roy's book and develop a controlled break as a regular feature of Duke's offense. I should think that Kyle would really like to develop his ability to contribute in a running game and will be the type to get the board and follow the break through the middle, making catches at the foul lane from three shooters aka Hansborough, or going to the wing himself aka Green.

I see the Plumlees' health and maturity (staying out of foul trouble) as the key to Duke's season. An injury or chronic foul trouble, and this team's season will suffer dramatically, in my opinion.

[ACCBBallFan]

The natural 5 vs. 5 practice rotation would be:

Irving vs. Thornton

Smith vs. Curry

Singler vs. Dawkins

Kelly vs. Hairston

Plumlee vs. Plumlee

So whoever would be the WF in a 3 small set, if not Dawkins, can switch roles with Dre.

If they can guard Singler in practice, they can guard anybody at WF.

[SilkyJ]

There seems to be no other realistic possibility. Duke might get away with playing Ryan as a substitute 4 offensively but he and Kyle will need to switch defensively.


Ryan has not shown the requisite quickness, from what I have seen, to guard the 3 in college. He did show the makings of a decent post defender, but just needed some muscle. So, when he and Kyle are in the game, I would expect Ryan to guard the 4 and Kyle the 3 most of the time, assuming the two players are "equal" threats. Given that K has talked about Kyle being one of our better defenders next year, I would guess that if the guys playing the 3 and 4 on the other team are not equal threats, Kyle would guard the better of the two.

[hedevil]

Please bear with me and take the time to drag/read through this post. I would really like some feedback from those who can see the BIGGER picture since I seem to be thinking small (lineup wise). I can't get enough of this team. Just thinking about all of the possibilities. I like the article on the front page of the DBR titled "Curry Impresses". Imagining him (Curry) playing alongside Singler, Smith, and Irving. My My My.

I have a few questions for the backers of the big lineup. You gotta admit that the debate is a good way to pass some time in the offseason. Sometimes computer conversations don't come across the way a person intends, so if I ever seem rude, or distasteful towards those who I disagree with, I apologize. I respect all Duke faithful, even in debates/disagreements. This is strictly (from my side) opinion based, nothing more. Just thought I'd put that out there in advance for the sensitive one's.:)

But in all seriousness, as I look through various posts on various threads, what stands out to me is that although most members think that Duke will play primarily with a big lineup, the bigs also seem to be the players most members are concerned about in terms of development. Sorry, but that seems to be hopeful thinking as opposed to knowledgable thinking. I too hope that our bigs make drastic strides this year, but I am not ready to make lineup predictions based on it.

Question: Why are most of you predicting a big lineup, when it is our bigs that are the biggest question marks going into the season? We know what we're gonna get with Kyle and Nolan, and possibly even more than we expect.;) It seems like Seth is the real deal. Kyrie is the top point guard in the country (IMO). He (Kyrie) will see a learning curve at times, but he still should be pretty darn good. Andre is a bit of a question mark (I expect great things from him), but is a piece of an already loaded part of the puzzle. In other words, our guards have room for error.

The bigs? Not so much. We don't have a single big who played the type of minutes that they will be asked to play this year. Cross fingers, but what if Ryan isn't bulked up and ready to play significant minutes this year? What if either Plumlee doesn't learn how to adapt to a tick tack fouls type of game? We all know that with Duke, those types of games are inevitable. The bigs have some BIG questions to answer, and have the most unknowns in their development this offseason (partly due to exposure). Predicting lineups on that seems hopeful at best. Which I am. But when it comes to predictions, I'll go with what I know, then I'll wait and see if I'm proven wrong. Which would, by the way, be to my delight.:D

[ACCBBallFan]

In that scenario where Plumlees continue to unwisely go for highlight reel blocks and end up in foul trouble, by default you end up with the smaller lineup. So coach K can start traditional and his fallback in still very formiddable with three small.

Back to practice, if you just align the starters in 3 small and defend with the rest both Kyle and the WF call him NDotSmitty or SDot Curry or even Dre end up with one being defended by Josh and the other by Ryan. So they get to practice defending strong offensive players while the undersized WF gets to deal with size and Kyle someone close to his own size, and Dawkins has to defend and dribble vs. a quick guard.

Kyrie is pushed daily by Thornton a pesky deefnder and usually Plumlee vs. Plumlee but alternate occasionally to have them side by side or to give Ryan and Josh expereince with a center rather than with Kyle and a smaller WF.

The three amigos used to playing together from DC Assault AAU are reunited vs. the best competition they ever faced (as they are anyway when facing traditinal lineup with Kyle at WF and both Plumlees).

Irving vs. Thornton

Curry/Smith vs. Dawkins

Smith/Curry vs. Hairston/Kelly

Singler vs. Kelly/Hairston

Plumlee vs. Plumlee

Which Plumlee starts could depend on whether the opponent is Jordan Williams or Reggie Johnson who are huge or someone in the 240 pound range. Going by demonstrated potential it would be Miles but going by long term kinetic it would be Mason. So coach K could leverage the sibling rivalry and alternate for motivational purposes.

By sometimes practicing lineup with two Plumlees, Josh and Ryan get experience also having to defend bigs, versus the Kyle and Nolan referenced above. To make it fairer though they need to sometimes each be paired with a Plumlee while defending the other Plumlee.

So with this team makeup the coaching staff has the same flexibility in practices to show (and to improve playing) alternate looks as it does versus game opponents.

[MarkD83]

Question: Why are most of you predicting a big lineup, when it is our bigs that are the biggest question marks going into the season?

My view is that I liked the rebounding that Duke had in this latest Natl Championship year. Three guards, Kyle and a 1 big means less offensive rebounds so a sub-30% shooting night could be a loss. That was what was unique about Duke in 09-10, a win or loss was not dictated by how well they shot.

[oldnavy]

as deep as it is, Duke will be dangerously thin up front next year and that is a real concern. The Plumlees will both start but unless and until that show marked, and I mean marked, ability to stay out of foul trouble one will at the 5 minute mark be taken out.

There seems to be no other realistic possibility. Duke might get away with playing Ryan as a substitute 4 offensively but he and Kyle will need to switch defensively.

As deep as they are overall, Duke is an injury to one of the Plumlees away from having to really scramble, and probably struggle next year.

If I am K, I might take a page out of Roy's book and develop a controlled break as a regular feature of Duke's offense. I should think that Kyle would really like to develop his ability to contribute in a running game and will be the type to get the board and follow the break through the middle, making catches at the foul lane from three shooters aka Hansborough, or going to the wing himself aka Green.

I see the Plumlees' health and maturity (staying out of foul trouble) as the key to Duke's season. An injury or chronic foul trouble, and this team's season will suffer dramatically, in my opinion.

I agree, this will be the key. I think we will see the two Plumlee's start and play as much as foul trouble limits them. With Kyrie and Nolan on the perimeter, I hope we see more of the drive and lob play where a guard penetrates in the lane then tosses the ball toward the rim and Mason goes and slams it. We did this a few times last year, but seemed to back away from it, or other teams defended it better, not sure which. With two quick and penetrating guards, I would hope we can open that up a little more.

Also, on defense, I feel that the pressure Nolan and Kyrie and Kyle can put on the perimeter will help the bigs. Our perimeter defense is going to be very strong which has a way of disrupting entry passes, etc to the post, making it easier to establish position and hopefully foul less. That at least is my theory.

Rebounding, especially offensive rebounding made a huge impact on the team last year. Therefore, I would not expect to see us go small right away. I think that we will see some 3 guard lineup, but mostly we will be 2 bigs and 3 perimeter guys, with Kyle being one of the three.

Most folks are not talking about the Plumlees improving over the summer. I expect we will see major improvement in Mason and Miles. Mason is brimming with talent, and a full summer of weight training and practice and injury free preseason should prepare him to make a quantum leap. Miles should be able to refine his skill sets and with his experience make great strides as well. My point is do not overlook these two and their potential impact on the team.

[airowe]

The bigs? Not so much. We don't have a single big who played the type of minutes that they will be asked to play this year.
None of the players you presume will play more minutes than the Plumlees have played the type of minutes they will be asked to play this year.

Cross fingers, but what if Ryan isn't bulked up and ready to play significant minutes this year?
Ryan has already put on some weight this offseason. If he's not ready to play the 15 or so minutes I'm predicting, he's probably hurt.

What if either Plumlee doesn't learn how to adapt to a tick tack fouls type of game? We all know that with Duke, those types of games are inevitable.
What if Andre hasmt honed his defensive skills what if Seth can't adapt to not being the #1 offensive option right away? What if Kyrie has trouble adapting to the speed of the college game?

You're acting like our guards are infallible yet the bigs have these insurmountable issues. None of our players are perfect (except Kingler ;)).

The bigs have some BIG questions to answer, and have the most unknowns in their development this offseason (partly due to exposure). Predicting lineups on that seems hopeful at best. Which I am. But when it comes to predictions, I'll go with what I know, then I'll wait and see if I'm proven wrong. Which would, by the way, be to my delight.:D

I'll stick with what I know, and it was originally posted by Jim Sumner but glossed over for some reason. The staff feels like our best starting lineup right now is with two Plumlees and a Singler frontcourt. Boozer and GregNewton have also made very cogent points which I think people should reread if they have cofusion about why some people could think we'll start three guys 6'8" and taller (who are all both quick and fast) over three guys 6'3" and shorter.

[jv001]

I think Coach K will remind all the bigs just how we won the National Title this year. Defense & Rebounding. With offensive rebounding being very, very important. We have two very talented big fellows in the Plumlees. Last year the excitement was about just how great Mason was going to be as a freshman. Well because of injuries, he did not reach that potential Why not this year? We also have Ryan and Josh to back them up. I know our perimeter players are the most talented guys on the team, but our bigs are just as important. I see Kyle playing most of his minutes at the "3" and our guards subbing for each other most games. What a good problem to have!
Go Duke!

[Bob Green]

I have a few questions for the backers of the big lineup. You gotta admit that the debate is a good way to pass some time in the offseason.

Yes this is a good way to pass some time in the off season. The discussion in this thread is interesting.


Question: Why are most of you predicting a big lineup, when it is our bigs that are the biggest question marks going into the season?

I disagree. Miles Plumlee has started 26 games in his first two years at Duke and averaged 16.4 mpg as a sophomore. He is our third most experienced player in terms of games started, minutes played, points scored, and rebounds grabbed. I consider Miles a lock to start at center and I am amazed by the lack of respect Miles receives from so many Duke fans. He is a ferocious competitor who has steadily improved since arriving in Durham. Miles Plumlee has the potential to be a beast the next two seasons.

There are some questions regarding Mason Plumlee and the first one is: how big of a factor was last season's early wrist injury on his development? Mason was projected to start as a freshman prior to being injured. The second question is: how big of a freshman to sophomore jump will Mason achieve? He is spending the off season in intense workout sessions and he is a player often touted as a future lottery pick. He should be a much improved player this coming season.


It seems like Seth is the real deal.

I've stated this opinion before, however, I'll reiterate it here...sophomore Seth Curry will be the sixth man but play starter's minutes just like sophomore Jon Scheyer.

Obviously, I am a solid member of the "both Plumlees start camp" and my final comment in this post will be to remind those folks advocating starting three guards, Singler, and one Plumlee, of Miles' and Mason's performance against Wake Forest last season when they combined to score 30 points and grab 21 rebounds. Yes, I realize it was only one game but it is solid evidence of their potential.

[Billy Dat]

airowe - after reading this whole thread and thinking of my response, you nailed most of the points I wanted to make, which were in response to hedevil and others commenting on "having the most trust in what they know".
Quick aside - it seems to be a habit on this board, and perhaps message boards in general, to always be looking for the next thing instead of ruminating over what is. Pregame threads seem to generate more passion and interest than post game threads, recruiting threads generate more discussion than threads about our current players, Carolina threads generate more attention than Duke threads, and players who have never stepped on the court get more respect than guys who've worn the D-U-K-E in actual games and won titles.

All I know is what I watched on the court from November to April, especially in March and April. Based on what I saw I have a hard time understanding the following logic:

-The idea that Nolan Smith, who was as responsible as anyone for us winning the national title, would potentially come off the bench in favor of Seth Curry. The Curry love is based, most recently, on some written rave reviews from an off season point guard camp largely based on drills. I hope Seth Curry is a good as everyone thinks, Nolan's earned more than a little benefit of the doubt with me.

-That the Plumlees are more of a question mark than Seth Curry or Kyrie Irving. I have been entertaining myself since the first Monday in April by watching our big ACC tournament games and last 4 NCAA games. Even though K went Zoubek/Thomas for most of the Butler game, and Zoubek was the frontline story of the second half of the season, Miles and Mason played really well during the final third of the season. Their defense was much better, they were looking confident on offense, and coach was going to them in key situations in critical games. Watching those games, I get giddy thinking about turning them loose.

Putting away the soapbox, I agree with the prediction that the starting 5, to start the season, with be Kyrie, Nolan, Kyle, MP1 and MP2. What I didn't see mentioned was the fact that the Plumlees can really run, and how much a high octane offense plays to their strenghts. We don't need to go small to play fast, the Plumlees are built to play fast. Every Duke player who sticks around and learns the system gets better at avoiding foul trouble and gets to know our defensive system. I expect no less from Mason and Miles. Considering that the team practices starters vs others, I don't see the Plumlees battling each other in practice everyday.

I see us starting big and adjusting to the opposing line-up and foul trouble as the game moves on. I see the real war for minutes between Curry and Dawkins.

[Kedsy]

I have a few questions for the backers of the big lineup...

But in all seriousness, as I look through various posts on various threads, what stands out to me is that although most members think that Duke will play primarily with a big lineup, the bigs also seem to be the players most members are concerned about in terms of development. Sorry, but that seems to be hopeful thinking as opposed to knowledgable thinking. I too hope that our bigs make drastic strides this year, but I am not ready to make lineup predictions based on it.

Question: Why are most of you predicting a big lineup, when it is our bigs that are the biggest question marks going into the season? We know what we're gonna get with Kyle and Nolan, and possibly even more than we expect.;) It seems like Seth is the real deal. Kyrie is the top point guard in the country (IMO). He (Kyrie) will see a learning curve at times, but he still should be pretty darn good. Andre is a bit of a question mark (I expect great things from him), but is a piece of an already loaded part of the puzzle. In other words, our guards have room for error.

The bigs? Not so much. We don't have a single big who played the type of minutes that they will be asked to play this year. Cross fingers, but what if Ryan isn't bulked up and ready to play significant minutes this year? What if either Plumlee doesn't learn how to adapt to a tick tack fouls type of game? We all know that with Duke, those types of games are inevitable. The bigs have some BIG questions to answer, and have the most unknowns in their development this offseason (partly due to exposure). Predicting lineups on that seems hopeful at best. Which I am. But when it comes to predictions, I'll go with what I know, then I'll wait and see if I'm proven wrong. Which would, by the way, be to my delight.:D

Well, regarding your comment I bolded above, others have pointed out that neither Seth nor Kyrie have played a single minute for Duke, so saying Miles (who played 16.4 mpg) and Mason (14.1) haven't played "the type of minutes they will be asked to play" sounds a bit odd. On the other hand, how many minutes do you expect Miles and Mason to be asked to play? I'm thinking 20 to 23 each, which isn't all that far off from the 14 to 16 they played last year.

Much more pertinent to the debate, the flaw I have seen in every one of your posts on this topic is you seem to think only about offense and you seem to think K likes to play his five best offensive players, when historically that's not the case. Defense is what matters at Duke.

This past year, for at least the first half of the season, there were a sizable number of posters here who couldn't understand why Lance and Z played at all. After every single game they made all kinds of noise: the team won't get anywhere unless Lance and Z go to the end of the bench to make room for the Plumlees' superior athleticism and offensive potential.

Those people weren't wrong in saying the Plumlees were better offensive players and would have scored more points than Lance and Z. They were very wrong in suggesting Duke would have been a better team because of that.

I see more of the same here. Sure, it's possible that Nolan or Seth could guard the Harrison Barneses and the Chris Singletons of the world, and guard them well, but is it likely? I don't think so. Putting in that kind of height (and weight) differential would introduce a huge potential mismatch in our opponent's favor, when if we went with a more traditional lineup (with Kyle at the 3) there are no mismatches at all. Why make yourself vulnerable if you don't have to?

If our bigs were useless on offense perhaps you could make the argument (although it would be the exact same argument that was unsuccessfully made in 2009-10), but our bigs should have more than enough offense to complement our high-octane perimeter players. Miles and Mason were made to play in a running offense; we'll be seeing highlight reel alley-oops pretty much every game, and lots of 'em. Ryan has the makings of an excellent offensive player, assuming his defense improves enough to keep him on the floor for 15 to 18 minutes as I expect. Put another way, with Kyle at the 3 and two bigs we'll have one of the top ten offenses in the country -- there just isn't any need to hamstring ourselves on defense to provide a little more offense.

Having said that, I think there will be times when the small team will be used to full court press or half court trap and wreak havoc in a close game or when we're behind. I think it's possible we'll see it in some end games if we need better free throw shooting. But (a) a lot of the time Andre (rather than Seth) will be the third small in those situations; and (b) for the reasons I stated above (and other reasons) the small lineup generally won't start and will probably only play 10 to 15 minutes a game.

[Bob Green]

Defense is what matters at Duke.

I agree 100 percent and would add experience to the formula. For our returning players, using last year's stats, Kyle Singler is the leader in blocks with 32. Mason Plumlee is second with 30 and Miles Plumlee third with 26. Kyle Singler is the leader in rebounds with 280. Miles Plumlee is second with 197 and Mason Plumlee is third with 104. Nolan Smith is the leader in steals with 45. Kyle Singler is second with 41, Miles Plumlee is third with 20, and Mason Plumlee is fourth with 18.

Obviously, the numbers for Seth Curry and Kyrie Irving are all zeroes because they haven't played a game at Duke so far, however, we all realize how much potential they have and expect them to play lots of minutes and rack up impressive stats in the process. The point of my post, and previous posts in this thread, is to point out that Miles and Mason Plumlee have already played significant minutes and proven they can contribute to wins with blocks, rebounds, steals, points, etc...

[airowe]

Kedsy and Billy Dat, I think the most important part of your posts is that Mason and Miles were born to run. Neither one of them have a great back to the basket game. They never could play to their full potential last year because we played a much more half-court based offense.

The WF game BobGreen mentioned was one of the few games all year where Duke really ran because we had to. Ish Smith was the fastest PG in the country last year. They pushed tempo early in the game, and K adjusted. Look for more of the same next year with Kyrie, Nolan, and Seth leading the break when they're in the game. This will lead to multiple substitutions as well, so this argument may be moot as we could all be right by the end of the year...

[jipops]

Kedsy and Billy Dat, I think the most important part of your posts is that Mason and Miles were born to run. Neither one of them have a great back to the basket game. They never could play to their full potential last year because we played a much more half-court based offense.

The WF game BobGreen mentioned was one of the few games all year where Duke really ran because we had to. Ish Smith was the fastest PG in the country last year. They pushed tempo early in the game, and K adjusted. Look for more of the same next year with Kyrie, Nolan, and Seth leading the break when they're in the game. This will lead to multiple substitutions as well, so this argument may be moot as we could all be right by the end of the year...

And by coincidence (or not) the WF game was both Plumlees' best offensive game last year.

I for one became impressed with Miles' development on the defensive end toward the latter part of this past season. I think all the banging around with Zoubek may have helped him out in that regard. He reacted well in contesting the post and moved his body much better with less reaching. Mason on the other hand still seemed lost on that end of the floor but that is pretty much typical of most freshmen bigs, it was certainly the case with Miles' freshman year.

Healthy off-seasons are huge for development, and as far as we know everyone has been healthy since the close of the season.

[Bob Green]

The WF game BobGreen mentioned was one of the few games all year where Duke really ran because we had to. Ish Smith was the fastest PG in the country last year. They pushed tempo early in the game, and K adjusted....

This a great point. With the Plumlees on the court we can get out and run and then punish opponents with our depth. One improvement Mason is going to have to make is consistently getting back on defense in a fast paced environment.

[MisterRoddy]

This a great point. With the Plumlees on the court we can get out and run and then punish opponents with our depth. One improvement Mason is going to have to make is consistently getting back on defense in a fast paced environment.

This circles back to our lack of depth on the front line. Do you guys think our continuous running combined with the possibility of foul trouble will lead to Kelly and Hairston having to spell the Plumlees more often? Are you guys seeing a possible situation in the front court this year like we had with our guards last year where the Plumlees will have to conserve energy throughout the game? I guess a lot of it does depend on the development of Kelly and play of Hairston.

[toooskies]

The problem is whether Andre Dawkins and Tyler Thornton are ready to see significant minutes at the 1/2 spots. If you start three guards and play fast, then the backups need to be capable. If the backups aren't all there yet, you'll see Scheyer-as-a-sophomore from either Kyrie, Nolan, or Seth: coming off the bench and playing starter minutes. You only need to play small for 10 minutes a game for all of them to be on the floor 30 minutes each, and that's a lot for a freshman regardless of how good KI is.

Assuming we're going to play "fast", we're expecting 20 minutes out of AD/TT. I'm not sure that's to be expected unless AD proves he needs to be on the floor that much. Or it's out of necessity because of weaknesses of the big men.

[Billy Dat]

Are you guys seeing a possible situation in the front court this year like we had with our guards last year where the Plumlees will have to conserve energy throughout the game?

If you think about it, our lack of depth in the backcourt this year never really posed a problem. We had amazing talent (Earth, Wind and Scheyer) and we stayed healthy. As such, if we stay healthy next year, a huge if, we'll be ok. If we get into foul trouble, the depth in the backcourt will help as our small ball squad should be a real problem for teams to deal with. We'll spread teams out and run on offense and pressure passing lanes on D, etc. I think we'll go 3 guards with Singler sliding to the 4 quite a bit, I just don't think we'll start games that way or make it our primary style of play.

[Billy Dat]

The problem is whether Andre Dawkins and Tyler Thornton are ready to see significant minutes at the 1/2 spots.

Andre is another guy who has earned a lot of credibility with me. In some of the biggest spots of the year, the ACC Final against Tech and the Regional Final against Baylor, he had the stones to take and make HUGE shots in critical spots. Again, I feel that the most intense competition for minutes is going to be between he and Curry.

Naturally, this assumes Kyrie is the beast we all expect him to be. I can't bear to assume anything else.

[Bob Green]

This circles back to our lack of depth on the front line.

I do not agree a lack of depth on the front line exists. Ryan Kelly demonstrated solid skills as a freshman and his role will increase this season. RSCIHoops ranked him as the 14th best player in the Class of 2009. With a years experience under his belt and added strength from being a year older, I expect Kelly will be much improved.

Josh Hairston is ranked #27 in the Class of 2010, however, as with the vast majority of freshmen, we will have to wait and see how ready he is to play. At a minimum, he can provide spot minutes in relief of a player with foul trouble.

