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CharlestonDevil
06-04-2010, 10:24 AM
Much is already being made of Duke being preseason #1 next year. We obviously have a lot of talent, and with K on the bench I was just wondering your thoughts on the factors affecting our chances of a repeat.

I would say:
1) Emergence of one or both Plumlees
2) Kyrie's development/running the offense
3) The X factor - someone unexpectedly contributing (i.e. Zoubs this year)

I say this assuming Singler and Smith will play consistently great, as expected, and that Kyrie will be superb given time.

Thoughts?

OZZIE4DUKE
06-04-2010, 10:27 AM
Much is already being made of Duke being preseason #1 next year. We obviously have a lot of talent, and with K on the bench I was just wondering your thoughts on the factors affecting our chances of a repeat.

I would say:
1) Emergence of one or both Plumlees
2) Kyrie's development/running the offense
3) The X factor - someone unexpectedly contributing (i.e. Zoubs this year)

I say this assuming Singler and Smith will play consistently great, as expected, and that Kyrie will be superb given time.

Thoughts?
I think the "unexpected contributor" is someone who most expect to be a huge contributor but you haven't mentioned - Seth Curry. He may be the best player on the team. :cool:

Oh, and welcome to the boards!

Cameron
06-04-2010, 10:51 AM
Seth is unquestionably that X-factor you speak of. Despite all of the praise and attention he has received here and throughout Blue Devil Nation, I think many college basketball fans are completely unaware of the talent we have in waiting in Durham in Curry. He is going to be an all out beast, and reports have indicated that Curry is one of the best shooters we've had in years. Probably since J.J. (Although, I might argue that Andre Dawkins will have something to say about that:))

If Seth were starting -- which I think it's impossible that he will with Kyrie, Nolan and Kyle on the wings -- he might lead this team in scoring. Kid can ball. Come the start of the new year, no longer will he be Stephen's little brother. I don't think he is now.

airowe
06-04-2010, 10:52 AM
I think the "unexpected contributor" is someone who most expect to be a huge contributor but you haven't mentioned - Seth Curry. He may be the best player on the team. :cool:

Oh, and welcome to the boards!

Welcome to the boards indeed. Ozzie, your optimism crown may be in jeopardy.

Seth will be a great player, but best on the team? A couple of likely Preseason All-Americans might have something to say about that. We're lucky to have some strong Senior leadership, what looks to be a somewhat deep rotation, excellent outside shooting, and a couple of very athletic post players. And a pretty good coach as well.

The nature of the one-and-done tourney makes it tough to predict the eventual champion, but if we can keep our intensity up, we have as good odds as anyone.

Kedsy
06-04-2010, 10:54 AM
Much is already being made of Duke being preseason #1 next year. We obviously have a lot of talent, and with K on the bench I was just wondering your thoughts on the factors affecting our chances of a repeat.

The biggest factor affecting our chance of repeating as national champion is the randomness factor in a one-and-done tournament. When you're playing against good teams in a high pressure situation like the NCAAT, you can lose. In fact, you could make a pretty strong case that the "best" team in the country fails to win the championship a lot more than half the time.

All the factors you name have to do with whether Duke will be the best team, but with the personnel we have you can bet we'll at least be one of the best teams unless we have an unanticipated injury or total meltdown. Absent something really weird happening you can more or less write us in as a #1 or #2 seed (probably #1 but you never know). But as we all know, being a number one seed in no way means you'll win the whole shebang.

The next biggest factor that could affect our chance of winning is injuries. Lots of great teams have been derailed by injuries to their top players and we just have to hope it doesn't happen to us.

camion
06-04-2010, 10:55 AM
Sometimes the pieces just fit and everything works. I think that last year was one of those times. If you go by individual talent I think next year's team has more than last year's. I also think it will be difficult to match the beautiful meshing of the available talent we saw in the 2010 championship run to build a team that exceeds last year's. I think we'll be very good next year, but a national championship is a gift and even if we are the best team in March there are no guarantees.

I plan to enjoy the ride and pull hard. I will be pleasantly surprised if we beat the odds to win a second straight title.

