Acc 2010-2011

[houstondukie]

Glancing at the ACC next year, it's pretty clear that DUKE will be the clear favorite and has a great shot of going 16-0. With so many talented players going pro, most teams will be worse next year.

Here is a look at some of the losses:

Clemson - lost Booker and Potter; Purnell gone
Wake Forest - lost Smith, Aminu, Williams, McFarland, and Weaver (add top 10 recruiting class, new coach)
Maryland - lost Vasquez, Milbourne, and Hayes
Georgia Tech - lost Favors, Lawal, Peacock, and Bell
Miami - lost Collins, Dews, Thomas, and McGowan (return Grant and Scott)
UNC - lost Davis, Ginyard, and Thompson (add top 3 recruiting class)
Virginia - lost Landesberg and Meyinsse
FSU - lost Alabi? and Reid (Singleton returns, Snaer breakout season?)
Boston College - in turmoil

Virginia Tech doesn't lose much (assuming Delaney returns) and NC State should be a lot better w/ Harrow and maybe C.J. Leslie signing.

Who is going to be Duke's biggest challenge? Anyone else think we can and should go 16-0?

In a 64-team tournament, I can't see more than 4 teams making it from the ACC next yr. Fortunately or unfortunately, with the 96-team expansion, probably 8 teams make it.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

Glancing at the ACC next year, it's pretty clear that DUKE will be the clear favorite and has a great shot of going 16-0.

Anyone else think we can and should go 16-0?
Welcome to my side of the fence! Ain't the kool-aide great!

[Bluedog]

Glancing at the ACC next year, it's pretty clear that DUKE will be the clear favorite

Yes...


and has a great shot of going 16-0.

Uh, no. A great shot? Even the greatest teams slip up every once in a while. But I believe we'll likely be the favorite in every game.


Who is going to be Duke's biggest challenge? Anyone else think we can and should go 16-0?

Can? Yes, but very unlikely. Should? No. I actually think NC St might surprise next season with Harrow and co.; I noticed you left them off your list.

[houstondukie]

I actually think NC St might surprise next season with Harrow and co.; I noticed you left them off your list.

I went back and edited my original post, but NC State will be playing at DUKE this year and we will not lose at home.

[camion]

As others have said, going 16-0 in conference play is possible, but not likely. For instance if we have a 80% chance of winning each individual game then we have about a 3% chance of winning them all. A 95% favorite in each game still has only about a 44% chance of winning them all.

Note: Finding this web site (http://www.analyzemath.com/Calculators_2/power_calculator.html) made the calculation a bit easier.

[Newton_14]

I went back and edited my original post, but NC State will be playing at DUKE this year and we will not lose at home.

Actually we play State twice next year. So a trip to Raleigh and a tough game. There is also still a good chance that State gets CJ Leslie. They will be much better than they were this year.

[roywhite]

Really, I see a lot of positives for the ACC since season end:

Upgrade for coach at Wake and BC
Though I respect Pernell, I think a change at Clemson could be positive also
Kyle returns
2 best (or certainly 2 of the best) incoming recruits in the country, Kyrie and HB
NC State is adding a PG (Harrow) to some other pieces

Duke is the definite favorite but the league should be strong overall

[Welcome2DaSlopes]

Is there a thread about the acc next year already? can we combine the two, because the other one had great information on it as well if I recall.

[jimsumner]

16-0?

Highly unlikely. Note that the 2010 NCAA champions lost by double digits to a mediocre North Carolina State team.

It's a tough neighborhood out there and there will be some slip-ups.

[cptnflash]

Just to add some historical context, in the 30 years Coach K has been at Duke, we've gone undefeated in conference exactly once, in 98/99. In fact, all of our national championship teams lost at least 2 games in conference. No reason to expect next year to be any different.

[sagegrouse]

Glancing at the ACC next year, it's pretty clear that DUKE will be the clear favorite and has a great shot of going 16-0. With so many talented players going pro, most teams will be worse next year.


I admire your enthusiasm, but.... The only recent undefeated Duke team in the ACC was in 1999 and did not win the NC. And the 1992 team lost two ACC games. I would tone it down. We lost a good bit of talent and next year is a new team with potentially 11 players in the mix.

This isn't a situation where we are starting over, but there is a team that needs to be built. Of course, the pieces look pretty darn good! :)

sagegrouse

[Big Pappa]

I also don't think we will go 16-0 but we are the favorites. I'm not sure that is negotiable. I think that UNC and VaTech will give us the most problems.

HB was going to be matchup nightmare until Kyle decided to come back, but he will still be a tough guard. He can flat out play. They have skill inside with Zeller and Henson but I don't think either one of them can bang with the Brothers Plumlee.

As far as Va Tech, most likely Delaney comes back and they don't lose any of their top 7 contributors. Hudson and Allen are both good players and Delaney can be a star.

[brevity]

Is there a thread about the acc next year already? can we combine the two, because the other one had great information on it as well if I recall.

Combine away:
http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?t=20826

It was on Page 6. Hard to blame someone for starting a new thread; easy to blame others for starting 5 full pages of threads since.

[wilson]

Upgrade for coach at WakeThis is highly debatable. Many in Winston would not agree with this assessment right now.

[dukelifer]

Glancing at the ACC next year, it's pretty clear that DUKE will be the clear favorite and has a great shot of going 16-0. With so many talented players going pro, most teams will be worse next year.

Here is a look at some of the losses:

Clemson - lost Booker and Potter; Purnell gone
Wake Forest - lost Smith, Aminu, Williams, McFarland, and Weaver (add top 10 recruiting class, new coach)
Maryland - lost Vasquez, Milbourne, and Hayes
Georgia Tech - lost Favors, Lawal, Peacock, and Bell
Miami - lost Collins, Dews, Thomas, and McGowan (return Grant and Scott)
UNC - lost Davis, Ginyard, and Thompson (add top 3 recruiting class)
Virginia - lost Landesberg and Meyinsse
FSU - lost Alabi? and Reid (Singleton returns, Snaer breakout season?)
Boston College - in turmoil

Virginia Tech doesn't lose much (assuming Delaney returns) and NC State should be a lot better w/ Harrow and maybe C.J. Leslie signing.

Who is going to be Duke's biggest challenge? Anyone else think we can and should go 16-0?

In a 64-team tournament, I can't see more than 4 teams making it from the ACC next yr. Fortunately or unfortunately, with the 96-team expansion, probably 8 teams make it.

NC State (yes, NC State), Va Tech and UNC will be good next year (UNC in particular)- and hard to say about Fla State. I expect a slip up for Duke- but certainly they will be the favorite in most games. The UNC games will likely be toss-ups. Va Tech and Fla State there will be tough but I am not sure of the schedule.

[NSDukeFan]

Actually we play State twice next year. So a trip to Raleigh and a tough game. There is also still a good chance that State gets CJ Leslie. They will be much better than they were this year.

Yeah, but they were a joke this year. Oops, wait a minute.
I agree that 16-0 is highly unlikely. I would be very happy with 2-0 vs. UNC.

[gumbomoop]

NC State (yes, NC State), Va Tech and UNC will be good next year (UNC in particular)- and hard to say about Fla State. I expect a slip up for Duke- but certainly they will be the favorite in most games. The UNC games will likely be toss-ups. Va Tech and Fla State there will be tough but I am not sure of the schedule.

Here's a link to ACC composite '10-'11 schedule. Unfortunately Duke gets both VaT and FSU only on road. http://www.theacc.com/auto_pdf/p_hotos/s_chools/acc/sports/m-baskbl/auto_pdf/model-three-years

My paranoia annually leads me to think Duke gets the shaft in this rotating unbalanced crap, and getting these 2 - who seem to be most logical to challenge UNC for 2d - only on road, seems our annual bad-luck-of-the-draw.

Last summer or so, more informed posters [temporarily] persuaded me that it's all just that, luck, no telling who'll be good any particular year.

With one exception: Duke. And given our good luck these days, it's perhaps boorish to complain too much about how tough our road will be.

Duke is the only team that could plausibly reach 14-2 [or better] next season. UNC is only other team that could plausibly reach 12-4. VaT and FSU might challenge UNC, and I guess NCSt and Miami are other likely top-half.

[arnie]

NC State (yes, NC State), Va Tech and UNC will be good next year (UNC in particular)- and hard to say about Fla State. I expect a slip up for Duke- but certainly they will be the favorite in most games. The UNC games will likely be toss-ups. Va Tech and Fla State there will be tough but I am not sure of the schedule.

The NCSU euphoria is fascinating to me. Yes they will have an upgrade in talent over a team that was near the bottom of the conference. But will that talent be coachable by a coach that hasn't proven he can win? Also, their talent will not match that at Duke or Carolina, and doesn't appear to exceed that of several other schools. They are assuming Harrow will be great. Don't know the answers to all these questions, but the Pack could easily be a .500 team next year. I think the Heels, FSU and VPI will all be better than the Pack.

[UrinalCake]

My paranoia annually leads me to think Duke gets the shaft in this rotating unbalanced crap, and getting these 2 - who seem to be most logical to challenge UNC for 2d - only on road, seems our annual bad-luck-of-the-draw.


I think our schedule this season was pretty favorable. Here's my unofficial breakdown, with final standing in parentheses:

TEAMS WE PLAYED TWICE
Maryland (2)
Clemson (5)
Georgia Tech (7)
Boston College (8)
UNC (10)

TEAMS WE PLAYED ONLY AT HOME
Virginia Tech (3)
FSU (4)
Wake Forest (6)

TEAMS WE PLAYED ONLY ON THE ROAD
NC State (9)
Virginia (11)
Miami (12)

So, the three teams we played only once on the road were among the bottom four teams. Meanwhile, the teams we played only at home were among the top six. Given how much better we played at home, this had to be an advantage.

Maryland is the team who has a legitimate gripe. Their road-only games were VT (3), Wake (6), and BC (8); their home-only games were GT (7), UNC (11), and Miami (12). Not to mention having to play three games in five days or something like that due to the blizzards. Imagine if they had won one more game or we had lost one more. Now we're not the #1 seed in the ACC tournament, we might not get a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament, etc. etc. So I for one am happy with how things worked out 8-)

[roywhite]

This is highly debatable. Many in Winston would not agree with this assessment right now.

As far as opinions of Wake's new coach, I'll claim some knowledge of that since I live and work in the Winston-Salem area, and know a number of Deacon Club types. Wait and see with the new guy, but Dino set the bar pretty low.

[gumbomoop]

I think our schedule this season was pretty favorable. Here's my unofficial breakdown, with final standing in parentheses:

TEAMS WE PLAYED TWICE
Maryland (2)
Clemson (5)
Georgia Tech (7)
Boston College (8)
UNC (10)

TEAMS WE PLAYED ONLY AT HOME
Virginia Tech (3)
FSU (4)
Wake Forest (6)

TEAMS WE PLAYED ONLY ON THE ROAD
NC State (9)
Virginia (11)
Miami (12)

So, the three teams we played only once on the road were among the bottom four teams. Meanwhile, the teams we played only at home were among the top six. Given how much better we played at home, this had to be an advantage.

Two comments:

1. You're being rational; I'm paranoid. I cannot explain why my paranoia over this unbalanced crap does not lead to pessimism re Duke's season, but in fact I'm a total optimist every year, think Duke will win virtually every game, run deep into NCAAT, am always genuinely surprised when we lose.

2. I'm certain last preseason a poster or 2 [ACCBBallFan? others?] calculated that GaT had toughest unbalanced schedule [having to face both Duke and UNC twice -- oops], and Duke somewhere in middle, UNC among easiest [double-oops].

[camion]

I think our schedule this season was pretty favorable. Here's my unofficial breakdown, with final standing in parentheses:

TEAMS WE PLAYED TWICE
Maryland (2)
Clemson (5)
Georgia Tech (7)
Boston College (8)
UNC (10)

TEAMS WE PLAYED ONLY AT HOME
Virginia Tech (3)
FSU (4)
Wake Forest (6)

TEAMS WE PLAYED ONLY ON THE ROAD
NC State (9)
Virginia (11)
Miami (12)

So, the three teams we played only once on the road were among the bottom four teams. Meanwhile, the teams we played only at home were among the top six. Given how much better we played at home, this had to be an advantage.

Maryland is the team who has a legitimate gripe. Their road-only games were VT (3), Wake (6), and BC (8); their home-only games were GT (7), UNC (11), and Miami (12). Not to mention having to play three games in five days or something like that due to the blizzards. Imagine if they had won one more game or we had lost one more. Now we're not the #1 seed in the ACC tournament, we might not get a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament, etc. etc. So I for one am happy with how things worked out 8-)

The thing that helped our schedule most is UNC's flameout. If they had played like a 2 or 3 instead of 10 our schedule would have been much tougher. The primary beneficiary of the unbalanced schedule this year appears to have been Va Tech who played each of the bottom four teams twice. That's half of their conference schedule against teams 9 through 12.

[Olympic Fan]

Yeah, there was an earlier thread ... and I'm sure there will be another one in a couple of weeks.

The thing is it is STILL too early to project the league next season. We can't make a firm prediction until we know:

(1) Will Delaney pull his name out of the draft? Right now, it looks like he will -- no reputable draft projection (are there such things?) has him going in the first round. He's a long-shot to be drafted in the second round.

