PDA

View Full Version : Coach K shatters the window



Hoosier-Devil
04-07-2010, 12:22 PM
With his championship tonight, Coach K has now won titles 19 years apart.

Compare that to other great Coaches:

Wooden won his first in 64, his last in 75, that's 11 years apart.

Knight won his first in 76, his last in 87, 11 years apart.

Dean Smith won his first in 82, his last in 93, 11 years apart.

Adolph Rupp won his first in 48, his last in 58, 10 years apart.

You have to go back to Branch McCraken at Indiana as the only coach to win championships more than 11 year apart, he won in 40 and 53, 13 years apart.

This just goes to show how hard it is to stay on top of the college basketball world. Even the greatest coaches, can only manage to stay on top and maintain their peak for about 10 to 11 years

K has dominated the field for almost twice as long as all the other great coaches in history, and he is not done yet.


Spam Filter's post hasn't gotten nearly as much attention as it should have.

In Division I men’s basketball, coaches have a 12-year window of opportunity to win their NCAA championships. Although coaches can sustain excellence for a long time, the period of peak performance for each coach has been a dozen years. We can speculate about why there is a 12-year window—e.g., that’s when the coach gets his best recruits, or is at his tactical best, or is when he is most motivated, and so on—but nonetheless, they have all had a window.

Look at the winners of multiple NCAA championships:

1964–1975 John Wooden (10 championships)
1948–1958 Adolph Rupp (4 championships)
1991–2010 Mike Krzyzewski (4 championships)
1976–1987 Bob Knight (3 championships)
1940–1953 Branch McCracken (2 championships)
1945–1946 Henry Iba (2 championships)
1955–1956 Phil Woolpert (2 championships)
1961–1962 Ed Jucker (2 championships)
1980–1986 Denny Crum (2 championships)
1982–1993 Dean Smith (2 championships)
1999–2004 Jim Calhoun (2 championships)
2005–2009 Roy Williams (2 championships)
2006–2007 Billy Donovan (2 championships)

There have been only two exceptions to the window. One exception is Branch McCracken, who won his two NCAA championships at Indiana in 1940 and 1953. But his 1940 championship came when the NCAA tournament was two years old (started 1939), and at a time when the NIT was at least a comparable (started 1938), and possibly better, post-season tournament. Some consider the NIT at least as prestigious as the NCAA tournament through the 1950s.

The other exception, of course, is Coach K. He has won four NCAA championships, between 1991 and 2010. He hasn’t simply slipped through the window; he has shattered the 12-year window. :D

How has Coach K sustained or extended his period of peak performance? How likely is it that he will continue to sustain or extend this peak performance? Feel free to discuss...

Winning outside the 12-year window is incredibly difficult, as Dean Smith demonstrated. He went to 11 Final Fours between 1967 and 1997, but won his two championships in 1982 and 1993. Adolph Rupp went to 6 Final Fours between 1942 and 1966, but won his four championships in 1948, 1949, 1951, and 1958. Bob Knight went to 5 Final Fours between 1972 and 1992, but won his three championships in 1976, 1981, and 1987.

Are any current coaches likely to break the window? Roy Williams has a powerhouse program, and he is an excellent recruiter. This past year, of course, is a decidedly cautionary tale :p, and he may be close to retiring at the end of his window. Tom Izzo has gone to 6 Final Fours between 1999 and 2010, but won only once, in 2000. Is his window closing? Billy Donovan hasn’t had great success since 2007, but still has an open window. In 1995 or so, you might not have predicted that Coach K would win another title.

Jim Boeheim has some chance to break the window, but with only three Final Fours between 1987 and 2003 and no great NCAA success since 2003, I wouldn’t bet on him. Similarly, I wouldn’t bet on Jim Calhoun, who is 67 with health problems, and facing possible NCAA sanctions. Gary Williams, Rick Pitino, and Tubby Smith seem unlikely to recapture their earlier success.

Bill Self won a championship in 2008, but he hasn’t been to the Final Four before or since. However, like Roy Williams, he has a powerhouse program and is an excellent recruiter.

For Coach K, winning four NCAA championships is a great accomplishment; he's one of only three men to have won at least that many. But winning four NCAA championships over a 20-year period is stunning and unique. It is an unmatched period of peak performance. As Spam Filter wrote, “K has dominated the field for almost twice as long as all the other great coaches in history, and he is not done yet.”

superdave
04-07-2010, 12:34 PM
I suspect Coach K is not yet done winning titles. I'm optimistic about the next two years specifically and the next 5 years if he continues to bring in this level of talent.

