NBA Free Agency 2010

[MisterRoddy]

Seeing as this is a special free agent period for the NBA, I thought it would be nice to start a fresh thread to discuss the top free agents.

How do you guys see things shaking out this summer and where do you guys see the big names going: Lebron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Joe Johnson, Amar'e Stoudemire, our own Carlos Boozer, David Lee, and any others I might be missing out?

IMO
Lebron - Cavs (hometown hero, I believe he will stick to his family and loyalty and remain a Cav)
Wade - Heat (the heat will need another big-time free agent for him to stick around but that sprecisely what I think will happen)
Bosh - Heat (Miami and D-Wade, enough said)
Joe Johnson - Bulls (Chicago missing out on Lebron but will have a good backup plan in Joe)

Those are the guys I have solid opinions on.

Also, another tidbit from this summer is that Grant Hill will stick with his contract and remain a Sun for next year.

You guys' opinions?

[TheBrianZoubekExperience]

Off the top of my head...

Lebron - Chicago
Rudy Gay - Clippers
Wade - Miami
Bosh - Miami
Ray Allen - Miami (somehow)?
Dirk - Mavs

Obviously it all really in flux. I suppose my main prediction is that Chicago will be able to sign someone the first day. I think NYK and the Nyets both strike out.

I'm very interested to see how the dynamic among Lebron/Bosh/Wade. Obviously theres been talk of them all coming together but if they don't hash out a clear plan together it could be pretty frenetic. A lot of people have said Lebron is going to take his time and go through the recruiting process but I'm not sure how that will work unless everyone else is willing to wait around for him. I assume he's Chicago's first choice but if Wade or Bosh are ready to sign the first day and Lebron hasn't decided is Chicago really going to wait around and risk that Wade and Bosh go to the Heat or the Knicks themselves and possibly leave Chicago hung out if Lebron ultimately decides to stay. I guess I just don't really see Lebron being able to take his time and meet with everyone over a prolonged period of time.

[MisterRoddy]

Off the top of my head...

Lebron - Chicago
Rudy Gay - Clippers
Wade - Miami
Bosh - Miami
Ray Allen - Miami (somehow)?
Dirk - Mavs

Obviously it all really in flux. I suppose my main prediction is that Chicago will be able to sign someone the first day. I think NYK and the Nyets both strike out.

I'm very interested to see how the dynamic among Lebron/Bosh/Wade. Obviously theres been talk of them all coming together but if they don't hash out a clear plan together it could be pretty frenetic. A lot of people have said Lebron is going to take his time and go through the recruiting process but I'm not sure how that will work unless everyone else is willing to wait around for him. I assume he's Chicago's first choice but if Wade or Bosh are ready to sign the first day and Lebron hasn't decided is Chicago really going to wait around and risk that Wade and Bosh go to the Heat or the Knicks themselves and possibly leave Chicago hung out if Lebron ultimately decides to stay. I guess I just don't really see Lebron being able to take his time and meet with everyone over a prolonged period of time.

A clash of the egos wont allow that to happen. I could see Lebron going to Chicago also.

I think Chicago will pour all their chips onto the table for Lebron though. Also, Chitown knows that there is a small chance they pull Wade away from Miami and will be all in till the very end for Lebron.

[JohnGalt]

Seeing as this is a special free agent period for the NBA, I thought it would be nice to start a fresh thread to discuss the top free agents.

Also, another tidbit from this summer is that Grant Hill will stick with his contract and remain a Sun for next year.

You guys' opinions?

Phil Jackson. If you'e looking for an incentive to help Lebron out of Cleveland, that's it. It's possible - following next year - Phil will have coached Jordan, Kobe, and BronBron...whoaaa.

"Loyalty" in the NBA can be a catch 22. If I remember correctly, KG had a little chat with LeBron about remaining loyal a little too long. I'd be willing to bet LeBron takes that into serious consideration.

That being said, I'd love to see LeBron in Dallas with Dirk. They'd be a fun duo to watch even despite having to listen Cuban as a result of it.

[brevity]

Joe Johnson - Bulls (Chicago missing out on Lebron but will have a good backup plan in Joe)

After the LeBron James decision, this is the most interesting story of the free agent period. Joe Johnson picked a terrific time to get paid. I know that he's talking with Wade and James and maybe Bosh about their plans, but seems the least likely to end up on the same team as James.

The teams that get jilted by LeBron have two choices: sign and probably overpay Joe Johnson as a consolation prize, or try their luck again in 2011 for Carmelo Anthony, when other teams will also be in play.

I think it's in Joe Johnson's best interest to wait and see what LeBron will do, unless he decides to pair with Wade or Bosh in some kind of package deal. The latter will give him less pressure, but also less money.

A fairly lengthy list of the 2010 NBA Free Agent class can be found here (http://www.hoopsworld.com/Story.asp?story_id=13175).

[MisterRoddy]

After the LeBron James decision, this is the most interesting story of the free agent period. Joe Johnson picked a terrific time to get paid. I know that he's talking with Wade and James and maybe Bosh about their plans, but seems the least likely to end up on the same team as James.

The teams that get jilted by LeBron have two choices: sign and probably overpay Joe Johnson as a consolation prize, or try their luck again in 2011 for Carmelo Anthony, when other teams will also be in play.

I think it's in Joe Johnson's best interest to wait and see what LeBron will do, unless he decides to pair with Wade or Bosh in some kind of package deal. The latter will give him less pressure, but also less money.

A fairly lengthy list of the 2010 NBA Free Agent class can be found here (http://www.hoopsworld.com/Story.asp?story_id=13175).

Thanks for the link.

If Joe Johnson was to tagteam with a big-time player, I believe it would be with Wade (and possibly Bosh or Stoudemire) in Miami. He has already made it known that he wouldn't mind that situation one bit.

[Billy Dat]

I find it fascinating that the big name free agents are openly talking about how they are going to hunker down and figure out, together, where they all should go. There have always been allusions to such activity, but it is basically out in the open and being reported on. The NBA anti-tampering police must be on the edge of their seats.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5235598

[Big Pappa]

Lebron stays in Cleveland for multiple reasons, but the biggest one is 30 million more than any other team can give him.

[MisterRoddy]

Lebron stays in Cleveland for multiple reasons, but the biggest one is 30 million more than any other team can give him.

Do the Cavs hav enough room to sign any other relatively big name free agents, because I think that could go a long way into him staying in Cleveland.

[pfrduke]

Lebron stays in Cleveland for multiple reasons, but the biggest one is 30 million more than any other team can give him.

Well, sort of. He can get that 30 mill. through a sign and trade. If he makes it known to the Cavs that he's leaving no matter what, they may have incentive to do a sign and trade (thereby getting at least something in return).

[sundown]

Do the Cavs hav enough room to sign any other relatively big name free agents, because I think that could go a long way into him staying in Cleveland.

No, they'll be capped out regardless.

[MisterRoddy]

No, they'll be capped out regardless.

I think that could play a big factor in his decision.

He knows the Cavs weren't good enough to beat the Celtics and most likely the Magic. Both of those teams bring back the key pieces to their team so the Cavs doing nothing outside of Lebron this summer can be a big deterent.

He also knows that there are other teams that will probably get MUCH stronger next year whether it be Miami, Milwuakee or Chicago that will be able to consistently challenge that Cavalier team.

Very interested to hear what comes from those meetings.

[TheBrianZoubekExperience]

Well, sort of. He can get that 30 mill. through a sign and trade. If he makes it known to the Cavs that he's leaving no matter what, they may have incentive to do a sign and trade (thereby getting at least something in return).

True but if I were the Cavs I wouldn't want to do any kind of sign and trade unless it was just for future picks. I'd rather not take middling talent back in a sign and trade. I don't even think I would really entertain the sign and trade because 1) I don't want to give Lebron any hint or inclination that we're ready to move on 2) I wouldn't want to give him the option to get a longer contract in the hopes that even if he has told me he is 100 percent leaving he might chance his mind 3) I don't want to give him any kind of excuse (if he wants to leave the city and the franchise, he's going to have to do it and turn his back on the team and 4) the type of talent you would likely get back wouldn't be worth it - I'd rather accept that we're going to be a lot worse and start trading my other decent players for picks if possible and bottom out with the hopes of being a serious contender down the road.

If Lebron wants to leave, I'd make him leave. Not going to be remembered as contributing in any way to his leaving or leaving any doubt. If he wants to leave to go to a different team and take less in a contract, fine but I wouldn't sign and trade him even if he tells me he is leaving no matter what.

[BattierD12]

From the Orlando Sentinel this morning:

"J.J. Redick will be a restricted free agent this offseason, and on Monday, Redick continued to say he would prefer to re-sign with the Orlando Magic.

He also indicated that his main goal isn't to go to a team where he would be a starter. In fact, Redick insisted that he would be happy to remain a bench player on a winning team.

"Winning is the most important thing to me," Redick said. "I'd rather have this role on a winning team with a great organization and a great city than anything else. So, in my book, there's no substitute for winning.""

[MisterRoddy]

From the Orlando Sentinel this morning:

"J.J. Redick will be a restricted free agent this offseason, and on Monday, Redick continued to say he would prefer to re-sign with the Orlando Magic.

He also indicated that his main goal isn't to go to a team where he would be a starter. In fact, Redick insisted that he would be happy to remain a bench player on a winning team.

"Winning is the most important thing to me," Redick said. "I'd rather have this role on a winning team with a great organization and a great city than anything else. So, in my book, there's no substitute for winning.""

I like this. Shows what type of guy JJ is. I think his role with ORL will continue to grow and will definitely be a good asset for the Magic.

Besides, I could get used to seeing JJ playing deep in the playoffs.

[Acymetric]

I like this. Shows what type of guy JJ is. I think his role with ORL will continue to grow and will definitely be a good asset for the Magic.

Besides, I could get used to seeing JJ playing deep in the playoffs.

However, if someone throws more money at him than the Magic are willing (or able) to pay he may find it hard not to go elsewhere, and I'm sure there are other contenders that would be interested in his services. I'm not at all convinced he'll suit up for the Magic next season.

[superdave]

The Cavs have Ilgauskus and Shaq coming off the cap this summer, right?

http://www.news-herald.com/articles/2010/05/21/sports/nh2525405.txt

According to this article, Shaq and Ilgauskus wont be re-signed. Also, Delonte could be waived for only $500k. Also, Telfair is going to exercise his option and remain, although I dont think he's been a rotation player for the Cavs of late.

I'm wondering if the Cavs can re-sign LeBron for the max and get another star: Bosh in a sign and trade for Jamison/Hickson seems like the home run play. If the Cavs are over the cap, they get a mid-level exemption too ($6-8 million?) and could sign a veteran like Grant Hill, Shaq, Ray Allen, etc.

Anybody keeping with all this stuff!?

[Big Pappa]

Do the Cavs hav enough room to sign any other relatively big name free agents, because I think that could go a long way into him staying in Cleveland.


The Cavs have Ilgauskus and Shaq coming off the cap this summer, right?

http://www.news-herald.com/articles/2010/05/21/sports/nh2525405.txt

According to this article, Shaq and Ilgauskus wont be re-signed. Also, Delonte could be waived for only $500k. Also, Telfair is going to exercise his option and remain, although I dont think he's been a rotation player for the Cavs of late.

I'm wondering if the Cavs can re-sign LeBron for the max and get another star: Bosh in a sign and trade for Jamison/Hickson seems like the home run play. If the Cavs are over the cap, they get a mid-level exemption too ($6-8 million?) and could sign a veteran like Grant Hill, Shaq, Ray Allen, etc.

Anybody keeping with all this stuff!?

This is exactly what I thought would happen. I think the Cavs get rid of Shaq, Z, and West. Much of my opinion comes from another thread (http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?t=21314&page=6) where I share some information I recieved from a friend.

Bosh would be the only "star" I see coming to play with Lebron simply because I don't think he wants to share the ball with a guy like Wade. I think the combination of 30 million more, handpicking a new coach, being able to put a cast around him that he wants around him, and his history with the city of Cleveland, keep him where he is.

[Big Pappa]

It looks like there is the possibility of a few of the questions being answered on CNN on Friday:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5238743

[superdave]

It looks like there is the possibility of a few of the questions being answered on CNN on Friday:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5238743

Do you think Larry King even knows who LeBron is? I bet he gets at least 3 facts wrong about James in his interview!

So, no Z, Shaq and Delonte - here's their salary breakdown:
Shaq $21.0
Z $0.9
West $4.25

That's over $25.0 M freed up, but the cap will shrink and LeBron will re-sign (currently making over $15 himself).

Would Bosh have to take less than max or would the Cavs just pay the luxury tax?

I could see the Cavs getting Bosh and Ray Allen (midlevel exception).

[CDu]

Do you think Larry King even knows who LeBron is? I bet he gets at least 3 facts wrong about James in his interview!

So, no Z, Shaq and Delonte - here's their salary breakdown:
Shaq $21.0
Z $0.9
West $4.25

That's over $25.0 M freed up, but the cap will shrink and LeBron will re-sign (currently making over $15 himself).

Would Bosh have to take less than max or would the Cavs just pay the luxury tax?

I could see the Cavs getting Bosh and Ray Allen (midlevel exception).

The problem here is that the Cavs were already well over the cap this past year. So even though O'Neal and West and Ilgauskas come off the books, that doesn't help them much.

The Cavs are currently invested in $46 million without Shaq, Ilgauskas, James, or West:
http://www.hoopsworld.com/Story.asp?story_id=9195

That already puts them pretty near the cap. So Bosh can't be signed as a free agent by the Cavs. The only big moves the Cavs can make would be a sign-and-trade, and they don't exactly have valuable commodities to make such a trade happen.

Basically, unless the Cavs get REALLY creative/lucky, LeBron will be deciding whether the current group (with or without O'Neal and/or Ilgauskas) can win it all, or whether he's better off taking a slight paycut and teaming up with Rose/Noah/Bulls or Bosh in NY, or Wade in Miami.

[superdave]

That already puts them pretty near the cap. So Bosh can't be signed as a free agent by the Cavs. The only big moves the Cavs can make would be a sign-and-trade, and they don't exactly have valuable commodities to make such a trade happen.



I think the only likely scenario is Jamsion and Hickson in a sign and trade deal for Bosh. It's do-able.

[MisterRoddy]

I think the only likely scenario is Jamsion and Hickson in a sign and trade deal for Bosh. It's do-able.

I dont see Bosh going to Cleveland. I think the Raptors would want a little more than an aging, injury-prone, former all-star, and a relatively unproven role player.

IMO, the 2 biggest players for Bosh are Miami and Chicago, they both have the space to do it without a sign and trade. I see him ending up in Miami to play with Wade plus that city is very alluring. Also, Miami has enough room to sign another solid free agent such as a Joe Johnson-type. I could see either Miami (most likely) or Chicago having a big off-season and possibly having a "Big 3" of their own by next year.

[CDu]

I think the only likely scenario is Jamsion and Hickson in a sign and trade deal for Bosh. It's do-able.

Yes it's technically doable, but I wouldn't call that a likely scenario. Why would Toronto do that? Hickson isn't all that valuable, and Jamison is, at this point, an overpaid (and under contract for two more years), undersized PF who can't score consistently and can't defend anybody. They'd be just as well off letting Bosh walk for nothing and having cap space for the 2011 offseason than taking on Jamison and Hickson.

As I said, the Cavs would have to get REALLY creative/lucky to pull off a sign-and-trade for another star to go along with James. The Bosh for Jamison/Hickson scenario would constitute as very lucky, as it would require the Raptors making a poor decision.

[CDu]

I dont see Bosh going to Cleveland. I think the Raptors would want a little more than an aging, injury-prone, former all-star, and a relatively unproven role player.

IMO, the 2 biggest players for Bosh are Miami and Chicago, they both have the space to do it without a sign and trade. I see him ending up in Miami to play with Wade plus that city is very alluring. Also, Miami has enough room to sign another solid free agent such as a Joe Johnson-type. I could see either Miami (most likely) or Chicago having a big off-season and possibly having a "Big 3" of their own by next year.

I mostly agree, although I wonder if Bosh rates lower on the priority list for Chicago than James and Johnson. If the Bulls are targeting a wing first, then Bosh's best bets are to try to convince James to go to New York or to go to Miami. Chicago has better pieces for a sign-and-trade than Cleveland, but I think they also don't have enough to make such a deal happen.

But yeah, I think Bosh's options are to join Wade in Miami, to convince James to join him in NY, or to join Rose/Noah in Chicago (assuming Chicago doesn't get James or Johnson first).

[MisterRoddy]

I mostly agree, although I wonder if Bosh rates lower on the priority list for Chicago than James and Johnson. If the Bulls are targeting a wing first, then Bosh's best bets are to try to convince James to go to New York or to go to Miami. Chicago has better pieces for a sign-and-trade than Cleveland, but I think they also don't have enough to make such a deal happen.

But yeah, I think Bosh's options are to join Wade in Miami, to convince James to join him in NY, or to join Rose/Noah in Chicago (assuming Chicago doesn't get James or Johnson first).

I don't really see the Knicks being big players in the Lebron sweepstakes. He's likely going to either Cleveland or Chicago.

However, whoever misses out on Bosh, that team certainly wont be out of options with Stoudemire, Boozer, Lee, etc. all available.

[ChicagoCrazy84]

I don't really see the Knicks being big players in the Lebron sweepstakes. He's likely going to either Cleveland or Chicago.

However, whoever misses out on Bosh, that team certainly wont be out of options with Stoudemire, Boozer, Lee, etc. all available.


Don't forget Nowitzki. I think that NY is a bigger player with LeBron than Cleveland to be honest. Like someone said before, Cleveland does not have the cap space to get Bosh or anyone else in the free agent land and they don't have the pieces to do a sign and trade. I think that James is done playing with pish posh mix of role players. Mo Williams was a good idea, but he is nothing more than a Damon Stoudamire type. They really don't have a lot of potential on their roster. Basically, in my mind, they're screwed.

[MisterRoddy]

Don't forget Nowitzki. I think that NY is a bigger player with LeBron than Cleveland to be honest. Like someone said before, Cleveland does not have the cap space to get Bosh or anyone else in the free agent land and they don't have the pieces to do a sign and trade. I think that James is done playing with pish posh mix of role players. Mo Williams was a good idea, but he is nothing more than a Damon Stoudamire type. They really don't have a lot of potential on their roster. Basically, in my mind, they're screwed.

True about Nowitzki, but I have a hard time believing he will leave Dallas.

Also, you are correct on most parts about Cleveland's situation. But hometown and loyalty figure to play a big role in his decision more than some think. Recently, he stated in an interview with Larry King that Cleveland has the "edge."
A new coach and possibly better team chemistry *cough release West cough* along with a few smart small additions to the team and I could see Cleveland right back in contention next year.

[superdave]

If Bosh wants to play with either James or Wade, which seems like his intention, then he's not going to Chicago. He could sign in Cleveland for 1 year and $12 M then get a max deal the following summer.

Also, what is Toronto likely to get in return for Bosh in a sign and trade? Andrew Bynum has been mentioned a lot, but he's overpaid and not durable. The Heat have Beasley but that's not all that enticing. The Bulls have little of interest outside of Rose/Noah but they are not getting traded.

So Jamison (18 and 8 this year) and Hickson (21 years old, 8 and 5) seem to be a pretty good combo.

[MisterRoddy]

If Bosh wants to play with either James or Wade, which seems like his intention, then he's not going to Chicago. He could sign in Cleveland for 1 year and $12 M then get a max deal the following summer.

Also, what is Toronto likely to get in return for Bosh in a sign and trade? Andrew Bynum has been mentioned a lot, but he's overpaid and not durable. The Heat have Beasley but that's not all that enticing. The Bulls have little of interest outside of Rose/Noah but they are not getting traded.

So Jamison (18 and 8 this year) and Hickson (21 years old, 8 and 5) seem to be a pretty good combo.

I dont think that's a likely scenario as he wants a long-term deal now. Too many wildcards to factor in (he could get an injury)

I could see Bosh and Joe teaming up with Rose in Chicago. But Chicago's pursuit of Lebron will get in the way of a probably more likely, just as smart, decision like this. Thats what I feel will be the ultimate downfall of Chicago, chasing Lebron till the very end and then if he signs with Cleveland, Bosh and Joe are in Miami, Amar'e back with PHX, Boozer and Salmons in NY, etc.

Point is, I hope Chicago doesnt live and die with the decision of Lebron but that could ultimately be the case.

[CDu]

If Bosh wants to play with either James or Wade, which seems like his intention, then he's not going to Chicago. He could sign in Cleveland for 1 year and $12 M then get a max deal the following summer.

No, he can't do that. Cleveland is already going to be near the cap before re-signing LeBron. They won't have the money to sign Bosh outright unless he signs for the mid-level exemption (which would be a huge paycut). The only way Cleveland can get Bosh is via sign and trade. They will only have around $4-5 million available this offseason (depending upon where the cap is set) for free agents.


Also, what is Toronto likely to get in return for Bosh in a sign and trade? Andrew Bynum has been mentioned a lot, but he's overpaid and not durable. The Heat have Beasley but that's not all that enticing. The Bulls have little of interest outside of Rose/Noah but they are not getting traded.

So Jamison (18 and 8 this year) and Hickson (21 years old, 8 and 5) seem to be a pretty good combo.

