Starting lineup with Singler back?

[BleedsP287]

Didn't see this thread started yet, but interesting discussion. My guess is:

Kyle
Nolan
Mason
Miles
Kyrie

Lots of good players off the bench in Seth, Andre, Ryan, Josh, Tyler. We'll have depth. But of course we'll play 7 players into the ground so we're too tired to win in late March, except we WON THE NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP!

The sun is shining, the birds are singing, and all is right with the world.

[CDu]

Didn't see this thread started yet, but interesting discussion. My guess is:

Kyle
Nolan
Mason
Miles
Kyrie

Lots of good players off the bench in Seth, Andre, Ryan, Josh, Tyler. We'll have depth. But of course we'll play 7 players into the ground so we're too tired to win in late March, except we WON THE NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP!

The sun is shining, the birds are singing, and all is right with the world.

Well, it's been discussed in numerous other threads (pretty much any thread with Singler in the title). The general consensus seems to be divided between Miles (I'd say the majority fall in this category) and Curry for the 5th starter spot, with Singler either playing the 3 or 4 depending upon whom the 5th starter is. I'm in the same boat as you, with both Plumlees and Singler starting.

[DukeCO2009]

You're both forgetting Carrick. He could be a huge addition.

EDIT: Not as a starter- I mean off the bench. Our rotation will be very deep next year and a lot of guys will be fighting for minutes. Practices are going to be TOUGH!

[Newton_14]

Well, it's been discussed in numerous other threads (pretty much any thread with Singler in the title). The general consensus seems to be divided between Miles (I'd say the majority fall in this category) and Curry for the 5th starter spot, with Singler either playing the 3 or 4 depending upon whom the 5th starter is. I'm in the same boat as you, with both Plumlees and Singler starting.

That is my line up as well. Curry is good. Darn good. But I see him as the 6th man, first guard off the bench, and literally could sub in for any of the 5 guys and have Kyle shift to the 4 if Curry subs in for Mason or Miles. Or Curry could sub in for Kyrie and play the point. Or Curry could sub in for Nolan and play the 2. Or Curry could sub in for Kyle and play the 2 with Nolan shifting to the 3.

Options options options. Man it is going to be fun watching this team develop and play.

Starters for me
Kyrie-PG
Nolan-SG
Kyle-SF
Mason-PF
Miles-C

Too bad Oliver Purnell left. Would be sweet watching Clemson try to press this team and watching Kyrie hitting Miles and Mason's with lobs after breaking the press.

[Spy]

I agree with the OP. I think it will be
Kyrie
Nolan
Kyle
Mason
Miles
Having a sixth man like Curry is great, because we can easily change up the starting line up based on the other teams size. We play a big team, put Miles in. We play a smaller team, put Curry in. Versatility.

[Indoor66]

IMO we will see a great deal of substitution and many players getting significant minutes. This team will have a great deal of flexibility. K will take advantage of that and make numerous substitutions. I think we will see some very surprising lineups at times. It should be fun - and exciting to watch the maturation of this group. Too many unknowns to try to set a starting lineup now.

[VaDukie]

I agree with the consensus on this board. I think Seth get starters minutes as a 6th man like Scheyer in 2008. We'll play the 3 guard lineup enough that Dawkins gets 15-20, and whoever emerges between Kelly/Hairston gets double digit minutes. Tough to imagine a Duke team going more than 8 deep - no matter how good 9, 10, & 11 are they can't hang with 1, 2, & 3.

[PhillyDuke]

I think you all are tripping. Curry is not going to sit the bench behind anyone. I believe he is going to be our leading scorer, or second leading scorer on next year's team, before it's all said and done. Imagine what it would be like having Stephen Curry on our team; that's how it's going to be with his brother Seth--watch and see!

[SCMatt33]

I think the starting lineup depends more on Hairston and Kelly than the guys starting. If Coach K feels that those guys are ready to contribute, then we will likely see both Plumlees starting. If he feels that either or both aren't ready for big-time minutes, we might see the Plumlees split up.

[Azdukefan]

You're both forgetting Carrick. He could be a huge addition.

EDIT: Not as a starter- I mean off the bench. Our rotation will be very deep next year and a lot of guys will be fighting for minutes. Practices are going to be TOUGH!

I live approximately 30 minutes from where Carrick played his hs ball and can tell you that unless he has made HUGE strides, he will not crack this lineup. I will eat crow if he does (just as I have done when Z proved me wrong as being a viable inside presence) but just don't see it next year.

Staying on topic my starting lineup would be;
Kyrie
Nolan
Seth
Kyle
Mason

That lineup so unathletic it hurts..........ha ha. With the first two and primary subs being Dre and Miles.

[D.C. Devil]

I think you all are tripping. Curry is not going to sit the bench behind anyone. I believe he is going to be our leading scorer, or second leading scorer on next year's team, before it's all said and done. Imagine what it would be like having Stephen Curry on our team; that's how it's going to be with his brother Seth--watch and see!

But K said that Kyle would play mostly on the perimeter. I think that settles it: the best 4&5 are the brothers plumlee, and there is absolutely no way that nolan and top-5 recruit kyrie come off the bench. Lots of subs get lots of minutes (Curry, Kelly, Dawkins, maybe Carrick Thornton and Hairson), but that's got to be the starting 5.

[Newton_14]

I agree with the consensus on this board. I think Seth get starters minutes as a 6th man like Scheyer in 2008. We'll play the 3 guard lineup enough that Dawkins gets 15-20, and whoever emerges between Kelly/Hairston gets double digit minutes. Tough to imagine a Duke team going more than 8 deep - no matter how good 9, 10, & 11 are they can't hang with 1, 2, & 3.

Actually K has shown that when he has a deep bench with capable players he uses it. Below are the season averages from the 97-98 team. Apologies for not being good at tables. Hopefully a mod or Sagegrouse? is good at tables. Someone posted that they were good at tables and I thought it was Ozzie but he said it was not him. Sagegrouse is my next guess. Anyway hopefully someone can clean it up.

9 guys averaged double figure minutes that year with the 10th guy getting 9 minutes and the 11th guy getting 8 minutes each.

Here it is.

1997-98 Season Averages
Player GP GS MPG FG% 3FG% FT% RPG APG BPG SPG PPG
Roshown McLeod 36 27 23.7 .494 .411 .706 5.6 1.4 .7 1.2 15.3
Trajan Langdon 36 36 28.8 .444 .395 .886 2.9 1.9 .2 .6 14.7
Chris Carrawell 32 10 22.2 .482 .368 .641 3.7 1.1 .7 .6 10.1
William Avery 35 0 19.3 .427 .296 .744 2.0 2.5 .0 1.0 8.5
Elton Brand 21 18 23.5 .592 .000 .604 7.3 .5 1.3 1.5 13.4
Shane Battier 36 20 24.6 .539 .167 .731 6.4 1.1 1.5 1.4 7.6
Mike Chappell 36 21 14.4 .464 .434 .609 2.0 .6 .1 .5 7.1
Steve Wojciechowski 36 36 28.2 .387 .388 .734 2.4 4.6 .0 2.1 6.7
Chris Burgess 36 3 12.6 .508 .200 .338 3.2 .5 .6 .6 4.3
Taymon Domzalski 26 8 9.9 .567 .000 .571 2.8 .0 .5 .3 3.1
Ricky Price 21 1 8.0 .355 .083 .647 1.1 .6 .0 .4 2.7
Nate James 6 0 6.8 .429 .500 .778 1.5 .0 .2 .7 3.5
Todd Singleton 19 0 2.4 .556 .000 .600 .6 .2 .1 .1 .7
J.D. Simpson 15 0 1.9 .200 .000 .000 .3 .2 .0 .3 .3
Jay Heaps 12 0 1.8 1.000 .000 .500 .3 .1 .0 .0 .3
Totals 36 .475 .369 .674 38.3 14.3 5.1 9.4 85.6
Totals 36 .411 .305 .660 35.4 12.9 3.0 5.5 64.1




Here is the link to the data at GoDuke:http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/seasons/season-stats.php?season=1997-98


Duke Basketball Statistics Home

[davekay1971]

But K said that Kyle would play mostly on the perimeter. I think that settles it: the best 4&5 are the brothers plumlee, and there is absolutely no way that nolan and top-5 recruit kyrie come off the bench. Lots of subs get lots of minutes (Curry, Kelly, Dawkins, maybe Carrick Thornton and Hairson), but that's got to be the starting 5.

Once upon a time we had a lineup of Laettner, Davis, G Hill, Billy Mac/T Hill, and Hurley. Basically 2 guards and 2 wings and a center who could strike from low post or high post. No power forward.

I could see an analogy with K showing a lineup of Mason, Kyle, Dawkins/Curry, Nolan, and Kyrie, using an athletic 5 and a combination of wings and guards. That worked particularly well since Hurley was so good at penetrating and dishing (ahem, Kyrie), G Hill was a matchup nightmare (ahem, Kyle), and Laettner was capable of playing under the basket or floating out and opening the interior for drivers (ahem, Mason).

Not saying that it's a perfect analogy or that Coach will use that lineup heavily...just pointing out that having Kyle play on the perimeter and simultaneously sharing the court with Nolan, Kyrie, and Curry are not mutually exclusive.

[MarkD83]

Here is the link to the data at GoDuke:http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/seasons/season-stats.php?season=1997-98

Duke Basketball Statistics Home

1997-98 may give us a little bit of perspective. That team was 32-4 but 3 of the four loses were inopportune. At UNC, UNC in the ACC championship and Ky in the elite eight. So I will enjoy our 2010 National Championship and will also enjoy reading and thinking about next year's team, but will take one game at a time next year and enjoy each of them.

[scottdude8]

I can't see Kyle starting at any other position but the 3. He knows that is where he'd play in the NBA, and it'd be, to be quite honest, disingenuous of K to put him back at the 4 full time now. Now that doesn't mean he won't see time there—considering we have a few backup forwards but really no other true center type besides either of the Plumlees, I can see Kyle playing the four to give either Plumlee a rest for 5-10 minutes a game (because Kelly/Hairston may not be ready to give 15-20 minutes a game from day 1). That is when we may see the 3 guard lineup, but regardless I still see Seth getting 20+ minutes a game.

[Scorp4me]

K has gone deep in the past, as someone else pointed out when he had the talent to do so. Now I'm not saying he'll have it next year, but with he definitely has the potential. Who knows the strides Carrick or Kelly or any of a number of players will make. But when you have so many that you could imagine starting, it's hard not to imagine them playing quite a bit.

I must say personally I'm surprised so many are seeing Miles as the 5th/6th guys instead of Mason. All year long we heard how Mason was going to break out and how Duke would go as far as Mason took them. He was a great backup, but ultimately it was Zoubek who filled that role. He may breakout and finally show off all that potential, but until he does I'd have Miles starting before him.

That being said I'm glad he's there and I hope he's good enough to start. Just another great problem to have!

[SCMatt33]

Actually K has shown that when he has a deep bench with capable players he uses it. Below are the season averages from the 97-98 team. Apologies for not being good at tables. Hopefully a mod or Sagegrouse? is good at tables. Someone posted that they were good at tables and I thought it was Ozzie but he said it was not him. Sagegrouse is my next guess. Anyway hopefully someone can clean it up.

9 guys averaged double figure minutes that year with the 10th guy getting 9 minutes and the 11th guy getting 8 minutes each.

Season long numbers can be deceiving for a number of reasons.

First and foremost, averages do not count DNPs. It only averages games where the player actually played. For example, Elton Brand only played in 21 of the 36 games that year, but this is not reflected in the stats. Technically, if you look at this year's official stats, nine players, including Dawkins and Czyz, averaged over 10 mpg.

Second, these numbers do not account for trends over the season. Games against crappy teams in December count just as much as ACC games. Coach K is notorious for shrinking his bench as the year goes on. Again looking at this year, Dre wasn't really playing much at the end of the year, except for foul trouble, yet the season long numbers don't reflect this at all. By the end of the year, we essentially had a 7 man rotation, despite what the season long numbers may say.

They are a good tool to look at, but season long averages can be very misleading.

[roywhite]

I can't see Kyle starting at any other position but the 3. He knows that is where he'd play in the NBA, and it'd be, to be quite honest, disingenuous of K to put him back at the 4 full time now. Now that doesn't mean he won't see time there—considering we have a few backup forwards but really no other true center type besides either of the Plumlees, I can see Kyle playing the four to give either Plumlee a rest for 5-10 minutes a game (because Kelly/Hairston may not be ready to give 15-20 minutes a game from day 1). That is when we may see the 3 guard lineup, but regardless I still see Seth getting 20+ minutes a game.

Kyle had 9 rebounds and 2 blocks in the national championship game (along with 19 points and stellar defense on Butler's star). Whether he is supposedly playing the "3" or "4", he tends to turn up where needed.

Coach K has it right---Kyle is a Grant Hill, Shane Battier chess piece. His position---basketball player.

[sagegrouse]

(Here is Boozer's table with more even spacing)

Actually K has shown that when he has a deep bench with capable players he uses it. Below are the season averages from the 97-98 team. Apologies for not being good at tables. Hopefully a mod or Sagegrouse? is good at tables. Someone posted that they were good at tables and I thought it was Ozzie but he said it was not him. Sagegrouse is my next guess. Anyway hopefully someone can clean it up.

9 guys averaged double figure minutes that year with the 10th guy getting 9 minutes and the 11th guy getting 8 minutes each.

Here it is.

1997-98 Season Averages


Player GP GS MPG FG% 3FG% FT% RPG APG BPG SPG PPG
Roshown McLeod 36 27 23.7 .494 .411 .706 5.6 1.4 .7 1.2 15.3
Trajan Langdon 36 36 28.8 .444 .395 .886 2.9 1.9 .2 .6 14.7
Chris Carrawell 32 10 22.2 .482 .368 .641 3.7 1.1 .7 .6 10.1
William Avery 35 0 19.3 .427 .296 .744 2.0 2.5 .0 1.0 8.5
Elton Brand 21 18 23.5 .592 .000 .604 7.3 .5 1.3 1.5 13.4
Shane Battier 36 20 24.6 .539 .167 .731 6.4 1.1 1.5 1.4 7.6
Mike Chappell 36 21 14.4 .464 .434 .609 2.0 .6 .1 .5 7.1
Steve Wojciechowski 36 36 28.2 .387 .388 .734 2.4 4.6 .0 2.1 6.7
Chris Burgess 36 3 12.6 .508 .200 .338 3.2 .5 .6 .6 4.3
Ricky Price 21 1 8.0 .355 .083 .647 1.1 .6 .0 .4 2.7
Nate James 6 0 6.8 .429 .500 .778 1.5 .0 .2 .7 3.5
Todd Singleton 19 0 2.4 .556 .000 .600 .6 .2 .1 .1 .7
J.D. Simpson 15 0 1.9 .200 .000 .000 .3 .2 .0 .3 .3
Jay Heaps 12 0 1.81.000 .000 .500 .3 .1 .0 .0 .3
Totals 36 .475 .369 .674 38.3 14.3 5.1 9.4 85.6
Totals 36 .411 .305 .660 35.4 12.9 3.0 5.5 64.1




Here is the link to the data at GoDuke:http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/seasons/season-stats.php?season=1997-98

[Newton_14]

Season long numbers can be deceiving for a number of reasons.

First and foremost, averages do not count DNPs. It only averages games where the player actually played. For example, Elton Brand only played in 21 of the 36 games that year, but this is not reflected in the stats. Technically, if you look at this year's official stats, nine players, including Dawkins and Czyz, averaged over 10 mpg.

Second, these numbers do not account for trends over the season. Games against crappy teams in December count just as much as ACC games. Coach K is notorious for shrinking his bench as the year goes on. Again looking at this year, Dre wasn't really playing much at the end of the year, except for foul trouble, yet the season long numbers don't reflect this at all. By the end of the year, we essentially had a 7 man rotation, despite what the season long numbers may say.

They are a good tool to look at, but season long averages can be very misleading.

I agree, but that year is a fairly comparable year to look at. Even when the competition stiffened, K went a good ways down that bench in 98. There are other years where he did the same. It will all depend on the development of the guys on next year's team, but if their play warrants it I can easily see K playing a 9 man rotation in games against stiff competition.

It can go either way depending on how the kids develop. I guess I just mainly wanted to make the point that if a kid can contribute against good competition K will use him.
He doesn't play 8 or 7 just because he likes those numbers.

[Bo_Spice]

G - Kyrie Irving
G - Nolan Smith
F - Kyle Singler
F - Miles Plumlee
F - Mason Plumlee
6th - Seth Curry
7th - Andre Dawkins
8th - Joshua Hairston/Ryan Kelly (Battle for the bigger minutes)
9th - Loser of ^
10th - Carrick Felix
11th - Tyler Thorton

A lot of our success this coming season will rely on Hairston and Kelly, if both of those guys are ready to contribute from day one we're going to be scary good. If they can't we'll be good but we'll be a smaller team. Hopefully one of them can step it up and allow Mason and Miles to get some rest, but if both can it'd be really nice too see them do what the Plumlee's did for Z and LT (just in less minutes). Our guard rotation is going to be Kyrie, Nolan, Dre, and Seth, with Singler getting most of the time at the 3 but we could see some really small lineups with 3 of those guys in together. All-in-All it's not a bad thing that we have a lot of depth and talent it will only help us in the long run! I can feel Back-2-Back!

[SCMatt33]

I agree, but that year is a fairly comparable year to look at. Even when the competition stiffened, K went a good ways down that bench in 98. There are other years where he did the same. It will all depend on the development of the guys on next year's team, but if their play warrants it I can easily see K playing a 9 man rotation in games against stiff competition.

It can go either way depending on how the kids develop. I guess I just mainly wanted to make the point that if a kid can contribute against good competition K will use him.
He doesn't play 8 or 7 just because he likes those numbers.

That's true, but I also think that Coach K will use the guys who are BEST against quality competition, not just anyone who is capable, regardless of how good they are. He will consistently play his "great" players 35-40 mpg when it counts the most. For example, he trusted the Plumlees this year to contribute against good competion, but when push came to shove against Butler, he went with the starters. I don't think that his criteria is "who can play" but rather "who can play the best." I think you see him use his bench more when he sees players at an equal level. If he thinks someone is better, he will play that guy more, regardless if the difference is good to great, as it will be next year, or just ok to good. '98 was an example of a year when he had a bunch of guys on the same level, so he played them all. I'm not sure right now if Hairston and Kelly will be at the same level as Singler and the Plumlees. If they aren't, they won't play as much, even if they are doing well and are fully capable against good competition.

[roywhite]

11th - Tyler Thorton



Hey, Bo, didn't I tell you...it's Tyler Thornton.

[PhillyDuke]

I think that Seth will prove to be the best guard on our team; yes, even better than Irving and Smith!!!

[flyingdutchdevil]

I think Thorton will be a great contributor from day one, just like Sheldon Williams and Dantay Jones

Spelling Police - hit me with your best shot

[oldnavy]

The key will be the Brothers Plumlee. How much do they improve over last year? They were solid players but this year they need to take it up to the next level IMHO. Should they both have "break out years" in rebounding and defense to go along with some already refined offensive skills, then there is no ceiling for this team. I have NO doubt about the back court. Too much talent there too worry about, and it is a very good mix of talent, unlike the redundant talent of UNC's front court of last year. Our back court guys will complement each other very nicely. Again, if Mason and Miles develop into good to very good defenders and rebounders with some consistent go to offensive moves (not much of a stretch) then we are definitely in the FF hunt with as good a chance at the NC as anyone barring major bad luck.

[greybeard]

I think that it's wide, wide open beyond Kyle and Smith, possibly Kyrie, okay, probably Kyrie. I think that it is way more than possible that Mason and Miles spend a good deal of their respective times on the floor without the other, and that they don't both start. That, to me, will probably be more a function of team personnel than anything else.

K said that there would be a lot more pressure defense. Me, I'd keep an eye on the kid from Gonzaga, whom most seem to be pushing down the charts in favor of shooters. Dude can guard some people, get to the ball, and I think turn teams over guarding the wing. Oh, it's not like he can't put it in the basket, either.

Ryan might well be the biggest beneficiary of Kyle's return. On a per minute basis, might be the team's best inside offensive player, that is, if he plays a tad outside. ;)

[JohnGalt]

I think Thorton will be a great contributor from day one, just like Sheldon Williams and Dantay Jones

Spelling Police - hit me with your best shot

I'm interested to hear why you chose these two players as your examples of contributors from day one.


The key will be the Brothers Plumlee. How much do they improve over last year? They were solid players but this year they need to take it up to the next level IMHO. Should they both have "break out years" in rebounding and defense to go along with some already refined offensive skills, then there is no ceiling for this team. I have NO doubt about the back court. Too much talent there too worry about, and it is a very good mix of talent, unlike the redundant talent of UNC's front court of last year. Our back court guys will complement each other very nicely. Again, if Mason and Miles develop into good to very good defenders and rebounders with some consistent go to offensive moves (not much of a stretch) then we are definitely in the FF hunt with as good a chance at the NC as anyone barring major bad luck.

This is it in a nutshell. It's not unreasonable to expect 65 points per coming just from the backcourt (Singler included). If Miles makes the same jump from last year to this as he did from FreshtoSoph and Mason improves half as much as we all expect, Duke will most certainly be in the hunt for the FF. Fouling is still a concern, but with an entire offseason of dots, the discipline of sliding their feet will come.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I'm interested to hear why you chose these two players as your examples of contributors from day one.

Was making fun of Roy White's spelling police comment. Shelden and Dahntay are the two names that everyone loves to misspell, which I have no problems with (disregard the actual comment).

I still don't get why people love to correct name spelling on this forum. A rose would smell just as sweet if called by any other name (I butchered that quote, didn't I?)

[Duvall]

I still don't get why people love to correct name spelling on this forum. A rose would smell just as sweet if called by any other name (I butchered that quote, didn't I?)

Because it shows a lack of respect to the players. Besides, what's wrong with having standards?

[davekay1971]

Was making fun of Roy White's spelling police comment. Shelden and Dahntay are the two names that everyone loves to misspell, which I have no problems with (disregard the actual comment).

I still don't get why people love to correct name spelling on this forum. A rose would smell just as sweet if called by any other name (I butchered that quote, didn't I?)

Because we're a bunch of anal-retentive type-A high-achievers who consistently have to prove that we're the smartest guy in the room. It's our nature. Might as well as a shark not to eat fish.

http://www.museumaboutnothing.com/Finding%20Nemo/Desktop%20Pictures/bruce.jpg

[flyingdutchdevil]

Because it shows a lack of respect to the players. Besides, what's wrong with having standards?

For the record, gun to my head, I can't spell Coach K's full name. And I can assure you that I have the utmost respect for him.

On top of that, I don't believe it shows a lack of respect at all. I have a last name that gets butchered habitually (I'm Dutch, so I have a crazy last name), and I'm absolutely fine with that. Maybe it's just me, and while I try to spell the names correctly, my, or any other poster's, spelling shouldn't be so heavily criticized.

[CrazieDUMB]

So from I've been reading on these boards, the general consensus is that Tyler Thornton is almost definitely the 11th guy on the team. Is there any chance of redshirting him? I know I'd think about it if I couldn't even get on the floor for a 5 on 5 scrimmage. Or is it necessary to have a fifth guy behind Kyrie, Nolan, Andre, and Seth?*

I ask for kind of selfish reasons, mostly because he went to my high school and I'd love to see as much floor time for him as possible. Don't underestimate this guy's character - he's an extremely hard worker and the consummate team player. The perfect guy for K, and he definitely has the athleticism to become a contributor. He's already known for his tenacious D, but what's less known is that he could penetrate with ease in the WCAC, which some consider to be the best basketball conference in the country. His problem is that his handle isn't great, and often he moves faster than the ball. I think with some practice he's going better than people think.


*That oxford comma was just for you, Duvall and davekay ;)

[JohnGalt]

So from I've been reading on these boards, the general consensus is that Tyler Thornton is almost definitely the 11th guy on the team. Is there any chance of redshirting him? I know I'd think about it if I couldn't even get on the floor for a 5 on 5 scrimmage. Or is it necessary to have a fifth guy behind Kyrie, Nolan, Andre, and Seth?*


I seem to have read that K is against redshirting simply for the sake of playing time, or lack thereof. It takes an injury or something more significant in order for him to redshirt someone. You aren't the first to express that we could be surprised at the PT Tyler may get throughout the year though. Evidently - as you mentioned - defense and worth ethic are his strongpoints and on a K-run team, those two are about as important as any. I seem to also rememeber reading he's played Marshall well all three times they played this past season.

Anyhow, to answer your question, no, I don't think there is a chance he redshirts.

[MChambers]

I seem to have read that K is against redshirting simply for the sake of playing time, or lack thereof. It takes an injury or something more significant in order for him to redshirt someone. You aren't the first to express that we could be surprised at the PT Tyler may get throughout the year though. Evidently - as you mentioned - defense and worth ethic are his strongpoints and on a K-run team, those two are about as important as any. I seem to also rememeber reading he's played Marshall well all three times they played this past season.

Anyhow, to answer your question, no, I don't think there is a chance he redshirts.

I think I remember reading that, too, but then I also read that Duke wanted Czyz to redshirt his freshman year, so I wonder if that policy has changed. Not saying that Czyz and Thornton are similar situations, mind you.

[roywhite]

It's fun to look at next year's roster and speculate on the breakdown of playing time. But a year ago, who would have guessed the minutes that Brian Zoubek and Lance Thomas got down the stretch and in the tournament? There's likely a surprise or two in our assessment of this roster also.

What we know for sure is that the 2010-11 edition will have size, experience, shooting ability, depth, and versatility. Can't wait to see how it evolves.

[InSpades]

I think the starting lineup depends more on Hairston and Kelly than the guys starting. If Coach K feels that those guys are ready to contribute, then we will likely see both Plumlees starting. If he feels that either or both aren't ready for big-time minutes, we might see the Plumlees split up.

I think this is a really good point. Unless you have guys who can come in and play the 4 and 5 then you are better off starting Kyle at the 4. If Hairston and Kelly are getting 20+ minutes combined then starting both Plumlees makes perfect sense. If they are getting more like 10 then I think you go with Kyle at the 4. Regardless it's a long way off and there's so many variables with guys like Kelly, Hairston, etc.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I think this is a really good point. Unless you have guys who can come in and play the 4 and 5 then you are better off starting Kyle at the 4. If Hairston and Kelly are getting 20+ minutes combined then starting both Plumlees makes perfect sense. If they are getting more like 10 then I think you go with Kyle at the 4. Regardless it's a long way off and there's so many variables with guys like Kelly, Hairston, etc.

While you bring up a really good point, why would Kyle come back to Duke to play his unnatural position? Why go back to school to play the 4, where NBA scouts know he has little chance of playing, instead of focusing on the 3 for another year to increase his agility and mobility?

I would be really surprised if Kyle started the 4 or played anything more than 10 minutes at the 4 next year. At the end of this year, he proved that he can guard and play the 3 position. He kept on improving and there is nothing to indicate that he won't further improve at the 3 next year.

