Top Summer Movies 2010

[Udaman]

Hard to believe...but the time is near for the summer movie release period. A week from Friday things start off with Iron Man 2....and then it's pretty much non-stop until August. Time to make your picks for the top 5 movie grossing films (U.S. Only).

This year, I actually think will be tough. Where do films like Sex and the City 2 rank? How will all the kid 3-D movies play out? Is there another Hangover to crash the party? Will movies like Robin Hood and Prince of Persia cancel each other out? Will Twilight still have legs? Is M.Knight Shamalan officially gone? Does Tom Cruise still have legs?

Make your top 5 selections

[JBDuke]

In order:

1. Toy Story 3
2. Iron Man 2
3. Shrek Forever After
4. Twilight: Eclipse
5. Knight and Day

Dark Horse: Inception

[NashvilleDevil]

In Order:

1. Iron Man 2
2. Toy Story 3
3. Twilight
4. Robin Hood
5. Shrek

Sleepers: The A-Team, Inception, The Other Guys and Dinner for Schmucks

[murpho]

Iron Man 2
Twilight
Toy Story 3
Robin Hood
Despicable Me

[hurleyfor3]

Can I just wait until December when the Tron movie comes out?

[hurleyfor3]

Will Twilight still have legs.... Does Tom Cruise still have legs?


More importantly, does Sarah Jessica Parker at age 45?

[JasonEvans]

You need to not list your picks in order. The contest is merely to see if anyone can name all 5 of the top 5. I don't have the time at the moment to look up the past couple summers, but I think we have had multiple people get 4 out of 5 in each of the past 2 years. If memory serves, no one has gotten 5 out of 5.

--Jason "need to do me some research -- I have not been as up on movies as usual this year" Evans

[cato]

You need to not list your picks in order. I think we have had multiple people get 4 out of 5 in each of the past 2 years. If memory serves, no one has gotten 5 out of 5.

--Jason "need to do me some research -- I have not been as up on movies as usual this year" Evans

I think that's right. Each year there has been a movie that came out of nowhere and reached the top 5. IIRC, I've been one of the 5-10 people who got 4 of the 5. I am putting that streak in jeopardy by doing absolutely no research on these movies and going with my first guess.

[Jarhead]

Can't vote until I see them. In fact, how can anyone vote without seeing them. I'll have to wait until Netflix sends 'em to me. Most of the names don't excite me. This is like the pre-season college hoops poll, if you ask me.:cool:

[NashvilleDevil]

You need to not list your picks in order. The contest is merely to see if anyone can name all 5 of the top 5. I don't have the time at the moment to look up the past couple summers, but I think we have had multiple people get 4 out of 5 in each of the past 2 years. If memory serves, no one has gotten 5 out of 5.

--Jason "need to do me some research -- I have not been as up on movies as usual this year" Evans

How cool would it be if the 1st time someone picked all 5 they also did it in order?

[JasonEvans]

Went back and looked at the past couple years...

In 2009, the top 5 were - Transformers 2, Potter 6, UP, Hangover, Star Trek.

It was not possible for anyone to get 5 out of 5 last summer. Our list of films to vote upon did not include The Hangover. I suppose you could have voted for "other" and listed The Hangover in your post, but no one did that. I think a fair number of people got 4 out of 5 including A-TexDevil, bjornolf, and Udaman. A list of what everyone voted for can be seen here (http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/poll.php?do=showresults&pollid=668).

In 2008, the top 5 were - Dark Knight, Iron Man, Indiana Jones 4, Hancock, and Wall*E

Clearly, it would have been possible for someone to pick all 5 of those films. None of them were real darkhorse surprises. Still, none of us picked all 5. Therer were 8 posters out of 66 who voted who got 4 of the 5 right (I was among them).

We shall see what happens this year. I see 3 dead solid locks to make the top 5 this summer.

--Jason "still need to do some research to figure out my other 2 votes" Evans

[Udaman]

I did get 4 out of 5 last year...and the year before that.

Also, it should be noted, that yes - 2 years ago our great JE did indeed get 4 out of 5....but his one missing pick....just so happened to be The Dark Knight, which was only the 2nd highest grossing film of all time when all was said and done (later to be moved to the 3rd highest, once Avatar came out).

So he was 4 out of 5....but with an asterix.

:)

[DUKIECB]

I don't know what half of those choices are! Can someone post some quick tidbits on each one? I guess I've got to do some research.

[theAlaskanBear]

Iron Man 2
Shrek 3
Twilight
Toy Story 3
Robin Hood

Dark horse: Prince of Persia

[darthur]

I don't see as many obvious winners in this group as in past years. I only feel comfortable about Toy Story 3, Iron Man 2, and Twilight.

[cato]

I don't see as many obvious winners in this group as in past years. I only feel comfortable about Toy Story 3, Iron Man 2, and Twilight.

Agreed on those 3 -- you always have to bet on the big sequals. They may or may not be good movies, but they put butts in the seats.

I also always pick an action movie that looks like a blockbuster. In this case, I went with Robin Hood. Mostly because I love the Robin Hood story, and even watched that horrible Costner version many times back in the day. Russel Crowe seems like a douche IRL, but that probably helps him play a brigand.

Finally, I pick a family movie (i.e., not a sequal). In 08, I got tripped up by picking the Narnia movie (not realizing at the time how horrible the first installment was) and missing Wall*E. Last year, I went with Up, which worked (but missed on the new Ice Age movie, which was both a sequal and a family movie -- how could I lose? Dang you, Hangover).

[JasonEvans]

I don't see as many obvious winners in this group as in past years. I only feel comfortable about Toy Story 3, Iron Man 2, and Twilight.

I see those as the 3 locks. Picking the other 2 is the challenge right now.

--Jason "I missed Dark Knight... but am tempted to pick Inception, how stupid is that?!?!?!" Evans

[DukeGirl4ever]

I can only pick one movie: TWILIGHT: ECLIPSE.
Sorry, I've got Edward blinders on...I guess that's what happens when he sparkles - can't see past that to any other movie! :p

That being said, I know NOTHING about the other movies (seriously, I live under a rock since I had my daughter) so I can't really vote for anything else.

[cf-62]

Went back and looked at the past couple years...

In 2009, the top 5 were - Transformers 2, Potter 6, UP, Hangover, Star Trek.

It was not possible for anyone to get 5 out of 5 last summer. Our list of films to vote upon did not include The Hangover. I suppose you could have voted for "other" and listed The Hangover in your post, but no one did that. I think a fair number of people got 4 out of 5 including A-TexDevil, bjornolf, and Udaman. A list of what everyone voted for can be seen here (http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/poll.php?do=showresults&pollid=668).

In 2008, the top 5 were - Dark Knight, Iron Man, Indiana Jones 4, Hancock, and Wall*E

Clearly, it would have been possible for someone to pick all 5 of those films. None of them were real darkhorse surprises. Still, none of us picked all 5. Therer were 8 posters out of 66 who voted who got 4 of the 5 right (I was among them).

We shall see what happens this year. I see 3 dead solid locks to make the top 5 this summer.

--Jason "still need to do some research to figure out my other 2 votes" Evans

Interesting that nobody voted for Inglorious Basterds to break Top 5 - what I believed was clearly the best movie of the summer.

[cato]

Interesting that nobody voted for Inglorious Basterds to break Top 5 - what I believed was clearly the best movie of the summer.

That was my favorite too, but I didn't think it would be a top 5 box office contender. Note that this isn't about the best movies -- it's about butts in seats.

[JasonEvans]

That was my favorite too, but I didn't think it would be a top 5 box office contender. Note that this isn't about the best movies -- it's about butts in seats.

Yup. To be precise it is about butts in seats + 3D glasses over eyes = mucho moolah. Just ask James Cameron.

--Jason "a successful 3D flick adds about 15-20% to the boxoffice take from the 3D extra charge" Evans

[cf-62]

That was my favorite too, but I didn't think it would be a top 5 box office contender. Note that this isn't about the best movies -- it's about butts in seats.

Oh yeah, I understand that. You can see it in my votes last year. I picked Transformers (accurate selection), but didn't even bother to go, even though I thought there were some interesting things to be seen in Transformers I.

Conversely, I didn't vote for Terminator, even though it was one of the only movies I was anxiously awaiting - as I thought the "return to the roots" genre of John Connor wouldn't necessarily pack in the seats.

[cf-62]

Yup. To be precise it is about butts in seats + 3D glasses over eyes = mucho moolah. Just ask James Cameron.

--Jason "a successful 3D flick adds about 15-20% to the boxoffice take from the 3D extra charge" Evans

What extra 3-d charge? There's no extra charge in Durham.

[JasonEvans]

What extra 3-d charge? There's no extra charge in Durham.

Really? I am shocked. Real 3D (not the red and blue colored stuff) generally is a $2-$4 add-on in most theaters. If you do not get upcharged for it, you are really lucky.

--Jason "here is a story (http://www.thewrap.com/article/exhibitors-testing-consumer-tolerance-3d-upcharges-15674) on efforts to limit the upcharge" Evans

[cf-62]

Really? I am shocked. Real 3D (not the red and blue colored stuff) generally is a $2-$4 add-on in most theaters. If you do not get upcharged for it, you are really lucky.

--Jason "here is a story (http://www.thewrap.com/article/exhibitors-testing-consumer-tolerance-3d-upcharges-15674) on efforts to limit the upcharge" Evans

It would make sense to have the upcharge - although if I actually PAID for the glasses, I would demand a pair that fit, didn't hurt my head, and didn't have scratched lenses.

Personally, I find the spate of 3d movies annoying. Even Avatar really only had about 30 minutes of really cool 3-d effects. The rest was like being at Epcot.

[Blue in the Face]

Iron Man 2
Shrek
Toy Story
Twilight
Dinner for Schmucks (suspect this will be mediocre, but rolling the dice on it being another Hangover).

[brevity]

I need to remind myself to set up this poll next year. 11 named options, 1 "other," and most importantly, scheduled release dates. The success of The Hangover last year, while still surprising, was somewhat foreseeable once you noticed that nothing eventful was coming out in that movie's first 3-4 weeks of release.

For those who plan to vote before Friday, I add the following. (Info from Box Office Mojo (http://boxofficemojo.com/).)

Iron Man 2 (May 7, no wide release opposition)
Robin Hood (May 14, against Just Wright and Letters to Juliet)
Shrek Forever After (May 21, against MacGruber)
Sex and the City 2 (May 27, against Prince of Persia)
Prince of Persia (May 28, against SATC2)
Get Him to the Greek (June 4, against Killers, Marmaduke, and Splice)
The A-Team (June 11, against The Karate Kid)
Toy Story 3 (June 18, against Jonah Hex)
Knight and Day (June 25, against Grown Ups)
Grown Ups (June 25, against Knight & Day)
Twilight: Eclipse (June 30, against The Last Airbender)
The Last Airbender (July 2, against Twilight: Eclipse)
Despicable Me (July 9, against Predators)
Inception (July 16, against The Sorcerer's Apprentice)
Salt (July 23, against Dinner for Schmucks)
Dinner for Schmucks (July 23, against Salt)
The Adjustment Bureau (September 19? What is this doing here?)

Note that SATC2 and Twilight open a day or two early. Apparently, that's how chicks roll.

I got 4 out of 5 last year, picking Public Enemies instead of Other (The Hangover). Which was pretty damn good, considering the leap of faith I took in ignoring both Memorial Day releases (Terminator: Salvation and Night at the Museum 2). I doubt I'll do as well this year.

[JasonEvans]

I threw it.

I voted for the 4 super-sequels (Iron Man 2, Toy Story 3, Shrek 4, Twilight 3) because I think those 4 are pretty much locks to make $220+ million just like their earlier versions did.

I spent a lot of time thinking about my fifth pick. Nothing else really stands out to me. Robin Hood is a good choice (name/story recognition make it alm ost like a sequel). So is Prince of Persia because of the pedigree of the folks behind it (Mike Newell and Bruckheimer have pretty strong track records). I came really close to picking that one. I think Sorcerer's Apprentice (not on our list) could be a strong contender too as it may draw from kid and adult audiences to form a powerful combo.

Decent arguments can be made for many of the films on the ballot list.

And then I voted for Inception. Don't ask my why. I am fairly sure the sci-fi plot of the film (invading dreams) will make it virtually impossible for it to have the mass appeal neccessary to be in the top 5. But, I love everything Christopher Nolan has ever done and my mouse just magically clicked on Inception. I voted against Nolan last time around and hang my head in shame at that. Never again.

--Jason "is it too late to change my vote to Apprentice?" Evans

[Udaman]

So my picks are in.

First the three locks: Toy Story 3, Iron Man 2 and Shrek 4 (in that order). Absolute locks.

Then the one's I didn't vote for that most others did.

Robin Hood - this just looks too much like so many other movies done (not the least of which was Gladiator). I think it will do OK, and could certainly break the top 5, but I have a feeling it will fall flat in week 2 with Prince of Persia (more below).

Twilight: Yeah, the 2nd one did great...but it also came out in November with not much competition for that market...and no summer distractions or blockbusters. Plus, it just came out in November. My daughter (who is 11) saw it and didn't like it nearly as much as the 1st. I just have a feeling this one will do less than $200M

So, which two did I vote for:

Despicable Me.....there will be no true kid movies in competition with this one, and it comes out 3 weeks after Toy Story...and it's in 3D...and it looks funny. I think this makes $200M plus

The Last Airbender....huge gamble here. But again, it's 3D, and the previews look pretty cool - plus it has the 4th of July all to itself (other than Twilight, which will NOT capture the 15 and under boy market at all). If this gets even remotely good reviews, it could pop.

As for my sleepers: They would be Dinner for Smucks (great cast, true comedy, when there aren't more out there) and possibly Inception - though I think the sci fi premise will hurt the total audience.

[Udaman]

Oh, forgot to add the busts. Prince of Persia for certain. This movie has trouble written all over it - especially the fact that it follows Robin Hood. This is a Hollywood bust waiting to happen.

Also, I could see Knight and Day and the A Team really falling short of studio hopes.

[cato]

Then the one's I didn't vote for that most others did.

Robin Hood - this just looks too much like so many other movies done (not the least of which was Gladiator). I think it will do OK, and could certainly break the top 5, but I have a feeling it will fall flat in week 2 with Prince of Persia (more below).

I'll take that bet (well, I guess I did, since I voted for Robin Hood). People love adventures, the Robin Hood story and movie heros who stand up to English kings. I think that will be enough to make it a blockbuster, if the action is good, the plot is compelling, and everything else is adequate (see: Braveheart). Oh, and I noticed that the lead was on the Today show the other day, so it's obviously getting marketing support from the studio. All in all, my guess is that it hits big.

[theAlaskanBear]

I'll take that bet (well, I guess I did, since I voted for Robin Hood). People love adventures, the Robin Hood story and movie heros who stand up to English kings. I think that will be enough to make it a blockbuster, if the action is good, the plot is compelling, and everything else is adequate (see: Braveheart). Oh, and I noticed that the lead was on the Today show the other day, so it's obviously getting marketing support from the studio. All in all, my guess is that it hits big.