Jamison/Hickson may or may not be the best return they could get in a sign and trade, but you're neglecting another very relevant alternative. It's not just a matter of trying to identify the best sign-and-trade. It's also a matter of deciding whether or not it's a good idea to consider a sign-and-trade. Jamison and Hickson are expensive and won't get them anywhere as a team, especially because the two play the same position (and they play the same position as Bargnani). They'd be just as well off letting Bosh walk than taking that sign and trade, because Jamison would put them over the cap next offseason.

[superdave]

No, he can't do that. Cleveland is already going to be near the cap before re-signing LeBron. They won't have the money to sign Bosh outright unless he signs for the mid-level exemption (which would be a huge paycut). The only way Cleveland can get Bosh is via sign and trade. They will only have around $4-5 million available this offseason (depending upon where the cap is set) for free agents.



Jamison/Hickson may or may not be the best return they could get in a sign and trade, but you're neglecting another very relevant alternative. It's not just a matter of trying to identify the best sign-and-trade. It's also a matter of deciding whether or not it's a good idea to consider a sign-and-trade. Jamison and Hickson are expensive and won't get them anywhere as a team, especially because the two play the same position (and they play the same position as Bargnani). They'd be just as well off letting Bosh walk than taking that sign and trade, because Jamison would put them over the cap next offseason.

Can't the Cavs just pay the luxury tax?

[CDu]

Can't the Cavs just pay the luxury tax?

No. The salary cap prevents you from signing external free agents. In order to go outside of the organization to sign free agents, a team has to have enough space under the cap to sign that player. The Cavs don't have enough space under the cap to sign Bosh. The luxury tax is a separate issue. A team is allowed to go over the cap to re-sign their own free agents. Many teams do this. The luxury tax is just a penalty for paying "too much" for their own free agents. So teams with cap space will typically wait until they've signed the free agents that they can afford under the cap, and then they re-sign their own free agents. The Cavs only have maybe ~$4-7 million to play with (depending on exactly where the cap is set), so they can only afford a cheaper free agent.

I think Cleveland's best bet is to hope LeBron re-signs, and then trade Jamison in the 2011-2012 season (when his expiring contract becomes valuable). Basically, LeBron would be taking one more season with a team that looks a lot like this year's team, and then hoping the team can make a really good deadline deal. But if they want to bring in another top-tier guy, they'd have to do it via sign-and-trade. And right now, they don't really bring much to the table via sign and trade.

[BattierD12]

Everything from praise for JJ's performance from SVG, his cooking expertise, to the upcoming thoughts on free agency:

http://www.nba.com/magic/news/denton_feature_060110.html

[sundown]

Yes it's technically doable, but I wouldn't call that a likely scenario. Why would Toronto do that? Hickson isn't all that valuable, and Jamison is, at this point, an overpaid (and under contract for two more years), undersized PF who can't score consistently and can't defend anybody. They'd be just as well off letting Bosh walk for nothing and having cap space for the 2011 offseason than taking on Jamison and Hickson.

As I said, the Cavs would have to get REALLY creative/lucky to pull off a sign-and-trade for another star to go along with James. The Bosh for Jamison/Hickson scenario would constitute as very lucky, as it would require the Raptors making a poor decision.

This is right. There's no chance Toronto would want Jamison: he makes way too much money, especially considering the bad contracts they already have, and putting him at PF would make them the worst defensive team of all time.

[superdave]

This is right. There's no chance Toronto would want Jamison: he makes way too much money, especially considering the bad contracts they already have, and putting him at PF would make them the worst defensive team of all time.

The problem is Bosh prefers the sign and trade, but there's no value out there to make Toronto jump. Beasley? Parting gifts from the Bulls? Bynum? Jamison/Hickson? None are very good options and now Turkoglu wants out as well.

Bosh seems to me to be the second piece to everyone's puzzle, but he's a difficult fit under the cap once you've splurged on Wade/James. Will be fun to watch though!

[MisterRoddy]

The problem is Bosh prefers the sign and trade, but there's no value out there to make Toronto jump. Beasley? Parting gifts from the Bulls? Bynum? Jamison/Hickson? None are very good options and now Turkoglu wants out as well.

Bosh seems to me to be the second piece to everyone's puzzle, but he's a difficult fit under the cap once you've splurged on Wade/James. Will be fun to watch though!

While a sign and trade would make sense for Bosh, what makes you think that he prefers it? Any sources?

[CDu]

The problem is Bosh prefers the sign and trade, but there's no value out there to make Toronto jump. Beasley? Parting gifts from the Bulls? Bynum? Jamison/Hickson? None are very good options and now Turkoglu wants out as well.

Bosh seems to me to be the second piece to everyone's puzzle, but he's a difficult fit under the cap once you've splurged on Wade/James. Will be fun to watch though!

Well, whether or not Bosh prefers a sign and trade is irrelevant - the Raptors don't have to do him any favors. They'll only do the sign and trade if it is best for them, and as you said none of those deals seems good for them. As such, the Raptors can make a stand and say "either you sign with us, or you walk." If they're smart, they'll do this (that's a big "if").

Miami and Chicago would seem the best fits for Bosh (assuming he can't convince James to join him in New York). Either can sign Bosh without a sign and trade. Remember - Miami can simply sign Bosh first, then re-sign Wade to go over the cap. Of course, signing Bosh as a free agent would mean less money for Bosh. But both teams offer great talent to work with, which is I think the bigger issue for Bosh at this point. If his only choice is to re-sign with Toronto or move on as a free agent, he'll do what he has to do to compete for a championship.

You're absolutely right though - this will be very interesting and fun to watch. There are a lot of different scenarios that are reasonably possible, each involving substantial changes in the balance of power.

I think James is the key. If he stays in Cleveland, then Bosh could either go to Miami or Chicago. If James goes to New York, Bosh will probably join him there. If James goes to Chicago, then Bosh will probably go to Miami. But even after James decides, there is a lot that could go on with Bosh, Boozer, Wade, et al.

[A-Tex Devil]

Back to JJ. I wish the Rockets would make a run at him. He has to be right in Daryl Morey's wheelhouse as far as what he brings to the table. Although Morey keeps his sabremetrics so tightly guarded, I couldn't be sure.

So here is the Rockets dream scenario:

1. Sign JJ
2. Sign and trade with Toronto for Chris Bosh -- would probably have to trade Kevin Martin and some expiring contracts and picks.

So your starters are:

Aaron Brooks
Trevor Ariza
Shane Battier
Chris Bosh
Yao Ming

With JJ, Luis Scola, Chase Budinger, Kyle Lowry off the bench.

If Yao stays healthy and Bosh is the super star people think he can be, that's a pretty formidable line up. I don't think Toronto does that trade without Scola, though, and I don't think the Rockets go after JJ if they have Martin and Ariza.

[pfrduke]

While a sign and trade would make sense for Bosh, what makes you think that he prefers it? Any sources?

I can only presume that his preference for it is that it would allow him to get a bigger contract. If he signs as a free agent, his options are max with new team, or max+ with Toronto. If he goes to a new team via sign and trade, he gets the max+ with the new team.

[MisterRoddy]

I can only presume that his preference for it is that it would allow him to get a bigger contract. If he signs as a free agent, his options are max with new team, or max+ with Toronto. If he goes to a new team via sign and trade, he gets the max+ with the new team.

While we don't know what goes on in this guys head, don't you think winning is just as important to this guy. If he were to just sign with say, Miami. Done deal. If he wanted more money and asked for a sign-and-trade to Miami, thats taking 1 or 2 good players from Miami instead of him just signing with the Heat and teaming up with them. If he was younger like Lebron, I could see him leaning towards the most money, but Bosh is entering his prime and many smart players prioritize winning at this stage in their careers.

Not saying you are wrong, but I don't think we can accurately state what Chris Bosh prefers at this point.

[Indoor66]

While we don't know what goes on in this guys head, don't you think winning is just as important to this guy. If he were to just sign with say, Miami. Done deal. If he wanted more money and asked for a sign-and-trade to Miami, thats taking 1 or 2 good players from Miami instead of him just signing with the Heat and teaming up with them. If he was younger like Lebron, I could see him leaning towards the most money, but Bosh is entering his prime and many smart players prioritize winning at this stage in their careers.

Not saying you are wrong, but I don't think we can accurately state what Chris Bosh prefers at this point.

I understand the point, but the difference between signing and a sign and trade is substantial - like $30 million or so more if he goes the sign and trade route. Winning is great, but this is a business decision as well.

[CDu]

I understand the point, but the difference between signing and a sign and trade is substantial - like $30 million or so more if he goes the sign and trade route. Winning is great, but this is a business decision as well.

Well (and I'm sure you know this already - just clarifying for those who might not know), it's not definitely a ~$30+ million difference. That estimate is comparing apples (or 6-year deals) to oranges (7-year deals). The value of a sign-and-trade (or re-signing with the same team) is that the player can get a bit higher raise each year and can get an extra year on the deal. So a lot of the discussion about the $30 million difference is due to the extra year. There's a chance that the player makes up a lot of that difference in money, and a chance that he doesn't. So really, it's a difference of ~$30 million in guaranteed money.

But you're dead on that there is definitely a tradeoff, and it's not an insignificant tradeoff. Ideally of course, Bosh would like to make the max+ deal AND go to a team that is set to contend. But the sign and trade isn't likely to work out so neatly, and he isn't going to contend in Toronto. So it's a matter of how much his new team would have to give up in a sign-and-trade, and how much he really values winning over more money. And how confident he is that he can do well enough to offset some of the lost wages in that 7th year. So as you said, we can't say for sure that winning is more important than the money, because there still is substantial money being left to chance.

[superdave]

That extra year and extra $30 M is really important because the new CBA wont be nearly as generous, probably max 5 years and a smaller salary cap.

[CDu]

That extra year and extra $30 M is really important because the new CBA wont be nearly as generous, probably max 5 years and a smaller salary cap.

That's assuming that the next CBA will last through the length of this coming contract. It may be that another CBA and an entirely different economic situtation is in place 6 years from now than the one that will be in place 1-2 years from now.

Thus, it is entirely uncertain how much (if any) more money will be made by doing a sign-and-trade now. It may be that an economic boom occurs and in 6 years players could sign for even more money. In that case, the sign-and-trade might cost them some money.

All we know is that the sign-and-trade results in ~$30 million more guaranteed. The $30 million more is the largest possible difference (it would assume no contract is signed for that 7th year). It is highly likely that the difference is much smaller, and it's not impossible that the sign-and-trade could cost a player money.

[Indoor66]

That's assuming that the next CBA will last through the length of this coming contract. It may be that another CBA and an entirely different economic situtation is in place 6 years from now than the one that will be in place 1-2 years from now.

Thus, it is entirely uncertain how much (if any) more money will be made by doing a sign-and-trade now. It may be that an economic boom occurs and in 6 years players could sign for even more money. In that case, the sign-and-trade might cost them some money.

All we know is that the sign-and-trade results in ~$30 million more guaranteed. The $30 million more is the largest possible difference (it would assume no contract is signed for that 7th year). It is highly likely that the difference is much smaller, and it's not impossible that the sign-and-trade could cost a player money.

Birds and bushes and all that.

[MisterRoddy]

Well (and I'm sure you know this already - just clarifying for those who might not know), it's not definitely a ~$30+ million difference. That estimate is comparing apples (or 6-year deals) to oranges (7-year deals). The value of a sign-and-trade (or re-signing with the same team) is that the player can get a bit higher raise each year and can get an extra year on the deal. So a lot of the discussion about the $30 million difference is due to the extra year. There's a chance that the player makes up a lot of that difference in money, and a chance that he doesn't. So really, it's a difference of ~$30 million in guaranteed money.

But you're dead on that there is definitely a tradeoff, and it's not an insignificant tradeoff. Ideally of course, Bosh would like to make the max+ deal AND go to a team that is set to contend. But the sign and trade isn't likely to work out so neatly, and he isn't going to contend in Toronto. So it's a matter of how much his new team would have to give up in a sign-and-trade, and how much he really values winning over more money. And how confident he is that he can do well enough to offset some of the lost wages in that 7th year. So as you said, we can't say for sure that winning is more important than the money, because there still is substantial money being left to chance.

I agree that a sign-and-trade to a contendor would be a difficult thing to work out so that all sides are happy. The only way I see a sign-and-trade happening is to the Lakers (perhaps for LO and Bynum). That would make sense, in my estimate. I don't see this happening, but this is the only way I see Bosh getting a S&T to a team that will actually be a contendor (none of the other teams, imo, have the chips so that the Raptors aren't on the short stick).

[A-Tex Devil]

I agree that a sign-and-trade to a contendor would be a difficult thing to work out so that all sides are happy. The only way I see a sign-and-trade happening is to the Lakers (perhaps for LO and Bynum). That would make sense, in my estimate. I don't see this happening, but this is the only way I see Bosh getting a S&T to a team that will actually be a contendor (none of the other teams, imo, have the chips so that the Raptors aren't on the short stick).

Kevin Martin, Luis Scola and a draft pick. If I am Toronto, I might do that ahead of getting nothing.

[Indoor66]

Kevin Martin, Luis Scola and a draft pick. If I am Toronto, I might do that ahead of getting nothing.

I think the bolded is the issue for any of the teams.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Kevin Martin, Luis Scola and a draft pick. If I am Toronto, I might do that ahead of getting nothing.

That trade surprisingly makes a lot of sense. However, Toronto will want to throw in Hedu (disgruntled) for someone with value, like Ariza.

That would probably be the deal breaker for a lot of teams involved in the sign-and-trade: Hedu

[CDu]

Birds and bushes and all that.

Sure, there's definitely a benefit to certainty. I was just clarifying. Players are likely to end up getting more money through a sign-and-trade or re-sign than signing directly with another team. But that's not certain, and in any case the difference is almost certainly not going to be close to $30 million.

It's a very relevant consideration. There's more guaranteed money (and likely more money in the end). The tradeoff is whether the guaranteed money results in playing for a weakened/lesser team, and whether that tradeoff is worth it. That's what we don't know.

[CDu]

I think the bolded is the issue for any of the teams.

It depends. Getting nothing may be better than getting saddled with overpriced players. For example, Toronto trading Bosh for Jamison+Hickson would probably be worse than simply letting Bosh walk. There's a balance between getting talent back and avoiding getting bad contracts back.

[superdave]

It depends. Getting nothing may be better than getting saddled with overpriced players. For example, Toronto trading Bosh for Jamison+Hickson would probably be worse than simply letting Bosh walk. There's a balance between getting talent back and avoiding getting bad contracts back.

Jamison has two years and $28 left on his contract. So it could be eventually used as expiring bait a year from now. Hickson was 8 and 5 this year in a limited role and is only 21. He could eventually be a 16 and 8 type of guy, a starter and 4th scoring option.

I like the idea of Kevin Martin and Scola, but Bosh did not put Houston on his list of teams so he'd likely veto that.

Unless there's a creative way for Bosh to get on Cleveland or to go to Chicago alongside Wade or James, then it seems like Miami is a likely FA destination or LA in S&T for Bynum ($14 per year).

[superdave]

The Big Russian seems primed to make some waves. It looks like they could land one of Turner/Evans/Cousins this year, stink for another year and draft high again in 2011.

Then next summer they could go after Carmelo and other FAs. Perhaps the FA summit this year could include Carmelo and Paul....who could go to Brooklyn as a package. Or they could land Bosh and Joe Johnson this year.

Imagine Lopez, Bosh, Turner, Harris plus another FA in 2011 (Carmelo or Paul). Formidable.

[CDu]

Jamison has two years and $28 left on his contract. So it could be eventually used as expiring bait a year from now. Hickson was 8 and 5 this year in a limited role and is only 21. He could eventually be a 16 and 8 type of guy, a starter and 4th scoring option.

I like the idea of Kevin Martin and Scola, but Bosh did not put Houston on his list of teams so he'd likely veto that.

Unless there's a creative way for Bosh to get on Cleveland or to go to Chicago alongside Wade or James, then it seems like Miami is a likely FA destination or LA in S&T for Bynum ($14 per year).

But getting Jamison in return would prevent Toronto from being in on the free agent market next offseason. They aren't likely to actually get any of those free agents, but that's at least the logic. Hickson is a decent player, but he's completely unproven and plays no defense. And Jamison and Hickson both play the same role of soft frontcourt player (with the same lack of defense) as Bargnani, so neither is a good fit there.

I really don't see a trade that would work for Toronto that would get Bosh to Cleveland. The Cavs just don't have the pieces to match up with Toronto. LA would make a lot more sense, because Bynum is at least the right type of player. I don't know if such a deal would go down, but I'd say it has a better shot than Bosh to Cleveland.

But ultimately, I think Miami makes the most sense (unless Bosh and James go together to New York). It's a nice destination and he could team up with Wade. It might cost him some money, but he might be willing to forego some millions to play in Miami and be competitive alongside Wade.

[MisterRoddy]

Kevin Martin, Luis Scola and a draft pick. If I am Toronto, I might do that ahead of getting nothing.

Remember that Chris has to agree to the deal. He has to be sold on the fact that the team he gets traded to will be a surefire contender and while yes, the Rockets would be a playoff team with Bosh, Im not so sure they would be able to compete with the Lakers or the other top Western Conference teams. Chris will choose the team that he wants to sign with and then figure out if they can do a S&T, not the team choosing who they want to do an S&T with.

[CDu]

Remember that Chris has to agree to the deal. He has to be sold on the fact that the team he gets traded to will be a surefire contender and while yes, the Rockets would be a playoff team with Bosh, Im not so sure they would be able to compete with the Lakers or the other top Western Conference teams. Chris will choose the team that he wants to sign with and then figure out if they can do a S&T, not the team choosing who they want to do an S&T with.

I'd only add a slight edit. It takes all three parties (Bosh, the Raptors, and the potential trade partner) for a sign-and-trade to work. If anyone doesn't like the outcome, they can decline. Your point is very relevant in that Bosh will absolutely have a say-so in any sign-and-trade scenario. But so will the Raptors.

[Big Pappa]

According to sources: LeBron, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh sit down to discuss future together.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5338472

[superdave]

According to sources: LeBron, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh sit down to discuss future together.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5338472

The difficulty for the Heat in this is filling out the rest of the roster. If the Big 3 take up $42-45 million in roster space, they will have to fill the roster with 2nd round picks and veterans at the minimum. Why would LeBron agree to anything until 6-7 of those pieces are in place? I think Chalmers and Beasley are the only two Heat guys under contract right now. Could be tough.

[CDu]

According to sources: LeBron, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh sit down to discuss future together.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5338472

There are already denials that this actually happened. That said, I don't doubt that it happened:
http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/06/29/1706417/wade-reps-dispute-espn-report.html

The rumors are flying fast and furious now. Chicago can get two top-tier guys if they can work a sign-and-trade for one of them using Deng. Miami could get 3 top-tier guys if they can work a sign-and-trade for one of them using Beasley. Those seem to be the top destinations. But there is always NY, and maybe NJ (though things have been quiet there). And there's always the chance that Cleveland re-signs James (that seems like a longer shot now).

I suspect that James and Wade will end up on different teams, though I could be wrong on that. If that's how it works out, then Bosh becomes the swing guy for either Miami or Chicago.

And it'll be interesting to see where Joe Johnson, Boozer, David Lee, and others wind up in all of this.

Chicago has made a lot of moves (and may still make more) to try to get two "max" guys. They could wind up with Boozer/Lee and Joe Johnson, especially if Miami somehow could get all three top guys. That Chicago team would be really good, but they'd perhaps only still be the 2nd/3rd best team in the East.

It should be a really interesting week or two.

[superdave]

Chicago still may be more attractive for LeBron/Bosh because of Deng/Rose/Noah. Also, Deng could be traded for another big or for some shooters.

Additionally, if the Bulls sign LeBron and do a sign-and-trade for Bosh (Deng?) or sign Bosh straight up, Wade could try to get there. I wonder if Rose for Wade in a sign-and-trade would be doable. It would be like the Miami possibility but with Noah on board.

This is fun to read and speculate about.

The Lakers had better add a pg or another scorer.

[CDu]

Chicago still may be more attractive for LeBron/Bosh because of Deng/Rose/Noah. Also, Deng could be traded for another big or for some shooters.

Additionally, if the Bulls sign LeBron and do a sign-and-trade for Bosh (Deng?) or sign Bosh straight up, Wade could try to get there. I wonder if Rose for Wade in a sign-and-trade would be doable. It would be like the Miami possibility but with Noah on board.

This is fun to read and speculate about.

The Lakers had better add a pg or another scorer.

The Bulls can't get all three unless those guys decide to sign for substantially less than the max. They can't even get two of them unless they can either dump salary via a trade of Deng or sign-and-trade Deng for one of those max guys. A Wade-for-Rose sign and trade wouldn't be possible in conjunction with Bosh and James, nor would it be interesting for the Bulls to consider. Rose is young, cheap, and a rising hometown star. Wade is a local kid, but he's getting older (on the back end of his peak) and very expensive. The Bulls are shooting two, but that's the most they can get.

Miami can currently sign Wade and one other max guy right now. If they could dump Beasley's salary or include him in a sign-and-trade for one of those max guys, they could get three. Miami is the only place that could possibly get all three guys unless one or more of those guys takes a huge discount on salary.