[Saratoga2]

So from I've been reading on these boards, the general consensus is that Tyler Thornton is almost definitely the 11th guy on the team. Is there any chance of redshirting him? I know I'd think about it if I couldn't even get on the floor for a 5 on 5 scrimmage. Or is it necessary to have a fifth guy behind Kyrie, Nolan, Andre, and Seth?*

I ask for kind of selfish reasons, mostly because he went to my high school and I'd love to see as much floor time for him as possible. Don't underestimate this guy's character - he's an extremely hard worker and the consummate team player. The perfect guy for K, and he definitely has the athleticism to become a contributor. He's already known for his tenacious D, but what's less known is that he could penetrate with ease in the WCAC, which some consider to be the best basketball conference in the country. His problem is that his handle isn't great, and often he moves faster than the ball. I think with some practice he's going better than people think.



*That oxford comma was just for you, Duvall and davekay ;)


From what I have seen of his play, he has the tools to be good. The problem is that he needs to be coached and find more discipline in his game. It may take some time for the coaching staff to get him to play NCAA DIV I level ball, but he is a safety net at the point, and I doubt he will be red shirted.

[Kedsy]

While you bring up a really good point, why would Kyle come back to Duke to play his unnatural position? Why go back to school to play the 4, where NBA scouts know he has little chance of playing, instead of focusing on the 3 for another year to increase his agility and mobility?

I would be really surprised if Kyle started the 4 or played anything more than 10 minutes at the 4 next year. At the end of this year, he proved that he can guard and play the 3 position. He kept on improving and there is nothing to indicate that he won't further improve at the 3 next year.

"Playing the 4" in college is really only about who you guard. Very few college 4s will actually play 4 in the NBA. Gordon Hayward, for example, played the 4 at Butler this year. I don't think it kept the NBA guys from evaluating him properly.

Having said that, it would probably help Kyle to practice guarding 6'6" lightning quick small forwards (although most NBA 3s are bigger than that), but how many of them are even out there? Assuming we play a lot of four-out, one-in sets on offense, Kyle playing the 4 will hardly be noticeable and will ultimately depend on the other team. Against UNC, for example, I expect he'll play the whole game at the 3. Against NC State, my guess is he'll play a lot of 4.

[InSpades]

While you bring up a really good point, why would Kyle come back to Duke to play his unnatural position? Why go back to school to play the 4, where NBA scouts know he has little chance of playing, instead of focusing on the 3 for another year to increase his agility and mobility?

I would be really surprised if Kyle started the 4 or played anything more than 10 minutes at the 4 next year. At the end of this year, he proved that he can guard and play the 3 position. He kept on improving and there is nothing to indicate that he won't further improve at the 3 next year.

Kyle came back because he wanted to stay at Duke and try to win another national championship. If being the 2nd biggest guy on the floor helps Duke do that then I'm sure Kyle will have no problems with it. Do you really think Coach K would sit better players and play lesser players just so Kyle can play his "natural" position more? If our best 7 players next year end up being Kyle, Nolan, Kyrie, Mason, Miles, Seth and Andre then what do you do? Play Ryan more than Andre just because you think you owe Kyle something for coming back to Duke? That seems ludicrous.

Kyle is great at the 3 spot. Kyle is great at the 4 spot too. They really aren't that different if you ask me. The 4 spot in college is kind of a cross between the 3 and the 4 in the NBA anyway. Kyle will handle the ball on the perimeter and shoot plenty of 3s while playing the 4. The biggest difference will be his rebounding responsibilities and who he guards.

It will be a question of how deep K goes in the bench. If Ryan and Josh play a lot then Kyle can play the 3 more. If they don't he will have to play the 4 more. This could also change throughout the year potentially. Ideally Ryan and Josh are both great... Duke goes 10 deep, everyone plays 15-25 minutes and we win every game by 20 but that seems unlikely :).

[Chitowndevil]

I'll be somewhat surprised if Curry doesn't start next year, at least by the end of the season. From watching tape and word of mouth I get the feeling he will be really good.

I wouldn't get too hung up the 3 vs. 4 issue with Singler. Even if Kyle starts alongside 3 guards, I think Duke will run a lot more 4- and even 5-out sets. Kyle excelled when we put in more motion this season. It's possible, and in my view likely, that he'll be taking the same kind of shots even with different personnel and him (nominally) playing the 4. I also think Kyle's very underrated as a rebounder and will have no problem giving us the rebounding of a traditional 4. Don't forget he's also an incredibly versatile defender.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Kyle came back because he wanted to stay at Duke and try to win another national championship. If being the 2nd biggest guy on the floor helps Duke do that then I'm sure Kyle will have no problems with it. Do you really think Coach K would sit better players and play lesser players just so Kyle can play his "natural" position more? If our best 7 players next year end up being Kyle, Nolan, Kyrie, Mason, Miles, Seth and Andre then what do you do? Play Ryan more than Andre just because you think you owe Kyle something for coming back to Duke? That seems ludicrous.

Kyle is great at the 3 spot. Kyle is great at the 4 spot too. They really aren't that different if you ask me. The 4 spot in college is kind of a cross between the 3 and the 4 in the NBA anyway. Kyle will handle the ball on the perimeter and shoot plenty of 3s while playing the 4. The biggest difference will be his rebounding responsibilities and who he guards.

It will be a question of how deep K goes in the bench. If Ryan and Josh play a lot then Kyle can play the 3 more. If they don't he will have to play the 4 more. This could also change throughout the year potentially. Ideally Ryan and Josh are both great... Duke goes 10 deep, everyone plays 15-25 minutes and we win every game by 20 but that seems unlikely :).

Prepping for the 3 spot and 4 spot are very different under K's system. Kyle proved that this year by losing weight, becoming faster, and learning a new role. Yes - Kyle is great at both positions. Yes - Kyle came back because he wanted to be here for his senior year. But are you trying to tell me that the NBA isn't a goal? K said countless times in the beginning of the season that he is prepping Kyle to go to the NBA. Every Duke player dream of playing in the NBA. That is a huge goal.

Why would Singler opt to come back if he had to revert back to his unnatural position? Because Kyle is the least selfish person in the world? Do you actually believe that? The team is so important to Kyle (obviously), but I'm sure that his personal future is important to him as well. Scouts were SO excited this year when they had the chance to see Kyle play his natural position at the 3. So why would he go back to the 4?

[InSpades]

Prepping for the 3 spot and 4 spot are very different under K's system. Kyle proved that this year by losing weight, becoming faster, and learning a new role. Yes - Kyle is great at both positions. Yes - Kyle came back because he wanted to be here for his senior year. But are you trying to tell me that the NBA isn't a goal? K said countless times in the beginning of the season that he is prepping Kyle to go to the NBA. Every Duke player dream of playing in the NBA. That is a huge goal.

Why would Singler opt to come back if he had to revert back to his unnatural position? Because Kyle is the least selfish person in the world? Do you actually believe that? The team is so important to Kyle (obviously), but I'm sure that his personal future is important to him as well. Scouts were SO excited this year when they had the chance to see Kyle play his natural position at the 3. So why would he go back to the 4?

Seth and Nolan both are more likely to play the point in the NBA than the 2 guard, should we have Seth, Nolan and Kyrie split time playing the point while Andre plays 2-guard? If Mason or Miles gets hurt do you just play Josh and Ryan more to the detriment of the team because Kyle needs to play the 3? Kyle played the 5 his freshman year... was K doing him a huge disservice then? There's no way Mason plays the 5 in the NBA... should he exclusively play the 4 next year?

People are making *way* too much of a deal over positions. It was great that Kyle could show more perimeter skills this year and there's no reason to expect he will show any less next year regardless of where he plays. There's no reason offensively that Kyle can't play the exact same role next year as he played this year despite playing more 4. The Gordon Hayward example is a very good one.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Seth and Nolan both are more likely to play the point in the NBA than the 2 guard, should we have Seth, Nolan and Kyrie split time playing the point while Andre plays 2-guard? If Mason or Miles gets hurt do you just play Josh and Ryan more to the detriment of the team because Kyle needs to play the 3? Kyle played the 5 his freshman year... was K doing him a huge disservice then? There's no way Mason plays the 5 in the NBA... should he exclusively play the 4 next year?

People are making *way* too much of a deal over positions. It was great that Kyle could show more perimeter skills this year and there's no reason to expect he will show any less next year regardless of where he plays. There's no reason offensively that Kyle can't play the exact same role next year as he played this year despite playing more 4. The Gordon Hayward example is a very good one.

Here are my questions:

1) Do you think that the NBA is a goal of Kyle? And how much of a goal do you think it is?
2) Will Kyle play the 4 in the NBA? Or do you think the 3 is more likely?
3) Why would Kyle come back to Duke to play an unnatural position when he just spent the last season playing his natural position? If you say it's because he loves Duke and the team, then I call shenanigans. You're right - he does love Duke and the team, but it's a symbiotic relationship - he gives his talent, and he gets development at his natural position. Only seems fair.

In my mind, Kyle coming back and playing the 4 doesn't make sense. He cares about his own future and Coach K wouldn't be a great coach if he didn't care about Kyle's future either.

And going on to your points about Nolan and Seth, they are combo guards. This Stephen Curry Light, Eric Gordon Light, Ben Gordon (no light), Monte Ellis - they aren't that tall either and yet they play a lot of 2 guard (if not exclusively 2 guard). Combo guards generally play the 2 in college (OJ Mayo, for instance). The 1 and 2 guard positions in K's recent teams haven't been that well defined. Nolan played the 1 at times; so did Scheyer. Also, I fully expect Nolan and/or Seth to get a bunch of minutes (5-10) at the 1 spot. With regards to Mason, wouldn't he play the 4 and Miles the 5? Just seems more fitting.

[InSpades]

You're really trying to say that K would play Kyle at the 3 to the detriment of the success of the team? What kind of message does that send?

Miles will play the 5 when Mason and Miles are in the game. Who do you think will play the 5 when Miles is not in the game? Josh? Ryan?

1 or 2. 3 or 4. 4 or 5. My point is that it doesn't make any difference. If K thinks a lineup of Kyrie, Nolan, Seth, Andre and Kyle gives us the best chance to win a game then why would he not use it? If he thinks Kyrie, Kyle, Ryan, Mason and Miles gives us the best chance of victory then shouldn't he use it? As K likes to say... they are all basketball players. He will put 5 of them on the floor. They will use whatever skills they have to the best of their ability.

To answer all of your questions at once... it doesn't matter if Kyle is the 2nd or 3rd biggest player on the floor for Duke next year at all. The best thing for Kyle's draft prospects is for him to lead Duke to another national championship. He will be seen as the consummate winner and that will mean a heck of a lot more than whether he was the 2nd or 3rd biggest guy on the floor.

[MCFinARL]

I think Thorton will be a great contributor from day one, just like Sheldon Williams and Dantay Jones

Spelling Police - hit me with your best shot

hahahahahaha

[flyingdutchdevil]

You're really trying to say that K would play Kyle at the 3 to the detriment of the success of the team? What kind of message does that send?

Miles will play the 5 when Mason and Miles are in the game. Who do you think will play the 5 when Miles is not in the game? Josh? Ryan?

1 or 2. 3 or 4. 4 or 5. My point is that it doesn't make any difference. If K thinks a lineup of Kyrie, Nolan, Seth, Andre and Kyle gives us the best chance to win a game then why would he not use it? If he thinks Kyrie, Kyle, Ryan, Mason and Miles gives us the best chance of victory then shouldn't he use it? As K likes to say... they are all basketball players. He will put 5 of them on the floor. They will use whatever skills they have to the best of their ability.

To answer all of your questions at once... it doesn't matter if Kyle is the 2nd or 3rd biggest player on the floor for Duke next year at all. The best thing for Kyle's draft prospects is for him to lead Duke to another national championship. He will be seen as the consummate winner and that will mean a heck of a lot more than whether he was the 2nd or 3rd biggest guy on the floor.

Not at all. IMO, Coach K has faith in next year's team to allow the Brothers Plumlee, R. Kelly, and Josh to primarily man the 4 and 5 (Kyle will play a few minutes in the 4). He believes that Kyle at the 3 is the best position possible.

The difference between us is that we're looking at this from completely different perspectives. You're looking at it from 'What's the best angle for the team', which is completely legit. I generally look at it like that as well. If our front court doesn't hold and Kyle at the 4 is the best option, then I'm sure K will use that.

I'm looking at it from Kyle's perspective. And here's what I don't get - why come back for your senior year to play out of position after spending the last year, when you excelled, at your natural position? That makes absolutely, 100% no sense to me. It just doesn't. Kyle is not a stupid guy. He knows that primarily playing the 4 will hurt his stock. Playing a position in college that equates to the NBA is the best way to improve your stock from junior to senior year.

I fully understand where you're coming from and, as I said, I fully agree - under-performing front court = Kyle at the 4. However, if Kyle thinks that he is going to playing the 4 next year, then why come back? He would only be hurting his stock that way (which I'm sure isn't the reason that he's coming back)

[flyingdutchdevil]

Just to add, while I'm sure K can't promise or guarantee anything, I'd like to think that he told Kyle that we'll do everything in his power to get him to play the 3 to further prep him for the NBA.

[Indoor66]

I'm looking at it from Kyle's perspective. And here's what I don't get - why come back for your senior year to play out of position after spending the last year, when you excelled, at your natural position? That makes absolutely, 100% no sense to me. It just doesn't. Kyle is not a stupid guy. He knows that primarily playing the 4 will hurt his stock. Playing a position in college that equates to the NBA is the best way to improve your stock from junior to senior year.

Is it possible that he is not self-consumed, enjoys his life as a college student and team member and is willing to do what is best for the team? Not everything in life has to be done for self-aggrandizement.

[hedevil]

I don't remember which game it was exactly that coach K decided to go with Zoubek and Thomas in the starting lineup, but I remember it was deep into the season. Point being, we won't know until deep into the season what our best starting 5 are. I'm sure we will see plenty of Kyle at the 3 and 4 positions. Coach K repeatedly stated how versatile Kyle is, and how he will use him in a variety of ways. To me, that says Kyle won't be playing exclusively at the 3 spot. If Hairston doesn't develop as a freshman as much as we would like to see, then I can see Kyle getting quite a few minutes at the 4 with Kelly at the 5 if he bulks up (obviously for limited minutes), or alongside Miles at the 5. Fouls will be a determining factor in some games as to where Kyle plays. He will likely see most of his minutes at the 3, but I could easily see Seth at the 3 with Kyle at the 4 in a number of games this season.

[roywhite]

Such angst about Kyle playing "out of position" next year, or not showcasing his play for the pros due to being a "4" often times.

http://blogs.newsobserver.com/accnow/dukes-singler-wants-to-improve-enjoy-senior-season-and-win-another-title


After moving Singler from the post to the wing last season, Krzyzewski said he will use the player in a multitude of ways in 2010-11.

"He'll be in the post some, too; it just depends who we have ... I see using him in a lot of ways. I think Kyle would be very much like how I used Grant [Hill], [Shane] Battier, [Mike] Dunleavy, somewhat [Danny] Ferry — although Ferry was more of a perimeter guy -- where you just use him everywhere,'' Krzyzewski said. "And he can be in there with any lineup, being very versatile."



Kyle will probably never have more variety or freedom on the court. Grant Hill, Shane Battier, Dunleavy, Ferry---they all moved around on the court according to Coach K's plans and their ability, and did quite well in the draft.

[hedevil]

thanks for the link. I couldn't find the quote, but I know what K said during that press conference. I agree completely. Kyle will play the 3, but I won't be surprised to see Kyle used at the 4 or even the 2 if we go big with Kelly, Hairston, or Felix alongside the Plumlees. The fun part is going to see what different strategies K uses in certain situations.:)

[HaveFunExpectToWin]

Once upon a time we had a lineup of Laettner, Davis, G Hill, Billy Mac/T Hill, and Hurley. Basically 2 guards and 2 wings and a center who could strike from low post or high post. No power forward.

I could see an analogy with K showing a lineup of Mason, Kyle, Dawkins/Curry, Nolan, and Kyrie, using an athletic 5 and a combination of wings and guards. That worked particularly well since Hurley was so good at penetrating and dishing (ahem, Kyrie), G Hill was a matchup nightmare (ahem, Kyle), and Laettner was capable of playing under the basket or floating out and opening the interior for drivers (ahem, Mason).

Not saying that it's a perfect analogy or that Coach will use that lineup heavily...just pointing out that having Kyle play on the perimeter and simultaneously sharing the court with Nolan, Kyrie, and Curry are not mutually exclusive.

In this analogy, Nolan = THill, correct? Perhaps that's why I like Nolan so much!

[greybeard]

Not at all. IMO, Coach K has faith in next year's team to allow the Brothers Plumlee, R. Kelly, and Josh to primarily man the 4 and 5 (Kyle will play a few minutes in the 4). He believes that Kyle at the 3 is the best position possible.

The difference between us is that we're looking at this from completely different perspectives. You're looking at it from 'What's the best angle for the team', which is completely legit. I generally look at it like that as well. If our front court doesn't hold and Kyle at the 4 is the best option, then I'm sure K will use that.

I'm looking at it from Kyle's perspective. And here's what I don't get - why come back for your senior year to play out of position after spending the last year, when you excelled, at your natural position? That makes absolutely, 100% no sense to me. It just doesn't. Kyle is not a stupid guy. He knows that primarily playing the 4 will hurt his stock. Playing a position in college that equates to the NBA is the best way to improve your stock from junior to senior year.

I fully understand where you're coming from and, as I said, I fully agree - under-performing front court = Kyle at the 4. However, if Kyle thinks that he is going to playing the 4 next year, then why come back? He would only be hurting his stock that way (which I'm sure isn't the reason that he's coming back)

I think that Kyle will play a 3/4 position in the pros that will defy classification. A "small" power forward aka Dave Debusshere, with an offensive game in which he will get offensive rebounds by beating bigger defenders to the glass from the exterior positions they find themselves in while guarding him, and possibly flipping with a really long 3 who has slower feet and would do better guarding a 4 on the interior.

I do not think that Kyle will best be served by putting him in a box; he will be a forward who this year will develop all aspects of his game, especially as K said in the news conference, his understanding of how he can lead.

Kyle, I believe, along with K are thinking big, here, real big. Dave DeBusshere big; John Havelichek big. Calling him a 3 is just too confining.

[Troublemaker]

Like many others, I would expect Kyle to average 20-25 mpg at the 3 and 10 mpg or so at the 4, subject to much variation depending on the opponent. For example, if Duke plays a very good, small opponent like Butler that is giving us fits with their quickness (i.e. they were winning the quickness vs size tradeoff in the 1st half of the title game), Duke '11 can go small with Kyle at the 4 to match due to increased guard depth whereas Duke '10 didn't really have that option and would have to continue playing big. But I expect Kyle to get more minutes overall at the 3 next season. What carries the day for me and, I suspect, for Coach K is that Duke was a much better defensive and rebounding team last season with Kyle at the 3. He played better defense on the wing than he did when he was in the post the previous two seasons, and with Kyle at the 3, Duke typically enjoyed a huge rebounding and physicality edge from that position. That's not something Duke is going to willingly give up, imo, except in cases where a very good, small opponent forces our hand.

I haven't really had a chance to comment on Kyle staying at Duke so I'll do so here. I think it's awesome and I'm very grateful. I think Kyle will benefit greatly from the experience of being a senior leader, and I'm with stickdog and others who commented that a year of being the "face of college basketball" can only boost his endorsement opportunities and draft position. (Look at Hansbrough, who became a lottery pick to the surprise of many.) And furthermore, Kyle just seems to really love Duke and playing for Duke, so why the heck not. I think a year from now, if Kyle stays healthy (knock on wood), people will look back on the decision to stay as being a no-brainer.

From a team standpoint, I'm glad that Nolan and Kyle can share the senior leadership duties and that the roster now has a third upperclassman on it, counting Miles. Honestly, the leadership burden Nolan would've had to carry without Kyle would've been a bit much, and next season's young team would've been severely overrated. I think we're still overrating the team now (as expected, with all the positive feelings coming off an NC) but I'm much more comfortable that the team has a high ceiling with these two senior anchors in place. I just believe that with a lot of unknowns on the roster (incoming freshmen + young vets stepping into new roles or more playing time), the floor is a bit lower than some expect as well. Every player has a range of possibilities, relative to his talent and experience, for how well he will play in the '10-'11 season, and I think our tendency has been to project too much towards the high end of the range for every player. As a result, some of these projections are going to be off. Mason might not blow up, Carrick might face a huge adjustment and not play very much, Ryan might not be ready to be the first big off the bench, etc. Would it surprise me if Duke is the best team in the country next season? Nope. Would it surprise me if Duke is "only" the 8th best team next season (look how spoiled we are!)? Nope. Just depends on how certain things unfold.

[Greg_Newton]

...with Kyle at the 3, Duke typically enjoyed a huge rebounding and physicality edge from that position. That's not something Duke is going to willingly give up, imo, except in cases where a very good, small opponent forces our hand.

I tend to agree with this wholeheartedly. Would it be possible to play Irving, Smith and Curry at the 1-3? Yes, simply because they're good enough to make playing out of position work. But why would we do this, unless out of necessity? It's not the best way to utilize their talents, plain and simple.

Seth and Nolan are maybe 6'2, and not exactly built like Shelvin Mack. The 1992 team had 6'4 and 6'7 at the 2-3 spots, not a pair of 6'2 combo guards. Say what you want about positions, but I can't remember the last time an elite team's third biggest player was a wiry 6'2.

I tend to fall into the "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" camp. Irving-Smith-Singler-Mason-Miles is a perfect starting lineup, and Seth Curry fits perfectly as the 6th-man-of-the-year sparkplug. Why sub Seth for Miles, and turn our immense size advantage into a very unorthodox and undersized lineup? It might be an interesting change-of-pace for a few minutes at a time, but IMO it would make no sense for that to be our "default" lineup.

(Either way, I just want to point out how awesome of a problem it is that we will have three PG/SGs that are so good they can't be kept off the floor... not to mention a senior NPOY candidate at the 3, a lottery pick at the 4, an athletic freak at the 5, and a plethora of top 20 recruits off the bench.)

[Dukeface88]

Like many others, I would expect Kyle to average 20-25 mpg at the 3 and 10 mpg or so at the 4, subject to much variation depending on the opponent. For example, if Duke plays a very good, small opponent like Butler that is giving us fits with their quickness (i.e. they were winning the quickness vs size tradeoff in the 1st half of the title game), Duke '11 can go small with Kyle at the 4 to match due to increased guard depth whereas Duke '10 didn't really have that option and would have to continue playing big. But I expect Kyle to get more minutes overall at the 3 next season. What carries the day for me and, I suspect, for Coach K is that Duke was a much better defensive and rebounding team last season with Kyle at the 3. He played better defense on the wing than he did when he was in the post the previous two seasons, and with Kyle at the 3, Duke typically enjoyed a huge rebounding and physicality edge from that position. That's not something Duke is going to willingly give up, imo, except in cases where a very good, small opponent forces our hand.

I haven't really had a chance to comment on Kyle staying at Duke so I'll do so here. I think it's awesome and I'm very grateful. I think Kyle will benefit greatly from the experience of being a senior leader, and I'm with stickdog and others who commented that a year of being the "face of college basketball" can only boost his endorsement opportunities and draft position. (Look at Hansbrough, who became a lottery pick to the surprise of many.) And furthermore, Kyle just seems to really love Duke and playing for Duke, so why the heck not. I think a year from now, if Kyle stays healthy (knock on wood), people will look back on the decision to stay as being a no-brainer.

From a team standpoint, I'm glad that Nolan and Kyle can share the senior leadership duties and that the roster now has a third upperclassman on it, counting Miles. Honestly, the leadership burden Nolan would've had to carry without Kyle would've been a bit much, and next season's young team would've been severely overrated. I think we're still overrating the team now (as expected, with all the positive feelings coming off an NC) but I'm much more comfortable that the team has a high ceiling with these two senior anchors in place. I just believe that with a lot of unknowns on the roster (incoming freshmen + young vets stepping into new roles or more playing time), the floor is a bit lower than some expect as well. Every player has a range of possibilities, relative to his talent and experience, for how well he will play in the '10-'11 season, and I think our tendency has been to project too much towards the high end of the range for every player. As a result, some of these projections are going to be off. Mason might not blow up, Carrick might face a huge adjustment and not play very much, Ryan might not be ready to be the first big off the bench, etc. Would it surprise me if Duke is the best team in the country next season? Nope. Would it surprise me if Duke is "only" the 8th best team next season (look how spoiled we are!)? Nope. Just depends on how certain things unfold.

While it's unlikely that everyone on the team will meet expectations, one of the things that has me so confident about next year is that they don't need to. We go three deep at every position except center (and 4 at pg). So even if, say, Seth Curry's freshman year turns out to have been a complete fluke, or Felix never plays more than a couple of minutes per game, or RK fails to put on weight, there's enough redundancy in the line-up to compensate.

The flip side of that is "solving" the minutes distribution. With any other team, I'd expect some early-ish losses before they fully cogeal, but K always has the team bettter prepared and more polished than anyone else in Novemeber/December (they are the rest of the time too, it's just particularly noticible then). We might still see the ritual midseason shake-up though. Either way, this will be a very dangerous team down the stretch.

I agree with most everything else. Even if we "go small" I'd expect to see Andre or Felix at the 3 rather than Curry, barring a really wierd opponent.

[BattierBattalion]

DBR and Coach K said this, but Singler is going to be used in whatever capacity to provide complete mismatches to the opposition. Ever since coaching the Olympics team, Coach K has focused more on the individual and team mismatches more. For example, Singler was a complete mismatch to Butler, so he was our go-to guy. Against California, Zoubek and Thomas were doing work.

The best example of this was the first UNC game. If you guys remember, UNC was neck and neck with us well into the second half. Then Coach K put Dawkins in and moved Kyle to the 4. This completely ravaged UNC because they didn't have four guards who could match up to Scheyer, Smith, Singler, and Dawkins (they had a terrible defensive backcourt).

Next year, I see something very similar. I agree with most people here in that our starting lineup will most likely be Irving, Smith, Singler, and two of Plumlees/Kelly/Hairston committee. But when you insert Curry in and move Singler to 4, holy crap. The only teams that could realistically match up to that are Butler (assuming Hayward comes back), Michigan State, and Purdue, and even so, we're still the superior team.

If I was a UNC fan, I'd be waking up in cold terror sweats. "We can't match up with (presumed starters) Drew, Bullock, Barnes, Henson, and Zeller. They're not fast enough nor defensively-equipped, and we'd turn the ball over every possession to their suffocating pressure. The only way we could is if we went Drew, Strickland, McDonald, Barnes, and Henson. Shoot, we're still going to turn the ball over like 57 times and brick 84 threes! Argggggggh"

[OldSchool]

Depth chart:

Kyrie Seth Tyler

Nolan Seth Dre

Kyle Dre Felix

Mason Ryan Josh

Miles Ryan Mason


Minutes:

At the 1 & 2
Nolan 31
Kyrie 24
Seth 24
Tyler 1

At the 3:
Kyle 29
Dre 10
Felix 1

At the 4 & 5:
Mason 28
Miles 25
Ryan 20
Kyle 5
Josh 2


Zone-buster lineup (a rain of 3s):

Kyrie or Seth
Nolan or Seth
Dre
Kyle
MP1 or MP2

[InSpades]

Depth chart:

Kyrie Seth Tyler

Nolan Seth Dre

Kyle Dre Felix

Mason Ryan Josh

Miles Ryan Mason


Minutes:

At the 1 & 2
Nolan 31
Kyrie 24
Seth 24
Tyler 1

At the 3:
Kyle 29
Dre 10
Felix 1

At the 4 & 5:
Mason 28
Miles 25
Ryan 20
Kyle 5
Josh 2


Zone-buster lineup (a rain of 3s):

Kyrie or Seth
Nolan or Seth
Dre
Kyle
MP1 or MP2

Not getting how Andre goes from 10 MPG this year to 10 MPG next year but Ryan goes from 6 MPG this year to 20 MPG next year. Andre is way too talented not to play more next year.