Me and my friends are all joking that robin hood is gladiator 2...but that doesnt mean we arent going to pack the theatres for it!! No one can play a bad I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this. quite like Russell Crowe.

I am already suggesting they make another movie with Crowe, either set in Spain during the Reconquista, or as Cortez or Bernal Diaz del Castillo vs Tenochtitlan.

Then we could cast him in another violent epic set during the Napoleonic wars.

[Big Pappa]

I'm really ready for "Inception". Leo is a stud.

[Udaman]

My issue with Robin Hood is that the previews look forced. We've seen this movie before (both the style of movie, and the movie itself with Kevin Costner). It's also really, really long - coming in at nearly 2 1/2 hours (nearly 30 minutes longer than Iron Man 2).

Throw in that the next weekend it goes up against Shrek, and then Prince of Persia and Sex and the City....and I think it will fall rather sharply. Of course then there isn't really anything for two more weeks, so it might manage to pull in $25M or so each of those weeks.

We'll see, but I think this one comes in at under $200M, and I think the top 5 will clearly be $200M and above.

[Highlander]

Article on why Iron Man (http://www.eonline.com/uberblog/b179769_five_reasons_iron_man_2_could_be.html?utm_ source=eonline&utm_medium=rssfeeds&utm_campaign=rss_topstories) may not be the big winner this year:

[brevity]

I put my picks in not long after my last post. It turns out that my fate is tied to Brian12215 and PensDevil, who picked the same five movies. If nothing else, this tells me that Brian12215 and PensDevil have excellent taste.

It's unlikely many more people will vote on this in the next few hours, so here's how I see it.

Iron Man 2 is the first summer movie out of the gate, with (I repeat) no wide release competition. It will make over $150 million before the next film makes $1. That next film happens to be Robin Hood, and I can see it cutting into the same audience. This should prevent Iron Man 2 from topping the summer charts, but top 5 should be no problem.

Shrek Forever After, like all fourth films, is completely unnecessary and normally unlikely to crack the box office of the previous 3 films. But it has two things going for it: it's the first animated offering of the summer, and it has a 4 WEEK headstart on Pixar.

Toy Story 3 is that Pixar offering, and if they can make $200 million off French rats, silent robots, or widowed curmudgeons, they can do anything.

Twilight: Eclipse will be this year's Harry Potter: a November tradition that tries to make more money in the summer, but ends up doing about the same. In this case, that should be enough.

I agree with the others that the fifth film is not as obvious a choice, but I went with Despicable Me for two reasons: (1) after the strong showing of the third Ice Age last year, I'd rather pick too many animated films than too few; (2) with Miranda Cosgrove, the children's TV industry is going to promote the hell out of it. More than half the eventual audience won't even know who Steve Carell is.

Finally, for the second straight summer, I'm ignoring Memorial Day. Last year was a risk, but this year is easy. Sex and the City 2 and Prince of Persia are competing for the exact same target audience, and there are only so many gay men and single women to go around.

[PensDevil]

I put my picks in not long after my last post. It turns out that my fate is tied to Brian12215 and PensDevil, who picked the same five movies. If nothing else, this tells me that Brian12215 and PensDevil have excellent taste.


Thanks for the compliment. For the record my picks are in no way based on the films I think I will like.

Iron Man 2, sure. I like most any superhero movie. Even though early reviews say it isn't as good as the first, it will still do great.

Shrek 4.... Another big sequel. I liked the first Shrek. Thought the second was pretty good, but just more of the same. Never even bothered to watch the third.

Toy Story 3. A Pixar film. That's good enough for me. Not only do they rake in the cash, but I will watch anything Pixar puts out.

Twilight 3. Eh. I've read the books. Liked the first movie. The second was kind of slow and didn't really entertain me (just like the book). This one should be better, and it still carries the Twilight name.

Despicable Me looks like another animated film that both adults and children should enjoy. It should have a couple of weeks as the best family movie choice.

I can't bring myself to have any faith in a movie based on a video game anymore. There have been too many bad ones. I am also looking forward to Dinner for Schmucks, Inception and (guiltily) The A-Team.

Most likely the box office will not be getting my dollars though, as I typically wait for the BluRay releases. November/December is my summer blockbuster time. I haven't been to a theater since putting my own in a few years back. Which also means I haven't yet seen one of the new generation 3D movies. I may have to catch Toy Story 3 in 3D though...

[Udaman]

Sex and the City 2 and Prince of Persia are competing for the exact same target audience, and there are only so many gay men and single women to go around.


Brilliant (and hysterical because it's true)

[bundabergdevil]

Not sure if its too late to toss my picks in. Enjoyed lurking and watching results roll in last summer so thought I'd take a shot.

The Big 3 - Toy Story 3, Shrek 4, and Iron Man 2


I'm not sure Vampires have the same box office staying power as, say, pirates or robots so I'm not too big on Twilight. (Then again, I'm not a tween girl longing for mystery and intrigue.)

None of the comedies coming out strike me as having the chance to recreate the Wedding Crashers or Hangover effect.

And, none of the sprawling, large-scale adventure flicks (Robin Hood/Prince of Persia, etc) seem to have any "wow, this is going to be epic" sort of buzz.

I'd love to vote for Inception because I'm actually looking forward to it but I think I'm going to have to go animated and July 4th opening for my last two.

So, Despicable Me and The Last Airbender (...and I hope 'airbender' doesn't mean M. Night is whipping out another round of deadly wind or plant spores or Wahlberg acting.)

[bjornolf]

I didn't vote in time, so I'll just list mine:

Iron Man 2
Shrek Forever After
Toy Story 3
Twilight: Eclipse
Avatar: The Last Airbender

I want to pick Robin Hood cause I think I'll like it better, but the live action movie based on one of the most popular cartoons in Nickelodeon history just screams dark horse to me. The cartoon is great, I just don't know how it'll translate. However, millions of kids will flock to see it.

[bjornolf]

Twilight 3. Eh. I've read the books. Liked the first movie. The second was kind of slow and didn't really entertain me (just like the book). This one should be better, and it still carries the Twilight name.


Teenage girls will flock to it regardless. I don't see Twilight and Avatar having TOO much competition, as their target audiences don't cross much. Twilight will get 10-20 year old girls (have to remember, the girls that were 15 when the first book came out are 20 now). Avatar will get 5-20 year old boys (don't forget, the first season of Avatar was 2005, which means that 20 year olds today were 15 then).

[DukeUsul]

Teenage girls will flock to it regardless. I don't see Twilight and Avatar having TOO much competition, as their target audiences don't cross much. Twilight will get 10-20 year old girls (have to remember, the girls that were 15 when the first book came out are 20 now). Avatar will get 5-20 year old boys (don't forget, the first season of Avatar was 2005, which means that 20 year olds today were 15 then).

Don't forget all the thirtysomething women who will go to Twilight. Believe me.

[JasonEvans]

Somehow, 17.65% of the people who voted in our poll chose not to vote for Iron Man 2 as one of the top movies of the summer.

Ummm, that was a mistake.

Initial estimates of Iron Man 2's first weekend show that it made $133.6 million at the boxoffice.

That's a lot.

It is the 5th highest opening weekend in Hollywood history. I am sure there will be a big dropoff next weekend, there almost always is after a big opening, but with this kind of initial number, it is very hard to see Iron Man making less than $300 million.

Mark it down, the first of our top 5 is a done deal.

-Jason "next week: Robin Hood" Evans

[Udaman]

All of those who picked Robin Hood....prepare to have 1 of your top 5 picks down the drain.

Early reviews are mostly bad (Rotten Tomatoes at less than 50%). This is a long, and boring movie, and not enough repeat people will see it to make it a blockbuster. Less than $200M is looking highly, highly likely.

For me, this was easy to see coming...

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/robin_hood_2010/

[JasonEvans]

All of those who picked Robin Hood....prepare to have 1 of your top 5 picks down the drain.

Early reviews are mostly bad (Rotten Tomatoes at less than 50%). This is a long, and boring movie, and not enough repeat people will see it to make it a blockbuster. Less than $200M is looking highly, highly likely.

For me, this was easy to see coming...

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/robin_hood_2010/

Yup, all the Robin Hood pickers are in trouble.

It made $13.1 million on Friday, its opening day. Universal, the studio releasing it, says they expect about a $37-$40 million weekend. With a $40 million opening, it is really hard to see how the film will get to even $150 million, let alone the $220 million or so it will likely take to make the top 5.

Iron Man 2 made $15.1 million more on Friday and looks like it will pass the $200 million mark on Sunday or maybe Monday.

--Jason "more tomorrow, after the Boxoffice figures are more exact" Evans

[darthur]

For me, this was easy to see coming...

But who will take its place? Feels like a really weak crop this year, although perhaps we'll get some nice surprise movies.

[JasonEvans]

The final numbers show Robin Hood made $36 million. It had been initially pegged at a little above $37 million but the Sunday ticket sales were worse than expected. Ordinarily this might not mean anything but here it may be a sign of generally poor word-of-mouth on this film. Cinemascore, which polls audiences who come out of movies on opening night, gave Robin Hood an overall grade of B-minus. If you follow Cinemascore grades you know that this is a very poor rating as opening night viewers tend to be the biggest fans of a film and most movies get at least an A or an A-minus. Getting a B-minus is really bad.

All of this is a long way of saying Robin Hood ain't making $200 million and will not be in our top 5 of summer.

Meanwhile, Iron Man 2 has already steamed past the $200 million mark and currently stands at $211 million. It is a mortal lock for the top 5 as it probably has at least $75 million of boxoffice left over the next several weeks.

This week brings another big contender with Shrek Forever After. MacGruber also opens -- amazingly, the buzz on MacGruber is pretty good. We'll see what the boxoffice brings.

--Jason "Shrek will be big, of that I am sure" Evans

[JBDuke]

I realize that it's not a summer movie, but I'm impressed with the legs of "How To Train Your Dragon". It's over $200M now, still in the top 5 going into its 8th week of release. If you haven't seen it, I highly recommend it for older kids or younger ones that can take some pretty intense and sometimes scary action. (My 7 year old loved it, but she's downright fearless.) And it's clever and fun so adults can enjoy it, too. I saw it on Mother's Day, at my wife's request, and had a blast.

[bundabergdevil]

I don't plan on seeing it and it was not on our list of voting choices but it seems a small amount of buzz has been developing around MacGruber, the SNL skit spin-off. Its IMDB and Rotten Tomatoes ratings are surprisingly high for what I had assumed would be an awful movie. This morning the local radio morning guy interviewed Will Forte and started the conversation by talking to how rapidly expectations had been building for the film.

Kind of doubt it has a chance to replicate the success of Wedding Crashers or The Hangover but from what I hear, Macgruber earned its R-rating every bit as much as these other 'adult' comedies. Maybe a dark house? My gut says no but never underestimate the power of well-placed sex jokes.

[JasonEvans]

I don't plan on seeing it and it was not on our list of voting choices but it seems a small amount of buzz has been developing around MacGruber, the SNL skit spin-off. Its IMDB and Rotten Tomatoes ratings are surprisingly high for what I had assumed would be an awful movie. This morning the local radio morning guy interviewed Will Forte and started the conversation by talking to how rapidly expectations had been building for the film.

Kind of doubt it has a chance to replicate the success of Wedding Crashers or The Hangover but from what I hear, Macgruber earned its R-rating every bit as much as these other 'adult' comedies. Maybe a dark house? My gut says no but never underestimate the power of well-placed sex jokes.

It will be too low-brow and slapstick in its humor to make the Top 5. Wedding Crashers and Hangover had something a bit more serious about them that brought in a wider audience. MacGruber won't get there, even if it is really funny and fun.

JMHO.

This weekend brings Shrek, in 3D. It will open north of $80-million, perhaps higher than $100 million. It is a lock to make the Top 5.

--Jason "Shrek will disappoint if it is less than $300 mil in total BoxOffice" Evans

[cato]

It will be too low-brow and slapstick in its humor to make the Top 5. Wedding Crashers and Hangover had something a bit more serious about them that brought in a wider audience. MacGruber won't get there, even if it is really funny and fun.

JMHO.

This weekend brings Shrek, in 3D. It will open north of $80-million, perhaps higher than $100 million. It is a lock to make the Top 5.

--Jason "Shrek will disappoint if it is less than $300 mil in total BoxOffice" Evans

I had never even considered seeing MacGruber, until I saw a new commercial last night that prominently featured this quote from a review:

"MacGruber makes The Hangover look like Beaches."

Wow. The Hangover, emasculated over dinner. I want to see this movie.

[cato]

Shrek: We Should Have Stopped While We Were Ahead didn't pass my gut instinct test, and the reviews are falling into line. RT is lukewarm at 53% (with top critics at 33%).

It will be interesting to see if this can crack the top 5 if it isn't a good movie. I suspect not. With the other "family" offerings, are parents really going to want to spend a small fortune to go see this? Will kids still care? The original Shrek fans are probably into Lady Gaga by now, so this will have to appeal to kids that came to the franchise later. That may work, but I suspect this will suffer the same fate as the Ice Age installment last summer: good showing, but not top 5.

[JasonEvans]

Shrek: We Should Have Stopped While We Were Ahead didn't pass my gut instinct test, and the reviews are falling into line. RT is lukewarm at 53% (with top critics at 33%).


Shrek the Third was right around 40% on RT. It came out 3 years ago, which is not so long that the legions of 5 -8 year olds who saw it then would be too old to see the sequel. It made more than $330-million at the boxoffice.

Ticket prices are more expensive. 3D adds about 20% to the cost of tickets. Even if total ticket sales for this film are down 25% from the last Shrek film, it will make over $300 million dollars.

--Jason "It would be a huge shock if Shrek Forever After made less than $250 million" Evans

[cato]

Shrek the Third was right around 40% on RT. It came out 3 years ago, which is not so long that the legions of 5 -8 year olds who saw it then would be too old to see the sequel. It made more than $330-million at the boxoffice.

Ticket prices are more expensive. 3D adds about 20% to the cost of tickets. Even if total ticket sales for this film are down 25% from the last Shrek film, it will make over $300 million dollars.

--Jason "It would be a huge shock if Shrek Forever After made less than $250 million" Evans

Why must you answer my gut instinct with numbers and reason? I guess my remaining question is, if $250mm is the floor, will that be enough to get in the top 5? After all, rising ticket prices lift all boats.

I will be very disappointed in the movie going public if Shrek is in the top 5. But it wouldn't be the first time.

[bundabergdevil]

I am kind of with both you regarding Shrek. While it probably won't be anywhere near as good as the first or even the second one (the 3rd one was just weird --- using the Damien Rice tune was border line sacrilege in my book), I'd be shocked if it didn't make the top five.

With the tiered pricing system for movies now (IMAX, 3d, etc), the playing field is hardly level so it makes rooting for dark horses a little like pulling for Cornell over Kentucky in the tourney this year. Probably why I had to pick at least one underdog in my top 5.

With regard to MacGruber, yeah, its not going to sniff the top 5 but I've still been surprised by the little surge of buzz its experienced. I wouldn't be shocked if it pulled in more than Robin Hood did last week. Which would actually be quite a coup!