The Lakers are way over the cap, so they can't really add pieces unless they trade away equivalent salary. Their team is as it's going to be, most likely.

[superdave]

The Bulls can't get all three unless they decide to sign for substantially less than the max. They can't even get two of them unless they can either dump salary via a trade of Deng or sign-and-trade Deng for one of those max guys.

Miami can sign Wade and one other max guy right now. If they could dump Beasley's salary or include him in a sign-and-trade for one of those max guys, they could get three. Miami is the only place that could possibly get all three guys unless one or more of those guys takes a huge discount on salary.

The Lakers are way over the cap, so they can't really add pieces unless they trade away equivalent salary. Their team is as it's going to be, most likely.

Both Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom have been mentioned in trade rumors this week. Also, the Lakers have three rotation guys in the backcourt who are free agents - Fisher, Brown and Farmar - so they have to resign or look elsewhere. Bynum for Tony Parker? Or Odom for Turkoglu?

Espn mentioned today that LeBron/Wade/Bosh would all be willing to take less than the max to sign in Miami. No state income tax certainly helps. Splitting $42 million 3 ways is much easier that way.

There's all kinds of wildcards out there too - Chris Paul, Beasley/Deng trades, or a godfather offer from the Russian.

[Big Pappa]

Espn mentioned today that LeBron/Wade/Bosh would all be willing to take less than the max to sign in Miami. No state income tax certainly helps. Splitting $42 million 3 ways is much easier that way.


The Heat actually have $44 million in salary cap. At this point, split 3 ways, each player would have to take about 2 million less per year than the max (14.6 instead of 16.6). If the Heat can git rid of Beasly, which they are looking to do, each star would be able to make a little over $16 million each.

[CDu]

Both Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom have been mentioned in trade rumors this week. Also, the Lakers have three rotation guys in the backcourt who are free agents - Fisher, Brown and Farmar - so they have to resign or look elsewhere. Bynum for Tony Parker? Or Odom for Turkoglu?

Espn mentioned today that LeBron/Wade/Bosh would all be willing to take less than the max to sign in Miami. No state income tax certainly helps. Splitting $42 million 3 ways is much easier that way.

There's all kinds of wildcards out there too - Chris Paul, Beasley/Deng trades, or a godfather offer from the Russian.

The problem is that the Lakers are already committed to over $60 million for just Bryant, Gasol, Vujacic, Artest, and Walton (over $80 million with Bynum and Odom). So they can't take on any salary in a trade. They could trade Odom and/or Bynum for a guard at similar price, but that potentially just reallocates their depth issues from backcourt to frontcourt. That might still work out for them in net, but there isn't a way for them to unilaterally improve this offseason.

Miami is the only possible place that could get all three. It's possible that they could agree to take a pay cut. That's a very reasonable possibility. I'll be disappointed if it works out that way. As a Bulls fan, I was very much hoping for at least one of the big three to come to the Bulls. I fear that we'll wind up with Boozer and Joe Johnson instead. Not that those guys are bad (they're probably #4 and #5 on the free agent list), but it's a little less exciting.

[superdave]

The Heat actually have $44 million in salary cap. At this point, split 3 ways, each player would have to take about 2 million less per year than the max (14.6 instead of 16.6). If the Heat can git rid of Beasly, which they are looking to do, each star would be able to make a little over $16 million each.

@chadfordinsider Miami has $43.7 million to sign free agents. Need $49.5 million to sign Wade, Bosh and & Bron to max. Losing Beasley ($4.9) gets them close about an hour ago

Also I think trading Beasley for shooter is a better deal than tossing him for cap space if you do sign all 3.

[superdave]

The problem is that the Lakers are already committed to over $60 million for just Bryant, Gasol, Vujacic, Artest, and Walton (over $80 million with Bynum and Odom). So they can't take on any salary in a trade. They could trade Odom and/or Bynum for a guard at similar price, but that potentially just reallocates their depth issues from backcourt to frontcourt. That might still work out for them in net, but there isn't a way for them to unilaterally improve this offseason.

Miami is the only possible place that could get all three. It's possible that they could agree to take a pay cut. That's a very reasonable possibility. I'll be disappointed if it works out that way. As a Bulls fan, I was very much hoping for at least one of the big three to come to the Bulls. I fear that we'll wind up with Boozer and Joe Johnson instead. Not that those guys are bad (they're probably #4 and #5 on the free agent list), but it's a little less exciting.

If the Bulls miss on all of Wade/Lebron/Bosh then Joe Johnson could be a good pickup because he would fit alongside Rose pretty well. Then I'd look at David Lee ($10 million or so) before Boozer/Stoudamire (seeking max) because you would have a cheaper and better defensive front line.

I would avoid Boozer and Stoudamire altogether to be honest. Too many injuries; too many chemistry questions.

Regardless, even if the Bulls dont hit a grand slam this summer they have the pieces to make the leap with an additional scorer at either the 2 or 4 spot. You should feel good about where you are and where you can get to in 1-2 years.

[CDu]

If the Bulls miss on all of Wade/Lebron/Bosh then Joe Johnson could be a good pickup because he would fit alongside Rose pretty well. Then I'd look at David Lee ($10 million or so) before Boozer/Stoudamire (seeking max) because you would have a cheaper and better defensive front line.

I would avoid Boozer and Stoudamire altogether to be honest. Too many injuries; too many chemistry questions.

Regardless, even if the Bulls dont hit a grand slam this summer they have the pieces to make the leap with an additional scorer at either the 2 or 4 spot. You should feel good about where you are and where you can get to in 1-2 years.

Yeah, I agree that Lee would be the best option after Bosh among the big men. I'm just worried that if the Bulls don't land one of the "big three", they'll panic and sign either Boozer or Stoudamire. My prediction is less of what I think is the best Plan B/C the Bulls could have and more a prediction of what Plan B/C will be.

Johnson is arguably a better fit with Rose than James or Wade (definitely a better fit than Wade) with Rose because he's a better shooter and doesn't need to dominate possessions. I'd still rather have James though, as James is a much better all-around player. And I fear Johnson is a very good player who is about to be paid like a top guy (I don't buy the 4 years, $60 million rumors).

A team of Noah/Lee/Deng/Johnson/Rose would be very good. It's just that after envisioning Noah/Bosh/James/Somebody/Rose, it pales a bit. And it especially pales if Miami does land all three of the big three. Though who knows? Maybe that Bulls team would be deep enough and defensive-minded enough to beat that Miami team.

[InSpades]

I wonder how Miami would actually do if they got all 3. The rest of their lineup would basically be scraps, no? Are those 3 enough?

It seems like Chicago would be a much more attractive place to go play with Rose already there and not making max money.

As a Knicks fan this was always what I thought would be the flaw in their plan. By trading away basically every draft pick they had (and blowing the few they did have) they put themselves in a position where they can't offer Lebron a competitive team to come to.

I think this will end up in disaster for the Knicks. I'd much rather they re-sign David Lee but it seems like they'd rather give max money to Amare. If the Knicks come out of this all giving ridiculous contracts to Amare and Joe Johnson then they will end up in the same place they've been in for the last decade. Trying to compete by taking on bad contracts no one else wants and then eventually deciding to blow the whole thing up. They should have kept their draft picks and rode out the bad contracts. They have to be kicking themselves for not taking Brandon Jennings when they had a chance... then maybe they'd have something to offer to potential free agents.

[CDu]

I wonder how Miami would actually do if they got all 3. The rest of their lineup would basically be scraps, no? Are those 3 enough?

It seems like Chicago would be a much more attractive place to go play with Rose already there and not making max money.

As a Knicks fan this was always what I thought would be the flaw in their plan. By trading away basically every draft pick they had (and blowing the few they did have) they put themselves in a position where they can't offer Lebron a competitive team to come to.

I think this will end up in disaster for the Knicks. I'd much rather they re-sign David Lee but it seems like they'd rather give max money to Amare. If the Knicks come out of this all giving ridiculous contracts to Amare and Joe Johnson then they will end up in the same place they've been in for the last decade. Trying to compete by taking on bad contracts no one else wants and then eventually deciding to blow the whole thing up. They should have kept their draft picks and rode out the bad contracts. They have to be kicking themselves for not taking Brandon Jennings when they had a chance... then maybe they'd have something to offer to potential free agents.

Yeah, the big advantage that Chicago has is that they have Rose and Noah at relatively low prices, and either Deng or the cap space to have two top free agents. Miami has cap space for two guys (like New York), but they also have beaches and no income tax. And they likely have Wade, so they already will have a star in hand with room for one more max guy (or two if those guys really take a discount). So unfortunately for New York, I do think they are third in the pecking order. And they could end up fourth, if teams are excited by New Jersey.

As a Bulls fan, I have somewhat similar worries. There is a part of me that is concerned that somehow the Bulls will end up being the odd man out on the big three, and wind up with good but overpaid second-tier stars instead. That team will probably be among the elite of the East, but it'll still be disappointing. But at least we have Rose and Noah to start with.

[superdave]

Could a Rose and Deng package in a sign-and-trade for Wade work? Seems far-fecthed but the $'s cant be too far off for salray cap purposes.

Also, I think Ray Allen should sit back and see what happens. Then he could be the missing piece in nearly any major scenario and win a few titles.

[CDu]

Could a Rose and Deng package in a sign-and-trade for Wade work? Seems far-fecthed but the $'s cant be too far off for salray cap purposes.

Also, I think Ray Allen should sit back and see what happens. Then he could be the missing piece in nearly any major scenario and win a few titles.

Technically Chicago could do any number of sign-and-trades. They are under the cap, so they can take back salary in return. But Chicago wouldn't want to trade Rose and Deng for Wade. They would rather have Rose (who is becoming a superstar and is younger and cheaper than Wade) and Deng (who could be involved in a different sign and trade or remain on board as a very productive third option). And that sign-and-trade wouldn't get Chicago much closer to signing three top players. That'd just leave another gaping hole at PG.

Basically, Chicago will try to make a different trade (likely involving Deng) to add a second top-tier guy. They aren't going to want to trade Noah or Rose, because those guys are cheap and really productive. Trading Deng in a sign-and-trade for a top star would allow Chicago to get two stars while keeping Rose and Noah intact, and leaving enough salary cap space to fill in the roster with guys who aren't completely awful.

And yes, Allen is in a very interesting position. If he's willing to take a substantial pay cut, he could go wherever James goes and be a floor-spacer.

If I had my druthers (as a Bulls fan), I would love a sign-and-trade of Deng for Bosh, signing James, and signing Allen (or some other fairly cheap SG who can bomb 3s). That'd give a lineup of Rose/Allen/James/Bosh/Noah. That's an unbelievably strong and balanced starting 5. Of course, the odds of that are slim I'm sure.

[muzikfrk75]

Nets traded Yi Jianlian to the Wiz for Quinton Ross

http://sports.espn.go.com/new-york/nba/news/story?id=5340026

It clears $3 million of cap space for the Nets.

Thursday at 1201am = very very interesting.

[superdave]

Just watched the NBA Free Agency Summit with Kornheiser/Wilbon/Simmons/LeBatard. It was a lot of people talking over top of one another, but they threw the idea out there of Redick going into free agency.

I guess I always thought JJ planned to re-sign with Orlando, because he likes it, has made the rotation and they are very close to winning a title.

But he could be a good option for a team that signs 1-2 guys and has some cap space left. He and Ray Allen ought to be highly sought after.

Also, is there any chance Dirk checks out Miami or Chicago if Cuban cannot attract another top tier free agent? Dirk ought to wait a little bit to see what happens.

[Big Pappa]

Paul Pierce will opt out of his contract making him a free agent:

http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/nba/news/story?id=5341636

[Big Pappa]

It looks like the Knicks may not want LeBron as bad as is perceived:

"Yes, we think he's a better player," the source (with knowledge of the Knicks organization) said of Johnson. "He makes other people better. With LeBron's people running the locker room that hurts the organization."

http://web.sny.tv/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100629&content_id=11717746&oid=36320&vkey=18

[ChicagoCrazy84]

As a Bulls fan as well, the talk with the Heat is very dissapointing. What really annoys me about this is Chris Bosh. Why doesn't this guy do his own thing? I feel like he is just following LeBron around and doing what he does. Are you afraid you can't win unless you're paired with the best player in the NBA?

You know who I haven't heard mentioned is Rudy Gay. I feel like he is one of the forgotten this year, but I really like him. Honestly, if I were the Bulls, I would go after Gay before Johnson because he is younger and more versatile and may not cost as much. I am not giving up home on James and Bosh though.

[Eternal Outlaw]

It looks like the Knicks may not want LeBron as bad as is perceived:

"Yes, we think he's a better player," the source (with knowledge of the Knicks organization) said of Johnson. "He makes other people better. With LeBron's people running the locker room that hurts the organization."

http://web.sny.tv/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100629&content_id=11717746&oid=36320&vkey=18

I'm a Knicks fan and this just sounds like they feel they aren't winning the James sweepstakes and are looking to up their sweet talk on Johnson. They haven't dumped salary and looked to James free agent summer for nothing.

[pfrduke]

I'm a Knicks fan and this just sounds like they feel they aren't winning the James sweepstakes and are looking to up their sweet talk on Johnson. They haven't dumped salary and looked to James free agent summer for nothing.

Yeah, that whole business screams CYA. Also, aside from maybe (and I do mean maybe) Joe Johnson and his immediate family, I'm not sure there's anyone who legitimately believes he's a better basketball player than LeBron.

[superdave]

As a Bulls fan as well, the talk with the Heat is very dissapointing. What really annoys me about this is Chris Bosh. Why doesn't this guy do his own thing? I feel like he is just following LeBron around and doing what he does. Are you afraid you can't win unless you're paired with the best player in the NBA?

You know who I haven't heard mentioned is Rudy Gay. I feel like he is one of the forgotten this year, but I really like him. Honestly, if I were the Bulls, I would go after Gay before Johnson because he is younger and more versatile and may not cost as much. I am not giving up home on James and Bosh though.

Bosh has been doing his own thing in Toronto the past few years. That has gotten him nowhere so I think he's wise to pursue Lebron/Wade now as opposed to how Karl Malone did it when he was too old to make things happen anymore.

As for Rudy Gay, most people do not consider him a max player but he will likely get max or close to it by a team that has to over-pay to get people to come (Clippers). This should be called the "Rashard Lewis Scenario." He could be a building block in DC, but DC is not ideal until Arenas is shipped out.

[sagegrouse]

I guess I always thought JJ planned to re-sign with Orlando, because he likes it, has made the rotation and they are very close to winning a title.



JJ has to test the market. This is his first negotiated contract; the other years were a product of the contract formula for lottery picks. Re-signing with Orlando means taking what "the man" thinks is a good deal for JJ. I think he would rather hear what other teams think is "a good deal for JJ," and then giving Orlando a chance to match the offer that "JJ thinks is a good deal for JJ."

As to your main point, I think JJ can be a starter next year in the NBA, and I'd like to see it. Although Stan Van Gundy has been vocal in his praise, JJ is still a bench guy paying variable minutes.

sagegrouse

[Billy Dat]

As a Knick fan, I am now hoping for Johnson/Amare, a chance to grab the last playoff spot, and adding another nice piece in 2010/11 with Eddy Curry's expiring contract. The team had such a big hole to dig out of that I can't cry over not the potential of not getting the King, Wade or Bosh. I am not giving up hope, but I think they are smart to make Johnson/Amare feel the primary love to increase their chances of getting two of the big 5.

The media coverage is entertaining in its own right. My favorite recent angle is the tug of war between Maverick Carter and Worldwide Wes over Lebron. The logic goes that Carter has the most power if Lebron stays in Cleveland and Wes can grab it away if they move to another team.

Here's an idea I haven't heard discussed....what if Lebron, Wade, Bosh, Johnson and Amare all sign with KENTUCKY? Will that mean that Knight, Kanter..et al can opt out of their LOIs?

[COYS]

Here's an idea I haven't heard discussed....what if Lebron, Wade, Bosh, Johnson and Amare all sign with KENTUCKY? Will that mean that Knight, Kanter..et al can opt out of their LOIs?

They'll just be cut and/or forced to transfer. Cal's got no time for marginal talent.

[CDu]

JJ has to test the market. This is his first negotiated contract; the other years were a product of the contract formula for lottery picks. Re-signing with Orlando means taking what "the man" thinks is a good deal for JJ. I think he would rather hear what other teams think is "a good deal for JJ," and then giving Orlando a chance to match the offer that "JJ thinks is a good deal for JJ."

As to your main point, I think JJ can be a starter next year in the NBA, and I'd like to see it. Although Stan Van Gundy has been vocal in his praise, JJ is still a bench guy paying variable minutes.

sagegrouse

Exactly. Just because Redick wants to test the market doesn't mean he doesn't want to stay in Orlando. Exploring his options now means he can potentially get a better deal. Additionally, the impending labor negotiations matter here. It's very possible that a new labor deal might mean less money on new contracts for a guy like Redick (and most if not all of the NBA). So there's a race to get a new deal signed before the labor agreement is renegotiated.

[NSDukeFan]

Here's an idea I haven't heard discussed....what if Lebron, Wade, Bosh, Johnson and Amare all sign with KENTUCKY? Will that mean that Knight, Kanter..et al can opt out of their LOIs?

This is why Knight didn't sign his LOI. Kanter is going to have to play for the pay he gets at UK for at least one year, since he signed his. He should still get some playing time though, as they should be ahead by quite a bit in most of their SEC games.

[superdave]

Exactly. Just because Redick wants to test the market doesn't mean he doesn't want to stay in Orlando. Exploring his options now means he can potentially get a better deal. Additionally, the impending labor negotiations matter here. It's very possible that a new labor deal might mean less money on new contracts for a guy like Redick (and most if not all of the NBA). So there's a race to get a new deal signed before the labor agreement is renegotiated.

What is JJ worth on the open market? $6 to $8 million? if you assume he's a 30 minutes per night guy who can score 12-14 ppg then that seems about right. He'd be wise to stay in Orlando to get the extra year.

I'm not sure Carter and Pietrus are long for the Magic roster so JJ may very well be the full-time starter a year from now even if he comes off the bench next year. He seems to have elevated his reputation with crunch time minutes in this year's playoffs.

[CDu]

What is JJ worth on the open market? $6 to $8 million? if you assume he's a 30 minutes per night guy who can score 12-14 ppg then that seems about right. He'd be wise to stay in Orlando to get the extra year.

I'm not sure Carter and Pietrus are long for the Magic roster so JJ may very well be the full-time starter a year from now even if he comes off the bench next year. He seems to have elevated his reputation with crunch time minutes in this year's playoffs.

The (potential) problem is that there is a great deal of uncertainty as to what the market will be next summer (because of the new CBA). So while he'd be worth $6-8 million this summer if he was a free agent, he might not be worth that much next summer. There's also the possibility that he gets buried again this year and is unable to boost his reputation. Of course, as you note, he could take on a bigger role this year too. It's a gamble.

But remember - there's no harm Redick taking a look. He's gotten a qualifying offer, so the worst case is that he plays for that one year at the qualifying offer. You never know what the market will be for you until you look. If there's a $5-6 million out there this summer, then he should probably take it, as the uncertainty of the new CBA threatens mid-level guys like him.

[SilkyJ]

What is JJ worth on the open market? $6 to $8 million? if you assume he's a 30 minutes per night guy who can score 12-14 ppg then that seems about right. He'd be wise to stay in Orlando to get the extra year.


There was some discussion of this earlier in the year in the Dukies in the NBA thread.

http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?t=17518&highlight=Dukies&page=34

$8 million/year would be pretty high. $5-6 million seems much more reasonable.

As I mentioned in one of my posts in that thread and as CDu pointed out, JJ has a qualifying offer (according to CDu he has received that offer), so for a little context:


qualifying offers are based on the rookie salary scale, so the offer would be for about $3.9 million. Thats a decent salary for a backup 2 guard playing 20-25mpg, but not an enormous amount. Pietrus for example makes $5.3million, Delonte West is making a little over $4mm (there are examples both above and below that number, but basically its a very average number, though MAYBE a tad on the high side).

Also, I'm not sure what you mean in your last sentence above: "he'd be wise to stay in Orlando to get the extra year." To get the extra year of what? If he gets a 5 year, $30 million offer or even say a 3 year $15 million, you think he should forego it in favor of a one year contract worth $3.9 million and another year of sharing minutes with VC and Pietrus? What if he gets hurt? What if he has a crappy year?

The only reason I can think of to do that would be to win a title, which given Otis' statements that Orlando will only be doing some tinkering, doesn't appear likely.

[superdave]

Orlando can offer Redick a contract for one more year than another team, correct? The Bird rule....that was my point.

I guess 2-3 years ago JJ would have gotten $8 million a year, but in this world more like $5 million. Makes sense based on declining revenues.

[SilkyJ]

Orlando can offer Redick a contract for one more year than another team, correct? The Bird rule....that was my point.

I didn't think the Bird rule allowed for an extra year, I thought it just allowed you to exceed the cap in order to re-sign a "veteran" (3+ years). I also thought the Bird rule was for unrestricted FAs, not restricted ones.

