MBB: Duke vs. Butler for the NCAA Championship

[Welcome2DaSlopes]

Discuss here

[ice-9]

Is anyone worried as I am that Duke will actually be favored in this title game?

I kinda liked that most of the "experts" were picking Baylor and WVU to beat us.

Butler is going to be a tough, tough game. They're like Purdue but with a better offense.

[Welcome2DaSlopes]

Honestly idc how we win, but I can tell you I've never wanted a game so badly.

[dukebluelemur]

I'm worried, but mostly just because losses are always possible if the other team just goes nuts (see NC State game), and it would be such a letdown after achieving so much. But I'm not concerned that duke won't show up.

Every game since Cal we've been hearing "well, sure we manhandled (last game), but we haven't seen a Defense like (next game)", yet we keep looking better and better.

For the first time since the Purdue game I have that "man, a loss would be embarrassing" feel that comes with being the consensus favorite.

Lets bring it home guys!

[brevity]

What was all that talk a few months ago about how we needn't worry about our regular season road record, because the NCAA Tournament takes place on neutral sites? While I thought that discussion was more or less irrelevant, I doubt any of us saw this possibility coming.

Playing Baylor in Houston, and now Butler in Indianapolis, should make up for any remaining arguments that Duke's path has been underwhelming.

It's the first championship matchup between private schools in 25 years, but let's hope the Villanova-Georgetown comparison ends there. If such things interest you, the road team is a 6.5 point favorite.

This is going to be good.

[noyac]

The way I look at it is no matter what our offense does or doesn't do our defense keeps us in games. People and "experts" focus so much on what teams other than Duke have they forget to realize that Duke's defense is amazing and if we don't have our best offensive game it is ok because our D will keep us in it.

[hedevil]

I can't describe how amazed I am knowing that there is a good chance that Kyrie, Curry, etc.. could be coming in trying to repeat rather than win a NC for the first time since 2001.

I hope that the starters and Plumlees can create some separation in the championship game so that coach K can clear the bench in the waning minutes. I'd like to see everyone get in the game for a moment if nothing else.

[Spam Filter]

We were favored in every game we played this tournament. No, not by the "analysts", but by people who put their money where their mouths are.

Vegas had us favored in every game, we were a 3 pt favorite over WV and for this game Duke has opened as a 6.5 pt favorite.

[Welcome2DaSlopes]

Hey guys I can't help but think that the Ncaa gave us this, we got the easiest bracket ever!!!!, we didn't even have to work hard for this, Wait Right?

[LSanders]

Think WV, Baylor, Purdue, and Cal agree they are part of the easiest path to the NC in the last 25 years?

Better yet ... How would St. Johns of the near future fair against such a line-up of tourney opponents? Sadly, I feel we'll NEVER know!!!

:p:p:p

[camion]

The main worry I have about the Butler game is the West Virginia game that we just played. I don't see any way we can play as well, shoot as well as we did in that game. I expect some let down. That being said, I think that the Purdue, Baylor and West Virginia games are good preparation for us to play Butler. If we play with the same intensity we played those three we have a great chance.

I expect a tough gritty, grabby game.

[LSanders]

The main worry I have about the Butler game is the West Virginia game that we just played. I don't see any way we can play as well, shoot as well as we did in that game. I expect some let down. That being said, I think that the Purdue, Baylor and West Virginia games are good preparation for us to play Butler. If we play with the same intensity we played those three we have a great chance.

I expect a tough gritty, grabby game.

A little like '91 following the UNLV win, and we had to face Kansas. But, this team ... They'll be okay. I have 100% confidence they'll show up Monday. They may not stroke 13 3s, but they won't have to. Butler's a terrific, talented, disciplined, formidable team, but OUR team ... They're special.

Duke's a match-up nightmare, first of all. Who's gonna guard Z? Hayward (6'9" 207)? Howard (6'8" 230)? Don't they have to put Hayward on Kyle? If so, who covers LT and the Plums? Butler basically only goes 7 deep, and all but Hayward and Howard are 6'3" or under.

And, Mack's a terrific PG, but has he faced on-ball D like Nolan will apply? Jon's 6'5" and crafty as hell. Who's gonna stop him?

Obviously, Butler's faced and successfully dealt with mismatches from Syracuse and MSU, but I honestly feel like they haven't faced anything like the Duke D.

I think we'll come out calm, prepared, and confident on Monday - not cocky and overconfident - a healthy focus. This team will find a way to win.

[Welcome2DaSlopes]

A little like '91 following the UNLV win, and we had to face Kansas. But, this team ... They'll be okay. I have 100% confidence they'll show up Monday. They may not stroke 13 3s, but they won't have to. Butler's a terrific, talented, disciplined, formidable team, but OUR team ... They're special.

Duke's a match-up nightmare, first of all. Who's gonna guard Z? Hayward (6'9" 207)? Howard (6'8" 230)? Don't they have to put Hayward on Kyle? If so, who covers LT and the Plums? Butler basically only goes 7 deep, and all but Hayward and Howard are 6'3" or under.

And, Mack's a terrific PG, but has he faced on-ball D like Nolan will apply? Jon's 6'5" and crafty as hell. Who's gonna stop him?

Obviously, Butler's faced and successfully dealt with mismatches from Syracuse and MSU, but I honestly feel like they haven't faced anything like the Duke D.

I think we'll come out calm, prepared, and confident on Monday - not cocky and overconfident - a healthy focus. This team will find a way to win.

This post gives me so much confidence for our team on monday.

[-bdbd]

I'm worried, but mostly just because losses are always possible if the other team just goes nuts (see NC State game), and it would be such a letdown after achieving so much. But I'm not concerned that duke won't show up.

Every game since Cal we've been hearing "well, sure we manhandled (last game), but we haven't seen a Defense like (next game)", yet we keep looking better and better.


I am sensing some solid confidence on our side. I am telling you that we had better take Butler seriously!! They EARNED their way here, they play terrific defense, can assert a physical game, will have 50,000+ rooting for them rabidly (particularly given our so-so track record in hostile facillities...), and will have the whole underdog theme motivating the (and refs?). What if all our shots aren't falling like Satrurday in that dome, what if we're getting into foul trouble.... Yes, we'll likely be favorites in Vegas - but that can be as much name recognition as anything. This game is no gimme!

I do NOT want to be known as PHI-SLAMMA-JAMMA-II (with Butler reprising the NCSU role)...

Stay focused Duke...just one more to go!!!:rolleyes:

[mgtr]

Remember that Singler is iron (or maybe even steel) and some of that has rubbed off on the other players. We are battle-hardened! Butler may not have lost a game this calendar year, but they haven't played us!!!!

[soccerstud2210]

confidence is good.

over-confidence is not so much.


butler is legit. they didn't get here by a fluke.

yes, the cuse was injured. but they legitimately beat KSU

yes MSU was injured too, but they just grind and play tough defense and win.

we are the favorite to win this game, but it is definitely not going to be easy and a cake walk.

we better beware the bulldog

[ice-9]

Don't forget that Butler has dealt with two very, very good perimeter teams: Kansas State and Syracuse.

It WILL be a defensive dogfight. We cannot afford to underestimate them.

[proelitedota]

How are the injuries on Howard and Mack looking?

I don't know why, I am getting the jitters again thinking about the Butler game.

[Welcome2DaSlopes]

How are the injuries on Howard and Mack looking?

I don't know why, I am getting the jitters again thinking about the Butler game.

Seems like they will be ok, I haven't heard anything different.

[LSanders]

I agree that we overlook Butler at our peril. But, I don't believe that making such an error is in the genes of this team. They take it too seriously ... They fight too hard ... They love to be in the gym ... And, they love to play TOGETHER.

Like my post above, we'll be a match-up nightmare for them. More importantly, they have NOT played a team with as much heart and grit as Duke. In that regard, they'll be playing a mirror image of themselves ... But, with more size, depth, and at least as much skill.

And, though I genuinely admire Stephens, he ain't no K - at least, not yet.

Personally, I am not overlooking Butler at all. However, I am calmly confident about our chances. This Duke team inspires confidence.

To paraphrase a line from the movie, "Armageddon," ... After the journey this team has undertaken, it no longer knows how to lose.

[arydolphin]

Eamonn Brennan makes some good points about the matchup in his preview article:
http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/10115/duke-butler-first-look-at-the-final

One quick point: everyone is talking about the Singler vs. Hayward matchup, but looking at the Butler starting lineup from tonight's game, they start 3 guys that are 6'3" or shorter. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Lance Thomas matched up on Hayward when Duke is on defense, and Kyle would guard one of the shorter players on Butler.

Also, Butler's starting center Matt Howard was diagnosed with a "minor concussion" after the game. Depending on the severity of the concussion, he may not be able to play on Monday night, but we should know more on Sunday or early Monday. If he can't play or he's limited, that makes Butler even smaller on the front line, and I like our chances with Z and the Plumlees down low against a smaller front line.

[should_be_working]

shouldn't there be a smiley face on this thread?

[MarkD83]

They're like Purdue but with a better offense.

Why is every team Duke plays "like Purdue"? Why can't they be like UNC?

[BobbyFan]

The few comments I saw from TV analysts last night would suggest that we are a near lock to win on Monday night. That consensus is ridiculous and happens for 2 reasons:

1. Differences between remaining teams become too magnified in late March/April, because people forget about the 300 or so teams whose seasons have ended that the underdog was better than. If Duke were to play a top 10 team in a semi-road game in January, there would be plenty of people that would expect a Duke loss.

2. The Butler name. Had Maryland taken the same route with the same results to the finals, the predictions would be much less certain. And Butler is better than Maryland.

I feel confident in saying we are better than Butler. But I wouldn't be shocked if Butler won, just like we weren't when GT and Maryland beat us earlier in the year. That's the nature of a one and done tournament.

[davekay1971]

I'm sure that our team will come into this game with all the respect in the world for Butler. Let the talking heads blather on, suddenly changing the story line from "Duke is the weakest 1 seed and will be the first to lose" to "Duke is the overwhelming favorite and it will take a monumental upset for Butler to win." Coach K will make sure our guys don't for one second look at themselves as a favorite.

Butler plays absolutely stellar defense. So do we. We probably should have an advantage on the boards, but basically we're going to be looking in the mirror on Monday night.

[northernduke]

I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Lance Thomas matched up on Hayward when Duke is on defense, and Kyle would guard one of the shorter players on Butler.

Agree 100%. It will be LT on Heyward most of the game and possibly a combo of Singler and Mason when LT's on the bench (depending on how well Mason plays him). I hope we can work a couple quick fouls on Howard as he's been prone to early foul trouble all tourney. And don't let Nored fool you. He has incredible upper body strength for his size and is tough on the peremeter. But I like our matchups in this game. I see it close early as Butler is smart enough to control the tempo to their liking but I doike our chances.

And have I mentioned how much I love the character of this team?

[ice-9]

Why is every team Duke plays "like Purdue"? Why can't they be like UNC?

How I wish that could be the case! :)

But Butler plays a very physical, hands on you perimeter defense. Our Big 3 will have to be extra sharp to execute the offense.

One really interesting thing about Butler is how good they are at defensive rebounding -- they're 14th in the nation. To what degree will that offset our offensive rebounding prowess? Will we need a good shooting night to win?

Given Butler shot so poorly against Michigan State, will they regress to the mean and shoot lights out against us? Or will our length bother them?

I'm encouraged by our game against Purdue. We were knocked back a bit in the first half but regrouped in the second. That experience will teach our boys not to take Butler lightly and to expect the worst in terms of defensive physicality.

[Spy]

Howard apparently has a minor concussion, and Mack was dehydrated.

[jipops]

Take care of the ball, take care of the ball, take care of the ball, take care of the ball, take care of the ball, take care of the ball, take care of the ball, take care of the ball, take care of the ball, take care of the ball, take care of the ball, take care of the ball, take care of the ball, take care of the ball, take care of the ball, take care of the ball, take care of the ball, take care of the ball, take care of the ball, take care of the ball, take care of the ball, take care of the ball, take care of the ball, take care of the ball, take care of the ball, take care of the ball, take care of the ball, take care of the ball, take care of the ball, take care of the ball, take care of the ball, take care of the ball, take care of the ball, take care of the ball!!!!!

Don't turn it over. I guess I feel like this is kind of an important aspect of Monday night's game.

[bluedevil2012]

Pomeroy has us as 7 pt favorites with an 81% chance of winning.

[moonpie23]

this will be a match up on EVERY facet of the game...i am not confident of a win, but i am confident that the staff WILL have the team prepared and that the guys will show up and play hard for their shot at history..


it should be an amazing game...

go duke!!!!

[weezie]

Butler is going to be a tough, tough game.

Don't worry, some genius yapping head will prayerfully pick the bulldogs just because they're so doggone cute, scrappy and lovable.

Duke has switched into their 1991 mode: Terminator-style. Those are men on our team.

I'm ordering a Howard sandwich between two slices of Plumlee with Zoub sauce.

Sounds good?!

[Indoor66]

I don't think Butler can score enough points to win on Monday.

[fisheyes]

this will be a match up on EVERY facet of the game...i am not confident of a win, but i am confident that the staff WILL have the team prepared and that the guys will show up and play hard for their shot at history..


it should be an amazing game...

go duke!!!!

Moonpie...where's the smiley face on this thread?

[ReformedAggie]

I just have to chuckle at how we went from being "alarmingly unathletic" to Goliath.

[moonpie23]

Moonpie...where's the smiley face on this thread?

no smileys......got one more game...

[mgtr]

I don't think Butler can score enough points to win on Monday.

I think that this is the key point -- they are a great defensive team, but not a lot of scoring power.

[GoingFor#5]

We outsize them so we should have a good advantage on the glass. Butler plays smart, though, and I don't expect them to give up the 3 ball so easily so we need our bigs to rebound and go back up and score.

[weezie]

Does anyone know which is the team hotel?
Just in case there's anything "going on" in about 36 hours or so.
PM me if you don't mind please...:)

[Spam Filter]

The key to the game is our size. If you look at Butler's opponents so far in this tournament, they are all not very big.

In terms of effective height, MSU is 196th in the country, KSU is 136th, Syracuse is 64th, but probably less than that without their center, and Murray State is 270th, only 1st round opponent UTEP was decent at 28th.

Duke is 7th in the country in effective height, and averages 2 inches taller than even UTEP per position.

Butler has been very fortunate in their draw that they haven't had to beat a team with real size.

[KyDevilinIL]

I keep starting posts and deleting them, because there's just so much going on with this game that I can barely wrap my head around it, much less type something that makes sense.

So I'll just say this: This game is far, far, far from in the bag for Duke, and anyone who thinks otherwise is nuts. Butler is good, will have no fewer than 60,000 people in its corner, and our guys can't get ahead of themselves or lose sight of all the little things that brought them to this stage.

If we are in a position at any point to take the crowd out of this one, it's important that we do so. From my seat, I wasn't floored by the Butler turnout on Saturday, although it was certainly the largest of the four. But I expect a wall of Bulldog blue on Monday.

[phaedrus]

Does Butler even have 60,000 fans?

I mean, other than the fact that everyone in America is a Butler fan for the next 2 days.

[NashvilleDevil]

How come sagegrouse didn't start this thread?

[House G]

We were favored in every game we played this tournament. No, not by the "analysts", but by people who put their money where their mouths are.

Vegas had us favored in every game, we were a 3 pt favorite over WV and for this game Duke has opened as a 6.5 pt favorite.
Not only have we been favored in every game, I think we have covered the spread in every game--certainly against West Virginia, Baylor, Purdue, and Cal. A buddy of mine who bets only "dogs" has lost every time he bets against Duke. He refers to Duke as the "covering Caucasians"--his words, not mine.

[-bdbd]

Does Butler even have 60,000 fans?


Are you kidding?? Monday night they will have MILLIONS of fans rooting for them!

That's fine by me, as long as we win. Then nobody remembers who rooted for who. Just that we won.


Let's stay focused on the game. Play our Duke brand of D. Use our size on the boards. Make some good shots. But mostly, stay focused.

[Sgt. Dingleberry]

In the WVU post game thread I thought we had already won the National Championship....It's good to see more perspective in this thread...

Duke is capable of losing to anybody if we don't shoot well....We have a size advantage, but I don't expect to see Z and the Plumlees posting up Butler...Our size advantage will lead to second chance opportunities, that is the one of the advantages I see for us...

The other big advantage for us is our defense...I think it will be tough for them to score consistently...

Remember the Wisconsin game? The first half of the Purdue game? I could easily see this game becoming similar to those games...

If Butler shoots well and we shoot poorly we will probably lose...

This is going to be an intense grinder where the team that makes the most shots will probably win...

I might need more than a 6-pack for this one....LGD!!!!

[ndkjr70]

I loved Coach K's quote on Butler; "You don't beat Syracuse and Kansas State with a horse and carriage." and he's exactly right. A 25 game win streak and wins against very very good teams should have eliminated the word "cinderella" from any discussion about Butler, but ESPN loves a story about the Big Bad Dukies ruining a dream for the poor little cinderella.

[roywhite]

Duke will be a solid favorite for this game and should be. The Blue Devils are playing well and have more offensive weapons.

Still, in a single elimination format, upsets happen.

I'm confident because of:
the experience of our coach in these situations
the leadership of our seniors
the hunger that the Duke team has to finish the job

[Sgt. Dingleberry]

I loved Coach K's quote on Butler; "You don't beat Syracuse and Kansas State with a horse and carriage."

Great point...I think Syracuse was a little overrated, (if Wes Johnson had a nasty streak and took over games they could be dominant) but Kansas State was underrated and one of the top teams in this tourney IMO...

Look at the box score for that game...http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=300862306

If Butler shoots like that again and we shoot similarly to KSU we are in trouble...

[terrih]

CBS sports channel is broadcasating live press conference with Duke right now. 1:30PM Eastern.

[K.ERA]

I have been reading posts for five years, and finally can post...happy to join you all, have been a duke fan for 24 years as I live by every shot that is put up, anyways lets go DUKE!!! and we will win this game with Defense and determination, we get everyones best shot every game, ........Coach K will have us prepared......

[NashvilleDevil]

Great point...I think Syracuse was a little overrated, (if Wes Johnson had a nasty streak and took over games they could be dominant) but Kansas State was underrated and one of the top teams in this tourney IMO...

Look at the box score for that game...http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=300862306

If Butler shoots like that again and we shoot similarly to KSU we are in trouble...