[Duke Mom]

Sorry, if this doesn't belong on your thread, but just saw Babies and I'm giving it two thumbs up! Not so widely distributed, but if it's playing in a theater near you, go see it. It will put a great big smile on your face (even if you are a grumpy old so and so). More than a film about cute babies, it is also an interesting sociological look at how different cultures raise children. Thoroughly enjoyed it!

Check out the movie trailer on youtube:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1vupEpNjCuY

[darthur]

I will be very disappointed in the movie going public if Shrek is in the top 5. But it wouldn't be the first time.

I see where you're coming from, but I can't see how it wouldn't make top 5.

I think the bigger insult is it will probably beat out How To Train Your Dragon, which IMO is vying with Shrek 1 to be the best animated feature of the last 10 years not made by Pixar.

[Duvall]

I will be very disappointed in the movie going public if Shrek is in the top 5. But it wouldn't be the first time.

I'm not sure that we blame the moviegoing public. I'm not sure there are going to be five good summer movies this year.

[JasonEvans]

Ummmm, I don't know how to say this, but Shrek Forever After may not be as much of a lock as many of us had thought.

It made $20,750,000 on Friday, which would be very good by most standards but is waaay down from the $38 million that Shrek 3 did on its opening day. Saturday is always better than Friday for kid flicks but even if Shrek does 50% more on Saturday ($30 million) and then $25 mill on Sunday it is looking at a $75 million opening, which is well short of expectations. The studio said it wa expecting a little more than $80 million but most analysts had expected closer to $100 million.

I think $70 million is very possible at this point.

Look, it is still gonna make $200+ million, but I am not so sure that $300 mill is a sure thing.

--Jason "word of mouth and 3D sales may be key -- I saw it and it was ok, better than 3 but not as good as 1 & 2" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Ummmm, I don't know how to say this, but Shrek Forever After may not be as much of a lock as many of us had thought.

It made $20,750,000 on Friday, which would be very good by most standards but is waaay down from the $38 million that Shrek 3 did on its opening day. Saturday is always better than Friday for kid flicks but even if Shrek does 50% more on Saturday ($30 million) and then $25 mill on Sunday it is looking at a $75 million opening, which is well short of expectations. The studio said it wa expecting a little more than $80 million but most analysts had expected closer to $100 million.

I think $70 million is very possible at this point.

Look, it is still gonna make $200+ million, but I am not so sure that $300 mill is a sure thing.

--Jason "word of mouth and 3D sales may be key -- I saw it and it was ok, better than 3 but not as good as 1 & 2" Evans

Well, the initial weekend estimate is at $71.2 million. Fine for most films but not nearly what had been expected for Shrek 4. I still think it has an excellent chance to make it to the $225+ million that shoudl ensure top 5 placement, but it may be a bit more of a sweat than most of us had anticipated.

Meanwhile, Robin Hood fell to $18.7 million in its second weekend and stands at a total of $66.1 million. It is clear that this film won't even reach $150 million in total boxoffice. It is out of the running for the top 5 of the summer.

--Jason "there is not much family competition over the next couple weeks-- which will help Shrek 4 a lot" Evans

[Tommac]

Robin Hood may not end up in the tp 5 but it is a great movie. I saw it Saturday and was pleasantly surprised considering the early criticicism. It is not the traditional Robin Hood story. It's basically a prequel to all the old Robin Hood stories you have heard before. I liked that it was different. Russell Crowe was great and the other supporting actors were good also. I would see it again and it will definitely be on my buy list when it comes out on DVD in several months.

[Udaman]

I quote Robin Williams' character in Good Will Hunting when Will said, "I read your book."


.....

"So you're the one."


Glad to see someone saw Robin Hood and didn't think it was boring, slow and completely unimportant.

[brevity]

But who will take its place? Feels like a really weak crop this year, although perhaps we'll get some nice surprise movies.

Standing by my choices -- maybe a short distance from Shrek Goes Forever After: The Final Chapter. But I'm starting to think that the 3 brave dramatists in the group (05dukie, Big Pappa, JasonEvans) may be onto something with Inception. (While tempted, I was burned by Public Enemies last year and couldn't do it again.)

This week's In Contention (http://incontention.com/?p=25230) box office recap speculates on the film's chances. In the comments, the host posits that it will outgross the last Leo film (Shutter Island, $130 million) in its first 5 days. On the subject of Christopher Nolan's non-Batman projects, he adds:


The Prestige was an October $40 mil period mystery from the director of Batman Begins. Inception is a July $200 mil sci-fi action flick from the director of The Dark Knight. Seriously guys, you can get fanboy nerdy on this one. It’s gonna be huge.

[bundabergdevil]

And, to go ahead and close the loop on the MacGruber buzz I thought I was hearing, it returned a pitiful $4.1m --- or roughly the tuition of 35 Duke students. So, after only 10 posts to my name, I've already lost all credibility! Its still getting better reviews than I imagined it would but I'm not going to see it.

...Marmaduke, on the other hand, I am thoroughly anticipating ;)

[JasonEvans]

Hmmm, here is an interesting article (http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/05/25/1647393/is-shreks-box-office-collapse.html)on Shrek 4's boxoffice disappointment.

Shrek 4 had relatively good reviews and people who saw it responded fairly positively, meaning it did not get killed by word-of-mouth. The explanation now being put out there is that people simply are sick of paying $4 extra per ticket for a 3D film. As a result, Shrek performed poorly on 3D screens and its boxofficve take was well below industry estimates.

The article says...


"We wonder whether the U.S. consumer is simply telling movie exhibitors that 3-D pricing has simply gone too far, too fast for the average movie. While consumers may have no issue paying a 3-D premium for a movie such as 'Avatar' or 'Alice in Wonderland,' consumers may downgrade to 2-D for weaker content such as 'Shrek.'"

--Jason "I saw it in 2D, no way was I gonna pay an extra $16 (family of 4) to see Shrek 4 in 3D" Evans

[Udaman]

JE - do you think you missed anything by moving down to 2-D?

And I agree, I think there is very soon going to be a backlash with the 3-D experience, and the extra cost. Up here in Boston, to take myself, my wife and my 3 kids to a 3-D move (say Toy Story 3). Costs $60. If I get all of us a kids pack - that's $34 more.

So that's almost $100 to go see a movie....and that is simply way, way, way too much. Especially since I know I can wait 3 months and rent the movie for $5, or buy it outright for less than $20.

The movie industry is about to get slaughtered....and I don't think they have any clue that this is coming their way.

[theAlaskanBear]

JE - do you think you missed anything by moving down to 2-D?

And I agree, I think there is very soon going to be a backlash with the 3-D experience, and the extra cost. Up here in Boston, to take myself, my wife and my 3 kids to a 3-D move (say Toy Story 3). Costs $60. If I get all of us a kids pack - that's $34 more.

So that's almost $100 to go see a movie....and that is simply way, way, way too much. Especially since I know I can wait 3 months and rent the movie for $5, or buy it outright for less than $20.

The movie industry is about to get slaughtered....and I don't think they have any clue that this is coming their way.

As a broke college student, I can tell you that movie prices have spiraled past the point of regular attendance. Me and my friends used to go out and see movies 2-3 times a month in the theatres. Over the last two years, I've stopped attending altogether. The last movie I went to in the theatres was Sherlock Holmes over Christmas. Before that, it was another 6 months.

Thank god for Netflix.

[JasonEvans]

JE - do you think you missed anything by moving down to 2-D?

In an animated film? The odds are extremely slim.

3D works for me when it transforms where I am and takes me into the film more than usual. That can never happen in an animated film so why waste money on 3D?

--Jason

[bjornolf]

In an animated film? The odds are extremely slim.

3D works for me when it transforms where I am and takes me into the film more than usual. That can never happen in an animated film so why waste money on 3D?

--Jason

Weren't you the guy who said "Up" in 3D was amazing?

[JasonEvans]

Weren't you the guy who said "Up" in 3D was amazing?

Nope. I did not see Up in 3D. I was the guy who thought Up was just so-so and in the bottom third of all the Pixar films.

I thought Avatar in 3D was stunning but that is the only film I have seen in 3D where I felt the 3D enhanced my moviegoing experience.

--Jason "I tend to skip films on 3D because I rarely think it is worth it-- I never saw Alice in Wonderland" Evans

[cato]

Hmmm, here is an interesting article (http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/05/25/1647393/is-shreks-box-office-collapse.html)on Shrek 4's boxoffice disappointment.

Shrek 4 had relatively good reviews and people who saw it responded fairly positively, meaning it did not get killed by word-of-mouth. The explanation now being put out there is that people simply are sick of paying $4 extra per ticket for a 3D film. As a result, Shrek performed poorly on 3D screens and its boxofficve take was well below industry estimates.

The article says...



--Jason "I saw it in 2D, no way was I gonna pay an extra $16 (family of 4) to see Shrek 4 in 3D" Evans


You also have to take into account the fact that this is the second installment in the series to get luke warm reviews. Sure, people will slavishly trek to theaters to see sequels that aren't as good as the original -- but for how long? Four trips to the well is probably one too many.

As I noted above, why spend a small fortune seeing this one in the theater (or in 3d, as you pointed out), when you can spend that small fortune on something fresh (or at least, relatively fresh)?

[JasonEvans]

It seems there was a reason so few of us supported Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time (other than a lousy title). According to Fandango and the NYTimes blog (http://mediadecoder.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/05/28/bad-box-office-omens-for-prince-of-persia/), no one is buying advance tickets to PofP.


Fandango, the dominant online ticketing service, on Thursday said that “Prince of Persia” has comprised just 1 percent of advance ticket sales in recent days. “Sex and the City 2,” the other major release for Memorial Day, has comprised over 80 percent of sales.


As for Sex 2, the reviews are brutally bad. I mean it is one of the worst reviewed big-budget films of the year. Rotten tomatoes has it at 14% right now. Metacritic has it at a woefully bad 27. By comparison, the only wide theatrical releases in the past 3 months to garner lower scores are The Bounty Hunter with a 22 and Furry Vengeance with a 23.

So, even if a lot of women flock to see Sex 2 opening weekend, expect word of mouth to be horrible and this film will just die at the boxoffice in coming weeks. Women are a lot more quality conscious moveigoers than men which could make Sex 2's boxoffice fate even worse than other poorly done sequels.

--Jason "ironically, Prince of Persia is getting fairly decent reviews" Evans

[theAlaskanBear]

--Jason "ironically, Prince of Persia is getting fairly decent reviews" Evans

Well, over the last two days, I have seen two movies in theaters due to intense boredom and some extra disposable income.

Friday I saw Prince of Persia with the "brahs" ;) and I was pleasantly surprised. I can't stand Jake Gyllenhaal, but he didn't annoy me too much in this movie. It had some good swordplay/fight scenes, and had a video-game feel to it. The plot was predictable (and I havent even played the video games) but it was an entertaining enough movie! For some reason it kind of reminded me of the original mummy movie, without the terrible acting of Brendan Fraiser. I will probably watch it again on video.

The directors had a good touch...they didnt try to make it too serious. the opening scene is like a modern remake of the opener for aladdin...and there was one shot in the film that was an homage to Assassin's Creed, if you have ever played that game.**end**

Yesterday I saw Robin Hood, and I thought it was good not even close to great. The acting was good. You can really tell the difference in casting between movies like Prince of Persia where the goal is sexy main characters, and stereotype/appearance casting and then Robin Hood, where all the actors look and feel like real people. The plot and storyline was really quite brilliant. I can't imagine a more original and engrossing retelling of Robin Hood. But it was poorly executed in the end.

My big problem was that maybe 2/3rds through the movie and the plot falls apart. Its like the director thought, "oh crap, the plot is moving to slowly, we need more hollywood!" basically from the part where Crowe learns about his past (the ridiculous father/magna carta thing) and the addresses the Barons...it devolves into sloppy hollywood. The last battle scene was fairly atrocious.

[JasonEvans]

It was a really bad weekend at the movies -- one of the worst memorial days in a decade for ticket sales.

Shrek 4 won the weekend with $43.3 million bringing its haul to $133 million after 2 weekends. It still seems to be well on course to top $220 million, though well off course to reach the $300 million that many in Hollywood had expected.

Sex and the City 2 was not a flop, but came close. It made $32.1 million for the weekend plus another 13 million from its Thursday opening for a total so far of $46.3 million. If it reaches $150 million, I will be shocked. It will not get into our top 5 of summer. 90% of the first weekend audience was female. The first Sex and the City film was bringing in audiences where about 1 out of every 5 people were male. It will hurt this one that fewer guys are willing to see it.

Price of Persia made $30.1 million and is similarly out of the running for the top 5 of the summer.

--Jason "next weekend is mostly less ambitious comedies - could Get Him to The Greek be this summer's Hangover or Wedding Crashers?" Evans

[MisterRoddy]

It was a really bad weekend at the movies -- one of the worst memorial days in a decade for ticket sales.

Shrek 4 won the weekend with $43.3 million bringing its haul to $133 million after 2 weekends. It still seems to be well on course to top $220 million, though well off course to reach the $300 million that many in Hollywood had expected.

Sex and the City 2 was not a flop, but came close. It made $32.1 million for the weekend plus another 13 million from its Thursday opening for a total so far of $46.3 million. If it reaches $150 million, I will be shocked. It will not get into our top 5 of summer. 90% of the first weekend audience was female. The first Sex and the City film was bringing in audiences where about 1 out of every 5 people were male. It will hurt this one that fewer guys are willing to see it.

Price of Persia made $30.1 million and is similarly out of the running for the top 5 of the summer.

--Jason "next weekend is mostly less ambitious comedies - could Get Him to The Greek be this summer's Hangover or Wedding Crashers?" Evans

I certainly hope so, I'm always in the mood for a breakout comedy.

[theAlaskanBear]

I certainly hope so, I'm always in the mood for a breakout comedy.

I think that Despicable Me has the potential for a surprisingly good showing. Particularly because its kids/animated competitors are weak.

Also, my friend told me to watch some Avatar: The Last Airbender, because we are both into martial arts...and I have to say, I was VERY impressed with the cartoon series. I watched the WHOLE thing this weekend, and it's three-season trilogy. I look forward to M N Shamalan butchering the movie...

[JasonEvans]

I look forward to M N Shamalan butchering the movie...

Oh man, I hope not. It is a cool story if executed properly.

Night has been a disaster in his recent films. I mean, I thought Lady in the Water was bad... until I saw The Happening. If I were to rank all his films, the list would likely be in order of their release:

Sixth Sense (great), Unbreakable (very good), Signs (good), The Village (ok), Lady in Water (bad), Happening (awful).

That does not bode well for Avatar... although it is hard to imagine anything being worse than The Happening, so perhaps he is reversing the trend.

--Jason "my kids loved Avatar and are eager for the film" Evans

[brevity]

--Jason "next weekend is mostly less ambitious comedies - could Get Him to The Greek be this summer's Hangover or Wedding Crashers?" Evans

Don't get your hopes up. Try as Hollywood might, Jonah Hill is not a star, and he never will be. He's the poor man's Seth Rogen, and even the real Seth Rogen isn't that much of a summer draw. I'm undecided on Russell Brand, but I don't think reviving his character from Forgetting Sarah Marshall is the key to a successful breakout franchise. I see it as this year's Funny People, without the silly award aspirations.