I am not an NBA free agent expert, though, so someone please correct me if I'm wrong. I just read wikipedia :D

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Salary_Cap#Larry_Bird_exception

Basically, my understanding is that Orlando can match any offer JJ receives, that is their "benefit," not the ability to offer an extra year. I think they will let the market dictate JJ's value, then decide if JJ is worth that to them. For Orlando, there is little upside in doing anything else, i.e. exceeding another team's offer with a bigger/longer one of their own. The only reason to do that would be if JJ received a 1-2 yr offer and instead of matching it, Orlando offered one that was a tad longer b/c they wanted to secure him for more than just a year or two. Again, I'm no expert, but I've got to imagine JJ gets at least a 3-4 year deal, so that scenario is unlikely.

[CDu]

I didn't think the Bird rule allowed for an extra year, I thought it just allowed you to exceed the cap in order to re-sign a "veteran" (3+ years). I also thought the Bird rule was for unrestricted FAs, not restricted ones.

I am not an NBA free agent expert, though, so someone please correct me if I'm wrong. I just read wikipedia :D

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Salary_Cap#Larry_Bird_exception

Basically, my understanding is that Orlando can match any offer JJ receives, that is their "benefit," not the ability to offer an extra year. I think they will let the market dictate JJ's value, then decide if JJ is worth that to them. For Orlando, there is little upside in doing anything else, i.e. exceeding another team's offer with a bigger/longer one of their own. The only reason to do that would be if JJ received a 1-2 yr offer and instead of matching it, Orlando offered one that was a tad longer b/c they wanted to secure him for more than just a year or two. Again, I'm no expert, but I've got to imagine JJ gets at least a 3-4 year deal, so that scenario is unlikely.

Correct. The Bird rule doesn't really come into play for restricted free agents. That's a rule for true free agents. For a restricted free agent, the qualifying offer is the key. Orlando (assuming they made the qualifying offer, which I assume they did) now can match any offer made by another team for Redick within 7 days of the formal offer. If they choose to match, they get to keep him, no further discussion. There is no need to offer an additional year (though technically they could offer it if they wanted).

If nobody offers, then Redick could sign for the qualifying offer and become a free agent next summer. That's less appealing for a guy who has been stuck as a reserve, especially now with next year's impending labor issues. Or I guess the Magic could work with Redick to negotiate a longer-term deal. But if there is no competing offer, Orlando may choose to gamble next offseason.

There are basically three possible outcomes (sign with a new team, sign with Orlando, or take Orlando's qualifying offer and become a free agent next year), but in any case Redick should at least explore the market. There's very little risk in doing so, and potentially a big benefit.

[JasonEvans]

ESPN is doing a countdown clock to the start of free agency at 12:01am tonight. Silly.

One of their experts, I forget which one, says that Atlanta is going to offer Joe Johnson the max for 6 years. I love the Hawks. I want them to be great. I think Joe Johnson is a fine player and I have enjoyed his tenure on the team... but paying him a max contract for the next 6 years is a baaad move that will hamstring this franchise down the road and prevent them from making other moves. Build around Horford and Josh Smith. They are the pieces that matter the most.

ESPN also says a deal appears to be in place to get Bosh to Miami in a sign and trade, but that appears really premature. Wade is staying in Miami, that is a sure-thing. Also, Boozer will go to whichever of Chicago/Miami does not get Bosh.

--Jason "who knows where Lebron is going, but supposedly he is going to decide in the next few days-- by July 5th" Evans

[Big Pappa]

ESPN is doing a countdown clock to the start of free agency at 12:01am tonight. Silly.


Free Agency has officially begun.

Chris Bosh quote on playing with Lebron and Wade in Miami, "I don't see it happening, I don't see how it would work."

[blazindw]

Free Agency has officially begun.

Chris Bosh quote on playing with Lebron and Wade in Miami, "I don't see it happening, I don't see how it would work."

Haha, good thing they all met in Miami this past weekend and talked about how to make it work. I think each of them take a little less in order to make it work, and Miami gets the Big 3.

[MisterRoddy]

Unfortunately, I haven't been able to comment since I've been on vacation for the past few days but, as a Heat fan I would rather get Bosh and some combo of Felton/Blake and Salmons/Haywood...something like that. I would love to see Wade/James/Bosh but #1 I don't see it happening, #2 It's Wades team no matter what and the best player in the league in Lebron should be the #1 player on his team wherever he goes. #3 I actually want a competitive NBA next year.

[brevity]

Free Agency has officially begun.

Whoo! Now what?

The media outlets act like July 1 was some kind of decision day. It isn't. It occurs to me that the most shocking decision LeBron can make is an early one.

I want to see the Wade/James/Bosh thing happen in Miami, just for its sheer experimental value. The 3 of them, plus a group of young players and nobodies, would be a fantastic success or an even more fantastic failure.

Speaking of morbid curiosity, I'm also looking forward to this game of musical chairs, where about 15 teams are trying to grab one (or more) of about 8 chairs. I want horrible, horrible things to happen to the GMs of the teams left standing, with a lot of cap space and absolutely no star wattage to show for it. Anything short of "We were idiots" is an unacceptable excuse, and their fans should laugh in their faces until, and after, their firings.

I would also enjoy it if every free agent stayed put -- no defections, no sign and trades -- just so media analysts would be forced to apologize for wasting everyone's time, and experience a great deal of self-loathing.

This is a great time to hate the NBA.

[CDu]

A big question in this whole free agency mess will be Chris Bosh. How ademant is he that he get the max-max (i.e., sign-and-trade)? If he prefers the money over the destination, then he may force himself to a team that precludes teaming with Wade and James, because the Bulls and Heat can't really do an interesting sign-and-trade. Pretty much only Houston can offer a palatable sign-and-trade. If he's truly interested in joining up with one of the other big stars, then Miami (with Wade) seems like the best fit.

As a Chicago fan, I am worried about three possibilities:
1. somehow the big three decide to take less money and play in Miami together (I think this is pretty unlikely though)
2. Bosh does a sign-and-trade with Houston, and James decides to play in Miami or stay in Cleveland.
3. Bosh signs with Miami, and James decides to stay in Cleveland.

Then we'd be scrambling to throw money (and almost certainly wind up overpaying) for one or two of Lee/Boozer/Stoudemire/Johnson. I'm not excited about paying max dollars for any of those four, but I suspect that the losers of the big three sweepstakes are going to wind up paying max dollars for these guys. Too many teams have too much cap space to not at least appear to have gotten a big-time player.

[theAlaskanBear]

A big question in this whole free agency mess will be Chris Bosh. How ademant is he that he get the max-max (i.e., sign-and-trade)? If he prefers the money over the destination, then he may force himself to a team that precludes teaming with Wade and James, because the Bulls and Heat can't really do an interesting sign-and-trade. Pretty much only Houston can offer a palatable sign-and-trade. If he's truly interested in joining up with one of the other big stars, then Miami (with Wade) seems like the best fit.

As a Chicago fan, I am worried about three possibilities:
1. somehow the big three decide to take less money and play in Miami together (I think this is pretty unlikely though)
2. Bosh does a sign-and-trade with Houston, and James decides to play in Miami or stay in Cleveland.
3. Bosh signs with Miami, and James decides to stay in Cleveland.

Then we'd be scrambling to throw money (and almost certainly wind up overpaying) for one or two of Lee/Boozer/Stoudemire/Johnson. I'm not excited about paying max dollars for any of those four, but I suspect that the losers of the big three sweepstakes are going to wind up paying max dollars for these guys. Too many teams have too much cap space to not at least appear to have gotten a big-time player.

WHile Bosh/LeBron or just LeBron would be great for Chicago...I think you are underestimating the value of the other free agents. If you put a good scoring forward like Boozer in Chicago that would really open the offense the up. Add a good SG like Johnson and they are a contender no matter where LeBron goes.

I also might throw up a little if LeBron goes to the Heat. I hate Pat Riley with a passion!

[roywhite]

Any insight where Carlos Boozer may end up?

Is he packaging himself with some others, or just looking on his own?

[JasonEvans]

A few comments--

1) If Miami dumps Beasley off on someone (which would not be easy but would not be impossible), they would have enough cap space to pay max deals to all 3 of Wade, Bosh, and Lebron.

2) That is not gonna happen. I just don't see Lebron going to Miami to play second fiddle to Wade (it will always be his team). Plus, I think Wade and Lebron are not a good combination together anyway. They each need the ball in their hands and to be dictating the action. They need to be surrounded by a scoring big man and a dead-eye shooter.

3) Bosh apparently really wants a sign and trade so he can make an extra million+ a year (and lock in an extra year on the deal) by re-signing with Toronto and then being traded. Bosh wants this because he does not have the outside endorsement income of the other big-name free agents. Of course, this presents a problem where he would actually be higher paid than Wade or James if he teamed up with them. Egos matter here.

4) The sneaky play out there is for someone to trade for Melo. Denver is trying to get him to sign an extension, but if they cannot they plan to move him rather than lose him and get nothing via free agency.

--Jason "don't count out the Nets in all this!" Evans

[CDu]

WHile Bosh/LeBron or just LeBron would be great for Chicago...I think you are underestimating the value of the other free agents. If you put a good scoring forward like Boozer in Chicago that would really open the offense the up. Add a good SG like Johnson and they are a contender no matter where LeBron goes.

I also might throw up a little if LeBron goes to the Heat. I hate Pat Riley with a passion!

I agree with you on that scenario. If the big three don't manage to team up in Miami (which I suspect is unlikely for several reasons), then the Bulls could still be potentially the best in the East with the right moves. My fear is that those guys would go elsewhere, and the feeding frenzy after those guys are gone will drive up the price on the "leftovers." Chicago can't afford two max contracts, so if those second-tier guys then get max contract offers, Chicago can only get one of them. That leaves them filling in either the SG spot or the PF spot with a lesser player, or trading Deng away in order to overpay for either Johnson or Boozer. So we'd be replacing Hinrich and Deng with, say, Boozer and Johnson (or worse). That's an upgrade, for sure.

And I guess adding to my concern scenario is that Johnson may decide not to sign with the Bulls. In that scenario, it may be that the Bulls show some sense, and if they strike out on James they sign one second-tier player to a max deal and distribute what's left to replace what's missing on the team with a mid-level guy or two.

[CDu]

A few comments--

1) If Miami dumps Beasley off on someone (which would not be easy but would not be impossible), they would have enough cap space to pay max deals to all 3 of Wade, Bosh, and Lebron.

2) That is not gonna happen. I just don't see Lebron going to Miami to play second fiddle to Wade (it will always be his team). Plus, I think Wade and Lebron are not a good combination together anyway. They each need the ball in their hands and to be dictating the action. They need to be surrounded by a scoring big man and a dead-eye shooter.

3) Bosh apparently really wants a sign and trade so he can make an extra million+ a year (and lock in an extra year on the deal) by re-signing with Toronto and then being traded. Bosh wants this because he does not have the outside endorsement income of the other big-name free agents. Of course, this presents a problem where he would actually be higher paid than Wade or James if he teamed up with them. Egos matter here.

4) The sneaky play out there is for someone to trade for Melo. Denver is trying to get him to sign an extension, but if they cannot they plan to move him rather than lose him and get nothing via free agency.

--Jason "don't count out the Nets in all this!" Evans

I agree on 1 and 2. Three is only partly true. Bosh would sign for the same amount as Wade if he gets the sign-and-trade with Miami and Wade re-signs with Miami. James would be the only guy making a bit less.

[superdave]

Then we'd be scrambling to throw money (and almost certainly wind up overpaying) for one or two of Lee/Boozer/Stoudemire/Johnson. I'm not excited about paying max dollars for any of those four, but I suspect that the losers of the big three sweepstakes are going to wind up paying max dollars for these guys. Too many teams have too much cap space to not at least appear to have gotten a big-time player.

I would not pay max dollars for any of these guys. David Lee could be the best deal in the bunch at $10-11 million per. But Amare and Carlos are often injured and quite simply not good enough to lead a team deep in the playoffs as the #1 option. So why pay them #1 $? Has the NBA not learned this simple lesson?

In 8 seasons, Amare has played in 79+ games 5 times, but in those other 3 seasons he played 55, 3 and 53 games. He has had microfractures surgery (!) and some sort of eye fracture that forces him to wear a mask. His rebounding stats for the playoffs this year: 6.6 per game. Ouch. No max for you!

In 8 seasons, Carlos has never played a full 82 games but has hit 81 twice and has seasons of 51, 33, 37 games. He is still only 28 so this should be his peak. However, his ppg peaked at 21.1 in the 2007-8 season and his rebounds peaked at 11.7 in 2006-7 so his trendline is bad. Good second or third banana? Yep, but not a max guy.

On the other hand, David Lee just turned 27 and his points and rebounds have increased every year now. A good trend. He only has 5 NBA seasons under his belt meaning less wear and tear on his body. If he can be had at a couple million less per season than the other 2, then great. He also can guard both 4s and 5s.

If I were an enterprising GM I would give Lee 5 years and $55 million and maybe go up to $60. Imagine a starting lineup in Chicago of Rose, Ray Allen, LeBron, Lee and Noah with Deng off the bench. Sign Lee and you can spare some change for another player like Ray Allen.

[CDu]

Any insight where Carlos Boozer may end up?

Is he packaging himself with some others, or just looking on his own?

That's a good question. I think all of the other guys sort of depend on what the big three do. I think it makes sense for those guys to wait and see what the big three do. Once those guys move, there will be teams (Chicago, NY, NJ, Miami) with money to burn. Plus, if the big three go their separate ways (very possible, then the opportunities open up.

For Boozer, if Bosh doesn't end up in Miami then Boozer becomes the logical choice (I'm assuming James won't go there). If Bosh ends up in Miami, then Chicago looks very appealing with Noah to take defensive duties inside and Rose as a pick-and-roll partner. Those would seem like the best guesses in my book.

[JasonEvans]

Any insight where Carlos Boozer may end up?

Is he packaging himself with some others, or just looking on his own?

Everyone says he is the 2nd choice to Bosh. He will likely wait until Bosh signs somewhere and then he will get his offers. I would expect him to get near-max offers from multiples of Chicago, NJ, Miami, and NY. I actually think he is more likely to end up with LeBron than Bosh is.

-Jason

[JasonEvans]

I agree on 1 and 2. Three is only partly true. Bosh would sign for the same amount as Wade if he gets the sign-and-trade with Miami and Wade re-signs with Miami. James would be the only guy making a bit less.

You are right, but this will not work. They do not have enough cap space to sign 2 guys to max-home team deals and also sign LeBron to a max deal too.

If these guys really wanted to play together, they could get it done. Wade and Lebron could take a little bit less to make a deal happen because they make so much in outside endorsement money it should not matter all that much to them to take a million less on their NBA contract. How much does 1 million matter if you are making $30 million+ from salary and endorsements?

--Jason "it should not matter-- but it does" Evans

[muzikfrk75]

Heard on ESPN that Lebron wants to make a decision by July 5th. I expect that none of the big names will decide until after he does.

[CDu]

I would not pay max dollars for any of these guys. David Lee could be the best deal in the bunch at $10-11 million per. But Amare and Carlos are often injured and quite simply not good enough to lead a team deep in the playoffs as the #1 option. So why pay them #1 $? Has the NBA not learned this simple lesson?

In 8 seasons, Amare has played in 79+ games 5 times, but in those other 3 seasons he played 55, 3 and 53 games. He has had microfractures surgery (!) and some sort of eye fracture that forces him to wear a mask. His rebounding stats for the playoffs this year: 6.6 per game. Ouch. No max for you!

In 8 seasons, Carlos has never played a full 82 games but has hit 81 twice and has seasons of 51, 33, 37 games. He is still only 28 so this should be his peak. However, his ppg peaked at 21.1 in the 2007-8 season and his rebounds peaked at 11.7 in 2006-7 so his trendline is bad. Good second or third banana? Yep, but not a max guy.

On the other hand, David Lee just turned 27 and his points and rebounds have increased every year now. A good trend. He only has 5 NBA seasons under his belt meaning less wear and tear on his body. If he can be had at a couple million less per season than the other 2, then great. He also can guard both 4s and 5s.

If I were an enterprising GM I would give Lee 5 years and $55 million and maybe go up to $60. Imagine a starting lineup in Chicago of Rose, Ray Allen, LeBron, Lee and Noah with Deng off the bench. Sign Lee and you can spare some change for another player like Ray Allen.

Yeah I completely agree that none of those guys is worth max dollars. However, if they wait for the big three to sign, then there may be a free agent frenzy. If teams like New York, New Jersey, and Chicago are all sitting there with a ton of cap space, these guys are going to end up overpaid because some GM is going to offer too much just to make sure his team doesn't get stranded with nobody and a ton of cap space.

I don't think the GMs are dumb. I just think that there is so much pressure on so many teams to get somebody that they'll end up overpaying simply to avoid getting nobody. And the more of these teams that are left standing with cap space, the more likely it is that those other free agents get wildly overpaid.

For example, if Bosh goes to Houston (or LA, but I really think that's unlikely) in a sign-and-trade, Wade stays in Miami (I think this is a given), and James somehow decides to stay at home, then you have Chicago, New York, Miami, and New Jersey each with plenty of room to sign a max guy (New York with plenty of room for two). Two of those teams will absolutely have to sign at least one star (Chicago and New York). One will want to make a big splash (New Jersey). And the other will want to appease their star with another star (Miami). That's a recipe for some not-so-star players getting really paid.

[CDu]

You are right, but this will not work. They do not have enough cap space to sign 2 guys to max-home team deals and also sign LeBron to a max deal too.

If these guys really wanted to play together, they could get it done. Wade and Lebron could take a little bit less to make a deal happen because they make so much in outside endorsement money it should not matter all that much to them to take a million less on their NBA contract. How much does 1 million matter if you are making $30 million+ from salary and endorsements?

--Jason "it should not matter-- but it does" Evans

I was merely referring to the situation in which Wade and Bosh come together, not all three. The Heat could do a sign-and-trade for Bosh and pay Wade the max, with no problem. In that scenario, they'd be paid equally. Of course, I don't think Toronto will be interested in what Miami has to offer in a sign-and-trade, so if that's where Bosh wants to go, he'll likely have to do it at a cost to him (i.e., no sign-and-trade).

[flyingdutchdevil]

I was merely referring to the situation in which Wade and Bosh come together, not all three. The Heat could do a sign-and-trade for Bosh and pay Wade the max, with no problem. In that scenario, they'd be paid equally. Of course, I don't think Toronto will be interested in what Miami has to offer in a sign-and-trade, so if that's where Bosh wants to go, he'll likely have to do it at a cost to him (i.e., no sign-and-trade).

Sign-and-trade would be great for Miami. It would allow them to get Bosh and give away Beasley, Chalmers, and basically anyone else which would, in turn, allow Miami to sign 3 max contracts. The downside of this scenario, of course, is that Miami would be left with 3 super All-Stars and....um....0 role players.

[CDu]

Sign-and-trade would be great for Miami. It would allow them to get Bosh and give away Beasley, Chalmers, and basically anyone else which would, in turn, allow Miami to sign 3 max contracts. The downside of this scenario, of course, is that Miami would be left with 3 super All-Stars and....um....0 role players.

Yeah, but when you consider that Chalmers is overpaid and Beasley isn't a good pairing with Bosh, then I'm sure they'd rather get James/Bosh/Wade and go with a bunch of minimum guys.

That said, I don't think that Toronto will be interested in Chalmers and Beasley and draft picks for Bosh. They'll tell him to walk before they take that deal (at least I hope that's the case).

[superdave]

Rick Bucher reported this AM that Riley flew to LA today for meetings with Amare, Carlos and Joe Johnson.

I guess that has some implications for LeBron/Bosh. My guess is it would mean LeBron does not intend to go to Miami for various reasons and Bosh will wait to see what LeBron does before he makes his move. Bosh has basically reiterated waiting on LeBron several times here lately.

Also, Joe Johnson is reportedly going to re-sign with Atlanta and Dirk with Dallas. Finally, Houston was Bosh's first meeting today - he's from Dallas I believe.

The Carmelo and Chris Paul trade possibilities might be the best scenarios for teams like the Knicks and Nets.

[CDu]

Rick Bucher reported this AM that Riley flew to LA today for meetings with Amare, Carlos and Joe Johnson.

I guess that has some implications for LeBron/Bosh. My guess is it would mean LeBron does not intend to go to Miami for various reasons and Bosh will wait to see what LeBron does before he makes his move. Bosh has basically reiterated waiting on LeBron several times here lately.

Also, Joe Johnson is reportedly going to re-sign with Atlanta and Dirk with Dallas. Finally, Houston was Bosh's first meeting today - he's from Dallas I believe.

The Carmelo and Chris Paul trade possibilities might be the best scenarios for teams like the Knicks and Nets.

I think that's a reasonable assumption regarding James. I think James to Miami was the least likely scenario.

If this is true, then I'm thinking that James goes to Chicago, Boozer or Amare joins Wade in Miami, Bosh does a sign-and-trade with Houston (they're the best fit for a sign-and-trade), and New York and New Jersey wind up overpaying for guys like Lee and Stoudemire/Boozer.

The Joe Johnson scenario is interesting. If he does stay, Atlanta remains an upper-tier team but not quite over the hump. And that REALLY puts the pressure on the other teams with cap space to find someone useful. Or, he could be bluffing simply to milk out a few more dollars from NY/NJ/Chicago.

