Ryan Kelly

[Osiagledknarf]

What do you see his role going forward? For what I saw this season, I was not impressed at all by him at his defense and toughness. I know he has great offensive ability and good size, but what do you guys feel about him going forward?

[nic7095]

Yeah he definately needs to get stronger and more physically because he is going to play primarily at the 4. If he gets stronger and gains some size and rebounding ability he will be a nice inside/outside threat next season.

[DukieTiger]

What do you see his role going forward? For what I saw this season, I was not impressed at all by him at his defense and toughness. I know he has great offensive ability and good size, but what do you guys feel about him going forward?

I actually thought he had good defensive instincts. He'll always be limited defensively in your mind if you are looking for him to guard wings. But he was our second best shot-blocker last year and once he gets stronger, will be a good post defender. Toughness will come as he adds size and strength as well.

Offensively, he's a great passer and will be good as a step out 4 next year, with the ability to play off of all the penetrators that we will have, and hit the 3.

He'll be a solid role player next year.

[Duvall]

Well, Duke looks to have only four big men next year, two of whom are remarkably foul prone. So it looks like he'll have a pretty big role starting next year.

[Leck]

he just needs to get stronger and work on his footspeed. the most i've seen him play this year was at open practice at the FF in indy, and let me tell ya, he was the best player on the scout team.

that's right, i said it, he looked better at open practice than seth curry.

he hit a couple of 3's in a scrimmage and competed in big-men-only drills (while showing some touch/finesse in the paint). the only thing really holding his development back is his strength and lateral quickness. once that comes, his development will go through the roof. (imagine how good his skill set would be on a guy 6-10, 240...)

he's never gonna be as athletic as the plumlees, but he has a tremendous upside given his shooting ability (he did win the 3 pt contest at the MAA game after all) and his high bball IQ. watch his development compared with that of the wears down the road.

[Kedsy]

What do you see his role going forward? For what I saw this season, I was not impressed at all by him at his defense and toughness. I know he has great offensive ability and good size, but what do you guys feel about him going forward?

Blocks per 40 minutes
---------------------
Mason P: 2.50
Ryan K: 2.47
Brian Z: 1.66
Miles P: 1.59
Kyle S: 0.89

Steals per 40 minutes
---------------------
Jon S: 1.77
Mason P: 1.50
Brian Z: 1.45
Ryan K: 1.40
Nolan S: 1.33
Miles P: 1.22
Kyle S: 1.14
Lance T: 0.95
Andre D: 0.92

Obviously blocks and steals don't tell even the majority of the defense story, but I'd say for a freshman who people don't think is strong enough or quick enough, Ryan did a lot better than one might expect in those two categories.

Rebounds per 40 minutes
------------------------
Brian Z: 16.57
Miles P: 12.05
Mason P: 8.67
Kyle S: 7.80
Lance T: 7.66
Ryan K: 6.70
Jon S: 3.92

Ryan's rebounding is far from outstanding, but isn't significantly worse than Kyle's or Lance's. With more strength, my guess is he can get up to 8 or 10 (per 40), which would be more than adequate.

Unscientifically, just from watching, I think he stuck with his man at least as much as Miles and probably more than Mason.

I don't know what you mean by "toughness," and I don't think we saw enough of him to form an opinion (either way) based on his play in spot minutes, but my take on Ryan is after a summer in the weight room he's going to be a contributing part of the regular rotation and by his junior year he'll be very, very good.

[OldSchool]

Ryan is gonna get a ton of minutes next year.

We have basically three people in the rotation for the two post spots, Miles, Mason and Ryan.

Josh has the opportunity as a freshman to earn significant minutes based on his development, but we won't need to place a big burden on him unless there is an injury or perhaps in a particular game because of foul trouble.

I expect Ryan to show up in a big way next year.

[Zeb]

I saw flashes of strong basketball smarts from Kelly in his limited minutes this season. He's a surprisingly effective shot blocker - especially from off the ball, and he makes good creative entry passes into the post. He needs to work on his rebounding and his defensive positioning.

I think he will muscle up this summer and see regular minutes this fall as a big, particularly if Singler leaves. While he won't be as effective as Thomas was on defense, but he presents a huge upgrade on offense.

I think he could surprise people in the coming years by the amount he contributes. K showed a willingness to platoon bigs this year, and if Kelly's outside shot is falling he provides an valuable scoring option off the bench.

[COYS]

Blocks per 40 minutes
---------------------
Mason P: 2.50
Ryan K: 2.47
Brian Z: 1.66
Miles P: 1.59
Kyle S: 0.89

Steals per 40 minutes
---------------------
Jon S: 1.77
Mason P: 1.50
Brian Z: 1.45
Ryan K: 1.40
Nolan S: 1.33
Miles P: 1.22
Kyle S: 1.14
Lance T: 0.95
Andre D: 0.92


Obviously blocks and steals don't tell even the majority of the defense story, but I'd say for a freshman who people don't think is strong enough or quick enough, Ryan did a lot better than one might expect in those two categories.

Rebounds per 40 minutes
------------------------
Brian Z: 16.57
Miles P: 12.05
Mason P: 8.67
Kyle S: 7.80
Lance T: 7.66
Ryan K: 6.70
Jon S: 3.92

Ryan's rebounding is far from outstanding, but isn't significantly worse than Kyle's or Lance's. With more strength, my guess is he can get up to 8 or 10 (per 40), which would be more than adequate.

Unscientifically, just from watching, I think he stuck with his man at least as much as Miles and probably more than Mason.

I don't know what you mean by "toughness," and I don't think we saw enough of him to form an opinion (either way) based on his play in spot minutes, but my take on Ryan is after a summer in the weight room he's going to be a contributing part of the regular rotation and by his junior year he'll be very, very good.

Blocks, steals, and rebounds are often used as "athletic" markers by NBA stat-types like John Hollinger at ESPN. With the caveat that the stats we have on him are from limited playing time, some of it being with our second string thus causing his performance to be hurt by not sharing the court with our starters, the fact that he got a lot of steals and blocked a lot of shots is a good sign. It means that even if he isn't the fastest in the world, he moves well enough to anticipate passes and has good timing on his blocks (more important than sheer leaping ability, just ask Tim Duncan). He also must position himself well for that. The rebounding numbers will hopefully go up as he adds strength and is able to hold his position better. Basically, it supports the general idea of Ryan as a talented player with great instincts who needs to get stronger. He will, most likely, never be the boardsman that Zoubek was or that Miles can become, but he can definitely equal or better Kyle's per 40 minute numbers. Add to that smart play on the defensive end and some nice offensive skills and you've got a player who will contribute next year and may even be a star down the road, if we're lucky.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Two words.
Miles Plumlee
Look where he was and what he did his freshman year (squat, and that's ok) and look at what Ryan did (squat, and that's ok)
I guarantee you, that like Miles, Ryan is going to big time impress people once he has this summer to work out. Ryan is even more of a shooter than Mason (MP2 has taken the outside shots, MP1 has been post only), once he gets his game legs in, he'll be a threat from outside and inside. I'm really looking forward to his development.

[greybeard]

I do not think that Ryan's success next year will depend so much on muscles as on a jump shot. I think Ryan has to shoot a million of em, and find a few places and distances that are money for him and that fit within what K has planned for the offense.

Ryan will be as good as his ability to hurt people with a jump shot before putting it on the floor. Might not be a catch and shoot kind of thing. I see him catching it in the middle of the floor within the circle on top of the foul line and facing up. I think he has within right now a number of positions he can hold the ball in to start, including up high with two hands. His ability to shoot and make it when he decides can make him an extremely dangerous person. He has the potential to be the most overall effective big man creator from such a position since the smaller and much, much more athletic Grant Hill. He will need to be able to kill Hill as a jump shooter for that to happen. If he develops that ability, and can face up small, big, and in between in his stance and ball position and shoot it if he wants, put it on the floor if he wants, and create off the pass whenever in the process he wants, all of which I think is entirely possible, he could be a real force.

