Compare these two players

[Channing]

Through the first 5 years of their career. Which one is better?

Player 1:

16.7 ppg; 3.06 apg; 7.94 rpg

Player 2:

11.9 ppg; 1.4 apg; 5.4 rpg

Who got off to the better start in the NBA? Any guesses on who these two players are?

[yancem]

Through the first 5 years of their career. Which one is better?

Player 1:

16.7 ppg; 3.06 apg; 7.94 rpg

Player 2:

11.9 ppg; 1.4 apg; 5.4 rpg

Who got off to the better start in the NBA? Any guesses on who these two players are?

Well if you look at stats alone of course player 1 had a better start but you've given too little of a snap shot to really make an informed decision. How minutes did they play? Games? How did their teams fare? What was the talent around them like? All of these would have a rather large impact on my decision.

[duke4life32182]

Carlos Boozer and someone from UNC? Oh yeah, #1 got off to the better start, but more info is needed.

[Scoring Point]

I think #1 is Laettner

No clue on #2 though

[DukieInBrasil]

I thought player 1 might have been Boozer too, but Boozer's rebounding has never been as low as 8 rpb, the average cited. Then I thought it might be Grant but I don't think he was averaging that many rebounds early in his career, and GH was scoring over 20ppg from the beginning. I think it might be Luol Deng.
I think player 2 might be Kobe, he averaged like 7.5 ppg his rookie year, so 11+ after 5 years seems reasonable. Edit: checked the ESPN, Kobe averaged 11+ after 2 years, after 5 he was averaging about 17 or so.
Of the question asked: from the statistics given, player 1 would have to be thought of as having a better 5 years.

[Channing]

player 2 is none other than our old friend Marvin Williams. Now that he is 5 years in, there is a lot of chatter that he is a bust for the Hawks. Since Laettner is often cited as a bust (at the 3rd overall pick), I thought it was interesting that Williams (at the 2nd overall pick) appears to be an even bigger bust.

Now, he may right the ship, but he has a long way to go to catch Laettner.

[jimsumner]

No doubt that Laettner's pre-Achilles-injury career was much better than many believe.

But I think context matters here. Marvin Williams wasn't consensus national POY, wasn't ACC POY, didn't enter the NBA hyped as one of the greatest college players ever, didn't play in four FFs, didn't play on the Dream Team, and wasn't the face of one of the best college teams ever.

Hence, the different perceptions.

[CDu]

No doubt that Laettner's pre-Achilles-injury career was much better than many believe.

But I think context matters here. Marvin Williams wasn't consensus national POY, wasn't ACC POY, didn't enter the NBA hyped as one of the greatest college players ever, didn't play in four FFs, didn't play on the Dream Team, and wasn't the face of one of the best college teams ever.

Hence, the different perceptions.

Yeah, there's a big difference. In addition to the difference in perceptions, Williams also only played one year of college, whereas Laettner had three more years of development. To compare their first five years is invalid from the get-go: three of those years for Williams were developmental years that Laettner had in college. Further, Laettner played on some really crappy Minnesota teams, while Williams has played on some fairly talented Atlanta teams. Really, nothing about this comparison is relevant.

If one wants to say that Laettner gets a raw deal from the media due to injuries and inflated expectations, that's fine. I completely agree with that. But Williams isn't really a relevant comparison, in my mind.

[Channing]

I think its a very relevant comparison: Laettner went third overall while Williams went second overall. One is considered a bust if they dont live up to their expectations and draft position.

Duhon isn't considered a bust because he was not highly drafted. He exceeded expectations.

The point of the post was to show that Laettner gets a bum rap, especially from the UNC folks (preaching to the quior here, I know). When evaluating an NBA career, I dont think college accolades are all that relevant. What matters is the way they perform on the court. I have UNC fans as friends (a fatal flaw) who routinely bring up the Duke cant produce pro talent argument, and exhibit A is always Laettner. I showed them these stats and they didn't really have a response.

[Troublemaker]

The idea that Christian's career was a bust is so absurd that I don't even feel the need to defend him or to rag on Marvin Williams or other Heels who may be actual busts.