I'd also say you are short-selling Josh a bit. I'd expect him to play atleast as much as Ryan did last year.

[davekay1971]

For the record, gun to my head, I can't spell Coach K's full name. And I can assure you that I have the utmost respect for him.

On top of that, I don't believe it shows a lack of respect at all. I have a last name that gets butchered habitually (I'm Dutch, so I have a crazy last name), and I'm absolutely fine with that. Maybe it's just me, and while I try to spell the names correctly, my, or any other poster's, spelling shouldn't be so heavily criticized.

Learned it well during the plebe week of my Naval ROTC orientation at Duke.

"SPELL SHUSHEFSKI!"

"SIR, K R Z Y Z E W S K Y, SIR!"

"YOU SCUMBAG, YOU ARE NOT WORTHY TO WEAR THIS UNIFORM OR REPRESENT THIS FINE UNIVERSITY! DROP AND GIVE ME 50 AND WHEN I COME BACK YOU BETTER KNOW HOW TO SPELL THE NAME OF THE GREATEST COACH IN THIS GREAT NATION!"

"SIR, YES, SIR!"

Good memories :D

[OldSchool]

Not getting how Andre goes from 10 MPG this year to 10 MPG next year but Ryan goes from 6 MPG this year to 20 MPG next year. Andre is way too talented not to play more next year.

I'd also say you are short-selling Josh a bit. I'd expect him to play atleast as much as Ryan did last year.

Kyle's decision to stay affects Dre more than any other player. If Kyle left this year, Andre goes from 10 MPG this year to, say, 25 MPG. The upside for Dre is that he has a better chance of being part of another championship team with Kyle staying, and I see Dre starting in his junior and senior seasons.

I don't think Ryan is affected as much by Kyle's decision to stay. I think we will see Kyle some at the 4, but not very much (I guess about 5 MPG).

I think we will have essentially a 4-man rotation at the 4 & 5 spots: Mason, Miles, Ryan and Josh. The reason I don't give Josh more minutes is because I think the experience and basketball savvy already gained by Ryan will give him the edge in minutes, and I do expect Ryan to work hard between now and the start of the season on his physical strength. Of course, the opportunity is there for Josh to grab those minutes if he steps up.

[Big Pappa]

Kyle's decision to stay affects Dre more than any other player. If Kyle left this year, Andre goes from 10 MPG this year to, say, 25 MPG. The upside for Dre is that he has a better chance of being part of another championship team with Kyle staying, and I see Dre starting in his junior and senior seasons.
I don't think Ryan is affected as much by Kyle's decision to stay. I think we will see Kyle some at the 4, but not very much (I guess about 5 MPG).



I think this is a very acurate summation of what I expect the lineup to look like next year. I also agree with most of your points about Dr. Dre as well. The only thing I'm not sure about is whether he will be starting his junior and senior years. This depends on a few things, the first is whether Kyrie leaves after his freshman year. If he does, I see Seth at the point and Dre at the two. If Kyrie stays (which I really hope he does) I see Seth and Dre fighting for the two spot. If Seth wins I can see Dre playing the 3 unless we get Rivers and/or Quincy Miller who could step in and play the 3.

[Nrrrrvous]

Depth chart:

Zone-buster lineup (a rain of 3s):

Kyrie or Seth
Nolan or Seth
Dre
Kyle
MP1 or MP2

Oh man, insert Ryan for MP1 or MP2 and it would be "flooding down in Cameron":D

[DukieInBrasil]

I'm not sold on the idea of both Plumlees starting, although that is certainly possible. Both are good runners/jumpers so there is nothing really holding them back from playing on a pressing/running type team, but I think that K might go with a new "hybrid" offense, sort of a variation of 4-out 1-in. It would go like this:
Kyrie - PG, Nolan - 2G, Seth Curry - SG, Kyle - SF, Miles or Mason - PF.

This of course hinges on Seth being as good as I think he is. Kyle has proven that he is a better-than-adequate rebounder and a stud defender, so even if he is playing a more perimeter oriented game on offense, there is no reason why this line-up would suffer in any way from lack of rebounding or D on the opposing big'uns.
On offense, this line-up would be able to stretch all defenses relentlessly as all 5 are capable of shooting out to and/or from beyond the 3pt line, yet with a multitude of guys capable of getting in the lane from the perimeter.

In reality, I only see Ryan Kelly, Tyler Thornton, Carrick Felix and Josh Hairston as not really contending for starting roles barring some unforeseen unfortunate situation. All of the other 7 guys could easily earn starting spots depending on what K wants from the team.
I think only 3 guys are essentially "guaranteed" starting gigs: Kyle, Nolan and Kyrie. I can see variations of line-ups with one but not both Plumlees, and also starting line-ups with one but not both of Andre and Seth. I don't think that is a knock on any of them either, as they will probably all get lots of minutes. This is a massively deep team and should be a lot of fun to watch!!!

[InSpades]

Kyle's decision to stay affects Dre more than any other player. If Kyle left this year, Andre goes from 10 MPG this year to, say, 25 MPG. The upside for Dre is that he has a better chance of being part of another championship team with Kyle staying, and I see Dre starting in his junior and senior seasons.

I don't think Ryan is affected as much by Kyle's decision to stay. I think we will see Kyle some at the 4, but not very much (I guess about 5 MPG).


I'll put money on Andre playing more than Ryan next year. Andre is ridiculously talented and will be a special player very soon. How many guys have that kind of stroke w/ that kind of athleticism? I will be shocked if he doesn't get around 20 MPG next year.

[DukieInBrasil]

I'll put money on Andre playing more than Ryan next year. Andre is ridiculously talented and will be a special player very soon. How many guys have that kind of stroke w/ that kind of athleticism? I will be shocked if he doesn't get around 20 MPG next year.

20 mpg for Andre sounds about right. People should never 'mis'underestimate how much his sister's death shook him and affected his play for a large part of his Fr. year.

[Greg_Newton]

I'll put money on Andre playing more than Ryan next year. Andre is ridiculously talented and will be a special player very soon. How many guys have that kind of stroke w/ that kind of athleticism? I will be shocked if he doesn't get around 20 MPG next year.

But where does that come from? There are 120 mpg at the 1-3 spots. I'm going to assume Kyle plays 10 minutes at the 4, and assuming him and Nolan play ~33 total minutes each, that leaves 64 minutes for Kyrie, Seth, Andre, Felix, and Thornton. Say Kyrie only gets 25, and Seth only gets 20... that still leaves only 19 minutes for Andre, Felix and Thornton.

However... I'm cautiously hopefully that we'll just be blowing the doors off from the get-go against a lot of teams in a way we weren't capable of this year, and that combined with an up-tempo style will result in more minutes parity (i.e., maybe Kyle and Nolan only play 25 minutes if we're up 48-30 at halftime). I think our losses will be a result of young players taking a day off, but when we're on, boy, will we be on.

But in any case, we have so many talented players that many guys won't get the minutes they seemingly "deserve". There are only so many minutes to go around.

[InSpades]

20 mpg for Andre sounds about right. People should never 'mis'underestimate how much his sister's death shook him and affected his play for a large part of his Fr. year.

That's a very important point, difficult to say what might have been for Andre or how much it impacted his play.

This year I saw Andre flashing talent like I saw Nolan flashing talent his 1st 2 years. It was brief glimpses of it but you could tell he was just waiting to put it all together. It might take Andre until his junior year like it did Nolan but I have little doubt that it will all come together for him. He's definitely losing some minutes w/ all the talent duke has at the 2-3 spots this year but he will get his chance to shine.

[OldSchool]

I'll put money on Andre playing more than Ryan next year. Andre is ridiculously talented and will be a special player very soon. How many guys have that kind of stroke w/ that kind of athleticism? I will be shocked if he doesn't get around 20 MPG next year.

I don't think there is much point to comparing Andre's PT with Ryan's PT. They play different positions, and the amount of minutes played by one has nothing to do with the other.

I agree with everything you say about's Dre's ridiculous talent. I love the kid's game.

It's just that Dre plays the 2 or the 3. To give him minutes, you have to take them away from Nolan (and Seth) at the 2, or from Kyle at the 3.

I suppose you could argue for Kyle playing the 4, giving Dre more minutes at the 3, but I think we will see that lineup only every now and then, not as a regular lineup.

[VaDukie]

That's a very important point, difficult to say what might have been for Andre or how much it impacted his play.

This year I saw Andre flashing talent like I saw Nolan flashing talent his 1st 2 years. It was brief glimpses of it but you could tell he was just waiting to put it all together. It might take Andre until his junior year like it did Nolan but I have little doubt that it will all come together for him. He's definitely losing some minutes w/ all the talent duke has at the 2-3 spots this year but he will get his chance to shine.

The Nolan comparison makes a lot of sense to me. I think he'll contribute in the same way Nolan did in 2009 when he came back from his concussion. He'll give 15-20 quality minutes and when the moment is right he'll exploit teams not paying attention to him on defense - think Nolan's jam against FSU in the 2009 ACC Tourney.

[roywhite]

That's a very important point, difficult to say what might have been for Andre or how much it impacted his play.

This year I saw Andre flashing talent like I saw Nolan flashing talent his 1st 2 years. It was brief glimpses of it but you could tell he was just waiting to put it all together. It might take Andre until his junior year like it did Nolan but I have little doubt that it will all come together for him. He's definitely losing some minutes w/ all the talent duke has at the 2-3 spots this year but he will get his chance to shine.

How about five 3-pt shooting threats on one team?

Last year,
Kyle shot 40% from 3-pt
Nolan shot 39% from 3-pt
Andre (despite a slump) shot 38% from 3-pt

Add:
Seth Curry---better than the others?
Kyrie Irving---great looking pull-up 3 off the dribble

Oops, don't forget Ryan Kelly; he didn't have a great % last year, but he won the 3-pt competition at McDonald's A-A festivities in 2009. 6 threats?

And Andre may have the best looking stroke of the bunch.

Seriously, there just aren't many college teams that ever have this kind of long-range shooting ability.

[Welcome2DaSlopes]

How about five 3-pt shooting threats on one team?

Last year,
Kyle shot 40% from 3-pt
Nolan shot 39% from 3-pt
Andre (despite a slump) shot 38% from 3-pt

Add:
Seth Curry---better than the others?
Kyrie Irving---great looking pull-up 3 off the dribble

Oops, don't forget Ryan Kelly; he didn't have a great % last year, but he won the 3-pt competition at McDonald's A-A festivities in 2009. 6 threats?

And Andre may have the best looking stroke of the bunch.

Seriously, there just aren't many college teams that ever have this kind of long-range shooting ability.

You can also add Mason, you hit a couple, and Josh has some range in his game, Felix should have some range also, but you did say THREATS but yeah I figured i'll just add those guys in as well.

[MChambers]

You can also add Mason, you hit a couple, and Josh has some range in his game, Felix should have some range also, but you did say THREATS but yeah I figured i'll just add those guys in as well.

You left out Miles, who had the best three point percentage on the team last year. Not even close.

Of course, it was one shot, but still . . .

[Welcome2DaSlopes]

You left out Miles, who had the best three point percentage on the team last year. Not even close.

Of course, it was one shot, but still . . .

ahahaha I remember that shot, I didn't really want to go overboard, but hey what the heck make that, ten guys who can hit a three, and i'm sure Tyler coul d hit one as well so that's 11. WOW duke is threat from three with everyone on the team. :D

[Cameroncrazie52]

heres what im thinking K will do
1. Irving
2. seth
3.smith
4. singler
5. mason/miles

if he wants singler to stay on the perimeter
1. irving
2. smith
3. singler
4. hairston/kelly
5. mason/miles
if hairston and kelly are ready to play i think he will split the plumlees and around the 15 min mark he will sub the other two in. he probably will go 8 deep with the lineup and put seth and andre off the bench subbing seth in for irving at point. he can play point his brother does and he did at countdown to craziness. i think thorton will rarely get time his freshman year and same with carrick but they both will be big time players next year

[Welcome2DaSlopes]

heres what im thinking K will do
1. Irving
2. seth
3.smith
4. singler
5. mason/miles

if he wants singler to stay on the perimeter
1. irving
2. smith
3. singler
4. hairston/kelly
5. mason/miles
if hairston and kelly are ready to play i think he will split the plumlees and around the 15 min mark he will sub the other two in. he probably will go 8 deep with the lineup and put seth and andre off the bench subbing seth in for irving at point. he can play point his brother does and he did at countdown to craziness. i think thorton will rarely get time his freshman year and same with carrick but they both will be big time players next year

The only reason I don't think this happens is that The Plumlee brothers play better together, So it would be best for K to start them at the same time.

[Kedsy]

Kyle's decision to stay affects Dre more than any other player. If Kyle left this year, Andre goes from 10 MPG this year to, say, 25 MPG. The upside for Dre is that he has a better chance of being part of another championship team with Kyle staying, and I see Dre starting in his junior and senior seasons.

I agree with those who say you're selling Andre short. Obviously nobody can say for certain, but I expect Andre to still get 20 mpg, or at least 15. Neither Kyle nor Nolan are likely to play 35 mpg next year. There should be plenty of minutes to go around for Kyrie, Seth, and Andre.

[Kedsy]

I'm not sold on the idea of both Plumlees starting, although that is certainly possible. Both are good runners/jumpers so there is nothing really holding them back from playing on a pressing/running type team, but I think that K might go with a new "hybrid" offense, sort of a variation of 4-out 1-in. It would go like this:
Kyrie - PG, Nolan - 2G, Seth Curry - SG, Kyle - SF, Miles or Mason - PF.

This of course hinges on Seth being as good as I think he is. Kyle has proven that he is a better-than-adequate rebounder and a stud defender, so even if he is playing a more perimeter oriented game on offense, there is no reason why this line-up would suffer in any way from lack of rebounding or D on the opposing big'uns.

The danger of the lineup you propose is that Seth (or Nolan) would be guarding a guy 4 or 5 inches taller than him and probably a lot stronger. That will be both a defensive and a rebounding challenge.

Kyle may be able to hold his own on the boards, but what made this past year's team so strong on the boards was we had three great rebounders, and in your lineup we'll only have two.

Having said all that, you may be right about the lineup, because as you pointed out it will be awfully hard for opposing teams to guard that lineup, and K might be willing to gamble that our offensive advantage offsets the defensive/rebounding disadvantage. We can certainly use a lineup like that if we're playing a team like this year's Butler or NC State or Georgetown, or last year's Villanova.

[Kedsy]

But where does that come from? There are 120 mpg at the 1-3 spots. I'm going to assume Kyle plays 10 minutes at the 4, and assuming him and Nolan play ~33 total minutes each, that leaves 64 minutes for Kyrie, Seth, Andre, Felix, and Thornton. Say Kyrie only gets 25, and Seth only gets 20... that still leaves only 19 minutes for Andre, Felix and Thornton.

Everything is negotiable. If Kyle plays 12 minutes at the 4 instead of 10 and he and Nolan average 31 instead of 33, then there's 25 minutes for Andre, Carrick, and Tyler. Give 18 to 20 to Andre, and assume the team's 10th and 11th guys won't get more than 5 to 7 minutes between them. If Carrick or Tyler become the ninth guy in the rotation (for example, if they displaced Josh) then they'd get additional minutes at the expense of whoever sank to 10th man.

[Welcome2DaSlopes]

I guess Casey won't be seeing that much PT all year.

[uh_no]

fwiw

i have curry over kyrie at the 1

even though kyrie is so highly touted, i don't think for a second k starts him over seth who has been in the program (and some say the programs best player) for a year

this may change as the season progresses, but opening day I see

curry
smith
singler
plumlee
plumlee

kyrie's minutes will increase as the year goes on, and andre will get increasing numbers of minutes now that he's actually college age

i don't see anyone other than curry smith singler andre and kyrie getting significant minutes in the top 3 other than maybe kelly when kyle needs a break....but i think that is at most 6-7 minutes a game...kelly will also get minutes at the 4...bringing his total to maybe 15...and the plumlees will have to do a lot of work to stay out of foul trouble and be in great shape to play large numbers of minutes

[amat1129]

there's no way kyrie doesn't start

[Cisco]

there's no way kyrie doesn't start

None of us have seen seth curry play. Last time he played in a game, he was scoring 21ppg for liberty, and scoring that against ACC schools!

If he is better then Kyrie, then he will start. Simple?

Not all great players immediately start. Deon Thompson started over ed davis for UNC in 08-09 , even though davis was considered Top-10 worthy most of the year.

[Duvall]

fwiw

i have curry over kyrie at the 1

even though kyrie is so highly touted, i don't think for a second k starts him over seth who has been in the program (and some say the programs best player) for a year

Not for a second? K has shown repeatedly that he is willing to start a freshman point guard from day one. I doubt he would have any hesitation here.

You often hear that a redshirting transfer is doing great things in practice. It's usually a gross exaggeration.

[DallasDevil]

None of us have seen seth curry play. Last time he played in a game, he was scoring 21ppg for liberty, and scoring that against ACC schools!

If he is better then Kyrie, then he will start. Simple?

Not all great players immediately start. Deon Thompson started over ed davis for UNC in 08-09 , even though davis was considered Top-10 worthy most of the year.

I think that Curry will be a major player for us next year, but I don't think it helps to get carried away with our descriptions. He only played against 2 ACC schools (UVA and Clemson) and the only other "power conference" team he played was mighty DePaul, where he scored 16. It's more accurate to say he averaged 20 points against Big South competition.

Aside from that, it's not unprecedented for Coach K (or many other coaches) to not necessarily start their best players in order to bring some scoring punch off the bench (see Scheyer, Jon). Throw in the fact that Irving is our only pure point, Coach K is not shy about playing freshman point guards, he's the best point guard in his class, and has also put up good numbers against good competition.

I think the more interesting question is not who will start, but who will finish games. I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of Irving, Curry, Smith, Singler, Plumlee line-ups at the end of games when we have a 6-12 point lead for ball handling and FT shooting purposes.

[Big Pappa]

fwiw

i have curry over kyrie at the 1

even though kyrie is so highly touted, i don't think for a second k starts him over seth who has been in the program (and some say the programs best player) for a year



Who is saying this?

[jimsumner]

"I have curry over kyrie at the 1

even though kyrie is so highly touted, i don't think for a second k starts him over seth who has been in the program (and some say the programs best player) for a year"

Kyrie Irving was recruited with the expectation that he would be the starting point guard from day one. Maybe he comes to school 30 pounds overweight or decides to become a Buddhist Monk. But barring something along those lines, he's going to start. If he doesn't, then Nolan Smith would start at point. Curry is not a point guard. He likely will be down the road but he isn't one right now, he isn't his brother and and he certainly isn't the best player in the program.

Curry will be an invaluable sixth man off the bench, likely playing 20-25 mpg and scoring near or slightly above double figures. That's pretty good for a sophomore transfer from a low-major program. But let's not burden him with excessive expectations.

[slower]

...Kyle has proven that he is a better-than-adequate rebounder...

you're kidding, right? Kyle is a GREAT rebounder.

[Kedsy]

You often hear that a redshirting transfer is doing great things in practice. It's usually a gross exaggeration.

While I entirely agree that Kyrie will start from day one, I'm not so sure about the gross exaggeration part. Seth is the third transfer in the K era and it's true that for all three we've heard how wonderful the redshirted transfer has done in practice. But the first two were Roshown McLeod and Dahntay Jones, and when they finally got in the games, it turned out the hype was justified.

[uh_no]

Who is saying this?

it's been in several articles this year of reporters who've watched open practice

saying that the best player on the team is seth

[chrisheery]

If Kyrie Irving doesn't start at PG next year, I'll eat my hat. There is just no way that doesn't happen. He's a stud like no stud we have recruited in the last 6 years, including Gerald, Kyle, Nolan, Mason, and Jon. I love all of those guys, but if you convince a top 5 player, top overall PG to come to your school and dont start him, you will have a really hard time getting the next one to show any interest in Duke at all. Not to mention, HE'S A SILKY SMOOTH STUD.

[Duvall]

While I entirely agree that Kyrie will start from day one, I'm not so sure about the gross exaggeration part. Seth is the third transfer in the K era and it's true that for all three we've heard how wonderful the redshirted transfer has done in practice. But the first two were Roshown McLeod and Dahntay Jones, and when they finally got in the games, it turned out the hype was justified.

Some hype was justified; both McLeod and Jones were solid players from their first games at Duke. But both had plenty of room for improvement, and the talk that Jones was the best player in practice was not reflected when he turned out to be the fourth or fifth best player in games. (On a really talented team, to be sure.) I expect something similar from Curry - he'll be a key contributor next year, but he won't be better than Nolan Smith or Kyle Singler, or close to it.

[chrisheery]

I got to play in one of those pick-up games with that team and Dantay Jones was incredible. He did seem to be the best player on the court at times (if you assume Jason Williams was just in another league and Boozer never played pickup games because there was no challenge in it with Casey Saunders guarding him). DJ was never close to as good as Jason Williams, so the hyperbole there is obvious. Was he better than Duhon, maybe. Dunleavy? He might have looked like it, but in a game with real team defense, Dunleavy's skills trumped Dantay's unreal athleticism.

Similarly, Seth may look nasty in his comfort zone of practice and pickup games, but real games are a different story. I hope he is that good, it would be a great problem to have, but have you seen Kyrie play? Holy crap.

[Welcome2DaSlopes]

Kyrie
Nolan
Kyle
Mason
Miles

[davekay1971]

The more I think about it, the more likely it seems we might see one Plumlee start, not both. That doesn't mean I see Kyle at the power forward spot, more that on defense he might check the other team's PF, but on offense we play a spread motion with four guys cutting and moving from and on the perimeter. K has the luxury of being able to have a solid post player in Miles or Mason, a guy in Kyle who can defend a PF, and a guy who can rebound as well as any PF in the league at both ends. K tends to start the best 5 players. If that's going to end up being Kyrie, Nolan, Kyle, Curry, and Miles/Mason...why not start with them?

[Jderf]

I don't remember where or when I saw it, but it was right after Kyle announced he was coming back, I read a statement in an article that got me really excited about this upcoming season. It said something along the lines of this (i.e. not an exact quote, but the gist is there):

"With four other forwards and five guards, Coach K will not be forced to play Kyle in any specific position. Rather, he will be able to use him like the queen in chess, letting him move around the court and play in the spot that gives his side the biggest advantage in a given game."

Besides noting the slightly odd cross-gender analogy, this comment really made me realize how significant Kyle coming back was. Unlike his freshman year or last year, where Kyle was essentially locked into one spot due to roster limitations, we're are going to see Kyle all over the court this year. There is a very good chance that he will start in a different spot for different games, depending on the matchups (especially early in the season, before the rotation solidifies).

(Edit: Actually, If anyone else remembers seeing that article, thinking you could maybe find it for me?)

[hedevil]

Have any of you read back through this thread lately? It sounds like some of you feel disrespected to have Curry compared to Nolan, Kyle, and Kyrie. All these guys are going to be wearing Duke jerseys this year. That's all that matters. I will however second the fact (as an earlier poster stated) that many people have stated in articles that Seth was the best player at practice. Obviously Kyrie wasn't there. If he is better than Nolan and Kyle, who cares. Shouldn't everyone be happy about that. Personally, I wouldn't dare say Curry is or is not better than so and so until the season begins. While I'm at it though, I will add, if we're going to debate the type of competition Curry played against as a freshman, keep in mind tha he was most likely the key player that those defenses prepared/strategized for. Meaning that in a system like Duke's, which is full of talent, Seth should only be able to excel even more. Keep in mind that Stephen and Dale Curry have also endorsed the skills Seth possesses. Sure it might just be because he's family, or maybe it's because the kid got ridiculous game. As a duke fan, I'm hoping it's the latter. :D

[PhillyDuke]

I was elated when Kyrie chose Duke, but I wasn't sweating it because I knew we had Curry. If you read the articles about Seth when he first transferred to Duke, his father said he'll play the position he's most likely play in the pros, and that is point guard. I also recall an article where Coach K said he wants a point guard with a scorers mentality (Curry), so Seth is not going to be a 2-guard. I don't believe that Coach K will just hand the starting PG position to Irving, especially if it turns out that Curry is better. The reality is: we are loaded at the guard position, and someone is going to lose some PT, and IMO it won't be Curry or Irving.

[Welcome2DaSlopes]

The reality is: we are loaded at the guard position, and someone is going to lose some PT, and IMO it won't be Curry or Irving.

So Nolan?

[dcar1985]

So Nolan?

Ummm no...unfortunately Dre will probably be the odd man out, but he'll still get plenty of clock IMO...

I've seen alot of peoples lineups for next year and alot have Seth playin the 3 which i really dont see at all, Seth is gonna get his minutes spelling KI at the 1 and Nolan at the 2...

Now Dre will see the majority of his minutes also backing up Nolan and coming in for Kyle...the reason i say Dre is the odd man out is just because Nolan and Kyle are gonna get the most minutes thats a given but Kyrie being a frosh and at times maybe having freshmen moments and possibly not being at the same conditioning level coming from HS will see less mins then Kyle and Nolan which would be in Seths favor.

[Newton_14]

So Nolan?

Nolan's minutes will come down from this year simply because there will be no need to play him 36 minutes per game. But he will be at or near the top of the list of highest mpg for sure. Reduction of his minutes will certainly not be because of someone else being better at the 2 guard than Nolan. Not a chance.

Nolan is the best on ball defender on the team hands down. That alone will get him all the minutes he wants. He is also a proven scorer, a veteran, will be a captain and a winner.

I love all the talent we will have in the backcourt next year and don't have a negative thing to say about any of them. Kyrie is unreal and Seth has a lot of talent as well. As does Andre. As does Kyle.

It is a great outlook. Nolan will be the captain and leader that shows the young bucks the ropes. And K is on record as saying he expects Nolan to take his game up to yet another level next year.

Great things will come from that group of guys. An that is an easy prediction. So is predicting that Nolan will not take a back seat to anyone.

[SupaDave]

I don't remember where or when I saw it, but it was right after Kyle announced he was coming back, I read a statement in an article that got me really excited about this upcoming season. It said something along the lines of this (i.e. not an exact quote, but the gist is there):

"With four other forwards and five guards, Coach K will not be forced to play Kyle in any specific position. Rather, he will be able to use him like the queen in chess, letting him move around the court and play in the spot that gives his side the biggest advantage in a given game."

Besides noting the slightly odd cross-gender analogy, this comment really made me realize how significant Kyle coming back was. Unlike his freshman year or last year, where Kyle was essentially locked into one spot due to roster limitations, we're are going to see Kyle all over the court this year. There is a very good chance that he will start in a different spot for different games, depending on the matchups (especially early in the season, before the rotation solidifies).