The real drama next weekend is whether Shrek can coast on the "Let's go see it, nothing new looks interesting" ticket money that propelled its Memorial Day win. Which would be good news for those of us who picked it. I don't see the hodgepodge of June 4 releases -- Greek, Marmaduke, Killers, Splice -- doing much. Only Marmaduke and Splice break the top 5 for the weekend.

I've already reached the point where I'm more interested in seeing my predictions from this thread succeed, and less interested in seeing any of the movies that come out this summer. Have you?

[JasonEvans]

I've already reached the point where I'm more interested in seeing my predictions from this thread succeed, and less interested in seeing any of the movies that come out this summer. Have you?

Yeah, but that's partly because I am soooo jazzed for Inception to be great and rescue us from what has been, so far, a very blaah summer.

I agree with you on Greek, with the one caveat that there is NOTHING out right now for young males and they are a huge segment of the moviegoing audience. If Greek is the right mix of raunchy and funny (like Hangover and Crashers) and it develops a bit of a cult following among teen-20s males, it could be very big.

It is also worth noting that there is very little with potential to be great out right now. Everyone who wants to see Iron Man 2 has seen it. We've seen a succession of disappointing flicks the past few weeks and the next couple weeks don't look very strong either. There is a void here and something with some quality may be able to fill it and make beaucoup bucks.

--Jason "Greek looks funny in the trailers/commericals, that is step one" Evans

[bjornolf]

I think that Despicable Me has the potential for a surprisingly good showing. Particularly because its kids/animated competitors are weak.

Also, my friend told me to watch some Avatar: The Last Airbender, because we are both into martial arts...and I have to say, I was VERY impressed with the cartoon series. I watched the WHOLE thing this weekend, and it's three-season trilogy. I look forward to M N Shamalan butchering the movie...

I watched it on the recommendation of my brother...and I LOVED it. What a great cartoon! One of my top five all time favorite cartoon series. I ran out of episodes on Nicktoons and ended up watching a bunch of the last season online. I was SO impressed. It was VERY well done, though I was sad that they had to replace the voice actor for General Iroh halfway through when the great actor, Mako, passed away.

I loved the interpretation of the different martial arts styles into the magic "bending" of the elements. I also loved how the different tribes represented some of the different cultures and societies (earth=Chinese, fire=Japanese, air=Tibet/Nepalese, water=Inuit). I found the entire series fascinating. What an amazing world they created in that series, and the character development was very impressive. It's not only one of my favorite cartoon series, it might be one of my favorite television series period. It IS aimed at the development level of tweens and early teens, but it has something for everyone, and the acting and directing is impressive. If you're not the kind of person that appreciates the medium of cartoons, you probably won't like it, but I can't think of too many cartoon fans above the age of 10 that wouldn't love it.

I can't see how the live action movie doesn't butcher it, especially if they try to pack the whole thing into one movie. You'd need at least 7 or 8 movies to really do it justice.

[theAlaskanBear]

I watched it on the recommendation of my brother...and I LOVED it. What a great cartoon! One of my top five all time favorite cartoon series. I ran out of episodes on Nicktoons and ended up watching a bunch of the last season online. I was SO impressed. It was VERY well done, though I was sad that they had to replace the voice actor for General Iroh halfway through when the great actor, Mako, passed away.

I loved the interpretation of the different martial arts styles into the magic "bending" of the elements. I also loved how the different tribes represented some of the different cultures and societies (earth=Chinese, fire=Japanese, air=Tibet/Nepalese, water=Inuit). I found the entire series fascinating. What an amazing world they created in that series, and the character development was very impressive. It's not only one of my favorite cartoon series, it might be one of my favorite television series period. It IS aimed at the development level of tweens and early teens, but it has something for everyone, and the acting and directing is impressive. If you're not the kind of person that appreciates the medium of cartoons, you probably won't like it, but I can't think of too many cartoon fans above the age of 10 that wouldn't love it.

I can't see how the live action movie doesn't butcher it, especially if they try to pack the whole thing into one movie. You'd need at least 7 or 8 movies to really do it justice.

Someone said it is supposed to be a trilogy, which makes sense because thats the way the cartoon series function -- each season is one book.

The different styles between the benders is really quite interesting. Essentially, each has its own style based on a real martial art. Fire is Northern Kung Fu, Water is Tai Chi, Earth is Hung Gar, and Air is bagua/pakua I think.

It teaches you a lot about eastern philosophy, qi and chakras, etc.

[brevity]

I don't see the hodgepodge of June 4 releases -- Greek, Marmaduke, Killers, Splice -- doing much. Only Marmaduke and Splice break the top 5 for the weekend.

I hope I'm better at picking winners than I am at picking losers. It was the other two new releases that made this weekend's top 5. (So Jason was right, but I think people flocked to see Diddy, not Jonah Hill or Russell Brand.)

Meanwhile, Shrek: We Can't Decide Upon a Title topped a plurality and is at $183 million so far. Even if it coasted its way to $225 million, that may be enough this summer. It's a lock for at least 6th place; now we can only wonder whether 3 or 4 films (aside from Iron Man 2) will pass it.

The big story is how Hollywood has utterly failed America; doom is in the air, and even the sure things will underperform, at least a little, as a result.

[theAlaskanBear]

I hope I'm better at picking winners than I am at picking losers. It was the other two new releases that made this weekend's top 5. (So Jason was right, but I think people flocked to see Diddy, not Jonah Hill or Russell Brand.)

Meanwhile, Shrek: We Can't Decide Upon a Title topped a plurality and is at $183 million so far. Even if it coasted its way to $225 million, that may be enough this summer. It's a lock for at least 6th place; now we can only wonder whether 3 or 4 films (aside from Iron Man 2) will pass it.

The big story is how Hollywood has utterly failed America; doom is in the air, and even the sure things will underperform, at least a little, as a result.

No surprise there. Hollywood has become so inundated by marketing types and the business side of movies that most new movies are simply marketing formulas to make money.

If the big movie studios spent as much time ensuring we have good, compelling movies as they do worrying about box office take...they wouldn't have to worry about box office take!

[JasonEvans]

No surprise there. Hollywood has become so inundated by marketing types and the business side of movies that most new movies are simply marketing formulas to make money.

If the big movie studios spent as much time ensuring we have good, compelling movies as they do worrying about box office take...they wouldn't have to worry about box office take!

If Hollywood is following marketing formulas, those formulas are proving to be a dismal disaster so far this summer.

When everyone agrees that Shrek 4 is a boxoffice disappointment but it continues to lead the boxoffice in its 3rd week of release, that is a real problem.

This past weekend was a mess.

Despite decent-good reviews, Get Him To The Greek could only pull in $17.4 million. Splice, which got very strong reviews for a creature-horror flick did a woeful $7.4 million. The Killers, which was so dreadful the studio did not even screen it for critics, made $16.1 million. And Marmaduke, with a somewhat established frachise name behind it, could only do $11.3 million.

The Killers, which cost $75 million to make, will be a big money loser for Lion's Gate. At least the rest of the new films this week were fairly cheap to make (Greek - $40 mill, Splice - $30 mill, Marmaduke - $50 mill).

This coming weekend could be interesting. Karate Kid and The A-Team are established names/franchises, though they have both been in mothballs for over a decade. Still, they each forecast to be $100 mill+ boxoffice films. I doubt either will be able to make the Top 5 of summer, but they should be in the $30 million range for the weekend and easily knock Shrek 4 out of first place. We've been starved for a good action flick since Iron Man 2 came out a month ago so there may be some pent-up action demand to help A-Team. Similarly, Karate Kid (with a PG rating) could benefit from there being nothing on the market for families with kids who have seen Shrek or who do not want to see Shrek.

Anyway, here are the current standings in our quest for the top 5 of summer:


Iron Man 2 - $291.2 mill
Shrek 4 - $183.0 mill
Robin Hood - $94.2 mill
Sex and City 2 - $73.4 mill
Prince of Persia - $59.4 mill


--Jason "current standings are meaningless until mid-July, at least, but still fun" Evans

[NashvilleDevil]

This coming weekend could be interesting. Karate Kid and The A-Team are established names/franchises, though they have both been in mothballs for over a decade. Still, they each forecast to be $100 mill+ boxoffice films. I doubt either will be able to make the Top 5 of summer, but they should be in the $30 million range for the weekend and easily knock Shrek 4 out of first place. We've been starved for a good action flick since Iron Man 2 came out a month ago so there may be some pent-up action demand to help A-Team. Similarly, Karate Kid (with a PG rating) could benefit from there being nothing on the market for families with kids who have seen Shrek or who do not want to see Shrek.



Jason are you going to see an early screen of The A-Team? I was a huge fan of the TV show and will probably see it even if it gets tepid reviews.

[JasonEvans]

Jason are you going to see an early screen of The A-Team? I was a huge fan of the TV show and will probably see it even if it gets tepid reviews.

Not sure. Busy week. I may make it.

-Jason

[bjornolf]

No surprise there. Hollywood has become so inundated by marketing types and the business side of movies that most new movies are simply marketing formulas to make money.

If the big movie studios spent as much time ensuring we have good, compelling movies as they do worrying about box office take...they wouldn't have to worry about box office take!

One of the radio shows I was listening to yesterday afternoon was railing about the decline of movies, and how they've started making almost every movie geared towards woman and/or children. They pointed out all the Spider-man movies as an example. They were saying the only movies this summer geared straight to men are "The Expendables" and... shoot, now I can't think of the other one. Their point was that the movie industry has realized that while men still make money, it's the women and children that basically decide how said money is spent. Anyway, interesting theory.

My wife is very interested in A-Team, Despicable Me, the new Twilight one, Knight and Day, and Killers (which from the previews, the last two look like the same movie with different actors), but we'll wait for the DVDs cause it's so expensive to go to the movies these days that we can buy the DVD for less than we can go to the movie. We'll probably also buy the last Shrek on DVD for the kids.

The only one we might go see in the theater is Toy Story 3, for the kids. We'll probably also go see the Harry Potter when it comes out. When we were dating and first married, we went to a couple of movies a month. Now we have kids and it's just too darn expensive. Even if we got a baby sitter, my wife just isn't interested in blowing $40 to eat bad food and sit for two hours to watch a movie. If we get free time away from the kids, she wants to spend it on something she'd consider more "productive", like going out to dinner together where we can talk, or going for a walk. Me, I love movies. I guess this just proves the point of the guys on the radio yesterday. ;)

[Highlander]

http://www.eonline.com/uberblog/b185651_karate_kid_chops_a-team.html?cmpid=rss-000000-rssfeed-365-topstories&utm_source=eonline&utm_medium=rssfeeds&utm_campaign=rss_topstories

$57 Mil not a bad opening for a remake. I would expect Toy Story 2 to steal most of its thunder in a few weeks, but it should have no problems clearing $150M and could sneak its way into the #5 spot.

Also, "The A-Team" flopped. Big Time.

[JasonEvans]

http://www.eonline.com/uberblog/b185651_karate_kid_chops_a-team.html?cmpid=rss-000000-rssfeed-365-topstories&utm_source=eonline&utm_medium=rssfeeds&utm_campaign=rss_topstories

$57 Mil not a bad opening for a remake. I would expect Toy Story 2 to steal most of its thunder in a few weeks, but it should have no problems clearing $150M and could sneak its way into the #5 spot.

Also, "The A-Team" flopped. Big Time.

As usual, something comes out fo the dark to be a strong contender. Karate Kid was not even on our list of films to vote for, but a $56 million opening is not to be ignored.

Unless the film has poor legs/word of mouth (Karate Kid got fairly good reviews, so that seems unlikely), a $56 million opening should lead to somewhere more than $160 million in total boxoffice. If Karate Kid has good legs, it will be a real contender for the top 5.

It will be interesting to see how it holds up against the Toy Story 3 juggernaut this coming weekend. It could be helped if Toy Story 3 sells out a folks spill over into the other quality kid-friendly film, Karate Kid.

The A Team... $26 million... wow, what a disappointment considering the reviews were not that bad. I guess the franchise was too old to still have appeal to the masses. I also think there was a terrible bit of marketing in the trailers and commercials where they showed the parachuting tank shooting a plane out of the sky -- that clip highlighted a total lack of reality in the film. Look, I know films are not real, but I think a lot of people look for some semblance of honesty and reality in them. To me, that tank-with-parachute-shoots-plane scene killed any interest I had in the flick.

--Jason "I'll update the 'standings' later today, when final numbers are in" Evans

[theAlaskanBear]

As usual, something comes out fo the dark to be a strong contender. Karate Kid was not even on our list of films to vote for, but a $56 million opening is not to be ignored.

Unless the film has poor legs/word of mouth (Karate Kid got fairly good reviews, so that seems unlikely), a $56 million opening should lead to somewhere more than $160 million in total boxoffice. If Karate Kid has good legs, it will be a real contender for the top 5.

It will be interesting to see how it holds up against the Toy Story 3 juggernaut this coming weekend. It could be helped if Toy Story 3 sells out a folks spill over into the other quality kid-friendly film, Karate Kid.

The A Team... $26 million... wow, what a disappointment considering the reviews were not that bad. I guess the franchise was too old to still have appeal to the masses. I also think there was a terrible bit of marketing in the trailers and commercials where they showed the parachuting tank shooting a plane out of the sky -- that clip highlighted a total lack of reality in the film. Look, I know films are not real, but I think a lot of people look for some semblance of honesty and reality in them. To me, that tank-with-parachute-shoots-plane scene killed any interest I had in the flick.

--Jason "I'll update the 'standings' later today, when final numbers are in" Evans

The reviews are getting pretty bad for the A-team...did you read the Ebert? Also, you could see the stupidity of this movie a mile a way...partially due to the trailer you mentioned, and partially to the casting of that dbag from the Hangover.

Also...I am planning on seeing The Kung Fu Kid (set in China, with a Chinese man, Jackie Chan, teaching Kung Fu...and as it will be titled in China).

[aimo]

Haven't seen The A-Team, but as for the unrealistic parts . . . isn't that kind of the point? The show was ALWAYS like that. Crazy explosions, huge shoot-em-ups, and NO ONE got hurt. Trucks would flip over several times in mid-air, come crashing down, yet everyone crawled out OK, a little woozy and therefore easier to tie-up and handcuff for the authorities.

So, outrageous, unbelievable scenes is EXACTLY what I would expect for this flick.

[bjornolf]

I haven't seen the US box office yet, but Yahoo is reporting that Toy Story 3 made a record $153.8M worldwide in its opening weekend. Wow! Guess it's gonna make the top 5. ;)

[JasonEvans]

I haven't seen the US box office yet, but Yahoo is reporting that Toy Story 3 made a record $153.8M worldwide in its opening weekend. Wow! Guess it's gonna make the top 5. ;)

What matters for us is the $109 million it made in the US. A stellar opening and pretty much what most folks had predicted. It is almost impossible to see this flick making less than $300 million after an opening like that (especially a June opening, as there is more mid-week money to be made in June and July versus May and August when kids are in school).