Christian was good enough to make an All-Star team before he was injured (and he played well in that All-Star game, incidentally). Case closed.

[greybeard]

player 2 is none other than our old friend Marvin Williams. Now that he is 5 years in, there is a lot of chatter that he is a bust for the Hawks. Since Laettner is often cited as a bust (at the 3rd overall pick), I thought it was interesting that Williams (at the 2nd overall pick) appears to be an even bigger bust.

Now, he may right the ship, but he has a long way to go to catch Laettner.

Joe Johnson from day one until today is an offense killer. He needs to occupy the ball way, way to be effective. The next time he give it up easily and cuts through to clear space will be the first.

The Hawks has never had a half court offense and still don't, not one to talk about anyway. JJ had the Woodson's complete endorsement to be da man, the rest of the team be damned, because Gearon et al gave away the ranch for him, I still believe unnecessarily--the Suns would never, ever have matched--to create a scism with Belkin and because Woodson don't know jack about offense. You give JJ the ball and have Smooth on the other side and good luck running an offense.

If your style is to play the game, the half court game, anywhere near a manner that involves some flow, that does justice to the game, and I believe Williams does, good luck.

Williams got some life with the arrival of Bibby, but JJ still sufficates that offense, and, this season, whatever air that was left was sucked up by Crawford.

Williams can play, only not in Woodson's, er Gearson's system. By the way, bet a nickle that nobody offers squadoosh for Joe's services. The talking heads making him a super star. America, is this a great country or what?

[yancem]

Joe Johnson from day one until today is an offense killer. He needs to occupy the ball way, way to be effective. The next time he give it up easily and cuts through to clear space will be the first.

The Hawks has never had a half court offense and still don't, not one to talk about anyway. JJ had the Woodson's complete endorsement to be da man, the rest of the team be damned, because Gearon et al gave away the ranch for him, I still believe unnecessarily--the Suns would never, ever have matched--to create a scism with Belkin and because Woodson don't know jack about offense. You give JJ the ball and have Smooth on the other side and good luck running an offense.

If your style is to play the game, the half court game, anywhere near a manner that involves some flow, that does justice to the game, and I believe Williams does, good luck.

Williams got some life with the arrival of Bibby, but JJ still sufficates that offense, and, this season, whatever air that was left was sucked up by Crawford.

Williams can play, only not in Woodson's, er Gearson's system. By the way, bet a nickle that nobody offers squadoosh for Joe's services. The talking heads making him a super star. America, is this a great country or what?

Just so you know, I had to read your post 3 times to figure out what you where talking about. I kept wondering how JJ had anything to do with the Hawks. Last I had seen he was playing against them in the the playoffs;)

[hedevil]

My guess to the OP is

#1 - Marvin Williams

#2 - Christian Laettner

Am I right? Huh? Am I right?

just messin' :D

[CDu]

I think its a very relevant comparison: Laettner went third overall while Williams went second overall. One is considered a bust if they dont live up to their expectations and draft position.

Duhon isn't considered a bust because he was not highly drafted. He exceeded expectations.

The point of the post was to show that Laettner gets a bum rap, especially from the UNC folks (preaching to the quior here, I know). When evaluating an NBA career, I dont think college accolades are all that relevant. What matters is the way they perform on the court. I have UNC fans as friends (a fatal flaw) who routinely bring up the Duke cant produce pro talent argument, and exhibit A is always Laettner. I showed them these stats and they didn't really have a response.

The problem is that you're comparing apples to oranges. You're comparing the first five years of Laettner's career (which is not the part of his career that got him labeled a bust - it was the stuff AFTER that) to the first five years of Williams's career. But Williams was four years younger at the same point in their NBA careers. And he was on a more talented team, so less was expected of him statistically than Laettner (who was expected to carry his Timberwolves team).

I think it's a pretty weak comparison. Just because they both went third doesn't mean that the expectations were the same for both players. In fact, the expectations for both were VERY different. To put it in perspective, a 19-year old Williams wouldn't have gone anywhere near 3rd in the 1992 draft. Laettner only went third because there were two franchise/hall-of-fame caliber centers (O'Neal, Mourning) who went ahead of him.