Butler out rebounded K-State by 9 in that game. I would be very surprised if they are able to out rebound Duke by a similar margin. Also Duke has had plenty of games where they shot horrible from the field but their ability to hit the glass on the offensive end has offset some of those poor shooting nights.

[fisheyes]

How come sagegrouse didn't start this thread?

I need to see that smiley face....come on Sagegrouse! :D

[mgtr]

The first time I saw Butler play in the tournament I thought "glad they are not in our bracket!" They actually remind me of Duke -- disciplined, persistent, and they find a way to win.

[CDu]

Butler is somewhat similar to Purdue in that they're a very good defensive team (roughly as good defensively as Purdue overall), but only a decent offensive team. They'll want to keep the game in the 50s and hope to win a 55-50 type of game.

Defensively, what they do best is rebound. They are 14th in the country in limiting offensive rebounds. However, they haven't faced a team as good at pounding the offensive glass as us. So that will be an interesting matchup. They are just okay across the board defensively otherwise, with the exception of shotblocking where they are nonexistent.

Offensively, they aren't a great 3pt shooting team. They rely primarily on Hayward and Mack to create off the dribble, and on Howard to make crafty shots in the post. Both Hayward and Mack are very good off the dribble. Mack is also a terrific 3pt shooter. Hayward is not as great a 3pt shooter, but he certainly hits big shots. Veasley and Hahn are good from 3 as well. Howard is very crafty on the blocks and finds his way to points. And they shoot free throws pretty well as a team. And they do a great job of avoiding turnovers, which gives them a chance on every possession.

We match up really well with them, though. I will be surprised if they are able to compete with us on the boards, on either end of the floor. We may or may not have a great shooting night, but if we protect the ball and take decent shots, we should get some second-chance opportunities. Of course, I would have said the same thing about MSU (the 10th-best offensive rebounding team in the country), and they only got 6 offensive rebounds.

[NashvilleDevil]

Of course, I would have said the same thing about MSU (the 10th-best offensive rebounding team in the country), and they only got 6 offensive rebounds.

Has Butler faced anyone with Duke's size? Michigan St. is a great rebounding team on both ends but I don't think they had any 7'1, 6'8, 6'10 and 6'11 guys going after rebounds.

[CDu]

Has Butler faced anyone with Duke's size? Michigan St. is a great rebounding team on both ends but I don't think they had any 7'1, 6'8, 6'10 and 6'11 guys going after rebounds.

No, they have not. I'm pretty confident we'll win the rebounding battle - I just wanted to caveat that MSU should have done so as well. But we're substantially bigger than MSU (who rotates 6'8", 6'8" and 6'6" at their two frontcourt spots and then is 6'4" and under at the wings).

[ccrazies_708]

Don't know if this was already posted, but Butler may be without their lone post presence monday night:
http://www.comcast.net/articles/sports-cbk/20100404/NCAA.Championship-Butler-Howard/

[Spy]

I don't want to be over-confident, but every time I look at the matchups and go over their last performance, I can't see this being that close of a game, especially if Howard doesn't play.

Am I wrong?

[slower]

How come sagegrouse didn't start this thread?

Can the mods have Sage start a new thread and then merge this one into it? ;)


I'm halfway serious.

Please, folks, be wary of overconfidence. Eyes on the prize.

This game is the perfect storm for Duke haters, so let's not give them anything to be happy about. Game faces, people, game faces. Duke will NEVER be loved by the vast majority, so let's not try to get them to love us.
Scoreboard - that is the ONLY answer.

[Jderf]

With the two outstanding defences that will be on display tomorrow night, I can't help but wonder if the game might not turn into a defensive slugfest. If it does, I want to know how it stacks out with other similar title games from the past. Does anybody know what the lowest scoring championship game in the shot-clock era was?

[BD80]

Don't know if this was already posted, but Butler may be without their lone post presence monday night:
http://www.comcast.net/articles/sports-cbk/20100404/NCAA.Championship-Butler-Howard/

Oh the poor sports writers and "analysts" must be wracking their measley brains trying to spin this into Duke's fault. Coach K was watching the game and picked up the phone and ...

You know what is ironic? The only talking head that will got it "right" was Jay Bilas. He said it was a down year. No matter how "easy" the analysts will say Duke's road was, they will have to have won six games.

Frankly, I think Howard's headaches started when he watched Duke/WVU and thought about battling Zoubek.

[Spam Filter]

I am sure he will play.

Duhon had a minor concussion in 01 toward the end of the Maryland game, he played against Arizona on Monday night.

[Genedoc]

Several random thoughts.

1) There's entirely too much meta-discussion of what other people think. Who....effin....cares?

2) We as fans have every right to be confident heading into tomorrow. Yes, Butler is certainly capable of beating us. However, nearly every advantage lies with Duke. Scour the KenPom stats all you want, the vast majority of them favor Duke. We're a better defensive team. We're a better offensive team. We're bigger. We're deeper. Our coach has been here before. We're a better FT shooting team. The coaches and the players are the only ones who sincerely need to guard against over confidence, and I'm sure they are.

3) The game will be decided on the glass. We're not going to shoot 50+% again, and Butler is the best defensive rebounding team we've faced in a long time. IF they can effectively keep us off the offensive glass - and offensive rebounding is what's earned this Duke team a chance to play for the title - then they have a chance. If Butler cannot keep us off the glass, we're going to blow their doors off.

4) I think Butler is going to have a very, very hard time scoring. Their last 4 games they've scored 54, 63, 63, and 52 against defenses ranked 35, 18, 17, and 30 respectively. If they're scoring 58 per game vs. defenses ranked 17-35, Duke could conceivably hold them to 45-50 points. Don't think so? Duke's last 4, they've been giving up 59.5 ppg, which is impressive. It's stupid impressive when you consider they've played 3 of the top 11 offenses in college ball according to KenPom (Cal 4, Baylor 3, WVU 11). If we're keeping top 10 offenses at @ 59.5, it's completely reasonable to think Butler's #50 offense won't crack 50.

5) K's scheduling of very good mid major teams over the years is going to pay off. We know these types of teams, and we respect them.

So while Butler can certainly win the game, they're deservedly the underdog. Duke wins this game 7 of 9 times, with 4 of the 7 being relatively close and Duke blowing their doors off another 3. Here's to hoping tomorrow night isn't one of the remaining 2 where Butler scrapes by. I don't think it's going to be.

[mehmattski]

With the two outstanding defences that will be on display tomorrow night, I can't help but wonder if the game might not turn into a defensive slugfest. If it does, I want to know how it stacks out with other similar title games from the past. Does anybody know what the lowest scoring championship game in the shot-clock era was?

The lowest-scoring title game of the shot-clock era was 2002:

Maryland 64
Indiana 52

That is a pretty extreme game, though. The top five lowest scoring finals since 1950:

1983: NC State over Houston: 106 points
1957: North Carolina over Kansas: 107 points
1980: Indiana over North Carolina: 113 points
1981: Louisville over UCLA: 113 points
2002: Maryland over Indiana: 116 points

[basket1544]

I've had a mantra up on my board at work all year dedicated to Kyle and if I could go to Indianapolis, I'd make it a poster. Since I can't, I thought I'd share it with all of you:

Center, Post, Guard or Wing
I don't care as long as I get my Ring.

It applied to Kyle because he's played every position during his career. However, it seems like a good message that could be for any one of the Blue Devils this year. They don't seem to care what position Coach puts them at as long as the result is a win. If anyone is going and wants to make this a poster, please do!

[dukeimac]

This one will not be a low scoring game.

If Baylor and WV can't hold down Duke then Butler won't either. For Butler to win they will need to score to Duke's ability. The advantage these two teams had over Duke was their long arms. Baylor had it at every position and WV had it except for the post position. The point guard positions maybe not but at the 2, 3 and 4 positions they surely did. Baylor shut down Singler (0-10) and Scheyer (1-11) and Duke still scored 78 points.

Coach K knows Butler is worried about the big 3 and Zo. I think Coach K will look to pound it into Zo and get a few easy baskets and maybe a quick foul or 2 on Howard. This will open the outside wide open. Butler will need to send everyone to the boards which could leave open 3s and fast break points. This could be a game Zo puts up 20 points and 10 boards.

I think Butlers best chance is to score with Duke. If they spend too much energy on the defensive end they may not have enough on the offensive end.

This game might be a nightmare for the cinderella. I don't think they have played someone close to Duke's level. Surely, no one has been as smart as Coach K and Duke.

[should_be_working]

Can the mods have Sage start a new thread and then merge this one into it? ;)

Yeah seriously the lack of a smiley face is freaking me out. I become overly superstitious this time of year.

[watzone]

http://bluedevilnation.net/2010/04/chris-collins-talks-scheyer-butler-and-not-wanting-the-season-to-end/

Chris Collins previews Butler, talks Scheyer and opportunities

And here is Coach James and Chris Carrawell who talk the coming title game and their basketball camp which starts this summer

[watzone]

http://bluedevilnation.net/2010/04/dukes-nolan-smith-hot-from-the-field-in-ncaas/

Nolan Smith is hitting just under 50% from the three point stripe. He addressed the media just moments ago in Indy. This is not what you will see on WRAL and such.

One more game.

And here are the players and coach K -

http://bluedevilnation.net/2010/04/april-4th-duke-press-conference-from-indianapolis/

[LSanders]

I watched the three "Shining Moments" ...

http://http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showpost.php?p=391434&postcount=27

... To get psyched for Monday.

And, a thought hit me ... For those who remember the beginning of the '91 Kansas game and Grant's monster alley oop ... It set the tone. No matter how tired the guys were after UNLV, they were NOT letting this one slip through their fingers.

Since we stand a good chance of getting the tip on Monday, it might be interesting to start Z and Mason, with the idea that, if open, Mason gets the opening pass to do his thing!!!

Just, you know, as a way of explaining to Butler that they aren't in (or playing :cool:) Kansas anymore!!!

[KyDevilinIL]

I trust our guys to get this done. And if they don't, it won't be because Duke turned in a clunker. It'll be because Butler earned it.

That's what I believe. We will see extreme effort from Duke tomorrow, and I'm optimistic that's going to be enough to get this one.

Not sure what else to say at this point. I want to play this thing right now.

[watzone]

Kyle Singler is ready, confident and has been working toward this moment since he came to Duke-

http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=215520707925&ref=nf

[ivydevil]

This one will not be a low scoring game.

If Baylor and WV can't hold down Duke then Butler won't either. For Butler to win they will need to score to Duke's ability. The advantage these two teams had over Duke was their long arms. Baylor had it at every position and WV had it except for the post position. The point guard positions maybe not but at the 2, 3 and 4 positions they surely did. Baylor shut down Singler (0-10) and Scheyer (1-11) and Duke still scored 78 points.

Coach K knows Butler is worried about the big 3 and Zo. I think Coach K will look to pound it into Zo and get a few easy baskets and maybe a quick foul or 2 on Howard. This will open the outside wide open. Butler will need to send everyone to the boards which could leave open 3s and fast break points. This could be a game Zo puts up 20 points and 10 boards.

I think Butlers best chance is to score with Duke. If they spend too much energy on the defensive end they may not have enough on the offensive end.

This game might be a nightmare for the cinderella. I don't think they have played someone close to Duke's level. Surely, no one has been as smart as Coach K and Duke.

Agree with most of that, but I just want to point out that it was Cal that held Scheyer to 1-11. :) Not even Baylor could shut down 2/3 of the Big 3.

[ivydevil]

Why does this thread not have the green happy smiley icon beside it on the main thread page? All the others before did and that worked out. Someone please put a smiley on it! I'm not really superstitious but I do not want to mess with anything that's worked before!

[blueprofessor]

I am sure he will play.

Duhon had a minor concussion in 01 toward the end of the Maryland game, he played against Arizona on Monday night.

Link: http://msn.foxsports.com/cbk/story/butler-bulldogs-matt-howard-head-injury-040410

No excuses for prejudiced sportswriters.

Best regards.
Blueprofessor :)

[bjornolf]

I think Butler's best chance is to score with Duke. If they spend too much energy on the defensive end they may not have enough on the offensive end.

This game might be a nightmare for the cinderella. I don't think they have played someone close to Duke's level. Surely, no one has been as smart as Coach K and Duke.

All season, Butler has been susceptible to pretty bad offensive droughts. Nothing like what they had against MSU, but stretches of several minutes without a basket, sometimes more than once a game, aren't uncommon for them. Their defense keeps them in it, in that they don't let the other team score either during those stretches. If Duke can keep scoring during one of those stretches, the game will be over. Butler is a very good team. However, they smartly took advantage of the fact that neither MSU nor Syracuse was at full strength. Duke is at full strength. Barring a total collapse, Duke should win this game. Butler has NOTHING for Zoubek. They have a realistic shot to win this game, but it would be their first real UPSET of the tournament. If they pull it off, they'll DEFINITELY have earned it.

[coldriver10]

Why does this thread not have the green happy smiley icon beside it on the main thread page? All the others before did and that worked out. Someone please put a smiley on it! I'm not really superstitious but I do not want to mess with anything that's worked before!
Umm, yes please!...

[mph]

Digger just picked us to beat Butler. We're doomed! Doomed, I say! ;)

[SoCalDukeFan]

I am very proud of this team.

I am appreciative of Coach K and all he has done for Duke for so long.

I am excited that we are in the national championship game.

I am confident that Coach K will have the team prepared.

I am nervous because anything can happen. Pomeroy, Vegas odds makers , and the so called experts don't determine the National Champion, its on the court tomorrow night.

SoCal

[roywhite]

Digger just picked us to beat Butler. We're doomed! Doomed, I say! ;)

He'll forget and choose Butler tomorrow.

[roywhite]

All season, Butler has been susceptible to pretty bad offensive droughts. Nothing like what they had against MSU, but stretches of several minutes without a basket, sometimes more than once a game, aren't uncommon for them. Their defense keeps them in it, in that they don't let the other team score either during those stretches. If Duke can keep scoring during one of those stretches, the game will be over. Butler is a very good team. However, they smartly took advantage of the fact that neither MSU nor Syracuse was at full strength. Duke is at full strength. Barring a total collapse, Duke should win this game. Butler has NOTHING for Zoubek. They have a realistic shot to win this game, but it would be their first real UPSET of the tournament. If they pull it off, they'll DEFINITELY have earned it.

I agree with your general points, but wasn't Butler an underdog vs Syracuse and K-State?

[CDu]

I agree with your general points, but wasn't Butler an underdog vs Syracuse and K-State?

I think the previous poster's point was that Syracuse was not at full strength, which made assessing the matchup difficult. Thus he or she felt it wasn't really an upset. However, KSU was (I believe) at full strength, and was certainly favored in that game.

[jkidd31]

I think the previous poster's point was that Syracuse was not at full strength, which made assessing the matchup difficult. Thus he or she felt it wasn't really an upset. However, KSU was (I believe) at full strength, and was certainly favored in that game.

K State looked drained against Butler (hangover from the Xavier game) and have played two teams in MSU and Syracuse w/o a key player.

[Spam Filter]

KSU might have not have anyone injured.

But I don't think they were literally "at full strength", they played a double overtime game late into the night and their legs were not fresh at all against Butler.

Of course, they can say the same thing about us.

We played Cal with one of their bigs suspended, Purdue without Hummel, WV without Bryant and Butler injured for the last 9 minutes.

[throatybeard]

Among the many reasons I hope we win is that it would kill the stupid "Duke has never won a national title without first losing to UNC" meme. (Usually stated as if there's some sort of causation). I'd love to see that one go the way of the dodo.

[Troublemaker]

Can the mods have Sage start a new thread and then merge this one into it? ;)


Sure thing. There's no guarantee Sage will see this in time for tomorrow night but if he starts a thread with the smiley-face, I (or another mod) will merge this thread into it. I'm all about the karma as well.

[ice-9]

Butler out rebounded K-State by 9 in that game. I would be very surprised if they are able to out rebound Duke by a similar margin. Also Duke has had plenty of games where they shot horrible from the field but their ability to hit the glass on the offensive end has offset some of those poor shooting nights.

Maybe you shouldn't be, because Kansas State is 7th best in the nation at offensive rebounding. We're 6th.

But that's what Butler's defense and defensive rebounding do to teams.

So if we're not shooting well and not rebounding well, we can very well lose.

This is not a cakewalk folks...

Syracuse and Kansas State are elite teams and this Butler team beat them.

[DevilHorns]

This will be an interesting game in terms of officiating. If they let the bigs play a little leniently I think it really goes in our favor (as in WVU game). If Z, Miles, etc gets ticky-tack fouls then I think this could be a long tough night.

We should be favored. We should be confident. The thing is, I don't think this crew of Duke players have that personality to overlook the next opponent. K and the staff will of course remind them of the stakes though they don't really need the reminder. This Duke team has grown because of PAIN. The pain of defeat in the past years, of hearing all the press and opposing fans and opposing teams talk to trash and ridicule. They will be ready. We should be in for a treat tomorrow. LETS GO DUKE!

[banneheim]

Each hour that goes by, I am more worried about this Butler team playing out all and taking risks (since they have nothing to lose). I just don't want to be depressed for days (i.e. after the 1999 UCONN loss). Does anyone remember what the pt spread was for that?

[DukeDevilDeb]

Each hour that goes by, I am more worried about this Butler team playing out all and taking risks (since they have nothing to lose). I just don't want to be depressed for days (i.e. after the 1999 UCONN loss). Does anyone remember what the pt spread was for that?

The 1999 game was an entirely different story. It was frankly more like the 1991 semi-final game against UNLV. We walked into the Final Four knowing that we were going to win in 1999; UNLV did the same thing in 1991. And guess what? We didn't.

This team is not in danger of being egocentric nor are they measuring themselves for a National Championship hat and tee. Jon has said it the best: We can't stop to celebrate now; we'll do that at the end of the season. What we have to do is focus on the next game, the very next game... which, of course, is Butler.

I think we have a very good chance, and I love the fact that this wonderful group of guys have put themselves in this place (with a little help from K, Wojo, Collins, etc. :D). I think we'll see a game close to Saturday night's, but I agree that the way the refs call fouls will matter. If it is a game where touch fouls are called every time, we will struggle. But I still think we'll win!
:):):)

GO DEVILS!

[NYDukie]

Posted this as part of a comment I made but I'm soooo tired of the David verse Goliath thing. This Butler team was preseason ranked around #10 and Top 20 all year or most of it so I don't get this. To me, it's hypocritical of the media and disrespectful of them to Butler to portray them as this lil team that could that was in fact highly regarding to start the season and throughout the year by the same said media. I know it's convenient for the media to portray them as such, given it's in Indy with the "Hoosier" theme as background but I find it somewhat troubling that the media twist the facts in order to make a compelling story more to their liking.