So, as 68.63% of us predicted (what were the other 31.57% thinking??!?!?), Toy Story 3 is a mortal lock to make the top 5.

Also worth noting, Karate Kid was #2 at the boxoffice with $29 million bringing its total to $106 million. It still appears to be a longshot to make the top 5. I am having trouble seeing it getting to $200 million. It did not hold up as well as some had hoped, dropping 48% from its opening weekend. I still see it doing around $175 million in total and it will be a top 5 contender, but I think it is going to come up short. The 2 hour 20 minute running time may be hurting it a bit.

--Jason "I will update the actual standings with dollar amounts once we know the final figures a bit later today" Evans

[bjornolf]

According to IMDB, Shrek is just over $210M. Does it have a shot at the top 5, or do you have to get to $250M to have any chance at all?

[JasonEvans]

According to IMDB, Shrek is just over $210M. Does it have a shot at the top 5, or do you have to get to $250M to have any chance at all?

That is an old total. The latest numbers have it at $222.9 million. Unless a couple films come out of nowhere to be huge hits, it is going to be in the top 5, for sure. It should end up a little above $240 million.

-Jason "Iron Man, Toy Story, and Shrek are all locks" Evans

[bjornolf]

That is an old total. The latest numbers have it at $222.9 million. Unless a couple films come out of nowhere to be huge hits, it is going to be in the top 5, for sure. It should end up a little above $240 million.

-Jason "Iron Man, Toy Story, and Shrek are all locks" Evans

That would make me 3/3. I can live with that. ;) I'm gonna lose it on Avatar, though. I can just feel it.

[JasonEvans]

The final weekend numbers are now in.

Toy Story 3 did even better than anticipated on Sunday and earned 110.3 million for the weekend. Karate Kid also did better than originally thought making $29.9 million.

So, the summer standings right now are:


Iron Man 2 - $304.2 million
Shrek 4 - $223.0 million
Toy Story 3 - $110.3 million
Karate Kid - $107.1 million
Robin Hood - $102.0 million
Sex and City 2 - $90.1 million
Prince of Persia - $80.8 million


Again, the top 3 films on that list are mortal locks to be in the Top 5. Karate Kid is the only other one that has a chance and it remains a big longshot.

--Jason "a lot of folks are 3 for 3... and will go 4-for-4 with Twilight... the key is film #5" Evans

[Duke Mom]

Something must be wrong with me - I haven't seen a single movie on this list. The last new movie I saw that I felt was worth the price of admission was the thriller, "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo." Playing in foreign film type theaters and definitely for grown ups, only. (and "Babies" which I mentioned earlier on the thread). Just not in a big hurry to see any of the others (wish I was).

[bjornolf]

My kids are getting more and more excited with every Despicable Me comercial they see. They're running around the house yelling "IT'S SO FLUFFY!" right now.

[NashvilleDevil]

The final weekend numbers are now in.

Toy Story 3 did even better than anticipated on Sunday and earned 110.3 million for the weekend. Karate Kid also did better than originally thought making $29.9 million.

So, the summer standings right now are:


Iron Man 2 - $304.2 million
Shrek 4 - $223.0 million
Toy Story 3 - $110.3 million
Karate Kid - $107.1 million
Robin Hood - $102.0 million
Sex and City 2 - $90.1 million
Prince of Persia - $80.8 million


Again, the top 3 films on that list are mortal locks to be in the Top 5. Karate Kid is the only other one that has a chance and it remains a big longshot.

--Jason "a lot of folks are 3 for 3... and will go 4-for-4 with Twilight... the key is film #5" Evans

I really love the trailers for Inception but I wonder if the material will be to dense for people to follow. With that being said if the movie is good I am sure there will be repeat viewings.

[JBDuke]

"Toy Story 3" took in another $59.3M over the weekend, to stand at a total of $227M after just 10 days of release.

[JasonEvans]

As JB noted, Toy Story 3 retained the #1 spot-- hardly a surprise. It will likely be the biggest movie of the summer as I expect it to have loooong legs (folks will go see this multiple times). It will pass Shrek 4 as the #2 movie of the summer today and should pass Iron Man 2 in a couple weeks.

Grown Ups did $40 million, which is a little more than I expected considering it got horrible reviews. Then again, an Adam Sandler comedy is pretty much guaranteed to bring in around $40 million in its opening weekend, regardless of the quality of the film. I don't expect this film to hold up very well over the next few weeks and a $40 mill start is not big enough to get it anywhere close to $200 million so it is not a top 5 contender.

I was a bit surprised that Knight & Day did not do better. It made $20 million over the weekend for a total of $27 million so far (it opened on Wednesday). I saw this flick at a screening and it was fairly good. It is nothing special, but is a decent diversion and not a bad date flick. The chemistry between the two stars is lacking, but the movie has a good time with its spy chase stuff. Anyway, this is a really bad sign for Tom Cruise's faded star. He is simply not a big deal at the Boxoffice any longer and he cannot be counted upon to make a film successful. He's gonna have trouble landing big paychecks to star in films going forward until he has another big success.

Karate Kid came in 4th at the boxoffice and made $15 million, about half of what it did last weekend. It is doing fine, but now appears to have faded enough to take it out of the running for the top 5 of summer. I still say it will top off in the $160-$175 million range.

Anyway, little changed in the "Top 5" standings --

Iron Man 2 - $306 mill
Shrek 4 - $229 mill
Toy Story 3 - $226 mill
Karate Kid - $135 mill
Robin Hood - $103 mill
Sex and City 2 - $93 mill
Prince of Persia - $86 mill


We get a Top 5 contender this week as The Last Airbender opens on Thursday. It is a kid-oriented flick so I am not sure why the commercials continue to tout Shyamalan's name as director (he has no track record in the kid arena and his past few flicks have sucked). I have not heard any meaningful buzz or reviews yet, but it looks like it should be at least decent.

Then, this weekend we get another film that I consider a top 5 lock when Twilight: Eclipse opens. The reviews for Eclipse have been ok so far, better than the first two which were largely panned by critics. Eclipse supposedly has a lot more action than the previous Twilight flicks, which should help it with the guys (it is an automatic success with women). It will be a shock if Eclipse does not do $100 million+ for the opening weekend.

--Jason "the competition is really heating up over the next few weeks!" Evans

[mph]

Eclipse made $30 million (http://marquee.blogs.cnn.com/2010/06/30/eclipse-breaks-record-with-midnight-showings/?hpt=T2) between midnight and 3am this morning. $100 million for the weekend should be a breeze.

[JasonEvans]

Eclipse made $30 million (http://marquee.blogs.cnn.com/2010/06/30/eclipse-breaks-record-with-midnight-showings/?hpt=T2) between midnight and 3am this morning. $100 million for the weekend should be a breeze.

Yup, it was a record amount for midnight showings -- darn impressive. A $140+ million opening would have been a decent possibility if they had not siphoned off demand with the mid-week showings. It is a mortal lock for the top 5. I dunno what the 33% of us who did not vote for it were thinking?

--Jason "it will be interesting to see if Airbender can get any traction in Twilight's wake-- I predict about $45-50 million for Airbender" Evans

[Udaman]

Well, I'm not going 5 for 5. I didn't pick Twilight, and did pick The Last Airbender.

Twilight will make it - though it's a really bad movie. When the reviewers all say pretty much, "well, it isn't as bad as the other two movies" that's saying something. It's at 50% on Rotten Tomatoes, which is pretty bad. I don't think it will do more than the last one, and I think it will drop off big time after this first week. Basically it's Sex in the City for girls between 11-17 years old, and they ALL go to see it. And I mean ALL.

Meanwhile, the Last Airbender is getting obliterated by the critics (and I mean obliterated). It's at 9% on Rotten Tomatoes. Many are saying that this is the final nail in the coffin for M.Knight. There is no way this film makes the top 5.

But...at least I didn't pick Robin Hood, and I have Despicable Me, which I think will be a Top 5 pick, so I'm looking (hopefully) at going 4 for 5.

[theAlaskanBear]

Well, I'm not going 5 for 5. I didn't pick Twilight, and did pick The Last Airbender.

Twilight will make it - though it's a really bad movie. When the reviewers all say pretty much, "well, it isn't as bad as the other two movies" that's saying something. It's at 50% on Rotten Tomatoes, which is pretty bad. I don't think it will do more than the last one, and I think it will drop off big time after this first week. Basically it's Sex in the City for girls between 11-17 years old, and they ALL go to see it. And I mean ALL.

Meanwhile, the Last Airbender is getting obliterated by the critics (and I mean obliterated). It's at 9% on Rotten Tomatoes. Many are saying that this is the final nail in the coffin for M.Knight. There is no way this film makes the top 5.

But...at least I didn't pick Robin Hood, and I have Despicable Me, which I think will be a Top 5 pick, so I'm looking (hopefully) at going 4 for 5.

Despicable Me will do VERY VERY well. All of my college-aged friends want to see this movie.

[cato]

But...at least I didn't pick Robin Hood, and I have Despicable Me, which I think will be a Top 5 pick, so I'm looking (hopefully) at going 4 for 5.

I'm not sure you should be patting yourself on the back for avoiding Robin Hood when you picked an M. Night movie for top 5.

[cato]

Despicable Me will do VERY VERY well. All of my college-aged friends want to see this movie.

It is the only summer movie that I actually want to see, although not until it comes out on DVD.

[JasonEvans]

After a ridiculous $68 million dollar opening on Wednesday, Eclipse did another $24 million on Thursday putting it at 92 million before it even gets to the weekend. Crazy numbers. It will have a huge dropoff because all the demand is up front on this flick, but it is gonna be over $150 million in total boxoffice by the time the weekend is done. It remains a Top 5 lock.

Airbender did a fairly respectable $16.4 million on Thursday. That's a good figure. But, the reviews are woefully bad, which may mean there will be a word of mouth backlash that stops if from building any momentum. I will be surprised if it makes more than $50 or $60 million for the July 4th weekend.

--Jason "I think the 5th of the Top 5 is going to come down to Despicable Me vs. Inception" Evans

[darthur]

Anyone in the running still for 5/5?

Looks like I will get a 4/5 yet again. Stupid Robin Hood.

[JasonEvans]

Anyone in the running still for 5/5?

Looks like I will get a 4/5 yet again. Stupid Robin Hood.

I think there are several people in it. I am 4-for-4 (assuming Shrek holds on and remains one of the top 5). I have Inception as the 5th film.

There could be a very interesting race between Shrek and another film for the 5th spot. Lets say that Inception and Despicable Me are both big hits (which seems very likely). It is not at all impossible to see them both getting into the mid 200s in boxoffice (perhaps higher). In that case, they could BOTH pass Shrek which would almost certainly make it impossible for anyone in our poll to go 5-for-5.

Shrek currently stands at $321 million. It is sorta stalled at this point and won't go much higher. It made 3 million last weekend and probably won't quite make it to $240 million. It is not impossible to imagine it coming in 6th place with a figure like $240 million.

--Jason "I don't think there are any real contenders left other than Inception and Despicable" Evans

[Udaman]

Sigh. Eclipse is basically tanking right now. It's at $175M domestic, and I predict it does not top $300M, which means that pretty much everything will be based on the first 4 days of release. But it's still pretty much a lock for the top 5 unless something odd happens between now and the end of August.

Toy Story actually did better on a per screen average yesterday, which I guess isn't all that surprising.

By the way, Eclipse just looks so bad. I admit I haven't seen or read any of it...but compared to Harry Potter it just looks so cheesy, predictable and just plain banal. Am I missing something here?

[camion]

By the way, Eclipse just looks so bad. I admit I haven't seen or read any of it...but compared to Harry Potter it just looks so cheesy, predictable and just plain banal. Am I missing something here?

You're not a thirteen year old girl are you?

[JasonEvans]

Toy Story actually did better on a per screen average yesterday, which I guess isn't all that surprising.


Where did you see that? I saw the Monday per screen averages as $4209 for Eclipse and $3172 for Toy Story 3. While Eclipse did have slightly a worse than expected weekend, it has still been ahead of Toy Story in daily BoxOffice and per screen average every day of its release according to the figures I have seen.

This is hardly surprising considering Eclipse is brand new and Toy Story is almost 3 weeks old.

I agree that Eclipse seems to have faded so severely that a $300 million total may be out of reach. I still see it comfortably getting to $250 million though and it clearly remains all but a lock for the top 5 of summer. We need to see how it holds up next weekend, but it would take a monumental collapse for it to not make the top 5.

It is worth noting that Eclipse bounced back from a weak Sunday July 4th to do a fairly impressive $18.8 million in boxoffice on Monday July 5th (which was a holiday day). It currently stands at $176 million and will easily pass the $200 million mark by the end of next weekend.

-Jason "I'll do the latest standings in just a minute" evans

[JasonEvans]

Top 5 of summer standings (as of July 5th, 2010)


Iron Man 2 - $308.5 million
Toy Story 3 - $301.8 million
Shrek Forever - $232.6 million
Twilight: Eclipse - $176.2 million
Karate Kid - $154.5 million
Robin Hood - $104.0 million


Shrek is starting to worry me. It was taken out of most of its theaters over the weekend to make way for Eclipse and Airbender and its boxoffice total tanked. It made less than a million dollars and now appears to be all but done in terms of its total take. It won't get to $235 million. I am starting to think it could finish 6th if Despicable and Inception are both big.

By the way, the first Inception reviews are rolling in and they are universally wonderful. Everyone is saying this is one of the best sci-fi films in years. I dunno what the rest of you were thinking but I sure am glad I voted for it!!

--Jason "Despicable also getting good reviews... but not raves" Evans

[Reisen]

Looked like a good opening by Despicable Me. Anyone see it?

Also, I heard Toy Story 3 kept up its momentum.

Finally, I'm actually hearing decent things about "Predators". It is what it is (throwback to a campy 80's action flick), but I might actually see it on Blu-Ray.

[JasonEvans]

Despicable me had a nice weekend, $60.1 million. But it was not big enough to ensure a $200 million total boxoffice take. Lets look at some history--

There have been 30 films in history to have opened between $55 million and $65 million. Of those 30, exactly half (15) made it to the $200 million mark. There are several films in this area that appear very similar to Despicable Me. Madgascar II opened to $63 mill and ended up making $180 mill. WALL-E also opened at $63 mill but it ended up making $223 mill. Kung Fu Panda opened to $60 mill and made $215 mill. Monsters vs. Aliens opened with $59 mill and finished with $198 mill.

I think Despicable will come very close to $200, and may even pass it, but I don't see it topping $210 or $220, and I expect the #5 film of the summer will be in the $225+ mill range.

By the way, I saw Despicable Me and thought it was fairly good. Not fabulous, but not bad. Certainly not in a league with Toy Story 3, but still a decent family film. No way I would pay 3D prices for it though.

Other news from the weekend--

Twilight held up fairly well with $33.4 million and now stands at $237 mill total. It is a lock for the top 5.

Airbender fell sharply to $17.1 mill and its total is only at $100.1 mill. It won't make the top 5.

This week brings Inception, which many expect to be a huge hit. The reviews have been very good so far (some are saying it is the best sci-fi flick in years) and expectations are that it will make over $200 million. We'll see!

