Josh Hairston

[Daniel tosh]

This guy really intrigues me,I just want to know what you guys think he will bring to our team this year.Does anyone know who you could compare his game too?All I really know about him is,that he is a faceup 4 man that can also score inside.Thanks for your input.

[Saratoga2]

This guy really intrigues me,I just want to know what you guys think he will bring to our team this year.Does anyone know who you could compare his game too?All I really know about him is,that he is a faceup 4 man that can also score inside.Thanks for your input.

He is kind of slightly built at this time, kind of like Lance. He seems to have very good court awareness, passes well and can hit a square up jumper. His rebounding is good. He has quick enough feet to be a good defender, but has some work to do along that line. I see him as playing primarily the 4 this year as a sub and getting 15 minutes a game. This kid will be a very solid player and should develop well this year.

[CrazieDUMB]

I feel like between Seth and Kyrie this guy has kind of been lost in the shuffle, at least not a lot of people are talking about him. However, he will have to get some solid minutes, as our big rotation only has three other players (four if Singler spends time at the 4). He and Ryan will be the primary backups, and when they come in a Plumlee will switch to the 5.

From what I hear he's a pretty good face-up scorer and can drive well from the outside. He plays "with great energy on both ends of the floor" (ESPN), which is a must for breaking into a K rotation. He can also run the floor and is great in transition, which should work well with our up-tempo pace next year. He's also good at grabbing boards and immediately starting the break, with good outlet passing skills but can also finish above the rim.

Apparently he also has a frame that's "suited for adding muscle", whatever that means. He's a fierce player who plays with strength, so if K needs him to be a strong four or even an undersized five, I can see him putting in the work to do so. He already has the good footwork habits with his back to the basket to complement his high post forte.

As far as weaknesses, apparantly he tends to get frustrated, and his defense suffers when he tries too hard not to foul. He will have to reign that in. Some say his weakness is his defensive prowess, but that may be because he's such a good scorer that's never been his priority. "Ironically, his true potential may lie on the defensive end of the floor... With the size to guard the post and the lateral quickness/length to keep people in front of him on the perimeter he has the ability to guard multiple positions."

So, kinda like Lance.

[airowe]

He is kind of slightly built at this time, kind of like Lance. He seems to have very good court awareness, passes well and can hit a square up jumper. His rebounding is good. He has quick enough feet to be a good defender, but has some work to do along that line. I see him as playing primarily the 4 this year as a sub and getting 15 minutes a game. This kid will be a very solid player and should develop well this year.

I think 15 mpg might be a bit high, but Josh can play both the 3 and the 4, giving him more chances to earn minutes. He's been working on his handle and outside shot a lot this year at Montrose and has put on some weight to grow to 220-225 lbs. Coach k wants him to be at around 230 and to play a Battier/Singler type role. I expect him to play more as a PF, but he certainly has the footspeed and quickness to play the 3 if called upon.

[gumbomoop]

Josh seems a fine prospect, but probably not a major impact player his frosh year. Here's my reasoning: the MPs are the 2 players capable of being the 5. If one assumes, as do I, that fast pace and foul problems will limit each of MPs to 25-28 mpg, that means that MP2 will play the 4 perhaps 12-15 mpg.

So who else will play the 4 for those other 25-28 mpg? RK, JH, and KS. I have inferred from other threads that some posters believe KS will play a good bit at the 4. I can see, but don't yet buy, that view; I think that will happen only if both RK and JH are found totally wanting at the 4. My bet is on RK to break out and to get more mpg than JH. It just seems likely that RK has benefited from a year in K's system; further, RK has multiple skills, which he was unable to showcase last season as he was behind the other 4 Bigs.

Maybe JH is more skilled than RK; not much evidence yet on either player. All I can use to judge is seeing RK show promise last year, and a single viewing of JH in a televised HS game. I could see JH is going to be a good college player, but in that single game, I thought his intuitive feel for defense is a bit lacking. He was regularly left lurching at an opponent who ball-faked him and got by him to the basket.

My semi-educated guess is that RK has an extra skill or 2 over JH right now. RK is going to be a good passer into the post. He can shoot, block shots, and, although I suspect this is a minority viewpoint, rebound just fine. I think JH is developing a good outside shot and may become a solid rebounder, too. But I doubt he's ready defensively, I don't think he's anywhere near the passer RK is, and he's a frosh.

JH will become a very good player, in time. I'll be surprised if his time is this year, on a loaded team. I'd guess he'll get 7-8 mpg early in season, but will play only spot minutes late season. But if he's a surprisingly strong defender and rebounder, he'll take away some of RK's 15-18 mpg.

[chrisheery]

I stood next to Josh at the Carolina at Duke game and he is noticably "thicker" than Lance was as a freshman, and maybe even is now. That is not to say he is stronger, just that he has more natural size. I watched him play a couple games on TV, and he is pretty quick for a guy with his size. He is not a great leaper, but he can definitely shoot and served as his team's primary ball-handler on more than a couple occasions each game when their PG needed a break and the backup PG was being hounded. He is much much more skilled than I thought he would be. If he can convert his size to muscle-size, he can play the 4 pretty easily. I think if he does that, though, he can play step out 4 or in a large lineup 3. I doubt he will be able to carry his game directly into college speed right away, but I think he will be a very good player for us before his career is over. His style of play kinda reminds me of Roshown McCleod, but his body shape is a bit more like a not-quite so jacked Boozer (but with the potential to gain weight and muscle to be closer to Boozer due to his frame).

* Addition: I think Josh is very skilled, but I don't think he is more skilled than RK. Ryan Kelly is an extremely skilled big man. Just needs the meat to go with the skill.

[Cockabeau]

A more skilled,less athletic version of Lance

[chrisheery]

A more skilled,less athletic version of Lance

Not sure why people still think Lance is super-athletic. He was a tremendous competitor and leader, but when did he ever do anything that made you say "wow?" Josh may be less athletic, but only slightly.

[COYS]

Not sure why people still think Lance is super-athletic. He was a tremendous competitor and leader, but when did he ever do anything that made you say "wow?" Josh may be less athletic, but only slightly.

If you limit athletic ability to jumping ability, Lance may not have been super-athletic, but he is extremely quick for a guy his size and has truly impressive lateral quickness. He didn't really have the ball-handling skills to put his quickness to use on offense, where people generally judge athletic ability, but he was ferocious on defense. Anyone remember him locking down the ridiculously quick Ish Smith from Wake in the final critical five minutes of that epic game in Cameron in 2009? Lance at 6-8 was not only hanging with, but shutting down one of the quickest point guards in college basketball. His quickness allowed him to rotate on defense, drawing charges etc. He didn't block shots 12 feet above the ground nor did he throw down too many monster slams, but Lance definitely had exceptional athleticism.

[gumbomoop]

Not sure why people still think Lance is super-athletic. He was a tremendous competitor and leader, but when did he ever do anything that made you say "wow?" Josh may be less athletic, but only slightly.

I agree with this. As I said in earlier post, I've seen JH but a single time. We've all seen LT many times. JH should be a much better player on O than LT, as he has better handle, better shot, including 3-pt range, better footwork. But on D, wow, LT determined [and I do mean determined] by his junior year that his role would be as a stopper on D. If JH combines solid skills on O with LT-like [or anywhere close] determination on D, we are in for a treat.

[mr. synellinden]

Not sure why people still think Lance is super-athletic. He was a tremendous competitor and leader, but when did he ever do anything that made you say "wow?" Josh may be less athletic, but only slightly.

Well, I agree that he is not SUPER athletic. But I did say wow or scream something akin to that after his rebound/putback (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mg9dQOKNYc4)and the foul late in the second half against Baylor.

[chrisheery]

If you limit athletic ability to jumping ability, Lance may not have been super-athletic, but he is extremely quick for a guy his size and has truly impressive lateral quickness. He didn't really have the ball-handling skills to put his quickness to use on offense, where people generally judge athletic ability, but he was ferocious on defense. Anyone remember him locking down the ridiculously quick Ish Smith from Wake in the final critical five minutes of that epic game in Cameron in 2009? Lance at 6-8 was not only hanging with, but shutting down one of the quickest point guards in college basketball. His quickness allowed him to rotate on defense, drawing charges etc. He didn't block shots 12 feet above the ground nor did he throw down too many monster slams, but Lance definitely had exceptional athleticism.