This one is key, because with Delaney, the Hokies have everybody back and add the Chaney kid (a quality post player) from Florida. They will be in the mix for second/third in the conference. Without him, they take a big step back.
This situation is very much like a year ago when Vasquez put his name in the draft, then pulled it out.

(2) Will Alabi be entering the draft? I've seen several sites that list him, but I'm pretty sure he has not made an official announcement. This one is more scary than Delaney, because if Alabi enters, he's almost certainly a lottery pick. Hard to see him passing that up.

On the other hand, as good as he is, his departure wouldn't be as devastating for FSU as Delaney's would be at Va Tach. The 'Noles have a ton of big guys -- Xavier Gibson is a big-time talent and they'll finally have Jonathan "Crack in the Crack" Kreft on the roster next season.

(3) Will NC State add Leslie to a recruiting class that already includes a stud point guard and (maybe) a quality wing guard? It's almost certainly down to State or Kentucky and insiders I know say that State has a real chance.

Leslie would be the last piece on a quality team -- although Ryan Harrow is the most important addition. Easy to knock on Sidney as a coach, but his biggest failure in four years at State has been his failure to recruit an ACC quality point guard -- seriously, Coach K or Dean would be in the second division with Javier Gonzales running the point. We'll see how Sidney does with a gifted playmaker to run the show (remembering that he did pretty well his first year when Engin Atsur was healthy enough to play). And Harrow is gifted -- it was ridiculous that UNC-bound Kendall Marshall beat him out for the McDonald's game and the Jordan Classic.

Really a team with Harrow at the point; Lorenzo Brown at WG (assuming he qualifies academically -- still not a done deal); Scott Wood at WF; CJ Leslie at PF; Tracy Smith at center would be very, VERY solid. Even if you replace Leslie with Richard Howell, I think there's reason to think that State will be much better next season.

Those are the teams, along with Duke and UNC, in the mix for the top half of the ACC. Not sure I see anybody else vying for the four ACC Tournament seeds. And I can't rate Va Tech/FSU/NC State until we see their rosters.

That said, I would discourage any 16-0 talk. Since the ACC went to a 16-game schedule in 1992, the ACC has produced seven national champions and 17 Final Four teams -- yet just one team in that span (Duke in 1999) has finished 16-0 in the ACC.

Duke could be a great team next year and still lose a game or two in the league. So winning the ACC regular season -- THAT is a legitimate goal. Going 16-0?? I still remember deluded UNC fans who tought that they would go 16-0 in 2008 caught crying in the stands when Maryland beat them in Chapel Hill.

Don't let that happen to us.

[wilson]

As far as opinions of Wake's new coach, I'll claim some knowledge of that since I live and work in the Winston-Salem area, and know a number of Deacon Club types. Wait and see with the new guy, but Dino set the bar pretty low.I can claim some knowledge too. My brother went to Wake, and he ain't happy. Bzdelik had better get out of the gates well, as the honeymoon will be short as it is (if he gets one at all).

[Osiagledknarf]

Here's how I look at:

Georgia Tech: Have lost Favors and Lawal and no major prospects coming in, I see them taking a step back but with guys like Rice and Peacock that could develop they could still be a formidable team in the ACC..


NC State: Has a nice blend of young talent with an outstanding young point guard in Ryan Morrow coming in, and still possibly C.J Leslie one of the more talented people in this draft goes there, it could possibly make them a threat in the ACC.. Traci Smith is an above average player and I really expect that team to certainly improve from last season.. Expect them to really improve

UNC: An extremely talented team who is coming off a horrendous season which saw them have a .500 regular season.. Even with guys like Barnes, Bullock and Marshall coming in, what will make and break UNC this season is there point guard play. Will Larry Drew step it up or will he have a season like last season's? Will guys like Zeller and Henson develop? Will they have a consistent outside shooter with Bullock coming in? These are all questions that will truly make them an okay team that gets into the tourney, or a true contender that can make a run in the tourney and be a scary team going into them.. They certainly have the talent, let's see if they can put it together,


Florida State: A team "lying in the weeds" in the ACC next year.. The key question here is will Alabi stay or bolt for the NBA Draft? With the position he plays and his draft position, I expect him to bolt but who knows at this point.. Kitchen and Singleton are two talented guards who can score.. Could be dangerous if Alabi returns. If he doesn't, very average.

Duke: This could be one of the better teams that Coach K has ever had from a depth/expierence standpoint. This team is loaded from top to bottom and has a great chance to repeat.. However, like I brought up in another thread, in 2008-2009 UNC was supposed to run the table in the ACC and did not.. This team is evenly or even less talented then that team was and I expect another great season out of these guys, but I don't expect an undefeated one out of him.. Favorites to win the National title? Yes.. Running the table? No..

[houstondukie]

Here's how I look at:

Georgia Tech: Have lost Favors and Lawal and no major prospects coming in, I see them taking a step back but with guys like Rice and Peacock that could develop they could still be a formidable team in the ACC..


Peacock was a Senior. No more time to develop.

[MChambers]

However, like I brought up in another thread, in 2008-2009 UNC was supposed to run the table in the ACC and did not.. This team is evenly or even less talented then that team was and I expect another great season out of these guys, but I don't expect an undefeated one out of him.. Favorites to win the National title? Yes.. Running the table? No..

While I agree that it is silly to expect an undefeated season, I think it's also silly to compare the talent levels of 2009 UNC and 2001 Duke. Way too early to say how talented Duke will be, because we haven't seen half the team play in college, and all but two of the others haven't exactly had major roles.

I could argue that Irving is more talented than anyone on 2009 UNC, based on recruiting rankings, but that's just speculation.

I remember after Duke beat Vegas in 1991, everyone was talking about the huge upset. Some reporter, perhaps Michael Wilbon, wrote a column saying that a decade later everyone would agree that Duke actually was more talented, based on the players' NBA success. I think he was right.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if 2011 Duke eventually is judged to have been more talented than 2009 UNC. Have to say I don't really care about that, but I hope 2011 Duke wins the national title, like 2009 UNC did.

[Olympic Fan]

Florida State: A team "lying in the weeds" in the ACC next year.. The key question here is will Alabi stay or bolt for the NBA Draft? With the position he plays and his draft position, I expect him to bolt but who knows at this point.. Kitchen and Singleton are two talented guards who can score.. Could be dangerous if Alabi returns. If he doesn't, very average.

Not to rip on you, but as pointed out above, Peacock is a senior, so no more development there.

As for FSU, I have to take issue with your statement "Kitchen and Singleton are two talented guards who can score."

Well, in the first place, Singleton is not a guard -- he's a 6-9 forward who last year finished 5th in the ACC in blocked shots. He certainly is talented -- the ACC defensive player of the year -- but he's never proven to be a great scorer: last year he averaged 10.2 points a game and shot 41.2 percent from the floor (not too good for a frontcourt player).

Kitchen IS a guard, but he's not that much of a scorer either -- 8.2 points a game -- 42.6 percent from the floor and under 30 percent on 3-point shots.

FSU's best scoring option is probably Michael Snaer, a prep All-American who only averaged 8.8 as a freshman, but (unlike Singleton and Kitchen) appears to have a lot of upside to his offensive game. After Snaer, their best chance for a perimeter scorer might be the kid Ian Miller, a combo guard from Charlotte who is IMHO much better than his prep rankings.

And, as I said earlier, I'm not sure than Alabi's decision is that catastrophic for FSU. They have a LOT of talented big men in that program. None as good as Alabi, but they didn't make him the focal point of their offense. So I don't agree that they're contenders with him and "very average" without him. Better with him, yes ... but he's nowhere near as pivotal to them as Delaney is to Va Tech.

[hurleyfor3]

The NCSU euphoria is fascinating to me.

And it's not just this year. They're college basketball's equivalent of Chicago Cubs fans. I mean, don't they ever learn?

[jimsumner]

If Lorenzo Brown makes the grade, if C.J. Leslie pulls the trigger for State, if rival teams don't exploit a 155-pound freshman point guard, if senior Javi Gonzalez gives up the PG position to a freshman without chemistry issues, if Scott Wood figures out how to shoot off the dribble, if Richard Howell loses 15pounds and extends his shooting range, if Sidney Lowe fits all the pieces together, than NCSU could be pretty good next year.

Lot of ifs.

BTW, it's Ryan Harrow.

[BleedsP287]

No way we go 16-0 next year. Coach K will only have 7 players in the rotation and by the end of February we'll be so tired we'll wear down and lose at the end in the big games, even though we obviously got all the calls. Good thing we won the NC this year (thanks to the favorable seeding and all). Can't see it happening again. Seems like the game has passed Coach K by. Pity really.

[cptnflash]

No way we go 16-0 next year. Coach K will only have 7 players in the rotation and by the end of February we'll be so tired we'll wear down and lose at the end in the big games, even though we obviously got all the calls. Good thing we won the NC this year (thanks to the favorable seeding and all). Can't see it happening again. Seems like the game has passed Coach K by. Pity really.

If only he would stop worrying about the Olympics and focus on coaching Duke, we might actually get somewhere!

[gofurman]

Yeah, but they were a joke this year. Oops, wait a minute.
I agree that 16-0 is highly unlikely. I would be very happy with 2-0 vs. UNC.

Exactly - only Duke 99 did that. And I'll take a Title like this year over a perfect 16-0 any year

It's just too hard (NC State) to not slip up.

[Slackerb]

State just got a bump up a few preseason lists....

[baby-face dawkins]

State will be top half, IMO

[Johnboy]

Exactly - only Duke 99 did that. And I'll take a Title like this year over a perfect 16-0 any year

It's just too hard (NC State) to not slip up.

At least we can say we've won a title in a year in which we swept Carolina.

As far as the thread topic, I doubt we go undefeated (overall or in conference), and at some point, I'm afraid my enjoyment would turn to mere relief after wins. . . . but in retrospect, it'd be great to pull off!

[CEF1959]

I don't give a rip about BC, VaTech, Miami, etc. But I think it's good for the ACC to have a good NC State team. They were a charter member of Tobacco Road, and the 1974 championship team and Jim Valvano's connection makes me think fondly of them.

Plus, if there is one group that, historically, has hated UNC-CH as much as we do, it's the Pack fans. They just haven't had much to crow about in a while. But the enemy of my enemy is my friend.

Except for Norm Sloan. Even by '70s standards, his plaid sport coats were grotesque.

[Olympic Fan]

The 2010-11 preseason rankings are getting a lot clearer. One piece of the puzzle left -- will Delaney pull his name out of the draft (as expected)?

As it stands, I'm pretty confident with:

1. Duke -- not 16-0, but a clearcut No. 1 ...

2. UNC -- I hate picking them this high, but they have the second best talent in the league and a guy who is an effective coach -- last year was fun, but it was basically an everything-that-can-go-wrong did type year. They'll be better.

3. Virginia Tech -- assuming Delaney comes back (if he doesn't, drop them two places). Nice solid core, but not quite as good as their record last season .. they had just about the easiest ACC schedule it's possible to play.

4. NC State -- Leslie is a great addition, but the real upgrade is Ryan Harrow at the point. He's the real deal, folks.

5. Florida State -- I'd have them one spot higher is Alabi was coming back. But he's gone (and not coming back).

6. Miami -- I believe that having a great point guard is half the battle in college basketball and I believe that Durand Scott is on the verge of being a great point guard. And if Reggie Johnson ever gets in shape, he'll be a better center that Dwayne Collins ever dreamed of being.

7. Georgia Tech -- a nice group of wing players -- I really like Oliver and Rice, plus Shumpert and Udofia have potential ... but with only two redshirts and Sheehan up front, challenged in the paint. Plus, Udofia is still learning to play point and Moe Miller is kind of like Javi Gonzales -- experienced, but not that good.

everybody else -- Donohue inherits an experienced if underachieving core at BC (even without Sanders ... I still like Trapani and Reggie Jackson); Gary has a promising big man to build around and I respect Gary's coaching ability, but he has no reliable guards (Mosby? Bowie? one of the two frosh?); Brownell inherits a nice core at Clemson, but the Tigers lose their best player and still need shooters; Bzdelik has some promising frosh to work with at Wake, plus I like Tony Woods' potential.

You can put these four teams in a box and shake them up.

12. Virginia -- Bennett has too far to go. He's adding some nice freshmen, but the core is even weaker than Wake's (and the freshmen aren't as good).

[gumbomoop]

The 2010-11 preseason rankings are getting a lot clearer. One piece of the puzzle left -- will Delaney pull his name out of the draft (as expected)?

As it stands, I'm pretty confident with:

1. Duke -- not 16-0, but a clearcut No. 1 ...

2. UNC -- I hate picking them this high, but they have the second best talent in the league and a guy who is an effective coach -- last year was fun, but it was basically an everything-that-can-go-wrong did type year. They'll be better.

3. Virginia Tech -- assuming Delaney comes back (if he doesn't, drop them two places). Nice solid core, but not quite as good as their record last season .. they had just about the easiest ACC schedule it's possible to play.

4. NC State -- Leslie is a great addition, but the real upgrade is Ryan Harrow at the point. He's the real deal, folks.

5. Florida State -- I'd have them one spot higher is Alabi was coming back. But he's gone (and not coming back).

6. Miami -- I believe that having a great point guard is half the battle in college basketball and I believe that Durand Scott is on the verge of being a great point guard. And if Reggie Johnson ever gets in shape, he'll be a better center that Dwayne Collins ever dreamed of being.