[superdave]

Since the salary cap is expected to fall for next season, could a team structure a deal with escalating salary - ie $10m in 2010, $11m in 2011, etc? I think this is common, but could be wrong. That could technically give a team a little more space now to get a 2nd player under contract.

Also, with a new CBA a year or two away, does it make more sense for LeBron and Wade to sign 5-6 year deals or 3 year deals right now? Uncertainty is a bad thing in contracts, but one thing we can be certain of is that LeBron would still be at his peak in 3 years.

[superdave]

Here's a quick list of guys who have been mentioned in trade rumors the past few weeks. Any one of them could shake up where free agents go and the chase for a title.

Carmelo
Chris Paul
Tony Parker
Andrew Bynum
Lamar Odom (w/ Bynum as a package together? seems unlikely)
Turkoglu
Vince Carter
Gilbert Arenas

[CDu]

Since the salary cap is expected to fall for next season, could a team structure a deal with escalating salary - ie $10m in 2010, $11m in 2011, etc? I think this is common, but could be wrong. That could technically give a team a little more space now to get a 2nd player under contract.

Also, with a new CBA a year or two away, does it make more sense for LeBron and Wade to sign 5-6 year deals or 3 year deals right now? Uncertainty is a bad thing in contracts, but one thing we can be certain of is that LeBron would still be at his peak in 3 years.

Escalating contracts are indeed common, but there is a set amount that a contract can escalate, specifically to avoid teams backloading contracts to free agents. Your contract can only increase by X% each year. So the "max" deal is very specific, even with regard to the first year. If you take less than the max in the first year, you compound that loss each additional year of the contract. All of the discussions about max contracts assume this escalating structure already. Teams will almost always structure free agent contracts with the lowest cap hit up front (Chicago's deals with Wallace and Hinrich are the rare exceptions).

As for the CBA, there is no definite answer. There's a chance that the CBA is more restrictive on contracts, and a chance that it's less restrictive. But my guess would be that taking the money now is the smart move. For one thing, the current economy suggests that a more restrictive CBA will be the result. For another, there's no guarantee that these guys will stay healthy. Especially for Wade (who is older and has an injury history), I'd say it's a given that he should take the max deal. For Bosh, that's probably true as well. The question then is only really relevant for James. And again, I'd still lean toward taking the certainty rather than risking bad economics or injury.

[muzikfrk75]

Celtics may be targeting JJ:

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news;_ylt=AvhHXQsxji94wO7uCVeOwve8vLYF?slug=ys-freeagentbuzz063010


Celtics looking to trade Wallace’s contract

Boston Celtics GM Danny Ainge is trying to use Rasheed Wallace’s contract in trade talks, a move that would allow the Celtics to keep their midlevel exception, league sources said.

Wallace has yet to file retirement papers, so the $6.32 million owed him next season and $6.79 million in 2011-12 would come off a team’s books after Wallace is traded to them. They could do a deal and not take on his money. Ainge is trying to use the Wallace contract to bring back a power forward or center to replace Wallace and the injured Kendrick Perkins.

The Celtics could then use their midlevel exception for a different player. Several sources believe that Ainge’s target is Orlando’s J.J. Redick, who is a restricted free agent.

[JasonEvans]

Interesting poll at the bottom of this story (http://www.peachtreehoops.com/2010/6/30/1544909/joe-johnson-watch-the-day-before) about Joe Johnson on one of the Atlanta Hawks Blogs (Peachtree Hoops).

The poll simply asks, "Do you want the Hawks to re-sign Joe Johnson?" It does not talk about signing him to a max deal or a less-than-max deal.

The results, right now, are 73% no, 27% yes.

It may be that the NO camp just assumes he can only be resigned for the max or something darn close to it. It would be interesting to see how many NO folks would switch if they had the option of singing him for only 3 or 4 years (it is the 6 year deal thing that scares me the most about him).

Anyway, I know not many folks care that much about this, but I am hoping Joe goes to the Knicks or somewhere else so the Hawks can build around a better core. I'd take a year or two of being worse so we can be better in the long-run.

--Jason "heck, maybe the Hawks can get lucky in the lottery and land a stud there if they get bad for a year or two" Evans

[CDu]

Some interesting early commitments:

Salmons to Bucks: 5 years $39 million
Milicic (that's right, Darko) to T'Wolves: 4 years $20 million
Gooden to Bucks: 5 years $32 million

Those are some... debatable moves.

[Big Pappa]

Some interesting early commitments:

Salmons to Bucks: 5 years $39 million
Milicic (that's right, Darko) to T'Wolves: 4 years $20 million
Gooden to Bucks: 5 years $32 million

Those are some... debatable moves.

I won't even comment on Darko, but those are decent moves for the Bucks. Salmons is a good player that can score without requiring the ball in his hands all them time. If you put Gooden next to a healthy Bogut that is a formidable front line with a good backcourt - Salmons, Redd, and Brandon Jennings.

[CDu]

I won't even comment on Darko, but those are decent moves for the Bucks. Salmons is a good player that can score without requiring the ball in his hands all them time. If you put Gooden next to a healthy Bogut that is a formidable front line with a good backcourt - Salmons, Redd, and Brandon Jennings.

As a Bulls fan, I have a different opinion of Gooden and Salmons from their time in Chicago. The price is probably right, but I don't think they're good decisions (especially jointly) by the Bucks.

[JasonEvans]

Some interesting early commitments:

Salmons to Bucks: 5 years $39 million
Milicic (that's right, Darko) to T'Wolves: 4 years $20 million
Gooden to Bucks: 5 years $32 million

Those are some... debatable moves.

Ages of these players in the final season of these contracts--

Salmons - 36
Milicic - 29
Gooden - 34

Is there any way that at 35 or 36 year old John Salmons making close to $9 million per year (I am sure the above contract, which averages almost $8 mill per season, escalates each year) will not be a burdensome contract to some team?

-Jason "still, the Bucks seem to be keeping a decent core team together and should again be a playoff team next year" Evans

[Wildling]

Some interesting early commitments:

Salmons to Bucks: 5 years $39 million
Milicic (that's right, Darko) to T'Wolves: 4 years $20 million
Gooden to Bucks: 5 years $32 million

Those are some... debatable moves.

This is why I know I couldn't own a NBA franchise (not that it is, or was ever an option).

If any of these players agents came to me asking for this amount of money, I would throw them out of the meeting.

Milicic would be lucky to get 4 years $3 million if I was paying him. Well, really, if I own a franchise, this guy is not even an option to sign.

[Big Pappa]

Good article about the insanity of the contract offered Joe Johnson by the Hawks, and possibly could be offered by other teams including the Knicks:

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/blog/ball_dont_lie/post/Joe-Johnson-to-sign-a-ridiculous-deal-with-the-A?urn=nba,252877

My favorite quote, "It's that bad. Six years, and $119 million dollars for a player regarded as a second option at best on a great team. At best. Johnson will be 29 years of age to start this contract, 35 to end it, so Atlanta will get his one peak season (unless last year's run of over 21 points and a combined 9.5 rebounds/assists was the best we've seen), and then the downfall. At about $20 million a year."

[tbyers11]

I won't even comment on Darko, but those are decent moves for the Bucks. Salmons is a good player that can score without requiring the ball in his hands all them time. If you put Gooden next to a healthy Bogut that is a formidable front line with a good backcourt - Salmons, Redd, and Brandon Jennings.

As a long suffering Bucks fan who remembers Don Nelson driving a tractor across the state when I was in elementary school, I like the Salmons move and am not sold on the Gooden move.

My caveat on the Salmons move is why did they just trade for Maggette. My guess is that Redd is really done after multiple knee injuries. I agree that Gooden could be part of a formidable front line if he lives up to his potential. But hasn't that been said about him several times over the 7-8 years as part of 8-9 different teams?

[JasonEvans]

Good article about the insanity of the contract offered Joe Johnson by the Hawks, and possibly could be offered by other teams including the Knicks:

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/blog/ball_dont_lie/post/Joe-Johnson-to-sign-a-ridiculous-deal-with-the-A?urn=nba,252877

My favorite quote, "It's that bad. Six years, and $119 million dollars for a player regarded as a second option at best on a great team. At best. Johnson will be 29 years of age to start this contract, 35 to end it, so Atlanta will get his one peak season (unless last year's run of over 21 points and a combined 9.5 rebounds/assists was the best we've seen), and then the downfall. At about $20 million a year."

My favorite quote:


"As it stands, this is the worst free-agent contract I have ever seen. Roll over Eddy Curry, tell Jim McIlvaine the news."

I guess this author does not recall the Hawks signing John Koncak back in 1989 to a contract that hamstrung the franchise for a half a decade.

--Jason "Koncak's deal was for 6 years... anyone wanna guess at what was an absurd 6-year deal back in 1989?" Evans

[CDu]

If Joe Johnson does indeed re-sign with Atlanta, that puts my Bulls in a tight spot. If they miss out on LeBron and Bosh goes to Miami or Houston (via sign-and-trade), suddenly they are looking at second-tier options at PF (for whom they'll probably have to overpay) and really-far-down-the-list options at SG. Yikes.

[CDu]

My favorite quote:


"As it stands, this is the worst free-agent contract I have ever seen. Roll over Eddy Curry, tell Jim McIlvaine the news."

I guess this author does not recall the Hawks signing John Koncak back in 1989 to a contract that hamstrung the franchise for a half a decade.

--Jason "Koncak's deal was for 6 years... anyone wanna guess at what was an absurd 6-year deal back in 1989?" Evans

I had remembered it as being something like $15 million total over 6 years ($2.5 million per). Turns out it was actually a bit less ($13 million). But yeah, his contract was pretty big at the time.

[SilkyJ]

If Joe Johnson does indeed re-sign with Atlanta, that puts my Bulls in a tight spot. If they miss out on LeBron and Bosh goes to Miami or Houston (via sign-and-trade), suddenly they are looking at second-tier options at PF (for whom they'll probably have to overpay) and really-far-down-the-list options at SG. Yikes.

I assume you're saying Boozer and Amar'e are 2nd tier options at PF? Come on those guys are 20/10 guys and have been a heck of lot further in the playoffs than Bosh. The options at SG are not that great, but you put one of those guys with a budding star like rose and a very solid 2nd/3rd banana in Deng out on the wing and you've got yourself a team that can make a serious run in the playoffs. Maybe not win a championship just yet, but conference finals potential, methinks...of course that last part depends on where these other guys land, but its hard for me to see them being worse than the 3 seed in the east, which may now become the better conference.

[superdave]

If Joe Johnson does indeed re-sign with Atlanta, that puts my Bulls in a tight spot. If they miss out on LeBron and Bosh goes to Miami or Houston (via sign-and-trade), suddenly they are looking at second-tier options at PF (for whom they'll probably have to overpay) and really-far-down-the-list options at SG. Yikes.

If this is the Bulls' scenario, I'd overpay David Lee before I'd throw the $ at Amare or Boozer.

Also, the Bulls should look to trade for a 2 guard (if they cant get Ray Allen or JJ Redick...or both) because they could use all that cap space as an asset.

But to panic and overpay for FAs is very very baaaaad.

[Big Pappa]

If this is the Bulls' scenario, I'd overpay David Lee before I'd throw the $ at Amare or Boozer.


You would take David Lee over Amare or Boozer? Please explain.

[superdave]

You would take David Lee over Amare or Boozer? Please explain.

http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showpost.php?p=418864&postcount=103

In short, Amare and Carlos on the decline, often injured and never have been #1 options. But they will demand max money. So get the same production (plus better d) out of Dave Lee at a couple million less per year.

[MisterRoddy]

http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showpost.php?p=418864&postcount=103

In short, Amare and Carlos on the decline, often injured and never have been #1 options. But they will demand max money. So get the same production (plus better d) out of Dave Lee at a couple million less per year.

David Lee is not a better defender. That's why the Knicks don't want him back, all offense, no defense.

[superdave]

David Lee is not a better defender. That's why the Knicks don't want him back, all offense, no defense.

You may be right that his defense is not great but Amare and Carlos are arguably worse.

Additionally, Amare and Carlos peaked several years ago.

[MisterRoddy]

You may be right that his defense is not great but Amare and Carlos are arguably worse.

Additionally, Amare and Carlos peaked several years ago.

For Carlos, you might be right (even though he's still only 28.) But Amare is basically the same age as lee, averages over a block per game more than him, and was arguably the MVP of the second half of last season. Give me Amare over Lee.

[theAlaskanBear]

You may be right that his defense is not great but Amare and Carlos are arguably worse.

Additionally, Amare and Carlos peaked several years ago.

David Lee only started to score when Walsh blew apart the team and traded everyone else away...I think it remains to be seen if he is a great PF for a good team. It is easy for bad teams to have mediocre players with inflated stats.

I think we are underselling Boozer here. Naturally, health is an issue, but its also an issue with Amare, and Carlos has surpassed Amare as the better forward in my opinion (particularly rebounding/passing/shooting). He avged 20-11 last year, so your assertion that he peaked several years ago is hardly accurate. 3 of the last 4 years hes been healthy and in those years he scores 20 and 10.

Chad Ford at ESPN.com said that Boozer might be a target for a sign and trade to Orlando to team with Howard (which is a great idea imo). The Magic have been shopping Gortat (great fit in Utah), Brandon Bass, and Vince Carter.

[theAlaskanBear]

For Carlos, you might be right (even though he's still only 28.) But Amare is basically the same age as lee, averages over a block per game more than him, and was arguably the MVP of the second half of last season. Give me Amare over Lee.

Amare is truely a terrrrrrrrible defender. I watched the Suns all playoffs this year, and I was shocked at how awful he was. He doesnt rebound well either. He's a one-dimensional player...without Nash to feed him the perfect pass and to set him up...I see him disappointing many fans of a new team.

[Wildling]

Amare is truely a terrrrrrrrible defender. I watched the Suns all playoffs this year, and I was shocked at how awful he was. He doesnt rebound well either. He's a one-dimensional player...without Nash to feed him the perfect pass and to set him up...I see him disappointing many fans of a new team.

Took the words right out of my mouth!

I watched the Suns through their playoff run, and I saw what you saw, Amare is an awful, I mean awful defender! I remember a couple of games that Doug Collins was doing (he might have done them all with Marv?), he made several comments on how poor Amare's defense was. I remember Doug using the telestrator on many occasions explaining all the mistakes Amare was making on the defensive end. Comical!

Your right about him on offense too. Steve Nash makes him look really good with the pick and roll offense they run. Without Steve Nash feeding him the ball on pick and rolls, or in the post, people are in for a big surprise I think.

[CDu]

I assume you're saying Boozer and Amar'e are 2nd tier options at PF? Come on those guys are 20/10 guys and have been a heck of lot further in the playoffs than Bosh. The options at SG are not that great, but you put one of those guys with a budding star like rose and a very solid 2nd/3rd banana in Deng out on the wing and you've got yourself a team that can make a serious run in the playoffs. Maybe not win a championship just yet, but conference finals potential, methinks...of course that last part depends on where these other guys land, but its hard for me to see them being worse than the 3 seed in the east, which may now become the better conference.

Yes, I'm including Boozer and Stoudemire as 2nd tier options (which is consistent with what pretty much everyone is saying). And I stand by that for a number of reasons:

Boozer is 3 years older than Bosh (which would be relevant in the latter years of the deal), and he's had a bad injury history. And he's not the scorer or defender that Bosh is.

Stoudemire is 2 years older than Bosh (still relevant) and also has a nasty injury history. He's not nearly as versatile a scorer as Bosh, and his scoring stats are inflated by having played with Steve Nash for his career. And he's an atrocious defender and not as good a rebounder as Bosh.

And referencing playoff success is not really fair, given that both Boozer and Stoudemire have played with all-stars/MVPs surrounding them. Boozer has had Williams and Kirilenko (when Kirilenko was healthy) with good role players. Stoudemire has had Steve Nash and a variety of talented players to work with. Bosh has largely had poor talent to work with compared to those other guys.

I'm not saying that Stoudemire and Boozer are chopped liver. I'm just saying that they are a definite step down from Bosh for me, and I don't think those two deserve a max contract (which I think they'll end up getting).

[muzikfrk75]

Windhorst:


Here's what I hear from yesterday: LeBron interested in Nets pitch but not so much NY. NY trying at moment to secure Amare' to help cause

http://twitter.com/pdcavsinsider

[Big Pappa]

In short, Amare and Carlos on the decline, often injured and never have been #1 options. But they will demand max money. So get the same production (plus better d) out of Dave Lee at a couple million less per year.

I disagree, see below.


David Lee only started to score when Walsh blew apart the team and traded everyone else away...I think it remains to be seen if he is a great PF for a good team. It is easy for bad teams to have mediocre players with inflated stats.

I think we are underselling Boozer here. Naturally, health is an issue, but its also an issue with Amare, and Carlos has surpassed Amare as the better forward in my opinion (particularly rebounding/passing/shooting). He avged 20-11 last year, so your assertion that he peaked several years ago is hardly accurate. 3 of the last 4 years hes been healthy and in those years he scores 20 and 10.

Chad Ford at ESPN.com said that Boozer might be a target for a sign and trade to Orlando to team with Howard (which is a great idea imo). The Magic have been shopping Gortat (great fit in Utah), Brandon Bass, and Vince Carter.

Great post. David Lee is a good player, but he is not on the same level as Booz or Amare. I also agree that I would take Carlos over Amare (and certainly Lee) because he is the least one-dimensional player of them all. David Lee's numbers jumped dramatically after the Knicks cleaned house in anticipation of signing Lebron. The only reason they kept Lee was because of his expiring contract. In short, Lee is a very hard-working, skilled offensive player, but IMO will not be more than a good role player. Amare and Boozer especially have a great chance of being a solid #2 option on a really good team.

[muzikfrk75]

CSN has confirmed that Wade and Bosh are both currently at Henry Thomas' office with #Bulls management

[Big Pappa]

Steve Blake signs with the Lakers - 4 years $16 million. Not bad for a Maryland grad:

http://lakersblog.latimes.com/lakersblog/2010/07/steve-blake-reaches-fouryear-deal-to-join-lakers.html

[muzikfrk75]

We'll probably know something by Tuesday, maybe Monday night.

Here's the video that the Cavs used today durng their presentation to Lebron: http://www.nba.com/cavaliers/morethanaplayer_splash_100630.html

[El_Diablo]

Joe Johnson staying in ATL for six years, $119 million:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5354426

[Big Pappa]

Joe Johnson staying in ATL for six years, $119 million:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5354426

Insane. Maybe the dumbest max contract in the history of basketball.

[El_Diablo]

Insane. Maybe the dumbest max contract in the history of basketball.

You seem to be forgetting Allan Houston...

[COYS]

Insane. Maybe the dumbest max contract in the history of basketball.

Man, this contract really bums me out, as a Hawks fan. I would much rather build around Horford and Smith. I don't think either will carry the team to a title, but they're younger and more likely to be worth their money in the long term. Adding a few key veterans around those guys and a point guard (a position that seems to be continuously forgotten by the Hawks) would make for a consistently competitive team. 6 years at max dollars for a 29 year old second tier shooting guard . . . ouch. The only thing I will say is that Johnson relies less on athleticism to make plays and more on his sheer size. He will grow older but he won't get shorter. If he can improve his overall shooting ability, his size will allow him to be an effective scorer for much longer than a 6-5 shooting guard who relies on his athleticism to make plays. Regardless, he' still not worth max dollars.

[Big Pappa]

You seem to be forgetting Allan Houston...

Very different. Allan was a stud when the Knicks signed him and had injury problems.


6 years at max dollars for a 29 year old second tier shooting guard . . . ouch.

Nailed it.

[El_Diablo]

Man, this contract really bums me out, as a Hawks fan. I would much rather build around Horford and Smith. I don't think either will carry the team to a title, but they're younger and more likely to be worth their money in the long term. Adding a few key veterans around those guys and a point guard (a position that seems to be continuously forgotten by the Hawks) would make for a consistently competitive team. 6 years at max dollars for a 29 year old second tier shooting guard . . . ouch. The only thing I will say is that Johnson relies less on athleticism to make plays and more on his sheer size. He will grow older but he won't get shorter. If he can improve his overall shooting ability, his size will allow him to be an effective scorer for much longer than a 6-5 shooting guard who relies on his athleticism to make plays. Regardless, he' still not worth max dollars.

I agree. Those last couple years of the contract are going to be difficult to justify when his production starts slipping.

[El_Diablo]

Very different. Allan was a stud when the Knicks signed him and had injury problems.

Actually, his production was very similar to Johnson's, although Houston had never averaged 20 ppg. And he was older than Johnson.

Strategically, it was a very bad contract for the Knicks, especially given their payroll and the level of interest he was receiving from other teams. It hamstrung the franchise and eventually cost Layden his job. Ask any Knicks fan--it was a terrible decision.

[Big Pappa]

Actually, his production was very similar to Johnson's, although Houston had never averaged 20 ppg. And he was older than Johnson.

Strategically, it was a very bad contract for the Knicks, especially given their payroll and the level of interest he was receiving from other teams. It hamstrung the franchise and eventually cost Layden his job. Ask any Knicks fan--it was a terrible decision.

I agree that it was a bad decision, but he was older by a few months, not really a good argument. Houston had just come off a season where he shot .436 from 3, .483 from the field, and 84% from the line. He was coming off his career high in steals and almost (3 points short) his career high in points. Even though he was older, it looked like Houston was still on the rise. On the other hand, Johnson has declined in points his last three years straight and shot .458 from the field, .373 from 3, and 81% from the line last year.