[BDP]

Each hour that goes by, I am more worried about this Butler team playing out all and taking risks (since they have nothing to lose). I just don't want to be depressed for days (i.e. after the 1999 UCONN loss). Does anyone remember what the pt spread was for that?

Duke -10!

[-bdbd]

Each hour that goes by, I am more worried about this Butler team playing out all and taking risks (since they have nothing to lose). I just don't want to be depressed for days (i.e. after the 1999 UCONN loss). Does anyone remember what the pt spread was for that?

Duke -10!

I was at that game. And while I never chest-thump or otherwise foretell my own team's greatness, I do remember walking around St. Pete and being VERY confident. Then after the game, and a very close (last posession) loss, being just devastated. It didn't help that many of the UCONN fans were incredibly classless afterwards -- one sign carried around the stadium right after the game -- "Now Duke has TWO losers!" (referring to the womens' BB team having just lost in the WBB Final Four as well).

I really don't care to relive that feeling again. :(

[diveonthefloor]

Bottom line as I told my Duke-fan son on Friday:

Going in to the Final Four, Duke had not much more than 1 in 4 chance of becoming the Nat Champion. Odds are odds....

Now the odds have changed to not much better than a coin flip. Odds are odds.... The Nat Champ Game is not a 3 ,5, or 7 game series. It's a one game winner takes all. Odds are odds. I hope the coin lands with a Devil facing up!

[BobbyFan]

The 1999 game was an entirely different story. It was frankly more like the 1991 semi-final game against UNLV. We walked into the Final Four knowing that we were going to win in 1999; UNLV did the same thing in 1991. And guess what? We didn't.

Eh, it's easy to say they were overconfident in retrospect, but that is selling the winning teams short. Many of the arguments in this thread against us being too confident are centered on K, but he was the coach in 1999, wasn't he? That year UConn was the 2nd best team in the country and the gap between us was overstated. They came in with a great game plan and took us out; it's not an unexpected consequence of a one and done tournament.

[RelativeWays]

Duke manned up against WVU in a way I have not seen a Duke team do in late March/April since 2001. They played their game and left the Mountaineers reeling for most of the game. Even if De'Shaun Butler hadn't had that terrible injury, WVU was not going to win.

I was so impressed how the team operated last night. If they bring it like that, if they play that good, they will win. They cannot hesitate, Butler is good on D and quick with steals. If Duke struggles like they did in the ACC tourney, it will be a toss up and the momentum and emotion will certainly be on Butler's side. If Duke plays Butler like the did UNC and WVU, they are coming home to Durham as 2010 champs. I hope the team realizes this.

[Bo_Spice]

Does anyone know where I can watch the Duke intro video from yesterdays game?

[sagegrouse]

Better late than never -- I hope. I have been in Indianapolis and just turned on my computer.

Otherwise, I have been telling my Duke friends that this will be a very tough game against a Butler team that has already beaten a #1 and #2 plus a good Michigan State team.

Questions for Monday involve:

1. Duke's ability to shoot as well as on Saturday.

2. The intensity and effectiveness of Duke's defense against the Dawgs.

3. The ability to use our size to great advantage. Butler will go small -- which won't be much of a change. Duke must be able to deal with a smaller quicker team and still control the boards.

Hope I didn't let you guys down.

sagegrouse

[fisheyes]

Yeah! Sagegrouse!

I feel better now!

GO DUKE!

[DevilHorns]

Better late than never -- I hope. I have been in Indianapolis and just turned on my computer.

Otherwise, I have been telling my Duke friends that this will be a very tough game against a Butler team that has already beaten a #1 and #2 plus a good Michigan State team.

Questions for Monday involve:

1. Duke's ability to shoot as well as on Saturday.

2. The intensity and effectiveness of Duke's defense against the Dawgs.

3. The ability to use our size to great advantage. Butler will go small -- which won't be much of a change. Duke must be able to deal with a smaller quicker team and still control the boards.

Hope I didn't let you guys down.

sagegrouse

We knew you would come through in the clutch. YES!

[superdave]

I think both teams play D effectively. Neither runs the other team out of the gym, but both force tough shots. Duke is a better defensive rebounding team and is bigger, while Butler seems to play the passing lanes better.

Offensively, I'm not sure it's possible for us to shoot as well as we did Saturday night. However, anything in the ballpark means we stay two steps ahead of Butler on the scoreboard. I just dont think they have the firepower to score with us.

[Troublemaker]

We knew you would come through in the clutch. YES!

Thanks, Sage. I couldn't quite merge it in a way where you are the original poster (I still have some skills I need to learn). But, the important thing is that you started a thread and that a smiley-face is now present. The WVU in-game thread was similarly constructed and it worked out well. Thanks again and have fun in Indy.

[greybeard]

1. No. 50 to create for himself especially when their offense stalls. Answer, Singler and Nolan and Singler cramming the dribble.

2. Duke's taking care of the basketball. Especially on passes in which duke puts aire under it. Butler is amazing at getting those.

3. Duke's receptions. Duke can not sit back and wait for it when the pass goes forward, nor can they lean with it. They must go get it.

4. Duke must take care of the ball on the dribble, especially near the half court line where Butler's defense attacks. Butler uses its exceptional ball handling skills in spaces where ball handlers tend to relax because they have little to move if they miss--the guy still has the ball a mile from the basket. Butler is very good at turning isolated ball handlers over in this part of the floor. Duke must take care of the ball here.

5. Butler is a very good passing team off the dribble. They like to have a dribbler with advantage play quarterback and put it in places that lead to good scoring chances. Duke's bigs must guard the basket. If an exterior player gets beat, make the penetrator make the pull up. Do not allow a big to get caught coming out and the ball get dumped.

6. Avoid stupid fouls.

7. If Duke gets it around the basket, keep it simple and expect the challenge to come at the ball as the big moves it from catching to shooting position. Ne creative bringing the ball up; don't dawdle bringing the ball up. Once its up do not rush, and do not worry about outcomes.

Oh, the Big three go for 55-60 plus.

[dukemsu]

And deliver.

Show no mercy. Leave no doubt.

dukemsu

[devildownunder]

Howard concerns me. If he's healthy and can play as he normally does, Butler has a legit post presence. He may not be Kareem or anything but his game is back-to-basket moves and he's pretty good at it. This means that for the first time since, when, Georgetown maybe, we'll be facing a team with an old-fashioned post presence. That's not keeping me up at night but I am concerned about it because the style isn't something we see a lot of. It's not defending him, per se, that worries me, so much. It's the fact that the need to defend him may negatively affect our rebounding and hurt the rest of our defense. This is going to be, primarily, a half-court game. In the old days, half-court defense was always built around defending the low-post. These days, not so much, so I hope that we're ready to guard Howard in a way that allows the other aspects of our D to remain solid.

Also, all our players need to be ready to handle real man pressure and be strong with the ball. WV didn't pressure us at all, which surprised me (i guess Huggins was daring us to shoot), and we really took advantage of that strategy. Butler has shown throughout the tournament that they excel at swiping at balls and forcing live turnovers when the opposition shows their defenders the ball when driving or after rebounds and such. This really needs to be a point of emphasis. We had time to adjust and become strong with the ball against Purdue. If we come out weak again, Butler may not give us that chance. We all know the worst thing that can happen in this game is a quick start for Butler. That crowd will be out for blood against us.

[FerryFor50]

Howard concerns me. If he's healthy and can play as he normally does, Butler has a legit post presence. He may not be Kareem or anything but his game is back-to-basket moves and he's pretty good at it. This means that for the first time since, when, Georgetown maybe, we'll be facing a team with an old-fashioned post presence. That's not keeping me up at night but I am concerned about it because the style isn't something we see a lot of. It's not defending him, per se, that worries me, so much. It's the fact that the need to defend him may negatively affect our rebounding and hurt the rest of our defense. This is going to be, primarily, a half-court game. In the old days, half-court defense was always built around defending the low-post. These days, not so much, so I hope that we're ready to guard Howard in a way that allows the other aspects of our D to remain solid.

Also, all our players need to be ready to handle real man pressure and be strong with the ball. WV didn't pressure us at all, which surprised me (i guess Huggins was daring us to shoot), and we really took advantage of that strategy. Butler has shown throughout the tournament that they excel at swiping at balls and forcing live turnovers when the opposition shows their defenders the ball when driving or after rebounds and such. This really needs to be a point of emphasis. We had time to adjust and become strong with the ball against Purdue. If we come out weak again, Butler may not give us that chance. We all know the worst thing that can happen in this game is a quick start for Butler. That crowd will be out for blood against us.

Udoh was similar to Greg Monroe. He could play post up or face up. And Duke got burned by him, but they held the rest of the team in check.

[devildownunder]

Udoh was similar to Greg Monroe. He could play post up or face up. And Duke got burned by him, but they held the rest of the team in check.

Udoh did post up some but it's not really the featured part of his game.

I don't want to make too much out of this, it's just an aspect of this matchup that's been on my mind.

[Classof06]

I just want Duke to leave no doubt tomorrow. I still can't believe we're here and am so so proud of this team and these SENIORS. Like I said for the WVU game, I feel confident; this team deserves it and I think we get it done.

Just win, baby..


GO DUKE

[cptnflash]

Howard concerns me. If he's healthy and can play as he normally does, Butler has a legit post presence. He may not be Kareem or anything but his game is back-to-basket moves and he's pretty good at it. This means that for the first time since, when, Georgetown maybe, we'll be facing a team with an old-fashioned post presence. That's not keeping me up at night but I am concerned about it because the style isn't something we see a lot of. It's not defending him, per se, that worries me, so much. It's the fact that the need to defend him may negatively affect our rebounding and hurt the rest of our defense. This is going to be, primarily, a half-court game. In the old days, half-court defense was always built around defending the low-post. These days, not so much, so I hope that we're ready to guard Howard in a way that allows the other aspects of our D to remain solid.

I'm concerned about Howard for another reason as well - foul trouble for Zoubek. We were all reminded in the second half of the WV game that Brian is still more than capable of picking up 3 fouls in less than six minutes. If I were Brad Stevens, I would have Howard and Hayward go right at Brian early in the game and try to get him in foul trouble to mitigate our offensive rebounding capabilities.

[MarkD83]

Given Butler's lack of height is this the game that we see Ryan Kelly in the game if Zoubs gets into foul trouble. I can see our offense revolving around some high low passing to make Howard and Hayward work "alot" on defense and also to get Howard in foul trouble. Ryan is very good at this type of offense.

[CDu]

Given Butler's lack of height is this the game that we see Ryan Kelly in the game if Zoubs gets into foul trouble. I can see our offense revolving around some high low passing to make Howard and Hayward work "alot" on defense and also to get Howard in foul trouble. Ryan is very good at this type of offense.

I doubt it. Coach K likes to go with what got him here. And what got him here (along with the big 3, obviously) is a 4-man rotation of bigs that know their roles. If Kelly plays, I think it will be due to serious foul trouble (i.e., foul trouble to multiple bigs), and even then I doubt he'd see more than a couple of minutes.

[CDu]

Howard concerns me. If he's healthy and can play as he normally does, Butler has a legit post presence. He may not be Kareem or anything but his game is back-to-basket moves and he's pretty good at it. This means that for the first time since, when, Georgetown maybe, we'll be facing a team with an old-fashioned post presence. That's not keeping me up at night but I am concerned about it because the style isn't something we see a lot of. It's not defending him, per se, that worries me, so much. It's the fact that the need to defend him may negatively affect our rebounding and hurt the rest of our defense. This is going to be, primarily, a half-court game. In the old days, half-court defense was always built around defending the low-post. These days, not so much, so I hope that we're ready to guard Howard in a way that allows the other aspects of our D to remain solid.

We've played a number of teams with legit old-fashioned post presences since the Georgetown game: GT (twice), Miami, Maryland (twice), Tulsa, VT. We won all but one of those games. Further, we didn't lose the Georgetown game because of Monroe being a post presence. In fact, pulling Monroe out away from the basket and being a facilitator as well as a penetrator off the dribble was a key to their win. Monroe spent very little time with his back to the basket in that game.


Also, all our players need to be ready to handle real man pressure and be strong with the ball. WV didn't pressure us at all, which surprised me (i guess Huggins was daring us to shoot), and we really took advantage of that strategy. Butler has shown throughout the tournament that they excel at swiping at balls and forcing live turnovers when the opposition shows their defenders the ball when driving or after rebounds and such. This really needs to be a point of emphasis. We had time to adjust and become strong with the ball against Purdue. If we come out weak again, Butler may not give us that chance. We all know the worst thing that can happen in this game is a quick start for Butler. That crowd will be out for blood against us.

Butler's defense (and how we handle it) will be a key to this game. Their guards do a terrific job of defending/holding on the perimeter, and have at times made life difficult for opposing guards. How Scheyer, Smith, and Singler handle Butler's physical perimeter defense will be a key for sure.

The other thing that Butler has done amazingly well is limit second-chances. They held the #7 offensive rebounding team in the country to only 31% offensive rebounds (9% below their average). They held the #10 offensive rebounding team in the country to 25% offensive rebounds (15% below their average). They are one of the better defensive rebounding teams in the country, and they've shown it the last few games. Beating them on the boards will be a key.

[devildownunder]

We've played a number of teams with legit old-fashioned post presences since the Georgetown game: GT (twice), Miami, Maryland (twice), Tulsa, VT. We won all but one of those games. Further, we didn't lose the Georgetown game because of Monroe being a post presence. In fact, pulling Monroe out away from the basket and being a facilitator as well as a penetrator off the dribble was a key to their win. Monroe spent very little time with his back to the basket in that game.



Butler's defense (and how we handle it) will be a key to this game. Their guards do a terrific job of defending/holding on the perimeter, and have at times made life difficult for opposing guards. How Scheyer, Smith, and Singler handle Butler's physical perimeter defense will be a key for sure.

The other thing that Butler has done amazingly well is limit second-chances. They held the #7 offensive rebounding team in the country to only 31% offensive rebounds (9% below their average). They held the #10 offensive rebounding team in the country to 25% offensive rebounds (15% below their average). They are one of the better defensive rebounding teams in the country, and they've shown it the last few games. Beating them on the boards will be a key.

I guess I just didn't see most of those teams as being very strong all-around. You're right that we've played other post players, just not on teams I perceived as quality opponents.

And you're absolutely right about Monroe, G'town killed us by running offense through him in the high post -- among other things. There is just a traditional, old-school quality to Howard's game that I don't think our team D sees much, that's what concerns me. Maybe, as your post suggests, that notion is overblown on my part.

[hq2]

As far as overconfidence is concerned, K will take care of it. He did it in '91, and he couldn't do it in '99; half the '99 players were spending their time already counting their NBA millions, so nothing he could have said would have saved the situation there. This team has seniors who are bona fide Duke students, and they want to go out on top. They know this is a once in a lifetime moment, and they will play accordingly. We'll take 'em seriously.

Butler does play good perimeter defense. That will give us problems; it may affect our 3 point shooting considerably. We shot just about lights out in the two games when we really needed to. Since Butler doesn't seem to have that much scoring, we can shoot less well and still win. I predict they'll keep it close with their outside defense, and we'll just keep banging and wear 'em out down the stretch. We'll hang on, pull away down the stretch, and win by 10.

[DoubleDuke Dad]

I'm concerned about Howard for another reason as well - foul trouble for Zoubek. We were all reminded in the second half of the WV game that Brian is still more than capable of picking up 3 fouls in less than six minutes. If I were Brad Stevens, I would have Howard and Hayward go right at Brian early in the game and try to get him in foul trouble to mitigate our offensive rebounding capabilities.

15 minutes 4 personal fouls

20 minutes 3 personal fouls

32 minutes 4 personal fouls

18 minutes 4 personal fouls


No these are not Zoubek's numbers but Matt Howard's for the last four games. If anyone has to worry about foul trouble it is Butler. They don't have anyone decent to replace Matt Howard.

[CDu]

I guess I just didn't see most of those teams as being very strong all-around. You're right that we've played other post players, just not on teams I perceived as quality opponents.

And you're absolutely right about Monroe, G'town killed us by running offense through him in the high post -- among other things. There is just a traditional, old-school quality to Howard's game that I don't think our team D sees much, that's what concerns me. Maybe, as your post suggests, that notion is overblown on my part.

Well, some of those teams did have less balance. However, Maryland was much better offensively than Butler, and Miami was better offensively as well. I also think that the post players we faced on those other teams were better than Howard, too. Howard is a crafty, skilled player, but I'd rate him behind several of those guys as difference makers. Remember - Howard has had 4 or more fouls in 21 of Butler's 37 games, and has fouled out 8 times. And he hasn't fared as well against teams with size: 3-9 against Syracuse, 1-9 against Georgetown, 3-12 against OSU, 1-7 against MSU, only 2 attempts vs KSU (2-2 though). I'm not saying Howard can't be a difference maker. I just think we've faced plenty of post guys as good or better than him. Hopefully it plays out that way.

I'm a bit less concerned about Butler offensively. They certainly have talent, but I think we match up very well with them on that end of the floor. But what Butler does really well is defend the perimeter and prevent offensive rebounds. In other words, they defend very well against our biggest offensive strengths. It'll be interesting to see how that plays out in the game. I don't think Butler can score 65 points against us. I think they'll try to make this a 55-50 game. If we can generate 65-70 points, I think we'll win.

[NSDukeFan]

Better late than never -- I hope. I have been in Indianapolis and just turned on my computer.

Otherwise, I have been telling my Duke friends that this will be a very tough game against a Butler team that has already beaten a #1 and #2 plus a good Michigan State team.

Questions for Monday involve:

1. Duke's ability to shoot as well as on Saturday.

2. The intensity and effectiveness of Duke's defense against the Dawgs.

3. The ability to use our size to great advantage. Butler will go small -- which won't be much of a change. Duke must be able to deal with a smaller quicker team and still control the boards.

Hope I didn't let you guys down.

sagegrouse
1. I don't expect Duke to shoot as well as on Saturday, but it would be great if they did. I don't know if it was just my imagination, but many of the big 3s shots seemed so pure Saturday night, high arc, and nothing but net.
2. I think this is where I am most confident going into this game. I feel Duke has matched up with some very good offensive teams and has consistently defended very well. I am confident that Butler will not win in a blow-out.
3. I have much less confidence in this point, though I know on paper, we present a definite size mismatch. I expect Butler to defend us very well on the perimeter (similar to what Purdue was able to do) and box out very well. This Butler team is scaring me because of how well they have been rebounding defensively. If Duke cannot get second hand chances, the team's margin of error is greatly diminished.
I certainly don't feel let down.