--Jason "standings coming up in moments" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Top 5 of summer standings (as of July 5th, 2010)


Iron Man 2 - $308.5 million
Toy Story 3 - $301.8 million
Shrek Forever - $232.6 million
Twilight: Eclipse - $176.2 million
Karate Kid - $154.5 million
Robin Hood - $104.0 million


And here are the standings through Sunday, July 11.


Toy Story 3 - $340.2 million
Iron Man 2 - $309.2 million
Twilight: Eclipse - $237.0 million
Shrek Forever - $233.7 million
Karate Kid - $164.6 million
Grown Ups - $111.3 million
Robin Hood - $104.5 million
Airbender - 100.2 million


--Jason "I may be seeing Inception tonight at a screening -- hope I can make it!" Evans`

[bird]

And here are the standings through Sunday, July 11.


Toy Story 3 - $340.2 million
Iron Man 2 - $309.2 million
Twilight: Eclipse - $237.0 million
Shrek Forever - $233.7 million
Karate Kid - $164.6 million
Grown Ups - $111.3 million
Robin Hood - $104.5 million
Airbender - 100.2 million


--Jason "I may be seeing Inception tonight at a screening -- hope I can make it!" Evans`

Of the top eight, is Grown Ups the only obviously-non-purely-derivative work of the lot?

I surely liked Toy Story 3, and prior discussions here convinced me that genre pieces can be honorable, but I have to wonder whether Hollywood is running out of gas.

[Duvall]

Of the top eight, is Grown Ups the only obviously-non-purely-derivative work of the lot?

I surely liked Toy Story 3, and prior discussions here convinced me that genre pieces can be honorable, but I have to wonder whether Hollywood is running out of gas.

I don't think it's so much that Hollywood is running out of ideas - television is going through a golden age right now. I think the problem is that big summer movies are such big business that studios are reluctant to invest money in a concept that hasn't proven itself in some format. Hence the remakes.

Inception may give us a counterexample this week. Hopefully it will be good.

ETA: There's also a bit of irony in claiming a new version of Robin Hood as evidence of any kind of new trend. We've only been telling and revising the story of Robyn Hude for what, six hundred years? Seven?

[NashvilleDevil]

--Jason "I may be seeing Inception tonight at a screening -- hope I can make it!" Evans`

You will let us know? I am going to see the midnight showing on Thursday. Only movie I have been looking forward to seeing this summer.

[roywhite]

I don't think it's so much that Hollywood is running out of ideas - television is going through a golden age right now. I think the problem is that big summer movies are such big business that studios are reluctant to invest money in a concept that hasn't proven itself in some format. Hence the remakes.

Inception may give us a counterexample this week. Hopefully it will be good.

ETA: There's also a bit of irony in claiming a new version of Robin Hood as evidence of any kind of new trend. We've only been telling and revising the story of Robyn Hude for what, six hundred years? Seven?

So Pillars of the Earth (http://www.the-pillars-of-the-earth.tv/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=85&Itemid=118) shows up as a TV mini-series, instead of a movie, I guess.

I thought the Follett book was terrific, and it takes places 2 or 3 centuries before Robin Hood. So TV can now do a good job on such a project, but movies can't or won't?

[A-Tex Devil]

How did Predators do this weekend? I saw it on Saturday and it was surprisingly well done..... for a Predator movie. Loved the Laurence Fishburne character. Would have been better if Adrian Brodie wasn't trying to emulate Christian Bale's batman voice the whole time. Completely miscast there. They should have either made the character a bit more light hearted, or cast someone with a presence I could take seriously in that role. As usual, Walton Goggins stole the show as well.

[juise]

How did Predators do this weekend?

$24.8 million, apparently (http://www.rottentomatoes.com/movie/box_office.php).

[JasonEvans]

$24.8 million, apparently (http://www.rottentomatoes.com/movie/box_office.php).

I did not mention it in my write-up because it is not going to even make $100 million. It seems like a decent addition to the horror/sci-fi Predator series, but it is hardly going to be a significant player in the Top 5 of Summer race.

--Jason "I did see Inception... my full review should be up in less than 24 hours... I want to think on it a bit more" Evans

[JasonEvans]

As we wait for Inception's first figures, something interesting to chew upon...

BoxofficeMojo does an informal poll of its readers asking if they plan to see films and when they plan to see them. Amazingly, 68.9 percent say they plan to see Inception the opening weekend it comes out.

To put that in perspective, it is the 3rd highest "demand score" in the 6 years Mojo has been doing the poll. It trails only the 76.9% for The Dark Knight and 72% for Star Wars III: Revenge of the Sith. Impressive!

--Jason "Inception vs. Despicable vs. Shrek for spots #4 and #5 in the Top 5" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Just go the Friday numbers-- Inception made $21.5 million, a very solid number, but not spectacular. I think it will do about $60-65 million for the weekend, which is a little less than I had hoped. I think the film could have strong legs though, as word of mouth and repeat business both figure to be good. Heck, just read our threads on this board to see all the folks who talk about seeing it again.

Despicable Me did $56 million its opening weekend, and Inception should be ahead of that, though they may be in a close race for the Top 5. We'll see!

--Jason "c'mon Inception- I want to go 5-for-5!!!" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Well, I was right on target. The initial figures show Inception made $60.4 million its opening weekend. Again, I had hoped for more, but that is certainly a good start.

Despicable Me made $32.7 million, which is significantly better than I had expected, especially with the also-family-friendly Sorcerer's Apprentice opening. Despicable only dropped 42% from its opening weekend, which is a strong performance. It looks like Despicable and Inception are going to be in a fairly close battle for the #5 spot in the Top 5 of summer.

I'll update more tomorrow, when we have the final weekend figures. There is some talk that Inception's strong word-of-mouth may result in a stronger Sunday than initially expected.

--Jason "Sorcerer did $17.3 million... it cost $150 mill to make and could be a big money-loser for Disney" Evans

[JasonEvans]

I'll update more tomorrow, when we have the final weekend figures. There is some talk that Inception's strong word-of-mouth may result in a stronger Sunday than initially expected.

Uh-huh! Who is da' man when it comes to predictions?!?! ME! I am da' man!!

As I suspected, Inception did better than expected on Sunday. It pulled in about $2 million more in ticket sales than initially reported. That means about 10% more people saw it on Sunday than the studio thought. This is a sure sign of buzz and word of mouth inspiring people to go to the movies as quickly as possible to see this film.

So, here are the updated weekend figures for the two films that appear to be battling for 5th place in our Top 5 of summer--

Inception - 62.7 million
Despicable Me - 32.8 million

This puts Inception about 6 million ahead of Despicable's pace last weekend. It will obviously take another week or two to know if Inception is going to stay ahead or if it will fall behind over time.

It is too early in Inception's run for it to make the following list, but here is where things stand right now in our "standings" --


Toy Story 3 - $362.9 million
Iron Man 2 - $310 million
Twilight: Eclipse - $264.7 million
Shrek 4 - $234.3 million
Karate Kid - $169.2 million
Grown Ups - $129.1 million
Despicable Me - $118.4 million
Last Airbender - $115.1 million
Robin Hood - $104.8 million


--Jason "it will be interesting to see if Salt, which is getting decent buzz, will hurt Inception next weekend" Evans

[JasonEvans]

So-- now is a good time to ask...

Is there anyone else aside from me that is 4-for-4 (Toy Story 3, Shrek 4, Iron Man 2, Twilight 3) who also has either Despicable Me or Inception left alive as their 5th pick?

Anyone else have a shot at going 5-for-5?

-Jason

[JBDuke]

So-- now is a good time to ask...

Is there anyone else aside from me that is 4-for-4 (Toy Story 3, Shrek 4, Iron Man 2, Twilight 3) who also has either Despicable Me or Inception left alive as their 5th pick?

Anyone else have a shot at going 5-for-5?

-Jason

I don't know about going 5 for 5, but outside of the LTE, I'd bet real money that you're the first person to tally 6 consecutive posts in one thread... ;-)

[juise]

I don't know about going 5 for 5, but outside of the LTE, I'd bet real money that you're the first person to tally 6 consecutive posts in one thread... ;-)

I don't know. I think DevilHorse has gotten close or exceeded this a few times with his Hurley Horse Happenings threads, which I always appreciate. :)

[brevity]

So-- now is a good time to ask...

Is there anyone else aside from me that is 4-for-4 (Toy Story 3, Shrek 4, Iron Man 2, Twilight 3) who also has either Despicable Me or Inception left alive as their 5th pick?

Anyone else have a shot at going 5-for-5?

-Jason

Yep. Brian12215, PensDevil, and I (brevity) picked the same 5 films, going with Despicable Me. So we win if Despicable Me beats Inception, even if both beat Shrek.

[theAlaskanBear]

I think inception will have some legs, because a bunch of people I know are going to see it two times to try to figure things out.

[JasonEvans]

Ok, are we all agreed that Inception vs. Despicable Me is THE RACE when it comes to determining the final of the Top 5? Good.

So, with that in mind, I plan to look at how they are each doing in a day-to-day comparison (as this is the most relevant way to look at films released on different days.



Day of week Despicable Me total Inception total
Fri (day 1) $21.34 mil $21.3 m $21.78 m $21.7 m
Sat (day 2) $20.83 mil $42.1 m $21.79 m $43.5 m
Sun (day 3) $14.21 mil $56.3 m $19.21 m $62.7 m
Mon (day 4) $7.52 mil $63.9 m $10.22 m $73.0 m
Tue (day 5) $8.15 mil $72.0 m

You can see that the two films started out essentially neck-and-neck, but the very strong Sunday and Monday for Inception have pushed it out to a $9 million lead through 4 days of release. Still, Despicable Me had a strong 2nd weekend (days 8-10) that could be tough for Inception to keep up with. Also, family films typically have longer legs than adult flicks and Inception faces more new competition this week with the opening of Salt than Despicable Me does with Ramona and Beezus. I think Cats and Dogs II will present Despicable with some real competition in a couple weeks though.

Anyway, I will keep track of this going forward... if anyone but me cares ;)

--Jason "hey, Evans... you obsess much?" Evans

[cato]

Ok, are we all agreed that Inception vs. Despicable Me is THE RACE when it comes to determining the final of the Top 5? Good.

So, with that in mind, I plan to look at how they are each doing in a day-to-day comparison (as this is the most relevant way to look at films released on different days.



Day of week Despicable Me total Inception total
Fri (day 1) $21.34 mil $21.3 m $21.78 m $21.7 m
Sat (day 2) $20.83 mil $42.1 m $21.79 m $43.5 m
Sun (day 3) $14.21 mil $56.3 m $19.21 m $62.7 m
Mon (day 4) $7.52 mil $63.9 m $10.22 m $73.0 m
Tue (day 5) $8.15 mil $72.0 m

You can see that the two films started out essentially neck-and-neck, but the very strong Sunday and Monday for Inception have pushed it out to a $9 million lead through 4 days of release. Still, Despicable Me had a strong 2nd weekend (days 8-10) that could be tough for Inception to keep up with. Also, family films typically have longer legs than adult flicks and Inception faces more new competition this week with the opening of Salt than Despicable Me does with Ramona and Beezus. I think Cats and Dogs II will present Despicable with some real competition in a couple weeks though.

Anyway, I will keep track of this going forward... if anyone but me cares ;)

--Jason "hey, Evans... you obsess much?" Evans


What are the chances that they both push Shrek out of the top 5? Since my errant Robin Hood pick will keep me out of the running, my only rooting interest this year is to see the fresh movies knock off the stalest of the sequels.

[JasonEvans]

What are the chances that they both push Shrek out of the top 5? Since my errant Robin Hood pick will keep me out of the running, my only rooting interest this year is to see the fresh movies knock off the stalest of the sequels.

I wrote about this as a possibility a week or so ago, I think, but I am less confident of it now than I was then.

Shrek 4 sits at $234 million. While Inception and Despicable still have a looong way to go before they are done, it is hard to see them both getting above that figure. We are simply running out of time to get there. The summer movie season is getting close to wrapping up. By the time we hit early August, the public generally moves out of movie-attendance mode and kids start going back to school.

A typical weekend during May - July brings in between $130 and $160 million dollars in ticket sales -- sometimes a bit more but almost never less than $130 million.

But, a typical weekend in August is gonna bring in between $105 and $125 million. September, once school starts, drops into the $70-$90 million range.

My point in all this is that by the time we get to the 4th, 5th, 6th weekends of release for Despicable Me and Inception, we are going to be looking at much smaller numbers of people going to the movies than for a flick like Shrek that came out in May/June.

While most movies do the vast majority of their business in the first 3-4 weeks of release, I think the smaller audiences later in the release cycle for Despic and Incept will keep them from BOTH reaching $234+ million.

--Jason "Inception has a chance to have really long legs and beat $234 mil, though it is still too early to tell" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Day of week Despicable Me total Inception total
Fri (day 1) $21.34 mil $21.3 m $21.78 m $21.7 m
Sat (day 2) $20.83 mil $42.1 m $21.79 m $43.5 m
Sun (day 3) $14.21 mil $56.3 m $19.21 m $62.7 m
Mon (day 4) $7.52 mil $63.9 m $10.18 m $73.0 m
Tue (day 5) $8.15 mil $72.0 m $9.70 m $82.7 m
Wed (day 6) $7.15 mil $79.2 m
Thu (day 7) $6.39 mil $85.6 m

It is hard to deny at this point that we are seeing a trend over the past few days. Inception appears to be running somewhere around 20% ahead of what Despicable Me was doing over the same days of its release. Inception is now $10 million ahead of Despicable Me, which is a very tough gap to overcome, even with Despicable having a strong 2nd weekend.

If Inception has a similarly strong 2nd weekend, we could be just a week or so from calling the race and knowing what our Top 5 of Summer will be.

--Jason "feeling pretty good about my picks right now... ;) " Evans

[TampaDuke]

It is hard to deny at this point that we are seeing a trend over the past few days. Inception appears to be running somewhere around 20% ahead of what Despicable Me was doing over the same days of its release. Inception is now $10 million ahead of Despicable Me, which is a very tough gap to overcome, even with Despicable having a strong 2nd weekend.

If Inception has a similarly strong 2nd weekend, we could be just a week or so from calling the race and knowing what our Top 5 of Summer will be.

--Jason "feeling pretty good about my picks right now... ;) " Evans

Jason,

Is inception the kind of movie that needs to be seen in the theater? It sounds like my kind of movie but, due to a busy schedule, I was planning on just waiting for the DVD. If it's a must-see in theater, I'll make the time though.

[JasonEvans]

Jason,

Is inception the kind of movie that needs to be seen in the theater? It sounds like my kind of movie but, due to a busy schedule, I was planning on just waiting for the DVD. If it's a must-see in theater, I'll make the time though.

Yes, it must be seen in theaters and it is not even close. You must immerse yourself in the film, really pay attention to it, to have a prayer of understanding exactly what is going on. Being in a darkened theater where the only outside distraction is your bladder crying out to pee is the way to see this film.

What's more, the dreamscapes are wondrous to behold, and probably would not be nearly as interesting or compelling on a smaller TV screen.