Yeap, I think that he can be that good. I think that his minutes will be limited, in the mid twenty range, unless the strength that others are hoping for materializes.

How will he defend if forced to guard much stronger and more athletic 4s or 5s, hey, who do you think I am, a fortune teller? Let K figure it out.

Ryan needs to become a killer jump shooter inside three range, then his ability to put the ball on the floor and more importantly see the possible and lead people to advantae inside with his passes will follow.

In short, if he develops a killer shot, I can see him serving as a fulcrum for the offense when he is in. Stronger would be nice, but I think the shot will be nicer, much! What's more I think that shot is well within his reach.

[DevilHorns]

Follow Lance's example.

Lance was much more effective this year at the 4 due to his dedication to bulking up. Though I don't think its expected of Kelly to be the defensive force Lance was, I do think his offensive potential is very very strong. I am glad this young man is in a position to really make a big step for next year's team.

Hopefully he can really pump iron and gain some muscle mass this summer.

[Mcluhan]

If Singler comes back, I'm not sure that Kelly or Hairston will see much more playing time than Kelly saw this past year. If Singler doesn't come back, I expect them to be in close competition for minutes, and I might give Hairston the slight edge as a more traditional post player. It's likely that the Plumlees will still struggle some with fouls, and if so we'll need big rebounders under the hoop as Nolan, Kyrie, Andre, and Seth let it fly from outside.

[billyj]

I don't know, this kid need a major change or step up to be able to play college ball.

And even if he bulks up, he will lose in vertical and stamina. It will be hard. He need to find a way to contribute without bulk up too much.

[dukeimac]

First of all, please remember that Kelly had an illness last summer that cut into his development. Summer development is very critical, see Nolan.

He has potential and with some work I see him as a Dunleavy. He has the height and showed that he has the talent. He needs to catch up with the game at this level. The coaches probably already have him working on his summer routine to help him catch up.

Duke pursued Kelly pretty hard after they saw something in him during the tournament he played in with Mason last summer. This is not an Olek or Boykin thing, thus I trust they have a plan to develop this guy. Plus, remember Olek left because he saw that playing time would be a question; that had to include Kelly taking up some time.

I'm pretty sure this coaching staff knows what they need to do to get their players in tune.

[roywhite]

I do not think that Ryan's success next year will depend so much on muscles as on a jump shot. I think Ryan has to shoot a million of em, and find a few places and distances that are money for him and that fit within what K has planned for the offense.



Ryan has been known for a good shooting touch and won the McD's 3-pt competition in 2009, so he definitely has range.

I wonder if he'll be encouraged to change his form or just get a ton of practice. Ryan seems to lean forward on his shot and the shots have a fairly flat trajectory. Certainly not textbook form...will it work for him or change his mechanics?

[whereinthehellami]

I was impressed with Ryan's passing and overall basketball IQ in the limited time we saw him this year. I also like his attitude and love the fact that he is a gym rat. Give a gym rat with a good basketball IQ an off-seeason to refine their game and I think we will see a pretty good jump in production from Ryan next year.

[airowe]

Ryan is much more of a traditional post player than Josh. I wonder how the switch to an uptempo pace will affect his PT. I figure he will flourish in the halfcourt, but its hard to project how his skills will translate to the transition game.

I figure Ryan will get his fair shake of minutes and be very valuable in the halfcourt on defense and as an inside-out threat (he will keep teams honest because of his shot, but his entry passes are just as dangerous) on offense. His minutes will clearly be impacted by Kyle's decision...

[CDu]

I think with a little size and a full year of getting comfortable with the strength and speed of the college game, Kelly will be ready to make an impact.

The guy was known as a terrific offensive player coming in, with great shooting touch and terrific passing skills. We saw the passing skills at times this year, but the shooting touch wasn't there. That might have just been a comfort/confidence thing.

But I think that we'll see much more of Kelly at the 4 next year (regardless of Singler's return), and I think he'll be a key part of the team's half-court game as the third post player.

[CrazieDUMB]

I could see Ryan getting a lot of minutes against smaller teams, who don't have a 4 that can muscle him out down under on defense. That way, he can clear out, maybe get some kickout threes and jump shots off a penetrating guard. I don't think he was ever billed as a back to the basket guy, so I'm in the camp that thinks we shouldn't make him be.

[ajgoodfella7]

I still think Kelly's best position would be at the 3, but I agree that we will probably need him to play most of his minutes at the 4.

[NSDukeFan]

I think with a little size and a full year of getting comfortable with the strength and speed of the college game, Kelly will be ready to make an impact.

The guy was known as a terrific offensive player coming in, with great shooting touch and terrific passing skills. We saw the passing skills at times this year, but the shooting touch wasn't there. That might have just been a comfort/confidence thing.

But I think that we'll see much more of Kelly at the 4 next year (regardless of Singler's return), and I think he'll be a key part of the team's half-court game as the third post player.

I also think Kelly will be a big part of the team next year, as first big off the bench, whether Kyle is back or not. I am really looking forward to seeing what he is able to contribute with a summer to improve and get stronger. I have been impressed with some of his skills in the minutes I have seen him play. I like his passing ability, his potential as a deep shooter and, perhaps he could play a role similar to Kyle's in that he could post up some players, and catch around the foul line or 18 feet and take a jump shot, or one dribble moves. I also think that he will be fine defensively with a bit of strength, as he has some shot blocking ability and should be able to know his help-side responsibilities better with a year in the system. The other positive for Ryan's development next year, is there are not a whole lot of scary centers or power forwards returning, with the departure of Davis, Thompson, Favors, Lawal, possibly Alabi. I look forward to a big year for Ryan next year and even more in subsequent years.

[Duvall]

I still think Kelly's best position would be at the 3

Why?

[ajgoodfella7]

Why?

Because his overall skill is very similar to Singlers'... just because he is 6'10 doesn't mean he is automatically great at banging down low on the glass and defending other power forwards. He is more of a perimeter oriented forward and I think he has more skill then to be playing a Lance Thomas type role.

[sagegrouse]

I don't know, this kid need a major change or step up to be able to play college ball.

And even if he bulks up, he will lose in vertical and stamina. It will be hard. He need to find a way to contribute without bulk up too much.

I think a lot of folks would say that, if Ryan adds muscle, he would increase his vertical and probably his stamina, in the sense that he would have more strength for inside play.

sagegrouse

[roywhite]

Because his overall skill is very similar to Singlers'... just because he is 6'10 doesn't mean he is automatically great at banging down low on the glass and defending other power forwards. He is more of a perimeter oriented forward and I think he has more skill then to be playing a Lance Thomas type role.

Don't see Ryan as a "3". Kykle can go both inside and outside but also can defend players on the wing, which is not a good matchup for Ryan.

Ryan is a classic inside/outside Duke big man who can score and rebound inside, but also shoot from outside and pass the ball well. He just needs some muscle and experience.

[ajgoodfella7]

Don't see Ryan as a "3". Kykle can go both inside and outside but also can defend players on the wing, which is not a good matchup for Ryan.

Ryan is a classic inside/outside Duke big man who can score and rebound inside, but also shoot from outside and pass the ball well. He just needs some muscle and experience.

True, but you can play defense basically however you want. Just because he is perimeter oriented on offense does not mean that he has to guard a perimeter player on defense. It's just my opinion, but from everything I've seen, be it high school tape or his limited game action this past season, he is very capable shooter, ball-handler, and passer. And most of his minutes his freshman year, he was used on the perimeter on offense because I think that is his biggest advantage over most 6'10" players.