[DukieInBrasil]

The Hawks may be a more talented team but until this year, and to a lesser extent last year, they were terrible. So the first 3 years of MW's career he played on a terrible team. So did Laettner, whose Timberwolves were not nearly as talented as the Hawks of MW's 1st 3 seasons.
Still the age and college developmental issues I think do create some flaws when comparing "1st 5 seasons". True, hardly anybody went NBA as an underclassman in CL's day and few guys as talented as CL stick around until their Sr. years today, so the whole context is skewed. But it is undeniable that CL underwent a lot of developmental progress before going pro, no way would his averages be as good in his 1st 5 years if he had left Duke as a Fr.
I'm still sad for Chris that he suffered such a horrible injury, b/c we'll never know how well he could have carried the Duke banner as a pro.

[miramar]

$58 million

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/laettch01.html

Nice bust.

[CDu]

The Hawks may be a more talented team but until this year, and to a lesser extent last year, they were terrible. So the first 3 years of MW's career he played on a terrible team. So did Laettner, whose Timberwolves were not nearly as talented as the Hawks of MW's 1st 3 seasons.
Still the age and college developmental issues I think do create some flaws when comparing "1st 5 seasons". True, hardly anybody went NBA as an underclassman in CL's day and few guys as talented as CL stick around until their Sr. years today, so the whole context is skewed. But it is undeniable that CL underwent a lot of developmental progress before going pro, no way would his averages be as good in his 1st 5 years if he had left Duke as a Fr.
I'm still sad for Chris that he suffered such a horrible injury, b/c we'll never know how well he could have carried the Duke banner as a pro.

Beyond that, I'd argue that Laettner's first five years are decidedly not the reason he's labeled by some a bust (and I don't think he was a bust, by any means). It was the fact that, after his fifth season, he never again topped 14 points or 7 rebounds per game. Injuries derailed his career at that point. Had Laettner not had the injuries, he'd likely not be considered a bust by many reasonable people. So comparing his injury-free first five years omits all of the data that represent why people labeled him a bust.

[MChambers]

He made one NBA All-Star game, which is more than most NBA players do.

[kong123]

Horrible comparison. Marvin Williams never started for UNC. He came off the bench every game. Laettnear, was and may still be, the best player to play at Duke. While some may argue that Grant Hill is that player, Laettner accomplished as much if not more than any other college basketball player in history. Tyler Hansbrough would be a better comparison, but I don't even think that is close. Hansbrough was a great college player, but he was never on the level of Laettner. He was quite effective in his 4 years and accomplished a ton, but he is no where near as skilled as Laettner.

Also, Laettner played in a different era. NBA drafts on potential more these days than they had to do back in 92. When Laettner was drafted, the team had 4 years of college success at the highest level to make their decision on. Worst comparison ever.

[Channing]

alright, its clear my intention for posting the comparison isnt resonating with some (most?) of you. My point was that I (and I assume I am not alone) routinely hear from UNC fans that Laettner was a bust because he was such a high pick blah blah blah. I think most here agree that Laettner was not a bust, and in fact had a pretty solid (if not truly spectacular) career, and but for a horrible injury, might have been a really really good NBA player for an extended period of time.

However, these same UNC fans lament Marvin Williams' ineffectiveness in the NBA as being because he is on a bad team or his teammates dont pass or any other of a million reasons.

I have no issue saying that Tim Duncan was a far more productive number 1 overall pick than Kwame Brown, even though Brown never went to college and Duncan attended four years. Similarly, Laettner, who the UNC fans love to point to as a massive failure (for some reason that obviously has nothing to do with statistics) was a far more effective player than Marvin Williams was/is (even looking at Williams' 4th year in the league as compared to Laettner's first) - as a comparison of top 3 picks.

[darthur]

To put it in perspective, a 19-year old Williams wouldn't have gone anywhere near 3rd in the 1992 draft. Laettner only went third because there were two franchise/hall-of-fame caliber centers (O'Neal, Mourning) who went ahead of him.