--Jason "I have not seen it in IMAX, but friends who have say it is amazing!" Evans

[darthur]

Yes, it must be seen in theaters and it is not even close. You must immerse yourself in the film, really pay attention to it, to have a prayer of understanding exactly what is going on. Being in a darkened theater where the only outside distraction is your bladder crying out to pee is the way to see this film.

What's more, the dreamscapes are wondrous to behold, and probably would not be nearly as interesting or compelling on a smaller TV screen.

--Jason "I have not seen it in IMAX, but friends who have say it is amazing!" Evans

Careful in who you trust - he has a vested interest in getting more people to see this movie. :)

[TampaDuke]

Yes, it must be seen in theaters and it is not even close. You must immerse yourself in the film, really pay attention to it, to have a prayer of understanding exactly what is going on. Being in a darkened theater where the only outside distraction is your bladder crying out to pee is the way to see this film.

What's more, the dreamscapes are wondrous to behold, and probably would not be nearly as interesting or compelling on a smaller TV screen.

--Jason "I have not seen it in IMAX, but friends who have say it is amazing!" Evans

Thanks. Looks like I'll be making time for a movie in the next week or so.

[JasonEvans]

Thanks. Looks like I'll be making time for a movie in the next week or so.

If Inception beats Despicable by $10, I get all the credit!!

Ha!

--Jason "you'll enjoy it" Evans

[NashvilleDevil]

Jason I have been looking at Inception's box office numbers for the week and I have noticed that there has not been that significant a drop off from Monday (over 10 million) to Thursday (8.5 million). What do you think Inception will take this weekend? Is 40-50 million out of the question?

[JasonEvans]

Jason I have been looking at Inception's box office numbers for the week and I have noticed that there has not been that significant a drop off from Monday (over 10 million) to Thursday (8.5 million). What do you think Inception will take this weekend? Is 40-50 million out of the question?

Wow -- if it did $50 million, that would only be a decline of less than %20 from last weekend, which would be a stunning figure. It is pretty darn rare for a film to hold up that well from week to week. Some family films hold up that well or movies that don't do huge business their opening week but then generate some buzz for the second weekend. It is very rare for a blockbuster, highly touted sort of film to hold up like that. Titanic and Avatar did it, but not many others.

Still, I don't think the $40 million figure is out of the question. The much better than expected Sunday figure and the strong weekday numbers show there is a lot of positive buzz about this flick. I think folks who haev not seen it yet have been told by friends that they need to see it. Also, the somewhat mysterious and complex nature of the story have many people talking about seeing it again.

So, while I don't even begin to predict a small decline resulting in a $50 million weekend, I think $40 million is possible, and maybe even probable. It hurts that there is a viable adult-themed drama that is also getting decent reviews in Salt opening this weekend. If Salt was not around as new competition, I think $40 million would happen for sure. Salt makes it less certain and I am going to guess it just barely gets to $40 million. I'll go with something between $38 and $42 million as my prediction.

--Jason "I need to update the race with Despicable Me, though it is starting to be not much of a race ;) " Evans

[JasonEvans]

Day of week Despicable Me total Inception total
Fri (day 1) $21.34 mil $21.3 m $21.78 m $21.7 m
Sat (day 2) $20.83 mil $42.1 m $21.79 m $43.5 m
Sun (day 3) $14.21 mil $56.3 m $19.21 m $62.7 m
Mon (day 4) $7.52 mil $63.9 m $10.18 m $73.0 m
Tue (day 5) $8.15 mil $72.0 m $9.70 m $82.7 m
Wed (day 6) $7.15 mil $79.2 m $8.85 m $91.5 m
Thu (day 7) $6.39 mil $85.6 m $8.56 m $100.1 m
Fri (day 8) $10.13 mil $95.7 m
Sat (day 9) $12.72 mil $108.4 m
Sun (day 10) $9.94 mil $118.4 m

At the start of the 2nd weekend, Inception leads by $15 million. This could turn into a blow out very quickly. We may be entering the place where the big question becomes if Despicable can catch Shrek 4.

--Jason "Despicable is currently at $137 million, it need about $100 million more to catch Shrek 4!" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Day of week Despicable Me total Inception total
Fri (day 1) $21.34 mil $21.3 m $21.78 m $21.7 m
Sat (day 2) $20.83 mil $42.1 m $21.79 m $43.5 m
Sun (day 3) $14.21 mil $56.3 m $19.21 m $62.7 m
Mon (day 4) $7.52 mil $63.9 m $10.18 m $73.0 m
Tue (day 5) $8.15 mil $72.0 m $9.70 m $82.7 m
Wed (day 6) $7.15 mil $79.2 m $8.85 m $91.5 m
Thu (day 7) $6.39 mil $85.6 m $8.56 m $100.1 m
Fri (day 8) $10.13 mil $95.7 m $13.23 m $113.8 m
Sat (day 9) $12.72 mil $108.4 m
Sun (day 10) $9.94 mil $118.4 m

This is turning into a blowout. Inception is likely to stretch its lead to something like $25 million by the end of the weekend.

--Jason "I can taste my 5-for-5!!" Evans

[brevity]

If this were an election, I'd be writing a concession speech on behalf of Despicable Me right about now. But it ain't, so I won't. I'll give it at least one more weekend.

Weekend:
1. Inception $43,505,000
2. Salt $36,500,000
3. Despicable Me $24,100,000
4. The Sorcerer's Apprentice $9,685,000
5. Toy Story 3 $9,030,000

Summer:
1. Toy Story 3 $379,529,000
2. Iron Man 2 $310,821,000
3. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse $279,674,000
4. Shrek Forever After $234,813,000
5. The Karate Kid $171,713,000
6. Despicable Me $161,700,000
7. Inception $143,663,000
8. Grown Ups $142,412,000
9. The Last Airbender $123,264,000
10. Robin Hood $104,945,305

[darthur]

How is Shrek doing vs Inception / Despicable Me?

[JasonEvans]

How is Shrek doing vs Inception / Despicable Me?

Great question, and an important one.


Through 10 days of release:
Inception $143,600,000
Shrek Forever: $133,000,000
Despicable Me $118,400,000

Through 17 days of release:
Shrek Forever $183,200,000
Despicable Me $161,700,000

It is worth noting that Shrek got a big boost from the Memorial Day holiday weekend to really pump up its 17-day total. Also, it may just be my gut instinct, but it seems like Despicable has a chance to hold up long-term a bit better than Shrek did. Shrek really fell off a cliff after about 3 weeks, and I get the sense that Despicable may remain a player for a bit longer. Still, Despicable is operating from quite a deficit and, as I mentioned a page or so ago, the summer movie season is rapidly running out.Tthere simply may not be time for Despicable to make up the difference before kids return to school.

I do now think that Inception will top Shrek by a little bit. I think Inception is going to make around $260-270 million, maybe a little bit more. A very impressive figure for an adult-skewing sci-fi drama without a romantic theme to pull in the ladies.

--Jason "I am guessing that Despicable makes $205-215 million in the end" Evans

[JasonEvans]

A little update as we enter the weekend...

It is clear at this point that the Inception vs. Despicable race was never a race at all. Inception is going to finish well ahead of Despicable Me. Inception stretches its 25+ million dollar lead every day in the same day of release comparisons and it is even possible Inception will pass Despicable this weekend in total boxoffice (despite the fact that Inception has been out less time).

However, a very interesting race is shaping up between Despicable and Shrek forever. Here is how they look on a comparable days of release basis--


Through 19 days--
Shrek Forever - $188.6 million
Despicable Me - $168.0 million

A $20+ million lead may seem big, but Shrek's lead was $30 million just 5 days ago. Despicable is holding up very nicely and showing better legs than Shrek. Right now, Despicable is culling about a half a million a day off the lead every weekday and will probably take a million or more each day of the weekend.

Plus, we are less than 2 weeks from the point in the release cycle where Shrek just fell off a cliff. Starting with its 5th weekend (day of release #29) Shrek went into a free-fall, dropping by 60+% compared to the previous week. It left a lot of theaters and went from making more than a million a day to making just a couple hundred thousand.

At some point, Despicable will lose a lot of its theaters and have a similar drop-off like Shrek did. We just don't know when that will happen. This weekend could be very significant. Cats and Dogs II comes out and that is aimed at the exact same young family market that Despicable is currently ruling. It will be interesting to see if Cats & Dogs pushes Despicable out of a lot of theaters. I don't think that will happen because Despicable is still doing enough business so that theater owners will keep it around. Once we get past this weekend, there is nothing new for young family moviegoers for weeks, which could help Despicable stick around as a significant boxoffice force much longer than Shrek did.

I still think Despicable is going to come up $10-15 million short of Shrek, but this could be a very close race. If it gets close, we may not be able to close our contest until the end of August... perhaps even later.

--Jason "should we do a 'top movies of winter' contest for Nov and Dec releases?" Evans

[NashvilleDevil]

--"should we do a 'top movies of winter' contest for Nov and Dec releases?"

Yes we should

[JasonEvans]

Yes we should

We should start the poll in early-mid October. I think we need to start voting around the time that Red (Oct 15) and Hereafter (Oct 22) come out, certainly before Megamind and Due Date open on November 5th. The films that 100% need to be on the voting list are: Megamind, Tron Legacy, Tangled, Narnia: Dawn Treader, Yogi Bear, Little Fockers, and that Harry Potter thingy. There are probably a few others too. I'll do some research and get it up in a couple months.

-Jason "anyone who does not pick Harry Potter should be automatically DQ'd" Evans

[NashvilleDevil]

We should start the poll in early-mid October. I think we need to start voting around the time that Red (Oct 15) and Hereafter (Oct 22) come out, certainly before Megamind and Due Date open on November 5th. The films that 100% need to be on the voting list are: Megamind, Tron Legacy, Tangled, Narnia: Dawn Treader, Yogi Bear, Little Fockers, and that Harry Potter thingy. There are probably a few others too. I'll do some research and get it up in a couple months.

-Jason "anyone who does not pick Harry Potter should be automatically DQ'd" Evans

Where have I been? They are making a Yogi Bear movie? Looking at that list I think Narnia will be like Robin Hood this summer. Everyone will vote for it and it will disappoint.

[cato]

Looking at that list I think Narnia will be like Robin Hood this summer. Everyone will vote for it and it will disappoint.

I for one won't be fooled again. Narnia was my one errant pick in the inaugural edition.

[snowdenscold]

Where have I been? They are making a Yogi Bear movie? Looking at that list I think Narnia will be like Robin Hood this summer. Everyone will vote for it and it will disappoint.

I hope not - Dawn Treader was my favorite of the 7 books. Though I heard they cut the budget for this one due to less-than-expected results from Prince Caspian (which wasn't bad IMO)

[pfrduke]

-Jason "anyone who does not pick Harry Potter should be automatically DQ'd" Evans

Yeah, the poll should almost be "Which 4 movies will come in 2nd-5th after Harry Potter during the winter season?"

[JasonEvans]

The preliminary weekend numbers show:


Inception - $27.5 million
Dinner for Schmucks - $23.3 m
Salt - $19.3 m
Despicable Me - $15.5 m
Cats & Dogs - $12.5 m


Inception has now passed Despicable Me despite the fact that Inception is a newer film and is still earning far more per day than Despicable. We can put that race to bed.

The big deal now will be Despicable's attempt to get to the $234 million of Shrek 4. Despicable stands at about $189 million and this could be a very close race. I'll have a more detailed analysis of it once we have the final weekend figures.

--Jason "Inception is just the third film all year to be #1 three weeks in a row" Evans

[cato]

The big deal now will be Despicable's attempt to get to the $234 million of Shrek 4. Despicable stands at about $189 million and this could be a very close race. I'll have a more detailed analysis of it once we have the final weekend figures.

Lemme take a crack at this, since it appears that this weekend will go a long way to determining whether Despicable Me will be able to edge out Shrek, throwing the contest once again into a huge tie at 4 correct picks.

Through Wednesday, Despicable Me was at $197,697,485, roughly $37mm short of Shrek.

Here is how the two stack up based on days since release (27):


Despicable Me: $197,697,485
Shrek: $$215,791,971


So, Despicable Me is still running almost $20mm behind Shrek.

However, as I believe Jason noted above, this upcoming weekend (days 30 and 31) is where Shrek's numbers really started to drop off -- to the tune of 60% less than the previous weekend.

If Despicable Me drops at the same clip as Shrek, obviously, the race is over. But if Despicable Me can keep the drop in the 45% range, then it would gain about $3mm on the Ogre over the weekend. I wonder if that will be enough to keep alive it's hopes?

Either way, it looks like we'll know more on Monday.

[JasonEvans]

Lemme take a crack at this, since it appears that this weekend will go a long way to determining whether Despicable Me will be able to edge out Shrek, throwing the contest once again into a huge tie at 4 correct picks.

Through Wednesday, Despicable Me was at $197,697,485, roughly $37mm short of Shrek.

Here is how the two stack up based on days since release (27):


Despicable Me: $197,697,485
Shrek: $$215,791,971


So, Despicable Me is still running almost $20mm behind Shrek.

However, as I believe Jason noted above, this upcoming weekend (days 30 and 31) is where Shrek's numbers really started to drop off -- to the tune of 60% less than the previous weekend.

If Despicable Me drops at the same clip as Shrek, obviously, the race is over. But if Despicable Me can keep the drop in the 45% range, then it would gain about $3mm on the Ogre over the weekend. I wonder if that will be enough to keep alive it's hopes?

Either way, it looks like we'll know more on Monday.

I am in a place with spotty internet connection this week, so thanks for keeping folks appraised of where we stand.

Quick question-- who (other than me) would get 4 out of 5 if the Top 5 are: Toy Story 3, Iron Man 2, Eclipse 3, Inception, and Despicable Me? Is there going to be a logjam of folks who have 4 of those?

--Jason "after I stupidly did not pick Dark Knight a couple summers ago, I feel so redeemed by being one of only 3 folks to pick Inception this summer" Evans

[cato]

Lemme take a crack at this, since it appears that this weekend will go a long way to determining whether Despicable Me will be able to edge out Shrek, throwing the contest once again into a huge tie at 4 correct picks.

Through Wednesday, Despicable Me was at $197,697,485, roughly $37mm short of Shrek.

Here is how the two stack up based on days since release (27):


Despicable Me: $197,697,485
Shrek: $$215,791,971


So, Despicable Me is still running almost $20mm behind Shrek.

However, as I believe Jason noted above, this upcoming weekend (days 30 and 31) is where Shrek's numbers really started to drop off -- to the tune of 60% less than the previous weekend.

If Despicable Me drops at the same clip as Shrek, obviously, the race is over. But if Despicable Me can keep the drop in the 45% range, then it would gain about $3mm on the Ogre over the weekend. I wonder if that will be enough to keep alive it's hopes?

Either way, it looks like we'll know more on Monday.

If preliminary estimates are accurate, Despicable Me did indeed hold up better than Shrek, dropping approximately 40% from the previous weekend. It stands to gain over $4mm this weekend (including Friday), leaving it only $14mm behind Shrek on days-since-release basis.

If these numbers hold up, and the current trend continues, Despicable Me will start gain ground quickly. Still, it will take a couple of weeks of continued good numbers to seriously challenge for spot #5.