[airowe]

True, but you can play defense basically however you want. Just because he is perimeter oriented on offense does not mean that he has to guard a perimeter player on defense. It's just my opinion, but from everything I've seen, be it high school tape or his limited game action this past season, he is very capable shooter, ball-handler, and passer. And most of his minutes his freshman year, he was used on the perimeter on offense because I think that is his biggest advantage over most 6'10" players.

Ryan has a lot of strengths, but I think even he would tell you that ball-handling is not one of them.

If he was going to play the three in Duke's system, don't you think he would have played it this year when we only had one on the roster?

[CDu]

True, but you can play defense basically however you want. Just because he is perimeter oriented on offense does not mean that he has to guard a perimeter player on defense. It's just my opinion, but from everything I've seen, be it high school tape or his limited game action this past season, he is very capable shooter, ball-handler, and passer. And most of his minutes his freshman year, he was used on the perimeter on offense because I think that is his biggest advantage over most 6'10" players.

I think part of the difference of opinion lies in Kelly's ballhandling. I don't think Kelly has nearly the ballhandling skills that Singler has. I think he has good ballhandling for a big, but not for a wing. What made Singler able to move to the 3 was that he was also a really good ballhandler. Kelly, on the other hand, seems like the definition of a face-up 4 - good shooter and good passer, tall, adequate with the ball, capable of defending in the post and getting rebounds.

But further, your point that Kelly doesn't have to guard wings if he plays the 3 doesn't work in my opinion. I would say that most people define your position based on whom you guard. If you guard a 4, you're a 4. If you guard a 3, you're a 3. We frequently have perimeter-oriented 4s/5s at Duke. That doesn't mean they aren't 4s/5s.

[Kedsy]

True, but you can play defense basically however you want. Just because he is perimeter oriented on offense does not mean that he has to guard a perimeter player on defense.

You are correct, where you play on offense doesn't affect who you guard on defense. Except for one thing -- you have to guard someone.

If Ryan is playing the "3," presumably that means you have two other big men in the game (MP1, MP2?) and just two guards. Neither of the MPs are going to be guarding the other team's small forward, so who else is Ryan going to guard? We don't have a Lance on next year's team who can defend both big, strong players and also small, quick players (although maybe Carrick Felix can grow into that role).

Ryan will be playing the "4."

[CDu]

You are correct, where you play on offense doesn't affect who you guard on defense. Except for one thing -- you have to guard someone.

If Ryan is playing the "3," presumably that means you have two other big men in the game (MP1, MP2?) and just two guards. Neither of the MPs are going to be guarding the other team's small forward, so who else is Ryan going to guard? We don't have a Lance on next year's team who can defend both big, strong players and also small, quick players (although maybe Carrick Felix can grow into that role).

Ryan will be playing the "4."

Well said.

[ElSid]

I think Ryan Kelly can develop into a rich man's Nick Horvath. Similar size and mobility. Kelly is more skilled and a better shooter. His defense is actually pretty good. His ability to play D very well will be the main determinant of his playing time.

But, I'm not as concerned about next year. I think he'll be a 15 minute contributor at the four position that poses some match up problems on both ends of the court. Mason and Miles should get the meat of the minutes depending on conditioning and foul trouble.

Ryan is clearly a four year player and I think he and all of us should be encouraged to see what can happen in four years at Duke...you can become Zoubek.

Also, lifting the right muscles increases your vertical, obviously. With Zoubek, he spent most of the summer lifting his LOWER body, to help him with balance and rebound positioning and quickness. Whoever said bulking up will reduce these traits is simply wrong. Sure, if all you do is build your beach muscles, you won't be a very good athlete in any sport. Ryan will work on establishing his base and core with squats and dead lifts and what not, and will do plyometrics and other stuff to increase lateral quickness and foot speed. I'm sure he works his tail off this summer. His attitude is fantastic.

If nothing else, he gives us a different look to match up with different teams and players. Being able to draw your big man defender out of the lane to try to block a three can not be overvalued when you have Nolan, Irving, Curry, and Dawkins all able and willing to drive and finish at the rim.

[jsw12]

Kelly seems like an ideal "stretch 4" that the NBA is very fond of (not that I think he will definitely be an NBA player). He has the size to play the 4 on defense but will lure bigger players away from the basket with his ability to shoot and make entry passes (of which we saw some glimpses this season)

Where this will make a huge impact is unclogging the lane for a 3 guard offense that revolves around Irving, Nolan and Curry. Those three, especially Kyrie and Nolan, are fantastic at getting into the lane and scoring. With Kelly taking a post player out of there, the guards should have more space to operate effectively.

It's going to be fun to see a lot of slashing layups and alley oops to the Plumlees next year.

[GoingFor#5]

He's gotta bulk up big time. I definitely don't think a skinny 3-pt shooting big man is going to fit into our plans the next few seasons so he needs to help us in the post and rebounding with the occassional outside J.

[kyriecrazy2013]

I think Ryan Kelly can develop into a rich man's Nick Horvath. Similar size and mobility.

Except Nick Horvath was about 250 lbs. and extremely ripped. So not really the same size... And Kelly has a much higher basketball IQ and a much better offensive game. Horvath was more like Thomas than Kelly.

[kyriecrazy2013]

It's going to be fun to see a lot of slashing layups and alley oops to the Plumlees next year.

Well said. I've been trying to convince everyone around me that the drives are going to draw extra post defenders and cause rotation of defenders on the outside so we are going to see lots of alley-oops and open kick-out threes. I can't wait!

I think when Kelly is in, he will be taking 3's; he's not going to be the recipient of any alley-oops. But honestly, I think his playing time really depends on how he progresses in athleticism and how hard he works over the off-season. K usually has stayed away from tossing the ball to players in the post and letting them work (exceptions Boozer, S. Williams) so Kelly's main role is going to be taking 3's and mid-range jumpers (not to mention passing to cutting guards or open guards).

[ElSid]

Except Nick Horvath was about 250 lbs. and extremely ripped. So not really the same size... And Kelly has a much higher basketball IQ and a much better offensive game. Horvath was more like Thomas than Kelly.

Horvath was that big? Wow, I misremembered him I guess.

Maybe it's that they are equally goofy looking, in an endearing way.

[kyriecrazy2013]

Horvath was that big? Wow, I misremembered him I guess.

Maybe it's that they are equally goofy looking, in an endearing way.

Haha, yes they are both kind of goofy, but much better basketball players than us:D

[ElSid]

Haha, yes they are both kind of goofy, but much better basketball players than us:D

yep...that sort of makes up for it then doesn't it. unfortunately i might be just as goofy looking.

[MChambers]

Horvath was that big? Wow, I misremembered him I guess.

Maybe it's that they are equally goofy looking, in an endearing way.

Horvath wasn't that big at first. He got a lot stronger.

[kyriecrazy2013]

Horvath wasn't that big at first. He got a lot stronger.

He was 215 when he came in but weighed 225 when he actually played (Freshman year). Kelly Was 205 and now weighs 220, but their games are/were completely different.

[Kedsy]

He was 215 when he came in but weighed 225 when he actually played (Freshman year). Kelly Was 205 and now weighs 220, but their games are/were completely different.

Actually, Horvath in his freshman year was very much a perimeter player. He launched 50 3-pt shots that season (making 18) in only 8.4 minutes per game. The following year, he tried 12 3-pt shots in only 6 games before he was injured and out for the year, giving him 62 3-pt attempts in his first 38 games. After his redshirt year he returned bulkier, and he only tried 62 3-pt attempts in his final three years combined (95 games).