Fair enough. I guess we disagree a little on his lateral quickness, but he was athletic in that way. I never thought his lateral quickness was off the charts, I just thought was willing to do the work other guys his size weren't. I know he stopped Ish Smith, but I don't think it was all quickness that did it. I think his length bothered Smith too.

Anyway, Josh has similar quickness from the couple times I have seen him play. What I don't know is whether he can harness it like Lance did and combine it with an absolute will to win like Lance did. Those things are required to play the kind of incredible defense Lance did for us. Defense requires a baseline level of athleticism, but after that, it is all desire, awareness and positioning.

[chrisheery]

Well, I agree that he is not SUPER athletic. But I did say wow or scream something akin to that after his rebound/putback (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mg9dQOKNYc4)and the foul late in the second half against Baylor.

I did, but it was more in surprise that it was Lance that did it. I had watched him for 4 years and he never made plays like that. Also, to be fair, he barely got it down. Great play, no doubt, but remarkable athleticism? Tough to point to one play in a 4 year career to say that he is an amazing atlete.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I did, but it was more in surprise that it was Lance that did it. I had watched him for 4 years and he never made plays like that. Also, to be fair, he barely got it down. Great play, no doubt, but remarkable athleticism? Tough to point to one play in a 4 year career to say that he is an amazing atlete.

Completely agree. That play came out of left field. It was very non-Lance-esque. Lance was a great defender and great leader, but great athlete doesn't fit Lance at all.

[Kedsy]

Well, if you remember a story from WRAL not too long ago (http://www.wralsportsfan.com/duke/story/7629898/), Josh views himself as the successor to Lance:


Incoming freshman Joshua Hairston, a 6-foot-8 215 pound forward from Rockville, Maryland, hopes to make that loss a little less noticeable. He says he can fit into a role similar to Thomas'.

"I can actually. A lot of people have been comparing me to Lance and say I'll be doing a lot of the same things he was doing," Hairston told The Insiders Wednesday on 620 The Buzz. "That's just one thing I tried to watch. I tried to watch what Lance did, tried to watch what Kyle did. Coach [Krzyzewski] says he kind of visualizes me doing that same thing. I just want to start learning early, and just watch them and see what they do."

And he says Coach K views him the same way. So in high school, defensive intensity may have been a weakness, but at least he says that's what he's working on now.


Josh seems a fine prospect, but probably not a major impact player his frosh year. Here's my reasoning: the MPs are the 2 players capable of being the 5. If one assumes, as do I, that fast pace and foul problems will limit each of MPs to 25-28 mpg, that means that MP2 will play the 4 perhaps 12-15 mpg.

* * *

JH will become a very good player, in time. I'll be surprised if his time is this year, on a loaded team. I'd guess he'll get 7-8 mpg early in season, but will play only spot minutes late season. But if he's a surprisingly strong defender and rebounder, he'll take away some of RK's 15-18 mpg.

Contrary to thinking that Miles and Mason will be "limited" to 25 to 28 mpg, I think your minute projection for the MPs is on the high side. For comparison, look at the following minutes played by Duke big men:

Carlos Boozer, FR, 23.7
Carlos Boozer, SO, 25.6
Carlos Boozer, JR, 28.4

Shelden Williams, FR, 19.2
Shelden Williams, SO, 26.0

Elton Brand, FR, 23.5
Elton Brand, SO, 29.3

As good as Mason and Miles are, they aren't close to Boozer, Williams, or Brand (even when those guys were freshmen). And those guys barely got into the range you project for the MPs (at least until Shelden's junior and senior years, but those teams each only had two big men who could play, so Shelden's big minutes were out of necessity).

Personally, I think Miles and Mason will be looking at 20 to 23 minutes a game. Maybe a little more for Mason and a little less for Miles, but basically I expect them to combine for 40 to 45 mpg. So even if Kyle plays 10 mpg at the "4" (which I think may be a tad high but isn't an unreasonable estimate) there's still a good 25 to 30 minutes for Ryan and Josh to split. If Ryan takes 17 or 18 of those minutes, it leaves 8 to 12 for Josh pretty much all year.

Now, of course if Josh fails to play good defense, then I think you're right and his minutes will drop off. But since that's what he's already working on, I have hopes that he'll be able to maintain his 8 to 12 for most of the season.

As far as Ryan goes, I would be surprised if he gets as few as 15 minutes a game. I would not be surprised if he ends up with more minutes than Miles. Again it depends on if he can get his defense up to snuff but if he does I could see him getting 20+ minutes and Miles getting 17 or 18. Thus if Josh eats into anybody's minutes, I would see him taking Miles's minutes away, rather than Ryan's. Although obviously it's all guesswork at this point. If Miles takes a quantum leap forward like he did between his freshman and sophomore years, then he'll keep his minutes up all year. The good news is all these suppositions are based on the fact that we have an awful lot of good players on next year's roster.

[sagegrouse]

Contrary to thinking that Miles and Mason will be "limited" to 25 to 28 mpg, I think your minute projection for the MPs is on the high side. For comparison, look at the following minutes played by Duke big men:

Carlos Boozer, FR, 23.7
Carlos Boozer, SO, 25.6
Carlos Boozer, JR, 28.4

Shelden Williams, FR, 19.2
Shelden Williams, SO, 26.0

Elton Brand, FR, 23.5
Elton Brand, SO, 29.3

As good as Mason and Miles are, they aren't close to Boozer, Williams, or Brand (even when those guys were freshmen). And those guys barely got into the range you project for the MPs (at least until Shelden's junior and senior years, but those teams each only had two big men who could play, so Shelden's big minutes were out of necessity).



Just a darn minute! Brand, Boozer, and Shelden got to play when the cupboard was bare. They may have played more than MP1 and MP2 in comparable circumstances, but don't be too sure about it!


The coast was clear for Shelden when Boozer left for the NBA after the 2002 season and the only returning big men were Sanders and Horvath.

The coast was clear for Boozer when Elton left for the NBA after the 1999 seaon and there were NO returning big men, unless you count Matt Christensen, who had been on a Mormon mission for two years.

And when Elton arrived, the only returning big men were Domazalski and McLeod.

sagegrouse
'Gee. The accent seems to be on the second syllable of my name in this post'

[jjh1080]

From what I remember, from Lance's early years, the game was faster and more physical that he could handle or thought it would be. Not sure which it was but his high school playing did not translate into his college playing.

That is why, when talking about a freshman, one must always consider what they have done to date has been against high school players. Most of the time Josh might have been one of the biggest guys on the court and next year he might be the average size. For most freshman the game is totally, totally different at the college level, no one knows how they will handle the next level. Some freshman are ready for it and some are not.

Case in point, JJ was one of the best college players but in the NBA it has taken a while for him to come around. This year might have been his best so far but most people would have thought by now he would have had a much better NBA career. The game is different and no one really knows how they will adjust to it at the next level.

[Olympic Fan]

Not to take this thread off topic, but since we were talking about Lance and his athleticsm ... I wanted to add my 3 cents worth:

The vague term athleticism includes a lot of things ... what about hand-eye coordination? Is that an athletic skill? Just read where scientists at Columbia University tested Babe Ruth in 1921 and found that he had the greatest hand-eye coordination and the best controlled muscle response (timing) of anyone they had never tested. Does that mean his athleticism was off-the-charts?

Rating Lance in the areas I would rate as athletic skills (judged against other 6-8 college basketball players, not the general population):

Strength -- below average (he was stronger than me, John Henson and probably you, but weaker than 90 percent of the 6-8 NCAA Div 1 players)
Jumping ability (both maximum height and repeat jump ability): Average
Hand-eye coordination: below average (based on shooting and ballhandling skills)
Lateral quickness: Very much above average (again, compared to other 6-8 players). If it were just length that bothered Ish Smith (the quickest player in the ACC last year), then a lot of 6-8 players would have been out there playing him ... it was the combination of length and quickness.
Flat-out speed: Very, VERY much above average ... did you ever watch Lance at the point of the fullcourt press trap the ball in the corner under the opponents' basket, then hustle back to get his man under the basket when the opponent was able pass out of the trap and push the ball up? That was a wow factor and Lance did it time and time again.