Shrug. Shaq has had an incredible career, but Marvin Williams was picking ahead of Deron Williams and Chris Paul, both of whom can give Alonzo Mourning a run for his money.

[kong123]

With the expectations Laettner had leaving college and the fact that he was the only collegiate to be placed on the original Dream Team, he did not have a insanely great NBA career. Did he peak in college? Was his game more effective on the collegiate level? Who knows, but he had the sort of swagger and pedigree that made you think he was going to set the NBA on fire. He didn't. He made 1 all-star game. He wasn't a perennial all-star. Carlos Boozer, Grant Hill, and Elton Brand all have been to at least 2 all-star games. They didn't have the college career that Laettner had. People had greater expectations for Laettner, he didn't quite live up to those for whatever reason, bad teams or injury. Is he a bust, maybe not, but could a fan say that he didn't achieve as much as one would have expected? Sure.

[CDu]

Similarly, Laettner, who the UNC fans love to point to as a massive failure (for some reason that obviously has nothing to do with statistics) was a far more effective player than Marvin Williams was/is (even looking at Williams' 4th year in the league as compared to Laettner's first) - as a comparison of top 3 picks.

Therein lies my issue with your comparison. You're making a statement about effectiveness using a comparison that can't allow such a statement. Even in the 4th/1st year comparison, you've still got apples-to-oranges comparisons in terms of team makeup. Laettner was on a truly awful team with no one to really take away his shots. Williams was on a solid team with two very good wing players taking away his shots.

I completely agree that Laettner was more productive as a rookie than Williams was as a 4th year player. But that doesn't necessarily mean he was more effective. Productivity and effectiveness are not the same thing.

That, along with the differences in expectations and with the differences in the reason for why Laettner was considered a bust, are the biggest problems with the comparisons.

Is it fair to call Laettner a bust? I don't think so. In that sense, I agree with your overarching point. But the comparison you're using isn't a very sound way to illustrate that. It's apples to oranges on too many levels.

[CDu]

Shrug. Shaq has had an incredible career, but Marvin Williams was picking ahead of Deron Williams and Chris Paul, both of whom can give Alonzo Mourning a run for his money.

You're missing the point, though. It's not about the results after the pick. It's about the expectations at the time of the pick. O'Neal and Mourning were considered cornerstone/franchise big men. Williams and Paul had question marks coming out and weren't considered locks. Williams and Paul have both greatly exceeded expectations and are certainly elite players (perhaps as much or moreso than Mourning was). But that's not relevant to the expectations at the point of each of those drafts.

[kong123]

this thread should be erased to avoid further embarrassment for the member that started it......

[sagegrouse]

Following Thomas Aquinas, I am evaluating Christian in terms of both "horizontal" and "vertical equity."

Here is a table that compares the "verticals" with the top 15 draft picks in 1992 and a following table that compares his "horizontals" with other #3 overall draft picks from 1984 to 1998.

Jimmy Jackson, the #4 pick, was better than Christian by three career measures. Robert Horry had more minutes and assists, and clarence Weatherspoon had more minutes and RBs. To me, Christian's results were not out of line with his draft position.

The second table compares Christian with the other #3 picks from 1984 (Michael Jordan) to 1998 (Raef Lafrentz). Christian is above the medain ranking of "8" in all measures and well above it in RBs. It shows what a lottery the draft is, though, even after getting a good position in the lottery. For every Michael Jordan or Grant Hill, there is a Chris Washburn or Dennis Hopson.