Moreover, everyone knows we will be going small at times with Kyle Singler playing power forward. How many minutes per game? I don't know but I expect it will be between 5 and 10 so let's call it 7.5 mpg. That means there are 72.5 mpg available to be split between Miles Plumlee, Mason Plumlee, Ryan Kelly, and Josh Hairston, so I conclude we do not have a depth issue along the front line.

[Kedsy]

This circles back to our lack of depth on the front line. Do you guys think our continuous running combined with the possibility of foul trouble will lead to Kelly and Hairston having to spell the Plumlees more often? Are you guys seeing a possible situation in the front court this year like we had with our guards last year where the Plumlees will have to conserve energy throughout the game? I guess a lot of it does depend on the development of Kelly and play of Hairston.

Augmenting what Bob Green said, there are 80 minutes for the 4 & 5 positions. Even with the fast pace and potential foul issues, the Plumlees ought to be good for 45 between them. Add 10 "big" minutes from Kyle, and we need only 25 minutes from Ryan and Josh combined (my guess is the split will be something like 18 and 7, but who knows for sure?).

If Miles and Mason are only playing 20 to 25 minutes, do you think they'd need to conserve their energy? It doesn't seem like they would to me.

Put another way, this past year Ryan hardly played and Kyle played almost exclusively at the 3, meaning we had a four big man rotation (including one fairly raw freshman and one sophomore who hadn't played any the year before). All played between 14 and 25 minutes. And we were considered very deep up front. Since we'll have pretty much the same thing next year I don't think we'll have a "lack of depth" on the inside. I think we'll have as much depth as this past year which in fact was a whole lot of depth. It only seems like less because we'll be soooooo deep on the perimeter next year.

[MisterRoddy]

I do not agree a lack of depth on the front line exists. Ryan Kelly demonstrated solid skills as a freshman and his role will increase this season. RSCIHoops ranked him as the 14th best player in the Class of 2009. With a years experience under his belt and added strength from being a year older, I expect Kelly will be much improved.

Josh Hairston is ranked #27 in the Class of 2010, however, as with the vast majority of freshmen, we will have to wait and see how ready he is to play. At a minimum, he can provide spot minutes in relief of a player with foul trouble.

Moreover, everyone knows we will be going small at times with Kyle Singler playing power forward. How many minutes per game? I don't know but I expect it will be between 5 and 10 so let's call it 7.5 mpg. That means there are 72.5 mpg available to be split between Miles Plumlee, Mason Plumlee, Ryan Kelly, and Josh Hairston, so I conclude we do not have a depth issue along the front line.

I agree with this, but to qualify a little bit, we won't have depth issues until a few cheap fouls are called on our big men or one of them roles an ankle. If we look at it from that perspective, than we do have depth issues. Other than that, we should be fine (but those scenarios still remain very real possibilities as we will certainly have a fair share of games in which our big men get in foul trouble and we all know the injury bug can hit very quickly).

[Bob Green]

I agree with this, but to qualify a little bit, we won't have depth issues until a few cheap fouls are called on our big men or one of them roles [sic] an ankle.

Okay, so if one big man rolls an ankle, while a second picks up some foul trouble, during the same game, we will be thin up front. Of course the same thing can be said about every team in the nation. However, disregarding that fact for a moment and going with your scenario, Coach K would be forced to adjust to a small line-up, which we can easily do due to our depth in the back court.

[Saratoga2]

Augmenting what Bob Green said, there are 80 minutes for the 4 & 5 positions. Even with the fast pace and potential foul issues, the Plumlees ought to be good for 45 between them. Add 10 "big" minutes from Kyle, and we need only 25 minutes from Ryan and Josh combined (my guess is the split will be something like 18 and 7, but who knows for sure?).

If Miles and Mason are only playing 20 to 25 minutes, do you think they'd need to conserve their energy? It doesn't seem like they would to me.

Put another way, this past year Ryan hardly played and Kyle played almost exclusively at the 3, meaning we had a four big man rotation (including one fairly raw freshman and one sophomore who hadn't played any the year before). All played between 14 and 25 minutes. And we were considered very deep up front. Since we'll have pretty much the same thing next year I don't think we'll have a "lack of depth" on the inside. I think we'll have as much depth as this past year which in fact was a whole lot of depth. It only seems like less because we'll be soooooo deep on the perimeter next year.

I guess the Plumlees will average 25 minutes a game. That is a lot for big men, but at least one will be needed in the game at all times, and they are likely to play together some of the time. That leaves 30 minutes available at the 4 and 5. If Kyle plays around 35 minutes a game, I think the vast majority will be at the 3, with maybe 5 minutes at the 4. That leaves the same 25 minutes you saw for the 4 and 5 positions. I am hoping that Ryan will be strong enough to play some 5 as well as the 4 slot and I think Josh is going to be a very positive help on the team getting more time than you think. I think Josh gets a minimum of 10 mpg with Ryan getting the remaining 15. That leaves only 10 minutes at the 3 for Dawkins. With Smith and Irving getting solid minutes, I suspect around 30 for Smith and 25 for Irving that leaves 25 minutes. I suspect Curry will get the majority of that, 20 minutes or so with Dawkins getting the remainder. I don't expect Thornton to get much PT, but all that can change based on performance and injuries. I look forward to the season. Do we know when the roster will come out?

[MisterRoddy]

Okay, so if one big man rolls an ankle, while a second picks up some foul trouble, during the same game, we will be thin up front. Of course the same thing can be said about every team in the nation. However, disregarding that fact for a moment and going with your scenario, Coach K would be forced to adjust to a small line-up, which we can easily do due to our depth in the back court.

I guess it all depends on what your definition of "depth" is. I would say (part of) depth is having the ability to lose a key player to foul trouble or injury for an extended period of time and still be relatively fine at that position. While we should be OK if we lose a Plumlee for an extended period of time, it wouldn't be easy. I say we will be ok because, as you said, we have the ability to move Kyle to the 4 and play small without losing any offensive production (defensive liabilities for the small lineup, however, remain to be seen).

[Kedsy]

I guess it all depends on what your definition of "depth" is. I would say (part of) depth is having the ability to lose a key player to foul trouble or injury for an extended period of time and still be relatively fine at that position. While we should be OK if we lose a Plumlee for an extended period of time, it wouldn't be easy. I say we will be ok because, as you said, we have the ability to move Kyle to the 4 and play small without losing any offensive production (defensive liabilities for the small lineup, however, remain to be seen).

Well, my question to you is, did we have frontcourt depth in 2009-10?

If so, we're just as deep next year. This past year we had one extra frontcourt player (Ryan Kelly), but Ryan hardly played and probably wouldn't have been ready to play extended minutes in the case of a major injury to one of the other bigs. The main difference is this past year we didn't really have the luxury of Kyle moving up front (because of our lack of backcourt depth) and next year we do. Meaning in 2010-11 we will in reality have more frontcourt depth than in 2009-10, when frontcourt depth was considered a big strength of the team.

[InSpades]

25 minutes per game for Ryan + Josh seems like a lot. The 2nd half of last season Ryan averaged about 3 minutes per game. Admittedly he was playing behind some very good players where Duke had more depth but when he did play he looked kind of lost to me.

Hopefully Ryan makes a big jump in his sophomore year and Josh comes in ready to play but right now it's very hard to tell. I don't compare Mason and Miles to Seth and Andre when thinking about who plays where next year. I compare Seth and Andre to Ryan and Josh I just have a lot more faith that the former 2 are ready to contribute.

Mason and Miles are going to see as much time on the court as they can handle between foul trouble and the grind of playing inside.

As the season wears on and the rotation tightens up a bit I think Kyle will end up spending more time at the 4 and less time at the 3. Ryan and Josh will end up losing time and I doubt that Miles or Mason will be able to take up the slack (not because they aren't good enough, just that it's tough to ask them to play more than say 25 minutes per game).

[MisterRoddy]

Well, my question to you is, did we have frontcourt depth in 2009-10?

If so, we're just as deep next year. This past year we had one extra frontcourt player (Ryan Kelly), but Ryan hardly played and probably wouldn't have been ready to play extended minutes in the case of a major injury to one of the other bigs. The main difference is this past year we didn't really have the luxury of Kyle moving up front (because of our lack of backcourt depth) and next year we do. Meaning in 2010-11 we will in reality have more frontcourt depth than in 2009-10, when frontcourt depth was considered a big strength of the team.

Well you have to remember we had 2 seniors last year compared to none this year. Seniors provide leadership and experience, 2 very important factors. Also, we had 3 guys capable of playing the center position last year (Zoubs, Mason, Miles) whereas this year, realistically, we only have 2 in Mason and Miles (I don't see Ryan or Josh playing the C position unless they absolutely HAVE to).

Also, you have to factor in the style of play. Last year was a much slower paced team so Lance and Zoubs (in particular) were able to play extended minutes barring foul trouble. This year, we will have a much more fast paced offense meaning foul trouble or not, Mason and Miles will need regular rests.

Bottom line, we should be fine in the front court as long as long as Ryan develops like he is expected to and Josh gives some solid minutes off the bench. Hopefully Miles and Mason can avoid injury and do their best to stay out of foul trouble. If they don't, I could potentially see a depth issue in our front court.

[NSDukeFan]

25 minutes per game for Ryan + Josh seems like a lot. The 2nd half of last season Ryan averaged about 3 minutes per game. Admittedly he was playing behind some very good players where Duke had more depth but when he did play he looked kind of lost to me.

Hopefully Ryan makes a big jump in his sophomore year and Josh comes in ready to play but right now it's very hard to tell. I don't compare Mason and Miles to Seth and Andre when thinking about who plays where next year. I compare Seth and Andre to Ryan and Josh I just have a lot more faith that the former 2 are ready to contribute.

Mason and Miles are going to see as much time on the court as they can handle between foul trouble and the grind of playing inside.

As the season wears on and the rotation tightens up a bit I think Kyle will end up spending more time at the 4 and less time at the 3. Ryan and Josh will end up losing time and I doubt that Miles or Mason will be able to take up the slack (not because they aren't good enough, just that it's tough to ask them to play more than say 25 minutes per game).

In Miles' freshman year, when he did not have as many solid players in front of him he started a few games early. That year he totaled 165 minutes, 42 points, 34 rebounds, 12 blocks, an assist and 4 steals.
Last year Ryan totaled 227 minutes, 41 points, 38 rebounds, 14 blocks, 13 assists and 8 steals.

Ryan had at least as good a freshman year as Miles did, even though he had greater competition for minutes with
4 quality big men playing ahead of him. He certainly showed enough potential that there are several posters (including me) that are expecting a big jump from him this year. Nothing is guaranteed, but I don't think it is unreasonable to expect that Ryan could be a solid contributor next year. He may even average close to the 16 minutes a game Miles averaged last year.

[Kedsy]

Well you have to remember we had 2 seniors last year compared to none this year. Seniors provide leadership and experience, 2 very important factors.

Well, these things are true, but I don't see how they have so much bearing on how much depth we'll have.


Also, we had 3 guys capable of playing the center position last year (Zoubs, Mason, Miles) whereas this year, realistically, we only have 2 in Mason and Miles (I don't see Ryan or Josh playing the C position unless they absolutely HAVE to).

We won't know whether Ryan can be the third-string center until we see how much he bulks up. Even if he can't defend opposing centers adequately, it's sort of nitpicky to start worrying about what happens if *both* Miles and Mason are unavailable in a game. Last year we might have been in trouble if both Z and Lance were out, but it didn't keep people from saying we had a lot of frontcourt depth.


Also, you have to factor in the style of play. Last year was a much slower paced team so Lance and Zoubs (in particular) were able to play extended minutes barring foul trouble. This year, we will have a much more fast paced offense meaning foul trouble or not, Mason and Miles will need regular rests.

Well, perhaps Lance and Z could have played extended minutes, but really they didn't very often. Lance averaged 25 and Z averaged 19, about the same aggregate I expect from the two Plumlees.

So I stand by my statement that our frontcourt is at least as deep as last year's and probably deeper (due to Kyle's availability in the frontcourt which he wasn't last year).

[Kedsy]

25 minutes per game for Ryan + Josh seems like a lot. The 2nd half of last season Ryan averaged about 3 minutes per game. Admittedly he was playing behind some very good players where Duke had more depth but when he did play he looked kind of lost to me.

Do you remember how lost Miles looked his freshman year? And he played even less in 2008-09 than Ryan did in 2009-10. The best thing about freshmen is they become sophomores (well, most of them, anyway). Ryan should be at least as capable next year as Miles was this year, and possibly more, and Miles played 16 mpg. So I don't think it's a stretch to predict 15 to 18 minutes for Ryan. I've never seen Josh Hairston play, but it doesn't seem terribly unreasonable to hope for 7 to 10 minutes a game, does it? Admittedly, that number may drop a little as the season wears on, allowing a couple more minutes for somebody else, but who knows, maybe not.

[MisterRoddy]

Well, these things are true, but I don't see how they have so much bearing on how much depth we'll have.



We won't know whether Ryan can be the third-string center until we see how much he bulks up. Even if he can't defend opposing centers adequately, it's sort of nitpicky to start worrying about what happens if *both* Miles and Mason are unavailable in a game. Last year we might have been in trouble if both Z and Lance were out, but it didn't keep people from saying we had a lot of frontcourt depth.



Well, perhaps Lance and Z could have played extended minutes, but really they didn't very often. Lance averaged 25 and Z averaged 19, about the same aggregate I expect from the two Plumlees.

So I stand by my statement that our frontcourt is at least as deep as last year's and probably deeper (due to Kyle's availability in the frontcourt which he wasn't last year).

Lance and Zoubs provided K with stability throughout the year whereas Mason and Miles were kind've up and down with their production throughout the year. Stability and reliability is what seniors provide which is what is important to depth.

As for being nit picky, I was more saying that if one of the Plumlees were unavailable for a game, certainly the other Plumlee can't play center for 40 minutes. It really does depend on whether Ryan (or Josh) can play the 5 respectably.

I don't think you can stand by that statement without actually seeing how the front court of this year's team performs. IMO, there are too many variables (will Ryan Kelly develop? Can Josh Hairston provide solid minutes off the bench? Can the Plumlees stay out of foul trouble? Etc.)

[InSpades]

In Miles' freshman year, when he did not have as many solid players in front of him he started a few games early. That year he totaled 165 minutes, 42 points, 34 rebounds, 12 blocks, an assist and 4 steals.
Last year Ryan totaled 227 minutes, 41 points, 38 rebounds, 14 blocks, 13 assists and 8 steals.

Ryan had at least as good a freshman year as Miles did, even though he had greater competition for minutes with
4 quality big men playing ahead of him. He certainly showed enough potential that there are several posters (including me) that are expecting a big jump from him this year. Nothing is guaranteed, but I don't think it is unreasonable to expect that Ryan could be a solid contributor next year. He may even average close to the 16 minutes a game Miles averaged last year.

Miles freshman year Duke had Thomas, Zoubek, McClure and some guy named Singler playing the 4-5 spots. I'd say that's plenty of competition for minutes considering Singler was going to play 30+ per game.

And just because Miles made a big jump from his freshman year to his sophomore year doesn't mean Ryan will do the same thing. Obviously he could... he could also not. Miles did look lost his freshman year... thankfully he figured things out. Not everyone does.

I think Dawkins has a lot less far to go to be a solid contributor than Kelly based off how they played last year.

[hedevil]

I have to strongly disagree with you as to our frontcourt being just as deep as last year. We lose two senior big men and gain just one freshman big man. Other than Miles, this years' big men lack experience in terms of playing even close to half of a game. Two sophmores and a freshman? I hope that everyone is right and all of these bigs are ready for the minutes you all are expecting of them.

Airowe- What you said is true. The players that I predict to play significant minutes (Seth and Kyrie) are just as unproven as the bigs that I call out for the same reasons (being unproven). If you consider Seth unproven after a year of competing and holding his own against the champs, then that's your right. I disagree. I think Seth has competed (at Duke) against ACC caliber competition. The only unproven one then, is Kyrie. I'm willing to wager, due to the fact that he will have the ball where he likes it (in his hands) from day one that he will be pretty darned good at worst. He is coach K's first #1 afterall. I kind of trust K on that one.

Sorry guys, but this wishful thinking is a bit of a stretch. I hope all turns out well too. We all do. I just think that hoping/expecting to go 3 for 3 on things turning out just like you expect is at least hopeful thinking, to say the least. Second half of the season, I predict we go small due to a lack of meeting expectations somewhere in our frontcourt. Kyle wll need to compensate at the 4, and for most of the second half of the season IMO. In a perfect world, I agree with popular opinion, that Miles and Mason can avoid injury, stay out of foul trouble, and will have the stamina to play at this teams' pace for over 20 minutes each. I hope I see it, but I just don't see it. RESPECTFULLY!!

[NSDukeFan]

Lance and Zoubs provided K with stability throughout the year whereas Mason and Miles were kind've up and down with their production throughout the year. Stability and reliability is what seniors provide which is what is important to depth.
Lance and Zoubs did provide stability last year. Keep in mind they totaled approximately 1100 minutes the year before, and were considered a bit up and down in terms of their consistency. In case you were wondering, Miles and Mason totaled about 1100 minutes last year. I think it may be reasonable to figure the Plumlees dunking company may be more consistent this year.

As for being nit picky, I was more saying that if one of the Plumlees were unavailable for a game, certainly the other Plumlee can't play center for 40 minutes. It really does depend on whether Ryan (or Josh) can play the 5 respectably.
I don't think there are too many teams in the NCAA who have a great third string center. Can you name any team in the NCAA who would have better third and fourth string centers than Ryan and Josh? Yes, if the team faces injuries, it won't be as solid, but that is true for any team.


I don't think you can stand by that statement without actually seeing how the front court of this year's team performs. IMO, there are too many variables (will Ryan Kelly develop? Can Josh Hairston provide solid minutes off the bench? Can the Plumlees stay out of foul trouble? Etc.)
One of the great things about college basketball is that players do improve over their 4 (or fewer) years. Nobody knows exactly how players will improve over the summer, but that is what makes it so exciting for us fanatics to think about over the summer. I don't have the answers to your questions, but you could ask similar questions for any team and I like the possibility of having some good answers to our questions with the 2010-11 Duke team over any other team in the country.

[Hermy-own]

Well, my question to you is, did we have frontcourt depth in 2009-10?

If so, we're just as deep next year. This past year we had one extra frontcourt player (Ryan Kelly), but Ryan hardly played and probably wouldn't have been ready to play extended minutes in the case of a major injury to one of the other bigs. The main difference is this past year we didn't really have the luxury of Kyle moving up front (because of our lack of backcourt depth) and next year we do. Meaning in 2010-11 we will in reality have more frontcourt depth than in 2009-10, when frontcourt depth was considered a big strength of the team.

Kedsy, I have to disagree. Last year we had 4 players who were capable of taking on major frontcourt minutes, in addition to Kyle and/or Ryan being able to play spot duty if it's needed.

This year I believe we will have three players capable of major minutes in the frontcourt - Miles, Mason and Ryan. In addition, Josh can play spot duty.

The wildcard this year is how many minutes Kyle can give in the frontcourt. It's true that we have superb depth at the guard position, but that doesn't mean we have superb depth at the small forward position. If Kyle swings to the 4 (which I expect for 5-10 minutes a game) then we will be giving up SERIOUS height to the opposing small forward - and possibly the opposing 4 as well. That could create some bad defensive matchups, such as Andre Dawkins guarding Harrison Barnes. Barnes could post him up, or shoot over him at will.

So, I think we will be in deep trouble if one of our three capable bigs goes down. We really don't have more depth down low than last year, because neither Kyle nor Josh can play lots of minutes down low. Josh because he is probably a liability, and Kyle because it will open up a problem at the 3 position. Last year, we really didn't face this problem at all.

The 2009-2010 Blue Devils were a freakishly tall team throughout their 7-8 man rotation, with only Nolan Smith being below average height for his position.

The 2010-2011 Blue Devils are a team of medium height overall, with very good height in the starting lineup.

[airowe]

I have to strongly disagree with you as to our frontcourt being just as deep as last year. We lose two senior big men and gain just one freshman big man. Other than Miles, this years' big men lack experience in terms of playing even close to half of a game. Two sophmores and a freshman? I hope that everyone is right and all of these bigs are ready for the minutes you all are expecting of them.

Miles -- Junior
Mason -- Sophomore
Ryan -- Sophomore
Josh -- Freshman

Seth -- Redshirt Sophomore
Andre -- Sophomore
Kyrie -- Freshman
Tyler -- Freshman

There's not a big difference here. In fact, I'd give the edge to the bigs in terms of experience.



Airowe- What you said is true. The players that I predict to play significant minutes (Seth and Kyrie) are just as unproven as the bigs that I call out for the same reasons (being unproven). If you consider Seth unproven after a year of competing and holding his own against the champs, then that's your right. I disagree. I think Seth has competed (at Duke) against ACC caliber competition.

I never said that, I was just pointing out your disparity in logic.



The only unproven one then, is Kyrie. I'm willing to wager, due to the fact that he will have the ball where he likes it (in his hands) from day one that he will be pretty darned good at worst. He is coach K's first #1 afterall. I kind of trust K on that one.

Kyrie will start and play a lot of minutes. Not disagreeing there.


Sorry guys, but this wishful thinking is a bit of a stretch. I hope all turns out well too. We all do. I just think that hoping/expecting to go 3 for 3 on things turning out just like you expect is at least hopeful thinking, to say the least. Second half of the season, I predict we go small due to a lack of meeting expectations somewhere in our frontcourt. Kyle wll need to compensate at the 4, and for most of the second half of the season IMO. In a perfect world, I agree with popular opinion, that Miles and Mason can avoid injury, stay out of foul trouble, and will have the stamina to play at this teams' pace for over 20 minutes each. I hope I see it, but I just don't see it. RESPECTFULLY!!

3 for 3 on things applies to both camps.

You think Seth will be ready for play, I think Mason will be ready for play.

You think Kyrie will be ready for play, I think Miles will be ready for play.

You think speed always wins over size, I think size can be tough to overcome if it is held by talented players.

Second half of the season is so far away, it's kind of hard to predict that, don't you think? What do you think will happen at the beginning of the season?

[NSDukeFan]

... The players that I predict to play significant minutes (Seth and Kyrie) are just as unproven as the bigs that I call out for the same reasons (being unproven). If you consider Seth unproven after a year of competing and holding his own against the champs, then that's your right. I disagree. ...

If you consider Ryan unproven after a year of competing and holding his own against the champs, that's your right. I expect he will be a solid contributor this year. It is going to be fun to find out.

[MisterRoddy]

Lance and Zoubs did provide stability last year. Keep in mind they totaled approximately 1100 minutes the year before, and were considered a bit up and down in terms of their consistency. In case you were wondering, Miles and Mason totaled about 1100 minutes last year. I think it may be reasonable to figure the Plumlees dunking company may be more consistent this year.