I need to see more of Josh Hairston to compare his skill set. I'm sure he's stronger than Lance (at least than Lance was early in his career) and will get stronger under the tuteledge of Will Stephens. His hand-eye skills seem better. I don't know about quickness and speed.

I'm sure there are a differences -- but in the end Lance did a great job of maximizing his strengths and hiding his weaknesses and I feel sure they'll do the same with Josh.

I'm fairly confident he'll be a major contributor down the road. As for next year? I guess I'd guess that he'll play more than Ryan did last year and less than Mason did. But that's just a guess.

[Kedsy]

Just a darn minute! Brand, Boozer, and Shelden got to play when the cupboard was bare. They may have played more than MP1 and MP2 in comparable circumstances, but don't be too sure about it!


The coast was clear for Shelden when Boozer left for the NBA after the 2002 season and the only returning big men were Sanders and Horvath.

The coast was clear for Boozer when Elton left for the NBA after the 1999 seaon and there were NO returning big men, unless you count Matt Christensen, who had been on a Mormon mission for two years.

And when Elton arrived, the only returning big men were Domazalski and McLeod.

sagegrouse
'Gee. The accent seems to be on the second syllable of my name in this post'

Well, that's my point. If I understand what you're saying then you seem to agree with me. If those guys in those circumstances only played low- to mid-twenties minutes, then Miles and Mason will probably not be playing as much as 25 to 28.

[Kedsy]

The vague term athleticism includes a lot of things ... what about hand-eye coordination? Is that an athletic skill? Just read where scientists at Columbia University tested Babe Ruth in 1921 and found that he had the greatest hand-eye coordination and the best controlled muscle response (timing) of anyone they had never tested. Does that mean his athleticism was off-the-charts?

You don't think Babe Ruth was athletic? Wow. I obviously never saw him play, but from reading about him and looking at his stats I think he was amazingly athletic. He apparently didn't take care of his body very well, but that doesn't make him less athletic.

[gumbomoop]

Contrary to thinking that Miles and Mason will be "limited" to 25 to 28 mpg, I think your minute projection for the MPs is on the high side.

Personally, I think Miles and Mason will be looking at 20 to 23 minutes a game. Maybe a little more for Mason and a little less for Miles, but basically I expect them to combine for 40 to 45 mpg. So even if Kyle plays 10 mpg at the "4" (which I think may be a tad high but isn't an unreasonable estimate) there's still a good 25 to 30 minutes for Ryan and Josh to split. If Ryan takes 17 or 18 of those minutes, it leaves 8 to 12 for Josh pretty much all year.

Now, of course if Josh fails to play good defense, then I think you're right and his minutes will drop off. But since that's what he's already working on, I have hopes that he'll be able to maintain his 8 to 12 for most of the season.

As far as Ryan goes, I would be surprised if he gets as few as 15 minutes a game. I would not be surprised if he ends up with more minutes than Miles. Again it depends on if he can get his defense up to snuff but if he does I could see him getting 20+ minutes and Miles getting 17 or 18. Thus if Josh eats into anybody's minutes, I would see him taking Miles's minutes away, rather than Ryan's. Although obviously it's all guesswork at this point. If Miles takes a quantum leap forward like he did between his freshman and sophomore years, then he'll keep his minutes up all year. The good news is all these suppositions are based on the fact that we have an awful lot of good players on next year's roster.

No fair using facts.

I accept your correction and I like your argument, mostly. Yes, I can see that high 20s for both MPs must surely be unlikely. I will say that I tend to distinguish early- from late-season numbers; and on that count, I'd predict the MPs do get close to mid-20s-mpg as season wears on. Again, partly this will all season long depend on foul problems.

Your correction to my historical [not to say historic] amnesia then takes us back to the issue[s] at hand: mpg for JH, RK, and KS at the 4. I'll respond to your estimates in terms of my agreement/slight disagreement:

KS - I agree that KS will not play much 4, unless, as I posted above, both RK and JH aren't ready. In fact, whatever KS's overall season mpg at the 4, I'd predict that number will be inflated by his time there in late-game-protect-lead-situations, where he is better FT-shooter than either of MPs.

RK - Also agree, enthusiastically so, for I'm high on RK for breakout year. I don't recall any posters who think RK will get as many mpg as do you, and I. I will say I have one slightly weird concern re RK: he has the skills, but I'm clueless re his ability to keep up with KI's breakneck pace. Just didn't see him enough last year, don't know his HS experience, and he doesn't strike me immediately as a runner. But he can rebound, so maybe the pace issue is a non-issue.

JH - Slight demurral here: because we have 4 guys who can/will play the 4 - MP2, RK, JS, JH - it seems JH is bottom of that list and a frosh with good potential but not KI-obvious skills. Given all that, I will be surprised to see him for more than 5 mpg by late-season. But he'll get his chances, esp if MPs remain foul-prone, if RK disappoints [you and me, at least], and/or if a now-militant KS says to K, "Hell no, I'm not playing the 4. You and I both know I came back to win it again as the nation's best SF." That Kyle: he may look like a choirboy, but once K created that secret mean-monster, well, now K's just gonna have to deal with the consequences.

[Hallucination over, back to reality] Agree, finally, that we got more good news than even We the Entitled could possibly deserve.

[roywhite]

RK - Also agree, enthusiastically so, for I'm high on RK for breakout year. I don't recall any posters who think RK will get as many mpg as do you, and I. I will say I have one slightly weird concern re RK: he has the skills, but I'm clueless re his ability to keep up with KI's breakneck pace. Just didn't see him enough last year, don't know his HS experience, and he doesn't strike me immediately as a runner. But he can rebound, so maybe the pace issue is a non-issue.



A reasonable concern about Kelly, IMO. I recall seeing a post-high school all-star game where John Henson was flying down the court and Ryan was lagging in pursuit. I've been a skeptic about Henson, but he may be a tough match-up for us in some ways. Perhaps that would favor some more time for Hairston?

[olddevil]

I think we will be pleasantly surprised by Josh. He went to Montrose this year to learn how to be an inside player and he delivered. He has the potential to be quite strong and a good rebounder. He can't junp as high as the Plumlees but he has a good feeing for the inside game now. He already has perimeter skills and he just might fit well with our fast pace style next year.

[airowe]

He went to Montrose this year to learn how to be an inside player and he delivered.

Everything I've read, including quotes from Josh himself and Montrose's coach suggest that Josh transferred there to become more of an outside player.

[gumbomoop]

A reasonable concern about Kelly, IMO. I recall seeing a post-high school all-star game where John Henson was flying down the court and Ryan was lagging in pursuit. I've been a skeptic about Henson, but he may be a tough match-up for us in some ways. Perhaps that would favor some more time for Hairston?

Well, now I can see I'm about to convince myself that RK's got some big flaw. In my post above, which you reference in your tag quote, I worried just a little about RK's ability to keep up - on O - with KI's pace. I ignored getting back on D. I am comforted by the fact that few teams have a Henson-gazelle with which our guy will have to contend, pace-wise. But it is conceivable that a smarter-faster Henson will present a particular problem, 2 or more times next season.

Otherwise, "go Ryan!" And v. UNC, revised to, "Ryan, go!"

[whereinthehellami]

I like Josh Hairston. Great kid with good skills and decent size. But he lacks ACC level strength and speed. If he sees over 10 MPG in the frontcourt it will be because Duke has major problems down there. If I'm Josh I try to carve out my own role rather than try to fill Lance's. I don't think Josh has the foot speed to do what Lance did on defense. I think Josh has the potential to be more of a specialist on offense than on defense, kind of the opposite of Lance.

[Kedsy]

I will say I have one slightly weird concern re RK: he has the skills, but I'm clueless re his ability to keep up with KI's breakneck pace. Just didn't see him enough last year, don't know his HS experience, and he doesn't strike me immediately as a runner. But he can rebound, so maybe the pace issue is a non-issue.