(Edit: Actually, If anyone else remembers seeing that article, thinking you could maybe find it for me?)

You read it right here at the DBR...

http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/articles/?p=33320

[PhillyDuke]

I believe that Seth is going to be the best guard on the team, and one of our top two scorers. It's no accident that everyone raved about him who saw him play in practice, including Nolan who said "he's going to be one of the best players in the country"!

[Cockabeau]

I was elated when Kyrie chose Duke, but I wasn't sweating it because I knew we had Curry. If you read the articles about Seth when he first transferred to Duke, his father said he'll play the position he's most likely play in the pros, and that is point guard. I also recall an article where Coach K said he wants a point guard with a scorers mentality (Curry), so Seth is not going to be a 2-guard. I don't believe that Coach K will just hand the starting PG position to Irving, especially if it turns out that Curry is better. The reality is: we are loaded at the guard position, and someone is going to lose some PT, and IMO it won't be Curry or Irving.

To be frank you are wrong,sir.
Kyrie will start from day one. End of discussion.
As far as Curry's designated position, the people who are saying that he is a PG are posturing. Right now, Curry is a 2G.
The starting five is:
KI
Curry
Smith
Singler
Plumlee

How is any team going to defend us?This team is going to be tough to beat. Thats the way I see it. One starter or heck maybe even two might have a bad shooting night and we should probably win the game.
And I pity the team we play against when all 5 players are playing well.....

[Cisco]

Are very ignorant, because its obvious to me that Kyle Singler will continue to play the 3 .

He is going to play on the perimeter, because that is his projected NBA position, and Coach K would not do that to him. (put him Back in the post)

Both the Plumlees are pretty much Locks to start IMO.
And so are Kyle and Nolan.

Its between Irving and Curry and Dawkins for the last spot

[Cockabeau]

Cisco,
This team will play smaller not bigger.
Do you really believe K is going to not play pressure man-to-man when he has the horses?

[sandinmyshoes]

The starting line-up could stay the same the entire year, but I think the minutes could vary greatly depending on match ups. Coach K has to be smiling at the thought of all the pieces he'll have to face each challenge.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Cisco,
This team will play smaller not bigger.
Do you really believe K is going to not play pressure man-to-man when he has the horses?

And do you believe that Kyle came back to Duke to play the 4?

"Hi Coach, I want to come back to Duke for my senior year to play the 4, even though I am pretty much a guaranteed first round pick this year in the NBA, where I would have played the 3. I want to play out of position to increase my draft stock."

Yes - Kyle coming back to play the 4 makes a ton of sense...

[Cockabeau]

I think KS is a good SF.
But K prefers pressure man-to-man defense. He has the players to play this type of defense now.
In order to play KS at the 3, Duke would have to play both Plumlees. ...thats not going to happen my friend.
Do you really think K is going to change his preference for pressure man-to-man?
You want K to play KS at the 3 for the sake of getting him selected higher in the draft?

KI
Curry
Smith
Singler
Plumlee

This is our best lineup.

[devilboomer]

believe that Coach K already said Kyle will continue to play on the perimeter, but that he will also play the 4 b/c of his versatility.

Starters:
Kyrie
Nolan
Singler
Plumlee
Plumlee

Finishers:
Kyrie
Nolan
Curry
Singler
Plumlee

[NSDukeFan]

I find it very interesting how some people are so adamant that they know exactly who will and will not play next year. I wonder if perhaps the team will not have the same starting line-up all year (except for Kyle and Nolan) and that all of Irving, Curry and both Plumlees will start at some point. It is certainly possible that Andre and Ryan get a start and contribute next year as well. It depends on how the summer goes for everyone and next year's performance. I believe there have been changes to the starting line-ups the last couple of years.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I think KS is a good SF.
But K prefers pressure man-to-man defense. He has the players to play this type of defense now.
In order to play KS at the 3, Duke would have to play both Plumlees. ...thats not going to happen my friend.
Do you really think K is going to change his preference for pressure man-to-man?
You want K to play KS at the 3 for the sake of getting him selected higher in the draft?

KI
Curry
Smith
Singler
Plumlee

This is our best lineup.

Your right - K won't play Kyle at the 3 for the sake of getting him selected higher. But what no one, and I mean NO ONE, seems to understand is Kyle's decision. Why come back for another year and play out of position? If Kyle is guaranteed to be a first round pick, why come back to play out of position? K and Kyle must have talked about Kyle being the 3 next year. If not, then that is extremely unfair to Kyle, and I wouldn't expect K to do something like that.

And that lineup that you just mentioned - how is that our best lineup? No one has seen Seth play in 13 months. He was the best player on a really bad team his freshman year. As a result, he averaged nearly 17 shots per game. That's a lot (Kyle averaged less than 14 this year).

Curry will be good no doubt, but stating that he "deserves" to start over one of the Brothers Plumlee has absolutely no backing. I remember how our players said that Curry was one of the best players on the team. I also remember Nolan and K saying that the starting lineup in the beginning of the year would be the 3 Ss and the Brothers Plumlee. How did that work out? Players say things all the time - doesn't mean you shouldn't take them with a grain of salt.

[CDu]

Your right - K won't play Kyle at the 3 for the sake of getting him selected higher. But what no one, and I mean NO ONE, seems to understand is Kyle's decision. Why come back for another year and play out of position? If Kyle is guaranteed to be a first round pick, why come back to play out of position? K and Kyle must have talked about Kyle being the 3 next year. If not, then that is extremely unfair to Kyle, and I wouldn't expect K to do something like that.

I agree with the logic being used here. If you assume that the two talked about what Coach K envisions for Duke next year, and you assume that Singler would not have returned to be primarily a 4, then Singler's return means that Coach K didn't tell him that he'd be primarily a 4.

For the record, I do suspect Singler will play some at the 4 next year. I don't think he'll play primarily there though. I think we'll play a fair amount of smaller lineups, and a lot of bigger lineups as well.

[Acymetric]

Your right - K won't play Kyle at the 3 for the sake of getting him selected higher. But what no one, and I mean NO ONE, seems to understand is Kyle's decision. Why come back for another year and play out of position? If Kyle is guaranteed to be a first round pick, why come back to play out of position? K and Kyle must have talked about Kyle being the 3 next year. If not, then that is extremely unfair to Kyle, and I wouldn't expect K to do something like that.

And that lineup that you just mentioned - how is that our best lineup? No one has seen Seth play in 13 months. He was the best player on a really bad team his freshman year. As a result, he averaged nearly 17 shots per game. That's a lot (Kyle averaged less than 14 this year).

Curry will be good no doubt, but stating that he "deserves" to start over one of the Brothers Plumlee has absolutely no backing. I remember how our players said that Curry was one of the best players on the team. I also remember Nolan and K saying that the starting lineup in the beginning of the year would be the 3 Ss and the Brothers Plumlee. How did that work out? Players say things all the time - doesn't mean you shouldn't take them with a grain of salt.

You've got to start reading what other people post (and what is written in published articles). Coach K himself has said that he will play Kyle all over the court. He said Kyle will play on the perimeter AND in the post (translation: at the 4). Where is this notion that spending time at the 4 is going to hurt his draft stock coming from? It's certainly not based in reality.

[Cockabeau]

Well I guess we will agree to disagree then.

History tells me that K is going to go back to pressure D.
And he is not going to get that type of defense with a Singler/Plumlee/Plumlee lineup.

But I respect your opinion.

have a nice day.

[MChambers]

You've got to start reading what other people post (and what is written in published articles). Coach K himself has said that he will play Kyle all over the court. He said Kyle will play on the perimeter AND in the post (translation: at the 4). Where is this notion that spending time at the 4 is going to hurt his draft stock coming from? It's certainly not based in reality.

Let's title it Groundhog's Day, because we seem to be having repeat posts that don't address many of the valid points made by others. (Acymetric, I'm just quoting you to reaffirm what you wrote.)

[flyingdutchdevil]

You've got to start reading what other people post (and what is written in published articles). Coach K himself has said that he will play Kyle all over the court. He said Kyle will play on the perimeter AND in the post (translation: at the 4). Where is this notion that spending time at the 4 is going to hurt his draft stock coming from? It's certainly not based in reality.

I remember reading multiple draft posts before the season started that analysts were really looking forward to seeing Kyle play the 3 so that they could see him in his natural position in the NBA. They wanted to see a more perimeter-oriented player. Kyle did a phenomenal job at the 3 this year, and it kinda pissed me off that analysts didn't rate him higher. I'm sure Kyle knows, like everyone else, that another year at the 3 will help to improve his stock which is where scouts want to see him play. While playing the 4 won't necessarily hurt his stock, it won't be able to help it that much either.

I clearly don't have the links (and this was over 8 months ago), but I remember what I read.

[CDu]

I remember reading multiple draft posts before the season started that analysts were really looking forward to seeing Kyle play the 3 so that they could see him in his natural position in the NBA. They wanted to see a more perimeter-oriented player. Kyle did a phenomenal job at the 3 this year, and it kinda pissed me off that analysts didn't rate him higher. I'm sure Kyle knows, like everyone else, that another year at the 3 will help to improve his stock which is where scouts want to see him play. While playing the 4 won't necessarily hurt his stock, it won't be able to help it that much either.

I clearly don't have the links (and this was over 8 months ago), but I remember what I read.

Well, to be fair, what was said 8 months ago about this past season doesn't really have much implication on what will happen next season.

Apparently, during a recent interview, Coach K said Singler would play everywhere. That's a lot more relevant.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Well, to be fair, what was said 8 months ago about this past season doesn't really have much implication on what will happen next season.

Apparently, during a recent interview, Coach K said Singler would play everywhere. That's a lot more relevant.

Agree that they may be old, but I'm pretty sure that Singler will still play the 3 in the NBA. And with Coach K saying that Singler will play everywhere, I can see him playing everywhere. As a 3. ;)

[CDu]

Agree that they may be old, but I'm pretty sure that Singler will still play the 3 in the NBA. And with Coach K saying that Singler will play everywhere, I can see him playing everywhere. As a 3. ;)

Yes, the 3 is where he'll play in the NBA. Plenty of NBA 3s have played a lot (or even exclusively) at the 4 in college (see Luol Deng for example). So saying he'll play at the 3 at the next level doesn't preclude playing at the 4 in college.

I suspect Singler will play at both the 3 and 4 next year. I suspect how much he plays at the 4 depends on the development of the Plumlees and Kelly/Hairston. My inclination is that he'll play more at the 3.

[Cockabeau]

Yeah...playing him that way makes no sense to me at all.
Singler did a great job at the SF and really shored everything up at the end.

Playing him exclusively at the 3 next season wont really enhance his draft stock at all. The kid is limited athletically and thats why he isnt a lottery pick right now or else he would go. I will tell you what will improve his stock though....his shooting. If he shoots from the outside like Bird he will be a lotto pick. Its just that simple. And the shooting attempts For Kyle will come whether he plays a 3 or a 4.
Playing Singler at the 4 will also give Kyle an opportunity to play more of an open court style because pressure D creates more fast break opportunities. Also, no Z or LT to set screens for kyle next year either. So right now I will stop because I am shredding your logic at playing KS at the 3 next year.

And even if he doesn't make it he will still be making more money than you or I will ever make in our lifetimes overseas....

[flyingdutchdevil]

Yes, the 3 is where he'll play in the NBA. Plenty of NBA 3s have played a lot (or even exclusively) at the 4 in college (see Luol Deng for example). So saying he'll play at the 3 at the next level doesn't preclude playing at the 4 in college.

I suspect Singler will play at both the 3 and 4 next year. I suspect how much he plays at the 4 depends on the development of the Plumlees and Kelly/Hairston. My inclination is that he'll play more at the 3.

I fully agree with you on basically all points. Kyle will see time at both the 3 and 4 and, as you said, it will depend on the development of the big men.

Maybe it's my personal preference, but I really enjoyed Kyle at the 3 more so than the 4. His size, coupled with his great defensive pressure and 3pt stroke, are great assets for the 3. He absolutely brutalized players in the tournament (not wearing Baylor jerseys).

The sheer size of this team was so incredible. We've usually had 6'4" 3s, but Kyle is 6'8" (6'9" in some measurements). Absolutely amazing.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Yeah...playing him that way makes no sense to me at all.
Singler did a great job at the SF and really shored everything up at the end.

Playing him exclusively at the 3 next season wont really enhance his draft stock at all. The kid is limited athletically and thats why he isnt a lottery pick right now or else he would go. I will tell you what will improve his stock though....his shooting. If he shoots from the outside like Bird he will be a lotto pick. Its just that simple. And the shooting attempts For Kyle will come whether he plays a 3 or a 4.
Playing Singler at the 4 will also give Kyle an opportunity to play more of an open court style because pressure D creates more fast break opportunities. Also, no Z or LT to set screens for kyle next year either. So right now I will stop because I am shredding your logic at playing KS at the 3 next year.

And even if he doesn't make it he will still be making more money than you or I will ever make in our lifetimes overseas....

You're cute.

Need to figure out a way for the loser of this debate to do something come November, which will be the only way that we'll get this debate answered.

UNC profile picture for a month? Let me know what you think.

[Lar77]

You've got to start reading what other people post (and what is written in published articles). Coach K himself has said that he will play Kyle all over the court. He said Kyle will play on the perimeter AND in the post (translation: at the 4). Where is this notion that spending time at the 4 is going to hurt his draft stock coming from? It's certainly not based in reality.

There have been a lot of opinions raised on this thread about starting lineups, but here is what we have:

2 established starters: KS, NS
Several developing players (with needs that have been pointed out, but who have shown flashes in game situations): MP1, MP2, AD, RK
Two players that have demonstrated strong ability at other levels, but who are still somewhat unknown: KI, SC
Several other touted unknowns: JH, TT, CF

That's a deep team, allowing a lot of different line-ups and a lot of potential playing time (will we hear next year about how "tired legs" will do us in?). Not sure how we would do against a bruising team (although Kyle will out-tough anyone). It is clearly going to be a different style of play from this year (and most past years). My hope is that they form as a team as this year's did and next year's banquet also recognizes the team as the MVP.

I recall from the Kris Humphries and Kevin Love days that Coach K does not "guarantee" starting or playing time, but gives each player the opportunity to earn it through practice and game performance.

[Kedsy]

I know it has already been said, many times by many people, but why are we debating "3" vs. "4"?

On offense Kyle will play on the perimeter, going inside when the situation demands it. Just like this past year. There may be two guys in the post/setting picks, or there may be only one. On defense Kyle will either guard the other team's 3rd tallest guy (a "3") or 2nd tallest guy (a "4"). How will who he guards have any bearing on his draft status? It certainly hasn't seemed to harmed Gordon Hayward.

I agree with those who say four players will start every game (or at least almost every game, barring injury, etc.) -- Kyrie, Nolan, Kyle, and Mason -- and the fifth starter will vary, depending on matchups, unless/until one player takes the job and runs with it.

No matter who starts, Kyrie, Nolan, Kyle, Seth, Mason, Miles, and Andre will all get good minutes, and two of Ryan, Josh, Carrick, and Tyler will get pretty good minutes (although Ryan has the potential to jump into the first group if he bulks up and continues advancing his skills). The last two (I think probably Carrick and Tyler, but who knows what might happen, if their defense is as good as people have said) will play a few minutes but not nearly as many as the first nine.

Anything else is pure conjecture, as NSDukeFan said. Frankly, all of it is conjecture, although some (but not all) of the basic tenets are evidence-based and not 100% opinion.

[Cockabeau]

There have been a lot of opinions raised on this thread about starting lineups, but here is what we have:

2 established starters: KS, NS
Several developing players (with needs that have been pointed out, but who have shown flashes in game situations): MP1, MP2, AD, RK
Two players that have demonstrated strong ability at other levels, but who are still somewhat unknown: KI, SC
Several other touted unknowns: JH, TT, CF

That's a deep team, allowing a lot of different line-ups and a lot of potential playing time (will we hear next year about how "tired legs" will do us in?). Not sure how we would do against a bruising team (although Kyle will out-tough anyone). It is clearly going to be a different style of play from this year (and most past years). My hope is that they form as a team as this year's did and next year's banquet also recognizes the team as the MVP.

I recall from the Kris Humphries and Kevin Love days that Coach K does not "guarantee" starting or playing time, but gives each player the opportunity to earn it through practice and game performance.

Bruising teams aren't going to be an issue because our pressure will make entry passes difficult plus Duke will exploit mismatches on the other end and it will be either bombs away from 3 or slash to the basket at will.

Next year you will see pressure D and spread offense with a little dash of motion.

I love Dawkins but he really needs to work on his lateral quickness.

The best players play and I can't see anyone supplanting Curry as our fifth starter....
WE gonna be good folks.....!

[Kedsy]

The best players play and I can't see anyone supplanting Curry as our fifth starter....

I'm neither agreeing nor disagreeing with you, but I'm curious: Have you ever actually seen Seth play? (Other than in highlight reels, I mean.)

[Cockabeau]

Let's put it this way. He is our best shooter, he fits in the scheme on Pressure defense, he is quick and he can handle the rock.

These are qualities that Miles,Andre or any other player threatening for the 5th spot don't possess.

With Curry, we force teams to play 5 on 5. Who is going to beat us?

[InSpades]

Let's put it this way. He is our best shooter, he fits in the scheme on Pressure defense, he is quick and he can handle the rock.

These are qualities that Miles,Andre or any other player threatening for the 5th spot don't possess.

With Curry, we force teams to play 5 on 5. Who is going to beat us?

What makes you say Seth is our best shooter? In his only year in college he hit 35% of his 3s. Kyle, Nolan and Andre all have better career 3-point percentages. You could argue that Seth had to take more contested 3s because he was "the man" but it's hard to say for sure. If Seth is better than a 40% 3-point shooter (which Kyle was last year) then the future certainly looks bright :).

I don't know how anyone could be certain about who will start next year. There's so much improvement that can be made between now and then. The "locks" for the starting lineup are Nolan, Kyle and 1 of the 2 Plumlees. Kyrie is pretty darn close to being a lock (he would have to disappoint a lot in practice, which no one expects). The last spot... you can easily make cases for Seth, Andre or the other Plumlee brother. All reasonable... all good choices.

If I had to guess I'd say it's a coin flip between Kyrie-Nolan-Kyle-Mason-Miles and Kyrie-Seth-Nolan-Kyle-Mason/Miles. Regardless I expect to see a lot of Kyle at the 4 w/ 3 guards and a lot of running/pressing like Cockabeau wants to see.

Also just to note... I think both Mason and Miles are going to have awesome years. The fact that I expect to see Kyle at the 4 is just because I think we will need Mason or Miles in at all times. In particular I was really impressed with Miles jump shot last year. He's going to make himself a lot of money if he can consistently hit the 15 footer and improve his defense/rebounding.

[Cockabeau]

Hey I agree with you. Miles Plumlee is a great prospect and Mason will be a star.

Yes, Andre is as good a shooter on our team. But my point is that Curry is the best pure shooter with the least deficiencies barring of course Nolan Smith. Dawkins has some issues with his handling and lateral quickness.

Don't let that 35% statistic fool you about Curry. Teams were throwing junk defenses at the kid all year long.

[CDu]

I know it has already been said, many times by many people, but why are we debating "3" vs. "4"?

I pretty much agree with the rest of your points in this post, so I just singled this part out. The reason that it's relevant to discuss whether Singler plays the 3 or 4 is because that is 100% tied to whether we play a big lineup (with Singler guarding the 3) or a small lineup (with Singler guarding the 4, and Curry or Dawkins guarding the 3).

I agree that offensively there will be no distinction for Singler - he'll play mostly the same offensive role in both positions. But it matters who is on the court with him. This comes into play in two areas:

1) defense
2) screens

If Singler plays the 3, he'll defend the 3 and we'll have a big defending at the 4 and we'll have another screen setter/rebounder post option. If Singler plays the 4, he'll have one less person to set screens for him, and we'll have a smaller player defending at the 3.

This is not to say which is better/worse. We won't know the answer to that until we see all the guys playing together next year. But whether Singler plays the 3 or 4 has very relevant implications on style of play.

[Kedsy]

I pretty much agree with the rest of your points in this post, so I just singled this part out. The reason that it's relevant to discuss whether Singler plays the 3 or 4 is because that is 100% tied to whether we play a big lineup (with Singler guarding the 3) or a small lineup (with Singler guarding the 4, and Curry or Dawkins guarding the 3).

I agree that offensively there will be no distinction for Singler - he'll play mostly the same offensive role in both positions. But it matters who is on the court with him. This comes into play in two areas:

1) defense
2) screens

If Singler plays the 3, he'll defend the 3 and we'll have a big defending at the 4 and we'll have another screen setter/rebounder post option. If Singler plays the 4, he'll have one less person to set screens for him, and we'll have a smaller player defending at the 3.

This is not to say which is better/worse. We won't know the answer to that until we see all the guys playing together next year. But whether Singler plays the 3 or 4 has very relevant implications on style of play.

Yes, of course, this is correct, and I tried to say as much in my earlier post (obviously unsuccessfully). My point was the debate should be which style we're going to play, and not whether Kyle will play the 3 or the 4, which seemed to be the major issue for the past several pages of this thread.

[Kedsy]

Let's put it this way. He is our best shooter, he fits in the scheme on Pressure defense, he is quick and he can handle the rock.

These are qualities that Miles,Andre or any other player threatening for the 5th spot don't possess.

With Curry, we force teams to play 5 on 5. Who is going to beat us?

You didn't answer my question: have you seen Seth play (other than in highlight reels)?

[Fish80]

I agree with those who say four players will start every game ...

I hope that we start 5 players every game. :D

Hold the phone! If we start only 4 players, Kyle can play the 3 and the 4. We'll call it the 7! And by playing two positions, his draft stock will skyrocket! Plus, he could play 80 minutes per game. Awesome!

[Cockabeau]

You didn't answer my question: have you seen Seth play (other than in highlight reels)?

No, have you?

[jimsumner]

The thing that Miles Plumlee has that Seth Curry doesn't have is that Miles is 6'10." Does anyone really want Duke starting a trio of 6'2" players?

Singler's starting at the 3. Curry only starts if he starts ahead of Nolan Smith or Kyrie Irving. Neither is likely to happen and that's understating it.

An embarassment of riches.

And, yes, I've seen Curry play. He's good and he'll get better. But he is not the best player on the team and if anyone goes into next season believing that, then they are setting themselves up for a disappoinment.

[Kedsy]

No, have you?

I haven't. Which is why I'm not comfortable saying things like, "he is our best shooter" and "I can't see anyone supplanting Curry as our fifth starter." But you seem to like saying those sorts of things, so I was wondering whether your statements came from seeing him play or were just bluster. That's all.

[Big Pappa]

Hey I agree with you. Miles Plumlee is a great prospect and Mason will be a star.

Yes, Andre is as good a shooter on our team. But my point is that Curry is the best pure shooter with the least deficiencies barring of course Nolan Smith. Dawkins has some issues with his handling and lateral quickness.

Don't let that 35% statistic fool you about Curry. Teams were throwing junk defenses at the kid all year long.

I don't think you can call him the best pure shooter with guys like Kyle, Dre, and even Kyrie coming in.


The thing that Miles Plumlee has that Seth Curry doesn't have is that Miles is 6'10." Does anyone really want Duke starting a trio of 6'2" players?

Singler's starting at the 3. Curry only starts if he starts ahead of Nolan Smith or Kyrie Irving. Neither is likely to happen and that's understating it.

An embarrassment of riches.

And, yes, I've seen Curry play. He's good and he'll get better. But he is not the best player on the team and if anyone goes into next season believing that, then they are setting themselves up for a disappointment.

I also completely agree with this post. We had such great success with having a big lineup last year, but the much more important point is what Coach K said during his press conference with Kyle. He said that he will play on the perimeter. I think that basically puts this discussion to rest.

I think Seth will be a great contributor but he won't start over Nolan, Kyle, or either one of the Plumlees (simply because he doesn't play the 4 or 5). That leaves Kyrie at the 1 and I can't see that happening. I don't think we land the #3 recruit in the nation and then sit him on the bench, his skill set is WAY too sweet. Also, what kind of message does that send to other top recruits we are going after (Austin, Miller, etc.).

In my estimation that leaves one possible starting lineup:

Kyrie
Nolan
Kyle
Mason
Miles

[dukelifer]

The thing that Miles Plumlee has that Seth Curry doesn't have is that Miles is 6'10." Does anyone really want Duke starting a trio of 6'2" players?

Singler's starting at the 3. Curry only starts if he starts ahead of Nolan Smith or Kyrie Irving. Neither is likely to happen and that's understating it.

An embarassment of riches.

And, yes, I've seen Curry play. He's good and he'll get better. But he is not the best player on the team and if anyone goes into next season believing that, then they are setting themselves up for a disappoinment.

Well if Curry is the best player- that will crush another myth that players cannot get better in practice alone. I have seen Curry play live once- in the Blue White Scrimmage and he was not the best player on the floor then- but he showed some competitiveness. Curry and Dawkins will give real scoring punch off the bench - mostly from deep - and that is something Duke did not have this year- but Curry may surprise mid season. Nolan may be Duke's most consistent scorer and I did not see that coming.

As for playing small- not a good idea for a lot of time because this small team may actually be smaller than 6' 2" as they are not Demarcus Nelson strong or powerful. Miles and Mason will improve over the summer and I expect Ryan will surprise next season.

[InSpades]

I also completely agree with this post. We had such great success with having a big lineup last year, but the much more important point is what Coach K said during his press conference with Kyle. He said that he will play on the perimeter. I think that basically puts this discussion to rest.


That's not what K said at all. He said he would use Kyle in various different roles. Also as many people have already pointed out... just because Kyle plays the 4 doesn't mean he isn't on the perimeter. He will be on the perimeter offensively no matter what lineup we have on the court.

We had great success with a big lineup... was there really much choice in the matter? The big lineup suited our personnel. The smallest lineup we could have put out there would have been pretty big (Scheyer-Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Thomas?). This year pretty much any lineup would suit our personnel and I'm sure K will take full advantage of that flexibility.

[Cockabeau]

Jim Sumner,
I respect you as a poster but I disagree with you on your lineup.
K went big last year for two reasons
1)He had too
2)LT and Z were amazingly effective at screening and rebounding.

That lineup is fine if you are Gonzaga and your name is Mark Few and play half court game.
But we are Duke and K preaches the pressure man-to-man defense.
Now he finally has the players to play this type of defense.
Now he finally has the PG. do you honestly think K will play big next year?

[Big Pappa]

That's not what K said at all. He said he would use Kyle in various different roles. Also as many people have already pointed out... just because Kyle plays the 4 doesn't mean he isn't on the perimeter. He will be on the perimeter offensively no matter what lineup we have on the court.

We had great success with a big lineup... was there really much choice in the matter? The big lineup suited our personnel. The smallest lineup we could have put out there would have been pretty big (Scheyer-Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Thomas?). This year pretty much any lineup would suit our personnel and I'm sure K will take full advantage of that flexibility.

Do you honestly think that we will play with 4 guys on the perimeter and one guy on the block? What about floor spacing?

[MChambers]

Jim Sumner,
I respect you as a poster but I disagree with you on your lineup.
K went big last year for two reasons
1)He had too
2)LT and Z were amazingly effective at screening and rebounding.