7. Georgia Tech -- a nice group of wing players -- I really like Oliver and Rice, plus Shumpert and Udofia have potential ... but with only two redshirts and Sheehan up front, challenged in the paint. Plus, Udofia is still learning to play point and Moe Miller is kind of like Javi Gonzales -- experienced, but not that good.

everybody else -- Donohue inherits an experienced if underachieving core at BC (even without Sanders ... I still like Trapani and Reggie Jackson); Gary has a promising big man to build around and I respect Gary's coaching ability, but he has no reliable guards (Mosby? Bowie? one of the two frosh?); Brownell inherits a nice core at Clemson, but the Tigers lose their best player and still need shooters; Bzdelik has some promising frosh to work with at Wake, plus I like Tony Woods' potential.

You can put these four teams in a box and shake them up.

12. Virginia -- Bennett has too far to go. He's adding some nice freshmen, but the core is even weaker than Wake's (and the freshmen aren't as good).

Mostly I agree with OF here, but agreeing is no fun, so....... a few minor [?] quibbles.

1. Yes, Duke, only team that could get to 14-2 or better, and unlikely to fall below 13-3.

2. Yep, the Heels are back. I'm glad to have OF on my side here, or to be on OF's side, as I foolishly stuck with them far too long in '09-'10. The obvious compensation for my denseness was watching them self-destruct. I'll be pleased if I am as dense re the Heels in '10-'11.

3-5. Fight among VT, FSU, NCS for Thurs bye in ACCT; any one of these teams just might overtake Heels for #2; and maybe 2 of these could dump Heels a bit further down [this must mean to 4th......] Could Heels miss the bye? I doubt it, but I'm dense.

6. Miami - I don't think they can get much higher, but not likely to fall much lower, either.

7-10. Md, BC, Clemson, GaT - muddled, but I'd predict them in the order I've listed them here. Md seems only one of these capable of surprising jump up, say, to #4 or 5. But too many ?-marks in all these teams.

11. Wake

12, UVa

[ice-9]

Does UNC have the second best talent? An argument could be made that they have the best sum of individual talent -- but that collectively something gets lost. Probably due to coaching. :D

UVA will be better than you think. Without Landesburg they gave us a very, very tough game in the ACC tournament. Tony Bennett is the real deal and look for him to bring UVA out of the cellar and into the middle ranks. Defense is what will win you games over the course of a season, and defense is what Bennett teaches well.

BC will really struggle. They don't have the talent and they have a new coach used to developing Ivy teams who had only one season of success...and that one season required a team full of seniors.

[gumbomoop]

Does UNC have the second best talent? An argument could be made that they have the best sum of individual talent -- but that collectively something gets lost. Probably due to coaching. :D

UVA will be better than you think. Without Landesburg they gave us a very, very tough game in the ACC tournament. Tony Bennett is the real deal and look for him to bring UVA out of the cellar and into the middle ranks. Defense is what will win you games over the course of a season, and defense is what Bennett teaches well.

BC will really struggle. They don't have the talent and they have a new coach used to developing Ivy teams who had only one season of success...and that one season required a team full of seniors.

Three points worth considering.

1. I'd say yes to talent, and have regularly admitted that I overvalued their talent this past season. Either they weren't as talented as I thought, or not quite as talented, combined with no leadership on floor or bench [hint, hint], emotional and psychological collapse, abetted by injuries. I kept saying last season, "I can't believe they're that incompetent" [players and coach], whereas some other posters said, "Oh yes they are." So I cannot fully justify rating them #2. I blame Olympic Fan.

2. I absolutely agree that Bennett is first-rate, and so would not be shocked to see UVa escape the cellar next season. I think Duke plays them twice next year, so we'll get a fair look at how hard they defend. Presumably they need to keep the game in the 50s to win. Are you saying they could rise to, I don't know, 7 or 8? That would shock me.

3. Yes, BC may have even more ?s than most other ACC teams. New coach and system could be very disruptive, yes. So, placing them around #8 could be way too generous.

[Hermy-own]

I understand that this is slightly off topic, but I think it is relevant to the strength of the ACC and the NCAA next year.

Either the NBA or the NCAA must change their rules and tell players that come to college that they must stay 3 or 4 years. This is similar to baseball, so it is not at all unheard of. I don't need to go into the reasons this should happen, but just imagine all the talent the ACC would have next year:

Alabi comes back and FSU has a star center. Favors & Lawal come back and suddenly Georgia Tech seems like a real threat. Ed Davis comes back and possibly lives up to his talent, knowing that he is playing for his paycheck in the future. Sylvan Landesburg returns and helps his coach return Virginia to respectability.

The list goes on. This past year, can you imagine Duke with Henderson and UNC with Lawson? That would be an epic matchup, assuming that with Lawson running the point all the talent on the UNC team shines a bit more brightly.

It's sad how WEAK the ACC will be next year in comparison to how strong it might have been. Ditto the NCAA as a whole.

[Jderf]

This past year, can you imagine Duke with Henderson and UNC with Lawson?

Yea, can't you just imagine all the things we could of accomplished this year if we had Gerald? But now, alas, all we can do is look back and wonder about the possibilities...

[papa whiskey]

Yea, can't you just imagine all the things we could of accomplished this year if we had Gerald? But now, alas, all we can do is look back and wonder about the possibilities...

It's always great to think about but it's been said many times on this board and I happen to agree that we probably would not have won the NC in that situation. The whole team would have different roles and this team gelled perfectly at the right time. For what it's worth I think much more often about a team featuring J-Will, Dunleavy, Boozer, JJ, Shelden, D-Ewing, and D-Jones. Just in the ACC I think you could put together several "what if" teams that would be rediculous.

[JohnGalt]

It's always great to think about but it's been said many times on this board and I happen to agree that we probably would not have won the NC in that situation. The whole team would have different roles and this team gelled perfectly at the right time. For what it's worth I think much more often about a team featuring J-Will, Dunleavy, Boozer, JJ, Shelden, D-Ewing, and D-Jones. Just in the ACC I think you could put together several "what if" teams that would be rediculous.

Not to take the thread too far off topic, but I think the consummate example is:

What if Kobe had been a senior on the '99 team?

...hmmmm....

[papa whiskey]

Not to take the thread too far off topic, but I think the consummate example is:

What if Kobe had been a senior on the '99 team?

...hmmmm....

Hasn't Kobe fairly recently come out and said he would not have gone to Duke?

[Kedsy]

* * *

2. UNC -- I hate picking them this high, but they have the second best talent in the league and a guy who is an effective coach -- last year was fun, but it was basically an everything-that-can-go-wrong did type year. They'll be better.

* * *

4. NC State -- Leslie is a great addition, but the real upgrade is Ryan Harrow at the point. He's the real deal, folks.


I'm not sure why most people think UNC will have so much more talent than State next year. I don't know enough to guess rotations on either team, but unless I'm missing something, the following seems like the depth chart for both teams:

PG: Harrow/J Gonzalez vs. Drew/Marshall

2/3: Brown/Wood/Williams vs. Barnes/Bullock/Strickland/Graves/McDonald

4/5: Smith/Leslie/Howell/Painter vs. Henson/Zeller/Wear twins

So, in my mind State has the edge at PG. UNC has a slight edge at the 2/3, but only slight, considering only 2 wing players will play at any one time. And if Henson continues his advancement it might be close but I would give the edge to State at the 4/5. So if you add it all up, I think State's the better team, unless Barnes is a national player of the year candidate. And how likely is that? He's not even a lock for ACC freshman of the year.

Put another way, UNC has more depth, but State now has a credible 8 or 9 man rotation and how much will UNC's 10th and 11th men affect the game? If you look at the starting fives of Harrow/Brown/Wood/Leslie/Smith vs. Drew (or Marshall)/Barnes/Bullock/Henson/Zeller, you probably like State's guy at 3 or 4 of the positions, and the one or two in which UNC has the edge, it might not be a very big edge. True, State will be heavily relying on three freshmen, but UNC will be heavily relying on two or three freshmen themselves. I just don't see UNC as the better team, and if they are it's really, really, close.

I also think people are sleeping on Miami, who I think will be in the 4/5 mix with Virginia Tech and Florida State, and Virginia, who with their coach and system have a chance to win more games than any (or all, if things fall right) of BC, Tech, Clemson, Wake, and Maryland. My guess is two of these teams are better than I expect, and Virginia finishes 9th.

[Slackerb]

Is this one of the better freshmen classes for the ACC in the past few years? The '06 class was the last one that might rival this one.

Duke (#10):
5*Irving
4*Thornton
4*Hairston

State (#11):
5*Leslie
5*Brown
5*Harrow

UNC (#4):
5*Bullock
5*Barnes
5*Marshall

Wake(#12):
4*Desrosiers
4*Mckie
4*Tabb
4*Terrell

UVA (#16):
4*Johnston
4*Harrell

Vtech:
4*Eddie

FSU:
4*White
4*Miller

Miami:
4*Brown

BC:
4*Noreen

GT:
4*Morris

Maryland:
4*Parker

[Duvall]

I'm not sure why most people think UNC will have so much more talent than State next year. I don't know enough to guess rotations on either team, but unless I'm missing something, the following seems like the depth chart for both teams:

PG: Harrow/J Gonzalez vs. Drew/Marshall

2/3: Brown/Wood/Williams vs. Barnes/Bullock/Strickland/Graves/McDonald

4/5: Smith/Leslie/Howell/Painter vs. Henson/Zeller/Wear twins

So, in my mind State has the edge at PG. UNC has a slight edge at the 2/3, but only slight, considering only 2 wing players will play at any one time. And if Henson continues his advancement it might be close but I would give the edge to State at the 4/5. So if you add it all up, I think State's the better team, unless Barnes is a national player of the year candidate. And how likely is that? He's not even a lock for ACC freshman of the year.

Put another way, UNC has more depth, but State now has a credible 8 or 9 man rotation and how much will UNC's 10th and 11th men affect the game? If you look at the starting fives of Harrow/Brown/Wood/Leslie/Smith vs. Drew (or Marshall)/Barnes/Bullock/Henson/Zeller, you probably like State's guy at 3 or 4 of the positions, and the one or two in which UNC has the edge, it might not be a very big edge. True, State will be heavily relying on three freshmen, but UNC will be heavily relying on two or three freshmen themselves. I just don't see UNC as the better team, and if they are it's really, really, close.

I think you may be underestimating UNC's advantage at the 2/3. Barnes is a freshman, but he should still give UNC considerably more than State will get from Scott Wood and others. And Smith didn't seem to have much success against UNC's length last year, though the addition of Leslie may help.


I also think people are sleeping on Miami, who I think will be in the 4/5 mix with Virginia Tech and Florida State, and Virginia, who with their coach and system have a chance to win more games than any (or all, if things fall right) of BC, Tech, Clemson, Wake, and Maryland. My guess is two of these teams are better than I expect, and Virginia finishes 9th.

I don't really understand the Virginia love - I think Bennett can be successful there eventually, but there just won't be much there for him to work with next year. Less talent than Wake and BC, and those teams should be terrible.

They may finish ahead of Tech. The Hewitt Factor cannot be overestimated.

[Olympic Fan]

I agree with Duvall ...

I would agree that State has a slight edge at the point (I like Harrow more than Marshall) and an edge in the paint with Tracy Smith.

But I think UNC gets a big (not a slight) edge on the wings. As much as I love Harrow, I also love Harrison Barnes (as a player, not a person). He's much better than Leslie ... and Bullock is not far behind.

Also, not quite sure I agree that the edge on the wing in minimized by only being able to play two at a time -- teams quite often play three wings at a time (remember Duke '08 and '09??). I think both Barnes and Leslie will see plenty of minutes at the "4" position next season.

Finally, I give UNC the edge because I have more faith in Roy Williams on the bench than Sidney Lowe. It's funny, because I'm always on these boards defending Sidney -- but that defense is 'Give him a chance ... he's never had talent to work with' ... As much as I dislike that postering jerk in Chapel Hill -- and as much fun as it was to watch him melt down this season -- we've seen him fashion quality teams before. He's a proven winner and that's something Sidney is trying to prove.

Not saying that Sidney couldn't prove it this season ... just that on paper, before the year, I gotta rank UNC ahead of State. And, yeah, I know that prep ratings are flawed, but you gotta think with UNC's nine McDonald's A-As to State's one (Leslie), the talent is on UNC's side. Even if you eliminate the riduclous picks (Drew and the Wear twins) and flip-flop Marshall and Harrow as they should have done (without politics), you'd end up with UNC with five legit McDonald's A-As (Barnes, Bullock, Strickland, Henson and Zeller) against two for State (Harrow and Leslie).

[Kedsy]

Not saying that Sidney couldn't prove it this season ... just that on paper, before the year, I gotta rank UNC ahead of State. And, yeah, I know that prep ratings are flawed, but you gotta think with UNC's nine McDonald's A-As to State's one (Leslie), the talent is on UNC's side. Even if you eliminate the riduclous picks (Drew and the Wear twins) and flip-flop Marshall and Harrow as they should have done (without politics), you'd end up with UNC with five legit McDonald's A-As (Barnes, Bullock, Strickland, Henson and Zeller) against two for State (Harrow and Leslie).

Well, he may not have been a Mickie D, but if you were choosing a team today, who would you pick first, Zeller or Tracy Smith? Personally, I don't think it's close.