I don't think there are too many teams in the NCAA who have a great third string center. Can you name any team in the NCAA who would have better third and fourth string centers than Ryan and Josh? Yes, if the team faces injuries, it won't be as solid, but that is true for any team.

One of the great things about college basketball is that players do improve over their 4 (or fewer) years. Nobody knows exactly how players will improve over the summer, but that is what makes it so exciting for us fanatics to think about over the summer. I don't have the answers to your questions, but you could ask similar questions for any team and I like the possibility of having some good answers to our questions with the 2010-11 Duke team over any other team in the country.

I hope you are right about Miles and Mason.

As for the third-string center, our second-string center also happens to be our 1st string power-forward. An injury to Miles or Mason would take the other Plumlee out of the PF situation completely, leaving around 50 minutes (10 at the C position) to Ryan, Josh, and Kyle. Hopefully, there will be no injuries but if there is an injury, it would open up a situation in which we'd have inexperienced players playing huge minutes and players playing out of position.

For your last paragraph, exactly, nobody knows how players will improve. That's why I think Kedsy's statement that this upcoming years front court will have more depth than last year front court is a bit premature. There's no way to really accurately predict what we will get out of Ryan and Josh (2 very importing factors dealing with how much depth we will realistically have).

[hedevil]

Airowe - I have predicted repeatedly that I believe that coach K will switch things up for the first half of the season. That's posted on most of my posts. A feeling out process if you will.

NSDukefan - I said that about Seth because he was reported to be the best player at practice on numerous occassions last year. Not surprisingly, the same things are being reported now. The same can't be said for Ryan, although I do agree with everyone that he should/probably will make gains this year.

[hedevil]

Airowe - Sorry I missed this before. You forgot to throw Nolan into that guard lineup. My point is that, more bodies, means more room for error by any said player. We can throw Kyle into the guards list too which would further my point of guard depth since most people think that he will be playing most of his minutes at the 3.

[NSDukeFan]

Miles freshman year Duke had Thomas, Zoubek, McClure and some guy named Singler playing the 4-5 spots. I'd say that's plenty of competition for minutes considering Singler was going to play 30+ per game.

And just because Miles made a big jump from his freshman year to his sophomore year doesn't mean Ryan will do the same thing. Obviously he could... he could also not. Miles did look lost his freshman year... thankfully he figured things out. Not everyone does.

I think Dawkins has a lot less far to go to be a solid contributor than Kelly based off how they played last year.

Good points. Miles did have some competition as well, though juniors Lance and Zoubs were not anywhere near as solid as seniors Lance and Zoubs. That guy named Singler certainly is and was pretty good.

I also agree there is no guarantee that Ryan will make as big a freshman-sophomore jump as Miles did. I just think based on their respective freshman seasons, that Ryan is at least as likely, if not more likely, to.

I also don't disagree that Dawkins has less far to go to be a solid contributor based on how they played last year. (The team is national champs in no small part because of some of the huge plays he made in the tournament.) Ryan will have a much better opportunity to show what he can do this year, with a year under his belt and a summer to improve and get stronger. I think they will both make solid contributions to this year's team.

[Billy Dat]

MPG
Singler 35
Smith 30
Irving 30
MP1 25
MP2 25
Curry 25
Dawkins 12.5
Kelly 12.5
Hairston 5
200
How about this scenario? It allows Ironman Kyle to slide from the 3 to the 4 as the game needs mandate, gives Nolan more rest than this year, accounts for Nolan and Curry to run PG when Kyrie gets a rest, assumes starting for both Plumlees, allows plenty of minutes for small ball, gives Ryan Kelly a larger roll, is basically an 8 man rotation with Hairston getting spot minutes.

[Kedsy]

MPG
Singler 35
Smith 30
Irving 30
MP1 25
MP2 25
Curry 25
Dawkins 12.5
Kelly 12.5
Hairston 5
200
How about this scenario? It allows Ironman Kyle to slide from the 3 to the 4 as the game needs mandate, gives Nolan more rest than this year, accounts for Nolan and Curry to run PG when Kyrie gets a rest, assumes starting for both Plumlees, allows plenty of minutes for small ball, gives Ryan Kelly a larger roll, is basically an 8 man rotation with Hairston getting spot minutes.

This could be what it looks like at the end of the season, depending on how well Andre, Ryan, and Josh respond to their early- and mid-season minutes. But overall I think you're overselling Kyrie's, Seth's, and the MPs minutes and underselling Andre's and Ryan's. No idea about Josh but I'm hoping you're underselling him a bit as well.

[MisterRoddy]

MPG
Singler 35
Smith 30
Irving 30
MP1 25
MP2 25
Curry 25
Dawkins 12.5
Kelly 12.5
Hairston 5
200
How about this scenario? It allows Ironman Kyle to slide from the 3 to the 4 as the game needs mandate, gives Nolan more rest than this year, accounts for Nolan and Curry to run PG when Kyrie gets a rest, assumes starting for both Plumlees, allows plenty of minutes for small ball, gives Ryan Kelly a larger roll, is basically an 8 man rotation with Hairston getting spot minutes.

How about taking a few minutes away from Kyle and giving them to Dre. We need Kyle fresh for the Tourney and 35 minutes/game isn't the best way to make sure that happens. Also, hopefully Andre's play warrants at least 15 min/game.

[airowe]

Airowe - Sorry I missed this before. You forgot to throw Nolan into that guard lineup.

I left Nolan out because everyone knows he'll be starting and playing major minutes. Same for Kyle. I was just going with the players who are integral to your discussion of experience being the variable that will determine playing time.


We can throw Kyle into the guards list too which would further my point of guard depth since most people think that he will be playing most of his minutes at the 3.

Wait, so you're putting Kyle at the 3? So you think we're gonna go big? Why all the disagreement? ;)

[Bob Green]

We need Kyle fresh for the Tourney and 35 minutes/game isn't the best way to make sure that happens.

Please....not the tired ol' "tired legs" argument. Kyle Singler was the Final Four Most Outstanding Player last season, while averaging 35.9 minutes per game for the season. He can and will play 35 minutes a game as a senior.

[Kedsy]

I have to strongly disagree with you as to our frontcourt being just as deep as last year. We lose two senior big men and gain just one freshman big man. Other than Miles, this years' big men lack experience in terms of playing even close to half of a game. Two sophmores and a freshman? I hope that everyone is right and all of these bigs are ready for the minutes you all are expecting of them.


Sorry guys, but this wishful thinking is a bit of a stretch.

It's funny how history looks in hindsight. Last year at this time an awful lot of posters thought Lance and Z couldn't possibly improve over their junior years' performance and thus should be relegated to the end of the bench. People had high hopes for the freshman Mason but a lot of people didn't think we could rely on the sophomore Miles who had hardly played the year before, and the jury seemed to be split on freshman Ryan. There were those who were hoping Olek would have a breakout year.

If you compare what we have now to what we had a year ago, our frontcourt looks deeper and better. Last year's frontcourt depth became a strength because of the vast improvement of Z, Lance, and Miles.

Was that improvement a surprise? Well, it shouldn't have been but it seemed to be for most of the people on these boards. Players almost always improve each year, and the biggest jump is usually freshman to sophomore.

Obviously nobody can truly predict the future, and everything can change if we suffer major injuries, but to me, your calling the idea that Ryan Kelly will improve enough to play decent minutes and the expectation that Mason and Miles will improve enough to stay on the court for 20+ minutes a game to be "wishful thinking" is what's really a stretch.

[Billy Dat]

My 35mpg for Kyle was based on K's historical tendancy to ride his favorite ponies to the max. I think he'll be able to resist with Nolan assuming Seth, Kyrie and Andre are all game, but I feel like K will find it hard to remove Kyle from the game. As far as a precendent for a jump in MPG, Nolan jumped from 21 in his soph year to 35 last year...granted that 21 was dragged down a bit by those games when he was coming back from his concussion.

[MisterRoddy]

Please....not the tired ol' "tired legs" argument. Kyle Singler was the Final Four Most Outstanding Player last season, while averaging 35.9 minutes per game for the season. He can and will play 35 minutes a game as a senior.

Kyle won't need to play 35 per if we are blowing teams out half the time :)

[Big Pappa]

We can throw Kyle into the guards list too which would further my point of guard depth since most people think that he will be playing most of his minutes at the 3.

hedevil, is this a concession???

[airowe]

hedevil, is this a concession???


I think it isn't, but it sure was a softball I couldn't help but pounce on. Nice to see you couldn't either. ;)

[Greg_Newton]

Sorry guys, but this wishful thinking is a bit of a stretch. I hope all turns out well too. We all do. I just think that hoping/expecting to go 3 for 3 on things turning out just like you expect is at least hopeful thinking, to say the least. Second half of the season, I predict we go small due to a lack of meeting expectations somewhere in our frontcourt. Kyle wll need to compensate at the 4, and for most of the second half of the season IMO. In a perfect world, I agree with popular opinion, that Miles and Mason can avoid injury, stay out of foul trouble, and will have the stamina to play at this teams' pace for over 20 minutes each. I hope I see it, but I just don't see it. RESPECTFULLY!!

Just wanted to say that hopefully you're not feeling too ganged up on by everyone (including myself) for debating your point. You've made some reasonable arguments - I actually agree with you that Kyrie and Seth are less question marks than Mason and Miles, I just don't agree that that warrants going small - and this has been one of the more interesting threads I've read lately. Just keep in mind you'll generally be asked to defend most bold statements you make here.

Also, I think the main reason you're getting jumped on is because you were originally saying that we will go with the 3G lineup, rather than why you think we should. Jim has essentially said that at this point in time, the coaching staff disagrees with your prediction, which is kind of the end of that discussion. Arguing why it would make sense is fine though.

-----------------

Anyway, one general point that I'm going to try to type as quietly as possible as to not anger the gods... but I think when we're looking back at next season's minutes distribution, there will be more parity than some might expect. Reason being, honestly, we're going to run a lot of teams out of the gym. This is one of the most stacked, explosive rosters we've ever had, and it's going up against one of the weakest fields there's ever been. We'll lose a few games when Mason and Miles foul out, our shots aren't falling and Kyrie becomes an ATM, but I also expect a lot of ~20-point second half leads with reserves coasting in and out.

ETA: I'd bet money that Kyle averages < 35 mpg next year, due to both pace and the reasons above.

[_TheFakeJWill_]

ok kinda OT.... but if Rivers comes to duke in the 11-12 season would he play the 3 spot? i know he's more of a 2 or a point 2 but he is 6' 4'' though and would obviously be taller than Seth playing the 3 this year like some are hinting towards and i just dont see Rivers riding the bench and not being a starter. (sorry random thought) and just wanted to get someones 2 cents.

[MChambers]

Please....not the tired ol' "tired legs" argument. Kyle Singler was the Final Four Most Outstanding Player last season, while averaging 35.9 minutes per game for the season. He can and will play 35 minutes a game as a senior.
It's June, and someone's already worried about tired legs. Who needs parody?

But Bob, think how good Kyle would have been if his legs had been fresh! In fact, it was probably part of a diabolical Coach K plot to make Kyle look average, so that the NBA scouts wouldn't rate him as a lottery pick, and make him return to Duke. How dastardly!

[MisterRoddy]

It's June, and someone's already worried about tired legs. Who needs parody?

But Bob, think how good Kyle would have been if his legs had been fresh! In fact, it was probably part of a diabolical Coach K plot to make Kyle look average, so that the NBA scouts wouldn't rate him as a lottery pick, and make him return to Duke. How dastardly!

You really are cracking me up.

[Newton_14]

Also, I think the main reason you're getting jumped on is because you were originally saying that we will go with the 3G lineup, rather than why you think we should. Jim has essentially said that at this point in time, the coaching staff disagrees with your prediction, which is kind of the end of that discussion. Arguing why it would make sense is fine though.

-----------------

Anyway, one general point that I'm going to try to type as quietly as possible as to not anger the gods... but I think when we're looking back at next season's minutes distribution, there will be more parity than some might expect. Reason being, honestly, we're going to run a lot of teams out of the gym. This is one of the most stacked, explosive rosters we've ever had, and it's going up against one of the weakest fields there's ever been. We'll lose a few games when Mason and Miles foul out, our shots aren't falling and Kyrie becomes an ATM, but I also expect a lot of ~20-point second half leads with reserves coasting in and out.

ETA: I'd bet money that Kyle averages < 35 mpg next year, due to both pace and the reasons above.

I agree on all points. The bolded parts are points of emphasis.

Make A Reasoned Argument
This board is great because the expectation is if you take a stance or position, then you should give sound reasoning, stats, past history, etc to back up your argument. Most posters are really good at sticking to that. I performed some research last night on rebounding and as soon as I figure out how to post the table that shows our rebounding in past years I will share that with you good folks!:D The numbers surprised even me, and I was expecting less actually than what they actually were. Interesting to look at rebound stats in select years where we either won the title or made the FF, verses select years where we had good/great teams that fell short of the FF. Hedevil may;) be surprised to see the numbers.

Know who to listen to
Jim Sumner is kind of like the old EF Hutton comercials, when Jim speaks it is a good idea to listen. For instance if Jim says "the staff plans to do X", then just recognize that likely came directly from the coaching staff.;)

Parity In Minutes in 2010-11
I liken this coming season to the 97-98 season in terms of number of players getting double digit minutes and the rotation being 8 to 9 rather than 6 to 7. Losing Felix hurt that a little, but I still think we will be 8 to 9 strong in most games in terms of rotation. Roster is stacked with really good talent.

Good news is, playing big or small, this team should put the hurt on opponents!:eek:

[Bob Green]

It's June, and someone's already worried about tired legs. Who needs parody?

But Bob, think how good Kyle would have been if his legs had been fresh! In fact, it was probably part of a diabolical Coach K plot to make Kyle look average, so that the NBA scouts wouldn't rate him as a lottery pick, and make him return to Duke. How dastardly!

I've overlooked the obvious again. Thanks for straightening me out! :)

[hedevil]

Just to clarify, no one is doubting or questioning Jim's accuracy or credibility here. Bottom line is, not even coach K can possibly know what the season will bring. At this point he (K) has a series of ideas that he might be thinking of trying out. The main idea seems to be that he will go big to start the season. HENCE, my predictions have all been made based on the second half of the season. No one knows what will come late in the season (including myself). My opinions are based on where I see our depth, strengths, and advantages (though they may differ from most). Obviously I'm on an island in my thoughts but that doesn't mean that I'm wrong. When all is said and done, I'll either be mistaken, which I don't mind at all, especially if Duke's winning. OR, I could come out looking like the basketball genius that I know I am.:)

Big Pappa- Sorry. Airowe got it right. That's not a concession at all. I'm pretty stubborn and set in my beliefs on this lineup topic.:)

Kedsy- don't count me in the group who doubted Z and Lance. I don't think you were, but you referred to it while commenting to one of my previous posts. As far as frontcourt depth is concerned, I still couldn't disagree more. I think we're thinner (frontcourt) than last year. I think some people are overcompensating so as not to make the same mistake twice. Last year too many people underestimated our bigs. This year they might be overestimating them. Personally, I don't think that overestimating them is necessarily possible because they are great players (our bigs), I do however think that raising the bar of expectations too high IS possible, and we need to be careful not to do that.

Greg Newton- thanks for the kind words. I don't feel ganged up on at all. I have my opinion, and others have theirs. As far as I'm concerned we are all Duke supporters discussing Duke basketball. Sometimes I'll be in the majority of certain issues, sometimes not. That's life. I actually like the debate. Actually, hearing fellow supporters make arguments that contrast with mine puts my mind somewhat at ease. This kind of back and forth can sometimes bring perspectives/ideas that I hadn't considered to the same extent as what I believe will/should be. You stated earlier that I seem to be quoting myself in a what will be manner, as opposed to a what should be manner. I would apologize for that one, but once again my psychic abilities are kicking in and I'm sticking to my guns. What I say will be! Duke will 100% go small in the second half of the season! Just kidding all. I do predict that though! :)

[oldnavy]

It's June, and someone's already worried about tired legs. Who needs parody?

But Bob, think how good Kyle would have been if his legs had been fresh! In fact, it was probably part of a diabolical Coach K plot to make Kyle look average, so that the NBA scouts wouldn't rate him as a lottery pick, and make him return to Duke. How dastardly!

Thanks for the early morning laugh! Of course it was a diabolical plan to manipulate the media and the refs, and the NBA scouts, and...

I would take the bet that Kyle plays >35 mins IF I were a betting man. The subs will come from other positions during blowouts (except in excessive situations: >35 point leads with <8 mins to go when every starter is out), but Kyle stays on the court. One thing we tend to forget is the players hardly ever want to come out of a game, and Kyle has earned the minutes, so I believe K will let him (and Nolan for that matter) play as much as he can.

[MisterRoddy]

Thanks for the early morning laugh! Of course it was a diabolical plan to manipulate the media and the refs, and the NBA scouts, and...

I would take the bet that Kyle plays >35 mins IF I were a betting man. The subs will come from other positions during blowouts (except in excessive situations: >35 point leads with <8 mins to go when every starter is out), but Kyle stays on the court. One thing we tend to forget is the players hardly ever want to come out of a game, and Kyle has earned the minutes, so I believe K will let him (and Nolan for that matter) play as much as he can.

I say Kyle plays 32 minutes (24 at the 3, 8 at the 4). This gives him a good 4 minute rest each half on average.

Of course this depends on Dawkins and Kellys development, if they develop like expected, I say Kyle plays 32. If not, he'll probably play 35+.

[ACCBBallFan]

This could be what it looks like at the end of the season, depending on how well Andre, Ryan, and Josh respond to their early- and mid-season minutes. But overall I think you're overselling Kyrie's, Seth's, and the MPs minutes and underselling Andre's and Ryan's. No idea about Josh but I'm hoping you're underselling him a bit as well.

I agree with this post but not the beginning of next one. Duke front court depth is at bare minimum given that 3 is too few a margin for error and Duke has three non frosh and a frosh plus Singler if forced to go that route.


It's funny how history looks in hindsight. Last year at this time an awful lot of posters thought Lance and Z couldn't possibly improve over their junior years' performance and thus should be relegated to the end of the bench. People had high hopes for the freshman Mason but a lot of people didn't think we could rely on the sophomore Miles who had hardly played the year before, and the jury seemed to be split on freshman Ryan. There were those who were hoping Olek would have a breakout year.

If you compare what we have now to what we had a year ago, our frontcourt looks deeper and better. Last year's frontcourt depth became a strength because of the vast improvement of Z, Lance, and Miles.

Was that improvement a surprise? Well, it shouldn't have been but it seemed to be for most of the people on these boards. Players almost always improve each year, and the biggest jump is usually freshman to sophomore.

Obviously nobody can truly predict the future, and everything can change if we suffer major injuries, but to me, your calling the idea that Ryan Kelly will improve enough to play decent minutes and the expectation that Mason and Miles will improve enough to stay on the court for 20+ minutes a game to be "wishful thinking" is what's really a stretch.

I do agree with the latter part that perhaps Duke gets 45 total minutes out of the two Plumlees before fouls excuse them, another 10 from Singler at PF, leaving 25 for Ryan and Josh to share proibably unequally 15-20 for Ryan and 5 - 10 for Josh.

If Ryan or Josh are not as ready as expected, then Kyle can play more PF than 10 MPG given the makeup of ACC PF/C previously posted and Duke can be equally effective playing 3 small with Nolan playing 30 MPG or more and the trio of Irving, Curry and Dawkins taking the bulk of the remaining 1-2-3 minutes not consumed by Nolan's 30 MPG and Kyle's whatever depending on whether that is mostly WF, mostly PF or split down the middle 15 MPG each..

[sagegrouse]

Suppose that Curry, Kyrie and Dawkins are all terrific and have to (HAVE TO!) play 25 minutes per game each. I can handle it, but what does this do to the rotation and the time spent on the court by big men? That’s 75 minutes against a game total of 200.

Also assume 30 minutes each for Nolan and Kyle (yeah, right -- Kyle sitting ten minutes?). That makes 135 minutes.

That leaves 65 minutes for other players, which we will assume are 6-8 or taller. ;) Suppose 45 minutes for the Plumlees -- 50% more than this year. That leaves 20 minutes – 10 or so for Ryan and 5 for Hairston and up to five minutes for others..

Is that enough time for the Plumlees, whom I expect to start? Considering foul trouble and normal rotation, I doubt that combined they would ever average 30 minutes. So, maybe they would need to play 25 minutes each, which would crimp some of the others playing time. OTOH In games with our bigs in foul trouble, there will be plenty of minutes for Ryan and Josh.

The other issue is, how much would we have to play Curry, Kyrie and Nolan at the same time in a really small 3-guard lineup? Thirty minutes for Nolan and 25 each for Seth and Kyrie are 80 minutes, which eats up all the minutes at the 1 and 2. If we go small only occasionally, that means that Andre gets his minutes primarily when Kyle is on the bench or playing the 4.

I apologize if some other miscreant expressed the same thoughts in an earlier post. I am just catching up with this thread....

Some thoughts --

sagegrouse

[Big Pappa]

Suppose that Curry, Kyrie and Dawkins are all terrific and have to (HAVE TO!) play 25 minutes per game each. I can handle it, but what does this do to the rotation and the time spent on the court by big men? That’s 75 minutes against a game total of 200.

Also assume 30 minutes each for Nolan and Kyle (yeah, right -- Kyle sitting ten minutes?). That makes 135 minutes.

That leaves 65 minutes for other players, which we will assume are 6-8 or taller. ;) Suppose 45 minutes for the Plumlees -- 50% more than this year. That leaves 20 minutes – 10 or so for Ryan and 5 for Hairston and up to five minutes for others..

Is that enough time for the Plumlees, whom I expect to start? Considering foul trouble and normal rotation, I doubt that combined they would ever average 30 minutes. So, maybe they would need to play 25 minutes each, which would crimp some of the others playing time. OTOH In games with our bigs in foul trouble, there will be plenty of minutes for Ryan and Josh.

The other issue is, how much would we have to play Curry, Kyrie and Nolan at the same time in a really small 3-guard lineup? Thirty minutes for Nolan and 25 each for Seth and Kyrie are 80 minutes, which eats up all the minutes at the 1 and 2. If we go small only occasionally, that means that Andre gets his minutes primarily when Kyle is on the bench or playing the 4.

I apologize if some other miscreant expressed the same thoughts in an earlier post. I am just catching up with this thread....

Some thoughts --

sagegrouse

My initial thought is that I see no scenario where Dre commands 25 mpg with the personell we have. Seth and KI very well could play 25 mpg, but I see Dre down around 17. That adds 8 minutes which I see going to two players - 5 to whichever Plumlee you had only playing 20 minutes (to put them both at 25) and the other 3 to Kyle who I see playing right around 32-33 mpg.

I think Kyle probably spends between 3-5 mpg playing the 4 with Dre playing the 3. I think you are right in saying Dre gets his main minutes when Kyle is on the bench or at the 4.