Houston's decision turned out to be very bad, but my point is that when he signed it, it wasn't as ridiculous as the one Joe Johnson just signed.

[El_Diablo]

I agree that it was a bad decision, but he was older by a few months, not really a good argument. Houston had just come off a season where he shot .436 from 3, .483 from the field, and 84% from the line. He was coming off his career high in steals and almost (3 points short) his career high in points. Even though he was older, it looked like Houston was still on the rise. On the other hand, Johnson has declined in points his last three years straight and shot .458 from the field, .373 from 3, and 81% from the line last year.

Houston's decision turned out to be very bad, but my point is that when he signed it, it wasn't as ridiculous as the one Joe Johnson just signed.

I think you were looking at the wrong year. When he re-signed with the Knicks in 2001, Houston was 30 years old. He was 14 months older than Johnson is now, and he was coming off a year in which he shot .449 from the field and .381 in threes. Since he was basically just a shooter, he didn't do much else. 3.6 rebounds. 2.2 assists. 0.67 steals. Yawn. Joe Johnson got more rebounds, more than double the assists, and almost double the steals.

But that's all beside the point. The Knicks were already $20 million over the cap at the time, putting their team salary at over $80 million for 2001-02. So they basically had to pay double for that contract (via the luxury tax). Oh, and they also had Sprewell and Rice at SG...the trio collectively earned about $40 million that year.

Houston wasn't even a free agent when they re-signed him. He had an OPTION to opt out, but there weren't any takers around the league for an aging one-dimensional player. Layden jumped the gun and overpaid big time. To illustrate how bad of a decision it was given the makeup of the team, consider this: the cap in 2005-06 was $61.7 million dollars. In 2005-06, the New York Knicks' payroll was $124 million, putting them $62.3 million above the cap, which the Knicks had to also pay to the league. In fact, the 2005 CBA adopted a luxury tax shedding rule that came to be known as the "Allan Houston Rule" (which, ironically, the Knicks used on another player because they figured Houston would retire before long).

That may not have been the dumbest contract ever, but it was far worse (given the circumstances) than what the Hawks agreed to with Johnson.

[MisterRoddy]

I agree that it was a bad decision, but he was older by a few months, not really a good argument. Houston had just come off a season where he shot .436 from 3, .483 from the field, and 84% from the line. He was coming off his career high in steals and almost (3 points short) his career high in points. Even though he was older, it looked like Houston was still on the rise. On the other hand, Johnson has declined in points his last three years straight and shot .458 from the field, .373 from 3, and 81% from the line last year.

Houston's decision turned out to be very bad, but my point is that when he signed it, it wasn't as ridiculous as the one Joe Johnson just signed.

Alright, just because Houston was a better shooter doesn't mean he was he better player. Here are the numbers

Houston's contract year: 19.7 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 2.2 apg
Johnson's contract year: 21.3 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 4.9 apg

Joe Johnson, as evidence by the statistics has a more all-around game than Houston had.

Also, while Joe experienced a 3 point dip in his ppg stats from the 06-07 to 07-08 season, he has been rather steady in his production since.

Yes, while both contracts were very bad, 10 years ago, potentially bad contracts weren't talked about nearly as much as they are now, with the help of the media. So the perception could also be a reason why some forget about Houston's contract.
I don't think we can actually determine who's contract is worse seeing as we have to let Johnson's play out, but one thing to consider is that Houston's contract definitely handicapped the Knicks and is part of the reason why the Knicks had such a downfall.

Another candidate is Eddy Curry at 6 years, 60 million.

One common denominator in all of these bad contracts is that the Knicks were involved with all (Hmmm...)
- The Knicks offered Johnson a 5 year, 92 mil (IIRC) contract and have been trying, unsuccessfully, desperately to pry him away from Atlanta.

[Big Pappa]

Yes, while both contracts were very bad, 10 years ago, potentially bad contracts weren't talked about nearly as much as they are now, with the help of the media. So the perception could also be a reason why some forget about Houston's contract.
I don't think we can actually determine who's contract is worse seeing as we have to let Johnson's play out, but one thing to consider is that Houston's contract definitely handicapped the Knicks and is part of the reason why the Knicks had such a downfall.


Potentially bad, my point exactly. Although Houston's contract is considered one of the worst in history now, it wasn't when he signed it. After Patrick Ewing's wrist injury, Houston was the Knicks leading scorer up until he signed the contract. I understand that Joe is the same role for the Hawks, but seeing younger guys that the Hawks have to build around (Smith and Horford). The Knicks had Camby who couldn't (and still can't) play a whole year. Other than him, they didn't have any young and really talented players to build around. I realize that it ended up handicapping them for players in the future, but the Knicks looked down their bench and saw no one else that could be the face of their franchise. When the Hawks look they see budding stars in Smith and Horford.

[El_Diablo]

Although Houston's contract is considered one of the worst in history now, it wasn't when he signed it.

I strongly disagree with that. Maybe it didn't make a lot of news down in Texas, or maybe you just weren't following the Knicks, but it was highly criticized in New York at the time. It was seen as a knee-jerk response to an early playoff exit, and one that was completely unnecessary given his age, limitations, declining ability, the other Knicks players at his position, the fact that he still had a year on his contract, and the lack of any competitive market for his services. At least with Johnson there were other teams meeting with him who appeared willing to pay max dollars. Not so in 2001.

The fact that the Hawks have a couple good young players is not that relevant. They're both under contract for next year, so it wasn't an either-or choice. And they're both under contract the following year. And one of them is under contract for another year after that. I think--if anything--it actually makes MORE sense to give a max contract to a 29-year-old SG when you have a chance of seeing the rest of your roster improve over the next two years (Hawks in 2010) than to give a max contract to a 30-year-old SG when the rest of the cupboard is mainly a bunch of aging SG and undersized PF (Knicks in 2001). Why not let him opt out so we can get a PG or C? Why not offer him a three-year deal? These were questions all of us fans were left wondering that summer. Layden should have looked at his roster and realized that it wasn't tenable, but instead of reloading or showing some restraint, he jumped the gun and spent WAY more than the market was dictating. It was highly questioned at the time, and the chants of "Fire Layden" started soon after. There was even a website devoted to him: firescottlayden.com, probably a first in the "fire____.com" oeuvre.

Now, the Hawks aren't in a position where they need to reload for the future. They have a chance to make some noise in the East. I bet you the Hawks win more than 67 games over the next two years, which is what the Knicks did after signing Houston. The Hawks' decision today makes more sense, I think, then the Knicks' decision to sacrifice their future for a chance at getting to .500.

[El_Diablo]

That said, I still think the Hawks overpaid. But it's not the worst ever.

[MisterRoddy]

Potentially bad, my point exactly. Although Houston's contract is considered one of the worst in history now, it wasn't when he signed it. After Patrick Ewing's wrist injury, Houston was the Knicks leading scorer up until he signed the contract. I understand that Joe is the same role for the Hawks, but seeing younger guys that the Hawks have to build around (Smith and Horford). The Knicks had Camby who couldn't (and still can't) play a whole year. Other than him, they didn't have any young and really talented players to build around. I realize that it ended up handicapping them for players in the future, but the Knicks looked down their bench and saw no one else that could be the face of their franchise. When the Hawks look they see budding stars in Smith and Horford.

When analysts (or anybody else for that matter) talk about Joe Johnson's contract, really they are talking about the potential for it to end up being bad. We can't really call it a bad contract right now because, for all we know, Joe can average 20 for all 6 of the seasons, we just don't know. We can make fairly educated guesses but there's just no way to accurately predict or determine which of Houston's or Johnson's contract is worse until Johnson's contract has run it's course.

As for Josh Smith and Al Horford, the NBA is growing towards the idea that you need that star player to win the Finals (Wade, Bryant, Anthony, Roy) and that's what you build around. I would hesitate to say that either one of them would be even the 2nd option on a championship team. Horford is more of a role player (like Joakim Noah) who will never really be a star in the league but will put up solid numbers throughout his career. Josh Smith has the potential to be somewhat of a star (think Rasheed Wallace in terms of production) but he needs to overcome immaturity and rely less on pure athleticism and develop more post moves. Now the Hawks do have a very talented point guard in Jeff Teague who the Hawks are very excited about. If he can have a bit of a breakout year, Josh and Al have solid years, Marvin performs better and stays healthy, and Bibby and Crawford provide veteran leadership, perhaps they can make a playoff run., and perhaps get to the Finals (I doubt it but its possible). You take away Joe Johnson from the equation and you are looking at a team destined for the lottery next year. Would you rather have a potential Top 3 team in the East or a lottery team? And yes, Joe probably would have left for the Knicks with Amare had the Hawks not given him the max. It was a bad decision in all likelihood but sometimes you have to look at it from all aspects.

[JasonEvans]

DWade is making noise like he might go to the Bulls. He told a Miami paper that he will have to strongly consider family concerns in picking a team. As we all know, he and his wife recently split up and his kids are living with his wife in... wait for it... Chicago. So, he can move to Chi-town and be with his family or he can stay in Miami and not see nearly as much of his kids.

Hmmmm, which would you pick?

--Jason "I say Chicago comes out of all this with Wade and Boozer" Evans

[WiJoe]

DWade ... and his wife recently split up ...

New understatement of the decade.

:eek:

[Big Pappa]

That said, I still think the Hawks overpaid. But it's not the worst ever.

Fair enough.

[Big Pappa]

DWade is making noise like he might go to the Bulls. He told a Miami paper that he will have to strongly consider family concerns in picking a team. As we all know, he and his wife recently split up and his kids are living with his wife in... wait for it... Chicago. So, he can move to Chi-town and be with his family or he can stay in Miami and not see nearly as much of his kids.

Hmmmm, which would you pick?

--Jason "I say Chicago comes out of all this with Wade and Boozer" Evans

Very interesting scenario. I still think this is a ploy to keep Chicago busy while Miami lures other FAs.

[MisterRoddy]

--Jason "I say Chicago comes out of all this with Wade and Boozer" Evans

There is no way D-Wade goes to Chicago without Chris Bosh. Since free agency started, they have "coincidentally" seen each other twice while doing interviews with teams and have had dinner with each other. Even before free agency began, they had dinner with each other once and met during the so-called "summit." I would say its a safe bet that they'll play with each other next year be it Chicago or (crossing my fingers) Miami.

[Class of '94]

DWade is making noise like he might go to the Bulls. He told a Miami paper that he will have to strongly consider family concerns in picking a team. As we all know, he and his wife recently split up and his kids are living with his wife in... wait for it... Chicago. So, he can move to Chi-town and be with his family or he can stay in Miami and not see nearly as much of his kids.

Hmmmm, which would you pick?

--Jason "I say Chicago comes out of all this with Wade and Boozer" Evans

FYI, I believe espn reported a week or two ago that Wade was granted full custody of kids by an Illinois court. Apparently, his wife appears to have some psychological "issues".

Therefore, he doesn't necessarily have to move to Chicago to be with his kids; his kids could live with him in Miami. Saying that, it might be hard to uproot his kids from the Chicago area and have them "start over" in a new place in terms of school and making new friends. Plus, him mom is in Chicago and could give him support in helping him raise his kids. Thus, Chicago could be actually be a very attractive option.

[MisterRoddy]

Very interesting scenario. I still think this is a ploy to keep Chicago busy while Miami lures other FAs.

I have been covering this relentlessly and being a Heat fan, I can confidently state that it's not a ploy. He is seriously considering the Bulls offer right now and anyone thinking clearly would.
- Heat wouldn't have anybody on their roster but minimum FAs and rookies he did sign a contract and brought a Bosh or Boozer with him and maybe some other smaller name FAs. - instead of a 3rd max guy.
- Chicago is his hometown.
- As JasonEvans stated, his kids live in Chicago
- Chicago has a nice, young, nucleus with Rose, Noah, and Gibson that would fit perfectly with Wade and Bosh/Boozer.

Seeing as all of these are very good reasons, Chicago has a very legitimate pitch to Wade and anyone in their right mind would consider the Bulls in this situation.

[JasonEvans]

If Wade goes to Chicago along with Boozer or Bosh and Lebron stays in Cleveland (or goes anywhere but Miami), it is easy to see a scenario where Miami gets no one of any real special value and their roster is utterly empty. It could be a total disaster for them. They currently have only 2 players -- neither of whom are very good -- under contract. Yikes!!

I guess NY is in the same boat, but Miami felt like it was in a ton better position than NY in all this.

--Jason "there may be some super-teams formed by all this cap space lunacy-- but there may be some really, really horrible ones too" Evans

[Big Pappa]

The Knicks had a second meeting with Lebron's people today (without Lebron) to talk about the rumors encircling the Knicks and an offer to Amare. I found this sentence particularly interesting:

"The Knicks told James in their initial meeting with him Thursday that if he signs with New York, he can choose which free agent big man he would like to play alongside, be it Stoudemire, Chris Bosh, Carlos Boozer or David Lee."

But, Amare has been telling media that the Knicks already offered him and that he is recruiting Carmelo and Tony Parker to come to NY next year to join him. Full story:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5355032

[MisterRoddy]

If Wade goes to Chicago along with Boozer or Bosh and Lebron stays in Cleveland (or goes anywhere but Miami), it is easy to see a scenario where Miami gets no one of any real special value and their roster is utterly empty. It could be a total disaster for them. They currently have only 2 players -- neither of whom are very good -- under contract. Yikes!!

I guess NY is in the same boat, but Miami felt like it was in a ton better position than NY in all this.

--Jason "there may be some super-teams formed by all this cap space lunacy-- but there may be some really, really horrible ones too" Evans

As it is very possible that Wade does go to Chicago, I just don't see it happening. He has just made so much of a big deal that he wants to stay in Miami, I just don't see him leaving. If both Wade and Bosh go to Miami and James stays in Cleveland, there is also a possibility that Chicago gets shut out in this free agent frenzy.
What makes this just as, if not more possible, is the fact that Chicago doesn't have enough room for 2 full max guys, and if they were to get 2 of Wade, James, Bosh, or Boozer, one would have to take a pay cut and the way free agency has played out thus far, I just don't see that happening. Its very realistic that Wade and Bosh go to Mia, James stays in Cle, Boozer goes to either Orl (through s&t) or NJ, and Chicago is only left with Lee or someone of lesser talent.

These are just a few more scenarios to think about.

IMO, Chicago is more likely to end up empty handed than Miami. It could be the inner-Heat fan talking, but it is a very plausible thought.

[theAlaskanBear]

As it is very possible that Wade does go to Chicago, I just don't see it happening. He has just made so much of a big deal that he wants to stay in Miami, I just don't see him leaving. If both Wade and Bosh go to Miami and James stays in Cleveland, there is also a possibility that Chicago gets shut out in this free agent frenzy.
What makes this just as, if not more possible, is the fact that Chicago doesn't have enough room for 2 full max guys, and if they were to get 2 of Wade, James, Bosh, or Boozer, one would have to take a pay cut and the way free agency has played out thus far, I just don't see that happening. Its very realistic that Wade and Bosh go to Mia, James stays in Cle, Boozer goes to either Orl (through s&t) or NJ, and Chicago is only left with Lee or someone of lesser talent.

These are just a few more scenarios to think about.

IMO, Chicago is more likely to end up empty handed than Miami. It could be the inner-Heat fan talking, but it is a very plausible thought.

I disagree, Chicago is way better situation than the Heat. Maybe Wade has seen through Pat Riley's schtick and is off to greener pastures? Chicago can easily pull a trade to have room for two max contracts. The Heat dont even have players to trade that make their situation more tenable (unless they go for 0 roster spots under contract).

[MisterRoddy]

I disagree, Chicago is way better situation than the Heat. Maybe Wade has seen through Pat Riley's schtick and is off to greener pastures? Chicago can easily pull a trade to have room for two max contracts. The Heat dont even have players to trade that make their situation more tenable (unless they go for 0 roster spots under contraict).

I think people are forgetting that the Heat actually had a better record than the Bulls with 47 wins compares tp the Bulls' 41. Along with Wade, the Heat basically only had Haslem, Beasley (at times), Richardson, and O'neal (at times). These players are easily replaceable with most likely better players and its very realistic that the Heat do end up keeping Beasley. You add Chris Bosh and you are probably looking at a championsip contender. Yes, the Bulls would have a better roster if they got the duo of Wade an Bosh but its not like that team in Miami wouldl be a pushover, especially with Riley at the helm,

[CDu]

If Wade goes to Chicago along with Boozer or Bosh and Lebron stays in Cleveland (or goes anywhere but Miami), it is easy to see a scenario where Miami gets no one of any real special value and their roster is utterly empty. It could be a total disaster for them. They currently have only 2 players -- neither of whom are very good -- under contract. Yikes!!

I guess NY is in the same boat, but Miami felt like it was in a ton better position than NY in all this.

--Jason "there may be some super-teams formed by all this cap space lunacy-- but there may be some really, really horrible ones too" Evans

Wade and Bosh are both doing a documentary on the process. So the cynic in me believes that they are simply building the "we're not going to Miami" rumors to build suspense for their movie. It's not very interesting to say "we're going to Miami" right on the first day. So to add drama, I think Wade has been playing up the Chicago angle even though he fully plans to return to Miami.

I suspect that Wade and Bosh are going to Miami. I think the question now is whether James decides to stay in Cleveland or go to Chicago or New York. Between Chicago and Miami, I'd say that Chicago is the bigger threat to not land a big-name free agent at this point.

[theAlaskanBear]

Wade and Bosh are both doing a documentary on the process. So the cynic in me believes that they are simply building the "we're not going to Miami" rumors to build suspense for their movie. It's not very interesting to say "we're going to Miami" right on the first day. So to add drama, I think Wade has been playing up the Chicago angle even though he fully plans to return to Miami.

I suspect that Wade and Bosh are going to Miami. I think the question now is whether James decides to stay in Cleveland or go to Chicago or New York. Between Chicago and Miami, I'd say that Chicago is the bigger threat to not land a big-name free agent at this point.

While I try not to read too much into anything: LeBron extending his announcement until his Cleveland BB camp is over does not bode well for the Cavaliers.

I think that LeBron ends up with the Nets above NYC or Chicago. I think for LeBron it is important not to follow in Jordan's shoes. NYC is already playing its option B. There is a really nice interview with Prokhorov at Sekou Smith's hangtime blog. The guy gets it.

Cleveland, or the Nets. If I'm wrong I'll eat a shoe...just not a jordan shoe :D

[Chicago 1995]

I think people are forgetting that the Heat actually had a better record than the Bulls with 47 wins compares tp the Bulls' 41. Along with Wade, the Heat basically only had Haslem, Beasley (at times), Richardson, and O'neal (at times). These players are easily replaceable with most likely better players and its very realistic that the Heat do end up keeping Beasley. You add Chris Bosh and you are probably looking at a championsip contender. Yes, the Bulls would have a better roster if they got the duo of Wade an Bosh but its not like that team in Miami wouldl be a pushover, especially with Riley at the helm,

Miami's record last year vs. Chicago's is irrelevant, given the gutting of the heat roster that's occured. Further ,if those guys are so easily replaceable, Miam would have replaced them last year. It's not as simple to replace Udonis Haslem, for example, as you make out. The Bulls have a much, much, much stronger core. I'd pose that with Derrick Rose, the Bulls already have one max free agent on the roster. Miami might sign three marquee guys, but the rest of the roster is flotsam and jetsam. The Bulls, signing 2 to join Rose, still have Noah and Gibson. There's no way the Heat can match that.

I'd also note that both Portland and Utah are interested, apprently, in Luol. If either of those deals go down as rumored, the Bulls will clear enough space for 2 max deals.

The Bulls might get shut out. If they do, it will be because of the misperceptions about Reinsdorf, legit fears about GarPax, state income tax, and lifestyle. Looking at rosters, the Bulls are thanks to Rose and Noah, so far ahead of the others, that I don't think there's second place.

[MisterRoddy]

Miami's record last year vs. Chicago's is irrelevant, given the gutting of the heat roster that's occured. Further ,if those guys are so easily replaceable, Miam would have replaced them last year. It's not as simple to replace Udonis Haslem, for example, as you make out. The Bulls have a much, much, much stronger core. I'd pose that with Derrick Rose, the Bulls already have one max free agent on the roster. Miami might sign three marquee guys, but the rest of the roster is flotsam and jetsam. The Bulls, signing 2 to join Rose, still have Noah and Gibson. There's no way the Heat can match that.

I'd also note that both Portland and Utah are interested, apprently, in Luol. If either of those deals go down as rumored, the Bulls will clear enough space for 2 max deals.

The Bulls might get shut out. If they do, it will be because of the misperceptions about Reinsdorf, legit fears about GarPax, state income tax, and lifestyle. Looking at rosters, the Bulls are thanks to Rose and Noah, so far ahead of the others, that I don't think there's second place.

What are you talking about saying they wouldve replaced them by now? The Heat, as is everyone else, are waiting for the big free agents to decide, and even before this year, they had those guys because their contracts were coming off the books this year.