[Welcome2DaSlopes]

I see Ryan Kelly skill set, very similar to John Henson's of unc

[CDu]

I see Ryan Kelly skill set, very similar to John Henson's of unc

I disagree. Henson is a very poor shooter who gets by on athleticism and length to get a lot of rebounds and blocks around the rim. Nearly all of his points come in transition or off of putbacks/alleyoops. Kelly has a much better shooting touch and a variety of shots (it didn't show this year due to lack of PT) and is a better passer, but isn't nearly the athlete that Henson is. His shotblocking and steals come thanks to good positioning and timing.

Henson is the far superior rebounder and shotblocker. Kelly is the superior shooter and passer/decisionmaker. The only thing I really see in common is that both players could use several pounds to get more out of their games.

[Classof06]

I think Kelly will be fine. Ultimately, he didn't get much playing time as a freshman on a National Championship team. That's nothing to hang his head over. I thought Kelly did alright with the time he was given. He clearly didn't dominate, but never looked out of place. To me, at least.

That being said, I think next season will be critical for Ryan. Duke will once again have 4 big men with the Brothers Plumlee, Hairston and Kelly, if you consider him a frontcourt player. I'm curious to see whether Kelly snatches those minutes as a 3rd big man, or if Hairston does.

Given Duke's logjam in the backcourt and the recruitment of Felix and Gbinije (both of whom I'm guessing will play the 3), I don't see how Kelly will be necessarily able to play the 3. That doesn't mean he won't get to showcase his perimeter game, but he'll have to learn to guard frontcourt players on the defensive end at the every least.

This is a big summer for Kelly. Very much looking forward to seeing him play next year.

[BD80]

Kelly is seriously dating Bill Cowher's daughter. Think there will be incentive for him to bulk up a bit?

[Osiagledknarf]

Kelly is seriously dating Bill Cowher's daughter. Think there will be incentive for him to bulk up a bit?

What does this has to do with anything?

[greybeard]

Seems little question that Ryan will have to guard 4s and 5s and be defended by them. I think, as I said before, that he can be extremely potent as a pivot for the offense, and as a scorer. The real question is how Duke will defend when he is in. Might see more zone principles if not a straight up zone aka Syracuse.

When he is on the floor, I think that Duke's focus will be shooting early in the clock and scoring lots of points.

[Lord Ash]

Ryan will get plenty of time. His basketball IQ is off the charts, his passing touch is deft, and he had a good handle. He was one of the VERY top recruits in the country. Don't worry, he will play plenty.

[amat1129]

Duke needs him to be not just a solid offensive player but a valuable interior defender and rebounder, a crucial key to success next year will be the ability of him and Hairston to come in and provide a solid 4 man post rotation along with the MPs. Like so many players the ability to defend will ultimately decide his playing time

[Newton_14]

I am sticking to my original opinion that Kelly will end up being a really good player for Duke over his 4 years. His playing time and impact will increase year over year. Once he gains strength and works on lateral quickness he will be fine. With his length he will be able to guard 4's and even some 5's.

At times next season depending on the opponent and matchups he may see a few minutes backing Miles up at the 5. Ryan has a really good skillset and I think starting next year we will start to see him making an impact. I think K will stick with the rotation of 4 bigs much like he did this year. Ryan and Josh will be backing up Miles and Mason. Nice rotation there.

The next few years look very promising and Ryan will make his mark along the way.

[Big Pappa]

I see Ryan getting good minutes at the 4 as well as at the 3 from time to time when Coach K wants to go big. I don't see him playing the 5 without one of the Plumlees on the floor unless he adds significant bulk this summer.

[verga]

Ryan has a skill and it's shooting the ball, his shot is a little flat and he does tend to lean a little forward during the release (i've always wondered why coach K didn't have Chip Englland work with some of the guys on their mechanics?). He is a scorer, if anyone saw him when he played with John Wall on the AAU circuit, you'd know he is a scorer and a pretty good shot blocker. He was out of his league physically last year but a year of the weights and maturation should find him ready to contribute in 2010/2011. He also is a very good passer, in fact i'd say he's the best passer on the team, he's a smart kid and i think he will surprise the fans this upcoming year. 2010 National Champions,sounds great doesn't it?

[Cameron]

Ryan has a skill and it's shooting the ball, his shot is a little flat and he does tend to lean a little forward during the release (i've always wondered why coach K didn't have Chip Englland work with some of the guys on their mechanics?). He is a scorer, if anyone saw him when he played with John Wall on the AAU circuit, you'd know he is a scorer and a pretty good shot blocker.

Is Engelland still working in the NBA with the Miami Heat (or was it the Orlando Magic)? That may be why. He's probably a busy man with his own basketball coaching career.

We have a pretty sufficient textbook shooter of our own sitting down on the bench, and one in Singler that plays. What better example than a guy in the same size and mold of Kelly to show Ryan the proper mechanics of a sweet, sweet stroke. The bench reference being Chris "2 Legit 2 Quit, Downtown" Collins.

[tele]

(i've always wondered why coach K didn't have Chip Englland work with some of the guys on their mechanics?).

I can't help but remember Chip and Coach K's prior work together on man to man defense.

[Kedsy]

...a crucial key to success next year will be the ability of him and Hairston to come in and provide a solid 4 man post rotation along with the MPs.


I'd like to start by saying I'm not intending to pick on the person quoted above, but rather the seemingly constant talk similar to his quoted assertion.

Honestly, when was the last time before 2009-10 we used a four man rotation at the C and PF spots? Why is doing it exactly like the previous year always "critical" or "crucial"?

Before this season started, so many people were questioning what we were going to do without G and Elliot, where were we going to find pure athletes to replace them? People were concerned about using a rotation of non-scoring bigs and not having a "real" PG who could blow through the opposition like the great Duke PGs of olde.

Now, after listening to that for a year we have to hear about how critical it is to have a "solid four man post rotation" and how are we going to replace Jon's savvy and Lance's versatile defense and Z's offensive rebounding.

Well, guess what? We're NOT going to replace anything. We're not even going to try. We're going to have a completely different team that plays a completely different style than the 2010 National Champions.

And you know what else? It's a good thing. It happens that we have four big men who could play in a rotation next year, but if it doesn't work out that way it's really no big deal because instead of a three (occasionally four) man guard/wing rotation we'll have six capable perimeter players, all of whom can play at a much faster pace than this year's team was capable of.

One of the beautiful things about college basketball is you don't have to play the same way every year and hope you can replace the pieces lost from the previous season. Instead you throw all the pieces on the floor and pick them up and assemble a whole new thing.

Next year's Ryan Kelly, after a summer in the weight room, will be an entirely different sort of player than any who played regular minutes in 2009-10. Kyrie Irving, Seth Curry, Josh Hairston, Carrick Felix, Ty Thornton, sophomore Andre Dawkins and sophomore Mason Plumlee will all be very different from anyone on our active roster this year. Even senior Nolan and junior Miles might be different. It's a whole new ballgame, and watching how K puts the pieces together is a big part of what makes it fun.

OK, I feel better now. I apologize for going on like that.

[Ultrarunner]

I'd like to start by saying I'm not intending to pick on the person quoted....

....One of the beautiful things about college basketball is you don't have to play the same way every year and hope you can replace the pieces lost from the previous season. Instead you throw all the pieces on the floor and pick them up and assemble a whole new thing.....


OK, I feel better now. I apologize for going on like that.


No apology needed! Thank you.

[NSDukeFan]

One of the beautiful things about college basketball is you don't have to play the same way every year and hope you can replace the pieces lost from the previous season. Instead you throw all the pieces on the floor and pick them up and assemble a whole new thing.