That lineup is fine if you are Gonzaga and your name is Mark Few and play half court game.
But we are Duke and K preaches the pressure man-to-man defense.
Now he finally has the players to play this type of defense.
Now he finally has the PG. do you honestly think K will play big next year?

I think were there several reasons Duke didn't play extended pressure man to man last season. I don't think having Kyle at the 3 was one of them.

Duke didn't have any perimeter depth last year; it will this year. Duke had only one guard who could apply strong on the ball pressure. It will (or should) have many next year.

So while I agree that coach K prefers extended pressure defense and will play it next year, I don't think that means that Kyle predominantly will be the "4" next year.

[Greg_Newton]

What exactly is it about that lineup that wouldn't prevent Duke from playing pressure man-to-man? Kyrie and Nolan are ultra quick, Kyle was the co-defensive player of the year for us this year at the 3, and Mason and Miles are both very athletic at the 4 and 5.

Plus, K just won a championship and had a dominant rebounding and defensive team with a bigger lineup, after several years of less dangerous small teams (with largely the same personel). I doubt this is lost on him.

Perhaps the better question is why would K scrap an extremely good starting lineup with no weaknesses to start a skinny 6'2 player at small forward? How exactly is he going to guard 6'7-6'9 SFs for 30 minutes a game in this high pressure man-to-man defense? Even if he could, would it be worth sacrificing a huge rebounding advantage in favor of a likely huge rebounding deficiency with only 2 players over 6'2? Would 4 shooters and 1 screener/finisher even be more effective offensively than 3 shooters and 2 screener/finsihers?

I just don't see why people gotta mess with perfection!;)

[jimsumner]

"Now he finally has the PG. do you honestly think K will play big next year?"

Well, the point guard is Kyrie Irving, not Curry.

You seem to be operating under the assumption that a big lineup and a running lineup are mutually exclusive. But the likely starting bigs will be two of the most mobile, 6'10" players in the country and a 6'8" wing forward who was just named Most Outstanding Player of the Final Four and loves playing in transition. The Plumlees will beat slower big men down the court and convert layups from Irving, Smith and Curry. Sound like a plan?

Remember the 2001 team? A front line of three players in the 6'8"-6'9" range. That team averaged just under 91 ppg, made more than 400 3s and didn't have any trouble at all getting up and down the floor, on offense or defense.

Duke does plan to run and press and disrupt the bejesus out of opposing teams. There likely will be times when three of Smith, Irving, Curry and Dawkins will be on the floor at the same time; that will depend on matchups and game situations. But most of K's best teams have NOT had three guards starting but rather true college wings like David Henderson, Billy King, Robert Brickey, Brian Davis, Grant Hill, Chris Carrawell, Mike Dunleavy and Kyle Singler. Not 6'2" guards playing forward.

So, let me ask the question. Having won his last two NCAA titles with Mike Dunleavy and Kyle Singler at the small forward spot, why would Mike Krzyzewski go small when he has the resources to run effectively with a big lineup?

[Big Pappa]

What exactly is it about that lineup that wouldn't prevent Duke from playing pressure man-to-man? Kyrie and Nolan are ultra quick, Kyle was the co-defensive player of the year for us this year at the 3, and Mason and Miles are both very athletic at the 4 and 5.

Plus, K just won a championship and had a dominant rebounding and defensive team with a bigger lineup, after several years of less dangerous small teams (with largely the same personel). I doubt this is lost on him.

Perhaps the better question is why would K scrap an extremely good starting lineup with no weaknesses to start a skinny 6'2 player at small forward? How exactly is he going to guard 6'7-6'9 SFs for 30 minutes a game in this high pressure man-to-man defense? Even if he could, would it be worth sacrificing a huge rebounding advantage in favor of a likely huge rebounding deficiency with only 2 players over 6'2? Would 4 shooters and 1 screener/finisher even be more effective offensively than 3 shooters and 2 screener/finsihers?

I just don't see why people gotta mess with perfection!;)

A voice of reason.

[InSpades]

Do you honestly think that we will play with 4 guys on the perimeter and one guy on the block? What about floor spacing?

It happens all the time in college basketball. Duke has always been good with spacing. For everyone who doesn't think 3 small guys and 2 big guys can work... look at what Butler did last year. They went 6'0, 6'3, 6'3, 6'8 and 6'9. The guys they brought off the bench were even smaller. They didn't have trouble rebounding. Somehow they defended a much taller Duke team quite well.

A lineup of Irving-Smith-Singler-Plumeex2 would be awesome. How much can you afford to play Miles and Mason together though? They are going to play about 25 minutes each. Can you afford to have neither of them on the court? If not then you get about 10 minutes of them together per game. Do you want 5 of them to be to start? It certainly could be... but it also could not be.

[jimsumner]

"How much can you afford to play Miles and Mason together though? They are going to play about 25 minutes each. Can you afford to have neither of them on the court"

This is a good question. The expectation is that Ryan Kelly will bulk up enough over the summer to become an ACC-caliber, face-up 5. Hairston should be able to play a credible 5 with the right matchup. Otherwise, he'll play the 4, with one of Plumlee, Plumlee or Kelly.

Duke likely will get one of the Plumlees out around the time of the first media timeout and go from there.

[Greg_Newton]

It happens all the time in college basketball. Duke has always been good with spacing. For everyone who doesn't think 3 small guys and 2 big guys can work... look at what Butler did last year. They went 6'0, 6'3, 6'3, 6'8 and 6'9. The guys they brought off the bench were even smaller. They didn't have trouble rebounding. Somehow they defended a much taller Duke team quite well.

A lineup of Irving-Smith-Singler-Plumeex2 would be awesome. How much can you afford to play Miles and Mason together though? They are going to play about 25 minutes each. Can you afford to have neither of them on the court? If not then you get about 10 minutes of them together per game. Do you want 5 of them to be to start? It certainly could be... but it also could not be.

One big difference between Butler's undersized 1-3 and our proposed undersized 1-3 is that their guards were built like tanks. Nored was a beast, and Mach and Veasley were both 200lbs+. Kyrie, Nolan and Seth are more the mosquito-quick type. A "small" SF is one thing, but does a slender, quick 6'2 guard starting at SF really "happen all the time" with elite college teams? I really don't think so, and I would think on the rare occaisons it might have, it would have been out of necessity.

You raise a very interesting point about the Plumlees only playing 10 mpg together though. I would think we'd want them on the floor together as much as possible, so we would start that way, then rest them as fouls and fatigue dictate. But I'm not sure if we can expect them to average more than 25 mpg, so I suppose we may have to hope Kelly fills out enough to play some spot minutes at 5... or we may not see the Plumlees playing together as much as we might be expecting.

Starting your only 2 true centers presents some interesting challenges, especially when they're brothers that you'd like to play together as much as possible. It will be interesting to see how K handles it.

[InSpades]

One big difference between Butler's undersized 1-3 and our proposed undersized 1-3 is that their guards were built like tanks. Nored was a beast, and Mach and Veasley were both 200lbs+. Kyrie, Nolan and Seth are more the mosquito-quick type. A "small" SF is one thing, but does a slender, quick 6'2 guard starting at SF really "happen all the time" with elite college teams? I really don't think so, and I would think on the rare occaisons it might have, it would have been out of necessity.


Mack was definitely built like a truck (pun intended). I didn't say 6'2" SFs happen all the time but instead that 4 out and 1 in sets happen all the time. Also with the way Duke switches on defense the 1-on-1 matchups end up so mixed up anyway. I think Duke will go back to it's pressure defense with Miles or Mason in the middle to try to challenge any shots that get through. I don't expect Duke to be near as good offensive rebounding next year but they will likely shoot a much higher percentage due to the easy baskets they get. It will be interesting to see how next year plays out... I really think with the talent on this team that you can't go wrong no matter what lineup you put out there.

An interesting note... I went looking for "small teams" from last year and the one that stands out the most was Marquette. They went 5'8", 6'0", 6'2", 6'6", 6'6" for starters and their reserve who got the most minutes was 6'3". Now that is a tiny team.

[CDu]

Do you honestly think that we will play with 4 guys on the perimeter and one guy on the block? What about floor spacing?

We have played four guys on the perimeter and one on the block many many times in Coach K's history. In fact, most of the last 20 years have been spent with 4 perimeter-oriented guys and one post guy. Three of our four championships came with that approach, with Grant Hill as the 4 in 1991-1992 and Shane Battier as the 4 in 2001. This past year was an anomaly in that regard.

Now, that doesn't mean we'll necessarily go back to a 4-out, 1-in approach. A key component of many/most of those 4-out, 1-in teams in the past was that two of the perimeter-oriented guys were bigger (6'5" or taller) players. If we were to do that again primarily next year, it would be with three small guys and Singler. That's a much different animal.

[Big Pappa]

We have played four guys on the perimeter and one on the block many many times in Coach K's history. In fact, most of the last 20 years have been spent with 4 perimeter-oriented guys and one post guy. Three of our four championships came with that approach, with Grant Hill as the 4 in 1991-1992 and Shane Battier as the 4 in 2001. This past year was an anomaly in that regard.

Now, that doesn't mean we'll necessarily go back to a 4-out, 1-in approach. A key component of many/most of those 4-out, 1-in teams in the past was that two of the perimeter-oriented guys were bigger (6'5" or taller) players. If we were to do that again primarily next year, it would be with three small guys and Singler. That's a much different animal.

That is exactly what I was talking about. Although Hill and Battier were smaller 4's I don't think it's completely accurate to call the "perimeter-oriented". They may have become such in the league but during their time playing 4 at Duke that spent much of the time inside. Not necessarily on the block but at the elbow or running the baseline.

And, as you mentioned, the "3s" that played with Hill and Battier at the 4 were big. With Battier at the 4 in 2001, Nate James (6'6" 205) and Mike Dunleavy (6'9" 220) were the 2 and 3. With Hill in 1993, Thomas Hill (6'5" 200) and Antonio Lang (6'8") 205 were the 2 and the 3. Very different from Nolan (6'2" 185) and Seth (6'1" 175).

[CDu]

That is exactly what I was talking about. Although Hill and Battier were smaller 4's I don't think it's completely accurate to call the "perimeter-oriented". They may have become such in the league but during their time playing 4 at Duke that spent much of the time inside. Not necessarily on the block but at the elbow or running the baseline.

In the interest of accuracy, Battier was absolutely a perimeter-oriented 4. He shot 296 3pt shots in 2001 (only 13 fewer than Williams, and more than anyone else). Over half of his FG attempts were 3s. The guy could certainly defend in the post, but offensively he was definitely a perimeter player for pretty much his entire Duke career.

Hill was less perimeter-oriented in the championship years, but neither he nor Laettner were anything close to full-time post players. In fact, Laettner took the second-most 3pt shots on the team in 1992. So it wasn't like we had two post players on the floor in the 1991-1992 teams. Those teams spread the floor and attacked from the perimeter as well.


And, as you mentioned, the "3s" that played with Hill and Battier at the 4 were big. With Battier at the 4 in 2001, Nate James (6'6" 205) and Mike Dunleavy (6'9" 220) were the 2 and 3. With Hill in 1993, Thomas Hill (6'5" 200) and Antonio Lang (6'8") 205 were the 2 and the 3. Very different from Nolan (6'2" 185) and Seth (6'1" 175).

Again, just for to clean up the facts a bit, the 1991 and 2001 teams did often play two small guards at the same time. McCaffrey and Hurley (both 6'3" and shorter) played together a lot in 1991. And in 1992, Duhon and Williams shared the floor. In fact, for the ACC and NCAA tourney, Duhon started over James.

Lang wasn't actually a 3 at Duke. He was a backup 4 for much of his career. In 1991, the wings were Thomas Hill, McCaffrey, and Brian Davis. In 1992, it was Hill and Davis, with Grant Hill playing some time at the 3. But yes, those teams were much bigger on the wings than the 4-out team would have if we went that way next year.

However, to be fair, we have also played teams with three smallish guards. Examples of this would be the 2003-2005 teams, which started three smaller guards (Duhon/Dockery, Ewing, and Redick).

[Jderf]

Just wanted to say this about the line of causation:

Rule #1) This is Coach K, so defense will dictate the lineups, and then the lineups will dictate the offense. Not the other way around.

The reason I think Kyle will start at the 3 is because he is our best SF-defender. Sure, a Plumlee-Singler-Curry-Smith-Irving lineup would be absolutely electric on offense, but our guards are just not build to defend the three the way that Kyle is (remember what he did to Hayward?). Besides, it's not like a lineup of Plumlee-Plumlee-Singler-Smith-Irving is going to be an offensive dud. Those guys will still light it up. And when the defense needs it (say, if we play a really talented 3-guard team), then maybe Kyle will slide to the 4 (or depending on how our roster gets depleted throughout the course of a game).

[NSDukeFan]

Just wanted to say this about the line of causation:

Rule #1) This is Coach K, so defense will dictate the lineups, and then the lineups will dictate the offense. Not the other way around.

The reason I think Kyle will start at the 3 is because he is our best SF-defender. Sure, a Plumlee-Singler-Curry-Smith-Irving lineup would be absolutely electric on offense, but our guards are just not build to defend the three the way that Kyle is (remember what he did to Hayward?). Besides, it's not like a lineup of Plumlee-Plumlee-Singler-Smith-Irving is going to be an offensive dud. Those guys will still light it up. And when the defense needs it (say, if we play a really talented 3-guard team), then maybe Kyle will slide to the 4 (or depending on how our roster gets depleted throughout the course of a game).

I agree with your point, just not your example. I agree that changes to the lineup will occur when warranted, I just don't think it will be due to Kyle not being able to guard a really talented guard. I don't think we will face many more difficult matchups at the guard position than LaceDarius Dunn next year, and Kyle (though he may have struggled offensively) did a very good job guarding him.

[CDu]

Just wanted to say this about the line of causation:

Rule #1) This is Coach K, so defense will dictate the lineups, and then the lineups will dictate the offense. Not the other way around.

The reason I think Kyle will start at the 3 is because he is our best SF-defender. Sure, a Plumlee-Singler-Curry-Smith-Irving lineup would be absolutely electric on offense, but our guards are just not build to defend the three the way that Kyle is (remember what he did to Hayward?). Besides, it's not like a lineup of Plumlee-Plumlee-Singler-Smith-Irving is going to be an offensive dud. Those guys will still light it up. And when the defense needs it (say, if we play a really talented 3-guard team), then maybe Kyle will slide to the 4 (or depending on how our roster gets depleted throughout the course of a game).

I think you're dead on that defense will dictate the lineup decisions.

If I had to guess (and I fully admit that it's all guess-work until the guys are on the floor together), I'd say that Singler will play mostly at the 3. However, I think Singler will also play some at the 4 in a small lineup.

My reasoning is different though. I think that our bigs are going to be more suited to defend the 4/5 than Curry/Dawkins/Smith will be to defend the 3. The caveat to the above is that if either of the Plumlees and Kelly/Hairston aren't ready to play major minutes next year, Singler will see plenty of time at the 4 as well. For the same "defense" argument you correctly noted above, Coach K will play Singler at the 4 if defensive need dictates it.

So the question is whether Curry/Dawkins/Smith are more prepared to defend the 3 than Plumlee/Kelly/Hairston are prepared to defend the 4.

[Saratoga2]

With two mobile big men who will play around 25 minutes a game each, we should consider the quality of the players who will fill in the remaining 30 minutes. I expect Singler to spend about 5 minutes of PT backing up the 4, so it is likely that Kelly and Hairston will split the remaining 25 minutes. Kelly is likely to make a step forward and bulk up somewhat during the summer. Having watched Hairston, I believe he is a real sleeper. He is at least 6'8" and maybe a little taller. He showed superior athletic ability and has a good mid range shot, can rebound and seems to have a reasonable handle. I think we will have a very capable sub for the Plumlees in Hairston.

[Big Pappa]

Lang wasn't actually a 3 at Duke. He was a backup 4 for much of his career. In 1991, the wings were Thomas Hill, McCaffrey, and Brian Davis. In 1992, it was Hill and Davis, with Grant Hill playing some time at the 3. But yes, those teams were much bigger on the wings than the 4-out team would have if we went that way next year.

However, to be fair, we have also played teams with three smallish guards. Examples of this would be the 2003-2005 teams, which started three smaller guards (Duhon/Dockery, Ewing, and Redick).

I was talking about the 92-93 year when refering to Hill and Lang because that was the year I thought you were talking about with Grant. That year the startes were Hurley, Hill, Hill, Parks and Lang for the great majority of the season. I guess I misread your previous post or thought you meant 92-93 instead of 91-92.

Also I don't know if Lang played the 3 or 4 most of the time but he started 87 games in his career (8 as a freshman, 18 as a sophomore, 27 as a junior and all 34 as a senior).

[Big Pappa]

In the interest of accuracy, Battier was absolutely a perimeter-oriented 4. He shot 296 3pt shots in 2001 (only 13 fewer than Williams, and more than anyone else). Over half of his FG attempts were 3s. The guy could certainly defend in the post, but offensively he was definitely a perimeter player for pretty much his entire Duke career.


You are very right about this, that was innaccurate of me to say. IMO Shane was perimeter on offense and paint on defense. But lets be honest, the guy could defend any position on the floor.

[Kedsy]

With two mobile big men who will play around 25 minutes a game each, we should consider the quality of the players who will fill in the remaining 30 minutes. I expect Singler to spend about 5 minutes of PT backing up the 4, so it is likely that Kelly and Hairston will split the remaining 25 minutes. Kelly is likely to make a step forward and bulk up somewhat during the summer. Having watched Hairston, I believe he is a real sleeper. He is at least 6'8" and maybe a little taller. He showed superior athletic ability and has a good mid range shot, can rebound and seems to have a reasonable handle. I think we will have a very capable sub for the Plumlees in Hairston.

It's also very possible that Miles won't play much more than 20 minutes (as opposed to 25) which would give 5 more minutes to the Kelly/Hairston duo (15 apiece, or maybe 20/10, depending on how much Ryan advances over the summer).

[Bob Green]

Starters:

Kyle Singler will be on the court for around 36 minutes per game as a senior. He averaged 35.9 minutes as a junior and I really don't see anything changing next season. Singler is versatile on both ends of the court being able to play on the perimeter or inside. He was expected to compete for ACC POY honors as a junior, however, he started just a tad slow while adjusting to his new role on the perimeter. He will not have to endure any adjustment period next season and he should be the odds on favorite for ACC and National POY.

Nolan Smith averaged 35.5 last season and again I don't expect anything different next season. To keep the numbers even, I'll say 35 minutes per game for Smith. Our backcourt will be deeper next season but Smith will be the leader so I expect Coach K to keep him on the court as much as possible. This past season reminded us all there is no substitution for senior experience in big games. Smith proved he can do it all: shoot the 3-ball, penetrate, play pressure defense, and excel in the transition game. His senior season should be spectacular.

Miles Plumlee is the third upperclassman on the roster and he will log as many minutes as possible duing his junior season. Due to anticipating a bit of foul trouble here and there, I'll predict Miles plays 25 minutes per game. Miles is a tough strong inside player who has demonstrated the ability to score points via the jump hook and midrange jumper in addition to offensive putbacks and dunks. The area where he needs to improve is his hands as he fumbles entry passes and loses rebounds on occassions.

Mason Plumlee will get the nod as the second frontcourt player in the starting line-up. This is a guy we all expected to start and develop into a star as a freshman. Things didn't turn out as scripted with the early season injury derailing the time schedule, however, I expect Mason will experience the standard freshman to sophomore improvement and be a much, much improved player in 2010-11. This guy is projected to be a top 15 selection in the 2011 NBA draft for a reason - he is athletic and skilled. Silly fouls and bad decision making limited his playing time as a freshman, but I expect he will put those pesky faults behind him to the tune of 22 minutes per game.

Kyrie Irving will be handed the keys to the team as a freshman and be expected to run the show. Coach Krzyzewski has a long history of starting freshman guards. Dawkins, Amaker, Hurley, Capel, Williams, and Redick all started and played major minutes as freshmen. I'll be suprised if Irving averages less than 22 minutes per game. Alongside Nolan Smith, he will be expected to distribute the basketball and play uptempo pressure defense in order to create turnovers and easy scoring opportunities. With plenty of firepower available to come in off the bench, Irving will be playing at full speed at all times on the court.

Those proposed minutes per game for the starters adds up to 140 out of 200 available minutes. Perhaps I'm a bit high with my predictions for Miles and Mason but I do not believe so. In fact, I believe the fulcrum for success in 2010-11 will be the development and play of the Brothers Plumlee. We need to be able to defend inside and score points via our Big Men so the Plumlees mastering Coach K's help defense concepts, staying out of foul trouble and improving offensively are three items I'd have at the top of any "Things to Watch in 2010-11" list. I cannot overstate how vital I believe Miles and Mason will be next season.

[COYS]

Starters:

Kyle Singler will be on the court for around 36 minutes per game as a senior. He averaged 35.9 minutes as a junior and I really don't see anything changing next season. Singler is versatile on both ends of the court being able to play on the perimeter or inside. He was expected to compete for ACC POY honors as a junior, however, he started just a tad slow while adjusting to his new role on the perimeter. He will not have to endure any adjustment period next season and he should be the odds on favorite for ACC and National POY.

Nolan Smith averaged 35.5 last season and again I don't expect anything different next season. To keep the numbers even, I'll say 35 minutes per game for Smith. Our backcourt will be deeper next season but Smith will be the leader so I expect Coach K to keep him on the court as much as possible. This past season reminded us all there is no substitution for senior experience in big games. Smith proved he can do it all: shoot the 3-ball, penetrate, play pressure defense, and excel in the transition game. His senior season should be spectacular.

Miles Plumlee is the third upperclassman on the roster and he will log as many minutes as possible duing his junior season. Due to anticipating a bit of foul trouble here and there, I'll predict Miles plays 25 minutes per game. Miles is a tough strong inside player who has demonstrated the ability to score points via the jump hook and midrange jumper in addition to offensive putbacks and dunks. The area where he needs to improve is his hands as he fumbles entry passes and loses rebounds on occassions.

Mason Plumlee will get the nod as the second frontcourt player in the starting line-up. This is a guy we all expected to start and develop into a star as a freshman. Things didn't turn out as scripted with the early season injury derailing the time schedule, however, I expect Mason will experience the standard freshman to sophomore improvement and be a much, much improved player in 2010-11. This guy is projected to be a top 15 selection in the 2011 NBA draft for a reason - he is athletic and skilled. Silly fouls and bad decision making limited his playing time as a freshman, but I expect he will put those pesky faults behind him to the tune of 22 minutes per game.

Kyrie Irving will be handed the keys to the team as a freshman and be expected to run the show. Coach Krzyzewski has a long history of starting freshman guards. Dawkins, Amaker, Hurley, Capel, Williams, and Redick all started and played major minutes as freshmen. I'll be suprised if Irving averages less than 22 minutes per game. Alongside Nolan Smith, he will be expected to distribute the basketball and play uptempo pressure defense in order to create turnovers and easy scoring opportunities. With plenty of firepower available to come in off the bench, Irving will be playing at full speed at all times on the court.

Those proposed minutes per game for the starters adds up to 140 out of 200 available minutes. Perhaps I'm a bit high with my predictions for Miles and Mason but I do not believe so. In fact, I believe the fulcrum for success in 2010-11 will be the development and play of the Brothers Plumlee. We need to be able to defend inside and score points via our Big Men so the Plumlees mastering Coach K's help defense concepts, staying out of foul trouble and improving offensively are three items I'd have at the top of any "Things to Watch in 2010-11" list. I cannot overstate how vital I believe Miles and Mason will be next season.

Bob, do you see this as a projection more for conference and postseason play? I only ask because I'd find it surprising if Curry and Dawkins don't take some of the minutes from Smith and Irving (and possibly Singler) during the preconference schedule. As other posters have noted, when Duke has had depth (1998), K has used it. I'd expect Dawkins and Kelly to make the freshman to sophomore leap . . . plus, I don't see Curry as a player that is likely to earn little more than mop up minutes. I agree completely that Nolan and Kyle will own the team and will be on floor the most, by far. However, I just don't think we'll see seasonal averages as high as 35-36 minutes per game simply because we won't have to.

I completely agree that Mason and Miles will be key to the team's success. Their ability to defend the post will go a long way toward determining the team's ceiling. I think we'll see an 8-man rotation of Kyle, Nolan, Kyrie, Mason, Miles, Seth, Andre, and Kelly with the possible addition of Hairston if more depth in the post is needed. I think we'll see Coach K go small from time to time if/when foul trouble strikes either or both of the Plumlees, especially if Kelly doesn't matchup well defensively against a particular team. Obviously, Carrick, Tyler, and Josh will all get fair shots to break into the main rotation so you never know what might change. Even without them receiving too much court time, I still don't see Kyle and Nolan playing quite as many minutes as last year.

[airowe]

I don't see Curry as a player that is likely to earn little more than mop up minutes.

Coys, did you mean Curry here? Everything I've heard on Seth has been very favorable. Some people that have been to practices this year have stated it will be very hard to keep him off the court. I agree with the rest of your post, but this part stands out to me as something I disagree with quite wholeheartedly. I don't think Seth will start (in fact I'd be surprised if he does) but if he doesn't play around 20 mpg I'll be shocked.

[Bob Green]

Bob, do you see this as a projection more for conference and postseason play? I only ask because I'd find it surprising if Curry and Dawkins don't take some of the minutes from Smith and Irving (and possibly Singler) during the preconference schedule.

A great question so thanks for asking it. I see this as a projection for the tough games not the preconference games. There are 60 minutes left for rotation players six through eight (or nine) and both Seth Curry and Andre Dawkins will use a lot of them. I expect Curry and Dawkins to battle for the sixth man role. In the frontcourt, Kelly and Hairston will split some minutes in relief of the Brothers Plumlee, however, I expect Kyle to play forward some of the time in a three guard line-up.

[COYS]

Coys, did you mean Curry here? Everything I've heard on Seth has been very favorable. Some people that have been to practices this year have stated it will be very hard to keep him off the court. I agree with the rest of your post, but this part stands out to me as something I disagree with quite wholeheartedly. I don't think Seth will start (in fact I'd be surprised if he does) but if he doesn't play around 20 mpg I'll be shocked.

I phrased that sentence poorly, but I meant it to say i DON't see as a player that is likely to ONLY earn mop up minutes . . . for a less awkward translation of, I see Curry as an important cog in the team next year and will likely reach high singles if not double digits in scoring and will play 20+ minutes per game. So yes, I agree with you wholeheartedly.

[COYS]

A great question so thanks for asking it. I see this as a projection for the tough games not the preconference games. There are 60 minutes left for rotation players six through eight (or nine) and both Seth Curry and Andre Dawkins will use a lot of them. I expect Curry and Dawkins to battle for the sixth man role. In the frontcourt, Kelly and Hairston will split some minutes in relief of the Brothers Plumlee, however, I expect Kyle to play forward some of the time in a three guard line-up.

This projection I can definitely agree with. I do think we'll see a lot of tinkering early on, but this is probably how it is likely to shake out.

[Jderf]

Starters:

Miles Plumlee (...) The area where he needs to improve is his hands as he fumbles entry passes and loses rebounds on occassions.



I'm hoping that consistently perfect passes from a certain KI will help fix this one, too.

[Welcome2DaSlopes]

I'm shocked people don't think much of Miles. He was our best bench player last year, and I can only see major improvement this off season as well.