MarkD83
04-07-2010, 12:38 PM
However...be careful with this "12 year span" discussion.

In 1991 when Duke beat Kansas, the Kansas coach was Roy Williams, so if that one game had gone a different way both Roy and Coach K would have exceeded the "12-year span".

I think the better arguement is that Coach K has 4 championships with 3 totally different teams (1991 and 92 were for all intents and purposes the same team).

More importantly Coach K has won these championships in 3 different college basketball eras.

1991-92 No one goes pro early and Duke is not at the top of any prime recruits lists.

2001 Unexpected early departures to the NBA but Duke is a household name with recruits

2010 Expected departures to the NBA but often times by players who are not quite ready for the NBA (being a guaranteed late first round early second round pick does not mean a player is ready for the NBA. Heck, Thebeet (sp?) from UCONN was a lottery pick who was sent to the D-league).

In the later two eras roster-stability and management have been a nightmare for all coaches (ask Roy Williams).


One final thought, no one will ever supplant John Wooden at the top of the coaching list because 10 championships in 12 years is amazing in any era. That being said every top recruit wanted to go to UCLA and they all played for 3 years so roster-stability was easier to manage.

roywhite
04-07-2010, 12:43 PM
4 titles, and Duke went into the final minute of championship games in 1986, 1994, and 1999. I think the Karma gods took that into account when that half-court shot went up at the buzzer Monday night.

The extended period of excellence is just another measure of the greatness of Mike Krzyzewski.

gumbomoop
04-07-2010, 12:53 PM
Spam Filter's post hasn't gotten nearly as much attention as it should have.

In Division I men’s basketball, coaches have a 12-year window of opportunity to win their NCAA championships. Although coaches can sustain excellence for a long time, the period of peak performance for each coach has been a dozen years. We can speculate about why there is a 12-year window—e.g., that’s when the coach gets his best recruits, or is at his tactical best, or is when he is most motivated, and so on—but nonetheless, they have all had a window.

Look at the winners of multiple NCAA championships:

1964–1975 John Wooden (10 championships)
1948–1958 Adolph Rupp (4 championships)
1991–2010 Mike Krzyzewski (4 championships)
1976–1987 Bob Knight (3 championships)
1940–1953 Branch McCracken (2 championships)
1945–1946 Henry Iba (2 championships)
1955–1956 Phil Woolpert (2 championships)
1961–1962 Ed Jucker (2 championships)
1980–1986 Denny Crum (2 championships)
1982–1993 Dean Smith (2 championships)
1999–2004 Jim Calhoun (2 championships)
2005–2009 Roy Williams (2 championships)
2006–2007 Billy Donovan (2 championships)

There have been only two exceptions to the window. One exception is Branch McCracken, who won his two NCAA championships at Indiana in 1940 and 1953. But his 1940 championship came when the NCAA tournament was two years old (started 1939), and at a time when the NIT was at least a comparable (started 1938), and possibly better, post-season tournament. Some consider the NIT at least as prestigious as the NCAA tournament through the 1950s.

The other exception, of course, is Coach K. He has won four NCAA championships, between 1991 and 2010. He hasn’t simply slipped through the window; he has shattered the 12-year window. :D

How has Coach K sustained or extended his period of peak performance? How likely is it that he will continue to sustain or extend this peak performance? Feel free to discuss...

Winning outside the 12-year window is incredibly difficult, as Dean Smith demonstrated. He went to 11 Final Fours between 1967 and 1997, but won his two championships in 1982 and 1993. Adolph Rupp went to 6 Final Fours between 1942 and 1966, but won his four championships in 1948, 1949, 1951, and 1958. Bob Knight went to 5 Final Fours between 1972 and 1992, but won his three championships in 1976, 1981, and 1987.

Are any current coaches likely to break the window? Roy Williams has a powerhouse program, and he is an excellent recruiter. This past year, of course, is a decidedly cautionary tale :p, and he may be close to retiring at the end of his window. Tom Izzo has gone to 6 Final Fours between 1999 and 2010, but won only once, in 2000. Is his window closing? Billy Donovan hasn’t had great success since 2007, but still has an open window. In 1995 or so, you might not have predicted that Coach K would win another title.

Jim Boeheim has some chance to break the window, but with only three Final Fours between 1987 and 2003 and no great NCAA success since 2003, I wouldn’t bet on him. Similarly, I wouldn’t bet on Jim Calhoun, who is 67 with health problems, and facing possible NCAA sanctions. Gary Williams, Rick Pitino, and Tubby Smith seem unlikely to recapture their earlier success.