Nice helpful reminder in the rest of your post. This part here I replied to makes me think of how it's nice to have coach K, who is able to change his style to fit his personnel, as this statement is certainly not the case for every program.

[ACCBBallFan]

Kedsy,

As you alledge, I too do not think Duke would play a 4 man post rotation by design, as until last season that was not their Modus Operandi.

However, since the Plumlees are both foul prone, I do think that Duke may end playing all 4 bigs by necessity, since that has been the MP's M. O.

Not that Ryan Kelly #6 in his class or Josh Hairston #18 in his are bad options to have, but Kyle Singler returning as a 5th big and 7th perimeter guy would surely alleviate any depth concerns.

[Cisco]

Do you guys think that Ryan Kelly is an NBA-caliber player ?

You guys seem very high on him, and I know he has EXCELLENT shooting ability, especially for somebody that is 6-9 / 6-10

And in regard to bulk , you think being 240 would make him as good as Singler?

[Big Pappa]

Do you guys think that Ryan Kelly is an NBA-caliber player ?

You guys seem very high on him, and I know he has EXCELLENT shooting ability, especially for somebody that is 6-9 / 6-10

And in regard to bulk , you think being 240 would make him as good as Singler?

I think he could end up being an NBA role player. I watched Ryan play in HS and he is a dominate scorer.

In regard to Kyle they are very different types of players. While Kyle can certainly be a catch and shoot guy he also very good off the dribble, something Ryan needs work on. Ryan is also significantly longer than Kyle is and with some bulk I think he could be a very good defender. If Ryan does one thing better than Kyle it is seeing the floor, he is an excellent passer. And, as you said, he is a great shoot (won the 3-point contest at the McDonald's game two years ago).

[Mcluhan]

Kedsy,

As you alledge, I too do not think Duke would play a 4 man post rotation by design, as until last season that was not their Modus Operandi.

However, since the Plumlees are both foul prone, I do think that Duke may end playing all 4 bigs by necessity, since that has been the MP's M. O.


Right. I don't see the Plumlees' tendencies for silly fouls to be completely solved by next season (it's critical that they be at least improved in this department), and therefore we're going to need two big bodies behind them.


Not that Ryan Kelly #6 in his class or Josh Hairston #18 in his are bad options to have, but Kyle Singler returning as a 5th big and 7th perimeter guy would surely alleviate any depth concerns.

It seems a bit odd to refer to Kyle as either a 5th big or a 7th perimeter player! If he comes back I'm pretty sure that plans will be built around him and Nolan. Kyle will not be fit into some other plan.

Both Plumlees have the potential to be great rebounders, and Kyle has shown the ability to rebound quite well from the 3, while at the same time playing the 3 suits the rest of his game.

[Kedsy]

Kedsy,

As you alledge, I too do not think Duke would play a 4 man post rotation by design, as until last season that was not their Modus Operandi.

However, since the Plumlees are both foul prone, I do think that Duke may end playing all 4 bigs by necessity, since that has been the MP's M. O.

Not that Ryan Kelly #6 in his class or Josh Hairston #18 in his are bad options to have, but Kyle Singler returning as a 5th big and 7th perimeter guy would surely alleviate any depth concerns.

I completely agree with everything you say here. I expect both Ryan and Josh to be valuable contributors, and barring something unforeseen, I fully expect Duke to play a four big man rotation next year, because that's what our personnel suggests we'll play. However, I don't think it's critical that we do so, which was the original intent of my rant (which admittedly moved beyond that as I was typing it).

And to the poster who questioned how anyone could label Kyle a 5th big or 7th perimeter player, I'm certain ACCBBallFan was merely counting, and not suggesting that would be Kyle's place in the rotation.

[CDu]

I think he could end up being an NBA role player. I watched Ryan play in HS and he is a dominate scorer.

In regard to Kyle they are very different types of players. While Kyle can certainly be a catch and shoot guy he also very good off the dribble, something Ryan needs work on. Ryan is also significantly longer than Kyle is and with some bulk I think he could be a very good defender. If Ryan does one thing better than Kyle it is seeing the floor, he is an excellent passer. And, as you said, he is a great shoot (won the 3-point contest at the McDonald's game two years ago).

I think that Kelly could make himself into an NBA player with time. His skillset for a guy his height is useful, if his body can catch up. However, I think people should not think of Kelly compared to Singler. The two are very different styles of player.

I think this all stems from the early misconceptions (in my opinion) that Kelly was a Dunleavy-type player. I think we should be thinking of Kelly in the Shav Randolph/Tom Gugliotta, euro-style big man mold instead.

Kelly has great court vision and passing ability for a big man, and would make a great high-low partner with another talented big. He's also capable of scoring from a variety of spots on the floor. Where he differs offensively from Singler is that Singler is much more guard-like in his desire to put the ball on the floor or run off of screens than Kelly. And on defense, Singler is more of a perimeter-oriented defender. Kelly is more suited to guard in the post (once he gets stronger).

[SupaDave]

I think that Kelly could make himself into an NBA player with time. His skillset for a guy his height is useful, if his body can catch up. However, I think people should not think of Kelly compared to Singler. The two are very different styles of player.

I think this all stems from the early misconceptions (in my opinion) that Kelly was a Dunleavy-type player. I think we should be thinking of Kelly in the Shav Randolph/Tom Gugliotta, euro-style big man mold instead.

Kelly has great court vision and passing ability for a big man, and would make a great high-low partner with another talented big. He's also capable of scoring from a variety of spots on the floor. Where he differs offensively from Singler is that Singler is much more guard-like in his desire to put the ball on the floor or run off of screens than Kelly. And on defense, Singler is more of a perimeter-oriented defender. Kelly is more suited to guard in the post (once he gets stronger).

Actually when I look at Kelly he reminds me of Bo Outlaw - with just a bit more range.

[Kfanarmy]

I think all too often people address player capabilities without a reasonable in-game sample. Defining Ryan Kelly based upon the limited number of minutes and restricted role he was asked to play in 2009-2010 is premature in my opinion. I'd really like to see what he is capable of if he were a 1st option, or were really needed to step up. Until then, what he is/isn't capable of is a bit of a mystery to me.



I think that Kelly could make himself into an NBA player with time. His skillset for a guy his height is useful, if his body can catch up. However, I think people should not think of Kelly compared to Singler. The two are very different styles of player..... Where he differs offensively from Singler is that Singler is much more guard-like in his desire to put the ball on the floor or run off of screens than Kelly. And on defense, Singler is more of a perimeter-oriented defender. Kelly is more suited to guard in the post (once he gets stronger).

[MChambers]

I think all too often people address player capabilities without a reasonable in-game sample. Defining Ryan Kelly based upon the limited number of minutes and restricted role he was asked to play in 2009-2010 is premature in my opinion. I'd really like to see what he is capable of if he were a 1st option, or were really needed to step up. Until then, what he is/isn't capable of is a bit of a mystery to me.

Not to mention that Ryan Kelly next fall won't be the same player he was in January.

[phaedrus]

Actually when I look at Kelly he reminds me of Bo Outlaw - with just a bit more range.

An absurdly athletic, tenacious rebounder and defensive specialist with little to no penchant for offense?

I'm not so sure.

[SupaDave]

An absurdly athletic, tenacious rebounder and defensive specialist with little to no penchant for offense?

I'm not so sure.

Bo Outlaw was hardly absurdly athletic (he didn't even get drafted) and his body type is very much similiar to Kelly's in weight and height. Outlaw was a defensive player (can't call him a specialist) known as a hustle guy and a rebounder. A role Kelly will probably expand on next year - with much more shooting. Kelly knows he has to bring the energy and I think he will.