[Dukeface88]

I'm shocked people don't think much of Miles. He was our best bench player last year, and I can only see major improvement this off season as well.

This. Miles is the most polished of our bigs. His post moves are better, and he added a pretty good mid-range jumper during the tourny. Mason has more potential, but Miles is the better player right now. If we were to only start one Plumtree (and I wouldn't discount that possibility - don't want to get both centers in foul trouble in the first 5 minutes), it would probably be Miles rather than Mason.

[Devilsfan]

Poor RKelly. He needs to pull a Zoubs and bulk up and show his potential. Then he'll see lots of pt. And then maybe he and a freshmen take over the roll that the brothers two played this year.

[Kedsy]

Starters:

Kyle Singler will be on the court for around 36 minutes per game as a senior. He averaged 35.9 minutes as a junior and I really don't see anything changing next season.

* * *

Nolan Smith averaged 35.5 last season and again I don't expect anything different next season. To keep the numbers even, I'll say 35 minutes per game for Smith.

* * *

Miles Plumlee is the third upperclassman on the roster and he will log as many minutes as possible duing his junior season. Due to anticipating a bit of foul trouble here and there, I'll predict Miles plays 25 minutes per game.

* * *

Mason Plumlee will get the nod as the second frontcourt player in the starting line-up. . . . Silly fouls and bad decision making limited his playing time as a freshman, but I expect he will put those pesky faults behind him to the tune of 22 minutes per game.

* * *

Kyrie Irving will be handed the keys to the team as a freshman and be expected to run the show. Coach Krzyzewski has a long history of starting freshman guards. Dawkins, Amaker, Hurley, Capel, Williams, and Redick all started and played major minutes as freshmen. I'll be suprised if Irving averages less than 22 minutes per game.

* * *

Those proposed minutes per game for the starters adds up to 140 out of 200 available minutes. Perhaps I'm a bit high with my predictions for Miles and Mason but I do not believe so.

This is a well thought out post, Bob, but I have a couple of quibbles. First, you are underselling Kyrie's minutes. You are right K has a history of handing the keys to freshmen guards, but when he does so, he really hands them the keys. The players you named -- Dawkins (35.8 mpg his freshman year), Amaker (36.3), Hurley (33.4), Capel (26.4), Williams (34.0), and Redick (30.7) all played significantly more than the 22 minutes you're giving Kyrie. So history would suggest he'll get at least 26 to 30 minutes per game.

As to whether it's reasonable to expect Nolan and Kyle to log 35+ minutes again this year, I don't quite agree with your reasoning -- last year we had four guards/wings, including a young freshman who wasn't quite ready to log many minutes in ACC and tournament games. That's why Jon, Nolan, and Kyle played so many minutes. This year with much more depth, they'll play less. Duke's history under K is filled with upperclassmen whose minutes went down when the team's depth went up.

Whether they log 35+, 32+, or 30+ historically is a matter of how deep the rotation goes. If you count the "regular rotation" as players who logged 10+ minutes per game (adjusted so DNPs are counted as zero minutes), in the K era we've been six deep 4 times, seven deep 11 times, eight deep 9 times, and nine deep 6 times.

If you assume we'll go eight deep, this has happened nine times:

year # 35+ mpg
---- -----------
1982 2
1983 1
1987 1
1993 1
1995 1

1988 0
1989 0
1999 0
2010 2 (Note: Nolan didn't play 35+ mpg if you count his DNPs as zero minutes)

Notice that we've generally had 35+ minute players on an 8-deep team when the overall talent level of the team is a little down, with the sole exception of this past season. My guess is Kyle and Nolan play 30 to 32 mpg next year.

If you assume we'll go nine deep (as I do), we've only had even one 35+ mpg player once, in 2003 -- a year like 2010 when we only had four players for the guard/wing positions. Further, for a nine-deep team, your overall number of 140 minutes for the starters (or, more accurately in my research, five top minute loggers) is possible but not likely:

year mpg for "starters"
---- -----------------
1990 140
1991 135
1997 133
1998 125
2003 144 (an outlier due to having only 4 players for 3 positions)
2009 133

So, again, I suspect your numbers for Kyle and Nolan are a bit high. I also believe your 25 mpg prediction for Miles is a little high (I'd guess 18 to 22).

Anyway, if you assume our depth is similar in quality to 1991, 1997, and 1998, the starters should be in the 133 to 135 range. If you bump Kyrie up from 22 to 26 or 27, it would mean you'd have to reduce the others by around 10 (-3 for Kyle, -3 for Nolan, -4 for Miles?). To me, at least, that would be a more realistic guess.

Although, having said all that, my numbers are over the entire season (I don't have splits between non-league games and ACC games/tournaments). It's very possible that for the last third of the season, your numbers will be right on.

[Bob Green]

This is a well thought out post, Bob, but I have a couple of quibbles. First, you are underselling Kyrie's minutes. You are right K has a history of handing the keys to freshmen guards, but when he does so, he really hands them the keys. The players you named -- Dawkins (35.8 mpg his freshman year), Amaker (36.3), Hurley (33.4), Capel (26.4), Williams (34.0), and Redick (30.7) all played significantly more than the 22 minutes you're giving Kyrie. So history would suggest he'll get at least 26 to 30 minutes per game.

I believe our guard depth will keep Irving's minutes per game down. Seth Curry and Andre Dawkins are both experienced sophomores who are going to play significant minutes. Dawkins played 12.5 minutes per game as a freshman and I expect his minutes to rise. Everything I've heard about Curry indicates he is too good to keep off the court so with there being a finite number of minutes available, Irving logging 22 mpg seems reasonable to me.

Assuming we play a 3-guard line-up for 15 minutes per game, I could see the minutes divided: Smith (35), Irving (22), Curry (20), and Dawkins (18). Perhaps Smith only plays 32 mpg while Irving plays 25.


If you assume we'll go nine deep (as I do), we've only had even one 35+ mpg player once, in 2003 -- a year like 2010 when we only had four players for the guard/wing positions. Further, for a nine-deep team, your overall number of 140 minutes for the starters (or, more accurately in my research, five top minute loggers) is possible but not likely:

year mpg for "starters"
---- -----------------
1990 140
1991 135
1997 133
1998 125
2003 144 (an outlier due to having only 4 players for 3 positions)
2009 133

So, again, I suspect your numbers for Kyle and Nolan are a bit high. I also believe your 25 mpg prediction for Miles is a little high (I'd guess 18 to 22).



I agree wholeheartedly with you that when the talent is available, Coach Krzyzewski utilizes his bench. The Coach K has a short rotation myth doesn't stand up when the numbers are crunched such as you did in your post.

The rationale behind my prediction of 36, 35, and 25 minutes per game for Kyle, Nolan, and Miles is Coach K has been profoundly influenced by the success achieved this past season while playing a senior laden line-up. Coach K is going to keep those three experienced players on the court as much as possible.

[airowe]

Here's my thing on the minutes, especially for Nolan and Kyle.

Nolan played all 40 minutes 6 games this year. He played 39 minutes 4 games this year. He played 38 minutes 5 games this year.

All that contributed to him playing 35.5 mpg. Even Nolan said he won't have to play 40 minutes a game this year and with our guard depth this year there's just no reason for it to happen. I'm more inclined to think Nolan will play 30-32 than 35-38.

Kyle played 40 minutes 10 games this year. He played 39 minutes 6 games this year. He played 38 minutes 7 games this year.

All that contributed to him playing 35.9 minutes per game. With more depth in the backcourt and two guys in Felix and Hairston who can play the three I certainly don't see Kyle's minutes going up. I'd put him in that 32-35 range.

Don't forget that Duke plans on playing a much more uptempo game on offense and will by all reports go back to pressuring the passing lanes and playing extended perimeter man-to-man defense. All of these factors will contribute to accelerated fatigue and the need for more substitutions.

Regardless, we really don't have any holes in our lineup and can mix and match the pieces in a number of ways. It's going to be fun to watch...

[COYS]

Here's my thing on the minutes, especially for Nolan and Kyle.

Nolan played all 40 minutes 6 games this year. He played 39 minutes 4 games this year. He played 38 minutes 5 games this year.

All that contributed to him playing 35.5 mpg. Even Nolan said he won't have to play 40 minutes a game this year and with our guard depth this year there's just no reason for it to happen. I'm more inclined to think Nolan will play 30-32 than 35-38.

Kyle played 40 minutes 10 games this year. He played 39 minutes 6 games this year. He played 38 minutes 7 games this year.

All that contributed to him playing 35.9 minutes per game. With more depth in the backcourt and two guys in Felix and Hairston who can play the three I certainly don't see Kyle's minutes going up. I'd put him in that 32-35 range.

Don't forget that Duke plans on playing a much more uptempo game on offense and will by all reports go back to pressuring the passing lanes and playing extended perimeter man-to-man defense. All of these factors will contribute to accelerated fatigue and the need for more substitutions.

Regardless, we really don't have any holes in our lineup and can mix and match the pieces in a number of ways. It's going to be fun to watch...

To be fair to Bob, his response to my question indicates that his minutes projection is for the high stakes games. I think he's right on in that Nolan and Kyle will play 35 minutes each in those types of games. Singler is a super-senior. He will be one of the more accomplished players in Duke's storied history. Nolan Smith played at a high level last year and K has already indicated that he expects even bigger things next season. If they are healthy and not in foul trouble, they will play big minutes and, quite frankly, they should. They will be two of the best players in the country.

[Big Pappa]

To be fair to Bob, his response to my question indicates that his minutes projection is for the high stakes games. I think he's right on in that Nolan and Kyle will play 35 minutes each in those types of games. Singler is a super-senior. He will be one of the more accomplished players in Duke's storied history. Nolan Smith played at a high level last year and K has already indicated that he expects even bigger things next season. If they are healthy and not in foul trouble, they will play big minutes and, quite frankly, they should. They will be two of the best players in the country.

There is no doubt that the bolded statement is true, but we have to realize that 35 mpg each is a lot. Kyle and Nolan only played more than 35mpg 16 times in 40 games last season, and that was with Dre being the only other guard that played any significant minutes (12.6 mpg). I think that Kyle and Nolan will have games where one or both plays 38+ minutes but I think that throughout the season, even in big games, they will play between 30-32 mpg. That may not sound like much but 6-8mpg between them are a lot of extra minutes for a guy like Dre or Seth.

[airowe]

To be fair to Bob, his response to my question indicates that his minutes projection is for the high stakes games.

To be fair to me, I was not responding to Bob. Minutes distribution during high stakes games is a whole other topic. Hopefully, we'll have a big enough lead early on where we can sit our stars for a good 8-10 minutes ;)

[COYS]

There is no doubt that the bolded statement is true, but we have to realize that 35 mpg each is a lot. Kyle and Nolan only played more than 35mpg 16 times in 40 games last season, and that was with Dre being the only other guard that played any significant minutes (12.6 mpg). I think that Kyle and Nolan will have games where one or both plays 38+ minutes but I think that throughout the season, even in big games, they will play between 30-32 mpg. That may not sound like much but 6-8mpg between them are a lot of extra minutes for a guy like Dre or Seth.

I guess here we just agree to disagree. Coach K does a really good job figuring out what the most effective lineup is for any given Duke team. He then tries to get it on the floor as much as possible. Smith and Singler will almost certainly be 2/5ths of our best possible lineup combinations. I also find it unlikely that we will play without either of those two in the game for any significant stretch. I think this necessitates that they play 35mpg each in big games, with the ten minutes they spend on the bench coming when the other is on the court (i.e. Smith sits while Kyle plays and Kyle rests while Smith plays). While we will have quality depth, Singler is still a unique player on the team. He has the ability to guard multiple positions, has the size to rebound, and has the offensive prowess to always be a threat to score. No one on the team will be able to replace Singler, and for that reason, I think he definitely plays 35 minutes in most big games barring a blowout.

[COYS]

To be fair to me, I was not responding to Bob. Minutes distribution during high stakes games is a whole other topic. Hopefully, we'll have a big enough lead early on where we can sit our stars for a good 8-10 minutes ;)

In that case, we are in complete agreement =).

[Big Pappa]

To be fair to me, I was not responding to Bob. Minutes distribution during high stakes games is a whole other topic. Hopefully, we'll have a big enough lead early on where we can sit our stars for a good 8-10 minutes ;)


In that case, we are in complete agreement =).

We may disagree on the mpg for Kyle and Nolan but like you said, we can both completely agree on this :).

[Kedsy]

I believe our guard depth will keep Irving's minutes per game down. Seth Curry and Andre Dawkins are both experienced sophomores who are going to play significant minutes. Dawkins played 12.5 minutes per game as a freshman and I expect his minutes to rise. Everything I've heard about Curry indicates he is too good to keep off the court so with there being a finite number of minutes available, Irving logging 22 mpg seems reasonable to me.

Assuming we play a 3-guard line-up for 15 minutes per game, I could see the minutes divided: Smith (35), Irving (22), Curry (20), and Dawkins (18). Perhaps Smith only plays 32 mpg while Irving plays 25.

I agree with you about the guard depth; it's just that I believe those minutes will come from Nolan (and Kyle) and not from Kyrie. I couldn't argue with 32 and 25, though.



I agree wholeheartedly with you that when the talent is available, Coach Krzyzewski utilizes his bench. The Coach K has a short rotation myth doesn't stand up when the numbers are crunched such as you did in your post.

The rationale behind my prediction of 36, 35, and 25 minutes per game for Kyle, Nolan, and Miles is Coach K has been profoundly influenced by the success achieved this past season while playing a senior laden line-up. Coach K is going to keep those three experienced players on the court as much as possible.

He's always liked to play his experienced players, sometimes for a lot of minutes. But with all the depth he's going to have, I just can't bring myself to believe he'll play Nolan and Kyle for more than 32 or 33 per game. Again, possibly in the biggest games, but not on average.


I guess here we just agree to disagree. Coach K does a really good job figuring out what the most effective lineup is for any given Duke team. He then tries to get it on the floor as much as possible. Smith and Singler will almost certainly be 2/5ths of our best possible lineup combinations. I also find it unlikely that we will play without either of those two in the game for any significant stretch. I think this necessitates that they play 35mpg each in big games, with the ten minutes they spend on the bench coming when the other is on the court (i.e. Smith sits while Kyle plays and Kyle rests while Smith plays). While we will have quality depth, Singler is still a unique player on the team. He has the ability to guard multiple positions, has the size to rebound, and has the offensive prowess to always be a threat to score. No one on the team will be able to replace Singler, and for that reason, I think he definitely plays 35 minutes in most big games barring a blowout.

Well, you would have said exactly the same thing about Jason Williams in 2001, right? Or Carlos Boozer, in 2002 (I would have said 2001, except he was injured for a good part of it, so I didn't think it was the best example)? Or JJ Redick in 2004? Elton Brand and Trajan Langdon in 1999? Bobby Hurley, Christian Laettner, and Grant Hill in 1992? (And I could go on and on, but I won't.) They were all part of our best lineup, they were all fairly unique/irreplaceable players on the team. But none of those guys played anything close to 35 mpg. In fact, only two of them (Hurley, 33.6, and Laettner, 32.2) played as many as 32 mpg.

There will be plenty of time when either Nolan or Kyle can sit, with all the capable replacements we'll have. Next year will be very different from this year, in many ways.

[Newton_14]

This is a well thought out post, Bob, but I have a couple of quibbles. First, you are underselling Kyrie's minutes. You are right K has a history of handing the keys to freshmen guards, but when he does so, he really hands them the keys. The players you named -- Dawkins (35.8 mpg his freshman year), Amaker (36.3), Hurley (33.4), Capel (26.4), Williams (34.0), and Redick (30.7) all played significantly more than the 22 minutes you're giving Kyrie. So history would suggest he'll get at least 26 to 30 minutes per game.

As to whether it's reasonable to expect Nolan and Kyle to log 35+ minutes again this year, I don't quite agree with your reasoning -- last year we had four guards/wings, including a young freshman who wasn't quite ready to log many minutes in ACC and tournament games. That's why Jon, Nolan, and Kyle played so many minutes. This year with much more depth, they'll play less. Duke's history under K is filled with upperclassmen whose minutes went down when the team's depth went up.

Whether they log 35+, 32+, or 30+ historically is a matter of how deep the rotation goes. If you count the "regular rotation" as players who logged 10+ minutes per game (adjusted so DNPs are counted as zero minutes), in the K era we've been six deep 4 times, seven deep 11 times, eight deep 9 times, and nine deep 6 times.

If you assume we'll go eight deep, this has happened nine times:

year # 35+ mpg
---- -----------
1982 2
1983 1
1987 1
1993 1
1995 1

1988 0
1989 0
1999 0
2010 2 (Note: Nolan didn't play 35+ mpg if you count his DNPs as zero minutes)

Notice that we've generally had 35+ minute players on an 8-deep team when the overall talent level of the team is a little down, with the sole exception of this past season. My guess is Kyle and Nolan play 30 to 32 mpg next year.

If you assume we'll go nine deep (as I do), we've only had even one 35+ mpg player once, in 2003 -- a year like 2010 when we only had four players for the guard/wing positions. Further, for a nine-deep team, your overall number of 140 minutes for the starters (or, more accurately in my research, five top minute loggers) is possible but not likely:

year mpg for "starters"
---- -----------------
1990 140
1991 135
1997 133
1998 125
2003 144 (an outlier due to having only 4 players for 3 positions)
2009 133

So, again, I suspect your numbers for Kyle and Nolan are a bit high. I also believe your 25 mpg prediction for Miles is a little high (I'd guess 18 to 22).

Anyway, if you assume our depth is similar in quality to 1991, 1997, and 1998, the starters should be in the 133 to 135 range. If you bump Kyrie up from 22 to 26 or 27, it would mean you'd have to reduce the others by around 10 (-3 for Kyle, -3 for Nolan, -4 for Miles?). To me, at least, that would be a more realistic guess.

Although, having said all that, my numbers are over the entire season (I don't have splits between non-league games and ACC games/tournaments). It's very possible that for the last third of the season, your numbers will be right on.

I agree with this outlook and I think we will have a 9 deep rotation next year based on the definition of "rotation player" that you described in your post. There is a lot of talent on this roster and the skillsets vary. Almost no 2 kids alike. They each bring a little something different. I believe K will take full advantage of each of the weapons this team has to offer and throw many different looks at opponents.

I greatly respect Bob Green's opinions on this board and I agree with most of his post, but I have to disagree with the minutes Kyle and Nolan will average. I just don't see a chance at all of either of those guys averaging 35+ minutes over the season. There just won't be a need to do that. There may be a game or two here and there where those 2 "might" play 35 or 36 minutes, but that will be the exception not the rule. I do believe those 2 guys will lead the team in mpg by a good margin, but just don't see them averaging more than say 32 or so mpg.

[CDu]

I greatly respect Bob Green's opinions on this board and I agree with most of his post, but I have to disagree with the minutes Kyle and Nolan will average. I just don't see a chance at all of either of those guys averaging 35+ minutes over the season. There just won't be a need to do that. There may be a game or two here and there where those 2 "might" play 35 or 36 minutes, but that will be the exception not the rule. I do believe those 2 guys will lead the team in mpg by a good margin, but just don't see them averaging more than say 32 or so mpg.

I agree. On top of the lack of need, I think the change in tempo/style of play will dictate fewer minutes as well. They'll still play a lot, and they'll play more than anyone else. But I think the 32mpg range is probably correct.

I also anticipate that Irving will play more than 22mpg. Basically, Irving/Curry will effectively get those extra minutes that Bob had allotted Singler and Smith. So the bench will see about the same number of minutes as Bob suggested.

[Bob Green]

I greatly respect Bob Green's opinions on this board and I agree with most of his post, but I have to disagree with the minutes Kyle and Nolan will average. I just don't see a chance at all of either of those guys averaging 35+ minutes over the season. There just won't be a need to do that. There may be a game or two here and there where those 2 "might" play 35 or 36 minutes, but that will be the exception not the rule. I do believe those 2 guys will lead the team in mpg by a good margin, but just don't see them averaging more than say 32 or so mpg.

Thank you for the props! In regard to my minutes per game predictions for Singler and Smith, I believe we will have a deep nine man rotation, but Singler and Smith will still average 35 or 36 minutes per game. This past season, we had eight players average 12 or more minutes per game and three of the eight averaged over 35 minutes each.

Scheyer: 36.8
Singler: 35.9
Smith: 35.5
Thomas: 25.3
Zoubek: 18.7
Miles P: 16.4
Mason P: 14.1
Dawkins: 12.6

Expanding the rotation to nine players averaging 12 or more minutes per game, while two average 35+ seems reasonable to me.

[Big Pappa]

I agree. On top of the lack of need, I think the change in tempo/style of play will dictate fewer minutes as well. They'll still play a lot, and they'll play more than anyone else. But I think the 32mpg range is probably correct.

I also anticipate that Irving will play more than 22mpg. Basically, Irving/Curry will effectively get those extra minutes that Bob had allotted Singler and Smith. So the bench will see about the same number of minutes as Bob suggested.

This makes the most sense to me. I think what is happening is that many people are getting caught up on last year. I did a quick bit of digging and the last time that we had multiple guys play 35+ minutes per game (other than last year) was the 1999-2000 season with Battier and Carrawell. To find it happening again you have to go all the way back to the 1983-1984 season with Amaker and Dawkins. Basically since 1985, it has happened two times in the last 25 years. I just don't see it happening again next year.

[COYS]

I agree with you about the guard depth; it's just that I believe those minutes will come from Nolan (and Kyle) and not from Kyrie. I couldn't argue with 32 and 25, though.




He's always liked to play his experienced players, sometimes for a lot of minutes. But with all the depth he's going to have, I just can't bring myself to believe he'll play Nolan and Kyle for more than 32 or 33 per game. Again, possibly in the biggest games, but not on average.



Well, you would have said exactly the same thing about Jason Williams in 2001, right? Or Carlos Boozer, in 2002 (I would have said 2001, except he was injured for a good part of it, so I didn't think it was the best example)? Or JJ Redick in 2004? Elton Brand and Trajan Langdon in 1999? Bobby Hurley, Christian Laettner, and Grant Hill in 1992? (And I could go on and on, but I won't.) They were all part of our best lineup, they were all fairly unique/irreplaceable players on the team. But none of those guys played anything close to 35 mpg. In fact, only two of them (Hurley, 33.6, and Laettner, 32.2) played as many as 32 mpg.

There will be plenty of time when either Nolan or Kyle can sit, with all the capable replacements we'll have. Next year will be very different from this year, in many ways.

Right, but in the big games to which I was referring those guys all played major minutes. My belief is that Nolan and Kyle will average somewhere between 30 and 32 minutes per game next season but in big games they'll play 35+ minutes with Kyle the most likely to pull out a few 38-40 minutes games.

[Kedsy]

Thank you for the props! In regard to my minutes per game predictions for Singler and Smith, I believe we will have a deep nine man rotation, but Singler and Smith will still average 35 or 36 minutes per game. This past season, we had eight players average 12 or more minutes per game and three of the eight averaged over 35 minutes each.

Scheyer: 36.8
Singler: 35.9
Smith: 35.5
Thomas: 25.3
Zoubek: 18.7
Miles P: 16.4
Mason P: 14.1
Dawkins: 12.6

Expanding the rotation to nine players averaging 12 or more minutes per game, while two average 35+ seems reasonable to me.

I don't know that it changes your overall hypothesis all that much, but the mpg figures you are citing do not take DNPs into account, and are therefore a little misleading. Counting DNPs as zero minutes, Nolan only averaged 33.7 mpg, Mason only averaged 12.0, and Andre averaged 11.9.

You predict Kyle will keep his minutes and Nolan will get Jon's, less 2. You had Miles at 25, so give him all of Lance's minutes. You had Mason at 22 minutes, so give him Z's minutes plus 2 of Jon's and 1 of (last year's) Nolan's (bringing that slot down to 32.7). The ninth guy on this past year's team was Ryan, with 5.7 mpg (adjusted), so we really only have to find 6 minutes, and if we take them from (last year's) Nolan, we'd have that slot at 26.7, which is not an unreasonable amount to give to Kyrie. So far so good.

What I think the problem is with your theory is that the last four guys in your 9-man rotation are left with 16.4, 12, 11.9, and 11.7. Personally, I think Seth, Andre, and Ryan will play more than 16.4, 12, and 11.9 mpg, respectively. So I would take 3 mpg from Kyle, 4 from Miles, and 3 from (this coming year's) Nolan, and give them to Seth, Andre, and Ryan, (19.4, 16, 14.7). I still believe all three of them will probably play a few more minutes than that, but at least it's reasonable. Nobody could say with a reasonable degree of certainty that it would be wrong after those adjustments.


Right, but in the big games to which I was referring those guys all played major minutes. My belief is that Nolan and Kyle will average somewhere between 30 and 32 minutes per game next season but in big games they'll play 35+ minutes with Kyle the most likely to pull out a few 38-40 minutes games.

I don't know if that's exactly how it will play out or not, but your theory is certainly reasonable. Without being Coach K (and maybe even him, at this point in the year), I don't think anyone could persuasively argue against what you are saying here.

[Bob Green]

I'm having a lot of fun participating in this discussion. Everyone is introducing good points and backing their opinion with stats and examples from previous seasons. It is threads such as this one, which make Duke Basketball Report a special place to hang around.

Sticking within the "Starting lineup with Singler back?" theme, but moving away from the minutes per game Singler and Smith are going to play next season discussion, I'd like to expound on my thoughts about the Brothers Plumlee.

I previously stated:


In fact, I believe the fulcrum for success in 2010-11 will be the development and play of the Brothers Plumlee. We need to be able to defend inside and score points via our Big Men so the Plumlees mastering Coach K's help defense concepts, staying out of foul trouble and improving offensively are three items I'd have at the top of any "Things to Watch in 2010-11" list. I cannot overstate how vital I believe Miles and Mason will be next season.

Taking a couple of things for granted (which is always dangerous) such as 1) Singler and Smith having spectacular senior seasons, and 2) Kyrie Irving living up to expectations, our ability to challenge to repeat as National Champions, and let's not kid ourselves, we all highly desire to repeat and a good many of us expect to repeat even if we aren't willing to publicly state the obvious, leaves our frontcourt performance as the intangible or X Factor going forward.

Miles Plumlee is a player who really impresses me because he plays so hard. His upside is huge. He showed flashes of brilliance as a freshman, improved dramatically as a sophomore, and with continued development could be an All-ACC caliber big man as a junior. Specifically, he must become consistent and he must work hard on being able to score the basketball via various ways. The jump hook and midrange jumper are two elements to his game which Miles should be working toward turning into lethal weapons. If his defender has to cover him tightly 15-17 feet away from the basket, Miles has the athleticism to blow by that defender and finish with authority. If his defender gives him some room, Miles must make him pay by knocking down the shot.

I'm excited at the prospect of just how good Mason Plumlee might be as a sophomore. The cerebral part of the game is where Mason really needs to improve. If he can stop the silly reach in fouls and the tendency to try and do too much, his through the roof athleticism and skill will raise his game to new heights. One thing he definitely needs to be working hard on over the summer is finishing on alley oop passes. This is an example of where he tries to do too much in that he is so focused on throwing down a monsterous dunk that he losses control of the ball or slams it off the back of the rim. With speedster Kyrie Irving running the point, and Mason's ability to run the court, he should be on the receiving end of a lot of passes for dunks.