[sagegrouse]

My initial thought is that I see no scenario where Dre commands 25 mpg with the personell we have. Seth and KI very well could play 25 mpg, but I see Dre down around 17.
I don't disagree with you. But as I stated, this was a pipe dream, not a prediction. That said, I still give some credit to a guy we have seen play for Duke -- and make some big plays in both tournaments -- over two guys that we haven't.


That adds 8 minutes which I see going to two players - 5 to whichever Plumlee you had only playing 20 minutes (to put them both at 25) and the other 3 to Kyle who I see playing right around 32-33 mpg.

I think Kyle probably spends between 3-5 mpg playing the 4 with Dre playing the 3. I think you are right in saying Dre gets his main minutes when Kyle is on the bench or at the 4.

In 2009-10 the five "bigs" -- MP1, MP2, LT, Zoubs, and Ryan -- averaged 78 minutes per game. So, under both your and my assumptions, there will be fewer minutes to players marked as 4 or 5.

FWIW, after being inserted in the starting lineup vs. Maryland, Zoubs averaged about 24 minutes per game -- and I thought he was one of the best players in the country over that period. So, 24 MPG is a lot of time on the court for a big galoot, and I would be comfortable with those minutes if either Plumlee earns them through outstanding play. Interestingly, although Zoubs was more foul-prone than anyone on the team over the entire year, his minutes per foul increased substantially after becoming a starter.

sagegrouse

[Indoor66]

I don't disagree with you. But as I stated, this was a pipe dream, not a prediction. That said, I still give some credit to a guy we have seen play for Duke -- and make some big plays in both tournaments -- over two guys that we haven't.



In 2009-10 the five "bigs" -- MP1, MP2, LT, Zoubs, and Ryan -- averaged 78 minutes per game. So, under both your and my assumptions, there will be fewer minutes to players marked as 4 or 5.

FWIW, after being inserted in the starting lineup vs. Maryland, Zoubs averaged about 24 minutes per game -- and I thought he was one of the best players in the country over that period. So, 24 MPG is a lot of time on the court for a big galoot, and I would be comfortable with those minutes if either Plumlee earns them through outstanding play. Interestingly, although Zoubs was more foul-prone than anyone on the team over the entire year, his minutes per foul increased substantially after becoming a starter.

sagegrouse

Rarely do the galoots get over 25 minutes per game. They are often in the 18 - 24 minute range. One must be guarded when making predictions about galoots. I think you are accurate.

[Osiagledknarf]

My initial thought is that I see no scenario where Dre commands 25 mpg with the personell we have. Seth and KI very well could play 25 mpg, but I see Dre down around 17. That adds 8 minutes which I see going to two players - 5 to whichever Plumlee you had only playing 20 minutes (to put them both at 25) and the other 3 to Kyle who I see playing right around 32-33 mpg.

I think Kyle probably spends between 3-5 mpg playing the 4 with Dre playing the 3. I think you are right in saying Dre gets his main minutes when Kyle is on the bench or at the 4.

Agreed here. I see Dre around 15-20 minutes mainly while Kyle is on the bench, playing the 4 or if we do start 3 guards and would get more minutes at the 2 as well. If we do go to the 3 guard, two forward system it will totally shake up the depth chart and who will get more minutes and who does not.

If we do in fact go to this, then Tyler Thornton will see more time at 1 as the primary backup to KI, and would get around 5-10 minutes a game when Kyrie needs a breather. So you would see the guards minutes sort of look like this:

Smith: 25-30
Curry: 25-30
Irving: 25-30
Dawkins: 15-20
Thornton: 5-10

As for the bigs, like Sagegrouse said, I doubt any big plays over 30 minutes due to foul trouble and rotations, no one will likely get 30 minutes consistently. I see the bigs breaking down like this.

Mason 25
Miles 20-25
Kelly: 10-15
Hairston: 10-15

I think you will see everyone contribute if we do in fact go this 3 guard starting lineup. Thoughts.

[MisterRoddy]

Agreed here. I see Dre around 15-20 minutes mainly while Kyle is on the bench, playing the 4 or if we do start 3 guards and would get more minutes at the 2 as well. If we do go to the 3 guard, two forward system it will totally shake up the depth chart and who will get more minutes and who does not.

If we do in fact go to this, then Tyler Thornton will see more time at 1 as the primary backup to KI, and would get around 5-10 minutes a game when Kyrie needs a breather. So you would see the guards minutes sort of look like this:

Smith: 25-30
Curry: 25-30
Irving: 25-30
Dawkins: 15-20
Thornton: 5-10

As for the bigs, like Sagegrouse said, I doubt any big plays over 30 minutes due to foul trouble and rotations, no one will likely get 30 minutes consistently. I see the bigs breaking down like this.

Mason 25
Miles 20-25
Kelly: 10-15
Hairston: 10-15

I think you will see everyone contribute if we do in fact go this 3 guard starting lineup. Thoughts.

There's no way Seth plays 25-30 minutes while not being the primary backup to Kyrie. If both Seth and Andre play around what you have projected, Tyler Thornton will unfortunately be the odd man out getting around a minute or less per game.

[SilkyJ]

Please....not the tired ol' "tired legs" argument. Kyle Singler was the Final Four Most Outstanding Player last season, while averaging 35.9 minutes per game for the season. He can and will play 35 minutes a game as a senior.

I'm with ya on the tired legs discussion, but let's not forget style of play, Bob. Last year we played a deliberate, half-court style both due to our personnel and the fact that Jon, Nolan and Kyle basically couldn't come out of the game.

This coming year should see a lot more up and down play and so I'd expect to see a slight reduction in minutes for Kyle and Nolan in order to suit that style of play.

I'm not talking about anything drastic, and in big games they might play the whole time, but just saying that conceptually, resting them a bit more would make sense if it means they can run better/more to fit our style when they are in the game.

[Kedsy]

Agreed here. I see Dre around 15-20 minutes mainly while Kyle is on the bench, playing the 4 or if we do start 3 guards and would get more minutes at the 2 as well. If we do go to the 3 guard, two forward system it will totally shake up the depth chart and who will get more minutes and who does not.

If we do in fact go to this, then Tyler Thornton will see more time at 1 as the primary backup to KI, and would get around 5-10 minutes a game when Kyrie needs a breather. So you would see the guards minutes sort of look like this:

Smith: 25-30
Curry: 25-30
Irving: 25-30
Dawkins: 15-20
Thornton: 5-10

As for the bigs, like Sagegrouse said, I doubt any big plays over 30 minutes due to foul trouble and rotations, no one will likely get 30 minutes consistently. I see the bigs breaking down like this.

Mason 25
Miles 20-25
Kelly: 10-15
Hairston: 10-15

I think you will see everyone contribute if we do in fact go this 3 guard starting lineup. Thoughts.

You forgot Kyle in these minute predictions. Adding in his 30 to 35 minutes will be necessity take most or all of Tyler's minutes and ensure that Seth and Kyrie don't get up as high as 30, and also would keep either Mason or Miles down around 20.

[Osiagledknarf]

You forgot Kyle in these minute predictions. Adding in his 30 to 35 minutes will be necessity take most or all of Tyler's minutes and ensure that Seth and Kyrie don't get up as high as 30, and also would keep either Mason or Miles down around 20.

Oops, my bad. Let's try this again. With Singler in the equation it changes a bunch of things.

Guards:

Irving: 20-25
Curry: 20-25
Nolan: 25-30
Dawkins: 15-20

Big's:

Singler: 30-35
Mason: 20
Miles: 15
Kelly: 15
Hairston: 5-10 minutes

[Kedsy]

Oops, my bad. Let's try this again. With Singler in the equation it changes a bunch of things.

Guards:

Irving: 20-25
Curry: 20-25
Nolan: 25-30
Dawkins: 15-20

Big's:

Singler: 30-35
Mason: 20
Miles: 15
Kelly: 15
Hairston: 5-10 minutes

Well, now you're 5 minutes short, even if they all play the maximum in your ranges. Give those 5 to Miles (and assume the maximum for most everyone else) and I think you're pretty close.

Personally, I might quibble a little for a few minutes here and a couple minutes there (e.g., make Seth 22 and Mason 23; make Ryan 17 and Josh 8) but it's just guesswork at that point and you're definitely in the reasonable realm.

[MisterRoddy]

Oops, my bad. Let's try this again. With Singler in the equation it changes a bunch of things.

Guards:

Irving: 20-25
Curry: 20-25
Nolan: 25-30
Dawkins: 15-20
Big's:

Singler: 30-35
Mason: 20
Miles: 15
Kelly: 15
Hairston: 5-10 minutes

I think it's safe to say Kyrie should
at least play around 25 minutes.

How about this

1) Kyrie (28), Seth (10), Thornton (2)
2) Nolan (28), Seth (12)
3) Kyle (24), Andre (16)
4) Mason (16), Kyle (8) Ryan (8), Josh (8)
5) Miles (24), Mason (10) Ryan (6)

This makes it so:

Kyrie: 28
Seth: 22
Thornton (2)
Nolan: 28
Kyle: 32
Andre: 16
Mason: 26
Ryan: 14
Josh: 8
Miles: 24

Obviously, this is more detailed but this is my projection.
Hopefully Ryan can hold down the fort at center for a few minutes (yes, Iv'e resorted to the fact that Ryan will probably get more minutes at the 5 than Josh).

[Kedsy]

I think it's safe to say Kyrie should
at least play around 25 minutes.

How about this

1) Kyrie (28), Seth (10), Thornton (2)
2) Nolan (28), Seth (12)
3) Kyle (24), Andre (16)
4) Mason (16), Kyle (8) Ryan (8), Josh (8)
5) Miles (24), Mason (10) Ryan (6)

This makes it so:

Kyrie: 28
Seth: 22
Thornton (2)
Nolan: 28
Kyle: 32
Andre: 16
Mason: 26
Ryan: 14
Josh: 8
Miles: 24

Obviously, this is more detailed but this is my projection.
Hopefully Ryan can hold down the fort at center for a few minutes (yes, Iv'e resorted to the fact that Ryan will probably get more minutes at the 5 than Josh).

This is also pretty reasonable, although based on history it would seem your minutes for Mason and Miles are probably a little high. If you take two or three of their minutes and give them to Andre and Ryan, you and I would be in synch on this. (Although I also might give a couple of Kyrie's minutes to Nolan.)

[Cockabeau]

kyrie-30
Nolan-30
Seth-30
Kyle-30
Plumlee-30
Dawkins-20
Plumlee-20
Kelly-10

[Big Pappa]

This is also pretty reasonable, although based on history it would seem your minutes for Mason and Miles are probably a little high. If you take two or three of their minutes and give them to Andre and Ryan, you and I would be in synch on this. (Although I also might give a couple of Kyrie's minutes to Nolan.)

I agree with both these points although I wouldn't take many from the Plumlees (maybe 23 for both). I do think Nolan will be close to 30, but I also see Seth closer to 25. That just about evens it out:

Kyle - 33
Nolan - 30
KI - 26
Mason - 23
Miles - 23
Seth - 25
Dre - 18
Ryan - 12
Josh - 9
TT - 1

[MisterRoddy]

This is also pretty reasonable, although based on history it would seem your minutes for Mason and Miles are probably a little high. If you take two or three of their minutes and give them to Andre and Ryan, you and I would be in synch on this. (Although I also might give a couple of Kyrie's minutes to Nolan.)

I can definitely agree with you there

here are my changes:

Kyrie: 26
Nolan: 30
Andre: 18
Miles: 22
Mason: 24
Ryan: 16

(original)

Kyrie: 28
Seth: 22
Thornton (2)
Nolan: 28
Kyle: 32
Andre: 16
Mason: 26
Ryan: 14
Josh: 8
Miles: 24

[Jeff Frosh]

kyrie-30
Nolan-30
Seth-30
Kyle-30
Plumlee-30
Dawkins-20
Plumlee-20
Kelly-10

I find it highly unlikely that Hairston and Thornton never see the court.

[Big Pappa]

Nice little article from Kevin Berger. Nothing new, but it is interesting that he says flat out that, "The Blue Devils actually are a much stronger team than last year’s championship squad after trading Jon Scheyer, Brian Zoubek, and Lance Thomas for Kyrie Irving, transfer sniper Seth Curry, and a more experienced and stronger pair of Plumlees."

http://fanpeeps.com/-7zQ8

[Bob Green]

kyrie-30
Nolan-30
Seth-30
Kyle-30
Plumlee-30
Dawkins-20
Plumlee-20
Kelly-10

Zero (0) minutes for Josh Hairston? Are you serious? Hairston is a freshman so we all have to wait and see how ready he is to play in the ACC, however, I will be shocked, shocked, if he plays less than the 6.5 mpg, which Ryan Kelly averaged as a freshman. Personally, my expectations for him are a little higher. Hairston was just named to the USA U18 National Team and will play against some strong competition June 26-30 in the FIBA Americas Championship. This invaluable experience will pay dividends once the season starts.

[Big Pappa]

An interesting article from Collegiate Hoops blogger DeAnte Mitchell about Seth starting instead of KI. I'm not saying I agree at all, but it is a scenario that no one has really brought up in this thread.

http://collegiatehoops.blogspot.com/

[MisterRoddy]

An interesting article from Collegiate Hoops blogger DeAnte Mitchell about Seth starting instead of KI. I'm not saying I agree at all, but it is a scenario that no one has really brought up in this thread.

http://collegiatehoops.blogspot.com/

No one has brought it up because barring an injury to Irving, it won't happen. While Seth has been impressing, Irving has been impressing also and there has been no sentiment that he will come off the bench. Everything signals that Irving will be one of the top point guards in college basketball.
Also, K said it himself that Irving being the point guard will dramatically transform the Blue Devils offense and that will be kind of hard to do with him coming off the bench. No knock on Seth but there is absolutely no way Kyrie comes off the bench unless he isn't as good as we all assume and that's highly unlikely.

IMO, there would be a better chance of Seth supplanting one of the Plumlees for their starting spot.

I don't understand why Seth can't get starters minutes (or close to) coming in as the 6th man. Theres nothing wrong with that and he can be just as lethal.

[hedevil]

Nice lttle read BP.

I don't know who the writer's talking about when he says that most people predict that Tyler will be coming off the bench to back Kyrie at the point. I predict that Tyler will mostly come in to run the point to close out runaway games, not too much else.

Kyrie was brought in to run the point from day one IMO. Duke's first #1 jersey, top point guard in the class, coming off the bench? Not likely.

One point where I do see eye to eye with the writer is that Curry is too good to come off the bench. If Irving starts (like most of us predict), and that statement about Curry proves true, that could only mean one thing. Like I said, things will filter themselves out by the second half of the season.

[SilkyJ]

kyrie-30
Nolan-30
Seth-30
Kyle-30
Plumlee-30
Dawkins-20
Plumlee-20
Kelly-10


Zero (0) minutes for Josh Hairston? Are you serious? Hairston is a freshman so we all have to wait and see how ready he is to play in the ACC, however, I will be shocked, shocked, if he plays less than the 6.5 mpg, which Ryan Kelly averaged as a freshman. Personally, my expectations for him are a little higher. Hairston was just named to the USA U18 National Team and will play against some strong competition June 26-30 in the FIBA Americas Championship. This invaluable experience will pay dividends once the season starts.

Yea, but Ryan also had 5 DNPs and basically all of his double digit minute games came in the 1st 3rd of the season against weaker opponents. He was mostly a spot duty/garbage time player during the meat of the season.

Josh might get 5-8mpg, but its not ridiculous to think he won't play in a few games and will mostly see spot duty when someone is in foul trouble, injurred, etc.

Since we're really talking about whose occupying the meat of the minutes, i.e. whose in the rotation. Speculating that Josh won't be a meaningful part of the rotation doesn't seem unreasonable to me, though it remains to be seen.

[Bob Green]

Speculating that Josh won't be a meaningful part of the rotation doesn't seem unreasonable to me, though it remains to be seen.

I agree it isn't unreasonable to speculate Hairston will not be a meaningful part of the rotation when the speculation is framed in the manner you posted. However, to post a breakdown of the 200 minute rotation and not list Hairston, or Thornton but that is a subject for a different post, is unreasonable.

Moreover, in support of my "shocked" response, I believe Hairston will arrive at Duke more physically ready to play than Ryan Kelly was as a freshman. It remains to be seen whether freshman Hairston or sophomore Kelly is better equipped to contribute in 2010-11.

[SilkyJ]

I agree it isn't unreasonable to speculate Hairston will not be a meaningful part of the rotation when the speculation is framed in the manner you posted. However, to post a breakdown of the 200 minute rotation and not list Hairston, or Thornton but that is a subject for a different post, is unreasonable.

Fair enough. I guess my point was that if we're posting a 200 minute rotation, it seems difficult to project down to the 5 minute level for lesser used players, i.e. adjusting Cockabeau's prediction to Kelly 8mpg, MP1 28mpg and MP2 19mpg, leaving 5mpg for Josh. I'd just as soon call it 10, 30 and 20 and leave Josh out of the equation as those 5 mpg aren't moving the needle for any real discussion.



Moreover, in support of my "shocked" response, I believe Hairston will arrive at Duke more physically ready to play than Ryan Kelly was as a freshman. It remains to be seen whether freshman Hairston or sophomore Kelly is better equipped to contribute in 2010-11.

Also totally fair and perhaps the crux of this discussion. I am assuming Kelly 2.0 will be ahead of Josh 1.0, but who knows.

[MisterRoddy]

I agree it isn't unreasonable to speculate Hairston will not be a meaningful part of the rotation when the speculation is framed in the manner you posted. However, to post a breakdown of the 200 minute rotation and not list Hairston, or Thornton but that is a subject for a different post, is unreasonable.

Moreover, in support of my "shocked" response, I believe Hairston will arrive at Duke more physically ready to play than Ryan Kelly was as a freshman. It remains to be seen whether freshman Hairston or sophomore Kelly is better equipped to contribute in 2010-11.

I agree with this post, and also I think Josh will be closer to the production of Mason last year than Ryan last year.

[_TheFakeJWill_]

for the record i thought Kelly played really well when he was on the court. He was one of if not the best player when it came to feeding the post. Got a number of blocks and has a beautiful stroke when he is confident. The only knock on him I have is that he is pretty slow w/o the ball and his D fence isnt that great.

[Osiagledknarf]

kyrie-30
Nolan-30
Seth-30
Kyle-30
Plumlee-30
Dawkins-20
Plumlee-20
Kelly-10

A few things here:

Where is Joshua Hairston on this list? He should be on this list somewhere. He is a PF who is ranked 19th overall prospect on ESPN.com in the 2010 class, has a 96 scouting grade, and is physically ready to come in and play in limited action which he will get next season. I don't know how many minutes he will get, but he will certainly get some, and is no pushover.

[MChambers]

One point where I do see eye to eye with the writer is that Curry is too good to come off the bench. If Irving starts (like most of us predict), and that statement about Curry proves true, that could only mean one thing. Like I said, things will filter themselves out by the second half of the season.
Isn't it possible that Curry will be too good to come off the bench, just like the sophomore Scheyer? He'll play as much as many of the starters, but won't start.

[Newton_14]

Rebounds, rebounds!

What so many people fail to understand when mentioning this rebounding argument is that Duke has lost rebounding battles more often than not over the years. Coach K himself was cracking jokes throughout the season about seeing the rebounding numbers and thinking they had been reversed with the opponents' team. Everyone seems to have fallen in love with last years' approach so much (which I understand, it worked), that it seems like we've forgotten that Duke is notorious for it's up and down style of play. We played big and lived off of rebounding last year, BECAUSE we had to due to personnel.


Yeah...about those rebounds. History shows otherwise. In select years where Duke won the National Title or made the FF, the rebounding margin was in Duke's favor, and even better than I expected to find. That data is in table 1. In table 2 is the data in years where Duke had good/great teams but fell short of the FF. Note that in those years the rebounding margins are either negative, or positive but not as positive as in table 1. Rebounding is very important and in the most successful years (not just this year) rebounding was very much key and in Duke's favor.

The idea that Duke has never been a good rebounding team other than this year is a myth. The years where Duke was truly not good in the rebounding dept however, is also in years where they fell short of the FF. Rebounds do matter.

Table 1- FF or won title

Season Off Def Total RPG Dif.
90-91-Duke 481 914 1394 35.7 2.3
90-91-Opp 520 785 1304 33.4

91-92-Duke 431 798 1229 34.1 2.7
91-92-Opp 472 659 1131 31.4

98-99-Duke 588 1056 1644 42.2 8.8
98-99-Opp 566 738 1304 33.4

00-01-Duke 538 967 1505 38.6 1.1
00-01-Opp 548 915 1463 37.5

03-04-Duke 488 862 1350 36.5 2.3
03-04-Opp 509 757 1266 34.2

09-10-Duke 582 978 1560 39 6.2
09-10-Opp 468 842 1310 32.8

Table 2- Good/Great Teams- Fell short of FF

Season Off Def Total RPG Dif.
92-93-Duke 399 756 1155 36.1 -0.1
92-93-Opp 473 687 1159 36.2

01-02-Duke 428 875 1303 37.2 1
01-02-Opp 461 815 1267 36.2

02-03-Duke 441 765 1206 36.5 1.5
02-03-OPP 406 749 1155 35

05-06-Duke 350 854 1204 33.4 -2.7
05-06-Opp 517 784 1301 36.1

07-08-Duke 426 829 1255 36.9 0.1
07-08-Opp 422 830 1252 36.8

08-09-Duke 490 858 1348 36.4 2.7
08-09-Opp 426 821 1247 33.7

[-bdbd]

I agree with this for the most part, but I have a few nitpicks. First, it's "Thornton" and I really don't see him getting many minutes at all. Second, I don't think Kelly will be the primary guy at the 5. IMO pretty much all of the time there will be at least one Plumlee or Hairston in the game and they will be playing the 5. My primary backups would look like this:

1 - Curry
2 - Curry, Dawkins
3 - Dawkins, Kelly
4 - Kelly, Hairston
5 - Hairston

I think that we are splitting hairs a bit here b/c there will clearly be a lot of time with three G's on the floor, and also much time with three bigs. I personally lean towards three G's more often, but only slightly, b/c that simply is where our greater talent lies. A lot will be determined by which combinations play best together. No doubt defensive matchups will dictate some as well.

To those fretting over the HB matchup in the Kerlina game, I have a couple responses:
1. Dawkins - he's a much better match-up size-wise than any of the other guards and will obviously get some time at the "3" this season.
2. Reverse matchup - just as a 6-4 guy might be at some disadvantage on the inside vs a 6-8 guy, that shorter guy would have some advantages too - namely greater speed, probably better outside shooting and stamina (is HB inclined to spend the whole game running and guarding 20' from the basket, and what does that do to UNC rebounding ability?).
3. Other guards can play him for shorter timeframes and use OUR advantages in those matchups as well.
4. Some zone.
5. Don't forget, MOST teams will have "3's" in the 6-3 to 6-6 height range, which a 6-4/6-3 Duke G can certainly defend.