Is Bullock going to be that much better than Lorenzo Brown? I haven't seen either of them play, but they are both highly ranked recruits. And I know Barnes is a much better player than Scott Wood, but I figure Wood could go for 15 and 4 next year, and how much better than that will HB's stats be? Can his impact really make up for State's advantage at PG and C? Also, Leslie may not be as good as Barnes, but how does he compare to Henson?

If both Barnes and Leslie both play at the "4," I think that would be better for State. UNC's lineup would be something like Marshall, Strickland, Bullock, Barnes, and Henson, vs. State's lineup of Harrow, Brown, Wood, Leslie, and Smith. Barnes may be better than Leslie, but not by so much, and it's UNC's only clear advantage, going position by position.

I understand the coaching issue, and sure you have to give the edge to Roy, but how proven is he when he doesn't have an outstanding PG to run his system (even at Kansas)? I think the jury is still out on whether he can fashion a quality team without having that crucial piece at PG, which in my mind dilutes the power of UNC's coaching edge.

Anyway, we'll see. The fact that we can have this discussion with a straight face is good for the ACC.

[Kedsy]

I think you may be underestimating UNC's advantage at the 2/3. Barnes is a freshman, but he should still give UNC considerably more than State will get from Scott Wood and others. And Smith didn't seem to have much success against UNC's length last year, though the addition of Leslie may help.

A lot of that UNC length was Davis, who's gone. Also, don't undersell Wood -- the guy can fill up the hoop, and on a team with all the other pieces, that's a valuable commodity.


I don't really understand the Virginia love - I think Bennett can be successful there eventually, but there just won't be much there for him to work with next year. Less talent than Wake and BC, and those teams should be terrible.

They may finish ahead of Tech. The Hewitt Factor cannot be overestimated.

What did UVa have this past year after Landesberg was suspended? Yet they beat a more talented team in BC and played very tough against both Maryland and Duke. Bennett's defensive system is a great equalizer, if the team buys into it. With another year to teach it and more of "his" players who are more likely to buy in, they're going to steal a few 57-52 games at home and end up with 5 or so league wins, which should be good enough for 9th in the league, if not better.

[left_hook_lacey]

Yes...



Uh, no. A great shot? Even the greatest teams slip up every once in a while. But I believe we'll likely be the favorite in every game.



Can? Yes, but very unlikely. Should? No. I actually think NC St might surprise next season with Harrow and co.; I noticed you left them off your list.

I agree 100% with this. I think it is optimistic to say the least that any team in the ACC could or should go 16-0. As Bluegdog said, even the very best teams slip up, or more often, the underdog plays an out-of-its mind game one night and hits everything. Either way, going 16-0 in the ACC is a very lofty goal. Remember a couple of years ago when some of the talking heads were saying that UNC could possibly go undefeated for the SEASON? They lost 3 games in the ACC that year. They went on to win the NC as we all know, and they won each NCAA game by double-digits along the way, and yet, they couldn't escape ACC without 3 losses, 4 if you count the tournament.

There are too many heated rivalries and things that could happen to go 16-0. So, 2010-2011 Bluedevils....PROVE ME WRONG!!! :D

[left_hook_lacey]

Is this one of the better freshmen classes for the ACC in the past few years? The '06 class was the last one that might rival this one.

Duke (#10):
5*Irving
4*Thornton
4*Hairston

State (#11):
5*Leslie
5*Brown
5*Harrow

UNC (#4):
5*Bullock
5*Barnes
5*Marshall

Wake(#12):
4*Desrosiers
4*Mckie
4*Tabb
4*Terrell

UVA (#16):
4*Johnston
4*Harrell

Vtech:
4*Eddie

FSU:
4*White
4*Miller

Miami:
4*Brown

BC:
4*Noreen

GT:
4*Morris

Maryland:
4*Parker

This is a good question. I think it's more intriguing than any year in recent memory because of all the studs coming to tobacco road. I think this will be an exciting year for the ACC. Just think if State can put together some wins, and assuming UNC is back to form, we could see all three triangle teams in the top 15 during regular season play and fighting for tournament seeding. How fun would that be?

[JohnGalt]

This is a good question. I think it's more intriguing than any year in recent memory because of all the studs coming to tobacco road. I think this will be an exciting year for the ACC. Just think if State can put together some wins, and assuming UNC is back to form, we could see all three triangle teams in the top 15 during regular season play and fighting for tournament seeding. How fun would that be?

*sigh*...back to the bottom for Clem(p)son...

[Olympic Fan]

This might deserve its own thread, but since we were discussing the State and UNC recruiting classes -- and I was arguing that Harrow was superior to Marshall -- I thought the new Rivals 150, just released today -- might be instructive:

http://rivals.yahoo.com/Kentucky/football/recruiting/rankings/rank-1909

I don't agree with all their rankings (especially placing Josh Shelby at No. 1), but still a fairly decent list. Here's the ranking for incoming ACC players:

2. Harrison Barnes, UNC
4. Kyrie Irving, Duke
10.Reggie Bullock, UNC
14. C.J. Leslie, N.C. State
19. Ryan Harrow, N.C. State
32. Kendall Marshall, UNC
36. Lorenzo Brown, N.C. State
53. J.T. Terrell, Wake
56. Josh Hairston, Duke
57. Travis McKie, Wake
60. Mychal Parker, Maryland
62. Ian Miller, FSU
67. Okara White, FSU
70. Jerell Eddie, Va Tech
87. Jason Morris, Ga Tech
88. Melvin Tabb, Wake
91. Carson Desrosiers, Wake
108. James Johnson, Virginia
119. Joe Harris, Virginia
125. Terrell Stoglin, Maryland
140. Tyler Thornton, Duke
148. Will Regan, Virginia

Wow, 17 of the top 100 coming to the ACC -- and the top 10 of them coming to the Big Four. On paper, that's a very good class!

[gumbomoop]

I'm a little surprised that Md commit, Pe'Shon Howad [combo guard], isn't top 150. The one time I saw him, he was pretty good. But maybe once you get past 75, it's a guess. Come to think of it, once you get past 15-20, it's all debatable.

I know Shelby's real good, but from the several AllStar games I saw on tv, HB and KI are 1 and 1A.

[Welcome2DaSlopes]

I know Shelby's real good, but from the several AllStar games I saw on tv, HB and KI are 1 and 1A.

I would add Jared Sullinger to that list, any three of them could be the best in the class this year.

[Slackerb]

State's recruiting class bumped up to #5 after the Leslie recommit.

http://scouthoops.scout.com/a.z?s=75&p=9&c=14&cfg=bb&yr=2010

6 top 20 classes and 2 of the top 5. Pretty good infusion of talent...

Definitely the best on paper since '06....maybe before that. When was the last great class before '06?

[Dev11]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/blog/_/name/katz_andy/id/5148732/decision-time-draws-players-fence

North Carolina coach Roy Williams said John Henson finally crossed the 200-pound weight line.

I guess they finally put him on the meal plan. In terms of things to 'look out for' in the ACC next year, John Henson is now officially visible.

[-bdbd]

The 2010-11 preseason rankings are getting a lot clearer. One piece of the puzzle left -- will Delaney pull his name out of the draft (as expected)?

As it stands, I'm pretty confident with:

1. Duke -- not 16-0, but a clearcut No. 1 ...

2. UNC -- I hate picking them this high, but they have the second best talent in the league and a guy who is an effective coach -- last year was fun, but it was basically an everything-that-can-go-wrong did type year. They'll be better.

3. Virginia Tech -- assuming Delaney comes back (if he doesn't, drop them two places). Nice solid core, but not quite as good as their record last season .. they had just about the easiest ACC schedule it's possible to play.

4. NC State -- Leslie is a great addition, but the real upgrade is Ryan Harrow at the point. He's the real deal, folks.

5. Florida State -- I'd have them one spot higher is Alabi was coming back. But he's gone (and not coming back).

6. Miami -- I believe that having a great point guard is half the battle in college basketball and I believe that Durand Scott is on the verge of being a great point guard. And if Reggie Johnson ever gets in shape, he'll be a better center that Dwayne Collins ever dreamed of being.

7. Georgia Tech -- a nice group of wing players -- I really like Oliver and Rice, plus Shumpert and Udofia have potential ... but with only two redshirts and Sheehan up front, challenged in the paint. Plus, Udofia is still learning to play point and Moe Miller is kind of like Javi Gonzales -- experienced, but not that good.

everybody else -- Donohue inherits an experienced if underachieving core at BC (even without Sanders ... I still like Trapani and Reggie Jackson); Gary has a promising big man to build around and I respect Gary's coaching ability, but he has no reliable guards (Mosby? Bowie? one of the two frosh?); Brownell inherits a nice core at Clemson, but the Tigers lose their best player and still need shooters; Bzdelik has some promising frosh to work with at Wake, plus I like Tony Woods' potential.

You can put these four teams in a box and shake them up.

12. Virginia -- Bennett has too far to go. He's adding some nice freshmen, but the core is even weaker than Wake's (and the freshmen aren't as good).

I guess we'll find out pretty early next year which (UNC-educated)ACC media members are in the ABD club, as Duke is an obvious pick for top of the ACC -- so much so that I'd say anyone NOT picking them is grinding an ax of some kind... I think next comes a bunch of VPI, NCSU, NC@CH, FSU and potentially (but probably not) Mia. If their star returns, I'd likely take VPI at the higher end of that pack and FSU or NC@CH towards the bottom of it. I think this board, collectively, is too influenced by past years of Kerlina accomplishments... That is a team that finished next-to-last this year folks! Even Duke's great 1986 class (that lost in the last minute of the N.C. game) was awful their first 1-2 years. It takes freshmen time to gel, learn systems, get used to the crowds, get used to playing against bigger/faster opposition, etc.

The ACC's second "bunch" would include Mia, GT and MD. Last-minute recruits, defections, etc will influence the ranking of course.

Then we have a bottom group maybe in an order like... Wake, Clemson, UVA, and then BC.


This might deserve its own thread, but since we were discussing the State and UNC recruiting classes -- and I was arguing that Harrow was superior to Marshall -- I thought the new Rivals 150, just released today -- might be instructive:

http://rivals.yahoo.com/Kentucky/football/recruiting/rankings/rank-1909

I don't agree with all their rankings (especially placing Josh Shelby at No. 1), but still a fairly decent list. Here's the ranking for incoming ACC players:

2. Harrison Barnes, UNC
4. Kyrie Irving, Duke
10.Reggie Bullock, UNC
14. C.J. Leslie, N.C. State
19. Ryan Harrow, N.C. State
32. Kendall Marshall, UNC
36. Lorenzo Brown, N.C. State
53. J.T. Terrell, Wake
56. Josh Hairston, Duke
57. Travis McKie, Wake
60. Mychal Parker, Maryland
62. Ian Miller, FSU
67. Okara White, FSU
70. Jerell Eddie, Va Tech
87. Jason Morris, Ga Tech
88. Melvin Tabb, Wake
91. Carson Desrosiers, Wake
108. James Johnson, Virginia
119. Joe Harris, Virginia
125. Terrell Stoglin, Maryland
140. Tyler Thornton, Duke
148. Will Regan, Virginia

Wow, 17 of the top 100 coming to the ACC -- and the top 10 of them coming to the Big Four. On paper, that's a very good class!


It probably goes w/o saying, but in the context of this discussion - likely impacts on ACC teams' 10-11 performances - any recruits list like this needs to include transfers and JC's coming in. In that context, Curry for Duke is a top-25 level "recruit" and Fleix is maybe top-50 level. I think, as well, that we as a group like to focus a lot on recruiting, as it is A life-blood of CBB hoops. We tend to forget that, more often than not, these kids coming in usually take time to develop and learn.* So I think there's a bias here that over-antcipates their likely impacts next year. This is why I am not ranking NC@CH and Wake any higher, even though they have great recruits coming in. I don't see NC@CH as any better than 4th in ACC, and Wake, who will have a HC learning the ACC as well, still lower.

I hope some of those ACC rookies develop enough by Feb. to enable the ACC to garner SIX NCAA bids (Duke plus maybe all but one of the first bunch, and then someone jumping up from the second bunch - such as a MD or MIA.

It's a good time to be a Dukie!!

:D :D :D :D



*....When it comes to "how quickly will recruits impact a team's performance?" JC and xfers are clearly a step up, and so I see Felix and Curry being bigger impactors than they would be coming in straight out of HS.

[Slackerb]

How is Felix a "top-50" level recruit.

Felix is graded 3 stars on Rivals and 2 stars on Scout with offers from only Idaho and Kent State. How is that top-50 level talent, or even remotely close. That's a little blue Kool-aid there. He'll be depth at the SF position...and athletic hustle guy at best.

An example of a "top 50" JuCo recruit is Lorenzo Brown for example.

And Curry is a highly sought after transfer, and immediately conjures images of his older brother, but who knows how he'll play against ACC-level talent?

He was the freshman leading scorer at Liberty, but he also posted a paltry 34.7% 3 point percentage and a 41.7% field goal percentage against mostly Big South competition.

I do think he's equivalent to at least a four star and maybe a low 5 star recruit....but I wouldn't be so hasty to call him a top-25 talent yet. He's better suited to contribute for sure with the added maturity though.

Basically, Irving and Curry will be contributers to this team, while Hairston, Thornton and Felix will be role players on the bench at best.

[Duke of Nashville]

How is Felix a "top-50" level recruit.

Felix is graded 3 stars on Rivals and 2 stars on Scout with offers from only Idaho and Kent State. How is that top-50 level talent, or even remotely close. That's a little blue Kool-aid there. He'll be depth at the SF position...and athletic hustle guy at best.