CDu
06-04-2010, 11:04 AM
The biggest factor affecting our chance of repeating as national champion is the randomness factor in a one-and-done tournament. When you're playing against good teams in a high pressure situation like the NCAAT, you can lose. In fact, you could make a pretty strong case that the "best" team in the country fails to win the championship a lot more than half the time.

All the factors you name have to do with whether Duke will be the best team, but with the personnel we have you can bet we'll at least be one of the best teams unless we have an unanticipated injury or total meltdown. Absent something really weird happening you can more or less write us in as a #1 or #2 seed (probably #1 but you never know). But as we all know, being a number one seed in no way means you'll win the whole shebang.

The next biggest factor that could affect our chance of winning is injuries. Lots of great teams have been derailed by injuries to their top players and we just have to hope it doesn't happen to us.

Agreed. Sight unseen, I'd say we're no better than a 33% chance to win it all next year. That's simply because there's rarely ever a team, even going into the tournament in March, that's more than a 35-40% chance to win it. If someone gives you even odds for a team vs the field, you take the field.

MCFinARL
06-04-2010, 11:14 AM
Sometimes the pieces just fit and everything works. I think that last year was one of those times. If you go by individual talent I think next year's team has more than last year's. I also think it will be difficult to match the beautiful meshing of the available talent we saw in the 2010 championship run to build a team that exceeds last year's. I think we'll be very good next year, but a national championship is a gift and even if we are the best team in March there are no guarantees.

I plan to enjoy the ride and pull hard. I will be pleasantly surprised if we beat the odds to win a second straight title.

Yeah, this year's team had great chemistry and cohesiveness--factors that can't be counted on, even when you have a lot of talent and a great coach. That and the injury factor are things we will just have to see about--and even if those things go our way, as others have noted here, a lot of things can happen. Someone can get the flu, or break up with their girlfriend, or otherwise just have a bad game on the wrong day and the tournament is done.

I'm crossing my fingers, but I'm not betting the ranch. And I hope the media/fans don't so overhype next year's team that they feel pressure to live up to super high expectations even before they really get a chance to learn about themselves as a team. I think it probably helped this year's group to be a little more under the radar for much of the season than Duke has been some years.

billyj
06-04-2010, 11:22 AM
I think our expectations are way too high. We are probably thinking using our emotions not our logic. An average team in the 64 team bracket would have a 1.56% chance winning it all. You would be considered a huge favorite if you have a close to 20% to win it all. And even with a 13-15% chance you are still probably ranked #1 out of 64 teams.

Here is my calculation, lets say if a team is a favorite in every match towards a championship. The chance of winning would be

First round .99
Second round .85
Sweet 16 .73
Elite eight .64
Final four .6
Champion .57


The probability of this favored team to win it all would be 13.4%. So if a team has a 20% of winning it all, it has to be head and shoulder above all other teams. I don't know if that will be the case next year with a freshmen point guard. I'd be happy to think we have anywhere close to a 15% chance.

gumbomoop
06-04-2010, 11:33 AM
The nature of the one-and-done tourney makes it tough to predict the eventual champion, but if we can keep our intensity up, we have as good odds as anyone.

If Duke plays every play - as the guys surely did in '09-'10 - I'd think our odds are better than anyone else's. Not 75%, nor perhaps even 33%, but Ken-Pom-like, better than any other team's.

Of course we don't want to be overconfident. But we should not shy away from sensible, garden-variety, it's-so-bloody-obvious-you'd-have-to-be-afraid-of-your-own-shadow-not-to-notice, confidence.

If we cannot be optimistic looking toward '10-'11, how the hell am I gonna retire on the dues I receive as the Corresponding Secretary, not to mention Treasurer, of the LOL [Loony Optimists League]. You people are killing both my cash flow and my long-term travel plans. Go get your own - presumably cautious - scam.

P.S. Ozzie [whom I do not know but firmly believe is real], I have not received your dues.

sagegrouse
06-04-2010, 11:44 AM
Much is already being made of Duke being preseason #1 next year. We obviously have a lot of talent, and with K on the bench I was just wondering your thoughts on the factors affecting our chances of a repeat.