Bill Self won a championship in 2008, but he hasn’t been to the Final Four before or since. However, like Roy Williams, he has a powerhouse program and is an excellent recruiter.

For Coach K, winning four NCAA championships is a great accomplishment; he's one of only three men to have won at least that many. But winning four NCAA championships over a 20-year period is stunning and unique. It is an unmatched period of peak performance. As Spam Filter wrote, “K has dominated the field for almost twice as long as all the other great coaches in history, and he is not done yet.”

Superb analysis by Hoosier-Devil, expanding on Spam Filter's original insight. Kudos to both.

On H-D's question, can K sustain/extend NC winning, I'd guess he's got 5-7 years to add another, maybe even 2 more! It seems obvious that K has in fact been invigorated by the Olympic gig, so while one could still argue that it will mess up Duke, it didn't in '09-'10. That gig apparently didn't mess up recruiting, either, probably helped with a few kids.

Seemingly out of nowhere, the K who had "lost the edge to Roy" rose up with one of his greatest team-moldings to win a NC, while Roy....... The 2 programs will fight for ACC and national supremacy next few years; it's plausible both will claim NCs in next 5 years.

Right now K is the only coach even considered to challenge Wooden as greatest ever. Another NC, and definitely 2, will put K at top, as the comparative analysis will take into account K's "window-busting longevity." Not to mention that his last 2-3 [why not: 2011, 2012, 2013 - Ha!] may come in a 96-team field.

A request to Spam Filter and Hoosier-Devil: why not get this info out there, beyond the confines of DBR? I don't know, send it to KenPom, or Bilas, or Duke PR folks.

Indoor66
04-07-2010, 02:04 PM
However...be careful with this "12 year span" discussion.

In 1991 when Duke beat Kansas, the Kansas coach was Roy Williams, so if that one game had gone a different way both Roy and Coach K would have exceeded the "12-year span".

I think the better arguement is that Coach K has 4 championships with 3 totally different teams (1991 and 92 were for all intents and purposes the same team).

More importantly Coach K has won these championships in 3 different college basketball eras.

1991-92 No one goes pro early and Duke is not at the top of any prime recruits lists.

2001 Unexpected early departures to the NBA but Duke is a household name with recruits

2010 Expected departures to the NBA but often times by players who are not quite ready for the NBA (being a guaranteed late first round early second round pick does not mean a player is ready for the NBA. Heck, Thebeet (sp?) from UCONN was a lottery pick who was sent to the D-league).

In the later two eras roster-stability and management have been a nightmare for all coaches (ask Roy Williams).


One final thought, no one will ever supplant John Wooden at the top of the coaching list because 10 championships in 12 years is amazing in any era. That being said every top recruit wanted to go to UCLA and they all played for 3 years so roster-stability was easier to manage.

They actually played for four years with the first year on a Freshman team learning the system, practicing with the Sophs, Jrs & Srs and maturing. Some advantage in that system. Additionally, Wooden had the advantage of coaching when only one representative per conference into a 16 team tourney and into geographic divisions. The west rarely had more than one or two good teams. Wooden had a pretty simple route to the final four.

The format then had East play West and SE play MW or East play MW and West play SE. No seeding, just geography. There were some real cakewalks for UCLA in those days.

Tha said, Wooden had an incredible run.

jimsumner
04-07-2010, 02:13 PM
"1991-92 No one goes pro early and Duke is not at the top of any prime recruits lists."

Lots of people went pro early around this time. Kenny Anderson, Chris Webber, J.R. Reid, Dennis Scott, Chris Jackson, Jalen Rose, Shaquille O'Neal, Jimmy Jackson, Jerrod Mustaf, Shawn Bradley, many others. Players didn't go pro early as often as today and didn't often go after one season but top players frequently left with eligibility on the table. A difference of degree not kind.

Duke was fortunate to dodge that bullet as long as they did.

And Duke was at the top of lots of recruits' list. Danny Ferry was the consensus number one prospect in his class. Christian Laettner, Bobby Hurley, Grant Hill and Cherokee Parks absolutely were prime recruits and guys like Phil Henderson, Alaa Abdelnaby and Billy McCaffrey were darn close.