An example of a "top 50" JuCo recruit is Lorenzo Brown for example.

And Curry is a highly sought after transfer, and immediately conjures images of his older brother, but who knows how he'll play against ACC-level talent?

He was the freshman leading scorer at Liberty, but he also posted a paltry 34.7% 3 point percentage and a 41.7% field goal percentage against mostly Big South competition.

I do think he's equivalent to at least a four star and maybe a low 5 star recruit....but I wouldn't be so hasty to call him a top-25 talent yet. He's better suited to contribute for sure with the added maturity though.

Basically, Irving and Curry will be contributers to this team, while Hairston, Thornton and Felix will be role players on the bench at best.


2008-2009 Season (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/player/gamelog?playerId=41546&year=2009)

Vs. Clemson he scored 24
Vs. Virginia he scored 26

[Duvall]

2008-2009 Season (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/player/gamelog?playerId=41546&year=2009)

Vs. Clemson he scored 24
Vs. Virginia he scored 26

A small sample, to be sure, but still two more games played against ACC opposition than any of UNC or NCSU's five-star recruits.

[Jeff Frosh]

Even more impressive when you look at his lines:

at Virginia: 9-17 shooting, 4-8 on 3 pointers in an 86-82 Liberty win
at Clemson: 9-16 shooting, 6-9 on 3's in an 80-75 loss

[Duke of Nashville]

Even more impressive when you look at his lines:

at Virginia: 9-17 shooting, 4-8 on 3 pointers in an 86-82 Liberty win
at Clemson: 9-16 shooting, 6-9 on 3's in an 80-75 loss

That is as efficent as it gets for a freshman and clearly he had the greenlight before the season even started.

[Jeff Frosh]

I guess Liberty played some overtime games his freshman year:

He played MORE THAN 40 minutes five times (50, 48, 44, 44, 43) and exactly40 minutes four other times.

[Slackerb]

Admittedly he lit up UVA and Clemson, but to expect that kind of success day in and day out out of Curry is silly.

He also played 35+ mpg, took almost 17 shots per game, etc. to get the stats he had. He'll not be able to do that at Duke or against ACC competition on a regular basis.

He also had quite a few game of poor shooting....jacking up 9 three point attempts and hitting only 1 or so.

I'm just saying, while he *may* be on par with those 5* high schoolers, let's not tip the other way and count him as an All-ACC performer quite yet.

[roywhite]

How is Felix a "top-50" level recruit.

Felix is graded 3 stars on Rivals and 2 stars on Scout with offers from only Idaho and Kent State. How is that top-50 level talent, or even remotely close. That's a little blue Kool-aid there. He'll be depth at the SF position...and athletic hustle guy at best.

An example of a "top 50" JuCo recruit is Lorenzo Brown for example.

And Curry is a highly sought after transfer, and immediately conjures images of his older brother, but who knows how he'll play against ACC-level talent?

He was the freshman leading scorer at Liberty, but he also posted a paltry 34.7% 3 point percentage and a 41.7% field goal percentage against mostly Big South competition.

I do think he's equivalent to at least a four star and maybe a low 5 star recruit....but I wouldn't be so hasty to call him a top-25 talent yet. He's better suited to contribute for sure with the added maturity though.

Basically, Irving and Curry will be contributers to this team, while Hairston, Thornton and Felix will be role players on the bench at best.

You're making a lot of assumptions here, slackerb.

Curry and Felix are each two years out of high school and are probably not accurately portrayed by their high school star-ratings. Felix was very productive on the junior college level, which is often good competition. Curry has a year at Liberty and participation on the USA Under-19 team.

And we've seen enough of Kyrie Irving and Kendall Marshall to be very skeptical that they're are of similar ability, even if both have the same number of stars from the recruiting services.

Let's see how things work out on the court.

[Slackerb]

Oh I agree completely that talking stars, etc. can be very assumptive and subjective....but what else do we have to do until season begins?

I'm just pointing out that while it's true Felix and Curry benefit from their maturity and experience and get a "rankings bump" from that, they also aren't elite talents exactly.

Also note that State's Lo Brown equally should benefit from the "experience bump" of being a second year players...and he was a highly rated recruit and performed very well in JuCo. Probably one of the top JucO, maybe the top JuCo player in the nation this year.

[roywhite]

Oh I agree completely that talking stars, etc. can be very assumptive and subjective....but what else do we have to do until season begins?

I'm just pointing out that while it's true Felix and Curry benefit from their maturity and experience and get a "rankings bump" from that, they also aren't elite talents exactly.
Also note that State's Lo Brown equally should benefit from the "experience bump" of being a second year players...and he was a highly rated recruit and performed very well in JuCo. Probably one of the top JucO, maybe the top JuCo player in the nation this year.

Okay, my last comment here....

We simply don't know if Felix and Curry are elite talents or not.

It looks like a good recruiting year for the Triangle schools. Reaching some kind of verdict about which group is the best before the season starts is speculative. Let's see how it goes.

[Slackerb]

I speculate that including Curry and Felix, Duke's incoming players match up well with UNC/State, but that if State adds yet another recruit, that they may vault up to the best class in the ACC, even including Curry/Felix.

Scout has them at the #5 in the nation right now, with UNC at #4.

Either way, it's the best Triangle incoming group in a long, long time.

[jimsumner]

"An example of a "top 50" JuCo recruit is Lorenzo Brown for example."

Inasmuch as Lorenzo Brown didn't go to a junior college, I rather suspect he isn't all that good an example.

[Kedsy]

Also note that State's Lo Brown equally should benefit from the "experience bump" of being a second year players...and he was a highly rated recruit and performed very well in JuCo. Probably one of the top JucO, maybe the top JuCo player in the nation this year.

Lorenzo Brown spent this past season as a postgraduate at Hargrave Military Academy. Is that the same as a junior college?

[jimsumner]

Hargrave Military Academy is a private high school. It is not a junior college.

[gofurman]

That is as efficent as it gets for a freshman and clearly he had the greenlight before the season even started.

And that is with Liberty talent around him. You know all Clemson and UVA defense was keyed on him... Certainly ACC defenders will be better than he was used to but these two samples are encouraging as he will not be doubled like I figure he was at Liberty

[Olympic Fan]

An example of a "top 50" JuCo recruit is Lorenzo Brown for example.

And Curry is a highly sought after transfer, and immediately conjures images of his older brother, but who knows how he'll play against ACC-level talent?

He was the freshman leading scorer at Liberty, but he also posted a paltry 34.7% 3 point percentage and a 41.7% field goal percentage against mostly Big South competition.


Not sure I'm arguing with somebody that thinks Lorenzo Brown is a juco player or that 34.7 percent is a "paltry" 3-point percentage for a freshman.

Just to put that number into context, here are the freshmen 3-point percentages of some of Duke's best 3-point shooters in recent years:

Jon Scheyer 36.4 (and 39.8 overall)
Shane Battier 16.7 (over 40 percent his last three years)
Greg Paulus 34.1 (45.0 and 42.3 his next two years)
Kyle Singler 34.0 (39.9 last season)
JJ Redick hit a solid 41.3 from 3-point range as a freshman ... but was 39.3 for his overall FG percentage.

It's true that did that against ACC-level competition, but they also didn't have to do it against opposing defenses that focused on stopping them. Plus, Curry has had the benefit of a year going against the best ACC competition possible -- Scheyer and Smith.

I'm always amazed (and disappointed) at the length some Duke fans go to paint a negative picture. I'm sure it won't matter how good Curry is because K will play him too many minutes or not develop his bench or spend too much time coaching the Olympic team to develop this Duke team.

[jimsumner]

"I'm always amazed (and disappointed) at the length some Duke fans go to paint a negative picture. I'm sure it won't matter how good Curry is because K will play him too many minutes or not develop his bench or spend too much time coaching the Olympic team to develop this Duke team."

Since Wojo can't develop big men, none of this much matters anyway. :)

I think we need to be careful extrapolating Curry at Liberty to Curry at Duke. Curry was Liberty's best player, so other teams focused on him. They won't be able to do that to him at Duke. So, he'll score more.

But because he was Liberty's best player, he took a lot more shots per minute at Liberty then he will take at Duke. So, he won't score as much.

But because he was Liberty's best player, he likely was forced to take bad shots against double-teams, thereby lowering his shooting percentage below what he'll likely shoot at Duke. So, he'll score more.

So, he'll be better at Duke, not as good at Duke and better at Duke. And none of this takes into account the ratio between the improvement of a year's practice against Smith and Scheyer versus the rustiness of sitting out a year, factored into putting on ten or so pounds of muscle and playing with better teammates against better opponents.

So, none of us KNOW for certain what Curry will do at Duke. But the best available evidence suggests that he'll be a pretty good player next season, likely better the year after that and better still the year after that.

I'm repeating myself but I expect something next year similar to Billy McCaffrey, circa 1991, 11-12 ppg and 20-25 mpg off the bench, a substantial contributor to a very, very good college basketball team.

I'll take that.

[MChambers]

I'm repeating myself but I expect something next year similar to Billy McCaffrey, circa 1991, 11-12 ppg and 20-25 mpg off the bench, a substantial contributor to a very, very good college basketball team.

I'll take that.

Sounds good to me!

[Slackerb]

Not sure I'm arguing with somebody that thinks Lorenzo Brown is a juco player or that 34.7 percent is a "paltry" 3-point percentage for a freshman.

Just to put that number into context, here are the freshmen 3-point percentages of some of Duke's best 3-point shooters in recent years:

Jon Scheyer 36.4 (and 39.8 overall)
Shane Battier 16.7 (over 40 percent his last three years)
Greg Paulus 34.1 (45.0 and 42.3 his next two years)
Kyle Singler 34.0 (39.9 last season)
JJ Redick hit a solid 41.3 from 3-point range as a freshman ... but was 39.3 for his overall FG percentage.

It's true that did that against ACC-level competition, but they also didn't have to do it against opposing defenses that focused on stopping them. Plus, Curry has had the benefit of a year going against the best ACC competition possible -- Scheyer and Smith.

I'm always amazed (and disappointed) at the length some Duke fans go to paint a negative picture. I'm sure it won't matter how good Curry is because K will play him too many minutes or not develop his bench or spend too much time coaching the Olympic team to develop this Duke team.

JuCo....prep school. Is there a lot of difference between a post-graduate year at a prep school and a year at a community college?

and it's easy to cite examples of players that start with a lower 3-pt percentage and improve....but not all do. I'm just saying, it's not like Curry was an efficient scorer at Liberty, it's that he had a lot of opportunity. Duke's Team average last year was 38.7% even with Plumlee and Ryan Kelly's bad shooting. It's the equivalent of Larry Drew II or Dennis Horner's percentages this year. Maybe not paltry, but hardly awe-inspiring.

Just sayin' don't count on Seth dropping 3's like Stephen and scoring more than 10-12 ppg.

[roywhite]

JuCo....prep school. Is there a lot of difference between a post-graduate year at a prep school and a year at a community college?

and it's easy to cite examples of players that start with a lower 3-pt percentage and improve....but not all do. I'm just saying, it's not like Curry was an efficient scorer at Liberty, it's that he had a lot of opportunity. Duke's Team average last year was 38.7% even with Plumlee and Ryan Kelly's bad shooting. It's the equivalent of Larry Drew II or Dennis Horner's percentages this year. Maybe not paltry, but hardly awe-inspiring.

Just sayin' don't count on Seth dropping 3's like Stephen and scoring more than 10-12 ppg.

1. Junior college and a year at prep school are different; junior college counts against 4-year college eligibility, while the prep school does not.

2. Seth Curry's most recent competition was with the Under-19 USA National team in the U-19 World Championships. He had the most 3-pointers made on the USA team and shot 39.6% from 3-pt range. Pretty good level of competition and achievement, I'd say.

http://www.usabasketball.com/men/2009/09_mu19_stats/USA.HTM

Things might go a little easier if you would identify points as "your opinion" or "I believe."

[jimsumner]

"JuCo....prep school. Is there a lot of difference between a post-graduate year at a prep school and a year at a community college?"

Yes. There is.

[Slackerb]

Is there a lot of difference between coursework and level of competition? Anything besides eligibility?

Also, while Curry shot well from 3 at the U-19, his other stats were meh. 41% from the floor, 2 rpg, .5 apg, 2 TO/pg, 9 ppg. Good, but not amazing.

[ThePublisher]

I believe we have a great class coming in. If only there was a Z'esque guy, but I believe mason and miles will fill the void. I think Curry is probably going to be a prolific scorer in the ACC. NBA scouts project him to be better than his brother b/c he is more athletic and more of a pure point. Expect him to come off the bench behind Irving and at the 2, and be a big time contributor.

I saw a youtube clip of Carrick where he dunked the ball from one step in front of the foul line. There should be some PT for a guy like that, especially against CJ Leslie's athleticism.

As far as state goes. They will obviously be much improved. If Sid the kid can manage these guys (since they're all friends it shouldn't be too bad) and the rest of the team isn't pissed they stole the spotlight state should be a top 4 team next year. Depending on how they develop, they may challenge vt and unc for that second spot.

However it goes, 2010/11 will be an excellent year for Duke basketball.
And I am already pumped for the run to another championship.

[jimsumner]

"Is there a lot of difference between coursework and level of competition? Anything besides eligibility?"