I would say:
1) Emergence of one or both Plumlees
2) Kyrie's development/running the offense
3) The X factor - someone unexpectedly contributing (i.e. Zoubs this year)

I say this assuming Singler and Smith will play consistently great, as expected, and that Kyrie will be superb given time.

Thoughts?

With my having just returned from a HS reunion in the fair port city, I welcome you to the Board.

Dukes needs the Plumlees to be as effective overall as LT and Zoubs. They already were on offense, but on defense there was a huge gap, so much so that in the NC game they got relatively little playing time.

Now being "as effective overall" doesn't necessarily mean being as strong on the boards as Zoubs or as tough on all-court defense as Lance. I really believe that most people, including basketball players, make maximum contributions by emphasizing their strengths and trying to minimize their weaknesses. I would look for much higher offensive output from Mason and much better rebounding from Miles, although, Duke being Duke, both guys have to "get it" on defense.

Duke also needs both Seth and Kyrie to be "the real deal," and though I have little doubt, neither one has yet played a minute for Duke.

Now I fully agree with Kedsy that the biggest unknown is the one-and-done nature of the NCAAs, but my objective would be to be a #1 seed, maybe overall #1, going into the tournament and then taking our chances from there.
[Pseudo Mod Comment: "And what other choice does Duke have except "taking our chances?"]

sagegrouse
'Class of Mullins -- truly. Jeff was our class president, following Charlie Rose and Errol Flynn's late son, Sean'

airowe
06-04-2010, 11:51 AM
I'm definitely high on next year's team, but I aint stupid. I'm curious to see the impact that a difficult nonconference schedule with some cross-country travel mixed in will have on this team. We have enough upperclassmen that the guys should be able to overcome a couple losses if they happen, but we shall see.

CharlestonDevil
06-04-2010, 12:14 PM
I definitely hadn't thought of it that way, but you are certainly correct, the tournament seeding and one-and-done format (as far as a chamionship is concerned) is HUGE factor. 91 UNLV, 99 Duke, and 2010 Kansas can attest to that.

However, I take a lot of confidence in knowing that the 2011 Blue Devils have the personnel that fits Coach K's style, up tempo, 3 point shooting, pressure defense, with depth. K is at his best when he has teams that can out-run, out-defend, and out-shoot anyone that comes along.

BlueThru&Thru
06-04-2010, 12:14 PM
I agree that excessive speculation and optimism regarding a NC for '10-'11 can lead to excessive disappointment. Just ask the 2 UK's.

gumbomoop
06-04-2010, 12:18 PM
I'm definitely high on next year's team, but I aint stupid.

I agree that you are possibly high and definitely not stupid, and am confident that this view would be confirmed in a secret ballot, upon which I would insist, should it come to that.

And I accept the implicit hint [a redundundancy??] that optimism may or may not be stupid, depending on circumstances and the data.

And I rely on your signature for continuing sustenance for my loony, and therefore probably quasi-stupid, optimism.

[Nothing in this post could possibly be mistaken for a serious thought. Well, maybe just that one thing......]

gumbomoop
06-04-2010, 12:30 PM
I agree that excessive speculation and optimism regarding a NC for '10-'11 can lead to excessive disappointment. Just ask the 2 UK's.

1. Not to mention the 1 UNC. "Excessive" hardly suffices for what went on over in CH and all over the state.

2. It's a good punch line, but it's actually UK and KU. But ok, you get a pass on grounds of punch line literary license.

Mike Corey
06-04-2010, 01:01 PM
Talent is easier to replace than chemistry. We have the former in spades; we have the leaders who know the equations for good chemistry, but it may take some trial and error before anyone knows how good this team can be, how resilient it can be, and how consistently it can be that good.

BlueThru&Thru
06-04-2010, 01:43 PM
1. Not to mention the 1 UNC. "Excessive" hardly suffices for what went on over in CH and all over the state.