I agree I may be overly enthusiastic about Ryan. It all comes down to defense. If he can keep up and play good defense he will play a lot. If he can't then he won't. I'm not as worried about his ability to run the floor. On offense he can be part of the "secondary break." On defense, perhaps he's vulnerable to a team playing at a breakneck pace where all five (or at least four) players race down the floor after every rebound, but how many teams we face are going to be able to play that way? All Ryan has to do is keep up with the slowest guy on the other team and then be able to switch back once they get into the half court.


JH - Slight demurral here: because we have 4 guys who can/will play the 4 - MP2, RK, JS, JH - it seems JH is bottom of that list and a frosh with good potential but not KI-obvious skills. Given all that, I will be surprised to see him for more than 5 mpg by late-season. But he'll get his chances, esp if MPs remain foul-prone, if RK disappoints [you and me, at least]...


Well, we agree he's at the bottom of the list, but if I'm right about the MPs minutes and Kyle's minutes at the 4, and if you think I'm on the high side for Ryan, then Josh is the only person left to get those minutes. Again, if he can play decent D I think he's in line for at least 8 mpg, even toward the end of the year. Obviously if he can't or won't play decent defense then I agree with you. If K decides to shrink the rotation to 8 guys rather than 9, then Josh is the most likely candidate to be squeezed out.

[gumbomoop]

I agree I may be overly enthusiastic about Ryan. It all comes down to defense. If he can keep up and play good defense he will play a lot. If he can't then he won't. I'm not as worried about his ability to run the floor. On offense he can be part of the "secondary break." On defense, perhaps he's vulnerable to a team playing at a breakneck pace where all five (or at least four) players race down the floor after every rebound, but how many teams we face are going to be able to play that way? All Ryan has to do is keep up with the slowest guy on the other team and then be able to switch back once they get into the half court.

Well, we agree he's at the bottom of the list, but if I'm right about the MPs minutes and Kyle's minutes at the 4, and if you think I'm on the high side for Ryan, then Josh is the only person left to get those minutes. Again, if he can play decent D I think he's in line for at least 8 mpg, even toward the end of the year. Obviously if he can't or won't play decent defense then I agree with you. If K decides to shrink the rotation to 8 guys rather than 9, then Josh is the most likely candidate to be squeezed out.

Yes, we're on same page. As I seem to think too often about weird possibilities - maybe because K thinks about everything, everything - and because I assume Duke will have a fair number of protect-lead-end-games, I do wonder who will be the 5 guys on the floor last 2-3 minutes. If it were to be, literally, the 5 best FT shooters, that might be KS and 4 guards! But if K needs 2 Bigs out there, then it must be KS and the best FT shooter among the other 4 Bigs.

[Kedsy]

Yes, we're on same page. As I seem to think too often about weird possibilities - maybe because K thinks about everything, everything - and because I assume Duke will have a fair number of protect-lead-end-games, I do wonder who will be the 5 guys on the floor last 2-3 minutes. If it were to be, literally, the 5 best FT shooters, that might be KS and 4 guards! But if K needs 2 Bigs out there, then it must be KS and the best FT shooter among the other 4 Bigs.

Depends on the game situation, obviously, but what you're saying makes sense. If Andre can defend the "3" he's a perfect late-game guy because of his three-point and free throw prowess.

[fgb]

A reasonable concern about Kelly, IMO. I recall seeing a post-high school all-star game where John Henson was flying down the court and Ryan was lagging in pursuit. I've been a skeptic about Henson, but he may be a tough match-up for us in some ways. Perhaps that would favor some more time for Hairston?

ryan doesn't need to beat henson down court; he only needs to beat the ball. which as i understand it isn't going to be moving up the court too fast in chapel hill next season.

[airowe]

Not sure if you have read this yet:

http://usabasketball.com/news.php?news_page=10_mu18_q_a_hairston

[Cockabeau]

Not sure why people still think Lance is super-athletic. He was a tremendous competitor and leader, but when did he ever do anything that made you say "wow?" Josh may be less athletic, but only slightly.


Are you jking? Lance had nice hops and above average lateral quickness for his size.

[billyj]

Yeah lance was a way better prospect (at least by ranking) coming out of high school. He's also probably one of the most athletic one on the team.

I'd be happy if Hairson is close to as good as Lance was.

[MChambers]

Not sure if you have read this yet:

http://usabasketball.com/news.php?news_page=10_mu18_q_a_hairston
Josh sounds like a great kid, with lots of interests beyond basketball. And Greybeard will be ecstatic when he learns that Josh played soccer for 8 years. ;)

[SilkyJ]

Are you jking? Lance had nice hops and above average lateral quickness for his size.

got it. so "nice" leaping ability and "above average" quickness = super-athletic. Man we are lucky to have you teaching us these things.

[Olympic Fan]

You don't think Babe Ruth was athletic? Wow. I obviously never saw him play, but from reading about him and looking at his stats I think he was amazingly athletic. He apparently didn't take care of his body very well, but that doesn't make him less athletic.

I obviously DO think he was an amazing athlete. I mentioned him to point out the absurdity of the way "athleticism" is used to describe somebody with quickness, speed or great hops (none of which were Ruthian attributes -- almost he did run fairly well when he was in shape).

[Kedsy]

Yeah lance was a way better prospect (at least by ranking) coming out of high school. He's also probably one of the most athletic one on the team.

I'd be happy if Hairson is close to as good as Lance was.

According to the RSCI (composite of several recruiting services), Lance was ranked #20 coming out of high school. Josh was ranked #27 in last summer's RSCI. The "final" RSCI rankings haven't been released yet but my guess is he'll have gone up a couple of notches. But even if he doesn't, I don't think the #20 prospect is "a way better prospect" than the #27 prospect.


I obviously DO think he was an amazing athlete. I mentioned him to point out the absurdity of the way "athleticism" is used to describe somebody with quickness, speed or great hops (none of which were Ruthian attributes -- almost he did run fairly well when he was in shape).

OK, good. Sorry I misunderstood you.

[hedevil]

I'm eager to see this kid develop over four years. I see him as being a better scoring threat than Lance was over a four year career at Duke. Defensively? We'll see.

I do agree that Josh needs to worry about being Josh, and forget about filling Lance's shoes. From what I've read about this kid, he seems to be making great strides in his game. To be really good you have to have potential, and this kid has it. If coach K can mold him for four years (I assume he's a four year guy), this kid has the potential to be really really good for Duke.

I don't feel this way about every player that we land, but I really feel like this kid could be that secret weapon that no one saw coming when he got to Duke. Just a gut feeling.

[SilkyJ]

I don't feel this way about every player that we land, but I really feel like this kid could be that secret weapon that no one saw coming when he got to Duke. Just a gut feeling.

Are you in any way involved with basketball professionally or semi-professionally, i.e. as a coach, analyst, writer, etc. and have you ever seen Josh play live?

[lotusland]

I think Kyle will play signifcant minutes at 4 next year due to the makeup of this years team. Faster generally means smaller and we have an abundance of tallented guards. Dre's needs to play 3 to get minutes if Seth and Kyrie live up to their billing. Nolan should get close to 30 mpg. Losing Felix helps Dre RK and Josh a little. Foul trouble or injuries for the MPs could be another facto but otherwise Josh and RK probably avg 7 mpg IMO.

[Cockabeau]

got it. so "nice" leaping ability and "above average" quickness = super-athletic. Man we are lucky to have you teaching us these things.

I never said he was "super athletic". Lance is more athletic than Josh. thats all i said.

[SilkyJ]

I never said he was "super athletic". Lance is more athletic than Josh. thats all i said.

Actually, no you didn't. In fact you didn't even compare Josh to Lance, you only commented on Lance's athleticism.

In response to Chris saying he didn't understand why people thought lance was super-athletic, you said "are you jking [sic]."

You then went on to describe what you thought on LANCE's athleticism. No mention of Josh. I'm not sure what other part of his post you could have been referring to, but given that you don't spend much time on your posts you probably just meant to say something else, but did a poor job of it. That's my guess.