[Lord Ash]

I would tend to think that Ryan Kelly will be primarily a scorer, as an overall role. I think that has always been what he is best at... scoring the basketball.

[SupaDave]

I would tend to think that Ryan Kelly will be primarily a scorer, as an overall role. I think that has always been what he is best at... scoring the basketball.

Just remember that you gotta play "D" to get on the court to score...

[phaedrus]

Bo Outlaw was hardly absurdly athletic (he didn't even get drafted) and his body type is very much similiar to Kelly's in weight and height. Outlaw was a defensive player (can't call him a specialist) known as a hustle guy and a rebounder. A role Kelly will probably expand on next year - with much more shooting. Kelly knows he has to bring the energy and I think he will.

Ben Wallace, a more fitting (although superior) comparison to Outlaw, didn't get drafted either. Your description of Outlaw is accurate, and those are certainly attributes I'd like to see from all Duke players. But I hope, unlike Bo, RK picks up a few non-garbage baskets in his career.

Come to think of it, LT is a fairly apt comparison to Bo. I certainly don't see RK filling the same role.

[Greg_Newton]

It might take another year or two, but when Kelly finally gets completely comfortable with the speed and power of the college game, I think he'll be very good. There's a reason he was a top-15 recruit - he was a flat-out baller in high school.

He'll be valuable as a 6'10 shooter/passer/shot-blocker if he can get strong enough to defend the post, but he's got a lot more than that up his sleeve. He played tentative this year - understandably - and never looked very comfortable putting the ball on the floor or doing anything too bold. He never really got low with the ball and tried to break down his defender like he did in high school; he was more often reacting to what the defender and his teammates were doing. Not a knock on him, as I imagine that was his role.

I just think when/if he gets comfortable playing loose and doing what comes naturally to him at this level, I think folks will be pretty surprised with his all-around skills.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Just remember that you gotta play "D" to get on the court to score...

Which Kelly didn't do much of this year. And Bo Outlaw definitely did a lot back in the day.

I really don't see the comparison...

[SupaDave]

Which Kelly didn't do much of this year. And Bo Outlaw definitely did a lot back in the day.

I really don't see the comparison...

Really just who he reminds me of - he doesn't have to BE Outlaw - but that's a place I think he can go quite easily. I see something that makes me think that Kelly could easily be as effective as Outlaw with his length and smarts. In college Outlaw wasn't a garbage point guy - he avgd. 14 a game. As most mentioned, once he gets that body stronger - he could be special.

[Waynne]

I think Ryan will be very important to our success as a team next year as a back-up to the Plumlees. Miles and Mason aren't going to play 40 minutes each and will undoubtedly encounter foul trouble at times. If Ryan can get stronger and improve as a defensive player he will get decent PT. He already
is a good passer and shooter with very good court vision so he should be fine offensively.

Will he make the necessary jump over the summer to become an important contributor? I think the chances are good because he allegedly is a student of the game who works very hard. If he makes a huge jump he could even contend for a starting job, but I don't think that will happen until his junior or senior year.

[Newton_14]

It might take another year or two, but when Kelly finally gets completely comfortable with the speed and power of the college game, I think he'll be very good. There's a reason he was a top-15 recruit - he was a flat-out baller in high school.

He'll be valuable as a 6'10 shooter/passer/shot-blocker if he can get strong enough to defend the post, but he's got a lot more than that up his sleeve. He played tentative this year - understandably - and never looked very comfortable putting the ball on the floor or doing anything too bold. He never really got low with the ball and tried to break down his defender like he did in high school; he was more often reacting to what the defender and his teammates were doing. Not a knock on him, as I imagine that was his role.

I just think when/if he gets comfortable playing loose and doing what comes naturally to him at this level, I think folks will be pretty surprised with his all-around skills.

Pretty much sums up my thoughts on the kid. I think you are spot on. Plus, Kelly has the rep of being a gym rat and a very hard worker. That is how he transformed himself from a mid-major recruit into a Top 15 high-major recruit. I think Kelly;s ceiling is very high and in the end some may be surprised at how good he ends up being. Just isn't going to happen overnight. Or heck, maybe it does. Would not surprise me either way to be honest.

[greybeard]

Think Novinsi's catch and score game inside of 15-16 feet. Lots of ways to bring it into shooting, shooting off of either foot from foul line range on in, catching holding high slightly over hair line, faking two hand passes will either get shot blocker's to lift up or freeze them to grown as they reach without committing momentum upward. Wither way the shot is then available with no possibility to block, as it beating defender with one bounce to space.

There is no one on this team, Kyle included, who that kid should be modeling his game after. Nor, in my opinion, will a shot guru be of any assistance with his shot. If he wants to alter trajectory, he needs to take lots of shots from in close and fidel with different parts of his set up, where tension is held, where arms are, finger placement on ball, tension in hands, etc., and figure out for himself what combination will produce the ball flight he is after, a combination that fits how he presents, not how someone wants him to, IN MY OPINION OF COURSE.

[Big Pappa]

I think Ryan will be very important to our success as a team next year as a back-up to the Plumlees.

I agree with this but I also think that he will get significant minutes at the 3 when Coach K wants to go bigger. He came in for Kyle a few times this year and looks very comfortable on the wing. Ryan is an absolute scoring MACHINE and he can do it in a variety of ways. With work I think he will be able to defend other ACC 3's. He doesn't have quite the foot-speed Kyle has but is longer and a better shot blocker.

[Bob Green]

I agree with this but I also think that he will get significant minutes at the 3 when Coach K wants to go bigger.

Once again, I agree with Big Pappa. Using Jumbo's Plus/Minus thread as a reference, there were 10 line-ups utilized in 2009-10 with Kelly playing small forward. He has the offensive skills to play on the wing and so if he can develop corresponding defensive skills small forward is an option for Kelly.

The down side of playing Kelly on the wing is we are already packed with perimeter talent.

[NSDukeFan]

Once again, I agree with Big Pappa. Using Jumbo's Plus/Minus thread as a reference, there were 10 line-ups utilized in 2009-10 with Kelly playing small forward. He has the offensive skills to play on the wing and so if he can develop corresponding defensive skills small forward is an option for Kelly.

The down side of playing Kelly on the wing is we are already packed with perimeter talent.
I was surprised to see that Ryan played the 3 this year. I don't have any doubt that he has the offensive ability to play the 3 and it would be a huge bonus if he could improve his footwork and speed enough to be able to play there defensively. I am a bit skeptical, and agree it would probably be unnecessary next year, but it would be great if he could defend on the perimeter as well as inside. This still could be a big advantage this year on defensive switches. Here's to hoping you two are right.

Pretty much sums up my thoughts on the kid. I think you are spot on. Plus, Kelly has the rep of being a gym rat and a very hard worker. That is how he transformed himself from a mid-major recruit into a Top 15 high-major recruit. I think Kelly;s ceiling is very high and in the end some may be surprised at how good he ends up being. Just isn't going to happen overnight. Or heck, maybe it does. Would not surprise me either way to be honest.
I also agree with you and Greg Newton in that I am expecting good things from Ryan next year and for the rest of his time at Duke. I don't expect him to be great overnight, but I am hoping for great improvement in the next 7 months. :)

[CrazieDUMB]

The weird thing about Ryan is that his offense doesn't match his defense in terms of positioning. His shooting abilities as well as his other scoring options make him well suited to be a SF/3, with his ability to go over his defender. However, as it's been mentioned before, it doesn't seem like he has the footspeed to keep up with 3's that can drive.

As far as a PF/4, I don't see him as a post guy. Maybe the high post, where he can use his passing and length to distribute, but I don't see him muscling people out for positioning and offensive rebounds around the basket. However, I do think that with his height and weight he should be able to defend as a 4. Maybe it's a fallacy that I'm using a very similar evidence to argue that he's good and bad as a 4, but for some reason that's the way I see it.