Yes. Carrick Felix played against a much higher-level of competition than did Lorenzo Brown. Older, more physically mature players. Most jucos were high-school stars a couple of years earlier. Some go the juco route to improve academics, some to transition to a different position, some to increase exposure.

The quality of play in the junior-college ranks can be quite high. The better teams tend to be out west, although there are exceptions; Tallahassee Community College was quite good this year.

But disabuse yourself of the notion that Carrick Felix spent the last year twiddling his thumbs out in the middle of nowhere. Junior college coaches know what they're doing.

[MisterRoddy]

Well, with both Tracy Smith and Malcolm Delaney returning it looks like the Top 4 in the ACC next year will be

Duke, NC State, Va. Tech, and UNC

What order do you guys see the 3 teams not named Duke in?

[Kedsy]

Well, with both Tracy Smith and Malcolm Delaney returning it looks like the Top 4 in the ACC next year will be

Duke, NC State, Va. Tech, and UNC

What order do you guys see the 3 teams not named Duke in?

I think you named the order correctly. However, I also think Miami will be making a run at the upper division, and I know I'm in the minority there.

[MisterRoddy]

I think you named the order correctly. However, I also think Miami will be making a run at the upper division, and I know I'm in the minority there.

If Durand Scott can make a bid for ACC POY and at least 2 other players (Reggie Johnson and Malcolm Grant?) I can see them possibly getting into that upper echelon in the ACC

[houstondukie]

Well, with both Tracy Smith and Malcolm Delaney returning it looks like the Top 4 in the ACC next year will be

Duke, NC State, Va. Tech, and UNC

What order do you guys see the 3 teams not named Duke in?

Not sure NC state is better than FSU.

After DUKE, I think Virginia Tech is the best bet for #2.

Here is VT's 6-man rotation and note the experience:

Starters:
M. Delaney - Senior - 6’3 190
T. Bell - Senior - 6’6 205
D. Hudson - Senior - 6’5 220
J. Allen - Senior - 6’7 230
V. Davila - Junior - 6’8 245

6th man:
J.T. Thompson - Senior - 6’6 210

After Duke and VT, I think unc, FSU, and NC State round out the top 5.

[Big Pappa]

I think you named the order correctly. However, I also think Miami will be making a run at the upper division, and I know I'm in the minority there.

I can def see Miami there as well. If the NC State freshman are as good as advertised they will be right behind Duke. I think Va Tech is next with UNC just edging out Miami.

[-bdbd]

Not sure NC state is better than FSU.

After DUKE, I think Virginia Tech is the best bet for #2.

Here is VT's 6-man rotation and note the experience:

Starters:
M. Delaney - Senior - 6’3 190
T. Bell - Senior - 6’6 205
D. Hudson - Senior - 6’5 220
J. Allen - Senior - 6’7 230
V. Davila - Junior - 6’8 245

6th man:
J.T. Thompson - Senior - 6’6 210

After Duke and VT, I think unc, FSU, and NC State round out the top 5.

We're more or less in agreement. With Delaney back I think the media consensus should be for VPI to be preseason #2. (I sure hope that they deliver, just to see them finish, for once, in the ACC top-2.) I see NCSU and UNC battling it out for 3rd/4th, with the edge to the boys from Raleigh b/c they'll be not quite as reliant as NC@CH on the rookies, and with better chemistry/leadership at least to start. I see Miami and FSU duking it out for 5th place. Wake, MD, Clemson, GT in the second grouping. It looks to me that UVA and BC could be fighting to avoid "perfect records" (not the good kind!) .

It's a great year to be a Dukie. I keep saying, the heel fans might want to focus their energies on FB this year...


;)

[ice-9]

Duke, VA Tech, UNC, NC State, Miami

Senior chemistry and experience trumps freshmen talent. UNC's coaching and talent trumps NC State's. Miami will win and lose a few surprises, but overall will be quite good.

I also think Wake Forest will surprise. Expectations are low given the new coach's recent track record, but the man can coach and he has some talent to work with.

[diesel]

What's the outlook for our wannabe rivals, Maryland, next year? And when do they start losing scholarships because of their 8% graduation rate?

[Indoor66]

I think unc has been consistently overrated in this thread. I see them in the bottom half of the ACC next year.

[Big Pappa]

I think unc has been consistently overrated in this thread. I see them in the bottom half of the ACC next year.

It is surely possible. It really just comes down to how good HB really is. I think that he is good enough to put them on his back and win enough games to finish 4th or 5th in the ACC.

[MarkD83]

I agree with the consensus grouping of teams in the upper division

Duke, VT, NCSU, FSU, Miami and perhaps UNC.

Unfortunately, it may come down to the unbalanced schedule. Is there a place to see how the schedule is alligned for next year? I am not concerned about when the games are, but the list of teams Duke and the other teams play 2x vs 1x.

[sandinmyshoes]

With the way things have shaken out in the post season, after us, it looks like a potential blood bath to settle 2-5 in the standings. I can't even begin to sort it all out because of all the variables revolving around how injuries, the unbalanced scheduling, coaching changes and player development might play out across the season.

It should be an exceptionally intense season. I do not like to rush time, but I'm ready for October!

[ChicagoCrazy84]

It is surely possible. It really just comes down to how good HB really is. I think that he is good enough to put them on his back and win enough games to finish 4th or 5th in the ACC.


Yeah, its difficult to predict UNC this year. Everyone assumes last year was an illusion and they will be back this year, but they're asking a lot from their freshmen and they don't have all that much depth. I could see Barnes putting up Kevin Durant type numbers, but I can also see him putting up a respectable 12ppg and 7rpg. I think they'll need closer to the former from him to be near the top of the ACC.

[CDu]

What's the outlook for our wannabe rivals, Maryland, next year? And when do they start losing scholarships because of their 8% graduation rate?

They lose their three best players, including the ACC PoY and both of their two PGs (the only two on the roster). They have a solid but not great recruiting class coming in. Unless Tucker, Bowie, Mosley, and/or Williams make big jumps next year, I think it's going to be a rough year for them. It's very hard to replace your entire backcourt and your best baseline player.

[Indoor66]

Yeah, its difficult to predict UNC this year. Everyone assumes last year was an illusion and they will be back this year, but they're asking a lot from their freshmen and they don't have all that much depth. I could see Barnes putting up Kevin Durant type numbers, but I can also see him putting up a respectable 12ppg and 7rpg. I think they'll need closer to the former from him to be near the top of the ACC.

Very few freshmen EVER lead their teams. Notice that the same few names keep coming up.

I would expect Barnes to be in the 12-14ppg range and 6-7.5rpg. After that, where is the offense coming from? Where is the defense coming from? How many freshmen are ready to play ACC level defense on a consistent basis?

unc has too many holes to fill. :eek:

[Olympic Fan]

I wish I could agree with you guys about the order of finish, but as much as I hate to do it, I've still got to project UNC as the No. 2 team in my preseason poll.

I do that with a strong caveat -- they will be a very fragile team. They will be extremely thin in the post (both literally and depth-wise ... even if they add Jack, he's a stringbean too). Plus, they have an issue at point guard -- how much better will Drew be? And how suited for Roy's offense is Marshall?

On then other hand, they simply have more talent than any of the other second-place contenders. Barnes is a great player. Henson would have been a lottery pick if he had come out this year (I know that's potential, but that potentional is there). Bullock will be a pro. I think Zeller and Strickland have a chance to be really good college players.

Next year will be a real test of Ol' Roy and his coaching ability. He clearly screwed uo last year's team, but over the course of 20 years, he's been very effective. As bad as he was last year, he did a very good job with a young team in 2006. Maybe I'm too used to Coach K's ability to shape his teams to fit his teams (and to re-shape them at midseason as he has done so often, including the national championship teams of 2001 and 2010). I can't help thinking of what K would do with a team that's loaded with wings, including a player as talented and as vesatile as Barnes. It would be easy to see Barnes play a role like Kyle's freshman season.

Just think for a moment -- that team had Singler and Lance Thomas on the interior; Paulus played point guard (backed up by freshman Nolan Smith) -- Nelson, Scheyer and Henderson were on the wings ... and it won 28 games, finished No. 9 in the nation and second in the ACC. Is that so different that Barnes and Henson in the post and what UNC will have at the point and on the wing?

Of course, that supposes that Roy can put them all together and that Barnes will accept a role that has him as at least a pseudo-post player (as Kyle did as a freshman). It will be interesting.

I have caveats about the other contenders for No. 2 too.

Virginia Tech obviously has everybody back, plus Chaney (a 6-9 Florida transfer who sat out last season), but how good were they a year ago? And how much was their gaudy record a result of a weak schedule (and the easiest possible ACC schedule)?

N.C. State adds a bunch of talented young players -- and I love Ryan Harrow (the second-best PG coming into the league). Leslie is undoubtedly talented, but there is a reason that a lot of big-time coaches kept him at arm's length. And, of course, there's always the issue of Sidney -- this is the year we find out if he can coach.

FSU loses a gifted center in Alabi and still has to find a perimeter scorer. I know they still have plenty of big-man options (we'll see if Xavier Gibson is as talented as the FSU coaches think), but unless Ian Miller is better than projected and/or Michael Snaer blows up, they'll be offensively crippled again.

I think those are the four main contenders for second place. I love Durand Scott at Miami and Reggie Johnson has potential inside, but I can't see them making THAT big a jump.

So I guess I see the top of the league:

1. Duke
<
2. UNC
3. Virginia Tech
4. N.C. State
5. Florida State
<
6. Miami
<
7. Clemson
8. Maryland
9. Georgia Tech
<
10. Wake Forest
11. Virginia
12. Boston College

[sandinmyshoes]

I think the UNC equation comes down to will their probable improvement in shooting the ball from the perimeter be enough to overcome their now thin (in all possible meanings of the word) front court.

They also have the athletes there to become a better defensive team. But they still lack a defensive stopper on the perimeter. Unless they develop one, it's hard to see them getting any higher in the standings than maybe fifth place.


In re-watching the McDonalds and Jordan brand games, I noticed that Bullock looks like he could become a very good defender. I'd been thinking of him as just a shooter. But he has quick hands, feet and long arms. The thing is, though, how often is a freshman ever a lockdown defender? There is so much "team" in a college defense it's difficult to imagine a freshman as a team's stopper.


So I would expect UNC to have a season where they can beat just about anyone when they're shots are falling from the arc. They'll have some surprising wins, and some surprising losses. I have them pegged for maybe fifth place. Though, truth is, I think it'll be so bunched up in the middle that there will be a lot of ties in the standings behind the Devils.

[sandinmyshoes]

I wish I could agree with you guys about the order of finish, but as much as I hate to do it, I've still got to project UNC as the No. 2 team in my preseason poll.

I do that with a strong caveat -- they will be a very fragile team. They will be extremely thin in the post (both literally and depth-wise ... even if they add Jack, he's a stringbean too). Plus, they have an issue at point guard -- how much better will Drew be? And how suited for Roy's offense is Marshall?

On then other hand, they simply have more talent than any of the other second-place contenders. Barnes is a great player. Henson would have been a lottery pick if he had come out this year (I know that's potential, but that potentional is there). Bullock will be a pro. I think Zeller and Strickland have a chance to be really good college players.

Next year will be a real test of Ol' Roy and his coaching ability. He clearly screwed uo last year's team, but over the course of 20 years, he's been very effective. As bad as he was last year, he did a very good job with a young team in 2006. Maybe I'm too used to Coach K's ability to shape his teams to fit his teams (and to re-shape them at midseason as he has done so often, including the national championship teams of 2001 and 2010). I can't help thinking of what K would do with a team that's loaded with wings, including a player as talented and as vesatile as Barnes. It would be easy to see Barnes play a role like Kyle's freshman season.

Just think for a moment -- that team had Singler and Lance Thomas on the interior; Paulus played point guard (backed up by freshman Nolan Smith) -- Nelson, Scheyer and Henderson were on the wings ... and it won 28 games, finished No. 9 in the nation and second in the ACC. Is that so different that Barnes and Henson in the post and what UNC will have at the point and on the wing?

Of course, that supposes that Roy can put them all together and that Barnes will accept a role that has him as at least a pseudo-post player (as Kyle did as a freshman). It will be interesting.

I have caveats about the other contenders for No. 2 too.

Virginia Tech obviously has everybody back, plus Chaney (a 6-9 Florida transfer who sat out last season), but how good were they a year ago? And how much was their gaudy record a result of a weak schedule (and the easiest possible ACC schedule)?

N.C. State adds a bunch of talented young players -- and I love Ryan Harrow (the second-best PG coming into the league). Leslie is undoubtedly talented, but there is a reason that a lot of big-time coaches kept him at arm's length. And, of course, there's always the issue of Sidney -- this is the year we find out if he can coach.

FSU loses a gifted center in Alabi and still has to find a perimeter scorer. I know they still have plenty of big-man options (we'll see if Xavier Gibson is as talented as the FSU coaches think), but unless Ian Miller is better than projected and/or Michael Snaer blows up, they'll be offensively crippled again.

I think those are the four main contenders for second place. I love Durand Scott at Miami and Reggie Johnson has potential inside, but I can't see them making THAT big a jump.

So I guess I see the top of the league:

1. Duke
<
2. UNC
3. Virginia Tech
4. N.C. State
5. Florida State
<
6. Miami
<
7. Clemson
8. Maryland
9. Georgia Tech
<
10. Wake Forest
11. Virginia
12. Boston College

While I think you have UNC ranked too high, that's a pretty well thought out assessment. One thing about college basketball is that the final league standings might not mirror the actual quality of the teams by the end of the season. We've all seen how some teams sputter then suddenly "get it" and finish the season as a better tream than some ahead of them in the standings.