Not sure why people still think Lance is super-athletic. He was a tremendous competitor and leader, but when did he ever do anything that made you say "wow?" Josh may be less athletic, but only slightly.


Are you jking? Lance had nice hops and above average lateral quickness for his size.

[Cockabeau]

Actually, no you didn't. In fact you didn't even compare Josh to Lance, you only commented on Lance's athleticism.

In response to Chris saying he didn't understand why people thought lance was super-athletic, you said "are you jking [sic]."

You then went on to describe what you thought on LANCE's athleticism. No mention of Josh. I'm not sure what other part of his post you could have been referring to, but given that you don't spend much time on your posts you probably just meant to say something else, but did a poor job of it. That's my guess.


My original post stated thatJosh is a more skilled,less athletic Lance Thomas. This analysis came from the man himself, Telep. If you have a problem with that then take it up with him.

[Devilsfan]

Don't we potentially already have that in RKelly?

[ChicagoCrazy84]

My original post stated thatJosh is a more skilled,less athletic Lance Thomas. This analysis came from the man himself, Telep. If you have a problem with that then take it up with him.


I know I'll be beating a dead horse here a little bit, but that scares me due to the fact that Lance to me was not all that athletic. He was very good at running the floor and playing on the ball defense, but when it came down to playing inside, he was a tad irritating. I don't know why, but it seemed to me that him trying to score inside, he would get rejected 75% of the time. I don't know if it was his lack of size, lack of leaping ability, body control, or what, but all of that almost coincides to lack of athleticism. Not saying that we need Hairston to be able to finish inside (we'll have plenty of that) but I want a guy that is able to hold his own offensively and defensively in the interior when called upon.

[Greg_Newton]

My original post stated thatJosh is a more skilled,less athletic Lance Thomas. This analysis came from the man himself, Telep. If you have a problem with that then take it up with him.

Either way, I'm not sure if that's true. Lance was probably quicker, but Hairston would throw down alley-oops in halfcourt sets for Montrose. Maybe Lance just had small hands or something, but Hairston is probably a better finisher around the rim, at the very least.

He also has a much stronger lower-body base.

[SilkyJ]

My original post stated thatJosh is a more skilled,less athletic Lance Thomas. This analysis came from the man himself, Telep. If you have a problem with that then take it up with him.

I obviously wasn't commenting on your original post. I was commenting on the post I quoted, where you still haven't explained yourself.

I couldn't care less about the comparison of Lance and Josh. I'm commenting on how you've characterized Lance's athletic ability, but you're not grasping this.

[Cockabeau]

Quickness off the ball and jumping ability.

Josh has a far superior shot with range.

However,like lance Josh really doen't have a handle nor does the kid possess any inside moves.

I like him but at the same time I am struggling to see how he takes minutes away from Kelley

[Newton_14]

I think Kyle will play signifcant minutes at 4 next year due to the makeup of this years team. Faster generally means smaller and we have an abundance of tallented guards. Dre's needs to play 3 to get minutes if Seth and Kyrie live up to their billing. Nolan should get close to 30 mpg. Losing Felix helps Dre RK and Josh a little. Foul trouble or injuries for the MPs could be another facto but otherwise Josh and RK probably avg 7 mpg IMO.

I'll address the two issues in reverse order and then comment on Josh.

The fastest team in the country in 2008/09 won the National Championship with 2 true bigs on the floor at all times and wings that were good size.

FrontCourt
hans- 6'9
Thompson- 6'8
Davis- 6'10

BackCourt
Green 6'6
Ellington 6'5
Graves 6'6
Lawless- 5'11

His first 2 years, Singler bulked up and carried extra weight to enable his body to handle the banging needed to guard 4's and 5's inside. Last year he redefined his body by dropping weight and working on lateral quickness and ball handling to prepare his body and skill set to play exclusively on the wing. This was also in preparation to play his natural position of Small Forward in the NBA. The end result of that was the Final Four MOP on the National Champion, and arguably, Kyle was the best Small Forward in college. Coming back for his Sr year he is most likely hands down the best Small Forward in the college game.

To play "significant minutes at the 4" and do so effectively, Kyle would need to transform his body back to where it was his sophomore and freshman year, and focus again on being an interior player. I really doubt Kyle is interested in going backward.

There will be times (like last 5 minutes protecting a lead) where Kyle will slide over to the 4. If it ends up he plays "significant" minutes at the 4 it means something has gone terrible wrong with the other bigs on the roster, and the effectiveness of our team defense and rebounding will not be very good.

I have high confidence that Miles, Mason, Ryan, and Josh will do a very nice job manning the post positions. Miles, Mason, and Ryan should all improve from last year, with Mason and Ryan likely to make fairly big jumps in their games. Miles is not far from being a really good player already.

Josh will be facing the learning curve, but as others have noted, he has good potential. I have not seen him play, I have only read about him, so I won't make any bold predictions. He does appear to be a guy with nice potential and with the loss of Felix, Josh will have a better chance to fight for some minutes. I look forward to seeing how good he is coming out of the gate, and I am anxious to see if he can make an impact in year 1. If so, it will serve to make the team even more formidable than what they will already be.

[Kedsy]

I think Kyle will play signifcant minutes at 4 next year due to the makeup of this years team. Faster generally means smaller and we have an abundance of tallented guards. Dre's needs to play 3 to get minutes if Seth and Kyrie live up to their billing. Nolan should get close to 30 mpg. Losing Felix helps Dre RK and Josh a little. Foul trouble or injuries for the MPs could be another facto but otherwise Josh and RK probably avg 7 mpg IMO.

For Josh and Ryan to get 7 mpg each it would mean (a) Andre would play around 20 minutes at small forward and approximately 0 minutes at guard; and (b) Miles and Mason would have to play 25 or 26 mpg each. Which of course is possible, but I wouldn't say probable.

As I said in an earlier post, based on history it's more likely the MPs play 20 to 23 minutes (or maybe a little less) and it's hard for me to believe Andre won't get to play any "2" at all. So because of both these reasons (plus all of Boozer's points about Kyle) I don't see Kyle playing more than 10 mpg at the "4" (and probably less) and for Josh and Ryan to get around 25 or a few more mpg combined. Obviously just my opinion, though.

[oldnavy]

Well, let's all just hope that Josh is as "alarmingly unathletic" as our team was last year. I would truly hate to see some athletic kid come in and screw up a good thing!

I like "alarmingly unathletic" players and teams... might mean we get number 5!

[Devilsfan]

Josh and Ryan (now a vetern soph) only getting 7 mins. a game? I find this hard to believe. But one things for sure, there's only one ball and only five slots on the court at any one time and Coach has be known to getting to an eight man rotation by ACC play so who knows. Boy somebody needs to pull a Nolan and make the most of this summer. I would be looking into playing in summer camps with NBA stars even at the risk of a silly two game penalty.

[ChicagoCrazy84]

Josh and Ryan (now a vetern soph) only getting 7 mins. a game? I find this hard to believe. But one things for sure, there's only one ball and only five slots on the court at any one time and Coach has be known to getting to an eight man rotation by ACC play so who knows. Boy somebody needs to pull a Nolan and make the most of this summer. I would be looking into playing in summer camps with NBA stars even at the risk of a silly two game penalty.


No way Coach K stays with an 8 man rotation this year. We'll go 9 deep in the ACC, sometimes 10 with Ty Thornton being the 10th in some matchups. I just think with our faster pace of play this year, he will do a bit more shuffling, especially in the frontcourt.

[Cockabeau]

I think with our loaded and deep backcourt, Thornton may be regulated to practice player for the foreseeable future.
Before you blast me, Tyler knew this before he signed with Duke. Its nature of the beast.

[airowe]

I think with our loaded and deep backcourt, Thornton may be regulated to practice player for the foreseeable future.
Before you blast me, Tyler knew this before he signed with Duke. Its nature of the beast.

Every Duke fan should hope that Tyler Thornton averages about 4 mpg and plays 8-10 minutes in each game against the heels.