I think both teams play D effectively. Neither runs the other team out of the gym, but both force tough shots. Duke is a better defensive rebounding team and is bigger, while Butler seems to play the passing lanes better.

Offensively, I'm not sure it's possible for us to shoot as well as we did Saturday night. However, anything in the ballpark means we stay two steps ahead of Butler on the scoreboard. I just dont think they have the firepower to score with us.
My impression is that Butler is the superior defensive rebounding team and it's actually not even close (Butler 14th in the country in D rebound %, and Duke 147th, from KenPom.) I would agree that Butler may play the passing lanes better and it sounds like their guards have very quick hands. I agree I don't think they are going to light up the scoreboard. My concern is that their defense may not allow us to do so either.


Butler's defense (and how we handle it) will be a key to this game. Their guards do a terrific job of defending/holding on the perimeter, and have at times made life difficult for opposing guards. How Scheyer, Smith, and Singler handle Butler's physical perimeter defense will be a key for sure.

The other thing that Butler has done amazingly well is limit second-chances. They held the #7 offensive rebounding team in the country to only 31% offensive rebounds (9% below their average). They held the #10 offensive rebounding team in the country to 25% offensive rebounds (15% below their average). They are one of the better defensive rebounding teams in the country, and they've shown it the last few games. Beating them on the boards will be a key.

I agree that how effectively our offense is against their defense will be the key to the game. I have confidence that our defense will continue to play at the high level it has. I am much more concerned about our ball movement on offense, limiting turnovers and our ability to get second chance opportunities. I think Zoubs is a big key to this game. If he can stay out of foul trouble, continue to give our offense second chances, set effective screens to open up our perimeter players, continue to make good decisions, get a couple hoops against smaller players guarding him and continue to be a big presence in defensive help-side, we have a very good chance to win.
I hope our experience against Purdue will help us in this game, in making sure that our perimeter players move well without the ball, so that we can be the effective offensive team we have been all year long.
I think if we can move the ball against their perimeter defense and offensive rebound we could beat a top 10 team on the road.

[airowe]

Decourcy on the David vs. Goliath myth:

http://www.sportingnews.com/college-basketball/article/2010-04-04/dont-believe-all-david-goliath-nonsense#comment-851237

[CDu]

I think both teams play D effectively. Neither runs the other team out of the gym, but both force tough shots. Duke is a better defensive rebounding team and is bigger, while Butler seems to play the passing lanes better.

Offensively, I'm not sure it's possible for us to shoot as well as we did Saturday night. However, anything in the ballpark means we stay two steps ahead of Butler on the scoreboard. I just dont think they have the firepower to score with us.

Butler is a better defensive rebounding team than us. They're one of the best in the country at it, while we're pretty mediocre at it. They've held three of the best offensive rebound teams in the country (back to back to back) to well below their season norms in rebounding. That's going to be a challenge for us. We may be up to that challenge, but it won't be because Butler isn't great on the defensive glass.

I completely agree with the second paragraph. I really don't think Butler can score with us, and I don't think they'll even want to try. They're going to want to keep the score low by limiting our scoring chances (forcing some turnovers, preventing offensive rebounds, playing stifling perimeter defense) and hope to score just enough.

[Troublemaker]

I guess I just didn't see most of those teams as being very strong all-around. You're right that we've played other post players, just not on teams I perceived as quality opponents.

And you're absolutely right about Monroe, G'town killed us by running offense through him in the high post -- among other things. There is just a traditional, old-school quality to Howard's game that I don't think our team D sees much, that's what concerns me. Maybe, as your post suggests, that notion is overblown on my part.

Howard is a concern of mine because he's an excellent screener. How we handle Butler's ball screens will be a key to the game. Hopefully our guys have the proper communication to prevent Howard from freeing up their guards for open drives and pull-ups and to prevent layups from any screen slips or off-ball cuts.

In addition to the ability to guard their screens, the two biggest keys as others have mentioned are protecting the ball against Butler's physical defense and exerting our height advantage on the boards. If Duke can have 10 or fewer turnovers (thus also preventing Butler from getting too many easy transition buckets off turnovers) and do a better job than KSU and MSU did on the offensive boards against the Bulldogs, I would guess Duke wins about 85% of the time. I have no real feel for IF Duke can control those two areas, though. We have a knack for protecting the ball and getting o-boards but Butler has a knack for forcing turnovers and grabbing d-boards, even against very good high-major teams. Something has to give.

One other thing I wanted to say is that Butler has off-the-charts intangibles (as does Duke). The Bulldogs come off as extremely poised, smart, and well-coached both on and off the court and they have that confidence from having won 25 games in a row.

[Genedoc]

I understand that Butler is a good defensive team, but reading some of the posts here and elsewhere, they're apparently some combination of the Steel Curtain and Bill Russell fused into one magical defensive juggernaut.

Yes, they're a good defense, but they're not better than other defenses we faced. The #1 ranked defensive team in the country in FSU, who we beat by 14. The #4 ranked Purdue defense we handled OK. West Virginia was ranked as high as Butler on defense until this past Saturday, when something happened that dropped them 10 spots. GT is #12. Clemson is #15. Wisconsin is #19. VT is #20. We've played against 6 of the top 20 defenses in the country 8 games this year and, and we've averaged 71.5 ppg vs. those top 20 defenses. And oh by the way, we get to play defense, too, and our defense is ranked higher than Butler's.

For all of the talk about how easy of a road we've had vs. how hard of a road Butler's had, we've actually faced much tough competition after the first round, where we notably got a bye and Butler had to play one of the toughest teams they've faced. Don't believe me? Their first round opponent is ranked #37. Since then, they've face #50 Murray St, #4 Cuse, #7 K State, and #23 MSU. Comparatively, Duke's faced #15, #16, #6, and #8.

Then there's Butler's #50 ranked offense. Again, let's go to the numbers. We've faced 4 teams in 6 games with offenses numerically similar to Butler's - Clemson (#44) x2, BC (#47) x2, Arizona State (#53). We've allows a whopping 53 ppg to those offenses.

So, what gives Butler's vaunted defense trouble? Size. Cuse without Onuaku, K State, and MSU were great matchups for Butler because they're all small teams. Cuse with Onuaku only ranks #64 in effective height, far lower without him. K State is #136. MSU is #196. Duke, meanwhile, is #7. Butler has faced a couple of other tall teams in Georgetown and Minnesota. They lost both of those games and gave up 82 and 72 points in doing so.

Yes, I understand they don't play the games on KenPom's hard drive, though for this one, I wish they did. No, I'm not saying it's a foregone conclusion that Duke wins tonight. However, this is pretty darn close to a dream matchup for Duke. They are and should be prohibitive favorites. There may not be another top 8 seed on the other side of the bracket that we'd match up any better with than we do Butler. Seriously. Go look at the bracket and hand pick a team you'd rather be playing. Maybe UNLV.

[Reddevil]

The reason Duke is in the championship game is because of how incredibly aggressive they have played. Purdue, Baylor, and WV apply a tremendous amount of defensive pressure. Duke responded by attacking. They really went to the rim against WV in particular which opened things up (that and Kyle was unconscious). All season long they passed the ball along the perimeter, but in this tournament they have been attacking the rim with the pass, penetration, and dishing the ball to Zoubs in the high post and letting him find the weak spot. Their aggressive play aimed at getting to the rim causes the outside to open up. Kyle attacked three times early against WV. He got blocked the first two times as I recall, but kept at it and successfully altered the focus of the defense. All of a sudden outside, inside, and mid-range shots were available. Nolan and Jon got in on it and attacked like sharks. If they continue to attack pressure this way, they should be successful. This type of play is probably why Coach K is saying the team keeps getting better. Butler is tough and smart, so to win Duke is going to have to take it from them. If they play like they have for the last 3 games, they can. The focus of this game should be the same as successful rebounding. They have to want it more. The more aggressive team probably wins. If Duke looks inside early, I like their chances.

[CrazieDUMB]

I understand that Butler is a good defensive team, but reading some of the posts here and elsewhere, they're apparently some combination of the Steel Curtain and Bill Russell fused into one magical defensive juggernaut.

Yes, they're a good defense, but they're not better than other defenses we faced. The #1 ranked defensive team in the country in FSU, who we beat by 14. The #4 ranked Purdue defense we handled OK. West Virginia was ranked as high as Butler on defense until this past Saturday, when something happened that dropped them 10 spots. GT is #12. Clemson is #15. Wisconsin is #19. VT is #20. We've played against 6 of the top 20 defenses in the country 8 games this year and, and we've averaged 71.5 ppg vs. those top 20 defenses. And oh by the way, we get to play defense, too, and our defense is ranked higher than Butler's.

For all of the talk about how easy of a road we've had vs. how hard of a road Butler's had, we've actually faced much tough competition after the first round, where we notably got a bye and Butler had to play one of the toughest teams they've faced. Don't believe me? Their first round opponent is ranked #37. Since then, they've face #50 Murray St, #4 Cuse, #7 K State, and #23 MSU. Comparatively, Duke's faced #15, #16, #6, and #8.

Then there's Butler's #50 ranked offense. Again, let's go to the numbers. We've faced 4 teams in 6 games with offenses numerically similar to Butler's - Clemson (#44) x2, BC (#47) x2, Arizona State (#53). We've allows a whopping 53 ppg to those offenses.

So, what gives Butler's vaunted defense trouble? Size. Cuse without Onuaku, K State, and MSU were great matchups for Butler because they're all small teams. Cuse with Onuaku only ranks #64 in effective height, far lower without him. K State is #136. MSU is #196. Duke, meanwhile, is #7. Butler has faced a couple of other tall teams in Georgetown and Minnesota. They lost both of those games and gave up 82 and 72 points in doing so.

Yes, I understand they don't play the games on KenPom's hard drive, though for this one, I wish they did. No, I'm not saying it's a foregone conclusion that Duke wins tonight. However, this is pretty darn close to a dream matchup for Duke. They are and should be prohibitive favorites. There may not be another top 8 seed on the other side of the bracket that we'd match up any better with than we do Butler. Seriously. Go look at the bracket and hand pick a team you'd rather be playing. Maybe UNLV.

Got to love the KenPom! A few points to add:

They're susceptible to blocks on offense (#237) and can't block on defense (#278). Let's see how they drive on Zou and the great wall of Plumlee.
Terrible terrible offensive rebounders (#241). I think this is a function of they'd rather drop back and set up their halfcourt defense, but it should give us and extra 10 shots or so just from this.
FWIW, for all the talk about their defense (#6), ours is ranked #3.

As we all know, anything can happen. I like our chances though. LETS GET IT DUKE!

[DukeGirl4ever]

Pomeroy has us as 7 pt favorites with an 81% chance of winning.
I know this was posted earlier, but what did he have us in our other games? I think I remember he had us as a 6 point favorite against Baylor, but I can't remember the other games.

Thanks.

[Genedoc]

I know this was posted earlier, but what did he have us in our other games? I think I remember he had us as a 6 point favorite against Baylor, but I can't remember the other games.

Thanks.
I didn't record it and his site resets after every game, so I don't know exactly. I do know that he said before the tournament, to much ridicule, that Duke was the favorite, and we've been favored in every game based on his data.

[DukeGirl4ever]

I didn't record it and his site resets after every game, so I don't know exactly. I do know that he said before the tournament, to much ridicule, that Duke was the favorite, and we've been favored in every game based on his data.

I know it was posted on here and if I had time, I'd do a search...maybe over my lunch break. :D

[CDu]

Got to love the KenPom! A few points to add:

They're susceptible to blocks on offense (#237) and can't block on defense (#278). Let's see how they drive on Zou and the great wall of Plumlee.
Terrible terrible offensive rebounders (#241). I think this is a function of they'd rather drop back and set up their halfcourt defense, but it should give us and extra 10 shots or so just from this.
FWIW, for all the talk about their defense (#6), ours is ranked #3.

As we all know, anything can happen. I like our chances though. LETS GET IT DUKE!

Only one point of note. While Butler is terrible on the offensive glass, they are VERY good on the defensive glass. So their inability/unwillingness to pound the offensive glass may not result in any additional shot attempts for us.

Butler has essentially offset the offensive rebounding in each of their last two games, both of which were also against teams that pound the offensive glass. So while we may very well still get our offensive rebounds, that's not a given against this stout defensive rebounding Butler team.

[CDu]

I know this was posted earlier, but what did he have us in our other games? I think I remember he had us as a 6 point favorite against Baylor, but I can't remember the other games.

Thanks.

He had us as a 70% favorite against WVU (winning by 5-7 points). I believe you are correct that he had us as a 6-point favorite against Baylor, but I can't remember the predicted probability of winning.

[91devil]

Let's not get caught watching the paint dry tonight.

LET'S GO DUKE!

[wgl1228]

Hopefully we can end this thing in the first half. I just can't imagine any scenario where Duke loses unless they shoot horribly and Butler shoots great.

[KyDevilinIL]

I'm so nervous right now I can barely see straight.

It's going to hinge on our ability to make shots and play really strong defense without fouling, because free throw margin has been a major offensive positive for Butler in this tournament. I have a feeling Butler's going to find a way to keep any advantage we have off the glass at a minimum.

And knock the crowd out of it as early as possible. I know Duke's used to playing in hostile "neutral" environments, but the title game is a different animal.

I'm confident in our guys, but there's no reason to expect Butler to throw in a clunker or to be outclassed in this game. That's not going to happen.

[airowe]

Only one point of note. While Butler is terrible on the offensive glass, they are VERY good on the defensive glass. So their inability/unwillingness to pound the offensive glass may not result in any additional shot attempts for us.

Butler has essentially offset the offensive rebounding in each of their last two games, both of which were also against teams that pound the offensive glass. So while we may very well still get our offensive rebounds, that's not a given against this stout defensive rebounding Butler team.

I hear what you're saying, but as Genedoc pointed out, butler has not fared well against teams with our effective height. I expect us to pound it inside early in this game like we did in the West Virginia game and use that to open things up for our perimeter shots.

This game looks like a blowout on paper. I don't think we'll win by 20, but its going to take a hell of a performance for Butler to win this game.

[moonpie23]

cautioun

focus...



does walgreen's cary liquid valium?

[roywhite]

caution

focus...

does walgreen's cary liquid valium?

"Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue."

[dukelifer]

Let's not get caught watching the paint dry tonight.

LET'S GO DUKE!

I am pretty sure Butler has the picket fence in the play book.

[MChambers]

I hear what you're saying, but as Genedoc pointed out, butler has not fared well against teams with our effective height. I expect us to pound it inside early in this game like we did in the West Virginia game and use that to open things up for our perimeter shots.

This game looks like a blowout on paper. I don't think we'll win by 20, but its going to take a hell of a performance for Butler to win this game.

Don't think it looks like a blowout. Butler is pretty darned good, and plays excellent defense. Hard to blow a team like that out.

It looks like a close game, but we should win. I feel good about our chances, but don't expect a blowout.

[Matches]

Don't think it looks like a blowout. Butler is pretty darned good, and plays excellent defense. Hard to blow a team like that out.

It looks like a close game, but we should win. I feel good about our chances, but don't expect a blowout.

Tempo-wise, this is likely to be one of those games where no one gets too large a lead. A 10-12 point margin either way would be really significant (esp. if we get up on them - not sure they've got the firepower to make up a big deficit).

Butler has won by keeping games close and executing at the end. Against quality competition (WVa notwithstanding), our strategy has been similar. Look for a grinder tonight.

[InSpades]

I am pretty sure Butler has the picket fence in the play book.

I swear that Heyward did the exact same move as Jimmy Chitwood against MSU. It was about 10 minutes in... he was 1-on-1 at the top of the key (maybe a little left of key), he dribbled between his hands... made a quick step right and the pulled up from the top of the key. He bricked it though. Maybe my recollection of Hoosiers is fuzzy... but it looked almost identical to the last shot of the championship game.

[CDu]

I hear what you're saying, but as Genedoc pointed out, butler has not fared well against teams with our effective height. I expect us to pound it inside early in this game like we did in the West Virginia game and use that to open things up for our perimeter shots.

This game looks like a blowout on paper. I don't think we'll win by 20, but its going to take a hell of a performance for Butler to win this game.

Yeah, I wasn't saying that Butler would definitely keep us off the offensive glass. That is going to be one of the keys to the game, and if we are able to get second chances I think Butler will have a long night. I'm not certain that we'll still get our offensive rebounds, but I do think we will. And I definitely think we'll get the defensive rebounds.

I was merely saying that Butler's poor offensive rebounding wouldn't necessarily translate to a big advantage in number shots for us. They don't offensive rebound, but they generally don't allow offensive rebounds easier, so the two have tended to even out.

Sorry if I wasn't clear.

[mgtr]

cautioun

focus...



does walgreen's cary liquid valium?

No, but the liquor store does!:D

[whereinthehellami]

I understand that Butler is a good defensive team, but reading some of the posts here and elsewhere, they're apparently some combination of the Steel Curtain and Bill Russell fused into one magical defensive juggernaut.

Yes, they're a good defense, but they're not better than other defenses we faced. The #1 ranked defensive team in the country in FSU, who we beat by 14. The #4 ranked Purdue defense we handled OK. West Virginia was ranked as high as Butler on defense until this past Saturday, when something happened that dropped them 10 spots. GT is #12. Clemson is #15. Wisconsin is #19. VT is #20. We've played against 6 of the top 20 defenses in the country 8 games this year and, and we've averaged 71.5 ppg vs. those top 20 defenses. And oh by the way, we get to play defense, too, and our defense is ranked higher than Butler's.

For all of the talk about how easy of a road we've had vs. how hard of a road Butler's had, we've actually faced much tough competition after the first round, where we notably got a bye and Butler had to play one of the toughest teams they've faced. Don't believe me? Their first round opponent is ranked #37. Since then, they've face #50 Murray St, #4 Cuse, #7 K State, and #23 MSU. Comparatively, Duke's faced #15, #16, #6, and #8.

Then there's Butler's #50 ranked offense. Again, let's go to the numbers. We've faced 4 teams in 6 games with offenses numerically similar to Butler's - Clemson (#44) x2, BC (#47) x2, Arizona State (#53). We've allows a whopping 53 ppg to those offenses.