I see us playing a lot of 3-guard line-ups and running bigger squads out of the gym. I am not convinced entirely that Kelly likes or can play the interior effectively - I hope that proves wrong, but didn't see it last year at all. Hairston is thin and just 6-8, so not a prime "interior" guy against beefier/taller ACC or other elite teams. Importanly watch for K to be careful w/ fouls and stamina for MP1 and MP2 - hence some more 3-guard line-ups.

Two starting line-ups depending...
PG- Irving
SG- Smith
SF- Curry/Singler
PF- Singler/MP
C- MP

But I agree with the commentary that our two best Centers have the same initials - MP. So when there's only one Plumlee on the floor, expect to see him at the "5".

Question: For those of you arguing for Singler at the "3" primarily, and Duke playing three "bigs" mostly, do you honestly believe Miles to be, relatively, more talented at his position than Curry is at his? I just see the combo power potential chemistry of playing Irving-Smith-Curry (or Dawkins) together as being just deadly, and really impossible for anyone to match up against.

As always, in K we trust. This will be a fun "chemistry experiment" to watch develop in October, Nov., Dec....



:rolleyes:

[Greg_Newton]

Question: For those of you arguing for Singler at the "3" primarily, and Duke playing three "bigs" mostly, do you honestly believe Miles to be, relatively, more talented at his position than Curry is at his

This is an important point - no, but we're not comparing them in a vacuum. If we had five Kyrie Irvings and five Miles Plumlees, would we start the five Kyries and bring the Mileses off the bench? No, because a great team needs balance - rebounding, finishing, screening, on-ball interior defense, intimidating help-side defense and physical, tough play are all things Miles brings to the table that, IMO, would help a foursome of Kyrie, Nolan, Kyle and Mason more than Curry's explosive but finesse guard skills.

So yes, Curry is better for his position in a vacuum, but (IMO) Miles is better for the team. I expect the 3-guard lineup to come at times when we are willing to risk some of the above attributes in favor of explosive offense and turnover-forcing defense (i.e. when we are behind, or are generally looking stagnant).


5. Don't forget, MOST teams will have "3's" in the 6-3 to 6-6 height range, which a 6-4/6-3 Duke G can certainly defend.

This isn't really true, as pointed out earlier in the thread. Many teams have 6'7-6'9 SFs (including the majority in the ACC, I believe). Also - it's generally weaker teams that have the smaller SFs. I don't think it's a good strategy to have a lineup that works well against most teams, but is at a disadvantage against the best.

As Booz's post helps illustrate, bigger/better rebounding teams are more consistent with more margin for error. We've got enough firepower, we just need to surround it with a balanced team.

[Kedsy]

To those fretting over the HB matchup in the Kerlina game, I have a couple responses:
1. Dawkins - he's a much better match-up size-wise than any of the other guards and will obviously get some time at the "3" this season.
2. Reverse matchup - just as a 6-4 guy might be at some disadvantage on the inside vs a 6-8 guy, that shorter guy would have some advantages too - namely greater speed, probably better outside shooting and stamina (is HB inclined to spend the whole game running and guarding 20' from the basket, and what does that do to UNC rebounding ability?).
3. Other guards can play him for shorter timeframes and use OUR advantages in those matchups as well.

Well, I don't think we should structure our team based on how we would defend one team, but if you want to talk about the Duke/UNC game take a gander at some of the comments on HB coming out of the Chris Paul camp. In the drills, HB was winning all the races, so thinking he's not fast or quick enough to stick with Duke's guards is probably a pipe dream. But more importantly is HB's advantage would not only be inside; the general experts' impression was that with HB's high release his outside shot is practically unguardable by a shorter player.

Kyle will defend him for pretty much the entire game.


4. Some zone.

Yeah, that's the answer. Let's abandon our entire defensive approach because Seth Curry is a better offensive player than Miles Plumlee.


5. Don't forget, MOST teams will have "3's" in the 6-3 to 6-6 height range, which a 6-4/6-3 Duke G can certainly defend.

Well, as other's have said, this is entirely false. In the ACC at least, something like 10 or 11 of the 12 teams will be playing small forwards in the 6'6" to 6'9" range.

Also, I don't know what 6'4"/6'3" players you're talking about. Andre seems to be a legit 6'4", but Kyrie (who most reports peg at 6'1" or 6'2") won't be guarding any "3"s next year and Nolan and Seth are 6'2" on tall days.


I see us playing a lot of 3-guard line-ups and running bigger squads out of the gym. I am not convinced entirely that Kelly likes or can play the interior effectively - I hope that proves wrong, but didn't see it last year at all. Hairston is thin and just 6-8, so not a prime "interior" guy against beefier/taller ACC or other elite teams. Importanly watch for K to be careful w/ fouls and stamina for MP1 and MP2 - hence some more 3-guard line-ups.

Josh is listed at 215/220, so he's beefier than many freshmen, and Ryan is supposedly working on bulking up this summer. Last year I thought Ryan defended better against taller players than against smaller, quicker ones. But more importantly, please remember that we're talking about where they play on defense, not offense. If Ryan and/or Josh can defend the other team's second tallest player then it doesn't matter where they play/like to play on offense.


Question: For those of you arguing for Singler at the "3" primarily, and Duke playing three "bigs" mostly, do you honestly believe Miles to be, relatively, more talented at his position than Curry is at his? I just see the combo power potential chemistry of playing Irving-Smith-Curry (or Dawkins) together as being just deadly, and really impossible for anyone to match up against.

I don't want to try to speak for everyone, but what I think the people advocating Kyle at the 3 (along with two bigger players) believe is that, e.g., Miles will be better at defending his natural position than Seth would be defending a guy 5 to 8 inches taller and 50 to 75 pounds heavier than he is. You're thinking about offense, but Duke's team next year will have plenty of offense no matter who the 5th starter is. What we should think about -- and what K primarily thinks about -- is defense. Defense is what's going to determine whether 2010-11 Duke is a really good team or a great one.

[Jderf]

Question: For those of you arguing for Singler at the "3" primarily, and Duke playing three "bigs" mostly, do you honestly believe Miles to be, relatively, more talented at his position than Curry is at his?

Just going to get my piece in here, too. The answer to this is no. I think most people here (with a few exceptions) would expect Seth to be better at shooting guard than Miles will be at center. But that's not what you're arguing. You're arguing that Seth will be better at small forward than Miles will be at center, and while that is maybe true on the offensive end, it simply and definitively isn't on defense.

[Cockabeau]

Josh hairston doesn't fill an immediate need. He is not strong enough to play in the post. He is not skilled enough to play ahead of Ryan Kelly.

[Cockabeau]

Jderf,

Not me. Duke went big last year because they had too. Seth will start and get big minutes.

[InSpades]

Just going to get my piece in here, too. The answer to this is no. I think most people here (with a few exceptions) would expect Seth to be better at shooting guard than Miles will be at center. But that's not what you're arguing. You're arguing that Seth will be better at small forward than Miles will be at center, and while that is maybe true on the offensive end, it simply and definitively isn't on defense.

Why would anyone be comparing Miles to Seth? Miles is going to play as many minutes as Miles is capable of playing and this will only impact the other bigs. The same could be said for Mason. The real question is whether Seth and Andre can demand enough playing time at the 3 to push Kyle to the 4 and take minutes away from Ryan and Josh. The deciding factor should be is whether Duke is better off playing Seth/Andre at the 3 or Ryan/Josh at the 4. Kyle's ability to play the 3 or the 4 (on offense and defense) gives Duke great flexibility in that respect.

We should have a minutes played picking contest. Everyone lists how many minutes they think each player will get. You get 1 point for every minute you are off for each player. Lowest score wins :).

[Jderf]

Jderf,
Not me. Duke went big last year because they had too. Seth will start and get big minutes.

Okay, I'm going to try and make sense of this. My point, as I saw it, was in response to a very specific statement by -bdbd, which I disagreed with. I made a few propositions.

I conceded that (a) Most people here (with a few exceptions) would expect Seth to be better at shooting guard than Miles will be at center (though Miles should still be a good center).

Then I pointed out that -bdbd is not actually arguing for (a), but actually needed to argue that (b) Seth will be a better small forward than Miles will be at center.

Then I posited that (c) Miles is better at center than Seth is at small forward.
There are many reasons to think (c) is true. Although Seth can probably score more as a small forward than Miles can as a center, Miles is still much more equipped to guard other centers than Seth is other small forwards, although this still seems to be a point of debate in the thread. This would make me think Miles gets the starting nod, sliding Mason and Kyle down in the lineup, and squeezing Seth out of his starting position, though he should still get "big minutes."
---------
Your response was made of three propositions:

(1) Not me.
Not sure what this is referring to, unless you are disagreeing with (a). That would not make sense though, since you would need to actually agree with it.

(2) Duke went big last year because they had to.
Not sure that I see how this is in any way related to my post except by being somewhat loosely linked to the topic of the thread that my post was in.

(3) Seth will start and get big minutes.
This is your argument, your conclusion, and your premise all in one. While I agree with the part about big minutes, I disagree with the part about starting - and I can't see what your point is here other than restating your position.

[Jderf]

Why would anyone be comparing Miles to Seth? Miles is going to play as many minutes as Miles is capable of playing and this will only impact the other bigs. The same could be said for Mason. The real question is whether Seth and Andre can demand enough playing time at the 3 to push Kyle to the 4 and take minutes away from Ryan and Josh. The deciding factor should be is whether Duke is better off playing Seth/Andre at the 3 or Ryan/Josh at the 4. Kyle's ability to play the 3 or the 4 (on offense and defense) gives Duke great flexibility in that respect.

We should have a minutes played picking contest. Everyone lists how many minutes they think each player will get. You get 1 point for every minute you are off for each player. Lowest score wins :).

Your right. It's really not a meaningful comparison. (And I really shouldn't have bothered with that last post.) I was just being way too nitpicky about a statement made before, where someone said Seth would be relatively better at his position than Miles would be at his own. My bad.

[-bdbd]

This is an important point - no, but we're not comparing them in a vacuum. If we had five Kyrie Irvings and five Miles Plumlees, would we start the five Kyries and bring the Mileses off the bench? No, because a great team needs balance - rebounding, finishing, screening, on-ball interior defense, intimidating help-side defense and physical, tough play are all things Miles brings to the table that, IMO, would help a foursome of Kyrie, Nolan, Kyle and Mason more than Curry's explosive but finesse guard skills.

So yes, Curry is better for his position in a vacuum, but (IMO) Miles is better for the team. I expect the 3-guard lineup to come at times when we are willing to risk some of the above attributes in favor of explosive offense and turnover-forcing defense (i.e. when we are behind, or are generally looking stagnant).

This isn't really true, as pointed out earlier in the thread. Many teams have 6'7-6'9 SFs (including the majority in the ACC, I believe). Also - it's generally weaker teams that have the smaller SFs. I don't think it's a good strategy to have a lineup that works well against most teams, but is at a disadvantage against the best.

As Booz's post helps illustrate, bigger/better rebounding teams are more consistent with more margin for error. We've got enough firepower, we just need to surround it with a balanced team.


Obviously there are limits to the "play the five best players" philosophy. But I have seen K quoted professing just that philosophy more than once... Maybe we should add the qualifier "...within reason." No doubt that there can be awkward matchups for us, but as K has pointed out in the past when we've had similar scenarios, there are ALSO AWKWARD MATCHUPS GOING THE OTHER WAY TOO. So the vacuum can't be just "does Curry/Dawkins have a significant disdavantage guarding bigger 3's," but rather we need to look at what is the net effect. (If the matchup is even more disadvantageous to the other teams than it is to us...then not so bad. And to pre-empt some responses, we need to look at the impact on the whole team, not just compare Curry/Dawkins vs Plumlee.) There are DIS-advantages that most 6'8" guys will have vs quick/outside shooting 6'3" guards... Per some of the earlier conversations, I was couting Dawkins as 6'4" or 6'5" and Smith and Curry in the 6''3" - 6'2" range.

As I said, we're talking matters of degree here anyway - no doubt BOTH line-ups will be seen frequently.

No time to look up every opponent, but the handful of opponents I pulled up would disagree with the assertion that "Many teams have 6'7-6'9 SFs (including the majority in the ACC, I believe)." Clearly some will have tall and interior oriented 3's, such as UNC, including a couple in the ACC, but certaily 6'9" or 6'8" SF's are NOT the norm in college. Do ANY of our Nov-Dec. matchups have such? (And even those with taller, interior-oriented starting 3's, generally spend significant time during games with shorter SF lineups - as players shift around when replacements start coming in.) And of course you can't just look at height only, as size, strength, style of play impact match-ups too.

I expect K to mix and match line-ups to maximum advantage, seeing which ones work best against each opponent, and in fact I think he really enjoys that aspect.

Lastly, I forget who made the argument re the value of Curry at the 3 vs at my supposed argument for him at the 2. But I NEVER said evaluating Curry at the 2 - I asked posters to compare the relative capabilities of MP at HIS position vs Curry at HIS (whatever that position ends up being). Not sure why everyone's fixated on just the height stats, as Curry/Ewing speed and shooting at the 3 will greatly disadvantage the bigger guys too. In te end, it is really how well the TEAM plays with Curry or Ewing in there vs having MP in there. I think there may be some surprises re how well these different combos mesh, ignite.

Hmmmm. Can't wait!!

:rolleyes:

[Bob Green]

I expect K to mix and match line-ups to maximum advantage, seeing which ones work best against each opponent, and in fact I think he really enjoys that aspect.

This is a statement everyone can agree with regardless of which side of the discussion they favor. This has turned into a very good thread so I hope it keeps its legs and goes forward.


Not sure why everyone's fixated on just the height stats, as Curry/Ewing speed and shooting at the 3 will greatly disadvantage the bigger guys too. In te end, it is really how well the TEAM plays with Curry or Ewing in there vs having MP in there. I think there may be some surprises re how well these different combos mesh, ignite.

When is Daniel coming back? :D We all know you meant Dawkins, but I couldn't pass up the opportunity to poke a little fun at you.

[SilkyJ]

Josh hairston doesn't fill an immediate need.

We don't exactly have a glut of forwards, though.


He is not strong enough to play in the post.

I'll bet you've never worked out with him or seen him in a gym lately, and so have no idea how strong he is and are just guessing.



He is not skilled enough to play ahead of Ryan Kelly.

Again you are speculating, but I am inclined to agree.

After your holiday, I thought you might return with a new attitude and try and actually add to the discussion instead of just authoritatively declaring things. You are not an authority on this board so its really a waste of time to simply declare that X, Y, Z are true and anyone who disagrees is wrong. Take some time to explain yourself, provide rationales and "show your work" so that people can understand what you are saying. Simply declaring things is unproductive.

For example, to support your first statement, you might say "I think Mason, Miles, Kelly and Singler provide more than an adequate amount of big bodies to comprise a solid big man rotation. As such, I see Josh getting squeezed out for minutes in the frontcourt." Choose your own style, but at least offer some thought behind your statements.

[NSDukeFan]

Yeah...about those rebounds. History shows otherwise. In select years where Duke won the National Title or made the FF, the rebounding margin was in Duke's favor, and even better than I expected to find. That data is in table 1. In table 2 is the data in years where Duke had good/great teams but fell short of the FF. Note that in those years the rebounding margins are either negative, or positive but not as positive as in table 1. Rebounding is very important and in the most successful years (not just this year) rebounding was very much key and in Duke's favor.

The idea that Duke has never been a good rebounding team other than this year is a myth. The years where Duke was truly not good in the rebounding dept however, is also in years where they fell short of the FF. Rebounds do matter.

Table 1- FF or won title

Season Off Def Total RPG Dif.
90-91-Duke 481 914 1394 35.7 2.3
90-91-Opp 520 785 1304 33.4

91-92-Duke 431 798 1229 34.1 2.7
91-92-Opp 472 659 1131 31.4

98-99-Duke 588 1056 1644 42.2 8.8
98-99-Opp 566 738 1304 33.4

00-01-Duke 538 967 1505 38.6 1.1
00-01-Opp 548 915 1463 37.5

03-04-Duke 488 862 1350 36.5 2.3
03-04-Opp 509 757 1266 34.2

09-10-Duke 582 978 1560 39 6.2
09-10-Opp 468 842 1310 32.8

Table 2- Good/Great Teams- Fell short of FF

Season Off Def Total RPG Dif.
92-93-Duke 399 756 1155 36.1 -0.1
92-93-Opp 473 687 1159 36.2

01-02-Duke 428 875 1303 37.2 1
01-02-Opp 461 815 1267 36.2

02-03-Duke 441 765 1206 36.5 1.5
02-03-OPP 406 749 1155 35

05-06-Duke 350 854 1204 33.4 -2.7
05-06-Opp 517 784 1301 36.1

07-08-Duke 426 829 1255 36.9 0.1
07-08-Opp 422 830 1252 36.8

08-09-Duke 490 858 1348 36.4 2.7
08-09-Opp 426 821 1247 33.7
Thanks for the effort you put into this. I think you can make a legitimate argument, as you have, to its significance. The greatest thing I notice, however, is what kind of outliers 98-99 and 09-10 were. Those are some great rebounding teams! Interesting charts for sure.


Question: For those of you arguing for Singler at the "3" primarily, and Duke playing three "bigs" mostly, do you honestly believe Miles to be, relatively, more talented at his position than Curry is at his? I just see the combo power potential chemistry of playing Irving-Smith-Curry (or Dawkins) together as being just deadly, and really impossible for anyone to match up against.

As always, in K we trust. This will be a fun "chemistry experiment" to watch develop in October, Nov., Dec....

:rolleyes:
As Bob said in commenting on your later post, there will be a lot of time for both lineups, as you have said. Others may have commented better than I will, but I would just add that I think Curry will be a better scorer than Miles, but I think Miles will make the team better defensively, and that is why I feel he will start and the team will go big, more often than small. Kedsy probably said this better than I did here.

...
Josh is listed at 215/220, so he's beefier than many freshmen, and Ryan is supposedly working on bulking up this summer. Last year I thought Ryan defended better against taller players than against smaller, quicker ones. But more importantly, please remember that we're talking about where they play on defense, not offense. If Ryan and/or Josh can defend the other team's second tallest player then it doesn't matter where they play/like to play on offense.

I don't want to try to speak for everyone, but what I think the people advocating Kyle at the 3 (along with two bigger players) believe is that, e.g., Miles will be better at defending his natural position than Seth would be defending a guy 5 to 8 inches taller and 50 to 75 pounds heavier than he is. You're thinking about offense, but Duke's team next year will have plenty of offense no matter who the 5th starter is. What we should think about -- and what K primarily thinks about -- is defense. Defense is what's going to determine whether 2010-11 Duke is a really good team or a great one.

I also expect Ryan to be defending inside and do not expect he will have any reluctance or hesitation to do so. I also thought he had some good moments defending the interior last year, more so than defending the perimeter. I hope and expect Ryan and Joshua will be solid enough defensively, that we will not have to rely on an undersized defensive lineup very often. Of course, we will see 3 guard (not including super perimeter player Kyle) line-ups for at least a few minutes in most, if not all, games next year. I think Kyle will be at the 3 most of the time and be the best wing in the country.

[ACCBBallFan]

Regarding the height and weight advantage discussion, that's really more a factor for PF/C than for SF. So question is what does moving Kyle to PF do relative to other PF's, not so much Seth or Nolan or Dre size disadvantage.

At SF the S is more important than the F and Seth and Dre are outstanding shooters.

http://aboverim.blogspot.com/2010/05/acc-projected-hoops-lineups-for-2010-11.html

The only correction to this article not really pertinent to this discussion is BC's center will again be Josh Southern as Evan Revenel recently transferred to Ohio St.

Regarding the conjuecture and generalities about SF being mostly 6'6" or mostly 6'9", here is it by ACC team for both the SF where Duke would be somewhat or more than somewhat undersized in 3 guard set and the PF metrics relative to Singler:

If the other guards Irving and Curry can adequately defend PG and SG, my guesss is Nolan for his experience and weight and best ball denial would be the SF defender

Among the centers Miles and Mason are only outsized by a couple and usually only by one or the other of height and weight, not both and not by much:

Tyler Zeller 7' 240, Tracy Smith 6'8" 247, Jordan Williams 6'10" 260' Reggie Johnson 6'10" 295, Josh Southern 6'10" 250, Brad Sheehan 7' 235.

So as you see below Singler is also rarely outsized and rebounding under the basket may not be the disadvantage many are surmising. The bigger teams will also struggle to guard Singler and a Plumlee, as will the ones not bigger.

You will also see that the SF's all bigger than Nolan, not many of them are shooting threats, and to the extent they stay outside to shoot a bad poercentage shot over Nolan, they are not under the basket to leverage their height advantage. To extent Nolan can use his quicks for ball denial, height is moot.

Few SF's can guard Nolan or Seth.

None of the PF/C duos have enough double perimeter threat to pull both Kyle and a Plumlee away from paint to post up Nolan.

Duke - Nolan Smith 6' 2.5" 185 and Kyle Singler 6'8" 230 or Mason Plumlee 6'10 230

VA Tech - Terrell Bell 6' 6" 205 and Jeff Allen 6'7" 230

FSU - Michael Snaer 6'5" 200 and Chris Singleton 6'9" 227

UNC - Harrison Barnes 6'8" 209 and John Henson 6'10" 195 plus whatever weight gain he has had, maybe tipping the scales at 205

NC St - C J Leslie 6'9" 205 or Scott Wood 6'7" 170 and Richard Howell 6'8" 266

Maryalnd - Cliff Tucker 6'6" 205 and Dino Gregory 6'7" 230

Miami - Dequan Jones 6'6" 219 and Juian Gamble 6'9" 255

Clemson - Milton Jennings 6'9" 225 and Devin Booker 6'8" 235

BC - Cori Raji 6'6" 218 and Joe Trapani 6'8" 228

GA Tech - Glen Rice Jr 6'45" 195 and Kammeron Holsey 6'8" 195 + weight gained during red shirt

UVA - K T Terrell 6'4" 200 and Mike Scott 6'8" 239

Wake - Ari Stewart 6'7" 205 and Tony Woods 6'1" 245

So for several teams across the SF and PF the PF is the better player and Duke would want to assign its best big defender Singler to them anyway with Nolan on the lesser threat: Jeff Allen, Chris Singleton, Joe Trapani, Mike Scott

In the ACC the only exceptions would be UNC where Singler would muscle Barnes and Mason Plumlee would toss Henson around and NC State where a bigger lienup may be needed to content with Leslie and Howell when Wood is not in the game.

I still think Duke plays Singler 15-20 MPG at WF and only 10-15 MPG at PF, total about 20 MPG, but either can be effective.

It will be important to play enough of two Plumlees or Plumlee and Kelly with Singler to prepare for bigger NCAA tourney opponents.

[ACCBBallFan]

15 min time limit expired before I could correct the typo from total 20 MPG to 30 MPG for Kyle.

[Cockabeau]

KI
Curry
Nolan
Plumlee
Singler

Your starting lineup next year. We will be tough to beat. Raining threes,pressure d, penetration....and we are deep.