[lotusland]

My sense that Singler will play signficant minutes at the 4 position is based mostly on the makeup of the team and our 4 tallented guards. Kyle is quick for 4 but has avg quickness for a 3 so we are quicker with him at 4. He's
demonstrated that he can play either well andI agree he will play more at 3 but I still say he gets significant mpg at 4. Coach likes to go small historically and I thought last year he departed out of necessity (which did seem to work out well for us). K has been clear about wanting to up tempo based on personell this yr and we have the guards to do it so I hope we see allot of Seth and Dre on the floor at the same time as Kyle and Nolan. Of course everybody gets an opportunity to earn minutes but when the rotation gets tight I hope Dre and Seth are getting 25 mpg. As a freshman Josh can learn allott watching. Hopefully RK is physically ready to spell MPs at 4-5. Whatever happens will be fun to watch it unfold. GO DUKE!

[jimsumner]

"Coach likes to go small historically and I thought last year he departed out of necessity (which did seem to work out well for us)."

Yes, I would say it worked out okay.

K historically goes with the lineup that best gives Duke a chance to win. Sometimes that's small, sometimes it isn't. Duke won the NCAA title in 2001 with Boozer, Battier and Dunleavy starting in the frontcourt. The 1994 team made the title game with Parks, Lang and Hill, all 6-8 or taller.

There are other examples. The plan is to play 2 of Plumlee, Plumlee, Kelly and Hairston at the 4/5, with Singler moving inside during end-of-game-situations.

I agree with Boozer here. Singler only plays major minutes inside if the other four bigs don't play up to snuff.

[ChicagoCrazy84]

My sense that Singler will play signficant minutes at the 4 position is based mostly on the makeup of the team and our 4 tallented guards. Kyle is quick for 4 but has avg quickness for a 3 so we are quicker with him at 4. He's
demonstrated that he can play either well andI agree he will play more at 3 but I still say he gets significant mpg at 4. Coach likes to go small historically and I thought last year he departed out of necessity (which did seem to work out well for us). K has been clear about wanting to up tempo based on personell this yr and we have the guards to do it so I hope we see allot of Seth and Dre on the floor at the same time as Kyle and Nolan. Of course everybody gets an opportunity to earn minutes but when the rotation gets tight I hope Dre and Seth are getting 25 mpg. As a freshman Josh can learn allott watching. Hopefully RK is physically ready to spell MPs at 4-5. Whatever happens will be fun to watch it unfold. GO DUKE!


Hard to think that Dre and Seth would not be getting substantial minutes. The great thing is, I see all of these guys playing so well together. They are all good friends off the court and that translates into comfort and trust on the court.

Speaking of RK being physically ready, does anyone know what hes up to this summer? Hopefully he's working hard cause we're gonna need him to make a step forward.

[COYS]

Hard to think that Dre and Seth would not be getting substantial minutes. The great thing is, I see all of these guys playing so well together. They are all good friends off the court and that translates into comfort and trust on the court.

Speaking of RK being physically ready, does anyone know what hes up to this summer? Hopefully he's working hard cause we're gonna need him to make a step forward.

I would be utterly shocked if he weren't working hard during the offseason. He's a competitor and you can bet that the he has a list of things to work on from the staff. He and Josh will both have important roles next season. Even if neither receives major minutes, it will be an immense strengh of next years team if there is little dropoff between the starting bigs and the bench.

[Dukeface88]

Hard to think that Dre and Seth would not be getting substantial minutes. The great thing is, I see all of these guys playing so well together. They are all good friends off the court and that translates into comfort and trust on the court.

Speaking of RK being physically ready, does anyone know what hes up to this summer? Hopefully he's working hard cause we're gonna need him to make a step forward.

I imagine he's spending a great deal of time in the weight room. If he can improve his strength and size, I think he'll present a match-up problem while on the court with Kyle. Last year, Kyle posting up usually meant 3 defenders in the interior, since Z and LT weren't really threat from outside. Ryan, on the other hand, is a good enough 3 point shooter that you don't want to leave him unguarded at the arc. That could allow him to drag opposing 4s out of position, so Kyle has better spacing if/when he goes inside (the alternative would be guarding Ryan with a 3, who he can shoot over, and Kyle with a 4, who he will have a speed advantage against). That would also put Ryan in a position to exploit his skill at post entry passes.

[airowe]

Speaking of RK being physically ready, does anyone know what hes up to this summer? Hopefully he's working hard cause we're gonna need him to make a step forward.

Sounds like he's one of the few guys to stick around campus all Summer and is working very hard in the weight room. All part of the plan to get his strength up. We may see a Horvathian growth in his body!?!

[Dukefan4Life]

I don"t think we need josh to gain that much mass! I think it would take something from his game JMO though. I do think josh will be a factor for our team by mid season.

[DukieInBrasil]

I don"t think we need josh to gain that much mass! I think it would take something from his game JMO though. I do think josh will be a factor for our team by mid season.

While that may certainly be the case, it is not very common for Fr. to contribute more to the team at mid season than early. All 3 of our Fr. class from last year were producing more and more consistently early in the year, than say, half-way thru the ACC schedule or even earlier.
The only Fr. that I can remember at Duke playing as substantial or even more-elevated role in the 2nd half rather than 1st half, would be Deng, Redick and Duhon. If Josh is that caliber of a player then this may very well be an amazing season to be a fan.
Both Singler and Scheyer played very substantial roles on the team in their respective Fr. campaigns, but I would argue that both of them were less productive late than early.

[COYS]

The only Fr. that I can remember at Duke playing as substantial or even more-elevated role in the 2nd half rather than 1st half, would be Deng, Redick and Duhon. If Josh is that caliber of a player then this may very well be an amazing season to be a fan.
Both Singler and Scheyer played very substantial roles on the team in their respective Fr. campaigns, but I would argue that both of them were less productive late than early.

I don't think it makes much sense to put Singler and Scheyer in this category. If their scoring dipped just a bit, that's as much a result of team scoring dipping a bit and fewer points being scored all around.

Elliott Williams is someone who's production went from 0-60 during the second half of the ACC season. I won't lie, though, I hope we don't need such a dramatic shakeup in the mid season next year and I don't see Josh making the impact that Singler, Scheyer, Deng, etc. made their freshmen years. As long as our returning players progress as expected and Kyrie and Seth are the real deal, if Josh is able to come in and provide a spark of energy during his time in the game so that we don't notice much of a drop off while the Plumlees are sitting, that will be more than enough. Anything on top of that is gravy.

[Kedsy]

The only Fr. that I can remember at Duke playing as substantial or even more-elevated role in the 2nd half rather than 1st half, would be Deng, Redick and Duhon.

What about Elliot Williams? Although I suppose that's ancient history since it happened all the way back in 2009.

If you want to go even further back than that, a very partial list might be: Gerald Henderson, Josh McRoberts, Chris Carrowell, Trajan Langdon, Jeff Capel, Chris Collins, Christian Laettner, etc., etc. There are almost as many freshmen who have played "more-elevated role in the 2nd half" at Duke as there have been seasons.

I will grant you it is seldom that a freshman plays very little in the beginning and has a big role at the end. But Deng, Redick, and Duhon wouldn't fall into that category anyway. Almost as many players come into their own midway through their freshman year at Duke as fall out of the rotation. You never know how much or how little a player is going to progress during his first year.

[jimsumner]

"The only Fr. that I can remember at Duke playing as substantial or even more-elevated role in the 2nd half rather than 1st half, would be Deng, Redick and Duhon"

And Johnny Dawkins, Mark Alarie, David Henderson, Jay Bilas, Tommy Amaker, Christian Laettner (ask Alonzo Mourning), Bobby Hurley, Grant Hill, Jeff Capel,
Trajan Langdon, Chris Carrawell, Shane Battier, Jason Williams, Carlos Boozer, Shelden Williams, Josh McRoberts, Greg Paulus, Jon Scheyer, and Kyle Singer. None saw any significant decrease in PT during the second half of their freshmen seasons and several--e.g. Laettner, Hill, Capel--played spectacular ball at the end of their freshmen seasons.