Not sure what that means but I don't recall CH being caught up in predicting NC's even when they won 2 out of the last 6. :D
_____________________________
In Roy We Trust

DukieBoy
06-04-2010, 02:09 PM
Without knowing much of Kyrie's recruiting, is he a one-and-done type of player? Because a back-court of Kyrie, Seth, and Dre would be fun to watch.

gumbomoop
06-04-2010, 03:05 PM
Not sure what that means but I don't recall CH being caught up in predicting NC's even when they won 2 out of the last 6. :D

___________________________
In Roy We Trust

Sorry, as I see I wasn't precise enough. I should have said "excessive disappointment," referring not to falling short of that 3d NC in 6 years, but just to an NCAA bid, period, and really just to something other than a total breakdown. I'll stick to the essential point that, understandably, Heeldom went way beyond excess in its disappointment at Heels' embarrassing collapse, made unfathomably bitter by the world-gone-awry contrast with...... you know.

With the possible return to respectability of Heels in '10-'11, spurred to excessive speculation should McAdoo matriculate, there's likely enough optimism - some bold, some cautious - to go around in both camps in the coming months.

Perhaps we'll chat again on these speculative matters.

Greg_Newton
06-04-2010, 03:15 PM
Seth will be a great player, but best on the team? A couple of likely Preseason All-Americans might have something to say about that. We're lucky to have some strong Senior leadership, what looks to be a somewhat deep rotation, excellent outside shooting, and a couple of very athletic post players. And a pretty good coach as well.

I'm in agreement with this. I'm excited about Seth, but transfer hype tends to get overly inflated (remember the chatter about Dahntay?). He still has to prove he's more than a volume shooter... can he create for himself and others, finsh at the rim, see the floor well, pester guards mercilessly on defense? I think he'll be great for us eventually, but I don't think he'll be on Kyle and Nolan's level right away. It will be interesting to see if he creates some murmers about the starting PG spot early in the season though, if he comes out hot and Kyrie goes through an early frosh slump.

I think Josh and Ryan are the two biggest wildcards. I honestly believe Ryan has the potential to be a 20+ ppg All-America type if he ever gets the kind of confidence playing at the college level as he did at the high school level. I mean yeah, he's a smart player and good passer, but dude could straight up ball in HS... we're talking crossing guards up so bad they'd fall over, catching alley oops and dunking on people, not to mention a very soft touch on an unblockable jump shot. He was nowhere close to it last year, but if he ever finds that comfort zone again, watch out.

Josh is even more of an unknown since he's a frosh, but seems to be very polished offensively - seems like he could put up points in bunches. I wonder how well he'll be able to defend 3's and 4's, respectively? I see him having an Andre-of-last-year-like role.

Speaking of Andre, he'll also be really interesting to watch. If he can get his body and handle in shape, he could add "slasher" to his game thanks to his athletic ability. I can't wait to see how his first real summer at Duke changes his game.

As for the starters... we pretty much known what is hoped and expected from them, so I hope they're up to the task. Here's hoping the Plums can really take the mantle from LT and Z like their teammates are saying they will.

Kedsy
06-04-2010, 03:29 PM
I'm in agreement with this. I'm excited about Seth, but transfer hype tends to get overly inflated (remember the chatter about Dahntay?).

Well, Dahntay averaged 14 and 5 in his two years at Duke, so I'd say there was some substance behind that particular hype.

BlueThru&Thru
06-04-2010, 03:42 PM
I agree with most of what you said. Kudos to K and the '10 team which surprised most people and with which I think K did his best work to get the NC. I don't expect a repeat of last year for UNC and expect significant improvement. How much still remains to be seen.

Greg_Newton
06-04-2010, 03:56 PM
Well, Dahntay averaged 14 and 5 in his two years at Duke, so I'd say there was some substance behind that particular hype.

Dahntay was great, especially his senior year, but I remember hearing the same "best player on the floor at times" comments during his transfer year. Given that he averaged a respectable but not dominating 11ppg the following year, I'd say that probably wasn't entirely accurate.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Seth put up similar numbers next year, but it would definitely surprise me if he's the best player on the team.

Kedsy
06-04-2010, 03:58 PM
Dahntay was great, especially his senior year, but I remember hearing the same "best player on the floor at times" comments during his transfer year. Given that he averaged a respectable but not dominating 11ppg the following year, I'd say that probably wasn't entirely accurate.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Seth put up similar numbers next year, but it would definitely surprise me if he's the best player on the team.