So, what gives Butler's vaunted defense trouble? Size. Cuse without Onuaku, K State, and MSU were great matchups for Butler because they're all small teams. Cuse with Onuaku only ranks #64 in effective height, far lower without him. K State is #136. MSU is #196. Duke, meanwhile, is #7. Butler has faced a couple of other tall teams in Georgetown and Minnesota. They lost both of those games and gave up 82 and 72 points in doing so.

Yes, I understand they don't play the games on KenPom's hard drive, though for this one, I wish they did. No, I'm not saying it's a foregone conclusion that Duke wins tonight. However, this is pretty darn close to a dream matchup for Duke. They are and should be prohibitive favorites. There may not be another top 8 seed on the other side of the bracket that we'd match up any better with than we do Butler. Seriously. Go look at the bracket and hand pick a team you'd rather be playing. Maybe UNLV.

Exellent analysis Genedoc. There is alot of good info in here.

[dukestheheat]

Besides the analysis of the talent on the floor, I do want to continue to tout the advantage we have in K, and K's big-game experience: with all this, he qualifies as SUPERMAN!

How many teams out there have Superman as coach?? Only DUKE!

Butler's coach is superb and has had a great year as we all recognize, but there is no subsitute for having the big game coaching experience! Most certainly, this will work in Duke's favor tonight.

dth.

[superdave]

The stats definitely do point to a Duke victory. But I think there's two great reasons why we win tonight if you want to simplify:

First, as someone noted earlier, Butler probably cannot score enough points to win this game.

Second, Duke is peaking right now. That peak is not only individually doing things well (Z's offensive rebounding, Nolan's slashing, 3 pointers) but also incredibly good team defense. Watching Miles guard on the perimeter the other night put a smile on my face. We'd beat Cuse, Kansas or Kentucky playing as well as we have vs Baylor and WV.

Baylor is not peaking. They shot 24% in the 2nd half vs. MSU and their offense appeared to be asleep at other times. Matt Howard has been in foul trouble a lot of this tournament and they've not gotten the best games out of any of their big time opponents.

We are twice the team that lost at Gtown and three times the team that lost to NCSU. We dont have big defensive lapses and we are executing our offense well against all defensive looks. Our confidence is through the roof. It's a great feeling!

I dont mean to be woofing either. Just stating the facts!

[NSDukeFan]

I understand that Butler is a good defensive team, but reading some of the posts here and elsewhere, they're apparently some combination of the Steel Curtain and Bill Russell fused into one magical defensive juggernaut.

Yes, they're a good defense, but they're not better than other defenses we faced. The #1 ranked defensive team in the country in FSU, who we beat by 14. The #4 ranked Purdue defense we handled OK. West Virginia was ranked as high as Butler on defense until this past Saturday, when something happened that dropped them 10 spots. GT is #12. Clemson is #15. Wisconsin is #19. VT is #20. We've played against 6 of the top 20 defenses in the country 8 games this year and, and we've averaged 71.5 ppg vs. those top 20 defenses. And oh by the way, we get to play defense, too, and our defense is ranked higher than Butler's.

For all of the talk about how easy of a road we've had vs. how hard of a road Butler's had, we've actually faced much tough competition after the first round, where we notably got a bye and Butler had to play one of the toughest teams they've faced. Don't believe me? Their first round opponent is ranked #37. Since then, they've face #50 Murray St, #4 Cuse, #7 K State, and #23 MSU. Comparatively, Duke's faced #15, #16, #6, and #8.

Then there's Butler's #50 ranked offense. Again, let's go to the numbers. We've faced 4 teams in 6 games with offenses numerically similar to Butler's - Clemson (#44) x2, BC (#47) x2, Arizona State (#53). We've allows a whopping 53 ppg to those offenses.

So, what gives Butler's vaunted defense trouble? Size. Cuse without Onuaku, K State, and MSU were great matchups for Butler because they're all small teams. Cuse with Onuaku only ranks #64 in effective height, far lower without him. K State is #136. MSU is #196. Duke, meanwhile, is #7. Butler has faced a couple of other tall teams in Georgetown and Minnesota. They lost both of those games and gave up 82 and 72 points in doing so.

Yes, I understand they don't play the games on KenPom's hard drive, though for this one, I wish they did. No, I'm not saying it's a foregone conclusion that Duke wins tonight. However, this is pretty darn close to a dream matchup for Duke. They are and should be prohibitive favorites. There may not be another top 8 seed on the other side of the bracket that we'd match up any better with than we do Butler. Seriously. Go look at the bracket and hand pick a team you'd rather be playing. Maybe UNLV.
Thanks for some excellent, well-backed up points. I am still nervous of course, because I do think that Butler (because of tough D, defensive rebounding and pace) will likely keep the score close. I do also think that this Duke team is the best in the country at closing out games. I don't know if that is in KenPom or not. I am glad that they are not just playing the game on the computers, I think it will be more entertaining to watch it. ;)

The stats definitely do point to a Duke victory. But I think there's two great reasons why we win tonight if you want to simplify:

First, as someone noted earlier, Butler probably cannot score enough points to win this game.

Second, Duke is peaking right now. That peak is not only individually doing things well (Z's offensive rebounding, Nolan's slashing, 3 pointers) but also incredibly good team defense. Watching Miles guard on the perimeter the other night put a smile on my face. We'd beat Cuse, Kansas or Kentucky playing as well as we have vs Baylor and WV.

Baylor is not peaking. They shot 24% in the 2nd half vs. MSU and their offense appeared to be asleep at other times. Matt Howard has been in foul trouble a lot of this tournament and they've not gotten the best games out of any of their big time opponents.

We are twice the team that lost at Gtown and three times the team that lost to NCSU. We dont have big defensive lapses and we are executing our offense well against all defensive looks. Our confidence is through the roof. It's a great feeling!

I dont mean to be woofing either. Just stating the facts!

I agree that Duke has been peaking at the right time and remember many wise posters mentioning how this year there seemed to be more room for improvement in January and February than a couple of previous years. I think Butler has been playing pretty good basketball the past month as well, but their strength has been on the defensive end.

[cato]

Thanks for some excellent, well-backed up points.

Seriously. Genedoc, this is some of your best work ever. At just the right time. When I start getting nervous throughout the day, I'm coming back to your posts.


I do also think that this Duke team is the best in the country at closing out games.

Amen. This team does an amazing job of taking the air out of the ball, and still getting quality looks at the end of the shot clock. Combine that with the outstanding half-court defense and offensive rebounding, and this team makes a 10 point late game lead seem like 20.

Anything can happen tonight, of course. But the combination of strength and length in the post, 3-headed (4-headed?) monster on offense, and stall ball prowess gives me comfort.

[-bdbd]

I understand that Butler is a good defensive team, but reading some of the posts here and elsewhere, they're apparently some combination of the Steel Curtain and Bill Russell fused into one magical defensive juggernaut.

Yes, they're a good defense, but they're not better than other defenses we faced. The #1 ranked defensive team in the country in FSU, who we beat by 14. The #4 ranked Purdue defense we handled OK. West Virginia was ranked as high as Butler on defense until this past Saturday, when something happened that dropped them 10 spots. GT is #12. Clemson is #15. Wisconsin is #19. VT is #20. We've played against 6 of the top 20 defenses in the country 8 games this year and, and we've averaged 71.5 ppg vs. those top 20 defenses. And oh by the way, we get to play defense, too, and our defense is ranked higher than Butler's.

For all of the talk about how easy of a road we've had vs. how hard of a road Butler's had, we've actually faced much tough competition after the first round, where we notably got a bye and Butler had to play one of the toughest teams they've faced. Don't believe me? Their first round opponent is ranked #37. Since then, they've face #50 Murray St, #4 Cuse, #7 K State, and #23 MSU. Comparatively, Duke's faced #15, #16, #6, and #8.

Then there's Butler's #50 ranked offense. Again, let's go to the numbers. We've faced 4 teams in 6 games with offenses numerically similar to Butler's - Clemson (#44) x2, BC (#47) x2, Arizona State (#53). We've allows a whopping 53 ppg to those offenses.

So, what gives Butler's vaunted defense trouble? Size. Cuse without Onuaku, K State, and MSU were great matchups for Butler because they're all small teams. Cuse with Onuaku only ranks #64 in effective height, far lower without him. K State is #136. MSU is #196. Duke, meanwhile, is #7. Butler has faced a couple of other tall teams in Georgetown and Minnesota. They lost both of those games and gave up 82 and 72 points in doing so.

Yes, I understand they don't play the games on KenPom's hard drive, though for this one, I wish they did. No, I'm not saying it's a foregone conclusion that Duke wins tonight. However, this is pretty darn close to a dream matchup for Duke. They are and should be prohibitive favorites. There may not be another top 8 seed on the other side of the bracket that we'd match up any better with than we do Butler. Seriously. Go look at the bracket and hand pick a team you'd rather be playing. Maybe UNLV.

Thanks Genedoc -- all solid points.

I'll give you just one very sobering thought: We are favored in this game. BUT WE ARE FAVORED BY LESS THAN WE WERE FAVORED IN THE 1999 TITLE GAME VERSUS UCONN. And we all know how that one turned out... :( All we need to do is miss a few open 3's, the team to get rattled by the "away game" crowd/atmosphere, or have a couple key players get early foul trouble, and then we're all chewing our fingernails to the nub and swigging Pepto-Bismal around 11PM (EST) tonight.

Stay focused Duke. Five down, ONE STILL TO GO.


:D:D

[slower]

When I start getting nervous throughout the day, I'm coming back to your posts.

I plan to STAY nervous until this one is locked up. ;)

ANYTHING can happen. Lies, damn lies and statistics.

[superdave]

Bilas over on espn.com points a few things out about Butler and Duke:

During their 25 game win streak, they've shot 46%. But during the NCAAs they've shot 39%.

They are hitting their threes, free throws (22+ per game) and have a plus-5.6 turnover per game average.

Only Macy and Hayward are shooting threes consistently.

Butler is getting out-rebounded by 3.4 while Duke is plus-10.

Zoubek is averaging over 4 offensive rebounds during the tournament.

Bilas does not give a clear coaching advantage to K, saying no coach who makes the finals will be out-coached. Hmmmm.

[jipops]

A couple things really stress me out about this one. On numerous occasions in the wvu game we encountered shock clock violations. It's not likely we'll get clean looks against Butler as the shot clock is winding down. Also, we allowed wvu to shoot 50% in the 1st half Saturday night. There were way too many easy looks along the baseline for them.

I expect our offense to struggle mightily. It's gonna be real, real ugly folks. It is so very important for us to take care of the ball thereby not giving up points in transition and rebound the ball. If we don't take care of these two aspects of the game it is going to be a very painful night.

[tecumseh]

The biggest advantage Duke has is the big three just played a game in this arena where they all shot well. Shooting is 50, 70. 90 pick a number confidence and they should be highly confident

[Matches]

Bilas does not give a clear coaching advantage to K, saying no coach who makes the finals will be out-coached. Hmmmm.

He must have mentally vacated Memphis' appearance in the 2008 finals.

[Welcome2DaSlopes]

I don't think anyone can stop Zouberman right now.

[airowe]

Thanks Genedoc -- all solid points.

I'll give you just one very sobering thought: We are favored in this game. BUT WE ARE FAVORED BY LESS THAN WE WERE FAVORED IN THE 1999 TITLE GAME VERSUS UCONN. And we all know how that one turned out... :( All we need to do is miss a few open 3's, the team to get rattled by the "away game" crowd/atmosphere, or have a couple key players get early foul trouble, and then we're all chewing our fingernails to the nub and swigging Pepto-Bismal around 11PM (EST) tonight.

Stay focused Duke. Five down, ONE STILL TO GO.


:D:D

Well, we are favored by less than carolina was last year against Michigan State and we all know how THAT worked out.

The games of years past do not matter one lick to this game tonight. They play the games for a reason, but on paper you have like our chances. I sure do.

[gwlaw99]

Just re-watched Butler/Michigan State. Butler got almost all their shot opportunities on drive kick-outs (sometimes multiple drives in succession), drives with no help, or when shooters were left open. Hayward drove the baseline a lot. They do not use high screens very often. In other words, we need to stop their dribble penetration and not leave people open for 3s like we did in the first half of WV. Howard also has some moves inside using the rim to trap the defender.

[dukestheheat]

I am sure this has been discussed earlier in this particular thread, but I don't have the time to find it now: Which Duke player will guard Hayward (guard/forward) on Butler?

He's a big-time player and we need to slow him down. I'm thinking Singler since he, too, fits that position.

thanks,

dth.

[MarkD83]

and stall ball prowess gives me comfort.

This might actually give a lot of people on this board hypertension given the discussions I have seen in the past.

[superdave]

Our bigs are moving well enough on the perimeter right now to where they will hold their own. Our backside rotations appear to have improved as well. I dont think we'll let too many shooters pop open free and easy, nor will we leave the rim unattended at all.

I think the biggest concern is their guards getting to the rim by splitting our defenders. That could get us in foul trouble or get them easy buckets. I think defensively we need to force their guards to pull up because of our size. Long contested twos!

[Welcome2DaSlopes]

I am sure this has been discussed earlier in this particular thread, but I don't have the time to find it now: Which Duke player will guard Hayward (guard/forward) on Butler?

He's a big-time player and we need to slow him down. I'm thinking Singler since he, too, fits that position.

thanks,

dth.

Yeah, or maybe even Lance

[superdave]

I am sure this has been discussed earlier in this particular thread, but I don't have the time to find it now: Which Duke player will guard Hayward (guard/forward) on Butler?

He's a big-time player and we need to slow him down. I'm thinking Singler since he, too, fits that position.

thanks,

dth.

Either Kyle or Lance and maybe both guard Hayward. Both are up to it, both are quick enough and both are stronger physically. He has not seen a D like ours at the 3/4.

He seemed to get open 3s on broken plays the other night. Bad switches, long rebounds, etc. Dont see us losing him at all tonight.

We limited DaSean Butler and Lacedarious Dunn. Hayward's no better than either of those guys. We'll frustrate him a lot with Kyle and Lance.

[Vasherized]

Can Butler get Duke out of its comfort zone?

Can Duke find the right defensive alignment to stop Hayward?

Does Duke's hot shooting suddenly go cold?

Can The Kid actually outsmart Coach K?


MarchtoMarch preview of Duke / Butler (http://marchtomarch.fantake.com/2010/04/05/butler-vs-duke-keys-to-the-game/)

And congrats to A-Tex Bluedevil, as he is primed to win our Beat the Barkers bracket pool with a Duke victory. Out of 150 entries, only two had Duke to win. WHEN WILL PEOPLE LEARN?

[cato]

This might actually give a lot of people on this board hypertension given the discussions I have seen in the past.

Yeah, well, they're probably also worried about Scheyer's legs and convinced that K's failure to develop the bench will come back to kill the team tonight.

[dukestheheat]

Either Kyle or Lance and maybe both guard Hayward. Both are up to it, both are quick enough and both are stronger physically. He has not seen a D like ours at the 3/4.

He seemed to get open 3s on broken plays the other night. Bad switches, long rebounds, etc. Dont see us losing him at all tonight.

We limited DaSean Butler and Lacedarious Dunn. Hayward's no better than either of those guys. We'll frustrate him a lot with Kyle and Lance.

that Kyle was guarding, from the game's onset, when Kyle ended up going 0-10? I'm thinking that with Hayward's size, Kyle matches much better defending him versus a guy like Dunn. I have to believe that it was this early matchup in that game that somehow knocked Kyle off balance (and, he was saddled with 2 very early fouls trying to contain the much quicker, speedier Dunn).

dth.

[CDu]

Defensively, I think we focus on containing Mack and Hayward on the perimeter and force Butler's other players to beat us. Howard is a gifted player on the block, but he's struggled to be a factor against teams with size/length this season (probably because he's not very tall and not that quick). I'm not saying we leave Nored, Veasley, Vanzant, Hahn (especially not Hahn), or Jukes open. But we definitely need to stay on Hayward and Mack first and foremost.

Again, I am less concerned about Butler's offense than I am their defense. Their offense is just okay - they win with defense. I'm more interested in how our offense responds to their defense and defensive rebounding prowess. I think we'll hold them to 60 or below. I want to see if we can put up more than 60 on them.

I think if we get to 65, we win. I just don't know if Butler can score that much. Of course, getting to 65 is easier said than done.

[whereinthehellami]

I looked up Gordon Hayward on the RSCI recruiting index for his year and found out that he was not in the Top100 that year and was missed by all the major programs. Great find by Butler as the kid is a stud. I wonder if he was injured in HS or from a small school off the radar of the scouts.

And on an unrelated note, I'm not sure how much coaching adjustments matter when you have a little over a day to prepare.

[Genedoc]

Seriously. Genedoc, this is some of your best work ever. At just the right time. When I start getting nervous throughout the day, I'm coming back to your posts.

Thanks. I've pages of this stuff. Everyone deals with nerves in their own way, and my way has been pour over KenPom's site with a fine toothed comb.

One of the things that gives me solace in these numbers is that there's no trick or gimmick Butler has that we need to solve. They play the same defense we see every day in practice - hellacious, tenacious, disruptive man to man. They don't have a scorer we can't contain that could go for 50, or a Baylorian front line that could man handle us. They got here by being Duke, quite frankly.

As for tonight, I think Coach K's pre-game speech almost write's itself. "Gentlemen, let's be clear. Nobody in the country wants you to win this game. Everyone that didn't graduate from Duke is rooting for you to fail. They think you've been given something, that you're here because a few lucky bounces of the ball and a lucky draw.

But we know better. We know how hard we've worked, how far we've come. And we're not there, yet. We're 40 minutes away. Your opponent is a mirror image of you. They're tough as hell, they fight, they scrap, and they work. Sound familiar? That's Duke basketball. They will beat you if you walk out there and fail to match their intensity. Their defense is good, but yours is better. You will go stretches where scoring is tough - we've been there before and know that the answer to those droughts lies in playing even tougher, smarter defense than they do. Do not let what is or isn't happening on offense alter your defensive intensity. John, Brian, Lance - you three have no more than 30-35 possession on defense remaining in your NCAA career. There is no tomorrow, no point in pacing yourselves. Defend those 30-35 possessions the way you know you can, and everything else will take care of itself. Now get out there and work harder than your opponent, and attack their pressure. Whichever team works harder, whichever team is more aggressive, will win this game.

[theAlaskanBear]

Thanks. I've pages of this stuff. Everyone deals with nerves in their own way, and my way has been pour over KenPom's site with a fine toothed comb.