Somehow the idea that Mike Krzyzewski won't play freshmen has gained currency. Despite sunstantial evidence to the contrary. If Josh Hairston is good enough, he'll play.

[DukieInBrasil]

"The only Fr. that I can remember at Duke playing as substantial or even more-elevated role in the 2nd half rather than 1st half, would be Deng, Redick and Duhon"

And Johnny Dawkins, Mark Alarie, David Henderson, Jay Bilas, Tommy Amaker, Christian Laettner (ask Alonzo Mourning), Bobby Hurley, Grant Hill, Jeff Capel,
Trajan Langdon, Chris Carrawell, Shane Battier, Jason Williams, Carlos Boozer, Shelden Williams, Josh McRoberts, Greg Paulus, Jon Scheyer, and Kyle Singer. None saw any significant decrease in PT during the second half of their freshmen seasons and several--e.g. Laettner, Hill, Capel--played spectacular ball at the end of their freshmen seasons.

Somehow the idea that Mike Krzyzewski won't play freshmen has gained currency. Despite sunstantial evidence to the contrary. If Josh Hairston is good enough, he'll play.

Check the bold. I'm not saying that their aren't any Fr. contributors and I wasn't pushing the "no Fr. contributors" meme. I was pointing out that very seldom does a Fr. go from making little impact at the beginning of their Fr. seasons to being a significant factor by the middle of the season and later. (i made a typo, i was thinking "substantially elevated" rather than "substantial or more"...)
Redick was not a particularly good example as he was a big contributor right away. Deng was a good player right away but the way his presence on the court grew throughout the year was very impressive. Duhon became a starter late and helped deliver a championship. EWill was obviously a big oversight, although he had a period of about 8 games when his impact was phenomenal and then faded back to a level of productivity more similar to his prior level.
If I offended anyone by not including every Fr. at Duke has has made a big impact, I'm sorry, but I was arguing about Fr. having no impact late in the year.

[ChicagoCrazy84]

I know this is the Josh Hairston thread and I appreciate that, but I am not worried about our freshman at all. I think we all know what we'll get with Kyrie and we have some sort of idea what we'll get from Seth (though technically not a frosh). Even Josh's role is somewhat known. I see him as Jamal Boykin's role his freshman year before he left us :(

What I AM worried about...or maybe not so much worried, but curious is Miles and Mason. These guys are going to be the X-Factor this season IMO. We need these guys to become a consistent threat inside, no more 10 minutes, 0 pt, 2 reb, 4 foul games from Miles. We need these guys to stay on the floor and produce.

[jimsumner]

DukieinBrasil,

Your typo noted. Kinda changes things.

But certainly Christian Laettner would qualify. Jeff Capel dramatically elevated his game late in his freshman season. As did Shelden Williams. Robert Brickey played more late than early, in part because Billy King broke a wrist against Notre Dame. Chris Carrawell would qualify. Nate James missed the first half of his freshman season with a thumb injury and made the rotation in the second half. We've discussed Elliott Williams.

So, I think your premise is historically incorrect.

[DukieInBrasil]

DukieinBrasil,

Your typo noted. Kinda changes things.

But certainly Christian Laettner would qualify. Jeff Capel dramatically elevated his game late in his freshman season. As did Shelden Williams. Robert Brickey played more late than early, in part because Billy King broke a wrist against Notre Dame. Chris Carrawell would qualify. Nate James missed the first half of his freshman season with a thumb injury and made the rotation in the second half. We've discussed Elliott Williams.

So, I think your premise is historically incorrect.

Fair enough, those are some pretty distinguished names. If you go back to King's Fr. season, roughly 25 years, we've got a list of 7 or 8 players, possibly up to 10, who qualify in the framework of this idea. That's between 30-40% of the squads in that time who have fielded a Fr. who made that sort of transformation in their Fr. years. Does that not qualify as seldom? I would say that 1/2 the time would be common, so 1/3 the time to me would seem to be seldom, which was the qualifier of my original post re: Fr. elevating their game mid-season.
I agree with your idea that "If Josh Hairston is good enough, he'll play", and I certainly hope is good enough to get enough minutes that he makes significant improvement throughout his Fr. year.

[Indoor66]

Fair enough, those are some pretty distinguished names. If you go back to King's Fr. season, roughly 25 years, we've got a list of 7 or 8 players, possibly up to 10, who qualify in the framework of this idea. That's between 30-40% of the squads in that time who have fielded a Fr. who made that sort of transformation in their Fr. years. Does that not qualify as seldom? I would say that 1/2 the time would be common, so 1/3 the time to me would seem to be seldom, which was the qualifier of my original post re: Fr. elevating their game mid-season.
I agree with your idea that "If Josh Hairston is good enough, he'll play", and I certainly hope is good enough to get enough minutes that he makes significant improvement throughout his Fr. year.

Just how many angels CAN sit on the head of a pin?

[DukieInBrasil]

I know this is the Josh Hairston thread and I appreciate that, but I am not worried about our freshman at all. I think we all know what we'll get with Kyrie and we have some sort of idea what we'll get from Seth (though technically not a frosh). Even Josh's role is somewhat known. I see him as Jamal Boykin's role his freshman year before he left us :(


Seth will be making his first appearances in NCAA sanctioned games for Duke, but he is nowhere near being a Fr., he'll be in his 3rd year removed from HS, having used up his Fr. year at Liberty U.
I appreciate your idea that Josh's role will be somewhat akin to Jamal Boykin's, but I'm not sure how you can say that his role is "known". Ideas have ranged from him being the 1st backup at the 4, to being the 2nd backup at the 3 and 4 to him being the 5th or 6th big (depending on how Singler is used). If JH were to play in a similar fashion as JB, I think that would be satisfactory. Go Josh!!!

[ChicagoCrazy84]

Seth will be making his first appearances in NCAA sanctioned games for Duke, but he is nowhere near being a Fr., he'll be in his 3rd year removed from HS, having used up his Fr. year at Liberty U.
I appreciate your idea that Josh's role will be somewhat akin to Jamal Boykin's, but I'm not sure how you can say that his role is "known". Ideas have ranged from him being the 1st backup at the 4, to being the 2nd backup at the 3 and 4 to him being the 5th or 6th big (depending on how Singler is used). If JH were to play in a similar fashion as JB, I think that would be satisfactory. Go Josh!!!

You're right, as far as his role goes, I have no idea, I guess I was thinking more in terms of production more than anything. I see him similar to JB because while their roles and their spot in the rotation may not be determined, they are valuable because of the energy and spark they provide.

[lotusland]

"
K historically goes with the lineup that best gives Duke a chance to win. Sometimes that's small, sometimes it isn't.

I agree with Boozer here. Singler only plays major minutes inside if the other four bigs don't play up to snuff.


Doesn't seem like allot of minutes left for Dre and Seth if Kyle plays 30+ at 3 and Nolan plays 30+ at 2/1.

Seems to me that the lineup that gives us the best chance to win may be to go small regularly with Kyle at 4 in order to maximize our guard strength. Coach doesn't seem to get hung up on positions anyway. If Dre and Seth are in fact our best reserves then one way keep them involved would be to play Dre at 3 and move Kyle to 4. Someone said no more than 10 minutes at 4 for Kyle which to me would be "signficant" minutes at 4 so maybe we are arguing semantics. 10 mpg at PF and 20 on the wing for Kyle leaves 20mpg for Dre at 3. If MPs play 25mpg at 4/5 and Kyle plays 10mpg at 4 that leaves 20 minutes for Josh and RK at 4/5 which seems pretty balanced and equitable to me but that's just my hunch.

[jipops]

The part that raised my eyebrow reading about Josh was his learned footwork as a result of playing 8 years of soccer. I'm no soccer fan or buff whatsoever, but this has been a sport that has benefited other basketball players quite well on both ends of the floor. Olajuwon just to name one.

The comparison to Lance is natural since they are both about the same size and weight coming in though I see Josh getting thicker. Josh also already seems to have some perimeter skills coming in, something Lance didn't really bring to the table.

I have no idea what to expect we'll get from Josh his 1st year. If he's good enough he'll get playing time immediately and I'm sure K would like to be able to use him at both forward positions. Whatever we get from Josh, whether it be 1, 2, or 3 years down the road, I feel quite confident it's going to be very good.