[NSDukeFan]

Regarding the height and weight advantage discussion, that's really more a factor for PF/C than for SF. So question is what does moving Kyle to PF do relative to other PF's, not so much Seth or Nolan or Dre size disadvantage.

At SF the S is more important than the F and Seth and Dre are outstanding shooters.

http://aboverim.blogspot.com/2010/05/acc-projected-hoops-lineups-for-2010-11.html

The only correction to this article not really pertinent to this discussion is BC's center will again be Josh Southern as Evan Revenel recently transferred to Ohio St.

Regarding the conjuecture and generalities about SF being mostly 6'6" or mostly 6'9", here is it by ACC team for both the SF where Duke would be somewhat or more than somewhat undersized in 3 guard set and the PF metrics relative to Singler:

If the other guards Irving and Curry can adequately defend PG and SG, my guesss is Nolan for his experience and weight and best ball denial would be the SF defender

Among the centers Miles and Mason are only outsized by a couple and usually only by one or the other of height and weight, not both and not by much:

Tyler Zeller 7' 240, Tracy Smith 6'8" 247, Jordan Williams 6'10" 260' Reggie Johnson 6'10" 295, Josh Southern 6'10" 250, Brad Sheehan 7' 235.

So as you see below Singler is also rarely outsized and rebounding under the basket may not be the disadvantage many are surmising. The bigger teams will also struggle to guard Singler and a Plumlee, as will the ones not bigger.

You will also see that the SF's all bigger than Nolan, not many of them are shooting threats, and to the extent they stay outside to shoot a bad poercentage shot over Nolan, they are not under the basket to leverage their height advantage. To extent Nolan can use his quicks for ball denial, height is moot.

Few SF's can guard Nolan or Seth.

None of the PF/C duos have enough double perimeter threat to pull both Kyle and a Plumlee away from paint to post up Nolan.

Duke - Nolan Smith 6' 2.5" 185 and Kyle Singler 6'8" 230 or Mason Plumlee 6'10 230

VA Tech - Terrell Bell 6' 6" 205 and Jeff Allen 6'7" 230

FSU - Michael Snaer 6'5" 200 and Chris Singleton 6'9" 227

UNC - Harrison Barnes 6'8" 209 and John Henson 6'10" 195 plus whatever weight gain he has had, maybe tipping the scales at 205

NC St - C J Leslie 6'9" 205 or Scott Wood 6'7" 170 and Richard Howell 6'8" 266

Maryalnd - Cliff Tucker 6'6" 205 and Dino Gregory 6'7" 230

Miami - Dequan Jones 6'6" 219 and Juian Gamble 6'9" 255

Clemson - Milton Jennings 6'9" 225 and Devin Booker 6'8" 235

BC - Cori Raji 6'6" 218 and Joe Trapani 6'8" 228

GA Tech - Glen Rice Jr 6'45" 195 and Kammeron Holsey 6'8" 195 + weight gained during red shirt

UVA - K T Terrell 6'4" 200 and Mike Scott 6'8" 239

Wake - Ari Stewart 6'7" 205 and Tony Woods 6'1" 245

So for several teams across the SF and PF the PF is the better player and Duke would want to assign its best big defender Singler to them anyway with Nolan on the lesser threat: Jeff Allen, Chris Singleton, Joe Trapani, Mike Scott

In the ACC the only exceptions would be UNC where Singler would muscle Barnes and Mason Plumlee would toss Henson around and NC State where a bigger lienup may be needed to content with Leslie and Howell when Wood is not in the game.

I still think Duke plays Singler 15-20 MPG at WF and only 10-15 MPG at PF, total about 20 MPG, but either can be effective.

It will be important to play enough of two Plumlees or Plumlee and Kelly with Singler to prepare for bigger NCAA tourney opponents.

Thank you for your analysis and you make a good point that it is more important to have some size at the 4 or PF position than the 3 or SF. Even so, I have no problem with Kyle guarding an opponent's PF in any of the situations above as I think he is a good enough defender that it wouldn't be a problem.

Even though most 3s or SFs play on the perimeter, I still think it would be more of a potential problem with Nolan having to guard Stewart, Jennings, Leslie or Wood, or Barnes for long periods. All of them are at least 4&1/2 inches taller than Nolan, which is pretty significant in post up or rebounding situations or even to shoot over on the perimeter. I don't think any of them could keep Nolan in front of them, so there would be an offensive advantage to go along with a potential defensive issue. I think Nolan could probably guard these players for short amounts of time, or extended periods if the team does not try to exploit the match up, and expect he will, but don't know if these would be the best match ups defensively for the majority of the game.
It will be fun to find out.

[Jeff Frosh]

KI
Curry
Nolan
Plumlee
Singler

Your starting lineup next year. We will be tough to beat. Raining threes,pressure d, penetration....and we are deep.

I think you have finally done it. You now have the record for posting the same thing the most times. Maybe if you do it a few more times, Coach K will finally see it and change his mind on his starting lineup.

[MisterRoddy]

I think you have finally done it. You now have the record for posting the same thing the most times. Maybe if you do it a few more times, Coach K will finally see it and change his mind on his starting lineup.


At this point, I think Cockabeau is convinced he is Coach K with his confident (but erroneous) declarations.

[toooskies]

Keep in mind that all those years we had small rebounding advantages (~2 or so), we mostly maintained that advantage against under-sized non-conference teams while drawing even (or worse) in most conference games. A +2 margin would put Duke in the bottom half of the ACC this year, and I think only NC State was below 0. Duke would've been a below-average rebounding team except for last year and '99.

What I don't understand is why people plan on KI, NS, SC, and KS on the floor all at the same time. It seems to me that we can get them all 30 minutes a game (on average) filling the three guard spots instead of spilling over to PF and C, which to me seems reasonable in an up-tempo offense. A team as loaded with talent as Duke is, doesn't need to play anyone more than 30 MPG-- see UNC 2009.

[MisterRoddy]

Keep in mind that all those years we had small rebounding advantages (~2 or so), we mostly maintained that advantage against under-sized non-conference teams while drawing even (or worse) in most conference games. A +2 margin would put Duke in the bottom half of the ACC this year, and I think only NC State was below 0. Duke would've been a below-average rebounding team except for last year and '99.

What I don't understand is why people plan on KI, NS, SC, and KS on the floor all at the same time. It seems to me that we can get them all 30 minutes a game (on average) filling the three guard spots instead of spilling over to PF and C, which to me seems reasonable in an up-tempo offense. A team as loaded with talent as Duke is, doesn't need to play anyone more than 30 MPG-- see UNC 2009.

Well the reason why you don't understand is probably because you are forgetting Andre Dawkins who most likely will warrant solid playing time. You add in Andre, and all of a sudden not all of our guards can get 30 mins/game filling in the 1-3 spots.

[Dukeface88]

Well the reason why you don't understand is probably because you are forgetting Andre Dawkins who most likely will warrant solid playing time. You add in Andre, and all of a sudden not all of our guards can get 30 mins/game filling in the 1-3 spots.

Of course, they could go NS 30, KI 25, SC 25, KS 25 (+5 at the 4) and still leave minutes for Dre. That's about what I'd guess for next season. Maybe another 5 minutes for KS at the 4 depending on the development of our post players.

[MisterRoddy]

Of course, they could go NS 30, KI 25, SC 25, KS 25 (+5 at the 4) and still leave minutes for Dre. That's about what I'd guess for next season. Maybe another 5 minutes for KS at the 4 depending on the development of our post players.


That's still not 30 min/game for those 4 guards, just Nolan. Sorry if Im being nit picky but what you have is pretty much what I also think happen.

[ACCBBallFan]

as I said in a separate thread

http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?t=21604

I originally thought playing three 6'2" guys simultaneously was limited to very specialized situations.

When I look at all the ACC SF's though, it is feasible. I still put more confidence in what Jim Sumner is saying.

Perhaps a blend of both. I would think coach K may use it some agaisnt the better PF's:

Joe Trapani with Nolan guarding Corey Raji,
Jeff Allen with Nolan guarding J T Thompson or Terrell Bell;
Chris Singleton with Nolan guarding Michael Snaer
Mike Scott with Nolan guarding whoever UVA plays at WF be that farrakan or rookie Harrell

But as pointed out, Kyle would have to play SF versus bigger teams

Barnes-Henson-Zeller

CJ Leslie- Howell - Tracy Smith

Mion Jennings - Devin Booker - Jerai Grant

Dequan Jones - Julian Gamble - Reggie Johnson

When Scott Wood subs in, he is only 170 pounds. So could use either Nolan or Kyle to guard him.

Would probably use the big lineup vs the others but either or a combination would work

Cliff Tucker - Dina Gregory - Jordan Williams

Ari Stewart - Tony Woods - Ty Walker or Carson Desrosiers

Glen Rice Jr. - Kammeron Holsey - Brad Sheehan

So good to be able to put best defender Singler on PF's Jeff Allen, Joe Trapani, Chris Singleton and Mike Scott. Possible to do that with big lineup if Mason plumlee can defend the SF's Raji, Snaer, J T Thompson or Terrell Bell, Farrakan or Herrell, better than Andre Dawkins or Nolan Smith

So it's like having 6 starters and figuring out when to pull Curry and when to pull Miles or Mason

Irving-Curry-Smith-Singler-Mason-Miles

Playing Kyle at SF would free up more PT for Kelly and Hairston while playing Kyle at PF would free up more PT for Dawkins and Thornton. So somehting to be said for doing half of each.

[Newton_14]

as I said in a separate thread

http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?t=21604

I originally thought playing three 6'2" guys simultaneously was limited to very specialized situations.

When I look at all the ACC SF's though, it is feasible. I still put more confidence in what Jim Sumner is saying.

Perhaps a blend of both. I would think coach K may use it some agaisnt the better PF's:

Joe Trapani with Nolan guarding Corey Raji,
Jeff Allen with Nolan guarding J T Thompson or Terrell Bell;
Chris Singleton with Nolan guarding Michael Snaer
Mike Scott with Nolan guarding whoever UVA plays at WF be that farrakan or rookie Harrell

But as pointed out, Kyle would have to play SF versus bigger teams

Barnes-Henson-Zeller

CJ Leslie- Howell - Tracy Smith

Mion Jennings - Devin Booker - Jerai Grant

Dequan Jones - Julian Gamble - Reggie Johnson

When Scott Wood subs in, he is only 170 pounds. So could use either Nolan or Kyle to guard him.

Would probably use the big lineup vs the others but either or a combination would work

Cliff Tucker - Dina Gregory - Jordan Williams

Ari Stewart - Tony Woods - Ty Walker or Carson Desrosiers

Glen Rice Jr. - Kammeron Holsey - Brad Sheehan

So good to be able to put best defender Singler on PF's Jeff Allen, Joe Trapani, Chris Singleton and Mike Scott. Possible to do that with big lineup if Mason plumlee can defend the SF's Raji, Snaer, J T Thompson or Terrell Bell, Farrakan or Herrell, better than Andre Dawkins or Nolan Smith

So it's like having 6 starters and figuring out when to pull Curry and when to pull Miles or Mason

Irving-Curry-Smith-Singler-Mason-Miles

Playing Kyle at SF would free up more PT for Kelly and Hairston while playing Kyle at PF would free up more PT for Dawkins and Thornton. So somehting to be said for doing half of each.

I agree with you regarding the mix. No doubt K will use multiple options in various situations and 3 guard line ups with either Andre or Seth will be used.

I also agree with the 6 starters logic. Even though I lean to the big line up I do agree Seth will get starter type minutes ala Jon his soph year. And like you, I place a lot of value in the opinion's of Mr. Sumner and I saw him state his opinion on this discussion some time ago. I have factored that into my stance since this topic started getting debated.

I just see Mason, Miles, and Ryan improving to the point where they demand minutes, and I have a funny feeling that Josh is going to be a pleasant surprise and end up being better than advertised.

[_TheFakeJWill_]

Has anyone actually gave any thought that K might change the lineups due to match up problems???
Smaller/quicker teams:
Kyrie
Seth
Nolan
Kyle
Mason

Larger/slower teams:
Kyrie
Nolan
Kyle
Mason
Miles

And isnt it a beautiful problem to have with the whole "which lineup is better" :D

[Waynne]

Has anyone actually gave any thought that K might change the lineups due to match up problems???
Smaller/quicker teams:
Kyrie
Seth
Nolan
Kyle
Mason

Larger/slower teams:
Kyrie
Nolan
Kyle
Mason
Miles

And isnt it a beautiful problem to have with the whole "which lineup is better" :D

We are very fortunate to be having this conversation. There are a whole lot of programs in the country that would love to have this "problem".

[chadlee989]

Maybe a better question (closer vote) would be who gets more min. Seth vs the Plumees.

[Jderf]

Maybe a better question (closer vote) would be who gets more min. Seth vs the Plumees.

Not so sure, since both parties (both those who think K will go big and those who think he'll go small) seem to think that Seth will be seeing the court a lot.

[Newton_14]

Has anyone actually gave any thought that K might change the lineups due to match up problems???
Smaller/quicker teams:
Kyrie
Seth
Nolan
Kyle
Mason

Larger/slower teams:
Kyrie
Nolan
Kyle
Mason
Miles

And isnt it a beautiful problem to have with the whole "which lineup is better" :D

Yes, agree, for sure K will use the many options he has including what you mention above. The thing is though, most of us on the "big" side of the argument, do not see our big line up as "slow". Far from it. The Plumlee's were born to run in a high octane offense. Somewhere along the way folks (not saying you, just people in general) starting equating big with slow and I do not believe that to be the case at all. We can play a very fast pace with 2 bigs on the floor. unc has done that for years in roy;s system.

[PhillyDuke]

Y'all got it wrong, Seth and the Plumlees are not going to compete for playing time. Seth's minutes will come from the backcourt. Duke's best "five" is

Kyrie Irving
Seth Curry
Kyle Singler
Mason Plumlee
Mile Plumlee

That's the best lineup; take that too the bank!!!

[Jderf]

Y'all got it wrong, Seth and the Plumlees are not going to compete for playing time. Seth's minutes will come from the backcourt. Duke's best "five" is

Kyrie Irving
Seth Curry
Kyle Singler
Mason Plumlee
Mile Plumlee

That's the best lineup; take that too the bank!!!

I'm sorry, but there is simply no way that K does not start a healthy Nolan Smith - a senior, premier lockdown ACC defender, 17 ppg scorer, versatile, quick, and a good-passer/creator for others. He is one of the sure bets to start. Seth Curry could be a dynamite scorer and a great defender (which all indications seem to suggest he is), but he can't yet have the experience, versatility, and savvy of Nolan.

[PhillyDuke]

We all thought the same thing two years before Coach K benched Nolan and Greg Paulus for Elliott Williams. I believe that Coach K will be FORCED to do it again next season with Seth Curry because in head-to-head competition, he is a better basketball player than Nolan. Somebody in the backcourt is going to be relegated to the the bench--either Nolan or Kyrie Irving. My bet is that Kyrie starts.

Curry is already on record this summer saying he's trying to earn a starting job. The only way this does not happen is if the Duke coaching staff gets into Seth's ear and convinces him to "take one for the team" and forfeit starting.

I repeat, do not to sleep on Dawkins. If he comes back aggressive and brings his above the rim game to go along with his shooting touch, he's going to play major minutes.

[MisterRoddy]

We all thought the same thing two years before Coach K benched Nolan and Greg Paulus for Elliott Williams. I believe that Coach K will be FORCED to do it again next season with Seth Curry because in head-to-head competition, he is a better basketball player than Nolan. Somebody in the backcourt is going to be relegated to the the bench--either Nolan or Kyrie Irving. My bet is that Kyrie starts.

Curry is already on record this summer saying he's trying to earn a starting job. The only way this does not happen is if the Duke coaching staff gets into Seth's ear and convinces him to "take one for the team" and forfeit starting.

I repeat, do not to sleep on Dawkins. If he comes back aggressive and brings his above the rim game to go along with his shooting touch, he's going to play major minutes.

I think you are selling Nolan a bit short...

He's a senior team captain that will give you a good 17.5+ a night. Read my words, Nolan will NOT get benched. Seth will be one of the best 6th Men in the NCAA, I will give you that.

[Dukeface88]

We all thought the same thing two years before Coach K benched Nolan and Greg Paulus for Elliott Williams.

Not comparable. Nolan and Greg were clearly stuggling that year. Nolan last year was the best 2 guard in the ACC. Next year he could very well be the best in the country; E'Twaun Moore and LaceDarius Dunn are the only returning SGs that are on the same level.


I believe that Coach K will be FORCED to do it again next season with Seth Curry because in head-to-head competition, he is a better basketball player than Nolan.

Because you say so? Seth is known mostly for his shooting skills, but Nolan is actually more efficient. Nolan's also a lockdown defender (we know relatively little about Curry's defense), and an excellent distributor - he wasn't second on the team in assists and A/TOs by accident.


Somebody in the backcourt is going to be relegated to the the bench--either Nolan or Kyrie Irving. My bet is that Kyrie starts.

Yay for false dilemas!


Curry is already on record this summer saying he's trying to earn a starting job.

Good, he should try. It will push himself and Nolan. Trying to earn a starting spot, and actually earning a starting spot are two different things though.


The only way this does not happen is if the Duke coaching staff gets into Seth's ear and convinces him to "take one for the team" and forfeit starting.

Or Nolan beats him. Which is what will most likely happen.

[ElSid]

Comparing Paulus not starting his senior year to Nolan potentially not starting next year is wrongheaded. The two situations couldn't be much more different.

No way a senior captain who has championship experience and who dropped 28 in an Elite 8 game doesn't start. The guy who shut down every team's best guard on a regular basis. The guy who is the most vocal leader on the team.

He will start. No matter how good Seth Curry is. And provided that Nolan doesn't struggle, he will start the entire season. I can't really see him struggling, considering his improvement from Soph to Jr year and the well-documented level of effort he's putting in this summer.

I hope Coach K has his abacus out, counting, planning how all these minutes are going to flow. But, I'd bet the farm on Nolan being a starter all year in '10/'11. You can't overvalue the experience and leadership he brings. Nolan's high school coach Steve Smith called him the best leader he's coached...and that guy's seen a lot of legit players pass through.

What's great about that, too, is that Nolan is a good enough guy...Curry will be happy taking his shot and then letting Nolan do his thing leading that team. From what I know of the personalities, they should be able to gel.

[MisterRoddy]

Comparing Paulus not starting his senior year to Nolan potentially not starting next year is wrongheaded. The two situations couldn't be much more different.

No way a senior captain who has championship experience and who dropped 28 in an Elite 8 game doesn't start. The guy who shut down every team's best guard on a regular basis. The guy who is the most vocal leader on the team.

He will start. No matter how good Seth Curry is. And provided that Nolan doesn't struggle, he will start the entire season. I can't really see him struggling, considering his improvement from Soph to Jr year and the well-documented level of effort he's putting in this summer.

I hope Coach K has his abacus out, counting, planning how all these minutes are going to flow. But, I'd bet the farm on Nolan being a starter all year in '10/'11. You can't overvalue the experience and leadership he brings. Nolan's high school coach Steve Smith called him the best leader he's coached...and that guy's seen a lot of legit players pass through.

What's great about that, too, is that Nolan is a good enough guy...Curry will be happy taking his shot and then letting Nolan do his thing leading that team. From what I know of the personalities, they should be able to gel.

Agreed, and what I think is also great about.having a senior leader who just happens to be a great player and overall person at that, is that he can mentor
kyrie and Seth and take them under his wing a bit, especially Seth. I see similarities in his and Nolans games from what I've seen, both combo guards that can drive, both 6'2, both have a great stroke (Seths is obviously better). I can't wait to see these guards mesh on and off the court next year. It should be fun.

[Bob Green]

Somebody in the backcourt is going to be relegated to the the bench--either Nolan or Kyrie Irving. My bet is that Kyrie starts.


No way a senior captain who has championship experience and who dropped 28 in an Elite 8 game doesn't start. The guy who shut down every team's best guard on a regular basis. The guy who is the most vocal leader on the team.

I'm glad I read the rest of the thread before responding to PhillyDuke as ElSid "hit the nail on the head" with his response. Nolan Smith is a senior, a team captain, and coming off of a monster junior season where he more than doubled his points per game average from his sophomore season (8.4 to 17.4). I have to believe he will start every game next season as long as he is healthy.

Seth Curry will play minutes comparable to the starters and has the potential to be the best 6th Man in the nation. Our back court is deep and talented.

[NSDukeFan]

Agreed, and what I think is also great about.having a senior leader who just happens to be a great player and overall person at that, is that he can mentor
kyrie and Seth and take them under his wing a bit, especially Seth. I see similarities in his and Nolans games from what I've seen, both combo guards that can drive, both 6'2, both have a great stroke (Seths is obviously better). I can't wait to see these guards mesh on and off the court next year. It should be fun.

I agree with your post and your basic premise, but just to be nit-picky, I will disagree with the bolded part. I really like Nolan's shot. It seems like he doesn't have a lot of wasted movement, gets it off quickly and shot almost 40% from 3 point land last year. I will hesitate to say Curry's stroke is obviously better until he at least hits a few for Duke this year.

I hope and expect Curry to have a great impact on the team next year, be a sixth starter (that's where Lance started last year), play about the same number of minutes as Miles and Mason. No matter how well he plays next year, he will not be starting ahead of Nolan, unless there are injury issues. There is a much greater likelihood, imo, of Duke playing small with Nolan, Kyrie and Seth, than any situation that does not include a pre-season AA (I assume he will make somebody's if not most people's lists) Nolan starting.

[Big Pappa]

I agree with your post and your basic premise, but just to be nit-picky, I will disagree with the bolded part. I really like Nolan's shot. It seems like he doesn't have a lot of wasted movement, gets it off quickly and shot almost 40% from 3 point land last year. I will hesitate to say Curry's stroke is obviously better until he at least hits a few for Duke this year.


I really like Nolan's shot as well, but I don't think it's much of an argument to say it's better (or even as good as) Seth's. In three years, Nolan is a combined 109-288 from deep. In one year at Liberty, Seth went 102-294, and that was with no one else on the team that could score. Nolan had Jon and Kyle on the perimeter with him who were both considered better outside shooters.

I don't think Seth has a chance of starting over Nolan for all the reasons that have been named, but it is perfectly acceptable and correct to say that Seth has the better stroke from deep.

[COYS]

Maybe a better question (closer vote) would be who gets more min. Seth vs the Plumees.

I think it's likely that Seth will play more minutes than any one Plumlee if only because big men generally average fewer minutes than guards. I think Duke will be in serious trouble, though, if Seth gets more minutes than the Plumlees combined . . . that is unless Josh or Ryan come out of nowhere to have lottery pick worthy seasons and steal minutes.

[Kedsy]

We all thought the same thing two years before Coach K benched Nolan and Greg Paulus for Elliott Williams. I believe that Coach K will be FORCED to do it again next season with Seth Curry because in head-to-head competition, he is a better basketball player than Nolan.