One of the things that gives me solace in these numbers is that there's no trick or gimmick Butler has that we need to solve. They play the same defense we see every day in practice - hellacious, tenacious, disruptive man to man. They don't have a scorer we can't contain that could go for 50, or a Baylorian front line that could man handle us. They got here by being Duke, quite frankly.

As for tonight, I think Coach K's pre-game speech almost write's itself. "Gentlemen, let's be clear. Nobody in the country wants you to win this game. Everyone that didn't graduate from Duke is rooting for you to fail. They think you've been given something, that you're here because a few lucky bounces of the ball and a lucky draw.

But we know better. We know how hard we've worked, how far we've come. And we're not there, yet. We're 40 minutes away. Your opponent is a mirror image of you. They're tough as hell, they fight, they scrap, and they work. Sound familiar? That's Duke basketball. They will beat you if you walk out there and fail to match their intensity. Their defense is good, but yours is better. You will go stretches where scoring is tough - we've been there before and know that the answer to those droughts lies in playing even tougher, smarter defense than they do. Do not let what is or isn't happening on offense alter your defensive intensity. John, Brian, Lance - you three have no more than 30-35 possession on defense remaining in your NCAA career. There is no tomorrow, no point in pacing yourselves. Defend those 30-35 possessions the way you know you can, and everything else will take care of itself. Now get out there and work harder than your opponent, and attack their pressure. Whichever team works harder, whichever team is more aggressive, will win this game.

If I ever get into coaching, im hiring you as speechwriter...errr, assistant.

[Neals384]

I am sure this has been discussed earlier in this particular thread, but I don't have the time to find it now: Which Duke player will guard Hayward (guard/forward) on Butler?

He's a big-time player and we need to slow him down. I'm thinking Singler since he, too, fits that position.

thanks,

dth.

Hayward, who's a .299 three pt shooter for the season (against mid-major defenses), pours in 7 of 15 against Syr, KState & Mich St. Hopefully Kyle or Lance can help bring him back to Earth.

[blueprofessor]

Defensively, I think we focus on containing Mack and Hayward on the perimeter and force Butler's other players to beat us. Howard is a gifted player on the block, but he's struggled to be a factor against teams with size/length this season (probably because he's not very tall and not that quick). I'm not saying we leave Nored, Veasley, Vanzant, Hahn (especially not Hahn), or Jukes open. But we definitely need to stay on Hayward and Mack first and foremost.

Again, I am less concerned about Butler's offense than I am their defense. Their offense is just okay - they win with defense. I'm more interested in how our offense responds to their defense and defensive rebounding prowess. I think we'll hold them to 60 or below. I want to see if we can put up more than 60 on them.

I think if we get to 65, we win. I just don't know if Butler can score that much. Of course, getting to 65 is easier said than done.

Spread is 7, may go to 8.
Almost no one is betting on Butler.
Duke is America's favorite team to bet on.

Link: http://www.lvrj.com/sports/not-everybody-rooting-against-duke-in-ncaa-title-game-89897767.html

Las Vegas gamblers will not let us lose! Of course, they are in K's pocket.
Wait until Goug Gottdweeb finds out! Still time for the horse's head to be delivered by K to Butler's hotel.

Best regards and knock on wood until your knuckles ache.
Blueprofessor:)

[tbyers11]

I looked up Gordon Hayward on the RSCI recruiting index for his year and found out that he was not in the Top100 that year and was missed by all the major programs. Great find by Butler as the kid is a stud. I wonder if he was injured in HS or from a small school off the radar of the scouts.

And on an unrelated note, I'm not sure how much coaching adjustments matter when you have a little over a day to prepare.

He was a late bloomer size wise. He was 5-11 as a high school freshman and only 6-4 as a soph. He also was a very good tennis player (IIRC, he won the Indiana state high school tennis championship) and didn't play much AAU ball the summer before his senior year b/c he was playing tennis.

A good article from the Philly Inquirer (http://www.philly.com/inquirer/sports/89894572.html).

[blueprofessor]

As for tonight, I think Coach K's pre-game speech almost write's itself. "Gentlemen, let's be clear. Nobody in the country wants you to win this game. Everyone that didn't graduate from Duke is rooting for you to fail. They think you've been given something, that you're here because a few lucky bounces of the ball and a lucky draw.

But we know better. We know how hard we've worked, how far we've come. And we're not there, yet. We're 40 minutes away. Your opponent is a mirror image of you. They're tough as hell, they fight, they scrap, and they work. Sound familiar? That's Duke basketball. They will beat you if you walk out there and fail to match their intensity. Their defense is good, but yours is better. You will go stretches where scoring is tough - we've been there before and know that the answer to those droughts lies in playing even tougher, smarter defense than they do. Do not let what is or isn't happening on offense alter your defensive intensity. John, Brian, Lance - you three have no more than 30-35 possession on defense remaining in your NCAA career. There is no tomorrow, no point in pacing yourselves. Defend those 30-35 possessions the way you know you can, and everything else will take care of itself. Now get out there and work harder than your opponent, and attack their pressure. Whichever team works harder, whichever team is more aggressive, will win this game.

George Patton Bear Rockne Wilkinson Wooden Genedoc II !:)

Best regards.
Blueprofessor:)

[CDu]

Hayward, who's a .299 three pt shooter for the season (against mid-major defenses), pours in 7 of 15 against Syr, KState & Mich St. Hopefully Kyle or Lance can help bring him back to Earth.

Yeah, he's due for an off-night from the field. We defend the 3 well. Let's hope that trend continues and the hot-shooting trend for Hayward doesn't.

[tbyers11]

Hayward, who's a .299 three pt shooter for the season (against mid-major defenses), pours in 7 of 15 against Syr, KState & Mich St. Hopefully Kyle or Lance can help bring him back to Earth.

Strange thing about Hayward's three-point shooting. He shot 44.8 percent his freshman year in almost the identical number of attempts that he has had this season. That gives him a 37.3% over his career which seems about right to me. He is not a great 3 pt shooter but he is pretty good and I think his 29.9% season number this year is a little misleading.

I agree in hoping that Lance and/or Kyle can keep that number low tonight :)

[SharkD]

Thanks. I've pages of this stuff. Everyone deals with nerves in their own way, and my way has been pour over KenPom's site with a fine toothed comb.

One of the things that gives me solace in these numbers is that there's no trick or gimmick Butler has that we need to solve. They play the same defense we see every day in practice - hellacious, tenacious, disruptive man to man. They don't have a scorer we can't contain that could go for 50, or a Baylorian front line that could man handle us. They got here by being Duke, quite frankly.

As for tonight, I think Coach K's pre-game speech almost write's itself. "Gentlemen, let's be clear. Nobody in the country wants you to win this game. Everyone that didn't graduate from Duke is rooting for you to fail. They think you've been given something, that you're here because a few lucky bounces of the ball and a lucky draw.

But we know better. We know how hard we've worked, how far we've come. And we're not there, yet. We're 40 minutes away. Your opponent is a mirror image of you. They're tough as hell, they fight, they scrap, and they work. Sound familiar? That's Duke basketball. They will beat you if you walk out there and fail to match their intensity. Their defense is good, but yours is better. You will go stretches where scoring is tough - we've been there before and know that the answer to those droughts lies in playing even tougher, smarter defense than they do. Do not let what is or isn't happening on offense alter your defensive intensity. Jon, Brian, Lance - you three have no more than 30-35 possessions on defense remaining in your NCAA career. There is no tomorrow, no point in pacing yourselves. Defend those 30-35 possessions the way you know you can, and everything else will take care of itself. Now get out there and work harder than your opponent, and attack their pressure. Whichever team works harder, whichever team is more aggressive, will win this game.

Fixed that for you.

[Genedoc]

I am sure this has been discussed earlier in this particular thread, but I don't have the time to find it now: Which Duke player will guard Hayward (guard/forward) on Butler?

He's a big-time player and we need to slow him down. I'm thinking Singler since he, too, fits that position.

thanks,

dth.

My guess is he'll see Lance more often than anyone else. If I were a forward I know I'd prefer to take my chances with Kyle guarding me instead of Lance. Lance looks like he takes all of the fun out of playing basketball for whomever he guards.

If I were matching us up, this is how I'd do it.

Zoubek vs. Howard - This is the most obvious matchup, and Howard is no 3 point threat.

Lance vs. Hayward - 6'8" vs. 6'8", and Lance can guard him perimeter or post.

Kyle vs. Mack - Mack's a good 3 point shooter, so Kyle will have to try and use his size to challenge Mack's shots.

Scheyer vs. Veasely - The other big 3 point shooter. Like Kyle, Scheyer has a size advantage and is accustomed to defending the perimeter.

Nolan vs. Nored - Huge advantage for Duke. Nolan is taller, and Nored is not a 3 point threat (8/44 on the year). Look for Nolan to be helping off on drivers and for the rest of the defenders to be switching off of Nored and onto Veasely/Mack/Hayward.

When Jukes and Hahn are in the game, you can't leave them open, especially Hahn. Hahn should be a designated "NO HELP" player. That is, when you're assigned to him, you DO NOT HELP on anything else. Take your chances with him creating his own shot, but you can't give him spot up jumpers.

[NYDukie]

3 of the 5 picking Butler with Katz wanting to pick Butler. For argument sake we will make him the 4th Butler guys with one guy (Brennan) picking Duke. Have to say, to no one's suprise, many are picking Butler. Again, my issue is that many are picking based on the "Hoosier" them being the backbone of their argument or wish, whatever you may call it, rather than that Butler is a real good team. Butler is a legit top 15 team and all this Cinderella talk is a disservice in my opinion to them and slap in the face to both Duke and Butler!!!!

To me the biggest key to the game, which may have been picked up on, is how the game is called. Everyone is quick to say Duke gets the rebounding edge with Zoubs size but if the refs hold his size against him when someone bounces off him to the floor, by no fault of Zoubs, and he gets into foul trouble, it could make things very interesting. For me personally, I've seen too many championship games in which the refs try to exert their will on the game early and screw it up for both teams or one more than the other. Just something to keep an eye on.

[Genedoc]

3 of the 5 picking Butler with Katz wanting to pick Butler. For argument sake we will make him the 4th Butler guys with one guy (Brennan) picking Duke. Have to say, to no one's suprise, many are picking Butler. Again, my issue is that many are picking based on the "Hoosier" them being the backbone of their argument or wish, whatever you may call it, rather than that Butler is a real good team. Butler is a legit top 15 team and all this Cinderella talk is a disservice in my opinion to them and slap in the face to both Duke and Butler!!!!

To me the biggest key to the game, which may have been picked up on, is how the game is called. Everyone is quick to say Duke gets the rebounding edge with Zoubs size but if the refs hold his size against him when someone bounces off him to the floor, by no fault of Zoubs, and he gets into foul trouble, it could make things very interesting. For me personally, I've seen too many championship games in which the refs try to exert their will on the game early and screw it up for both teams or one more than the other. Just something to keep an eye on.

I disagree. I don't think it matters how it's called, the advantage is Duke's. Play without whistles a la the first half of the WVU game? We're huge and have a physical advantage, so I'd be perfectly fine with that. Want to call it tight and have every hand check called a foul? OK, we're deeper and have better FT shooters.

I do love that several folks are picking Butler. It's the smart choice for a TV analyst. Pick Duke and nobody cares. Pick Butler and if you're right, you replay it forever.

[Welcome2DaSlopes]

3 of the 5 picking Butler with Katz wanting to pick Butler. For argument sake we will make him the 4th Butler guys with one guy (Brennan) picking Duke. Have to say, to no one's suprise, many are picking Butler. Again, my issue is that many are picking based on the "Hoosier" them being the backbone of their argument or wish, whatever you may call it, rather than that Butler is a real good team. Butler is a legit top 15 team and all this Cinderella talk is a disservice in my opinion to them and slap in the face to both Duke and Butler!!!!

To me the biggest key to the game, which may have been picked up on, is how the game is called. Everyone is quick to say Duke gets the rebounding edge with Zoubs size but if the refs hold his size against him when someone bounces off him to the floor, by no fault of Zoubs, and he gets into foul trouble, it could make things very interesting. For me personally, I've seen too many championship games in which the refs try to exert their will on the game early and screw it up for both teams or one more than the other. Just something to keep an eye on.

They haven't picked us all year, why start now. Look how far we've gotten with them not picking us.

[NYDukie]

They haven't picked us all year, why start now. Look how far we've gotten with them not picking us.

Agreed!!! Embrace the hate!!!! I like Butler, how they play, the coach and kids but it's Duke's time again!!!

EMBRACE THE HATE!!!!

[Merlindevildog91]

who were the 3 picking Butler? Mike and Mike both picked Duke this morning, as did Jay Bilas, Hubert and Digger. At least this morning's permutation of Digger, which was probably on tape from last night.

[juise]

who were the 3 picking Butler? Mike and Mike both picked Duke this morning, as did Jay Bilas, Hubert and Digger. At least this morning's permutation of Digger, which was probably on tape from last night.

Forde is picking Butler (probably because they needed someone to in this video (http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/10234/video-breaking-down-butler-duke)) and Dana O'Neil is picking Duke. Katz "doesn't think" Butler will win. I don't know if that qualifies as a pick.

Of course, none of the picks matter, but we need something to pass the time, right?

[superdave]

3 of the 5 picking Butler with Katz wanting to pick Butler. For argument sake we will make him the 4th Butler guys with one guy (Brennan) picking Duke. Have to say, to no one's suprise, many are picking Butler. Again, my issue is that many are picking based on the "Hoosier" them being the backbone of their argument or wish, whatever you may call it, rather than that Butler is a real good team. Butler is a legit top 15 team and all this Cinderella talk is a disservice in my opinion to them and slap in the face to both Duke and Butler!!!!

To me the biggest key to the game, which may have been picked up on, is how the game is called. Everyone is quick to say Duke gets the rebounding edge with Zoubs size but if the refs hold his size against him when someone bounces off him to the floor, by no fault of Zoubs, and he gets into foul trouble, it could make things very interesting. For me personally, I've seen too many championship games in which the refs try to exert their will on the game early and screw it up for both teams or one more than the other. Just something to keep an eye on.

Check out Chad Millman on espn insider. His "wise guy" gamblers pick Duke to win but Butler to cover the 7.5 spread in a closer game.

Vegas guys have to be right to get paid. Espn guys get paid regardless...

On a side note, I remember Bilas getting 2/4 in the FF right last year but claiming 3/4 because he had two right in March (Unc, Uconn) and another right in November (MSU). No one ever called him on it even though it was quite a stretch. That's like two 8 year olds adding their age together to get a drivers license...

[NSDukeFan]

Yeah, well, they're probably also worried about Scheyer's legs and convinced that K's failure to develop the bench will come back to kill the team tonight.
I hope the guys don't all of a sudden get tired.;)

I disagree. I don't think it matters how it's called, the advantage is Duke's. Play without whistles a la the first half of the WVU game? We're huge and have a physical advantage, so I'd be perfectly fine with that. Want to call it tight and have every hand check called a foul? OK, we're deeper and have better FT shooters.

I do love that several folks are picking Butler. It's the smart choice for a TV analyst. Pick Duke and nobody cares. Pick Butler and if you're right, you replay it forever.

The only problem is if hand-checking and bumping on the perimeter is allowed and it is called tight inside and Zoubs gets in foul trouble.
I think Zoubs could be the difference if he can stay in the game and give us the extra possessions he has for the past month. I think Butler's D will be difficult to score against and rebound against, but if the best offensive rebounder in the country can get the ball to our shooters off a rebound, it is more difficult to reset the defense and a few threes off rebounds could be the difference in a low scoring game.

[DukeUsul]

I understand that Butler is a good defensive team, but reading some of the posts here and elsewhere, they're apparently some combination of the Steel Curtain and Bill Russell fused into one magical defensive juggernaut.

Yes, they're a good defense, but they're not better than other defenses we faced. The #1 ranked defensive team in the country in FSU, who we beat by 14. The #4 ranked Purdue defense we handled OK. West Virginia was ranked as high as Butler on defense until this past Saturday, when something happened that dropped them 10 spots. GT is #12. Clemson is #15. Wisconsin is #19. VT is #20. We've played against 6 of the top 20 defenses in the country 8 games this year and, and we've averaged 71.5 ppg vs. those top 20 defenses. And oh by the way, we get to play defense, too, and our defense is ranked higher than Butler's.

For all of the talk about how easy of a road we've had vs. how hard of a road Butler's had, we've actually faced much tough competition after the first round, where we notably got a bye and Butler had to play one of the toughest teams they've faced. Don't believe me? Their first round opponent is ranked #37. Since then, they've face #50 Murray St, #4 Cuse, #7 K State, and #23 MSU. Comparatively, Duke's faced #15, #16, #6, and #8.

Then there's Butler's #50 ranked offense. Again, let's go to the numbers. We've faced 4 teams in 6 games with offenses numerically similar to Butler's - Clemson (#44) x2, BC (#47) x2, Arizona State (#53). We've allows a whopping 53 ppg to those offenses.

So, what gives Butler's vaunted defense trouble? Size. Cuse without Onuaku, K State, and MSU were great matchups for Butler because they're all small teams. Cuse with Onuaku only ranks #64 in effective height, far lower without him. K State is #136. MSU is #196. Duke, meanwhile, is #7. Butler has faced a couple of other tall teams in Georgetown and Minnesota. They lost both of those games and gave up 82 and 72 points in doing so.

Yes, I understand they don't play the games on KenPom's hard drive, though for this one, I wish they did. No, I'm not saying it's a foregone conclusion that Duke wins tonight. However, this is pretty darn close to a dream matchup for Duke. They are and should be prohibitive favorites. There may not be another top 8 seed on the other side of the bracket that we'd match up any better with than we do Butler. Seriously. Go look at the bracket and hand pick a team you'd rather be playing. Maybe UNLV.

Well said Genedoc. Let me add something if I may. I keep hearing this statement that Butler is very very good with their hands at forcing turnovers. Well. Hum. According to the stats, they are 72nd in the nation in steals (avg 11.0/game).
http://kenpom.com/tmleaders.php?c=StlRate

Three ACC teams are ahead of them (Clem and FSU way ahead of them). In TOs forced, they are similarly ranked #74 (also with three ACC teams better than they).
http://kenpom.com/factors.php?t=d&s=5

So I'm not so sure they're the TO-machine they're made out to be by the media these last two days.

Considering we're #15 in the country in TOs, I have to say we have the advantage.
http://kenpom.com/factors.php?t=o&s=5

[CDu]

Forde is picking Butler (probably because they needed someone to in this video (http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/10234/video-breaking-down-butler-duke)) and Dana O'Neil is picking Duke. Katz "doesn't think" Butler will win. I don't know if that qualifies as a pick.