[arbee]

I agree with the consensus grouping of teams in the upper division

Duke, VT, NCSU, FSU, Miami and perhaps UNC.

Unfortunately, it may come down to the unbalanced schedule. Is there a place to see how the schedule is alligned for next year? I am not concerned about when the games are, but the list of teams Duke and the other teams play 2x vs 1x.

You can see how the schedule is aligned for next year, here:
http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/acc/sports/m-baskbl/auto_pdf/model-three-years.pdf

[MarkD83]

You can see how the schedule is aligned for next year, here:
http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/acc/sports/m-baskbl/auto_pdf/model-three-years.pdf

Thanks for the info.

If I read this right VT should be the 2nd place team because theiy play the following teams 2 times each next year: UVA, BC, GT, Md and WF. They also play Duke, FSU and Miami at home. So in the grouping that everyone has at the top, VT only plays 5 games.

[gumbomoop]

Without subjecting next season's ACC unbalanced mess to careful analysis, here's a quick thought.

There's a general early consensus on this [and other meandering] thread[s] that the top 1/2 of ACC next season will be: Duke, VaT, NCS, UNC, FSU, Miami. I'm talking consensus, not unanimity, and the 6 wouldn't necessarily be in exactly the order I listed, but close.

Anyhow, I'd appreciate some other posters confirming or correcting my astonishment at VaT's good luck. The Hokies get none of the other 5 putative top 1/2 teams I listed above as their H/A "partners" in '10-'11. None. None. Further, they get 3 of the 5 consensus at home-only, and but 2 [UNC and NCS] as away-only.

Am I totally off-base in tentatively thinking that the unbalanced mess is going to work very much to VaT's benefit? Not that they don't deserve a break.

Edit: I see that MarkD83 [above] has reached the same conclusion!

[1Devil]

Without subjecting next season's ACC unbalanced mess to careful analysis, here's a quick thought.

There's a general early consensus on this [and other meandering] thread[s] that the top 1/2 of ACC next season will be: Duke, VaT, NCS, UNC, FSU, Miami. I'm talking consensus, not unanimity, and the 6 wouldn't necessarily be in exactly the order I listed, but close.

Anyhow, I'd appreciate some other posters confirming or correcting my astonishment at VaT's good luck. The Hokies get none of the other 5 putative top 1/2 teams I listed above as their H/A "partners" in '10-'11. None. None. Further, they get 3 of the 5 consensus at home-only, and but 2 [UNC and NCS] as away-only.

Am I totally off-base in tentatively thinking that the unbalanced mess is going to work very much to VaT's benefit? Not that they don't deserve a break.

Edit: I see that MarkD83 [above] has reached the same conclusion!


VaTech deserves a break why? Anyway, the unbalanced schedule is a joke, and it renders the regular season standings meaningless (at least if a weaker-scheduled team finishes on top). Split into 2 divisions. Play each team in your division twice and each team in the other division once. Is that really so difficult?

[ACCBBallFan]

I wish I could agree with you guys about the order of finish, but as much as I hate to do it, I've still got to project UNC as the No. 2 team in my preseason poll.

I do that with a strong caveat -- they will be a very fragile team. They will be extremely thin in the post (both literally and depth-wise ... even if they add Jack, he's a stringbean too). Plus, they have an issue at point guard -- how much better will Drew be? And how suited for Roy's offense is Marshall?

On then other hand, they simply have more talent than any of the other second-place contenders. Barnes is a great player. Henson would have been a lottery pick if he had come out this year (I know that's potential, but that potentional is there). Bullock will be a pro. I think Zeller and Strickland have a chance to be really good college players.

Next year will be a real test of Ol' Roy and his coaching ability. He clearly screwed uo last year's team, but over the course of 20 years, he's been very effective. As bad as he was last year, he did a very good job with a young team in 2006. Maybe I'm too used to Coach K's ability to shape his teams to fit his teams (and to re-shape them at midseason as he has done so often, including the national championship teams of 2001 and 2010). I can't help thinking of what K would do with a team that's loaded with wings, including a player as talented and as vesatile as Barnes. It would be easy to see Barnes play a role like Kyle's freshman season.

Just think for a moment -- that team had Singler and Lance Thomas on the interior; Paulus played point guard (backed up by freshman Nolan Smith) -- Nelson, Scheyer and Henderson were on the wings ... and it won 28 games, finished No. 9 in the nation and second in the ACC. Is that so different that Barnes and Henson in the post and what UNC will have at the point and on the wing?

Of course, that supposes that Roy can put them all together and that Barnes will accept a role that has him as at least a pseudo-post player (as Kyle did as a freshman). It will be interesting.

I have caveats about the other contenders for No. 2 too.

Virginia Tech obviously has everybody back, plus Chaney (a 6-9 Florida transfer who sat out last season), but how good were they a year ago? And how much was their gaudy record a result of a weak schedule (and the easiest possible ACC schedule)?

N.C. State adds a bunch of talented young players -- and I love Ryan Harrow (the second-best PG coming into the league). Leslie is undoubtedly talented, but there is a reason that a lot of big-time coaches kept him at arm's length. And, of course, there's always the issue of Sidney -- this is the year we find out if he can coach.

FSU loses a gifted center in Alabi and still has to find a perimeter scorer. I know they still have plenty of big-man options (we'll see if Xavier Gibson is as talented as the FSU coaches think), but unless Ian Miller is better than projected and/or Michael Snaer blows up, they'll be offensively crippled again.

I think those are the four main contenders for second place. I love Durand Scott at Miami and Reggie Johnson has potential inside, but I can't see them making THAT big a jump.

So I guess I see the top of the league:

1. Duke
<
2. UNC
3. Virginia Tech
4. N.C. State
5. Florida State
<
6. Miami
<
7. Clemson
8. Maryland
9. Georgia Tech
<
10. Wake Forest
11. Virginia
12. Boston College

For purposes of assessing ACC unbalanced schedule, I used your weights with one adjustment. I moved BC who has a ton of returning upperclassmen despite one defector and a new coach, to #5 just behind FSU and ahead of Miami. I then bumped everybody else down one.

Clearly the most favorable ACC unbalanced schedule is VA Tech (would have been even more favoarbale had I left BC last) and the most unfavorable is UNC (not quite as bad if I had not adjusted BC). So you might want to at least swap to # 2 VA Tech and #3 UNC in the standings:

17 - VA Tech (#3) (UVA, BC, GA T, MD and Wake)

24 - GA Tech (#10) (Clemson, Wake, Miami, UVA and VA T)

31 - Duke (#1) (UNC, MD, Miami, NC St, UVA)
32 - BC (#6)
32 - MD (#9)
33 - FSU (#5)

34 - Wake (#11)
35 - Miami (#7)
36 - UVA (#12)

37 - Clemson (#8) (GA T, FSU, Miami, UNC, NC St)
38 - NC St (#4) (UNC, WF, Clem, Duke, FSU)

41 - UNC (#2) (Duke, NC ST, BC, Clemson, FSU)

With the seocnd most favorable schedule, GA Tech may place better than 10th too.

[camion]

It's interesting that Va Tech also had the easiest schedule this past year, playing each of the bottom four teams twice.

[gumbomoop]

For purposes of assessing ACC unbalanced schedule, I used your weights with one adjustment. I moved BC who has a ton of returning upperclassmen despite one defector and a new coach, to #5 just behind FSU and ahead of Miami. I then bumped everybody else down one.

Clearly the most favorable ACC unbalanced schedule is VA Tech (would have been even more favoarbale had I left BC last) and the most unfavorable is UNC (not quite as bad if I had not adjusted BC). So you might want to at least swap to # 2 VA Tech and #3 UNC in the standings:

17 - VA Tech (#3) (UVA, BC, GA T, MD and Wake)

24 - GA Tech (#10) (Clemson, Wake, Miami, UVA and VA T)

31 - Duke (#1) (UNC, MD, Miami, NC St, UVA)
32 - BC (#6)
32 - MD (#9)
33 - FSU (#5)

34 - Wake (#11)
35 - Miami (#7)
36 - UVA (#12)

37 - Clemson (#8) (GA T, FSU, Miami, UNC, NC St)
38 - NC St (#4) (UNC, WF, Clem, Duke, FSU)

41 - UNC (#2) (Duke, NC ST, BC, Clemson, FSU)

With the seocnd most favorable schedule, GA Tech may place better than 10th too.

As one annually over-irritated by unbalanced mess, I appreciate your work in this area. I must say I'm very surprised at your pushing BC way up to #6! Now, about the only quibble I had with OlympicFan's equally valuable analysis was placing BC last. I'd have them more like 8-9, trying to take into account their experience but playing for a new coach, new system, etc. I guess BC may be the biggest wildcard in attempting the kind of analysis you've done here.

So, just in case you can re-run your numbers with BC at, say, 8, how about it? OTOH, if it's either too much work, or if you think no way BC should be ranked that low, never mind. [But, too, if no way that low, you must think OF went temporarily insane on BC......]

Oh, wait, I propose even more work for you: I know you did this stuff beginning of last season [because I remember your convincing me that I had overstated the difficulty of Duke's draw], but I don't remember whether you also took into account the H-only and A-only opponents of each ACC team. Nor would I remember how you'd calculate the H/A advantage/disadvantage.

[-jk]

Just for fun, Giglio's projected starting lineups (http://blogs.newsobserver.com/accnow/projected-hoops-lineups-for-2010-11) in the ACC, and his Preseason All-ACC teams:

First team
G Malcolm Delaney, VT
G Durand Scott, Miami
G Nolan Smith, Duke
F Chris Singleton, FSU
F Kyle Singler, Duke

Second team
G Seth Curry, Duke
G Reggie Jackson, BC
F Harrison Barnes, UNC
F Jordan Williams, Maryland
F Tracy Smith, N.C. State

-jk

[ACCBBallFan]

As one annually over-irritated by unbalanced mess, I appreciate your work in this area. I must say I'm very surprised at your pushing BC way up to #6! Now, about the only quibble I had with OlympicFan's equally valuable analysis was placing BC last. I'd have them more like 8-9, trying to take into account their experience but playing for a new coach, new system, etc. I guess BC may be the biggest wildcard in attempting the kind of analysis you've done here.

So, just in case you can re-run your numbers with BC at, say, 8, how about it? OTOH, if it's either too much work, or if you think no way BC should be ranked that low, never mind. [But, too, if no way that low, you must think OF went temporarily insane on BC......]

Oh, wait, I propose even more work for you: I know you did this stuff beginning of last season [because I remember your convincing me that I had overstated the difficulty of Duke's draw], but I don't remember whether you also took into account the H-only and A-only opponents of each ACC team. Nor would I remember how you'd calculate the H/A advantage/disadvantage.

On your last point, on the once only's I look at it but do not try to quantify the impact. So called wasted hom games vs. a bottom quadrant team and also if you are going to lose to Duke anyway, might as well do it on the road and not waste an opportunity for a win at home.

The only team with two top 4 ACC ranked teams in home only games was UVA with UNC and NC St.

The only team with none was Duke hosting BC, Clemson and GA Tech.

What matters more though is probably relativity, wanting to play teams close to you in standigs at home, and conversely not wanting to play teams close to you on road.

Several teams had two bottom 4 teams away (prior to adjusting BC as you suggested):

Clemson @ MD and @ UVA
FSU @ GA T and @ MD
UNC @ GA T and @ UVA
NC St @ MD and @ UVA

Several teams play none of the bottom 4 on road: BC, GA T, Miami, VA T and WF.

The adjsuted standings whoich average Olympics Fan's placement of BC 12th and mine 2 6th, using these weights. (Actually the weight is 13 - the standings placement such that a team playing UVA gets +1 and a team playing Duke gets +12):

6 - Miami (weight of 7)
7- Clemson (weight of 6)
8 - MD (weight of 5)
9 - BC (weight of 4)

result in VA Tech having the easiest possible playing all 5 bottom teams twice:

15 - VA Tech (#3 in standings)

26 - GA Tech (#10)
29 - MD (#8)

33 - Duke (#1)
33 - Miami (#6)
34 - BC (#9)
34 - UVA (#12)
35 - FSU (#5)
35 - WF (#11)

38 - Clemson (#7)
39 - NC St (#4)
39 - UNC (#2)

So of the teams likely to challenge Duke for #1 in ACC, VA Tech has by far the easiest scheule while UNC and NC St have toughest ACC unbalanced schedules, some of which resutls from having to play Duke twice.

[gumbomoop]

On your last point, on the once only's I look at it but do not try to quantify the impact. So called wasted hom games vs. a bottom quadrant team and also if you are going to lose to Duke anyway, might as well do it on the road and not waste an opportunity for a win at home.

The only team with two top 4 ACC ranked teams in home only games was UVA with UNC and NC St.

The only team with none was Duke hosting BC, Clemson and GA Tech.

What matters more though is probably relativity, wanting to play teams close to you in standigs at home, and conversely not wanting to play teams close to you on road.

Several teams had two bottom 4 teams away (prior to adjusting BC as you suggested):

Clemson @ MD and @ UVA
FSU @ GA T and @ MD
UNC @ GA T and @ UVA
NC St @ MD and @ UVA

Several teams play none of the bottom 4 on road: BC, GA T, Miami, VA T and WF.