And you've decided Seth is better than Nolan from your hours and hours of watching their "head-to-head competition"? Have you ever even seen Seth play in person?

[Dukeface88]

I really like Nolan's shot as well, but I don't think it's much of an argument to say it's better (or even as good as) Seth's. In three years, Nolan is a combined 109-288 from deep. In one year at Liberty, Seth went 102-294, and that was with no one else on the team that could score. Nolan had Jon and Kyle on the perimeter with him who were both considered better outside shooters.

I don't think Seth has a chance of starting over Nolan for all the reasons that have been named, but it is perfectly acceptable and correct to say that Seth has the better stroke from deep.

IMO, Nolan's stats from last year are more relevant than his career totals in projecting his stats next season. During that time he was .441 from the field and .378 from the 3 vs. Curry's .417 and .347.

[Kedsy]

IMO, Nolan's stats from last year are more relevant than his career totals in projecting his stats next season. During that time he was .441 from the field and .378 from the 3 vs. Curry's .417 and .347.

While I agree that Nolan's stats last year are more relevant. I'm not sure how relevant Seth's freshman year at Liberty stats are. With Kyrie and Kyle and maybe Nolan on the floor, along with one or two Plumlees, Seth not only won't be double- or triple-teamed the way he was at Liberty but he could find himself wide open at times, or at worst guarded by the opponent's third or fourth best defender. And don't forget that he was a freshman then and now he's sort of a junior (or maybe a sophomore and a half). He'll be hitting a lot of shots.

That said, so will Nolan (and so will Kyrie and so will Andre and so will Kyle). We'll have a lot of offense next year.

[coot]

There is no way Nolan Smith will be on the bench. He is the first #2 guard regardless.

You will see K use variations and change throughout the game. He will just stick with what is working. Seth might be working out one game and Miles won't play as much, because small is working. It depends on flow of the game, it's not a science that you can deliberately put together before games are played. This team has so much talent and so many options, that this is a great hypothetical debate, but in reality...K will go with the flow of what is working.

Having said that, most ideas here will work. All but the one where Nolan is coming off the bench. He won't come off the bench except for after he has just taken a rest. Nolan is no where close to being in the unfortunate position that Greg Paulas got into as a senior (I love GP and only trying to illuminate the point, not put GP down...he's one of my favorites ever).

Coot

[NSDukeFan]

I really like Nolan's shot as well, but I don't think it's much of an argument to say it's better (or even as good as) Seth's. In three years, Nolan is a combined 109-288 from deep. In one year at Liberty, Seth went 102-294, and that was with no one else on the team that could score. Nolan had Jon and Kyle on the perimeter with him who were both considered better outside shooters.

I don't think Seth has a chance of starting over Nolan for all the reasons that have been named, but it is perfectly acceptable and correct to say that Seth has the better stroke from deep.

I thought the numbers you used reinforced my position quite well, that it is not obvious that Seth has a better stroke than Nolan. The numbers you quoted show Nolan shooting a better percentage. You could say that he did have the other options that Nolan had on his team. Another argument might be that he played far inferior opponents.

I realize Seth is a very good shooter, I just am not ready to say that he is obviously a better shooter than Nolan, when I know Nolan can shoot a very high percentage and get his shot off effectively against one of the top 10 schedules in the country last year. Seth hasn't shown me that he is obviously a better shooter than that yet.

[MisterRoddy]

I thought the numbers you used reinforced my position quite well, that it is not obvious that Seth has a better stroke than Nolan. The numbers you quoted show Nolan shooting a better percentage. You could say that he did have the other options that Nolan had on his team. Another argument might be that he played far inferior opponents.

I realize Seth is a very good shooter, I just am not ready to say that he is obviously a better shooter than Nolan, when I know Nolan can shoot a very high percentage and get his shot off effectively against one of the top 10 schedules in the country last year. Seth hasn't shown me that he is obviously a better shooter than that yet.

I believe Big Pappa was trying to show that Seth almost hit as many threes in his freshman year than Nolan did in his first three years. Even if it was for a slightly lower percentage, that is still impressive. While I agree that it probably is a little early to say Seths shot is obviously better, I believe this next year we will find out that Seths stroke is the best on the team (although Andre could definitely give him a run for his money).

[NSDukeFan]

I believe Big Pappa was trying to show that Seth almost hit as many threes in his freshman year than Nolan did in his first three years. Even if it was for a slightly lower percentage, that is still impressive. While I agree that it probably is a little early to say Seths shot is obviously better, I believe this next year we will find out that Seths stroke is the best on the team (although Andre could definitely give him a run for his money).

I am looking forward to Seth showing his impressive shooting abilities this year. I hope we can keep arguing all year about who the best shooter is, who the best dunker is, who is the smartest defender, who sees the court the best, who is MOTM when everyone is making great contributions to the team's victories, etc.
When does the season start?

[Big Pappa]

I thought the numbers you used reinforced my position quite well, that it is not obvious that Seth has a better stroke than Nolan. The numbers you quoted show Nolan shooting a better percentage. You could say that he did have the other options that Nolan had on his team. Another argument might be that he played far inferior opponents.

I realize Seth is a very good shooter, I just am not ready to say that he is obviously a better shooter than Nolan, when I know Nolan can shoot a very high percentage and get his shot off effectively against one of the top 10 schedules in the country last year. Seth hasn't shown me that he is obviously a better shooter than that yet.


I believe Big Pappa was trying to show that Seth almost hit as many threes in his freshman year than Nolan did in his first three years. Even if it was for a slightly lower percentage, that is still impressive.

Exactly. That makes a huge difference. He hit the same number in one year while being double-teamed that Nolan did having the 3rd or 4th best defender on him.

[MarkD83]

I love these arguements about the quality of Duke's guards. Its analogous to...
"I think the Porsche has better acceleration than the Ferrari."

[Cockabeau]

The two biggest x-factors in college basketball is 3-point shooting and defense. I don't know why the predominant thought is that because the Z/LT formula worked it will work for this team. It took three years for both LT and Z to become effective as a tandem both on offense and defense. I expect that Plumlee/Plumlee/Singler will play alot but not at the expense of what a smaller team brings...I still remember alot of rotation problems on defense when both the Plumlees played together.

[Newton_14]

The two biggest x-factors in college basketball is 3-point shooting and defense. I don't know why the predominant thought is that because the Z/LT formula worked it will work for this team. It took three years for both LT and Z to become effective as a tandem both on offense and defense. I expect that Plumlee/Plumlee/Singler will play alot but not at the expense of what a smaller team brings...I still remember alot of rotation problems on defense when both the Plumlees played together.

We are not basing our arguments on how it worked with LT/Zoubs this year. You keep saying that, not those of us that lean toward 2 bigs playing. Miles and Mason's skill sets are very different from LT and Zoubs. Both the offensive and defensive approach this coming season will be different than this past season.

K will build a new offensive scheme to match the personnel on hand and it will not be a case of 2 bigs only on the court to screen and rebound. He will design an offense that will make good use of this years bigs and Kyrie. I doubt it looks anything like this past years offensive scheme.

On defense the rotations will be similar but not identical to how they were this past season. I suspect K will go back to applying high pressure on the ball (more aggressive than what Nolan did this past season) and extreme pressure/denial on the wings with Miles and Mason waiting to clean up any mistakes should a wing defender get burned.

We can play fast and big at the same time. The substitution patterns will be markedly different from last year due to playing at a much higher pace creating many more possessions. The bigs we have will be able to run the floor. Kelly is the slowest in the group but even he should be able to handle the pace given there will be fresh bodies ready and waiting to give him a breather.

The small line up will be used as well, but most of us feel we will be a better team defensively and rebounding wise if we have 2 bigs on the floor more often than not. A lot of sound arguments, stats, etc etc, have been spelled out in this thread to support that. Most of the guys arguing for the small line up have done the same.

[SilkyJ]

Exactly. That makes a huge difference. He hit the same number in one year while being double-teamed that Nolan did having the 3rd or 4th best defender on him.

Sure, but who's the better defender: the 3rd best defender on an ACC team or the best defender on any team Liberty played? SOS/competition is important too...

[NSDukeFan]

Sure, but who's the better defender: the 3rd best defender on an ACC team or the best defender on any team Liberty played? SOS/competition is important too...


Exactly. That makes a huge difference. He hit the same number in one year while being double-teamed that Nolan did having the 3rd or 4th best defender on him.

And who is the better shooter? Is it the guy who is the man and takes the most shots on a weaker team, or the guy who makes the higher percentage on a stronger team? I'm not saying there is a right or wrong answer, just that I don't know yet.

[Jderf]

And who is the better shooter? Is it the guy who is the man and takes the most shots on a weaker team, or the guy who makes the higher percentage on a stronger team? I'm not saying there is a right or wrong answer, just that I don't know yet.

I look at it this way. Nolan is a versatile scorer and is known to be a huge threat, but you never hear people (teammates, coaches, analysts) going on raves about just his shot. He's got a good shot, but what makes him dangerous is that he can score in a variety of ways. Seth on the other hand, is known for filling it up from deep, pulling up from almost anywhere on the court with his quick release. When people talk about Seth, they inevitably talk about his shooting - or recently, more and more about how there is more to his game than just shooting. At the very least then, we can say that Seth is widely considered to be the better shooter, though not necessarily the better scorer. For those of you who want to "Kant it up" and discuss the difference between what we think of them and how good they are in reality, well that can only really be decided on the court.

[toooskies]

I think a quicker summary is, Nolan can reliably knock down set-shot wide-open 3-pointers on a regular basis. But you didn't see many off-the-dribble 3s or coming-off-a-pick 3s from him, like you did, say, Redick (or even Scheyer). Curry will be able to shoot more 3-pointers at a good rate which Nolan hasn't. Of course, the fact that he hasn't done it before doesn't preclude Nolan from adding it to his game.

In other words, being a "good shooter" is rarely about percentages and much more about capability when necessary. Which is why Redick's percentages aren't great despite him being one of the great 3-point shooters of his time-- because he could find more good 3-point shots than any other player.

[MisterRoddy]

I think a quicker summary is, Nolan can reliably knock down set-shot wide-open 3-pointers on a regular basis. But you didn't see many off-the-dribble 3s or coming-off-a-pick 3s from him, like you did, say, Redick (or even Scheyer). Curry will be able to shoot more 3-pointers at a good rate which Nolan hasn't. Of course, the fact that he hasn't done it before doesn't preclude Nolan from adding it to his game.

In other words, being a "good shooter" is rarely about percentages and much more about capability when necessary. Which is why Redick's percentages aren't great despite him being one of the great 3-point shooters of his time-- because he could find more good 3-point shots than any other player.

Whoa there, JJ's 3-point percentages year by year were: .399, .395, .403, .421. Accounting for how many threes JJ took, that's highly impressive and what I would call, great.

[hq2]

I'm not convinced both Plumlees will start next year. As yet, neither has proven to have any kind of reliable low post offense, and they're both foul prone. I'd say one of the Plumlees comes off the bench. That would give him more impact on the game with fresh legs, and allow for a better front court rotation.

Conversely, with the guard depth we have, it's a pity not to use it. I'd say what might happen is Andre may swing to the 3 spot some in the rotation. He has the height (note Gerald was also only 6-4) and the hops to play a small 3; we haven't seen that much of his drive and score offense, but he definitely has it. That would make us a little short on the front line, but with Andre playing more minutes, we would have more scoring, and would allow for less PT arguments in the backcourt. This would give us a very similar look to what we had last year.

[toooskies]

Whoa there, JJ's 3-point percentages year by year were: .399, .395, .403, .421. Accounting for how many threes JJ took, that's highly impressive and what I would call, great.

Yes, but as you said, you must account for how many threes JJ took. I misspoke when I said "rarely about percentages", but percentage isn't the only, or even primary elements of judging a good shooter. In terms of career stats, JJ ranks 103rd all time according to here (http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/leaders/fg3-pct-player-career.html). Few would say JJ was a worse shooter than, say, Battier-- JJ's degree of difficulty was simply higher. One of Shane's strengths, on the other hand, is shot selection-- taking good shots instead of being a great shooter.

On Seth, though, it's a little early to call him a great shooter given that his percentages are pretty far below his brother's, even though they played with similar circumstances (focal point of the offense for a non-major team).

[MisterRoddy]

Yes, but as you said, you must account for how many threes JJ took. I misspoke when I said "rarely about percentages", but percentage isn't the only, or even primary elements of judging a good shooter. In terms of career stats, JJ ranks 103rd all time according to here (http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/leaders/fg3-pct-player-career.html). Few would say JJ was a worse shooter than, say, Battier-- JJ's degree of difficulty was simply higher. One of Shane's strengths, on the other hand, is shot selection-- taking good shots instead of being a great shooter.

On Seth, though, it's a little early to call him a great shooter given that his percentages are pretty far below his brother's, even though they played with similar circumstances (focal point of the offense for a non-major team).

If you look at the minimum number of shots, it's 200. JJ on the other hand top well over 1000 over the course of his career and he still ranks that high.

Yes, Seth hasn't proven himself to be called a great shooter at the collegiate level yet but we can call him a very good shooter and there's no doubt that in his Duke career, he can prove that he is a great shooter (For all intents and purposes, I believe he's already a great shooter, he just needs to prove it in the games)

[MChambers]

(For all intensive purposes, I believe he's already a great shooter, he just needs to prove it in the games)
Sorry, but it's "for all intents and purposes". Interesting how often I see it with your formulation, however.

[MisterRoddy]

Sorry, but it's "for all intents and purposes". Interesting how often I see it with your formulation, however.

Sorry. It's fixed. (embarrassing..)

[Big Pappa]

Seth is simply known everywhere as a "shooter" while Nolan is known for many other aspects of his game including defense and slashing to the basket. Maybe it will be different when they hit the floor this next season (although I don't think it will be), but as of now he is considered to be a great shooter.

Here are a few quotes to support:



"Curry was one of the better players at the camp. He was certainly the best outside shooter of the bunch." Ryan Feldman of The Hoops Report about the CP3 Camp.

Occasionally the topic was transfer Seth Curry, and the talk always related to shooting range. "He makes them from everywhere and anywhere," Duke senior Lance Thomas said during the Blue Devils' NCAA run. - Charlotte Observer.

“He’s one of the best pure scorers I’ve seen,” said Stephen, 22, the seventh pick of last year’s N.B.A. draft, who is averaging 16.5 points and 5.7 assists a game. “He’s got a knack for just putting the ball in the basket.” - The New York Times.

"Much like his brother Stephen, a projected 2009 NBA lottery pick, Seth has the uncanny ability to shoot the ball. But Seth also faces some of the same issues as his brother as well. Can he play defense? Is he comfortable taking the ball to the rim? No matter how you twist it, Duke will at least have a dead-eye shooting guard coming off the bench." - SLAM Magazine.

I believe without a doubt that Seth will prove to be a great shooter for the Blue Devils, and I see no problem in calling him a great shooter right now.

[toooskies]

If you look at the minimum number of shots, it's 200. JJ on the other hand top well over 1000 over the course of his career and he still ranks that high.

Yes, Seth hasn't proven himself to be called a great shooter at the collegiate level yet but we can call him a very good shooter and there's no doubt that in his Duke career, he can prove that he is a great shooter (For all intents and purposes, I believe he's already a great shooter, he just needs to prove it in the games)

Actually it's a minimum of 200 made 3-pointers, so everyone on that list has at least roughly half of JJ's 453 career 3-point makes-- which means these guys all made a ton of shots. Also, This list only includes players since the 3-point line has been valid in the college game, so only roughly 25 years. It's not that extensive of a list.

In all likelihood, unless Nolan significantly develops his 3-point shooting ability his senior year, he won't be eligible for the list. Singler has 205 makes through 3 years.

But again-- JJ did that with a very high degree of difficulty, being the primary option for three years in a major conference, taking shots far outside most players' ranges and always being guarded.

Let me say though-- 40% is by no means a bad 3-point percentage, and well worth taking every shot that's that likely to go in. 35% is close to the point where you'd be better off getting 2-point shots than 3s, though (about as many points per shot as a 50% 2-pointer, but introducing more risk of a bad shooting streak.)

[MisterRoddy]

Actually it's a minimum of 200 made 3-pointers, so everyone on that list has at least roughly half of JJ's 453 career 3-point makes-- which means these guys all made a ton of shots. Also, This list only includes players since the 3-point line has been valid in the college game, so only roughly 25 years. It's not that extensive of a list.

My mistake, that makes more sense.


Let me say though-- 40% is by no means a bad 3-point percentage, and well worth taking every shot that's that likely to go in. 35% is close to the point where you'd be better off getting 2-point shots than 3s, though (about as many points per shot as a 50% 2-pointer, but introducing more risk of a bad shooting streak.)

You speak as if 40% from behind the arc is average or barely above when I was always under the impression that it was a very, very good percentage from 3.

Also, Seth's percentage from behind the arc his freshman year at Liberty was barely below 35%. Are you saying he would be better off not shooting threes?

[Duvall]

For those of you who want to "Kant it up" and discuss the difference between what we think of them and how good they are in reality, well that can only really be decided on the court.

No, that would be silly. Better to rely on fragmented descriptions of pickup games and practices.

[Jderf]

No, that would be silly. Better to rely on fragmented descriptions of pickup games and practices.

Ah, yes. I forgot the protocols for some reason. Minor slip-up. In addition to pick-up games and practice, you need to weigh the evidence from from the occasional line in an interview vaguely referencing one-on-one games with his brother, evaluate the conflicting accounts between the two brothers as to the outcomes of said match-ups, note how many letters the names of said brothers have in common (e.g. all of the letters in Seth's name are in Stephen's, but Stephen has that extra p-e-n, does this mean he has a more rounded game? Or just that Stephen has better handwriting?) , etc. etc. ad nauseam.

[toooskies]

You speak as if 40% from behind the arc is average or barely above when I was always under the impression that it was a very, very good percentage from 3.

Also, Seth's percentage from behind the arc his freshman year at Liberty was barely below 35%. Are you saying he would be better off not shooting threes?

I added that disclaimer to make it clear that I was not at all taking away from JJ in his shooting-- 40% is a terrific percentage. A 40% shooter is likely the best on a team. But shooting 40% doesn't make you a legendary shooter like Redick was. It's taking 3s when you're defended, when you're moving, and off the dribble. Since Redick could do all of those and maintain a high percentage, he's a legendary shooter.

I have no idea whether Seth can do those things against ACC-caliber competition; I just know that whatever he did at Liberty, he statistically didn't do as well as JJ at Duke or Stephen Curry at Davidson in their freshman years. Yes, high standards, but my definition of the word "great" might be closer to Coach K's than average. Whether they were the best shots that Liberty could get or not is questionable-- if he was forcing bad shots because Liberty had no other option, then fine. But if they were good shots, he's got some improving to do.

If he maintains his Liberty shooting percentage, he'll be lower than NS, KS, and AD's shooting from last year. I imagine the combination of not being defended as the primary scorer, not playing 35 minutes a game, advice from the Duke coaching staff, and the experience that comes with age will improve SC's shooting percentage behind the arc. How much is anyone's guess, though-- he might shoot 37%, he might shoot 45%.

[kyriecrazy2013]

3 of our 4 best players (Smith Curry Irving) are 6-3 or less. Small I say. Coach K will play the best players.

[Jderf]

Coach K will play the best players.

How many times has this meme been touted as though it were the end of the discussion? I say Coach K will play his best team, not his best players. It's just as catchy and makes even more sense, and it sometimes means that a player might have to come off the bench even if he is a better scorer than some of the starters.

[Newton_14]

How many times has this meme been touted as though it were the end of the discussion? I say Coach K will play his best team, not his best players. It's just as catchy and makes even more sense, and it sometimes means that a player might have to come off the bench even if he is a better scorer than some of the starters.

It is a worn out expression that is for sure. My argument to that one-liner has always been that K actually goes with his 5 best defensive players and most people that use the "5 best players" line are always basing it on offensive ability.

But you are right, even that view is flawed. What K actually does is play the guys that give the team the best chance to win. I just finished watching the 2nd half of the ACC Championship game again on ESPNU, and was reminded again of just how well that team played defense. Unreal. I don't think anyone would argue that the 5 starters in the late season run were the 5 best offensive players on the team either.

[DukieInBrasil]

whether our identity will be big or small next year I think will mitigated by the fact that we'll be a 3pt-shooting team. Consider, 9 of our 10 recruited players (I don't know about Josh) are capable of hitting 3s, including 4 of our 5 big'uns. Kyle is a very good 3pt shooter, Ryan has a rep for being really good but has only shown a mediocre shot so far, Mason reportedly can shoot the 3 but has not shot much or well from 3 so far in his career and Miles hit the only 3 of his collegiate career so far. So while Ryan and the MPs may not be threats yet, they have shown they can hit outside shots, and for big'uns that is a valuable dimension to have in their game. I don't know TTs game at all but I'm assuming he can hit the occasional 3, while Kyrie is reported to be an excellent 3pt shooter. Nolan, Dre and Seth have all proven that they are legit threats.
Pretty much any squad that K puts on the floor will have multiple 3pt threats, sometimes as many as 5 guys that are capable of hitting the long ball. To me that will be one of the defining characteristics of the team.

[ice-9]

A big problem with the discussion so far is that we seem to be equating scoring with "best." I.e. that the best player is the best scorer. Seth is going to be an awesome scorer -- that seems to be more and more clear -- but sometimes what the team needs more are other things: rebounding, physical presence in the paint, height to alter shots, screens, etc. That should enter into the definition of what's best.

Because those things are perhaps more subtle, we tend to undervalue them.

It is not clear to me that having Seth in the lineup at the expense of Miles (or Mason) is better. In certain situations it might be, in others it won't. I think most of the time we will go big.

Finally, much of the discussion has been about Nolan vs. Seth. I don't agree with this at all. Nolan will definitely start. He's a proven player, a leader, and a key cog from a national championship team. Even if Seth is "better" than Nolan on a pure talent level, the differences are too small to outweigh the intangibles.

Nolan will definitely start.

In fact, I think the real debate is Seth vs. Dawkins, because the key question is how minutes will be divided among those two. Will Seth be a 6th man with starter minutes? Or will Seth be one of two key perimeter reserves with Dawkins?

At first I thought it would be more even, but given the reports coming out it seems it might just be Seth.

I hope this is something that Dawkins will be able to deal with; that chemistry can remain positive; and that Dawkins keeps in mind that he should've been a freshman coming in this season not expected to play a major role.

[DevilHorns]

In fact, I think the real debate is Seth vs. Dawkins, because the key question is how minutes will be divided among those two. Will Seth be a 6th man with starter minutes? Or will Seth be one of two key perimeter reserves with Dawkins?

At first I thought it would be more even, but given the reports coming out it seems it might just be Seth.

I hope this is something that Dawkins will be able to deal with; that chemistry can remain positive; and that Dawkins keeps in mind that he should've been a freshman coming in this season not expected to play a major role.