I can't argue with that.

NSDukeFan
06-04-2010, 04:29 PM
Talent is easier to replace than chemistry. We have the former in spades; we have the leaders who know the equations for good chemistry, but it may take some trial and error before anyone knows how good this team can be, how resilient it can be, and how consistently it can be that good.

Good points. I am also curious about the team's ability to close out opponents this year. This is one area that I think Jon was so important last year. He was such a great foul shooter and so solid with the ball that when we went to stall ball he helped ensure we kept the ball and if he was fouled, (Nolan and Kyle were also great end of game FT shooters) did a great job converting. This was one of the areas that I was most impressed with last year's team. I hope they can continue to finish well this year.

_TheFakeJWill_
06-04-2010, 04:51 PM
To me no doubt the X Factors for next year will be Mason and Miles hands down. We all know what Nolan and Singler will being to the table. I have a feeling that Seth and Kyrie will def def live up to the hype... especially Kyrie. Andre will get be much more rounded (especially if he wants to get the same if not more PT)

We all seen what the emergence of Zoubs did last year. if the Plumlees can stay outa foul trouble, rebound the ball and give us a lil reliable scoring down low Duke is gonna be really really tough to beat. i look as us having about the same losses as last year

GO DUKE!

gumbomoop
06-04-2010, 05:49 PM
i look as us having about the same losses as last year

We might have an interesting discussion in this thread on this point. If you'd said, "I expect the same number of wins and losses," I'd sure have to take that, as 40 games would surely mean another FF at the least, and probably an NC game. It would be crazy not to want our team to get to 40 games next year. [Could someone tell me whether it's possible to get to 40 games and not be in NC game?]

But, just to play, uh, Devils' advocate [and maybe to adopt the persona of a crazy person], I'd also say I'll be surprised if Duke loses 5 games next season. I'm always surprised when we lose, so I'll be especially dumbfounded at every L next season, given our talent, enough experience, KI-wow, SC secret-X, and K-dude.

Again I ask: 40 games = NC game appearance? Anyone? Anyone?

House G
06-04-2010, 06:36 PM
I think our expectations are way too high. We are probably thinking using our emotions not our logic. An average team in the 64 team bracket would have a 1.56% chance winning it all. You would be considered a huge favorite if you have a close to 20% to win it all. And even with a 13-15% chance you are still probably ranked #1 out of 64 teams.

Here is my calculation, lets say if a team is a favorite in every match towards a championship. The chance of winning would be

First round .99
Second round .85
Sweet 16 .73
Elite eight .64
Final four .6
Champion .57


The probability of this favored team to win it all would be 13.4%. So if a team has a 20% of winning it all, it has to be head and shoulder above all other teams. I don't know if that will be the case next year with a freshmen point guard. I'd be happy to think we have anywhere close to a 15% chance.
Of course, these numbers are for an average team. Duke's odds will be better because we are always in the weakest regional, always have a bogus seed, and "get all the calls".

Osiagledknarf
06-04-2010, 09:00 PM
Without knowing much of Kyrie's recruiting, is he a one-and-done type of player? Because a back-court of Kyrie, Seth, and Dre would be fun to watch.

For all indications and what I have seen oh him, absolutely. He has great speed, can shoot the outside shot well, and is a terrific ball handler. He needs to work on his mid range game a bit, but that is really the only weakness with this kid. He will be able to get people involved and certainly has the ability to get Singler, Dre, Curry, Smith and the Plumlees involved in the offense to make it potentially downright explosive. They have him listed as #3 pick in the 2011 NBA Draft and is well known as one of the more talented players in this class.

I think you will get your wish some of this season... I think that Coach K will go with this lineup in offensive situations and when we "go small" and ti would put a lot of pressure on opposing teams.