The adjsuted standings whoich average Olympics Fan's placement of BC 12th and mine 2 6th, using these weights. (Actually the weight is 13 - the standings placement such that a team playing UVA gets +1 and a team playing Duke gets +12):

6 - Miami (weight of 7)
7- Clemson (weight of 6)
8 - MD (weight of 5)
9 - BC (weight of 4)

result in VA Tech having the easiest possible playing all 5 bottom teams twice:

15 - VA Tech (#3 in standings)

26 - GA Tech (#10)
29 - MD (#8)

33 - Duke (#1)
33 - Miami (#6)
34 - BC (#9)
34 - UVA (#12)
35 - FSU (#5)
35 - WF (#11)

38 - Clemson (#7)
39 - NC St (#4)
39 - UNC (#2)

So of the teams likely to challenge Duke for #1 in ACC, VA Tech has by far the easiest scheule while UNC and NC St have toughest ACC unbalanced schedules, some of which resutls from having to play Duke twice.

Thanks for again going above and beyond, particularly since it's my call to your duty.

I hope you remember to re-post this sometime in Oct-Nov, just to remind me not to go all paranoid and kvetch over Duke's draw.

That VT draw is strikingly easy, on paper. Should be worth an extra win or 2, which ought to get them to 2d. Maybe even challenge Duke, but I'd still think that's a stretch. We'll know [not] soon enough.

[ACCBBallFan]

When I factor in the standings discussed in this thread plus the Giglio predictions jk provided plus another even earlier ACC prediction I had seen on cameronkrazy.wordpress.com/2010/04/30/2010-2011-very-early-acc-preview/

a consensus starts to emerge:

Standings where max = 36 and min = 3

36 - Duke (#1, SOS = 6th most favorable below)

31 - UNC (#2, SOS = 12, the most difficult unbalanced schedule)
29 - VA Tech (#3, SOS =1, so may leap past UNC for #2)
28 - FSU (#4, SOS = 3 so again may challenge UNC #3)

26 - NC St (#5, SOS tied 8-11 so not likely to advance beyond 5th )

19 - MD (#6, SOS=3-4 but too big a gap to catch NC St)
18 - Miami (#7, SOS = 5 so no movement likely, other than battle with MD for 6-7)

14 - BC (8, SOS =7)
12 - Clemson (9, SOS tied 8-11 but virtually same as BC #7, so potential 8-9 battle all year long)

08 - GA Tech (10, SOS = 2 which may help keep them ahead of UVA and WF, but not likely to bridge the big gap to catch Clemson or BC)

07 - UVA (11, SOS tied 8-11, so no help)
06 - WF (12, SOS tied 8-11 so no help)

The resultant ACC strength of Schedule using these standings to form the weights is:

18 - VA Tech (#3 in standings #1 in easiest unbalanced schedule)

23 - GA Tech (#10 and #2 SOS)

30 - FSU (#4 and #3-4 SOS)
30 - MD (#6 and #3-4 SOS )

33 - Miami (#7 and #5 SOS)
34 - Duke (#1 and # 6 SOS)

36 - BC (#8 and #7 SOS)
37 - Clemson (#9 and #8-11 SOS)
37 - NC St (#5 and #8-11 SOS)
37 - UVA (#11 and #8-11 SOS)
37 - WF (#12 and #8-11 SOS)
38 - UNC (#2 and #12 SOS)

which does not give a lot of hope to any of the cellar dwellers other than GA Tech.

For the most part, middle of the pack standings teams also have middle of the road ACC unbalanced schedules.

As far as teams chasing Duke, VA tech and FSU have decidedly more favorable unbalanced ACC Schedules than UNC or NC State.

SO ACC unbalanced schedule may solidify the consensus standings above but not likely to affect it much other than relative placements of 2-4 UNC, VA Tech and FSU.

VA Tech only plays Duke once and that is at home. Ditto for FSU whereas UNC obviously plays Duke home and home, as does NC St among the top 5 ACC teams.

[ACCBBallFan]

Just for fun, Giglio's projected starting lineups (http://blogs.newsobserver.com/accnow/projected-hoops-lineups-for-2010-11) in the ACC, and his Preseason All-ACC teams:

First team
G Malcolm Delaney, VT
G Durand Scott, Miami
G Nolan Smith, Duke
F Chris Singleton, FSU
F Kyle Singler, Duke

Second team
G Seth Curry, Duke
G Reggie Jackson, BC
F Harrison Barnes, UNC
F Jordan Williams, Maryland
F Tracy Smith, N.C. State

-jk

Thanks, jk.

Regarding Giglio's lineups, they are fairly close to what the blog at word press had, when adjusted for Delaney and Tracy Smith returns.

cameronkrazy.wordpress.com/2010/04/30/2010-2011-very-early-acc-preview/

that site also had an error as Ryan Reid has used his 4 years of eligibility.

NC State has most volatility across the two sets of predictions which two of Harrow, Gonzalez and Dorenzo Brown if he qualifies and also which two of Wood, Howell and CJ Leslie to pair with Tracy Smith.

I tend to agree with Giglio that Milton Jennings starts over Brian Narcisse.

Giglio has Bullock, wordpress had Graves.

Giglio surprisingly had Desrosiers over both Woods and Walker and also Chennault over Terrell.

Giglio had Curry in 3 small instead of Miles with Singler at PF. Lots of good arguments both ways on that, as well as for Kelly over a Plumlee and it may vary by opponents, who practiced well, for motivation, etc. Coach K has plenty of experience managing egos and PT from Team USA.

Giglio has Mo Miller instead of Rice and Holsey instead of the Dan Miller.

On UVA Giglio also had Evans over Jones and James Johnson over Sene.

For BC Giglio had some surprises Elmore over Biko Paris and Revenel over Josh Southern.

With respect to big men:

BC - Revenel 6'8" 255; Southern 6' 10" 248 Trapani 6'8" 228

Clemson - Booker 6'8" 235; Grant 6'8" 220 Jennings 6'9" 225

Duke - Miles 6'10" 240; Mason 6'10" 230; Kelly 6'10" 220

FSU - Gibson 6'11" 240; Singleton 6'9"227

GA Tech - Sheehan 7' 235; Dan Miller 6'11" 252

MD - Jordan Williams 6'10" 260 Dino Gregory 6'7" 230

Miami -Johnson 6'10" 295; Gamble 6'9" 255

NC St - Tracy Smith 6'8" 247; R Howell 6'8" 266; CJ Leslie 6'8" 190

UNC - Zeller 7' 240; Henson 6'10" 195+; Graves 6'6" 240

UVA - Sene 7'1" 234; Scott 6'8" 239; James Johnson 6'8" 210

VA Tech - Davilla 6'8" 245' Jeff Allen 6'7" 230; Raines 6'9" 238

Wake - Weaver 6'11" 250; Woods 6'11" 245; Desrosiers 6'11" 225; Walker 7'

So the Plumlees should fare quite well relative to most ACC teams and when Zeller is not in the game UNC will get muscled a lot.

[The_Greater_Blue]

With respect to big men:


Wake - Weaver 6'11" 250; Woods 6'11" 245; Desrosiers 6'11" 225; Walker 7'



Weaver graduated this past year...he was at wake for five years, including one as a redshirt...

[Slackerb]

Lorenzo Brown qualified for NC State.

Brown would have been a big boost last year, but this year he'll definitely make an immediate impact. Even with Harrow and Leslie being the higher rated recruits, I think Brown is the biggest upgrade at his position.

http://www.wralsportsfan.com/voices/blogpost/7582267/

No more ifs/buts for the Wolfpack....their pieces are set.

[airowe]

http://ncaabasketball.fanhouse.com/2010/05/26/acc-in-transition-in-2011-except-at-top/

[MisterRoddy]

A good ACC Preview from Doug Gottlieb and Andy Katz.

http://espn.go.com/ncb/notebook/_/page/notebooksummershootaround100901/acc

[SCMatt33]

http://ncaabasketball.fanhouse.com/2010/05/26/acc-in-transition-in-2011-except-at-top/

I liked the humor that was inserted, though it started to get tiresome mid-way through. I particularly liked his characterization is about how tough projecting the top of the ACC is from year to year.

"Generally speaking, you might find more drama reading the owner's guide to your dishwasher than projecting the top of the ACC."

Normally, I don't care about dishwasher analogies, but I'm in Germany for a few months, and they have different water hardness levels, so you have to put a special salt into the back of your dishwasher. I did indeed find drama in my dishwasher's owners guide. Interesting that he broke from his own characterization and picked UNC behind VaTech, which most experts have been reluctant to do.

[ACCBBallFan]

http://d1scourse.typepad.com/blog/2010/09/checking-the-preseason-hoops-preview-mags.html

Athlon and Lindy's lists 4 Duke guys - Singler, Smith, Irving and Curry

3 from UNC - Barnes, Henson and Zeller

3 from VA Tech - Delaney, Alllen and Hudson

1.5 from MD Jordan Williams and Sean Mosley

1.5 from BC Reggie Jackson and Joe trapani

Tracy Smith
Chris Singleton
Durand Scott

[Indoor66]

http://d1scourse.typepad.com/blog/2010/09/checking-the-preseason-hoops-preview-mags.html

Athlon and Lindy's lists 4 Duke guys - Singler, Smith, Irving and Curry

3 from UNC - Barnes, Henson and Zeller

3 from VA Tech - Delaney, Alllen and Hudson

1.5 from MD Jordan Williams and Sean Mosley

1.5 from BC Reggie Jackson and Joe trapani

Tracy Smith
Chris Singleton
Durand Scott

I absolutely cannot figure out what the article is trying to get across. What is the point? Please enlighten this old mind.

[pfrduke]

I absolutely cannot figure out what the article is trying to get across. What is the point? Please enlighten this old mind.

It's the preseason all-conference teams from two preview publications (Lindy's and Athlon's). 1 means first team all conference, 2 means second team, etc.

[4decadedukie]

Glancing at the ACC next year, it's pretty clear that DUKE will be the clear favorite and has a great shot of going 16-0.

With respect, I concur that Duke should have an excellent team, however I disagree re having "a great shot of going 16-0." At this point in the preseason, no reasonable individual would wager against Duke in any forthcoming ACC contest. But, that is VERY different from predicting a 16-0 outcome; there are so many unknowns (including injuries) and there are possibly some days when an opponent is just hot and (unfortunately) Duke is plain awful (please consider Georgetown last season). Therefore, while I hope we go 16-0 and I believe we have the talent, teamwork, leadership, coaching, tenacity and depth to do so, I am a LONG way from suggesting that it is likely.

[MarkD83]

http://d1scourse.typepad.com/blog/2010/09/checking-the-preseason-hoops-preview-mags.html

Athlon and Lindy's lists 4 Duke guys - Singler, Smith, Irving and Curry

3 from UNC - Barnes, Henson and Zeller

3 from VA Tech - Delaney, Alllen and Hudson

1.5 from MD Jordan Williams and Sean Mosley

1.5 from BC Reggie Jackson and Joe trapani

Tracy Smith
Chris Singleton
Durand Scott

So Henson and Zeller are better than either Mason or Miles. Sounds like bulletin board material to me.

[ACCBBallFan]

So Henson and Zeller are better than either Mason or Miles. Sounds like bulletin board material to me.Either that or they have a lot of better teammates who had already gotten votes for all conference than the UNC duo.

So much talent on both teams, not only the Plumlees missing but also Bullock, Dawkins and Kelly.

Not much argument though with any of the guys listed, and could think of a few others like possibly CJ Leslie or Ryan Harrow, Mike Scott, Michael Snaer, Iman Shumpert, Reggie Johnson, etc.

[thenameisbond]

This year's Duke squad will be one of the deepest in many years. I'm doing my best to keep my optimism in check.

[JohnGalt]

So Henson and Zeller are better than either Mason or Miles. Sounds like bulletin board material to me.

Sweaty Gary thinks Henson's going to be the hottest soph on the market:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/story/14025061/comfortable-henson-poised-for-big-breakout-for-tar-heels

[Jderf]

Sweaty Gary thinks Henson's going to be the hottest soph on the market:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/story/14025061/comfortable-henson-poised-for-big-breakout-for-tar-heels

"Henson will average more than 25 minutes per game, a double-double per game and he might lead the ACC in blocked shots, too."

I think the last clause in this sentence worries me the most. Henson has the length and coordination to become a shot blocking machine. He showed the potential multiple times last season, and if he improves his knack for getting his hand between the ball and the basket, it could be scary.

[kong123]

"Henson will average more than 25 minutes per game, a double-double per game and he might lead the ACC in blocked shots, too."

I think the last clause in this sentence worries me the most. Henson has the length and coordination to become a shot blocking machine. He showed the potential multiple times last season, and if he improves his knack for getting his hand between the ball and the basket, it could be scary.

His only problem is that he has no offensive skill to speak of, at least from what I have seen.

[pfrduke]

His only problem is that he has no offensive skill to speak of, at least from what I have seen.

I disagree. It takes tremendous skill to shoot left-handed skyhooks as poorly as Henson does. Hours and hours of hard work are required to perfect a form that is as bad as his is. ;)

In all honesty, I do get the feeling that he's going to have a light bulb moment, where all of a sudden he "gets" it, and becomes a very dangerous player on both sides of the court (he already is on defense). I just hope he has it in the NBA, and not at UNC.