Beginning with the high school class of 1982, Duke had at least one prep All-American every class during this period. And since. The 1991 title team had seven prep All-Americans. K wasn't finding these guys on the discard pile.

hurleyfor3
04-07-2010, 02:44 PM
This is interesting and revealing, but to measure overall coaching prominence I'd want to look at the spread between Final Fours, not just national championships.

These are mostly OTTOMH and probably ignore a few coaches with long spreads:

36 years: Ray Meyer 43-79
30 years: Dean 67-97
26 years: Eddie Sutton 78-04
24 years: K 86-10
21 years: Lute Olson 80-01
19 years: Lou Henson 70-89
18 years: Rupp 48-66 (had a couple NIT titles before that)
18 years: Pitino 87-05
18 years: Huggins 92-10
18 years: Roy 91-09
17 years: Knight 75-92
16 years: Guy Lewis 68-84
16 years: Boeheim 87-03
14 years: Tarkanian 77-91
14 years: Denny Crum 72-86
13 years: McCracken 40-53
13 years: Wooden 62-75
12 years: Calipari 96-08
11 years: Izzo 99-10
10 years: Calhoun 99-09

I don't think Eddie Sutton was a better coach than K is or anything, but this list does say something about guys who were effective across multiple eras such as like Lewis and Huggy. That plateau at 18 years is interesting too, although one of the three current coaches there will likely break it.

And crap, I just made Dean look really good.

Hoosier-Devil
04-07-2010, 03:25 PM
A request to Spam Filter and Hoosier-Devil: why not get this info out there, beyond the confines of DBR? I don't know, send it to KenPom, or Bilas, or Duke PR folks.


Do you mean they aren't already closely monitoring these message boards for our collective knowledge and wisdom?

Starter
04-07-2010, 03:55 PM
Not sure where to put this, but Krzyzewski's scheduled to be on with noted New York radio windbag Mike Francesa at 4:30. Here's a link:

http://player.play.it/player/player.html?v=5.0.18&id=62&onestat=wfan

dukeimac
04-07-2010, 04:17 PM
Coach has done it his way!

He is not out steeling recruits from anyone; like making them dinner at center court.

He fits a team together; does not have to have the top talent in the country like Wall.

He takes what he gets and makes it better; Zo and Lance are great examples of this.

And he doesn't pander to cry baby fans who complain about how the players he has are over worked!

WiJoe
04-07-2010, 09:16 PM
He is not out steeling recruits from anyone; like making them dinner at center court.

Could you expand on the "making them dinner at center court" part?

Name the coach?

Welcome2DaSlopes
04-07-2010, 09:16 PM
Could you expand on the "making them dinner at center court" part?

Name the coach?

Most likely talking about Cal or Ol' Roy, most likely Cal

MarkD83
04-07-2010, 10:12 PM
"1991-92 No one goes pro early and Duke is not at the top of any prime recruits lists."

Lots of people went pro early around this time. Kenny Anderson, Chris Webber, J.R. Reid, Dennis Scott, Chris Jackson, Jalen Rose, Shaquille O'Neal, Jimmy Jackson, Jerrod Mustaf, Shawn Bradley, many others. Players didn't go pro early as often as today and didn't often go after one season but top players frequently left with eligibility on the table. A difference of degree not kind.

Duke was fortunate to dodge that bullet as long as they did.

And Duke was at the top of lots of recruits' list. Danny Ferry was the consensus number one prospect in his class. Christian Laettner, Bobby Hurley, Grant Hill and Cherokee Parks absolutely were prime recruits and guys like Phil Henderson, Alaa Abdelnaby and Billy McCaffrey were darn close.

Beginning with the high school class of 1982, Duke had at least one prep All-American every class during this period. And since. The 1991 title team had seven prep All-Americans. K wasn't finding these guys on the discard pile.

What I meant by the statement is that leading up to 1991-92 Duke did not have players going early. I realize that there were players going early but nothing like what is happening now.

The same thing with recruits. Coach K was still building Duke's reputation in 1991-92. Yes there was the Bubas years but in the early 90s everyone might have listed UNC as a place they wanted to play ball, but that was not the case for Duke. Coach K did get the AAs but he had to work to get them to recognize that Duke was a place they could go.

(Perhaps I should adjust my timing of this. In the late 1980s Coach K was still building Duke's reputation. Now he can say look at all of the players who played for me who's numbers are in the rafters, who have gone to Final Fours etc. In that early time frame he could point to only a few player or team highlights. Keep in mind an 11-17 and a 10-17 season (my last 2 years at Duke) are not what you use to attract recruits.)