Here are some video's of Kyrie:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6jOsvPw4qw

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LRn2ocI8RAA

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G53NJbcqEMY

arnie
06-04-2010, 10:39 PM
We might have an interesting discussion in this thread on this point. If you'd said, "I expect the same number of wins and losses," I'd sure have to take that, as 40 games would surely mean another FF at the least, and probably an NC game. It would be crazy not to want our team to get to 40 games next year. [Could someone tell me whether it's possible to get to 40 games and not be in NC game?]

But, just to play, uh, Devils' advocate [and maybe to adopt the persona of a crazy person], I'd also say I'll be surprised if Duke loses 5 games next season. I'm always surprised when we lose, so I'll be especially dumbfounded at every L next season, given our talent, enough experience, KI-wow, SC secret-X, and K-dude.

Again I ask: 40 games = NC game appearance? Anyone? Anyone?


We could do it by playing poorly in the regular season and having to play 4 games in the ACC tourney. 31 regular season games, 4 in the ACC tourney and then losing in the National semifinals = 40 games. Possible, but never probable.

bluedevil2012
06-04-2010, 11:32 PM
Dahntay was great, especially his senior year, but I remember hearing the same "best player on the floor at times" comments during his transfer year. Given that he averaged a respectable but not dominating 11ppg the following year, I'd say that probably wasn't entirely accurate.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that Dahntay led the team in PPG his senior year with 17ish. So it's hard to argue he was over-hyped.

Cockabeau
06-04-2010, 11:38 PM
seth curry imo will be tantamount to our transition from a very good team to a great team

gumbomoop
06-04-2010, 11:40 PM
We could do it by playing poorly in the regular season and having to play 4 games in the ACC tourney. 31 regular season games, 4 in the ACC tourney and then losing in the National semifinals = 40 games. Possible, but never probable.

Thanks. Ok, so I see how it's mathematically possible yet highly unlikely.

The reference to 31 reg season games -- Is there still in effect an NCAA rule that allows teams 27 games, plus participation in an early-season tourney with a 4-game maximum? Or are all teams simply allowed to schedule as they will, so long as they play 31 max? [I assume you know this stuff and won't have to research it. If by chance you'd have to research, forget it, I'll do the Google work myself.]

arnie
06-05-2010, 07:45 AM
Thanks. Ok, so I see how it's mathematically possible yet highly unlikely.

The reference to 31 reg season games -- Is there still in effect an NCAA rule that allows teams 27 games, plus participation in an early-season tourney with a 4-game maximum? Or are all teams simply allowed to schedule as they will, so long as they play 31 max? [I assume you know this stuff and won't have to research it. If by chance you'd have to research, forget it, I'll do the Google work myself.]

I don't know how the rules have changed regarding 31 games - it appears many teams play that many; so I don't think the 27 plus early season tourney 4-game max necessarily applies anymore.

ACCBBallFan
06-05-2010, 08:12 PM
While Seth Curry has the potential to be outstanding and Andre Dawkins can be very good, Duke perimeter is already in great shape with Kyrie-Nolan-Kyle trio.

To advance far into the NCAA tourney Duke instead needs the trio of two Plumlees and Ryan Kelly to be above average to very good, as Greg Newton post suggested for Kelly, not even that outstanding just very good, solid double digit rebounding or scoring from all three to complement an outstanding trio on the perimeter.

Newton_14
06-05-2010, 10:04 PM
While Seth Curry has the potential to be outstanding and Andre Dawkins can be very good, Duke perimeter is already in great shape with Kyrie-Nolan-Kyle trio.

To advance far into the NCAA tourney Duke instead needs the trio of two Plumlees and Ryan Kelly to be above average to very good, as Greg Newton post suggested for Kelly, not even that outstanding just very good, solid double digit rebounding or scoring from all three to complement an outstanding trio on the perimeter.

I totally agree. We need the four-some of Miles, Mason, Ryan, and Josh to be good enough that we can have 2 of them on the floor most all of the time. If they play well enough to allow similar rotations as we saw this past year, and allow us to only shift Kyle to the 4 when we want to, on our terms, rather than being forced to out of necessity, we will be a strong contender for the title.:D

Another thing that would do is give K a full arsenal of options on both offense and defense to the point where it would almost be ridiculous how could this team could be.

All I want for Christmas is for our 4 post players to be good enough to be impact players no matter who the competition is. If that happens, everything else will take care of itself.