No, O'Neill picked Butler, along with Schlabach and Forde. Brennan and Katz picked Duke. Of course, none of these people are experts any more than the rest of us. They're just sports writers who happen to focus on college basketball.

Here's the column, FYI: http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/tournament/2010/columns/story?id=5056999


Of course, none of the picks matter, but we need something to pass the time, right?

Correct. Even the opinions of the real "experts" don't matter. We'll ultimately either win or lose, regardless of what people predict. The predictions are just a "fun" way to draw website hits, stir discussion, and kill time.

The folks that picked Butler are, as someone else pointed out, just being savvy. If they pick Duke, nobody cares (win or lose). If they pick Butler and Butler wins, they can brag about it later.

[whereinthehellami]

Here are some notes from the boxscores on ESPN.


Mack shoots (tourney only) 41% FG, 47% from 3, and 72% FT. Want to make him put it on the floor.


Hayward (tourney only) shoots 48% FG, 32% from 3, and 78% FT. Kid is tough to stop. You don't want him on the line though. Gets there alot and has been solid at 78%.


Howard (tourney only) shoots 37% FG, 0% from 3, and 62% FT. He has struggled in the tourney shooting the ball. He has not even attempted a 3.


Butler has won 5 halves, lost 3 halves, and tied 2 halves. They have been somewhat inconsistent but strong at the end of the games.


Butler has been outrebounded in 4 of their 5 games for an average of -4 per game.


Butler is not a deep team and they have a starter in foul trouble in every tourney game. In 2 of their 5 tourney games they have had 2 starters in foul trouble. Howard has had 4 fouls in 3 games.


Veasley had 9 rebounds against UTEP and 4 steals against MSU. He plays hard and finds ways to impact the game.


Nored was 5-6 in FGs agaisnt Murray State and had 5 steals against Syracuse. Another guy who plays hard and finds ways to impact the game.


Butler had 13 steals against Syracuse and 12 steals against MSU. Duke needs to value the ball and make good decisions on their outlet passes.


Butler had 20 TOs aganst K state and still won. They have dodged some bullets along the way to the finals.


Hayward and Mack are both sophomores and were 2* recruits coming out of HS. This is an awful big stage to have your young, 2 big stars in.

[airowe]

I hope the guys don't all of a sudden get tired.;)


The only problem is if hand-checking and bumping on the perimeter is allowed and it is called tight inside and Zoubs gets in foul trouble.
I think Zoubs could be the difference if he can stay in the game and give us the extra possessions he has for the past month. I think Butler's D will be difficult to score against and rebound against, but if the best offensive rebounder in the country can get the ball to our shooters off a rebound, it is more difficult to reset the defense and a few threes off rebounds could be the difference in a low scoring game.

We are much better equipped to deal with the loss of Zoubs than they are to deal with the loss of Howard, who is just as, if not, worse at staying out of foul trouble. If Zoubs is catching the quick whistle, than Howard will be too. I'll take our chances with that scenario.

[Chitowndevil]

For all of the talk about how easy of a road we've had vs. how hard of a road Butler's had, we've actually faced much tough competition after the first round, where we notably got a bye and Butler had to play one of the toughest teams they've faced. Don't believe me? Their first round opponent is ranked #37. Since then, they've face #50 Murray St, #4 Cuse, #7 K State, and #23 MSU. Comparatively, Duke's faced #15, #16, #6, and #8.


Be very careful with this kind of analysis. Ken Pomeroy updates his rankings after each game, so Duke's opponents' rankings can actually benefit from having played Duke ex-post, even in a loss. I'm not completely sure about this (I have the data on a different computer) but I think Cal and Baylor are actually rated *higher* now than before the tournament. I'm pretty sure Baylor moved ahead of KState after Saturday's games.

[MChambers]

Well said Genedoc. Let me add something if I may. I keep hearing this statement that Butler is very very good with their hands at forcing turnovers. Well. Hum. According to the stats, they are 72nd in the nation in steals (avg 11.0/game).
http://kenpom.com/tmleaders.php?c=StlRate

Three ACC teams are ahead of them (Clem and FSU way ahead of them). In TOs forced, they are similarly ranked #74 (also with three ACC teams better than they).
http://kenpom.com/factors.php?t=d&s=5

So I'm not so sure they're the TO-machine they're made out to be by the media these last two days.

Considering we're #15 in the country in TOs, I have to say we have the advantage.
http://kenpom.com/factors.php?t=o&s=5

Butler is 72nd, but because they get steals on 11% of possessions, not 11 a game. We get steals on 10%. Not a huge disparity. Neither team turns it over much, and we actually force slightly more turnovers.

[NSDukeFan]

We are much better equipped to deal with the loss of Zoubs than they are to deal with the loss of Howard, who is just as, if not, worse at staying out of foul trouble. If Zoubs is catching the quick whistle, than Howard will be too. I'll take our chances with that scenario.

I realize we have better depth inside than Butler, but I feel that Zoubs has become such an important part of our offense that I would rather have both he and Howard in the game, than both of them in foul trouble.

[Genedoc]

Be very careful with this kind of analysis. Ken Pomeroy updates his rankings after each game, so Duke's opponents' rankings can actually benefit from having played Duke ex-post, even in a loss. I'm not completely sure about this (I have the data on a different computer) but I think Cal and Baylor are actually rated *higher* now than before the tournament. I'm pretty sure Baylor moved ahead of KState after Saturday's games.

This is true, but one game usually doesn't dramatically alter the standings at this point, maybe a few places here or there. West Virginia dropped further than most based in small part on the savagery of the beating. Cal was similarly ranked before they played Duke. So were Baylor and Purdue. Still, your point is valid, and taken.

[CDu]

Be very careful with this kind of analysis. Ken Pomeroy updates his rankings after each game, so Duke's opponents' rankings can actually benefit from having played Duke ex-post, even in a loss. I'm not completely sure about this (I have the data on a different computer) but I think Cal and Baylor are actually rated *higher* now than before the tournament. I'm pretty sure Baylor moved ahead of KState after Saturday's games.

Actually, I think those rankings are pretty close to where the teams were before we played them. I know that Cal was either #14 or #15 when we played them, and I know that Baylor and WVU were top-10 before we played them. So while the rankings may have varied a by position or two, our opponents didn't get a massive bump up by facing us. If anything, WVU took a hit thanks to the beating we gave them.

[Genedoc]

I realize we have better depth inside than Butler, but I feel that Zoubs has become such an important part of our offense that I would rather have both he and Howard in the game, than both of them in foul trouble.
Zoubek is going to get at least one over the back call in this game. They're too good of a defensive rebounding team to not get at least one call.

We're not going to shoot like we did on Saturday, and we're unlikely to offensively rebound as well as we have all tourney because they're a very good d rebounding team. That said, we don't have to play perfect to win, we just have to play our game, especially at the defensive end. I don't care if we win 45-40 and it's one of the most boring games in history. We should be able to rely on our defense regardless of what happens when we have the ball.

A 10-12 point lead in this game is going to be like a 16-20 point lead most games.

[MChambers]

I realize we have better depth inside than Butler, but I feel that Zoubs has become such an important part of our offense that I would rather have both he and Howard in the game, than both of them in foul trouble.

Sad to report that my research indicates that Howard is pretty good at drawing fouls. In fact, in two of Butler's losses to big teams (Minnesota and Georgetown), he shot quite a few free throws. Of course, Butler still both of those games

[CDu]

Butler is 72nd, but because they get steals on 11% of possessions, not 11 a game. We get steals on 10%. Not a huge disparity. Neither team turns it over much, and we actually force slightly more turnovers.

DukeUsal's point is still accurate. Baylor faced two of the worst in the tournament in terms of valuing the ball in Syracuse (#235) and MSU (#221), so it's not surprising that those two teams coughed it up a lot in the game against Butler. Against a KSU team that is also pretty poor at valuing the ball (#163), they turned it over much more than KSU. So Butler's ability to turn teams over has probably been inflated by its recent opponents. By contrast, we are one of the best in the country (#15) at not turning it over. So as both you and DukeUsal suggest, it's not that likely that Butler forces a ton of turnovers on us.

[CDu]

Zoubek is going to get at least one over the back call in this game. They're too good of a defensive rebounding team to not get at least one call.

We're not going to shoot like we did on Saturday, and we're unlikely to offensively rebound as well as we have all tourney because they're a very good d rebounding team. That said, we don't have to play perfect to win, we just have to play our game, especially at the defensive end. I don't care if we win 45-40 and it's one of the most boring games in history. We should be able to rely on our defense regardless of what happens when we have the ball.

A 10-12 point lead in this game is going to be like a 16-20 point lead most games.

Right. This is the thing. I don't think we have to be a juggernaut offensively, because I don't think Butler is going to light us up on the other end. If we DO dominate the offensive glass, I think we beat them handily. But even if we don't, I don't think Butler has the firepower to get away from us.

They are a VERY good team, and they can certainly win if they shoot well, keep us off the glass, and force us to miss shots. But if they struggle to hit shots or we either hit our shots or get offensive rebounds, it could very well be a long night for them.

[Chitowndevil]

Well said Genedoc. Let me add something if I may. I keep hearing this statement that Butler is very very good with their hands at forcing turnovers. Well. Hum. According to the stats, they are 72nd in the nation in steals (avg 11.0/game).

Just a minor correction (sorry, I can't help it, I teach stats for a living!). Pomeroy's number means that (roughly) Butler gets a steal on 11% of its opponents' possessions. They average 8.8 steals per game as a team.

The comments about generating steals are about Bulter's perimeter players. Again looking at Pomeroy's stats, Butler's Ronald Nored steals the ball on 3.6% of defensive possessions they play, 85th among D1 players. Mack's individual steal rate is 2.7% (376th), while Veasley's is 2.2%. So Butler's 3 perimeter starters are in fact very adept at generating steals. For comparison, Jon Scheyer leads Duke with a 2.6% individual steal rate (420th).

Of course, Scheyer, Smith, and Singler ALL rank in the top 200 players in the country in individual turnover %. All three turn the ball over on fewer than 13.5% of offensive possessions used. (For comparison, Nored turns the ball over on 25.4% of possessions he uses.) So this may be a strength vs. strength kind of thing.

[SoCalDukeFan]

We will be tight and playing not to lose. I expect K and staff to work on that.

Butler will be both loose and focused.

The crowd will be 90/10 Butler.

BTW I heard that the Butler players went to classes today. Which is both pretty classy and something that might get their minds off the game, which I think is good for them.

SoCal

[Welcome2DaSlopes]

This is the BIGGIEST GAME OF our current players Career.

[Genedoc]

Right. This is the thing. I don't think we have to be a juggernaut offensively, because I don't think Butler is going to light us up on the other end. If we DO dominate the offensive glass, I think we beat them handily. But even if we don't, I don't think Butler has the firepower to get away from us.

They are a VERY good team, and they can certainly win if they shoot well, keep us off the glass, and force us to miss shots. But if they struggle to hit shots or we either hit our shots or get offensive rebounds, it could very well be a long night for them.

Agreed. If we offensively rebound like we have up until this point - which I do not expect, but would be a pleasant surprise - we'll pound them. Their #1 priority must be defensive rebounding.

I'm expecting us to shoot 40%, offensively rebound about half as well as we have been, and rely on our defense to provide the 6-9 point margin I expect. IF we get great shooting OR if they can't keep us off the glass, Katy bar the door.

[Troublemaker]

Well said Genedoc. Let me add something if I may. I keep hearing this statement that Butler is very very good with their hands at forcing turnovers. Well. Hum. According to the stats, they are 72nd in the nation in steals (avg 11.0/game).
http://kenpom.com/tmleaders.php?c=StlRate

Three ACC teams are ahead of them (Clem and FSU way ahead of them). In TOs forced, they are similarly ranked #74 (also with three ACC teams better than they).
http://kenpom.com/factors.php?t=d&s=5

So I'm not so sure they're the TO-machine they're made out to be by the media these last two days.

Considering we're #15 in the country in TOs, I have to say we have the advantage.
http://kenpom.com/factors.php?t=o&s=5

Well, "quick hands" don't necessarily have to result in turnovers to be effective. Just by placing the offensive player in discomfort where he is concerned about the hands and/or by bothering the shot and getting said hands in the face of the shooter, the hands are doing their job. Still, I think Butler is pretty darn good at getting turnovers, and if you watch yesterday's press conferences, it was actually our coaches and players that complimented the Bulldogs on their "active hands" over and over again, in succession, and commented on how we have to be strong with the ball. Duke respects Butler's hands.

I've enjoyed reading Genedoc's posts in this thread and I respect that Duke has played against some very good defenses this season. But I think Butler's defense is indeed nasty and might be the best we've encountered this season. Two things:

(1) As Duke fans, we understand that the stats, as good as they look for us, can't completely capture how good a team Duke currently is because we've improved a lot throughout the season, including even in the past week or two and Pomeroy's rankings, as far as I know, weigh early-season games as much as late-season games. Well, I think the Bulldogs likewise are probably even better than their stats suggest right now. As Pomeroy points out here (http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1059), Butler has held its past 3 opponents to their second-worst offensive game of the season. Like I said, nasty.

(2) Jim Boeheim told Jay Bilas (http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/blog?name=bilas_jay&id=5037892) (it's an ESPN Insider blog, so not everyone will have access) that Butler has the best defensive backcourt he's faced in the past decade. Now, Boeheim may be be guilty of bias since he lost to them, but I think Butler will definitely give us some trouble on the perimeter, which is why protecting the ball and winning the offensive rebounding battle will be so important. Duke's offense has been really outstanding recently, though. The Big 3 have played so well off each other, and we seem to be shooting the ball well, and of course, the offensive rebounding... I don't concede that we will lose the battle of our offense against their defense, but I caution that their defense really is pretty awesome or has developed into something pretty awesome.

[Genedoc]

Well, "quick hands" don't necessarily have to result in turnovers to be effective. Just by placing the offensive player in discomfort where he is concerned about the hands and/or by bothering the shot and getting said hands in the face of the shooter, the hands are doing their job. Still, I think Butler is pretty darn good at getting turnovers, and if you watch yesterday's press conferences, it was actually our coaches and players that complimented the Bulldogs on their "active hands" over and over again, in succession, and commented on how we have to be strong with the ball. Duke respects Butler's hands.

I've enjoyed reading Genedoc's posts in this thread and I respect that Duke has played against some very good defenses this season. But I think Butler's defense is indeed nasty and might be the best we've encountered this season. Two things:

(1) As Duke fans, we understand that the stats, as good as they look for us, can't completely capture how good a team Duke currently is because we've improved a lot throughout the season, including even in the past week or two and Pomeroy's rankings, as far as I know, weigh early-season games as much as late-season games. Well, I think the Bulldogs likewise are probably even better than their stats suggest right now. As Pomeroy points out here (http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1059), Butler has held its past 3 opponents to their second-worst offensive game of the season. Like I said, nasty.

(2) Jim Boeheim told Jay Bilas (http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/blog?name=bilas_jay&id=5037892) (it's an ESPN Insider blog, so not everyone will have access) that Butler has the best defensive backcourt he's faced in the past decade. Now, Boeheim may be be guilty of bias since he lost to them, but I think Butler will definitely give us some trouble on the perimeter, which is why protecting the ball and winning the offensive rebounding battle will be so important. Duke's offense has been really outstanding recently, though. The Big 3 have played so well off each other, and we seem to be shooting the ball well, and of course, the offensive rebounding... I don't concede that we will lose the battle of our offense against their defense, but I caution that their defense really is pretty awesome or has developed into something pretty awesome.

I don't disagree with any of this, and I'm not arguing as much as passing the time. However awesome Butler's D is, we get to play defense, too, and we're pretty good at it ourselves.

Let's say that Butler defends us as well as they've defended anyone else this tourney, and we're held to our second worst offensive game of the season. Our low is 57, in a game we pretty handily won vs. UVa a month ago. Our second lowest other than that is 60, so let's say Butler holds us to 59 - right in between the two. Against defenses not nearly as highly rated as ours over the last 4 games, Butler has averaged 58 points. So on defense, they have to be as good as they have been against a higher rated offense than they've seen thus far, AND be better offensively vs. a higher rated defense than any they've seen. Possible? Certainly. But I love our chances, and I'm pretty sure most coaches, if forced to pick a team to coach tonight with their lives on the line, would pick Duke.

Both the 57 pt. game vs. UVa and the 60 point game vs. Clemson, we won by double digits. We're as comfortable playing games in the 50-60 point range as they are, which isn't the case for most of their opponents. We can beat them at their game, which is exceedingly rare for an NC match-up.

[DevilOfATime]

I am so nerveous about tonight game. I think its going to be a hard fought game but I think Duke will win. I am growing to Hate Butler living in Indiana and I know its a local school and its in Indy. But I am avoiding all local news but only for the weather. So sick of getting Butler rammed down my throat. I know good story and all. Don't get me even started what the lovely local paper Indy Star paper did a few days ago. Luckily they got calls and they pulled their paper and redone them.

But If Butler wins, I will probably need to move. I think Duke will win tonight. Butler is no cupcake team.

[rotogod00]

howard has been cleared to play tonite:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/tournament/2010/news/story?id=5057338

[Welcome2DaSlopes]

howard has been cleared to play tonite:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/tournament/2010/news/story?id=5057338

How effective is the real question, This is the biggiest game of his basketball career, I was pretty sure he was going to play.

[superdave]

How effective is the real question, This is the biggiest game of his basketball career, I was pretty sure he was going to play.

Howard has been in so much foul trouble the past 3-4 games that it's hard to predict his performance, concussion or not.

[Kewlswim]

We will be tight and playing not to lose. I expect K and staff to work on that.

Butler will be both loose and focused.

The crowd will be 90/10 Butler.

BTW I heard that the Butler players went to classes today. Which is both pretty classy and something that might get their minds off the game, which I think is good for them.

SoCal

Hi SoCal,

Sure, Duke could be tight. However, they could have been tight against WVU and they weren't. I think/feel Duke is a focused team with a chip on its shoulder. Those types of teams, in my experience, are usually not tight, but ready to get at it.

I've come to the conclusion we are hyper sensitive as a fan base because of the Duke hate, the 1999 debacle, and the recent success (or lack there of) in the NCAA tournament. Coach K has said this team is different from those recent teams. Coach K even looks different, he looks fresh and ready for action.