Defensive improvement must be a point of emphasis over the summer. Both brothers had a tendency to get lost in the rotations at time resulting in easy baskets for our opponent. Miles and Mason must grasp the help defense concepts if they are going to be on the court together for major minutes. It is easy for fans to focus on a player's offense, especially in the off season, but Coach Krzyzewski is a defense first coach and the Brothers Plumlee are going to have to perform in order to play the minutes I'm projecting.

I've rambled on long enough. Hopefully, my thoughts will generate a lot more discussion in this entertaining thread as I'm interested to hear opinions from everyone on Miles and Mason, what are their strengths and weaknesses, where they need to improve and how they will perform next season.

[Big Pappa]

Miles Plumlee is a player who really impresses me because he plays so hard. His upside is huge. He showed flashes of brilliance as a freshman, improved dramatically as a sophomore, and with continued development could be an All-ACC caliber big man as a junior. Specifically, he must become consistent and he must work hard on being able to score the basketball via various ways. The jump hook and midrange jumper are two elements to his game which Miles should be working toward turning into lethal weapons. If his defender has to cover him tightly 15-17 feet away from the basket, Miles has the athleticism to blow by that defender and finish with authority. If his defender gives him some room, Miles must make him pay by knocking down the shot.

I'm excited at the prospect of just how good Mason Plumlee might be as a sophomore. The cerebral part of the game is where Mason really needs to improve. If he can stop the silly reach in fouls and the tendency to try and do too much, his through the roof athleticism and skill will raise his game to new heights. One thing he definitely needs to be working hard on over the summer is finishing on alley oop passes. This is an example of where he tries to do too much in that he is so focused on throwing down a monsterous dunk that he losses control of the ball or slams it off the back of the rim. With speedster Kyrie Irving running the point, and Mason's ability to run the court, he should be on the receiving end of a lot of passes for dunks.

Defensive improvement must be a point of emphasis over the summer. Both brothers had a tendency to get lost in the rotations at time resulting in easy baskets for our opponent. Miles and Mason must grasp the help defense concepts if they are going to be on the court together for major minutes. It is easy for fans to focus on a player's offense, especially in the off season, but Coach Krzyzewski is a defense first coach and the Brothers Plumlee are going to have to perform in order to play the minutes I'm projecting.

I've rambled on long enough. Hopefully, my thoughts will generate a lot more discussion in this entertaining thread as I'm interested to hear opinions from everyone on Miles and Mason, what are their strengths and weaknesses, where they need to improve and how they will perform next season.

First, I would like to say that I very much enjoy your posts because you consistently bring valuable insight in a positive way. Now, in regard to the Brothers Plumlee, I very much agree with most of your needs for improvement but I would like to highlight a few.

Miles: Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but I don't understand why it seems as though many people on this board have written off Miles to the bench. Not including him in the starting lineup doesn't make sense to me. Aside from Kyle and Nolan he is our most experienced player in regard to playing time and starts. Also, if you think that he is not athletic or skilled enough to compete down low in the ACC or anywhere in the country, you must not have been watching the same Miles Plumlee I have. His athleticism is sometimes over-shadowed by Mason but if Miles were the only Plumlee on our team I guarantee we would be talking about what an amazing athlete he is regularly. He does have work to do but as Bob said, he has shown flashes of brilliance as well as improvement throughout his career at Duke.

Mason: There is no doubt in my mind that Mason can be the best big man in the ACC next year and top 5 in the country. But, that being said, he does need to work on the basketball IQ part of his game. He tends to try and do too much at times, but in his defense he wasn't given many opportunities with his back to the basket this last year.

Defense is always a key in a Duke basketball team and that is something that both Plumlees need work on. Defense is something that you have to have time to get into the groove of the game. It seemed to me that last year, when given the minutes they were able to get into a groove and play well on both ends, particularly defensively. For example, when Mason was given 21 minutes against Penn he tallied 7 boards, 4 steals, 2 assists, and 18 points on 7-10 shooting. Another example is the 26 minutes against Ga Tech - he had 6 boards, 3 assists, 2 blocks, a steal, and 10 points on 5-6 shooting. The same goes for Miles. Miles started and played more than 15 minutes 16 times. In those 16 games he tallied 17 blocks, 10 steals, and averaged over 7 boards per game. When given 32 minutes in the Wake game he tallied 14 boards and 19 points.

In conclusion, with hard work on a few key areas in the off-season and consistent starter minutes next year, I think that the Brothers Plumlee will prove to be one of the top frontcourt combos in the ACC and possibly the country.

[Kedsy]

Defensive improvement must be a point of emphasis over the summer. Both brothers had a tendency to get lost in the rotations at time resulting in easy baskets for our opponent. Miles and Mason must grasp the help defense concepts if they are going to be on the court together for major minutes. It is easy for fans to focus on a player's offense, especially in the off season, but Coach Krzyzewski is a defense first coach and the Brothers Plumlee are going to have to perform in order to play the minutes I'm projecting.

Seems to me we have a host of offensive weapons. If Miles and Mason can simply deliver alley oop finishes and a few offensive putbacks it would be enough for us offensively. I'm not saying that's all they'll do -- they both have enormous potential -- I'm saying we don't need any more from them on offense.

As far as I'm concerned the area where the Plumlees hold the keys is defense. They lost their man a lot last year (especially on backdoor cuts) and sometimes gave away too much in their zeal to block shots (I remember one game where Mason seemed to intentionally let someone drive past him so he could gather himself to block the guy from behind; then he mistimed it and it was an easy layup, but he never should have let the guy by in the first place).

I expect our perimeter defense to be suffocating next year, which could lead to a lot of ill-advised throw-towards-the-middle-and-hope passes by the opposition. Our interior defenders need to (a) pick off as many of those passes as possible; (b) defend the other team's bigs well enough so that they don't catch those passes in position for an easy score; (c) stay in position to keep the other team off the offensive boards; and (d) be ready to block the shot if the other team's guards manage to get by their man.

It's going to take our opponents a great deal of effort to break past the quick hands and feet of Kyrie, Seth, and Nolan. For an opposing guard to expend all that effort only to be confronted by two massive shotblockers and no obvious open teammates it will be tremendously demoralizing. If we can get to the point where our interior defense is a strength we're going to be scary good.

[DukieInBrasil]

Miles: Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but I don't understand why it seems as though many people on this board have written off Miles to the bench. Not including him in the starting lineup doesn't make sense to me. Aside from Kyle and Nolan he is our most experienced player in regard to playing time and starts. Also, if you think that he is not athletic or skilled enough to compete down low in the ACC or anywhere in the country, you must not have been watching the same Miles Plumlee I have. His athleticism is sometimes over-shadowed by Mason but if Miles were the only Plumlee on our team I guarantee we would be talking about what an amazing athlete he is regularly. He does have work to do but as Bob said, he has shown flashes of brilliance as well as improvement throughout his career at Duke.

Mason: There is no doubt in my mind that Mason can be the best big man in the ACC next year and top 5 in the country. But, that being said, he does need to work on the basketball IQ part of his game. He tends to try and do too much at times, but in his defense he wasn't given many opportunities with his back to the basket this last year.

Defense is always a key in a Duke basketball team and that is something that both Plumlees need work on. Defense is something that you have to have time to get into the groove of the game. It seemed to me that last year, when given the minutes they were able to get into a groove and play well on both ends, particularly defensively. For example, when Mason was given 21 minutes against Penn he tallied 7 boards, 4 steals, 2 assists, and 18 points on 7-10 shooting. Another example is the 26 minutes against Ga Tech - he had 6 boards, 3 assists, 2 blocks, a steal, and 10 points on 5-6 shooting. The same goes for Miles. Miles started and played more than 15 minutes 16 times. In those 16 games he tallied 17 blocks, 10 steals, and averaged over 7 boards per game. When given 32 minutes in the Wake game he tallied 14 boards and 19 points.


Yeah, I don't understand why anyone thinks Miles wouldn't start next year, he started half of last year.
This may just be semantics but what you call being "given minutes" can also be viewed as "earning minutes". When the MPs were able to control their games and committed fewer errors they were able to earn the minutes in which they got to show off their talent/potential. So, when the MPs are "earning" their minutes it seems natural that they would do nice things like grab rebounds, score, get steals and blocks. Several games can be found where the two essentially got no playing time because they just didn't produce. Other games, like most of the tourney, they were effective on a per minute basis, but LT and Z were just playing too vitally for the MPs to take those minutes. Nobody on next year's team is going to be taking their minutes, they will only not get minutes if they don't earn them. I think a lot of learning took place between the MPs and they'll be given lots of minutes because they'll show that they've earned them.
I'm very up on the MPs, they showed me enough last year to get me excited about them going into next year.

[Waynne]

I'm having a lot of fun participating in this discussion. Everyone is introducing good points and backing their opinion with stats and examples from previous seasons. It is threads such as this one, which make Duke Basketball Report a special place to hang around.

Sticking within the "Starting lineup with Singler back?" theme, but moving away from the minutes per game Singler and Smith are going to play next season discussion, I'd like to expound on my thoughts about the Brothers Plumlee.

I previously stated:



Taking a couple of things for granted (which is always dangerous) such as 1) Singler and Smith having spectacular senior seasons, and 2) Kyrie Irving living up to expectations, our ability to challenge to repeat as National Champions, and let's not kid ourselves, we all highly desire to repeat and a good many of us expect to repeat even if we aren't willing to publicly state the obvious, leaves our frontcourt performance as the intangible or X Factor going forward.

Miles Plumlee is a player who really impresses me because he plays so hard. His upside is huge. He showed flashes of brilliance as a freshman, improved dramatically as a sophomore, and with continued development could be an All-ACC caliber big man as a junior. Specifically, he must become consistent and he must work hard on being able to score the basketball via various ways. The jump hook and midrange jumper are two elements to his game which Miles should be working toward turning into lethal weapons. If his defender has to cover him tightly 15-17 feet away from the basket, Miles has the athleticism to blow by that defender and finish with authority. If his defender gives him some room, Miles must make him pay by knocking down the shot.

I'm excited at the prospect of just how good Mason Plumlee might be as a sophomore. The cerebral part of the game is where Mason really needs to improve. If he can stop the silly reach in fouls and the tendency to try and do too much, his through the roof athleticism and skill will raise his game to new heights. One thing he definitely needs to be working hard on over the summer is finishing on alley oop passes. This is an example of where he tries to do too much in that he is so focused on throwing down a monsterous dunk that he losses control of the ball or slams it off the back of the rim. With speedster Kyrie Irving running the point, and Mason's ability to run the court, he should be on the receiving end of a lot of passes for dunks.

Defensive improvement must be a point of emphasis over the summer. Both brothers had a tendency to get lost in the rotations at time resulting in easy baskets for our opponent. Miles and Mason must grasp the help defense concepts if they are going to be on the court together for major minutes. It is easy for fans to focus on a player's offense, especially in the off season, but Coach Krzyzewski is a defense first coach and the Brothers Plumlee are going to have to perform in order to play the minutes I'm projecting.

I've rambled on long enough. Hopefully, my thoughts will generate a lot more discussion in this entertaining thread as I'm interested to hear opinions from everyone on Miles and Mason, what are their strengths and weaknesses, where they need to improve and how they will perform next season.

Agree with you on all points. We should be the best perimeter team in college basketball next season, so one big question is how well our frontcourt players develop over the summer. Miles and Mason both have huge potential, but both have a ways to go on both ends of the court before they will he high-level ACC players.

Miles has a decent 15-17 foot jump shot but he needs to work on ways to score around the basket, particularly with his back to the basket. I'm don't know what Mason's offensive skills are because I mostly saw dunk attempts and a few three point shots this year. He obviously can score a lot points with dunks if he doesn't try for a highlight reel every time, but he's got to develop more offensive skills to be a big-time scoring threat. It will be very interesting to see what kind of offensive player he intends to be.

Even more important, as Bob suggests, is whether both can improve defensively. We shouldn't have too much trouble scoring next season, but way too often this year Miles or Mason lost their man inside, resulting in easy buckets. That can't happen next season if we are to be NC contenders. Both need to master rotation and help defense, and work on getting back much more quickly. Defensively we are going to miss Lance and Zoubs, but the Plumlees certainly are capable of becoming good defensive players if they are willing to focus on that part of the game. A big key to our season will be whether they do so.

[Big Pappa]

Miles has a decent 15-17 foot jump shot but he needs to work on ways to score around the basket, particularly with his back to the basket. I'm don't know what Mason's offensive skills are because I mostly saw dunk attempts and a few three point shots this year. He obviously can score a lot points with dunks if he doesn't try for a highlight reel every time, but he's got to develop more offensive skills to be a big-time scoring threat. It will be very interesting to see what kind of offensive player he intends to be.


He only took 8 threes and at least half were forced up at the end of the shot clock. Mason actually has a good back-to-the-basket game. I have seen film of him at Christ School as well as all the practices from the Final Four and his post game is more than adequate. Unlike many other big men in the country Mason looks comfortable with the ball in his hands and his back to the basket - at least in practice.

[Waynne]

He only took 8 threes and at least half were forced up at the end of the shot clock. Mason actually has a good back-to-the-basket game. I have seen film of him at Christ School as well as all the practices from the Final Four and his post game is more than adequate. Unlike many other big men in the country Mason looks comfortable with the ball in his hands and his back to the basket - at least in practice.

OK, thanks, that is good to know. I don't remember him playing much this year with his back to the basket, so I hope we get to see him utilize those skills in games next season. It would be great to have a weapon in the paint to go with all our superb perimeter players.

[Newton_14]

I'd like to expound on my thoughts about the Brothers Plumlee.


Taking a couple of things for granted (which is always dangerous) such as 1) Singler and Smith having spectacular senior seasons, and 2) Kyrie Irving living up to expectations,

Miles Plumlee is a player who really impresses me because he plays so hard. His upside is huge. He showed flashes of brilliance as a freshman, improved dramatically as a sophomore, and with continued development could be an All-ACC caliber big man as a junior. Specifically, he must become consistent and he must work hard on being able to score the basketball via various ways. The jump hook and midrange jumper are two elements to his game which Miles should be working toward turning into lethal weapons. If his defender has to cover him tightly 15-17 feet away from the basket, Miles has the athleticism to blow by that defender and finish with authority. If his defender gives him some room, Miles must make him pay by knocking down the shot.

I'm excited at the prospect of just how good Mason Plumlee might be as a sophomore. The cerebral part of the game is where Mason really needs to improve. If he can stop the silly reach in fouls and the tendency to try and do too much, his through the roof athleticism and skill will raise his game to new heights. One thing he definitely needs to be working hard on over the summer is finishing on alley oop passes. This is an example of where he tries to do too much in that he is so focused on throwing down a monsterous dunk that he losses control of the ball or slams it off the back of the rim. With speedster Kyrie Irving running the point, and Mason's ability to run the court, he should be on the receiving end of a lot of passes for dunks.

Defensive improvement must be a point of emphasis over the summer. Both brothers had a tendency to get lost in the rotations at time resulting in easy baskets for our opponent. Miles and Mason must grasp the help defense concepts if they are going to be on the court together for major minutes. It is easy for fans to focus on a player's offense, especially in the off season, but Coach Krzyzewski is a defense first coach and the Brothers Plumlee are going to have to perform in order to play the minutes I'm projecting.


Good stuff Bob and here is where we agree the most. I am a big fan of Miles and believe he has tremendous upside. If he ends up putting on 15 to 20 more pounds (not sure if that is possible) he could turn into a beast down low.

Even with his current size he can be really good. One thing that hurts Miles in my opinion, is he does not realize how good he is already. If he can get the mental game figured out, and learn when to make "move A" or "move B", meaning make the right decision, he could be an outstanding player. And I mean that on both ends of the floor. He improved quite a bit from year 1 to year 2 and I see no reason why he can't continue the progression with a "big jump" in that progression somewhere along the way.

With that, Mason is a different type player than Miles, but he too has a chance to be special player. And like Miles, most of the immediate improvement with Mason is on the mental side.

We said this year that the play of the Plumlee's will dictate how far the team could go. We were wrong. But, I do believe that is a correct statement for next year. The backcourt and wing positions are superb. If the frontcourt guys can become a solid force, this team will be hard to deal with.

So while we disagree on the minutes Nolan and Kyle will average, we very much agree on the rest of the puzzle.

Good times ahead. I wish the season started tomorrow. For now I am anxiously waiting to learn which of our guys will be playing in the Summer League at Central. I suggest we establish a "DBR fan section" this year and committ to catching some of the games together. That would be great!

[Bob Green]

One thing that hurts Miles in my opinion, is he does not realize how good he is already. If he can get the mental game figured out, and learn when to make "move A" or "move B", meaning make the right decision, he could be an outstanding player. And I mean that on both ends of the floor. He improved quite a bit from year 1 to year 2 and I see no reason why he can't continue the progression with a "big jump" in that progression somewhere along the way.

I agree with you. Many players do not play up to their potential due to issues such as being lazy or disappearing from the flow of the game, however, Miles doesn't have those issues. He plays hard all the time but doesn't seem to always take advantage of his strength and raw skills. He can be a beast in the post once he has gains an understanding of how much talent he possesses. Simply stated, next season, he will be better than the player guarding him most nights. I truly believe Miles Plumlee will earn All-ACC honors as a junior.

[DukieInBrasil]

I agree with you. Many players do not play up to their potential due to issues such as being lazy or disappearing from the flow of the game, however, Miles doesn't have those issues. He plays hard all the time but doesn't seem to always take advantage of his strength and raw skills. He can be a beast in the post once he has gains an understanding of how much talent he possesses. Simply stated, next season, he will be better than the player guarding him most nights. I truly believe Miles Plumlee will earn All-ACC honors as a junior.

Wow, that's some high praise, but I also think he has the potential to do that. But the mental thing mentioned before is his barrier to making All-ACC. Good big guys in the ACC are either a) lacking or b) going to the NBA, so Miles' only real barrier to being an All-ACC performer next year is himself.
I would put Mason in that category too right now, that he is the only barrier to getting accolades and/or recognition, which usually means one has played really well. But would I say that Mason is therefore a potential All-ACC performer next year? I guess, but I think Miles has a higher probability of the honor.
Could they both be All-ACC? Maybe on different teams, ie., 1st team and 2nd or 3rd team All-ACC. Have brothers ever done that in the same year in the ACC?

[jimsumner]

If Miles Plumlee becomes All-ACC next season, Duke goes from tough-to-beat to darn-near-impossible-to-beat.

But that's a big if. On a team where he's sharing shots and touches with Kyle Singler, Nolan Smith, Kyrie Irving, Seth Curry, Andre Dawkins, Ryan Kelly and his brother, I'm hard-pressed to see how he scores enough to gain all-conference accolades.

And rebounding and/or defensive specialists need not apply for All-ACC. Not saying that's right but that's the way it is. How many all-conference votes did Billy King get back in 1988 when he was the best defender in the nation? Or that Zoubek kid and all those rebounds he got down the stretch in 2010?

It's a tantalizing thought, no doubt. But where do the shots come from?

[Welcome2DaSlopes]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1L3CXon8Ve0&feature=related

[Big Pappa]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1L3CXon8Ve0&feature=related

So clean. I just wish it all started tomorrow.

[Bob Green]

If Miles Plumlee becomes All-ACC next season, Duke goes from tough-to-beat to darn-near-impossible-to-beat....But that's a big if....where do the shots come from?

Good question. Perhaps I've overplayed my hand again as I have a tendency to allow my optimism to get the best of me.

The last guy to make All-ACC last season was Soloman Alabi who received 30 votes. Alabi averaged 11.7 points and 6.2 rebounds per game. Miles averaged 5.2 points and 4.9 rebounds so it is reasonable to assume he will need to at least double his points production in order to compete for All-ACC honors. I believe it is possible because Miles should see a significant increase in minutes played next season, but as Jim Sumner points out, Miles will be sharing the court with some very talented teammates.

[InSpades]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1L3CXon8Ve0&feature=related

It's a good feeling when Duke wins the national championship and next year's team might be better than this year's team. From the video... Seth has Chris Collins like range.

[COYS]

It's a good feeling when Duke wins the national championship and next year's team might be better than this year's team. From the video... Seth has Chris Collins like range.

Yeah, but where are the dunks? ;)

[MisterRoddy]

How tall is Seth Curry? From what I gather he's about an inch or two shorter than his brother who is 6'3. Is this correct?

[SCMatt33]

How tall is Seth Curry? From what I gather he's about an inch or two shorter than his brother who is 6'3. Is this correct?

He's listed at 6'1" so you would be spot on.

[Jderf]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1L3CXon8Ve0&feature=related

The kid can break some ankles. Hope his 3pt field goal percentage is actually 100% just like in the video. Anything else and I'll be disappointed.

[Big Pappa]

Good question. Perhaps I've overplayed my hand again as I have a tendency to allow my optimism to get the best of me.

The last guy to make All-ACC last season was Soloman Alabi who received 30 votes. Alabi averaged 11.7 points and 6.2 rebounds per game. Miles averaged 5.2 points and 4.9 rebounds so it is reasonable to assume he will need to at least double his points production in order to compete for All-ACC honors. I believe it is possible because Miles should see a significant increase in minutes played next season, but as Jim Sumner points out, Miles will be sharing the court with some very talented teammates.

I agree with you about Miles, but the great thing is I think that it is totally realistic to say that any one of our projected starting five (Kyrie, Nolan, Kyle, Miles, or Mason) have a great chance of being All-ACC next year. Please don't misunderstand me and think I'm saying that they all will be, but each of them have a great chance.

[kingboozer]

I smell another ACC Tournament championship on the horizon

[greybeard]

The reaching issue, which has plagued Miles and Mason and frustrated so many, could threaten how far this team can go.

Yes, it is a mental issue, but, in my opinion, not in the way that term is commonly being used. Mental suggests a mistake of choice, that it is the decision to move toward the ball, to reach for it, that is the problem--that the Plumlees should just stop it.

I think that it has to do with how they both go about reaching, and that that same issue of self-organization shows up in and impedes other aspects of their games.

Why do I say this, that is that the problem is in the how they go about making a move on the ball, rather than that they make a move on the ball? Everyone can see how awkward they seem, Mason in particular, in such moments, in making such movements, that's why. As I said, that same awkwardness shows up at other moments for each of them.

Addressing "the how" I believe would pay huge dividends for both Mason and Miles. Huge. Or they can be "trained" to refrain; even saying that makes me want to squirm.

To change the "how" is not something that conventional training is very good at facilitating; in fact, it stinks at it. Yeap, the Method I have been studying for 4 years is the best ever conceived at helping to facilitate such progress.

As Margaret Meade, the famous behavorialist, put it, "The Feldenkrais Method is the most sophisticated and effective method I have seen for the prevention and reversal of deterioration of function." So, if a person has blind spots in elemental aspects of self organization when undertaking certain tasks, and wants to improve, this might be the ticket.

For the terrific athletes that they are, they do look terribly awkward at moments, don't they?

[CEF1959]

The reaching issue, which has plagued Miles and Mason and frustrated so many, could threaten how far this team can go.

Yes, it is a mental issue, but, in my opinion, not in the way that term is commonly being used. Mental suggests a mistake of choice, that it is the decision to move toward the ball, to reach for it, that is the problem--that the Plumlees should just stop it.

I think that it has to do with how they both go about reaching, and that that same issue of self-organization shows up in and impedes other aspects of their games.

Why do I say this, that is that the problem is in the how they go about making a move on the ball, rather than that they make a move on the ball? Everyone can see how awkward they seem, Mason in particular, in such moments, in making such movements, that's why. As I said, that same awkwardness shows up at other moments for each of them.

Addressing "the how" I believe would pay huge dividends for both Mason and Miles. Huge. Or they can be "trained" to refrain; even saying that makes me want to squirm.

To change the "how" is not something that conventional training is very good at facilitating; in fact, it stinks at it. Yeap, the Method I have been studying for 4 years is the best ever conceived at helping to facilitate such progress.

As Margaret Meade, the famous behavorialist, put it, "The Feldenkrais Method is the most sophisticated and effective method I have seen for the prevention and reversal of deterioration of function." So, if a person has blind spots in elemental aspects of self organization when undertaking certain tasks, and wants to improve, this might be the ticket.

For the terrific athletes that they are, they do look terribly awkward at moments, don't they?

Reaching is a mistake. In many things, not all of them physical. :rolleyes:

[chrisheery]

I agree that it is a real problem for Los Dos Plumlees. However, I think there is an exacerbating factor which will not be present next year. Both Plumlees, by the end of the year, when their reaching in was most pronounced to me, were playing limited minutes. In those minutes, they were expected to give good energy and try to show what they could do. In those situations, when one knows he might be taken out any moment, he may be compelled to take risks that he might not otherwise take. If a player knows he will be in almost no matter what he does, and that the team needs him as the game wears on, he may make better decisions about when and how to take chances. It seems to me we saw a similar phenomenon with Zoubek this year. Another thing is that the more a guy plays, the more comfortable the refs are with calling plays that involve him. This also benefited Zoubek this year. He was called much more fairly as the year went on. Perhaps Miles won't get so many fantom calls next year too.

I would also like to see our big men play more containment on the perimeter, daring the other teams big men to shoot a little more. I think it would help with this issue a bit.

[Bob Green]

....I think that it is totally realistic to say that any one of our projected starting five (Kyrie, Nolan, Kyle, Miles, or Mason) have a great chance of being All-ACC next year.....

I agree with you and it is this exact thought process which fuels my sometimes over active optimism. Next year's team has an extremely high ceiling. However, we cannot get ahead of ourselves, and must allow the team to come together and jell as a unit, develop their own personality, etc...While our expectations are high, the players and coaches all know how much work is involved in building a championship team. But there is no doubt in my mind we have the pieces of the puzzle available and the experience and skill to put it all together.

[greybeard]

Reaching is a mistake. In many things, not all of them physical. :rolleyes:

Not bad. Made me chuckle.

On the other hand, I did sort of see Zoubek in different terms than most, and did call Singler's shooting slump as being due to a different orientation in his play (he's an inside out player, who was being made to play outside in and he didn't understand the game from that perspective).

Maybe it's a reach but I believe that Ryan will be most productive, if he is at all next season, as a scorer. Points interior to the perimeter defense that come off well positioned catches and more often than not off a fake pass and then a bounce. That ability to hurt people inside will set up his passing game. I look for Duke to up its inside offensive production when he is in the game. We'll see.

As for the Plumlees, sure it would make sense for them to curb reflexive-type, low percentage reach-ins to steal the ball. That would solve one issue.

But, they do look pretty awkward in those and some other moments, Mason in particular. My somewhat educated guess is that it could pay real dividends for them to come to terms with how they produce those awkward moves (we've seen it in some of the passes they throw as well, not just the reach-in moves, you know the ones, they're usually intercepted and look like the passer is working against himself).

So, we'll see, whether stopping the reach-ins will stop the silly fouls and other failed plays that frustrated so many on the board here, or whether the Plumlees will simply grow with experience and perform with less of this stuff.