Anyways, I think his role will be to relieve minutes at the 4 and use his shooting stroke to draw defenders away from the basket, opening up driving lanes for Kyrie, Nolan and Seth. He could be extremely valuable for us if he can defend the post.

[airowe]

Once again, I agree with Big Pappa. Using Jumbo's Plus/Minus thread as a reference, there were 10 line-ups utilized in 2009-10 with Kelly playing small forward. He has the offensive skills to play on the wing and so if he can develop corresponding defensive skills small forward is an option for Kelly.

The down side of playing Kelly on the wing is we are already packed with perimeter talent.

Even though Kelly played "SF" in 10 lineup configurations, many of those were during mop-up duty and none of them were very effective. Without knowing exactly who Ryan was guarding, I'd venture to guess that Mason guarded the 3 in the times when they were in the game together.

The staff wants Ryan to add bulk, he's been doing it since he got here. Why would they ask him to do this so he could play on the perimeter? If he is able to add the muscle Duke wants him to, Ryan is much more likely to be a backup center than a backup wing.

We have Andre, Josh, Carrick, and hopefully Kyle to play the 3 next year. Maybe even Seth or Nolan in a 3 guard lineup. Ryan will be used where he is most needed, at the 4 and 5. Whether he shoots the ball from there or from the outside has no bearing on this discussion.

[sivartrenrag]

I love this kid. Once he gets used to the speed of the game and his body catches up, he's going to terrific. His bball IQ is off the charts, and he's a great passer with good court vision. I think he'll figure out some things this summer and he'll return a very improved player.

[whereinthehellami]

I was looking at Kelly's stats on ESPN.com and thought these numbers were interesting:


Kelly had 5 Did Not Plays.


Kelly had 8 games where he played double digits in minutes (Averaged 6.5 MPG).


Kelly had more assists than TOs.


Kelly had 4 blocks aginst Gonzaga (14 for the year).


Kelly's season high was 9 pts aginst Radford (18 minutes).

[CoBlueDevil]

I found an interesting piece on rivals.com. It's about five star recruits from '09 that are not stars yet. Kelly is one of them. Pretty cool.

[Tim1515]

I love this kid. Once he gets used to the speed of the game and his body catches up, he's going to terrific. His bball IQ is off the charts, and he's a great passer with good court vision. I think he'll figure out some things this summer and he'll return a very improved player.

I agree with this completely. I love Kelly's game. He was a late bloomer in high school and i expect the same in college. Next year might not be his breakout but it isn't far away. I expect he turns himself into a 1st round NBA draft pick before he leaves Duke.

[gumbomoop]

I agree with this completely. I love Kelly's game. He was a late bloomer in high school and i expect the same in college. Next year might not be his breakout but it isn't far away. I expect he turns himself into a 1st round NBA draft pick before he leaves Duke.

Count me in as expecting, well, a semi-breakout year for RK in '10-'11, for these reasons:

1. Depth at 4-5 nowhere near what it was in NC [!!!!] year [!!!!!!!!!].
2. As several observant posters noted during our NC [!!!!!!!] year [!!!!!!!!], RK simply was last guy among our 5 Bigs, so just wasn't going to get much PT.
3. But in our upcoming NC run [!!!, etc], RK is #3 among Bigs, and will play some, I think a lot.
4. Specifically, because he is a player [shoot, high-post-pass, blocks, rebounds, yes, and smarts, yes], he will get time at 4 as backup to MP2, and when MP2 switches to post, when MP2 relieves MP1 there. Any short-term injury to either MP, and RK starts.
5. I mean no disrespect to those who are higher on JH, nor to those who think KS slides back [= backslide??] into 4 for significant minutes, , nor to those who imagine somehow that CF might play some 4, ........ but I'm metaphorically laying money on RK to play 15-20 mpg, just possibly a bit more. I am not off my rocker, at least on this account [though of course I could be wrong].
6. Even at 20 mpg, however, RK may fall short of "breakout," depending on how one defines it, for it's unlikely that he scores lots of points. We got too many scorers; indeed, were it not for the fact that K is an all-everything-thinker [in contrast to other quasi-coaches one could name.....], next season we could have several frustrated players.
7. But I'd guess RK scores double-figures a few times, and will be an obvious weapon at high post.

[CEF1959]

I think RK has the skills. With playing time and hard practices will come confidence. I see next year as a transition year, then a break out the following year. By then he and the coaching staff will figure out what kind of player he's supposed to be. I'm not sure they know yet.

He only played 6.5 mpg, and had the lowest points-per-shot average on the team, often taking what seemed to be tentative shots. I hope he continues to work hard, to believe in himself and that the staff continues to believe in him. I like him a lot as a growth stock. But it's a project.

[gofurman]

I agree with this completely. I love Kelly's game. He was a late bloomer in high school and i expect the same in college. Next year might not be his breakout but it isn't far away. I expect he turns himself into a 1st round NBA draft pick before he leaves Duke.

a first-rounder? I hope you are right. He just seems awful thin right now...

[Newton_14]

I was looking at Kelly's stats on ESPN.com and thought these numbers were interesting:


Kelly had 5 Did Not Plays.


Kelly had 8 games where he played double digits in minutes (Averaged 6.5 MPG).


Kelly had more assists than TOs.


Kelly had 4 blocks aginst Gonzaga (14 for the year).


Kelly's season high was 9 pts aginst Radford (18 minutes).



I have not looked it up, but are you sure about the 9 points? I could have sworn he scored 18 in one of the early games. Maybe it was one of the exhibition games and therefore would not count?

[gumbomoop]

I think RK has the skills. With playing time and hard practices will come confidence. I see next year as a transition year, then a break out the following year. By then he and the coaching staff will figure out what kind of player he's supposed to be. I'm not sure they know yet.

He only played 6.5 mpg, and had the lowest points-per-shot average on the team, often taking what seemed to be tentative shots. I hope he continues to work hard, to believe in himself and that the staff continues to believe in him. I like him a lot as a growth stock. But it's a project.

Good insights here, and I will try to keep these in mind as I rather too frequently post for the next 6 months, "Kelly's a player!" [You idiots!!]

You do raise important points about confidence, possible uncertainty issues given his "last-man" status this season [our NC season], in-game-tentativeness, and growth-project.

All posters/readers are already so excited about '10-'11, only tempering our expectations with self-reminders about intriguing questions for K to "answer." I'm guessing that our collective enthusiasm will for awhile focus on KI, MPs, 90 PPG, full-court D, fight for minutes. It's probably only when we consider this last-named issue that RK's role gets much thought.

A good deal of my RK-projection, as friendly-amended by your RK-project, derives from the graduation of LT and Z, and the subsequent need for significant minutes from either soph RK or frosh JH. No question that KS could play some 4 when either MP leaves the floor; under that scenario, about which I am dubious, RK-project would be slowed down considerably. But if the contest for Big #3 is between RK and JH, I'm confident RK has edge. [Others are confident in other direction.]

So we'll see how quickly the RK-project captures our attention, and why.

[amat1129]

the most positive thing going for RK is that theres is little pressure on him to be a dominant back to the basket inside player. In years past having a 6'10'' player would be such a luxury that he would inevitably have to play inside for a majority of the time. Having so much frontcourt depth in the MP's, Singler and Hairston Kelly will be able to play his natural game on the perimeter and outside of the key while still hopefully contributing a great deal on the interior defense and rebounding.

[Kedsy]

a first-rounder? I hope you are right. He just seems awful thin right now...

Yeah, well I was thin once too. Things change over time.