The Heat would most likely sign Wade and then Bosh (either outright or sign and trade for him sending a 16 mil tpe and a few picks to toronto) The Heat would then use the remaining 13 mil on solid role players like Mike Milker, Udonis Haslem, (Raymond Felton, Brendan Haywood <--- Yes, I know they are UNC guys but my team needs good role players and they are solid contributors in the NBA. The Heat would then be able to sign around 4-5 minimum contracts like Raja Bell, Chris Duhon, Kurt Thomas, etc.
This is just showing you that the Heat can sign Wade and Bosh and still create a championship team next year, especially with Pat Riley.

Also, Mike Beasley is no slacker. He averaged 15 points last year (more than Noah or Gibson, and thats in limited minutes) This could very well be a breakout year for him. It was just those two slip-ups in the past off-seasons with immaturity, but if he can get that in check, this coukd be a breakout year for him. So I dont think its fair to bring up the Heats core and not even mention Beasley.

[blazindw]

Despite the Knicks talk (of getting Amar'e and then Carmelo next season), I still think the Nets are the frontrunner for LeBron. They've got a nice nucleus in place, they will be in NYC in 2 seasons, and they can bring in another big man (Bosh or Boozer) with ease. There are also reports out of Detroit that the Nets are pursuing Joe Dumars to be the next GM after Rod Thorn's contract expires on the 15th. LeBron has always been a fan of the Pistons organization and how they built the team from a team of "nobodys" into a perennial championship contender, and Joe Dumars (despite my disappointment at how he's handled the past couple seasons) has been the architect of the team. Having Joe D as a GM could give LeBron the sense that not only will they do this year right, but still keep room to make the Nets better down the road in future seasons.

A team of Harris, LeBron, Bosh/Boozer, Lopez and Favors could be what brings LeBron to the Big Apple, not Amar'e, LeBron, Gallinari, and the possibility of getting Melo or Parker next season.

[Big Pappa]

D-Wade is back in Miami and a group of Heat fans were waiting for him. Unfortunately, they weren't at the right terminal. Maybe Chi-Town is the right place for Wade, with a much more educated fan base; no offense Roddy.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5355523

My favorite quote, "He'll hear that we were here," said 20-year-old fan David Figueroa. "That's enough, right?"

[MisterRoddy]

D-Wade is back in Miami and a group of Heat fans were waiting for him. Unfortunately, they weren't at the right terminal. Maybe Chi-Town is the right place for Wade, with a much more educated fan base; no offense Roddy.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5355523

My favorite quote, "He'll hear that we were here," said 20-year-old fan David Figueroa. "That's enough, right?"


I don't blame the fanbase, although that quote wasn't the most informed, I blame Heat marketing, who told them to go there in the first place.

But nonetheless, I am still SMH.

[Chicago 1995]

What are you talking about saying they wouldve replaced them by now? The Heat, as is everyone else, are waiting for the big free agents to decide, and even before this year, they had those guys because their contracts were coming off the books this year.

The Heat would most likely sign Wade and then Bosh (either outright or sign and trade for him sending a 16 mil tpe and a few picks to toronto) The Heat would then use the remaining 13 mil on solid role players like Mike Milker, Udonis Haslem, (Raymond Felton, Brendan Haywood <--- Yes, I know they are UNC guys but my team needs good role players and they are solid contributors in the NBA. The Heat would then be able to sign around 4-5 minimum contracts like Raja Bell, Chris Duhon, Kurt Thomas, etc.
This is just showing you that the Heat can sign Wade and Bosh and still create a championship team next year, especially with Pat Riley.

Also, Mike Beasley is no slacker. He averaged 15 points last year (more than Noah or Gibson, and thats in limited minutes) This could very well be a breakout year for him. It was just those two slip-ups in the past off-seasons with immaturity, but if he can get that in check, this coukd be a breakout year for him. So I dont think its fair to bring up the Heats core and not even mention Beasley.


I didn't include Beasley in the discussion for 2 reasons. First, to get three max guys, the Heat have to dump Beasley. Second, I don't think the Heat consider him part of the core thanks to the off the court issues. They want rid of him it seems by all accounts.

Beasley is a better scorer thank Noah or Gibson. He's less a defender or rebounder, and more importantly, he's far less reliable. He's got talent, but there's not much reason to expect a breakout from Beasley. He seems as likely to disappear.

The point about replacing Haslem, for example, was meant toward last year. If the players you mention are so easily replacable, the Heat wouldn't have overpaid the guys they had last year. Some of those guys were overpaid, but they we're still better than guys getting the minimum.

I would be surprised if you could get more than 2 of the vets you mentioned for that $13M you mention. Again, the Bulls might get shut out, but Bosh and Wade (or James) in a dynamic duo are more likely to win a title next years and the several years after in Chicago.

[MisterRoddy]

I didn't include Beasley in the discussion for 2 reasons. First, to get three max guys, the Heat have to dump Beasley. Second, I don't think the Heat consider him part of the core thanks to the off the court issues. They want rid of him it seems by all accounts.

1) The only way the Heat would get 3 max guys would be Lebron/Wade/Bosh, which in that case Beasley leaving would be irrelevant because that team would be unstoppable :) But that's highly unlikely to happen so the Heat would probably get Wade and Bosh/Boozer and sign a few role players with the other 13 mil, therefore keeping Beasley.

2) Its likely that the only way Beasley leaves, is if that Big 3 do team up in Miami and who wouldn't trade Beasley for Bosh and Lebron? What are all of these "accounts" you are referring to? If the Heat wanted to trade Beasley, they would've by now, easily. The only reason they are open to trading him in the first place is because he is still in a project phase, be it the latter stages, and the Heat want to win now, not because of his off the court issues. This coming from a Heat fan who follows the team closely.


Beasley is a better scorer thank Noah or Gibson. He's less a defender or rebounder, and more importantly, he's far less reliable. He's got talent, but there's not much reason to expect a breakout from Beasley. He seems as likely to disappear.

Yes, Beasley was unreliable at times last year in terms of him totally disappearing at times but the kid is still only 21, that will get better with time, if he hasn't improved in maturity in 4 years by the time he is 25 (age of Noah and Gibson), then I'll start to worry. But if you look at his numbers per36 minutes for last season, he would average 19.5 and 8.5, not very bad at all. By comparison, Amare Stoudemire's stats at the same age per36 minutes were 20.5 and 9. Those numbers aren't very far off at all. I'm not saying that he will amount to what Stoudemire has become, but its not like he hasn't produced at all when in fact he has actually performed fairly well.



The point about replacing Haslem, for example, was meant toward last year. If the players you mention are so easily replacable, the Heat wouldn't have overpaid the guys they had last year. Some of those guys were overpaid, but they we're still better than guys getting the minimum.

First of all, The Heat didn't overpay for Haslem last year, he signed a contract years before that. Second, Haslem wasn't overpaid last year making slightly over 7 mil, by contrast, he's expected to make around 5-6 mil this year (and remember the numbers go up)

For Quentin Richardson, he was traded before last year and he was traded for Mark Blount, who also had a terrible contract, but Richardson actually produced. The Heat took on Richardsons contract because it came off the books this year.

For Jermaine O'neal, the Heat traded for him a few years ago because his contract came off the books this year also, but he was also a productive post player that the Heat needed. His production has since dropped, averaging 13 and 7 and the Heat could easily replace him whether it be a draft pick (Pittman) or a free agent signing (Haywood, Kurt Thomas). the addition of a Bosh or Boozer would also take much pressure off of his replacement.

So looking at all of these overpaid players, they were overpaid because the Heat knew their contracts would come off the books this year, therefore making them major players for the big free agents this summer, not because of their production.

As for who is replacing them, I didn't say that minimum players would be replacing all of them necessarily. For instance, Mike Miller could easily replace Richardson and Haywood could replace Haslem (although I expect him to be re-signed for less, to allow the Heat more flexibility)


I would be surprised if you could get more than 2 of the vets you mentioned for that $13M you mention.

I never said that we would sign more than 2. In fact, 2 is exactly the amount I expect them to sign (with a possibility of 3) If Haslem (or maybe Haywood) signs for less, I can see the Heat getting Felton and Mike Miller also for the 13mil. Otherwise, I would expect a combination of Miller/Felton and Haslem/Haywood for that 13 mil.

[ncexnyc]

Amare Stoudemire to the Knicks for $100 million over 5 years. This according to ESPN.

[Big Pappa]

Amare Stoudemire to the Knicks for $100 million over 5 years. This according to ESPN.

Link - http://sports.espn.go.com/new-york/nba/news/story?id=5356502

[Newton_14]

Too late now, but we missed out on a golden opportunity to both have some great fun and help pass the dog days of summer with this Free Agency deal.

We should have had a points based contest to try to guess where the top 10 or 12 free agents would sign. That would have been cool especially given all the story lines going on with these players. Oh well...

At this point, I would guess Wade and either Bosh or Boozer to Chicago. As for Lebron, I think he is really torn between hometown and the wish to try something different in a new city. Were he not from the area I would give Cleveland no shot of landing him. I also think the locker room stuff with teammates and mom hurts Cleveland as well.

I don't think he goes to Chicago due to the Jordan factor. New York is out for being a horrible franchise at this point. If I am right on Wade, then Miami is out.

Would he really go to the Nets? Dallas? If Bosh is partnering with Wade and not Lebron, then who is partnering with Lebron? I doubt he wants Boozer again, so who?

[MisterRoddy]

Too late now, but we missed out on a golden opportunity to both have some great fun and help pass the dog days of summer with this Free Agency deal.

We should have had a points based contest to try to guess where the top 10 or 12 free agents would sign. That would have been cool especially given all the story lines going on with these players. Oh well...

At this point, I would guess Wade and either Bosh or Boozer to Chicago. As for Lebron, I think he is really torn between hometown and the wish to try something different in a new city. Were he not from the area I would give Cleveland no shot of landing him. I also think the locker room stuff with teammates and mom hurts Cleveland as well.

I don't think he goes to Chicago due to the Jordan factor. New York is out for being a horrible franchise at this point. If I am right on Wade, then Miami is out.

Would he really go to the Nets? Dallas? If Bosh is partnering with Wade and not Lebron, then who is partnering with Lebron? I doubt he wants Boozer again, so who?

That would've been a good idea, in fact, it probably isn't too late. There are still good players that it seems are wide open. (They don't have to be all stars)

Lebron James: Cle, Chi, NY, NJ, Mia
Dwyane Wade: Mia, Chi, NY
Chris Bosh: Mia, Chi, Hou
Carlos Boozer: Chi, Mia, NJ, Utah, Orl
David Lee: Mia, NJ, Chi, GS, Utah, etc.
Ray Allen: Bos, Mia, Chi
Mike Miller: NY, Mia, Chi
JJ Redick: Orl, Bos, etc.
Raymond Felton: NY, Mia, etc.
Brendan Haywood, Mia, ??
Kyle Korver: Utah, Mia, NY
Adam Morrison (jk)

[muzikfrk75]

And the saga continues...lol...Toronto is willing to do a sign and trade with Cleveland. The only problem is Bosh doesn't really want to play in Cleveland!

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5357607

[toooskies]

Being from Cleveland, I wouldn't move to Cleveland for an extra year and a 5% raise.

[Newton_14]

I was listening to the Packman show on the commute home this evening and Marc Packer stated that Danny Ainge is very high on JJ and will likely make him a strong offer. I knew there was interest there but have not heard lately if Boston was officially pursuing JJ or not.

It will be a tough choice for JJ to make if he gets an offer from Boston that is significantly higher than what Orlando can match. Both are great teams but Boston is somewhat in rebuild mode with aging stars. Orlando seems better positioned in the short term, if only a little.

JJ would fit perfectly in Boston's offensive system though. I am 50/50 on wanting him to stay with Orlando or go to Boston. I do hope he ends up with one of those teams. Unless of course he finds a way on to whichever team LeBron ends up on.

[MisterRoddy]

I was listening to the Packman show on the commute home this evening and Marc Packer stated that Danny Ainge is very high on JJ and will likely make him a strong offer. I knew there was interest there but have not heard lately if Boston was officially pursuing JJ or not.

It will be a tough choice for JJ to make if he gets an offer from Boston that is significantly higher than what Orlando can match. Both are great teams but Boston is somewhat in rebuild mode with aging stars. Orlando seems better positioned in the short term, if only a little.

JJ would fit perfectly in Boston's offensive system though. I am 50/50 on wanting him to stay with Orlando or go to Boston. I do hope he ends up with one of those teams. Unless of course he finds a way on to whichever team LeBron ends up on.

Orlando seems set for longs runs for a few years with a good nucleus of Howard and Nelson. They are set in the two hardest positions to find quality players and they have stars. I would love for JJ to stay in Orlando as I don't think Vince will stay there for too long and JJ could possibly take over the starting spot over time. Even if he doesn't start, he will still get solid minutes off the bench on what'll most likely be known as a title-contender.
FWIW, I just don't like Boston (although I have grown quite fond of Doc, but that's mostly due to Austin)

[MisterRoddy]

Somewhat big news, Chris Broussard is reporting that Lebron James will announce his decision on Thursday at 9pm eastern on ESPN.

[muzikfrk75]

Somewhat big news, Chris Broussard is reporting that Lebron James will announce his decision on Thursday at 9pm eastern on ESPN.

It is officially a circus now. lol

[MisterRoddy]

FWIW, there's buzz that New York is right up there with Chicago and Cleveland since the acquisition of Stoudemire.

[CDu]

As expected, ESPN reporting that Bosh and Wade are set to sign with Miami.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5360134

It's looking more and more like Chicago gets left out in the cold. Though maybe this pushes James to sign with Chicago to have at least some upper-tier talent around him.

[MisterRoddy]

As expected, ESPN reporting that Bosh and Wade are set to sign with Miami.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5360134

It's looking more and more like Chicago gets left out in the cold. Though maybe this pushes James to sign with Chicago to have at least some upper-tier talent around him.

As a Heat fan, I very excited! I woke up this morning to the news and couldn't help but let out a rejoicing scream :)

As for Lebron, apparently the Heat are the frontrunners for him too, but I'm still not buying it.

[Big Pappa]

As expected, ESPN reporting that Bosh and Wade are set to sign with Miami.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5360134

It's looking more and more like Chicago gets left out in the cold. Though maybe this pushes James to sign with Chicago to have at least some upper-tier talent around him.

Looks like Wade's little ploy in Chi-Town worked like a charm. He had them so wrapped in him, he gave Miami plenty of time to work deals with Bosh and himself.

As for Lebron, I think it's between the Cavs and Nets.

[CDu]

Looks like Wade's little ploy in Chi-Town worked like a charm. He had them so wrapped in him, he gave Miami plenty of time to work deals with Bosh and himself.

As for Lebron, I think it's between the Cavs and Nets.

Well, I'm not sure that such a "ploy" was in any way necessary, or even a good idea. If Wade wanted to make sure that Bosh joined him in Miami, all he had to do was say "I'm staying in Miami - Chris, come join me." It's not like he had to buy time for Miami to get Bosh. If anything, the move also gave Cleveland a chance to pull a sign-and-trade with Bosh, which would have left Wade high and dry.

Rather than a ploy to deceive Chicago and buy time for Miami, I think the Chicago stunt was instead just a way to make his documentary more exciting. Creating fake suspense makes for a better documentary than simply showing up in Miami and signing with them. I think the plan all along was for Bosh and Wade to go to Miami.

The Bulls I guess still have an outside shot at James. I really can't see him taking less money and going to a team where he has to share the spotlight with two other stars and be second-fiddle to Wade. I could see James going to New York to play with Stoudemire, or staying in Cleveland to stay at home. The Bulls' best hope for James is to land Boozer or Lee at a good enough price to allow James to join at max dollars.

But I'm thinking it's a case of the Bulls hoping to land Boozer (and probably having to overpay for him now) and then use whatever money is left to sign a jumpshooter.

[hq2]

I would assume then that Michael Beasley will get the boot then? He didn't do much in the playoffs to get the folks in Miami to keep him.

[JasonEvans]

I would assume then that Michael Beasley will get the boot then? He didn't do much in the playoffs to get the folks in Miami to keep him.

To have room to sign Lebron, Miami must dump Beasley's salary. The roster would be Chalmers, Wade, LeBron, Bosh, and 8 guys making the minimum. That is the only math that works.

--Jason "I still don't think Lebron goes to Wade's team to be the #2 guy on the team" Evans

[mgtr]

To have room to sign Lebron, Miami must dump Beasley's salary. The roster would be Chalmers, Wade, LeBron, Bosh, and 8 guys making the minimum. That is the only math that works.

--Jason "I still don't think Lebron goes to Wade's team to be the #2 guy on the team" Evans

That would be a very good team. I wouldn't bet my money against them. Of course, I would readily bet someone else's money!!!:D

[muzikfrk75]

I think it's either Cleveland or NY now, with a heavy heavy lean on Cleveland.

BTW, Kevin Durant agreed to a 5yr/86M extension with the Thunder today.

[CDu]

To have room to sign Lebron, Miami must dump Beasley's salary. The roster would be Chalmers, Wade, LeBron, Bosh, and 8 guys making the minimum. That is the only math that works.

--Jason "I still don't think Lebron goes to Wade's team to be the #2 guy on the team" Evans

I think James really hoped that Bosh or Wade would come join him as the second fiddle in Cleveland or Chicago. I agree - I don't think James wants to play second fiddle to Wade in Miami. I think he cares too much about his stardom and his legacy to do that.

Now that Bosh has committed to join Wade in Miami, I think things get really interesting for James. He could join Chicago and hope the Bulls can get Boozer or Lee and some cheap shooters to form what would then be the best team in the East. Or he could go to New York and be the star setting up Stoudemire and hope that they can fill in pieces around him. Or, he can go to New Jersey and make them a solid playoff team and hope that within a few years the pieces develop and/or fall into place to make a championship run there. Or he can stay in Cleveland and make his hometown fans happy, but probably forego a realistic shot at a title for the foreseeable future.

Had he been able to convince Wade or Bosh to join him in Cleveland, he gets everything he wanted (stardom, undying hometown admiration, a chance at a title). Now, he's got to weigh some tough choices.

[MisterRoddy]

BTW, Kevin Durant agreed to a 5yr/86M extension with the Thunder today.

Wow, no ESPN TV Special? somebody needs to teach this youngin how the NBA works...

In all seriousness, Kevin Durant is a great, humble player and I'm happy for him. I have a feeling that the Thunder will be a power in the Western Conf. for years to come.

[NSDukeFan]

To have room to sign Lebron, Miami must dump Beasley's salary. The roster would be Chalmers, Wade, LeBron, Bosh, and 8 guys making the minimum. That is the only math that works.

--Jason "I still don't think Lebron goes to Wade's team to be the #2 guy on the team" Evans

Wouldn't that be a great scenario for an undrafted, smart, well-coached all-american guard?

[mph]

I agree that Cleveland is the favorite at this point, but I'd say Chicago makes more sense as a backup destination. If James decides to leave Cleveland I'd think he'd favor the team that gave him the best chance to win a championship. I don't think NY is that team.

Sure Amare is a better post presence than Lee, but paying $100 million for a guy who's older than Lee and one misstep away from blowing out two bad knees? I don't see it. The Knicks would be at least one more piece away even with James, and it's at least one more year before they'd be able to secure that piece.

On the other hand, add James and Boozer to Rose, Noah, and Deng and you've got a contender next season. Even without Boozer, I'd take Chicago over NY.

[CDu]

I agree that Cleveland is the favorite at this point, but I'd say Chicago makes more sense as a backup destination. If James decides to leave Cleveland I'd think he'd favor the team that gave him the best chance to win a championship. I don't think NY is that team.

Sure Amare is a better post presence than Lee, but paying $100 million for a guy who's older than Lee and one misstep away from blowing out two bad knees? I don't see it. The Knicks would be at least one more piece away even with James, and it's at least one more year before they'd be able to secure that piece.

On the other hand, add James and Boozer to Rose, Noah, and Deng and you've got a contender next season. Even without Boozer, I'd take Chicago over NY.

Admittedly, I'm biased towards the Bulls. But I think Noah/Gibson/Deng/Rose is better than Stoudemire/Gallinari/Chandler/?. And that's not even assuming a guy like Lee or Boozer could be added, or that Deng could be traded for better pieces (i.e., shooters, depth inside).

It all depends on what matters most. If a combination of max contract and championship potential is what he wants, then Chicago is the best bet. If stature is what he wants, then either Cleveland, New York, or New Jersey is the best bet.

[UrinalCake]

To have room to sign Lebron, Miami must dump Beasley's salary. The roster would be Chalmers, Wade, LeBron, Bosh, and 8 guys making the minimum. That is the only math that works.

When I think of minimum salary players, I think undrafted rookies and old guys hanging around for a ring. I don't necessarily buy the reasoning that quality role players in their prime will be willing to sign for the minimum in order to play with the big three. So while such a roster would be cool to see, I wouldn't predict any titles for them unless they can stumble upon an ideal blend of scrub players. And even then, they could probably only hold it all together for a season.

[MisterRoddy]

I agree that Cleveland is the favorite at this point, but I'd say Chicago makes more sense as a backup destination. If James decides to leave Cleveland I'd think he'd favor the team that gave him the best chance to win a championship. I don't think NY is that team.

Sure Amare is a better post presence than Lee, but paying $100 million for a guy who's older than Lee and one misstep away from blowing out two bad knees? I don't see it. The Knicks would be at least one more piece away even with James, and it's at least one more year before they'd be able to secure that piece.