Looks like the engraver might have to wait just a bit longer to put Jason's name on the 5-for-5 trophy.

p.s., if Despicable Me edges out Shrek, I would be one of the many who chose the 3 big sequels plus Despicable Me (and Robin Hood). Who else is on that list?

[JasonEvans]

I am starting to get really pessimistic. I need Despicable Me to be replaced in theaters by something else... but it is holding up so darn well it is not leaving theaters. Arrgghhh!!

I forget, has anyone ever gone five-for-five? I am sooooo close at this point. And to do it by picking a film (Inception) that only 3 people picked to make the Top 5... it would have been so sweet.

By the way, allow me to give a little shout-out to Toy Story 3, which will pass the $400 million mark in a few days and will soon replace the godawful Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen as the #10 film of all-time. It is the highest grossing Pixar film ever.

--Jason "Shrek has gone into the discount theaters the past couple weeks, which has actully boosted its total to $236 million... it ain't much, but it is something" Evans

[cato]

I forget, has anyone ever gone five-for-five? I am sooooo close at this point. And to do it by picking a film (Inception) that only 3 people picked to make the Top 5... it would have been so sweet.

Well, Jason, it may be just you and me following this thread at this point. However, IIRC, no one has ever gone 5 for 5, or even close, really. I think that every year there has been a movie in the top 5 that no one picked. So, if you pull this off by picking Inception, it will indeed be something.

[brevity]

Well, Jason, it may be just you and me following this thread at this point. However, IIRC, no one has ever gone 5 for 5, or even close, really. I think that every year there has been a movie in the top 5 that no one picked. So, if you pull this off by picking Inception, it will indeed be something.

I'm still following the thread.

Summer:

1. Toy Story 3 $396,317,000
2. Iron Man 2 $311,801,000
3. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse $293,111,000
4. Shrek Forever After $236,550,000
5. Inception $227,732,000
6. Despicable Me $209,400,000

Sad fact: Shrek made $217M in its first 4 weeks, and $19M in its next 8 weeks.

Inception should pass Shrek to become #4 later this week. I was wondering if it would eclipse Eclipse at #3, but that seems unlikely. I think Despicable Me will pass Shrek before Labor Day for the #5 slot. Jason will still win this, but by tiebreaker among those of us who picked 4 of 5.

[micah75]

Just curious about "The Expendables", as I haven't seen this mentioned yet. I don't really expect much from this flick, but there are some big names. I suspect the action sequences will be old hat, but that the cameos and big name action stars will be a draw. Myself, I will probably wait until this goes to DVD. But who knows, it could be a hit.

[micah75]

Well, never mind, it's not that important. As you were.

[JasonEvans]

Just curious about "The Expendables", as I haven't seen this mentioned yet. I don't really expect much from this flick, but there are some big names. I suspect the action sequences will be old hat, but that the cameos and big name action stars will be a draw. Myself, I will probably wait until this goes to DVD. But who knows, it could be a hit.

Most of the action stars in this film are not nearly the boxoffice draws they once were. There is a reason this film is not getting released until the very end of the summer, as opposed to a month or two ago -- which is a more traditional time for an action flick. It could be good and fun, but the boxoffice expectations are not very huge. It will probably make $80 - $100 million in total boxoffice when all is said and done.

I am more excited about both Eat Pray Love and Scott Pilgrim, each of which are also opening this weekend and each of which have more positive critical buzz.

--Jason "the critics are raving about Scott Pilgrim vs. the World" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Sigh...

So close... so close and yet so far.

I am all but ready to concede my quest to be the first 5-for-5 picker in our history. Despicable Me now seems destined to beat Shrek Forever After when all is said and done.

Despicable made $6.9 million over the weekend bringing its total to $222.1 million. The $6.9 million figure was down just 25% from last weekend, further highlighting the impressive legs Despicable Me has shown.

Shrek stands at $237.2 million. At this point in Shrek's run, it was at $229.5 million, so it is still technically ahead by a little more than $7 million on a day-to-day comparison basis, but Despicable is trimming that deficit by large amounts every day. Barring some inexplicable plunge in its numbers, Despicable will catch Shrek in about 2 or 3 weeks.

It ain't over yet, but the fat lady is warming up her pipes.

-Jason "ahh well, I tried ;) " Evans

[JasonEvans]

Oh, in case anyone cares, here are the current "standings" through Sunday.


Toy Story 3 - $400.8 million
Iron Man 2 - $312.0 million
Twilight: Eclipse - $295.8 million
Inception - $248.4 million
Shrek Forever - $237.2 million
Despicable Me - $222.1 million
Karate Kid - $174.8 million
Grown Ups - $158.0 million
Last Airbender - $129.7 million
Robin Hood - $105.2 million
Salt - $103.4 million


--Jason "Salt will move up a spot or two and Despicable should pass Shrek, but aside from that, the order is set" Evans

[bjornolf]

You COULD be saved by the fact that schools are starting to go back. Not as many kids with free weekdays when their parents might send them to movies to get them out of their hair.

However, I think it's only fair that since Shrek is getting dollar theater play in this list, Despicable Me gets credit for its full run, including dollar theater.

-Joe

[snowdenscold]

Jason - would you buy $400 in movie tickets if it secured your 5 out of 5 ? :p

[JasonEvans]

Jason - would you buy $400 in movie tickets if it secured your 5 out of 5 ? :p

Nope. Lets say you were in my shoes, would you do that?

We could be taking on an interesting question here. The poll is Top Movies of Summer. Lets say Shrek did a re-release in November ("see Shrek again for the Holidays"). Would that count toward its summer total? Of course not, I say.

So, do we say at some point that summer has ended and results are finished? I am not sure when that would be -- perhaps a week or two after Labor Day, perhaps the end of September. It does seem silly to me to still be counting Summer movie ticket sales in November.

All that said, I don't think this discussion is really going to matter. I suspect that Despicable's take will be slow enough post-Labor Day that we should know where it is going to end up compared to Shrek. In other words, I don't think they will be so close as to make the dollar theater run really matter. Shrek has made just $2.1 million extra since it began its dollar theater run 19 days ago. This race may be close, but I am betting it won't be so close as to make the dollar run of Despicable really matter.

--Jason "Despicable will either tumble the next couple weeks or hold up and make this conversation irrelevant" Evans

[bjornolf]

We could be taking on an interesting question here. The poll is Top Movies of Summer. Lets say Shrek did a re-release in November ("see Shrek again for the Holidays"). Would that count toward its summer total? Of course not, I say.

So, do we say at some point that summer has ended and results are finished? I am not sure when that would be -- perhaps a week or two after Labor Day, perhaps the end of September. It does seem silly to me to still be counting Summer movie ticket sales in November.

--Jason "Despicable will either tumble the next couple weeks or hold up and make this conversation irrelevant" Evans

You could always make it September 23rd, the day that summer officially ends and fall begins. That's the day of this year's Autumnal Equinox.

-Joe

[cato]

All that said, I don't think this discussion is really going to matter.

I agree. As of Tuesday, here were the head-to-head numbers (40 days since release):


Despicable Me: $224,402,670
Shrek: $230,579,276


That leaves Despicable just over $6 mm behind on a day-since-release basis (approximately $13 mm behind total).

Currently, Despicable is gaining about $500k each weekday and $1mm each weekend day. At that rate, it would overtake Shrek around the end of next week. Of course, the daily take will continue to decline. So, the question is how much? If only by 25%-35%, then it should slip into 5th by labor day. If it hits the wall that Shrek hit, then it may never quite get there.

My money is on Shrek falling out of the top 5 by the end of labor day weekend. Since that is the traditional end of summer, I'd be happy closing the polls that date. If Shrek is still standing, Jason should get recognition for identifying the top 5 movies of the summer season.

[JasonEvans]

Its over!

Despicable Me had only a modest decline this weekend, dropping just 37% from last weekend to make 4.3 million dollars in ticket sales. It now stands at $230.7 million. Shrek Forever stands at 237.7. They are separated by just 7 million and I have a hard time seeing Shrek holding onto that lead. I expect Despicable to pass Shrek and end our quest for the Top 5 in the next 10 days... perhaps 14.

We'll be done by Labor Day, I think.

Sigh... 4 for 5.

--Jason "I was soooo close" Evans

[Udaman]

Jason, I agree, it is over. Despicable Me will pass Shrek over the Labor Day weekend (in fact, I've already told my kids that's what we are going to see that weekend - sorry).

Looks like lots of people will get 4 out of 5. A few things:

1) Yes, had Shrek 4 held on you would have been 5 for 5, but so would have been 05Dukie.

2) How about some love for the 7 of us who picked Despicable Me?

3) There is one person who will finish with a higher percentage than anyone. That thanks to Big Pappa - he only made 2 picks: Inception and Toy Story 3. Batting 1.000, but DQ'd for not enough at bats.

4) Those who didn't pick Toy Story 3 should be shaking their heads right now. However, this is no person who would have gotten all 5 right had they picked Toy Story 3.

Finally, I'm a movie nut and I've been to almost every movie this summer. If I had to rank my top 5 they would be:

5. Scott Pilgrim - very odd and not what I expected....but Cera plays it well, and it was by far the most unique film of the summer.

4. The Other Guys - Will Ferrell plays the same role in every movie, but he is consistently good at that role. Movie made me laugh a ton.

3. The Kids Are Allright - best acted movie of the year. There were only 2 moments that I didn't like (and in some ways they ruined the movie for me). If you want spoilers, I'll let you know what they were.

2. Inception. Sort of like Avatar in taking movie making to another level. Plot had some weakness to it - but great to have a sci fi movie that worked on so many levels.

1. Toy Story. By far. By a ton. The best movie I have seen in years. It touched on so many themes (love, friendship, growing up, growing apart, letting go, facing death, believing in who you are). This movie should win the Oscar for Best Picture. It won't - but it should.

(note, I have not seen Despicable Me, or Dinner with Schmucks, nor did I see Eclipse. I did see all the others, and Iron Man 2, Shrek 4, and Robin Hood are not in the list for a reason. In fact, I would put Prince of Persia ahead of those 3, at least it was entertaining the entire way through).

[cato]

Yesterday was the day that Despicable Me passed Shrek 4 on a days-since-release basis. After 49 days in the theaters, the score was:

Despicable Me: $233,416,405
Shrek: $233,282,505

DM still has approximately $5mm to go to pass Shrek 4 in absolute terms. It can make up 1/2 of that over this weekend if the drop in attendance stays around 40%.

[cf-62]

I shall be contributing my $20 to DM over the next two weeks.

Of course, I already gave Shrek my $20, so I guess it's a wash.

[JasonEvans]

Quick update as we come into Labor Day --


Toy Story 3 - $405,781,941
Iron Man 2 - $312,128,345
Twilight: Eclipse - $298,087,231
Inception - $271,034,171
Shrek Forever - $238,070,960
Despicable Me - $236,568,770
Karate Kid - $175,908,763
Grown Ups - $159,372,006
Last Airbender - $130,629,728
Salt - $113,444,082


Despicable did $2.8 million last weekend and will certainly pass Shrek this weekend. I think we should close the contest on Labor Day every year. Summer is officially over at that point.

A whole slew of us got 4 out of 5, right?

--Jason "we'll close ti down for a month and then begin the quest for the top movies of Winter" Evans

[bjornolf]

Quick update as we come into Labor Day --


Toy Story 3 - $405,781,941
Iron Man 2 - $312,128,345
Twilight: Eclipse - $298,087,231
Inception - $271,034,171
Shrek Forever - $238,070,960
Despicable Me - $236,568,770
Karate Kid - $175,908,763
Grown Ups - $159,372,006
Last Airbender - $130,629,728
Salt - $113,444,082


Despicable did $2.8 million last weekend and will certainly pass Shrek this weekend. I think we should close the contest on Labor Day every year. Summer is officially over at that point.

A whole slew of us got 4 out of 5, right?

--Jason "we'll close ti down for a month and then begin the quest for the top movies of Winter" Evans

Isn't summer officially over at the Autumn Equinox on the 23rd? ;)

[cf-62]

Quick update as we come into Labor Day --


Toy Story 3 - $405,781,941
Iron Man 2 - $312,128,345
Twilight: Eclipse - $298,087,231
Inception - $271,034,171
Shrek Forever - $238,070,960
Despicable Me - $236,568,770
Karate Kid - $175,908,763
Grown Ups - $159,372,006
Last Airbender - $130,629,728
Salt - $113,444,082


Despicable did $2.8 million last weekend and will certainly pass Shrek this weekend. I think we should close the contest on Labor Day every year. Summer is officially over at that point.

A whole slew of us got 4 out of 5, right?

--Jason "we'll close ti down for a month and then begin the quest for the top movies of Winter" Evans

Hmmmm, I wonder what film we'll ALL vote for...

[JasonEvans]

Hmmmm, I wonder what film we'll ALL vote for...

It has already been suggested that we title the Top 5 of Winter - "Movies that will finish 2nd-5th behind Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows."

--Jason "if Deathly Hallows does not make $300 million, I'll be shocked" Evans

[duke23]

I had a movie question for those of you in the know, so I figured I'd put it here. Does anyone know how long Avatar will be back in theaters? I never saw it the first time around, but my schedule prevents me from seeing it before the weekend of the 17th.

[JasonEvans]

I had a movie question for those of you in the know, so I figured I'd put it here. Does anyone know how long Avatar will be back in theaters? I never saw it the first time around, but my schedule prevents me from seeing it before the weekend of the 17th.

It is hard to say. There is nothing major on the horizon to push it out of the IMAX theaters for the moment, which bodes well for it running until the end of the month. But, it is only doing modest numbers and IMAX operators may turn to another film if Avatar does not hold up well.

My bet is that you will be fine if you go see it on the 17th, because that would just be its 3rd weekend back, but if you wait until the end of the month, it may be harder to find.

--Jason "I am sure the extra 9 minutes make a HUGE difference in the film" Evans

[duke23]

It is hard to say. There is nothing major on the horizon to push it out of the IMAX theaters for the moment, which bodes well for it running until the end of the month. But, it is only doing modest numbers and IMAX operators may turn to another film if Avatar does not hold up well.

My bet is that you will be fine if you go see it on the 17th, because that would just be its 3rd weekend back, but if you wait until the end of the month, it may be harder to find.

--Jason "I am sure the extra 9 minutes make a HUGE difference in the film" Evans

Thanks Jason! Normally I would just watch it on DVD, but the consensus seems to be that this is the one movie actually worth seeing in 3D, so I decided I'd give in.

[Reisen]

Ahem...

[theAlaskanBear]

Thanks Jason! Normally I would just watch it on DVD, but the consensus seems to be that this is the one movie actually worth seeing in 3D, so I decided I'd give in.

Yeah I've seen Avatar a couple of times on DVD, and I wasn't completely taken by the film, but I would definitely like to see it in 3D now.

[bjornolf]

So, did Despicable Me pass Shrek or not?

[cato]

So, did Despicable Me pass Shrek or not?

Yes. It blew past Shrek on Saturday. Here were the head to head results by the end of the Labor Day weekend:


Despicable Me: $241,498,630
Shrek: $238,371,987