[Devilsfan]

Looks like we'll be playing a lot of four guard rotation unless he decides to hit the weight room and show tremendous work ethic in building his body into ACC caliber rather than perfecting his outside shot where we're loaded with quickness and talent.

[CDu]

Even though Kelly played "SF" in 10 lineup configurations, many of those were during mop-up duty and none of them were very effective. Without knowing exactly who Ryan was guarding, I'd venture to guess that Mason guarded the 3 in the times when they were in the game together.

We have Andre, Josh, Carrick, and hopefully Kyle to play the 3 next year. Maybe even Seth or Nolan in a 3 guard lineup. Ryan will be used where he is most needed, at the 4 and 5. Whether he shoots the ball from there or from the outside has no bearing on this discussion.

I don't have the time to go back and check, but I'd be VERY surprised if Mason guarded the 3 whenever he and Kelly shared the floor together. Of course, I'm guessing that the number of minutes that both shared the floor with either Miles or Zoubek is probably REALLY small. But I think Mason's strength made him a better fit on a big, and neither had the quickness to guard on the perimeter.

That said, I agree that I'd expect Kelly to move back to his natural position at 4/5 next year. Offensively, he'll be a perimeter-oriented 4/5, but he'll be a 4/5. We won't have any need for him to play out of position again with the wing depth we'll have.

[greybeard]

Looks like we'll be playing a lot of four guard rotation unless he decides to hit the weight room and show tremendous work ethic in building his body into ACC caliber rather than perfecting his outside shot where we're loaded with quickness and talent.

I think it would be a misstake for trainers to look for too much development in terms of body mass for Ryan in the next year. We need only look to Brian to see that when the body is ready, for Brian it was that summer between his junior and senior year, the amount of mass that can be added increases dramatically.

My uneducated sense from seeing the development of undermuscled body types is that working small with lower measurable goals--muscle mass and size, explosiveness, even speed of movement--can lead to very discernible differences in on-court performance for players with talent.

I do not expect that Ryan will approach everything near what he eventually will in terms of physical development by next season and I think that it would be wrong to torture the kid with killer workouts in an attempt to try. I hope that the training staff is smarter than that, but do not know that the people in that profession, who work with high-end athletes, are particularly good at making realistic assessments and keeping athletes like Ryan in the gym only as long as it is useful, which in his case might be a lot shorter time, and with a lot less intense workouts, then others.

Again, as I've said earlier, I think that the biggest bang for Ryan's buck will be to hang around the basket, shooting shots off of different feet, different step combinations, different ways of bringing it up to shooting with different hands (depending on which hand dribbling with and in which direction). Diversity in that game, which in my experience is best developed by practicing in close and translates easily out further once you have it figured out, will I believe make Ryan's time on the floor next season much more productive than overtaxing him physically in ways that will stress joints but not produce the results that the training is "designed" to produce.

PS I think that many players next season might be playing positions that defy easy definition as 3/4/5s. Ryan, I think will be one of them.

Here's a little more speculative insight: I think that Kyle could do worse than watch how Ryan plays off the bounce when moving slow (aka Scheyer) to set up a pull up, or step through shot, etc. I think that this is one of Ryan's best skill sets--he can play relatively upright with a high bounce and catch and avoid the help with deft movement of the ball, which often produces a lapse by the on-ball defender that can be exploited with an easy shot. I think that last year, especially during the early part of the season, they had Kyle trying to develop a style that had him low in a power and protected position. I think in the mid range game there is room for very effective play in the more upright bounce game that I think Ryan is very good at.

[CDu]

PS I think that many players next season might be playing positions that defy easy definition as 3/4/5s. Ryan, I think will be one of them.

I agree that we'll probably see lots of different and not easily defined roles for our 3s, 4s, and 5s next year. I just want to add to this. I think a common mistake some people (not you, greybeard) have to the term "3", "4", and "5" is that this is an offensive terminology and is associated with specific offensive roles. I don't think Duke has ever really specified a particular offensive role for the 3-5 spots. They've identified particular offensive roles for players who happen to play the 3-5 spots. But those roles are not attached to particular players.

This past year (and especially the latter half of the season) was very different for Duke in that they clearly defined the role of the 4/5 guys to be that of a screener/rebounder, almost completely regardless of who was playing the 4/5 spots. But that's not the way it has typically been for Duke. Duke has historically played many perimeter-oriented (offensively) guys at the 4 and 5. Battier was a face-up 4. McLeod was an inside/outside guy. Dunleavy played out of position as a face-up 4 for a year. Singler was a perimeter-oriented 4/5 as a frosh and soph. Laettner could play inside or outside, but he certainly took his fair share of perimeter looks as a 5. So offensively, Kelly's preference for the perimeter is nothing new for Duke - even if his particular skillset may be more unique.

I think the term 3, 4, or 5 should instead be thought of as a defensive terminology (i.e., what type of player you're likely to guard). For one, I think this is probably more in line with the way Duke thinks of it anyway (defense gets you on the floor). But it will also maybe help people start to think more broadly about the vast array of offensive roles that these positions can have.

[CEF1959]

I agree that we'll probably see lots of different and not easily defined roles for our 3s, 4s, and 5s next year. I just want to add to this. I think a common mistake some people (not you, greybeard) have to the term "3", "4", and "5" is that this is an offensive terminology and is associated with specific offensive roles. I don't think Duke has ever really specified a particular offensive role for the 3-5 spots. They've identified particular offensive roles for players who happen to play the 3-5 spots. But those roles are not attached to particular players.

This past year (and especially the latter half of the season) was very different for Duke in that they clearly defined the role of the 4/5 guys to be that of a screener/rebounder, almost completely regardless of who was playing the 4/5 spots. But that's not the way it has typically been for Duke. Duke has historically played many perimeter-oriented (offensively) guys at the 4 and 5. Battier was a face-up 4. McLeod was an inside/outside guy. Dunleavy played out of position as a face-up 4 for a year. Singler was a perimeter-oriented 4/5 as a frosh and soph. Laettner could play inside or outside, but he certainly took his fair share of perimeter looks as a 5. So offensively, Kelly's preference for the perimeter is nothing new for Duke - even if his particular skillset may be more unique.

I think the term 3, 4, or 5 should instead be thought of as a defensive terminology (i.e., what type of player you're likely to guard). For one, I think this is probably more in line with the way Duke thinks of it anyway (defense gets you on the floor). But it will also maybe help people start to think more broadly about the vast array of offensive roles that these positions can have.

Excellent points. I'd include the #2 position as well. Offensively, someone has to be running the point, but after that, things can get pretty fluid offensively. The 2-3 distinction is often blurred as much as the 3-4. And by not thinking in rigid categories, with good motion offense, defenses can get confused. I think Duke has shown that to be true often.

[gumbomoop]

Excellent points. I'd include the #2 position as well. Offensively, someone has to be running the point, but after that, things can get pretty fluid offensively. The 2-3 distinction is often blurred as much as the 3-4. And by not thinking in rigid categories, with good motion offense, defenses can get confused. I think Duke has shown that to be true often.

Good points here, and from CDu and others in this thread.

It has seemed to me that, even ignoring the "K doesn't use numbers" mantra, the players normally designated 2 & 3 in our - and actually many - system(s) should simply be called "wings." Said wings are interchangeable on O.

Similarly - or nearly so - the players normally designated 3 & 4 [SF and PF]: in K's O, these 2 are semi-interchangeable as "outside-in" and "inside-out" guys.

And then on D, well, almost everybody is liable to be guarding almost anyone on the other team, at least for a few seconds, because of the constant switching. In the instances where this produces a bad mismatch, if our guys get burned, I think K tends pretty quickly to "waste" a TO to correct the problem.