[Newton_14]

The part that raised my eyebrow reading about Josh was his learned footwork as a result of playing 8 years of soccer. I'm no soccer fan or buff whatsoever, but this has been a sport that has benefited other basketball players quite well on both ends of the floor. Olajuwon just to name one.


It raised my eyebrows as well! That was something I had not heard about Mr. Hairston. Like you I see that as a big plus. It appears that not only did he play 8 years of soccer, he was actually really good at it as well. I believe those skills will serve him well on the basketball court. Especially with footwork in the post.

I have a whole new reason to hope for big things from Josh now!:D

Seriously, I look forward to seeing Josh hit the court, he could be an early surprise..

[MCFinARL]

The part that raised my eyebrow reading about Josh was his learned footwork as a result of playing 8 years of soccer. I'm no soccer fan or buff whatsoever, but this has been a sport that has benefited other basketball players quite well on both ends of the floor. Olajuwon just to name one.

The comparison to Lance is natural since they are both about the same size and weight coming in though I see Josh getting thicker. Josh also already seems to have some perimeter skills coming in, something Lance didn't really bring to the table.

I have no idea what to expect we'll get from Josh his 1st year. If he's good enough he'll get playing time immediately and I'm sure K would like to be able to use him at both forward positions. Whatever we get from Josh, whether it be 1, 2, or 3 years down the road, I feel quite confident it's going to be very good.

Agreed. I think the soccer experience is important--doI remember that Zoubek worked on soccer footwork skills in the offseason? Obviously, Coach K won't play a frosh much if he doesn't think he is ready. But I think he might be a pleasant surprise.

[Indoor66]

The part that raised my eyebrow reading about Josh was his learned footwork as a result of playing 8 years of soccer. I'm no soccer fan or buff whatsoever, but this has been a sport that has benefited other basketball players quite well on both ends of the floor. Olajuwon just to name one.

Greybeard will be so very happy. I look forward to seeing him play.

[Kedsy]

Doesn't seem like allot of minutes left for Dre and Seth if Kyle plays 30+ at 3 and Nolan plays 30+ at 2/1.

Seems to me that the lineup that gives us the best chance to win may be to go small regularly with Kyle at 4 in order to maximize our guard strength. Coach doesn't seem to get hung up on positions anyway. If Dre and Seth are in fact our best reserves then one way keep them involved would be to play Dre at 3 and move Kyle to 4. Someone said no more than 10 minutes at 4 for Kyle which to me would be "signficant" minutes at 4 so maybe we are arguing semantics. 10 mpg at PF and 20 on the wing for Kyle leaves 20mpg for Dre at 3. If MPs play 25mpg at 4/5 and Kyle plays 10mpg at 4 that leaves 20 minutes for Josh and RK at 4/5 which seems pretty balanced and equitable to me but that's just my hunch.

Well, again, this is possible but history would argue against Mason and Miles playing so many minutes. More likely they play 20 to 23 each. Assuming they play 45 between them, and Kyle plays 10 at the 4 (which I think is a little high, but not outside the realm of possibility) that leaves 25 for Ryan and Josh, which is a lot more than the 14 you hypothesized in an earlier post.

While it's true Coach K "doesn't seem to get hung up on positions," it's also true he has rarely played a lineup as small on the perimeter as 6'4", 6'2, 6'1" (Andre, Nolan, Kyrie), and he has certainly never played one as small as 6'2", 6'1", 6'1" (Nolan, Seth, Kyrie). It seems possible we will see small lineups like this (I would think the first one a lot more than the second) for 15 or so minutes a game, but probably no more than is necessary.

There are ways to divvy up the minutes and give both Seth and Andre 20+ minutes without Kyle being primarily a 4.

[Big Pappa]

While it's true Coach K "doesn't seem to get hung up on positions," it's also true he has rarely played a lineup as small on the perimeter as 6'4", 6'2, 6'1" (Andre, Nolan, Kyrie), and he has certainly never played one as small as 6'2", 6'1", 6'1" (Nolan, Seth, Kyrie). It seems possible we will see small lineups like this (I would think the first one a lot more than the second) for 15 or so minutes a game, but probably no more than is necessary.


It seems like most can agree with this statement and I really don't know why we have to keep addressing it. No offense at all to you Kedsy. It just seems like instead of reading through a thread, or at least the last few pages, before posting people are just asking the same questions over and over again.

However, I do like your point about Ryan and Josh getting a good chunk of minutes. I think this will end up being very true, especially in Ryan's case, because of his versatility.

[CrazieDUMB]

What's the over/under on the number of posts it takes for every thread to converge into minutes distribution? I'd put it around 15 for individual players thread.

[MChambers]

Can't we limit our comments in this thread to things that are specific to Josh?

[gumbomoop]

Can't we limit our comments in this thread to things that are specific to Josh?

Reasonable request. I'll try to advance the Josh-discussion by asking a question about his D. As it's understandable that Josh and Ryan are frequently discussed together, I have a couple of times posted my prediction that Ryan will get more minutes than Josh, because of experience and multi-skills. My reservation re Josh's readiness, right away, is based on one - repeat: one - televised HS game involving Josh's team. I was not impressed with Josh's D, not at all. I've no doubt that Josh will, in time, be a fine player all over the court.

So, to any posters who have actually seen Josh play, live or tv, please comment on his D.

[Big Pappa]

Reasonable request. I'll try to advance the Josh-discussion by asking a question about his D. As it's understandable that Josh and Ryan are frequently discussed together, I have a couple of times posted my prediction that Ryan will get more minutes than Josh, because of experience and multi-skills. My reservation re Josh's readiness, right away, is based on one - repeat: one - televised HS game involving Josh's team. I was not impressed with Josh's D, not at all. I've no doubt that Josh will, in time, be a fine player all over the court.

So, to any posters who have actually seen Josh play, live or tv, please comment on his D.

I have seen Josh play a few times and wasn't overly impressed by his defense. He does move his feet very well for a player his size and is also a very good rebounder. His face-up defense one on one was not very good, but one reason for that is the size of the guys he was trying to guard (in the games I saw him). He was guarding players who were much smaller and quicker than he was, they were undersized to be playing down-low in high school much less in the ACC. When guarding guys like Zeller for instance, he won't have the same problems.

I think you touched on the biggest concern and that is readiness. I don't think that Josh is ready, defensively, to play double-digit minutes next year. But realistically, even most freshman who do end up playing double-digit minutes out of necessity aren't ready defensively.

[devil84]

Y'all, this is a thread about Josh Hairston, not speculation of distribution of team minutes. I cleaned up today's posts that were not directly related to Josh.

Please, stay on topic.

[Duvall]

Y'all, this is a thread about Josh Hairston, not speculation of distribution of team minutes. I cleaned up today's posts that were not directly related to Josh.

Please, stay on topic.

So, what exactly are we supposed to do when someone says something incredibly stupid? Just let it sit there?

[devil84]

So, what exactly are we supposed to do when someone says something incredibly stupid? Just let it sit there?


You could (gently) remind the errant poster to stay on topic.
You could report the post. If it's a good topic of conversation, the mods can move that post to start its own thread or move it to a more appropriate thread. If not, it can be handled by the mods.
You could rebut the post by private message, particularly in off-topic instances.
You could let the post just sit there. Seriously. If nobody answers a stupid comment, that speaks volumes.

So why did I reply to this off-topic post when I had so many other options? A little reminder of the options may make this forum a better place. (Didn't know these were options? Perhaps it's time to re-read those stickied threads at the top of the forum. :))

Back to discussing Josh Hairston.

[Slackerb]

My post on a breakdown of MPG for players was included as part of the "How much impact will Hairston have?" debate.

Sure, it included other players, but that was necessary to talk about Josh's playing time.

By "cleaning up" the thread, did you just delete the posts that you didn't think were relevant?

[Big Pappa]

Great interview with Josh from the FIBA USA U-18 games:

http://dukehoop.blogspot.com/2010/06/usa-vs-us-virgin-islands-post-game.html