PDA

View Full Version : Player Roster Outlook for the next few years and what it means for more championships



proelitedota
04-08-2010, 05:37 PM
If you look at all of the Duke's championship teams, it usually was led by a core of at least 4-5 guys, separated at most by 1 year, who played together for years, and is the most senior bunch of the team.

In the 90s it was Christian Laettner, Bobby Hurly, Grant Hill, Thomas Hill, Brian Davis.

In 2001 it was Jason Williams, Shane Battier, Mike Dunleavy, Nate James, and Carlos Boozer.

In 2010 it was our amazing seniors and juniors.

With the consideration that Kyle Singler leaves, this is the makeup of our team for the next few years.

Class of 2011:
Nolan Smith

Class of 2012:
Miles Plumlee,

Class of 2013:
Ryan Kelly, Mason Plumlee, Andre Dawkins, Seth Curry, Carrick Felix

Class of 2014:
Kyrie Irving, Joshua Hairston, Tyler Thornton,

Class of 2015:
Michael Gbinije, Austin Rivers???, Quincy Miller???, Marshall Plumlee/Tyler Adams???

As you can see, the next group of kids that fits the bill would be from the class of 2013 and 2014. I can't see us repeating next year because we won't have the necessary combination of numbers and experience from a team who's core is going to be Nolan Smith, Miles Plumlee, and some unproven sophomores and freshmen. In 2011-2012 season, we will be far more poised to make a run with a team lead by juniors Ryan, Mason, Dawkins, and Seth and sophomore Kyrie Irving. In 2012-2013 season, our senior and junior class is going to be absolutely dominant and extremely, extremely balanced. Even with Mason, and Kyrie possibly leaving early, we would still have 6 players in that extremely balanced core group.

We have a modest chance to capture another championship in 2011, a high chance to repeat from 2012 to 2013, and possibly three-peat if our roster stays intact and our class of 2015 is top 5 in the nation.

Zeb
04-08-2010, 05:52 PM
led by a core of at least 4-5 guys, separated at most by 1 year


Both groups you mention are separated by two years... Laettner/Davis were two years ahead of Grant Hill. Battier was two years ahead of Williams/Dunleavy/Boozer. James was a redshirt senior, so he was initially three classes ahead of that group. And Duhon was a freshman on that team and started throughout their run through the tournament, so 2001 really had contributions spanning 4 classes.

Your point is basically that on good teams you tend to have a cluster of good players within three classes of each other. I don't think many people would disagree with you on that. And I get that we potentially have such a cluster in our future with the incoming freshman class and returning sophomores.

CDu
04-08-2010, 06:07 PM
Both groups you mention are separated by two years... Laettner/Davis were two years ahead of Grant Hill. Battier was two years ahead of Williams/Dunleavy/Boozer. James was a redshirt senior, so he was initially three classes ahead of that group.

Your point is basically that on good teams you tend to have a cluster of good players within three classes of each other. I don't think many people would disagree with you on that.

Yeah, I think the bigger key is that you have a bunch of talent and you return most/all of your starters from the previous year. In 2001, even though 3 of the starters were only sophomores, they had all played major roles as freshmen. We returned 4 starters from the 2000 team (losing only Carrawell, but replacing him with Dunleavy) and added a very good freshman who eventually won a starting job late in the season. The 1991 and 1992 teams returned 3-4 starters and a bunch of regulars. This year's team returned 4 starters and 5 regulars. That's where next year's team takes a hit if Singler leaves - they return 1 starter and 2 bench players, and will need to replace over half of the team's minutes.

hc5duke
04-08-2010, 06:12 PM
We have a modest chance to capture another championship in 2011, a high chance to repeat from 2012 to 2013, and possibly three-peat if our roster stays intact and our class of 2015 is top 5 in the nation.

I would argue that NO ONE has a high chance to repeat... I mean in any given year, and especially looking 2-3 years into the futrure

MChambers
04-08-2010, 06:28 PM
Back to back is ridiculously difficult.

In terms of comparisons, I think the 1991 team had only 2 returning starters, a junior and a sophomore (Laettner and Hurley). And the returning players from the bench had decent, but not overwhelming experience.

Saratoga2
04-11-2010, 12:22 PM
It is truly difficult to be project one year ahead, let alone out four or so, but we might be able to learn what coach K is trying to do from his recruits going forward.

What we see for the 2010/2011 season is that the coaches have recruited two guards, both PGs in Irving and Thornton. Both are fairly short and these will go along with Curry who also is short and may play either PG or SG. These recruits will fill in a real shortage of guard talent going forward. With Nolan definately leaving in one year and with Irving having that possibility, the team has really got a solid presence at the PG & SG going forward.

With Dawkins also in the mix, we will have a player who is also capable of SG or may take play SF for several years to come. Dawkins might be the successor should Singler leave this year, or may have to get another year of lesser PT should Singler stay.

Then there is Carrick coming in who is purportedly a superior athlete and defender and at 6'6" capable of playing SF or even PF in a pinch. Just one more year away is Michael Gbiniji who appears to have SG/SF capability as well.

With the Plumlees probably starting next year, the question miight be whether Mason will blossom so much that he is a lottery pick next April. If so, we will likely have Miles one more year, along with Josh Hairston and Ryan Kelly to shore up the back line.

My guess would be that coach K would like to recruit a front line player and a shooting guard to go with Gbiniji in the class entering for 2011/2012. Clearly Austin Rivers would be a terrific SG with a wonderful handle.

The verdict is out on whether the front line player might be Michael Adams, Marshall Plumley or Quincy Miller. By my count, it would be conceivable to add two of those players with no existing scholarship players leaving early.

It appears the trend is for coach K to fill the roster fully with people who can play effectively at the NCAA level. This includes super first line talent with backup people at every position. With the level of talent, the teams the next couple of years could clearly be in the running for championship seasons.

Possible rosters including offers

Roster: (Yrs) Starting season
Mason Plumlee (+3) ?
Miles Plumlee (+2)
Ryan Kelly (+3)
Josh Hairston (+4)
Kyle Singler (+1) ?
Nolan Smith (+1)
Kyrie Irving (+4) ?
Seth Curry (+3) ?
Andre Dawkins (+3)
Carrick Felix (+3)
Michael Gbiniji (+4) 2012/2013
Tyler Thornton (+4)
Austin Rivers (+4) ? 2012/2013
Quincy Miller (+4) ? 2012/2013
Marshall Plumlee (+4) ? 2012/2013
Tyler Adams (+4) ? 2012/2013