And hence why I think we go small. Its too hard to ignore that we will under-utilize guard depth if we have only 2 guards on the floor since I think we all expect Kyrie and Nolan to be out there for at least 3/4s of the game each. At the same time, I realize that Kyle playing his natural 3 position last year really worked out well for us obviously, and that was the stated goal for him to develop at that position from the staff's POV. I'm not sure how we are going to balance these issues, but I do hope that somehow Andre isn't left out of the rotation (for substantial min). I really like the kid.

[MisterRoddy]

A big problem with the discussion so far is that we seem to be equating scoring with "best." I.e. that the best player is the best scorer. Seth is going to be an awesome scorer -- that seems to be more and more clear -- but sometimes what the team needs more are other things: rebounding, physical presence in the paint, height to alter shots, screens, etc. That should enter into the definition of what's best.

Because those things are perhaps more subtle, we tend to undervalue them.

It is not clear to me that having Seth in the lineup at the expense of Miles (or Mason) is better. In certain situations it might be, in others it won't. I think most of the time we will go big.

Finally, much of the discussion has been about Nolan vs. Seth. I don't agree with this at all. Nolan will definitely start. He's a proven player, a leader, and a key cog from a national championship team. Even if Seth is "better" than Nolan on a pure talent level, the differences are too small to outweigh the intangibles.

Nolan will definitely start.

In fact, I think the real debate is Seth vs. Dawkins, because the key question is how minutes will be divided among those two. Will Seth be a 6th man with starter minutes? Or will Seth be one of two key perimeter reserves with Dawkins?

At first I thought it would be more even, but given the reports coming out it seems it might just be Seth.

I hope this is something that Dawkins will be able to deal with; that chemistry can remain positive; and that Dawkins keeps in mind that he should've been a freshman coming in this season not expected to play a major role.

Why can't Seth be a 6th man with starter minutes AND be one of two key perimeter reserves with Dawkins?

You seem to believe that if Seth is going to be a star 6th man, Dawkins wont be playing in an important role.

Alright, let's look at a hypothetical scenario.

Say,
Kyrie plays around 25 min/game at the 1
Nolan gets 30 mins/game at the 2
Kyle gets 25 mins/game at the 3 (rest of his minutes at 4)

That gives Seth and Andre 40 perimeter minutes to split. Even if Seth gets starters minutes and plays around 25 of those minutes, that gives Andre around 15/game which would give him plenty of opportunity to be a big factor in Duke's offense.

My minutes might not be exactly correct in this scenario, but no matter how the minutes are handed out, I expect Andre to be a key role player for Duke next year and get around 15 or so minutes at least even if Seth is to get starters minutes (which I think there is a good chance at happening.

[ice-9]

Why can't Seth be a 6th man with starter minutes AND be one of two key perimeter reserves with Dawkins?

You seem to believe that if Seth is going to be a star 6th man, Dawkins wont be playing in an important role.

Alright, let's look at a hypothetical scenario.

Say,
Kyrie plays around 25 min/game at the 1
Nolan gets 30 mins/game at the 2
Kyle gets 25 mins/game at the 3 (rest of his minutes at 4)

That gives Seth and Andre 40 perimeter minutes to split. Even if Seth gets starters minutes and plays around 25 of those minutes, that gives Andre around 15/game which would give him plenty of opportunity to be a big factor in Duke's offense.

My minutes might not be exactly correct in this scenario, but no matter how the minutes are handed out, I expect Andre to be a key role player for Duke next year and get around 15 or so minutes at least even if Seth is to get starters minutes (which I think there is a good chance at happening.


I agree this is a highly plausible scenario over the course of the season (it's what I project as well).

However, in important games, I think it'll be more like
- Kyrie: 30 min
- Nolan: 35 min
- Kyle: 35 min
- Mason: 30 min
- Miles: 25 min

And then
- Seth: 20 min
- Kelly: 15 min
- Andre/Josh: 10 min

If Seth is as good as advertised, in key games I can easily see Andre and Josh playing negligible minutes.

[MisterRoddy]

I agree this is a highly plausible scenario over the course of the season (it's what I project as well).

However, in important games, I think it'll be more like
- Kyrie: 30 min
- Nolan: 35 min
- Kyle: 35 min
- Mason: 30 min
- Miles: 25 min

And then
- Seth: 20 min
- Kelly: 15 min
- Andre/Josh: 10 min

If Seth is as good as advertised, in key games I can easily see Andre and Josh playing negligible minutes.

2 Things:

- I would take away five of Mason's minutes and give them to Andre. 30 minutes is a lot of minutes for a big, especially in an up-tempo offense (even in the key games)

- Even in key games, I see Andre having an important role off the bench. If he progresses as expected, there's no way K can keep him on the bench giving him only "negligible" minutes.

[ice-9]

2 Things:

- I would take away five of Mason's minutes and give them to Andre. 30 minutes is a lot of minutes for a big, especially in an up-tempo offense (even in the key games)

- Even in key games, I see Andre having an important role off the bench. If he progresses as expected, there's no way K can keep him on the bench giving him only "negligible" minutes.


Therein lies the crux of the discussion. Because it seems like those 5 minutes should go to Seth not Andre if Seth is as good as advertised.

[MisterRoddy]

Therein lies the crux of the discussion. Because it seems like those 5 minutes should go to Seth not Andre if Seth is as good as advertised.

Alright, now we are getting WAY to specific.

Bottom line, I predict Andre will average at least 15 (even in key games) productive minutes off the bench along with Seth who will be one of, if not, the best 6th men in the NCAA while averaging around 20-25 minutes per.

[hq2]

Andre still needs to be in the mix at the small forward position. With both Plumlees in, Andre and two other guards would be an excellent fit. I think K may use that a fair amount. Andre's skill level is better than Ryan Kelly's, so using him more at the 3 when possible makes more sense.

[Cockabeau]

Ryan Kelly is one of the most skilled players on our team. He can shoot,handle and pass. Dawkins needs work on his handle AND passing.

[wilko]

Pardon me for just checking in on this discussion.
The burning question in my mind for next yr is:
Who is growing the beard?

That worked out well. It needs to be done again.

[MisterRoddy]

Ryan Kelly is one of the most skilled players on our team. He can shoot,handle and pass. Dawkins needs work on his handle AND passing.

As far as I'm concerned, Ryan hasn't proven any of that yet. I don't know how you can make these claims when seeing do little of Kelly.
Andre and Ryan are both skilled players, but I see Andre being more of an important factor off the bench. His jump shot , experience last year, and improvement will make sure of that.

[Bob Green]

....but I see Andre being more of an important factor off the bench. His jump shot , experience last year, and improvement will make sure of that.

I agree. Dawkins' experience from last season coupled with the standard freshman to sophomore improvement will ensure he plays a key role on next season's team. The big shots he hit in the ACC Tournament and in the Elite Eight win over Baylor should give Dawkins increased confidence. I am particularly interested in seeing improvement in Dawkins' driving to the rim and midrange jumper. I believe he could become a dangerous offensive weapon shooting the three from the corner once defenders have to respect his ability to drive the baseline and finish or pull up for a midrange jumper.


Dawkins needs work on his handle AND passing.

Agreed. Dawkins must get better handling the ball so he can take advantage of playing opportunities when Duke goes small against the full court press or in any end of game scenario. I'm confident he is aware of the shortcoming in this skillset and working hard to correct it.

There is a lot of excitement and anticipation in this thread in regard to Seth Curry and rightfully so. Curry is going to be a special player and I'm as excited as everyone else in anticipation of seeing him on the court with the letters D-U-K-E across the front of his jersey. However, I am equally excited to see a more mature, improved Dawkins in 2010-11. Dawkins displayed flashes of greatness as a freshman culminating in those two huge three point baskets in the first half against Baylor. Plus he improved defensively during the course of the season. All of these factors point toward Dawkins being a more complete player during his upcoming sophomore season.

[Cockabeau]

As far as I'm concerned, Ryan hasn't proven any of that yet. I don't know how you can make these claims when seeing do little of Kelly.
Andre and Ryan are both skilled players, but I see Andre being more of an important factor off the bench. His jump shot , experience last year, and improvement will make sure of that.

I think that Andre will get more too but in terms of pure skill Ryan Kelly possesses above average handle,shooting and passing for a big man.

[Kedsy]

I think that Andre will get more too but in terms of pure skill Ryan Kelly possesses above average handle,shooting and passing for a big man.

I agree with both sides of this particular debate. Both of these guys could step up big time with the benefit of the traditional freshman-to-sophomore bump. Andre could be a tremendous offensive player for us if his defense allows him to stay on the court, and Ryan Kelly could be the biggest surprise of the team. If he becomes a capable defender and he gains his confidence on the court then it's not outside the realm of possibility that when we ask who the fifth starter will be, the answer might be neither Seth nor Miles, but possibly Ryan. Not saying it's going to happen, but crazier things have in the past.

And the greatest thing is, if I'm right that gives us 8 players who are worthy of starting, even though only 5 of them will actually start. That, my friends, is quality depth.

[Bob Green]

If he becomes a capable defender and he gains his confidence on the court then it's not outside the realm of possibility that when we ask who the fifth starter will be, the answer might be neither Seth nor Miles, but possibly Ryan. Not saying it's going to happen, but crazier things have in the past.

I have to disagree here. Without getting all emotional and overstating my position, I must reiterate Miles Plumlee has started 26 games so far in his career at Duke. I am confident Miles Plumlee will be a starter in 2010-11.

[Newton_14]

I have to disagree here. Without getting all emotional and overstating my position, I must reiterate Miles Plumlee has started 26 games so far in his career at Duke. I am confident Miles Plumlee will be a starter in 2010-11.

I agree with you on Miles Bob, but I can totally understand where Kedsy is coming from. Kelly is an extremely skilled kid only needing adjustment to the speed of the game (very acheivable) and strength (even more acheivable). He could absolutely be a high impact player in the near future.

For Andre, all he needs is improvement on defense, ball handling, and moving without the ball. Like Kelly, Andre can also be a high impact player in the near future.

I totally agree with Kedsy in that it is possible we have 8 players worthy of starting, and that would be incredible quality depth for a college team. Even better is just about everyone of them has a skillset unique to themselves, so subbing in 1 for another brings a different dimension to the team on the floor.

K would have so many options, he could match pretty much whatever look any opponent threw at him. Work to do to get to that outcome for sure, but it is surely possible with this group of kids.

Very exciting. That is the reason that both sides of the debate in this thread have really valid arguments to make.

[MisterRoddy]

I agree with you on Miles Bob, but I can totally understand where Kedsy is coming from. Kelly is an extremely skilled kid only needing adjustment to the speed of the game (very acheivable) and strength (even more acheivable). He could absolutely be a high impact player in the near future.

For Andre, all he needs is improvement on defense, ball handling, and moving without the ball. Like Kelly, Andre can also be a high impact player in the near future.

I totally agree with Kedsy in that it is possible we have 8 players worthy of starting, and that would be incredible quality depth for a college team. Even better is just about everyone of them has a skillset unique to themselves, so subbing in 1 for another brings a different dimension to the team on the floor.

K would have so many options, he could match pretty much whatever look any opponent threw at him. Work to do to get to that outcome for sure, but it is surely possible with this group of kids.

Very exciting. That is the reason that both sides of the debate in this thread have really valid arguments to make.

I think Bob was more disagreeing with the fact that it's a possibility that Ryan will start this upcoming year, which, I agree with. Miles displayed a ton of improvement last year and there's no doubt that he will only improve this year. (Doesn't hurt that he has 26 starts and 2 seasons under his belt).

As for Ryan Kelly having the skills to start, I'm not as sold that he could start right now as he really hasn't proven himself yet, but he definitely has the potential. I am really looking forward to seeing Ryan's development this upcoming year.

[Kedsy]

I have to disagree here. Without getting all emotional and overstating my position, I must reiterate Miles Plumlee has started 26 games so far in his career at Duke. I am confident Miles Plumlee will be a starter in 2010-11.

I agree that Miles will be starting at the beginning of the season. But many people have rightfully said we don't know what changes will occur during the season, and all I'm saying is Ryan in the starting lineup is one that may have to be considered among all the others. The interesting thing about Ryan as a starter, is there's not the obvious defensive disadvantage we'd get if, e.g., Seth was starting. The best argument against Ryan is he hasn't yet proven he's good enough to start (a statement with which I currently agree). By mid-January, Seth will still be undersized at the "3," but who's to say the arguments against Ryan won't be moot by that time?

Just because someone has started in the past doesn't mean he will be starting in the future. John Smith started 30 games as a sophomore, 9 as a junior and 10 as a senior. Also, if we truly have 8 players worthy of starting (and I'm not saying we definitely will, but we might) that means 3 guys who would start on most teams in the country will be coming off of our bench. I'm fairly confident that Kyle, Nolan, and Kyrie will be consistently starting, which leaves us with Mason, Miles, Seth, Andre, and Ryan, and only two of them will start. Based on their body of work so far, those will be Mason and Miles, but I don't think any of us can see far enough ahead to know for certain who the two supporting starters will be at the end (or even the middle) of the year.

Finally, assuming all eight guys get sufficient minutes, does it really matter which ones start? Why would you get all emotional over this?

[Wander]

I guess this is a minority opinion, but I see no reason why we should predict that Ryan Kelly is ahead of Josh Hairston in this 8 man rotation being talked about.

[MisterRoddy]

I guess this is a minority opinion, but I see no reason why we should predict that Ryan Kelly is ahead of Josh Hairston in this 8 man rotation being talked about.

Well, for one, Ryan has a year under his belt and big men lately have been seeing big jumps in one year at Duke (Miles, Zoubs) and Ryan is highly skilled and was a highly ranked recruit, just a bit undersized last year (weight wise) so, if he puts on some bulk and improves his skill like projected, there's no reason to think he wont develop and be an important part to Duke's team next year off the bench.

I, too think some on this board aren't giving Josh enough of a chance as I think he will surprise many next year because, in watching some games of his last year, he is highly skilled and hard working, not to mention he has very good size for the power forward position at the collegiate level. That to me sounds like a guy that can come in right away and get some good minutes off the bench and produce. Whether he will become the first big off the bench ahead of Kelly (I think it's possible) remains to be seen but I think it's likely that we could see a 9-man rotation with both Ryan and Josh getting good minutes off the bench.

[Saratoga2]

Well, for one, Ryan has a year under his belt and big men lately have been seeing big jumps in one year at Duke (Miles, Zoubs) and Ryan is highly skilled and was a highly ranked recruit, just a bit undersized last year (weight wise) so, if he puts on some bulk and improves his skill like projected, there's no reason to think he wont develop and be an important part to Duke's team next year off the bench.

I, too think some on this board aren't giving Josh enough of a chance as I think he will surprise many next year because, in watching some games of his last year, he is highly skilled and hard working, not to mention he has very good size for the power forward position at the collegiate level. That to me sounds like a guy that can come in right away and get some good minutes off the bench and produce. Whether he will become the first big off the bench ahead of Kelly (I think it's possible) remains to be seen but I think it's likely that we could see a 9-man rotation with both Ryan and Josh getting good minutes off the bench.

It's unlikely that any big man, for instance the Plumlee's, will get to play in excess of 25 minutes a game. This will leave a lot of minutes for both Ryan and Josh to be in the game. They both have a lot of talent and with my view of Singler primarily playing the 3, neither Ryan or Josh will have to worry about PT. Looking forward to the season and to see how the situation with the big men plays out.

[whereinthehellami]

I, too think some on this board aren't giving Josh enough of a chance as I think he will surprise many next year because, in watching some games of his last year, he is highly skilled and hard working, not to mention he has very good size for the power forward position at the collegiate level. That to me sounds like a guy that can come in right away and get some good minutes off the bench and produce. Whether he will become the first big off the bench ahead of Kelly (I think it's possible) remains to be seen but I think it's likely that we could see a 9-man rotation with both Ryan and Josh getting good minutes off the bench.

I wouldn't say that Josh has very good size for the PF position. Josh doesn't have alot of strength, especially ACC level strength. From the games I have seen, Josh has shied away from banging down low and I would go as far as to call Josh a finesse player. i see him having a year like Ryan did last year. You can see the skill and the promise but his lack of strengh and speed will limit his minutes as he adjusts to life in the ACC. Like Ryan, Josh will have a great attitude and will be the consumate team player. I just would not expect too much from Josh for next year unless there are injuries in the frontcourt.

[MisterRoddy]

I wouldn't say that Josh has very good size for the PF position. Josh doesn't have alot of strength, especially ACC level strength. From the games I have seen, Josh has shied away from banging down low and I would go as far as to call Josh a finesse player. i see him having a year like Ryan did last year. You can see the skill and the promise but his lack of strengh and speed will limit his minutes as he adjusts to life in the ACC. Like Ryan, Josh will have a great attitude and will be the consumate team player. I just would not expect too much from Josh for next year unless there are injuries in the frontcourt.

I would say 6'9", 220 is good size for the PF position at the collegiate level. Strength will develop for Hairston so I'm not really worried about that. I highly doubt Josh has a year like Ryan did last year. Remember, Ryan was playing behind 4 other big men and was very skinny whereas Josh will be one of two bigs off the bench and, like I said, he has good size and is built very sturdily. Like Mason, having a bttb game isn't Josh's game but Josh is effective grabbing rebounds and banging down low in that regard. If he can grab those rebounds, play effective D, and maintain the reliable midrange jumper he displayed in high school (but defense will really be important), I think he will have a regular role in the rotation.

You also have to realize that a year like Ryans last year for a Top 25 recruit isn't really the norm at all.

[Bob Green]

If he becomes a capable defender and he gains his confidence on the court then it's not outside the realm of possibility that when we ask who the fifth starter will be, the answer might be neither Seth nor Miles, but possibly Ryan. Not saying it's going to happen, but crazier things have in the past.


Finally, assuming all eight guys get sufficient minutes, does it really matter which ones start? Why would you get all emotional over this?

Your original post inferred Mason would start over Miles. I shouldn't get all emotional over any post because this is just discussion between fellow Duke fans about the team we all love, but there seems to be a general lack of appreciation for Miles Plumlee in the ongoing discussions and that frustrates me. I am of the opinion his toughness and developing offensive game will be huge for the Blue Devils the next two seasons. Miles is a player who can rebound and put the ball in the basket. His baby hook shot and mid-range jumper are impressive. He will have to be more consistent as an upper class man. I believe Miles Plumlee is a lock to start in the post, while Mason still has a lot to prove on the court, however, you are 100 percent correct that none of us can see far enough ahead to know who will be starting mid and late season.

[COYS]

Your original post inferred Mason would start over Miles. I shouldn't get all emotional over any post because this is just discussion between fellow Duke fans about the team we all love, but there seems to be a general lack of appreciation for Miles Plumlee in the ongoing discussions and that frustrates me. I am of the opinion his toughness and developing offensive game will be huge for the Blue Devils the next two seasons. Miles is a player who can rebound and put the ball in the basket. His baby hook shot and mid-range jumper are impressive. He will have to be more consistent as an upper class man. I believe Miles Plumlee is a lock to start in the post, while Mason still has a lot to prove on the court, however, you are 100 percent correct that none of us can see far enough ahead to know who will be starting mid and late season.

I completely agree with you, Bob. For all of the attention that Zoubek received (and completely deserved, i might add) for being a beast on the boards, Miles wasn't too shabby, himself. His defensive rebounding rate was just behind Zoubek's (24.8 for Zoubs, 22.5 for Miles), good enough for 85th in the nation and much higher if you take away players playing fewer than 10 min. per game. His offensive rebounding rate wasn't bad, either at 11.1%. While Miles may not be the offensive boardsman that Zoubs was, his defensive rebounding rate already beats Zoubs for every year except for Zoubs senior season. Miles will undoubtedly improve his numbers with Zoubek gone, leaving more boards for him to eat up. I will be utterly surprised if Miles doesn't become one of the better rebounders in the nation, next year, if not an elite rebounder. Add to his rebounding numbers a more lethal offensive game and you get a player who will be a very good center for Duke, next year, and one of the better centers in the ACC. He won't lead the team in scoring nor will he be the number 1 option on offense for obvious reasons. However, if for some reason he is not starting for Duke next year, it will be because either Josh or Ryan blossom into lottery pick caliber players all of a sudden. It will not be because Miles can't play.

[Kedsy]

I guess this is a minority opinion, but I see no reason why we should predict that Ryan Kelly is ahead of Josh Hairston in this 8 man rotation being talked about.

I fully expect Josh to be in a 9 man rotation, and play a decent number of minutes, but I was talking about 8 guys who might deserve to start, and I don't necessary see Josh as a potential starter as a freshman. That's why I didn't mention him in my earlier posts.

As far as Josh being ahead of Ryan, obviously we'll have to see but the year Ryan has already been with the team practicing under the coaching staff's direction and the opportunity for him to be at Duke working on his body all summer would certainly seem to give him the edge, at least at the beginning of the year.


Your original post inferred Mason would start over Miles. I shouldn't get all emotional over any post because this is just discussion between fellow Duke fans about the team we all love, but there seems to be a general lack of appreciation for Miles Plumlee in the ongoing discussions and that frustrates me. I am of the opinion his toughness and developing offensive game will be huge for the Blue Devils the next two seasons. Miles is a player who can rebound and put the ball in the basket. His baby hook shot and mid-range jumper are impressive. He will have to be more consistent as an upper class man. I believe Miles Plumlee is a lock to start in the post, while Mason still has a lot to prove on the court, however, you are 100 percent correct that none of us can see far enough ahead to know who will be starting mid and late season.

Well, you raise a good point. I have been assuming that if only one Plumlee is starting it would be Mason. I guess it's because Mason seems to have so much more upside than Miles and I'm expecting a big freshman to sophomore jump in which he taps into that upside. Miles already had that fr to so jump and he's become a very solid player, but it's unlikely he'll ever be a star or a potential lottery pick, and that's what a lot of people seem to see in Mason's future. I do expect Miles to get plenty of minutes and be a contributor (especially on the boards), whether he's starting or not, so I'm not sure it's that big of a deal.

[Big Pappa]

Well, you raise a good point. I have been assuming that if only one Plumlee is starting it would be Mason. I guess it's because Mason seems to have so much more upside than Miles and I'm expecting a big freshman to sophomore jump in which he taps into that upside. Miles already had that fr to so jump and he's become a very solid player, but it's unlikely he'll ever be a star or a potential lottery pick, and that's what a lot of people seem to see in Mason's future. I do expect Miles to get plenty of minutes and be a contributor (especially on the boards), whether he's starting or not, so I'm not sure it's that big of a deal.

I do have to agree with Kedsy that if only one Plumlee starts it will be Mason. While Miles had a decent year, he was relieved of his starting duties due to a combination of sub-par play by him and great play by Zoubek. We also can't forget that without the broken wrist, Mason would probably have been starting from day 1.

That said, I see both of them starting and getting around the same amount of minutes and although I think it's highly unlikely, I hope to see them both starting in 2011-2012 too.