Pick # 1992 Draft Picks Minutes Points RBs Assists
1 Shaquille O'Neal (C) 1 1 1 1
2 Alonzo Mourning (C) 5 2 2 11
3 Christian Laettner (PF) 6 4 4 4
4 Jimmy Jackson (SG) 2 3 7 2
5 LaPhonso Ellis (PF) 10 10 8 10
6 Tom Gugliotta (PF) 7 6 5 5
7 Walt Williams (SF) 9 7 9 7
8 Todd Day (SG)-- 12 11 13 13
9 Weatherspoon(PF) 3 5 3 8
10 Adam Keefe (PF)-- 14 14 10 14
11 Robert Horry (SF) 4 9 6 3
12 Harold Miner (SG) 15 15 15 15
13 Bryant Stith (SG) 11 12 12 9
14 Malik Sealy (SF) 13 13 14 12
15 Anthony Peeler (SG) 8 8 11 6

Year Player Minutes Points RBs Assists
1984 Michael Jordan 1 1 1 1
1985 Xavier McDaniel 7 5 4 10
1986 Chris Washburn 15 15 15 15
1987 Dennis Hopson 14 14 14 14
1988 Charles Smith 11 11 8 12
1989 Sean Elliott 8 9 9 9
1990 Chris Jackson 12 10 13 8
1991 Bill Owens 10 12 6 11
1992 Laettner (PF) 6 7 3 6
1993 Penny Hardaway 9 8 10 4
1994 Grant Hill 4 4 5 3
1995 Stackhouse 3 2 11 5
1996 Abdur-Rahim 2 3 2 7
1997 C. Billups 5 6 12 2
1998 Raef Lafrentz 13 13 7 13



sagegrouse

[DukieInBrasil]

this thread should be erased to avoid further embarrassment for the member that started it......

Is it embarrassing that a UNC alum is considered a "bust" by some people?

I would hesitate to call Marvin a bust, but he has yet to elevate his game to the level of being a star, though he could probably start for several teams.
In a similar way that it is irrational to say Laettner was a bust (due to very serious injuries) it is far too early to call Marvin a bust. Even if he doesn't improve dramatically from the player that he is now, he would still be considered a solid/reasonable/good NBA player. Is that a bust? If so, the majority of NBA players are busts. Would it make him a bust to be "only" a solid NBA player despite being the 3rd overall pick? I'd say that is overly harsh. He still has time left in his career to become a starter, team leader or even potentially an All-Star. He wouldn't be a bust then.

[Troublemaker]

He made 1 all-star game. He wasn't a perennial all-star.

Well, that criticism is sort of ridiculous since a player has to be extremely good at basketball just to be an NBA All-Star even once. I mean, really. Think about how absurd a notion it would be to ever see Marvin Williams, Brandan Wright, or Tyler Hansbrough make an All-Star team. And that's no knock against those guys. I'm just pointing what a huge, HUGE gap it is between being a player in the NBA, even a solid player, and being one of the top 25 or so in the league.

Christian's career went like this. 4 years with a very bad Minnesota team. In Year 5, his first season playing on a good team (Atlanta), he was an All-Star. Before Year 7 started, he tore his Achilles was never the same again. Is it so bad for a player to have made "only" one All-Star team in his first six years playing on very bad teams most of the time and then getting seriously injured before playing in the league another 7 years? Nope.

Yes, the expectations for him coming out of college were outsized due to his incredible college success. But is that really his fault? Maybe, instead of winning two national championships, he should've tried less hard in college, went to a couple of NITs and reduced his pro expectations so that people wouldn't call him a bust. But I imagine that scenario wouldn't have been so fun for him OR for Duke fans. (I can only imagine, though).

No, the proper way to assess whether Christian was a "bust" or not is, as sagegrouse astutely points out above, to compare him to other top picks and big men from drafts past. On the whole, he seems to stack up pretty well.

[kong123]

Well, you can choose any angle you wish to look at it, but fact remains- Laettner was considered then and many still consider him now, the one of the best college basketball players EVER. I haven't heard of/I do not remember most of those other players mentioned in that post.

Remember, stats do not tell the whole story. If you look at someones college career and reflect back on the expectations you placed on him at the time, he did not deliver. He was a solid player for much of the time, but he was not the star he was in college. I would have no problem with that. Tyler Hansbrough will never live up to his college career but the expectations placed on him are much less. He can only overachieve in that department, but if he fails to have a long career in the NBA, I am sure I will find a post on this forum talking about how much of a failure he is. The difference is, the expectations placed on the player.