I think however two things are reasonably certain with regrad to next year's team. One is that K will need at least one of Plumlees on the floor and out of foul trouble down the stretch in just about every game. A second is that the Plumlees will get many more touches in next year's offense--awkward plays that produce turnovers or missed scores are not what K will be looking for. My suggestion, fix the awkwardness in the reach-ins, and the team will be best served. And, nope, I don't think that that is a reach at all. ;)

[CEF1959]

My suggestion, fix the awkwardness in the reach-ins, and the team will be best served. And, nope, I don't think that that is a reach at all. ;)

Hehe. Well said, and I agree. I do tend toward sympathy and understanding on these issues for MP1 and MP2 though. Not to discount your theory of mechanical problems, but eagerness and impatience may have a lot to do with those defensive lapses. If you are only playing 10 minutes a game and think you have to make every play count, you might get a little jumpy with the hands. Maybe the confidence that comes with being recognized stars with all the PT they can handle will slow the game down for them a bit, and they'll let it come to them more. Natural maturation may resolve a lot of this. Remember all of Mason's over-eager monster-slams off the rim and into the upper deck early in the season?

On the offensive end, I think Miles could put up very solid numbers rather quietly. Kyrie, Kyle, or Nolan slashes to the rim. In moves the helping D uncovering Miles, dish to Miles for an easy 2. It'll be easier when there's no one to move over to cover Miles, because the help would have to leave Kyle or Mason open. Or leave a shooter uncovered on the perimeter.

Next year, I foresee a lot of slashing moves to the basket, followed by dishes inside to open bigs and/or kickouts to good 3pt shooters. Wait, maybe I've seen that movie already....

[greybeard]

Hehe. Well said, and I agree. I do tend toward sympathy and understanding on these issues for MP1 and MP2 though. Not to discount your theory of mechanical problems, but eagerness and impatience may have a lot to do with those defensive lapses. If you are only playing 10 minutes a game and think you have to make every play count, you might get a little jumpy with the hands. Maybe the confidence that comes with being recognized stars with all the PT they can handle will slow the game down for them a bit, and they'll let it come to them more. Natural maturation may resolve a lot of this. Remember all of Mason's over-eager monster-slams off the rim and into the upper deck early in the season?

On the offensive end, I think Miles could put up very solid numbers rather quietly. Kyrie, Kyle, or Nolan slashes to the rim. In moves the helping D uncovering Miles, dish to Miles for an easy 2. It'll be easier when there's no one to move over to cover Miles, because the help would have to leave Kyle or Mason open. Or leave a shooter uncovered on the perimeter.

Next year, I foresee a lot of slashing moves to the basket, followed by dishes inside to open bigs and/or kickouts to good 3pt shooters. Wait, maybe I've seen that movie already....

Well thought out and said. That said, I'd have them take up Judo, or play lots of soccer this summer. Both actually. The former would be extradordinary for their gaining ever greater mastery in creating shifts in their center of gravity for the tasks (whatever they be) at hand. Understanding this dynamic is the key to all effective movement. Soccer would put such awarenessess to use in a fast game which, with regard to the use of passing combinations, would have to be invaluable.

A pleasure chatting about this with you; hoof beats think horses not zebras, I always forget to remember that one.

[Bo_Spice]

How do you guys think the minutes will play out next season? I'm thinking something like,

G - Kyrie Irving (30 MPG)
G - Nolan Smith (34 MPG)
F - Kyle Singler (35 MPG)
F - Miles Plumlee (28 MPG)
F - Mason Plumlee (26 MPG)

6th - Seth Curry (19 MPG)
7th - Andre Dawkins (15 MPG)
8th - Ryan Kelly (12 MPG)
9th - Joshua Hairston (10 MPG)
10th - Carrick Felix (Garbage Minutes)
11th - Tyler Thorton (Garbage Minutes)

[Welcome2DaSlopes]

How do you guys think the minutes will play out next season? I'm thinking something like,

G - Kyrie Irving (30 MPG)
G - Nolan Smith (34 MPG)
F - Kyle Singler (35 MPG)
F - Miles Plumlee (28 MPG)
F - Mason Plumlee (26 MPG)

6th - Seth Curry (19 MPG)
7th - Andre Dawkins (15 MPG)
8th - Ryan Kelly (12 MPG)
9th - Joshua Hairston (10 MPG)
10th - Carrick Felix (Garbage Minutes)
11th - Tyler Thorton (Garbage Minutes)

This is actually one of the best I've seen in this thread, I agree with your minute selection, although at the same time it's just weird seeing Seth only play 19 minutes, but that's what happens when you have so much talent.

[CoBlueDevil]

How do you guys think the minutes will play out next season? I'm thinking something like,

G - Kyrie Irving (30 MPG)
G - Nolan Smith (34 MPG)
F - Kyle Singler (35 MPG)
F - Miles Plumlee (28 MPG)
F - Mason Plumlee (26 MPG)

6th - Seth Curry (19 MPG)
7th - Andre Dawkins (15 MPG)
8th - Ryan Kelly (12 MPG)
9th - Joshua Hairston (10 MPG)
10th - Carrick Felix (Garbage Minutes)
11th - Tyler Thorton (Garbage Minutes)

This is pretty legit. I think that Kyrie could see maybe around 25/26 mins, and miles and mason a little less, maybe 25 for both. Which would allow more minutes for the bench. I wouldnt be surprised to see Curry play in the 20's, with Dre and Kelly both around 15. It's definitely going to be exciting to see what K does.

[dukeballboy88]

i think felix is going to suprise you guys.

[Kedsy]

How do you guys think the minutes will play out next season? I'm thinking something like,

G - Kyrie Irving (30 MPG)
G - Nolan Smith (34 MPG)
F - Kyle Singler (35 MPG)
F - Miles Plumlee (28 MPG)
F - Mason Plumlee (26 MPG)

6th - Seth Curry (19 MPG)
7th - Andre Dawkins (15 MPG)
8th - Ryan Kelly (12 MPG)
9th - Joshua Hairston (10 MPG)
10th - Carrick Felix (Garbage Minutes)
11th - Tyler Thorton (Garbage Minutes)

Well, you have doled out 209 minutes, plus two sets of "garbage minutes". Assuming you expect Carrick and Tyler T to average, say, 1 or 2 minutes a game in garbage time, that puts you at 211 to 213 minutes, which is 11 to 13 minutes higher than is possible. So I might be out on a limb on this, but I don't think your guess is "one of the best I've seen on this thread" nor is it "pretty legit."

Beyond the impossibilities of having more than 200 minutes for the team, I believe you have oversold all five of your starters, by an aggregate of 20 or so minutes. Give back the 11 to 13 and distribute the rest among the bench, and I think you'll be a lot closer to what we're really going to see.

Finally, this is page 11 (now 12) of this thread, and the first ten pages were filled with many predictions and discussion about how the minutes will play out this coming season. I'm a little bit mystified why you decided to phrase your post as if it just occurred to you and nobody else could possibly have thought of it yet.

P.S.: Having read my post, I apologize if it's overly snarky. I'm not ready to take it back yet, though.

[Bob Green]

P.S.: Having read my post, I apologize if it's overly snarky. I'm not ready to take it back yet, though.

I don't find your post overly snarky at all. I find it to be a straight forward response pointing out to the original poster that their post wasn't realistic. The problem with off season "Starting line-up" or "Playing time" threads is they typically become unrealistic in a hurry. I know this from first hand experience as I was the guy who predicted Zoubek would start and average a double-double as a junior. It didn't happen.

However, the 140 minutes I predicted the starters would play back in Post #163 is completely legit and spot on. It will happen. :D

[CrazieDUMB]

Well, you have doled out 209 minutes, plus two sets of "garbage minutes". Assuming you expect Carrick and Tyler T to average, say, 1 or 2 minutes a game in garbage time, that puts you at 211 to 213 minutes, which is 11 to 13 minutes higher than is possible. So I might be out on a limb on this, but I don't think your guess is "one of the best I've seen on this thread" nor is it "pretty legit."

Kedsy, I'm amazed that you missed the subtlety of the post. Clearly the poster was saying that roughly 60% of our games will go to overtime. Bold and contrarian. Legit indeed.

[DukieBoy]

No where else to post this, but I think this shows those doubters that Irving can get to the rim (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vxMWvBqBfD8)

[Big Pappa]

Well, you have doled out 209 minutes, plus two sets of "garbage minutes". Assuming you expect Carrick and Tyler T to average, say, 1 or 2 minutes a game in garbage time, that puts you at 211 to 213 minutes, which is 11 to 13 minutes higher than is possible. So I might be out on a limb on this, but I don't think your guess is "one of the best I've seen on this thread" nor is it "pretty legit."

Beyond the impossibilities of having more than 200 minutes for the team, I believe you have oversold all five of your starters, by an aggregate of 20 or so minutes. Give back the 11 to 13 and distribute the rest among the bench, and I think you'll be a lot closer to what we're really going to see.

Finally, this is page 11 (now 12) of this thread, and the first ten pages were filled with many predictions and discussion about how the minutes will play out this coming season. I'm a little bit mystified why you decided to phrase your post as if it just occurred to you and nobody else could possibly have thought of it yet.

P.S.: Having read my post, I apologize if it's overly snarky. I'm not ready to take it back yet, though.

If snarky means accurate then yes your post is quite starky. I just can't see Nolan and Kyle player that many minutes with all of the talent surrounding them.

As I said before, the last time that we had multiple guys play 35+ minutes per game (other than last year) was the 1999-2000 season with Battier and Carrawell. To find it happening again you have to go all the way back to the 1983-1984 season with Amaker and Dawkins. Basically since 1985, it has happened two times in the last 25 years. I just don't see it happening again next year, realisticly I see them playing between 30-32 mpg.

[DukeBlood]

I was pretty sure Kyle was gone, But im gladdy to admit that I was wrong. Welecome Back Kyle(I know I'm late, but work with me)

Starters

Kyrie Irving
Nolan Smith
Kyle Singler
Mason Plumlee
Miles Plumlee

Major Minutes

Andre Dawkins
Seth Curry
Ryan Kelly

Unknown

Josh Hairston
Tyler Thornton
Carrick Felix

I believe either Josh or Carrick will get major minutes as a sub, not sure which one but should be interesting. Since its been widely stated that the pace of Duke will change to more up tempo Im hoping to see a little longer bench but not really worried either way.

Also feel quite a few people are selling Andre Dawkins short, I know the Guard/Wing position is crowded with lots of talent, but he is one of Duke's best shooters, if not the best(?). While struggled at times as a FR, Looked great other times. Look for the a big jump as he just understands better as a SO.

Duke goes into the off-season as Pre-season Top-5(#1 in most) and while there is no doubt there is A LOT of talent on this team, there is just a lot of questions that need to be answered like any other team.

[Bob Green]

Also feel quite a few people are selling Andre Dawkins short, I know the Guard/Wing position is crowded with lots of talent, but he is one of Duke's best shooters, if not the best(?). While struggled at times as a FR, Looked great other times. Look for the a big jump as he just understands better as a SO.

Dawkins appeared to make substantial improvement on the defensive end of the court late in the season, which will provide him momentum to earn playing time as a sophomore. In regard to his shooting, the two 3-point shots he knocked down in the 1st half against Baylor were huge. Dawkins needs to work hard over the summer on his ball handling skills which seem to lag behind his other skills. I definitely agree that Dawkins will make a big freshman to sophomore jump and I am not selling him short.

[amat1129]

since dawkins is the biggest guard his ability to guard bigger wing players will give him more minutes, his shooting will be there i hope his D is too

[DukieInBrasil]

Well, you have doled out 209 minutes, plus two sets of "garbage minutes". Assuming you expect Carrick and Tyler T to average, say, 1 or 2 minutes a game in garbage time, that puts you at 211 to 213 minutes, which is 11 to 13 minutes higher than is possible. So I might be out on a limb on this, but I don't think your guess is "one of the best I've seen on this thread" nor is it "pretty legit."

Beyond the impossibilities of having more than 200 minutes for the team, I believe you have oversold all five of your starters, by an aggregate of 20 or so minutes. Give back the 11 to 13 and distribute the rest among the bench, and I think you'll be a lot closer to what we're really going to see.

Finally, this is page 11 (now 12) of this thread, and the first ten pages were filled with many predictions and discussion about how the minutes will play out this coming season. I'm a little bit mystified why you decided to phrase your post as if it just occurred to you and nobody else could possibly have thought of it yet.

P.S.: Having read my post, I apologize if it's overly snarky. I'm not ready to take it back yet, though.

The only saving grace here for the original poster is that season average minutes are only for games played. As happened this year, any number of players may miss a couple of games, eg., Nolan missed 2 due to suspension, Mason missed 8 due to injury and both Kelly and Dawkins got a few DNPs, as well as Czyz transferring away. All of those things would affect the mpg averages across the season. Hopefully nobody misses games due to injury, but it is a possibility, as recent history indicates.

I agree with your point about having oversold the starters. Nolan and Kyle are great, we know that, but the 3 other probable starters have lots of ??? surrounding the mpg scenarios we might imagine. However, we have so much potential firepower, a couple of rock-steady studs and a decent returning supporting cast, some of whom may step up to star status, that I think we won't have very many close contests where 30+ minutes will be needed from Kyle and Nolan. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see both Kyle and Nolan average less than 30, due to the devastating destruction our boys will be reining down on the opposition.

[RoyalBlue08]

The only saving grace here for the original poster is that season average minutes are only for games played. As happened this year, any number of players may miss a couple of games, eg., Nolan missed 2 due to suspension, Mason missed 8 due to injury and both Kelly and Dawkins got a few DNPs, as well as Czyz transferring away. All of those things would affect the mpg averages across the season. Hopefully nobody misses games due to injury, but it is a possibility, as recent history indicates.

I agree with your point about having oversold the starters. Nolan and Kyle are great, we know that, but the 3 other probable starters have lots of ??? surrounding the mpg scenarios we might imagine. However, we have so much potential firepower, a couple of rock-steady studs and a decent returning supporting cast, some of whom may step up to star status, that I think we won't have very many close contests where 30+ minutes will be needed from Kyle and Nolan. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see both Kyle and Nolan average less than 30, due to the devastating destruction our boys will be reining down on the opposition.

I am going to spend all summer reading posts like this until i work myself up into such an excited state that the first loss by the team in '10/'11 is going to be like someone shooting my dog. I almost wish there was a way to dial down (my) expectations.

[Devilsfan]

I see a seven man rotation in 2011, unless Hairston adapts fast and/or Kelly steps up his game like Nolan and Zoubs did last year. I'm really hoping for this to happen again but it's up to them and a lot of very hard work this summer.

[DukieInBrasil]

I see a seven man rotation in 2011, unless Hairston adapts fast and/or Kelly steps up his game like Nolan and Zoubs did last year. I'm really hoping for this to happen again but it's up to them and a lot of very hard work this summer.

Who are your 7 then?

I don't think that K will shorten the bench that much. I fully expect 9 guys to play in every game (barring injury) and get regular minutes. I'm only unsure of the role that Thornton will be able to carve out this year as well as Hairston. I still expect them to play at least as much as Kelly and Dawkins (post-OOC Dre) played their Fr. years. Even though Carrick is just as unknown to us as the other Fr., he is the only trad. "3" type player on the roster and I'll think he'll have a niche available to play into.

[MisterRoddy]

I see a seven man rotation in 2011, unless Hairston adapts fast and/or Kelly steps up his game like Nolan and Zoubs did last year. I'm really hoping for this to happen again but it's up to them and a lot of very hard work this summer.

IMO, a 7-man rotation in unrealistic for a supposed championship team. I'm thinking that Hairston gets good minutes. Some people don't give enough credit to freshman seeing what happened to Dawkins and Kelly last year but the thing is, Dawkins came out a year early and suffered a devastating tragedy right when he was doing his best and Kelly's body simply wasnt college ready for the position he plays. Mason Plumlee was a solid role player and that's how I see Hairston being for Duke in 2010-2011. Possibly 10-15 or more mins game...5-10 points, 4 boards a game
Hopefully Kelly dramatically improves like Miles did his soph year and we can hav a solid 9-man rotation.

[COYS]

Who are your 7 then?

Even though Carrick is just as unknown to us as the other Fr., he is the only trad. "3" type player on the roster and I'll think he'll have a niche available to play into.

Who is Kyle Singler?

All joking aside, I think Singler will take most if not all of Carrick's minutes at the three. He definitely gives us an interesting option to play small and fast without giving up much strength in a lineup featuring Kyle at the five with Carrick and three guards in, but I just don't see that as a lineup that is likely to be used much, if at all. If Singler had gone, I think Carrick had a serious shot at getting major minutes, particularly if Mason developed into a scoring threat allowing us to use some seriously athletic lineups with Mason, Miles, Carrick, Smith, and Irving without giving up too much on the offensive end. With Singler back, I just don't see Carrick playing too much during his first season at Duke. He'll simply be playing behind one of the premier small forwards in the country.

[Kedsy]

I see a seven man rotation in 2011, unless Hairston adapts fast and/or Kelly steps up his game like Nolan and Zoubs did last year. I'm really hoping for this to happen again but it's up to them and a lot of very hard work this summer.

A seven man rotation (without Hairston or Kelly) basically means that Miles, Mason, and Kyle will use all 80 of the 4/5 minutes, and thus all three would almost never play together. If that's the case, Kyle would be playing almost no minutes at the 3, despite K saying he would be playing a lot on the perimeter. Also (since I assume your seven are Kyrie, Nolan, Seth, Andre, Kyle, Mason, and Miles) it would mean the vast majority of the time our third largest defender on the floor would be either 6'1"/6'2" (Kyrie, Nolan, Seth) or a skinny 6'4" (Andre). Or, alternatively if Carrick is one of the seven, it means you don't think Andre will be in the rotation at all.

Anything's possible, I suppose, but all these things seem highly unlikely to me.

[Welcome2DaSlopes]

Yea I agree with Kedsy, there is no way a 7 man rotation is possible. The lowest rotation I see possible is a 9 man. With Nolan, kyle, Kyrie,Seth, Mason, Miles, Dre, Ryan, Josh/Carrick, which ever one steps up.

[-bdbd]

Well, you have doled out 209 minutes, plus two sets of "garbage minutes". Assuming you expect Carrick and Tyler T to average, say, 1 or 2 minutes a game in garbage time, that puts you at 211 to 213 minutes, which is 11 to 13 minutes higher than is possible. So I might be out on a limb on this, but I don't think your guess is "one of the best I've seen on this thread" nor is it "pretty legit."

Beyond the impossibilities of having more than 200 minutes for the team, I believe you have oversold all five of your starters, by an aggregate of 20 or so minutes. Give back the 11 to 13 and distribute the rest among the bench, and I think you'll be a lot closer to what we're really going to see.

Finally, this is page 11 (now 12) of this thread, and the first ten pages were filled with many predictions and discussion about how the minutes will play out this coming season. I'm a little bit mystified why you decided to phrase your post as if it just occurred to you and nobody else could possibly have thought of it yet.

P.S.: Having read my post, I apologize if it's overly snarky. I'm not ready to take it back yet, though.

Hey,

Haven't you guys ever heard of overtime???! Every OT game adds at least 25 minutes to what is "possible." So, we just need about half of our games to go to OT and , BAM!, Bob and Bo are spot-on here...

;)


And you thought we weren't payin' attention.
:rolleyes:

[DukieInBrasil]

Who is Kyle Singler?

All joking aside, I think Singler will take most if not all of Carrick's minutes at the three. He definitely gives us an interesting option to play small and fast without giving up much strength in a lineup featuring Kyle at the five with Carrick and three guards in, but I just don't see that as a lineup that is likely to be used much, if at all. If Singler had gone, I think Carrick had a serious shot at getting major minutes, particularly if Mason developed into a scoring threat allowing us to use some seriously athletic lineups with Mason, Miles, Carrick, Smith, and Irving without giving up too much on the offensive end. With Singler back, I just don't see Carrick playing too much during his first season at Duke. He'll simply be playing behind one of the premier small forwards in the country.

Kyle's a bit big for a traditional college 3, which was my "trad. '3'" idea referenced. He is one of the premier SF in the country and definitely will play a whole lot of 3 for us next year, but I think that Carrick will get a few minutes every game at the 3, that's all. I expect him to play in every game where he's available, and this perception is based entirely on the internet rumors of his defensive prowess. We all know that K will play guys who want to play D, even with limited offensive production; we just graduated one of the best at fulfilling that role that K covets. That role is available again and I think CF will be get some time getting his feet wet in that role. He's 2 years outta HS so he's got a level of emotional and physical maturity that the other newcomers don't have, which I think will be an advantage for him towards getting PT. He'll probably be our 9th regular player and IMHO get about 9mpg for the season with about 5+mpg during the ACC.

[DukieInBrasil]

I am going to spend all summer reading posts like this until i work myself up into such an excited state that the first loss by the team in '10/'11 is going to be like someone shooting my dog. I almost wish there was a way to dial down (my) expectations.

yeah, that was maybe a bit hyperbolic. I guess I am also very excited for next year. But isn't the first loss of the year always a downer? It is for me. I don't have any expectations of when our 1st loss might be next year, but I always want us (the good guys) to win whatever game we're playing. My Blue tinted glasses are pretty dark.

[Welcome2DaSlopes]

Miles beard continues to grow, no way he doesn't start next year.

[whereinthehellami]

IMO, a 7-man rotation in unrealistic for a supposed championship team. I'm thinking that Hairston gets good minutes. Some people don't give enough credit to freshman seeing what happened to Dawkins and Kelly last year but the thing is, Dawkins came out a year early and suffered a devastating tragedy right when he was doing his best and Kelly's body simply wasnt college ready for the position he plays. Mason Plumlee was a solid role player and that's how I see Hairston being for Duke in 2010-2011. Possibly 10-15 or more mins game...5-10 points, 4 boards a game
Hopefully Kelly dramatically improves like Miles did his soph year and we can hav a solid 9-man rotation.

I see Hairston's O being more advanced at this point than his D. And i don't think that O will be needed as much from the bench next year as D will be. If Felix picks up the defense, I think he will be the suprise player. At 6-6 he has decent size and the athletiscm to be a lockdown and versatile defender.

[Big Pappa]

I see Hairston's O being more advanced at this point than his D. And i don't think that O will be needed as much from the bench next year as D will be. If Felix picks up the defense, I think he will be the suprise player. At 6-6 he has decent size and the athletiscm to be a lockdown and versatile defender.

The big difference between Josh and Carrick is experience. Carrick has been playing college basketball while Josh has not been. Time after time a similarly skilled Juco player is able to come in and contribute faster than a freshman.

[MisterRoddy]

The big difference between Josh and Carrick is experience. Carrick has been playing college basketball while Josh has not been. Time after time a similarly skilled Juco player is able to come in and contribute faster than a freshman.

Are you implying that Carrick has the talent of a top 40 recruit...plus the experience? :)

[Big Pappa]

Are you implying that Carrick has the talent of a top 40 recruit...plus the experience? :)

Fair point and I didn't mean to imply that but I don't think the talent gap is that wide. I do see Carrick getting more minutes next year for two main reasons: as I previously stated he has been playing college basketball and he is more versatile in regard to his ability to guard any position that Josh is.

[JohnGalt]

Fair point and I didn't mean to imply that but I don't think the talent gap is that wide. I do see Carrick getting more minutes next year for two main reasons: as I previously stated he has been playing college basketball and he is more versatile in regard to his ability to guard any position that Josh is.

BP -

I appreciate your posts and opinions, but what are you basing this on? Have you seen Carrick play? Or watched a fair amount of game tape? I get the feeling a lot of people have seen the highlight videos and based their opinions on that along with hearsay that he's an above average defender. Someone once said on here in response to the uberhype that seems to stem from youtube highlight reels that he "could make Martynas Pocius look like a more athletic Jerry West" via cutting and copying tape. It's a curiosity question, BP, not meant to be disrespectful so I apologize if it comes off that way. Anyhow, any insight would be appreciated.

[Big Pappa]

BP -

I appreciate your posts and opinions, but what are you basing this on? Have you seen Carrick play? Or watched a fair amount of game tape? I get the feeling a lot of people have seen the highlight videos and based their opinions on that along with hearsay that he's an above average defender. Someone once said on here in response to the uberhype that seems to stem from youtube highlight reels that he "could make Martynas Pocius look like a more athletic Jerry West" via cutting and copying tape. It's a curiosity question, BP, not meant to be disrespectful so I apologize if it comes off that way. Anyhow, any insight would be appreciated.

No disrespect take John. I thought that the fact that Carrick is an above average defender was fairly universally accepted, at least on the board. I have seen cut videos like everyone else that usually show his dunks but I have also seen straight video (although admittedly not a very long one) of him playing at CSI.

I also am basing my estimation of his defensive skill on the fact that Coach K and many other journalists I've read talk about three things in regard to Carrick: his athleticism (some say NBA potential), his grades, and his commitment to defense. I hope this answers your question.

[Big Pappa]

Fair point and I didn't mean to imply that but I don't think the talent gap is that wide. I do see Carrick getting more minutes next year for two main reasons: as I previously stated he has been playing college basketball and he is more versatile in regard to his ability to guard any position that Josh is.

Also, if you look at my previous post, I wasn't saying that Carrick is better on defense than Josh (although I believe him to be, but that is an opinion). Carrick is more versatile on defense because his speed allows him to cover the 2 or 3 positions effectively, while his size allows him to cover the 4 if need be.

[greybeard]

If K does not use his bigs in the same fashion as last year, and I do not believe he can, then Duke must have these guys scoring the ball at the rim.

Now, K might be counting on KI to create lots of easy baskets off drop offs, as does most everyone here, but I think that there will need to be other type scoring inside by the 4-5s to allow Duke to reach its potential.

Without Brian setting screens like a mad man, the looks Kyle and Smith are likely to be getting as a whole will not be nearly so good as last year. How their games are affected, who knows?

Without Brian's extraordinary screen game, it seems to be that a principal way to create space on the exterior is via pass penetration to Bigs who can hurt people unless their defenders get help. I suppose that same outside collapse can be created off KI's forays to the rim and potential drop offs or passes to inside players, but frankly do not know.

So, notwithstanding the wealth of guys with bona fides as 3-ball marksmen, the issue remains is how the "looks" will be created.

I tried and failed to do a little research on Carrick to see if he has a good back-to-the basket game. What I read emphasized his ability to roam outside and play outside-in but that does not mean that he does not have the body and skills to post people up. That could be huge for Duke if he does.

I remain less than convinced that the Plumlees will be able to score reliability off post-up catches, which are not my favorite but seems to have been Duke's style going back to the Boozer/Brand days.

Anyway, instead of gettin all fuzzy about the wealth of dead eye shooters, me, I'm curious about how Duke will deploy to create looks for them, unless the entire answer is as obvious as KI. Could that be it? Interesting.

[roywhite]

Without Brian setting screens like a mad man, the looks Kyle and Smith are likely to be getting as a whole will not be nearly so good as last year. How their games are affected, who knows?



Your questions are legitimate, and interesting.

One quick thought to the above comment...Kyle and Nolan should get more looks before opposing defenses have completely set up. Not just outright fast break situations resulting in dunks and layups, but some space in the mid-area when Duke pushes the ball up (after misses and makes).

[jimsumner]

No question that Zoubek went way past proficient as a screen setter last season.

Then again, guys like Collins, Langdon, Battier and Redick were able to get pretty good looks without Zoubs setting screens. So, I suspect Duke will figure out something.