On the other hand, add James and Boozer to Rose, Noah, and Deng and you've got a contender next season. Even without Boozer, I'd take Chicago over NY.

Two things:

1: Yes, Amare is older, but only by a few months.

2: Chicago has 30 mil to spend right now. To add both James and Boozer, they would have to trade either Deng or Noah. So the lineup you put forth is almost impossible unless one takes a paycut which I highly doubt seeing how free agency has played out thus far and I doubt Lebron would take a paycut to only play with Boozer (especially after Booz left him high and dry a few years ago).

[CDu]

Two things:

1: Yes, Amare is older, but only by a few months.

2: Chicago has 30 mil to spend right now. To add both James and Boozer, they would have to trade either Deng or Noah. So the lineup you put forth is almost impossible unless one takes a paycut which I highly doubt seeing how free agency has played out thus far and I doubt Lebron would take a paycut to only play with Boozer (especially after Booz left him high and dry a few years ago).

Yes, either Boozer would have to take less money, or the Bulls would have to trade either Deng or Johnson and Gibson. Trading Deng makes the most sense, since he gives them enough flexibility to then sign a SG as well, and since he plays the same position as James.

Alternatively, the Bulls could sign Lee (who can't sign for as much as Boozer) and James and keep Deng (or trade him for cap space and a SG).

[JasonEvans]

Wait a sec-- what makes people think Boozer will sign a max deal? If Chicago has $30 million of cap space, signing Lebron for about $16.5 million and Boozer for $13.5 million would be very reasonable.

Boozer made $11.5 million this year. Maybe he is expecting a raise to the max, but I think a $2-3 million raise on a 5 year deal would be good for him.

--Jason

[MisterRoddy]

Wait a sec-- what makes people think Boozer will sign a max deal? If Chicago has $30 million of cap space, signing Lebron for about $16.5 million and Boozer for $13.5 million would be very reasonable.

Boozer made $11.5 million this year. Maybe he is expecting a raise to the max, but I think a $2-3 million raise on a 5 year deal would be good for him.

--Jason

Well, for one, the Jazz are looking to keep Booz so Chicago would likely have to outbid them.

Also, Stoudemire got the max and he averaged similar numbers to Boozer (2 more points, 3 less boards) and he's only a year or two younger than Carlos.

Then you look at guys like Joe Johnson, Rudy Gay, Darko, etc. and the money they got and there's no reason to believe Carlos won't find the max somewhere, whether it be, NJ, Utah, or Chicago.

[CDu]

Wait a sec-- what makes people think Boozer will sign a max deal? If Chicago has $30 million of cap space, signing Lebron for about $16.5 million and Boozer for $13.5 million would be very reasonable.

Boozer made $11.5 million this year. Maybe he is expecting a raise to the max, but I think a $2-3 million raise on a 5 year deal would be good for him.

--Jason

Boozer has always seemed to be a money-first guy. IF James were to go to Chicago, then Boozer could decide between taking a max deal from NJ or taking a few million per year less to sign with Chicago. That'd be an interesting decision, and would say a lot (I think) about where Boozer's focus lies.

If James signs in Cleveland, NY, or NJ, then Boozer can simply force the extra money out of Chicago or whichever of NY/NJ don't get James, because those teams will HAVE to land at least one "top-tier" player. He'll take full advantage of the bidding war that will ensue.

I suspect Boozer is going to wind up making the max, but I doubt he winds up playing alongside James.

[MisterRoddy]

Wow, I eat my words.

Chicago Bulls and Carlos Boozer have reportedly reached a deal worth 80 mil over 5 years

[Big Pappa]

Wow, I eat my words.

Chicago Bulls and Carlos Boozer have reportedly reached a deal worth 80 mil over 5 years

http://sports.espn.go.com/chicago/nba/news/story?id=5361792

[CDu]

http://sports.espn.go.com/chicago/nba/news/story?id=5361792

Wow, if this is true, that's a big "get" for the Bulls. It gives them ammunition in the James sweepstakes. But further than that, it gives them an impact scorer to team with Noah inside and take some of the scoring burden off of Rose.

I like the fact that the deal isn't a max deal. This shows that Boozer is interested in winning, too. He commits ahead of James, and probably costs himself a few dollars but gives the Bulls a better argument for getting James.

If the Bulls don't get James, then one could quibble whether Boozer was a better target than David Lee. But Boozer is probably the better sell for James, so in that sense I like it.

And in either case, the Bulls HAD to get at least one of James, Boozer, or Lee. So it is the proverbial bird in the hand...

[Duvall]

Wow, if this is true, that's a big "get" for the Bulls. It gives them ammunition in the James sweepstakes. But further than that, it gives them an impact scorer to team with Noah inside and take some of the scoring burden off of Rose.

I like the fact that the deal isn't a max deal. This shows that Boozer is interested in winning, too. He commits ahead of James, and probably costs himself a few dollars but gives the Bulls a better argument for getting James.

Does this deal leave the Bulls enough cap room to still pursue James?

[MisterRoddy]

Wow, if this is true, that's a big "get" for the Bulls. It gives them ammunition in the James sweepstakes. But further than that, it gives them an impact scorer to team with Noah inside and take some of the scoring burden off of Rose.

I like the fact that the deal isn't a max deal. This shows that Boozer is interested in winning, too. He commits ahead of James, and probably costs himself a few dollars but gives the Bulls a better argument for getting James.

If the Bulls don't get James, then one could quibble whether Boozer was a better target than David Lee. But Boozer is probably the better sell for James, so in that sense I like it.

And in either case, the Bulls HAD to get at least one of James, Boozer, or Lee. So it is the proverbial bird in the hand...

This could also spell the end for James in Cleveland. IMO, the only way james went back to Cleveland is with a big, either Bosh or Booz. With both of them gone and we know NY wouldn't help Cleveland by giving Lee to them in a S&T, I just don't see him going back, especially with Mia and Chi improving so much. There is growing belief that he is bound for New York, which is where I think he will go.

[rotogod00]

Does this deal leave the Bulls enough cap room to still pursue James?

yes, boozer's cap hit is $13.8M. leaves them with about $17M, just enough for a max contract.

[theAlaskanBear]

Does this deal leave the Bulls enough cap room to still pursue James?

Probably not, but at this point, James knows where he is going, and that isn't the Bulls or they wouldn't have signed Boozer...unless its a sign and trade with Cleveland.

Boozer is great move by Chicago because he adds a lot of balance to their scoring...they have been looking for a scoring PF for years...

and remember, even without LeBron, there are many other options for the Bulls...and they could be setting themselves up for next years free agent class as well.

[muzikfrk75]

Does this deal leave the Bulls enough cap room to still pursue James?

From what I read, yes.


The Bulls are still in the running for LeBron James, who is going to make an announcement Thursday on ESPN. But Chicago would have to do some creative financing to fit the superstar under the cap after this deal.

[mph]

Does this deal leave the Bulls enough cap room to still pursue James?

Should be less of a problem now.
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5362260)

NBA teams found out Wednesday that the salary cap for next season will be nearly $2 million higher than anticipated, providing additional unforeseen cap space to several teams.

The NBA announced a cap of $58 million for the 2010-11 season, when most teams had budgeted a cap of $56.1 million.

[MisterRoddy]

News just keeps rolling in, Ray Allen has re-signed with the Celtics on a 2 year, $10 million contract.

It's amazing that all of these dominos were suppose to fall AFTER Lebron made his decision...

[muzikfrk75]

Brendan Haywood re-signed with Dallas for 6/$55M: http://sports.espn.go.com/dallas/nba/news/story?id=5364191

Carlisle guaranteed him a starting position...so that's pretty much a Godfather deal for Haywood.

[MisterRoddy]

In almost a knee-jerk reaction, David Lee has been sent to the Warriors in a sign and trade.

http://www.chicagobreakingsports.com/2010/07/agent-david-lee-in-signtrade-to-warriors.html

I really like this for the Warriors, they finally get some low-post scoring to go along with Steph Curry (will soon be one of the best guards in the NBA, imo) and Monta Ellis. I believe the GS Warriors are on their way up.

[Eternal Outlaw]

In almost a knee-jerk reaction, David Lee has been sent to the Warriors in a sign and trade.

http://www.chicagobreakingsports.com/2010/07/agent-david-lee-in-signtrade-to-warriors.html

I really like this for the Warriors, they finally get some low-post scoring to go along with Steph Curry (will soon be one of the best guards in the NBA, imo) and Monta Ellis. I believe the GS Warriors are on their way up.

Not at all knee jerk, this has been speculated for a couple days that Lee would go in a sign and trade if James did not pick NY.

[MisterRoddy]

Not at all knee jerk, this has been speculated for a couple days that Lee would go in a sign and trade if James did not pick NY.

Yes, I know it was in place, when I say knee-jerk, I meant that it was reported (and probably finalized) literally minutes after Lebron James made his decision public.

[blazindw]

Another fallout: Michael Beasley traded to the Timberwolves for a 2011 2nd round pick. The Heat and T-Wolves are also exchanging 1st round picks next year as well.

[MisterRoddy]

Oh well, I'm not complaining.

Mike Miller has reportedly agreed to sign with the Heat with a 5 year, $30 mil contract.

Tweet from Jalen Rose



jalenrose: #NBA Miami Heat and Mike Miller agree to 5yr/$30m deal
7 minutes ago

Also, a separate link from C2CRecruiting

http://coast2coastrecruiting.net/2010/07/mike-miller-to-the-heat/

With this signing the Miami Heat have their shooter as Miller shot an incredible 48% from downtown last year. This should be their last non-minimum signee.

[mike88]

Kyle Korver signs with Chicago for 3 years and $15M per ESPN's Mark Stein:

http://sports.espn.go.com/chicago/nba/news/story?id=5367796

As a Magic fan, I hope this signing (plus Ray Allen going back to Boston) increases the likelihood that JJ will return to the Magic. I would imagine that JJ should be able to get a similar amount per ($5-6M) but hopefully a longer contract . . .

[muzikfrk75]

Tyrus Thomas re-upped with the Bobats for 5yr/$40M.

What about Redick??? LOL

EDIT: Nothing finalized, but SVG says that the Magic will probably match any offer http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/07/van-gundy-magic-will-match-an-offer-sheet-for-redick.php

[SilkyJ]

Kyle Korver signs with Chicago for 3 years and $15M per ESPN's Mark Stein:

http://sports.espn.go.com/chicago/nba/news/story?id=5367796

As a Magic fan, I hope this signing (plus Ray Allen going back to Boston) increases the likelihood that JJ will return to the Magic. I would imagine that JJ should be able to get a similar amount per ($5-6M) but hopefully a longer contract . . .

Yea this has to be a data point for whatever contract Redick gets. My guess is that he is worth a little less than Korver, but hopefully he can get more out of a team that really wants him.

[theAlaskanBear]

Kyle Korver signs with Chicago for 3 years and $15M per ESPN's Mark Stein:

http://sports.espn.go.com/chicago/nba/news/story?id=5367796

As a Magic fan, I hope this signing (plus Ray Allen going back to Boston) increases the likelihood that JJ will return to the Magic. I would imagine that JJ should be able to get a similar amount per ($5-6M) but hopefully a longer contract . . .

This is a great signing for the Bulls, because they really lacked a knock-down shooter. My guess is that Korver will play a lot at the 2-spot, BUT in another scenario this could mean the Bulls intend to play Korver at SF and shop Luol Deng and some prospects around for another star.

[dukejim1]

With these career numbers I keep Luol and add quality depth
FG% 3pt% FT% off Def Total Reb Ast TO Stl Blk PPG
47.4 30.9 76.7 1.8 4.7 6.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.6 15.8

[SilkyJ]

Yea this has to be a data point for whatever contract Redick gets. My guess is that he is worth a little less than Korver, but hopefully he can get more out of a team that really wants him.

HAHA. Let's just say the bulls really want him...or maybe I dont know squat :cool::rolleyes:

[MisterRoddy]

The numbers for Wade/Bron/Bosh's contracts are in:

Lebron James/Chris Bosh: 6 years, 110 mil (ETO after 4th year)
Dwyane Wade: 6 years, 108 mil (ETO after 4th)

I think the craziest thing out of the so called "Summer of Lebron" (other than the 3 teaming up) is the fact that Joe Johnson came away the highest payed free agent, wow.

[theAlaskanBear]

Some fairly significant news:

Phoenix Suns acquire Hedo Turkoglu from Toronto for Leandro Barbosa. They also picked up Josh Childress (the rights) for a 2nd round pick. Childress has been playing in Greece. This move will make the Suns more versatile and adds a playmaker (Hedo) to help out Nash. Hedo has 4 years left on his deal.

Also, a couple of point guards on the move:
New York Knicks signed Raymond Felton.
New Jersey Nets signed Jordan Farmar

[superdave]

Any news on all those veterans dying to play in Miami?

I saw where UHaul got offered $20 million or so by the Mavs. That beats $1 million from the Heat.

[CDu]

Any news on all those veterans dying to play in Miami?

I saw where UHaul got offered $20 million or so by the Mavs. That beats $1 million from the Heat.

My guess is that a lot of those deals happen late in the game after the bigger money is all doled out. There are still too many teams with cap space.

But yeah, I find it hard to believe that legitimately good players will flock to take huge paycuts to play with Miami. They can probably get guys like Jason Williams, though.

[MisterRoddy]

Udonis Haslem has agreed to re-sign with the Miami Heat.



IraHeatBeat: Just heard from Udonis Haslem. He has turned down far larger deals from the Nuggets and Mavericks . . . and will be back with the Heat!
about 1 hour ago

Big for Miami and filling out their roster. Haslem mentioned that Mike Miller (college roommates) agreeing to play for Miami was a big part in him coming back. I'd expect official word on Mike Miller to Miami today or tomorrow.

Also, Derek Fisher agreed to re-sign with Los Angeles.



TheNBAScoop: Derek Fisher has decided to remain with the Los Angeles Lakers. He will sign a 3 year deal, however the financials have yet to be announced.
2 minutes ago

Fish is a Big part of that team and you can bet they are glad to have him back.

[theAlaskanBear]

NBA update:

Big Z, Zydrunas Ilgauskas rejoins LeBron in Miami for the Heat!
Also, Utah trades for Al Jefferson for two first round picks.

[CDu]

It appears that Big Z will join James in going to the Miami Heat. I can't imagine that the Heat have money to offer him anything above the minimum, but

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=ap-heat-ilgauskas

Apparently, Juwon Howard is expected to sign as well. These guys must be signing for the veteran's minimum, as I can't imagine that there is any salary cap space left.

But the frontcourt rotation would then be Bosh, Haslem, Ilgauskas, Howard. Serviceable parts behind Bosh. I guess they'll look to add another veteran guard, and then fill in scraps for the 10th-12th spots on the roster.

[MisterRoddy]

It appears that Big Z will join James in going to the Miami Heat. I can't imagine that the Heat have money to offer him anything above the minimum, but

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=ap-heat-ilgauskas

Apparently, Juwon Howard is expected to sign as well. These guys must be signing for the veteran's minimum, as I can't imagine that there is any salary cap space left.

But the frontcourt rotation would then be Bosh, Haslem, Ilgauskas, Howard. Serviceable parts behind Bosh. I guess they'll look to add another veteran guard, and then fill in scraps for the 10th-12th spots on the roster.

I expect the Heat to re-sign Joel Anthony (iirc, they have maintained his bird rights), don't be surprised if he starts at Center. Provides athleticism, good D, and high energy.

[CDu]

I expect the Heat to re-sign Joel Anthony (iirc, they have maintained his bird rights), don't be surprised if he starts at Center. Provides athleticism, good D, and high energy.

Re-signing Anthony would be a good thing from the perspective of Chris Bosh, in that it's one more body (along with Big Z) to keep Bosh from having to play center. That would make signing Howard a strange move, though I guess having five veteran bigs is not a terrible thing.

So would that mean:
C: Anthony, Ilgauskas
PF: Bosh, Haslem, Howard(?)
SF: James (point forward), Miller
SG: Wade, Miller, ?
PG: Chalmers, ?

If that's correct, I'd expect a veteran PG and maybe another veteran shooter to be added (perhaps in the same player?) to fill out the rotation.

[MisterRoddy]

Re-signing Anthony would be a good thing from the perspective of Chris Bosh, in that it's one more body (along with Big Z) to keep Bosh from having to play center. That would make signing Howard a strange move, though I guess having five veteran bigs is not a terrible thing.

So would that mean:
C: Anthony, Ilgauskas
PF: Bosh, Haslem, Howard(?)
SF: James (point forward), Miller
SG: Wade, Miller, ?
PG: Chalmers, ?

If that's correct, I'd expect a veteran PG and maybe another veteran shooter to be added (perhaps in the same player?) to fill out the rotation.

I would say the signing of Howard was more for senior leadership and insurance for injury. He's a good guy to have on the bench but also not too shabby of a player either.

Also, I could sew a lineup where Wade and Lebron handle the point duties with Miller as the other wing, Chalmers coming off the bench. Either way, I still see the Heat bringing in two more guards, 1 at point and another at shooting guard/small forward. Add in the rooks and thats probably all the depth they'll need.

[toooskies]

Z barely got minutes in the playoff rotation for Cleveland's "terrible" supporting cast, and only after they started struggling. Howard has been kicking around the league for forever. IMO, they're liabilities unless Anthony deserves 35+ minutes a game.

[CDu]

Z barely got minutes in the playoff rotation for Cleveland's "terrible" supporting cast, and only after they started struggling. Howard has been kicking around the league for forever. IMO, they're liabilities unless Anthony deserves 35+ minutes a game.

To be fair, Ilgauskas didn't play much because he and Shaq couldn't play together and Shaq was better than him. And he was too slow to be a change of pace for the plodding Shaq. So the "change of pace" lineup when Shaq was out became Varejao.

But yes, Howard should be insurance only for Miami. Ilgauskas would get more minutes in Miami than in Cleveland because Miami has more athleticism available to play alongside him. He'd still be a reserve though.

Don't get me wrong - those guys aren't impact players. They are just not terrible players for a rotation big and an end of the bench insurance option in the post.

[superdave]

Miller is one of the most skilled big men available and seems like a good fit for Miami off the bench. He has also said he'd be willing to take a pay cut to play for a ring. But the rumor is he'll return to Chicago. The Bulls are really stacking their roster if they get Redick.

[CDu]

Miller is one of the most skilled big men available and seems like a good fit for Miami off the bench. He has also said he'd be willing to take a pay cut to play for a ring. But the rumor is he'll return to Chicago. The Bulls are really stacking their roster if they get Redick.

I'd be surprised if Miller went to Miami now that they have Bosh, Ilgauskas and likely Anthony and Howard. I don't know if he'll return to the Bulls, but they are certainly interested in having him back.

It's a very good roster. I'm not entirely convinced that Redick is the right fit, though. I don't think they need both him and Korver, and think a better defensive SG may be better. But who knows? If Orlando doesn't match the offer, it's a moot point. Either way, I agree that the Bulls should be much improved from last year.

[muzikfrk75]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5378798


The team's attempt to sign free agent Kyle Lowry was rebuffed Wednesday when Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey said he planned to match Cleveland's offer sheet to the veteran guard. Houston had one week to match Cleveland's package -- a three-year, $24 million deal with a fourth option year -- but Morey wasted no time and kept his promise to hold on to Lowry.

Poor Cavs can't catch a break!

[superdave]

3 years, $10 million. Apparently he had offers from Chicago and the Lakers as well. Not bad for a 33 year old backup.

[toooskies]

Everyone knew Lowry wasn't going anywhere, the Rockets like him too much. But the Cavs really need to do something-- they're drowning in relevance as one of only a few teams to not get any signings (even small ones) this summer, and most of the others at least had high draft picks. Nuking the roster isn't a great idea, but they have to do something!

[superdave]

Everyone knew Lowry wasn't going anywhere, the Rockets like him too much. But the Cavs really need to do something-- they're drowning in relevance as one of only a few teams to not get any signings (even small ones) this summer, and most of the others at least had high draft picks. Nuking the roster isn't a great idea, but they have to do something!

If the Cavs can get value for Mo and Delonte now, they should stockpile picks and younger players. Then they can clear more cap space (Jamison) and rebuild through the lottery. The more young assets and cap space they have, the better positioned they will be to make trades for All-star caliber players from a position of strenght. See Oklahoma City as a reference point.

[toooskies]

If the Cavs can get value for Mo and Delonte now, they should stockpile picks and younger players. Then they can clear more cap space (Jamison) and rebuild through the lottery. The more young assets and cap space they have, the better positioned they will be to make trades for All-star caliber players from a position of strenght. See Oklahoma City as a reference point.

Well, that's no reference point right now. The thunder got all their talent by deserving a #2, #3, and #4 draft pick (which turned into Durant, Westbrook, and Harden) and trading an all-star (Ray Allen) for a #5 pick (Jeff Green). They have no all-star to trade, they're 3 years away from having those draft picks (and only if they can liquid bad contracts NOW-- this team still wins 30 games worst-case as composed right now) and they're riddled with bad contracts because FAs don't sign with Cleveland for peanuts.

Dan Gilbert, a win-first owner, is more likely to overspend somewhere to bring talent in. I'm still hoping to pry Collison away from the Hornets along with some bad contracts, but that's probably asking a bit much.