Anything can happen. I am worried too, but somehow this time feels really different. I don't think any of those guys are out partying like the 1999 team was. I don't think this team is thinking about its draft position in the NBA. This team is looking for a victory on Monday night and anything less will be a huge disappointment.

Call it a feeling, nothing else, but I feel one of our role players will come up really big tonight. Will it be Dre? Ryan? MP2?

I wonder how Czyz feels having stepped away from this? He could have maybe played in a FF game, maybe even had a super dunk in the championship game...sigh.

GO DUKE!

[jdj4duke]

Anything can happen. We are a good team. Focused. Great coach. I am nervous as I am before every game. Saying all of that, I think it's

Duke. Big.

[JayBean]

One thing I have not heard mentioned by the talking heads is that Duke was on the opposite side of this David vs Goliath thing back in 1991 with UNLV. We've also seen how fortunes can turn in 1999. The point is that Coach K knows that anything can happen and this team responds to his messages very well.

Butler could win. But it won't be because of overconfidence. They will have to earn it against a very intelligent and driven Duke team.

I like our chances.

[cato]

One thing I have not heard mentioned by the talking heads is that Duke was on the opposite side of this David vs Goliath thing back in 1991 with UNLV.

I'm hoping that Butler takes the cues from Duke's 1990 turn as David, not the one a year later.

[Genedoc]

I'm hoping that Butler takes the cues from Duke's 1990 turn as David, not the one a year later.
Jinx - I was about to post the exact same thing. And while I certainly don't expect it to be UNLV/Duke 1990, I think there's about a 10% chance it could be. Certainly hoping for it.

[Troublemaker]

I don't disagree with any of this, and I'm not arguing as much as passing the time. However awesome Butler's D is, we get to play defense, too, and we're pretty good at it ourselves.

Let's say that Butler defends us as well as they've defended anyone else this tourney, and we're held to our second worst offensive game of the season. Our low is 57, in a game we pretty handily won vs. UVa a month ago. Our second lowest other than that is 60, so let's say Butler holds us to 59 - right in between the two. Against defenses not nearly as highly rated as ours over the last 4 games, Butler has averaged 58 points. So on defense, they have to be as good as they have been against a higher rated offense than they've seen thus far, AND be better offensively vs. a higher rated defense than any they've seen. Possible? Certainly. But I love our chances, and I'm pretty sure most coaches, if forced to pick a team to coach tonight with their lives on the line, would pick Duke.

Both the 57 pt. game vs. UVa and the 60 point game vs. Clemson, we won by double digits. We're as comfortable playing games in the 50-60 point range as they are, which isn't the case for most of their opponents. We can beat them at their game, which is exceedingly rare for an NC match-up.

Oh, I hear you. I don't disagree with anything you've written, either. I've just noticed that Duke has fared well this season when I provide a "devil's advocate" slant on things pre-game, so I'm going to try to continue along the same path.

As far as Butler's offense is concerned, I think they're a pretty good matchup for us, but I think there are a couple of areas where they can give us (or any team) trouble. First, and Bilas has pointed this out before, Butler is a really good dribble-drive team and they draw a lot of fouls that way. They do have the elements in place to spread us out and attack us off the dribble, and while we have gotten better at defending that plan of attack as the season has progressed, our vulnerability there is still in the back of mind. We've got to contain without fouling. Secondly, I'm wary of their ball screens. I noticed someone above pointed out that Butler didn't use many ball screens against MSU. I wouldn't draw too many conclusions from that one game since matchups can differ so much from game to game. MSU switches screens at the 5 with more ease than Duke since Green, Morgan, and Roe are more agile than Z. Butler enjoys running ball screens to initiate offense, and they have an excellent screener in Howard, and if I were Brad Stevens, I know I'd try to get Z involved in ball screen situations. While Z has moved better this season, Duke could be vulnerable there to both physical and communication breakdowns, especially going against guards that can turn the corner, good screeners, and an overall well-coached, intelligent team.

[blueprofessor]

link: http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1059

Hayward plays the 5 a good deal and draws Zoubek outside?
Very interesting comments, including Pomeroy's assertion Duke's points per possession will be lower....

Best regards---Blueprofessor:)

[CDu]

link: http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1059

Hayward plays the 5 a good deal and draws Zoubek outside?
Very interesting comments, including Pomeroy's assertion Duke's points per possession will be lower....

Best regards---Blueprofessor:)

To be fair, it's not that bold an assertion to suggest that our points per possession will come down from 1.4. That was an absurd performance in the Final Four, and our season average is around 1.2. Combine that with the fact that we're playing the third-best defensive team we've faced this year, and we should expect to have more trouble scoring than we did against WVU.

But it is an interesting discussion, and highlights some key points that have been discussed in this thread as well.

One thing I'll disagree with John's idea that if Butler could score just enough against Syracuse and KSU then they should be able to score enough against us. We're better both offensively and defensively than either of those two teams. Not saying that Butler can't beat us. Just saying that the logic doesn't hold there.

[KyDevilinIL]

Good grief. A few hours ago I checked this thread and came away with the impression that Butler was a dream matchup for Duke. Now I read this thread and suddenly it seems like a nightmare. I don't know what to think.

I feel a messy mix of unbridled excitement and total horror about tonight. I dunno if I can make it 2 1/2 more hours.

[blueprofessor]

To be fair, it's not that bold an assertion to suggest that our points per possession will come down from 1.4. That was an absurd performance in the Final Four, and our season average is around 1.2. Combine that with the fact that we're playing the third-best defensive team we've faced this year, and we should expect to have more trouble scoring than we did against WVU.

But it is an interesting discussion, and highlights some key points that have been discussed in this thread as well.

One thing I'll disagree with John's idea that if Butler could score just enough against Syracuse and KSU then they should be able to score enough against us. We're better both offensively and defensively than either of those two teams. Not saying that Butler can't beat us. Just saying that the logic doesn't hold there.

Duke has averaged 60 possessions a game in the tourney and Butler has averaged 62. Duke --WVU was one of the 2 slowest tempo games in the tourney.Can Duke, the slower tempo team, dictate the pace?

Prediction of a 58 possessions game and low scoring....

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1059

Best regards--Blueprofessor:)

[Genedoc]

Good grief. A few hours ago I checked this thread and came away with the impression that Butler was a dream matchup for Duke. Now I read this thread and suddenly it seems like a nightmare. I don't know what to think.

I feel a messy mix of unbridled excitement and total horror about tonight. I dunno if I can make it 2 1/2 more hours.

Hehe...It's the NC game. We're playing a very good team that's playing very well right now and can beat us. There's no contortion of the data that indicates they're a nightmare matchup for us. We've faced our nightmare matchup. It was Baylor. In all seriousness, we could not honestly ask to face a team we match up better with for a National Championship.

Good matchup <> automatic win, and that's what folks have been nervously chattering about, myself included.

[CDu]

Good grief. A few hours ago I checked this thread and came away with the impression that Butler was a dream matchup for Duke. Now I read this thread and suddenly it seems like a nightmare. I don't know what to think.

I feel a messy mix of unbridled excitement and total horror about tonight. I dunno if I can make it 2 1/2 more hours.

There's no such thing as a dream matchup in the NCAA championship game. But this is probably the best matchup we could have hoped for. Butler is a lot like Purdue but with less shotblocking, more defensive rebounding, and slightly more scoring balance.

Does that mean we can't lose? Absolutely not. Butler is still a very good team. And it's possible that they can put two halves together like Purdue did in the first half. We should win, but Butler has a chance.

Their strength defensively is a direct foil to our strength offensively. I think that whoever wins that matchup will win the game.

[Spy]

Good grief. A few hours ago I checked this thread and came away with the impression that Butler was a dream matchup for Duke. Now I read this thread and suddenly it seems like a nightmare. I don't know what to think.

I feel a messy mix of unbridled excitement and total horror about tonight. I dunno if I can make it 2 1/2 more hours.

Me too, man. In the days before the game, you know, we're confident, we feel good about the game, we feel like the team is ready, but once gametime rolls around, you get nervous. You start to question what you figured out before. It is just something that comes with huge games. It's great, it just means that you really care about this team.

[Eckster]

Me too, man. In the days before the game, you know, we're confident, we feel good about the game, we feel like the team is ready, but once gametime rolls around, you get nervous. You start to question what you figured out before. It is just something that comes with huge games. It's great, it just means that you really care about this team.

Forget about it. At this point, drink a beer and stop analyzing it. Duke's gonna win. There, I said it. Confidence!

[dukepsy1963]

Anyone know how K keeps the players (team) focused, confident, and reasonably relaxed just before an important game like this? What does he say/do, etc.?

[Spy]

If Zoubs can get 3 offensive rebounds tonight, he will set the Duke season record with 139.

[mgtr]

If Zoubs can get 3 offensive rebounds tonight, he will set the Duke season record with 139.

Interesting factoid. Good to mention for any who are still negative on Zoubs (if any).

[hurley1]

first, let me commend the duke fans on here for always displaying the highest level of character and class.........duke fans are a special group.......if any other team had what duke has, they would never shut up bragging, but, you guys carry yourself with extreme class and character at all times.........very impressive........now, on to the game.........i am never one to count a victory before the last second ticks off of the clock, however, we have a situation here that is almost too easy to predict.......in order to win a high level game such as this one there must be certain factors that fall into place for the victor.......as i look at butler, i just don't see any way that the stars will line up for them.......they are outmatched at every part of this game.......duke will own the paint at both ends........duke will have great open shots from 3 point land........duke has 5 different guys to guard and shut down butler's top scorer.......or any combination of these 5...duke can have a marginal night scoring and still put up many more points than butler........the most entertaining matchup tonite will be nolan against the mack kid.......both are exceptional.......this will be a fun individual matchup to watch.........other than that, not too much to predict......i see no way that cinderella survives, i believe she will get slaughtered........and i know one thing for sure........duke will not beat duke, butler will have to beat duke in order to win......just don't see any way to pull that off for butler.......i am an avid duke fan and i am very relaxed waiting for this game to start......i see no way we can lose tonight.......not being cocky, just calling it as i see it.......go duke..........

[hq2]

I think if this were any other game besides the NC, we would be thinking we would win. Given our uneven performance in NC games over the years, however, most of us are still leery about predicting a Duke W. However, after seeing Butler play against Michigan State, I'd say they're gonna have to play better than that to beat us. We just need to keep balanced offense, and not just crank 3s; they do have good perimeter D, and we have to remember that we're the bigger team (so was Goliath, remember?), so we just need to keep calm, play our game, and not rush or put up bad shots, and we should be O.K.

[Welcome2DaSlopes]

If Zoubs can get 3 offensive rebounds tonight, he will set the Duke season record with 139.

Proud of that guy, really am.

[hurley1]

If Zoubs can get 3 offensive rebounds tonight, he will set the Duke season record with 139.


you can go ahead and put it in the books.......zoo will have his most impressive game ever tonight........watch and see........

[Eckster]

I am totally confident. There seems to be a general fear on the board of saying Duke's gonna win lest the whole thing be jinxed but you know what, I do think we've got a good shot and feel like my 14 year old son who opted not to buy a final four t-shirt in favor of waiting for the next t-shirt ;), was making the right decision. Go Duke!

[NF Devil]

This is my first post! I think coach K will have the boys ready for anything. I thought Purdue and Baylor were both good defensively. My concern is with the refs. One game they let u play, the next they call everything. I have a feeling the refs will feel sorry for Butler and keep them in the game until Duke can pull ahead for good. I also wonder how Howard can bang with with big Z all game with a so called mild concussion

[Eckster]

Also, Butler's been portrayed as a Cinderella but is hardly as such. They've got real talent, top 20 record and have a shot of winning tonight. Still...

[grateful_duke]

posts in epic thread. GO DUKE!!!! CAN'T WAIT!!!!

[slower]

you can go ahead and put it in the books.......zoo will have his most impressive game ever tonight........watch and see........

I still don't understand why people write stuff like this, ESPECIALLY before the biggest game of the season. Glad that you're so sure, but stop messing with karma. ;)

[_Gary]

I don't know whether people are just trolling and trying to create a negative mojo for this team via woofing, or if some fans really are that overconfident. Either way I want to say emphatically that it's a horrible thing to count those chickens... errr... championships before they hatch! I woofed like a madman in '99 and I've never forgiven myself for it. Butler is a good team and while I do think we match up very well, but that's as far as I'm willing to go.

[MarkD83]

Its much more fun to read this thread than the John Wall thread last year.

[Greg_Newton]

But Brian Zoubek outbeards Matt Howard by a factor of at least 100 to 1. If the game comes down to a beard-off, it won't even be close.

http://sports.chronicleblogs.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/zoubek-300x180.jpg http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2010/0405/pg2_a_howardmustache_300.jpg

[Welcome2DaSlopes]

But Brian Zoubek outbeards Matt Howard by a factor of at least 100 to 1. If the game comes down to a beard-off, it won't even be close.

http://sports.chronicleblogs.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/zoubek-300x180.jpg http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2010/0405/pg2_a_howardmustache_300.jpg

NO question, The force of the beard is too strong.

[dustin8131]

I feel really good about our chances tonight but when I was at SAMs today they were out of blue powerade and for some reason I was thinking please don't let this be a bad sign.

Let's go duke
bring home number 4 baby

[dukemsu]

Time to go out and get it done. I cannot wait.

Many Spartans are converted Devils tonight-both off the shared hatred for the Heels and the bonding in line at Lucas Oil on Saturday. Not that Duke needs it, but there will be some additional backing from some (admittedly, not all) of Spartan Nation.

If Duke can be strong with the basketball and avoid the slaps that turn into steals from the Butler guards, things will be fine.

LGD. Time to win #4.

dukemsu

[KyDevilinIL]

Anyone else in the building? Curious about your immediate impression of the vibe. I just walked in. Not many in here so early, of course, but the ones who are here are Butler fans. And it's going to get a lot worse in the next couple of hours. No surprise, of course.

It seems many on the board don't give too much weight to the crowd factor, but I'm overcome by the feeling that it could be an issue.

Starting to get super nervous now.

[dukelifer]

Also, Butler's been portrayed as a Cinderella but is hardly as such. They've got real talent, top 20 record and have a shot of winning tonight. Still...

This year, Duke and Butler are very similar. Both programs were highly regarded early in the season, play very good team defense- have good outside shooting- have limited depth- make few mistakes and can often win even when not playing their best- but no one was expecting a national championship run from either team- sweet sixteen maybe, elite eight perhaps. But here they both are - a few hours from a possible championship. DBR folks know very well this is not a typical Duke team- but almost everyone- even the haters- can appreciate their heart and grit. Bultler fans are shocked their team has survived good team after good team- but Butler is not feeling the pressure because this is unexpected- a magical run. But in many ways- the same is true for Duke. Both teams have a good shot at winning. Duke is bigger and Bulter is better pressuring the ball. This will be about who wants it more and who can exploit the other with their advantage. Bulter will have 60,000 fans around them and that will keep them pumped- or that could add pressure they have not felt before. Duke will be playing in the biggest road game of the season- but probably out of ear shot of the expletives. It will be a very interesting game to watch.

[Danke Shane]

Did anyone else feel that there were a lot of quick whistles in the WV game on Duke while positioning and/or going for rebounds? I mean, these weren't blatant over-the-backs, it was like Zoubek's arm touched the WV player's simultaneously and it was an instant whistle. I just pray that tonight they don't see Z going for a loose ball and instantly call fouls on incidental contact. :(

[hurley1]

Eh, it's easy to say they were overconfident in retrospect, but that is selling the winning teams short. Many of the arguments in this thread against us being too confident are centered on K, but he was the coach in 1999, wasn't he? That year UConn was the 2nd best team in the country and the gap between us was overstated. They came in with a great game plan and took us out; it's not an unexpected consequence of a one and done tournament.

i think uconn was the best team in the country in 1999........they had more strength inside and a much deeper bench than we did.......tonight is much different.......btw, i was also very relaxed against west va.........i knew going in that they had nothing to use to beat us.......the 20 point win didn't surprise me one bit.........tonight will be about the same margin........watch and see........

[dukemsu]

Did anyone else feel that there were a lot of quick whistles in the WV game on Duke while positioning and/or going for rebounds? I mean, these weren't blatant over-the-backs, it was like Zoubek's arm touched the WV player's simultaneously and it was an instant whistle. I just pray that tonight they don't see Z going for a loose ball and instantly call fouls on incidental contact. :(

Based on the MSU/Butler game, that's not what I'm worried about. What worries me aren't the fouls that Duke will get called for, it's the reaching, holding, slapping, and perimeter body-checking that won't get called on Butler. Then again, it's a different crew, who may officiate the game by completely different rules.

dukemsu

[Faison1]

This will be a tough game. Butler has beaten what I considered to be one of the top teams in the tournament.....KSU. If they can beat them, they can beat anybody.....so our boys better bring their A game.

That being said, I know we will play hard, and that's all I can ask.

I better put a lid on it for the next hour and 45 minutes, because I'm ready to suit up right now!!!!! Gametime, Baby!

[Angel]

Butler has to slow or stop at least two of Duke's big three, plus get a big game out of Hayward. I don't think they will.

Duke is on a roll....

Prediction...Duke 66 Butler 54

MVP....Smith

[grossbus]

this is as difficult a wait for tip off as i can remember. egad!

[west_coast_devil]

Man, I cannot focus at work today... it's like my childhood ADD...SQUIRREL!!!...has come back. I'm shutting off my computer, going home, and getting ready for tonights game. GO DUKE!

[lotusland]

Holy crap - just went to the site and the game-time is not listed for the championship and it's lessthan 2-hours to tip-off. Is it possible that CBS will not be streaming the game?:eek:

[Genedoc]

Did anyone else feel that there were a lot of quick whistles in the WV game on Duke while positioning and/or going for rebounds? I mean, these weren't blatant over-the-backs, it was like Zoubek's arm touched the WV player's simultaneously and it was an instant whistle. I just pray that tonight they don't see Z going for a loose ball and instantly call fouls on incidental contact. :(

For a brief stretch in the second half, perhaps. But for most of the first half, felony assault was required for a whistle of any sort.

[dukelifer]

i think uconn was the best team in the country in 1999........they had more strength inside and a much deeper bench than we did.......tonight is much different.......btw, i was also very relaxed against west va.........i knew going in that they had nothing to use to beat us.......the 20 point win didn't surprise me one bit.........tonight will be about the same margin........watch and see........

You probably mean 2004. Duke had Brand in the middle in 1999. No one stronger than that- at least that year.