Newton_14
06-05-2010, 10:22 PM
Dukes needs the Plumlees to be as effective overall as LT and Zoubs. They already were on offense, but on defense there was a huge gap, so much so that in the NC game they got relatively little playing time.


You know Sage, I felt the exact same way watching the game live that night. However, a couple Friday nights ago, I was able to sit down by myself without any distractions and watch it again. This time I came away feeling that both Miles and Mason actually played well that night and played more minutes than I first thought. Each had a couple of really good plays and limited their mistakes.

I screamed at Miles over the botched alley-oop in the first half watching it live, but on the replay I was able to see that he got hammered by Howard which caused the bobble.

It makes me feel even better about both Miles and Mason going into the new season. Miles needs to get stronger with his hands to cut down on the bobbles, drops, mishandles, etc, and get better at being able to play good positional defense without sacrificing his shot-blocking ability and vice-versa. Last year early he was great at shotblocking (Case in point UConn game) but not so great at position defense. In early January he got much better at being in the right position, but all of a sudden forgot how to block shots. He just needs to combine the two skills and be consistent at it.

Mason just needs to mature on both ends. All of the talent in the world is in this kid, but he has to use that talent more wisely and cut down on mistakes. Like his brother, he also needs to get better with position defense while also blocking shots. One final area for Mason is he has to hustle more. Especially getting back on defense. He says that watching Lance and Zoubs showed him that he has to get better at playing as hard as possible at all time. If he commits to doing just that he can be a beast.

Only 4 months and 10 days until practice starts!! (But before that happens we got some Football to kick butt in! Go Cut! and Go Duke!)

ACCBBallFan
06-06-2010, 02:08 AM
I know many are expecting a lot more from the Plumlees, but I think given their foul tendencies, it is reasonable to assume they each play 20-25 MPG effectively, for a total of 45 minutes, perhaps another 10 from Kyle at PF leaving 25 MPG for Ryan and Josh to share.

Again many are expecting double digit minutes from Josh and not much from Ryan while I think the reverse is true. I would say 15 MPG for Kelly is much too low and the other 10 MPG from Josh is on the high side.

Josh will be fine over his four year career at Duke but Kelly has higher HS rankings, an extra year in the Duke system, is taller, and will have progressed from the academic acknowledgement that he has to get stronger and in better condition, to putting that into practice over the summer.

Like the Plumlees he will have benefited from Lance's and Zoubs work ethic example.

Last year he has the pre-season flu/mono like weight loss symptoms that got him off to a slow start plus was not as good a fit with Jon Scheyer and Brian Zoubek as he will be with the quicker Kyrie Irving and a Plumlee.

Anything Duke gets out of Josh Hariston this year in games beyond what they got out of Ryan Kelly last year or Miles the year before will be a bonus.

Practice is another story. Without Felix, it is pretty much up to Josh, Ryan or a Plumlee to give Kyle the defensive challenge from a big in practice, whereas Andre provides a quicker but much smaller player to defend him.

Since there are only 4 bigs, Kyle gets that challenge either by playing some PF in practice or by the sophomore Todd Zafirovski logging some practice time as a forward/center, while Josh or Ryan defends Singler at WF.

Greg_Newton
06-06-2010, 04:12 PM
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that Dahntay led the team in PPG his senior year with 17ish. So it's hard to argue he was over-hyped.

Well, if you consider that people were murmuring the same "best player on the floor at times" things during his transfer year, it's not that hard. Dahntay averaged 11ppg in 2001-02, the year following his transfer year - when the practice floor included Jason Williams, Shane Battier, Carlos Boozer, Nates James and Chris Duhon. I doubt he was even close to the best player that year, especially given he was only the 4th or 5th best player the next year.

It's not hard to imagine why practice reports of transfers get exaggerated - practice/pickup is their only outlet to play at all, they're never beat up from the wear and tear the season, and they're often the "star" player on the second team in practice. Plus, it makes for a sexy rumor.

My point was that, like Dahntay in his junior year, we probably shouldn't be expecting Seth to be one of our all-around best players.